[Archived] COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment—Overview of Issues and Further Reading for Congress

Changes from August 5, 2021 to October 5, 2021

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COVID-19: Potential Implications for
~~August~~October 5, 2021 5, 2021
International Security Environment—Overview Ronald O'Rourke
of Issues and Further Reading for Congress
Specialist in Naval Affairs Specialist in Naval Affairs

Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentialy Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentialy
Kathleen J. McInnis
profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment. Other profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment. Other
Specialist in International Specialist in International
observers are more skeptical that the pandemic will have such effects. observers are more skeptical that the pandemic will have such effects.
Security Security

In reports issued in March and April 2021, the U.S. intelligence community provided In reports issued in March and April 2021, the U.S. intelligence community provided
assessments of the potential impact of the pandemic on the international security environment.assessments of the potential impact of the pandemic on the international security environment.

Observers who argue the pandemic could be world-changing for the international security environment have focused on Observers who argue the pandemic could be world-changing for the international security environment have focused on
several areas of potential change, including the following, which are listed here separately but overlap in some cases and can several areas of potential change, including the following, which are listed here separately but overlap in some cases and can
interact with one another: interact with one another:
 world order, international institutions, and global governance;  world order, international institutions, and global governance;
 U.S. global leadership and the U.S. role in the world;  U.S. global leadership and the U.S. role in the world;
 China’s potential role as a global leader;  China’s potential role as a global leader;
 U.S. relations and great power competition with China and Russia;  U.S. relations and great power competition with China and Russia;
 the relative prevalence of democratic and authoritarian or autocratic forms of government;  the relative prevalence of democratic and authoritarian or autocratic forms of government;
 societal tension, reform, transformation, and governmental stability in various countries;  societal tension, reform, transformation, and governmental stability in various countries;
 the world economy, globalization, and U.S. trade policy;  the world economy, globalization, and U.S. trade policy;
 allied defense spending and U.S. alliances;  allied defense spending and U.S. alliances;
 the cohesion of the European Union;  the cohesion of the European Union;
 the definition of, and budgeting for, U.S. national security;  the definition of, and budgeting for, U.S. national security;
 U.S. defense strategy, defense budgets, and military operations;  U.S. defense strategy, defense budgets, and military operations;
 U.S. foreign assistance programs, international debt relief, and refugee policy;  U.S. foreign assistance programs, international debt relief, and refugee policy;
 activities of non-state actors;  activities of non-state actors;
 the amount of U.S. attention devoted to ongoing international issues other than the pandemic; and  the amount of U.S. attention devoted to ongoing international issues other than the pandemic; and
 the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.  the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international security environment, Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international security environment,
whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change are appropriate and sufficient, and what whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change are appropriate and sufficient, and what
implications such change could have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and implications such change could have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and
defense policy. Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign and defense defense policy. Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign and defense
policy. policy.
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Introduction
Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potential y Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potential y
profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment. Other profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment. Other
observers are more skeptical that the pandemic wil have such effects. This report provides a brief observers are more skeptical that the pandemic wil have such effects. This report provides a brief
overview of some potential implications the pandemic might have for the international security overview of some potential implications the pandemic might have for the international security
environment, and appendices listing CRS reports and other writings for further reading. environment, and appendices listing CRS reports and other writings for further reading.
Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international
security environment, whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change security environment, whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change
are appropriate and sufficient, and what implications such change could have for the role of are appropriate and sufficient, and what implications such change could have for the role of
Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Congress’s Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Congress’s
decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign and defense decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign and defense
policy. policy.
Appendix A presents a list of CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of issues presents a list of CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of issues
presented in this reportpresented in this report. Appendix B presents a list of additional writings reflecting various presents a list of additional writings reflecting various
perspectives on these issues. perspectives on these issues.
Background
2021 Assessments by U.S. Intelligence Community
In reports issued in March and April 2021, the U.S. intel igence community provided assessments In reports issued in March and April 2021, the U.S. intel igence community provided assessments
of the potential impact of the pandemic on the international security environment. Excerpts from of the potential impact of the pandemic on the international security environment. Excerpts from
these two reports are presented below. these two reports are presented below.
March 2021 NIC Report on Global Trends
A March 2021 report of the National Intel igence Council (NIC)1 on global trends—the 2021 A March 2021 report of the National Intel igence Council (NIC)1 on global trends—the 2021
edition of a report that NIC publishes every four years to serve as an unclassified strategic edition of a report that NIC publishes every four years to serve as an unclassified strategic
assessment on key trends that might shape the world over the next 20 years—includes a section assessment on key trends that might shape the world over the next 20 years—includes a section
on the potential impact of the pandemic, which states on the potential impact of the pandemic, which states
The COVID-19 pandemic emerged globally in 2020, wreaking havoc across the world, The COVID-19 pandemic emerged globally in 2020, wreaking havoc across the world,
killing more than 2.5 million people as of early 2021, devastating families and killing more than 2.5 million people as of early 2021, devastating families and
communities, and disrupting economies and political dynamics within and between communities, and disrupting economies and political dynamics within and between
countries. Previous global trends editions forecasted the potential for new diseases and countries. Previous global trends editions forecasted the potential for new diseases and
even imagined scenarios with a pandemic, but we lacked a full picture of the breadth and even imagined scenarios with a pandemic, but we lacked a full picture of the breadth and
depth of its disruptive potential. COVID-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about depth of its disruptive potential. COVID-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about
resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance, resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance,
geopolitics, and technology. geopolitics, and technology.

1 T he Office of the Director of National Intelligence states that the National Intelligence Council “supports the Director 1 T he Office of the Director of National Intelligence states that the National Intelligence Council “supports the Director
of National Intelligence [DNI] in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC’s center for long-of National Intelligence [DNI] in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC’s center for long-
term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and
policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence
Community Community ~~collaborat ion~~collaboration and outreach. T he NIC’s National Intelligence Officers—drawn from government, academia, and outreach. T he NIC’s National Intelligence Officers—drawn from government, academia,
and the private sector—are the Intelligence Community’s senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.” and the private sector—are the Intelligence Community’s senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.”
(Director of National Intelligence, “ National Intelligence Council—Who We Are,” accessed July 9, 2021, at (Director of National Intelligence, “ National Intelligence Council—Who We Are,” accessed July 9, 2021, at
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=393&Itemid=778 .) https://www.dni.gov/index.php/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=393&Itemid=778 .)
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

To understand and assess the impact of this crisis, we examined and debated a broad range To understand and assess the impact of this crisis, we examined and debated a broad range
of our assumptions and assessments related to key global trends. We asked a series of of our assumptions and assessments related to key global trends. We asked a series of
questions: Which existing trends will endure, which trends are accelerating or decelerating questions: Which existing trends will endure, which trends are accelerating or decelerating
because of the pandemic, and where are we likely to experience fundamental, systemic because of the pandemic, and where are we likely to experience fundamental, systemic
shifts? Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape shifts? Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape
the future? Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the COVID-19 pandemic the future? Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the COVID-19 pandemic
is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years to come and change the way is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years to come and change the way
we live, work, and govern domestically and internationally. How great these will be, we live, work, and govern domestically and internationally. How great these will be,
however, is very much in question. however, is very much in question.
ACCELERATING, SHARPENING SOME TRENDS ACCELERATING, SHARPENING SOME TRENDS
The pandemic and corresponding national responses appear to be honing and accelerating The pandemic and corresponding national responses appear to be honing and accelerating
several trends that were already underway before the outbreak. COVID-19 brought global several trends that were already underway before the outbreak. COVID-19 brought global
health and healthcare issues into sharp relief, exposed and in some cases widened social health and healthcare issues into sharp relief, exposed and in some cases widened social
fissures, underscored vast disparities in healthcare access and infrastructure, and fissures, underscored vast disparities in healthcare access and infrastructure, and
interrupted efforts to combat other diseases. The pandemic also highlighted weaknesses in interrupted efforts to combat other diseases. The pandemic also highlighted weaknesses in
the international coordination on health crises and the mismatch between existing the international coordination on health crises and the mismatch between existing
institutions, funding levels, and future health challenges. institutions, funding levels, and future health challenges.
Catalyzing Economic Trends. Lockdowns, quarantines, and the closing of international . Lockdowns, quarantines, and the closing of international
borders have catalyzed some pre-existing economic trends, including diversification in borders have catalyzed some pre-existing economic trends, including diversification in
global supply chains, increased national debt, and greater government intervention in global supply chains, increased national debt, and greater government intervention in
economies. Moving forward, the character of globalization may retain some of the changes economies. Moving forward, the character of globalization may retain some of the changes
from this crisis period, and debt, particularly for developing economies, will strain national from this crisis period, and debt, particularly for developing economies, will strain national
capacities for many years. capacities for many years.
Reinforcing Nationalism and Polarization. Nationalism and polarization have been on Nationalism and polarization have been on
the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and
manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward
to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups. The response to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups. The response
to the pandemic has fueled partisanship and polarization in many countries as groups argue to the pandemic has fueled partisanship and polarization in many countries as groups argue
over the best way to respond and seek scapegoats to blame for spreading the virus and for over the best way to respond and seek scapegoats to blame for spreading the virus and for
slow responses. slow responses.
Deepening Inequality. The disproportionate economic impact of COVID-19 on low- The disproportionate economic impact of COVID-19 on low-
income earners has caused them to fall further behind. When COVID-19 is finally income earners has caused them to fall further behind. When COVID-19 is finally
controlled, many families are likely to have experienced further setbacks, especially those controlled, many families are likely to have experienced further setbacks, especially those
working in the service or informal sectors or who left the workforce to provide dependent working in the service or informal sectors or who left the workforce to provide dependent
care—predominantly women. The pandemic has exposed the digital divide within and care—predominantly women. The pandemic has exposed the digital divide within and
between countries while spurring efforts to improve Internet access. between countries while spurring efforts to improve Internet access.
Straining Governance. The pandemic is straining government capacity for services and The pandemic is straining government capacity for services and
contributing to already low levels of trust in institutions in countries that have not contributing to already low levels of trust in institutions in countries that have not
effectively handled the response. The pandemic is exacerbating the confusing and effectively handled the response. The pandemic is exacerbating the confusing and
polarized information environment that is undermining public confidence in health polarized information environment that is undermining public confidence in health
authorities, particularly in open societies. Illiberal regimes in some countries are using the authorities, particularly in open societies. Illiberal regimes in some countries are using the
pandemic as a pretext to more severely crack down on dissent and restrict civic freedoms, pandemic as a pretext to more severely crack down on dissent and restrict civic freedoms,
conditions that may outlive the disease. conditions that may outlive the disease.
Highlighting Failed International Cooperation. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the
weaknesses and political cleavages in international institutions, such as the World Health weaknesses and political cleavages in international institutions, such as the World Health
Organization (WHO) and United Nations, and called into question countries’ ability and Organization (WHO) and United Nations, and called into question countries’ ability and
willingness to cooperate multilaterally to address common challenges beyond infectious willingness to cooperate multilaterally to address common challenges beyond infectious
disease, particularly climate change. The WHO, which has faced significant funding disease, particularly climate change. The WHO, which has faced significant funding
difficulties and resistance to mandatory surveillance regimes, is facing its gravest shock in difficulties and resistance to mandatory surveillance regimes, is facing its gravest shock in
nearly two decades. The crisis, however, may ultimately lead actors to make deeper nearly two decades. The crisis, however, may ultimately lead actors to make deeper
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COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

reforms, standardize data collection and sharing, and forge new public -private reforms, standardize data collection and sharing, and forge new public -private
partnerships. partnerships.
Elevating the Role of Nonstate Actors. Nonstate actors, ranging from the Gates Nonstate actors, ranging from the Gates
Foundation to private companies, have been crucial to vaccine research or retrofitting Foundation to private companies, have been crucial to vaccine research or retrofitting
equipment to mass produce medical supplies and personal protective equipment. Nonstate equipment to mass produce medical supplies and personal protective equipment. Nonstate
networks will complement national and intergovernmental action in future health crises, networks will complement national and intergovernmental action in future health crises,
including early warning, treatment, facilitation of data-sharing, and vaccine development. including early warning, treatment, facilitation of data-sharing, and vaccine development.
WHILE OTHERS DECELERATE OR REVERSE WHILE OTHERS DECELERATE OR REVERSE
COVID-19 is slowing and possibly reversing some longstanding trends in human COVID-19 is slowing and possibly reversing some longstanding trends in human
development, especially the reduction of poverty and disease and closing gender inequality development, especially the reduction of poverty and disease and closing gender inequality
gaps. The longest lasting reversals may be in poverty reduction across Africa, Latin gaps. The longest lasting reversals may be in poverty reduction across Africa, Latin
America, and South Asia, followed by losses in gender equality. The resources devoted to America, and South Asia, followed by losses in gender equality. The resources devoted to
fighting COVID-19 and social restrictions could reverse years of progress against malaria, fighting COVID-19 and social restrictions could reverse years of progress against malaria,
measles, polio, and other infectious diseases by consuming key financial, material, and measles, polio, and other infectious diseases by consuming key financial, material, and
personnel resources. personnel resources.
The COVID-19 emergency may bring regions together in ways that previous crises have The COVID-19 emergency may bring regions together in ways that previous crises have
not. not.
Although European countries early in the crisis imposed restrictions on border traffic and Although European countries early in the crisis imposed restrictions on border traffic and
exports of critical medical supplies, the European Union has rallied around an economic exports of critical medical supplies, the European Union has rallied around an economic
rescue package and other emergency measures that could bolster the Euro pean integration rescue package and other emergency measures that could bolster the Euro pean integration
project going forward. COVID-19 could also lead to redirection of national budgets toward project going forward. COVID-19 could also lead to redirection of national budgets toward
pandemic response and economic recovery, diverting funds from defense expenditures, pandemic response and economic recovery, diverting funds from defense expenditures,
foreign aid, and infrastructure programs in some countries, at least in the near term. foreign aid, and infrastructure programs in some countries, at least in the near term.
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
The unanticipated second- and third-order effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have The unanticipated second- and third-order effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have
reminded us how uncertain the future is —both in the long and short term. As researchers reminded us how uncertain the future is —both in the long and short term. As researchers
and analysts, we must be ever vigilant, asking better questions, frequently challenging our and analysts, we must be ever vigilant, asking better questions, frequently challenging our
assumptions, checking our biases, and looking for weak signals of change. We need to assumptions, checking our biases, and looking for weak signals of change. We need to
expect the unexpected and apply the lessons of this pandemic to our craft in the future.2 expect the unexpected and apply the lessons of this pandemic to our craft in the future.2
April 2021 DNI Threat Assessment
An April 9, 2021, report from the Director of National Intel igence (DNI)—DNI’s annual threat An April 9, 2021, report from the Director of National Intel igence (DNI)—DNI’s annual threat
assessment for 2021—includes a section on the pandemic that states (emphasis as in the original): assessment for 2021—includes a section on the pandemic that states (emphasis as in the original):
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted life worldwide, with far-reaching effects that
extend well beyond global health to the economic, political, and security spheres. We
expect COVID-19 to remain a threat to populations worldwide until vaccines and
therapeutics are widely distributed. The economic and political implications of the
pandemic will ripple through the world for years.
The pandemic is raising geopolitical tensions, and great powers are jockeying for
advantage and influence. States are struggling to cooperate—and in some cases are States are struggling to cooperate—and in some cases are
undermining cooperation—to respond to the pandemic and its economic fallout, undermining cooperation—to respond to the pandemic and its economic fallout,
particularly as some governments turn inward and question the merits of globalization and particularly as some governments turn inward and question the merits of globalization and
interdependence. Some governments, such as China and Russia, are using offers of medical interdependence. Some governments, such as China and Russia, are using offers of medical
supplies and vaccines to try to boost their geopolitical standing. supplies and vaccines to try to boost their geopolitical standing.
The economic fallout from the pandemic is likely to create or worsen instability in at
least a few—and perhaps many—countries, as people grow more desperate in the face

2 National Intelligence Council, 2 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2040, A More Contested World, March 2021, pp. 11-13. , March 2021, pp. 11-13.
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of interlocking pressures that include sustained economic downturns, job losses, and
disrupted supply chains. Some hard-hit developing countries are experiencing financial Some hard-hit developing countries are experiencing financial
and humanitarian crises, increasing the risk of surges in migration, collapsed governments, and humanitarian crises, increasing the risk of surges in migration, collapsed governments,
or internal conflict. or internal conflict.
 Although global trade shows signs of bouncing back from the COVID-19-induced  Although global trade shows signs of bouncing back from the COVID-19-induced
slump, economists caution that any recovery this year could be disrupted by ongoing slump, economists caution that any recovery this year could be disrupted by ongoing
or expanding pandemic effects, keeping pressure on many governments to focus on or expanding pandemic effects, keeping pressure on many governments to focus on
internal economic stability. In April, the International Monetary Fund estimated that internal economic stability. In April, the International Monetary Fund estimated that
the global economy would grow 6 percent this year and 4.4 percent in 2022. This the global economy would grow 6 percent this year and 4.4 percent in 2022. This
year’s forecast is revised up 0.5 percentage points relative to the previous forecast, year’s forecast is revised up 0.5 percentage points relative to the previous forecast,
reflecting expectations of vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year reflecting expectations of vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year
and additional policy support in a few large economies. The global growth contraction and additional policy support in a few large economies. The global growth contraction
for 2020 is estimated at 3.3 percent. for 2020 is estimated at 3.3 percent.
 The resurgence in COVID-19 infections early this year may have an even greater  The resurgence in COVID-19 infections early this year may have an even greater
economic impact as struggling businesses in hard-hit sectors such as tourism and economic impact as struggling businesses in hard-hit sectors such as tourism and
restaurants fold and governments face increasing budget strains. restaurants fold and governments face increasing budget strains.
 The effects on developing countries—especially those that rely heavily on remittances,  The effects on developing countries—especially those that rely heavily on remittances,
tourism, or oil exports—may be severe and longer lasting; many developing countries tourism, or oil exports—may be severe and longer lasting; many developing countries
already have sought debt relief. already have sought debt relief.
 The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, along with conflict and weather  The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, along with conflict and weather
extremes, has driven food insecurity worldwide to its highest point in more than a extremes, has driven food insecurity worldwide to its highest point in more than a
decade, which increases the risk of instability. The number of people experiencing decade, which increases the risk of instability. The number of people experiencing
high levels of acute food insecurity doubled from 135 million in 2019 to about 270 high levels of acute food insecurity doubled from 135 million in 2019 to about 270
million last year, and is projected to rise to 330 million by yearend. million last year, and is projected to rise to 330 million by yearend.
The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting shifts in security priorities for countries around
the world. As militaries face growing calls to cut budgets, gaps are emerging in UN As militaries face growing calls to cut budgets, gaps are emerging in UN
peacekeeping operations; military training and preparedness; counterterrorism operations; peacekeeping operations; military training and preparedness; counterterrorism operations;
and arms control monitoring, verification, and compliance. These gaps are likely to grow and arms control monitoring, verification, and compliance. These gaps are likely to grow
without a quick end to the pandemic and a rapid recovery, making managing conflict more without a quick end to the pandemic and a rapid recovery, making managing conflict more
difficult—particularly because the pandemic has not caused any diminution in th e number difficult—particularly because the pandemic has not caused any diminution in th e number
or intensity of conflicts. or intensity of conflicts.
COVID-19-related disruptions to essential health services—such as vaccinations, aid
delivery, and maternal and child health programs—will increase the likelihood of
additional health emergencies, especially among vulnerable populations in low-income
countries. As examples, the pandemic has disrupted HIV/AIDS treatments and As examples, the pandemic has disrupted HIV/AIDS treatments and
preventative measures in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as measles and polio vaccination preventative measures in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as measles and polio vaccination
campaigns in dozens of countries. World populations, including Americans, will remain campaigns in dozens of countries. World populations, including Americans, will remain
vulnerable to new outbreaks of infectious diseases as risk factors persist, such as rapid and vulnerable to new outbreaks of infectious diseases as risk factors persist, such as rapid and
unplanned urbanization, protracted conflict and humanitarian crises, human incursions into unplanned urbanization, protracted conflict and humanitarian crises, human incursions into
previously unsettled land, expansion of international travel and trade, and public mistrust previously unsettled land, expansion of international travel and trade, and public mistrust
of government and health care workers.3 of government and health care workers.3
Overview of Areas of Potential Implications
Areas of potential change reflected in writings from observers who view the pandemic as a Areas of potential change reflected in writings from observers who view the pandemic as a
potential y world-changing event include but are not limited to those discussed below. Although potential y world-changing event include but are not limited to those discussed below. Although
these areas of potential change are presented separately, they overlap in some cases and can these areas of potential change are presented separately, they overlap in some cases and can
interact with one another. interact with one another.

3 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 3 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, April 9, , April 9,
2021, pp. 17-18. 2021, pp. 17-18.
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World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance
Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could cause or accelerate Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could cause or accelerate
changes to the U.S.-led liberal international order that has operated since World War II, to the changes to the U.S.-led liberal international order that has operated since World War II, to the
international institutions and norms that contribute to it, and consequently to global governance.4 international institutions and norms that contribute to it, and consequently to global governance.4
Changes to the international order and its supporting institutions and norms could affect the Changes to the international order and its supporting institutions and norms could affect the
international context for addressing not only the pandemic, but other international issues as wel . international context for addressing not only the pandemic, but other international issues as wel .
U.S. Global Leadership and Role in the World
The pandemic could influence discussions over the costs and benefits to the United States of The pandemic could influence discussions over the costs and benefits to the United States of
acting as a global leader, not only with respect to global health but across a range of issues. acting as a global leader, not only with respect to global health but across a range of issues.
In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on how the pandemic may have In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on how the pandemic may have
il ustrated the strengths or weaknesses of the Trump Administration’s “America First” approach il ustrated the strengths or weaknesses of the Trump Administration’s “America First” approach
to the U.S. role in the world. Some observers argued that the pandemic demonstrated that the to the U.S. role in the world. Some observers argued that the pandemic demonstrated that the
United States was maintaining or reasserting its role as global leader, while others argued that the United States was maintaining or reasserting its role as global leader, while others argued that the
pandemic demonstrated that the United States was choosing to withdraw from or was no longer pandemic demonstrated that the United States was choosing to withdraw from or was no longer
capable of performing that role, and that the pandemic was the first major international crisis capable of performing that role, and that the pandemic was the first major international crisis
since World War II for which the United States did not serve as the leader for spearheading, since World War II for which the United States did not serve as the leader for spearheading,
organizing, or implementing an international response. organizing, or implementing an international response.
Other observers have argued that the U.S. response to the pandemic has focused international Other observers have argued that the U.S. response to the pandemic has focused international
attention on what they view as a need for reform at the World Health Organization (WHO), attention on what they view as a need for reform at the World Health Organization (WHO),
demonstrated the strength and innovativeness of the U.S. scientific and pharmaceutical demonstrated the strength and innovativeness of the U.S. scientific and pharmaceutical
establishments in terms of developing and manufacturing vaccines, and demonstrated the establishments in terms of developing and manufacturing vaccines, and demonstrated the
flexibility and resiliency of the U.S. federal system in terms of permitting states and localities to flexibility and resiliency of the U.S. federal system in terms of permitting states and localities to
respond to the pandemic in ways that are tailored to local conditions. respond to the pandemic in ways that are tailored to local conditions.
Prior to the start of large-scale vaccinations in the United States, some observers, including some Prior to the start of large-scale vaccinations in the United States, some observers, including some
foreign observers, argued that the U.S. domestic response to the pandemic was demonstrating foreign observers, argued that the U.S. domestic response to the pandemic was demonstrating
weaknesses in U.S. democracy, governance, and public health, particularly in comparison to how weaknesses in U.S. democracy, governance, and public health, particularly in comparison to how
certain other countries responded during that period to the pandemic within their own borders, certain other countries responded during that period to the pandemic within their own borders,
and that this would reduce the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be and that this would reduce the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be
accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues or as a model for other accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues or as a model for other
countries to emulate. As vaccines have become more widely available in the United States, some countries to emulate. As vaccines have become more widely available in the United States, some
observers have argued that the United States should export large numbers of vaccine doses to observers have argued that the United States should export large numbers of vaccine doses to

4 T he term 4 T he term international order or or world order generally refers in foreign policy discussions to the collection of generally refers in foreign policy discussions to the collection of
organizations, institutions, treaties, rules, norms, and practices that are intended to organize, structure, and regulate organizations, institutions, treaties, rules, norms, and practices that are intended to organize, structure, and regulate
international relations during a given historical period. international relations during a given historical period.
Other terms used to refer to the U.S.-led liberal international order include Other terms used to refer to the U.S.-led liberal international order include postwar international order, , rules-based
international order, and , and open international order. Observers sometimes substitute . Observers sometimes substitute world for for international,, or omit or omit
international or or world and refer simply to the and refer simply to the liberal order, the , the U.S.-led order, and so on. In the terms , and so on. In the terms liberal
international order and and liberal order, the word , the word liberal does not refer to the conservative-liberal construct often used in does not refer to the conservative-liberal construct often used in
discussing contemporary politics in the United States or other countries. It is, instead, an older use of the term that discussing contemporary politics in the United States or other countries. It is, instead, an older use of the term that
refers to an order based on the rule of law, as opposed to an order based on the arbitrary powers of hereditary refers to an order based on the rule of law, as opposed to an order based on the arbitrary powers of hereditary
monarchs. monarchs.
T hough often referred to as if it is a fully developed or universally established situation, the liberal international order, T hough often referred to as if it is a fully developed or universally established situation, the liberal international order,
like other international orders that preceded it, is incomplete in geographic reach and in other ways; partly aspirational; like other international orders that preceded it, is incomplete in geographic reach and in other ways; partly aspirational;
not fixed in stone, but rather subject to evolution over time; sometimes violated by its supporters; not entirely free of not fixed in stone, but rather subject to evolution over time; sometimes violated by its supporters; not entirely free of
might -makes-right behavior; resisted or rejected by certain states and nonmight -makes-right behavior; resisted or rejected by certain states and non -state actors; and subject to various stresses -state actors; and subject to various stresses
and challenges. and challenges.
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other countries that need them so as to demonstrate U.S. global leadership and help protect U.S. other countries that need them so as to demonstrate U.S. global leadership and help protect U.S.
public health and the U.S. economy by helping to end the global pandemic more quickly. public health and the U.S. economy by helping to end the global pandemic more quickly.
China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader
Some observers have focused on how the pandemic may be providing insight into whether China Some observers have focused on how the pandemic may be providing insight into whether China
desires and is working to become a global leader on par with (or in the place of) the United desires and is working to become a global leader on par with (or in the place of) the United
States, to what degree China has a capacity for doing so, and how other countries might view States, to what degree China has a capacity for doing so, and how other countries might view
China acting in such a role. China’s transparency, particularly regarding its actions in the early China acting in such a role. China’s transparency, particularly regarding its actions in the early
days of its COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and trial data on the efficacy of its vaccines, as wel as days of its COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and trial data on the efficacy of its vaccines, as wel as
China’s actions to send vaccines, other medical supplies, and medical personnel to other China’s actions to send vaccines, other medical supplies, and medical personnel to other
countries, perhaps for political or diplomatic purposes, have become elements of a broader countries, perhaps for political or diplomatic purposes, have become elements of a broader
ongoing discussion regarding China’s capacity or suitability for acting as a global leader. ongoing discussion regarding China’s capacity or suitability for acting as a global leader.
U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China and Russia
Some observers have focused on how the pandemic has become a significant element in U.S- Some observers have focused on how the pandemic has become a significant element in U.S-
China relations, and in U.S. great power competition with China and Russia. For some observers, China relations, and in U.S. great power competition with China and Russia. For some observers,
the pandemic presents an opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation on an important international the pandemic presents an opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation on an important international
issue of common interest. For other observers, the pandemic is a major source of dispute and an issue of common interest. For other observers, the pandemic is a major source of dispute and an
arena of competition between the two countries, and is contributing to a hardening of U.S.-China arena of competition between the two countries, and is contributing to a hardening of U.S.-China
relations into a Cold War-like adversarial situation. relations into a Cold War-like adversarial situation.
In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on what they viewed as a In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on what they viewed as a
competition or race between the United States, China, Russia, and other countries to develop, competition or race between the United States, China, Russia, and other countries to develop,
manufacture, and administer effective vaccines, and thus be able to restore their economies to full manufacture, and administer effective vaccines, and thus be able to restore their economies to full
operation sooner than other countries. Some observers have focused on whether China and Russia operation sooner than other countries. Some observers have focused on whether China and Russia
are attempting to use exports of their vaccines as levers to gain advantages in their relations with are attempting to use exports of their vaccines as levers to gain advantages in their relations with
recipient countries. The terms recipient countries. The terms vaccine nationalism and and vaccine diplomacy are being used by some are being used by some
of these observers to refer to such perceived activities. Some observers have expressed concern of these observers to refer to such perceived activities. Some observers have expressed concern
that decisions by countries to pursue vaccine development and deployment in a competitive, that decisions by countries to pursue vaccine development and deployment in a competitive,
individual manner rather than a cooperative, multilateral manner could reduce the overal individual manner rather than a cooperative, multilateral manner could reduce the overal
effectiveness of efforts to develop, manufacture, and administer effective vaccines and thereby effectiveness of efforts to develop, manufacture, and administer effective vaccines and thereby
prolong the global pandemic. prolong the global pandemic.
Some observers have focused on the pandemic as a factor in the discussion of whether the United Some observers have focused on the pandemic as a factor in the discussion of whether the United
States should decouple its economy from China’s and reduce its dependence on China for key States should decouple its economy from China’s and reduce its dependence on China for key
materials and products, including hospital supplies and pharmaceuticals. Some observers have materials and products, including hospital supplies and pharmaceuticals. Some observers have
focused on whether the U.S. and Chinese responses to the pandemic wil affect views around the focused on whether the U.S. and Chinese responses to the pandemic wil affect views around the
world regarding the relative merits of the U.S. and Chinese forms of government and economic world regarding the relative merits of the U.S. and Chinese forms of government and economic
models as potential examples to emulate. models as potential examples to emulate.
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy
Related to the point above about forms of government, some observers have focused on the Related to the point above about forms of government, some observers have focused on the
potential impact of the pandemic on discussions in various countries regarding the merits of potential impact of the pandemic on discussions in various countries regarding the merits of
democracy compared to those of other forms of government. Some observers have focused on democracy compared to those of other forms of government. Some observers have focused on
whether the pandemic is providing national leaders with an opportunity or rationale for taking whether the pandemic is providing national leaders with an opportunity or rationale for taking
actions to seize greater power and move their countries away from democracy and toward actions to seize greater power and move their countries away from democracy and toward
authoritarianism or autocracy, or strengthen or consolidate their already-existing authoritarian or authoritarianism or autocracy, or strengthen or consolidate their already-existing authoritarian or
autocratic forms of government. autocratic forms of government.
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Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and Governmental Stability
Beyond the specific point above about potential movement toward greater authoritarianism and Beyond the specific point above about potential movement toward greater authoritarianism and
autocracy, some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic more general y could autocracy, some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic more general y could
cause increased social tensions in certain countries, could lead to (or present opportunities for) cause increased social tensions in certain countries, could lead to (or present opportunities for)
societal reforms and transformations, and could destabilize and perhaps cause the downfal of societal reforms and transformations, and could destabilize and perhaps cause the downfal of
governments, akin to the effects of certain past world-changing events, such as World War I.5 governments, akin to the effects of certain past world-changing events, such as World War I.5
Such changes could alter the political orientations, national strategies, foreign policies, and Such changes could alter the political orientations, national strategies, foreign policies, and
defense policies of the countries in which they occur, potential y inducing follow-on effects defense policies of the countries in which they occur, potential y inducing follow-on effects
among governments and other global actors that interact with those countries. among governments and other global actors that interact with those countries.
World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy
Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could lead to significant and Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could lead to significant and
potential y long-lasting changes to the world economy that in turn could reshape the international potential y long-lasting changes to the world economy that in turn could reshape the international
security environment. Noting that the pandemic reduced world trade volumes and disrupted and security environment. Noting that the pandemic reduced world trade volumes and disrupted and
altered global supply chains, they have focused on the question of whether economic altered global supply chains, they have focused on the question of whether economic
globalization wil as a result be slowed, halted, or reversed. Observers are monitoring globalization wil as a result be slowed, halted, or reversed. Observers are monitoring or discussing how such how such
effects could influence or be influenced by U.S. trade policy. effects could influence or be influenced by U.S. trade policy.
Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances
Some observers have focused on the possibility that costs incurred by U.S. al ies—particularly Some observers have focused on the possibility that costs incurred by U.S. al ies—particularly
NATO al ies in Europe—to support their economies during stay-at-home/lockdown periods could NATO al ies in Europe—to support their economies during stay-at-home/lockdown periods could
lead to offsetting reductions in their defense expenditures. More general y, some observers have lead to offsetting reductions in their defense expenditures. More general y, some observers have
asked whether reductions in economic growth caused by the pandemic could lead to reductions in asked whether reductions in economic growth caused by the pandemic could lead to reductions in
the defense budgets of U.S. al ies in both Europe and Asia. the defense budgets of U.S. al ies in both Europe and Asia.
European Union
In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on the question of whether the In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on the question of whether the
pandemic was creating tensions—or, conversely, opportunities for greater coordination—among pandemic was creating tensions—or, conversely, opportunities for greater coordination—among
the European Union member states, and what impact the pandemic might ultimately have on the the European Union member states, and what impact the pandemic might ultimately have on the
cohesion of the European Union. cohesion of the European Union.
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic wil (or should) lead to a Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic wil (or should) lead to a
revised definition of U.S. national security, particularly one that is less military-centric and more revised definition of U.S. national security, particularly one that is less military-centric and more
focused on what are sometimes cal ed human-security-oriented chal enges or global issues, such focused on what are sometimes cal ed human-security-oriented chal enges or global issues, such
as climate change, that have sometimes been more at the periphery of U.S. national security as climate change, that have sometimes been more at the periphery of U.S. national security

5 For brief discussions of the impacts of World War I on societies and governments, see, for example, Robert Wilde, 5 For brief discussions of the impacts of World War I on societies and governments, see, for example, Robert Wilde,
“T he Consequences of World War I, Political and Social Effects of the War to End All Wars,” “T he Consequences of World War I, Political and Social Effects of the War to End All Wars,” ThoughtCo., July 10, , July 10,
2019; John Horne, “ T he First World War: the Aftermath, T he Years Following the End of the War Were Marked by 2019; John Horne, “ T he First World War: the Aftermath, T he Years Following the End of the War Were Marked by
More Wars, Political Upheaval and Deep Social Change,” More Wars, Political Upheaval and Deep Social Change,” Irish Times, April 24, 2018; Steven Mintz, “ Historical , April 24, 2018; Steven Mintz, “ Historical
Context: T he Global Effect of World War I,” Context: T he Global Effect of World War I,” History Now (Gilder Lehrm an Institute of Am erican History) , undated, , undated,
accessed April 16, 2020; Margaret MacMillan, “ World War I: T he War T hat Changed Everything,” accessed April 16, 2020; Margaret MacMillan, “ World War I: T he War T hat Changed Everything,” Wall Street
Journal, June 20, 2014; Steven Erlanger, “ T he War to End All Wars? Hardly. But It Did Change T hem Forever. ” , June 20, 2014; Steven Erlanger, “ T he War to End All Wars? Hardly. But It Did Change T hem Forever. ” New
York Tim es, June 26, 2014; Jay Winter, “ How the Great War Shaped the World,” , June 26, 2014; Jay Winter, “ How the Great War Shaped the World,” Atlantic, World War I issue , World War I issue
(September 29, 2014); Kathleen Haley, “ 100 Years after WWI: T he Lasting Impacts of the Great War(September 29, 2014); Kathleen Haley, “ 100 Years after WWI: T he Lasting Impacts of the Great War ,” ,” Media, Law &
Policy (Syracuse University), July 28, 2014; “ Aftermath of World War I,” Wikipedia, updated April 11, 2020, accessed , July 28, 2014; “ Aftermath of World War I,” Wikipedia, updated April 11, 2020, accessed
April 16, 2020. April 16, 2020.
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policy and plans. Such a change in definition could lead to a changed al ocation of funding policy and plans. Such a change in definition could lead to a changed al ocation of funding
between the Department of Defense (DOD) and other government agencies that perform national-between the Department of Defense (DOD) and other government agencies that perform national-
security-related tasks, a realignment of resources within DOD between combat-oriented programs security-related tasks, a realignment of resources within DOD between combat-oriented programs
and other programs (such as those related to DOD’s mission of providing defense support of civil and other programs (such as those related to DOD’s mission of providing defense support of civil
authorities), and perhaps a changed al ocation of funding among the agencies other than DOD authorities), and perhaps a changed al ocation of funding among the agencies other than DOD
that perform national-security-related tasks. that perform national-security-related tasks.
U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations
Some observers have focused on the question of whether large federal expenditures made in Some observers have focused on the question of whether large federal expenditures made in
response to the domestic U.S. economic effects of the pandemic, and the impact of these response to the domestic U.S. economic effects of the pandemic, and the impact of these
expenditures on the federal budget deficit and federal debt, could lead to greater constraints in expenditures on the federal budget deficit and federal debt, could lead to greater constraints in
coming years on U.S. defense spending levels. As a follow-on matter, these observers are coming years on U.S. defense spending levels. As a follow-on matter, these observers are
additional y focusing on the question of whether responding to such increased constraints wil (or additional y focusing on the question of whether responding to such increased constraints wil (or
should) lead to revisions in U.S. defense strategy, changes in U.S. defense programs, and a should) lead to revisions in U.S. defense strategy, changes in U.S. defense programs, and a
reduction or termination of certain overseas U.S. military operations. reduction or termination of certain overseas U.S. military operations.
U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee Policy
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic is providing a new lens Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic is providing a new lens
through which to measure the value of U.S. foreign assistance, international debt relief, and through which to measure the value of U.S. foreign assistance, international debt relief, and
refugee policy in promoting U.S. interests, particularly in connection with the previously refugee policy in promoting U.S. interests, particularly in connection with the previously
mentioned issue of whether to revise the definition of U.S. national security to make it less mentioned issue of whether to revise the definition of U.S. national security to make it less
military-centric. military-centric.
Non-state Actors
Some observers have focused on how non-state actors such as international terrorist and criminal Some observers have focused on how non-state actors such as international terrorist and criminal
organizations are reacting to the pandemic, and on how much priority should be given to organizations are reacting to the pandemic, and on how much priority should be given to
countering such actors in the future, particularly in a context of a changed definition of U.S. countering such actors in the future, particularly in a context of a changed definition of U.S.
national security. national security.
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than the Pandemic
Some observers have focused on whether responding to the pandemic is affecting the time and Some observers have focused on whether responding to the pandemic is affecting the time and
resources that U.S. leaders and agencies can devote to addressing other international issues of resources that U.S. leaders and agencies can devote to addressing other international issues of
concern to the United States that predate but continue to exist in paral el with the pandemic. In concern to the United States that predate but continue to exist in paral el with the pandemic. In
the earlier months of the pandemic, U.S. officials warned other countries to not take actions the earlier months of the pandemic, U.S. officials warned other countries to not take actions
during the pandemic to chal enge U.S. interests around the world or otherwise test U.S. resolve or during the pandemic to chal enge U.S. interests around the world or otherwise test U.S. resolve or
responsiveness on the thinking that the pandemic was distracting the U.S. government from other responsiveness on the thinking that the pandemic was distracting the U.S. government from other
concerns or reducing U.S. capacity for responding to any such chal enges. concerns or reducing U.S. capacity for responding to any such chal enges.
Role of Congress
In the earlier months of the pandemic, a few observers focused on the issue of how the pandemic In the earlier months of the pandemic, a few observers focused on the issue of how the pandemic
had affected Congress’s activities for conducting oversight of the Administration’s foreign policy had affected Congress’s activities for conducting oversight of the Administration’s foreign policy
actions. actions.
Appendices with CRS Reports and Additional Writings
For further reading on the topics outlined above, see the CRS reports presented i For further reading on the topics outlined above, see the CRS reports presented in Appendix A
and the additional writings presented i and the additional writings presented in Appendix B.
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Potential Issues for Congress
Potential issues for Congress regarding implications of the pandemic for the international security Potential issues for Congress regarding implications of the pandemic for the international security
environment and the U.S. role in the world include but are not limited to the following: environment and the U.S. role in the world include but are not limited to the following:
 Will the pandemic change the international security environment, and if so, in  Will the pandemic change the international security environment, and if so, in
what ways? How clearly can potential changes be anticipated? what ways? How clearly can potential changes be anticipated?
 How should the United States respond to potential changes in the international  How should the United States respond to potential changes in the international
security environment arising from the pandemic and its effects, particularly in security environment arising from the pandemic and its effects, particularly in
light of uncertainty regarding the precise nature and likelihood light of uncertainty regarding the precise nature and likelihood of these changes? of these changes?
How might U.S. action or inaction influence or accelerate these changes? How might U.S. action or inaction influence or accelerate these changes?
 What does the pandemic demonstrate about the role of the United States as a  What does the pandemic demonstrate about the role of the United States as a
global leader? What impact, if any, wil the U.S. domestic response to the global leader? What impact, if any, wil the U.S. domestic response to the
pandemic have on the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be pandemic have on the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be
accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues, or to accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues, or to
serve as a model for other countries to emulate in terms of their own political serve as a model for other countries to emulate in terms of their own political
systems, governance, and economic models? systems, governance, and economic models?
 What actions is the Administration developing to respond to potential changes in  What actions is the Administration developing to respond to potential changes in
the international security environment arising from the pandemic? Does the international security environment arising from the pandemic? Does
Congress have sufficient visibility into these actions? Are these actions Congress have sufficient visibility into these actions? Are these actions
appropriate and sufficient? What metrics should Congress use to assess them? appropriate and sufficient? What metrics should Congress use to assess them?
 What implications do potential changes in the international security environment  What implications do potential changes in the international security environment
arising from the pandemic have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing arising from the pandemic have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing
the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy? Is Congress appropriately the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy? Is Congress appropriately
organized for maintaining Congress as a co-equal branch of government relative organized for maintaining Congress as a co-equal branch of government relative
to the executive branch in addressing these potential changes? If the pandemic to the executive branch in addressing these potential changes? If the pandemic
becomes a world-changing event for the international security environment and becomes a world-changing event for the international security environment and
the U.S. role in the world, what implications, if any, might that have for the U.S. role in the world, what implications, if any, might that have for
congressional organization and operations? congressional organization and operations?
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Appendix A. Related CRS Reports
CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of specific issues discussed in this report CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of specific issues discussed in this report
include the following, which are presented in alphabetical order of their titles:6 include the following, which are presented in alphabetical order of their titles:6
 CRS Insight IN11198,  CRS Insight IN11198, Bolivia Postpones May Elections Amidst COVID-19
Outbreak, by Clare Ribando Seelke. , by Clare Ribando Seelke.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10525,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10525, Can the United States Sue China over COVID-19
in an International Court?, by Stephen P. Mulligan. , by Stephen P. Mulligan.
 CRS In Focus IF11532,  CRS In Focus IF11532, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Impact in
Africa, coordinated by Alexis Arieff. , coordinated by Alexis Arieff.
 CRS Report R46209,  CRS Report R46209, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: CRS
Experts, by Matthew B. Barry. (Includes a section listing CRS experts on , by Matthew B. Barry. (Includes a section listing CRS experts on
international response activities relating to the COVD-19 pandemic.) international response activities relating to the COVD-19 pandemic.)
 CRS Report R46354,  CRS Report R46354, COVID-19 and China: A Chronology of Events (December
2019-January 2020), by Susan V. Lawrence. , by Susan V. Lawrence.
 CRS Insight IN11496,  CRS Insight IN11496, COVID-19 and Emerging Global Patterns of Financial
Crime, by Liana W. Rosen. , by Liana W. Rosen.
 CRS In Focus IF11606,  CRS In Focus IF11606, COVID-19 and Foreign Assistance: Congressional
Oversight Framework and Current Activities, by Nick M. Brown and Emily M. , by Nick M. Brown and Emily M.
Morgenstern. Morgenstern.
 CRS In Focus IF11496,  CRS In Focus IF11496, COVID-19 and Foreign Assistance: Issues for Congress, ,
by Nick M. Brown, Marian L. Lawson, and Emily M. Morgenstern. by Nick M. Brown, Marian L. Lawson, and Emily M. Morgenstern.
 CRS In Focus IF11575,  CRS In Focus IF11575, COVID-19 and Global Food Security: Issues for
Congress, by Alyssa R. Casey and Emily M. Morgenstern. , by Alyssa R. Casey and Emily M. Morgenstern.
 CRS Insight IN11288,  CRS Insight IN11288, COVID-19 and the Defense Industrial Base: DOD
Response and Legislative Considerations, by Heidi M. Peters. , by Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11279,  CRS Insight IN11279, COVID-19 and U.S. Iran Policy, by Kenneth Katzman. , by Kenneth Katzman.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10424,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10424, COVID-19: An Overview of Trade-Related
Measures to Address Access to Medical Goods, by Nina M. Hart. , by Nina M. Hart.
 CRS Report R46633,  CRS Report R46633, COVID-19 Vaccines: Global Health Issues, coordinated by , coordinated by
Sara M. Tharakan Sara M. Tharakan
 CRS Report R46304,  CRS Report R46304, COVID-19: China Medical Supply Chains and Broader
Trade Issues, coordinated by Karen M. Sutter. , coordinated by Karen M. Sutter.
 CRS Insight IN11387,  CRS Insight IN11387, COVID-19: Defense Production Act (DPA) Developments
and Issues for Congress, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11305,  CRS Insight IN11305, COVID-19: Defense Support of Civil Authorities, by , by
Lawrence Kapp and Alan Ott. Lawrence Kapp and Alan Ott.
 CRS In Focus IF11421,  CRS In Focus IF11421, COVID-19: Global Implications and Responses, by Sara , by Sara
M. Tharakan et al. M. Tharakan et al.

6 Additional CRS reports that do not include COVID-19 in their titles and are not listed here may include discussions of 6 Additional CRS reports that do not include COVID-19 in their titles and are not listed here may include discussions of
the international implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. the international implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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 CRS Insight IN11280,  CRS Insight IN11280, COVID-19: Industrial Mobilization and Defense
Production Act (DPA) Implementation, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11481,  CRS Insight IN11481, COVID-19 International Responses: Resources for
Comparison with U.S. Policies, by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan. , by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Insight IN11583,  CRS Insight IN11583, COVID-19 International Responses: Resources for the
117th Congress, by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan. , by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10436,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10436, COVID-19: International Trade and Access to
Pharmaceutical Products, by Nina M. Hart. , by Nina M. Hart.
 CRS In Focus IF11525,  CRS In Focus IF11525, COVID-19: National Security and Defense Strategy, by , by
Kathleen J. McInnis. Kathleen J. McInnis.
 CRS Video WVB00330,  CRS Video WVB00330, COVID-19 Public Health Series: Global Health and
Development, by Sara M. Tharakan et al. , by Sara M. Tharakan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11435,  CRS Insight IN11435, COVID-19-Related Suspension of Nonimmigrant Entry, ,
by Jil H. Wilson. by Jil H. Wilson.
 CRS Report R46342,  CRS Report R46342, COVID-19: Role of the International Financial
Institutions, by Rebecca M. Nelson and Martin A. Weiss. , by Rebecca M. Nelson and Martin A. Weiss.
 CRS Insight IN11273,  CRS Insight IN11273, COVID-19: The Basics of Domestic Defense Response, ,
coordinated by Michael J. Vassalotti. coordinated by Michael J. Vassalotti.
 CRS In Focus IF11434,  CRS In Focus IF11434, COVID-19: U.S.-China Economic Considerations, by , by
Karen M. Sutter and Michael D. Sutherland. Karen M. Sutter and Michael D. Sutherland.
 CRS Insight IN11470,  CRS Insight IN11470, Defense Production Act (DPA): Recent Developments in
Response to COVID-19, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS In Focus IF11635,  CRS In Focus IF11635, Europe, COVID-19, and U.S. Relations, by Kristin , by Kristin
Archick et al. Archick et al.
 CRS In Focus IF11551,  CRS In Focus IF11551, Export Restrictions in Response to the COVID-19
Pandemic, by Christopher A. Casey and Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs. , by Christopher A. Casey and Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10467,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10467, Foreign Sovereign Immunity and COVID-19
Lawsuits Against China, by Jennifer K. Elsea. , by Jennifer K. Elsea.
 CRS Insight IN11493,  CRS Insight IN11493, Global Economic Growth Forecasts: Impact of COVID-
19, by James K. Jackson. , by James K. Jackson.
 CRS Report R46430,  CRS Report R46430, Global Democracy and Human Rights Impacts of COVID-
19: In Brief, coordinated by Michael A. Weber. , coordinated by Michael A. Weber.
 CRS In Focus IF11548,  CRS In Focus IF11548, Helping U.S. Citizens Abroad During the COVID-19
Pandemic and Other International Crises: Role of the Department of State, by , by
Cory R. Gil . Cory R. Gil .
 CRS In Focus IF11796,  CRS In Focus IF11796, Global COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution, coordinated by , coordinated by
Sara M. Tharakan. Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Report R46270,  CRS Report R46270, Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, coordinated by , coordinated by
James K. Jackson. James K. Jackson.
 CRS Video WVB00380,  CRS Video WVB00380, Impact of COVID-19 on Health Systems in Africa: A
Dialogue with Experts, by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther. , by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS In Focus IF11537,  CRS In Focus IF11537, Intelligence Community Support to Pandemic
Preparedness and Response, by Michael E. DeVine. , by Michael E. DeVine.
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 CRS  CRS Insight IN11732, International COVID-19 Data and Vaccine Distribution: Selected Resources, by Hannah Fischer.  CRS In Focus IF11581, In Focus IF11581, Latin America and the Caribbean: Impact of COVID-19, ,
by Mark P. Sullivan et al. by Mark P. Sullivan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11535,  CRS Insight IN11535, Mexican Drug Trafficking and Cartel Operations amid
COVID-19, by June S. Beittel and Liana W. Rosen. , by June S. Beittel and Liana W. Rosen.
 CRS Insight IN11619,  CRS Insight IN11619, New COVID-19 Defense Production Act (DPA) Actions:
Implementation Considerations, by Michael H. Cecire, Nina M. Hart, and Heidi , by Michael H. Cecire, Nina M. Hart, and Heidi
M. Peters. M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11593,  CRS Insight IN11593, New Presidential Directives on the Defense Production
Act (DPA) and the COVID-19 Pandemic, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters. Peters.
 CRS Report R46319,  CRS Report R46319, Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): Q&A on Global
Implications and Responses, coordinated by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther. , coordinated by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS In Focus IF11822,  CRS In Focus IF11822, Origins of the COVID-19 Pandemic, coordinated by Tiaji , coordinated by Tiaji
Salaam-Blyther. Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS In Focus IF11480,  CRS In Focus IF11480, Overview: The Department of Defense and COVID-19, ,
coordinated by Kathleen J. McInnis. coordinated by Kathleen J. McInnis.
 CRS In Focus IF11858,  CRS In Focus IF11858, Potential WTO TRIPS Waiver and COVID-19, by , by
Shayerah I. Akhtar and Ian F. Fergusson. Shayerah I. Akhtar and Ian F. Fergusson.
 CRS Insight IN11662,  CRS Insight IN11662, Potential WTO TRIPS Waiver and COVID-19, by , by
Shayerah I. Akhtar and Ian F. Fergusson. Shayerah I. Akhtar and Ian F. Fergusson.
 CRS Insight IN11365,  CRS Insight IN11365, President Trump Criticizes VOA Coverage of China’s
COVID-19 Response, by Thomas Lum and Matthew C. Weed. , by Thomas Lum and Matthew C. Weed.
 CRS In Focus IF11880,  CRS In Focus IF11880, Sovereign Debt and the COVID-19 Pandemic, by Martin , by Martin
A. Weiss. A. Weiss.
 CRS Insight IN11231,  CRS Insight IN11231, The Defense Production Act (DPA) and COVID-19: Key
Authorities and Policy Considerations, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11337,  CRS Insight IN11337, The Defense Production Act (DPA) and the COVID-19
Pandemic: Recent Developments and Policy Considerations, by Michael H. , by Michael H.
Cecire and Heidi M. Peters. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS In Focus IF11029,  CRS In Focus IF11029, The Venezuela Regional Humanitarian Crisis and
COVID-19, by Rhoda Margesson and Clare Ribando Seelke. , by Rhoda Margesson and Clare Ribando Seelke.
 CRS Insight IN11369,  CRS Insight IN11369, U.S. Funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), ,
by Luisa Blanchfield and Tiaji Salaam-Blyther. by Luisa Blanchfield and Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS Insight IN11325,  CRS Insight IN11325, U.S. Travel and Tourism and COVID-19, by Michaela D. , by Michaela D.
Platzer. Platzer.
 CRS In Focus IF11494,  CRS In Focus IF11494, Wildlife Trade, COVID-19, and Other Zoonotic
Diseases, by Pervaze A. Sheikh and Katarina C. O'Regan. , by Pervaze A. Sheikh and Katarina C. O'Regan.
 CRS In Focus IF11513,  CRS In Focus IF11513, WTO: Ministerial Delay, COVID-19, and Ongoing
Issues, by Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs, Rachel F. Fefer, and Ian F. Fergusson. , by Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs, Rachel F. Fefer, and Ian F. Fergusson.
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Appendix B. Additional Writings
In presenting sources of additional reading, this appendix includes some examples of writings In presenting sources of additional reading, this appendix includes some examples of writings
reflecting various perspectives on the potential implications of the pandemic on the international reflecting various perspectives on the potential implications of the pandemic on the international
security environment and the U.S. role in the world, organized by specific themes or topics. security environment and the U.S. role in the world, organized by specific themes or topics.
Within each section, the items are presented in chronological order, with the most recent on top. Within each section, the items are presented in chronological order, with the most recent on top.
For most of the sections, additional citations with dates earlier than that of the last item listed in For most of the sections, additional citations with dates earlier than that of the last item listed in
the section can be found in previous versions of this CRS report. the section can be found in previous versions of this CRS report.
General/Multitopic
Michael Kugelman, “How COVID-19 Has Shaped South Asia, The Region Has Become a Michael Kugelman, “How COVID-19 Has Shaped South Asia, The Region Has Become a
Pandemic Hot Spot,” Pandemic Hot Spot,” Foreign Policy, July 15, 2021. y, July 15, 2021.
Anthony Faiola, “Pandemic-Driven Hunger Is Making the World More Unequal,” Anthony Faiola, “Pandemic-Driven Hunger Is Making the World More Unequal,” Washington
Post, July 12, 2021. , July 12, 2021.
Alex Ward, “The Pandemic’s Impact on Our World Is Only Just Beginning, The US Intel igence Alex Ward, “The Pandemic’s Impact on Our World Is Only Just Beginning, The US Intel igence
Community Says the Coronavirus Wil Impact You for Years to Come, Even If You Didn’t Get Community Says the Coronavirus Wil Impact You for Years to Come, Even If You Didn’t Get
Sick,” Sick,” Vox, April 14, 2021. , April 14, 2021.
Dimitris Valatsas and Patrycja Koszykowska, “COVID-19’s Baby Bust, Disasters Usual y Come Dimitris Valatsas and Patrycja Koszykowska, “COVID-19’s Baby Bust, Disasters Usual y Come
With Fal ing Birth Rates. But This Time, They Might Not Recover Unless Governments Take With Fal ing Birth Rates. But This Time, They Might Not Recover Unless Governments Take
Action Now,” Action Now,” Foreign Policy, April 9, 2021. , April 9, 2021.
Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Intel igence Report Warns of Global Consequences of Social Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Intel igence Report Warns of Global Consequences of Social
Fragmentation, The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Highlighted Weaknesses of the International Fragmentation, The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Highlighted Weaknesses of the International
Order, Said the Report, Which Is Issued Every Four Years,” Order, Said the Report, Which Is Issued Every Four Years,” New York Times, April 8, 2021. , April 8, 2021.
Warren P. Strobel and Dustin Volz, “Covid-19 Fuels Inequality, Political Warren P. Strobel and Dustin Volz, “Covid-19 Fuels Inequality, Political Divide, Authoritarianism Divide, Authoritarianism
World-Wide, U.S. Intel igence Analysts Say, Quadrennial Global Trends Report Also Warns World-Wide, U.S. Intel igence Analysts Say, Quadrennial Global Trends Report Also Warns
Privacy Wil ‘Effectively Disappear’ and Synthetic Media Wil ‘Distort Truth and Reality,’” Privacy Wil ‘Effectively Disappear’ and Synthetic Media Wil ‘Distort Truth and Reality,’” Wall
Street Journal, April 8, 2021. , April 8, 2021.
Laurie Goering, “African Leaders Warn COVID-19 Crisis Harming Climate Adaptation Push,” Laurie Goering, “African Leaders Warn COVID-19 Crisis Harming Climate Adaptation Push,”
Reuters, April 6, 2021. , April 6, 2021.
Meghan Benton, Jeanne Batalova, Samuel Davidoff-Gore, and Timo Schmidt, Meghan Benton, Jeanne Batalova, Samuel Davidoff-Gore, and Timo Schmidt, COVID-19 and the
State of Global Mobility in 2020, Migration Policy Institute, April 2021, 57 pp. , Migration Policy Institute, April 2021, 57 pp.
Michael Varnum, Cendri Hutcherson, and Igor Grossmann, “Everyone Was Wrong on the Michael Varnum, Cendri Hutcherson, and Igor Grossmann, “Everyone Was Wrong on the
Pandemic’s Societal Impact, In March 2020, a Study Asked Experts and Laypeople for Their Pandemic’s Societal Impact, In March 2020, a Study Asked Experts and Laypeople for Their
Predictions. Neither Group Came Close to Being Right,” Predictions. Neither Group Came Close to Being Right,” Foreign Policy, March 18, 2021. , March 18, 2021.
Bastian Giegerich, Fenel a McGerty, and Peter Round, Bastian Giegerich, Fenel a McGerty, and Peter Round, The Geo-Economics and Geopolitics of
COVID-19: Implications for European Security, International Institute for Strategic Studies , International Institute for Strategic Studies
(IISS), March 2021, 23 pp. (Posted online March 16, 2021.) (IISS), March 2021, 23 pp. (Posted online March 16, 2021.)
Fabio Teixeira, “Over 20 Countries Found Weakening Environmental Protection During Fabio Teixeira, “Over 20 Countries Found Weakening Environmental Protection During
Pandemic,” Pandemic,” Reuters, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Edward Alden, “The Human Cost of Endless Pandemic Border Closures, One Year after the Edward Alden, “The Human Cost of Endless Pandemic Border Closures, One Year after the
World Declared Borders Shut, There Is Stil No Plan to Reduce the Toll on Mil ions of Lives,” World Declared Borders Shut, There Is Stil No Plan to Reduce the Toll on Mil ions of Lives,”
Foreign Policy, February 26, 2021. , February 26, 2021.
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Simon Lester Huan Zhu, “The Danger of Blindly Navigating Data Nationalism, Digital Trade and Simon Lester Huan Zhu, “The Danger of Blindly Navigating Data Nationalism, Digital Trade and
the Flow of Digital Information Are Certain to Grow in Prominence in the Future. The the Flow of Digital Information Are Certain to Grow in Prominence in the Future. The
Coronavirus Pandemic Has Pushed Their Growth Curve Along,” Coronavirus Pandemic Has Pushed Their Growth Curve Along,” National Interest, February 21, , February 21,
2021. 2021.
Judd Devermont, Judd Devermont, A Post-Covid-19 Reset, The Future of Africa’s Foreign Partnerships, Center for , Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), February 2021, 14 pp. Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), February 2021, 14 pp.
John R. Al en et al., “The World After the Coronavirus, We Asked 12 Leading Thinkers to Predict John R. Al en et al., “The World After the Coronavirus, We Asked 12 Leading Thinkers to Predict
What Happens in 2021 and Beyond,” What Happens in 2021 and Beyond,” Foreign Policy, January 2, 2021. , January 2, 2021.
IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication: The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications
of the COVID-19 Pandemic, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), December 2020, , International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), December 2020,
54 pp. 54 pp.
Colum Lynch, “U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague, United Nations Diplomats and Civil Colum Lynch, “U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague, United Nations Diplomats and Civil
Servants Fear Peace Efforts in Geneva May Aid the Spread of The Coronavirus,” Servants Fear Peace Efforts in Geneva May Aid the Spread of The Coronavirus,” Foreign Policy, ,
November 13, 2020. November 13, 2020.
Matthew Lavietes, “U.N. Says Pandemic Wil Slow Already Miniscule Progress in Women’s Matthew Lavietes, “U.N. Says Pandemic Wil Slow Already Miniscule Progress in Women’s
Rights,” Rights,” Reuters, October 20, 2020. , October 20, 2020.
Travis Bubenik, “Costlier Than War: Researchers Put Pandemic’s [U.S.] Price Tag at $16 Travis Bubenik, “Costlier Than War: Researchers Put Pandemic’s [U.S.] Price Tag at $16
Tril ion,” Tril ion,” Courthouse News Service, October 12, 2020. , October 12, 2020.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19 Might Not Change the World, Pandemics Are Not Always Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19 Might Not Change the World, Pandemics Are Not Always
Transformative Events. While Some Worrying Preexisting Trends Could Accelerate, It’s Incorrect Transformative Events. While Some Worrying Preexisting Trends Could Accelerate, It’s Incorrect
to Assume that the Coronavirus Wil End Globalization, Kil Liberal Democracy, or Enhance to Assume that the Coronavirus Wil End Globalization, Kil Liberal Democracy, or Enhance
China’s Soft Power,” China’s Soft Power,” Foreign Policy, October 9, 2020. , October 9, 2020.
IGCC Experts, “Global Cooperation in the Time of COVID-19,” Institute on Global Conflict and IGCC Experts, “Global Cooperation in the Time of COVID-19,” Institute on Global Conflict and
Cooperation, UC San Diego, October 5, 2020. Cooperation, UC San Diego, October 5, 2020.
Vivek Wadhwa, “The Genetic Engineering Genie Is Out of the Bottle, the Next Pandemic Could Vivek Wadhwa, “The Genetic Engineering Genie Is Out of the Bottle, the Next Pandemic Could
be Bioengineered in Someone’s Garage Using Cheap and Widely Available Technology,” be Bioengineered in Someone’s Garage Using Cheap and Widely Available Technology,” Foreign
Policy, September 11, 2020. , September 11, 2020.
Sohini Chatterjee and Mark P. Lagon, “The Cataclysmic Great Power Chal enge Everyone Saw Sohini Chatterjee and Mark P. Lagon, “The Cataclysmic Great Power Chal enge Everyone Saw
Coming, Violent Extremism, Migration, Pandemics, and Climate Change Are Among the Coming, Violent Extremism, Migration, Pandemics, and Climate Change Are Among the
Burgeoning List of Fundamental Chal enges That Wil Require Transnational Cooperation and Burgeoning List of Fundamental Chal enges That Wil Require Transnational Cooperation and
Collaboration,” Collaboration,” National Interest, August 28, 2020. , August 28, 2020.
Edward Alden, “The World Needs to Reopen Borders Before It’s Too Late, Even As They Edward Alden, “The World Needs to Reopen Borders Before It’s Too Late, Even As They
Struggle to Control the Pandemic, Governments Should Move Quickly to Reopen Borders Struggle to Control the Pandemic, Governments Should Move Quickly to Reopen Borders
Instead of Giving in to Xenophobia, Nationalism, and Il usions of Autarky,” Instead of Giving in to Xenophobia, Nationalism, and Il usions of Autarky,” Foreign Policy, ,
August 25, 2020. August 25, 2020.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19,” Daniel W. Drezner, “The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19,”
Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020. Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020.
Michael R. Kenwick and Beth A. Simmons, “Pandemic Response as Border Politics,” Cambridge Michael R. Kenwick and Beth A. Simmons, “Pandemic Response as Border Politics,” Cambridge
University Press, August 19, 2020. University Press, August 19, 2020.
Mohan Malik, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks,” Mohan Malik, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks,” Strategist (Australian Strategic
Policy Institute), August 4, 2020. , August 4, 2020.
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Seth A. Johnston, “The Pandemic and the Limits of Realism, The Foundational International Seth A. Johnston, “The Pandemic and the Limits of Realism, The Foundational International
Relations Theory Has Been Revealed to Be Far Less Realistic Than It Claims,” Relations Theory Has Been Revealed to Be Far Less Realistic Than It Claims,” Foreign Policy, ,
June 24, 2020. June 24, 2020.
James Goldgeier and Carmen Iezzi Mezzera, “How to Rethink the Teaching of International James Goldgeier and Carmen Iezzi Mezzera, “How to Rethink the Teaching of International
Relations, As Universities Struggle to Respond to the Ongoing Pandemic, Here’s What They Relations, As Universities Struggle to Respond to the Ongoing Pandemic, Here’s What They
Should Focus On,” Should Focus On,” Foreign Policy, June 12, 2020. , June 12, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “The Pandemic’s 5 Silver Linings, The Coronavirus Has Exacted a Terrible Stephen M. Walt, “The Pandemic’s 5 Silver Linings, The Coronavirus Has Exacted a Terrible
Toll—But Some Good Things May Come of It Yet,” Toll—But Some Good Things May Come of It Yet,” Foreign Policy, May 26, 2020. , May 26, 2020.
Tom McTague, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming, Western Capitals Aren’t Tom McTague, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming, Western Capitals Aren’t
Just Worried About the Risk of a Resurgence in Coronavirus Cases,” Just Worried About the Risk of a Resurgence in Coronavirus Cases,” Atlantic, May 18, 2020. , May 18, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “Wil a Global Depression Trigger Another World War? The Coronavirus Stephen M. Walt, “Wil a Global Depression Trigger Another World War? The Coronavirus
Pandemic Has Already Devastated the International Economy. Its Military Fal out Remains to Be Pandemic Has Already Devastated the International Economy. Its Military Fal out Remains to Be
Seen,” Seen,” Foreign Policy, May 13, 2020. , May 13, 2020.
Phil ip Y. Lipscy, “It’s Too Soon to Cal Coronavirus Winners and Losers, Given how much Phil ip Y. Lipscy, “It’s Too Soon to Cal Coronavirus Winners and Losers, Given how much
remains unknown about the virus, talk of success may be premature,” remains unknown about the virus, talk of success may be premature,” Foreign Policy, May 12, , May 12,
2020. 2020.
Alan Nicol, “The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis, Insufficient Water for Washing Alan Nicol, “The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis, Insufficient Water for Washing
Is Likely to Worsen the Coronavirus in the Poorest Nations. There’s a Better Way Forward,” Is Likely to Worsen the Coronavirus in the Poorest Nations. There’s a Better Way Forward,”
Foreign Policy, May 12, 2020. , May 12, 2020.
George H. Nash, “The Coronavirus Pandemic of 2020 in Historical Perspective,” George H. Nash, “The Coronavirus Pandemic of 2020 in Historical Perspective,” National
Review, May 11, 2020. , May 11, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Says Pandemic Is Unleashing a ‘Tsunami of Hate,’” Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Says Pandemic Is Unleashing a ‘Tsunami of Hate,’” Associated
Press, May 8, 2020. , May 8, 2020.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, “Why the Coronavirus Won't Transform International Affairs Like 9/11 Nikolas K. Gvosdev, “Why the Coronavirus Won't Transform International Affairs Like 9/11
Did,” Did,” National Interest, May 5, 2020. , May 5, 2020.
Deepanshu Mohan, “The Geopolitical Contours of a Post-COVID-19 World,” Deepanshu Mohan, “The Geopolitical Contours of a Post-COVID-19 World,” East Asia Forum, ,
May 2, 2020. May 2, 2020.
Andrew Ehrhardt, “Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century,” Andrew Ehrhardt, “Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century,” War on the Rocks, April 30, , April 30,
2019. 2019.
Resilience in the Face of the Coronavirus Pandemic, World Politics Review report, May 2020, 47 , World Politics Review report, May 2020, 47
pp. (Includes essays by various authors with the titles “Planning for the World After the pp. (Includes essays by various authors with the titles “Planning for the World After the
Coronavirus Pandemic,” “What It Wil Take to Save Economies From the Coronavirus Coronavirus Pandemic,” “What It Wil Take to Save Economies From the Coronavirus
Pandemic,” “Building Trust, Confidence and Collective Action in the Age of COVID-19,” “Why Pandemic,” “Building Trust, Confidence and Collective Action in the Age of COVID-19,” “Why
Tackling Corruption Is Crucial to the Global Coronavirus Response,” and “The Geography of Tackling Corruption Is Crucial to the Global Coronavirus Response,” and “The Geography of
COVID-19 and a Vulnerable Global Food System.”) COVID-19 and a Vulnerable Global Food System.”)
Iain King, “How Covid-19 Wil Change Us: Seven Lessons from the Most Consequential Iain King, “How Covid-19 Wil Change Us: Seven Lessons from the Most Consequential
Pandemics in History,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 29, 2020. Pandemics in History,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 29, 2020.
Dmitri K. Simes, “The Perfect Storm,” Dmitri K. Simes, “The Perfect Storm,” National Interest, April 24, 2020. , April 24, 2020.
Fred Kaplan, “What Happens if Oil Doesn’t Recover? If Demand Doesn’t Pick Up This Summer, Fred Kaplan, “What Happens if Oil Doesn’t Recover? If Demand Doesn’t Pick Up This Summer,
We Could See Major Shifts in Global Power,” We Could See Major Shifts in Global Power,” Slate, April 23, 2020. , April 23, 2020.
Barry R. Posen, “Do Pandemics Promote Peace? Why Sickness Slows the March to War,” Barry R. Posen, “Do Pandemics Promote Peace? Why Sickness Slows the March to War,”
Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2020. , April 23, 2020.
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Joseph Cirincione, “How to Prevent War During the Coronavirus Pandemic, How Wil the Joseph Cirincione, “How to Prevent War During the Coronavirus Pandemic, How Wil the
Coronavirus Threaten Global Peace?” Coronavirus Threaten Global Peace?” National Interest, April 22, 2020. , April 22, 2020.
Frank Hoffman, “An American Perspective on Post-Pandemic Geopolitics,” RUSI, April 20, Frank Hoffman, “An American Perspective on Post-Pandemic Geopolitics,” RUSI, April 20,
2020. 2020.
Gordon Bardos, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Force America to Look in the Mirror and Reform?” Gordon Bardos, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Force America to Look in the Mirror and Reform?”
National Interest, April 18, 2020. , April 18, 2020.
Nicholas Eberstadt, “The “New Normal”: Thoughts about the Shape of Things to Come in the Nicholas Eberstadt, “The “New Normal”: Thoughts about the Shape of Things to Come in the
Post-Pandemic World,” National Bureau of Asian Research, April 18, 2020. Post-Pandemic World,” National Bureau of Asian Research, April 18, 2020.
Steve Coll, “Woodrow Wilson’s Case of the Flu, and How Pandemics Change History,” Steve Coll, “Woodrow Wilson’s Case of the Flu, and How Pandemics Change History,” New
Yorker, April 17, 2020. , April 17, 2020.
Ravi Kant, “Coronavirus: An Ice-Nine Moment for the World,” Ravi Kant, “Coronavirus: An Ice-Nine Moment for the World,” Asia Times, April 15, 2020. , April 15, 2020.
Jackson Diehl, “The Pandemic Is Kil ing Truth, Too,” Jackson Diehl, “The Pandemic Is Kil ing Truth, Too,” Washington Post, April 12, 2020. , April 12, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Threatens Global Peace and Security,” Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Threatens Global Peace and Security,”
Associated Press, April 10, 2020. , April 10, 2020.
Richard Haass, “The Pandemic Wil Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It, Not Every Crisis Richard Haass, “The Pandemic Wil Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It, Not Every Crisis
Is a Turning Point, Is a Turning Point, Foreign Affairs, April 7, 2020. , April 7, 2020.
Stratfor Worldview, “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Changing the World—and the Future,” Stratfor Worldview, “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Changing the World—and the Future,”
National Interest, April 4, 2020. , April 4, 2020.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Most Counterintuitive Prediction about World Politics and the Daniel W. Drezner, “The Most Counterintuitive Prediction about World Politics and the
Coronavirus, What If Nothing Changes?” Coronavirus, What If Nothing Changes?” Washington Post, March 30, 2020. , March 30, 2020.
Ali Demirdas, “Western Values May Not Survive the Coronavirus. European Unity and American Ali Demirdas, “Western Values May Not Survive the Coronavirus. European Unity and American
Military Power Just Haven’t Held Up,” Military Power Just Haven’t Held Up,” National Interest, March 28, 2020. , March 28, 2020.
John Al en et al., “How the World Wil Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic,” John Al en et al., “How the World Wil Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Foreign Policy, ,
March 20, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 12 authors.) March 20, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 12 authors.)
Maxine Whittaker, “How Infectious Diseases Have Shaped Our Culture, Habits and Language,” Maxine Whittaker, “How Infectious Diseases Have Shaped Our Culture, Habits and Language,”
The Conversation, July 12, 2017. , July 12, 2017.
World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance
Rosemary Flowers-Wanjie, “Rich Countries Are Ignoring the Global Vaccine System, Money Isn’t the Problem. Power Is,” Foreign Policy, September 23, 2021. Jeneen Interlandi, “The World Is at War With Covid. Covid Is Winning,” New York Times, September 21, 2021. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, and Lawrence H. Summers, “We Don’t Have to Fly Blind into the Next Pandemic,” Washington Post, September 16, 2021. Adam Tooze, “What if the Coronavirus Crisis Is Just a Trial Run?” New York Times, September 1, 2021. Catherine Osborn, “COVAX Is Not Working, Wil the Pandemic’s Delta Phase be More Equitable?” Foreign Policy, August 6, 2021. Simon Frankel Pratt and Jamie Levin, “Vaccines Wil Shape the New Geopolitical Order, The Simon Frankel Pratt and Jamie Levin, “Vaccines Wil Shape the New Geopolitical Order, The
Gulf Between Haves and Have-Nots is Only Growing,” Gulf Between Haves and Have-Nots is Only Growing,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2021. , April 29, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 16 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Nina Schwalbe, “The World Should Treat Pandemics Like It Treats Chemical Weapons, Plans for Nina Schwalbe, “The World Should Treat Pandemics Like It Treats Chemical Weapons, Plans for
a Global Pandemic Treaty Don’t Solve the Problem of China’s Refusal to Cooperate,” a Global Pandemic Treaty Don’t Solve the Problem of China’s Refusal to Cooperate,” Foreign
Policy, April 14, 2021. , April 14, 2021.
Scott Neuman, “Many World Leaders Cal For Treaty On Future Pandemics,” Scott Neuman, “Many World Leaders Cal For Treaty On Future Pandemics,” NPR, March 30, , March 30,
2021. 2021.
Helen V. Milner, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, Michael J. Tierney, and Erik Voeten, “Trump, Helen V. Milner, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, Michael J. Tierney, and Erik Voeten, “Trump,
COVID-19, and the Future of International Order, In a New Survey, International Relations COVID-19, and the Future of International Order, In a New Survey, International Relations
Experts Are Pessimistic About the Years to Come,” Experts Are Pessimistic About the Years to Come,” Foreign Policy, October 8, 2020. , October 8, 2020.
Seth Center and Emma Bates, editors, Seth Center and Emma Bates, editors, After Disruption: Historical Perspectives on the Future of
International Order, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 65 , Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 65
pp. pp.
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Hung Tran, Hung Tran, “One World, Two Systems” Takes Shape During the Pandemic, Atlantic Council, , Atlantic Council,
September 2020, 10 pp. September 2020, 10 pp.
Brett D. Schaefer and Daniel e Pletka, “How the WHO Can Earn Back U.S. Support,” Heritage Brett D. Schaefer and Daniel e Pletka, “How the WHO Can Earn Back U.S. Support,” Heritage
Foundation, August 17, 2020. Foundation, August 17, 2020.
Bobo Lo, “Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West, It’s Time Bobo Lo, “Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West, It’s Time
to Rethink Global to Rethink Global Governance and its Priorities,” Lowy Institute, July 29, 2020. Governance and its Priorities,” Lowy Institute, July 29, 2020.
Robert D. Blackwil Thomas Wright, “Why COVID-19 Presents a World Reordering Moment,” Robert D. Blackwil Thomas Wright, “Why COVID-19 Presents a World Reordering Moment,”
National Interest, July 11, 2020. , July 11, 2020.
Jeffrey Cimmino et al., Jeffrey Cimmino et al., A Global Strategy for Shaping the Post-COVID-19 World, Atlantic , Atlantic
Council, 2020 (released July 7, 2020), 52 pp. Council, 2020 (released July 7, 2020), 52 pp.
Mary Robinson, “Multilateralism Offers Hope for a Sea-Change after COVID-19,” Mary Robinson, “Multilateralism Offers Hope for a Sea-Change after COVID-19,” The Hill, June , June
26, 2020. 26, 2020.
Aparna Pande, “India Could Emerge as the Global Power the World Has Been Waiting for After Aparna Pande, “India Could Emerge as the Global Power the World Has Been Waiting for After
COVID,” COVID,” Hudson Institute, June 8, 2020. , June 8, 2020.
James Crabtree, “Welcome to a World of Bubbles, Countries Across Europe and Asia Are James Crabtree, “Welcome to a World of Bubbles, Countries Across Europe and Asia Are
Exploring Special Bilateral Arrangements to Ease Border Restrictions. The Result Could Be a Exploring Special Bilateral Arrangements to Ease Border Restrictions. The Result Could Be a
Globe Fractured Along Epidemiological Lines,” Globe Fractured Along Epidemiological Lines,” Foreign Policy, June 1, 2020. , June 1, 2020.
Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel, Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel, Taking Stock: Where Are Geopolitics
Headed in the COVID-19 Era? Atlantic Council, June 2020, 20 pp. Atlantic Council, June 2020, 20 pp.
U.S. Global Leadership and Role in World
Jonah Blank, “Biden Can Bounce Back From Afghanistan—By Vaccinating the World, My Former Boss Has a Rare Opportunity to Prove His Critics Wrong,” Foreign Policy, September 10, 2021. Katherine Eban, “How ‘Micromanagement and Distrust’ Hobbled Biden’s Global Vaccination Push, The White House Says It Is Donating More Doses Than ‘Al Other Countries Combined,’ But Critics Inside and Outside the U.S. Government Warn of an Effort that Is ‘Wildly Insufficient,’” Vanity Fair, September 9, 2021. Isaac Chotiner, “Has the Biden Administration Failed on Global Vaccines? Krishna Udayakumar, The Founding Director of Duke’s Global Health Innovation Center, Describes What the U.S. Needs to Do Now to Support Vaccination Around the World,” New Yorker, August 31, 2021. Congressional Research Service 17 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Eric A. Friedman and Lawrence O. Gostin, “The Whole World Needs Vaccines Before a Worse Variant Than Delta Arrives, The United States Has to Put Global Health First Unless It Wants a New Disaster,” Foreign Policy, August 24, 2021. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), US Emergency Plan for Global COVID-19 Relief: Urgent Action to End the Pandemic Globally and Accelerate US Recovery and Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), August 3, 2021, 9 pp. Oluwatosin Adeshokan et al., “Africa Reacts to U.S. Vaccine Distribution at Home and Abroad,” Oluwatosin Adeshokan et al., “Africa Reacts to U.S. Vaccine Distribution at Home and Abroad,”
Cener for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), July 29, 2021. Cener for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), July 29, 2021.
CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security, CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security, Time to Escalate U.S. Leadership
on Covid-19 and Beyond, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), July 2021, 16 pp. , Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), July 2021, 16 pp.
(Posted online July 21, 2021.) (The report states on its final page that its authors are Julie (Posted online July 21, 2021.) (The report states on its final page that its authors are Julie
Gerberding, Susan Brooks, J. Stephen Morrison, Anna McCaffrey, and Katherine E. Bliss.) Gerberding, Susan Brooks, J. Stephen Morrison, Anna McCaffrey, and Katherine E. Bliss.)
Robbie Gramer, “Biden to Ship Mil ions of Vaccines to Africa, The United States Wil Donate 25 Robbie Gramer, “Biden to Ship Mil ions of Vaccines to Africa, The United States Wil Donate 25
Mil ion Doses as African Countries Reel from a Third Wave of COVID-19,” Mil ion Doses as African Countries Reel from a Third Wave of COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, July , July
16, 2021. 16, 2021.
Michael Gerson, “Covid-19’s Global Spread is a Test for America,” Michael Gerson, “Covid-19’s Global Spread is a Test for America,” Washington Post, July 15, , July 15,
2021. 2021.
Robert Zoel ick, “Liberal Democracies Are Running Out of Time to Save the rest of the Planet Robert Zoel ick, “Liberal Democracies Are Running Out of Time to Save the rest of the Planet
from Covid,” from Covid,” Washington Post, July 9, 2021. , July 9, 2021.
Derek Thompson, “World War II’s Lesson for After the Pandemic, The U.S. Needs Another Derek Thompson, “World War II’s Lesson for After the Pandemic, The U.S. Needs Another
Innovation Dream Team,” Innovation Dream Team,” Atlantic, June 28, 2021. , June 28, 2021.
David Adesnik, “America’s Syrian Al ies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine, They Vanquished the David Adesnik, “America’s Syrian Al ies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine, They Vanquished the
Islamic State and Are Now in Desperate Need of Aid,” Islamic State and Are Now in Desperate Need of Aid,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2021. , June 22, 2021.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Biden Boosts Vaccine-Sharing, Says U.S. Soon Wil Outpace Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Biden Boosts Vaccine-Sharing, Says U.S. Soon Wil Outpace
Donations By Russia, China,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 18, 2021. Donations By Russia, China,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 18, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
17

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Christian Paz, “America’s Vaccine Nationalism Isn’t Working, The Longer It Takes for the United Christian Paz, “America’s Vaccine Nationalism Isn’t Working, The Longer It Takes for the United
States to Lead a Global Response, the More the Risks Compound,” States to Lead a Global Response, the More the Risks Compound,” Atlantic, May 13, 2021. , May 13, 2021.
Karen DeYoung, “Samantha Power Wants to Restore U.S. Prestige by Getting American-made Karen DeYoung, “Samantha Power Wants to Restore U.S. Prestige by Getting American-made
Vaccines ‘Into Arms’ Around the World,” Vaccines ‘Into Arms’ Around the World,” Washington Post, May 11 (updated May 12), 2021. , May 11 (updated May 12), 2021.
Dan Diamond and Tyler Pager, “‘Where is the plan?’: Biden Pressed on Global Vaccine Strategy, Dan Diamond and Tyler Pager, “‘Where is the plan?’: Biden Pressed on Global Vaccine Strategy,
Critics Say the Administration Has Taken a Piecemeal Approach to the Worsening International Critics Say the Administration Has Taken a Piecemeal Approach to the Worsening International
Crisis,” Crisis,” Washington Post, May 9, 2021. , May 9, 2021.
Chelsea Clinton and Achal Prabhala, “Biden Has the Power to Vaccinate the World, He Should Chelsea Clinton and Achal Prabhala, “Biden Has the Power to Vaccinate the World, He Should
Use It,” Use It,” Atlantic, May 5, 2021. , May 5, 2021.
Tom Frieden and Marine Buissonnière, “The U.S. Has the Power to Tamp Down Coronavirus Tom Frieden and Marine Buissonnière, “The U.S. Has the Power to Tamp Down Coronavirus
Variants—If We’re Wil ing to Use It,” Variants—If We’re Wil ing to Use It,” Politico, March 2, 2021. , March 2, 2021.
Gregory B. Poling, “Embracing a Pandemic-Centered Foreign Policy,” Center for Strategic and Gregory B. Poling, “Embracing a Pandemic-Centered Foreign Policy,” Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), March 1, 2021. International Studies (CSIS), March 1, 2021.
Dan Diamond and Jeff Stein, “White House Is Split Over How to Vaccinate the World,” Dan Diamond and Jeff Stein, “White House Is Split Over How to Vaccinate the World,”
Washington Post, April 30, 2021. , April 30, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 18 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Michael Hirsh, “Health Experts Slam Biden’s ‘Massive’ Global Leadership Failure, Biden’s Michael Hirsh, “Health Experts Slam Biden’s ‘Massive’ Global Leadership Failure, Biden’s
Speech to Congress Ignores His Dithering on COVID-19 Vaccine Patents, Jeopardizing Mil ions Speech to Congress Ignores His Dithering on COVID-19 Vaccine Patents, Jeopardizing Mil ions
of Lives in Other Nations, Critics Say.,” of Lives in Other Nations, Critics Say.,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2021. , April 29, 2021.
J. Stephen Morrison, Katherine E. Bliss, and Anna McCaffrey, J. Stephen Morrison, Katherine E. Bliss, and Anna McCaffrey, The Time Is Now for U.S. Global
Leadership on Covid-19 Vaccines, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April , Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April
2021, 11 pp. (Posted online April 14, 2021.) 2021, 11 pp. (Posted online April 14, 2021.)
Anne Applebaum, “What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World, The U.S. Anne Applebaum, “What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World, The U.S.
Stumbled Early in the Pandemic, But the Vaccine Rollout Could Reboot the Country’s Image,” Stumbled Early in the Pandemic, But the Vaccine Rollout Could Reboot the Country’s Image,”
Atlantic, April 10, 2021. , April 10, 2021.
Azmi Haroun, “Global NGOs Cal on the Biden Administration to Concoct a Plan for Sharing Azmi Haroun, “Global NGOs Cal on the Biden Administration to Concoct a Plan for Sharing
Vaccine Surplus with Nations in Need,” Vaccine Surplus with Nations in Need,” Business Insider, March 30, 2021. , March 30, 2021.
Justin Talbot Zorn and Mathias Alencastro, “In Brazil, Vaccine Diplomacy Can Help Save the Justin Talbot Zorn and Mathias Alencastro, “In Brazil, Vaccine Diplomacy Can Help Save the
Climate, Washington Should Bypass Bolsonaro and Open a Direct Dialogue on Amazon Climate, Washington Should Bypass Bolsonaro and Open a Direct Dialogue on Amazon
Deforestation with Local Leaders in Regions Hit Hard by COVID-19,” Deforestation with Local Leaders in Regions Hit Hard by COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, March , March
30, 2021. 30, 2021.
John Oldfield, “We Need US Leadership on Water Security to Combat COVID-19 Global y,” John Oldfield, “We Need US Leadership on Water Security to Combat COVID-19 Global y,” The
Hill, March 29, 2021. , March 29, 2021.
Thomas J. Bollyky, “Democracies Keep Vaccines for Themselves, President Biden’s Pledge to Thomas J. Bollyky, “Democracies Keep Vaccines for Themselves, President Biden’s Pledge to
Mexico Is an Exception from a Stark Pattern.,” Mexico Is an Exception from a Stark Pattern.,” Atlantic, March 27, 2021. , March 27, 2021.
Dave Lawler, “Biden’s Next Chal enge: Vaccine Diplomacy,” Dave Lawler, “Biden’s Next Chal enge: Vaccine Diplomacy,” Axios, March 22, 2021. , March 22, 2021.
Selam Gebrekidan and Matt Apuzzo, “Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the Selam Gebrekidan and Matt Apuzzo, “Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the
World, Despite Warnings, American and European Officials Gave Up Leverage that Could Have World, Despite Warnings, American and European Officials Gave Up Leverage that Could Have
Guaranteed Access for Bil ions of People. That Risks Prolonging the Pandemic,” Guaranteed Access for Bil ions of People. That Risks Prolonging the Pandemic,” New York
Times, March 21 (updated May 7), 2021. , March 21 (updated May 7), 2021.
Jason Marczak and Cristina Guevara, Jason Marczak and Cristina Guevara, COVID-19 Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean:
A Partnership Strategy for the Biden Administration, Atlantic Council, March 2021, 37 pp. , Atlantic Council, March 2021, 37 pp.
(Posted online March 16, 2021.) (Posted online March 16, 2021.)
~~Congressional Research Service~~
18

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Colm Quinn, “G-7 Scrambles for Global Vaccine Plan, After Months of Warnings, the Group of Colm Quinn, “G-7 Scrambles for Global Vaccine Plan, After Months of Warnings, the Group of
Wealthy Nations Has Begun to Put Forward Solutions to the Lopsided Distribution of Wealthy Nations Has Begun to Put Forward Solutions to the Lopsided Distribution of
Coronavirus Vaccines,” Coronavirus Vaccines,” Foreign Policy, February 19, 2021. , February 19, 2021.
Emily Rauhala, Erin Cunningham, and Adam Taylor, “White House Announces $4 Bil ion in Emily Rauhala, Erin Cunningham, and Adam Taylor, “White House Announces $4 Bil ion in
Funding for Covax, the Global Vaccine Effort that Trump Spurned,” Funding for Covax, the Global Vaccine Effort that Trump Spurned,” Washington Post, February , February
18, 2021. 18, 2021.
Jan Tore Sanner, “Why the Rich World Cannot Afford to Leave the Poor Behind on Vaccines,” Jan Tore Sanner, “Why the Rich World Cannot Afford to Leave the Poor Behind on Vaccines,”
Government.no (Government of Norway), February 16, 2021. , February 16, 2021.
Alex Leary, “Biden to Join G-7 Leaders in Virtual Meeting to Discuss Pandemic Response,” Alex Leary, “Biden to Join G-7 Leaders in Virtual Meeting to Discuss Pandemic Response,” Wall
Street Journal, February 14, 2021. , February 14, 2021.
Ethan Guil én, “End the Pandemic Faster by Listening to Developing Countries, Biden Has a Ethan Guil én, “End the Pandemic Faster by Listening to Developing Countries, Biden Has a
Golden Opportunity to Help with Global Vaccines,” Golden Opportunity to Help with Global Vaccines,” Foreign Policy, February 8, 2021. , February 8, 2021.
Jonathan Tepperman, “The Global Vaccine Rollout Is Failing—and That Puts Everyone, Jonathan Tepperman, “The Global Vaccine Rollout Is Failing—and That Puts Everyone,
Everywhere, In Danger, The Selfish Reasons the United States and Europe Must Help Poor Everywhere, In Danger, The Selfish Reasons the United States and Europe Must Help Poor
Countries Deal with COVID-19,” Countries Deal with COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, January 28, 2021. , January 28, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 19 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment White House, “National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the White House, “National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the
International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological
Preparedness,” National Security Directive 1, White House, January 21, 2021. Preparedness,” National Security Directive 1, White House, January 21, 2021.
Kenneth C. Bril , “COVID-19 Vaccine Lessons for American Diplomacy after Trump,” Kenneth C. Bril , “COVID-19 Vaccine Lessons for American Diplomacy after Trump,” The Hill, ,
January 14, 2021. January 14, 2021.
China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader
James T. Areddy, “China Aims to Export 2 Bil ion Covid-19 Vaccines This Year, Commitment Expands Chinese Diplomatic Effort to Help Developing Nations, as Delta Variant Spreads,” Wall Street Journal, August 6, 2021. Sui-Lee Wee, “They Relied on Chinese Vaccines. Now They’re Battling Outbreaks. More Than Sui-Lee Wee, “They Relied on Chinese Vaccines. Now They’re Battling Outbreaks. More Than
90 Countries Are Using Covid Shots from China. Experts Say Recent Infections in Those Places 90 Countries Are Using Covid Shots from China. Experts Say Recent Infections in Those Places
Should Serve As a Cautionary Tale in the Global Effort to Fight the Disease,” Should Serve As a Cautionary Tale in the Global Effort to Fight the Disease,” New York Times, ,
June 22 (updated June 28), 2021. June 22 (updated June 28), 2021.
Raymond Zhong and Christopher F. Schuetze, “Taiwan Wants German Vaccines. China May Be Raymond Zhong and Christopher F. Schuetze, “Taiwan Wants German Vaccines. China May Be
Standing in Its Way,” Standing in Its Way,” New York Times, June 16 (updated June 22), 2021. , June 16 (updated June 22), 2021.
Associated Press, “Taiwan Says China Exploiting Vaccines for Political Gain,” Associated Press, “Taiwan Says China Exploiting Vaccines for Political Gain,” Associated Press, ,
June 3, 2021. June 3, 2021.
Adam Taylor and Paul Schemm, “China’s Great Vaccine Hope, Sinopharm, Sees Reputation Adam Taylor and Paul Schemm, “China’s Great Vaccine Hope, Sinopharm, Sees Reputation
Darkened Amid Covid Spikes in Countries Using It,” Darkened Amid Covid Spikes in Countries Using It,” Washington Post, June 3, 2021. , June 3, 2021.
Uwagbale Edward-Ekpu, “China’s Vaccine Outreach in Africa is Fal ing Short of Beijing’s Uwagbale Edward-Ekpu, “China’s Vaccine Outreach in Africa is Fal ing Short of Beijing’s
Pledges,” Pledges,” Quartz Africa, May 21, 2021. , May 21, 2021.
Ben Smith, “When Covid Hit, China Was Ready to Tel Its Version of the Story, The Government Ben Smith, “When Covid Hit, China Was Ready to Tel Its Version of the Story, The Government
Has Been Using Its Money and Power to Create an Alternative to a Global News Media Has Been Using Its Money and Power to Create an Alternative to a Global News Media
Dominated by Outlets like the BBC and CNN,” Dominated by Outlets like the BBC and CNN,” New York Times, May 9 (updated May 29), 2021. , May 9 (updated May 29), 2021.
Vincent Ni, “Border Dispute Casts Shadow over China’s Offers of Covid Help for India,” Vincent Ni, “Border Dispute Casts Shadow over China’s Offers of Covid Help for India,”
Guardian, April 29, 2021. , April 29, 2021.
Isabel Bernhard, “Latin America Believed in Chinese Vaccines. Now It May Have Reason to Isabel Bernhard, “Latin America Believed in Chinese Vaccines. Now It May Have Reason to
Rethink, China’s Latest Disclosure Could Reconfigure Regional Politics and Promote Domestic Rethink, China’s Latest Disclosure Could Reconfigure Regional Politics and Promote Domestic
Development Across the Americas,” Development Across the Americas,” Diplomat, April 21, 2021. , April 21, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
19

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Kareem Fahim and Karen DeYoung, “China Has Made Big Vaccine Promises. When They Come Kareem Fahim and Karen DeYoung, “China Has Made Big Vaccine Promises. When They Come
Up Short, Nations Struggle,” Up Short, Nations Struggle,” Washington Post, April 7, 2021. , April 7, 2021.
James Palmer, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Has Mixed Results, Concerns About the Efficacy of James Palmer, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Has Mixed Results, Concerns About the Efficacy of
Sinovac and Sinopharm Has Dented Their Reputation, Even Among Al ies of Beijing,” Sinovac and Sinopharm Has Dented Their Reputation, Even Among Al ies of Beijing,” Foreign
Policy, April 7, 2021. , April 7, 2021.
Francisco Urdinez, Francisco Urdinez, China’s Improvised Mask Diplomacy in Chile, Carnegie Endowment for , Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, April 2021, 30 pp. (Posted online April 6, 2021.) International Peace, April 2021, 30 pp. (Posted online April 6, 2021.)
Richard Javad Heydarian, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Stumbles in Southeast Asia, Delays and Richard Javad Heydarian, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Stumbles in Southeast Asia, Delays and
Concerns About the Efficacy and Politics of China’s Vaccine Shipments Plague Its Vaccine Drive Concerns About the Efficacy and Politics of China’s Vaccine Shipments Plague Its Vaccine Drive
in the Region,” in the Region,” Al Jazeera, April 5, 2021. , April 5, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 20 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Eli Lake, “China’s Claims of Exoneration on Covid Ring Hollow, Even the Head of the World Eli Lake, “China’s Claims of Exoneration on Covid Ring Hollow, Even the Head of the World
Health Organization Found Its Report on the Pandemic’s Origins Insufficient,” Health Organization Found Its Report on the Pandemic’s Origins Insufficient,” Bloomberg, April, , April,
2, 2021. 2, 2021.
Emily Rauhala, “WHO Chief, U.S. and Other World Leaders Criticize China for Limiting Access Emily Rauhala, “WHO Chief, U.S. and Other World Leaders Criticize China for Limiting Access
of Team Researching Coronavirus Origins,” of Team Researching Coronavirus Origins,” Washington Post, March 30, 2021. , March 30, 2021.
Rajni George, “At China’s Borders, “Vaccine Passports” Just Got Real, In Announcing It Would Rajni George, “At China’s Borders, “Vaccine Passports” Just Got Real, In Announcing It Would
Prioritize Travelers Who Had Received Chinese-Made Vaccines, Beijing Sparked Outrage in Prioritize Travelers Who Had Received Chinese-Made Vaccines, Beijing Sparked Outrage in
Countries Where Those Aren’t Available,” Countries Where Those Aren’t Available,” Foreign Policy, March 25, 2021. , March 25, 2021.
~~Elliot~~El iot Hannon, “China’s Happy to Share Its COVID-19 Vaccines, but Not the Data Showing if Hannon, “China’s Happy to Share Its COVID-19 Vaccines, but Not the Data Showing if
They Actual y Work,” They Actual y Work,” Slate, March 24, 2021. , March 24, 2021.
Eva Dou and Shibani Mahtani, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Stumbles as Clinical Trial Data Eva Dou and Shibani Mahtani, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Stumbles as Clinical Trial Data
Remains Absent,” Remains Absent,” Washington Post, March 23, 2021. , March 23, 2021.
Bret Schafer, Amber Frankland, Nathan Kohlenberg, and Etienne Soula, “Influence-enza: How Bret Schafer, Amber Frankland, Nathan Kohlenberg, and Etienne Soula, “Influence-enza: How
Russia, China, and Iran Have Shaped and Manipulated Coronavirus Vaccine Narratives,” Al iance Russia, China, and Iran Have Shaped and Manipulated Coronavirus Vaccine Narratives,” Al iance
for Securing Democracy (German Marshal Fud of the United States), March 6, 2021. for Securing Democracy (German Marshal Fud of the United States), March 6, 2021.
Huizhong Wu and Kristen Gelineau, “Chinese Vaccines Sweep Much of the World, Despite Huizhong Wu and Kristen Gelineau, “Chinese Vaccines Sweep Much of the World, Despite
Concerns,” Concerns,” Associated Press, March 2, 2021. , March 2, 2021.
Laura Pitel, “Turkey’s Uighurs Fear Betrayal over Chinese Vaccines and Trade, Erdogan Accused Laura Pitel, “Turkey’s Uighurs Fear Betrayal over Chinese Vaccines and Trade, Erdogan Accused
of Toning down Rhetoric about Oppressed Muslims to Avoid Upsetting Beijing,” of Toning down Rhetoric about Oppressed Muslims to Avoid Upsetting Beijing,” Financial
Times, February 24, 2021. , February 24, 2021.
Mordechai Chaziza, “Chinese Health Diplomacy and the Maghreb in the COVID-19 Era,” Mordechai Chaziza, “Chinese Health Diplomacy and the Maghreb in the COVID-19 Era,” Middle
East Institute, February 23, 2021. , February 23, 2021.
Yang Lizhong and Chen Dingding, “Is China’s COVID-19 Diplomacy Working in Southeast Yang Lizhong and Chen Dingding, “Is China’s COVID-19 Diplomacy Working in Southeast
Asia? A Recent Poll Suggests a Mixed Picture for China,” Asia? A Recent Poll Suggests a Mixed Picture for China,” Diplomat, February 20, 2021. , February 20, 2021.
Jason Hung, “In China’s ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ with the Philippines, Both Sides Are Taking Big Jason Hung, “In China’s ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ with the Philippines, Both Sides Are Taking Big
Risks,” East-West Center, February 19, 2021. Risks,” East-West Center, February 19, 2021.
Lucien O. Chauvin, Anthony Faiola, and Eva Dou, “Squeezed Out of the Race for Western Lucien O. Chauvin, Anthony Faiola, and Eva Dou, “Squeezed Out of the Race for Western
Vaccines, Developing Countries Turn to China,” Vaccines, Developing Countries Turn to China,” Washington Post, February 16, 2021. , February 16, 2021.
Erika Kinetz, “Anatomy of a Conspiracy: With COVID, China Took leading Role,” Erika Kinetz, “Anatomy of a Conspiracy: With COVID, China Took leading Role,” Associated
Press, February 15, 2021. , February 15, 2021.
Alex Leary, “U.S. Expresses ‘Deep Concerns’ Over China Withholding Data From Pandemic Alex Leary, “U.S. Expresses ‘Deep Concerns’ Over China Withholding Data From Pandemic
Investigators,” Investigators,” Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2021. , February 13, 2021.
Javier C. Hernández and James Gorman, “On W.H.O. Trip, China Refused to Hand Over Important Data,” New York Times, February 12, 2021. U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China and Russia Bonny Lin, Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Hannah Price, “China Is Exploiting the Pandemic to Advance Its Interests, with Mixed Results,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 30, 2021. Congressional Research Service 21~~Congressional Research Service~~
20

COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

~~Javier C. Hernández and James Gorman, “On W.H.O. Trip, China Refused to Hand Over~~
~~Important Data,” New York Times, February 12, 2021.~~
~~U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China~~
~~and Russia~~
~~Nick Baker, “China Has Accused Australia of Vaccine Sabotage in the Pacific. Here’s why, A~~
China Power Team. “Is China’s Covid-19 Diplomacy Succeeding?” China Power (Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS]), September 23 (updated September 30), 2021. Bob Herman, “The U.S. Isn’t Vaccinating Most of the World — But China Might,” Axios, September 13, 2021. Asif Muztaba Hassan, “China Swoops Into Bangladesh With a Vaccine Deal, It Bided Its Time and When India Halted Supply of Vaccines to Bangladesh, It Saw Opportunity and Struck,” Diplomat, August 24, 2021. Sui-Lee Wee and Steven Lee Myers, “As Chinese Vaccines Stumble, U.S. Finds New Opening in Asia, Several Southeast Asian Nations Are Raising Doubts about the Efficacy of China’s Vaccines. The Biden Administration Has Recently Offered to Provide Shots, ‘No Strings Attached,’” New York Times, August 20 (updated September 30), 2021. James Palmer, “Why China Keeps Spinning COVID-19 Conspiracies, A Fake Expert Is the Latest Part of a State Media Push to Blame the United States for the Pandemic—at Great Diplomatic Cost,” Foreign Policy, August 11, 2021. Shibani Mahtani, “Ravaged by Delta Outbreak, Southeast Asia Shifts Away from China’s Vaccines,” Washington Post, August 10, 2021. Bloomberg News, “China’s Covid-Zero Strategy Risks Leaving It Isolated for Years,” Bloomberg, August 9, 2021. Sui-Lee Wee, “China Says It Wil Provide 2 Bil ion Vaccine Doses to the World. The Pledge, Which Included a $100 Mil ion Donation to Covax, Intensifies Competition with the U.S. over Leadership in Ending the Pandemic,” New York Times, August 6 (updated August 9), 2021. Julian E. Barnes, “Russian Disinformation Targets Vaccines and the Biden Administration, A New Campaign Appears to be Spreading Falsehoods about the Potential for Forced Inoculations Against Covid-19,” New York Times, August 5 (updated September 20), 2021. Jonathan Barrett, “Biden Pledges ‘No Strings’ Pacific Pandemic Support,” Reuters, August 5, 2021. Nick Baker, “China Has Accused Australia of Vaccine Sabotage in the Pacific. Here’s why, A Spat Between China and Australia over Covid-19 Vaccines Highlights the Tense Geopolitics of Spat Between China and Australia over Covid-19 Vaccines Highlights the Tense Geopolitics of
the Pacific Region,” the Pacific Region,” NBC News, August 2, 2021. , August 2, 2021.
Jake Rudnitsky, “Russia’s Global Vaccine Ambitions Stumble During Supply Shortage,” Jake Rudnitsky, “Russia’s Global Vaccine Ambitions Stumble During Supply Shortage,”
Bloomberg, July 30, 2021. , July 30, 2021.
Benjamin Ho, “Why China Wil Not Cooperate with the West: The Pandemic Made Things Benjamin Ho, “Why China Wil Not Cooperate with the West: The Pandemic Made Things
Worse, Beijing Sees Vaccine Diplomacy as a Crucial Means with Which to Convince Other Worse, Beijing Sees Vaccine Diplomacy as a Crucial Means with Which to Convince Other
Countries of Its Goodwil and Friendship. It Wants to Seize the Moral High Ground to Claim that Countries of Its Goodwil and Friendship. It Wants to Seize the Moral High Ground to Claim that
It Is Superior to the West,” It Is Superior to the West,” National Interest, July 25, 2021. , July 25, 2021.
By Samuel Ramani, “Vaccines Are Japan’s New Tool to Counter China, Despite Its Worsening By Samuel Ramani, “Vaccines Are Japan’s New Tool to Counter China, Despite Its Worsening
Pandemic, Tokyo’s Vaccine Diplomacy Has Gained Traction,” Pandemic, Tokyo’s Vaccine Diplomacy Has Gained Traction,” Foreign Policy, July 23, 2021. , July 23, 2021.
Julia Hollingsworth and Ben Westcott, “A Pacific Nation’s Covid-19 Crisis Has Become a Julia Hollingsworth and Ben Westcott, “A Pacific Nation’s Covid-19 Crisis Has Become a
Political Power Play between China and Australia,” Political Power Play between China and Australia,” CNN, July 19, 2021. , July 19, 2021.
Chloe Lim And Nile Bowie, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Falters in SE Asia, Regional Nations Chloe Lim And Nile Bowie, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Falters in SE Asia, Regional Nations
Are Abandoning Chinese Vaccines for Western Ones as Evidence Mounts Sinovac Is Less Potent Are Abandoning Chinese Vaccines for Western Ones as Evidence Mounts Sinovac Is Less Potent
Against the Delta Strain,” Against the Delta Strain,” Asia Times, July 19, 2021. , July 19, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 22 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Josh Rogin, “China’s Vaccine Profiteering at the U.N. Is Being Funded by U.S. Taxpayers,” Josh Rogin, “China’s Vaccine Profiteering at the U.N. Is Being Funded by U.S. Taxpayers,”
Washington Post, July 15, 2021. , July 15, 2021.
R. Evan El is, “Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America, Caribbean a PR Coup for China,” R. Evan El is, “Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America, Caribbean a PR Coup for China,” National
Defense, July 12, 2021. , July 12, 2021.
Robbie Gramer, “U.S. Blunts China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America, The Biden Robbie Gramer, “U.S. Blunts China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America, The Biden
Administration Ships Mil ions of Vaccines to the Region As Its Public Health Crisis Worsens,Administration Ships Mil ions of Vaccines to the Region As Its Public Health Crisis Worsens, ” ”
Foreign Policy, July 9, 2021. , July 9, 2021.
Alexey Kovalev, “The Shocking Enormity of Russia’s Botched Pandemic Response, A Massive Alexey Kovalev, “The Shocking Enormity of Russia’s Botched Pandemic Response, A Massive
Third Wave Is Spreading Unchecked, Anti-vaxxers Are Rampant, and the Kremlin’s Vaccine Third Wave Is Spreading Unchecked, Anti-vaxxers Are Rampant, and the Kremlin’s Vaccine
Diplomacy has failed,” Diplomacy has failed,” Foreign Policy, July 5, 2021. , July 5, 2021.
Tyler Durden, “How China Became The Big Winner Of The COVID Era,” Tyler Durden, “How China Became The Big Winner Of The COVID Era,” ZeroHedge, July 3, , July 3,
2021. 2021.
Sinikukka Saari, Sinikukka Saari, Russia’s Corona Diplomacy and Geoeconomic Competition, A Sputnik Moment?
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, July 2021, 8 pp. Finnish Institute of International Affairs, July 2021, 8 pp.
Rintaro Hosokawa, “Vaccines and Rifts Dominate First G-20 Ministers Meeting in 2 Years,” Rintaro Hosokawa, “Vaccines and Rifts Dominate First G-20 Ministers Meeting in 2 Years,”
Chinese FM Cal s on Countries to Stop ‘Export Restrictions and Excessive Hoarding,’” Chinese FM Cal s on Countries to Stop ‘Export Restrictions and Excessive Hoarding,’” Nikkei
Asia, June 30, 2021. , June 30, 2021.
Shaun Tandon and Gildas Le Roux (Agence France-Presse), “US Urges Covid Cooperation at Shaun Tandon and Gildas Le Roux (Agence France-Presse), “US Urges Covid Cooperation at
G20 as China Critical,” G20 as China Critical,” Yahoo News, June 29, 2021. , June 29, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
21

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Koji Sugimoto and George Yin, “With Vaccine Diplomacy to Taiwan, U.S. and Japan Steal March Koji Sugimoto and George Yin, “With Vaccine Diplomacy to Taiwan, U.S. and Japan Steal March
on China, Vaccine Diplomacy Is Not Just About Winning ‘Hearts and Minds’ but Also on China, Vaccine Diplomacy Is Not Just About Winning ‘Hearts and Minds’ but Also
Realpolitik,” ,” National Interest, June 28, 2021. , June 28, 2021.
Samuel Ramani, “With Sputnik V, Russia Shot Itself in the Foot, High Prices, Delayed Deliveries, Samuel Ramani, “With Sputnik V, Russia Shot Itself in the Foot, High Prices, Delayed Deliveries,
and Questions About Efficacy Raise Suspicions about Russia’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Africa,” and Questions About Efficacy Raise Suspicions about Russia’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Africa,”
Foreign Policy, June 24, 2021. , June 24, 2021.
Reuben Johnson, “COVID, Hacking, and Spying Helped China Develop a New Stealth Fighter in Reuben Johnson, “COVID, Hacking, and Spying Helped China Develop a New Stealth Fighter in
Record Time, In the West, the Pandemic Put the Defense Industry on Hold. In China, the Military Record Time, In the West, the Pandemic Put the Defense Industry on Hold. In China, the Military
Used the Time to Make Big Advances,” Used the Time to Make Big Advances,” Bulwark, June 23, 2021. , June 23, 2021.
Deborah Seligsohn, “Demands for a Lab Leak Investigation Are a Dangerous Distraction, U.S.- Deborah Seligsohn, “Demands for a Lab Leak Investigation Are a Dangerous Distraction, U.S.-
China Cooperation Is Vital for Global Health Efforts,” China Cooperation Is Vital for Global Health Efforts,” Foreign Policy, June 18, 2021. , June 18, 2021.
Josh Rogin, “To Push Back Against Chinese Aggression, Give Taiwan Vaccines,” Josh Rogin, “To Push Back Against Chinese Aggression, Give Taiwan Vaccines,” Washington
Post, June 17 (updated June 25), 2021. , June 17 (updated June 25), 2021.
Niharika Mandhana and Sha Hua, “China Steps Into Covid-19 Vaccine Void in Asia’s Developing Niharika Mandhana and Sha Hua, “China Steps Into Covid-19 Vaccine Void in Asia’s Developing
Nations, Shots Developed by Chinese Companies Have Been a Conspicuous Part of the Rollouts Nations, Shots Developed by Chinese Companies Have Been a Conspicuous Part of the Rollouts
in the First Half of 2021, Helping Beijing Strengthen Regional Ties,” in the First Half of 2021, Helping Beijing Strengthen Regional Ties,” New York Times, June 16, , June 16,
2021. 2021.
Oliver Stuenkel, “Vaccine Diplomacy Boosts China’s Standing in Latin America, Beijing Has Oliver Stuenkel, “Vaccine Diplomacy Boosts China’s Standing in Latin America, Beijing Has
Increased Its Leverage in the Region—but Washington Can Stil Stage a Comeback,” Increased Its Leverage in the Region—but Washington Can Stil Stage a Comeback,” Foreign
Policy, June 11, 2021. , June 11, 2021.
Jack Detsch, “U.S.-China Spat Over Taiwan Extends to Vaccine Diplomacy, The United States Is Jack Detsch, “U.S.-China Spat Over Taiwan Extends to Vaccine Diplomacy, The United States Is
Providing Hundreds of Thousands of Vaccines Right in China’s Front Yard,” Providing Hundreds of Thousands of Vaccines Right in China’s Front Yard,” Foreign Policy, June , June
11, 2021. 11, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 23 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Matthew Dalton, “France Suspects Russian Role in Campaign to Discredit Pfizer Vaccine, Matthew Dalton, “France Suspects Russian Role in Campaign to Discredit Pfizer Vaccine,
Several French Bloggers Said They Received Emails Offering to Pay for Social-Media Videos Several French Bloggers Said They Received Emails Offering to Pay for Social-Media Videos
Criticizing the Covid-19 Vaccine,” Criticizing the Covid-19 Vaccine,” Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2021. , May 25, 2021.
Dan De Luce, “China is Using Vaccines to Push Its Agenda in Latin America, and the U.S. Is Dan De Luce, “China is Using Vaccines to Push Its Agenda in Latin America, and the U.S. Is
Behind the Curve, Experts Say, Latin American Officials Say China Has Pushed Their Countries Behind the Curve, Experts Say, Latin American Officials Say China Has Pushed Their Countries
to Cut Ties with Taiwan in Return for Badly Needed Covid-19 Vaccines,” to Cut Ties with Taiwan in Return for Badly Needed Covid-19 Vaccines,” NBC News, May 23, , May 23,
2021. 2021.
Michael Martina, “U.S. Says Condemns Political Use of Vaccines after China-Taiwan Tussle,” Michael Martina, “U.S. Says Condemns Political Use of Vaccines after China-Taiwan Tussle,”
Reuters, May 14, 2021. , May 14, 2021.
Ben Westcott, “China and Russia Want to Vaccinate the Developing World Before the West. It’s Ben Westcott, “China and Russia Want to Vaccinate the Developing World Before the West. It’s
Brought Them Closer Than Ever,” Brought Them Closer Than Ever,” CNN, May 11, 2021. , May 11, 2021.
Meia Nouwens, Meia Nouwens, The Evolving Nature of China’s Military Diplomacy: From Visits to Vaccines, ,
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), May 2021, 15 pp. (Posted online May 10, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), May 2021, 15 pp. (Posted online May 10,
2021.) 2021.)
Iain Marlow, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, and James Paton, “World Turns to China for Vaccines After Iain Marlow, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, and James Paton, “World Turns to China for Vaccines After
India, U.S. Stumble,” India, U.S. Stumble,” Bloomberg, May 6 (updated May 7), 2021. , May 6 (updated May 7), 2021.
Nicholas G. Evans and Mark Eccleston-Turner, “COVID-19 Vaccine Nationalism Wil Cost Lives Nicholas G. Evans and Mark Eccleston-Turner, “COVID-19 Vaccine Nationalism Wil Cost Lives
Worldwide,” Worldwide,” Slate, May 3, 2021. , May 3, 2021.
Krishna Kumar, “Why America Must Do More to Vaccinate the World’s Population,” Krishna Kumar, “Why America Must Do More to Vaccinate the World’s Population,” National
Interest, May 3, 2021. , May 3, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
22

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Andrew Higgins, “Russian Attempts to Expand Sputnik Vaccine Set Off Discord in Europe,” Andrew Higgins, “Russian Attempts to Expand Sputnik Vaccine Set Off Discord in Europe,” New
York Times, May 2 (updated May 5), 2021. , May 2 (updated May 5), 2021.
Miriam Matthews, Katya Migacheva, and Ryan Andrew Brown, Miriam Matthews, Katya Migacheva, and Ryan Andrew Brown, Superspreaders of Malign and
Subversive Information on COVID-19, Russian and Chinese Efforts Targeting the United States, ,
RAND, 2021, 82 pp. RAND, 2021, 82 pp.
Euronews, “EU Slams Russia and China for Western Vaccines Disinformation Campaign,” Euronews, “EU Slams Russia and China for Western Vaccines Disinformation Campaign,”
Euronews, April 29, 2021. s, April 29, 2021.
Robin Emmott, “Russia, China sow disinformation to undermine trust in Western vaccines: EU,” Robin Emmott, “Russia, China sow disinformation to undermine trust in Western vaccines: EU,”
Reuters, April 28, 2021. , April 28, 2021.
Akhil Ramesh, “On Vaccines, Globalists Are Nationalists and Nationalists Are Gobalists,” Akhil Ramesh, “On Vaccines, Globalists Are Nationalists and Nationalists Are Gobalists,” The
Hill, April 27, 2021. , April 27, 2021.
Josh Rogin, “The United States Can’t Ignore China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America,” Josh Rogin, “The United States Can’t Ignore China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America,”
Washington Post, April 22, 2021. , April 22, 2021.
Georgia Leatherdale-Gilholy, “Could India’s Vaccine Diplomacy Displace China?” Georgia Leatherdale-Gilholy, “Could India’s Vaccine Diplomacy Displace China?” National
Interest, April 20, 2021. , April 20, 2021.
Harsh V. Pant and Premesha Saha, “India’s Vaccine Diplomacy Reaches Taiwan,” Harsh V. Pant and Premesha Saha, “India’s Vaccine Diplomacy Reaches Taiwan,” National
Interest, April 20, 2021. , April 20, 2021.
Hal Brands, “America’s Come-From-Behind Pandemic Victory, China Was the Global Winner of Hal Brands, “America’s Come-From-Behind Pandemic Victory, China Was the Global Winner of
the Coronavirus Disaster—Until the United States Beat the Odds,” the Coronavirus Disaster—Until the United States Beat the Odds,” Foreign Policy, April 16, , April 16,
2021. 2021.
Eckart Woertz and Roie Yel inek, “Vaccine Diplomacy in the MENA Region,” Middle East Eckart Woertz and Roie Yel inek, “Vaccine Diplomacy in the MENA Region,” Middle East
Institute, April 14, 2021. Institute, April 14, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 24 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Dalibor Rohac, “Sputnik V’s Biggest Legacy May Be Political Turmoil, In Eastern European Dalibor Rohac, “Sputnik V’s Biggest Legacy May Be Political Turmoil, In Eastern European
Countries That Have Accepted the Russian Vaccine, Destabilization Has Fol owed,” Countries That Have Accepted the Russian Vaccine, Destabilization Has Fol owed,” Foreign
Policy, April 14, 2021. , April 14, 2021.
Cecilia Yap and Andreo Calonzo, “Philippines Asks U.S. for Vaccine Help as China Tensions Cecilia Yap and Andreo Calonzo, “Philippines Asks U.S. for Vaccine Help as China Tensions
Grow,” Grow,” Bloomberg, April 11, 2021. , April 11, 2021.
Reuters Staff, “Taiwan Says China Uses COVID-19 Vaccines to Press Paraguay to Break Ties,” Reuters Staff, “Taiwan Says China Uses COVID-19 Vaccines to Press Paraguay to Break Ties,”
Reuters, April 7, 2021. (See also Bil Bostock, “Taiwan Accused China of Trying to Bribe , April 7, 2021. (See also Bil Bostock, “Taiwan Accused China of Trying to Bribe
Paraguay with COVID-19 Vaccines to Make It Stop Recognizing Taiwan,” Paraguay with COVID-19 Vaccines to Make It Stop Recognizing Taiwan,” Business Insider, ,
April 7, 2021; April 7, 2021; Agence France-Presse, “Taiwan Accuses Beijing of Luring Paraguay with , “Taiwan Accuses Beijing of Luring Paraguay with
‘Vaccine Diplomacy,” ‘Vaccine Diplomacy,” France 24, April 7, 2021; BBC, “Taiwan Accuses China of ‘Vaccine , April 7, 2021; BBC, “Taiwan Accuses China of ‘Vaccine
Diplomacy’ in Paraguay,” Diplomacy’ in Paraguay,” BBC, April 7, 2021.) , April 7, 2021.)
Reuters Staff, “Taiwan Says India Helped Paraguay Get Vaccines After China Pressure,” Reuters Staff, “Taiwan Says India Helped Paraguay Get Vaccines After China Pressure,” Reuters, ,
April 7, 2021. April 7, 2021.
Luke McGee, “Europe Is Torn Over Whether to Take Putin’s Help on Vaccines,” Luke McGee, “Europe Is Torn Over Whether to Take Putin’s Help on Vaccines,” CNN, April 3, , April 3,
2021. 2021.
Georgi Kantchev and Laurence Norman, “With EU’s Covid-19 Vaccine Drive in Disarray, Russia Georgi Kantchev and Laurence Norman, “With EU’s Covid-19 Vaccine Drive in Disarray, Russia
Sees an Opening, Despite Tensions with Moscow, Some EU Leaders Back the Sputnik V Shot, Sees an Opening, Despite Tensions with Moscow, Some EU Leaders Back the Sputnik V Shot,
Which Could Offer Kremlin a Soft Power Coup,” Which Could Offer Kremlin a Soft Power Coup,” Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2021. , April 2, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
23

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Tim Gosling, “Russia and China Are Exploiting Europe’s Vaccine Shortfal s, Slovakia’s Prime Tim Gosling, “Russia and China Are Exploiting Europe’s Vaccine Shortfal s, Slovakia’s Prime
Minister Has Resigned Over a Secret Delivery of Moscow’s Sputnik V as Brussels Struggles to Minister Has Resigned Over a Secret Delivery of Moscow’s Sputnik V as Brussels Struggles to
Keep the EU United,” Keep the EU United,” Foreign Policy, March 31, 2021. , March 31, 2021.
Yasmeen Serhan, “Here’s How Russia and China Are Helping the U.S., Beijing and Moscow Are Yasmeen Serhan, “Here’s How Russia and China Are Helping the U.S., Beijing and Moscow Are
Fil ing the Vaccine Gap That Wealthy Countries Helped Create,” Fil ing the Vaccine Gap That Wealthy Countries Helped Create,” Atlantic, March 30, 2021. , March 30, 2021.
Hal Brands, “America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy, China Squandered Its Early Hal Brands, “America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy, China Squandered Its Early
Advantages, and Now the U.S. Government and Drug Makers Are Leading a Second-Half Advantages, and Now the U.S. Government and Drug Makers Are Leading a Second-Half
Comeback,” Comeback,” Bloomberg, March 23, 2021. , March 23, 2021.
Erik Brattberg, “Middle Power Diplomacy in an Age of US-China Tensions,” Erik Brattberg, “Middle Power Diplomacy in an Age of US-China Tensions,” Washington
Quarterly, Spring 202: 219-238. (Published online March 23, 2021.) , Spring 202: 219-238. (Published online March 23, 2021.)
Otto Lanzavecchia, “Old Friends in Italy Join Russia’s Vaccine Offensive,” Center for European Otto Lanzavecchia, “Old Friends in Italy Join Russia’s Vaccine Offensive,” Center for European
Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 19, 2021. Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 19, 2021.
Sadanand Dhume, “India Beats China at Vaccine Diplomacy, But New Delhi’s Massive Success Sadanand Dhume, “India Beats China at Vaccine Diplomacy, But New Delhi’s Massive Success
Is a Function of Collaboration with the West, Not ‘Self-Reliance,’” Is a Function of Collaboration with the West, Not ‘Self-Reliance,’” Wall Street Journal, March , March
18, 2021. 18, 2021.
Austin Bay, “On Point: Russia Joins China's Wuhan Virus Lie Campaign,” Strategy Page, March Austin Bay, “On Point: Russia Joins China's Wuhan Virus Lie Campaign,” Strategy Page, March
17, 2021. 17, 2021.
John Bowden, “Kremlin: Pressure on Countries to Refuse Russian COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Quite John Bowden, “Kremlin: Pressure on Countries to Refuse Russian COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Quite
Unprecedented,’” Unprecedented,’” The Hill, March 16, 2021. , March 16, 2021.
John Grady, “SOUTHCOM’s Fal er: China Used Pandemic to Expand ‘Corrosive, Insidious John Grady, “SOUTHCOM’s Fal er: China Used Pandemic to Expand ‘Corrosive, Insidious
Influence’ in Central, South America, U.S. Influence ‘Eroding,’” Influence’ in Central, South America, U.S. Influence ‘Eroding,’” USNI News, March 16 (updated , March 16 (updated
March 17), 2021. March 17), 2021.
Jeff Pao, “China, Quad Slug It Out in Vaccine Diplomacy Fight, Beijing and Washington Use Jeff Pao, “China, Quad Slug It Out in Vaccine Diplomacy Fight, Beijing and Washington Use
Low-Cost Vaccines to Win Hearts and Minds in Poor and Under-Developed Countries,” Low-Cost Vaccines to Win Hearts and Minds in Poor and Under-Developed Countries,” Asia
Times, March 16, 2021. , March 16, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 25 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Daniele Carminati, “The Ups and Downs of Soft Power in the Asia-Pacific, The Coronavirus Daniele Carminati, “The Ups and Downs of Soft Power in the Asia-Pacific, The Coronavirus
Pandemic Has Shifted the Relative ‘Soft power’ Standing of Leading Powers,” Pandemic Has Shifted the Relative ‘Soft power’ Standing of Leading Powers,” Diplomat, March , March
15, 2021. 15, 2021.
Ernesto Londoño and Letícia Casado, “Brazil Needs Vaccines. China Is Benefiting, China Is a Ernesto Londoño and Letícia Casado, “Brazil Needs Vaccines. China Is Benefiting, China Is a
Major Supplier of Coronavirus Vaccine, Giving It Enormous Leverage in Pandemic-Ravaged Major Supplier of Coronavirus Vaccine, Giving It Enormous Leverage in Pandemic-Ravaged
Nations. Brazil, Recently Hostile to the Chinese Company Huawei, Has Suddenly Changed Its Nations. Brazil, Recently Hostile to the Chinese Company Huawei, Has Suddenly Changed Its
Stance,” Stance,” New York Times, March 15, 2021. , March 15, 2021.
Edward Lucas, Jake Morris, and Corina Rebegea, Edward Lucas, Jake Morris, and Corina Rebegea, Information Bedlam: Russian and Chinese
Information Operations During Covid-19, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), 2021, 20 , Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), 2021, 20
pp. (Posted online March 15, 2021.) pp. (Posted online March 15, 2021.)
Eric Bel man, “U.S. Taps Indian Covid-19 Vaccine Production Prowess to Inoculate Indo- Eric Bel man, “U.S. Taps Indian Covid-19 Vaccine Production Prowess to Inoculate Indo-
Pacific,” Pacific,” Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2021. , March 14, 2021.
Nathaniel Weixel, “US Comes under Pressure to Share Vaccines with Rest of World,” Nathaniel Weixel, “US Comes under Pressure to Share Vaccines with Rest of World,” The Hill, ,
March 14, 2021. March 14, 2021.
David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, and Jeff Mason, “U.S., India, Japan and Australia Counter David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, and Jeff Mason, “U.S., India, Japan and Australia Counter
China with Bil ion-Dose Vaccine Pact,” China with Bil ion-Dose Vaccine Pact,” Reuters, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
24

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Michael J. Green, “Quad Summit’s Vaccine Deal Is Biden’s Bold First Move in Asia, It’s a Smart Michael J. Green, “Quad Summit’s Vaccine Deal Is Biden’s Bold First Move in Asia, It’s a Smart
Step to Counter China, but the Next Ones Won’t Be as Easy,” Step to Counter China, but the Next Ones Won’t Be as Easy,” Foreign Policy, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
Demetri Sevastopulo, Amy Kazmin, and Jamie Smyth, “US and Asia Al ies Launch Major Demetri Sevastopulo, Amy Kazmin, and Jamie Smyth, “US and Asia Al ies Launch Major
Vaccine Drive to Counter China, The 1bn Covid Jabs Wil be Funded by US and Japan, Made in Vaccine Drive to Counter China, The 1bn Covid Jabs Wil be Funded by US and Japan, Made in
India and Distributed by Australia,” India and Distributed by Australia,” Financial Times, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
David Wainer and Patrick Gil espie, “It’s ‘America First’ on Vaccines as Russia, China Fil Gap,” David Wainer and Patrick Gil espie, “It’s ‘America First’ on Vaccines as Russia, China Fil Gap,”
Bloomberg, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
Anne Gearan and Miriam Berger, “Biden Faces Pressure to Distribute Vaccines Worldwide, Anne Gearan and Miriam Berger, “Biden Faces Pressure to Distribute Vaccines Worldwide,
While Americans Stil Need Them at Home,” While Americans Stil Need Them at Home,” Washington Post, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Yanzhong Huang, “Vaccine Diplomacy Is Paying Off for China, Beijing Hasn’t Won the Soft- Yanzhong Huang, “Vaccine Diplomacy Is Paying Off for China, Beijing Hasn’t Won the Soft-
Power Stakes, but It Has an Early Lead,” Power Stakes, but It Has an Early Lead,” Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Philip Blenkinsop, “Rich, Developing Nations Wrangle over COVID Vaccine Patents,” Philip Blenkinsop, “Rich, Developing Nations Wrangle over COVID Vaccine Patents,” Reuters, ,
March 10, 2021. March 10, 2021.
Dinko Hanaan Dinko, “How ‘Mask Diplomacy’ Rescued China's Image in Africa, While Beijing Dinko Hanaan Dinko, “How ‘Mask Diplomacy’ Rescued China's Image in Africa, While Beijing
Was Nimbly Pivoting, the U.S. Continued to Let Its Relationships Wither,” Was Nimbly Pivoting, the U.S. Continued to Let Its Relationships Wither,” Defense One, March , March
10, 2021. 10, 2021.
Joel Gehrke, “US Eager to Beat China at Vaccine Diplomacy Game,” Joel Gehrke, “US Eager to Beat China at Vaccine Diplomacy Game,” Washington Examiner, ,
March 10, 2021. March 10, 2021.
Rafi Khetab, “How America Can Outcompete China in an Age of Global Pandemics, Managing Rafi Khetab, “How America Can Outcompete China in an Age of Global Pandemics, Managing
Pandemics Rightly Matters a Great Deal in This Era of Great Power Competition,” Pandemics Rightly Matters a Great Deal in This Era of Great Power Competition,” National
Interest, March 10, 2021. , March 10, 2021.
Yomiuri Shimbun, “Quad to Create Framework for Providing Vaccines to Developing Countries,” Yomiuri Shimbun, “Quad to Create Framework for Providing Vaccines to Developing Countries,”
Japan News, March 10, 2021. , March 10, 2021.
Henry Foy, “Covid Vaccine Diplomacy Is a Dilemma for Foreign Embassies in Russia, Sputnik V Henry Foy, “Covid Vaccine Diplomacy Is a Dilemma for Foreign Embassies in Russia, Sputnik V
Is One of the Most Effective Jabs but the UK And US Are Flying in Their Own Supplies,” Is One of the Most Effective Jabs but the UK And US Are Flying in Their Own Supplies,”
Financial Times, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 26 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Prabhjote Gil , “India Is Asking the QUAD for Money to Boost Vaccine Production and Counter Prabhjote Gil , “India Is Asking the QUAD for Money to Boost Vaccine Production and Counter
China’s Moves on the Global Stage,” China’s Moves on the Global Stage,” Business Insider India, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Deirdre Shesgreen, “‘Russia Is Up to Its Old Tricks’: Biden Battling COVID-19 Vaccine Deirdre Shesgreen, “‘Russia Is Up to Its Old Tricks’: Biden Battling COVID-19 Vaccine
Disinformation Campaign,” Disinformation Campaign,” USA Today, March 8, 2021. , March 8, 2021.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Ray Takeyh, “Who Came Out On Top from the 2020 Coronavirus Year? Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Ray Takeyh, “Who Came Out On Top from the 2020 Coronavirus Year?
Predictions that Russia or China Would Take the Lead in the Fight against the Pandemic Have Predictions that Russia or China Would Take the Lead in the Fight against the Pandemic Have
Not Panned Out. Instead, Countries Around the World Are Clamoring for Forging New Trade, Not Panned Out. Instead, Countries Around the World Are Clamoring for Forging New Trade,
Technological, and Health Al iances with the United States,” Technological, and Health Al iances with the United States,” National Interest, March 7, 2021. , March 7, 2021.
Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged
Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” National
Interest, March 6, 2021. , March 6, 2021.
Lil ian Posner, “The Controversy Behind Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine,” Lil ian Posner, “The Controversy Behind Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine,” National Interest, March , March
6, 2021. 6, 2021.
Josh Rogin, “How Covid Hastened the Decline and Fal of the U.S.-China Relationship,” Josh Rogin, “How Covid Hastened the Decline and Fal of the U.S.-China Relationship,”
Washington Post, March 4, 2021. , March 4, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
25

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Krishna N. Das, “Chinese Hackers Target Indian Vaccine Makers SII, Bharat Biotech, Says Krishna N. Das, “Chinese Hackers Target Indian Vaccine Makers SII, Bharat Biotech, Says
Security Firm,” Security Firm,” Reuters, March 1, 2021. , March 1, 2021.
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy
Justin Esarey, “The Myth That Democracies Bungled the Pandemic, The Argument that Authoritarian Governments Outperform Democracies in a Crisis Has Found New Life During the Coronavirus Pandemic. The Data Tel a Different Story,” Atlantic, October 4, 2021. Jill Lawless, “Authoritarianism Advances as World Battles the Pandemic,” Jill Lawless, “Authoritarianism Advances as World Battles the Pandemic,” Associated Press, July , July
15, 2021. 15, 2021.
Parag Khanna, “The Pandemic Proves Only Technocrats Can Save Us, Populist Politicians Love Parag Khanna, “The Pandemic Proves Only Technocrats Can Save Us, Populist Politicians Love
to Belittle Experts, but When It’s a Matter of Life and Death, the Precautionary Principle and to Belittle Experts, but When It’s a Matter of Life and Death, the Precautionary Principle and
Expertise Are What Counts,” Expertise Are What Counts,” Foreign Policy, June 24, 2021. , June 24, 2021.
Uri Friedman, “COVID-19 Lays Bare the Price of Populism, A Raging Outbreak in Brazil Uri Friedman, “COVID-19 Lays Bare the Price of Populism, A Raging Outbreak in Brazil
Threatens Gains Against the Virus,” Threatens Gains Against the Virus,” Atlantic, May 9, 2021. , May 9, 2021.
Camil e Elemia, “At Least 10 Asia Pacific Gov’ts Use COVID-19 for Censorship, Camil e Elemia, “At Least 10 Asia Pacific Gov’ts Use COVID-19 for Censorship,
Disinformation,” Disinformation,” Rappler, April 20, 2021. , April 20, 2021.
R. Evan El is, R. Evan El is, Populism, China, and Covid-19, Latin America’s New Perfect Storm, Center for , Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 2021, 6 pp. (Posted online April 20, 2021.) Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 2021, 6 pp. (Posted online April 20, 2021.)
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Governments In Europe, Central Asia Used Pandemic To Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Governments In Europe, Central Asia Used Pandemic To
Clamp Down On Human Rights, Amnesty Says,” Clamp Down On Human Rights, Amnesty Says,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 7, , April 7,
2021. 2021.
Elian Peltier, “Laws Used to Fight Pandemic Are in Some Cases Weakening Democracies, Report Elian Peltier, “Laws Used to Fight Pandemic Are in Some Cases Weakening Democracies, Report
Says,” Says,” New York Times, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged
Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” National
Interest, March 6, 2021. , March 6, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 27 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Joshua Kurlantzick, Joshua Kurlantzick, COVID-19 and Its Effect on Inequality and Democracy, A Study of Five
Large Democracies, Council on Foreign Relations, March 2021, 36 pp. , Council on Foreign Relations, March 2021, 36 pp.
Economist, “Global Democracy Has a Very Bad Year, The Pandemic Caused an Unprecedented Economist, “Global Democracy Has a Very Bad Year, The Pandemic Caused an Unprecedented
Rollback of Democratic Freedoms in 2020,” Rollback of Democratic Freedoms in 2020,” Economist, February 2, 2021. , February 2, 2021.
Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and
Governmental Stability
Carnegie Civic Research Network, Civil Society and the Global Pandemic: Building Back Different? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 2021, 19 pp. (Posted online September 30, 2021.) Peter Landers, Mike Cherney, and Jon Emont, “Covid-19 Delta Infections Trigger Political Side Effects in Asia, Voters Are Directing Their Dissatisfaction at Leaders They Believe Responded Too Slowly to the Variant’s Spread,” Wall Street Journal, August 26, 2021. Joe Parkin Daniels, “The Pandemic’s Legacy Wil Spur New Protests in Latin America, Increased Joe Parkin Daniels, “The Pandemic’s Legacy Wil Spur New Protests in Latin America, Increased
Economic Inequality Has Only Added to Widespread Discontent,” Economic Inequality Has Only Added to Widespread Discontent,” Foreign Policy, July 29, 2021. , July 29, 2021.
Elise Labott, “Get Ready for a Spike in Global Unrest, COVID-19 Threatens to Accelerate Elise Labott, “Get Ready for a Spike in Global Unrest, COVID-19 Threatens to Accelerate
Longer-Term Rebel ion, Violence, and Political Upheaval,” Longer-Term Rebel ion, Violence, and Political Upheaval,” Foreign Policy, July 22, 2021. , July 22, 2021.
Paolo Gerbaudo, “Big Government Is Back, The Pandemic Has Discredited Decades of Free Paolo Gerbaudo, “Big Government Is Back, The Pandemic Has Discredited Decades of Free
Market Orthodoxy—But Not Al Visions of State Interventionism Are Progressive,” Market Orthodoxy—But Not Al Visions of State Interventionism Are Progressive,” Foreign
Policy, February 13, 2021. , February 13, 2021.
Emeline Wuilbercq, “Pandemic Woes Seen Swel ing Global Ranks of Child Soldiers,” Emeline Wuilbercq, “Pandemic Woes Seen Swel ing Global Ranks of Child Soldiers,” Reuters, ,
February 12, 2021. February 12, 2021.
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Alexander Vil egas, Anthony Faiola, and Lesley Wroughton, “As Spending Climbs and Revenue Alexander Vil egas, Anthony Faiola, and Lesley Wroughton, “As Spending Climbs and Revenue
Fal s, the Coronavirus Forces a Global Reckoning, A Rising ‘Debt Tsunami’ Threatens Even Fal s, the Coronavirus Forces a Global Reckoning, A Rising ‘Debt Tsunami’ Threatens Even
Stable, Peaceful Middle-Income Countries,” Stable, Peaceful Middle-Income Countries,” Washington Post, January 10, 2021. , January 10, 2021.
Edoardo Campanel a, “The Pandemic Remade the Chinese Economy, Other Countries Should Edoardo Campanel a, “The Pandemic Remade the Chinese Economy, Other Countries Should
Prepare Now for Their Own Reformations,” Prepare Now for Their Own Reformations,” Foreign Policy, January 4, 2021. , January 4, 2021.
Jarrett Blanc, Frances Z. Brown, and Benjamin Press, “Conflict Zones in the Time of Jarrett Blanc, Frances Z. Brown, and Benjamin Press, “Conflict Zones in the Time of
Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
December 17, 2020. December 17, 2020.
Joaquín Cottani, Joaquín Cottani, The Effects of Covid-19 on Latin America’s Economy, Center for Strategic and , Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), November 2020, 9 pp. International Studies (CSIS), November 2020, 9 pp.
Tomasz Mickiewicz, Jun Du, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, “Coronavirus: Individualistic Societies Tomasz Mickiewicz, Jun Du, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, “Coronavirus: Individualistic Societies
Might Be Doing Worse, the Individualism Hypothesis Is Worth Investigating Further,” Might Be Doing Worse, the Individualism Hypothesis Is Worth Investigating Further,” National
Interest, October 14, 2020. , October 14, 2020.
Clare Duffy, “The Pandemic Could Push 150 Mil ion More People Worldwide into ‘Extreme Clare Duffy, “The Pandemic Could Push 150 Mil ion More People Worldwide into ‘Extreme
Poverty,’” Poverty,’” CNN Business, October 7, 2020. , October 7, 2020.
World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy
Zack Beauchamp, “‘Neoliberalism Has Real y Ruptured’: Adam Tooze on the Legacy of 2020, The Global Aftershocks of Covid-19 and the Economic Crisis It Caused, Explained,” Vox, September 9, 2021. Congressional Research Service 28 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Editorial Board, “China’s Changing Role in the World Economy, Delta Variant and Supply Chain Problems Are Slowing the Global Recovery,” Economist, September 1, 2021. Peter S. Goodman and Keith Bradsher, “The World Is Stil Short of Everything. Get Used to It. Pandemic-Related Product Shortages—from Computer Chips to Construction Materials—Were Supposed to Be Resolved by Now. Instead, the World Has Gained a Lesson in the Ripple Effects of Disruption,” New York Times, August 30 (updated September 23), 2021. Emily Rauhala, Anu Narayanswamy, Youjin Shin, and Júlia Ledur, “How the Pandemic Set Back Women’s Progress in the Global Workforce,” Washington Post, August 28, 2021. Jayati Ghosh,, “Specter of Stagflation Hangs Over Emerging Markets, Rich Countries’ Pandemic Jayati Ghosh,, “Specter of Stagflation Hangs Over Emerging Markets, Rich Countries’ Pandemic
Policies Are Sucking Growth and Capital Out of the Developing World,” Policies Are Sucking Growth and Capital Out of the Developing World,” Foreign Policy, August , August
5, 2021. 5, 2021.
Gabriele Steinhauser and Drew Hinshaw, “India’s Covid-19 Agonies Highlight Growing Rich- Gabriele Steinhauser and Drew Hinshaw, “India’s Covid-19 Agonies Highlight Growing Rich-
Poor Gap in Vaccinations,” Poor Gap in Vaccinations,” Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2021. , April 27, 2021.
James K. Galbraith, “The Death of Neoliberalism Is Greatly Exaggerated, The West’s Economic James K. Galbraith, “The Death of Neoliberalism Is Greatly Exaggerated, The West’s Economic
Orthodoxy of the Past 40 Years Has Been Shaken by the Pandemic—But the Fight Isn’t Nearly Orthodoxy of the Past 40 Years Has Been Shaken by the Pandemic—But the Fight Isn’t Nearly
Over Yet,” Over Yet,” Foreign Policy, April 6, 2021. , April 6, 2021.
Nita Bhal a, “Africans Slam Rich Nations For Blocking Access To Generic COVID Vaccines,” Nita Bhal a, “Africans Slam Rich Nations For Blocking Access To Generic COVID Vaccines,”
Reuters, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Colm Quinn, “Rich vs. Poor (Again) at WTO, Months after India and South Africa Made Their Colm Quinn, “Rich vs. Poor (Again) at WTO, Months after India and South Africa Made Their
Initial Proposal, the World Trade Organization Has Another Chance to Waive Intel ectual Initial Proposal, the World Trade Organization Has Another Chance to Waive Intel ectual
Property Rights for Covid-19 Vaccines and Treatments,” Property Rights for Covid-19 Vaccines and Treatments,” Foreign Policy, March 10, 2021. , March 10, 2021.
Scott Lincicome, “The Pandemic Does Not Demand Government Micromanagement of Global Scott Lincicome, “The Pandemic Does Not Demand Government Micromanagement of Global
Supply Chains,” Cato Institute, February 24, 2021. Supply Chains,” Cato Institute, February 24, 2021.
Fatima Hassan, “Don’t Let Drug Companies Create a System of Vaccine Apartheid, To Avoid Fatima Hassan, “Don’t Let Drug Companies Create a System of Vaccine Apartheid, To Avoid
Repeating the Pitfal s of the HIV/AIDS Crisis, Governments and the WTO Must Make COVID-Repeating the Pitfal s of the HIV/AIDS Crisis, Governments and the WTO Must Make COVID-
19 Vaccination a Public Good by Temporarily Waiving Intel ectual Property Rights and 19 Vaccination a Public Good by Temporarily Waiving Intel ectual Property Rights and
Compel ing Emergency Production,” Compel ing Emergency Production,” Foreign Policy, February 23, 2021. , February 23, 2021.
Peter S. Goodman, “One Vaccine Side Effect: Global Economic Inequality, As Covid Inoculations Peter S. Goodman, “One Vaccine Side Effect: Global Economic Inequality, As Covid Inoculations
Begin, the Economic Downturn Stands to be Reversed, but Developing Countries Are at Risk of Begin, the Economic Downturn Stands to be Reversed, but Developing Countries Are at Risk of
Being Left Behind,” Being Left Behind,” New York Times, December 25, 2020. , December 25, 2020.
Michael Shields, “Pandemic Speeds Labour Shift from Humans to Robots, WEF Survey Finds,” Michael Shields, “Pandemic Speeds Labour Shift from Humans to Robots, WEF Survey Finds,”
Reuters, October 20, 2020. , October 20, 2020.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Scott Lincicome, “Why a Successful COVID-19 Vaccine Depends on Globalization, Each of the Scott Lincicome, “Why a Successful COVID-19 Vaccine Depends on Globalization, Each of the
Vaccines that the United States Has Secured Appears to be Heavily Reliant on Globalization to Vaccines that the United States Has Secured Appears to be Heavily Reliant on Globalization to
Produce the Final Doses at the Absolute Maximum Speed and Scale,” Produce the Final Doses at the Absolute Maximum Speed and Scale,” National Interest, October , October
16, 2020. 16, 2020.
Josh Zumbrun and Yuka Hayashi, “China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From Josh Zumbrun and Yuka Hayashi, “China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From
Pandemic, IMF Says,” Pandemic, IMF Says,” Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2020. , October 13, 2020.
Eric K. Hontz, “The Fate of Globalization in the Post-Coronavirus Era,” Eric K. Hontz, “The Fate of Globalization in the Post-Coronavirus Era,” National Interest, ,
September 12, 2020. September 12, 2020.
Niccolò Pisani, “Trump’s China ‘Decoupling’ and Coronavirus: Why 2020 Upheaval Won’t Kill Niccolò Pisani, “Trump’s China ‘Decoupling’ and Coronavirus: Why 2020 Upheaval Won’t Kill
Globalisation,” Globalisation,” The Conversation, September 9, 2020. , September 9, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 29 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart, “The Pandemic Depression, The Global Economy Wil Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart, “The Pandemic Depression, The Global Economy Wil
Never Be the Same,” Never Be the Same,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2020. , September/October 2020.
Anthony B. Kim, “Protectionism and the Pandemic Are Curtailing Global Trade. Policymakers Anthony B. Kim, “Protectionism and the Pandemic Are Curtailing Global Trade. Policymakers
Must Act Accordingly,” Heritage Foundation, August 5, 2020. Must Act Accordingly,” Heritage Foundation, August 5, 2020.
Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances
Amy Kazmin and Demetri Sevastopulo, “India’s Covid Calamity Exposes Weakest Link in US-Amy Kazmin and Demetri Sevastopulo, “India’s Covid Calamity Exposes Weakest Link in US-
Led ‘Quad’ Al iance, New Delhi Virus Response Undermines Its Coalition with America, Japan Led ‘Quad’ Al iance, New Delhi Virus Response Undermines Its Coalition with America, Japan
and Australia to Resist China,” and Australia to Resist China,” Financial Times, June 14, 2021. , June 14, 2021.
Michael Kugelman, “The U.S.-India Relationship Has a New Top Priority, The Indian Foreign Michael Kugelman, “The U.S.-India Relationship Has a New Top Priority, The Indian Foreign
Minister’s U.S. Visit Shows the Partners Are Primarily Focused on Tackling the Coronavirus—Minister’s U.S. Visit Shows the Partners Are Primarily Focused on Tackling the Coronavirus—
for Now,” for Now,” Foreign Policy, May 27, 2021. , May 27, 2021.
Tom Waldwyn and Fenel a McGerty, “How COVID-19 Has Impacted South China Sea Defense Tom Waldwyn and Fenel a McGerty, “How COVID-19 Has Impacted South China Sea Defense
Spending and Procurement,” Spending and Procurement,” Defense News, May 10, 2021. , May 10, 2021.
Mike Glenn, “COVID-19 Contributes to Jump in World’s Military Budgets: Report,” Mike Glenn, “COVID-19 Contributes to Jump in World’s Military Budgets: Report,” Washington
Times, April 26, 2021. , April 26, 2021.
Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, Sovereign Solidarity, France, the US, and Alliances in a
Post-Covid World, Atlantic Council, 2020 (released November 11, 2020), 28 pp. , Atlantic Council, 2020 (released November 11, 2020), 28 pp.
Pierre Morcos, Pierre Morcos, Toward a New “Lost Decade”? Covid-19 and Defense Spending in Europe, ,
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), October 2020, 7 pp. (Posted online October Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), October 2020, 7 pp. (Posted online October
15, 2020.) 15, 2020.)
Alice Bil on-Gal and, Alice Bil on-Gal and, COVID-19 and the Defence Policies of European States, NATO Defense , NATO Defense
College, October 2020, 4 pp. College, October 2020, 4 pp.
Claudia Major, Claudia Major, Catalyst or Crisis? COVID-19 and European Security, NATO Defense College, , NATO Defense College,
October 2020, 4 pp. October 2020, 4 pp.
Olivier Rittimann, Olivier Rittimann, NATO and the COVID-19 Emergency: Actions and Lessons, NATO Defense
College, September 2020, 4 pp. , September 2020, 4 pp.
European Union
Isaac Chotiner, “How the Pandemic Changed Europe, The historian Adam Tooze Discusses the Isaac Chotiner, “How the Pandemic Changed Europe, The historian Adam Tooze Discusses the
Vaccine Rollout and Shifting Politics in the E.U.,” Vaccine Rollout and Shifting Politics in the E.U.,” New Yorker, April 15, 2021. , April 15, 2021.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Steven Erlanger, “Vaccine ‘Fiasco’ Damages Europe’s Credibility, The European Union’s Failure Steven Erlanger, “Vaccine ‘Fiasco’ Damages Europe’s Credibility, The European Union’s Failure
to Secure Adequate Vaccine Supplies, Followed by an Export Ban, Has Dented the Reputation of to Secure Adequate Vaccine Supplies, Followed by an Export Ban, Has Dented the Reputation of
the Bloc’s Leaders. It May Also hurt their Ability to Act in Other Areas,” the Bloc’s Leaders. It May Also hurt their Ability to Act in Other Areas,” New York Times, April , April
2, 2021. 2, 2021.
Tim Gosling, “Russia and China Are Exploiting Europe’s Vaccine Shortfal s, Slovakia’s Prime Tim Gosling, “Russia and China Are Exploiting Europe’s Vaccine Shortfal s, Slovakia’s Prime
Minister Has Resigned Over a Secret Delivery of Moscow’s Sputnik V as Brussels Struggles to Minister Has Resigned Over a Secret Delivery of Moscow’s Sputnik V as Brussels Struggles to
Keep the EU United,” Keep the EU United,” Foreign Policy, March 31, 2021. , March 31, 2021.
Laurence Norman and Jenny Strasburg, “Vaccine Fight Between EU and U.K. Threatens to Laurence Norman and Jenny Strasburg, “Vaccine Fight Between EU and U.K. Threatens to
Escalate, Officials on Both Sides Are in Talks to Prevent Bans of Exports of Covid-19 Shots and Escalate, Officials on Both Sides Are in Talks to Prevent Bans of Exports of Covid-19 Shots and
Vaccination Supplies,” Vaccination Supplies,” Wall Street Journal, Updated March 22, 2021. , Updated March 22, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 30 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Caroline de Gruyter, “Europe Needed Borders. Coronavirus Built Them. The Pandemic Has the Caroline de Gruyter, “Europe Needed Borders. Coronavirus Built Them. The Pandemic Has the
Continent Increasingly Discussing Its Common Boundaries—and Common Identity,” Continent Increasingly Discussing Its Common Boundaries—and Common Identity,” Foreign
Policy, December 4, 2020. , December 4, 2020.
Colm Quinn, “Can Europe Come Together to Save Itself? A Quarrel over the EU Coronavirus Colm Quinn, “Can Europe Come Together to Save Itself? A Quarrel over the EU Coronavirus
Fund Threatens to Stal Economic Recovery Efforts,” Fund Threatens to Stal Economic Recovery Efforts,” Foreign Policy, November 19, 2020. cy, November 19, 2020.
Joseph de Weck and Elettra Ardissino, “The Pandemic Is Showing What the EU Is Good For,” Joseph de Weck and Elettra Ardissino, “The Pandemic Is Showing What the EU Is Good For,”
Foreign Policy, September 8, 2020. , September 8, 2020.
Adam Tooze, “It’s a New Europe—if You Can Keep It, The Continent Has Managed to Take a Adam Tooze, “It’s a New Europe—if You Can Keep It, The Continent Has Managed to Take a
Great Leap Forward—But There Stil Might Be a Crash Landing,” Great Leap Forward—But There Stil Might Be a Crash Landing,” Foreign Policy, August 7, , August 7,
2020. 2020.
Editorial Board, “The Pandemic Has Made Europe Stronger,” Editorial Board, “The Pandemic Has Made Europe Stronger,” Washington Post, July 28, 2020. , July 28, 2020.
Joseph de Weck, “Germany Is Final y Ready to Spend, In the Long Run, the COVID-19 Joseph de Weck, “Germany Is Final y Ready to Spend, In the Long Run, the COVID-19
Pandemic May Change Europe’s Economy for the Better,” Pandemic May Change Europe’s Economy for the Better,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2020. icy, June 22, 2020.
Patrick Donahue and Arne Delfs, “Merkel Cal s for Agreement on EU Fund Before Summer Patrick Donahue and Arne Delfs, “Merkel Cal s for Agreement on EU Fund Before Summer
Break,” Break,” Bloomberg, June 18, 2020. , June 18, 2020.
Desmond Lachman, “A Eurozone Economic Crisis Thanks to Coronavirus?” Desmond Lachman, “A Eurozone Economic Crisis Thanks to Coronavirus?” National Interest, ,
June 2, 2020. June 2, 2020.
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security
Josh Kerbel, “The US Talks A Lot About Strategic Complexity. Too Bad It’s Mostly Just Talk, Josh Kerbel, “The US Talks A Lot About Strategic Complexity. Too Bad It’s Mostly Just Talk,
The Pandemic Sidelined a National Security Community that Gives Only Lip Service to a Vital The Pandemic Sidelined a National Security Community that Gives Only Lip Service to a Vital
Concept,” Concept,” Defense One, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Susan B. Glasser, “What Does National Susan B. Glasser, “What Does National Security Even Mean Anymore, After January 6th and the Security Even Mean Anymore, After January 6th and the
Pandemic? Talking Threats, Foreign and Domestic, with Mark Mil ey, the Chairman of the Joint Pandemic? Talking Threats, Foreign and Domestic, with Mark Mil ey, the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff,” Chiefs of Staff,” New Yorker, March 4, 2021. , March 4, 2021.
Jacob Parakilas, “The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does, And Jacob Parakilas, “The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does, And
Science and Technology Wil Only Take Us So Far When It Comes to Future Threats, Science and Technology Wil Only Take Us So Far When It Comes to Future Threats,
Conventional or Otherwise,” Conventional or Otherwise,” Diplomat, December 23, 2020. , December 23, 2020.
Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Rebuilding America in the Post Trump Era, The Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Rebuilding America in the Post Trump Era, The
Trump Administration’s Woeful Response to Many Threats, but Especial y the Coronavirus Trump Administration’s Woeful Response to Many Threats, but Especial y the Coronavirus
Pandemic, Demonstrates that Dealing with Tomorrow’s Bioterror Threat Must be a National Pandemic, Demonstrates that Dealing with Tomorrow’s Bioterror Threat Must be a National
Security Priority,” Security Priority,” National Interest, December 18, 2020. , December 18, 2020.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Kevin Bilms, “Wil COVID Final y Force Us to Think Differently About National Security? The Kevin Bilms, “Wil COVID Final y Force Us to Think Differently About National Security? The
‘Softer’ Approaches of Irregular War Offer Outsized Benefits During Competition and Armed ‘Softer’ Approaches of Irregular War Offer Outsized Benefits During Competition and Armed
Conflict Alike,” Conflict Alike,” Defense One, December 15, 2020. , December 15, 2020.
Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel, “Coronavirus Pandemic Stands to Force Changes in Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel, “Coronavirus Pandemic Stands to Force Changes in
U.S. Spy Services, After Years of Underplaying Soft Threats Like Disease and Climate Change, U.S. Spy Services, After Years of Underplaying Soft Threats Like Disease and Climate Change,
National-Security Establishment Faces Cal s for a New Approach,” National-Security Establishment Faces Cal s for a New Approach,” Wall Street Journal, ,
November 22, 2020. November 22, 2020.
Uri Firedman, “The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power, In the COVID-19 Uri Firedman, “The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power, In the COVID-19
Era, a Country’s Strength Is Determined Not Only by Its Military and Economy, but Also by Its Era, a Country’s Strength Is Determined Not Only by Its Military and Economy, but Also by Its
Resilience,” Resilience,” Atlantic, November 15, 2020. , November 15, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 31 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Frank Hoffman, “National Security in the Post-Pandemic Era,” Frank Hoffman, “National Security in the Post-Pandemic Era,” Orbis, Winter 2021: 17-45. (The , Winter 2021: 17-45. (The
first page of the article carries an additional date of November 2020.) first page of the article carries an additional date of November 2020.)
Marigny Kirschke-Schwartz, “America Must Act To Avoid A Biotechnology Arms Race, the Marigny Kirschke-Schwartz, “America Must Act To Avoid A Biotechnology Arms Race, the
Covid-19 Pandemic Has Shown Us the Potential for a Biological Incident to Upend Global Covid-19 Pandemic Has Shown Us the Potential for a Biological Incident to Upend Global
Stability, and the Implications Are Sobering,” Stability, and the Implications Are Sobering,” National Interest, September 22, 2020. , September 22, 2020.
Calder Walton, “US Intel igence, the Coronavirus and the Age of Globalized Chal enges,” Belfer Calder Walton, “US Intel igence, the Coronavirus and the Age of Globalized Chal enges,” Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs, August 24, 2020. Center for Science and International Affairs, August 24, 2020.
U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations
Frank Hoffman, “U.S. Defense Strategy After The Pandemic,” Frank Hoffman, “U.S. Defense Strategy After The Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, April 20, 2021. , April 20, 2021.
Aaron Mehta, “After COVID, Are Bil ions in Biodefense Funds Needed to Deter US Aaron Mehta, “After COVID, Are Bil ions in Biodefense Funds Needed to Deter US
Adversaries?” Adversaries?” Defense News, April 9, 2021. , April 9, 2021.
America’s Strategic Choices: Defense Spending in a Post-Covid-19 World, An Executive Outbrief
From The CSBA–Ronald Reagan Institute Defense Worskhops, Center for Strategic and , Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments, January 2021, 13 pp. Budgetary Assessments, January 2021, 13 pp.
Tony Bertuca, “Lord Says Pandemic Sharpened DOD’s Focus on Re-Shoring, Especial y Tony Bertuca, “Lord Says Pandemic Sharpened DOD’s Focus on Re-Shoring, Especial y
Microelectronics,” Microelectronics,” Inside Defense, September 29, 2020. , September 29, 2020.
Mike Glenn, “Don’t Pay for COVID-19 Relief at Expense of Nation’s Defense, Esper Warns,” Mike Glenn, “Don’t Pay for COVID-19 Relief at Expense of Nation’s Defense, Esper Warns,”
Washington Times, September 24, 2020. , September 24, 2020.
Mackenzie Eaglen, “More Safety for Less Security Is a Sucker Bet,” American Enterprise Mackenzie Eaglen, “More Safety for Less Security Is a Sucker Bet,” American Enterprise
Institute, September 3, 2020. Institute, September 3, 2020.
Jon Harper, “Army a Potential Bil Payer for COVID-19 Costs,” Jon Harper, “Army a Potential Bil Payer for COVID-19 Costs,” National Defense, August 18, , August 18,
2020. 2020.
Matt Val one, “U.S. Defense Spending During and After the Pandemic,” Matt Val one, “U.S. Defense Spending During and After the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, July , July
31, 2020. 31, 2020.
Franklin C. Mil er, “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste,” Franklin C. Mil er, “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste,” Real Clear Defense, June 1, 2020. , June 1, 2020.
U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee
Policy
Meghan Benton, Meghan Benton, Future Scenarios for Global Mobility in the Shadow of Pandemic, Migration , Migration
Policy Institute, July 2021, 33 pp. Policy Institute, July 2021, 33 pp.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Catherine Osborn, “How to Escape the COVID-19 Debt Trap, This Crisis May Be a Turning Catherine Osborn, “How to Escape the COVID-19 Debt Trap, This Crisis May Be a Turning
Point for How the IMF Treats Indebted Nations.,” Point for How the IMF Treats Indebted Nations.,” Foreign Policy, June 4, 2021. , June 4, 2021.
Bernard Aryeetey, “G20 Debt Relief for Poor Nations Means COVID Healthcare Investment,” Bernard Aryeetey, “G20 Debt Relief for Poor Nations Means COVID Healthcare Investment,”
Thomson Reuters Foundation News, April 7, 2021. , April 7, 2021.
Gabriele Steinhauser and Joe Wal ace, “Africa’s First Pandemic Default Tests New Effort to Ease Gabriele Steinhauser and Joe Wal ace, “Africa’s First Pandemic Default Tests New Effort to Ease
Debt From China, Effort to Ensure that China and Bondholders Participate in Debt Restructurings Debt From China, Effort to Ensure that China and Bondholders Participate in Debt Restructurings
Could Help Resolve Zambia’s Default,” Could Help Resolve Zambia’s Default,” Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2020. , November 18, 2020.
Dan Runde, Conor Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, Dan Runde, Conor Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, Post-pandemic Governance in the Indo-
Pacific, Adapting USAID’s Strategy in the Face of Covid-19, Center for Strategic and , Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 11 pp. (Posted online September 25, 2020.) International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 11 pp. (Posted online September 25, 2020.)
Congressional Research Service 32 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Sam Denney and Kemal Kirisci, “COVID-19 and the Chance to Reform U.S. Refugee Policy,” Sam Denney and Kemal Kirisci, “COVID-19 and the Chance to Reform U.S. Refugee Policy,”
Lawfare, August 18, 2020. , August 18, 2020.
Daniel F. Runde, “USAID Should Lead Global Pandemic Response in an Age of Great Power Daniel F. Runde, “USAID Should Lead Global Pandemic Response in an Age of Great Power
Competition,” Competition,” The Hill, August 17, 2020. , August 17, 2020.
Rayn El is, “Conservative Foreign Aid Can Strengthen US Interests in the Coronavirus Rayn El is, “Conservative Foreign Aid Can Strengthen US Interests in the Coronavirus
Recovery,” Recovery,” Washington Examiner, August 11, 2020. , August 11, 2020.
Jamil e Bigio and Haydn Welch, “As the Global Economy Melts Down, Human Trafficking Is Jamil e Bigio and Haydn Welch, “As the Global Economy Melts Down, Human Trafficking Is
Booming,” Booming,” Foreign Policy, August 10, 2020. , August 10, 2020.
Zuhumnan Dapel, “It Is Too Late to Save These Victims of the Pandemic, The COVID-19 Zuhumnan Dapel, “It Is Too Late to Save These Victims of the Pandemic, The COVID-19
Catastrophe Is Shrinking Remittances from the United States and Creating a Looming Catastrophe Is Shrinking Remittances from the United States and Creating a Looming
Humanitarian Disaster,” Humanitarian Disaster,” Foreign Policy, July 20, 2020. , July 20, 2020.
Frances D’Emilio, “UN: Pandemic Could Push Tens of Mil ions into Chronic Hunger,” Frances D’Emilio, “UN: Pandemic Could Push Tens of Mil ions into Chronic Hunger,”
Associated Press, July 13, 2020. , July 13, 2020.
Emily Hawthorne, “COVID-19 Cash Shortages Wil Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts,” Emily Hawthorne, “COVID-19 Cash Shortages Wil Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts,”
Stratfor, June 30, 2020. , June 30, 2020.
Olivia Enos, “The Danger for Refugees and the Most Vulnerable During COVID-19,” Heritage Olivia Enos, “The Danger for Refugees and the Most Vulnerable During COVID-19,” Heritage
Foundation, June 22, 2020. Foundation, June 22, 2020.
Stephanie Segel, “International Financial Institutions Step Up, but Debt Sustainability Looms Stephanie Segel, “International Financial Institutions Step Up, but Debt Sustainability Looms
Large for Future Support,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 21, 2020. Large for Future Support,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 21, 2020.
Joel Gehrke, “Fighting China with Foreign Aid: USAID Becomes a Critical Tool in Battle for Joel Gehrke, “Fighting China with Foreign Aid: USAID Becomes a Critical Tool in Battle for
World Influence,” World Influence,” Washington Examiner, May 10, 2020. , May 10, 2020.
Michael H. Fuchs, Alexandra Schmitt, and Haneul Lee, “Foreign Aid is Critical to Stopping the Michael H. Fuchs, Alexandra Schmitt, and Haneul Lee, “Foreign Aid is Critical to Stopping the
Coronavirus,” Coronavirus,” National Interest, May 3, 2020. , May 3, 2020.
Daniel F. Runde, Conor M. Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, “Covid-19 Has Consequences for Daniel F. Runde, Conor M. Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, “Covid-19 Has Consequences for
U.S. Foreign Aid and Global Leadership,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), U.S. Foreign Aid and Global Leadership,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),
May 1, 2020. May 1, 2020.
Non-state Actors
Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “Endangered Species Are Paying the Price of Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “Endangered Species Are Paying the Price of
COVID-19, Diminishing Tourism Has Created New Incentives for the Il egal Wildlife Trade,” COVID-19, Diminishing Tourism Has Created New Incentives for the Il egal Wildlife Trade,”
Foreign Policy, July 11, 2021. , July 11, 2021.
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Kieran Guilbert, “Traffickers Seen Thriving in Europe as COVID-19 Hits Victim Support,” Kieran Guilbert, “Traffickers Seen Thriving in Europe as COVID-19 Hits Victim Support,”
Reuters, April 9, 2021. , April 9, 2021.
Charlie Mitchel , “Palo Alto Networks Report Explores ‘Explosion’ in Cloud Attacks Amid Charlie Mitchel , “Palo Alto Networks Report Explores ‘Explosion’ in Cloud Attacks Amid
COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 pandemic, Inside Cybersecurity, April 6, 2021 , April 6, 2021
Michael King and Sam Mullins, “COVID-19 and Terrorism in the West: Has Radicalization Michael King and Sam Mullins, “COVID-19 and Terrorism in the West: Has Radicalization
Real y Gone Viral?” Real y Gone Viral?” Just Security, March 4, 2021. , March 4, 2021.
Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “The Pandemic Is Putting Gangsters in Power, As Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “The Pandemic Is Putting Gangsters in Power, As
States Struggle, Organized Crime Is Rising to New Prominence,” States Struggle, Organized Crime Is Rising to New Prominence,” Foreign Policy, February 15, , February 15,
2021. 2021.
Congressional Research Service 33 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “How to Run a Criminal Network in a Pandemic, Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “How to Run a Criminal Network in a Pandemic,
Drug Dealers and Human Traffickers Are Upgrading Their Marketing and Delivery Services,” Drug Dealers and Human Traffickers Are Upgrading Their Marketing and Delivery Services,”
Foreign Policy, September 5, 2020. , September 5, 2020.
Joby Warrick, “Covid-19 Pandemic Is Stoking Extremist Flames Worldwide, Analysts Warn,” Joby Warrick, “Covid-19 Pandemic Is Stoking Extremist Flames Worldwide, Analysts Warn,”
Washington Post, July 9, 2020. , July 9, 2020.
Ioan Gril o, “How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Profiting From the Pandemic,” Ioan Gril o, “How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Profiting From the Pandemic,” New York Times, ,
July 7, 2020. July 7, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Provides Opportunity for Terrorists,” Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Provides Opportunity for Terrorists,” Associated
Press, July 6, 2020. , July 6, 2020.
Robin Simcox, “Terrorism After the Pandemic, Months of Isolation and Governments Grappling Robin Simcox, “Terrorism After the Pandemic, Months of Isolation and Governments Grappling
with Other Crises Could Lead to a Rise in Attacks,” with Other Crises Could Lead to a Rise in Attacks,” Foreign Policy, July 2, 2020. , July 2, 2020.
Zachary Abuza and Alif Satria, “How Are Indonesia’s Terrorist Groups Weathering the Zachary Abuza and Alif Satria, “How Are Indonesia’s Terrorist Groups Weathering the
Pandemic?” Pandemic?” Diplomat, June 23, 2020. , June 23, 2020.
Camilo Tamayo Gomez, “Coronavirus: Drug Cartels Functioning as Governing Bodies Could Camilo Tamayo Gomez, “Coronavirus: Drug Cartels Functioning as Governing Bodies Could
Receive Popularity Boost,” Receive Popularity Boost,” National Interest, June 23, 2020. , June 23, 2020.
Simon Harding, “How Gangs and Drug Dealers Adapted to the Pandemic Reality,” Simon Harding, “How Gangs and Drug Dealers Adapted to the Pandemic Reality,” National
Interest, June 22, 2020. , June 22, 2020.
Nikita Malik, “How to Prepare for the Coronavirus’s Impact on Terrorism,” Nikita Malik, “How to Prepare for the Coronavirus’s Impact on Terrorism,” National Interest, ,
June 21, 2020. June 21, 2020.
Anthony Faiola and Lucien Chauvin, “The Coronavirus Has Gutted the Price of Coca. It Could Anthony Faiola and Lucien Chauvin, “The Coronavirus Has Gutted the Price of Coca. It Could
Reshape the Cocaine Trade,” Reshape the Cocaine Trade,” Washington Post, June 9, 2020. , June 9, 2020.
Alexandra Lamarche, Arden Bentley, Rachel Schmidtke, and Sahar Atrache, “The Coronavirus Alexandra Lamarche, Arden Bentley, Rachel Schmidtke, and Sahar Atrache, “The Coronavirus
Has Become Terrorists’ Combat Weapon of Choice,” Has Become Terrorists’ Combat Weapon of Choice,” National Interest, June 9, 2020. , June 9, 2020.
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than COVID-19
David Ignatius, “The Rest of the World Is Taking Advantage of a Distracted America,” David Ignatius, “The Rest of the World Is Taking Advantage of a Distracted America,”
Washington Post, October 6, 2020. , October 6, 2020.
David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Edward Wong, “As Virus Toll Preoccupies U.S., Rivals Test David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Edward Wong, “As Virus Toll Preoccupies U.S., Rivals Test
Limits of American Power,” Limits of American Power,” New York Times, June 1 (updated June 2), 2020. , June 1 (updated June 2), 2020.
James Jay Carafano, “Amid Coronavirus, Global Chal enges Remain for U.S.—Keep Eye on James Jay Carafano, “Amid Coronavirus, Global Chal enges Remain for U.S.—Keep Eye on
These 3 Hot Spots,” Heritage Foundation, May 20, 2020. These 3 Hot Spots,” Heritage Foundation, May 20, 2020.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Kathrin Hil e, “Taiwan Fears Uptick in Military Threat from China in Wake of Coronavirus,” Kathrin Hil e, “Taiwan Fears Uptick in Military Threat from China in Wake of Coronavirus,”
Financial Times, May 18, 2020. , May 18, 2020.
Steven Erlanger, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis?” Steven Erlanger, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis?” New York Times, May , May
9 (updated May 11), 2020. 9 (updated May 11), 2020.
Steve Mollman, “China’s South China Sea Plan Unfolds Regardless of the Coronavirus,” Steve Mollman, “China’s South China Sea Plan Unfolds Regardless of the Coronavirus,” Quartz, ,
May 9, 2020. May 9, 2020.
Thomas Spoehr, “U.S. Can’t Afford to Take Its Eye off the Bal As National Threats Loom Thomas Spoehr, “U.S. Can’t Afford to Take Its Eye off the Bal As National Threats Loom
Beyond COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation, May 8, 2020. Beyond COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation, May 8, 2020.
Arjun Kapur, “Scotland Launched an Invasion During the Black Death. Does History Tel China Arjun Kapur, “Scotland Launched an Invasion During the Black Death. Does History Tel China
to Attack Taiwan?” to Attack Taiwan?” National Interest, May 2, 2020. , May 2, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 34 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Role of Congress
Daniel P. Vajdich, “Congress Has Been AWOL on U.S. Coronavirus Diplomacy, The Invisibility Daniel P. Vajdich, “Congress Has Been AWOL on U.S. Coronavirus Diplomacy, The Invisibility
and Silence of Congress Is Another Reason for America’s Shocking Abdication of Global and Silence of Congress Is Another Reason for America’s Shocking Abdication of Global
Leadership,” Leadership,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020. , May 22, 2020.
George Ingram and Jeffrey L. Sturchio, “How Congress Can Address the International George Ingram and Jeffrey L. Sturchio, “How Congress Can Address the International
Dimensions of the COVID-19 Response,” Brookings Institution, April 15, 2020. Dimensions of the COVID-19 Response,” Brookings Institution, April 15, 2020.
Rob Berschinski and Benjamin Haas, “How Congress Can Save Lives, Protect Rights, and Exert Rob Berschinski and Benjamin Haas, “How Congress Can Save Lives, Protect Rights, and Exert
U.S. Leadership Global y in Response to Coronavirus,” U.S. Leadership Global y in Response to Coronavirus,” Just Security, April 8, 2020. , April 8, 2020.
Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, “Pandemic Stymies Congressional Check on Trump’s Foreign Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, “Pandemic Stymies Congressional Check on Trump’s Foreign
Policy,” Policy,” Foreign Policy, April 8, 2020. , April 8, 2020.

Author Information

Ronald O'Rourke Ronald O'Rourke
Kathleen J. McInnis Kathleen J. McInnis
Specialist in Naval Affairs Specialist in Naval Affairs
Specialist in International Security Specialist in International Security

Acknowledgments
A third original coauthor of this report was Michael Moodie, who was Assistant Director of the Foreign A third original coauthor of this report was Michael Moodie, who was Assistant Director of the Foreign
Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS and a Senior Specialist in Foreign Affairs, DefenseAffairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS and a Senior Specialist in Foreign Affairs, Defense , and , and
Trade until his retirement from CRS in December 2020.Trade until his retirement from CRS in December 2020.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Disclaimer
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