COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment—Overview of Issues and Further Reading for Congress

COVID-19: Potential Implications for
February 17, 2021
International Security Environment—Overview Ronald O'Rourke
of Issues and Further Reading for Congress
Specialist in Naval Affairs

Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentially
Kathleen J. McInnis
profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment and the U.S.
Specialist in International
role in the world. Other observers are more skeptical that the pandemic will have such effects.
Security

Observers who argue the pandemic could be world-changing for the international security
environment and the U.S. role in the world have focused on several areas of potential change,

including the following, which are listed here separately but overlap in some cases and can
interact with one another:
 world order, international institutions, and global governance;
 U.S. global leadership and the U.S. role in the world;
 China’s potential role as a global leader;
 U.S. relations and great power competition with China and Russia, including the use of the pandemic as a
theme or tool for conducting ideological competition;
 the relative prevalence of democratic and authoritarian or autocratic forms of government;
 societal tension, reform, transformation, and governmental stability in various countries;
 the world economy, globalization, and U.S. trade policy;
 the characteristics and conduct of conflict;
 allied defense budgets and U.S. alliances;
 the cohesion of the European Union;
 the definition of, and budgeting for, U.S. national security;
 U.S. defense strategy, defense budgets, and military operations ;
 U.S. foreign assistance programs and international debt relief;
 activities of non-state actors;
 the amount of U.S. attention devoted to ongoing international issues other than the pandemic; and
 the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international security environment,
whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change are appropriate and sufficient, and what
implications such change could have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and
defense policy.
Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant and even profound implications for U.S. foreign and
defense policy, and for the status of Congress as a co-equal branch relative to the executive branch in setting and overseeing
the implementation of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
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Contents
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1
Overview of Potential Implications ................................................................................................. 1

World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance.............................................. 1
U.S. Global Leadership and Role in the World ......................................................................... 2
China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader ................................................................................ 2
U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China and Russia ...................................... 2
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy .......................................................................... 3
Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and Governmental Stability ........................... 3
World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy ............................................................ 4
Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances ............................................................................ 4
European Union ........................................................................................................................ 4
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security ......................................................... 4
U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations ............................................ 5
U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee Policy ................................. 5
Non-state Actors ........................................................................................................................ 5
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than COVID-19 ................................................... 5
Role of Congress ....................................................................................................................... 5
Further Reading ......................................................................................................................... 5

Potential Issues for Congress........................................................................................................... 5

Appendixes
Appendix A. Related CRS Reports ................................................................................................. 7
Appendix B. Additional Writings .................................................................................................. 10

Contacts
Author Information ........................................................................................................................ 41


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Introduction
Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentially
profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment and the U.S.
role in the world. Other observers are more skeptical that the pandemic will have such effects.
This report provides a brief overview of some potential implications the pandemic might have for
the international security environment, and a bibliography of CRS reports and other writings for
further reading.
Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international
security environment, whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change
are appropriate and sufficient, and what implications such change could have for the role of
Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign
and defense policy, and for the status of Congress as a co-equal branch relative to the executive
branch in setting and overseeing the implementation of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Appendix A presents a list of CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of issues
presented in this report. Appendix B presents a list of additional writings reflecting various
perspectives on these issues.
Overview of Potential Implications
Areas of potential change reflected in writings from observers who view the pandemic as a
potentially world-changing event include but are not limited to those discussed below. Although
these areas of potential change are presented separately, they overlap in some cases and can
interact with one another.
World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance
Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could cause or accelerate
changes to the U.S.-led liberal international order that has operated since World War II, to the
international institutions and norms that contribute to it, and consequently to global governance.1

1 For more on the U.S.-led liberal international order and the concept of world order generally, see CRS Report
R44891, U.S. Role in the World: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke. As discussed in that
report, the term international order or world order generally refers in foreign policy discussions to the collection of
organizations, institutions, treaties, rules, norms, and practices that are intended to organize, structure, and regulate
international relations during a given historical period.
Other terms used to refer to the U.S.-led liberal international order include postwar international order, rules-based
international order
, and open international order. Observers sometimes substitute world for international, or omit
international or world and refer simply to the liberal order, the U.S.-led order, and so on. In the terms liberal
international order
and liberal order, the word liberal does not refer to the conservative-liberal construct often used in
discussing contemporary politics in the United States or other countries. It is, instead, an older use of the term that
refers to an order based on the rule of law, as opposed to an order based on the arbitrary powers of hereditary
monarchs.
Though often referred to as if it is a fully developed or universally established situation, the liberal international order,
like other international orders that preceded it, is incomplete in geographic reach and in other ways; partly aspirational;
not fixed in stone, but rather subject to evolution over time; sometimes violated by its supporters; not entirely free of
might-makes-right behavior; resisted or rejected by certain states and non-state actors; and subject to various stresses
and challenges.
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Changes to the international order and its supporting institutions and norms could affect the
international context for addressing not only the pandemic, but other international issues as well.
U.S. Global Leadership and Role in the World
The pandemic could influence discussions over the costs and benefits to the United States of
acting as a global leader, not only with respect to global health but across a range of issues.
During the Trump Administration, some observers focused on how the pandemic may have
illustrated the strengths or weaknesses of the Trump Administration’s “America First” approach
to the U.S. role in the world. During the Trump Administration, some observers argued that the
pandemic demonstrated that the United States was maintaining or reasserting its role as global
leader, while others argued that the pandemic demonstrated that the United States was choosing
to withdraw from or was no longer capable of performing that role, and that the pandemic was the
first major international crisis since World War II for which the United States did not serve as the
leader for spearheading, organizing, or implementing an international response.
Some observers, including some foreign observers, have argued that the U.S. domestic response
to the pandemic is demonstrating weaknesses in U.S. democracy, governance, and public health,
particularly in comparison to how certain other countries have responded to the pandemic within
their own borders, and that this will reduce the ability of the United States in the future to offer
itself or be accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues or as a
model for other countries to emulate.
Other observers have argued that the U.S. response to the pandemic is focusing international
attention on what they view as a need for reform at the World Health Organization (WHO),
demonstrating the strength and innovativeness of the U.S. scientific establishment in terms of
developing vaccines and other medical responses to the pandemic, and demonstrating the
flexibility and resiliency of the U.S. federal system in terms of permitting states and localities to
respond to the pandemic in ways that are tailored to local conditions.
China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader
Some observers have focused on how the pandemic may be providing insight into whether China
desires and is working to become a global leader on par with (or in the place of) the United
States, whether China has a capacity for doing so, and how other countries might view China
acting in such a role. China’s transparency, particularly regarding its actions in the early days of
its COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, as well as China’s actions to send vaccines, other medical
supplies, and medical personnel to other countries, have become one element of a broader
ongoing discussion regarding China’s capacity or suitability for acting as a global leader. This
ongoing discussion includes consideration of a range of other issues, including China’s actions
for implementing its Belt and Road Initiative, China’s territorial disputes with other countries, its
participation in international organizations, and its technology-development and international
lending activities.
U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China
and Russia
Some observers have focused on how the pandemic has become a significant element in U.S-
China relations, and in U.S. great power competition with China and Russia. For some observers,
the pandemic presents an opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation on an important international
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issue of common interest. For other observers, the pandemic is a major source of dispute and an
arena of competition between the two countries, and is causing U.S.-China relations to harden
more fully into a Cold War-like adversarial situation.
Some observers have focused on what they view as a competition or race between the United
States, China, Russia, and other countries to develop and administer effective vaccines for the
coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and thus be able to restore their economies to full operation
sooner than other countries, and/or exploit foreign access to their vaccines as foreign policy
levers, and thereby gain a political-economic advantage in the post-pandemic world. The terms
vaccine diplomacy and vaccine nationalism are being used by some of these observers to refer to
aspects of this perceived competition or race. Some observers have expressed concern that
decisions by countries to pursue vaccine development and deployment in a competitive,
individual manner rather than a cooperative, multilateral manner could reduce the overall
effectiveness of efforts to develop and administer effective vaccines and thereby prolong the
pandemic.
Some observers have focused on the pandemic as a factor in the discussion of whether the United
States should decouple its economy from China’s and reduce its dependence on China for key
materials and products, including hospital supplies and pharmaceuticals. Some observers have
focused on whether the U.S. and Chinese responses to the pandemic will affect views around the
world regarding the relative merits of the U.S. and Chinese forms of government and economic
models as potential examples to emulate.
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy
Related to the point above about forms of government, some observers have focused on the
potential impact of the pandemic on discussions in various countries regarding the merits of
democracy compared to those of other forms of government. Some observers have focused on
whether the pandemic is providing national leaders with an opportunity or rationale for taking
actions to seize greater power and move their countries away from democracy and toward
authoritarianism or autocracy, or strengthen or consolidate their already-existing authoritarian or
autocratic forms of government.
Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and
Governmental Stability
Beyond the specific point above about potential movement toward greater authoritarianism and
autocracy, some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic more generally could
cause increased social tensions in certain countries, could lead to (or present opportunities for)
societal reforms and transformations, and could destabilize and perhaps cause the downfall of
governments, akin to the effects of certain past world-changing events, such as World War I.2

2 For brief discussions of the impacts of World War I on societies and governments, see, for example, Robert Wilde,
“The Consequences of World War I, Political and Social Effects of the War to End All Wars,” ThoughtCo., July 10,
2019; John Horne, “The First World War: the Aftermath, The Years Following the End of the War Were Marked by
More Wars, Political Upheaval and Deep Social Change,” Irish Times, April 24, 2018; Steven Mintz, “Historical
Context: The Global Effect of World War I,” History Now (Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History), undated,
accessed April 16, 2020; Margaret MacMillan, “World War I: The War That Changed Everything,” Wall Street
Journal
, June 20, 2014; Steven Erlanger, “The War to End All Wars? Hardly. But It Did Change Them Forever.” New
York Times
, June 26, 2014; Jay Winter, “How the Great War Shaped the World,” Atlantic, World War I issue
(September 29, 2014); Kathleen Haley, “100 Years after WWI: The Lasting Impacts of the Great War,” Media, Law &
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Such changes could alter the political orientations, national strategies, foreign policies, and
defense policies of the countries in which they occur, potentially inducing follow-on effects
among governments and other global actors that interact with those countries.
World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy
Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could lead to significant and
potentially long-lasting changes to the world economy that in turn could reshape the international
security environment. Among other things, observers have focused on the possibility that the
COVID-19 situation could lead the world economy into a significant recession—an effect that
could contribute to the societal tensions mentioned in the previous point. Noting that the
pandemic has reduced world trade volumes and disrupted global supply chains, they have focused
on the question of whether economic globalization will as a result be slowed, halted, or reversed.
Observers are monitoring how such effects could influence or be influenced by U.S. trade policy.
Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances
The so-called burden-sharing issue—that is, the question of whether U.S. allies are shouldering a
sufficient share of the collective allied defense burden—has long been a point of contention
between the United States and its allies around the globe. Some observers have focused on the
possibility that the costs that U.S. allies are incurring to support their economies during stay-at-
home/lockdown periods will lead to offsetting reductions in their defense expenditures. Some
observers argue that the NATO allies in Europe in particular may experience contractions in their
defense budgets for this reason. More generally, some observers argue that if the pandemic causes
a global recession, allied defense budgets could be further reduced—a potential impact that could
affect not only NATO allies in Europe, but those in Asia as well.
European Union
Some observers have additionally focused on the question of whether the pandemic is creating
tensions—or, conversely, opportunities for greater coordination—among the European Union
member states, and what impact the pandemic might ultimately have on the cohesion of the
European Union.
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic will (or should) lead to a
revised definition of U.S. national security, particularly one that is less military-centric and more
focused on what are sometimes called human-security-oriented challenges or global issues, such
as climate change, that have sometimes been more at the periphery of U.S. national security
policy and plans. Such a change in definition could lead to a changed allocation of funding
between the Department of Defense (DOD) and other government agencies that perform national-
security-related tasks, a realignment of resources within DOD between combat-oriented programs
and other programs (such as those related to DOD’s mission of providing defense support of civil
authorities), and perhaps a changed allocation of funding among the agencies other than DOD
that perform national-security-related tasks.

Policy (Syracuse University), July 28, 2014; “Aftermath of World War I,” Wikipedia, updated April 11, 2020, accessed
April 16, 2020.
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U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the large federal expenditures being
made in response to the domestic U.S. economic effects of the pandemic, and the impact these
expenditures will have on the federal budget deficit and federal debt, could lead to greater
constraints in coming years on U.S. defense spending levels. As a follow-on matter, these
observers are additionally focusing on the question of whether responding to such increased
constraints will (or should) lead to revisions in U.S. defense strategy, changes in U.S. defense
programs, and a reduction or termination of certain overseas U.S. military operations.
U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee
Policy
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic is providing a new lens
through which to measure the value of U.S. foreign assistance, international debt relief, and
refugee policy in promoting U.S. interests, particularly in connection with the previously
mentioned issue of whether to revise the definition of U.S. national security to make it less
military-centric.
Non-state Actors
Some observers have focused on how non-state actors such as international terrorist and criminal
organizations are reacting to the pandemic, and on how much priority should be given to
countering such actors in the future, particularly in a context of a changed definition of U.S.
national security.
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than COVID-19
Some observers have focused on whether responding to the pandemic is affecting the time and
resources that U.S. leaders and agencies can devote to addressing other international issues of
concern to the United States that predate but continue to exist in parallel with the pandemic. U.S.
officials warned other countries to not take actions during the pandemic to challenge U.S.
interests around the world or otherwise test U.S. resolve or responsiveness on the thinking that
the pandemic is distracting the U.S. government from other concerns or reducing U.S. capacity
for responding to any such challenges.
Role of Congress
A few observers have focused on the issue of how the pandemic has affected Congress’s activities
for conducting oversight of the Administration’s foreign policy actions.
Further Reading
For further reading on the topics outlined above, see the CRS reports presented in Appendix A
and the additional writings presented in Appendix B.
Potential Issues for Congress
Potential issues for Congress regarding implications of the pandemic for the international security
environment and the U.S. role in the world include but are not limited to the following:
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 Will the pandemic change the international security environment, and if so, in
what ways? How clearly can potential changes be anticipated?
 How should the United States respond to potential changes in the international
security environment arising from the pandemic and its effects, particularly in
light of uncertainty regarding the precise nature and likelihood of these changes?
How might U.S. action or inaction influence or accelerate these changes?
 What does the pandemic demonstrate about the role of the United States as a
global leader? What impact, if any, will the U.S. domestic response to the
pandemic have on the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be
accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues, or to
serve as a model for other countries to emulate in terms of their own political
systems, governance, and economic models?
 What actions is the Administration developing to respond to potential changes in
the international security environment arising from the pandemic? Does
Congress have sufficient visibility into these actions? Are these actions
appropriate and sufficient? What metrics should Congress use to assess them?
 What implications do potential changes in the international security environment
arising from the pandemic have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing
the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy? Is Congress appropriately
organized for maintaining Congress as a co-equal branch of government relative
to the executive branch in addressing these potential changes? If the pandemic
becomes a world-changing event for the international security environment and
the U.S. role in the world, what implications, if any, might that have for
congressional organization and operations?
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Appendix A. Related CRS Reports
CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of specific issues discussed in this report
include the following, which are presented in alphabetical order of their titles:3
 CRS Insight IN11198, Bolivia Postpones May Elections Amidst COVID-19
Outbreak, by Clare Ribando Seelke.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10525, Can the United States Sue China over COVID-19
in an International Court?, by Stephen P. Mulligan.
 CRS Report R46209, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: CRS
Experts, by Matthew B. Barry. (Includes a section listing CRS experts on
international response activities relating to the COVD-19 pandemic.)
 CRS Report R46354, COVID-19 and China: A Chronology of Events (December
2019-January 2020), by Susan V. Lawrence.
 CRS Insight IN11496, COVID-19 and Emerging Global Patterns of Financial
Crime, by Liana W. Rosen.
 CRS In Focus IF11606, COVID-19 and Foreign Assistance: Congressional
Oversight Framework and Current Activities, by Nick M. Brown and Emily M.
Morgenstern.
 CRS In Focus IF11496, COVID-19 and Foreign Assistance: Issues for Congress,
by Nick M. Brown, Marian L. Lawson, and Emily M. Morgenstern.
 CRS In Focus IF11575, COVID-19 and Global Food Security: Issues for
Congress, by Alyssa R. Casey and Emily M. Morgenstern.
 CRS Insight IN11288, COVID-19 and the Defense Industrial Base: DOD
Response and Legislative Considerations, by Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11279, COVID-19 and U.S. Iran Policy, by Kenneth Katzman.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10424, COVID-19: An Overview of Trade-Related
Measures to Address Access to Medical Goods, by Nina M. Hart.
 CRS Report R46633, COVID-19 Vaccines: Global Health Issues, coordinated by
Sara M. Tharakan
 CRS Report R46304, COVID-19: China Medical Supply Chains and Broader
Trade Issues, coordinated by Karen M. Sutter.
 CRS Insight IN11387, COVID-19: Defense Production Act (DPA) Developments
and Issues for Congress, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11305, COVID-19: Defense Support of Civil Authorities, by
Lawrence Kapp and Alan Ott.
 CRS In Focus IF11421, COVID-19: Global Implications and Responses, by Sara
M. Tharakan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11280, COVID-19: Industrial Mobilization and Defense
Production Act (DPA) Implementation, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters.

3 Additional CRS reports that do not include COVID-19 in their titles and are not listed here may include discussions of
the international implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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 CRS Insight IN11481, COVID-19 International Responses: Resources for
Comparison with U.S. Policies, by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Insight IN11583, COVID-19 International Responses: Resources for the
117th Congress, by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10436, COVID-19: International Trade and Access to
Pharmaceutical Products, by Nina M. Hart.
 CRS In Focus IF11525, COVID-19: National Security and Defense Strategy, by
Kathleen J. McInnis.
 CRS Video WVB00330, COVID-19 Public Health Series: Global Health and
Development, by Sara M. Tharakan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11435, COVID-19-Related Suspension of Nonimmigrant Entry,
by Jill H. Wilson.
 CRS Report R46342, COVID-19: Role of the International Financial
Institutions, by Rebecca M. Nelson and Martin A. Weiss.
 CRS Insight IN11273, COVID-19: The Basics of Domestic Defense Response,
coordinated by Michael J. Vassalotti.
 CRS In Focus IF11434, COVID-19: U.S.-China Economic Considerations, by
Karen M. Sutter and Michael D. Sutherland.
 CRS Insight IN11470, Defense Production Act (DPA): Recent Developments in
Response to COVID-19, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS In Focus IF11635, Europe, COVID-19, and U.S. Relations, by Kristin
Archick et al.
 CRS In Focus IF11551, Export Restrictions in Response to the COVID-19
Pandemic, by Christopher A. Casey and Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10467, Foreign Sovereign Immunity and COVID-19
Lawsuits Against China, by Jennifer K. Elsea.
 CRS Insight IN11493, Global Economic Growth Forecasts: Impact of COVID-
19, by James K. Jackson.
 CRS Report R46430, Global Democracy and Human Rights Impacts of COVID-
19: In Brief, coordinated by Michael A. Weber.
 CRS In Focus IF11548, Helping U.S. Citizens Abroad During the COVID-19
Pandemic and Other International Crises: Role of the Department of State, by
Cory R. Gill.
 CRS Report R46270, Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, coordinated by
James K. Jackson.
 CRS In Focus IF11537, Intelligence Community Support to Pandemic
Preparedness and Response, by Michael E. DeVine.
 CRS In Focus IF11581, Latin America and the Caribbean: Impact of COVID-19,
by Mark P. Sullivan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11535, Mexican Drug Trafficking and Cartel Operations amid
COVID-19, by June S. Beittel and Liana W. Rosen
 CRS Insight IN11593, New Presidential Directives on the Defense Production
Act (DPA) and the COVID-19 Pandemic, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters.
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 CRS Report R46319, Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): Q&A on Global
Implications and Responses, coordinated by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS In Focus IF11532, Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Impact in
Africa, coordinated by Alexis Arieff.
 CRS In Focus IF11480, Overview: The Department of Defense and COVID-19,
coordinated by Kathleen J. McInnis.
 CRS Insight IN11365, President Trump Criticizes VOA Coverage of China’s
COVID-19 Response, by Thomas Lum and Matthew C. Weed.
 CRS Insight IN11231, The Defense Production Act (DPA) and COVID-19: Key
Authorities and Policy Considerations, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11337, The Defense Production Act (DPA) and the COVID-19
Pandemic: Recent Developments and Policy Considerations, by Michael H.
Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS In Focus IF11029, The Venezuela Regional Humanitarian Crisis and
COVID-19, by Rhoda Margesson and Clare Ribando Seelke.
 CRS Insight IN11369, U.S. Funding to the World Health Organization (WHO),
by Luisa Blanchfield and Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS Insight IN11325, U.S. Travel and Tourism and COVID-19, by Michaela D.
Platzer.
 CRS In Focus IF11494, Wildlife Trade, COVID-19, and Other Zoonotic
Diseases, by Pervaze A. Sheikh and Katarina C. O'Regan.
 CRS In Focus IF11513, WTO: Ministerial Delay, COVID-19, and Ongoing
Issues, by Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs, Rachel F. Fefer, and Ian F. Fergusson.
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Appendix B. Additional Writings
In presenting sources of additional reading, this appendix includes some examples of writings
reflecting various perspectives on the potential implications of the pandemic on the international
security environment and the U.S. role in the world, organized by specific themes or topics.
Within each section, the items are presented in chronological order, with the most recent on top.
For some of the sections, additional citations with dates earlier than that of the last item listed in
the section can be found in previous versions of this CRS report.
General/Multitopic
John R. Allen et al., “The World After the Coronavirus, We Asked 12 Leading Thinkers to Predict
What Happens in 2021 and Beyond,” Foreign Policy, January 2, 2021.
IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication: The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications
of the COVID-19 Pandemic
, International Institute for Strategic Studies, December 2020, 54 pp.
Colum Lynch, “U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague, United Nations Diplomats and Civil
Servants Fear Peace Efforts in Geneva May Aid the Spread of The Coronavirus,” Foreign Policy,
November 13, 2020.
Matthew Lavietes, “U.N. Says Pandemic Will Slow Already Miniscule Progress in Women’s
Rights,” Thomson Reuters Foundation, October 20, 2020.
Travis Bubenik, “Costlier Than War: Researchers Put Pandemic’s [U.S.] Price Tag at $16
Trillion,” Courthouse News Service, October 12, 2020.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19 Might Not Change the World, Pandemics Are Not Always
Transformative Events. While Some Worrying Preexisting Trends Could Accelerate, It’s Incorrect
to Assume that the Coronavirus Will End Globalization, Kill Liberal Democracy, or Enhance
China’s Soft Power,” Foreign Policy, October 9, 2020.
IGCC Experts, “Global Cooperation in the Time of COVID-19,” Institute on Global Conflict and
Cooperation, UC San Diego, October 5, 2020.
Vivek Wadhwa, “The Genetic Engineering Genie Is Out of the Bottle, the Next Pandemic Could
be Bioengineered in Someone’s Garage Using Cheap and Widely Available Technology,” Foreign
Policy
, September 11, 2020.
Sohini Chatterjee and Mark P. Lagon, “The Cataclysmic Great Power Challenge Everyone Saw
Coming, Violent Extremism, Migration, Pandemics, and Climate Change Are Among the
Burgeoning List of Fundamental Challenges That Will Require Transnational Cooperation and
Collaboration,” National Interest, August 28, 2020.
Edward Alden, “The World Needs to Reopen Borders Before It’s Too Late, Even As They
Struggle to Control the Pandemic, Governments Should Move Quickly to Reopen Borders
Instead of Giving in to Xenophobia, Nationalism, and Illusions of Autarky,” Foreign Policy,
August 25, 2020.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19,”
Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020.
Michael R. Kenwick and Beth A. Simmons, “Pandemic Response as Border Politics,” Cambridge
University Press, August 19, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Mohan Malik, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks,” Strategist (Australian Strategic
Policy Institute)
, August 4, 2020.
Seth A. Johnston, “The Pandemic and the Limits of Realism, The Foundational International
Relations Theory Has Been Revealed to Be Far Less Realistic Than It Claims,” Foreign Policy,
June 24, 2020.
James Goldgeier and Carmen Iezzi Mezzera, “How to Rethink the Teaching of International
Relations, As Universities Struggle to Respond to the Ongoing Pandemic, Here’s What They
Should Focus On,” Foreign Policy, June 12, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “The Pandemic’s 5 Silver Linings, The Coronavirus Has Exacted a Terrible
Toll—But Some Good Things May Come of It Yet,” Foreign Policy, May 26, 2020.
Tom McTague, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming, Western Capitals Aren’t
Just Worried About the Risk of a Resurgence in Coronavirus Cases,” Atlantic, May 18, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “Will a Global Depression Trigger Another World War? The Coronavirus
Pandemic Has Already Devastated the International Economy. Its Military Fallout Remains to Be
Seen,” Foreign Policy, May 13, 2020.
Phillip Y. Lipscy, “It’s Too Soon to Call Coronavirus Winners and Losers, Given how much
remains unknown about the virus, talk of success may be premature,” Foreign Policy, May 12,
2020.
Alan Nicol, “The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis, Insufficient Water for Washing
Is Likely to Worsen the Coronavirus in the Poorest Nations. There’s a Better Way Forward,”
Foreign Policy, May 12, 2020.
George H. Nash, “The Coronavirus Pandemic of 2020 in Historical Perspective,” National
Review
, May 11, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Says Pandemic Is Unleashing a ‘Tsunami of Hate,’” Associated
Press
, May 8, 2020.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, “Why the Coronavirus Won't Transform International Affairs Like 9/11
Did,” National Interest, May 5, 2020.
Deepanshu Mohan, “The Geopolitical Contours of a Post-COVID-19 World,” East Asia Forum,
May 2, 2020.
Andrew Ehrhardt, “Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century,” War on the Rocks, April 30,
2019.
Resilience in the Face of the Coronavirus Pandemic, World Politics Review report, May 2020, 47
pp. (Includes essays by various authors with the titles “Planning for the World After the
Coronavirus Pandemic,” “What It Will Take to Save Economies From the Coronavirus
Pandemic,” “Building Trust, Confidence and Collective Action in the Age of COVID-19,” “Why
Tackling Corruption Is Crucial to the Global Coronavirus Response,” and “The Geography of
COVID-19 and a Vulnerable Global Food System.”)
Iain King, “How Covid-19 Will Change Us: Seven Lessons from the Most Consequential
Pandemics in History,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 29, 2020.
Dmitri K. Simes, “The Perfect Storm,” National Interest, April 24, 2020.
Fred Kaplan, “What Happens if Oil Doesn’t Recover? If Demand Doesn’t Pick Up This Summer,
We Could See Major Shifts in Global Power,” Slate, April 23, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Barry R. Posen, “Do Pandemics Promote Peace? Why Sickness Slows the March to War,”
Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2020.
Joseph Cirincione, “How to Prevent War During the Coronavirus Pandemic, How Will the
Coronavirus Threaten Global Peace?” National Interest, April 22, 2020.
Frank Hoffman, “An American Perspective on Post-Pandemic Geopolitics,” RUSI, April 20,
2020.
Gordon Bardos, “Will the Coronavirus Crisis Force America to Look in the Mirror and Reform?”
National Interest, April 18, 2020.
Nicholas Eberstadt, “The “New Normal”: Thoughts about the Shape of Things to Come in the
Post-Pandemic World,” National Bureau of Asian Research, April 18, 2020.
Steve Coll, “Woodrow Wilson’s Case of the Flu, and How Pandemics Change History,” New
Yorker
, April 17, 2020.
Ravi Kant, “Coronavirus: An Ice-Nine Moment for the World,” Asia Times, April 15, 2020.
Jackson Diehl, “The Pandemic Is Killing Truth, Too,” Washington Post, April 12, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Threatens Global Peace and Security,”
Associated Press, April 10, 2020.
Richard Haass, “The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It, Not Every Crisis
Is a Turning Point, Foreign Affairs, April 7, 2020.
Stratfor Worldview, “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Changing the World—and the Future,”
National Interest, April 4, 2020.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Most Counterintuitive Prediction about World Politics and the
Coronavirus, What If Nothing Changes?” Washington Post, March 30, 2020.
Ali Demirdas, “Western Values May Not Survive the Coronavirus. European Unity and American
Military Power Just Haven’t Held Up,” National Interest, March 28, 2020.
John Allen et al., “How the World Will Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Foreign Policy,
March 20, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 12 authors.)
Maxine Whittaker, “How Infectious Diseases Have Shaped Our Culture, Habits and Language,”
The Conversation, July 12, 2017.
World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance
Helen V. Milner, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, Michael J. Tierney, and Erik Voeten, “Trump,
COVID-19, and the Future of International Order, In a New Survey, International Relations
Experts Are Pessimistic About the Years to Come,” Foreign Policy, October 8, 2020.
Seth Center and Emma Bates, editors, After Disruption: Historical Perspectives on the Future of
International Order
, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 65
pp.
Hung Tran, “One World, Two Systems” Takes Shape During the Pandemic, Atlantic Council,
September 2020, 10 pp.
Brett D. Schaefer and Danielle Pletka, “How the WHO Can Earn Back U.S. Support,” Heritage
Foundation, August 17, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Bobo Lo, “Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West, It’s Time
to Rethink Global Governance and its Priorities,” Lowy Institute, July 29, 2020.
Robert D. Blackwill Thomas Wright, “Why COVID-19 Presents a World Reordering Moment,”
National Interest, July 11, 2020.
Jeffrey Cimmino et al., A Global Strategy for Shaping the Post-COVID-19 World, Atlantic
Council, 2020 (released July 7, 2020), 52 pp.
Mary Robinson, “Multilateralism Offers Hope for a Sea-Change after COVID-19,” The Hill, June
26, 2020.
Aparna Pande, “India Could Emerge as the Global Power the World Has Been Waiting for After
COVID,” Hudson Institute, June 8, 2020.
James Crabtree, “Welcome to a World of Bubbles, Countries Across Europe and Asia Are
Exploring Special Bilateral Arrangements to Ease Border Restrictions. The Result Could Be a
Globe Fractured Along Epidemiological Lines,” Foreign Policy, June 1, 2020.
Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel, Taking Stock: Where Are Geopolitics
Headed in the COVID-19 Era?
Atlantic Council, June 2020, 20 pp.
Samuel Brannen and Kathleen H. Hicks, “World Order after Covid-19,” Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), May 28, 2020.
G. John Ikenberry and Charles A. Kupchan, “Global Distancing, Past Crises Spurred International
Cooperation. Now Each Country Is Going It Alone,” Washington Post, May 21, 2020.
Edward Lucas, “Pandemic Scorecard, Covid-19 Is Breaking and Shaping Reputations,” Center
for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 18, 2020.
Nick Wadhams, “Pandemic Shatters World Order, Sowing Anger and Mistrust in Its Wake,”
Bloomberg, May 17, 2020.
Thomas R. Pickering and Atman M. Trivedi, “The International Order Didn’t Fail the Pandemic
Alone, The United States and China Are Its Crucial Pillars,” Foreign Affairs, May 14, 2020.
Damien Cave and Isabella Kwai, “China Is Defensive. The U.S. Is Absent. Can the Rest of the
World Fill the Void?” New York Times, May 11, 2020.
Edward Fishman, “The World Order Is Dead. Here’s How to Build a New One for a Post-
Coronavirus Era,” Politico, May 3, 2020.
Rebecca Wolfe and Hilary Matfess Sunday, “COVID and Cooperation: The Latest Canary in the
Coal Mine,” Lawfare, May 3, 2020.
Joshua Keating, “The Decline of the Nation-State, Trump’s War with the Governors Hints at a
New Political Order,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2020.
Yukon Huang and Jeremy Smith, “Pandemic Response Reflects Unlearned Lessons of U.S.-China
Trade War,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 27, 2020.
Mihir Sharma, “Diplomacy Is Another Victim of the Virus,” Bloomberg, April 26, 2020.
Brahma Chellaney, “The WHO Has Failed the World in its Pandemic Response,” Strategist
(Australian Strategic Policy Institute)
, April 23, 2020.
William C. Danvers, “The World Bank steps up its role in fighting for the future,” The Hill, April
22, 2020.
Eric A. Posner, “The Limits of the World Health Organization,” Lawfare, April 21, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Amitav Acharya, “How Coronavirus May Reshape the World Order,” National Interest, April 18,
2020.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., “No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order,” Foreign Policy,
April 16, 2020.
Karen DeYoung and Liz Sly, “Global Institutions Are Flailing in the Face of the Pandemic,”
Washington Post, April 15, 2020.
Colin H. Kahl and Ariana Berengaut, “Aftershocks: The Coronavirus Pandemic and the New
World Disorder,” War on the Rocks, April 10, 2020.
Lanhee J. Chen, “Lost in Beijing: The Story of the WHO, China Broke the World Health
Organization. The U.S. Has to Fix It or Leave and Start Its Own Group,” Wall Street Journal,
April 8, 2020.
Colum Lynch, “Can the United Nations Survive the Coronavirus? In the Absence of U.S.
Leadership, the U.N. Is Struggling to Carve Out a Role in the Face of What May Be the Greatest
Threat Since Its Founding,” Foreign Policy, April 8, 2020.
Timofey V. Bordachev, “Visions Of The Post-Coronavirus World: Russian Expert On Europe
Bordachev: The Liberal World Order Will Not Survive,” MEMRI, April 6, 2020.
Matthew Lee and Edith M. Lederer, “Global Diplomacy Under the Gun in The Time of
Ccoronavirus,” Associated Press, April 4, 2020.
Thomas Wright, “Stretching the International Order to Its Breaking Point, The Greatest Error
That Geopolitical Analysts Can Make May Be Believing That the Crisis Will Be Over in Three to
Four Months,” Atlantic, April 4, 2020.
Henry A. Kissinger, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order,” Wall Street
Journal
, April 3, 2020.
Ryan Broderick, “After The Coronavirus Passes, Your World Will Not Go Back To Normal,
Before the Pandemic Began, the Systems That Govern Our World Were Brittle. Today, They Are
Broken. When We Emerge, the World Will Be Different, and So Will We,” Buzzfeed News, April
2, 2020.
Rick Gladstone, “U.N. Security Council ‘Missing In Action’ in Coronavirus Fight,” New York
Times
, April 2, 2020.
Ian Goldin and Robert Muggah, “End of International Cooperation? How Coronavirus Has
Changed the World Permanently,” National Interest, March 31, 2020.
U.S. Global Leadership and Role in World
Alex Leary, “Biden to Join G-7 Leaders in Virtual Meeting to Discuss Pandemic Response,” Wall
Street Journal
, February 14, 2021.
Ethan Guillén, “End the Pandemic Faster by Listening to Developing Countries, Biden Has a
Golden Opportunity to Help with Global Vaccines,” Foreign Policy, February 8, 2021.
Jonathan Tepperman, “The Global Vaccine Rollout Is Failing—and That Puts Everyone,
Everywhere, In Danger, The Selfish Reasons the United States and Europe Must Help Poor
Countries Deal with COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, January 28, 2021.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

White House, “National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the
International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological
Preparedness,” National Security Directive 1, White House, January 21, 2021.
Kenneth C. Brill, “COVID-19 Vaccine Lessons for American Diplomacy after Trump,” The Hill,
January 14, 2021.
William Inboden, “The World That COVID Made: What Should American Foreign Policy Do?
The Pandemic Reminds Us that ‘American Leadership’ Is Not a Trite Euphemism. It Is Arguably
the Single Most Important Factor in Whether the Arc of History Bends Toward Something Better
or Something Worse,” Government Executive, December 29, 2021.
Catherine Kim, “Koreans Believed America Was Exceptional. Then Covid Happened,” Politico,
December 2, 2020.
Ryan Berg and Allison Schwartz, “Latin America Needs Our Assistance on Coronavirus Vaccine
Distribution,” The Hill, November 18, 2020.
James Palmer, “Why the United States Can’t Defeat the Coronavirus, For Too Many Americans,
Disasters Are Things That Happen to Other People, Never Themselves,” Foreign Policy,
November 18, 2020.
Devi Sridhar, “Biden Can Make the United States a Global Health Leader Again. Trump
Withdrew from the Who. Biden Can Rebuild Ties with the Organization and Make the United
States an Influential Player in the Fight Against COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, November 7, 2020.
Christopher Mott, “The Death of Exceptionalism and the Birth of a New Foreign Policy,”
National Interest, November 1, 2020.
Tom Allard, “Vaccines, Not Spy Planes: U.S. Misfires in Southeast Asia,” Reuters, October 27,
2020.
BBC News, “Global Perception of US Falls to Two-Decade Low,” BBC News, September 15,
2020.
Adam Taylor, “Global Views of U.S. Plunge to New Lows amid Pandemic, Poll Finds,”
Washington Post, September 15, 2020.
Richard Wike, Janell Fetterolf, and Mara Mordecai, “U.S. Image Plummets Internationally as
Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus Badly,” Pew Research Center, September 15, 2020.
William J. Burns, “A New U.S. Foreign Policy for the Post-Pandemic Landscape, As the Global
Order Crumbles, the United States Must Reinvent Its Role in the World,” Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace, September 9, 2020.
Editorial Board, “Trump’s Refusal to Join a Global Vaccine Effort Epitomizes an America That’s
Isolated and Weak,” Washington Post, September 2, 2020.
Elliot Hannon, “The Trump Administration Refuses to Participate in Global Coronavirus Vaccine
Effort,” Slate, September 2, 2020.
Scott Neuman, “U.S. Won't Join WHO-Led Coronavirus Vaccine Effort, White House Says,”
NPR, September 2, 2020.
Emily Rauhala and Yasmeen Abutaleb, “U.S. Says It Won’t Join WHO-Linked Effort to Develop,
Distribute Coronavirus Vaccine,” Washington Post, September 1, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Karla Zabludovsky, Nishita Jha, and Christopher Miller, “These Countries Have The Highest
COVID-19 Infection Rates. This Is What The US Has In Common With Them, ‘The US Is No
Longer An Example for Other Countries to Follow.,’” BuzzFeed, August 22, 2020.
Nicole Winfield and Lisa Marie Pane, “US Tops 5 Million Confirmed Virus Cases, to Europe’s
Alarm,” Associated Press, August 9, 2020.
Brett D. Schaefer and Danielle Pletka, What the World Health Organization Must Do to Earn
Back U.S. Support
, Heritage Foundation, August 7, 2020, 7 pp.
Wade Davis, “The Unraveling of America, Anthropologist Wade Davis on How COVID-19
Signals the End of the American Era,” Rolling Stone, August 6, 2020.
Colby Smith, Eva Szalay, and Katie Martin, “Dollar Blues: Why the Pandemic Is Testing
Confidence in the US Currency,” Financial Times, July 31, 2020.
Christopher Smart, “To Avoid a Coronavirus Depression, the U.S. Can’t Afford to Alienate the
World,” Foreign Policy, July 28, 2020.
Dan Balz, “America’s Global Standing Is at a Low Point. The Pandemic Made It Worse. Under
Trump, the United States Retreats from Collaborative Leadership at a Time of Global Crisis,”
Washington Post, July 26, 2020.
Michael H. Fuchs, “A Foreign Policy for the Post-Pandemic World, How to Prepare for the Next
Crisis,” Foreign Affairs, July 23, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “How to Ruin a Superpower, Washington’s Status as a Superpower Has Been
Declining for Years. Trump’s Handling of the Pandemic Is Killing It Off,” Foreign Policy, July
23, 2020.
Jon B. Alterman, “Covid-19, the Iranians, and Us,” Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS), July 21, 2020.
William J. Burns, “The United States Needs a New Foreign Policy, The Global Order Is
Crumbling, Domestic Renewal Is Urgent, and America Must Reinvent Its Role in the World,”
Atlantic, July 14, 2020.
Stephen Long, “Leaving World Health Organization Marks Major Foreign Policy Blunder,” The
Hill
, July 12, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “The Pandemic Should Kill Regime Change Forever, If the United States Can’t
Stop a Virus at Home, There’s No Reason to Think It Should Ever Try Running Another
Country,” Foreign Policy, July 8, 2020.
Matthew M. Kavanagh and Mara Pillinger, “Leaving the WHO Will Hurt Americans’ Health,”
Foreign Policy, July 7, 2020.
Gregory Mitrovich, “Beware Declinism: America Remains Poised for Greatness,” National
Interest
, July 5, 2020.
Oona Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, “Welcome to the Post-Leader World, The United States Has
Abdicated Its Dominant Role. Here’s How to Fill the Gap,” Foreign Policy, July 4, 2020.
Thomas Chatterton Williams, “Do Americans Understand How Badly They’re Doing?” Atlantic,
July 2, 2020.
Paul R. Pillar, “Trump's Dereliction Of Duty On The Coronavirus Continues,” National Interest,
July 1, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Tori K. Smith and HyunJoo Lee, “Congress and the Administration Should Advance Free Trade
to Aid in COVID-19 Economic Recovery,” Heritage Foundation, July 1, 2020.
James Jay Carafano et al., “After COVID-19, Only U.S. Can Lead Way on Economic Recovery,”
Heritage Foundation, June 18, 2020.
Juan José Daboub and Daniel F. Runde, “Turning the Covid-19 Crisis into an Opportunity for the
Central American Textile Sector,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), June 25,
2020.
Roman Darius, “US Primacy Will Survive Covid-19 and Trump,” Strategist (Australian Strategic
Policy Institute)
, June 17, 2020.
James Jay Carafano and Ian Brzezinski, “We Need a U.S.-European Partnership Recovery
Program,” Heritage Foundation, June 12, 2020.
Jimmy Quinn, “Withdrawal from WHO Is Not Inevitable,” National Review, June 11, 2020.
Lawrence J. Haas, “Trump’s WHO Withdrawal Too Hasty by Half,” The Hill, June 6, 2020.
Richard Haass, “Foreign Policy By Example, Crisis at Home Makes the United States Vulnerable
Abroad,” Foreign Affairs, June 5, 2020.
John B. Alterman, “Covid-19’s ‘Politics of Humiliation’: A Chance for the US to Lead—or to
Lose Control,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), June 1, 2020.
Hall Gardner, “Pandemic Pressure: The Coronavirus Is Antagonizing America’s Relationships,”
National Interest, June 1, 2020.
China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader
Erika Kinetz, “Anatomy of a Conspiracy: With COVID, China Took leading Role,” Associated
Press
, February 15, 2021.
Alex Leary, “U.S. Expresses ‘Deep Concerns’ Over China Withholding Data From Pandemic
Investigators,” Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2021.
Javier C. Hernández and James Gorman, “On W.H.O. Trip, China Refused to Hand Over
Important Data,” New York Times, February 12, 2021.
Sui-Lee Wee, “China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring. Delays, Inconsistent
Data, Spotty Disclosures and the Country’s Attacks on Western Rivals Have Marred Its
Ambitious Effort to Portray Itself as a Leader in Global Health,” New York Times, January 25,
2021.
Huizhong Wu, “China Pushes Conspiracy Theories on COVID Origin, Vaccines,” Associated
Press
, January 25, 2021.
Li Yuan, “How Beijing Turned China’s Covid-19 Tragedy to Its Advantage, The Communist
Party’s Success in Reclaiming the Narrative Has Proved to the World Its Ability to Rally the
People to Its Side, No Matter How Stumbling Its Actions Might Be,” New York Times, January 22
(updated January 24), 2021.
Agence France-Presse, “Philippines Says China to Donate Half a Million Covid-19 Vaccines,”
Yahoo News, January 16, 2021.
Sui-Lee Wee and Ernesto Londoño, “Disappointing Chinese Vaccine Results Pose Setback for
Developing World,” New York Times, January 13 (updated January 15), 2021.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Amy Qin and Javier C. Hernández, “A Year After Wuhan, China Tells a Tale of Triumph (and No
Mistakes), The Chinese Communist Party’s Efforts to Hide Its Missteps Have Taken on New
Urgency as the Anniversary of the World’s First Covid-19 Lockdown Nears,” New York Times,
January 10 (updated January 14), 2021.
Alice Han and Eyck Freymann, “Coronavirus Hasn’t Killed Belt and Road, As the Pandemic
Rages, China’s Strategy Is Becoming More High-Tech And Sophisticated,” Foreign Policy,
January 6, 2021.
Emily Rauhala and Lily Kuo, “Politics Frustrate WHO Mission to Search for Origins of
Coronavirus in China,” Washington Post, January 6, 2021.
Craig Singleton, “Confronting China’s COVID Con,” The Hill, January 5, 2021.
Hanns Günther Hilpert and Angela Stanzel, China—Winning the Pandemic… for Now, The
People’s Republic Is Exuding Strength, but Can They Keep It Up?
Stiftung Wissenschaft und
Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), SWP Comment No. 1, January
2021, 4 pp.
Danson Cheong, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Not as Simple as Shot in the Arm,” Straits Times,
December 28, 2020.
Iain Marlow, Faseeh Mangi, and Kari Soo Lindberg, “China Is Struggling to Get the World to
Trust Its Vaccines, What Should Have Been a Big Covid Win for Beijing in Building Ties is
Revealing Widespread Mistrust in China’s Products,” Bloomberg, December 28, 2020.
Raymond Zhong, Paul Mozur, Jeff Kao, and Aaron Krolik, “No ‘Negative’ News: How China
Censored the Coronavirus,” New York Times, December 19, 2020.
CK Tan, “China Forges on with Vaccine Diplomacy amid Pfizer Fanfare,” Nikkei Asia, December
17, 2020.
Chris Buckley, “China’s Combative Nationalists See a World Turning Their Way, China’s
Communist Party Is Pushing the Narrative that the Pandemic Has Proved the Superiority of Its
Authoritarian Model. The Muscular Message Is Finding Fans at Home,” New York Times,
December 14, 2020.
Alex Vines, “China’s Southern Africa Debt Deals Reveal a Wider Plan,” Chatham House,
December 10, 2020.
Gordon G. Chang, “China Deliberately Spread The Coronavirus: What Are The Strategic
Consequences?” Hoover Institution, December 9, 2020.
Robert G. Kaufman, “Will The Covid-19 Pandemic Confound Or Enable China’s Strategic
Ambitions?” Hooever Institution, December 9, 2020.
Sha Hua, “China Floats Covid-19 Theories That Point to Foreign Origins, Frozen Food,” New
York Times
, December 8, 2020.
T.S. Allen, “China’s Pandemic Public Opinion Warfare Alienates Global Audiences,” China Brief,
December 6, 2020.
Javier C. Hernández, “China Peddles Falsehoods to Obscure Origin of Covid Pandemic,” New
York Times
, December 6 (updated December 14), 2020.
Amy Hawkins and James Thorpe “Don’t Count on China’s Help With a Coronavirus Inquiry,
Beijing’s COVID-19 Response Has Been a Success Story, and the Communist Party Wants to
Keep It That Way,” Foreign Policy, December 3, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

David Culver and Nectar Gan, “China Has Promised Millions of Coronavirus Vaccines to
Countries Globally. And It Is Ready to Deliver Them,” CNN, December 2, 2020.
Carol Rosenberg, “China Poised to Be First to Distribute Virus Vaccine in Latin America, U.S.
Official Says,” New York Times, December 2 (updated December 14), 2020.
Shannon Tiezzi, “China Continues Its COVID-19 Diplomacy in the Pacific, China Held a Second
‘Special Meeting On Covid-19’ with Pacific Island Countries,” Diplomat, December 1, 2020.
U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China
and Russia
Sam Meredith, “As Russia and China Seek to Boost Their Global Influence, Analysts Warn
Vaccine Diplomacy Is Here to Stay,” CNBC, February 17, 2021.
Aaron Feis, “Inside China’s Propaganda Efforts to Pin COVID-19 on the US,” New York Post,
February 15, 2021.
Bojan Pancevski, “China’s Covid-19 Vaccine Diplomacy Boosts Its Influence in Europe,” Wall
Street Journal
, February 13, 2021.
Mujib Mashal and Vivian Yee, “The Newest Diplomatic Currency: Covid-19 Vaccines, India,
China, the U.A.E. and Others Dole out Donations in Countries Where They Seek Sway. In Some
Cases, They Are Sending Doses Despite Pressing Needs at Home,” New York Times, February 11,
2021.
Hiddai Segev and Galia Lavi, The Vaccine Race: China Expands its Global Influence, Institute
for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University, INSS Insight No. 1438, February 11,
2021, 5 pp.
David M. Herszenhorn, “Ukrainian PM: Russia Using COVID Vaccine for Influence,” Politico,
February 10, 2021.
Daniel Milo, “The Deadly Effects of Disinformation, Russian COVID Disinformation Operation
Has Been Tragically Successful, at Both Undermining the West and in Spreading Lies That Have
Cost Lives,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), February 8, 2021.
Amitav Acharya, “Will the Pandemic Polarize Asia? America Could Benefit from a Loss of Trust
in China, Writes Amitav Acharya,” Chatham House, February 5, 2021.
Loveday Morris, “As Europe’s Vaccination Efforts Falter, Russia and China Are Now Seen as
Options,” Washington Post, February 5, 2021.
Catherine Osborn, “Sputnik V Takes Off in Latin America, How Argentina Helped Open the
Region for the Russian Vaccine,” Foreign Policy, February 5, 2021.
Yasmeen Serhan, “Joe Biden’s ‘America First’ Vaccine Strategy, Although the New
Administration Has Reversed Many of the Isolationist Policies of Its Predecessor, the United
States’ Commitment to Its Own Vaccine Procurement Remains Unchanged,” Atlantic, February 4,
2021.
Adam Taylor, “Stuck Between the Pandemic and Politics, Some Countries Ban Rivals’ Vaccines,”
Washington Post, February 3, 2021.
Roderick Bailey, “Vaccine Nationalism: When Countries Act Selfishly, Everyone Loses, Tensions
Have Already Risen between the EU, UK and AstraZeneca over a Shortfall in Vaccine
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Production. In Any Situation Where Supplies Are Scarce and Demand Rises, It Is Poorer
Countries that Will Suffer Most,” National Interest, February 2, 2021.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “Vaccine Nationalism Harms Everyone and Protects No One, The
World Health Organization’s Chief Argues that Hoarding Vaccines Isn’t Just Immoral—Its
Medically Self-Defeating,” Foreign Policy, February 2, 2021.
Georgi Kantchev, “Russian Covid-19 Vaccine Was Highly Effective in Trial, Boosting Moscow’s
Rollout Ambitions, Sputnik V Shot Achieved 91.6% Efficacy in Preventing Coronavirus
Symptoms, Handing the Country a Geopolitical Coup,” Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2021.
Edoardo Campanella, “Reopening Haves, and Have Nots, The Path to Economic Normalization
Will Be Hardest for the Countries and Sectors Least Prepared for Prolonged Pain,” Foreign
Policy
, February 1, 2021.
Peter Harris, “To Protect US Health after COVID, Scrap Trump’s Hawkish, Self-Defeating
Approach to China,” USA Today, January 29, 2021.
Aparna Pande, “India's COVID Diplomacy: Trying to Wean Neighbors off China?” Hudson
Institute, January 28, 2021.
Jill Disis, “China Is Rehearsing for When It Overtakes America,” CNN Business, January 26,
2021.
Chris Giles, “IMF Expects US and China to Recover Most Strongly from Virus Economic Hit,
Fund Predicts that Europe and Emerging Markets Will Be Lagging Behind in 2022,” Financial
Times
, January 26, 2021.
Luke Hunt, “China’s ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ Leaves its Mark on ASEAN, Most Southeast Asian
Governments Are Looking to China for Help in Combating COVID-19,” Diplomat, January 22,
2021.
Ken Moritsugu, “Analysis: Biden Faces a More Confident China after US Chaos,” Associated
Press, January 20, 2021.
Gerry Shih, “China Turbocharges Bid to Discredit Western Vaccines, Spread Virus Conspiracy
Theories,” Washington Post, January 20, 2021.
Stephen Fidler, “Covid-19 Heightens U.S.-China Rivalry, New Report Says, The World
Economic Forum Report Says the Pandemic Risks Widening Income Disparities World-Wide,”
Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2021.
John Garrick and Yan Bennett, “How China is Controlling the COVID Origins Narrative by
Force,” National Interest, January 19, 2021.
Jonathan Cheng, “China Still Grew and Fueled Its Rise as Covid-19 Shook the Global Economy,
GDP Rose 2.3% Last Year, Making China the Only Major World Economy to Record Gains,”
Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2021.
Gerry Shih, “China’s Economy Is Growing Faster Now than Before the Coronavirus Pandemic,”
Washington Post, January 18, 2021.
Bill Priestap and Holden Triplett, “The Coronavirus Games: A Geopolitical Spy Story,” Lawfare,
January 13, 2021.
Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang, “China Is Touting Its Totalitarianism Taming of the Coronavirus
Over U.S. Democratic Failure, The Chinese Communist Party May Be Demonstrating a Superior
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and Lasting Form of Governance over the Evolving American Model,” National Interest, January
10, 2021.
Steven A. Cook, “America’s Vaccine Diplomacy Is AWOL in the Middle East,China and Russia
Are Spreading Their Vaccines—And Forging New Ties—to Some of Washington’s Closest
Allies,” Foreign Policy, January 8, 2021.
Joel Gehrke, “‘Blackmailing’: Duterte Threatens to Scrap Military Pact With US to Get
Coronavirus Vaccine,” Washington Examiner, January 6, 2021.
Dean Jackson, ed., COVID-19 and the Information Space, Boosting the Democratic Response,
National Endowment for Democracy, January 2021, 51 pp.
Henry Meyer and Stepan Kravchenko, “Putin Battles to Sell Russia’s Vaccine in New Rift With
West,” Bloomberg, December 31, 2021.
Gordon G. Chang, “China Using Covid to Overtake America's Economy,” Gatestone Institute,
December 30, 2020.
Felix Salmon, “How China Won 2020,” Axios, December 29, 2020.
David Crawshaw and Miriam Berger, “China Beat Back Covid-19 in 2020. Then It Really Flexed
Its Muscles At Home And Abroad,” Washington Post, December 28, 2020.
Colum Lynch, “How Trump’s Assault on International Organizations Benefits Beijing, The
United States Was Already Fighting with China for Influence at Global Organizations, But the
Pandemic Made Everything Worse,” Foreign Policy, December 28, 2020.
David Brennan, “Chinese Media Attacks American ‘Selfishness’ As Trump Blames Beijing for
Coronavirus Crisis,” Newsweek, December 26, 2020.
Lizzy Burden, “China’s Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout,”
Bloomberg, December 25, 2020.
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, “How Covid-19 Affected U.S.-China Military Signaling,”
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS]),
December 17, 2020.
Ties Dams and Brigitte Dekker, Fire and Haze, Sino–US Rivalry, the COVID-19 Crisis and
Financial Markets
, Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations), December
2020 (posted December 15, 2020), 28 pp.
Mark Episkopos, “The Geopolitics of Combatting the Coronavirus, The Production and
Distribution of Coronavirus Vaccines Are Poised to Become the Latest Vessels of Geopolitical
Warfare,” National Interest, December 5, 2020.
Zachary Faria, “Biden Has Tried to Talk Tough on China, But He Won’t Hold Them Accountable
for the Pandemic,” Washington Examiner, December 4, 2020.
Andrea Shalal and Michelle Nichols, “U.S. Says U.N. COVID-19 Meeting Is Stage For Chinese
‘Propaganda,’” Reuters, December 2, 2020.
Josiah Case, “Telling China’s COVID-19 Story Well: Beijing’s Efforts to Control Information
and Shape Public Narratives Regarding the 2020 Global Pandemic,” CNA, December 2020,
DRM-2020-U-028558-FINAL, 177 pp.
Andrew Monaghan, Russian Grand Strategy and the COVID Crisis, NATO Defense College,
December 2020, 4 pp.
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Hal Brands, “Vaccine Diplomacy Is the New Space Race, And This Time It’s the U.S. against
China,” Bloomberg, November 17, 2020.
Monika Chansoria, China, the U.S. and a Post-Covid Indo-Pacific Setting, Fondation pour la
Recherche Strategique, November 5, 2020, 7 pp.
John Plrender, “Chinese Economy Outstrips US Despite Beijing Bashing, China Emerging as the
Engine of Global Growth amid the Covid Pandemic,” Financial Times, November 2, 2020.
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy
Economist, “Global Democracy Has a Very Bad Year, The Pandemic Caused an Unprecedented
Rollback of Democratic Freedoms in 2020,” Economist, February 2, 2021.
Joshua Keating, “The Pandemic Threatened Global Democracy. Instead, It’s Strengthened It.
Many, Including Me, Predicted Widespread Democratic Collapse. But There’s Cause for Hope,”
Slate, October 30, 2020.
Christopher Johnson, “Can the United Nations Protect Human Rights in the Age of COVID-19?”
Thomson Reuters Foundation, October 23, 2020.
Adam Taylor, “Democracies Are Backsliding Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Washington
Post
, October 2, 2020.
Sarah Repucci and Amy Slipowitz, Democracy under Lockdown, The Impact of COVID-19 on the
Global Struggle for Freedom
, Freedom House, October 2020, 17 pp.
Travis L. Adkins and Jeffrey Smith, “Will COVID-19 Kill Democracy? In Tanzania and
Elsewhere, the Pandemic and Creeping Authoritarianism Are Colliding, Making Both Problems
Far Worse,” Foreign Policy, September 18, 2020.
Timothy Mclaughlin, “Where the Pandemic Is Cover for Authoritarianism, In Hong Kong and
Around the World, Public-Health Concerns Are Being Used to Excuse Extraordinary Overreach,”
Atlantic, August 25, 2020.
Yasmeen Serhan, “The Pandemic Isn’t a Death Knell for Populism, Just Because Populist Leaders
Haven’t Fared Well Against the Coronavirus Doesn’t Mean Their Opponents Should Count Them
Out,” Atlantic, August 22, 2020.
David Stasavage, “Democracy, Autocracy, and Emergency Threats: Lessons for COVID-19 From
the Last Thousand Years,” Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020.
Anatoly Kurmanaev, “Latin America Is Facing a ‘Decline of Democracy’ Under the Pandemic,”
New York Times, July 29, 2020.
Roudabeh Kishi, “How the Coronavirus Crisis Is Silencing Dissent and Sparking Repression,”
Foreign Policy, July 21, 2020.
Matt Warner and Tom G. Palmer, “The Pandemic Could Be the Crisis Liberalism Needed, The
Future Has Rarely Seemed Bleaker for Free-Market Democracy—But Small Changes Can Bring
It Roaring Back,” Foreign Policy, July 13, 2020.
Kapil Komireddi, “The Coronavirus Is Hastening Modi’s Transformation of India, New Delhi Is
Invoking the Pandemic to Accelerate Its Suppression of the Press,” Foreign Policy, July 6, 2020.
Jon Lee Anderson, “Populists Inflame the Coronavirus Outbreak Across Latin America,” New
Yorker
, July 2, 2020.
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James Traub, “The Pandemic Is the World’s Long Overdue Reality Check, Populists Came to
Power Peddling Political Fantasies—But the Coronavirus Has Broken the Fever,” Foreign Policy,
July 1, 2020.
Nyshka Chandran, “The Pandemic Has Given Armies in Southeast Asia a Boost, In Indonesia and
the Philippines, Military Leaders Are Managing the Coronavirus Response—with Lasting
Political Repercussions,” Foreign Policy, June 15, 2020.
Larry Diamond, “Democracy Versus the Pandemic, The Coronavirus Is Emboldening Autocrats
the World Over,” Foreign Affairs, June 13, 2020.
Robin Niblett and Leslie Vinjamuri, “Op-Ed: Why Democracies Do Better at Surviving
Pandemics,” Los Angeles Times, May 26, 2020.
Justin Sherman, “War Rhetoric Surrounds COVID Surveillance,” C4ISRnet, May 22, 2020.
Mu Sochua, “Coronavirus ‘Fake News’ Arrests Are Quieting Critics, In Southeast Asia, the
Coronavirus Pandemic Has Provided a Handy Excuse for a Clampdown on Free Speech,”
Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.
Jacob Wallace and Darcy Palder, “The Coronavirus Is Delaying Elections Worldwide, Moldova
and Oman Join a Growing List of Countries Postponing Their Votes for the Sake of Public
Health,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.
Holman W. Jenkins Jr., “Coronavirus and Policy Chaos, Western Rights and Freedoms Now
Prove a Strength in Adapting to the Pandemic,” Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2020.
Josh Nadeau, “Putin Is Using the Pandemic to Consolidate Power, Public Health Is a Convenient
Pretext for Extending Authoritarian Controls,” Foreign Policy, May 18, 2020.
Margaret Tucker, “Symptoms May Include Censorship,” Slate, May 15, 2020.
Joanna Kakissis, “European Parliament Lawmakers Demand Punishment For Hungary Over
Emergency Powers,” NPR, May 14, 2020.
Stuart Williams, Agence France-Presse, “For Europe’s Strongmen, Pandemic Is Opportunity and
Risk,” Yahoo News, May 14, 2020.
Steven Feldstein, “What Democracy Will Fall Next? Hungary Was the First Democratic Victim of
the Coronavirus. It May Not Be the Last,” Foreign Policy, May 7, 2020.
Kemal Kirisci, “The Coronavirus Has Led to More Authoritarianism for Turkey,” National
Interest
, May 6, 2020.
Febriana Firdaus. “Indonesians Fear Democracy Is the Next Pandemic Victim,” Foreign Policy,
May 4, 2020.
Margarita R. Seminario and Claudia Fernandez, “Free Press, Fake News, and Repression during
Covid-19: Venezuela, Brazil, and Nicaragua,” Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS), May 4, 2020.
Jeffrey Smith and Nic Cheeseman, “Authoritarians Are Exploiting the Coronavirus. Democracies
Must Not Follow Suit,” Foreign Policy, April 28, 2020.
Alexander Cooley and Daniel Nexon, “Why Populists Want a Multipolar World, Aspiring
Authoritarians Are Sick of the Liberal Order and Eager for New Patrons in Russia and China,”
National Interest, April 25, 2020.
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Anthony B. Kim, “COVID-19 Pandemic Underscores Nexus of Economic Freedom, Freedom of
Press,” Heritage Foundation, April 20, 2020.
Editorial Board, “How China’s Authoritarian System Made the Pandemic Worse,” Washington
Post
, April 17, 2020.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche, “The Coronavirus Is Exposing Populists’ Hollow
Politics, As the Crisis Worsens, Even More Extreme Groups May Prosper,” Foreign Policy, April
16, 2020.
Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and
Governmental Stability
Paolo Gerbaudo, “Big Government Is Back, The Pandemic Has Discredited Decades of Free
Market Orthodoxy—But Not All Visions of State Interventionism Are Progressive,” Foreign
Policy
, February 13, 2021.
Emeline Wuilbercq, “Pandemic Woes Seen Swelling Global Ranks of Child Soldiers,” Thomson
Reuters Foundation News
, February 12, 2021.
Alexander Villegas, Anthony Faiola, and Lesley Wroughton, “As Spending Climbs and Revenue
Falls, the Coronavirus Forces a Global Reckoning, A Rising ‘Debt Tsunami’ Threatens Even
Stable, Peaceful Middle-Income Countries,” Washington Post, January 10, 2021.
Edoardo Campanella, “The Pandemic Remade the Chinese Economy, Other Countries Should
Prepare Now for Their Own Reformations,” Foreign Policy, January 4, 2021.
Jarrett Blanc, Frances Z. Brown, and Benjamin Press, “Conflict Zones in the Time of
Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
December 17, 2020.
Joaquín Cottani, The Effects of Covid-19 on Latin America’s Economy, Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), November 2020, 9 pp.
Tomasz Mickiewicz, Jun Du, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, “Coronavirus: Individualistic Societies
Might Be Doing Worse, the Individualism Hypothesis Is Worth Investigating Further,” National
Interest
, October 14, 2020.
Clare Duffy, “The Pandemic Could Push 150 Million More People Worldwide into ‘Extreme
Poverty,’” CNN Business, October 7, 2020.
Abhishek Mishra, “Africa and COVID19: Impact, Response, and Challenges to Recovery,”
Observer Research Foundation, September 2020 (posted September 28, 2020), 46 pp.
Peter S. Goodman, Abdi Latif Dahir and Karan Deep Singh, “The Other Way Covid Will Kill:
Hunger Worldwide, the Population Facing Life-Threatening Levels of Food Insecurity Is
Expected to Double, to More Than a Quarter of a Billion People,” New York Times, September 11
(updated September 14), 2020.
Kristalina Georgieva and Gita Gopinath, “Emerging Stronger From the Great Lockdown, The
Managing Director and the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund Lay Out a
Strategy for Sustained Recovery,” Foreign Policy, September 9, 2020.
Augusta Saraiva and Darcy Palder, “After COVID-19, Latin America Braces for ‘Lost Decade,’
Already One of the Most Unequal Regions in the World, It May Face an Unprecedented Rise in
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Inequality and Poverty Due to the Economic Carnage of the Pandemic,” Foreign Policy,
September 4, 2020.
Ashfaq Zaman, “The Developing World Could Come Out of the Pandemic Ahead. Thanks to
Favorable Demographics, Digitization Efforts, and Quicker Health Responses, Many Countries of
the Global South Are Faring Better Than Their Wealthy Counterparts,” Foreign Policy,
September 2, 2020.
Linda Zhang, “COVID-19 Is a Perfect Cover for Xi Jinping’s Stealth Nationalization,” American
Enterprise Institute, August 31, 2020.
Edoardo Campanella, “The Bubonic Plague Killed Feudalism. COVID-19 Will Entrench It.
Throughout History, Pandemics Have Been a Great Equalizer. Here’s Why This Time Is
Different,” Foreign Policy, August 20, 2020.
Juan Montes and Vibhuti Agarwal, “Coronavirus’s Long, Deadly Plateau in the Developing
World,” Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2020.
Lawrence Wright, “How Pandemics Wreak Havoc—and Open Minds, The Plague Marked the
End of the Middle Ages and the Start of a Great Cultural Renewal. Could the Coronavirus, for All
Its Destruction, Offer a Similar Opportunity for Radical Change?” New Yorker, July 13, 2020.
Julie Turkewitz and Sofía Villamil, “In Latin America, the Pandemic Threatens Equality Like
Never Before,” New York Times, July 11 (updated July 13), 2020.
Jonathan D. Moyer and Oliver Kaplan, “Will the Coronavirus Fuel Conflict? Projections Based
on Economic and Development Data Show an Increased Risk of Internal Violence in Fragile
States Driven by Rising Prices and Falling Incomes,” Foreign Policy, July 6, 2020.
Sheri Berman, “Crises Only Sometimes Lead to Change. Here’s Why,” Foreign Policy, July 4,
2020.
Gerald Imray and Joseph Kauss, “Worst Virus Fears Are Realized in Poor or War-torn Countries,”
Associated Press, June 29, 2020.
Yaroslav Trofimov and Drew Hinshaw, “Europe’s Far-Right Fails to Capitalize on Coronavirus
Crisis,” Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2020.
Joe Parkin Daniels, “Latin America’s Wave of Protests Was Historic—Then the Pandemic
Arrived, The Coronavirus and Lockdowns Have Worsened the Region’s Economic Divides—and
Set the Stage for More Political Upheaval,” Foreign Policy, June 25, 2020.
Emil Avdaliani, “Eurasia Disunion, The Pandemic Exacerbates the Divisions in the Kremlin-Led
Body,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 18, 2020.
Maria Snegovaya, Denis Volkov, and Stepan Goncharov, “The Coronavirus Could Hit Putin Most
of All,” Foreign Policy, June 5, 2020.
Frances Z. Brown and Megan Doherty, “How the United States Can Address Global Fragility in a
Pandemic,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 4, 2020.
Fareed Zakaria, “The Pandemic’s Second Stage Is Here—And It’s Getting Ugly,” Washington
Post
, May 28, 2020.
Robyn Dixon, “In Russia’s Pandemic Struggles, Even Putin Couldn’t Speed Bonuses to Health
Workers,” Washington Post, May 27, 2020.
Cyrus Newlin and Heather A. Conley, “Responding to a Pandemic, Putin Trades Russia’s Future
for His Own,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 27, 2020.
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Will Todman, “Assad Attempts to Weaponize COVID-19 in Syria,” The Hill, May 27, 2020.
Nisha Bellinger and Kyle Kattelman, “The Coronavirus Is Boosting Terror Threats in the
Developing World, The Pandemic Exacerbates Worsen Existing Food Crises, Undermining
Stability,” Defense One, May 26, 2020.
Husain Haqqani and Aparna Pande, “Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South
Asia,” Hudson Institute, May 26, 2020.
Herman Pirchner Jr., “Vladimir Putin’s Increasingly Precarious Future,” National Interest, May
26, 2020.
Colm Quinn, “Do Poor Countries Face a Greater Risk From Coronavirus? The WHO Chief Is
‘Very Concerned’ About Rising Cases in Poorer Countries, as Worldwide Cases Pass Five
Million,” Foreign Policy, May 21, 2020.
Brian Whitmore, “The Kremlin's Numbers Rracket, A Persistent and Prolific Propaganda
Machine Meets a Deadly Global Pandemic. Now What Happens?” Center for European Policy
Analysis (CEPA), May 19, 2020.
Janusz Bugajski, “Ethnic Echoes, The Pandemic is Animating Europe’s Ethnic and Regional
Disputes,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 18, 2020.
James Crabtree et al., “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Permanently Expand Government
Powers, Ten Leading Global Thinkers on an Expansion of Government Powers,” Foreign Policy,
May 16, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 10 observers.)
Polina Beliakova, “COVID-19 and the Limits of Putin’s Power,” War on the Rocks, May 13,
2020.
Sidney Lang, “Coronavirus: China Faces Historic Test as Pandemic Stokes Fears of Looming
Unemployment Crisis,” South China Morning Post, May 11, 2020.
Robyn Dixon, “Putin Knows How to Rule Russia as An Autocrat. But He Seems on the Sidelines
Amid Coronavirus Crisis,” Washington Post, May 7, 2020.
Ann M. Simmons, “In Russia, Putin Wrestles With Economic Impact of Coronavirus,” Wall Street
Journal
, May 6, 2020.
Judd Devermont and Simon Allison, “Covid-19 in Africa: The Good News and the Bad,” Center
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 4, 2020.
Nathan Hodge, “As Coronavirus Hits Record Numbers in Russia, This Is a Dangerous Moment
for Putin,” CNN, May 4, 2020.
Clara Ferreira Marques, “Coronavirus Has Exposed Putin’s Brittle Regime,” Bloomberg, May 4,
2020.
Henry Foy, “Russia: Pandemic Tests Putin’s Grip on Power,” Financial Times, May 4, 2020.
Cary Huang, “Coronavirus: China Faces an Economic Reckoning as Covid-19 Turns World
Against Globalisation,” South China Morning Post, May 3, 2020.
Minxin Pei, “China’s Coming Upheaval, Competition, the Coronavirus, and the Weakness of Xi
Jinping,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020.
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World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy
Peter S. Goodman, “One Vaccine Side Effect: Global Economic Inequality, As Covid Inoculations
Begin, the Economic Downturn Stands to be Reversed, but Developing Countries Are at Risk of
Being Left Behind,” New York Times, December 25, 2020.
Reuters, “Pandemic Speeds Labour Shift from Humans to Robots, WEF Survey Finds,” Thomson
Reuters Foundation, October 20, 2020.
Scott Lincicome, “Why a Successful COVID-19 Vaccine Depends on Globalization, Each of the
Vaccines that the United States Has Secured Appears to be Heavily Reliant on Globalization to
Produce the Final Doses at the Absolute Maximum Speed and Scale,” National Interest, October
16, 2020.
Josh Zumbrun and Yuka Hayashi, “China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From
Pandemic, IMF Says,” Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2020.
Eric K. Hontz, “The Fate of Globalization in the Post-Coronavirus Era,” National Interest,
September 12, 2020.
Niccolò Pisani, “Trump’s China ‘Decoupling’ and Coronavirus: Why 2020 Upheaval Won’t Kill
Globalisation,” The Conversation, September 9, 2020.
Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart, “The Pandemic Depression, The Global Economy Will
Never Be the Same,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2020.
Anthony B. Kim, “Protectionism and the Pandemic Are Curtailing Global Trade. Policymakers
Must Act Accordingly,” Heritage Foundation, August 5, 2020.
Hoe Ee Khor and Suan Yong Foo, “What Lies Ahead for Global Value Chains in Asia?” East Asia
Forum
, July 28, 2020.
Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, “This Is What the Future of Globalization Will Look Like,”
Foreign Policy, July 4, 2020.
Anthony Faiola, “The Virus That Shut Down the World,” Washington Post, June 26, 2020.
Ravi Agrawal, “The Pandemic Is Reversing Decades of Progress, A New Report Warns that 120
Million Children in South Asia Could Fall into Poverty This Year Because of Lockdowns—and
Tens of Thousands Could Die from Disease,” Foreign Policy, June 25, 2020.
Stephanie Segal and Dylan Gerstel, “Covid-19 and the Global Financial Safety Net,” Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), June 25, 2020.
Martin Crutsinger, “IMF Downgrades Outlook for Global Economy in Face of Virus,” Associated
Press
, June 24, 2020.
Bruno Maçães, “The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution, Governments Stopped the World
in Its Tracks During the Pandemic—and Our Relationship to the Economy Will Never Be the
Same Again,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2020.
Andy Sumner, Christopher Hoy, and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, “Global Poverty: Coronavirus Could
Drive It Up for the First Time Since the 1990s,” The Conversation, June 16, 2020.
Peter Gourevitch and Deborah Seligsohn, “Remaking the Global System After COVID-19,” East
Asia Forum
, June 7, 2020.
Evelyn Cheng, “China May Become One of Many Hubs as Companies Diversify Manufacturing
After Coronavirus Shock,” CNBC, May 25, 2020.
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Joshua Posaner, “Merkel Warns Against Trade Barriers in Face of Coronavirus Recession,”
Politico, May 20, 2020.
Frank G. Wisner Matthew Kirk, “Here’s What the Coronavirus Means for the Future of
Geopolitics and Trade,” National Interest, May 18, 2020.
Barak M. Seener, “The World is Round: Shifting Supply Chains and a Fragmented World Order,”
National Interest, May 16, 2020.
Rhonda Ferguson, “Why Coronavirus Is an Opportunity to Transform the Global Food Trade,”
National Interest, May 11, 2020.
Asa Fitch, Kate O’Keeffe, and Bob Davis, “Trump and Chip Makers Including Intel Seek
Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency, Pentagon Says Coronavirus Pandemic Underscores
Vulnerability from Reliance on Asian Factories,” Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2020.
Robert E. Lighthizer, “The Era of Offshoring U.S. Jobs Is Over, The Pandemic, and Trump’s
Trade Policy, Are Accelerating a Trend to Bring Manufacturing Back to America,” New York
Times
, May 11, 2020.
Michael Nienaber, “Germany’s Altmaier Wants Europe to Be Less Dependent on Other
Countries,” Reuters, May 9, 2020.
Aaron Friedberg, “The United States Needs to Reshape Global Supply Chains, U.S. Strategy
Needs Reglobalization to Snatch Critical Power Away from China,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2020.
Ana Quintana, James Roberts, and Anthony Kim, “A U.S.–Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Economic
Partnership Recovery Plan,” Heritage Foundation, May 7, 2020.
Desmond Lachman, “Could Italy Default on Its Debt Due to the Coronavirus?” National Interest,
May 7, 2020.
Ruchir Sharma, “The Pandemic Isn’t Changing Everything, It Is Just Speeding Up Trends That
Were Already Underway,” New York Times, May 3, 2020.
James Crabtree, “The End of Emerging Markets? Economies such as Brazil, Indonesia, India,
Russia, and Turkey face a daunting new reality,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2020.
Kevin Sieff, “The U.S. Wants Mexico to Keep Its Defense and Health-Care Factories Open.
Mexican Workers Are Getting Sick and Dying,” Washington Post, May 1, 2020.
Ariel E. Levite and Lyu Jinghua, “Travails of an Interconnected World: From Pandemics to the
Digital Economy,” Lawfare, April 30, 2020.
Nathaniel Taplin, “Trump’s Trade Deal With China Is Another Coronavirus Victim, The
Pandemic Is Exposing the Perils of Agreements Based on Numerical Targets Rather Than Tariff
Reductions or Policy Concessions,” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2020.
Trevor Jackson, “Terminal Deflation Is Coming, Central Banks’ Interventions in the Pandemic
Economy Are Unprecedentedly Vast—and Not Nearly Enough,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2020.
Greg Ip, “Globalization Is Down but Not Out Yet,” Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2020.
Zhou Xin, “Coronavirus: How Will China’s Role in the Global Economy Change When Faced
with Pandemic Backlash?” South China Morning Post, April 28, 2020.
Nicholas Mulder and Adam Tooze, “The Coronavirus Oil Shock Is Just Getting Started,” Foreign
Policy
, April 23, 2020.
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Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, “The Coronavirus Could Upend Trump’s China Trade Deal,”
Foreign Policy, April 21, 2020.
Richard Fontaine, “Globalization Will Look Very Different After the Coronavirus Pandemic,”
Foreign Policy, April 17, 2020.
Neil Irwin, “It’s the End of the World Economy as We Know It, Experts Suggest There Will Be
‘A Rethink of How Much Any Country Wants to Be Reliant on Any Other Country,’” New York
Times
, April 16, 2020.
Robert Delaney, “Economic Havoc Wreaked by Coronavirus Has Likely Throttled US-China
Trade Deal, Experts Say,” South China Morning Post, April 15, 2020.
Joseph E. Stiglitz et al., “How the Economy Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic, The
Pandemic Will Change the Economic and Financial Order Forever. We Asked Nine Leading
Global Thinkers for Their Predictions,” Foreign Policy, April 15, 2020.
Martin Wolf, “The World Economy Is Now Collapsing, A Microbe Has Overthrown Our
Arrogance and Sent Global Output into a Tailspin,” Financial Times, April 14, 2020.
Josh Zumbrun, “Coronavirus-Afflicted Global Economy Is Almost Certainly in Recession,” Wall
Street Journal
, April 14, 2020.
By Raphael S. Cohen Sunday, “The Coronavirus Will Not Stop Globalization,” Lawfare, April
12, 2020.
Dalia Marin, “How COVID-19 Is Transforming Manufacturing,” Project Syndicate, April 3,
2020.
Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances
Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, Sovereign Solidarity, France, the US, and Alliances in a
Post-Covid World
, Atlantic Council, 2020 (released November 11, 2020), 28 pp.
Pierre Morcos, Toward a New “Lost Decade”? Covid-19 and Defense Spending in Europe,
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), October 2020 (posted October 15, 2020), 7
pp.
Alice Billon-Galland, COVID-19 and the Defence Policies of European States, NATO Defense
College, October 2020, 4 pp.
Claudia Major, Catalyst or Crisis? COVID-19 and European Security, NATO Defense College,
October 2020, 4 pp.
Olivier Rittimann, NATO and the COVID-19 Emergency: Actions and Lessons, NATO Defense
College
, September 2020, 4 pp.
Sten Rynning, A Renewed Collective Defense Bargain? NATO in COVID’s Shadow, NATO
Defense College, September 2020, 4 pp.
Charles V. Peña, “Money and Missions: NATO Should Learn from Europe’s Pandemic
Response,” Defense News, August 20, 2020.
Yukio Tajima, “Japan Must Rethink Excessive Reliance on US Security, Says Expert,” Nikkei
Asian Review
, July 7, 2020.
Daniel Hurst, “Australia to Acquire Long-Range Missiles as PM Warns of Dangerous Post-
Covid-19 World,” Guardian, June 30, 2020.
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Kurt Volker, “Think Big, To Build a Post-pandemic World Order We Must Wake a Sleeping
Giant: NATO,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 12, 2020.
John Grady, “COVID-19 Pandemic Changing How NATO Thinks of Global Security,” USNI
News
, June 9, 2020.
Steven Erlanger, “European Defense and ‘Strategic Autonomy’ Are Also Coronavirus Victims,”
New York Times, May 23, 2020.
Mihail Naydenov, “NATO and its Eastern Flank: Challenges of a Post-COVID Environment,”
Middle East Institute, May 21, 2020.
Silvia Amaro, “Coronavirus Could Hit Defense Spending and Spark NATO Tensions Once
Again,” CNBC, May 13, 2020.
Ben Doherty, “The Indispensable Nation? Covid-19 Tests the US-Australian Alliance,” Guardian,
May 5, 2020.
Wallace C. Gregson, “The Coronavirus Creates New National Security Problems for America,”
National Defense, May 3, 2020.
Thierry Tardy, editor, COVID-19: NATO in the Age of Pandemics, NATO Defense College, May
2020, 69 pp.
European Union
Caroline de Gruyter, “Europe Needed Borders. Coronavirus Built Them. The Pandemic Has the
Continent Increasingly Discussing Its Common Boundaries—and Common Identity,” Foreign
Policy
, December 4, 2020.
Colm Quinn, “Can Europe Come Together to Save Itself? A Quarrel over the EU Coronavirus
Fund Threatens to Stall Economic Recovery Efforts,” Foreign Policy, November 19, 2020.
Joseph de Weck and Elettra Ardissino, “The Pandemic Is Showing What the EU Is Good For,”
Foreign Policy, September 8, 2020.
Adam Tooze, “It’s a New Europe—if You Can Keep It, The Continent Has Managed to Take a
Great Leap Forward—But There Still Might Be a Crash Landing,” Foreign Policy, August 7,
2020.
Editorial Board, “The Pandemic Has Made Europe Stronger,” Washington Post, July 28, 2020.
Joseph de Weck, “Germany Is Finally Ready to Spend, In the Long Run, the COVID-19
Pandemic May Change Europe’s Economy for the Better,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2020.
Patrick Donahue and Arne Delfs, “Merkel Calls for Agreement on EU Fund Before Summer
Break,” Bloomberg, June 18, 2020.
Desmond Lachman, “A Eurozone Economic Crisis Thanks to Coronavirus?” National Interest,
June 2, 2020.
Michael Birnbaum, “Germany, borrowing from Trump, says it wants to make Europe ‘strong
again,’” Washington Post, May 29, 2020.
Trevor Jackson, “Forget Hamilton. This Is Europe’s Calonne Moment,” Foreign Policy, May 29,
2020.
Adriano Bosoni, “Will COVID-19 Be the Eurozone’s Undoing?” Stratfor, May 27, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Michael Birnbaum and Loveday Morris, “E.U. Proposes $825 Billion Coronavirus Rescue Plan
Giving Brussels Power to Raise Money for First Time,” Washington Post, May 27, 2020.
Editorial Board, “Europe Seeks Its ‘Hamilton Moment,’ Too Bad the EU Skips Over the Part
About Democratic Legitimacy,” Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2020.
Robin Emmott, “EU Keeps Defence Fund Alive with 8 Billion Euro Proposal,” Reuters, May 27,
2020.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, “A €750 Billion Virus Recovery Plan Thrusts Europe Into a New
Frontier,” New York Times, May 27 (updated May 28), 2020.
Associated Press, “EU’s Top Diplomat Urges ‘More Robust Strategy’ Toward China,”
Washington Post, May 25, 2020.
Sylvie Kauffmann, “Can Europe Stay Back From the Brink? After Three Months of Chaos and
Deaths Caused by the Pandemic, the Continent, Led by Germany and France, Is Giving
Convergence Another Try,” New York Times, May 22, 2020.
Paul Hockenos, “Has the Coronavirus Disappeared Climate Politics? Europe’s Pandemic Bailouts
Are Trying to Save the Continent’s Economy. Less Clear Is If They Can Save the Planet,”
Foreign Policy, May 21, 2020.
John Chalmers, Gabriela Baczynska, “‘It’s Up to Us’: How Merkel and Macron Revived EU
Solidarity,” Reuters, May 20, 2020.
Angela Charlton, Lorne Cook, and Jari Tanner (Associated Press), “Germany Breaks Taboo in
Effort to Get EU Through Pandemic,” New York Times, May 19, 2020.
Andreas Rinke and John Revill, “Europe Risks Being Left Behind China, U.S. by Coronavirus:
Siemens CEO,” Reuters, May 19, 2020.
Denise Roland, Noemie Bisserbe, and Nick Kostov, “Europe Falls Behind U.S. in Funding
Coronavirus Vaccine—and Securing Access,” Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2020.
Steven Erlanger, “Merkel, Breaking German ‘Taboo,’ Backs Shared E.U. Debt to Tackle Virus,”
New York Times, May 18, 2020.
Liam Kennedy, “How Coronavirus Revealed the Weakness of Europe, Coronavirus Has
Underlined the Frailty of the ‘European Project’ and Deepened Anxiety About Its Future,”
National Interest, May 14, 2020.
Nikos Chrysoloras, “Debt Crisis, Brexit, Now Virus. Can the EU Survive?” Bloomberg, May 13,
2020.
Jennifer Rankin, “EU Faces ‘Existential Threat’ If Coronavirus Recovery Is Uneven,” Guardian,
May 13, 2020.
Andrew Small, “The Meaning of Systemic Rivalry: Europe and China Beyond the Pandemic,”
European Council on Foreign Relations, May 13, 2020.
Lorne Cook, “Concern Mounts That Border Measures Threaten EU Free Travel,” Associated
Press
, May 12, 2020.
“EU’s Top Diplomat Warns Against Defense Cuts,” Defense News, May 12, 2020. (This article
does not list an author.)
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, “Israel and the European Union in times of coronavirus pandemic,”
Jerusalem Post, May 10, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Bjarke Smith-Meyer and Paola Tamma, “Brussels Eyes a Bigger EU Shareholder Role in the
Coronavirus Recovery,” Politico, May 10 (updated May 11), 2020.
Michael Birnbaum, “E.U. Defends Handling of China Relations After Beijing Censors Op-ed
Written by Bloc’s Ambassadors,” Washington Post, May 7, 2020.
Heather A. Conley, “Covid-19 May Encourage a No-Deal Brexit,” Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), May 7, 2020.
Lorne Cook and Llazar Semini, “EU Aims to Reassure Balkans with Virus Aid, Economic
Support,” Associated Press, May 6, 2020.
Christopher Caldwell, “Can the European Union Survive a Pandemic? The Coronavirus Crisis
Has Turned Its Member Nations Against Each Other,” New Republic, May 5, 2020.
Rick Noack, “The Coronavirus Has Brought Back Border Barriers in Europe, Dividing Couples,
Families and Communities,” Washington Post, May 1, 2020.
Donatienne Ruy and Heather A. Conley, “Covid-19 and the Search for an Ambitious EU
Recovery Fund,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 1, 2020.
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security
Jacob Parakilas, “The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does, And
Science and Technology Will Only Take Us So Far When It Comes to Future Threats,
Conventional or Otherwise,” Diplomat, December 23, 2020.
Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Rebuilding America in the Post Trump Era, The
Trump Administration’s Woeful Response to Many Threats, but Especially the Coronavirus
Pandemic, Demonstrates that Dealing with Tomorrow’s Bioterror Threat Must be a National
Security Priority,” National Interest, December 18, 2020.
Kevin Bilms, “Will COVID Finally Force Us to Think Differently About National Security? The
‘Softer’ Approaches of Irregular War Offer Outsized Benefits During Competition and Armed
Conflict Alike,” Defense One, December 15, 2020.
Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel, “Coronavirus Pandemic Stands to Force Changes in
U.S. Spy Services, After Years of Underplaying Soft Threats Like Disease and Climate Change,
National-Security Establishment Faces Calls for a New Approach,” Wall Street Journal,
November 22, 2020.
Uri Firedman, “The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power, In the COVID-19
Era, a Country’s Strength Is Determined Not Only by Its Military and Economy, but Also by Its
Resilience,” Atlantic, November 15, 2020.
Frank Hoffman, “National Security in the Post-Pandemic Era,” Orbis, Winter 2021: 17-45. (The
first page of the article carries an additional date of November 2020.)
Marigny Kirschke-Schwartz, “America Must Act To Avoid A Biotechnology Arms Race, the
Covid-19 Pandemic Has Shown Us the Potential for a Biological Incident to Upend Global
Stability, and the Implications Are Sobering,” National Interest, September 22, 2020.
Calder Walton, “US Intelligence, the Coronavirus and the Age of Globalized Challenges,” Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs, August 24, 2020.
Brad Bannon, “Military Madness in the Age of COVID-19,” The Hill, July 6, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Savannah Wooten, “Rethinking the Military Budget Amid the Coronavirus Crisis,” National
Interest
, June 30, 2020.
Brandon Valeriano, Lauren Sander, and Eric Gomez, “The Senate’s Defense Authorization Bill
Ignores Our New Reality,” Defense One, June 17, 2020.
Shane Harris and Missy Ryan, “To Prepare for the Next Pandemic, the U.S. Needs to Change Its
National Security Priorities, Experts Say,” Washington Post, June 16, 2020.
John Grady, “Panel: COVID-19 Pandemic Could Prompt Changes to National Security
Spending,” USNI News, June 15 (updated June 16), 2020.
Laicie Heeley, “We Prepared for War, But Should Have Spent Our Money Elsewhere,” Defense
News
, June 10, 2020.
Sue Gordon, “Op-ed: The Coronavirus Pandemic Should Change the Way We Look at National
Security,” CNBC, May 28, 2020.
Anca Agachi, “The Miner’s Canary: COVID-19 and the Rise of Non-Traditional Security
Threats,” Defense One, May 16, 2020.
Joseph Marks, “The Cybersecurity 202: Security Pros Form Alliance to Help Hospitals Facing
Hacking Threats During Pandemic,” Washington Post, May 4, 2020.
Bejamin H. Friedman, Restraint: A Post-COVID-19 U.S. National Security Strategy, Defense
Priorities, May 2020, 4 pp.
Greg Barbaccia, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Force a Paradigm Shift in the U.S. Intelligence
Community,” National Interest, April 23, 2020.
Kori Schake, “A New Org Chart Won’t Stop the Next Pandemic,” Bloomberg, April 22, 2020.
Rachel Olney, “How Will the Pandemic Affect National Security Innovation?” War on the Rocks,
April 21, 2020.
Christopher Woody, “After Coronavirus, the US Needs to Worry about a ‘7th domain’ of Warfare,
Top Navy Commander in Europe Says,” Business Insider, April 17, 2020.
David E. Sanger, “Analysis: Will Pandemic Make Trump Rethink National Security?” New York
Times
, April 15, 2020.
Benjamin Jensen, “When Systems Fail: What Pandemics and Cyberspace Tell Us About the
Future of National Security,” War on the Rocks, April 9, 2020.
Christopher Preble, “How will COVID-19 Change US National Security Strategy?” Responsible
Statecraft
, April 8, 2020.
Glenn S. Gerstell and Michael Morell, “Four Ways U.S. Intelligence Efforts Should Change in the
Wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Washington Post, April 7, 2020.
Oona A. Hathaway, “After COVID-19, We Need to Redefine ‘National Security,’ The Post-9/11
Era Is Over,” Slate, April 7, 2020.
Zachery Tyson Brown, “America’s National Security Software Needs an Upgrade, The Outdated
U.S. Security Apparatus Was Completely Unprepared for the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Foreign
Policy
, April 6, 2020.
Ben Rhodes, “The 9/11 Era Is Over, The Coronavirus Pandemic and a Chapter of History That
Should Have Expired Long Ago,” Atlantic, April 6, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Gregory D. Koblentz and Michael Hunzeker, “National Security in the Age of Pandemics,”
Defense One, April 3, 2020.
Nahal Toosi, “Coronavirus Rattles America’s National Security Priesthood,” Politico Pro, March
29, 2020.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19’s Painful Lesson about Strategy and Power,” War on the Rocks,
March 26, 2020.
Gary J. Schmitt, “National Security and the Pandemic of 2020,” American Interest, March 20,
2020.
U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations
America’s Strategic Choices: Defense Spending in a Post-Covid-19 World, An Executive Outbrief
From The CSBA–Ronald Reagan Institute Defense Worskhops
, Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments, January 2021, 13 pp.
Tony Bertuca, “Lord Says Pandemic Sharpened DOD’s Focus on Re-Shoring, Especially
Microelectronics,” Inside Defense, September 29, 2020.
Mike Glenn, “Don’t Pay for COVID-19 Relief at Expense of Nation's Defense, Esper Warns,”
Washington Times, September 24, 2020.
Mackenzie Eaglen, “More Safety for Less Security Is a Sucker Bet,” American Enterprise
Institute, September 3, 2020.
Jon Harper, “Army a Potential Bill Payer for COVID-19 Costs,” National Defense, August 18,
2020.
Matt Vallone, “U.S. Defense Spending During and After the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, July
31, 2020.
Franklin C. Miller, “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste,” Real Clear Defense, June 1, 2020.
John C. Hulsman, “Defense Spending Post-Coronavirus: How to Walk and Chew Gum at the
Same Time,” The Hill, May 31, 2020.
Eric Gomez, Christopher A. Preble, Lauren Sander, and Brandon Valeriano, “Building a Modern
Military: The Force Meets Geopolitical Realities,” Cato Institute, May 26, 2020.
Courtney Albon, “AFWIC deputy: Air Force Needs New NDS Implementation Plan in Light of
COVID-19,” Inside Defense, May 27, 2020.
Eric Lofgren, “Will Defense Budgets Remain ‘Sticky’ After the COVID-19 Pandemic?” Defense
News
, May 26, 2020.
Bradley Bowman, “Don’t Use COVID As Excuse to Slash Defense Spending,” Breaking Defense,
May 20, 2020.
Missy Ryan, “Military Faces Another Potential Coronavirus Toll: Budget Cuts,” Washington Post,
May 15, 2020.
Morgan Dwyer, “Prioritizing Weapon System Cybersecurity in a Post-Pandemic Defense
Department,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 13, 2020.
Robert Burns, “Bulging Deficits May Threaten Prized Pentagon Arms Projects,” Associated
Press
, May 12, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Loren Thompson, “Think You Know Where Defense Spending Is Headed After Coronavirus?
Guess Again,” Forbes, May 12, 2020.
Michael E. O’Hanlon, “From the Pentagon’s ‘4+1’ threat matrix, to ‘4+1 times 2,’” Brookings
Institution, May 11, 2020.
Steven Pifer, “Weapons, Opportunity Costs, COVID19 and Avoiding Nuclear War,” National
Interest
, May 11, 2020.
Bryan Clark and Dan Platt, “The Post-Pandemic Military Will Need to Improvise,” Defense One,
May 8, 2020.
Susan Montoya Bryan (Associated Press), “US Must Move Ahead with Work on Nukes, Says
Nuclear Security Boss,” Defense News, May 6, 2020.
Leo Shane III, “No Extra Money for Defense Amid Coronavirus Crisis, Think Tank Argues,”
Military Times, May 6, 2020.
Hal Brands, “Can a Broke America Fight a Cold War With China? The Coronavirus Has United
Americans Against Beijing’s Aggressions, But It Will Also Devastate the Pentagon Budget,”
Bloomberg, May 5, 2020.
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, “Expand Missile Defenses During the Pandemic, Don’t Cut Them,”
Defense News, May 5, 2020.
Fred Kaplan, “Now Is the Time to Cut the Defense Budget,” Slate, May 5, 2020.
Paul McLeary, “Old Weapons Under Fire As COVID Debt Rises,” Breaking Defense, May 5,
2020.
Aaron Mehta, “Esper: Flat Budget Could Speed Cutting of Legacy Programs,” Defense News,
May 5, 2020.
John M. Donnelly, “US military poised for post-pandemic shift,” CQ (Congressional Quarterly),
May 4, 2020.
Ben Werner, “SECDEF Esper Preparing For Future Defense Spending Cuts,” USNI News, May 4,
2020.
Rebecca Kheel, “Defense Budget Brawl Looms After Pandemic,” The Hill, May 3, 2020.
Anrea Howard, “The Pandemic and America’s Response to Future Bioweapons,” War on the
Rocks
, May 1, 2020.
Paul McLeary, “Pentagon Wary Of Adversaries Buying Defense Firms Amid Economic Crisis,”
Breaking Defense, April 30, 2020.
Ben Wolfgang, “U.S. Military Ramps Up Counterterrorism Operations in Africa Amid
Pandemic,” Washington Times, April 29, 2020.
David Barno and Nora Bensahel, “Five Ways the U.S. Military Will Change After the Pandemic,”
War on the Rocks, April 28, 2020.
Maiya Clark, “How Pentagon Is Protecting Defense Supply Chains From COVID-19,” Heritage
Foundation, April 27, 2020.
Theresa Hitchens, “DoD Budget Cuts Likely As $4 Trillion Deficit Looms,” Breaking Defense,
April 27, 2020.
Walter Russell Mead, “The Century of Bioweapons,” Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Connor O’Brien, “Defense Boosters Fire Warning Shots over Budget Cuts Due to Pandemic,”
Politico Pro, April 24, 2020.
Natasha Bertrand, Daniel Lippman, and Lara Seligman, “Officials Probe the Threat of a
Coronavirus Bioweapon,” Politico Pro, April 23, 2020.
William D. Hartung, “Now Isn’t the Time to Push for Nuclear Modernization,” Defense News,
April 21, 2020.
Loren Thompson, “How Coronavirus Could Permanently Transform The U.S. Military,” Forbes,
April 20, 2020.
Todd Harrison, “DoD Must Identify Its ‘Crown Jewels’ in Preparation for Fiscal Uncertainty,”
Defense News, April 15, 2020.
Michael J. Mazarr, “Toward a New Theory of Power Projection,” War on the Rocks, April 15,
2020.
Robert Burns, “Military Sees No Quick Exit From ‘New World’ of Coronavirus,” Associated
Press
, April 14, 2020.
Tony Bertuca, “Global Pandemic Threatens to Hobble National Defense Strategy,” Inside
Defense
, April 13, 2020.
David Ignatius, “The Coronavirus Is Already Reshaping Defense Strategies,” Washington Post,
April 9, 2020.
Daniel L. Davis, “Coronavirus Means No More Money for Forever Wars,” National Interest,
April 7, 2020.
Harrison Schramm, Kevin A. Chlan, Peter Kouretsos, COVID-19, Analysis and Policy
Implications
, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2020 (released April 7, 2020), 31
pp.
Jason Sherman, “Analyst: Pandemic Will Squeeze Defense Spending As Nation’s Focus Shifts to
Health Care,” Inside Defense, April 6, 2020.
Stratfor Worldview, “Will the Coronavirus Ruin Countries’ Ability to Wage War?” National
Interest
, April 5, 2020.
James G. Foggo III, “Germs: The Seventh Domain of Warfare,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings,
April 2020.
U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee
Policy
Gabriele Steinhauser and Joe Wallace, “Africa’s First Pandemic Default Tests New Effort to Ease
Debt From China, Effort to Ensure that China and Bondholders Participate in Debt Restructurings
Could Help Resolve Zambia’s Default,” Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2020.
Dan Runde, Conor Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, Post-pandemic Governance in the Indo-
Pacific, Adapting USAID’s Strategy in the Face of Covid-19
, Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), September 2020 (posted September 25, 2020), 11 pp.
Sam Denney and Kemal Kirisci, “COVID-19 and the Chance to Reform U.S. Refugee Policy,”
Lawfare, August 18, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Daniel F. Runde, “USAID Should Lead Global Pandemic Response in an Age of Great Power
Competition,” The Hill, August 17, 2020.
Rayn Ellis, “Conservative Foreign Aid Can Strengthen US Interests in the Coronavirus
Recovery,” Washington Examiner, August 11, 2020.
Jamille Bigio and Haydn Welch, “As the Global Economy Melts Down, Human Trafficking Is
Booming,” Foreign Policy, August 10, 2020.
Zuhumnan Dapel, “It Is Too Late to Save These Victims of the Pandemic, The COVID-19
Catastrophe Is Shrinking Remittances from the United States and Creating a Looming
Humanitarian Disaster,” Foreign Policy, July 20, 2020.
Frances D’Emilio, “UN: Pandemic Could Push Tens of Millions into Chronic Hunger,”
Associated Press, July 13, 2020.
Emily Hawthorne, “COVID-19 Cash Shortages Will Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts,”
Stratfor, June 30, 2020.
Olivia Enos, “The Danger for Refugees and the Most Vulnerable During COVID-19,” Heritage
Foundation, June 22, 2020.
Stephanie Segel, “International Financial Institutions Step Up, but Debt Sustainability Looms
Large for Future Support,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 21, 2020.
Joel Gehrke, “Fighting China with Foreign Aid: USAID Becomes a Critical Tool in Battle for
World Influence,” Washington Examiner, May 10, 2020.
Michael H. Fuchs, Alexandra Schmitt, and Haneul Lee, “Foreign Aid is Critical to Stopping the
Coronavirus,” National Interest, May 3, 2020.
Daniel F. Runde, Conor M. Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, “Covid-19 Has Consequences for
U.S. Foreign Aid and Global Leadership,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),
May 1, 2020.
James Kynge and Sun Yu, “China Faces Wave of Calls for Debt Relief on ‘Belt and Road’
Projects,” Financial Times, April 30, 2020.
Charles Holmes, Anthony Lake, and Witney Schneidman, “It’s Time to Help Africa Fight the
Virus, The Continent Is Ripe for a Public Health Disaster, and Western Powers Must Step in to
Prevent Another Global Catastrophe,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2020.
Department of State, “The United States Continues Leadership in the Global COVID-19
Response With More Than $270 Million in Additional U.S. Foreign Assistance,” press statement,
Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State, April 22, 2020.
Matthew Lee, “Virus Pandemic Collides with Trump’s Disdain for Foreign Aid,” Associated
Press
, April 17, 2020.
Adam Tooze, “A Global Pandemic Bailout Was Coming—Until America Stopped It,” Foreign
Policy
, April 17, 2020.
Editorial Board, “Even as Rich Countries Reel, It’s Imperative to Help Emerging Markets,”
Washington Post, April 16, 2020.
Dayo Israel, “Unless Canceled, Africa’s Debt Burden Will Cause COVID-19 to Kill Millions,”
Washington Examiner, April 16, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Cara Anna and Aya Batrawy, “Richest Countries Agree to Freeze Poorer Nations’ Debt,”
Associated Press, April 15, 2020.
Nahal Toosi, “Trump Hobbles Foreign Aid as Coronavirus Rips Around the World, Confusion at
the Top Has Crippled USAID at a Critical Time for the Global Battle Against the Pandemic,”
Politico, April 15, 2020.
Olivia Enos, “Responding to COVID-19 in Southeast Asia,” Heritage Foundation, April 14, 2020.
Josh Zumbrun, “G-7 Countries Support Debt Relief for Poorest Countries If Joined by Full G-
20,” Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2020.
Robbie Gramer, “Outgoing USAID Chief Says Pandemic Underscores Importance of Foreign
Aid,” Foreign Policy, April 13, 2020.
Josh Rogin, “The Pandemic Means the Trump Administration Must Stop Mistreating USAID,”
Washington Post, April 9, 2020.
Josh Rogin, “America’s $2 Trillion Coronavirus Stimulus Package Ignores the Rest of the
World,” Washington Post, March 26, 2020.
Non-state Actors
Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “The Pandemic Is Putting Gangsters in Power, As
States Struggle, Organized Crime Is Rising to New Prominence,” Foreign Policy, February 15,
2021.
Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “How to Run a Criminal Network in a Pandemic,
Drug Dealers and Human Traffickers Are Upgrading Their Marketing and Delivery Services,”
Foreign Policy, September 5, 2020.
Joby Warrick, “Covid-19 Pandemic Is Stoking Extremist Flames Worldwide, Analysts Warn,”
Washington Post, July 9, 2020.
Ioan Grillo, “How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Profiting From the Pandemic,” New York Times,
July 7, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Provides Opportunity for Terrorists,” Associated
Press
, July 6, 2020.
Robin Simcox, “Terrorism After the Pandemic, Months of Isolation and Governments Grappling
with Other Crises Could Lead to a Rise in Attacks,” Foreign Policy, July 2, 2020.
Zachary Abuza and Alif Satria, “How Are Indonesia’s Terrorist Groups Weathering the
Pandemic?” Diplomat, June 23, 2020.
Camilo Tamayo Gomez, “Coronavirus: Drug Cartels Functioning as Governing Bodies Could
Receive Popularity Boost,” National Interest, June 23, 2020.
Simon Harding, “How Gangs and Drug Dealers Adapted to the Pandemic Reality,” National
Interest
, June 22, 2020.
Nikita Malik, “How to Prepare for the Coronavirus’s Impact on Terrorism,” National Interest,
June 21, 2020.
Anthony Faiola and Lucien Chauvin, “The Coronavirus Has Gutted the Price of Coca. It Could
Reshape the Cocaine Trade,” Washington Post, June 9, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Alexandra Lamarche, Arden Bentley, Rachel Schmidtke, and Sahar Atrache, “The Coronavirus
Has Become Terrorists’ Combat Weapon of Choice,” National Interest, June 9, 2020.
Audrey Wilson, “Goodbye, Government. Hello, Mafia. From Insurgent Groups to Charities, a
Range of Nongovernmental Organizations Are Stepping In to Respond to the Coronavirus
Crisis,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.
Ryan Browne, “ISIS Seeks to Exploit Pandemic to Mount Resurgence in Iraq and Syria,” CNN,
May 8, 2020.
Robert Muggah, “The Pandemic Has Triggered Dramatic Shifts in the Global Criminal
Underworld,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2020.
Ashley Jackson, “For the Taliban, the Pandemic Is a Ladder,” Foreign Policy, May 6, 2020.
Brandon Prins, “Why Coronavirus May Lead to More Piracy,” National Interest, May 6, 2020.
Emilia Columbo and Marielle Harris, “Extremist Groups Stepping up Operations during the
Covid-19 Outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),
May 1, 2020.
Lydia Khalil, “COVID-19 and America’s Counter-Terrorism Response,” War on the Rocks, May
1, 2020.
Luke Baker, “Militants, Fringe Groups Exploiting COVID-19, Warns EU Anti-Terrorism Chief,”
Reuters, April 30, 2020.
Joseph Hincks, “With the World Busy Fighting COVID-19, Could ISIS Mount a Resurgence?”
Time, April 29, 2020.
Luis Fajardo, “Coronavirus: Latin American Crime Gangs Adapt to Pandemic,” BBC, April 22,
2020.
Raffaello Pantucci, “After the Coronavirus, Terrorism Won’t Be the Same,” Foreign Policy, April
22, 2020.
Valentina Di Donato and Tim Lister, “The Mafia Is Poised to Exploit Coronavirus, and Not Just
in Italy,” CNN, April 19, 2020.
Jim Mustian and Jake Bleiberg, “‘Cartels Are Scrambling’: Virus Snarls Global Drug Trade,”
Associated Press, April 19, 2020.
Colum Lynch, “How Trump and Putin Weakened U.N. Bid for a Global Cease-Fire, U.S. Officials
Worry That Counterterrorism Operations Will Be Constrained,” Foreign Policy, April 17, 2020.
Seth J. Frantzman, “Iran Regime, ISIS and Other Extremists Exploit Coronavirus to Wreak
Havoc,” Jerusalem Post, April 16, 2020.
Kevin Sieff, Susannah George, and Kareem Fahim, “Now Joining the Fight Against Coronavirus:
The World’s Armed Rebels, Drug Cartels and Gangs,” Washington Post, April 14, 2020.
Souad Mekhennet, “Far-Right and Radical Islamist Groups Are Exploiting Coronavirus Turmoil,”
Washington Post, April 10, 2020.
Yonah Jeremy Bob, “Coronavirus Economic Impact Could Block Iran from Funding Terror—
INSS,” Jerusalem Post, April 7, 2020.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, “What Coronavirus Means for Online Fraud, Forced Sex, Drug Smuggling
and Wildlife Trafficking,” Lawfare, April 3, 2020.
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Cara Anna, “Extremists See Global Chaos from Virus As An Opportunity,” Associated Press,
April 2, 2020.
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than COVID-19
David Ignatius, “The Rest of the World Is Taking Advantage of a Distracted America,”
Washington Post, October 6, 2020.
David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Edward Wong, “As Virus Toll Preoccupies U.S., Rivals Test
Limits of American Power,” New York Times, June 1 (updated June 2), 2020.
James Jay Carafano, “Amid Coronavirus, Global Challenges Remain for U.S.—Keep Eye on
These 3 Hot Spots,” Heritage Foundation, May 20, 2020.
Kathrin Hille, “Taiwan Fears Uptick in Military Threat from China in Wake of Coronavirus,”
Financial Times, May 18, 2020.
Steven Erlanger, “Will the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis?” New York Times, May
9 (updated May 11), 2020.
Steve Mollman, “China’s South China Sea Plan Unfolds Regardless of the Coronavirus,” Quartz,
May 9, 2020.
Thomas Spoehr, “U.S. Can’t Afford to Take Its Eye off the Ball As National Threats Loom
Beyond COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation, May 8, 2020.
Arjun Kapur, “Scotland Launched an Invasion During the Black Death. Does History Tell China
to Attack Taiwan?” National Interest, May 2, 2020.
Con Coughlin, “China Exploiting the Coronavirus Pandemic to Expand in Asia,” Gatestone
Institute
, April 30, 2020.
Corinne Redfern, “The Pandemic’s Hidden Human Trafficking Crisis, The Coronavirus Has
Created More People Vulnerable to Exploitation by Traffickers—and Revealed the World’s
Unpreparedness to Protect Them,” Foreign Policy, April 30, 2020.
Paul Haenle, “Security Concerns in Asia-Pacific Escalate Amid Coronavirus Scramble, While the
Trump Administration Is Consumed with the Coronavirus, China and North Korea Are Seizing
the Moment for Strategic Advantage,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 29,
2020.
Bertil Lintner, “Time May Be Ripe for China to Invade Taiwan, Pandemic Has Left a US Security
Vacuum Around the Self-Governing Island China Has Oft-Vowed to ‘Reincorporate’ with the
Mainland,” Asia Times, April 28, 2020.
Victor Davis Hanson, “Pandemic Only 1 of America’s Security Concerns,” Daily Signal, April
23, 2020.
Emily Estelle, “Eyes on the Other Global Crises,” Real Clear World, April 21, 2020.
Yew Lun Tian and Ben Blanchard, “China Rattles Sabres as World Battles Coronavirus
Pandemic,” Reuters, April 21, 2021.
Gordon Lubold and Dion Nissenbaum, “With Trump Facing Virus Crisis, U.S. Warns Rivals Not
to Seek Advantage,” Wall Street Journal, April 20, 2020.
Ellen Mitchell, “Foreign Powers Test US Defenses Amid Coronavirus Pandemic,” The Hill, April
19, 2020.
Congressional Research Service
40

COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Karen DeYoung, “Foreign Policy Challenges Persist for a Distracted U.S. in the Midst of
Pandemic,” Washington Post, April 10, 2020.
Sylvie Lanteaume (Agence France-Presse), “Hit by Virus, Pentagon Warns Enemies: Don’t Test
Us,” Yahoo News, April 10, 2020.
“With the world distracted, China intimidates Taiwan,” Economist, April 8, 2020. (This article
does not list an author.)
Role of Congress
Daniel P. Vajdich, “Congress Has Been AWOL on U.S. Coronavirus Diplomacy, The Invisibility
and Silence of Congress Is Another Reason for America’s Shocking Abdication of Global
Leadership,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.
George Ingram and Jeffrey L. Sturchio, “How Congress Can Address the International
Dimensions of the COVID-19 Response,” Brookings Institution, April 15, 2020.
Rob Berschinski and Benjamin Haas, “How Congress Can Save Lives, Protect Rights, and Exert
U.S. Leadership Globally in Response to Coronavirus,” Just Security, April 8, 2020.
Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, “Pandemic Stymies Congressional Check on Trump’s Foreign
Policy,” Foreign Policy, April 8, 2020.


Author Information

Ronald O'Rourke
Kathleen J. McInnis
Specialist in Naval Affairs
Specialist in International Security



Acknowledgments
A third original co-author of this report was Michael Moodie, who was Assistant Director of the Foreign
Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS and a Senior Specialist in Foreign Affairs, Defense, and
Trade until his retirement from CRS in December 2020.

Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
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under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
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Congressional Research Service
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