link to page 1 link to page 1 link to page 1 
Updated July 10, 2023
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
U.S. policy toward Central America has been a subject of
natural disasters and poor governance—appear to be the
significant debate and oversight over the past decade as
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
Congress has sought to address the underlying factors
migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests such flows
driving migration from the region to the United States.
can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek
reunification and those who leave their communities serve
Recent Trends
as examples for, and share their experiences and resources
According to a model developed at the University of Texas
with, those who remain behind.
at Austin, an estimated 377,000 people, on average, left
Northern Central America (see Figure 1) annually from
Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions and
FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound for the United
Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran
States. Flows have varied from year to year, with an
Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2022
estimated 651,000 people leaving the region in FY2019,
followed by 92,000 in FY2020, and 487,000 in FY2021.
Surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential migrants
had postponed their plans in the midst of the Coronavirus
Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but intended to
undertake their journeys once governments lifted cross-
border travel restrictions.
Figure 1. Northern Central America
Source: U.S. Border Patrol data.
Note: Figures for FY2020-FY2022, marked in dashed lines, include
Title 42 public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions
and are not strictly comparable to prior years.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in Northern Central
America historically have been concentrated in the hands of
a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
inequality and widespread poverty. Although market-
oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s
In FY2022, U.S. Border Patrol encountered nearly 521,000
produced greater macroeconomic stability, moderate
foreign nationals from Northern Central America at the
economic gains have not translated into improved living
U.S. Southwest border, including 199,000 Hondurans,
conditions for many in the region. Analysts expect
228,000 Guatemalans, and 93,000 Salvadorans (see Figure
working-age populations in Northern Central America will
2). The Border Patrol apprehended 177,000 of those
continue to grow over the next two decades, since
individuals under Title 8 of the U.S. Code (immigration)
approximately 44% of Guatemalans, 40% of Hondurans,
and expelled nearly 344,000 under Title 42 of the U.S.
and 35% of Salvadorans are under the age of 20. Without
Code (public health). According to U.S. Customs and
improved job creation, new workers may have to choose
Border Protection, the use of Title 42 corresponded with an
between pursuing limited, precarious employment
increase in recidivism, with repeat encounters accounting
opportunities in the unregulated informal sector or seeking
for 26.5% of total encounters in FY2020 and FY2021, up
opportunity elsewhere.
from an average of 11.8% in FY2015-FY2019. Of those
encountered from Northern Central America in FY2022,
Natural Disasters
about 22% were unaccompanied minors, 24% were
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
traveling with family members, and 54% were single adults.
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
indicate that Central America has become significantly
Root Causes
hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts
socioeconomic and security conditions—exacerbated by
since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some
https://crsreports.congress.gov
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
rural communities have experienced declining employment
U.S. Policy
opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides
In July 2021, the Biden Administration released a new
a crucial source of seasonal income for about 1.6 million
Collaborative Migration Management Strategy intended to
families in Northern Central America.
build a regional framework for safe, orderly, and humane
migration in North and Central America. The strategy calls
Many rural families already had been selling off land and
for a surge of humanitarian assistance to alleviate
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes
conditions in the region; messaging campaigns to deter
Eta and Iota struck the region in 2020. Those crises
irregular migration; support for partner governments’
contributed to annual economic contractions of nearly 9.0%
efforts to manage their borders, provide protection to
in Honduras, 8.2% in El Salvador, and 1.8% in Guatemala.
vulnerable populations, and reintegrate returned migrants;
According to the World Food Program, the number of food
and expanded access to legal migration and protection
insecure people in Northern Central America nearly tripled
pathways in the United States and third countries. In
from 2.2 million in 2019 to about 6.4 million in late 2021;
accordance with the strategy, the Administration allocated
an estimated 6.7 million Guatemalans and Hondurans were
$289.0 million of humanitarian assistance to address the
food insecure as of mid-2023. A World Food Program
needs of vulnerable populations in Central America and
internet survey of the region found that individuals
Mexico in FY2022. It also issued more than 19,000
experiencing moderate or severe hunger were two to three
seasonal labor H-2B visas to nationals from Northern
times more likely to be making concrete preparations to
Central America in FY2022, up from 9,800 in FY2021.
migrate than those who were not.
In addition to those short-term migration management
Security Conditions
policies, the Biden Administration developed a new U.S.
Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in
Violence has long plagued Northern Central America, but
Central America that focuses on long-term socioeconomic,
homicide rates rose rapidly in the 2000s as the region
security, and governance challenges. The root causes
became the primary transit corridor for South American
strategy is similar to the prior U.S. Strategy for Engagement
narcotics bound for the United States. Transnational
in Central America, for which Congress appropriated more
criminal organizations have sought to secure trafficking
than $3.7 billion from FY2016 to FY2021. The Trump
routes through Central America by battling one another and
Administration effectively halted that strategy in March
by intimidating and infiltrating government institutions.
2019—less than two years into implementation—by
Gangs, such as the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the 18th
suspending most new foreign assistance to Northern Central
street gang (M-18), frequently resort to violence while
America and reprogramming $396.2 million to other
engaging in neighborhood turf wars to control local drug
countries in response to continued migration from the
distribution, extortion, and other illicit activities. The region
region. According to the Government Accountability
also experiences widespread sexual and gender-based
Office, the 14-month suspension adversely affected about
violence and so-called community violence—unplanned,
56% of U.S.-funded projects in Northern Central America.
impulsive violence arising from interpersonal disputes.
The Biden Administration has begun to scale up U.S.
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least
assistance programs in the region once again while seeking
71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans had been
to improve their effectiveness by using migration data to
displaced internally by violence as of 2018; similar data for
target programs, placing greater emphasis on host-country
Guatemala are unavailable because the government does
governance, and enhancing partnerships with local
not recognize internal displacement associated with
organizations. The Administration has proposed allocating
violence. In the absence of effective government responses,
$4.0 billion to Central America over four years, including at
victims may be displaced multiple times or may feel
least $833.3 million in FY2022, $959.0 million in FY2023,
compelled to leave their countries. Research has found that
and $945.8 million in FY2024. The Administration has also
Salvadorans and Hondurans who have been victims of
sought to mobilize private-sector investment in Central
multiple crimes have significantly higher migration
America, securing more than $4.2 billion in commitments
intentions than those who have not.
through Vice President Harris’s Call to Action and Central
Governance
America Forward initiatives as of February 2023.
Governments in Northern Central America have struggled
Thus far, Congress has opted not to fully fund the
to address the region’s difficult socioeconomic and security
Administration’s root causes strategy. The Consolidated
conditions and to respond to natural disasters. El Salvador,
Appropriations Act, 2022 (P.L. 117-103), did not designate
Guatemala, and Honduras have long histories of autocratic
an overall funding amount for Central America but the
rule, and their transitions to democracy have been uneven.
State Department allocated an estimated $704.9 million in
Failures to reform and dedicate sufficient resources to the
bilateral and regional aid to Central America after
public sector have left government institutions weak and
consulting with appropriators. The Consolidated
unable to carry out their mandates. Public investment is
Appropriations Act, 2023 (P.L. 117-328), provided funding
particularly low in Guatemala, which collects 12.4% of
to reduce violence against women, combat corruption, and
gross domestic product in tax revenue—the lowest level in
support locally led development in Central America, among
Latin America. Systemic corruption has exacerbated
other purposes, but did not specify a total for the region.
problems in the region by diverting scarce resources and
permitting criminals to co-opt state institutions. Pervasive
Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American and Canadian
corruption also may undermine confidence among citizens
Affairs
of the region that conditions could ever improve.
https://crsreports.congress.gov
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
IF11151
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to
congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress.
Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has
been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the
United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be
reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include
copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you
wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11151 · VERSION 10 · UPDATED