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Updated April 22, 2021
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
Recent Trends
Figure 2. U.S. Apprehensions and Expulsions of
According to a model developed by academics at the
Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at
University of Texas at Austin, an estimated 311,000 people,
the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2021
on average, left the Northern Triangle region of Central
America (see Figure 1) annually from FY2014 to FY2020,
with the majority bound for the United States. Flows have
varied from year to year, however, with an estimated
709,000 people leaving the region in FY2019 followed by
an estimated 139,000 people leaving the region in FY2020.
Surveys conducted in 2020 found that many potential
migrants in the region had postponed their plans in the
midst of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
pandemic but intended to undertake their journeys once
governments lifted cross-border travel restrictions.
Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
Notes: *FY2021 includes six months, from October 1, 2020, through
March 31, 2021. Figures for FY2020 and FY2021 include Title 42
public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions and are
not strictly comparable to prior years.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in the Northern
Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of
a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme
inequality and widespread poverty. Although market-
oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s
produced greater macroeconomic stability and facilitated
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
the diversification of the region’s once predominantly
agricultural economies, those moderate economic gains
Anecdotal reports and recent data collected at the
have not translated into improved living conditions for
Southwest U.S. border suggest migrants are once again on
many in the Northern Triangle. In areas such as the western
the move. U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel
highlands of Guatemala, residents continue to contend with
encountered (apprehended or expelled under a public health
high levels of malnutrition and low levels of education that
authority) more foreign nationals from the Northern
limit their lifelong skill and earning capacities. Analysts
Triangle through the first half of FY2021 than they did in
expect the working-age populations of all three Northern
all of FY2020 (see Figure 2). Approximately 34,000 of the
Triangle countries will continue to increase over the next
nearly 226,000 Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Salvadorans
two decades, since approximately 45% of Guatemalans,
encountered at the border this fiscal year have been
42% of Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the
unaccompanied minors—a category of migrants that the
age of 20. Without improved job creation, however, new
Biden Administration has exempted from immediate public
workers may be forced to choose between pursuing limited,
health expulsions.
precarious employment opportunities in the unregulated
informal sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere.
Root Causes
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
Natural Disasters
socioeconomic and security conditions—exacerbated by
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
natural disasters and poor governance—appear to be the
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
indicate that Central America has become significantly
migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests that such
hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the
flows can become self-reinforcing over time, as families
region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts
seek reunification and those who leave their communities
since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some
serve as examples for, and share their experiences and
rural communities have experienced declining employment
resources with, those who remain behind.
opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
a crucial source of seasonal income for about 1.3 million
by diverting scarce resources and permitting criminals to
families in the Northern Triangle. The spread of coffee leaf
co-opt state institutions. Pervasive corruption also may
rust (a fungus) since 2012 has reduced production, and low
undermine confidence among citizens of the region that
international coffee prices have made it difficult for coffee
conditions could ever improve.
farmers to pay off debts and replenish diseased coffee trees.
U.S. Policy
Many rural families already had been selling off land and
The Biden Administration is implementing a multipronged
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes
approach intended to address the challenges posed by
Eta and Iota struck the region in 2020. The International
irregular migration flows from the Northern Triangle.
Monetary Fund estimates those crises contributed to annual
Similar to the Obama and Trump Administrations, it has
economic contractions of 8.6% in El Salvador, 8% in
sought to deter short-term migration flows with public
Honduras, and 1.5% in Guatemala. According to the World
messaging campaigns and by urging governments in
Food Programme, approximately 8 million people in the
Central America and Mexico to block and disperse migrants
Northern Triangle and Nicaragua are facing hunger,
moving through the region. The Biden Administration also
including 1.7 million contending with emergency levels of
has deployed a U.S. Agency for International Development
food insecurity. Nearly 15% of the people surveyed by the
(USAID) Disaster Assistance Response Team to the
World Food Programme in January 2021 reportedly were
Northern Triangle to scale up emergency food assistance,
making concrete plans to migrate, up from 8% in 2018.
income support programs, protection for vulnerable
individuals, and other humanitarian efforts. As of April 6,
Security Conditions
2021, USAID had allocated $112 million of FY2021 and
Violence has long plagued the Northern Triangle, but
prior-year resources to ongoing humanitarian assistance
homicide rates rose rapidly in the 2000s , as the region
efforts in the region.
became the primary transit corridor for South American
narcotics bound for the United States. Transnational
On February 5, 2021, President Biden issued Executive
criminal organizations have sought to secure trafficking
Order 14010, calling for a comprehensive regional
routes through Central America by battling one another and
framework to manage migration flows that would “facilitate
local affiliates and by intimidating and infiltrating
access to protection and other lawful immigration avenues,
government institutions. Gangs, such as the Mara
in both the United States and partner countries, as close to
Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the 18th street gang (M-18),
migrants’ homes as possible.” To expand access to the U.S.
frequently resort to violence while engaging in
asylum system, the Administration has suspended three
neighborhood turf wars to control local drug distribution,
asylum cooperative agreements (also known as safe third
extortion, and other illicit activities. The region also
country agreements), which the Trump Administration had
experiences widespread sexual and gender-based violence
negotiated in 2019 to allow the United States to transfer
and community violence—unplanned, impulsive violence
certain asylum-seekers to Guatemala, El Salvador, and
arising from interpersonal disputes. Although the pandemic
Honduras to apply for protection in those countries rather
and government lockdowns initially disrupted criminal
than in the United States. (Guatemala had already
activities, reports suggest domestic violence increased and
suspended its agreement in March 2020, and the other two
gangs and illicit trafficking groups quickly adapted.
agreements were never implemented). The Biden
Administration also is reestablishing the Central American
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least
Minors program, which the Trump Administration halted in
71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans had been
2017, to reunite eligible minors in the Northern Triangle
displaced internally by violence as of 2018; similar data for
with parents in the United States.
Guatemala are unavailable because the government does
not recognize internal displacement associated with
For FY2022, the Biden Administration is requesting $861
violence. In the absence of effective government responses,
million in foreign assistance for Central America as part of
victims may be displaced multiple times or ultimately may
its proposed four-year, $4 billion plan to address the root
feel compelled to leave their countries. Research has found
causes of migration. It appears as though the requested
that Salvadorans and Hondurans who have been victims of
assistance would build on the U.S. Strategy for Engagement
multiple crimes have significantly higher migration
in Central America, for which Congress appropriated more
intentions than those who have not.
than $3.6 billion between FY2016 and FY2021. U.S.
agencies significantly scaled back many of the programs
Governance
funded through that strategy less than two years into
Northern Triangle governments have struggled to address
implementation due to the Trump Administration’s decision
the region’s difficult socioeconomic and security conditions
to suspend most foreign assistance to the Northern Triangle
and to respond to natural disasters. El Salvador, Guatemala,
and reprogram $396 million to other foreign policy
and Honduras have long histories of autocratic rule, and
priorities. As of January 2021, USAID programs in the
their transitions to democracy have been uneven. Failures to
region were reaching fewer than half as many people as
reform and dedicate sufficient resources to the public sector
they did prior to the March 2019 aid suspension. (For more
have left government institutions weak and unable to carry
information, see CRS In Focus IF10371, U.S. Strategy for
out their mandates. Public investment is particularly low in
Engagement in Central America: An Overview.)
Guatemala, which collects about 12% of gross domestic
product in tax revenue—the lowest level in Latin America.
Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American and Canadian
Systemic corruption has exacerbated problems in the region
Affairs
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
IF11151
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