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Updated March 31, 2022
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
Recent Trends
reunification and those who leave their communities serve
According to a model developed at the University of Texas
as examples for, and share their experiences and resources
at Austin’s Robert Strauss Center for International Security
with, those who remain behind.
and Law, an estimated 407,000 people, on average, left the
Northern Triangle region of Central America (see Figure 1)
Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions and
annually from FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound
Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran
for the United States. Flows have varied from year to year,
Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2021
with an estimated 691,000 people leaving the region in
FY2019 and an estimated 112,000 people leaving the
region in FY2020. Surveys conducted in 2020 found many
potential migrants had postponed their plans in the midst of
the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but
intended to undertake their journeys once governments
lifted cross-border travel restrictions.
Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America
Source: U.S. Border Patrol data.
Note: Figures for FY2020 and FY2021 include Title 42 public health
expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions and are not strictly
comparable to prior years.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in the Northern
Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of
a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
inequality and widespread poverty. Although market-
oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s
In FY2021, U.S. Border Patrol encountered nearly 684,000
produced greater macroeconomic stability and facilitated
foreign nationals from the Northern Triangle at the U.S.
the diversification of the region’s once predominantly
Southwest border, including 309,000 Hondurans, 279,000
agricultural economies, those moderate economic gains
Guatemalans, and 96,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). The
have not translated into improved living conditions for
Border Patrol apprehended 287,000 of those individuals
many in the Northern Triangle. Analysts expect the
under Title 8 of the U.S. Code (immigration) and expelled
working-age populations of all three Northern Triangle
nearly 397,000 under Title 42 of the U.S. Code (public
countries will continue to grow over the next two decades,
health). According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
since approximately 45% of Guatemalans, 42% of
the use of Title 42 has corresponded with an increase in
Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of
recidivism, with repeat encounters accounting for more than
20. Without improved job creation, new workers may have
33% of total encounters in FY2021, compared with about
to choose between pursuing limited, precarious
13% prior to the pandemic. Of those encountered from the
employment opportunities in the unregulated informal
Northern Triangle, about 17% were unaccompanied
sector and seeking opportunity elsewhere.
children, 39% were traveling with family members, and
45% were single adults.
Natural Disasters
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
Root Causes
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
indicate that Central America has become significantly
socioeconomic and security conditions—exacerbated by
hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the
natural disasters and poor governance—appear to be the
region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some
migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests such flows
rural communities have experienced declining employment
can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek
opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
a crucial source of seasonal income for about 1.3 million
undermine confidence among citizens of the region that
families in the Northern Triangle. The spread of coffee leaf
conditions could ever improve.
rust (a fungus) since 2012 has reduced production, and low
international coffee prices have made it difficult for coffee
U.S. Policy
farmers to pay off debts and replenish diseased coffee trees.
In July 2021, the Biden Administration released a new
Collaborative Migration Management Strategy intended to
Many rural families already had been selling off land and
build a regional framework for safe, orderly, and humane
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes
migration in North and Central America. The strategy calls
Eta and Iota struck the region in 2020. The International
for a surge of humanitarian assistance to alleviate
Monetary Fund estimates those crises contributed to annual
conditions in the region; messaging campaigns to deter
economic contractions of nearly 9% in Honduras, 7.9% in
irregular migration; support for partner governments’
El Salvador, and 1.5% in Guatemala. According to the
efforts to manage their borders, provide protection to
World Food Program, the number of food insecure people
vulnerable populations, and reintegrate returned migrants;
in the Northern Triangle nearly tripled from 2.2 million in
and expanded access to legal migration and protection
2019 to about 6.4 million in late 2021. A World Food
pathways in the United States and third countries. In
Program internet survey of the region found that individuals
accordance with the strategy, the Administration allocated
experiencing moderate or severe hunger were two to three
nearly $252 million of humanitarian assistance to the region
times more likely to be making concrete preparations to
in FY2021. It also reestablished the Central American
migrate than those who were not.
Minors program, which reunites eligible minors in the
Northern Triangle with parents in the United States, and has
Security Conditions
made available several thousand supplemental H-2B
Violence has long plagued the Northern Triangle, but
temporary nonagricultural worker visas for Northern
homicide rates rose rapidly in the 2000s, as the region
Triangle nationals.
became the primary transit corridor for South American
narcotics bound for the United States. Transnational
In addition to those short-term migration management
criminal organizations have sought to secure trafficking
policies, the Biden Administration developed a new U.S.
routes through Central America by battling one another and
Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in
local affiliates and by intimidating and infiltrating
Central America that focuses on long-term socioeconomic,
government institutions. Gangs, such as the Mara
security, and governance challenges. The root causes
Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the 18th street gang (M-18),
strategy is similar to the prior U.S. Strategy for Engagement
frequently resort to violence while engaging in
in Central America, for which Congress appropriated more
neighborhood turf wars to control local drug distribution,
than $3.7 billion from FY2016 to FY2021. The Trump
extortion, and other illicit activities. The region also
Administration effectively halted that strategy in March
experiences widespread sexual and gender-based violence
2019—less than two years into implementation—by
and community violence—unplanned, impulsive violence
suspending most new foreign assistance to the Northern
arising from interpersonal disputes.
Triangle and reprogramming $396 million to other
countries in response to continued migration from the
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least
region. According to the Government Accountability
71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans had been
Office, the 14-month suspension adversely affected about
displaced internally by violence as of 2018; similar data for
56% of U.S.-funded projects in the Northern Triangle and
Guatemala are unavailable because the government does
U.S. Agency for International Development officials do not
not recognize internal displacement associated with
expect field operations to return to pre-suspension levels
violence. In the absence of effective government responses,
until at least FY2023.
victims may be displaced multiple times or may feel
compelled to leave their countries. Research has found that
The Biden Administration intends to scale up U.S.
Salvadorans and Hondurans who have been victims of
assistance programs in the region once again and to
multiple crimes have significantly higher migration
improve the effectiveness of U.S. efforts by using migration
intentions than those who have not.
data to better target programs, placing greater emphasis on
host-country governance, and enhancing partnerships with
Governance
local organizations. The Administration has proposed
Northern Triangle governments have struggled to address
allocating $4 billion to Central America over four years,
the region’s difficult socioeconomic and security conditions
including $860.6 million in FY2022. The Consolidated
and to respond to natural disasters. El Salvador, Guatemala,
Appropriations Act, 2022 (P.L. 117-103), does not
and Honduras have long histories of autocratic rule, and
designate an overall funding level for Central America, but
their transitions to democracy have been uneven. Failures to
it provides “not less than” $100 million for locally led
reform and dedicate sufficient resources to the public sector
development programs, $70 million to reduce violence
have left government institutions weak and unable to carry
against women and girls, and $61.5 million for anti-
out their mandates. Public investment is particularly low in
corruption activities in the region. The Administration is
Guatemala, which collects about 12% of gross domestic
requesting $986.8 million for Central America in FY2023.
product in tax revenue—the lowest level in Latin America.
Systemic corruption has exacerbated problems in the region
Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American and Canadian
by diverting scarce resources and permitting criminals to
Affairs
co-opt state institutions. Pervasive corruption also may
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
IF11151
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