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Budget Issues That Shaped the 2018 Farm Bill

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Budget Issues ShapingThat Shaped the 2018 Farm Bill

Updated December 6, 2018February 28, 2019 (R45425)
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Summary

The farm bill is an omnibus, multi-yearmultiyear law that governs an array of agricultural and food programs. The farm bill has typically undergone reauthorization about every five years. The current farm bill—the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (P.L. 115-334), often called the "2018 farm bill"—was enacted in December 2018 and expires in 2023.

Budget for the 2018 Farm Bill

(dollars in millions, FY2019-FY2023, mandatory outlays)

Farm bill titles

April 2018 baseline

Score of P.L. 115-334

Projected outlays at enactment

law that governs an array of agricultural and food programs. It provides an opportunity for policymakers to periodically address a broad range of agricultural and food issues. The farm bill has typically undergone reauthorization about every five years. The 115th Congress has considered a new farm bill but has not enacted one to date. Both the House and the Senate passed versions of a 2018 farm bill (H.R. 2) in June 2018. Conference proceedings officially began in September 2018 but have not reached agreement.

The farm bill provides an opportunity for Congress to choose how much support, if any, to provide for various agriculture and nutrition programs and how to allocate it among competing constituencies. Under congressional budgeting rules, many programs are assumed to continue beyond the end of a farm bill. From a budgetary perspective, this provides funding to reauthorize programs, reallocate funding to other programs, or be taken for deficit reduction.

Budget for a 2018 Farm Bill

(dollars in millions, FY2019-FY2028)

 

 

CBO score

Farm bill titles

CBO baseline

House-passed

Senate-passed

Commodities

61,151

31,340

+284

101

-408

31,440

Conservation

59,754

28,715

-795

+555

+0

29,270

Trade

3,624

1,809

+470

235

+515

2,044

Nutrition

663,828

325,922

-1,426

+98

+94

326,020

Credit

-4,558

2,205

+0

+0

-2,205

Rural Development

168

98

+0

-530

-2,340

432

Research

604

329

+250

365

+685

694

Forestry

10

5

+0

+5

Energy

612

362

-517

+109

+375

471

Horticulture

1,547

772

+10

250

+626

1,022

Crop Insurance

78,037

38,057

-161

47

-2

38,010

Miscellaneous

2,423

1,259

+566

685

+517

1,944

Subtotal

867,200

426,462

-1,320

+1,820

+68

428,282

Increase in Revenue

revenue

-

+465

35

+68

35

Total

867,200

426,462

-+1,785

0

428,247

Source: CRS, compiled using the CBO Baseline by Title (unpublished; April 2018), based on the CBO baseline (April 2018), and the CBO cost estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House and as passed by the Senate (July 24, 2018).

The farm bill authorizes programs in two spending categories: mandatory spending and discretionary spending. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)and the CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement for H.R. 2 (December 11, 2018).

The farm bill provides an opportunity for Congress to choose how much support, if any, to provide for various agriculture and nutrition programs and how to allocate it among competing constituencies. Under congressional budgeting rules, many programs are assumed to continue beyond the end of a farm bill. From a budgetary perspective, this provides a baseline for comparing future spending reauthorizations, reallocations to other programs, and reductions to projected spending. Since 2000, congressional goals for the farm bill's budget have varied: The 2002 farm bill increased spending over 10 years, the 2008 farm bill was essentially budget neutral, the 2014 farm bill reduced spending, and the 2018 farm bill is budget neutral, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The farm bill authorizes programs in two spending categories: mandatory spending and discretionary spending. Mandatory spending is not only authorized but also actually provided via budget enforcement rules. Discretionary spending may be authorized in a farm bill but is not actually provided until budget decisions are made in a future annual appropriations act.

The CBO baseline is a projection at a particular point in time of future federal spending on mandatory programs under current law. When a new bill is proposed that would affect mandatory spending, the cost impact (scorescore) is measured in relation to the baseline. Changes that increase spending relative to the baseline have a positive score; those that decrease spending relative to the baseline have a negative score. Federal budget rules such as "PayGo" may require budgetary offsets to balance new spending so that there is no increase in the federal deficit. Discretionary spending may be authorized in a farm bill but is not actually provided until budget decisions are made in a future annual appropriations act.

Since 2000, farm bill budgets have varied: The 2002 farm bill increased overall spending, the 2008 farm bill was essentially budget neutral, the 2014 farm bill reduced spending, and the 2018 farm bill is projected to be essentially budget neutral.

The April 2018 CBO baseline for farm bill programs, used as the official benchmark in 2018, contains $867 billion over FY2019-FY2028—77% of which stems from the nutrition title ($664 billion) and its largest program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. The remaining $203 billion baseline is for agricultural programs, mostly in crop insurance, farm commodity programs, and conservation. Other titles of the farm bill contribute about 1% of the baseline, some of which are funded primarily with discretionary spending.

The budgetary impact of the 2018 farm bill proposals are measured relative to the CBO baseline—that is, what the 2014 farm bill (current law) would have spent had it continued. Relative to the baseline, the House-passed bill would reduce federal outlays by $1.8 billion over 10 years (-0.2%), and the Senate-passed bill would remain budget neutral (+0%) over the same 10-year period. These overall relatively small scores are the net result of sometimes relatively larger increases and reductions across individual titles. Some of the overall scores within a single title of the farm bill are the net result of sometimes large changes in individual programs that may reflect changes in the direction of policy.

  • The House bill would achieve its overall 10-year net reduction primarily by reducing net outlays in four titles (Nutrition, Conservation, Energy, and Crop Insurance). It would increase spending by less than the total of these reductions across five other titles (Miscellaneous, Trade, Commodities, Research, and Horticulture). The Nutrition title has provisions that sum to a $22 billion reduction over 10 years (including those for work requirements) and provisions that would add to $20.6 billion in increased spending. Similarly, the Conservation title has provisions that sum to a $12.6 billion reduction (including repealing the Conservation Stewardship Program), as well as provisions that add spending totaling $11.8 billion.
  • The Senate bill would achieve a budget-neutral outcome by reducing net spending primarily in the Rural Development title but also in the Commodities and Crop Insurance titles. It would increase spending across seven titles (Research, Horticulture, Miscellaneous, Trade, Energy, Nutrition, and Forestry).

For some of the programs without baseline, both the House-passed and the Senate-passed bills would provide continuing funding and, in some cases, permanent baseline.


The farm bill is an omnibus, multi-year law that governs an array of agricultural and food programs. It provides an opportunity for policymakers to periodically address a broad range of agricultural and food issues. The farm bill has typically undergone reauthorization about every five years.1

From its beginning in the 1930s, farm bills have focused primarily on farm commodity programs to support a handful of staple commodities—corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, dairy, and sugar. In recent decades, farm bills have expanded in scope to include a Nutrition title since 1973 and since then Conservation, Horticulture, Bioenergy, Credit, Research, and Rural Development titles, among others.

Recent farm bills have been subject to various procedural hurdles, such as insufficient votes to pass the House floor, presidential vetoes, or—as in the case of 2008 and 2014 farm bills—short-term extensions.2 The current farm bill (the Agricultural Act of 2014, P.L. 113-79) has many provisions that expire in 2018.3

Farm Bill Status

The 115th Congress has begun but not finished a new farm bill. An initial House vote on H.R. 2 (the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018) in May 2018 failed by vote of 198-213, but floor procedures allowed that vote to be reconsidered, and it passed in June by a second vote of 213-211. The Senate passed its bill as an amendment to H.R. 2 (the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018) in June 2018 by a vote of 86-11. Conference proceedings officially began on September 5, 2018, but have not reached agreement.4

Farm Bills from a Budget Perspective

The farm bill provides an opportunity for Congress to choose how much support to provide for agriculture and nutrition and how to allocate it among competing constituencies. Generally, farm bills authorize spending in two categories: mandatory and discretionary. From a budgetary perspective, many programs are assumed to continue beyond the end of a farm bill, even though their authorizations may expire. That projection—for certain mandatory programs as explained below—provides funding to reauthorize programs, reallocate funding to other programs, or take offsets for deficit reduction. For new programs, those without baseline, or discretionary programs, funding must come from other means.

Types of Spending Authorized in the Farm Bill

Mandatory spending. A farm bill authorizes outlays and pays for them with multiyear budget estimates when the law is enacted. Budget enforcement is through "baseline" projections under current law, "scores" of the effect of proposed bills, and "PayGo" budget rules that may prevent deficit increases. (See CRS Report R44763, Present Trends and the Evolution of Mandatory Spending.)

Discretionary authorizations. A farm bill establishes parameters for discretionary programs and authorizes them to receive funding in subsequent appropriations acts but does not provide or assure actual funding. Budget enforcement is through future appropriations and budget resolutions. (See CRS Report R42388, The Congressional Appropriations Process: An Introduction.)

Recent farm bills have faced various budget situations, including spending more under a budget surplus, cutting spending for deficit reduction, and remaining basically budget neutral—with or without offsets. For example

  • The 2002 farm bill (the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, P.L. 107-171) was enacted under a budget surplus that allowed it to make changes that were projected to increase spending by $73 billion over a 10-year budget window,

    The April 2018 CBO baseline was the official benchmark to measure changes made by the 2018 farm bill. The five-year baseline was $426 billion over FY2019-FY2023 (what the 2014 farm bill would have spent had it been continued). The budgetary impact of the 2018 farm bill is measured relative to that baseline. Among its impacts are these four points:

    • 1. The enacted farm bill increases net outlays in the first five years by $1.8 billion, which is offset by the same amount of net reductions in outlays during the second five years. Therefore, over 10 years, the net impact is budget neutral.
    • 2. Eight titles in the enacted law have increased outlays over the five-year period, including Farm Commodities, Conservation, Trade, Nutrition, Research, Energy, Horticulture, and Miscellaneous. Two of those titles—Conservation and Nutrition—have reductions in the second five years of the budget window that make them budget neutral over 10 years.
    • 3. Most of the budget reductions at the title level that provide offsets for the increases above, especially in the 10-year budget window, are from changes in the rural development title.
    • 4. The 2018 farm bill provides continuing funding and, in some cases, permanent baseline, for 23 of the 39 so-called programs without baseline from the 2014 farm bill.

    Projected outlays for the 2018 farm bill at enactment are $428 billion over the FY2019-FY2023 five-year life of the act. The Nutrition title and its largest program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), account for $326 billion (76%) of those projected outlays. The remaining 24%, $102 billion, is for agricultural programs, mostly in crop insurance (8.9%), farm commodity programs (7.3%), and conservation (6.8%). Other titles of the farm bill account for 1% of the mandatory spending, some of which are funded primarily with discretionary spending.

    Historical trends in farm bill spending show increased SNAP outlays after the 2009 recession, increased crop insurance outlays based on insurable coverage, farm commodity programs outlays that vary inversely with markets, and steadily increasing conservation program outlays that have leveled off in recent years.

    Actual and Projected Spending by Major Farm Bill Mandatory Programs

    Source: CRS.

    Notes: Darker shades of each color are actual outlays based on USDA data. Lighter shades are CBO data, including estimates for FY2017-FY2018 and CRS analysis of CBO data for projections at enactment of the 2018 farm bill.

    The farm bill is an omnibus, multiyear law that governs an array of agricultural and food programs. It provides an opportunity for Congress to choose how much support to provide for agriculture and nutrition and how to allocate it among competing constituencies. The farm bill has typically undergone reauthorization about every five years. The current farm bill—the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (P.L. 115-334, H.R. 2), often called the "2018 farm bill"—was enacted in December 2018 and expires in 2023.1

    From its beginning in the 1930s, farm bills have focused primarily on farm commodity programs to support a handful of staple commodities—corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, dairy, and sugar. In recent decades, farm bills have expanded in scope to include a Nutrition title since 1973 and since then Conservation, Horticulture, Bioenergy, Credit, Research, and Rural Development titles.2

    Budget matters increasingly influence the development of the farm bill. While other reports discuss policy issues,3 this report focuses on the budgetary effects across the whole farm bill.

    Farm Bills from a Budget Perspective

    One way to compare the activities covered by a farm bill is by the allocation of federal spending and, more specifically, by how much is spent in total and how a new law changes allocations or policy. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates are the official measures when bills are considered and are grounded in long-standing budget laws and rules.4

    Recent Historical Perspective

    Recent farm bills have faced various budget situations, including spending more under a budget surplus, cutting spending for deficit reduction, and remaining budget neutral. For example

    The 2002 farm bill (the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002, P.L. 107-171) was enacted under a budget surplus that allowed it to make changes that were projected to increase spending by $73 billion, or 22%, over a 10-year budget window—
    more than half of which was for the farm commodity programs.5
  • The 2008 farm bill (the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008, P.L. 110-246) was officially budget neutral, though it included $10 billion of offsets over 10 years from tax-related and other provisions that allowed it to increase spending on the Nutrition, Conservation, and Disaster titles.6
  • The 2014 farm bill (the Agricultural Act of 2014, P.L. 113-79) was enacted under deficit reduction and budget sequestration that influenced its legislative development. It made changes that projected a net reduction of $1617 billion, or 1.7%, over 10 years ($23 billion including sequestration).7
  • The 2018 farm bill (the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, P.L. 115-334) was held to a budget-neutral position over its 10-year budget window. Some budget amounts were reallocated across programs within issue areas and across titles of the farm bill, as discussed throughout this report.
  • Types of Spending Authorizations

    Generally, farm bills authorize spending in two categories: mandatory and discretionary. From a budgetary perspective, many of the larger programs are assumed to continue beyond the end of a farm bill, even though their authorizations to operate may expire. That projection for mandatory programs, as explained below, provides funding to reauthorize programs, reallocate funding to other programs, or take offsets for deficit reduction. For other programs, funding must come by other means. This includes new programs, those without baseline, or discretionary programs.

    Types of Spending Authorized in the Farm Bill

    Mandatory spending. A farm bill authorizes outlays and pays for them with multiyear budget estimates when the law is enacted. Budget enforcement is through "baseline" projections under current law, "scores" of the effect of proposed bills, and "PayGo" budget rules that may prevent deficit increases. (See CRS Report R44763, Present Trends and the Evolution of Mandatory Spending.)

    Discretionary authorizations. A farm bill establishes parameters for discretionary programs and authorizes them to receive funding in subsequent appropriations acts but does not provide or assure actual funding. Budget enforcement is through future appropriations and budget resolutions. (See CRS Report R42388, The Congressional Appropriations Process: An Introduction.)

    The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and crop insurance have their own mandatory spending sources, but most other mandatory outlays are paid through the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).8

    Discretionary spending is authorized throughout the farm bill, including most rural development, credit, and research programs, among others. Some smaller research, bioenergy, and rural development programs are authorized to receive both mandatory and discretionary funding. Most agency operations (salaries and expenses) are financed with discretionary funds. Discretionary appropriations are made separately through an annual agriculture appropriations act.9

    While both types of programs are significant, mandatory programs often dominate the farm bill debate. Therefore, the majority of this report focuses on mandatory spending

    Summary of Projected Outlays in the 2018 Farm Bill Figure 1 illustrates the distribution of the $428 billion five-year total of projected mandatory outlays at enactment for the life of the 2018 farm bill (FY2019-FY2023). Figure 2 shows program-level detail for agriculture-specific programs, particularly the Farm Commodity and Conservation titles. Table 1 presents these outlays (the fifth and 10th columns), and how budgetary resources were reallocated across titles of the farm bill, for both the five- and 10-year budget windows. The terms baseline and score are explained in later sections of this report.

    Mandatory spending is authorized throughout the farm bill, but four titles presently account for about 99% of the mandatory farm bill spending: Commodities (7.3%), Nutrition (76%), Crop Insurance (8.9%), and Conservation (6.8%).

    Figure 1. Projected Outlays in the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, by Title

    (Five-year projected mandatory outlays at enactment, billions of dollars, FY2019-FY2023)

    Source: CRS. Compiled from CBO, "Baseline Projections," April 2018; at the title level (unpublished); and CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement, December 11, 2018.

    Figure 2. Projected Agriculture Outlays in the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018

    (Five-year projected mandatory outlays at enactment, billions of dollars, FY2019-FY2023)

    Sources: CRS. Compiled from CBO Baseline for USDA Mandatory Farm Programs, April 2018; at the title level (unpublished); and CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement, December 11, 2018.

    Notes: PLC = Price Loss Coverage, ARC = Agricultural Risk Coverage, LDP = Loan Deficiency Payments, EQIP = Environmental Quality Incentives Program, CRP = Conservation Reserve Program, CSP = Conservation Stewardship Program, ACEP = Agricultural Conservation Easement Program, RCPP = Regional Conservation Partnership Program, FFP = Food for Progress, NAP = Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program.

    Table 1. Budget for the 2018 Farm Bill: Baseline, Scores, and Projected Outlays

    (millions of dollars, 5- and 10-year totals, mandatory spending)

     

    5 years (FY2019-FY2023)

    10 years (FY2019-FY2028)

       

    CBO score

       

    CBO score

     

    Farm bill titles

    CBO baseline

    House passed

    Senate passed

    Enacted

    Projected outlays

    CBO baseline

    House passed

    Senate passed

    Enacted

    Projected outlays

    over 10 years ($23 billion including sequestration).7
  • The 2018 farm bill—the current bill under consideration (H.R. 2)—is being held to a budget-neutral position, though budget amounts may be reallocated across programs within issue areas and across titles of the farm bill (Table 1).

Mandatory spending is authorized throughout the farm bill, but four titles presently account for about 99% of the mandatory farm bill spending: Commodity, Nutrition, Crop Insurance, and Conservation.8 The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and crop insurance have their own mandatory spending sources, but the farm commodity programs, conservation, and most other mandatory outlays are paid through the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).9

Discretionary spending is authorized throughout the farm bill, including most rural development, credit, and research programs, among others. Some smaller research, bioenergy, and rural development programs are authorized to receive both mandatory and discretionary funding. Most agency operations (salaries and expenses) are financed with discretionary funds. Discretionary appropriations are made through the annual Agriculture appropriations act.10

While both types of programs are significant, mandatory programs often dominate the farm bill debate. Therefore, the majority of this report focuses on mandatory spending.

Importance of Baseline to the Farm Bill

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline is a projection at a particular point in time of future federal spending on mandatory programs under current law. The baseline is the benchmark against which proposed changes in law are measured. The CBO develops the budget baseline under various laws and follows the supervision of the House and Senate Budget Committees.

When a new bill is proposed that would affect mandatory spending, the cost impact (score) is measured in relation to the baseline. Changes that increase spending relative to the baseline have a positive score; those that decrease spending relative to the baseline have a negative score.11

Having a baseline essentially gives programs built-in future funding if policymakers decide that the programs should continue—that is, straightforward reauthorization would not have a scoring effect (budget neutral). However, some programs do not have a continuing baseline beyond the expiration of a farm bill and do not have assured future funding. Their reauthorization would have a positive score that increases the bill's cost.

Development of the Baseline

CBO projects future government spending via its budget baselines and evaluates proposed bills via scoring estimates. The baseline incorporates domestic and international market conditions at the time the baseline is projected, government policies, and expectations for future economic conditions. Generally, a program with estimated mandatory spending in the last year of its authorization may be assumed to continue in the baseline as if there were no change in policy and it did not expire. This is the situation for most of the major, long-standing farm bill provisions such as the farm commodity programs or supplemental nutrition assistance.12 However, some programs may not be assumed to continue in the budget baseline beyond the end of a farm bill because they are either13

  • programs with estimated mandatory spending less than a minimum $50 million scoring threshold in the last year of the farm bill, or
  • new programs established after 1997 for which the Budget Committees have determined that the mandatory spending shall not extend beyond expiration. This decision may have been made in consultation with the Agriculture Committees for a number of reasons, such as to reduce the program's 10-year cost when a farm bill is written or to prevent the program from having a continuing baseline.

April 2018 CBO Baseline

The baseline for scoring the 2018 farm bill currently under consideration is the CBO baseline that was released in April 2018. This baseline is to be used until a new annual scoring baseline is released in the spring of 2019.

The April 2018 mandatory spending baseline for farm bill programs contains $867 billion over FY2019-FY2028, 77% of which is in the Nutrition title for SNAP ($664 billion). The remaining $203 billion baseline is for agricultural programs, mostly in the Crop Insurance, Farm Commodity Programs, and Conservation titles.14 Other titles contribute about 1% of the baseline because they are funded mostly with discretionary spending.

The April 2018 CBO baseline is the benchmark of available funding from which the House and Senate wrote bills for a new farm bill in 2018. The 5-year and 10-year columns in Table 1 show the CBO baseline for the titles of the 2014 farm bill over the next 10 years. (The score columns will be discussed later in "Scores of the 2018 Farm Bill Proposals".) Figure 1 illustrates the 10-year baseline by title. Table 2 adds details at the program level and with the annual projections, for the Farm Commodity Programs, Conservation, Trade, and Miscellaneous titles. Figure 2 illustrates the 10-year, program-level baseline for agriculture (non-nutrition) programs.15

Table 1. Budget for a 2018 Farm Bill: Baseline and Scores, by Title

(projected outlays in millions of dollars, 5- and 10-year totals)

31,440

61,414

29,270

59,748

2,044

4,094

663,828

-4,558

168

694

1,219

10

612

1,022

38,010

77,933

1,944

428,282

867,270

-

867,200

0

 

5 years (FY2019-FY2023)

10 years (FY2019-FY2028)

Farm Bill Titles

CBO Baseline

CBO Score

CBO Baseline

CBO Score

 

 

House-Passed

Senate-Passed

 

House-Passed

Senate-Passed

Commodities

31,340

+198

-23

Commodities

31,340

+198

-23

+101

61,151

+284

-408

+263

Conservation

28,715

+656

+290

+555

59,754

-795

+0

-6

Trade

1,809

+235

+258

+235

3,624

+470

+515

+470

Nutrition

325,922

+862

+224

+98

326,020

-1,426

+94

+0

663,828

Credit

-2,205

+0

+0

+0

-2,205

+0

+0

+0

-4,558

Rural Developmenta

98

+0

-832

-530

-432

+0

-2,340

-2,530

-2,362

Research

329

+168

+426

+365

604

+250

+685

+615

Forestry

5

+0

+5

+0

5

+0

+5

+0

10

Energya

362

-267

+311

+109

471

-517

+375

+125

737

Horticulture

772

+10

+323

+250

1,547

+10

+626

+500

2,047

Crop Insurance

38,057

-70

-1

-47

78,037

-161

-2

-104

Miscellaneous

1,259

+553

+594

+685

2,423

+566

+517

+738

3,161

Subtotal

426,462

+2,344

+1,573

1,573

+1,820

867,200

-1,320

+68

68

+70

Increase in Revenue

- Increase revenue

-

+115

+33

+35

35

+465

+68

+70

70

Total

426,462

+2,229

+1,540

+1,785

428,247

-1,785

+0

+0

867,200

Source: CRS. Compiled from the CBO Baseline by Title (unpublished; April 2018), based on the CBO baseline; CBO Baseline, April 2018, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs, April 2018, and the; CBO cost estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate Amendment to H.R. 2 as passed by the Senate, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018.

Note:

a. The House bill combined rural development and energy provisions into a Rural Infrastructure and Economic Development title. This table retains the separate titles, based on provisions, to maintain consistency with the 2014 farm bill, the CBO baseline, and the Senate bill.

Figure 1. CBO Baseline for Farm Bill Titles

(10-year projected outlays under current law, FY2019-FY2028, billions of dollars)

Source: CRS, using CBO Baseline by Title (unpublished; April 2018), based on the CBO baseline, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs, April 2018.

Figure 2. CBO Baseline for USDA Agriculture Programs

(10-year projected outlays under current law, FY2019-FY2028, billions of dollars)

Source: CRS, using CBO Baseline by Title (unpublished; April 2018), and CBO Baseline for USDA Mandatory Farm Programs, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#25, April 2018.

Notes: CRP = Conservation Reserve Program, CSP = Conservation Stewardship Program, EQIP = Environmental Quality Incentives Program, ACEP = Agricultural Conservation Easement Program, RCPP = Regional Conservation Partnership Program, PLC = Price Loss Coverage, ARC = Agricultural Risk Coverage, LDP = Loan Deficiency Payments, MAP = Market Assistance Program, FFP = Food for Progress, NAP = Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program, SCRI = Specialty Crop Research Initiative, SCBG = Specialty Crop Block Grants, PPDM = Plant Pest and Disease Management, REAP = Rural Energy for America Program.

Table 2. CBO Baseline for; and CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement for H.R. 2, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54880, December 11, 2018.

Note: Baseline for the Credit title is negative because of receipts to the Farm Credit System Insurance Fund. Baseline for the Rural Development "cushion of credit" is accounted for outside of the farm bill.

Importance of Baseline to the Farm Bill

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline is a projection at a particular point in time of future federal spending on mandatory programs under current law. The baseline is the benchmark against which proposed changes in law are measured. The CBO develops the budget baseline under various laws and follows the supervision of the House and Senate Budget Committees.

When a new bill is proposed that would affect mandatory spending, the score (cost impact) is measured in relation to the baseline. Changes that increase spending relative to the baseline have a positive score; those that decrease spending relative to the baseline have a negative score.

Having a baseline essentially gives programs built-in future funding if policymakers decide that the programs should continue—that is, straightforward reauthorization would not have a scoring effect (budget neutral).

Once a new law is passed, the projected outlays at enactment equal the baseline plus the score. This sum becomes the budget foundation of the new law.

Development of the Baseline

CBO periodically projects future government spending via its budget baselines, and evaluates proposed bills via scoring estimates. The baseline incorporates domestic and international economic conditions at the time the baseline is projected.

Generally, a program with estimated mandatory spending in the last year of its authorization may be assumed to continue in the baseline as if there were no change in policy and it did not expire. This is the situation for most of the major, long-standing farm bill provisions such as the farm commodity programs or supplemental nutrition assistance.10 However, some programs do not continue in the baseline beyond the end of a farm bill because they are either11

  • programs with estimated mandatory spending less than a minimum $50 million scoring threshold in the last year of the farm bill, or
  • new programs established after 1997 for which the Budget Committees have determined that mandatory spending shall not extend beyond expiration. This decision may have been made in consultation with the Agriculture Committees for a number of reasons, such as to reduce the program's 10-year cost when a farm bill is written or to prevent the program from having a continuing baseline.

The 2014 farm bill had 39 programs without baseline beyond FY2018 that received $2.824 billion in mandatory funding over five years.12

CBO Baseline: April 2018 The CBO baseline that was used to develop the 2018 farm bill was released in April 2018 (the first and sixth data columns in Table 1).13 It projected that if the 2014 farm bill were extended, as amended as of April 2018, farm bill programs would cost $426 billion over the next five years (FY2019-FY2023) and $867 billion over the next 10 years (FY2019-2028).14 Most of the 10-year amount, 77%, was in the Nutrition title for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The remaining 23%, $203 billion baseline, was for agricultural programs, mostly in crop insurance, farm commodity programs, and conservation. Other titles of the farm bill contributed about 1% of the baseline, some of which are funded primarily with discretionary spending. Table 2 presents the April 2018 baseline by farm bill title with some program-level details for select titles. Table 2. CBO Baseline to Develop the 2018 Farm Bill, by Title and Program

(projected outlays in millions of dollars, April 2018 baseline)

 

Fiscal year

5 years

10 years

 

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

FY2019-23

FY2019-28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Title I: Title IFarm Commodity Programs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agricultural RiskPrice Loss Coverage

2,627

727

2,155

653

464

5,742

430

5,006

479

4,574

431

4,639

463

4,603

482

4,854

505

4,558

492

4,566

6,155

20,702

8,529

43,921

Price LossAgricultural Risk Coverage

2,727

627

2,653

155

5,742

464

5,006

430

4,574

479

4,639

431

4,603

463

4,854

482

4,558

505

4,566

492

20,702

6,155

43,921

8,529

Marketing Loan Program

Disaster assistance programs

58

364

51

361

51

391

48

390

45

388

44

386

43

389

47

388

48

387

50

425

254

1,893

486

3,868

Dairy

Other

186

524

161

241

160

228

177

235

173

251

177

252

191

244

128

253

134

255

137

240

857

1,479

1,624

2,723

Disaster assistance programs

Dairy

364

186

361

161

391

160

390

177

388

173

386

177

389

191

388

128

387

134

425

137

1,893

857

3,868

1,624

Other

Marketing Loan Program

524

58

241

51

228

51

235

48

251

45

252

44

244

43

253

47

255

48

240

50

1,479

254

2,723

486

Subtotal, Title I

6,487

5,621

7,035

6,286

5,910

5,930

5,934

6,151

5,886

5,910

31,340

61,151

Title II: Conservation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conservation Reserve Program

1,819

1,999

2,042

2,083

2,126

2,169

2,209

2,223

2,213

2,214

10,069

21,097

Emergency Forestry Conservation Reserve

Conservation Security/Stewardship Program

1

,607

1

,822

1

,743

1

,772

1

,820

1

,771

1

,768

1

,810

1

,808

1

,808

5

8,764

10

17,729

CRP Technical Assistance

Environmental Quality Incentives Program

100

1,509

37

1,545

77

1,600

72

1,640

147

1,674

106

1,729

169

1,750

91

1,750

94

1,750

85

1,750

433

7,968

978

16,697

Conservation Security/Stewardship Program

Agricultural Conservation Easement Program

1,607

310

1,822

271

1,743

266

1,772

250

1,820

250

1,771

250

1,768

250

1,810

250

1,808

250

1,808

250

8,764

1,347

17,729

2,597

Environmental Quality IncentivesRegional Conservation Partnership Program

1,509

127

1,545

125

1,600

121

1,640

107

1,674

98

1,729

100

1,750

100

1,750

100

1,750

100

1,750

100

7,968

578

16,697

1,078

Agricultural Conservation Easement Program

CRP Technical Assistance

310

100

271

37

266

77

250

72

250

147

250

106

250

169

250

91

250

94

250

85

1,347

433

2,597

978

Regional Conservation Partnership Program

Agricultural Management Assistance

127

9

125

9

121

9

107

10

98

10

100

10

100

10

100

10

100

10

100

10

578

47

1,078

97

Agricultural Management Assistance

Emergency Forestry Conservation Reserve

9

1

9

1

9

1

10

1

10

1

10

1

10

1

10

1

10

1

10

1

47

5

97

10

Programs repealed in 2014 and user fees

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-4

-20

-40

Other, incl. announced FY2019 sequestration

-233

-75

-75

-51

-42

-27

15

-1

0

0

-476

-489

Subtotal, Title II

5,245

5,730

5,780

5,880

6,080

6,105

6,268

6,230

6,222

6,214

28,715

59,754

Title III: Trade

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Access Program

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

1,000

2,000

Food for Progress

153

154

154

154

154

155

155

155

155

155

769

1,544

Emerging Markets Program

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

40

80

Subtotal, Title III

361

362

362

362

362

363

363

363

363

363

1,809

3,624

Title IV: Nutrition

65,817

65,268

65,033

64,857

64,947

65,477

66,247

67,151

68,720

70,311

325,922

663,828

Title V: Credit

-435

-437

-440

-444

-449

-455

-462

-471

-478

-487

-2,205

-4,558

Title VI: Rural Development

35

21

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

98

168

Title VII: Research

82

78

59

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

329

604

Title VIII: Forestry

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

5

10

Title IX: Energy

102

89

70

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

362

612

Title X: Horticulture

153

154

155

155

155

155

155

155

155

155

772

1,547

Title XI: Crop Insurance

7,230

7,471

7,684

7,811

7,860

7,903

7,942

8,006

8,047

8,082

38,057

78,037

Title XII: Miscellaneous

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program

223

223

223

223

223

223

223

223

223

223

1,114

2,229

Other

71

37

12

12

12

10

10

10

10

10

145

195

Subtotal, Title XII

294

259

235

235

235

233

233

233

233

233

1,259

2,423

Total

85,372

84,617

85,989

85,263

85,221

85,831

86,800

87,938

89,268

90,901

426,462

867,200

Nutrition (Title IV)

65,817

65,268

65,033

64,857

64,947

65,477

66,247

67,151

68,720

70,311

325,922

663,828

Non-nutrition (other titles)

19,555

19,350

20,955

20,406

20,274

20,354

20,553

20,787

20,548

20,590

100,540

203,372

Source: CRS, compiled using the CBO Baseline by Title (unpublished; April 2018; in bold), and based on additional details for programs from the CBO baseline Source: CRS. Compiled using CBO, "Baseline Projections for Selected Programs," April 2018, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs, April 2018 (in italics).

Note: Near-term amounts may include outlays for programs that expired before FY2019. Among titles without program detail, Nutrition includes SNAP, Credit includes receipts to FCS Insurance Fund. Research includes SCRI. Energy includes REAP, Horticulture includes SCBG, PPDM, and promotion orders, as noted in Figure 2.

Programs Without Baseline

As explained above, most of the major farm bill provisions are assumed to continue in the baseline. However, some programs may not be assumed to continue, because they had estimated mandatory spending below the minimum scoring threshold of $50 million or the Budget and/or Agriculture Committees determined that mandatory spending should not continue.

The 2014 farm bill contains 39 programs that received mandatory funding that do not have baseline beyond FY2018 (Figure 3). These programs had estimated mandatory spending totaling $2.824 billion over the five-year farm bill.16

Among this group are certain conservation programs; most of the Bioenergy, Rural Development, and Research title programs; various Nutrition title pilot programs and studies; organic agriculture and farmers' market programs; trade promotion; and outreach to farmers.17

Figure 3. 2014 Farm Bill Programs Without a Budget Baseline After FY2018

Sources: Compiled by CRS using the text of the 2014 farm bill (P.L. 113-79); the CBO score of the Agricultural Act of 2014, Table 4, "Detailed Effects on Direct Spending," January 28, 2014, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45049; and the CBO Baseline Projection for USDA Mandatory Farm Programs, April 2018.

Scores of the 2018 Farm Bill Proposals

The budgetary impact of the 2018 farm bill proposals (House-passed H.R. 2 and the Senate-passed amendment to H.R. 2) are measured relative to the CBO baseline—that is, what the 2014 farm bill (current law) would have spent had it continued. Budget enforcement uses the April 2018 baseline and these scores to follow an array of federal budget rules, such as "PayGo," that require budgetary offsets to balance new spending to avoid increasing the federal deficit.18

Although the farm bill is generally considered a 5-year authorization—the potential 2018 farm bill would cover FY2019-FY2023—budget rules require it to be scored over a 10-year budget window. Thus, when the legislation is discussed during its development, the farm bill may be presented more in terms of its effect over the 10-year budget window than the score of the bill over the intended 5-year duration of the law. Separately, other statements about the total cost of the farm bill may be in terms of its five-year baseline (i.e., projected spending over the five-year life of the farm bill). Both are appropriate measures depending on one's perspective, but the two can be very different in magnitude, so it is important to differentiate between them.

CBO has released several scores of the 2018 farm bill in the various stages of its development. The most recent is an update that was released jointly for both bills on July 24, 2018, for the versions of H.R. 2 as passed by the House and the Senate and is the basis for the analysis here.19

Prior to the July 24 scores, CBO released its analyses of the original House-introduced bill,20 the House-reported bill after it passed the full committee and was initially considered on the floor,21 and the Senate-reported bill.22 The July 24 scores incorporate floor amendments from both chambers' bills that caused the House bill to reduce spending compared with the House-reported bill—particularly in the Nutrition title—and the Senate bill to spend slightly more than the Senate-reported bill in the Nutrition, Farm Commodities, and Miscellaneous titles. Subsequent to the July 24 scores, CBO released a more detailed assessment of payment limit provisions in the House-passed bill that did not change the score but explained it in more detail.23

Summaries of the House- and Senate-Passed Bill Scores

Relative to the 10-year $867 billion baseline (Table 1, Figure 1), the House-passed bill would reduce outlays by $1.8 billion over 10 years (-0.2%), and the Senate-passed bill would remain budget neutral (+0%) over the same 10-year period (as indicated by the diamonds in Figure 4).

The overall relatively small scores are the net result of sometimes relatively larger increases and reductions across titles (indicated by bar segments in Figure 4, Table 1).

  • The House-passed bill would achieve its overall net reduction by reducing net outlays in four titles (Nutrition, Conservation, Energy, and Crop insurance) and by raising revenue from fees paid by contractors in the SNAP program. It would increase spending by less than the total of these reductions across five other titles (Miscellaneous, Trade, Commodities, Research, and Horticulture).
  • The Senate-passed bill would achieve its budget-neutral outcome by reducing net spending in three titles (Rural Development, Commodities, and Crop insurance) and raising revenue for an oilheat program. It would increase spending across seven titles (Research, Horticulture, Miscellaneous, Trade, Energy, Nutrition, and Forestry).

Figure 4. CBO Scores of the House-Passed and Senate-Passed (in italics). The total baseline for the farm bill is published in the table notes in CBO, "Cost Estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House of Representatives and as passed by the Senate," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018, and at the title level in an unpublished CBO table, April 2018. (in bold).

Note: Near-term amounts may include outlays for programs that expired before FY2019 but still make outlays that have been obligated. For the titles without program detail: Nutrition includes SNAP; Credit includes receipts to Farm Credit System Insurance Fund; Research includes the Specialty Crop Research Initiative; Energy includes the Rural Energy for America Program; Horticulture includes Specialty Crop Block Grants, Plant Pest and Disease Management, and promotion orders.

Scores of the 2018 Farm Bill

The CBO score measures the budgetary impact of changes made by the 2018 farm bill. It is measured relative to its benchmark—the CBO baseline. Budget enforcement procedures follow an array of federal budget rules, such as "PayGo," which required budgetary offsets to balance new spending to avoid increasing the federal deficit.15

Although the farm bill is a five-year authorization—the 2018 farm bill covers FY2019-FY2023—budget rules required it to be scored over a 10-year budget window. Thus, when the farm bill is discussed during legislative development, it may be more often presented by its effect over the 10-year budget window than the five-year duration of the law. Separately, statements about the total cost of the farm bill may be in terms of its five-year outlays (i.e., projected spending over the five-year life of the farm bill). Both can be accurate measures of the farm bill budget depending on the context.

CBO released several interim scores of the 2018 farm bill during the various stages of its development. These include scores of the effects of the

  • House-introduced bill (H.R. 2),16
  • House-reported bill (H.R. 2),17
  • Senate-reported bill (S. 3042),18
  • House-passed bill (H.R. 2) and the Senate-passed Amendment to H.R. 2 (the second, third, seventh and eighth columns in Table 1; see also the more detailed section-level scores in Appendix A),19 Conference agreement for H.R. 2 (the fourth and ninth columns in Table 1; see also the more detailed section-level scores in Table 3).20

    Subsequent to the House-passed score, CBO released a more detailed assessment of the farm commodity program payment limit provisions in the House-passed bill. This score did not change the amounts but explained background for the score of those provisions in greater detail.21

    Summary of Title-Level Scores Figure 3 shows the distribution of the title-level changes (scores) in the 2018 farm bill conference agreement and the House- and Senate-passed bills that preceded it.
    • Relative to the baseline, the overall score of the 2018 farm bill is budget neutral over a 10-year period.
    • The House-passed bill would have decreased 10-year outlays by $1.8 billion, and the Senate-passed bill was budget neutral.

    The overall relatively small or budget-neutral net scores are the result of sometimes relatively larger increases and reductions across titles.

    • Generally, the enacted farm bill follows the scoring approach of the Senate bill more closely than the House bill.
    • In the new law, as in the Senate-passed bill, most of the reductions are from the Rural Development title.
    • Six titles in the law have increased outlays over the 10-year period, including Commodities, Trade, Research, Energy, Horticulture, and Miscellaneous.
    • The House-passed bill would have made 10-year reductions in outlays in the Conservation, Nutrition, Energy, and Crop Insurance titles that the conference agreement did not adopt.

    Figure 3. CBO Scores of the House, Senate, and Enacted 2018 Farm Bills, by Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Sources Farm Bills, by Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, using the CBO cost estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate Amendment to H.R. 2 as passed by the Senate, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018, and CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement for H.R. 2, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54880, December 11, 2018.

    Note: Does not show amounts less than $50 million that are presented in Table 1.

    Table 3. CBO Score of the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, as Enacted, by Section

    (projected change in outlays relative to April 2018 baseline, millions of dollars)

     

    Fiscal year

    5 years

    10 years

     

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2019-23

    2019-28

    Title ICommodities

                           

    Dairy Risk Management Payments

    -19

    -15

    -26

    -11

    -15

    +20

    -39

    -49

    -39

    -64

    -86

    -257

    ARC—Countya

    +0

    +0

    -24

    -28

    -28

    -20

    -23

    -20

    -22

    -20

    -81

    -186

    Repeal Dairy Product Donation Program

    -5

    -5

    -6

    -6

    -6

    -5

    -6

    -6

    -5

    -5

    -28

    -54

    ARC—Individuala

    +0

    +0

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -2

    -5

    Tree Assistance Program

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +2

    +4

    Cattle Tick Fever Inspections

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +4

    +7

    Administrative Units for Large Counties

    +0

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +3

    +7

    Livestock Indemnity Payments

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +4

    +8

    Modified Sugar Loan Rates

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +2

    +2

    +3

    +1

    +9

    Payment Limitations for Supplemental Disaster

    +2

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +8

    +15

    Implementationb

    +15

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +16

    +16

    Payment Limitations—Family Definition

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +20

    +40

    Milk Donation Program

    +9

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +29

    +54

    Margin Protection Premium Refund Credit 75%

    +58

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +58

    +58

    Dairy Risk Management, Livestock Gross Margin

    +1

    +10

    +13

    +14

    +14

    +13

    +14

    +14

    +16

    +14

    +52

    +123

    Modified Marketing Assistance Loan Ratesa

    +0

    +27

    +22

    +16

    +16

    +13

    +12

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +81

    +136

    PLCa

    +0

    +0

    -65

    +23

    +38

    +26

    +26

    +26

    +36

    +28

    -4

    +137

    Annual ARC/PLC Enrollmenta

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +25

    +25

    +26

    +26

    +25

    +26

    +25

    +153

    Subtotal, Title I

    +67

    +30

    -74

    +21

    +57

    +84

    +24

    +16

    +36

    +2

    +101

    +263

    Title IIConservation

                           

    Conservation Stewardship Program

    -25

    -358

    -796

    -1,103

    -1,387

    -1,562

    -1,768

    -1,810

    -1,808

    -1,808

    -3,669

    -12,426

    Conservation Reserve Program

    +38

    -52

    -110

    -80

    +15

    +119

    +33

    +37

    -0

    +1

    -189

    -0

    Grassroots Source Water Protection Programb

    +2

    +2

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Voluntary Public Access and Habitat Incentiveb

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +50

    +50

    Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilotc

    +15

    +25

    +20

    +10

    +5

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +75

    +75

    Watershed Rehabilitation/Operationsd

    +2

    +8

    +19

    +29

    +37

    +42

    +45

    +45

    +45

    +45

    +95

    +317

    Regional Conservation Partnership Program

    +80

    +141

    +157

    +174

    +191

    +200

    +200

    +200

    +200

    +200

    +742

    +1,742

    Agricultural Conservation Easement Program

    +73

    +151

    +177

    +187

    +198

    +197

    +198

    +199

    +199

    +200

    +786

    +1,779

    EQIP and CSP

    +170

    +356

    +539

    +692

    +903

    +1,019

    +1,100

    +1,184

    +1,233

    +1,257

    +2,660

    +8,451

    Subtotal, Title II

    +365

    +283

    +17

    -81

    -29

    +15

    -192

    -146

    -131

    -106

    +555

    -6

    Title IIITrade

                            Agricultural Trade Promotion and Facilitationd

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +235

    +470

    Subtotal, Title III

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +235

    +470

    Title IVNutrition

                           

    Interstate Data Matching Multiple Issuances

    +0

    -6

    -25

    -40

    -60

    -75

    -90

    -90

    -95

    -95

    -131

    -576

    Quality Control Improvements

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -240

    -480

    Assistance for Community Food Projects

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -20

    -40

    Child Support Enforcement Cooperation

    +1

    +3

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Food Distribution on Indian Reservations

    +0

    +3

    +3

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +14

    +34

    Longitudinal Data for Research

    +0

    +11

    +11

    +1

    +3

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +26

    +51

    Improvements to EBT System

    +0

    +3

    +8

    +14

    +21

    +15

    +8

    +1

    +2

    +2

    +46

    +74

    Simplified Homeless Housing Costs

    +3

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +35

    +75

    Emergency Food Assistance Program

    +12

    +24

    +23

    +23

    +23

    +19

    +20

    +20

    +21

    +21

    +105

    +206

    Employment and Training for SNAP

    +19

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +24

    +115

    +234

    Schumacher Nutrition Incentive Programd

    +6

    +16

    +28

    +43

    +50

    +52

    +54

    +56

    +56

    +56

    +143

    +417

    Subtotal, Title IV

    -12

    +33

    +29

    +26

    +21

    -0

    -19

    -24

    -27

    -27

    +98

    +0

    Title VCredit

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    Title VIRural Development

                           

    Reduction in Interest to Cushion of Credit

    -50

    -150

    -350

    -380

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -1,330

    -3,330

    Modify Loans Under Rural Electrification

    +800

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +800

    +800

    Subtotal, Title VI

    +750

    -150

    -350

    -380

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -400

    -530

    -2,530

    Title VIIResearch and Extension

                            Emerging Agricultural Production Researchc

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +10

    +10

    Scholarships for Students at 1890 Institutionsc

    +0

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +40

    +40

    Foundation for Food and Agriculture Researchb

    +0

    +185

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +185

    +185

    Organic Agriculture Research and Extensiond

    +17

    +19

    +23

    +29

    +43

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +130

    +380

    Subtotal, Title VII

    +19

    +216

    +35

    +41

    +55

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +365

    +615

    Title VIIIForestry

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    Title IXEnergy

                            Biobased Market Programb

    +2

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +14

    +15

    Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuelsb

    +2

    +4

    +5

    +7

    +7

    +5

    +3

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +25

    +35

    Biorefinery Assistanceb

    +0

    +10

    +20

    +23

    +18

    +5

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +70

    +75

    Subtotal, Title IX

    +4

    +17

    +28

    +32

    +28

    +11

    +3

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +109

    +125

    Title XHorticulture

                            Multiple Crop and Pesticide Use Surveyc

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +1

    +1

    Organic Production and Market Data Initiativesb

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Organic Certification/Trade Tracking and Datab

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    National Organic Certification Cost Shareb

    +0

    +0

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +24

    +24

    Local Agriculture Market Programd

    +28

    +38

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +215

    +465

    Subtotal, Title X

    +30

    +40

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +250

    +500

    Title XICrop Insurance

                           

    Increase CAT Coverage Administrative Fee

    -1

    -12

    -14

    -14

    -14

    -14

    -14

    -14

    -14

    -14

    -55

    -125

    Funding for Research and Development

    -0

    -4

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -18

    -40

    Enterprise Units Across County Lines

    -0

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -12

    -27

    Program Administration

    -0

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -8

    -18

    Crop Production on Native Sod

    -0

    -0

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -2

    -4

    Submission of Policies and Materials to Board

    +0

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +3

    +8

    Research and Development Authority

    +0

    +1

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +6

    +13

    Treatment of Forage and Grazing

    +1

    +9

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +40

    +90

    Subtotal, Title XI

    -1

    -10

    -12

    -12

    -12

    -12

    -12

    -12

    -12

    -11

    -47

    -104

    Title XIIMiscellaneous

                           

    Extension of Merchandise Processing Fee

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    -371

    +0

    +0

    -371

    Sheep Production and Marketing Grantsb

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +2

    +2

    Wool Research and Promotionb

    +0

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +9

    +10

    National Oilheat Research Alliance

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +35

    +70

    Pima Agriculture Cotton Trust Fundb

    +16

    +16

    +16

    +16

    +16

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +80

    +80

    Wool Apparel Manufacturers Trust Fundb

    +0

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +120

    +120

    Emergency Citrus Trust Fundc

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +125

    +125

    Animal Disease Prevention and Management

    +60

    +48

    +6

    +6

    +29

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +149

    +299

    Farming Opportunities Training and Outreachd

    +27

    +30

    +33

    +35

    +41

    +45

    +48

    +48

    +49

    +50

    +166

    +404

    Subtotal, Title XII

    +136

    +159

    +119

    +122

    +149

    +82

    +85

    +85

    -285

    +87

    +685

    +738

    Total Changes in Direct Spending

    +1,406

    +664

    -101

    -124

    -25

    -73

    -365

    -333

    -672

    -307

    +1,820

    +70

    Increases in Revenue: Title XII—Oilheat

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +35

    +70

    Net Effect on the Deficit

    +1,399

    +657

    -108

    -131

    -32

    -80

    -372

    -340

    -679

    -314

    +1,785

    -0

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement for H.R. 2, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54880, December 11, 2018.

    Notes: + denotes additional spending or, in the case of revenue, additional revenue. – denotes reduced spending.

    a. The scoring effect is delayed because the farm commodity programs operate by "crop year" (when the crop is harvested), and some payments are delayed by statute into a later fiscal year. For example, ARC and PLC payments for the 2019 crop year (the first covered by the 2018 farm bill) do not occur by statue until FY2021. Payments under the marketing loan program are delayed generally by one fiscal year. b. Denotes a 2014 farm bill "program without baseline" that received new funding in the 2018 farm bill over FY2019-FY2023 but not permanent baseline. (The complete list of programs without baseline prior to the farm bill is identified in CRS Report R44758, Farm Bill Programs Without a Budget Baseline Beyond FY2018.) c. Denotes a new "program without baseline" created in the 2018 farm bill. d. Denotes a 2014 farm bill "program without baseline" that received new funding in the 2018 farm bill over FY2019-FY2028 and permanent baseline. The six provisions noted here cover nine programs from the list of programs without baseline because of consolidation within (1) trade programs; (2) farmers market, local food, and rural entrepreneurship programs; and (3) beginning farmer and outreach programs. Net Increases in Five-Year Outlays Are Followed by Net Decreases When separated into the five- and 10-year budget windows, each version of the 2018 farm bill shows a similar pattern of changes in projected outlays. Figure 4 show the scores for the first five years, the second five years, and the 10-year total for the enacted conference agreement.
    • The enacted farm bill increases net outlays in the first five years by $1.8 billion, which is offset by the same amount of net reductions in outlays during the second five years. Therefore, the 10-year net score is budget neutral.
    • In the enacted law, the Conservation and Nutrition titles—which have increases in outlays over the first five years—have decreases during the second five years. Both titles are budget-neutral over the 10-year period. This may occur because of the time needed to implement changes or to make provisions more appealing in the early years despite having less baseline for a future farm bill.
    A similar pattern held for the House-passed bill (Figure 5) and the Senate-passed bill (Figure 6). In both of those versions, the Conservation and Nutrition titles had increases in the first five years followed by decreases in the second five years. The House-passed bill had reductions in the Nutrition title that were not retained in the conference agreement. The Senate-passed bill would have reduced baseline for the Commodities title, whereas the conference agreement is projected to increase it.

    Figure 4. CBO Score of Enacted 2018 Farm Bill, by Period and Title

    (projected change in five- and 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, using the CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement for H.R. 2, December 11, 2018.

    Note: Does not show amounts less than $50 million that are indicated in Table 1.
    Net Increases in Five-Year Outlays Are Followed by Net Decreases

    For the House-passed bill, the net reduction of $1.8 billion over 10 years may be disaggregated into 2 time periods. On a shorter-time-period basis, the five-year score for the authorized life of the bill (FY2019-FY2023) shows a net increase of $2.2 billion over the comparable baseline of $426 billion (Table 1). This projected increase is more than offset by planned reductions that would not be realized until the second five years of the budget window (Figure 5).

    For the Senate-passed bill, when the budget-neutral 10-year score is disaggregated, the effect is similar. The five-year FY2019-FY2023 score of the Senate bill shows a net increase of $1.6 billion that is offset by net reductions that would occur during the second five years (Figure 6).

    In both bills, some of the titles that have increases in the first five years have decreases in the second five years (e.g., the Nutrition and Conservation titles in both the House- and Senate-passed bills). This may occur because of the time needed to implement changes and may make provisions more appealing in the early years despite having less baseline for a future farm bill.

    Figure 5. CBO Score of House-Passed H.R. 2, by Period and Title

    (projected change in 5five- and 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, using the CBO cost estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018.

    Note: Does not show amounts less than $50 million that are indicated in Table 1.

    Figure 6. CBO Score of the Senate-Passed Amendment to H.R. 2, by Period and Title

    (projected change in 5five- and 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, using the CBO cost estimates for the Senate Amendment to H.R. 2 as passed by the Senate, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018.

    Note: Does not show amounts less than $50 million that are indicated in Table 1.

    Section-by-Section Scores for Some Titles Exceed Their Net Scores

    Some of the overall scores within a single titlenet scores for single titles presented above are the net result of increases in some sections (provisions) that are offset by reductions in other sectionsand decreases by provisions within the same title. Sometimes, these increases or decreases are relatively large compared to the net title-level effect. These budget effects may reflect the policy preferences of particular constituenciespolicy proposals that may be lessnot be apparent in the net title-level scores that are shown in the previous figures. For example

    • In the House-passed bill, the Nutrition title has six sections that sum to a $22.0enacted law, the Conservation title has one section with a $12.4 billion reduction over 10 years (including those for work requirements) and 18reducing the Conservation Stewardship Program) and seven sections that add to $20.612.4 billion in increased spending—for a relatively small $1.4 billion net decrease in the title-level score. Similarly, the Conservation title has two sections that sum to a $12.6 (Figure 7). In the House-passed bill, the Nutrition title had six sections that summed to a $22.0 billion reduction over 10 years (including repealing the Conservation Stewardship Program) and eightthose for work requirements) and 18 sections that add to $11.8added to $20.6 billion in increased spending—for the relatively small net $0.8 billion decrease (Figure 7, Table 3. Similarly, the Conservation title had two sections that summed to a $12.6 billion reduction and eight sections that added to $11.8 billion in increased spending (Figure 8).
    • In the Senate-passed bill, none of the titles' section-by-section scores arewere as large as for the Nutrition and Conservation titles in the House-passed bill. Nonetheless, the section-by-section scores of the Senate-passed bill showshowed both increases and decreases within some titles, such as Conservation, Nutrition, and Commodities (Figure 8, Table 4).

    Programs Without Baseline

    For some of the programs without baseline, both the House-passed and Senate-passed bills would provide continuing funding and, in some cases, permanent baseline. Permanent baseline for a program may be indicated by the continuation of funding in the FY2024-FY2028 period that is similar to FY2019-FY2023 (Table 3 and Table 4).

    • In the House bill, programs that receive permanent baseline include Trade title programs that are combined into a new program ($470 million), and a food insecurity program in the Nutrition title ($472 million). Other affected programs that receive mandatory funding, but not permanent baseline, include organic research and beginning farmer programs in the Research title ($250 million), two organic programs in the Horticulture title ($10 million), and outreach for socially disadvantaged farmers and the wool and cotton trust funds in the Miscellaneous title ($150 million). In the Conservation title, small watershed rehabilitation, wetlands mitigation, voluntary public access, and grassroots source water protection programs receive over $500 million of mandatory funding.
    • In the Senate bill, more programs receive permanent baseline than in the House bill, including Trade title programs ($515 million), organic research ($450 million), the beginning farmer program that would be combined with other outreach programs ($466 million), farmers market and value-added promotion programs that are combined ($558 million), and a food insecurity program in the Nutrition title ($401 million). Other affected programs that receive mandatory funding, but not permanent baseline, include an agricultural research foundation ($200 million); various bioenergy programs ($375 million); two other horticulture programs ($63 million); and the Pima cotton, wool, and citrus programs in the Miscellaneous title ($326 million).

    Figure 7. CBO Score of House-Passed H.R. 2, by Section and Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimate for H.R. 2 as passed by the House, July 24, 2018.

    Note: Figure indicates magnitude of changes within titles. Details about individual sections are in Table 3.

    Figure 8. CBO Score of Senate-Passed Amendment to H.R. 2, by Section and Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimate for H.R. 2 as passed by the Senate, July 24, 2018.

    Note: Figure indicates magnitude of changes within titles. Details about individual sections are in Table 4.

    Table 3in the Conservation, Nutrition, Commodities and Miscellaneous titles (Figure 9).

    Figure 7. CBO Score of Enacted 2018 Farm Bill, by Section and Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost of the conference agreement for H.R. 2, December 11, 2018.

    Notes: Figure indicates magnitude of changes within titles. Details about individual sections are in Table 3.

    Figure 8. CBO Score of House-Passed H.R. 2, by Section and Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimate for H.R. 2 as passed by the House, July 24, 2018.

    Notes: Figure indicates magnitude of changes within titles. Details about individual sections are in Table A-1.

    Figure 9. CBO Score of Senate-Passed Amendment to H.R. 2, by Section and Title

    (projected change in 10-year outlays relative to baseline, FY2019-FY2028)

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimate for H.R. 2 as passed by the Senate, July 24, 2018.

    Notes: Figure indicates magnitude of changes within titles. Details about individual sections are in Table A-2. Outcome for the Programs Without Baseline For 23 of the 39 of the "programs without baseline" from the 2014 farm bill,22 the 2018 farm bill provides continuing funding and, in some cases, permanent baseline for future farm bills (see the footnotes in Table 3).
    • Fourteen of the programs without baseline received mandatory funding during FY2019-FY2023 but no baseline beyond the end of the farm bill.
    • Nine of the programs without baseline received mandatory funding and permanent baseline beyond the end of the farm bill. Three of these programs were combined with six others into six provisions in the 2018 farm bill.

    In addition, five provisions in the 2018 farm bill created new programs without baseline for the next farm bill.

    Projected Outlays at Enactment

    When a new law is passed, the projected cost at enactment equals the baseline plus the score. This sum becomes the foundation of the new law and may be compared to future CBO baselines as an indicator of how actual costs develop as the law is implemented and conditions change.23

    Table 4 shows the result of this calculation by updating the farm bill baseline (Table 2) by adding the score for programs that were changed by the farm bill (Table 3). The $428 billion projected five-year total for the life of the 2018 farm bill (FY2019-FY2023) is illustrated in Figure 1. Agriculture program-level detail is illustrated in Figure 2. Table 1 summarizes these amounts by title for the five- and 10-year budget windows (the fifth and 10th columns). SNAP accounts for 76% of the $428 billion five-year total. The remaining 24%, $102 billion of projected outlays, is for agricultural programs, mostly in crop insurance (8.9%), farm commodity programs (7.3%), and conservation (6.8%). Relative to historical farm bill spending, Figure 10 shows mandatory outlays for the four largest titles—Nutrition, Crop Insurance, Farm Commodity Programs, and Conservation—that account for 99% of projected spending in the 2018 farm bill. The figure shows the following trends:
    • SNAP outlays, which compose most of the Nutrition title, increased markedly after the recession in 2009 and have been gradually decreasing since 2012.24
    • Crop insurance outlays increased steadily over the period, especially as higher market prices and program participation over the past decade have raised the value of insurable commodities.25
    • Farm commodity programs outlays generally rise and fall inversely with commodity markets. They were high after losses in the early 2000s, generally trended lower under the direct payment program, and tended to increase after a return to counter-cyclical programs in the 2014 farm bill.26
    • Conservation program outlays have grown steadily but have leveled off in recent years.27

    Figure 10. Actual and Projected Spending by Major Farm Bill Mandatory Programs

    Source: CRS.

    Notes: Darker shades of each color are actual outlays based on USDA data. Lighter shades are CBO data (actuals for FY2016, estimates for FY2017-FY2018, and CRS analysis of CBO data for projections at enactment of the 2018 farm bill for FY2019-FY2028). Compiled using USDA Farm Service Agency, Agricultural Outlook, Table 35; USDA Risk Management Agency, "Program Costs and Outlays by Fiscal Year"; J. Glauber, "Crop Insurance Reconsidered," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004; USDA Farm Service Agency, "Output 3," Commodity Estimates Book; USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, "Soil and Water Conservation Expenditures, 1935-2010," 2011; and USDA Food and Nutrition Service, "National Level Annual Summary, Participation and Costs," CBO Baseline, various issues, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs; and CBO cost estimate of the conference agreement for H.R. 2, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54880, December 11, 2018. Table 4. Projected Outlays Under the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, at Enactment, by Title and Program

    (projected outlays in millions of dollars)

     

    Fiscal year

    5 years

    10 years

     

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    FY2019-23

    FY2019-28

    Title IFarm Commodity Programs

                           

    Price Loss Coverage

    2,727

    2,653

    5,676

    5,029

    4,637

    4,690

    4,655

    4,906

    4,619

    4,619

    20,722

    44,211

    Agricultural Risk Coverage

    2,627

    2,155

    439

    401

    450

    410

    440

    461

    482

    471

    6,073

    8,337

    Disaster Payments

    368

    364

    394

    393

    391

    390

    392

    391

    390

    428

    1,910

    3,901

    Dairy

    230

    156

    146

    179

    171

    210

    165

    92

    112

    86

    883

    1,548

    Marketing loans

    58

    78

    73

    64

    61

    57

    55

    57

    58

    60

    334

    622

    Other

    543

    245

    233

    240

    257

    258

    250

    259

    262

    248

    1,518

    2,795

    Subtotal, Title I

    6,554

    5,651

    6,962

    6,307

    5,967

    6,014

    5,957

    6,167

    5,923

    5,912

    31,440

    61,414

    Title IIConservation

                           

    Environmental Quality Incentives Program/ Conservation Stewardship Program

    1,679

    1,901

    2,138

    2,333

    2,577

    2,748

    2,850

    2,934

    2,983

    3,007

    10,627

    25,148

    Conservation Reserve Program

    1,857

    1,947

    1,932

    2,003

    2,141

    2,288

    2,242

    2,260

    2,213

    2,215

    9,880

    21,097

    Conservation Security/Stewardship Program

    1,582

    1,464

    947

    669

    433

    209

    0

    0

    0

    0

    5,095

    5,303

    Agricultural Conservation Easement Program

    383

    422

    443

    437

    448

    447

    448

    449

    449

    450

    2,133

    4,376

    Regional Conservation Partnership Program

    207

    266

    278

    281

    289

    300

    300

    300

    300

    300

    1,320

    2,820

    Other

    -98

    13

    58

    77

    164

    128

    236

    142

    146

    137

    214

    1,003

    Subtotal: Title II

    5,610

    6,013

    5,797

    5,799

    6,051

    6,120

    6,076

    6,084

    6,091

    6,108

    29,270

    59,748

    Title IIITrade

                           

    Agricultural Trade Promotion and Facilitation

    255

    255

    255

    255

    255

    255

    255

    255

    255

    255

    1,275

    2,550

    Food for Progress

    153

    154

    154

    154

    154

    155

    155

    155

    155

    155

    769

    1,544

    Subtotal, Title III

    408

    409

    409

    409

    409

    410

    410

    410

    410

    410

    2,044

    4,094

    Title IVNutrition

    65,805

    65,301

    65,062

    64,883

    64,968

    65,477

    66,228

    67,127

    68,693

    70,284

    326,020

    663,828

    Title VCredit

    -435

    -437

    -440

    -444

    -449

    -455

    -462

    -471

    -478

    -487

    -2,205

    -4,558

    Title VIRural Development

    785

    -129

    -336

    -366

    -386

    -386

    -386

    -386

    -386

    -386

    -432

    -2,362

    Title VIIResearch

    101

    294

    94

    96

    110

    105

    105

    105

    105

    105

    694

    1,219

    Title VIIIForestry

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    5

    10

    Title IXEnergy

    106

    106

    98

    83

    78

    61

    53

    52

    50

    50

    471

    737

    Title XHorticulture

    183

    194

    215

    215

    215

    205

    205

    205

    205

    205

    1,022

    2,047

    Title XICrop Insurance

    7,229

    7,461

    7,672

    7,799

    7,849

    7,892

    7,931

    7,995

    8,035

    8,070

    38,010

    77,933

    Title XIIMiscellaneous

                           

    Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program

    223

    223

    223

    223

    223

    223

    223

    223

    223

    223

    1,114

    2,229

    Other, including revenue offset for Oilheat

    200

    189

    124

    127

    155

    85

    88

    88

    -282

    90

    795

    862

    Subtotal, Title XII

    423

    412

    347

    350

    377

    307

    310

    310

    -60

    313

    1,909

    3,091

    Total

    86,770

    85,275

    85,881

    85,132

    85,189

    85,751

    86,428

    87,598

    88,589

    90,586

    428,247

    867,200

    Nutrition (Title IV)

    65,805

    65,301

    65,062

    64,883

    64,968

    65,477

    66,228

    67,127

    68,693

    70,284

    326,020

    663,828

    Non-nutrition (other titles)

    20,965

    19,974

    20,819

    20,249

    20,220

    20,274

    20,200

    20,472

    19,896

    20,302

    102,227

    203,372

    Source: CRS. Compiled by adding the CBO score of the 2018 farm bill (Table 3) to the CBO baseline (Table 2).

    Note: Near-term amounts may include outlays for programs that expired before FY2019 but still make outlays that have been obligated. The Credit title includes receipts to Farm Credit System Insurance Fund. The Rural Development title includes farm bill changes to the "cushion of credit" account for which baseline exists elsewhere in government and was not included in the original farm bill baseline.

    Appendix A. Scores of House-Passed and Senate-Passed Versions of H.R. 2 Table A-1. CBO Score of House-Passed H.R. 2, by Section

    (projected change in outlays relative to April 2018 baseline, millions of dollars)

     

    Fiscal year

    5 years

    10 years

     

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2019-23

    2019-28

    Title ICommodity Programs

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Agriculture Risk Coverage—Individuala

    +0

    +0

    -16

    -17

    -18

    -18

    -17

    -19

    -18

    -20

    -51

    -143

    Agriculture Risk Coverage—Countya

    +0

    +0

    +23

    -34

    -26

    -17

    -6

    -15

    -25

    -11

    -37

    -111

    Dairy Program

    -45

    -2

    +4

    +3

    -1

    -3

    -6

    -4

    +18

    +17

    -41

    -20

    Nonrecourse Marketing Assistance Loansa

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    Economic Adjustment Assistance Textile Mills

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +11

    +23

    Implementation

    +24

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +25

    +25

    Payment Limitationsb

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +20

    +40

    Supplemental Agriculture Disaster Assistance

    +13

    +6

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +6

    +35

    +62

    Price Loss Coveragea

    +0

    +0

    +137

    +55

    +43

    +50

    +134

    -59

    -16

    +64

    +235

    +408

    Subtotal, Title I

    -3

    +12

    +160

    +18

    +10

    +23

    +115

    -85

    -30

    +62

    +198

    +284

    Title IIConservation

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Repeal Conservation Stewardship Program

    -28

    -406

    -725

    -1,072

    -1,422

    -1,771

    -1,768

    -1,810

    -1,808

    -1,808

    -3,653

    -12,618

    Conservation Reserve Program

    -21

    +70

    +98

    +96

    +83

    +73

    -43

    -76

    -137

    -166

    +326

    -23

    Grassroots Source Water Protectionc

    +2

    +2

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Wetlands Mitigation Bankingc

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +10

    +10

    Voluntary Public Access and Habitat Protectionc

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +50

    +50

    Feral Swine Eradication and Control Pilot

    +20

    +30

    +25

    +15

    +10

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +100

    +100

    Small Watershed Rehabilitation Programc

    +3

    +16

    +38

    +58

    +74

    +81

    +73

    +52

    +32

    +32

    +189

    +459

    Regional Conservation Partnership Program

    +60

    +106

    +118

    +131

    +143

    +150

    +150

    +150

    +150

    +150

    +558

    +1,308

    Agricultural Conservation Easement Program

    +90

    +187

    +221

    +234

    +247

    +247

    +248

    +248

    +249

    +250

    +979

    +2,221

    Environmental Quality Incentives Program

    +55

    +227

    +424

    +608

    +777

    +921

    +1,056

    +1,164

    +1,217

    +1,243

    +2,092

    +7,693

    Subtotal, Title II

    +193

    +244

    +212

    +82

    -76

    -299

    -284

    -272

    -297

    -299

    +656

    -795

    Title IIITrade

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    International Development Programd

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +235

    +470

    Subtotal, Title III

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +47

    +235

    +470

    Title IVNutrition

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Workforce Solutions: Benefits

    +0

    -300

    -1,330

    -1,350

    -1,340

    -1,370

    -1,560

    -1,920

    -2,280

    -2,650

    -4,320

    -14,100

    Update to Categorical Eligibility

    +0

    +0

    -200

    -525

    -520

    -530

    -530

    -540

    -555

    -565

    -1,245

    -3,965

    Standard Utility Allowances Based on Receipt

    -130

    -310

    -310

    -310

    -300

    -300

    -310

    -310

    -320

    -330

    -1,360

    -2,930

    Duplicative Enrollment Database

    +0

    -8

    -25

    -45

    -60

    -80

    -90

    -90

    -95

    -95

    -138

    -588

    State Performance Indicators

    +0

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -48

    -192

    -432

    Disqualification of Certain Convicted Felons

    *

    *

    *

    -1

    -2

    -2

    -3

    -4

    -5

    -6

    -3

    -23

    Benefit Recovery

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    Tolerance Level for Payment Errors

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    Administrative Flexibility for States

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    Multivitamin-Mineral Dietary Supplements

    *

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    *

    *

    Review of SNAP Operations

    *

    *

    *

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    *

    *

    Mobile Technologies

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +4

    +12

    SNAP Benefit Transfer Data Report

    +4

    +3

    +2

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +15

    +30

    Interactions

    -2

    -3

    *

    +2

    -4

    -3

    -2

    +12

    +10

    +25

    -7

    +35

    Simplified Homeless Housing Costs

    +4

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +8

    +36

    +76

    Percent Recovered Funds Retained by States

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +11

    +11

    +50

    +102

    Basic Allowance for Housing

    +8

    +11

    +11

    +11

    +11

    +12

    +12

    +13

    +13

    +14

    +52

    +116

    Implementation Funds

    +128

    +17

    +3

    +3

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +150

    +150

    Prohibited Fees

    +0

    +3

    +7

    +13

    +20

    +20

    +20

    +20

    +25

    +25

    +43

    +153

    Asset Limits; Vehicle Allowance; Savings

    +1

    -15

    +5

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +51

    +201

    Food Insecurity Nutrition Incentive Programd

    +7

    +17

    +30

    +46

    +55

    +59

    +63

    +65

    +65

    +65

    +155

    +472

    Emergency Food Assistance

    +45

    +46

    +47

    +48

    +49

    +50

    +52

    +53

    +54

    +55

    +235

    +499

    National Gateway

    +8

    +10

    +10

    +68

    +70

    +78

    +81

    +90

    +95

    +95

    +165

    +601

    Nutrition Education

    +57

    +58

    +59

    +61

    +62

    +64

    +65

    +67

    +69

    +70

    +297

    +632

    Transitional Benefits

    +75

    +90

    +90

    +90

    +90

    +90

    +90

    +90

    +95

    +95

    +435

    +895

    Retailer-Funded Incentives Pilot

    +2

    +182

    +180

    +120

    +120

    +120

    +120

    +120

    +120

    +120

    +604

    +1,204

    Cooperation with Child Support Agencies

    +140

    +304

    +321

    +335

    +345

    +355

    +375

    +396

    +446

    +476

    +1,446

    +3,494

    Earned Income Deduction

    +350

    +470

    +470

    +470

    +470

    +470

    +470

    +480

    +490

    +500

    +2,230

    +4,640

    Workforce Solutions: Administration

    +0

    +140

    +600

    +680

    +740

    +810

    +920

    +1,020

    +1,140

    +1,250

    +2,160

    +7,300

    Subtotal, Title IV

    +707

    +685

    -59

    -280

    -190

    -153

    -223

    -434

    -628

    -850

    +862

    -1,426

    Title VCredit

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    Title VIRural Infrastructure and Economic Developmente

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Rural Energy for America Programe

    -10

    -30

    -45

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -185

    -435

    Biorefinery Assistancee

    -35

    -31

    -16

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    -82

    -82

    Subtotal, Title VIe

    -45

    -61

    -61

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -50

    -267

    -517

    Title VIIResearch and Extension

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Beginning Farmer and Rancher Developmentc

    +3

    +10

    +15

    +19

    +20

    +17

    +10

    +5

    +1

    +0

    +67

    +100

    Organic Agricultural Research and Extensionc

    +5

    +15

    +23

    +29

    +30

    +26

    +15

    +8

    +2

    +0

    +101

    +150

    Subtotal, Title VII

    +8

    +25

    +38

    +48

    +50

    +43

    +25

    +13

    +3

    +0

    +168

    +250

    Title VIIIForestry

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    Title IXHorticulture

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    National Organic Program Technology Updatec

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Organic Production and Market Data Initiativec

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Subtotal, Title IX

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +10

    +10

    Title XCrop Insurance

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Education and Risk Management Assistance

    -1

    -11

    -17

    -13

    -14

    -14

    -15

    -15

    -15

    -15

    -52

    -125

    Increase Catastrophic Administration Fee

    -1

    -7

    -8

    -8

    -8

    -8

    -8

    -8

    -8

    -8

    -32

    -72

    Research and Development Priorities

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -23

    -45

    Program Administration

    +0

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -2

    -8

    -18

    Whole Farm Application to Beginning Farmers

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +4

    +9

    Treatment of Forage and Grazing

    +1

    +9

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +40

    +90

    Subtotal, Title X

    -6

    -14

    -16

    -17

    -17

    -18

    -18

    -18

    -18

    -18

    -70

    -161

    Title XIMiscellaneous

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -19

    -37

    Outreach to Socially Disadvantaged Producersc

    +5

    +8

    +10

    +10

    +10

    +5

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +43

    +50

    Textile Trust Fundc

    +1

    +26

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +103

    +103

    Animal Disease Preparedness and Response

    +150

    +125

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +25

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +425

    +450

    Subtotal, Title XI

    +152

    +156

    +82

    +82

    +82

    +26

    -2

    -4

    -4

    -4

    +553

    +566

    Total Changes in Direct Spending

    +1,055

    +1,096

    +406

    -68

    -142

    -381

    -390

    -803

    -977

    -1,112

    +2,344

    -1,320

    Increases in Revenue: Title IV—Nutrition

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +55

    +60

    +60

    +65

    +70

    +75

    +80

    +115

    +465

    Net Effect on the Deficit

    +1,055

    +1,095

    +405

    -124

    -203

    -441

    -455

    -874

    -1,052

    -1,192

    +2,229

    -1,785

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018.

    Notes: * denotes score between -$500,000 and +$500,000. + denotes additional spending or, in the case of revenue, additional revenue. – denotes reduced spending.

    a. Details by commodity within these programs is available in Table 3 of the original CBO score of the House bill, at https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53760 (April 13, 2018). The total across commodities matches the score of these provisions (ARC, PLC, and marketing loan gains) in both the original CBO estimate and the July 24 score used in this table.

    b. Details about CBO's score of the payment limits provision are explained in "Payment Limitations in H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54450, September 6, 2018.

    c. Denotes a "program without baseline" after FY2018 from the 2014 farm bill (Figure 3) that received new funding in FY2019-2023FY2023 but not permanent baseline.

    d. Denotes a "program without baseline" after FY2018 from the 2014 farm bill (Figure 3) that received new funding in FY2019-2028FY2028 and permanent baseline.

    e. The House bill combined rural development and energy provisions (e.g., Titles VI and IX in the 2014 farm bill, respectively) into a single title, Title VI—Rural Infrastructure and Economic Development. Elsewhere in this report, such as in Table 1 and the figures, the two House provisions that scored in Title VI are assigned to an Energy title for comparison to the Senate bill and the CBO baseline.


    Table 4 Table A-2. CBO Score of the Senate-Passed Amendment to H.R. 2, by Section

    (projected change in outlays relative to April 2018 baseline, millions of dollars)

     

    Fiscal year

    5 years

    10 years

     

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2019-23

    2019-28

    Title ICommodities

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Economic Adjustment to Users of Upland Cotton

    +0

    +0

    +0

    -46

    -46

    -47

    -47

    -47

    -47

    -47

    -92

    -328

    AGI Limitation of $700,000

    -2

    -3

    -38

    -33

    -31

    -31

    -31

    -32

    -31

    -31

    -107

    -263

    Actively Engaged in Farming Requirement

    +0

    -2

    -31

    -27

    -25

    -25

    -25

    -26

    -25

    -25

    -85

    -211

    Dairy Product Donation Program

    -5

    -5

    -6

    -6

    -5

    -5

    -6

    -5

    -5

    -5

    -27

    -53

    Producer Election (ARC Default Choice)

    +0

    +0

    -2

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -4

    -9

    Catastrophic Coverage $5.00 with 40% Cap

    +6

    -3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +5

    -3

    -5

    -1

    -12

    +13

    -3

    Supplemental Agriculture Disaster Assistance

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +6

    +11

    Loss of Peach, Blueberry Crops Due to Cold

    +18

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +18

    +18

    Additional Assistance for Volcanic Activity

    +27

    +3

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +30

    +30

    Milk Donation Program

    +8

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +28

    +53

    Repayment Dairy Risk Coverage Premiums

    +78

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +78

    +78

    Dairy Risk Coverage

    +24

    +14

    +9

    +6

    +6

    +7

    +0

    -1

    +16

    +16

    +59

    +97

    Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC)

    +0

    +0

    +23

    +17

    +20

    +21

    +21

    +23

    +22

    +23

    +61

    +172

    Subtotal, Title I

    +155

    +10

    -35

    -81

    -73

    -70

    -85

    -88

    -66

    -76

    -23

    -408

    Title IIConservation

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Environmental Quality Incentives Program

    -61

    -120

    -138

    -149

    -158

    -171

    -187

    -176

    -163

    -158

    -626

    -1,481

    Conservation Stewardship Program

    -3

    -25

    -46

    -67

    -88

    -112

    -133

    -155

    -175

    -196

    -229

    -1,000

    Conservation Reserve Program

    -11

    +42

    +47

    +49

    +15

    +11

    -22

    -30

    -50

    -51

    +142

    +0

    Regional Conservation Partnership Program

    +41

    +71

    +79

    +87

    +96

    +100

    +100

    +100

    +100

    +100

    +374

    +874

    Agricultural Conservation Easement Program

    +56

    +115

    +134

    +149

    +175

    +188

    +194

    +197

    +199

    +200

    +629

    +1,607

    Subtotal, Title II

    +22

    +83

    +76

    +69

    +40

    +16

    -48

    -64

    -89

    -105

    +290

    +0

    Title IIITrade

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Trade Promotion, Development and, Assistancea

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +258

    +515

    Subtotal, Title III

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +52

    +258

    +515

    Title IVNutrition

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Interstate Data Matching/Multiple Issuance

    +0

    -8

    -25

    -45

    -60

    -80

    -90

    -90

    -95

    -95

    -138

    -588

    Quality Control

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -42

    -210

    -420

    Assistance for Community Food Projects

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -4

    -20

    -40

    Interactions

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    *

    Income Verification

    *

    +2

    +4

    +3

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +10

    +10

    Harvesting Health Pilot Projects

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +20

    +20

    Improvements to EBT System

    +0

    +2

    +5

    +9

    +8

    +4

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +24

    +28

    Food Distribution on Indian Reservations

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +17

    +37

    Definition of Certification Period

    *

    *

    +5

    +20

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +55

    +205

    Emergency Food Assistance Programs

    +12

    +24

    +23

    +23

    +23

    +19

    +20

    +20

    +21

    +21

    +105

    +206

    Work Requirements for SNAP

    +5

    +40

    +55

    +55

    +55

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +5

    +210

    +235

    Food Insecurity Nutrition Incentivea

    +8

    +18

    +30

    +45

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +151

    +401

    Subtotal, Title IV

    -14

    +39

    +58

    +72

    +69

    -14

    -27

    -27

    -31

    -31

    +224

    +94

    Title VCredit

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    Title VIRural Development

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Cushion of Credit: No New, Reduce Rate

    -140

    -140

    -150

    -190

    -220

    -260

    -280

    -300

    -320

    -350

    -840

    -2,350

    Rural Electric Development Loan and Grants

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +4

    +4

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +8

    +10

    Subtotal, Title VI

    -140

    -140

    -150

    -186

    -216

    -258

    -280

    -300

    -320

    -350

    -832

    -2,340

    Title VIIResearch and Extension

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Biomass Research and Development

    +0

    +1

    +2

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +2

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +8

    +15

    Emerging Agricultural Production Research and Extension

    +2

    +3

    +4

    +4

    +4

    +2

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +17

    +20

    Foundation for Food and Agricultural Researchb

    +200

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    +200

    +200

    Organic Agricultural Research and Extension Initiativea

    +24

    +36

    +43

    +48

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +200

    +450

    Subtotal, Title VII

    +226

    +40

    +48

    +54

    +57

    +55

    +53

    +51

    +50

    +50

    +426

    +685

    Title VIIIForestry

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Title IXEnergy

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Carbon Utilization Education Program

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    +10

    +10

    Bio-based Market Programb

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +3

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +15

    +15

    Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuelsb

    +3

    +9

    +13

    +14

    +15

    +12

    +6

    +2

    +1

    +0

    +54

    +75

    Biomass Crop Assistance Programb

    +9

    +16

    +20

    +22

    +25

    +16

    +8

    +5

    +4

    +0

    +92

    +125

    Bio-refinery Assistanceb

    +0

    +20

    +40

    +45

    +35

    +10

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +140

    +150

    Subtotal, Title IX

    +17

    +50

    +78

    +86

    +80

    +38

    +14

    +7

    +5

    +0

    +311

    +375

    Title XHorticulture

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Organic Production and Market Datab

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Organic Certification/Trade Tracking/Data Collection

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    National Organic Certification Cost Shareb

    +9

    +12

    +12

    +12

    +12

    +3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    +55

    +58

    Local Agriculture Market Programa

    +33

    +45

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +258

    +558

    Subtotal, Title X

    +44

    +59

    +74

    +74

    +74

    +63

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +60

    +323

    +626

    Title XICrop Insurance

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Enterprise Units Across County Lines

    +0

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -3

    -12

    -27

    Crop Production on Native Sod

    +0

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -1

    -3

    -7

    Funding for Information Technology

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +2

    +2

    Submission of Policies and Materials to Board

    +0

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +3

    +8

    Whole Farm Revenue Agent Incentives

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +2

    +3

    +10

    Pasture, Range, Forage Policy Indian Tribes

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +5

    +12

    Subtotal, Title XI

    +0

    +0

    +0

    -1

    -1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    -1

    -2

    Title XIIMiscellaneous

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Extension of Merchandise Processing Fee

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    -371

    +0

    +0

    -371

    Direct Operation Microloans

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +5

    +5

    Cattle Tick Inspection Emergency Livestock

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +4

    +7

    Administrative Units

    +0

    +0

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +1

    +3

    +7

    Wool Research and Promotion

    +0

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +2

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +9

    +10

    National Oilheat Research Alliance

    +5

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +33

    +68

    Pima Agriculture Cotton Trust Fundb

    +16

    +16

    +16

    +16

    +16

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +80

    +80

    Agriculture Wool Apparel Manufacturing Trust Fundb

    +0

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +30

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +120

    +121

    Emergency Citrus Trust Fundb

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +25

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +0

    +125

    +125

    Farming Opportunities Training and Outreacha

    +26

    +40

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +50

    +216

    +466

    Subtotal, Title XII

    +73

    +122

    +133

    +133

    +133

    +59

    +59

    +59

    -312

    +59

    +594

    +517

    Total Changes in Direct Spending

    +436

    +314

    +334

    +273

    +215

    -61

    -203

    -250

    -651

    -341

    +1,573

    +68

    Increases in Revenue: Title XII—Oilheat

    +5

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +7

    +33

    +68

    Net Effect on the Deficit

    +431

    +307

    +327

    +266

    +208

    -68

    -210

    -257

    -658

    -348

    +1,540

    +0

    Source: CRS, sorted within titles using the CBO cost estimates for the Senate-passed amendment to H.R. 2, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018.

    Notes: * denotes score between -$500,000 and +$500,000. + denotes additional spending or, in the case of revenue, additional revenue. - denotes reduced spending.

    a. Denotes a "program without baseline" after FY2018 from the 2014 farm bill (Figure 3) that received new funding in FY2019-2028 and permanent baseline.

    b. Denotes a "program without baseline" after FY2018 from the 2014 farm bill (Figure 3) that received new funding in FY2019-2023 but not permanent baseline.

    Authorizations for Appendix B. Discretionary Appropriation

    Authorizations

    In addition to theproviding mandatory spending figures above,, various sections of the farm bill authorizes appropriations for a variety of existing and new USDA programs. The CBO scores include an estimate of the discretionary spending that would be needed to implement provisions that have authorizations of appropriations. As discussed before, these authorizations are not actual costs to the score of the farm bill (in terms of mandatory spending baseline and score) because such discretionary spending is ultimately determined in future annual appropriations acts.

    For the House-passed farm bill, CBO estimated that implementing the provisions of H.R. 2 that specifyauthorize appropriations that may be provided in future discretionary appropriations acts. Such "authorizations for appropriation" are not actual funding but are essentially an indication from the authorizing committees to the appropriations committees about funding intentions. They are subject to budget enforcement via future appropriations bills.

    Although the score of the farm bill is primarily about mandatory spending, some CBO scoring documents include an estimate of the discretionary spending that would be needed to implement provisions that have authorizations of appropriations.

    The CBO score of the conference agreement did not address discretionary authorizations. However, earlier CBO scores of the House- and Senate-passed bills did summarize the authorizations for appropriation. Overall, the similarity between the scores of these bills may be an indicator of the authorization levels in the enacted farm bill.

    For the House-passed version of the farm bill, CBO estimated that implementing the provisions of H.R. 2 that specified authorizations of appropriations would cost $24.5 billion over the five-year period FY2019-FY2023, assuming appropriation of the specified amounts. For the Senate-passed version, the amount would bewas slightly smaller at $23.7 billion.28 These projections were for the whole bill and not by title. However, the earlier committee-reported scores did estimate the authorizations by title, as shown in Table B-1.29 Because the totals of the chamber-passed versions remain nearly the same as the committee-reported totals, the earlier title-level estimates may be indicative of the conference agreement. Three titles account for about 85% of the discretionary authorizations for appropriation in the House and Senate committee-reported farm bill scores: Trade, Research, and Rural Development (Table B-1). Actual funding in annual Agriculture appropriations acts does not necessarily correlate to the authorization for appropriation in the farm bill. The annual authorization for appropriation provided in the 2018 farm bill is between $2 billion and $6 billion (Table B-1), which for this comparison is broadly similar to nearly $7 billion in authorizations for appropriation that were in the 2014 farm bill.30 However, actual discretionary funding in recent Agricultural appropriations acts total in excess of $20 billion.31 The difference is because not all of the actual appropriations have their authorization in each farm bill. For example, the Agriculture appropriations act includes funding for salaries and expenses of USDA agencies that may be permanently authorized or is not necessarily reauthorized in the farm bill. Also, jurisdiction for appropriations acts may include agencies or programs that are not in the jurisdiction of the farm bill authorizing committees (such as the roughly $6 billion appropriation for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants, and Children that is not in House Agriculture Committee jurisdiction). Table B-1 slightly smaller at $23.7 billion.24

    For both of these estimates of chamber-passed authorized appropriations, the projection is for the total of the bill and is not disaggregated across titles or programs. However, the earlier committee-reported scores of the respective farm bills do estimate amounts by title, as shown in Table 5.25 The committee-reported totals are nearly the same as the chamber-passed totals, thus making the earlier title-level estimates relatively reliable indicators of the distribution across titles for the authorizations of appropriation that are made in each chamber-passed bill.

    The title-level CBO estimate of discretionary spending that is authorized in the farm bill is similar between the House and Senate bills. Three titles account for about 85% of the discretionary authorizations: Trade, Research, and Rural Development.

    The bill-level estimates that sum to between $2 billion and $6 billion per year do not reflect total annual appropriations for agencies or programs in the roughly $20 billion Agriculture appropriations act.26 Not all of the authorizations of appropriations that are funded in the Agriculture appropriations act are made in the farm bill. For example, the annual Agriculture appropriations act includes funding for (1) agencies or programs that are not in the jurisdiction of the farm bill authorizing committees (e.g., the roughly $6 billion Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants, and Children is not in the jurisdiction of the House Agriculture Committee or the farm bill) and (2) appropriations for salaries and expenses that may be permanently authorized or not necessarily reauthorized in the farm bill. CBO did not estimate the cost of implementing provisions that do not have a specific authorization amount.

    Table 5. Farm Bill Authorizations That Are Subject to Appropriation

    (dollars in millions)

     

    Fiscal year

    Five5 years

     

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    FY2019-23

    House

    -passed H.R. 2

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Commodities

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    Conservation

    106

    144

    157

    165

    165

    737

    Trade

    874

    2,130

    2,417

    2,533

    2,578

    10,532

    Nutrition

    74

    79

    80

    80

    80

    393

    Credit

    248

    257

    257

    257

    257

    1,274

    Rural Infrastructure and Economic Development

    179

    490

    826

    1,159

    1,292

    3,945

    Research

    756

    1,183

    1,479

    1,479

    1,479

    6,374

    Forestry

    56

    81

    94

    102

    105

    437

    Horticulture

    51

    62

    65

    67

    69

    313

    Crop Insurance

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    Miscellaneous

    34

    54

    60

    60

    60

    268

    Subtotal (committee-reported score)

    2,378

    4,479

    5,433

    5,900

    6,084

    24,273

    Changes added after floor passage

    37

    40

    41

    41

    41

    200

    Total (House-passed score)

    2,415

    4,519

    5,474

    5,941

    6,125

    24,473

    Senate

    -passed amendment to H.R. 2

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Commodities

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    Conservation

    178

    259

    293

    315

    315

    1,359

    Trade

    878

    2,139

    2,427

    2,544

    2,589

    10,577

    Nutrition

    7

    14

    11

    10

    5

    47

    Credit

    172

    173

    173

    173

    173

    862

    Rural Development

    132

    333

    520

    690

    764

    2,440

    Research

    864

    1,278

    1,566

    1,559

    1,559

    6,826

    Forestry

    -24

    -14

    9

    23

    31

    26

    Energy

    31

    78

    126

    159

    176

    570

    Horticulture

    37

    51

    54

    56

    58

    255

    Crop Insurance

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    na

    Miscellaneous

    95

    149

    157

    157

    157

    713

    Subtotal (committee-reported score)

    2,370

    4,461

    5,334

    5,685

    5,825

    23,675

    Changes added after floor passage

    1

    4

    4

    1

    0

    10

    Total (Senate-passed score)

    2,371

    4,465

    5,338

    5,686

    5,825

    23,685

    Source: CRS, compiled from (1) title-level amounts in CBO, "H.R. 2, as Reported by the House Agriculture Committee," May 2, 2018; and CBO, S. 3042 as Reported by the Senate Agriculture Committee," June 21, 2018; and (2) the updated total in CBO, "Cost Estimates for H.R. 2 as Passed by the House and as Passed by the Senate," July 24, 2018.

    Note: "na" indicates that CBO did not estimate the cost of implementing provisions that do not have a specific authorization amount.

    Author Contact Information

    [author name scrubbed]Jim Monke, Specialist in Agricultural Policy ([email address scrubbed], [phone number scrubbed])

    Footnotes

    CRS In Focus IF10187, Farm Bill Primer: What Is the Farm Bill?

    CRS Report 98-560, Baselines and Scorekeeping in the Federal Budget Process.

    13. CBO, "Direct Spending and Revenue Effects for the Conference Agreement on H.R. 2," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54880, December 11, 2018.

    28.

    CBO, "S. 954, Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act of 2013," May 17, 2013; and CBO, "H.R. 1947, Agriculture Reform and Risk Management Act of 2013, June 5, 2013.

    ."

    1.

    CRS In Focus IF10187, Farm Bill Primer: What Is the Farm Bill?

    2.

    CRS Report R45210, Farm Bills: Major Legislative Actions, 1965-2018.

    Report R45210, Farm Bills: Major Legislative Actions, 1965-2018.
    2.
    3.

    CRS Report R45341, Expiration of the 2014 Farm Bill.

    4.

    CRS Report R45275, The House and Senate 2018 Farm Bills (H.R. 2): A Side-by-Side Comparison with Current LawR45525, The 2018 Farm Bill (P.L. 115-334): Summary and Side-by-Side Comparison.

    4.
    5.

    CRS Report RL31704, A New Farm Bill: Comparing the 2002 Law with Previous Law and House and Senate Bills (available from the author).

    6.

    CRS Report RL34696, The 2008 Farm Bill: Major Provisions and Legislative Action.

    7.

    CRS Report R42484, Budget Issues That Shaped the 2014 Farm Bill. For more about continuing sequestration issues for the farm bill, see the Appendix in CRS Report R45230, Agriculture and Related Agencies: FY2019 Appropriations.

    8.

    CRS Report RS22131, What Is the Farm Bill?

    9.

    CRS Report R44606, The Commodity Credit Corporation: In Brief.

    109.

    For example, see CRS Report R45230, Agriculture and Related Agencies: FY2019 Appropriations.

    11.

    See CRS Report 98-560, Baselines and Scorekeeping in the Federal Budget Process.

    1210.

    For example, the CBO baselines for the primary farm commodity and nutrition programs remain positive through FY2027the entire 10-year budget window, even though their current authority under the 2014 farm bill generally expires after FY2018statutory authority expires in the farm bill.

    1311.

    See Section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (2 U.S.C. 907), as explained by CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018 to 2028, April 2018, pp. 47 and 54, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651.

    1412.

    CRS Report R44758, Farm Bill Programs Without a Budget Baseline Beyond FY2018. See also CRS In Focus IF10780, Farm Bill Primer: Programs Without Baseline Beyond FY2018.

    CBO, "Baseline Projections for Selected Programs," April 2018,," https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs, April 2018; and the CBO Baseline by Title (unpublished; April 2018); and. The total baseline for the farm bill is published in the table notes in CBO, "Cost Estimates for H.R. 2 as Passed as passed by the House of Representatives and as Passedpassed by the Senate," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54284, July 24, 2018. See also the analysis in CRS In Focus IF10783, Farm Bill Primer: Budget Issues, and at the title level in an unpublished CBO table, April 2018.

    1514.

    Although the farm bill is generally considered a five-year authorization, budget rules assess federal spending over a 10-year budget window.

    16.

    CRS Report R44758, Farm Bill Programs Without a Budget Baseline Beyond FY2018.

    17.

    CRS In Focus IF10780, Farm Bill Primer: Programs Without Baseline Beyond FY2018.

    18a five-year authorization (the 2018 farm bill covers FY2019-FY2023), budget rules required it to be measured over a 10-year budget window. During legislative development, the farm bill may have been presented more in terms of its effect over the 10-year budget window than the intended five-year duration of the law. Separately, statements about the total cost of the farm bill may be in terms of its five-year outlays (i.e., projected spending over the five-year life of the farm bill). Both lengths of time are widely used. 15.

    CRS Report RL31943, Budget Enforcement Procedures: The Senate Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Rule.

    1916.

    CBO, "Cost Estimates for H.R. 2 as Passed by the House of Representatives and as Passed by the Senate."

    H.R. 2, Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, as Introduced in the House," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53760, April 13, 2018.
    2017.

    CBO, "H.R. 2, Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, as Introduced in the HouseReported by the House Agriculture Committee," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/5376053819, May 2, April 13, 2018.

    2118.

    CBO, "H.R. 2S. 3042, Agriculture and NutritionImprovement Act of 2018, as Reported by the HouseSenate Agriculture Committee," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53819, May 254092, June 21, 2018.

    2219.

    CBO, "S. 3042, Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, as Reported by the Senate Agriculture CommitteeCost Estimates for H.R. 2 as passed by the House of Representatives and as passed by the Senate," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54092, June 21gov/publication/54284,July 24, 2018.

    20.
    2321.

    CBO, "Payment Limitations in H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018," https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54450, September 6, 2018.

    2422.

    CRS Report R44758, Farm Bill Programs Without a Budget Baseline Beyond FY2018. See also CRS In Focus IF10780, Farm Bill Primer: Programs Without Baseline Beyond FY2018.

    23.

    For example, see CBO, Baseline Projections for Selected Programs, especially for the "USDA Mandatory Farm Programs" and the "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program," January 2019, at https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs.

    24.

    CRS In Focus IF11087, 2018 Farm Bill Primer: SNAP and Nutrition Title Programs.

    25.

    CRS Report R45193, Federal Crop Insurance: Program Overview for the 115th Congress.

    26.

    CRS Report R44914, Farm Safety-Net Payments Under the 2014 Farm Bill: Comparison by Program Crop.

    27.

    CRS In Focus IF10679, Farm Bill Primer: The Conservation Title.

    CBO, "Cost Estimates for H.R. 2 as Passed by the House of Representatives and as Passed by the Senate."

    ," July 24, 2018.
    2529.

    CBO, "H.R. 2, Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, as Reported by the House Agriculture Committee"," May 2, 2018; and CBO, "S. 3042, Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, as Reported by the Senate Agriculture Committee," June 21, 2018.

    30.
    2631.

    For example, see CRS Report R45230, Agriculture and Related Agencies: FY2019 Appropriations.