Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy

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Updated November 30, 2023
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
U.S. policy toward Central America has been a subject of
flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families
significant debate and oversight over the past decade as
seek reunification and those who leave their communities
Congress has sought to address the underlying factors
serve as examples for, and share their experiences and
driving migration from the region to the United States.
resources with, those who remain behind.
Recent Trends
Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Encounters with
According to a model developed at the University of Texas
Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at
at Austin, an average of 407,000 people left the Northern
the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2023
Triangle of Central America (see Figure 1) annually from
FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound for the United
States. Flows have varied from year to year, with an
estimated 692,000 people leaving the region in FY2019,
followed by 113,000 in FY2020, and 521,000 in FY2021.
Some surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential
migrants had postponed their plans in the midst of the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but
intended to undertake their journeys once governments
lifted cross-border travel restrictions.
Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America

Sources: U.S. Border Patrol documents and data portal.
Note: Figures for FY2020-FY2023 include Title 42 public health
expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in the Northern
Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of
a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme
inequality and widespread poverty. Although market-
oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s
produced greater macroeconomic stability, moderate
economic gains have not translated into improved living
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
conditions for many in the region. Analysts expect
working-age populations in the Northern Triangle will
In FY2023, U.S. Border Patrol encountered more than
continue to grow over the next two decades, since
447,000 foreign nationals from the Northern Triangle
approximately 44% of Guatemalans, 42% of Hondurans,
crossing the U.S. Southwest border between ports of entry,
and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of 20. Without
including 213,000 Guatemalans; 181,000 Hondurans; and
improved job creation, those entering the workforce may
53,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). Of those encountered,
have to choose between pursuing limited, precarious
the Border Patrol placed 309,000 into removal proceedings
employment opportunities in the unregulated informal
under Title 8 of the U.S. Code, where they could potentially
sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere.
seek asylum or related relief, and expelled 138,000 from the
United States under Title 42 for public health reasons.
Natural Disasters
About 40% of these enforcement encounters involved
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
single adults, 39% involved individuals traveling with
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
family members, and 21% involved unaccompanied minors.
indicate that extreme warm temperatures have increased in
Central America since the mid-20th century, and portions of
Root Causes
the region have struggled with a series of prolonged
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
droughts since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop
socioeconomic and security conditions—exacerbated by
losses, some rural communities have experienced declining
natural disasters and poor governance—appear to be the
employment opportunities in the coffee sector, which
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
typically provides a crucial source of seasonal income for
migrants and asylum-seekers. Some research suggests such
more than 1 million families in the Northern Triangle.
https://crsreports.congress.gov

Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
Some rural families already had been selling off land and
migration in North and Central America. The strategy calls
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes
for a surge of humanitarian assistance to alleviate
Eta and Iota struck the region in 2020. Those crises
conditions in the region; messaging campaigns to deter
contributed to gross domestic product (GDP) contractions
irregular migration; support for partner governments’
of 9.0% in Honduras, 7.9% in El Salvador, and 1.8% in
efforts to manage their borders, provide protection to
Guatemala in 2020. According to the World Food Program,
vulnerable populations, and reintegrate returned migrants;
the number of food insecure people in the Northern
and expanded access to legal migration and protection
Triangle nearly tripled from 2.2 million in 2019 to about 6.4
pathways in the United States and third countries. In
million in late 2021; an estimated 5.5 million Guatemalans
accordance with the strategy, the Administration allocated
and Hondurans were food insecure as of late 2023. A World
$216.3 million of humanitarian assistance to address the
Food Program internet survey of the region found that
needs of vulnerable populations in Central America in
individuals experiencing moderate or severe hunger were
FY2022 and $139.9 million for those purposes in FY2023.
two to three times more likely to be making concrete
It also issued nearly 19,000 temporary worker (H-2A and
preparations to migrate than those who were not.
H-2B) visas to nationals from the Northern Triangle in
FY2022, doubling the FY2021 total.
Security Conditions
In addition to those short-term migration management
Violence has long plagued the Northern Triangle, but
policies, the Biden Administration developed a U.S.
homicide rates rose rapidly in the 2000s as the region
Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in
became the primary transit corridor for South American
Central America that focuses on long-term socioeconomic,
narcotics bound for the United States. Transnational
security, and governance challenges. The root causes
criminal organizations have sought to secure trafficking
strategy is similar to the prior U.S. Strategy for Engagement
routes through Central America by battling one another and
in Central America, for which Congress appropriated more
by intimidating and infiltrating government institutions.
than $3.7 billion from FY2016 to FY2021. The Trump
Gangs, such as the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the 18th
Administration effectively halted that strategy in March
street gang (M-18), frequently resort to violence while
2019—less than two years into implementation—by
engaging in neighborhood turf wars to control local drug
suspending most new foreign assistance to the Northern
distribution, extortion, and other illicit activities. The region
Triangle and reprogramming $396.2 million to other
also experiences widespread sexual and gender-based
countries in response to continued migration from the
violence and so-called community violence—unplanned,
region. According to the Government Accountability
impulsive violence arising from interpersonal disputes.
Office, the 14-month suspension adversely affected about
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least
56% of U.S.-funded projects in the Northern Triangle.
71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans had been
The Biden Administration has begun to scale up U.S.
displaced internally by violence as of 2018; similar data for
assistance programs in the region while seeking to improve
Guatemala are unavailable because the government does
their effectiveness by using migration data to target
not recognize internal displacement associated with
programs, placing greater emphasis on host-country
violence. In the absence of effective government responses,
governance, and enhancing partnerships with local
victims may be displaced multiple times or may feel
organizations. The Administration has proposed allocating
compelled to leave their countries. Some research has found
$4.0 billion to Central America over four years, including at
that Salvadorans and Hondurans who have been victims of
least $945.8 million in FY2024. The Administration also
multiple crimes have significantly higher migration
has sought to mobilize private-sector investment in Central
intentions than those who have not.
America, securing more than $4.2 billion in commitments
Governance
through Vice President Harris’s Central America Forward
(formerly Call to Action) initiative.
Governments in the Northern Triangle have struggled to
address the region’s difficult socioeconomic and security
Neither the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2022 (P.L.
conditions and to respond to natural disasters. El Salvador,
117-103), nor the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023
Guatemala, and Honduras have long histories of autocratic
(P.L. 117-328), designated overall funding levels for
rule, and their transitions to democracy have been uneven.
Central America. After consulting with Congress, the State
Failures to reform and dedicate sufficient resources to the
Department allocated $695.5 million in bilateral and
public sector have left government institutions weak and
regional foreign assistance to Central America in FY2022
unable to carry out their mandates. Public investment is
and $673.0 million in FY2023. Including humanitarian aid
particularly low in Guatemala, which collects 14.2% of
and centrally managed funds, $1.87 billion in U.S.
GDP in tax revenue—among the lowest levels in Latin
assistance was allocated to the region over the past two
America. Systemic corruption has exacerbated problems in
fiscal years. The House-passed (H.R. 4665/H.Rept. 118-
the region by diverting scarce resources and permitting
146) and Senate-reported (S. 2438/S.Rept. 118-71) FY2024
criminals to co-opt state institutions. Pervasive corruption
foreign assistance appropriations bills do not include
also may undermine confidence among citizens of the
specific funding levels for Central America. They would
region that conditions could ever improve.
designate funds for certain priorities, however, and
maintain some restrictions on aid for the Northern Triangle.
U.S. Policy
In July 2021, the Biden Administration released a
Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American and Canadian
Collaborative Migration Management Strategy intended to
Affairs
build a regional framework for safe, orderly, and humane
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy

IF11151


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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11151 · VERSION 11 · UPDATED