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Updated October 27, 2021
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
Recent Trends
as examples for, and share their experiences and resources
According to a model developed by academics at the
with, those who remain behind.
University of Texas at Austin, an estimated 311,000 people,
on average, left the Northern Triangle region of Central
Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions and
America (see Figure 1) annually from FY2014 to FY2020,
Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran
with the majority bound for the United States. Flows have
Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2021
varied from year to year, with an estimated 709,000 people
leaving the region in FY2019 and an estimated 139,000
people leaving the region in FY2020. Surveys conducted in
2020 found many potential migrants in the region had
postponed their plans in the midst of the Coronavirus
Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but intended to
undertake their journeys once governments lifted cross-
border travel restrictions.
Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America
Source: U.S. Border Patrol data.
Note: Figures for FY2020 and FY2021 include Title 42 public health
expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions and are not strictly
comparable to prior years.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in the Northern
Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of
a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme
inequality and widespread poverty. Although market-
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s
produced greater macroeconomic stability and facilitated
In FY2021, U.S. Border Patrol encountered nearly 684,000
the diversification of the region’s once predominantly
foreign nationals from the Northern Triangle at the U.S.
agricultural economies, those moderate economic gains
Southwest border, including 309,000 Hondurans, 279,000
have not translated into improved living conditions for
Guatemalans, and 96,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). The
many in the Northern Triangle. Analysts expect the
Border Patrol apprehended 287,000 of those individuals
working-age populations of all three Northern Triangle
under Title 8 of the U.S. Code (immigration) and expelled
countries will continue to increase over the next two
nearly 397,000 under Title 42 of the U.S. Code (public
decades, since approximately 45% of Guatemalans, 42% of
health). Taken together, individuals from the Northern
Hondurans, and 36% of Salvadorans are under the age of
Triangle accounted for 41% of all Border Patrol encounters
20. Without improved job creation, new workers may be
at the Southwest border, outnumbering Mexican nationals,
forced to choose between pursuing limited, precarious
who accounted for 37% of the total. Of those encountered
employment opportunities in the unregulated informal
from the Northern Triangle, about 17% were
sector and seeking opportunity elsewhere.
unaccompanied children, 39% were traveling with family
members, and 45% were single adults.
Natural Disasters
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
Root Causes
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
indicate that Central America has become significantly
socioeconomic and security conditions—exacerbated by
hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the
natural disasters and poor governance—appear to be the
region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some
migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests such flows
rural communities have experienced declining employment
can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek
opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides
reunification and those who leave their communities serve
a crucial source of seasonal income for about 1.3 million
https://crsreports.congress.gov
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
families in the Northern Triangle. The spread of coffee leaf
co-opt state institutions. Pervasive corruption also may
rust (a fungus) since 2012 has reduced production, and low
undermine confidence among citizens of the region that
international coffee prices have made it difficult for coffee
conditions could ever improve.
farmers to pay off debts and replenish diseased coffee trees.
U.S. Policy
Many rural families already had been selling off land and
Pursuant to Executive Order 14010, issued in February
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes
2021, the Biden Administration developed a new
Eta and Iota struck the region in 2020. The International
Collaborative Migration Management Strategy intended to
Monetary Fund estimates those crises contributed to annual
build a regional framework for safe, orderly, and humane
economic contractions of nearly 9% in Honduras, 7.9% in
migration in North and Central America. Released in July
El Salvador, and 1.5% in Guatemala. According to the
2021, the migration management strategy calls for a surge
World Food Program, the number of people going hungry
of humanitarian assistance to alleviate conditions in the
in the Northern Triangle and Nicaragua nearly quadrupled
region; messaging campaigns to deter irregular migration;
from 2.2 million in 2018 to approximately 8 million in
support for partner governments’ efforts to manage their
2021. Nearly 15% of the people surveyed by the World
borders, provide protection to vulnerable populations, and
Food Program in January 2021 reportedly were making
reintegrate returned migrants; and expanded access to legal
concrete plans to migrate, up from 8% in 2018.
migration and protection pathways in the United States and
third countries. In accordance with the strategy, the
Security Conditions
Administration allocated nearly $252 million of
Violence has long plagued the Northern Triangle, but
humanitarian assistance to the region in FY2021. It also
homicide rates rose rapidly in the 2000s, as the region
reestablished the Central American Minors program, which
became the primary transit corridor for South American
reunites eligible minors in the Northern Triangle with
narcotics bound for the United States. Transnational
parents in the United States, and made available 6,000
criminal organizations have sought to secure trafficking
supplemental H-2B temporary nonagricultural worker visas
routes through Central America by battling one another and
for Northern Triangle nationals in FY2021.
local affiliates and by intimidating and infiltrating
government institutions. Gangs, such as the Mara
In addition to those short-term migration management
Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the 18th street gang (M-18),
policies, the Biden Administration developed a new U.S.
frequently resort to violence while engaging in
Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in
neighborhood turf wars to control local drug distribution,
Central America that focuses on long-term socioeconomic,
extortion, and other illicit activities. The region also
security, and governance challenges. The root causes
experiences widespread sexual and gender-based violence
strategy is similar to the prior U.S. Strategy for Engagement
and community violence—unplanned, impulsive violence
in Central America, for which Congress appropriated more
arising from interpersonal disputes. Although the pandemic
than $3.7 billion from FY2016 to FY2021. The Trump
and government lockdowns initially disrupted criminal
Administration effectively halted that strategy in March
activities, reports suggest domestic violence increased and
2019—less than two years into implementation—by
gangs and illicit trafficking groups quickly adapted.
suspending most new foreign assistance to the Northern
Triangle and reprogramming $396 million to other
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least
countries in response to continued migration from the
71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans had been
region. According to the Government Accountability
displaced internally by violence as of 2018; similar data for
Office, the 14-month suspension adversely affected about
Guatemala are unavailable because the government does
56% of U.S.-funded projects in the Northern Triangle and
not recognize internal displacement associated with
field operations have yet to return to pre-suspension levels.
violence. In the absence of effective government responses,
victims may be displaced multiple times or may feel
The Biden Administration intends to scale up U.S.
compelled to leave their countries. Research has found that
assistance programs in the region once again and to
Salvadorans and Hondurans who have been victims of
improve the effectiveness of U.S. efforts by using migration
multiple crimes have significantly higher migration
data to better target programs, placing greater emphasis on
intentions than those who have not.
host-country governance, and enhancing partnerships with
local organizations. The Administration has proposed
Governance
allocating $4 billion to Central America over four years and
Northern Triangle governments have struggled to address
has requested $860.6 million to begin implementing the
the region’s difficult socioeconomic and security conditions
root causes strategy in FY2022. A foreign aid
and to respond to natural disasters. El Salvador, Guatemala,
appropriations bill passed by the House in July 2021 (H.R.
and Honduras have long histories of autocratic rule, and
4373/H.Rept. 117-84) would fully fund the Administration
their transitions to democracy have been uneven. Failures to
request for Central America; a draft bill released by the
reform and dedicate sufficient resources to the public sector
Senate Appropriations Committee in October 2021 would
have left government institutions weak and unable to carry
provide $653.9 million for the region. A continuing
out their mandates. Public investment is particularly low in
resolution (P.L. 117-43) is funding foreign aid programs at
Guatemala, which collects about 12% of gross domestic
the FY2021 level until December 3, 2021.
product in tax revenue—the lowest level in Latin America.
Systemic corruption has exacerbated problems in the region
Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American and Canadian
by diverting scarce resources and permitting criminals to
Affairs
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
IF11151
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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11151 · VERSION 5 · UPDATED