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Updated December 12, 2022
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
U.S. policy toward Central America has been a subject of
natural disasters and poor governance—appear to be the
significant debate and oversight over the past decade as
most important drivers of this mixed flow of economic
Congress has sought to address the underlying factors
migrants and asylum-seekers. Research suggests such flows
driving migration from the region to the United States.
can become self-reinforcing over time, as families seek
reunification and those who leave their communities serve
Recent Trends
as examples for, and share their experiences and resources
According to a model developed at the University of Texas
with, those who remain behind.
at Austin, an estimated 377,000 people, on average, left the
Northern Triangle region of Central America (see Figure 1)
Figure 2. U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions and
annually from FY2018 to FY2021, with the majority bound
Expulsions of Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran
for the United States. Flows have varied from year to year,
Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2022
with an estimated 651,000 people leaving the region in
FY2019, followed by 92,400 in FY2020, and 486,600 in
FY2021. Surveys conducted in 2020 found many potential
migrants had postponed their plans in the midst of the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic but
intended to undertake their journeys once governments
lifted cross-border travel restrictions.
Figure 1. Northern Triangle of Central America
Source: U.S. Border Patrol data.
Note: Figures for FY2020-FY2022, marked in dashed lines, include
Title 42 public health expulsions in addition to Title 8 apprehensions
and are not strictly comparable to prior years.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Land ownership and economic power in the Northern
Triangle historically have been concentrated in the hands of
a small group of elites, leaving a legacy of extreme
Source: Map Resources. Adapted by CRS.
inequality and widespread poverty. Although market-
oriented economic reforms in the 1980s and 1990s
In FY2022, U.S. Border Patrol encountered nearly 521,000
produced greater macroeconomic stability, moderate
foreign nationals from the Northern Triangle at the U.S.
economic gains have not translated into improved living
Southwest border, including 199,000 Hondurans, 228,000
conditions for many in the Northern Triangle. Analysts
Guatemalans, and 93,000 Salvadorans (see Figure 2). The
expect the working-age populations of all three Northern
Border Patrol apprehended 177,000 of those individuals
Triangle countries will continue to grow over the next two
under Title 8 of the U.S. Code (immigration) and expelled
decades, since approximately 44% of Guatemalans, 40% of
nearly 344,000 under Title 42 of the U.S. Code (public
Hondurans, and 35% of Salvadorans are under the age of
health). According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
20. Without improved job creation, new workers may have
the use of Title 42 has corresponded with an increase in
to choose between pursuing limited, precarious
recidivism, with repeat encounters accounting for 26.5% of
employment opportunities in the unregulated informal
total encounters in FY2020 and FY2021, compared with an
sector or seeking opportunity elsewhere.
average of 11.8% in FY2015 through FY2019. Of those
encountered from the Northern Triangle in FY2022, about
Natural Disasters
22% were unaccompanied minors, 24% were traveling with
Environmental shocks have aggravated the already difficult
family members, and 54% were single adults.
living conditions in the region. Some scientific studies
indicate that Central America has become significantly
Root Causes
hotter and dryer in recent decades, and portions of the
Although motives vary by individual, difficult
region have struggled with a series of prolonged droughts
socioeconomic and security conditions—exacerbated by
since 2014. In addition to facing repeated crop losses, some
https://crsreports.congress.gov
Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
rural communities have experienced declining employment
U.S. Policy
opportunities in the coffee sector, which typically provides
In July 2021, the Biden Administration released a new
a crucial source of seasonal income for about 1.3 million
Collaborative Migration Management Strategy intended to
families in the Northern Triangle and Nicaragua.
build a regional framework for safe, orderly, and humane
migration in North and Central America. The strategy calls
Many rural families already had been selling off land and
for a surge of humanitarian assistance to alleviate
migrating when the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes
conditions in the region; messaging campaigns to deter
Eta and Iota struck the region in 2020. Those crises
irregular migration; support for partner governments’
contributed to annual economic contractions of nearly 9.0%
efforts to manage their borders, provide protection to
in Honduras, 8.2% in El Salvador, and 1.8% in Guatemala.
vulnerable populations, and reintegrate returned migrants;
According to the World Food Program, the number of food
and expanded access to legal migration and protection
insecure people in the Northern Triangle nearly tripled from
pathways in the United States and third countries. In
2.2 million in 2019 to about 6.4 million in late 2021; an
accordance with the strategy, the Administration allocated
estimated 7.2 million Guatemalans and Hondurans were
$295.6 million of humanitarian assistance to address the
food insecure as of mid-2022. A World Food Program
needs of vulnerable populations in Central America and
internet survey of the region found that individuals
Mexico in FY2022. It also issued more than 19,000
experiencing moderate or severe hunger were two to three
seasonal labor H-2B visas to Northern Triangle nationals in
times more likely to be making concrete preparations to
FY2022, up from 9,800 in FY2021, among other actions.
migrate than those who were not.
In addition to those short-term migration management
Security Conditions
policies, the Biden Administration developed a new U.S.
Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in
Violence has long plagued the Northern Triangle, but
Central America that focuses on long-term socioeconomic,
homicide rates rose rapidly in the 2000s as the region
security, and governance challenges. The root causes
became the primary transit corridor for South American
strategy is similar to the prior U.S. Strategy for Engagement
narcotics bound for the United States. Transnational
in Central America, for which Congress appropriated more
criminal organizations have sought to secure trafficking
than $3.7 billion from FY2016 to FY2021. The Trump
routes through Central America by battling one another and
Administration effectively halted that strategy in March
by intimidating and infiltrating government institutions.
2019—less than two years into implementation—by
Gangs, such as the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the 18th
suspending most new foreign assistance to the Northern
street gang (M-18), frequently resort to violence while
Triangle and reprogramming $396 million to other
engaging in neighborhood turf wars to control local drug
countries in response to continued migration from the
distribution, extortion, and other illicit activities. The region
region. According to the Government Accountability
also experiences widespread sexual and gender-based
Office, the 14-month suspension adversely affected about
violence and so-called community violence—unplanned,
56% of U.S.-funded projects in the Northern Triangle.
impulsive violence arising from interpersonal disputes.
The Biden Administration has begun to scale up U.S.
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least
assistance programs in the region once again while seeking
71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans had been
to improve their effectiveness by using migration data to
displaced internally by violence as of 2018; similar data for
target programs, placing greater emphasis on host-country
Guatemala are unavailable because the government does
governance, and enhancing partnerships with local
not recognize internal displacement associated with
organizations. The Administration has proposed allocating
violence. In the absence of effective government responses,
$4.0 billion to Central America over four years, including
victims may be displaced multiple times or may feel
$860.6 million in FY2022 and $986.8 million in FY2023.
compelled to leave their countries. Research has found that
The Administration has also sought to mobilize private-
Salvadorans and Hondurans who have been victims of
sector investment in the Northern Triangle, securing more
multiple crimes have significantly higher migration
than $3.2 billion in commitments through Vice President
intentions than those who have not.
Harris’s “Call to Action” initiative as of June 2022.
Governance
Thus far, Congress has opted not to fully fund the
Northern Triangle governments have struggled to address
the region’s difficult socio
Administration’s root causes strategy. The Consolidated
economic and security conditions
Appropriations Act, 2022 (P.L. 117-103), did not designate
and to respond to natural disasters. El Salvador, Guatemala,
an overall funding amount for Central America but the
and Honduras have long histories of autocratic rule, and
State Department allocated an estimated $676.2 million to
their transitions to democracy have been uneven. Failures to
the region after consulting with appropriators. The FY2023
reform and dedicate sufficient resources to the public sector
foreign aid appropriations bills reported in the House (H.R.
have left government institutions weak and unable to carry
8282) and introduced in the Senate (S. 4662) would provide
out their mandates. Public investment is particularly low in
funding for Central America to reduce violence against
Guatemala, which collects 12.4% of gross domestic product
women and to combat corruption, among other purposes,
in tax revenue—the lowest level in Latin America.
but would not specify a comprehensive total for the region.
Systemic corruption has exacerbated problems in the region
by diverting scarce resources and permitting criminals to
co-opt state institutions. Pervasive corruption also may
Peter J. Meyer, Specialist in Latin American and Canadian
undermine confidence among citizens of the region that
Affairs
conditions could ever improve.
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Central American Migration: Root Causes and U.S. Policy
IF11151
Disclaimer
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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11151 · VERSION 8 · UPDATED