[Archived] COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment—Overview of Issues and Further Reading for Congress

Changes from March 17, 2021 to July 13, 2021

This page shows textual changes in the document between the two versions indicated in the dates above. Textual matter removed in the later version is indicated with ~~red strikethrough~~ and textual matter added in the later version is indicated with blue.

COVID-19: Potential Implications for
~~March 17~~July 13, 2021 , 2021
International Security Environment—Overview Ronald O'Rourke
of Issues and Further Reading for Congress
Specialist in Naval Affairs Specialist in Naval Affairs

Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentialy Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentialy
Kathleen J. McInnis
profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment ~~and th e U.S.~~
~~Specialist in International~~
~~role in the world. Other observers are more skeptical that the pandemic will have such effects.~~
~~Security~~

. Other Specialist in International observers are more skeptical that the pandemic will have such effects. Security In reports issued in March and April 2021, the U.S. intelligence community provided assessments of the potential impact of the pandemic on the international security environment. Observers who argue the pandemic could be world-changing for the international security Observers who argue the pandemic could be world-changing for the international security
environment environment ~~and the U.S. role in the world~~ have focused on several areas of potential change, have focused on several areas of potential change,

including the following, which are listed here separately but overlap in some cases and can including the following, which are listed here separately but overlap in some cases and can
interact with one another: interact with one another:
 world order, international institutions, and global governance;  world order, international institutions, and global governance;
 U.S. global leadership and the U.S. role in the world;  U.S. global leadership and the U.S. role in the world;
 China’s potential role as a global leader;  China’s potential role as a global leader;
 U.S. relations and great power competition with China and Russia U.S. relations and great power competition with China and Russia~~, including the use of the pandemic as a~~
~~theme or tool for conducting ideological competition;~~
;  the relative prevalence of democratic and authoritarian or autocratic forms of government;  the relative prevalence of democratic and authoritarian or autocratic forms of government;
 societal tension, reform, transformation, and governmental stability in various countries;  societal tension, reform, transformation, and governmental stability in various countries;
 the world economy, globalization, and U.S. trade policy;  the world economy, globalization, and U.S. trade policy;
  ~~the characteristics and conduct of conflict;~~
~~ allied defense budgets~~allied defense spending and U.S. alliances; and U.S. alliances;
 the cohesion of the European Union;  the cohesion of the European Union;
 the definition of, and budgeting for, U.S. national security;  the definition of, and budgeting for, U.S. national security;
 U.S. defense strategy, defense budgets, and military operations;  U.S. defense strategy, defense budgets, and military operations;
 U.S. foreign assistance programs U.S. foreign assistance programs ~~and~~, international debt relief international debt relief, and refugee policy; ;
 activities of non-state actors;  activities of non-state actors;
 the amount of U.S. attention devoted to ongoing international issues other than the pandemic; and  the amount of U.S. attention devoted to ongoing international issues other than the pandemic; and
 the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.  the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international security environment, Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international security environment,
whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change are appropriate and sufficient, and what whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change are appropriate and sufficient, and what
implications such change could have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and implications such change could have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and
defense policy. defense policy.
Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant ~~and even profound~~ implications for U.S. foreign and implications for U.S. foreign and
~~defense policy, and for the status of Congress as a co-equal branch relative to the executive branch in setting and overseeing~~
~~the implementation of U.S. foreign and defense~~ defense policy. policy.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

link to page link to page 1013 link to page link to page 1316 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment

Introduction
Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potential y Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potential y
profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environmentprofound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment ~~and the U.S.~~
~~role in the world~~. Other observers are more skeptical that the pandemic wil have such effects. . Other observers are more skeptical that the pandemic wil have such effects.
This report provides a brief overview of some potential implications the pandemic might have for This report provides a brief overview of some potential implications the pandemic might have for
the international security the international security environment, and environment, and ~~a bibliography of~~appendices listing CRS reports and other writings for CRS reports and other writings for
further reading. further reading.
Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international Issues for Congress may include whether and how the pandemic could change the international
security environment, whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change security environment, whether the Biden Administration’s actions for responding to such change
are appropriate and sufficient, and what implications such change could have for the role of are appropriate and sufficient, and what implications such change could have for the role of
Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Congress in setting and overseeing the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign Congress’s decisions regarding these issues could have significant implications for U.S. foreign
~~and defense policy, and for the status of Congress as a co-equal branch relative to the executive~~
~~branch in setting and overseeing the implementation of U.S. foreign and defense~~ and defense policy. policy.
Appendix A presents a list of CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of issues presents a list of CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of issues
presented in this reportpresented in this report. Appendix B presents a list of additional writings reflecting various presents a list of additional writings reflecting various
perspectives on these issues. perspectives on these issues.
~~Overview of Potential Implications~~
~~Areas of potential change reflected in writings from observers who view the pandemic as a~~
~~potential y world-changing event include but are not limited to those discussed below. Although~~
~~these areas of potential change are presented separately, they overlap in some cases and can~~
~~interact with one another.~~
~~World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance~~
~~Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could cause or accelerate~~
~~changes to the U.S.-led liberal international order that has operated since World War II, to the~~
~~international institutions and norms that contribute to it, and consequently to global governance.1~~

~~1 For more on the U.S.-led liberal international order and the concept of world order generally, see CRS Report~~
~~R44891, U.S. Role in the World: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke. As discussed in that~~
~~report, t he term international order or world order generally refers in foreign policy discussions to the collection of~~
~~organizations, institutions, treaties, rules, norms, and practices that are intended to organize, structure, and regulate~~
~~international relations during a given historical period.~~
~~Other terms used to refer to the U.S.-led liberal international order include postwar international order,~~ ~~rules-based~~
~~international order, and open international order. Observers sometimes substitute world for international, or omit~~
international or world and refer simply to the liberal order, the U.S.-led order, and so on. In the terms ~~liberal~~
~~international order~~ ~~and liberal order, the word liberal does not refer to the conservative-liberal construct often used in~~
~~discussing contemporary politics in the United States or other countries. It is, instead, an older use of the term that~~
~~refers to an order based on the rule of law, as opposed to an order based on the arbitrary powers of hereditary~~
~~monarchs.~~
~~T hough often referred to as if it is a fully developed or universally established situation, the liberal international order,~~
~~like other international orders that preceded it, is incomplete in geograph ic reach and in other ways; partly aspirational;~~
~~not fixed in stone, but rather subject to evolution over time; sometimes violated by its supporters; not entirely free of~~
~~might -makes-right behavior; resisted or rejected by certain states and non -state actors; and subject to various stresses~~
~~and challenges.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
1Background 2021 Assessments by U.S. Intelligence Community In reports issued in March and April 2021, the U.S. intel igence community provided assessments of the potential impact of the pandemic on the international security environment. Excerpts from these two reports are presented below. March 2021 NIC Report on Global Trends A March 2021 report of the National Intel igence Council (NIC)1 on global trends—the 2021 edition of a report that NIC publishes every four years to serve as an unclassified strategic assessment on key trends that might shape the world over the next 20 years—includes a section on the potential impact of the pandemic, which states: The COVID-19 pandemic emerged globally in 2020, wreaking havoc across the world, killing more than 2.5 million people as of early 2021, devastating families and communities, and disrupting economies and political dynamics within and between countries. Previous global trends editions forecasted the potential for new diseases and even imagined scenarios with a pandemic, but we lacked a full picture of the breadth and depth of its disruptive potential. COVID-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance, geopolitics, and technology. 1 T he Office of the Director of National Intelligence states that the National Intelligence Council “supports the Director of National Intelligence [DNI] in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) a nd is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Int elligence Community collaboration and outreach. T he NIC’s National Intelligence Officers—drawn from government, academia, and the private sector—are the Intelligence Community’s senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.” (Director of Nat ional Intelligence, “ National Intelligence Council—Who We Are,” accessed July 9, 2021, at https://www.dni.gov/index.php/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=393&Itemid=778 .) Congressional Research Service 1 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment To understand and assess the impact of this crisis, we examined and debated a broad range of our assumptions and assessments related to key global trends. We asked a series of questions: Which existing trends will endure, which trends are accelerating or decelerating because of the pandemic, and where are we likely to experience fundamental, systemic shifts? Are the disruptions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape the future? Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years to come and change the way we live, work, and govern domestically and internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question. ACCELERATING, SHARPENING SOME TRENDS The pandemic and corresponding national responses appear to be honing and accelerating several trends that were already underway before the outbreak. COVID-19 brought global health and healthcare issues into sharp relief, exposed and in some cases widened social fissures, underscored vast disparities in healthcare access and infrastructure, and interrupted efforts to combat other diseases. The pandemic also highlighted weaknesses in the international coordination on health crises and the mismatch between existing institutions, funding levels, and future health challenges. Catalyzing Economic Trends . Lockdowns, quarantines, and the closing of international borders have catalyzed some pre-existing economic trends, including diversification in global supply chains, increased national debt, and greater government intervention in economies. Moving forward, the character of globalization may retain some of the changes from this crisis period, and debt, particularly for developing economies, will strain national capacities for many years. Reinforcing Nationalism and Polarization. Nationalism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups. The response to the pandemic has fueled partisanship and polarization in many countries as groups argue over the best way to respond and seek scapegoats to blame for spreading the virus and for slow responses. Deepening Inequality. The disproportionate economic impact of COVID-19 on low-income earners has caused them to fall further behind. W hen COVID-19 is finally controlled, many families are likely to have experienced further setbacks, especially those working in the service or informal sectors or who left the workforce to provide dependent care—predominantly women. The pandemic has exposed the digital divide within and between countries while spurring efforts to improve Internet access. Straining Governance. The pandemic is straining government capacity for services and contributing to already low levels of trust in institutions in countries that have not effectively handled the response. The pandemic is exacerbating the confusing and polarized information environment that is undermining public confidence in health authorities, particularly in open societies. Illiberal regimes in some count ries are using the pandemic as a pretext to more severely crack down on dissent and restrict civic freedoms, conditions that may outlive the disease. Highlighting Failed International Cooperation. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the weaknesses and political cleavages in international institutions, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations, and called into question countries’ ability and willingness to cooperate multilaterally to address common challenges beyond infectious disease, particularly climate change. The WHO, which has faced significant funding difficulties and resistance to mandatory surveillance regimes, is facing its gravest shock in nearly two decades. The crisis, however, may ultimately lead actors to make deeper Congressional Research Service 2 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment reforms, standardize data collection and sharing, and forge new public -private partnerships. Elevating the Role of Nonstate Actors. Nonstate actors, ranging from the Gates Foundation to private companies, have been crucial to vaccine research or retrofitting equipment to mass produce medical supplies and personal protective equipment. Nonstate networks will complement national and intergovernmental action in future health crises, including early warning, treatment, facilitation of data-sharing, and vaccine development. WHILE OTHERS DECELERATE OR REVERSE COVID-19 is slowing and possibly reversing some longstanding trends in human development, especially the reduction of poverty and disease and closing gender inequality gaps. The longest lasting reversals may be in poverty reduction across Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, followed by losses in gender equality. The resources devoted to fighting COVID-19 and social restrictions could reverse years of progress against malaria, measles, polio, and other infectious diseases by consuming key financial, material, and personnel resources. The COVID-19 emergency may bring regions together in ways that previous crises have not. Although European countries early in the crisis imposed restrictions on border traffic and exports of critical medical supplies, the European Union has rallied around an economic rescue package and other emergency measures that could bolster the European integration project going forward. COVID-19 could also lead to redirection of national budgets toward pandemic response and economic recovery, diverting funds from defense expenditures, foreign aid, and infrastructure programs in some countries, at least in the near term. MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS The unanticipated second- and third-order effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have reminded us how uncertain the future is —both in the long and short term. As researchers and analysts, we must be ever vigilant, asking better questions, frequently challenging our assumptions, checking our biases, and looking for weak signals of change. We need to expect the unexpected and apply the lessons of this pandemic to our craft in the future.2 April 2021 DNI Threat Assessment An April 9, 2021, report from the Director of National Intel igence (DNI)—DNI’s annual threat assessment for 2021—includes a section on the pandemic that states (emphasis as in the original): The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted life worldwide, with far-reaching effects that extend well beyond global health to the economic, political, and security sphe res. We expect COVID-19 to remain a threat to populations worldwide until vaccines and therapeutics are widely distributed. The economic and political implications of the pandemic will ripple through the world for years. The pandemic is raising geopolitical tensions, and great powers are jockeying for advantage and influence. States are struggling to cooperate—and in some cases are undermining cooperation—to respond to the pandemic and its economic fallout, particularly as some governments turn inward and question the merits of globalization and interdependence. Some governments, such as China and Russia, are using offers of medical supplies and vaccines to try to boost their geopolitical standing. The economic fallout from the pandemic is likely to create o r worsen instability in at least a few—and perhaps many—countries, as people grow more desperate in the face 2 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2040, A More Contested World, March 2021, pp. 11-13. Congressional Research Service 3 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment of interlocking pressures that include sustained economic downturns, job losses, and disrupted supply chains. Some hard-hit developing countries are experiencing financial and humanitarian crises, increasing the risk of surges in migration, collapsed governments, or internal conflict.  Although global trade shows signs of bouncing back from the COVID-19-induced slump, economists caution that any recovery this year could be disrupted by ongoing or expanding pandemic effects, keeping pressure on many governments to focus on internal economic stability. In April, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the global economy would grow 6 percent this year and 4.4 percent in 2022. This year’s forecast is revised up 0.5 percentage points relative to the previous forecast, reflecting expectations of vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year and additional policy support in a few large economies. The global growth contraction for 2020 is estimated at 3.3 percent.  The resurgence in COVID-19 infections early this year may have an even greater economic impact as struggling businesses in hard-hit sectors such as tourism and restaurants fold and governments face increasing budget strains.  The effects on developing countries—especially those that rely heavily on remittances, tourism, or oil exports—may be severe and longer lasting; many developing countries already have sought debt relief.  The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, along with conflict and weather extremes, has driven food insecurity worldwide to its highest point in more than a decade, which increases the risk of instability. The number of people experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity doubled from 135 million in 2019 to about 270 million last year, and is projected to rise to 330 million by yearend. The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting shifts in security priorities for countries around the world. As militaries face growing calls to cut budgets, gaps are emerging in UN peacekeeping operations; military training and preparedness; counterterrorism operations; and arms control monitoring, verification, and compliance. These gaps are likely to grow without a quick end to the pandemic and a rapid recovery, making managing conflict more difficult—particularly because the pandemic has not caused any diminution in the number or intensity of conflicts. COVID-19-related disruptions to essential health services—such as vaccinations, aid delivery, and maternal and child health programs—will increase the likelihood of additional health emergencies, especially among vulnerable populations in low-income countries. As examples, the pandemic has disrupted HIV/AIDS treatments and preventative measures in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as measles and polio vaccination campaigns in dozens of countries. World populations, including Americans, will remain vulnerable to new outbreaks of infectious diseases as risk factors persist, such as rapid and unplanned urbanization, protracted conflict and humanitarian crises, human incursions into previously unsettled land, expansion of international travel and trade, and public mistrust of government and health care workers.3 Overview of Areas of Potential Implications Areas of potential change reflected in writings from observers who view the pandemic as a potential y world-changing event include but are not limited to those discussed below. Although these areas of potential change are presented separately, they overlap in some cases and can interact with one another. 3 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, April 9, 2021, pp. 17-18. Congressional Research Service 4 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could cause or accelerate changes to the U.S.-led liberal international order that has operated since World War II, to the international institutions and norms that contribute to it, and consequently to global governance.4

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Changes to the international order and its supporting institutions and norms could affect the Changes to the international order and its supporting institutions and norms could affect the
international context for addressing not only the pandemic, but other international issues as wel . international context for addressing not only the pandemic, but other international issues as wel .
U.S. Global Leadership and Role in the World
The pandemic could influence discussions over the costs and benefits to the United States of The pandemic could influence discussions over the costs and benefits to the United States of
acting as a global leader, not only with respect to global health but across a range of issues. acting as a global leader, not only with respect to global health but across a range of issues.
~~During the Trump Administration~~In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on how the pandemic may have , some observers focused on how the pandemic may have
il ustrated the strengths or weaknesses of the Trump Administration’s “America First” approach il ustrated the strengths or weaknesses of the Trump Administration’s “America First” approach
to the U.S. role in the world. to the U.S. role in the world. ~~During the Trump Administration, some~~Some observers argued that the observers argued that the
pandemic demonstrated that the United States was maintaining or reasserting its role as global pandemic demonstrated that the United States was maintaining or reasserting its role as global
leader, while others argued that the leader, while others argued that the pandemic demonstrated that the United States was choosing pandemic demonstrated that the United States was choosing
to withdraw from or was no longer capable of performing that role, and that the pandemic was the to withdraw from or was no longer capable of performing that role, and that the pandemic was the
first major international crisis since World War II for which the United States did not serve as the first major international crisis since World War II for which the United States did not serve as the
leader for spearheading, leader for spearheading, organizing, or implementing an international response. organizing, or implementing an international response.
~~Some~~Other observers have argued that the U.S. response to the pandemic has focused international attention on what they view as a need for reform at the World Health Organization (WHO), demonstrated the strength and innovativeness of the U.S. scientific and pharmaceutical establishments in terms of developing and manufacturing vaccines, and demonstrated the flexibility and resiliency of the U.S. federal system in terms of permitting states and localities to respond to the pandemic in ways that are tailored to local conditions. Prior to the start of large-scale vaccinations in the United States, some observers, including some ~~observers, including some~~ foreign observers, foreign observers, ~~have~~ argued that the U.S. domestic response argued that the U.S. domestic response
to the pandemic to the pandemic iswas demonstrating weaknesses in U.S. democracy, governance, and public health, demonstrating weaknesses in U.S. democracy, governance, and public health,
particularly in comparison to how certain other countries particularly in comparison to how certain other countries ~~have responded~~responded during that period to the pandemic within to the pandemic within
their own borders, and that this their own borders, and that this ~~wil~~ would reduce the ability of the United States in the future to offer reduce the ability of the United States in the future to offer
itself or be accepted by other countries as a global leader on other internationalitself or be accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues or as a issues or as a
model for other model for other countries to emulate. As vaccines have become more widely available in the United States, some observers have argued that the United States should export large numbers of vaccine doses to 4 T he term international order or world order generally refers in foreign policy discussions to the collection of organizations, institutions, treaties, rules, norms, and practices that are intended to organize, structure, and regulate international relations during a given historical period. Other terms used to refer to the U.S.-led liberal international order include postwar international order, rules-based international order, and open international order. Observers sometimes substitute world for international, or omit international or world and refer simply to the liberal order, the U.S.-led order, and so on. In the terms liberal international order and liberal order, the word liberal does not refer to the conservative-liberal construct often used in discussing contemporary politics in the United States or other countries. It is, instead, an o lder use of the term that refers to an order based on the rule of law, as opposed to an order based on the arbitrary powers of hereditary monarchs. T hough often referred to as if it is a fully developed or universally established situation, the liberal in ternational order, like other international orders that preceded it, is incomplete in geographic reach and in other ways; partly aspirational; not fixed in stone, but rather subject to evolution over time; sometimes violated by its supporters; not entirely free of might -makes-right behavior; resisted or rejected by certain states and non -state actors; and subject to various stresses and challenges. Congressional Research Service 5 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment other countries that need them so as to demonstrate U.S. global leadership and help protect U.S. public health and the U.S. economy by helping to end the global pandemic more quickly. China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader ~~countries to emulate.~~
~~Other observers have argued that the U.S. response to the pandemic is focusing international~~
~~attention on what they view as a need for reform at the World Health Organization (WHO),~~
~~demonstrating the strength and innovativeness of the U.S. scientific establishment in terms of~~
~~developing vaccines and other medical responses to the pandemic, and demonstrating the~~
~~flexibility and resiliency of the U.S. federal system in terms of permitting states and localities to~~
~~respond to the pandemic in ways that are tailored to local conditions.~~
~~China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader~~
Some observers have focused on how the pandemic may be providing insight into whether China Some observers have focused on how the pandemic may be providing insight into whether China
desires and is working to become a global leader on par with (or in the place of) the United desires and is working to become a global leader on par with (or in the place of) the United
States, States, ~~whether~~to what degree China has a capacity for doing so, and how other countries might view China China has a capacity for doing so, and how other countries might view China
acting in such a role. China’s transparency, particularly regarding its actions in the early days of acting in such a role. China’s transparency, particularly regarding its actions in the early days of
its COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhanits COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and trial data on the efficacy of its vaccines, as wel as China’s actions to send vaccines, other medical , as wel as China’s actions to send vaccines, other medical
supplies, and medical personnel to other supplies, and medical personnel to other countries, perhaps for political or diplomatic purposes, ~~countries,~~ have become have become ~~one element~~elements of a broader of a broader
ongoing discussion regarding China’s capacity or suitability for acting as a global leader. ongoing discussion regarding China’s capacity or suitability for acting as a global leader. ~~This~~
~~ongoing discussion includes consideration of a range of other issues, including China’s actions~~
~~for implementing its Belt and Road Initiative, China’s territorial disputes with other countries, its~~
~~participation in international organizations, and its technology-development and international~~
~~lending activities.~~
U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China
and Russia
Some observers have focused on how the pandemic has become a significant element in U.S-Some observers have focused on how the pandemic has become a significant element in U.S-
China relations, and in U.S. great power competition with China and Russia. For some observers, China relations, and in U.S. great power competition with China and Russia. For some observers,
the pandemic presents an opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation on an important international the pandemic presents an opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation on an important international
~~Congressional Research Service~~
2

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

issue of common interest. For other observers, the pandemic is a major source of dispute and an issue of common interest. For other observers, the pandemic is a major source of dispute and an
arena of competition between the two countries, and is arena of competition between the two countries, and is ~~causing U.S.-China relations to harden~~
~~more fully into a Cold War-like adversarial situation.~~
~~Some observers have focused on what they view as a~~ contributing to a hardening of U.S.-China relations into a Cold War-like adversarial situation. In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on what they viewed as a competition or race between the United competition or race between the United
States, China, Russia, and other countries to developStates, China, Russia, and other countries to develop, manufacture, and administer effective vaccines and administer effective vaccines ~~for the~~
~~coronavirus that causes COVID-19~~, and thus be able to restore their economies to full operation , and thus be able to restore their economies to full operation
~~sooner than other countries, and/or exploit foreign access to their vaccines as foreign policy~~
~~levers, and thereby gain a political-economic advantage in the post-pandemic world. The terms~~
~~vaccine diplomacy and vaccine nationalism~~sooner than other countries. Some observers have focused on whether China and Russia are attempting to use exports of their vaccines as levers to gain advantages in their relations with recipient countries. The terms vaccine nationalism and vaccine diplomacy are being used by some ~~are being used by some~~ of these observers to refer to of these observers to refer to
~~aspects of this perceived competition or race~~such perceived activities. Some observers have expressed concern that . Some observers have expressed concern that
decisions by countries to pursue vaccine development and deployment in a competitive, decisions by countries to pursue vaccine development and deployment in a competitive,
individual manner rather than a cooperative, multilateral manner could reduce the overal individual manner rather than a cooperative, multilateral manner could reduce the overal
effectiveness of efforts to developeffectiveness of efforts to develop, manufacture, and administer effective vaccines and thereby and administer effective vaccines and thereby prolong the prolong the
global pandemic. pandemic.
Some observers have focused on the pandemic as a factor in the discussion of whether the United Some observers have focused on the pandemic as a factor in the discussion of whether the United
States should decouple its economy from China’s and reduce its dependence on China for key States should decouple its economy from China’s and reduce its dependence on China for key
materials and products, including hospital supplies and pharmaceuticals. Some observers have materials and products, including hospital supplies and pharmaceuticals. Some observers have
focused on whether the U.S. and Chinese responses to the pandemic wil affect views around the focused on whether the U.S. and Chinese responses to the pandemic wil affect views around the
world regarding the relative merits of the U.S. and Chinese forms of government and economic world regarding the relative merits of the U.S. and Chinese forms of government and economic
models as potential examples to emulate. models as potential examples to emulate.
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy
Related to the point above about forms of government, some observers have focused on the Related to the point above about forms of government, some observers have focused on the
potential impact of the pandemic on discussions in various countries regarding the merits of potential impact of the pandemic on discussions in various countries regarding the merits of
democracy compared to those of other forms of government. Some observers have focused on democracy compared to those of other forms of government. Some observers have focused on
whether the pandemic is providing national leaders with an opportunity or rationale for taking whether the pandemic is providing national leaders with an opportunity or rationale for taking
actions to seize greater power and move their countries away from democracy and toward actions to seize greater power and move their countries away from democracy and toward
authoritarianism or autocracy, or strengthen or consolidate their already-existing authoritarian or authoritarianism or autocracy, or strengthen or consolidate their already-existing authoritarian or
autocratic forms of government. autocratic forms of government.
Congressional Research Service 6 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and
Governmental Stability
Beyond the specific point above about potential movement toward greater authoritarianism and Beyond the specific point above about potential movement toward greater authoritarianism and
autocracy, some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic more general y could autocracy, some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic more general y could
cause increased social tensions in certain countries, could lead to (or present opportunities for) cause increased social tensions in certain countries, could lead to (or present opportunities for)
societal reforms and transformations, and could destabilize and perhaps cause the downfal of societal reforms and transformations, and could destabilize and perhaps cause the downfal of
governments, akin to the effects of certain past world-changing events, such as World War I. governments, akin to the effects of certain past world-changing events, such as World War I.2

~~2 For brief discussions of the impacts of World War I on societies and governments, see, for example, Robert Wilde,~~
~~“T he Consequences of World War I, Political and Social Effects of the War to End All War s,” ThoughtCo., July 10,~~
~~2019; John Horne, “ T he First World War: the Aftermath, T he Years Following the End of the War Were Marked by~~
~~More Wars, Political Upheaval and Deep Social Change,” Irish Times, April 24, 2018; Steven Mintz, “ Historical~~
~~Context: T he Global Effect of World War I,” History Now (Gilder Lehrm an Institute of Am erican History) , undated,~~
~~accessed April 16, 2020; Margaret MacMillan, “ World War I: T he War T hat Changed Everything,”~~ ~~Wall Street~~
~~Journal, June 20, 2014; Steven Erlanger, “ T he War to End All Wars? Hardly. But It Did Change T hem Forever.”~~ ~~New~~
~~York Tim es, June 26, 2014; Jay Winter, “ How the Great War Shaped the World,” Atlantic, World War I issue~~
(September 29, 2014); Kathleen Haley, “ 100 Years after WWI: T he Lasting Impacts of the Great War,” Media, Law &
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5 Such changes could alter the political orientations, national strategies, foreign policies, and Such changes could alter the political orientations, national strategies, foreign policies, and
defense policies of the countries in which they occur, potential y inducing follow-on effects defense policies of the countries in which they occur, potential y inducing follow-on effects
among governments and other global actors that interact with those countries. among governments and other global actors that interact with those countries.
World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy
Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could lead to significant and Some observers have focused on the possibility that the pandemic could lead to significant and
potential y long-lasting changes to the world economy that in turn could reshape the international potential y long-lasting changes to the world economy that in turn could reshape the international
security environmentsecurity environment~~. Among other things, observers have focused on the possibility that the~~
~~COVID-19 situation could lead the world economy into a significant recession—an effect that~~
~~could contribute to the societal tensions mentioned in the previous point~~. Noting that the . Noting that the
pandemic pandemic ~~has~~ reduced world trade volumes and disrupted reduced world trade volumes and disrupted and altered global supply chains, they have focused global supply chains, they have focused
on the question of whether economic on the question of whether economic ~~globalization~~ globalization wil as a result be slowed, halted, or reversed. wil as a result be slowed, halted, or reversed.
Observers are monitoring how such Observers are monitoring how such effects could influence or be influenced by U.S. trade policy. effects could influence or be influenced by U.S. trade policy.
Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances
~~The so-cal ed burden-sharing issue—that is, the question of whether U.S. al ies are shouldering a~~
~~sufficient share of the collective al ied defense burden—has long been a point of contention~~
~~between the United States and its al ies around the globe.~~ Some observers have focused on the Some observers have focused on the
possibility that possibility that ~~the costs that~~costs incurred by U.S. al ies U.S. al ies ~~are incurring~~ —particularly NATO al ies in Europe—to support their economies during stay-at-to support their economies during stay-at-
home/lockdown periods home/lockdown periods ~~wil~~ could lead to offsetting reductions in their defense expenditures. lead to offsetting reductions in their defense expenditures. ~~Some~~
~~observers argue that the NATO al ies in Europe in particular may experience contractions in their~~
~~defense budgets for this reason. More general y, some observers argue that if the pandemic causes~~
~~a global recession, al ied defense budgets could be further reduced—a potential impact that could~~
~~affect not only NATO al ies in Europe, but those in Asia as wel .~~
~~European Union~~
~~Some observers have additional y~~More general y, some observers have asked whether reductions in economic growth caused by the pandemic could lead to reductions in the defense budgets of U.S. al ies in both Europe and Asia. European Union In the earlier months of the pandemic, some observers focused on the question of whether the pandemic focused on the question of whether the pandemic iswas creating creating
tensions—or, conversely, opportunities for greater coordination—among tensions—or, conversely, opportunities for greater coordination—among the European Union the European Union
member states, and what impact the pandemic might ultimately have on the member states, and what impact the pandemic might ultimately have on the cohesion of the cohesion of the
European Union. European Union.
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic wil (or should) lead to a Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic wil (or should) lead to a
revised definition of U.S. national security, particularly one that is less military-centric and more revised definition of U.S. national security, particularly one that is less military-centric and more
focused on what are sometimes cal ed human-security-oriented chal enges or global issues, such focused on what are sometimes cal ed human-security-oriented chal enges or global issues, such
as climate change, that have sometimes been more at the periphery of U.S. national security as climate change, that have sometimes been more at the periphery of U.S. national security
~~policy and plans. Such a change in definition could lead to a changed al ocation of funding~~
~~between the Department of Defense (DOD) and other government agencies that perform national-~~
~~security-related tasks, a realignment of resources within DOD between combat-oriented programs~~
~~and other programs (such as those related to DOD’s mission of providing defense support of civil~~
~~authorities), and perhaps a changed al ocation of funding among the agencies other than DOD~~
~~that perform national-security-related tasks.~~

5 For brief discussions of the impacts of World War I on societies and governments, see, for example, Robert W ilde, “T he Consequences of World War I, Political and Social Effects of the War to End All Wars,” ThoughtCo., July 10, 2019; John Horne, “ T he First World War: the Aftermath, T he Years Following the End of the War Were Marked by More Wars, Political Upheaval and Deep Social Change,” Irish Tim es, April 24, 2018; Steven Mintz, “ Historical Context: T he Global Effect of World War I,” History Now (Gilder Lehrm an Institute of Am erican History) , undated, accessed April 16, 2020; Margaret MacMillan, “ World War I: T he War T hat Changed Everything,” Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2014; Steven Erlanger, “ T he War to End All Wars? Hardly. But It Did Change T hem Forever. ” New York Tim es, June 26, 2014; Jay Winter, “ How the Great War Shaped the World,” Atlantic, World War I issue (September 29, 2014); Kathleen Haley, “ 100 Years after WWI: T he Lasting Impacts of the Great War ,” Media, Law & Policy (Syracuse University), July 28, 2014; “ Aftermath of World War I,” Wikipedia, updated April 11, 2020, accessed , July 28, 2014; “ Aftermath of World War I,” Wikipedia, updated April 11, 2020, accessed
April 16, 2020. April 16, 2020.
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policy and plans. Such a change in definition could lead to a changed al ocation of funding between the Department of Defense (DOD) and other government agencies that perform national-security-related tasks, a realignment of resources within DOD between combat-oriented programs and other programs (such as those related to DOD’s mission of providing defense support of civil authorities), and perhaps a changed al ocation of funding among the agencies other than DOD that perform national-security-related tasks. U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations ~~U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations~~
Some observers have focused on the question of whether Some observers have focused on the question of whether ~~the~~ large federal expenditures large federal expenditures ~~being~~
made in response to the domestic U.S. economic effects of the pandemic, and the impactmade in response to the domestic U.S. economic effects of the pandemic, and the impact of these these
expenditures expenditures ~~wil have~~ on the federal budget deficit and federal debt, could lead to greater on the federal budget deficit and federal debt, could lead to greater
constraints in coming years on U.S. defense spending levels. As a follow-on matter, these constraints in coming years on U.S. defense spending levels. As a follow-on matter, these
observers are observers are additional yadditional y focusing on the question of whether responding to such increased focusing on the question of whether responding to such increased
constraints wil (or should) lead to revisions in U.S. defense strategy, changes in U.S. defense constraints wil (or should) lead to revisions in U.S. defense strategy, changes in U.S. defense
programs, and a programs, and a reduction or termination of certain overseas U.S. military operations. reduction or termination of certain overseas U.S. military operations.
U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and
Refugee Policy
Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic is providing a new lens Some observers have focused on the question of whether the pandemic is providing a new lens
through which to measure the value of U.S. foreign assistance, international debt relief, and through which to measure the value of U.S. foreign assistance, international debt relief, and
refugee policy in promoting U.S. interests, particularly in connection with the previously refugee policy in promoting U.S. interests, particularly in connection with the previously
mentioned issue of whether to revise the definition of U.S. national security to make it less mentioned issue of whether to revise the definition of U.S. national security to make it less
military-centric. military-centric.
Non-state Actors
Some observers have focused on how non-state actors such as international terrorist and criminal Some observers have focused on how non-state actors such as international terrorist and criminal
organizations are reacting to the pandemic, and on how much priority should be given to organizations are reacting to the pandemic, and on how much priority should be given to
countering such actors in the future, particularly in a context of a changed definition of U.S. countering such actors in the future, particularly in a context of a changed definition of U.S.
national security. national security.
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than ~~COVID-19~~
the Pandemic Some observers have focused on whether responding to the pandemic is affecting the time and Some observers have focused on whether responding to the pandemic is affecting the time and
resources that U.S. leaders and agencies can devote to addressing other international issues of resources that U.S. leaders and agencies can devote to addressing other international issues of
concern to the United States that predate but continue to exist in paral el with the pandemic. concern to the United States that predate but continue to exist in paral el with the pandemic. In the earlier months of the pandemic, U.S. U.S.
officials warned other countries to not take actions during the pandemic to chal enge U.S. officials warned other countries to not take actions during the pandemic to chal enge U.S.
interests around the world or otherwise test U.S. resolve or interests around the world or otherwise test U.S. resolve or responsiveness on the thinking that responsiveness on the thinking that
the pandemic the pandemic iswas distracting the U.S. government from other distracting the U.S. government from other concerns or reducing U.S. capacity concerns or reducing U.S. capacity
for responding to any such chal enges. for responding to any such chal enges.
Role of Congress
A In the earlier months of the pandemic, a few observers few observers ~~have~~ focused on the issue of how the pandemic focused on the issue of how the pandemic ~~has~~had affected Congress’s activities affected Congress’s activities
for conducting oversight of the Administration’s foreign policy for conducting oversight of the Administration’s foreign policy actions. actions.
~~Further Reading~~
Appendices with CRS Reports and Additional Writings For further reading on the topics outlined above, see the CRS reports presented iFor further reading on the topics outlined above, see the CRS reports presented in Appendix A
and the additional writings presented i and the additional writings presented in Appendix B.
Congressional Research Service 8 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Potential Issues for Congress
Potential issues for Congress regarding implications of the pandemic for the international security Potential issues for Congress regarding implications of the pandemic for the international security
environment and the U.S. role in the world include but are not limited to the following: environment and the U.S. role in the world include but are not limited to the following:
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

 Will the pandemic change the international security environment, and if so, in  Will the pandemic change the international security environment, and if so, in
what ways? How clearly can potential changes be anticipated? what ways? How clearly can potential changes be anticipated?
 How should the United States respond to potential changes in the international  How should the United States respond to potential changes in the international
security environment arising from the pandemic and its effects, particularly in security environment arising from the pandemic and its effects, particularly in
light of uncertainty regarding the precise nature and likelihood of these changes? light of uncertainty regarding the precise nature and likelihood of these changes?
How might U.S. action or inaction influence or accelerate these changes? How might U.S. action or inaction influence or accelerate these changes?
 What does the pandemic demonstrate about the role of the United States as a  What does the pandemic demonstrate about the role of the United States as a
global leader? What impact, if any, wil the U.S. domestic response to the global leader? What impact, if any, wil the U.S. domestic response to the
pandemic have on the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be pandemic have on the ability of the United States in the future to offer itself or be
accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues, or to accepted by other countries as a global leader on other international issues, or to
serve as a model for other countries to emulate in terms of their own political serve as a model for other countries to emulate in terms of their own political
systems, governance, and economic models? systems, governance, and economic models?
 What actions is the Administration developing to respond to potential changes in  What actions is the Administration developing to respond to potential changes in
the international security environment arising from the pandemic? Does the international security environment arising from the pandemic? Does
Congress have sufficient visibility into these actions? Are these actions Congress have sufficient visibility into these actions? Are these actions
appropriate and sufficient? What metrics should Congress use to assess them? appropriate and sufficient? What metrics should Congress use to assess them?
 What implications do potential changes in the international security environment  What implications do potential changes in the international security environment
arising from the pandemic have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing arising from the pandemic have for the role of Congress in setting and overseeing
the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy? Is Congress appropriately the execution of U.S. foreign and defense policy? Is Congress appropriately
organized for maintaining Congress as a co-equal branch of government relative organized for maintaining Congress as a co-equal branch of government relative
to the executive branch in addressing these potential changes? If the pandemic to the executive branch in addressing these potential changes? If the pandemic
becomes a world-changing event for the international security environment and becomes a world-changing event for the international security environment and
the U.S. role in the world, what implications, if any, might that have for the U.S. role in the world, what implications, if any, might that have for
congressional organization and operations? congressional organization and operations?
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Appendix A. Related CRS Reports
CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of specific issues discussed in this report CRS reports that provide more in-depth discussions of specific issues discussed in this report
include the following, which are presented in alphabetical order of their titles: include the following, which are presented in alphabetical order of their titles:36
 CRS Insight IN11198,  CRS Insight IN11198, Bolivia Postpones May Elections Amidst COVID-19
Outbreak, by Clare Ribando Seelke. , by Clare Ribando Seelke.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10525,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10525, Can the United States Sue China over COVID-19
in an International Court?, by Stephen P. Mulligan. , by Stephen P. Mulligan.
 CRS  CRS In Focus IF11532, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Impact in Africa, coordinated by Alexis Arieff.  CRS Report R46209, Report R46209, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: CRS
Experts, by Matthew B. Barry. (Includes a section listing CRS experts on , by Matthew B. Barry. (Includes a section listing CRS experts on
international response activities relating to the COVD-19 pandemic.) international response activities relating to the COVD-19 pandemic.)
 CRS Report R46354,  CRS Report R46354, COVID-19 and China: A Chronology of Events (December
2019-January 2020), by Susan V. Lawrence. , by Susan V. Lawrence.
 CRS Insight IN11496,  CRS Insight IN11496, COVID-19 and Emerging Global Patterns of Financial
Crime, by Liana W. Rosen. , by Liana W. Rosen.
 CRS In Focus IF11606,  CRS In Focus IF11606, COVID-19 and Foreign Assistance: Congressional
Oversight Framework and Current Activities, by Nick M. Brown and Emily M. , by Nick M. Brown and Emily M.
Morgenstern. Morgenstern.
 CRS In Focus IF11496,  CRS In Focus IF11496, COVID-19 and Foreign Assistance: Issues for Congress, ,
by Nick M. Brown, Marian L. Lawson, and Emily M. Morgenstern. by Nick M. Brown, Marian L. Lawson, and Emily M. Morgenstern.
 CRS In Focus IF11575,  CRS In Focus IF11575, COVID-19 and Global Food Security: Issues for
Congress, by Alyssa R. Casey and Emily M. Morgenstern. , by Alyssa R. Casey and Emily M. Morgenstern.
 CRS Insight IN11288,  CRS Insight IN11288, COVID-19 and the Defense Industrial Base: DOD
Response and Legislative Considerations, by Heidi M. Peters. , by Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11279,  CRS Insight IN11279, COVID-19 and U.S. Iran Policy, by Kenneth Katzman. , by Kenneth Katzman.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10424,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10424, COVID-19: An Overview of Trade-Related
Measures to Address Access to Medical Goods, by Nina M. Hart. , by Nina M. Hart.
 CRS Report R46633,  CRS Report R46633, COVID-19 Vaccines: Global Health Issues, coordinated by , coordinated by
Sara M. Tharakan Sara M. Tharakan
 CRS Report R46304,  CRS Report R46304, COVID-19: China Medical Supply Chains and Broader
Trade Issues, coordinated by Karen M. Sutter. , coordinated by Karen M. Sutter.
 CRS Insight IN11387,  CRS Insight IN11387, COVID-19: Defense Production Act (DPA) Developments
and Issues for Congress, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11305,  CRS Insight IN11305, COVID-19: Defense Support of Civil Authorities, by , by
Lawrence Kapp and Alan Ott. Lawrence Kapp and Alan Ott.
 CRS In Focus IF11421,  CRS In Focus IF11421, COVID-19: Global Implications and Responses, by Sara , by Sara
M. Tharakan et al. M. Tharakan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11280, COVID-19: Industrial Mobilization and Defense
Production Act (DPA) Implementation, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
~~Peters.~~

36 Additional CRS reports that do not include COVID-19 in their titles and are not listed here may include discussions of Additional CRS reports that do not include COVID-19 in their titles and are not listed here may include discussions of
the international implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. the international implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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 CRS Insight  CRS Insight IN11280, COVID-19: Industrial Mobilization and Defense Production Act (DPA) Implementation, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.  CRS Insight IN11481, IN11481, COVID-19 International Responses: Resources for
Comparison with U.S. Policies, by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan. , by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Insight IN11583,  CRS Insight IN11583, COVID-19 International Responses: Resources for the
117th Congress, by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan. , by Hannah Fischer and Sara M. Tharakan.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10436,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10436, COVID-19: International Trade and Access to
Pharmaceutical Products, by Nina M. Hart. , by Nina M. Hart.
 CRS In Focus IF11525,  CRS In Focus IF11525, COVID-19: National Security and Defense Strategy, by , by
Kathleen J. McInnis. Kathleen J. McInnis.
 CRS Video WVB00330,  CRS Video WVB00330, COVID-19 Public Health Series: Global Health and
Development, by Sara M. Tharakan et al. , by Sara M. Tharakan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11435,  CRS Insight IN11435, COVID-19-Related Suspension of Nonimmigrant Entry, ,
by Jil H. Wilson. by Jil H. Wilson.
 CRS Report R46342,  CRS Report R46342, COVID-19: Role of the International Financial
Institutions, by Rebecca M. Nelson and Martin A. Weiss. , by Rebecca M. Nelson and Martin A. Weiss.
 CRS Insight IN11273,  CRS Insight IN11273, COVID-19: The Basics of Domestic Defense Response, ,
coordinated by Michael J. Vassalotti. coordinated by Michael J. Vassalotti.
 CRS In Focus IF11434,  CRS In Focus IF11434, COVID-19: U.S.-China Economic Considerations, by , by
Karen M. Sutter and Michael D. Sutherland. Karen M. Sutter and Michael D. Sutherland.
 CRS Insight IN11470,  CRS Insight IN11470, Defense Production Act (DPA): Recent Developments in
Response to COVID-19, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS In Focus IF11635,  CRS In Focus IF11635, Europe, COVID-19, and U.S. Relations, by Kristin , by Kristin
Archick et al. Archick et al.
 CRS In Focus IF11551,  CRS In Focus IF11551, Export Restrictions in Response to the COVID-19
Pandemic, by Christopher A. Casey and Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs. , by Christopher A. Casey and Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs.
 CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10467,  CRS Legal Sidebar LSB10467, Foreign Sovereign Immunity and COVID-19
Lawsuits Against China, by Jennifer K. Elsea. , by Jennifer K. Elsea.
 CRS Insight IN11493,  CRS Insight IN11493, Global Economic Growth Forecasts: Impact of COVID-
19, by James K. Jackson. , by James K. Jackson.
 CRS Report R46430,  CRS Report R46430, Global Democracy and Human Rights Impacts of COVID-
19: In Brief, coordinated by Michael A. Weber. , coordinated by Michael A. Weber.
 CRS In Focus IF11548,  CRS In Focus IF11548, Helping U.S. Citizens Abroad During the COVID-19
Pandemic and Other International Crises: Role of the Department of State, by , by
Cory R. Gil . Cory R. Gil .
 CRS  CRS ~~Report R46270, Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, coordinated by~~
~~James K. Jackson.~~
In Focus IF11796, Global COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution, coordinated by Sara M. Tharakan.  CRS Report R46270, Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, coordinated by James K. Jackson.  CRS Video WVB00380, Impact of COVID-19 on Health Systems in Africa: A Dialogue with Experts, by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.  CRS In Focus IF11537,  CRS In Focus IF11537, Intelligence Community Support to Pandemic
Preparedness and Response, by Michael E. DeVine. , by Michael E. DeVine.
Congressional Research Service 11 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment  CRS In Focus IF11581,  CRS In Focus IF11581, Latin America and the Caribbean: Impact of COVID-19, ,
by Mark P. Sullivan et al. by Mark P. Sullivan et al.
 CRS Insight IN11535,  CRS Insight IN11535, Mexican Drug Trafficking and Cartel Operations amid
COVID-19, by June S. Beittel and Liana W. Rosen. , by June S. Beittel and Liana W. Rosen.
 CRS Insight IN11619,  CRS Insight IN11619, New COVID-19 Defense Production Act (DPA) Actions:
Implementation Considerations, by Michael H. Cecire, Nina M. Hart, and Heidi , by Michael H. Cecire, Nina M. Hart, and Heidi
M. Peters. M. Peters.
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 CRS Insight IN11593,  CRS Insight IN11593, New Presidential Directives on the Defense Production
Act (DPA) and the COVID-19 Pandemic, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters. Peters.
 CRS Report R46319,  CRS Report R46319, Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): Q&A on Global
Implications and Responses, coordinated by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther. , coordinated by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS In Focus IF11532,  CRS In Focus IF11532, Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Impact in
Africa, coordinated by Alexis Arieff. , coordinated by Alexis Arieff.
 CRS In Focus  CRS In Focus IF11822, Origins of the COVID-19 Pandemic, coordinated by Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.  CRS In Focus IF11480, IF11480, Overview: The Department of Defense and COVID-19, ,
coordinated by Kathleen J. McInnis coordinated by Kathleen J. McInnis.  CRS In Focus IF11858, Potential WTO TRIPS Waiver and COVID-19, by Shayerah I. Akhtar and Ian F. Fergusson.  CRS Insight IN11662, Potential WTO TRIPS Waiver and COVID-19, by Shayerah I. Akhtar and Ian F. Fergusson. .
 CRS Insight IN11365,  CRS Insight IN11365, President Trump Criticizes VOA Coverage of China’s
COVID-19 Response, by Thomas Lum and Matthew C. Weed. , by Thomas Lum and Matthew C. Weed.
 CRS Insight IN11231,  CRS Insight IN11231, The Defense Production Act (DPA) and COVID-19: Key
Authorities and Policy Considerations, by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M. , by Michael H. Cecire and Heidi M.
Peters. Peters.
 CRS Insight IN11337,  CRS Insight IN11337, The Defense Production Act (DPA) and the COVID-19
Pandemic: Recent Developments and Policy Considerations, by Michael H. , by Michael H.
Cecire and Heidi M. Peters. Cecire and Heidi M. Peters.
 CRS In Focus IF11029,  CRS In Focus IF11029, The Venezuela Regional Humanitarian Crisis and
COVID-19, by Rhoda Margesson and Clare Ribando Seelke. , by Rhoda Margesson and Clare Ribando Seelke.
 CRS Insight IN11369,  CRS Insight IN11369, U.S. Funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), ,
by Luisa Blanchfield and Tiaji Salaam-Blyther. by Luisa Blanchfield and Tiaji Salaam-Blyther.
 CRS Insight IN11325,  CRS Insight IN11325, U.S. Travel and Tourism and COVID-19, by Michaela D. , by Michaela D.
Platzer. Platzer.
 CRS In Focus IF11494,  CRS In Focus IF11494, Wildlife Trade, COVID-19, and Other Zoonotic
Diseases, by Pervaze A. Sheikh and Katarina C. O'Regan. , by Pervaze A. Sheikh and Katarina C. O'Regan.
 CRS In Focus IF11513,  CRS In Focus IF11513, WTO: Ministerial Delay, COVID-19, and Ongoing
Issues, by Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs, Rachel F. Fefer, and Ian F. Fergusson. , by Cathleen D. Cimino-Isaacs, Rachel F. Fefer, and Ian F. Fergusson.
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Appendix B. Additional Writings
In presenting sources of additional reading, this appendix includes some examples of writings In presenting sources of additional reading, this appendix includes some examples of writings
reflecting various perspectives on the potential implications of the pandemic on the international reflecting various perspectives on the potential implications of the pandemic on the international
security environment and the U.S. role in the world, organized by specific themes or topics. security environment and the U.S. role in the world, organized by specific themes or topics.
Within each section, the items are presented in chronological order, with the most recent on top. Within each section, the items are presented in chronological order, with the most recent on top.
For For ~~some~~most of the sections, additional citations with dates earlier than that of the last item listed in of the sections, additional citations with dates earlier than that of the last item listed in
the section can be found in previous versions of this CRS report. the section can be found in previous versions of this CRS report.
General/Multitopic
Anthony Faiola, “Pandemic-Driven Hunger Is Making the World More Unequal,” Washington Post, July 12, 2021. Alex Ward, “The Pandemic’s Impact on Our World Is Only Just Beginning, The US Intel igence Community Says the Coronavirus Wil Impact You for Years to Come, Even If You Didn’t Get Sick,” Vox, April 14, 2021. Dimitris Valatsas and Patrycja Koszykowska, “COVID-19’s Baby Bust, Disasters Usual y Come With Fal ing Birth Rates. But This Time, They Might Not Recover Unless Governments Take Action Now,” Foreign Policy, April 9, 2021. Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Intel igence Report Warns of Global Consequences of Social Fragmentation, The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Highlighted Weaknesses of the International Order, Said the Report, Which Is Issued Every Four Years,” New York Times, April 8, 2021. Warren P. Strobel and Dustin Volz, “Covid-19 Fuels Inequality, Political Divide, Authoritarianism World-Wide, U.S. Intel igence Analysts Say, Quadrennial Global Trends Report Also Warns Privacy Wil ‘Effectively Disappear’ and Synthetic Media Wil ‘Distort Truth and Reality,’” Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2021. Laurie Goering, “African Leaders Warn COVID-19 Crisis Harming Climate Adaptation Push,” Reuters, April 6, 2021. Meghan Benton, Jeanne Batalova, Samuel Davidoff-Gore, and Timo Schmidt, COVID-19 and the State of Global Mobility in 2020, Migration Policy Institute, April 2021, 57 pp. Michael Varnum, Cendri Hutcherson, and Igor Grossmann, “Everyone Was Wrong on the Pandemic’s Societal Impact, In March 2020, a Study Asked Experts and Laypeople for Their Predictions. Neither Group Came Close to Being Right,” Foreign Policy, March 18, 2021. Bastian Giegerich, Fenel a McGerty, and Peter Round, The Geo-Economics and Geopolitics of COVID-19: Implications for European Security, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), March 2021, 23 pp. (Posted online March 16, 2021.) Fabio Teixeira, “Over 20 Countries Found Weakening Environmental Protection During Fabio Teixeira, “Over 20 Countries Found Weakening Environmental Protection During
Pandemic,” Pandemic,” Reuters, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Edward Alden, “The Human Cost of Endless Pandemic Border Closures, One Year after the Edward Alden, “The Human Cost of Endless Pandemic Border Closures, One Year after the
World Declared Borders Shut, There Is Stil No Plan to Reduce the Toll on Mil ions of Lives,” World Declared Borders Shut, There Is Stil No Plan to Reduce the Toll on Mil ions of Lives,”
Foreign Policy, February 26, 2021. , February 26, 2021.
Simon Lester Huan Zhu, “The Danger of Blindly Navigating Data Nationalism, Digital Trade and Simon Lester Huan Zhu, “The Danger of Blindly Navigating Data Nationalism, Digital Trade and
the Flow of Digital Information Are Certain to Grow in Prominence in the Future. The the Flow of Digital Information Are Certain to Grow in Prominence in the Future. The
Congressional Research Service 13 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Coronavirus Pandemic Has Pushed Their Growth Curve Along,” Coronavirus Pandemic Has Pushed Their Growth Curve Along,” National Interest, February 21, , February 21,
2021. 2021.
Judd Devermont, Judd Devermont, A Post-Covid-19 Reset, The Future of Africa’s Foreign Partnerships, Center for , Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), February 2021, 14 pp. Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), February 2021, 14 pp.
John R. Al en et al., “The World After the Coronavirus, We Asked 12 Leading Thinkers to Predict John R. Al en et al., “The World After the Coronavirus, We Asked 12 Leading Thinkers to Predict
What Happens in 2021 and Beyond,” What Happens in 2021 and Beyond,” Foreign Policy, January 2, 2021. , January 2, 2021.
IISS Manama Dialogue 2020 Special Publication: The Strategic and Geo-economic Implications
of the COVID-19 Pandemic, International Institute for Strategic Studies, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), December 2020, , December 2020, 54 pp. 54 pp.
Colum Lynch, “U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague, United Nations Diplomats and Civil Colum Lynch, “U.N. Peacemaking in the Age of Plague, United Nations Diplomats and Civil
Servants Fear Peace Efforts in Geneva May Aid the Spread of The Coronavirus,” Servants Fear Peace Efforts in Geneva May Aid the Spread of The Coronavirus,” Foreign Policy, ,
November 13, 2020. November 13, 2020.
Matthew Lavietes, “U.N. Says Pandemic Wil Slow Already Miniscule Progress in Women’s Matthew Lavietes, “U.N. Says Pandemic Wil Slow Already Miniscule Progress in Women’s
Rights,” Rights,” Reuters, October 20, 2020. , October 20, 2020.
Travis Bubenik, “Costlier Than War: Researchers Put Pandemic’s [U.S.] Price Tag at $16 Travis Bubenik, “Costlier Than War: Researchers Put Pandemic’s [U.S.] Price Tag at $16
Tril ion,” Tril ion,” Courthouse News Service, October 12, 2020. , October 12, 2020.
Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19 Might Not Change the World, Pandemics Are Not Always Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19 Might Not Change the World, Pandemics Are Not Always
Transformative Events. While Some Worrying Preexisting Trends Could Accelerate, It’s Incorrect Transformative Events. While Some Worrying Preexisting Trends Could Accelerate, It’s Incorrect
to Assume that the Coronavirus Wil End Globalization, Kil Liberal Democracy, or Enhance to Assume that the Coronavirus Wil End Globalization, Kil Liberal Democracy, or Enhance
China’s Soft Power,” China’s Soft Power,” Foreign Policy, October 9, 2020. , October 9, 2020.
IGCC Experts, “Global Cooperation in the Time of COVID-19,” Institute on Global Conflict and IGCC Experts, “Global Cooperation in the Time of COVID-19,” Institute on Global Conflict and
Cooperation, UC San Diego, October 5, 2020. Cooperation, UC San Diego, October 5, 2020.
Vivek Wadhwa, “The Genetic Engineering Genie Is Out of the Bottle, the Next Pandemic Could Vivek Wadhwa, “The Genetic Engineering Genie Is Out of the Bottle, the Next Pandemic Could
be Bioengineered in Someone’s Garage Using Cheap and Widely Available Technology,” be Bioengineered in Someone’s Garage Using Cheap and Widely Available Technology,” Foreign
Policy, September 11, 2020. , September 11, 2020.
Sohini Chatterjee and Mark P. Lagon, “The Cataclysmic Great Power Chal enge Everyone Saw Sohini Chatterjee and Mark P. Lagon, “The Cataclysmic Great Power Chal enge Everyone Saw
Coming, Violent Extremism, Migration, Pandemics, and Climate Change Are Among the Coming, Violent Extremism, Migration, Pandemics, and Climate Change Are Among the
~~Congressional Research Service~~
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Burgeoning List of Fundamental Chal enges That Wil Require Transnational Cooperation and Burgeoning List of Fundamental Chal enges That Wil Require Transnational Cooperation and
Collaboration,” Collaboration,” National Interest, August 28, 2020. , August 28, 2020.
Edward Alden, “The World Needs to Reopen Borders Before It’s Too Late, Even As They Edward Alden, “The World Needs to Reopen Borders Before It’s Too Late, Even As They
Struggle to Control the Pandemic, Governments Should Move Quickly to Reopen Borders Struggle to Control the Pandemic, Governments Should Move Quickly to Reopen Borders
Instead of Giving in to Xenophobia, Nationalism, and Il usions of Autarky,” Instead of Giving in to Xenophobia, Nationalism, and Il usions of Autarky,” Foreign Policy, ,
August 25, 2020. August 25, 2020.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19,” Daniel W. Drezner, “The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19,”
Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020. Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020.
Michael R. Kenwick and Beth A. Simmons, “Pandemic Response as Border Politics,” Cambridge Michael R. Kenwick and Beth A. Simmons, “Pandemic Response as Border Politics,” Cambridge
University Press, August 19, 2020. University Press, August 19, 2020.
Mohan Malik, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks,” Mohan Malik, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks,” Strategist (Australian Strategic
Policy Institute), August 4, 2020. , August 4, 2020.
Seth A. Johnston, “The Pandemic and the Limits of Realism, The Foundational International Seth A. Johnston, “The Pandemic and the Limits of Realism, The Foundational International
Relations Theory Has Been Revealed to Be Far Less Realistic Than It Claims,” Relations Theory Has Been Revealed to Be Far Less Realistic Than It Claims,” Foreign Policy, ,
June 24, 2020. June 24, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 14 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment James Goldgeier and Carmen Iezzi Mezzera, “How to Rethink the Teaching of International James Goldgeier and Carmen Iezzi Mezzera, “How to Rethink the Teaching of International
Relations, As Universities Struggle to Respond to the Ongoing Pandemic, Here’s What They Relations, As Universities Struggle to Respond to the Ongoing Pandemic, Here’s What They
Should Focus On,” Should Focus On,” Foreign Policy, June 12, 2020. , June 12, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “The Pandemic’s 5 Silver Linings, The Coronavirus Has Exacted a Terrible Stephen M. Walt, “The Pandemic’s 5 Silver Linings, The Coronavirus Has Exacted a Terrible
Toll—But Some Good Things May Come of It Yet,” Toll—But Some Good Things May Come of It Yet,” Foreign Policy, May 26, 2020. , May 26, 2020.
Tom McTague, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming, Western Capitals Aren’t Tom McTague, “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming, Western Capitals Aren’t
Just Worried About the Risk of a Resurgence in Coronavirus Cases,” Just Worried About the Risk of a Resurgence in Coronavirus Cases,” Atlantic, May 18, 2020. , May 18, 2020.
Stephen M. Walt, “Wil a Global Depression Trigger Another World War? The Coronavirus Stephen M. Walt, “Wil a Global Depression Trigger Another World War? The Coronavirus
Pandemic Has Already Devastated the International Economy. Its Military Fal out Remains to Be Pandemic Has Already Devastated the International Economy. Its Military Fal out Remains to Be
Seen,” Seen,” Foreign Policy, May 13, 2020. , May 13, 2020.
Phil ip Y. Lipscy, “It’s Too Soon to Cal Coronavirus Winners and Losers, Given how much Phil ip Y. Lipscy, “It’s Too Soon to Cal Coronavirus Winners and Losers, Given how much
remains unknown about the virus, talk of success may be premature,” remains unknown about the virus, talk of success may be premature,” Foreign Policy, May 12, , May 12,
2020. 2020.
Alan Nicol, “The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis, Insufficient Water for Washing Alan Nicol, “The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis, Insufficient Water for Washing
Is Likely to Worsen the Coronavirus in the Poorest Nations. There’s a Better Way Forward,” Is Likely to Worsen the Coronavirus in the Poorest Nations. There’s a Better Way Forward,”
Foreign Policy, May 12, 2020. , May 12, 2020.
George H. Nash, “The Coronavirus Pandemic of 2020 in Historical Perspective,” George H. Nash, “The Coronavirus Pandemic of 2020 in Historical Perspective,” National
Review, May 11, 2020. , May 11, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Says Pandemic Is Unleashing a ‘Tsunami of Hate,’” Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Says Pandemic Is Unleashing a ‘Tsunami of Hate,’” Associated
Press, May 8, 2020. , May 8, 2020.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, “Why the Coronavirus Won't Transform International Affairs Like 9/11 Nikolas K. Gvosdev, “Why the Coronavirus Won't Transform International Affairs Like 9/11
Did,” Did,” National Interest, May 5, 2020. , May 5, 2020.
Deepanshu Mohan, “The Geopolitical Contours of a Post-COVID-19 World,” Deepanshu Mohan, “The Geopolitical Contours of a Post-COVID-19 World,” East Asia Forum, ,
May 2, 2020. May 2, 2020.
Andrew Ehrhardt, “Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century,” Andrew Ehrhardt, “Disease and Diplomacy in the 19th Century,” War on the Rocks, April 30, , April 30,
2019. 2019.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Resilience in the Face of the Coronavirus Pandemic, World Politics Review report, May 2020, 47 , World Politics Review report, May 2020, 47
pp. (Includes essays by various authors with the titles “Planning for the World After the pp. (Includes essays by various authors with the titles “Planning for the World After the
Coronavirus Pandemic,” “What It Wil Take to Save Economies From the Coronavirus Coronavirus Pandemic,” “What It Wil Take to Save Economies From the Coronavirus
Pandemic,” “Building Trust, Confidence and Collective Action in the Age of COVID-19,” “Why Pandemic,” “Building Trust, Confidence and Collective Action in the Age of COVID-19,” “Why
Tackling Corruption Is Crucial to the Global Coronavirus Response,” and “The Geography of Tackling Corruption Is Crucial to the Global Coronavirus Response,” and “The Geography of
COVID-19 and a Vulnerable Global Food System.”) COVID-19 and a Vulnerable Global Food System.”)
Iain King, “How Covid-19 Wil Change Us: Seven Lessons from the Most Consequential Iain King, “How Covid-19 Wil Change Us: Seven Lessons from the Most Consequential
Pandemics in History,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 29, 2020. Pandemics in History,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 29, 2020.
Dmitri K. Simes, “The Perfect Storm,” Dmitri K. Simes, “The Perfect Storm,” National Interest, April 24, 2020. , April 24, 2020.
Fred Kaplan, “What Happens if Oil Doesn’t Recover? If Demand Doesn’t Pick Up This Summer, Fred Kaplan, “What Happens if Oil Doesn’t Recover? If Demand Doesn’t Pick Up This Summer,
We Could See Major Shifts in Global Power,” We Could See Major Shifts in Global Power,” Slate, April 23, 2020. , April 23, 2020.
Barry R. Posen, “Do Pandemics Promote Peace? Why Sickness Slows the March to War,” Barry R. Posen, “Do Pandemics Promote Peace? Why Sickness Slows the March to War,”
Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2020. , April 23, 2020.
Joseph Cirincione, “How to Prevent War During the Coronavirus Pandemic, How Wil the Joseph Cirincione, “How to Prevent War During the Coronavirus Pandemic, How Wil the
Coronavirus Threaten Global Peace?” Coronavirus Threaten Global Peace?” National Interest, April 22, 2020. , April 22, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 15 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Frank Hoffman, “An American Perspective on Post-Pandemic Geopolitics,” RUSI, April 20, Frank Hoffman, “An American Perspective on Post-Pandemic Geopolitics,” RUSI, April 20,
2020. 2020.
Gordon Bardos, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Force America to Look in the Mirror and Reform?” Gordon Bardos, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Force America to Look in the Mirror and Reform?”
National Interest, April 18, 2020. , April 18, 2020.
Nicholas Eberstadt, “The “New Normal”: Thoughts about the Shape of Things to Come in the Nicholas Eberstadt, “The “New Normal”: Thoughts about the Shape of Things to Come in the
Post-Pandemic World,” National Bureau of Asian Research, April 18, 2020. Post-Pandemic World,” National Bureau of Asian Research, April 18, 2020.
Steve Coll, “Woodrow Wilson’s Case of the Flu, and How Pandemics Change History,” Steve Coll, “Woodrow Wilson’s Case of the Flu, and How Pandemics Change History,” New
Yorker, April 17, 2020. , April 17, 2020.
Ravi Kant, “Coronavirus: An Ice-Nine Moment for the World,” Ravi Kant, “Coronavirus: An Ice-Nine Moment for the World,” Asia Times, April 15, 2020. , April 15, 2020.
Jackson Diehl, “The Pandemic Is Kil ing Truth, Too,” Jackson Diehl, “The Pandemic Is Kil ing Truth, Too,” Washington Post, April 12, 2020. , April 12, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Threatens Global Peace and Security,” Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Threatens Global Peace and Security,”
Associated Press, April 10, 2020. , April 10, 2020.
Richard Haass, “The Pandemic Wil Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It, Not Every Crisis Richard Haass, “The Pandemic Wil Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It, Not Every Crisis
Is a Turning Point, Is a Turning Point, Foreign Affairs, April 7, 2020. , April 7, 2020.
Stratfor Worldview, “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Changing the World—and the Future,” Stratfor Worldview, “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Is Changing the World—and the Future,”
National Interest, April 4, 2020. , April 4, 2020.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Most Counterintuitive Prediction about World Politics and the Daniel W. Drezner, “The Most Counterintuitive Prediction about World Politics and the
Coronavirus, What If Nothing Changes?” Coronavirus, What If Nothing Changes?” Washington Post, March 30, 2020. , March 30, 2020.
Ali Demirdas, “Western Values May Not Survive the Coronavirus. European Unity and American Ali Demirdas, “Western Values May Not Survive the Coronavirus. European Unity and American
Military Power Just Haven’t Held Up,” Military Power Just Haven’t Held Up,” National Interest, March 28, 2020. , March 28, 2020.
John Al en et al., “How the World Wil Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic,” John Al en et al., “How the World Wil Look after the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Foreign Policy, ,
March 20, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 12 authors.) March 20, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 12 authors.)
Maxine Whittaker, “How Infectious Diseases Have Shaped Our Culture, Habits and Language,” Maxine Whittaker, “How Infectious Diseases Have Shaped Our Culture, Habits and Language,”
The Conversation, July 12, 2017. , July 12, 2017.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance~~
World Order, International Institutions, and Global Governance Simon Frankel Pratt and Jamie Levin, “Vaccines Wil Shape the New Geopolitical Order, The Gulf Between Haves and Have-Nots is Only Growing,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2021. Nina Schwalbe, “The World Should Treat Pandemics Like It Treats Chemical Weapons, Plans for a Global Pandemic Treaty Don’t Solve the Problem of China’s Refusal to Cooperate,” Foreign Policy, April 14, 2021. Scott Neuman, “Many World Leaders Cal For Treaty On Future Pandemics,” NPR, March 30, 2021. Helen V. Milner, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, Michael J. Tierney, and Erik Voeten, “Trump, Helen V. Milner, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, Michael J. Tierney, and Erik Voeten, “Trump,
COVID-19, and the Future of International Order, In a New Survey, International Relations COVID-19, and the Future of International Order, In a New Survey, International Relations
Experts Are Pessimistic About the Years to Come,” Experts Are Pessimistic About the Years to Come,” Foreign Policy, October 8, 2020. , October 8, 2020.
Seth Center and Emma Bates, editors, Seth Center and Emma Bates, editors, After Disruption: Historical Perspectives on the Future of
International Order, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 65 , Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 2020, 65
pp. pp.
Hung Tran, Hung Tran, “One World, Two Systems” Takes Shape During the Pandemic, Atlantic Council, , Atlantic Council,
September 2020, 10 pp. September 2020, 10 pp.
Congressional Research Service 16 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Brett D. Schaefer and Daniel e Pletka, “How the WHO Can Earn Back U.S. Support,” Heritage Brett D. Schaefer and Daniel e Pletka, “How the WHO Can Earn Back U.S. Support,” Heritage
Foundation, August 17, 2020. Foundation, August 17, 2020.
Bobo Lo, “Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West, It’s Time Bobo Lo, “Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia and the West, It’s Time
to Rethink Global Governance and its Priorities,” Lowy Institute, July 29, 2020. to Rethink Global Governance and its Priorities,” Lowy Institute, July 29, 2020.
Robert D. Blackwil Thomas Wright, “Why COVID-19 Presents a World Reordering Moment,” Robert D. Blackwil Thomas Wright, “Why COVID-19 Presents a World Reordering Moment,”
National Interest, July 11, 2020. , July 11, 2020.
Jeffrey Cimmino et al., Jeffrey Cimmino et al., A Global Strategy for Shaping the Post-COVID-19 World, Atlantic , Atlantic
Council, 2020 (released July 7, 2020), 52 pp. Council, 2020 (released July 7, 2020), 52 pp.
Mary Robinson, “Multilateralism Offers Hope for a Sea-Change after COVID-19,” Mary Robinson, “Multilateralism Offers Hope for a Sea-Change after COVID-19,” The Hill, June , June
26, 2020. 26, 2020.
Aparna Pande, “India Could Emerge as the Global Power the World Has Been Waiting for After Aparna Pande, “India Could Emerge as the Global Power the World Has Been Waiting for After
COVID,” COVID,” Hudson Institute, June 8, 2020. , June 8, 2020.
James Crabtree, “Welcome to a World of Bubbles, Countries Across Europe and Asia Are James Crabtree, “Welcome to a World of Bubbles, Countries Across Europe and Asia Are
Exploring Special Bilateral Arrangements to Ease Border Restrictions. The Result Could Be a Exploring Special Bilateral Arrangements to Ease Border Restrictions. The Result Could Be a
Globe Fractured Along Epidemiological Lines,” Globe Fractured Along Epidemiological Lines,” Foreign Policy, June 1, 2020. , June 1, 2020.
Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel, Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel, Taking Stock: Where Are Geopolitics
Headed in the COVID-19 Era? Atlantic Council, June 2020, 20 pp. Atlantic Council, June 2020, 20 pp.
~~Samuel Brannen and Kathleen H. Hicks, “World Order after Covid-19,” Center for Strategic and~~
~~International Studies (CSIS), May 28, 2020.~~
~~G. John Ikenberry and Charles A. Kupchan, “Global Distancing, Past Crises Spurred International~~
~~Cooperation. Now Each Country Is Going It Alone,” Washington Post, May 21, 2020.~~
~~Edward Lucas, “Pandemic Scorecard, Covid-19 Is Breaking and Shaping Reputations,” Center~~
~~for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 18, 2020.~~
~~Nick Wadhams, “Pandemic Shatters World Order, Sowing Anger and Mistrust in Its Wake,”~~
Bloomberg, May 17, 2020.
~~Thomas R. Pickering and Atman M. Trivedi, “The International Order Didn’t Fail the Pandemic~~
~~Alone, The United States and China Are Its Crucial Pil ars,” Foreign Affairs, May 14, 2020.~~
~~Damien Cave and Isabel a Kwai, “China Is Defensive. The U.S. Is Absent. Can the Rest of the~~
~~World Fil the Void?” New York Times, May 11, 2020.~~
~~Edward Fishman, “The World Order Is Dead. Here’s How to Build a New One for a Post-~~
~~Coronavirus Era,” Politico, May 3, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
13

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Rebecca Wolfe and Hilary Matfess Sunday, “COVID and Cooperation: The Latest Canary in the~~
~~Coal Mine,” Lawfare, May 3, 2020.~~
~~Joshua Keating, “The Decline of the Nation-State, Trump’s War with the Governors Hints at a~~
~~New Political Order,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2020.~~
~~Yukon Huang and Jeremy Smith, “Pandemic Response Reflects Unlearned Lessons of U.S.-China~~
~~Trade War,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 27, 2020.~~
~~Mihir Sharma, “Diplomacy Is Another Victim of the Virus,” Bloomberg, April 26, 2020.~~
Brahma Chel aney, “The WHO Has Failed the World in its Pandemic Response,” Strategist
(Australian Strategic Policy Institute), April 23, 2020.
~~Wil iam C. Danvers, “The World Bank steps up its role in fighting for the future,” The Hill, April~~
~~22, 2020.~~
~~Eric A. Posner, “The Limits of the World Health Organization,” Lawfare, April 21, 2020.~~
~~Amitav Acharya, “How Coronavirus May Reshape the World Order,” National Interest, April 18,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Joseph S. Nye Jr., “No, the Coronavirus Wil Not Change the Global Order~~U.S. Global Leadership and Role in World Robert Zoel ick, “Liberal Democracies Are Running Out of Time to Save the rest of the Planet from Covid,” Washington Post, July 9, 2021. Derek Thompson, “World War II’s Lesson for After the Pandemic, The U.S. Needs Another Innovation Dream Team,” Atlantic, June 28, 2021. David Adesnik, “America’s Syrian Al ies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine, They Vanquished the Islamic State and Are Now in Desperate Need of Aid,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2021. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Biden Boosts Vaccine-Sharing, Says U.S. Soon Wil Outpace Donations By Russia, China,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 18, 2021. Christian Paz, “America’s Vaccine Nationalism Isn’t Working, The Longer It Takes for the United States to Lead a Global Response, the More the Risks Compound,” Atlantic, May 13, 2021. Karen DeYoung, “Samantha Power Wants to Restore U.S. Prestige by Getting American-made Vaccines ‘Into Arms’ Around the World,” Washington Post, May 11 (updated May 12), 2021. Dan Diamond and Tyler Pager, “‘Where is the plan?’: Biden Pressed on Global Vaccine Strategy, Critics Say the Administration Has Taken a Piecemeal Approach to the Worsening International Crisis,” Washington Post, May 9, 2021. Chelsea Clinton and Achal Prabhala, “Biden Has the Power to Vaccinate the World, He Should Use It,” Atlantic, May 5, 2021. Tom Frieden and Marine Buissonnière, “The U.S. Has the Power to Tamp Down Coronavirus Variants—If We’re Wil ing to Use It,” Politico, March 2, 2021. Gregory B. Poling, “Embracing a Pandemic-Centered Foreign Policy,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), March 1, 2021. Congressional Research Service 17 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Dan Diamond and Jeff Stein, “White House Is Split Over How to Vaccinate the World,” Washington Post, April 30, 2021. Michael Hirsh, “Health Experts Slam Biden’s ‘Massive’ Global Leadership Failure, Biden’s Speech to Congress Ignores His Dithering on COVID-19 Vaccine Patents, Jeopardizing Mil ions of Lives in Other Nations, Critics Say.,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2021. J. Stephen Morrison, Katherine E. Bliss, and Anna McCaffrey, The Time Is Now for U.S. Global Leadership on Covid-19 Vaccines, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 2021, 11 pp. (Posted online April 14, 2021.) Anne Applebaum, “What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World, The U.S. Stumbled Early in the Pandemic, But the Vaccine Rollout Could Reboot the Country’s Image,” Atlantic, April 10, 2021. Azmi Haroun, “Global NGOs Cal on the Biden Administration to Concoct a Plan for Sharing Vaccine Surplus with Nations in Need,” Business Insider, March 30, 2021. Justin Talbot Zorn and Mathias Alencastro, “In Brazil, Vaccine Diplomacy Can Help Save the Climate, Washington Should Bypass Bolsonaro and Open a Direct Dialogue on Amazon Deforestation with Local Leaders in Regions Hit Hard by COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, March 30, 2021. John Oldfield, “We Need US Leadership on Water Security to Combat COVID-19 Global y,” The Hill, March 29, 2021. Thomas J. Bollyky, “Democracies Keep Vaccines for Themselves, President Biden’s Pledge to Mexico Is an Exception from a Stark Pattern.,” Atlantic, March 27, 2021. Dave Lawler, “Biden’s Next Chal enge: Vaccine Diplomacy,” Axios, March 22, 2021. Selam Gebrekidan and Matt Apuzzo, “Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the World, Despite Warnings, American and European Officials Gave Up Leverage that Could Have Guaranteed Access for Bil ions of People. That Risks Prolonging the Pandemic,” New York Times, March 21 (updated May 7), 2021. Jason Marczak and Cristina Guevara, COVID-19 Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Partnership Strategy for the Biden Administration, Atlantic Council, March 2021, 37 pp. (Posted online March 16, 2021.) Colm Quinn, “G-7 Scrambles for Global Vaccine Plan, After Months of Warnings, the Group of ~~,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~April 16, 2020.~~
~~Karen DeYoung and Liz Sly, “Global Institutions Are Flailing in the Face of the Pandemic,”~~
Washington Post, April 15, 2020.
~~Colin H. Kahl and Ariana Berengaut, “Aftershocks: The Coronavirus Pandemic and the New~~
~~World Disorder,” War on the Rocks, April 10, 2020.~~
~~Lanhee J. Chen, “Lost in Beijing: The Story of the WHO, China Broke the World Health~~
~~Organization. The U.S. Has to Fix It or Leave and Start Its Own Group,” Wall Street Journal,~~
~~April 8, 2020.~~
~~Colum Lynch, “Can the United Nations Survive the Coronavirus? In the Absence of U.S.~~
~~Leadership, the U.N. Is Struggling to Carve Out a Role in the Face of What May Be the Greatest~~
~~Threat Since Its Founding,” Foreign Policy, April 8, 2020.~~
~~Timofey V. Bordachev, “Visions Of The Post-Coronavirus World: Russian Expert On Europe~~
~~Bordachev: The Liberal World Order Wil Not Survive,” MEMRI, April 6, 2020.~~
~~Matthew Lee and Edith M. Lederer, “Global Diplomacy Under the Gun in The Time of~~
~~Ccoronavirus,” Associated Press, April 4, 2020.~~
~~Thomas Wright, “Stretching the International Order to Its Breaking Point, The Greatest Error~~
~~That Geopolitical Analysts Can Make May Be Believing That the Crisis Wil Be Over in Three to~~
~~Four Months,” Atlantic, April 4, 2020.~~
Henry A. Kissinger, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Wil Forever Alter the World Order,” Wall Street
Journal, April 3, 2020.
~~Ryan Broderick, “After The Coronavirus Passes, Your World Wil Not Go Back To Normal,~~
~~Before the Pandemic Began, the Systems That Govern Our World Were Brittle. Today, They Are~~
~~Broken. When We Emerge, the World Wil Be Different, and So Wil We,” Buzzfeed News, April~~
~~2, 2020.~~
Rick Gladstone, “U.N. Security Council ‘Missing In Action’ in Coronavirus Fight,” New York
Times, April 2, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
14

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Ian Goldin and Robert Muggah, “End of International Cooperation? How Coronavirus Has~~
~~Changed the World Permanently,” National Interest, March 31, 2020.~~
~~U.S. Global Leadership and Role in World~~
~~Gregory B. Poling, “Embracing a Pandemic-Centered Foreign Policy,” Center for Strategic and~~
~~International Studies (CSIS), March 1, 2021.~~
~~Colm Quinn, “G-7 Scrambles for Global Vaccine Plan, After Months of Warnings, the Group of~~
Wealthy Nations Has Begun to Put Forward Solutions to the Lopsided Distribution of Wealthy Nations Has Begun to Put Forward Solutions to the Lopsided Distribution of
Coronavirus Vaccines,” Coronavirus Vaccines,” Foreign Policy, February 19, 2021. , February 19, 2021.
Emily Rauhala, Erin Cunningham, and Adam Taylor, “White House Announces $4 Bil ion in Emily Rauhala, Erin Cunningham, and Adam Taylor, “White House Announces $4 Bil ion in
Funding for Covax, the Global Vaccine Effort that Trump Spurned,” Funding for Covax, the Global Vaccine Effort that Trump Spurned,” Washington Post, February , February
18, 2021. 18, 2021.
Jan Tore Sanner, “Why the Rich World Cannot Afford to Leave the Poor Behind Jan Tore Sanner, “Why the Rich World Cannot Afford to Leave the Poor Behind on Vaccines,” on Vaccines,”
Government.no (Government of Norway), February 16, 2021. , February 16, 2021.
Alex Leary, “Biden to Join G-7 Leaders in Virtual Meeting to Discuss Pandemic Response,” Alex Leary, “Biden to Join G-7 Leaders in Virtual Meeting to Discuss Pandemic Response,” Wall
Street Journal, February 14, 2021. , February 14, 2021.
Ethan Guil én, “End the Pandemic Faster by Listening to Developing Countries, Biden Has a Ethan Guil én, “End the Pandemic Faster by Listening to Developing Countries, Biden Has a
Golden Opportunity to Help with Global Vaccines,” Golden Opportunity to Help with Global Vaccines,” Foreign Policy, February 8, 2021. , February 8, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 18 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Jonathan Tepperman, “The Global Vaccine Rollout Is Failing—and That Puts Everyone, Jonathan Tepperman, “The Global Vaccine Rollout Is Failing—and That Puts Everyone,
Everywhere, In Danger, The Selfish Reasons the United States and Europe Must Help Poor Everywhere, In Danger, The Selfish Reasons the United States and Europe Must Help Poor
Countries Deal with COVID-19,” Countries Deal with COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, January 28, 2021. , January 28, 2021.
White House, “National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the White House, “National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the
International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological
Preparedness,” National Security Directive 1, White House, January 21, 2021. Preparedness,” National Security Directive 1, White House, January 21, 2021.
Kenneth C. Bril , “COVID-19 Vaccine Lessons for American Diplomacy after Trump,” Kenneth C. Bril , “COVID-19 Vaccine Lessons for American Diplomacy after Trump,” The Hill, ,
January 14, 2021. January 14, 2021.
~~Wil iam Inboden, “The World That COVID Made: What Should American Foreign Policy Do?~~
~~The Pandemic Reminds Us that ‘American Leadership’ Is Not a Trite Euphemism. It Is Arguably~~
~~the Single Most Important Factor in Whether the Arc of History Bends Toward Something Better~~
~~or Something Worse,” Government Executive, December 29, 2021.~~
~~Catherine Kim, “Koreans Believed America Was Exceptional. Then Covid Happened,” Politico,~~
~~December 2, 2020.~~
~~Ryan Berg and Al ison Schwartz, “Latin America Needs Our Assistance on Coronavirus Vaccine~~
~~Distribution,” The Hill, November 18, 2020.~~
~~James Palmer, “Why the United States Can’t Defeat the Coronavirus, For Too Many Americans,~~
~~Disasters Are Things That Happen to Other People, Never Themselves,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~November 18, 2020.~~
~~Devi Sridhar, “Biden Can Make the United States a Global Health Leader Again. Trump~~
~~Withdrew from the Who. Biden Can Rebuild Ties with the Organization and Make the United~~
~~States an Influential Player in the Fight Against COVID-19,” Foreign Policy, November 7, 2020.~~
~~Christopher Mott, “The Death of Exceptionalism and the Birth of a New Foreign Policy,”~~
National Interest, November 1, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
15

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Tom Al ard, “Vaccines, Not Spy Planes: U.S. Misfires in Southeast Asia,” Reuters, October 27,~~
~~2020.~~
~~BBC News, “Global Perception of US Fal s to Two-Decade Low,” BBC News, September 15,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Adam Taylor, “Global Views of U.S. Plunge to New Lows amid Pandemic, Poll Finds,”~~
Washington Post, September 15, 2020.
~~Richard Wike, Janel Fetterolf, and Mara Mordecai, “U.S. Image Plummets International y as~~
~~Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus Badly,” Pew Research Center, September 15, 2020.~~
~~Wil iam J. Burns, “A New U.S. Foreign Policy for the Post-Pandemic Landscape, As the Global~~
~~Order Crumbles, the United States Must Reinvent Its Role in the World,” Carnegie Endowment~~
~~for International Peace, September 9, 2020.~~
~~Editorial Board, “Trump’s Refusal to Join a Global Vaccine Effort Epitomizes an America That’s~~
~~Isolated and Weak,” Washington Post, September 2, 2020.~~
~~El iot Hannon, “The Trump Administration Refuses to Participate in Global Coronavirus Vaccine~~
~~Effort,” Slate, September 2, 2020.~~
~~Scott Neuman, “U.S. Won't Join WHO-Led Coronavirus Vaccine Effort, White House Says,”~~
~~NPR, September 2, 2020.~~
~~Emily Rauhala and Yasmeen Abutaleb, “U.S. Says It Won’t Join WHO-Linked Effort to Develop,~~
~~Distribute Coronavirus Vaccine,” Washington Post, September 1, 2020.~~
~~Karla Zabludovsky, Nishita Jha, and Christopher Mil er, “These Countries Have The Highest~~
~~COVID-19 Infection Rates. This Is What The US Has In Common With Them, ‘The US Is No~~
~~Longer An Example for Other Countries to Follow.,’” BuzzFeed, August 22, 2020.~~
~~Nicole Winfield and Lisa Marie Pane, “US Tops 5 Mil ion Confirmed Virus Cases, to Europe’s~~
~~Alarm,” Associated Press, August 9, 2020.~~
Brett D. Schaefer and Daniel e Pletka, What the World Health Organization Must Do to Earn
Back U.S. Support, Heritage Foundation, August 7, 2020, 7 pp.
~~Wade Davis, “The Unraveling of America, Anthropologist Wade Davis on How COVID-19~~
~~Signals the End of the American Era,” Rolling Stone, August 6, 2020.~~
~~Colby Smith, Eva Szalay, and Katie Martin, “Dollar Blues: Why the Pandemic Is Testing~~
~~Confidence in the US Currency,” Financial Times, July 31, 2020.~~
~~Christopher Smart, “To Avoid a Coronavirus Depression, the U.S. Can’t Afford to Alienate the~~
~~World,” Foreign Policy, July 28, 2020.~~
~~Dan Balz, “America’s Global Standing Is at a Low Point. The Pandemic Made It Worse. Under~~
~~Trump, the United States Retreats from Collaborative Leadership at a Time of Global Crisis,”~~
Washington Post, July 26, 2020.
~~Michael H. Fuchs, “A Foreign Policy for the Post-Pandemic World, How to Prepare for the Next~~
~~Crisis,” Foreign Affairs, July 23, 2020.~~
~~Stephen M. Walt, “How to Ruin a Superpower, Washington’s Status as a Superpower Has Been~~
~~Declining for Years. Trump’s Handling of the Pandemic Is Kil ing It Off,” Foreign Policy, July~~
~~23, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
16

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Jon B. Alterman, “Covid-19, the Iranians, and Us,” Center for Strategic and International Studies~~
~~(CSIS), July 21, 2020.~~
~~China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader~~
China’s Potential Role as a Global Leader Sui-Lee Wee, “They Relied on Chinese Vaccines. Now They’re Battling Outbreaks. More Than 90 Countries Are Using Covid Shots from China. Experts Say Recent Infections in Those Places Should Serve As a Cautionary Tale in the Global Effort to Fight the Disease,” New York Times, June 22 (updated June 28), 2021. Raymond Zhong and Christopher F. Schuetze, “Taiwan Wants German Vaccines. China May Be Standing in Its Way,” New York Times, June 16 (updated June 22), 2021. Associated Press, “Taiwan Says China Exploiting Vaccines for Political Gain,” Associated Press, June 3, 2021. Adam Taylor and Paul Schemm, “China’s Great Vaccine Hope, Sinopharm, Sees Reputation Darkened Amid Covid Spikes in Countries Using It,” Washington Post, June 3, 2021. Uwagbale Edward-Ekpu, “China’s Vaccine Outreach in Africa is Fal ing Short of Beijing’s Pledges,” Quartz Africa, May 21, 2021. Ben Smith, “When Covid Hit, China Was Ready to Tel Its Version of the Story, The Government Has Been Using Its Money and Power to Create an Alternative to a Global News Media Dominated by Outlets like the BBC and CNN,” New York Times, May 9 (updated May 29), 2021. Vincent Ni, “Border Dispute Casts Shadow over China’s Offers of Covid Help for India,” Guardian, April 29, 2021. Isabel Bernhard, “Latin America Believed in Chinese Vaccines. Now It May Have Reason to Rethink, China’s Latest Disclosure Could Reconfigure Regional Politics and Promote Domestic Development Across the Americas,” Diplomat, April 21, 2021. Kareem Fahim and Karen DeYoung, “China Has Made Big Vaccine Promises. When They Come Up Short, Nations Struggle,” Washington Post, April 7, 2021. James Palmer, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Has Mixed Results, Concerns About the Efficacy of Sinovac and Sinopharm Has Dented Their Reputation, Even Among Al ies of Beijing,” Foreign Policy, April 7, 2021. Francisco Urdinez, China’s Improvised Mask Diplomacy in Chile, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2021, 30 pp. (Posted online April 6, 2021.) Richard Javad Heydarian, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Stumbles in Southeast Asia, Delays and Concerns About the Efficacy and Politics of China’s Vaccine Shipments Plague Its Vaccine Drive in the Region,” Al Jazeera, April 5, 2021. Congressional Research Service 19 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Eli Lake, “China’s Claims of Exoneration on Covid Ring Hollow, Even the Head of the World Health Organization Found Its Report on the Pandemic’s Origins Insufficient,” Bloomberg, April, 2, 2021. Emily Rauhala, “WHO Chief, U.S. and Other World Leaders Criticize China for Limiting Access of Team Researching Coronavirus Origins,” Washington Post, March 30, 2021. Rajni George, “At China’s Borders, “Vaccine Passports” Just Got Real, In Announcing It Would Prioritize Travelers Who Had Received Chinese-Made Vaccines, Beijing Sparked Outrage in Countries Where Those Aren’t Available,” Foreign Policy, March 25, 2021. Elliot Hannon, “China’s Happy to Share Its COVID-19 Vaccines, but Not the Data Showing if They Actual y Work,” Slate, March 24, 2021. Eva Dou and Shibani Mahtani, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Stumbles as Clinical Trial Data Remains Absent,” Washington Post, March 23, 2021. Bret Schafer, Amber Frankland, Nathan Kohlenberg, and Etienne Soula, “Influence-enza: How Russia, China, and Iran Have Shaped and Manipulated Coronavirus Vaccine Narratives,” Al iance for Securing Democracy (German Marshal Fud of the United States), March 6, 2021. Huizhong Wu and Kristen Gelineau, “Chinese Vaccines Sweep Much of the World, Despite Huizhong Wu and Kristen Gelineau, “Chinese Vaccines Sweep Much of the World, Despite
Concerns,” Concerns,” Associated Press, March 2, 2021. , March 2, 2021.
Laura Pitel, “Turkey’s Uighurs Fear Betrayal over Chinese Vaccines and Trade, Erdogan Accused Laura Pitel, “Turkey’s Uighurs Fear Betrayal over Chinese Vaccines and Trade, Erdogan Accused
of Toning down Rhetoric about Oppressed Muslims to Avoid Upsetting Beijing,” of Toning down Rhetoric about Oppressed Muslims to Avoid Upsetting Beijing,” Financial
Times, February 24, 2021. , February 24, 2021.
Mordechai Chaziza, “Chinese Health Diplomacy and the Maghreb in the COVID-19 Era,” Mordechai Chaziza, “Chinese Health Diplomacy and the Maghreb in the COVID-19 Era,” Middle
East Institute, February 23, 2021. , February 23, 2021.
Yang Lizhong and Chen Dingding, “Is China’s COVID-19 Diplomacy Working in Southeast Yang Lizhong and Chen Dingding, “Is China’s COVID-19 Diplomacy Working in Southeast
Asia? A Recent Poll Suggests a Mixed Picture for China,” Asia? A Recent Poll Suggests a Mixed Picture for China,” Diplomat, February 20, 2021. , February 20, 2021.
Jason Hung, “In China’s ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ with the Philippines, Both Sides Are Taking Big Jason Hung, “In China’s ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ with the Philippines, Both Sides Are Taking Big
Risks,” East-West Center, February 19, 2021. Risks,” East-West Center, February 19, 2021.
Lucien O. Chauvin, Anthony Faiola, and Eva Dou, “Squeezed Out of the Race for Western Lucien O. Chauvin, Anthony Faiola, and Eva Dou, “Squeezed Out of the Race for Western
Vaccines, Developing Countries Turn to China,” Vaccines, Developing Countries Turn to China,” Washington Post, February 16, 2021. , February 16, 2021.
Erika Kinetz, “Anatomy of a Conspiracy: With COVID, China Took leading Role,” Erika Kinetz, “Anatomy of a Conspiracy: With COVID, China Took leading Role,” Associated
Press, February 15, 2021. , February 15, 2021.
Alex Leary, “U.S. Expresses ‘Deep Concerns’ Over China Withholding Data From Pandemic Alex Leary, “U.S. Expresses ‘Deep Concerns’ Over China Withholding Data From Pandemic
Investigators,” Investigators,” Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2021. , February 13, 2021.
Javier C. Hernández and James Gorman, “On W.H.O. Trip, China Refused to Hand Over Javier C. Hernández and James Gorman, “On W.H.O. Trip, China Refused to Hand Over
Important Data,” Important Data,” New York Times, February 12, 2021. , February 12, 2021.
~~Sui-Lee Wee, “China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring. Delays, Inconsistent~~
~~Data, Spotty Disclosures and the Country’s Attacks on Western Rivals Have Marred Its~~
~~Ambitious Effort to Portray Itself as a Leader in Global Health,” New York Times, January 25,~~
~~2021.~~
Huizhong Wu, “China Pushes Conspiracy Theories on COVID Origin, Vaccines,” Associated
Press, January 25, 2021.
~~Li Yuan, “How Beijing Turned China’s Covid-19 Tragedy to Its Advantage, The Communist~~
~~Party’s Success in Reclaiming the Narrative Has Proved to the World Its Ability to Ral y the~~
~~People to Its Side, No Matter How Stumbling Its Actions Might Be,” New York Times, January 22~~
~~(updated January 24), 2021.~~
~~Agence France-Presse, “Philippines Says China to Donate Half a Mil ion Covid-19 Vaccines,”~~
Yahoo News, January 16, 2021.
~~Sui-Lee Wee and Ernesto Londoño, “Disappointing Chinese Vaccine Results Pose Setback for~~
~~Developing World,” New York Times, January 13 (updated January 15), 2021.~~
~~Amy Qin and Javier C. Hernández, “A Year After Wuhan, China Tel s a Tale of Triumph (and No~~
~~Mistakes), The Chinese Communist Party’s Efforts to Hide Its Missteps Have Taken on New~~
~~Urgency as the Anniversary of the World’s First Covid-19 Lockdown Nears,” New York Times,~~
~~January 10 (updated January 14), 2021.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
17

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Alice Han and Eyck Freymann, “Coronavirus Hasn’t Kil ed Belt and Road, As the Pandemic~~
~~Rages, China’s Strategy Is Becoming More High-Tech And Sophisticated,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~January 6, 2021.~~
~~Emily Rauhala and Lily Kuo, “Politics Frustrate WHO Mission to Search for Origins of~~
~~Coronavirus in China,” Washington Post, January 6, 2021.~~
~~Craig Singleton, “Confronting China’s COVID Con,” The Hill, January 5, 2021.~~
~~Hanns Günther Hilpert and Angela Stanzel,~~ ~~China—Winning the Pandemic… for Now, The~~
~~People’s Republic Is Exuding Strength, but Can They Keep It Up?~~ ~~Stiftung Wissenschaft und~~
~~Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), SWP Comment No. 1, January~~
~~2021, 4 pp.~~
~~Danson Cheong, “China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Not as Simple as Shot in the Arm,” Straits Times,~~
~~December 28, 2020.~~
~~Iain Marlow, Faseeh Mangi, and Kari Soo Lindberg, “China Is Struggling to Get the World to~~
~~Trust Its Vaccines, What Should Have Been a Big Covid Win for Beijing in Building Ties is~~
~~Revealing Widespread Mistrust in China’s Products,” Bloomberg, December 28, 2020.~~
~~Raymond Zhong, Paul Mozur, Jeff Kao, and Aaron Krolik, “No ‘Negative’ News: How China~~
~~Censored the Coronavirus,” New York Times, December 19, 2020.~~
~~CK Tan, “China Forges on with Vaccine Diplomacy amid Pfizer Fanfare,” Nikkei Asia, December~~
~~17, 2020.~~
~~Chris Buckley, “China’s Combative Nationalists See a World Turning Their Way, China’s~~
~~Communist Party Is Pushing the Narrative that the Pandemic Has Proved the Superiority of Its~~
~~Authoritarian Model. The Muscular Message Is Finding Fans at Home,” New York Times,~~
~~December 14, 2020.~~
~~Alex Vines, “China’s Southern Africa Debt Deals Reveal a Wider Plan,” Chatham House,~~
~~December 10, 2020.~~
~~Gordon G. Chang, “China Deliberately Spread The Coronavirus: What Are The Strategic~~
~~Consequences?” Hoover Institution, December 9, 2020.~~
~~Robert G. Kaufman, “Wil The Covid-19 Pandemic Confound Or Enable China’s Strategic~~
~~Ambitions?” Hooever Institution, December 9, 2020.~~
Sha Hua, “China Floats Covid-19 Theories That Point to Foreign Origins, Frozen Food,” New
York Times, December 8, 2020.
~~T.S. Al en, “China’s Pandemic Public Opinion Warfare Alienates Global Audiences,” China Brief,~~
~~December 6, 2020.~~
Javier C. Hernández, “China Peddles Falsehoods to Obscure Origin of Covid Pandemic,” New
York Times, December 6 (updated December 14), 2020.
~~Amy Hawkins and James Thorpe “Don’t Count on China’s Help With a Coronavirus Inquiry,~~
~~Beijing’s COVID-19 Response Has Been a Success Story, and the Communist Party Wants to~~
~~Keep It That Way,” Foreign Policy, December 3, 2020.~~
~~David Culver and Nectar Gan, “China Has Promised Mil ions of Coronavirus Vaccines to~~
~~Countries Global y. And It Is Ready to Deliver Them,” CNN, December 2, 2020.~~
~~Carol Rosenberg, “China Poised to Be First to Distribute Virus Vaccine in Latin America, U.S.~~
~~Official Says,” New York Times, December 2 (updated December 14), 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
18

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Shannon Tiezzi, “China Continues Its COVID-19 Diplomacy in the Pacific, China Held a Second~~
~~‘Special Meeting On Covid-19’ with Pacific Island Countries,” Diplomat, December 1, 2020.~~
~~U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China~~
~~and Russia~~
~~John Bowden, “Kremlin:~~ U.S. Relations and Great Power Competition with China and Russia Robbie Gramer, “U.S. Blunts China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America, The Biden Administration Ships Mil ions of Vaccines to the Region As Its Public Health Crisis Worsens,” Foreign Policy, July 9, 2021. Congressional Research Service 20 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Alexey Kovalev, “The Shocking Enormity of Russia’s Botched Pandemic Response, A Massive Third Wave Is Spreading Unchecked, Anti-vaxxers Are Rampant, and the Kremlin’s Vaccine Diplomacy has failed,” Foreign Policy, July 5, 2021. Tyler Durden, “How China Became The Big Winner Of The COVID Era,” ZeroHedge, July 3, 2021. Sinikukka Saari, Russia’s Corona Diplomacy and Geoeconomic Competition, A Sputnik Moment? Finnish Institute of International Affairs, July 2021, 8 pp. Rintaro Hosokawa, “Vaccines and Rifts Dominate First G-20 Ministers Meeting in 2 Years,” Chinese FM Cal s on Countries to Stop ‘Export Restrictions and Excessive Hoarding,’” Nikkei Asia, June 30, 2021. Shaun Tandon and Gildas Le Roux (Agence France-Presse), “US Urges Covid Cooperation at G20 as China Critical,” Yahoo News, June 29, 2021. Koji Sugimoto and George Yin, “With Vaccine Diplomacy to Taiwan, U.S. and Japan Steal March on China, Vaccine Diplomacy Is Not Just About Winning ‘Hearts and Minds’ but Also Realpolitik,” National Interest, June 28, 2021. Samuel Ramani, “With Sputnik V, Russia Shot Itself in the Foot, High Prices, Delayed Deliveries, and Questions About Efficacy Raise Suspicions about Russia’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Africa,” Foreign Policy, June 24, 2021. Reuben Johnson, “COVID, Hacking, and Spying Helped China Develop a New Stealth Fighter in Record Time, In the West, the Pandemic Put the Defense Industry on Hold. In China, the Military Used the Time to Make Big Advances,” Bulwark, June 23, 2021. Deborah Seligsohn, “Demands for a Lab Leak Investigation Are a Dangerous Distraction, U.S.- China Cooperation Is Vital for Global Health Efforts,” Foreign Policy, June 18, 2021. Josh Rogin, “To Push Back Against Chinese Aggression, Give Taiwan Vaccines,” Washington Post, June 17 (updated June 25), 2021. Niharika Mandhana and Sha Hua, “China Steps Into Covid-19 Vaccine Void in Asia’s Developing Nations, Shots Developed by Chinese Companies Have Been a Conspicuous Part of the Rollouts in the First Half of 2021, Helping Beijing Strengthen Regional Ties,” New York Times, June 16, 2021. Oliver Stuenkel, “Vaccine Diplomacy Boosts China’s Standing in Latin America, Beijing Has Increased Its Leverage in the Region—but Washington Can Stil Stage a Comeback,” Foreign Policy, June 11, 2021. Jack Detsch, “U.S.-China Spat Over Taiwan Extends to Vaccine Diplomacy, The United States Is Providing Hundreds of Thousands of Vaccines Right in China’s Front Yard,” Foreign Policy, June 11, 2021. Matthew Dalton, “France Suspects Russian Role in Campaign to Discredit Pfizer Vaccine, Several French Bloggers Said They Received Emails Offering to Pay for Social-Media Videos Criticizing the Covid-19 Vaccine,” Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2021. Dan De Luce, “China is Using Vaccines to Push Its Agenda in Latin America, and the U.S. Is Behind the Curve, Experts Say, Latin American Officials Say China Has Pushed Their Countries to Cut Ties with Taiwan in Return for Badly Needed Covid-19 Vaccines,” NBC News, May 23, 2021. Congressional Research Service 21 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Michael Martina, “U.S. Says Condemns Political Use of Vaccines after China-Taiwan Tussle,” Reuters, May 14, 2021. Ben Westcott, “China and Russia Want to Vaccinate the Developing World Before the West. It’s Brought Them Closer Than Ever,” CNN, May 11, 2021. Meia Nouwens, The Evolving Nature of China’s Military Diplomacy: From Visits to Vaccines, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), May 2021, 15 pp. (Posted online May 10, 2021.) Iain Marlow, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, and James Paton, “World Turns to China for Vaccines After India, U.S. Stumble,” Bloomberg, May 6 (updated May 7), 2021. Nicholas G. Evans and Mark Eccleston-Turner, “COVID-19 Vaccine Nationalism Wil Cost Lives Worldwide,” Slate, May 3, 2021. Krishna Kumar, “Why America Must Do More to Vaccinate the World’s Population,” National Interest, May 3, 2021. Andrew Higgins, “Russian Attempts to Expand Sputnik Vaccine Set Off Discord in Europe,” New York Times, May 2 (updated May 5), 2021. Miriam Matthews, Katya Migacheva, and Ryan Andrew Brown, Superspreaders of Malign and Subversive Information on COVID-19, Russian and Chinese Efforts Targeting the United States, RAND, 2021, 82 pp. Euronews, “EU Slams Russia and China for Western Vaccines Disinformation Campaign,” Euronews, April 29, 2021. Robin Emmott, “Russia, China sow disinformation to undermine trust in Western vaccines: EU,” Reuters, April 28, 2021. Akhil Ramesh, “On Vaccines, Globalists Are Nationalists and Nationalists Are Gobalists,” The Hill, April 27, 2021. Josh Rogin, “The United States Can’t Ignore China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Latin America,” Washington Post, April 22, 2021. Georgia Leatherdale-Gilholy, “Could India’s Vaccine Diplomacy Displace China?” National Interest, April 20, 2021. Harsh V. Pant and Premesha Saha, “India’s Vaccine Diplomacy Reaches Taiwan,” National Interest, April 20, 2021. Hal Brands, “America’s Come-From-Behind Pandemic Victory, China Was the Global Winner of the Coronavirus Disaster—Until the United States Beat the Odds,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2021. Eckart Woertz and Roie Yel inek, “Vaccine Diplomacy in the MENA Region,” Middle East Institute, April 14, 2021. Dalibor Rohac, “Sputnik V’s Biggest Legacy May Be Political Turmoil, In Eastern European Countries That Have Accepted the Russian Vaccine, Destabilization Has Fol owed,” Foreign Policy, April 14, 2021. Cecilia Yap and Andreo Calonzo, “Philippines Asks U.S. for Vaccine Help as China Tensions Grow,” Bloomberg, April 11, 2021. Congressional Research Service 22 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Reuters Staff, “Taiwan Says China Uses COVID-19 Vaccines to Press Paraguay to Break Ties,” Reuters, April 7, 2021. (See also Bil Bostock, “Taiwan Accused China of Trying to Bribe Paraguay with COVID-19 Vaccines to Make It Stop Recognizing Taiwan,” Business Insider, April 7, 2021; Agence France-Presse, “Taiwan Accuses Beijing of Luring Paraguay with ‘Vaccine Diplomacy,” France 24, April 7, 2021; BBC, “Taiwan Accuses China of ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ in Paraguay,” BBC, April 7, 2021.) Reuters Staff, “Taiwan Says India Helped Paraguay Get Vaccines After China Pressure,” Reuters, April 7, 2021. Luke McGee, “Europe Is Torn Over Whether to Take Putin’s Help on Vaccines,” CNN, April 3, 2021. Georgi Kantchev and Laurence Norman, “With EU’s Covid-19 Vaccine Drive in Disarray, Russia Sees an Opening, Despite Tensions with Moscow, Some EU Leaders Back the Sputnik V Shot, Which Could Offer Kremlin a Soft Power Coup,” Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2021. Tim Gosling, “Russia and China Are Exploiting Europe’s Vaccine Shortfal s, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Has Resigned Over a Secret Delivery of Moscow’s Sputnik V as Brussels Struggles to Keep the EU United,” Foreign Policy, March 31, 2021. Yasmeen Serhan, “Here’s How Russia and China Are Helping the U.S., Beijing and Moscow Are Fil ing the Vaccine Gap That Wealthy Countries Helped Create,” Atlantic, March 30, 2021. Hal Brands, “America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy, China Squandered Its Early Advantages, and Now the U.S. Government and Drug Makers Are Leading a Second-Half Comeback,” Bloomberg, March 23, 2021. Erik Brattberg, “Middle Power Diplomacy in an Age of US-China Tensions,” Washington Quarterly, Spring 202: 219-238. (Published online March 23, 2021.) Otto Lanzavecchia, “Old Friends in Italy Join Russia’s Vaccine Offensive,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), March 19, 2021. Sadanand Dhume, “India Beats China at Vaccine Diplomacy, But New Delhi’s Massive Success Is a Function of Collaboration with the West, Not ‘Self-Reliance,’” Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2021. Austin Bay, “On Point: Russia Joins China's Wuhan Virus Lie Campaign,” Strategy Page, March 17, 2021. John Bowden, “Kremlin: Pressure on Countries to Refuse Russian COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Quite Pressure on Countries to Refuse Russian COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Quite
Unprecedented,’” Unprecedented,’” The Hill, March 16, 2021. , March 16, 2021.
John Grady, “SOUTHCOM’s Fal er: China Used Pandemic to Expand ‘Corrosive, Insidious John Grady, “SOUTHCOM’s Fal er: China Used Pandemic to Expand ‘Corrosive, Insidious
Influence’ in Central, South America, U.S. Influence ‘Eroding,’” Influence’ in Central, South America, U.S. Influence ‘Eroding,’” USNI News, March 16 (updated , March 16 (updated
March 17), 2021. March 17), 2021.
Jeff Pao, “China, Quad Slug It Out in Vaccine Diplomacy Fight, Beijing and Washington Use Jeff Pao, “China, Quad Slug It Out in Vaccine Diplomacy Fight, Beijing and Washington Use
Low-Cost Vaccines to Win Hearts and Minds in Poor and Under-Developed Countries,” Low-Cost Vaccines to Win Hearts and Minds in Poor and Under-Developed Countries,” Asia
Times, March 16, 2021. , March 16, 2021.
Daniele Carminati, “The Ups and Downs of Soft Power in the Asia-Pacific, The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Shifted the Relative ‘Soft power’ Standing of Leading Powers,” Diplomat, March 15, 2021. Ernesto Londoño and Letícia Casado, “Brazil Needs Vaccines. China Is Benefiting,Ernesto Londoño and Letícia Casado, “Brazil Needs Vaccines. China Is Benefiting, China Is a China Is a
Major Supplier of Coronavirus Vaccine, Giving It Enormous Leverage in PandemicMajor Supplier of Coronavirus Vaccine, Giving It Enormous Leverage in Pandemic -Ravaged Congressional Research Service 23 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment ~~-Ravaged~~
Nations. Brazil, Recently Hostile to the Chinese Company Huawei, Has Suddenly Changed Its Nations. Brazil, Recently Hostile to the Chinese Company Huawei, Has Suddenly Changed Its
Stance,” Stance,” New York Times, March 15, 2021. , March 15, 2021.
Edward Lucas, Jake Morris, and Corina Rebegea, Edward Lucas, Jake Morris, and Corina Rebegea, Information Bedlam: Russian and Chinese
Information Operations During Covid-19, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), 2021, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), 2021
~~(posted March 15, 2021), 20 pp.~~, 20 pp. (Posted online March 15, 2021.)
Eric Bel man, “U.S. Taps Indian Covid-19 Vaccine Production Prowess to Inoculate Indo- Eric Bel man, “U.S. Taps Indian Covid-19 Vaccine Production Prowess to Inoculate Indo-
Pacific,” Pacific,” Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2021. , March 14, 2021.
Nathaniel Weixel, “US Comes under Pressure to Share Vaccines with Rest of World,” Nathaniel Weixel, “US Comes under Pressure to Share Vaccines with Rest of World,” The Hill, ,
March 14, 2021. March 14, 2021.
David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, and Jeff Mason, “U.S., India, Japan and Australia Counter David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, and Jeff Mason, “U.S., India, Japan and Australia Counter
China with Bil ion-Dose Vaccine Pact,” China with Bil ion-Dose Vaccine Pact,” Reuters, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
Michael J. Green, “Quad Summit’s Vaccine Deal Is Biden’s Bold First Move in Asia, It’s a Smart Michael J. Green, “Quad Summit’s Vaccine Deal Is Biden’s Bold First Move in Asia, It’s a Smart
Step to Counter China, but the Next Ones Won’t Be as Easy,” Step to Counter China, but the Next Ones Won’t Be as Easy,” Foreign Policy, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
Demetri Sevastopulo, Amy Kazmin, and Jamie Smyth, “US and Asia Al ies Launch Major Demetri Sevastopulo, Amy Kazmin, and Jamie Smyth, “US and Asia Al ies Launch Major
Vaccine Drive to Counter China, The 1bn Covid Jabs Wil be Funded by US and Japan, Made in Vaccine Drive to Counter China, The 1bn Covid Jabs Wil be Funded by US and Japan, Made in
India and Distributed by Australia,” India and Distributed by Australia,” Financial Times, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
David Wainer and Patrick Gil espie, “It’s ‘America First’ on Vaccines as Russia, China Fil Gap,” David Wainer and Patrick Gil espie, “It’s ‘America First’ on Vaccines as Russia, China Fil Gap,”
Bloomberg, March 12, 2021. , March 12, 2021.
Anne Gearan and Miriam Berger, “Biden Faces Pressure to Distribute Vaccines Worldwide, Anne Gearan and Miriam Berger, “Biden Faces Pressure to Distribute Vaccines Worldwide,
While Americans Stil Need Them at Home,” While Americans Stil Need Them at Home,” Washington Post, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Yanzhong Huang, “Vaccine Diplomacy Is Paying Off for China, Beijing Hasn’t Won the Soft- Yanzhong Huang, “Vaccine Diplomacy Is Paying Off for China, Beijing Hasn’t Won the Soft-
Power Stakes, but It Has an Early Lead,” Power Stakes, but It Has an Early Lead,” Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Philip Blenkinsop, “Rich, Developing Nations Wrangle over COVID Vaccine Patents,” Philip Blenkinsop, “Rich, Developing Nations Wrangle over COVID Vaccine Patents,” Reuters, ,
March 10, 2021. March 10, 2021.
Dinko Hanaan Dinko, “How ‘Mask Diplomacy’ Rescued China's Image in Africa, While Beijing Dinko Hanaan Dinko, “How ‘Mask Diplomacy’ Rescued China's Image in Africa, While Beijing
Was Nimbly Pivoting, the U.S. Continued to Let Its Relationships Wither,” Was Nimbly Pivoting, the U.S. Continued to Let Its Relationships Wither,” Defense One, March , March
10, 2021. 10, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
19

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Joel Gehrke, “US Eager to Beat China at Vaccine Diplomacy Game,” Joel Gehrke, “US Eager to Beat China at Vaccine Diplomacy Game,” Washington Examiner, ,
March 10, 2021. March 10, 2021.
Rafi Khetab, “How America Can Outcompete China in an Age of Global Pandemics, Managing Rafi Khetab, “How America Can Outcompete China in an Age of Global Pandemics, Managing
Pandemics Rightly Matters a Great Deal in This Era of Great Power Competition,” Pandemics Rightly Matters a Great Deal in This Era of Great Power Competition,” National
Interest, March 10, 2021. , March 10, 2021.
Yomiuri Shimbun, “Quad to Create Framework for Providing Vaccines to Developing Countries,” Yomiuri Shimbun, “Quad to Create Framework for Providing Vaccines to Developing Countries,”
Japan News, March 10, 2021. , March 10, 2021.
Henry Foy, “Covid Vaccine Diplomacy Is a Dilemma for Foreign Embassies in Russia, Sputnik V Henry Foy, “Covid Vaccine Diplomacy Is a Dilemma for Foreign Embassies in Russia, Sputnik V
Is One of the Most Effective Jabs but the UK And US Are Flying in Their Own Supplies,” Is One of the Most Effective Jabs but the UK And US Are Flying in Their Own Supplies,”
Financial Times, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Prabhjote Gil , “India Is Asking the QUAD for Money to Boost Vaccine Production and Counter Prabhjote Gil , “India Is Asking the QUAD for Money to Boost Vaccine Production and Counter
China’s Moves on the Global Stage,” China’s Moves on the Global Stage,” Business Insider India, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Deirdre Shesgreen, “‘Russia Is Up to Its Old Tricks’: Biden Battling COVID-19 Vaccine Deirdre Shesgreen, “‘Russia Is Up to Its Old Tricks’: Biden Battling COVID-19 Vaccine
Disinformation Campaign,” Disinformation Campaign,” USA Today, March 8, 2021. , March 8, 2021.
Congressional Research Service 24 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Ray Takeyh, “Who Came Out On Top from the 2020 Coronavirus Year? Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Ray Takeyh, “Who Came Out On Top from the 2020 Coronavirus Year?
Predictions that Russia or China Would Take the Lead in the Fight against the Pandemic Have Predictions that Russia or China Would Take the Lead in the Fight against the Pandemic Have
Not Panned Out. Instead, Countries Around the World Are Clamoring for Forging New Trade, Not Panned Out. Instead, Countries Around the World Are Clamoring for Forging New Trade,
Technological, and Health Al iances with the United States,” Technological, and Health Al iances with the United States,” National Interest, March 7, 2021. , March 7, 2021.
Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged
Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” National
Interest, March 6, 2021. , March 6, 2021.
Lil ian Posner, “The Controversy Behind Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine,” Lil ian Posner, “The Controversy Behind Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine,” National Interest, March , March
6, 2021. 6, 2021.
Josh Rogin, “How Covid Hastened the Decline and Fal of the U.S.-China Relationship,” Josh Rogin, “How Covid Hastened the Decline and Fal of the U.S.-China Relationship,”
Washington Post, March 4, 2021. , March 4, 2021.
Krishna N. Das, “Chinese Hackers Target Indian Vaccine Makers SII, Bharat Biotech, Says Krishna N. Das, “Chinese Hackers Target Indian Vaccine Makers SII, Bharat Biotech, Says
Security Firm,” Security Firm,” Reuters, March 1, 2021. , March 1, 2021.
~~Bonnie Girard, “The Politics Behind China’s COVID-19 Vaccine Choices, China Is Keeping Its~~
~~Vaccination Campaign Homegrown—Despite Some Reservations from the Public,” Diplomat,~~
~~February 26, 2021.~~
~~Ryan Dube and Luciana Magalhaes, “For Covid-19 Vaccines, Latin America Turns to China and~~
~~Russia, Western-Made Shots Are Scarce, and Beijing and Moscow Are Stepping in to Fil the~~
~~Vacuum,” Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2021.~~
~~Elizabeth Wishnick, “China and Russia: Vaccine Competitors or Partners? Despite Cooperating~~
~~on Some Aspects, China and Russia Are Also Directly Competing for the Same Vaccine~~
~~Markets—and the National Prestige that Comes with It,” Diplomat, February 23, 2021.~~
~~Josef Federman, “In Israel and Beyond, Virus Vaccines Bring Political Power,” Associated Press,~~
~~February 22, 2021.~~
~~Frida Ghitis, “The Russians and the Chinese Are Touting Their Vaccines. Should We Trust~~
~~Them?” Washington Post, February 22, 2021.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
20

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Joe Parkinson, Chao Deng, and Liza Lin, “China Deploys Covid-19 Vaccine to Build Influence,~~
~~With U.S. on Sidelines, Beijing Is Assembling a Chain of Airplanes, Warehouses and Trucks to~~
~~Deliver Refrigerated Doses to the Developing World,” Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2021.~~
~~Christopher Tan, “South Asia’s Vaccine Geopolitics, How Vaccine Access Puts Nepal in the~~
~~Crosshairs between China and India,” Nepali Times, February 21, 2021.~~
~~Helen Collis and Carlo Martuscel i, “Russia’s ‘geopolitical’ vaccine: Is Sputnik too good to be~~
~~true? The Homegrown Shot Gives Moscow the Opportunity to Inject Itself into European~~
~~Politics,” Politico, February 17, 2021.~~
~~Sam Meredith, “As Russia and China Seek to Boost Their Global Influence, Analysts Warn~~
~~Vaccine Diplomacy Is Here to Stay,” CNBC, February 17, 2021.~~
~~Aaron Feis, “Inside China’s Propaganda Efforts to Pin COVID-19 on the US,” New York Post,~~
~~February 15, 2021.~~
Bojan Pancevski, “China’s Covid-19 Vaccine Diplomacy Boosts Its Influence in Europe,” Wall
Street Journal, February 13, 2021.
~~Mujib Mashal and Vivian Yee, “The Newest Diplomatic Currency: Covid-19 Vaccines, India,~~
~~China, the U.A.E. and Others Dole out Donations in Countries Where They Seek Sway. In Some~~
~~Cases, They Are Sending Doses Despite Pressing Needs at Home,” New York Times, February 11,~~
~~2021.~~
~~Hiddai Segev and Galia Lavi, The Vaccine Race: China Expands its Global Influence, Institute~~
~~for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University, INSS Insight No. 1438, February 11,~~
~~2021, 5 pp.~~
~~David M. Herszenhorn, “Ukrainian PM: Russia Using COVID Vaccine for Influence,” Politico,~~
~~February 10, 2021.~~
~~Daniel Milo, “The Deadly Effects of Disinformation, Russian COVID Disinformation Operation~~
~~Has Been Tragical y Successful, at Both Undermining the West and in Spreading Lies That Have~~
~~Cost Lives,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), February 8, 2021.~~
~~Amitav Acharya, “Wil the Pandemic Polarize Asia? America Could Benefit from a Loss of Trust~~
~~in China, Writes Amitav Acharya,” Chatham House, February 5, 2021.~~
~~Loveday Morris, “As Europe’s Vaccination Efforts Falter, Russia and China Are Now Seen as~~
~~Options,” Washington Post, February 5, 2021.~~
~~Catherine Osborn, “Sputnik V Takes Off in Latin America, How Argentina Helped Open the~~
~~Region for the Russian Vaccine,” Foreign Policy, February 5, 2021.~~
~~Yasmeen Serhan, “Joe Biden’s ‘America First’ Vaccine Strategy, Although the New~~
~~Administration Has Reversed Many of the Isolationist Policies of Its Predecessor, the United~~
~~States’ Commitment to Its Own Vaccine Procurement Remains Unchanged,” Atlantic, February 4,~~
~~2021.~~
~~Adam Taylor, “Stuck Between the Pandemic and Politics, Some Countries Ban Rivals’ Vaccines,”~~
Washington Post, February 3, 2021.
~~Roderick Bailey, “Vaccine Nationalism: When Countries Act Selfishly, Everyone Loses, Tensions~~
~~Have Already Risen between the EU, UK and AstraZeneca over a Shortfal in Vaccine~~
~~Production. In Any Situation Where Supplies Are Scarce and Demand Rises, It Is Poorer~~
~~Countries that Wil Suffer Most,” National Interest, February 2, 2021.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
21

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, “Vaccine Nationalism Harms Everyone and Protects No One, The~~
~~World Health Organization’s Chief Argues that Hoarding Vaccines Isn’t Just Immoral—Its~~
~~Medical y Self-Defeating,” Foreign Policy, February 2, 2021.~~
~~Georgi Kantchev, “Russian Covid-19 Vaccine Was Highly Effective in Trial, Boosting Moscow’s~~
~~Rollout Ambitions, Sputnik V Shot Achieved 91.6% Efficacy in Preventing Coronavirus~~
~~Symptoms, Handing the Country a Geopolitical Coup,” Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2021.~~
~~Edoardo Campanel a, “Reopening Haves, and Have Nots, The Path to Economic Normalization~~
Wil Be Hardest for the Countries and Sectors Least Prepared for Prolonged Pain,” Foreign
Policy, February 1, 2021.
~~Derek Scissors, Dan Blumenthal, and Linda Zhang, The US-China Global Vaccine Competition,~~
~~American Enterprise Institute, February 2021, 8 pp.~~
~~Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy~~
Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Autocracy Parag Khanna, “The Pandemic Proves Only Technocrats Can Save Us, Populist Politicians Love to Belittle Experts, but When It’s a Matter of Life and Death, the Precautionary Principle and Expertise Are What Counts,” Foreign Policy, June 24, 2021. Uri Friedman, “COVID-19 Lays Bare the Price of Populism, A Raging Outbreak in Brazil Threatens Gains Against the Virus,” Atlantic, May 9, 2021. Camil e Elemia, “At Least 10 Asia Pacific Gov’ts Use COVID-19 for Censorship, Disinformation,” Rappler, April 20, 2021. R. Evan El is, Populism, China, and Covid-19, Latin America’s New Perfect Storm, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 2021, 6 pp. (Posted online April 20, 2021.) Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Governments In Europe, Central Asia Used Pandemic To Clamp Down On Human Rights, Amnesty Says,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 7, 2021. Elian Peltier, “Laws Used to Fight Pandemic Are in Some Cases Weakening Democracies, Report Elian Peltier, “Laws Used to Fight Pandemic Are in Some Cases Weakening Democracies, Report
Says,” Says,” New York Times, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged Parag Khanna, “The New ‘End of History,’ If There Is a Political System that Has Emerged
Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” National Interest, March 6, 2021. Joshua Kurlantzick, COVID-19 and Its Effect on Inequality and Democracy, A Study of Five Large Democracies, Council on Foreign Relations, March 2021, 36 pp. Economist, “Global Democracy Has a Very Bad Year, The Pandemic Caused an Unprecedented Rollback of Democratic Freedoms in 2020,” Economist, February 2, 2021. Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and Governmental Stability Paolo Gerbaudo, “Big Government Is Back, The Pandemic Has Discredited Decades of Free Market Orthodoxy—But Not Al Visions of State Interventionism Are Progressive,” Foreign Policy, February 13, 2021. Congressional Research Service 25 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Emeline Wuilbercq, “Pandemic Woes Seen Swel ing Global Ranks of Child Soldiers,” Reuters, February 12, 2021. Alexander Vil egas, Anthony Faiola, and Lesley Wroughton, “As Spending Climbs and Revenue Victorious from the Coronavirus Pandemic, It Is Asian Democratic Technocracy,” National
Interest, March 6, 2021.
~~Economist, “Global Democracy Has a Very Bad Year, The Pandemic Caused an Unprecedented~~
~~Rollback of Democratic Freedoms in 2020,” Economist, February 2, 2021.~~
~~Joshua Keating, “The Pandemic Threatened Global Democracy. Instead, It’s Strengthened It.~~
~~Many, Including Me, Predicted Widespread Democratic Collapse. But There’s Cause for Hope,”~~
Slate, October 30, 2020.
Adam Taylor, “Democracies Are Backsliding Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Washington
Post, October 2, 2020.
Sarah Repucci and Amy Slipowitz, Democracy under Lockdown, The Impact of COVID-19 on the
Global Struggle for Freedom, Freedom House, October 2020, 17 pp.
~~Travis L. Adkins and Jeffrey Smith, “Wil COVID-19 Kil Democracy? In Tanzania and~~
~~Elsewhere, the Pandemic and Creeping Authoritarianism Are Colliding, Making Both Problems~~
~~Far Worse,” Foreign Policy, September 18, 2020.~~
~~Timothy Mclaughlin, “Where the Pandemic Is Cover for Authoritarianism, In Hong Kong and~~
~~Around the World, Public-Health Concerns Are Being Used to Excuse Extraordinary Overreach,”~~
Atlantic, August 25, 2020.
~~Yasmeen Serhan, “The Pandemic Isn’t a Death Knel for Populism, Just Because Populist Leaders~~
~~Haven’t Fared Wel Against the Coronavirus Doesn’t Mean Their Opponents Should Count Them~~
~~Out,” Atlantic, August 22, 2020.~~
~~David Stasavage, “Democracy, Autocracy, and Emergency Threats: Lessons for COVID-19 From~~
~~the Last Thousand Years,” Cambridge University Press, August 19, 2020.~~
~~Anatoly Kurmanaev, “Latin America Is Facing a ‘Decline of Democracy’ Under the Pandemic,”~~
New York Times, July 29, 2020.
~~Roudabeh Kishi, “How the Coronavirus Crisis Is Silencing Dissent and Sparking Repression,”~~
Foreign Policy, July 21, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
22

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Matt Warner and Tom G. Palmer, “The Pandemic Could Be the Crisis Liberalism Needed, The~~
~~Future Has Rarely Seemed Bleaker for Free-Market Democracy—But Smal Changes Can Bring~~
~~It Roaring Back,” Foreign Policy, July 13, 2020.~~
~~Kapil Komireddi, “The Coronavirus Is Hastening Modi’s Transformation of India, New Delhi Is~~
~~Invoking the Pandemic to Accelerate Its Suppression of the Press,” Foreign Policy, July 6, 2020.~~
Jon Lee Anderson, “Populists Inflame the Coronavirus Outbreak Across Latin America,” New
Yorker, July 2, 2020.
~~James Traub, “The Pandemic Is the World’s Long Overdue Reality Check, Populists Came to~~
~~Power Peddling Political Fantasies—But the Coronavirus Has Broken the Fever,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~July 1, 2020.~~
~~Nyshka Chandran, “The Pandemic Has Given Armies in Southeast Asia a Boost, In Indonesia and~~
~~the Philippines, Military Leaders Are Managing the Coronavirus Response—with Lasting~~
~~Political Repercussions,” Foreign Policy, June 15, 2020.~~
~~Larry Diamond, “Democracy Versus the Pandemic, The Coronavirus Is Emboldening Autocrats~~
~~the World Over,” Foreign Affairs, June 13, 2020.~~
~~Robin Niblett and Leslie Vinjamuri, “Op-Ed: Why Democracies Do Better at Surviving~~
~~Pandemics,” Los Angeles Times, May 26, 2020.~~
~~Justin Sherman, “War Rhetoric Surrounds COVID Surveil ance,” C4ISRnet, May 22, 2020.~~
~~Mu Sochua, “Coronavirus ‘Fake News’ Arrests Are Quieting Critics, In Southeast Asia, the~~
~~Coronavirus Pandemic Has Provided a Handy Excuse for a Clampdown on Free Speech,”~~
Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.
~~Jacob Wal ace and Darcy Palder, “The Coronavirus Is Delaying Elections Worldwide, Moldova~~
~~and Oman Join a Growing List of Countries Postponing Their Votes for the Sake of Public~~
~~Health,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.~~
~~Holman W. Jenkins Jr., “Coronavirus and Policy Chaos, Western Rights and Freedoms Now~~
~~Prove a Strength in Adapting to the Pandemic,” Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2020.~~
~~Josh Nadeau, “Putin Is Using the Pandemic to Consolidate Power, Public Health Is a Convenient~~
~~Pretext for Extending Authoritarian Controls,” Foreign Policy, May 18, 2020.~~
~~Margaret Tucker, “Symptoms May Include Censorship,” Slate, May 15, 2020.~~
~~Joanna Kakissis, “European Parliament Lawmakers Demand Punishment For Hungary Over~~
~~Emergency Powers,” NPR, May 14, 2020.~~
~~Stuart Wil iams, Agence France-Presse, “For Europe’s Strongmen, Pandemic Is Opportunity and~~
~~Risk,” Yahoo News, May 14, 2020.~~
~~Steven Feldstein, “What Democracy Wil Fal Next? Hungary Was the First Democratic Victim of~~
~~the Coronavirus. It May Not Be the Last,” Foreign Policy, May 7, 2020.~~
Kemal Kirisci, “The Coronavirus Has Led to More Authoritarianism for Turkey,” National
Interest, May 6, 2020.
~~Febriana Firdaus. “Indonesians Fear Democracy Is the Next Pandemic Victim,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~May 4, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
23

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Margarita R. Seminario and Claudia Fernandez, “Free Press, Fake News, and Repression during~~
~~Covid-19: Venezuela, Brazil, and Nicaragua,” Center for Strategic and International Studies~~
~~(CSIS), May 4, 2020.~~
~~Jeffrey Smith and Nic Cheeseman, “Authoritarians Are Exploiting the Coronavirus. Democracies~~
~~Must Not Follow Suit,” Foreign Policy, April 28, 2020.~~
~~Alexander Cooley and Daniel Nexon, “Why Populists Want a Multipolar World, Aspiring~~
~~Authoritarians Are Sick of the Liberal Order and Eager for New Patrons in Russia and China,”~~
National Interest, April 25, 2020.
~~Anthony B. Kim, “COVID-19 Pandemic Underscores Nexus of Economic Freedom, Freedom of~~
~~Press,” Heritage Foundation, April 20, 2020.~~
Editorial Board, “How China’s Authoritarian System Made the Pandemic Worse,” Washington
Post, April 17, 2020.
~~Andrea Kendal -Taylor and Carisa Nietsche, “The Coronavirus Is Exposing Populists’ Hollow~~
~~Politics, As the Crisis Worsens, Even More Extreme Groups May Prosper,” Foreign Policy, April~~
~~16, 2020.~~
~~Societal Tension, Reform, and Transformation, and~~
~~Governmental Stability~~
~~Paolo Gerbaudo, “Big Government Is Back, The Pandemic Has Discredited Decades of Free~~
Market Orthodoxy—But Not Al Visions of State Interventionism Are Progressive,” Foreign
Policy, February 13, 2021.
~~Emeline Wuilbercq, “Pandemic Woes Seen Swel ing Global Ranks of Child Soldiers,” Reuters,~~
~~February 12, 2021.~~
~~Alexander Vil egas, Anthony Faiola, and Lesley Wroughton, “As Spending Climbs and Revenue~~
Fal s, the Coronavirus Forces a Global Reckoning, A Rising ‘Debt Tsunami’ Threatens Even Fal s, the Coronavirus Forces a Global Reckoning, A Rising ‘Debt Tsunami’ Threatens Even
Stable, Peaceful Middle-Income Countries,” Stable, Peaceful Middle-Income Countries,” Washington Post, January 10, 2021. , January 10, 2021.
Edoardo Campanel a, “The Pandemic Remade the Chinese Economy, Other Countries Should Edoardo Campanel a, “The Pandemic Remade the Chinese Economy, Other Countries Should
Prepare Now for Their Own Reformations,” Prepare Now for Their Own Reformations,” Foreign Policy, January 4, 2021. , January 4, 2021.
Jarrett Blanc, Frances Z. Brown, and Benjamin Press, “Conflict Zones in the Time of Jarrett Blanc, Frances Z. Brown, and Benjamin Press, “Conflict Zones in the Time of
Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
December 17, 2020. December 17, 2020.
Joaquín Cottani, Joaquín Cottani, The Effects of Covid-19 on Latin America’s Economy, Center for Strategic and , Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), November 2020, 9 pp. International Studies (CSIS), November 2020, 9 pp.
Tomasz Mickiewicz, Jun Du, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, “Coronavirus: Individualistic Societies Tomasz Mickiewicz, Jun Du, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, “Coronavirus: Individualistic Societies
Might Be Doing Worse, the Individualism Hypothesis Is Worth Investigating Further,” Might Be Doing Worse, the Individualism Hypothesis Is Worth Investigating Further,” National
Interest, October 14, 2020. , October 14, 2020.
Clare Duffy, “The Pandemic Could Push 150 Mil ion More People Worldwide into ‘Extreme Clare Duffy, “The Pandemic Could Push 150 Mil ion More People Worldwide into ‘Extreme
Poverty,’” Poverty,’” CNN Business, October 7, 2020. , October 7, 2020.
~~Abhishek Mishra, “Africa and COVID19: Impact, Response, and Chal enges to Recovery,”~~
~~Observer Research Foundation, September 2020 (posted September 28, 2020), 46 pp.~~
~~Peter S. Goodman, Abdi Latif Dahir and Karan Deep Singh, “The Other Way Covid Wil Kil :~~
~~Hunger Worldwide, the Population Facing Life-Threatening Levels of Food Insecurity Is~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
24

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Expected to Double, to More Than a Quarter of a Bil ion People,” New York Times, September 11~~
~~(updated September 14), 2020.~~
~~Kristalina Georgieva and Gita Gopinath, “Emerging Stronger From the Great Lockdown, The~~
~~Managing Director and the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund Lay Out a~~
~~Strategy for Sustained Recovery,” Foreign Policy, September 9, 2020.~~
~~Augusta Saraiva and Darcy Palder, “After COVID-19, Latin America Braces for ‘Lost Decade,’~~
~~Already One of the Most Unequal Regions in the World, It May Face an Unprecedented Rise in~~
~~Inequality and Poverty Due to the Economic Carnage of the Pandemic,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~September 4, 2020.~~
~~Ashfaq Zaman, “The Developing World Could Come Out of the Pandemic Ahead. Thanks to~~
~~Favorable Demographics, Digitization Efforts, and Quicker Health Responses, Many Countries of~~
~~the Global South Are Faring Better Than Their Wealthy Counterparts,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~September 2, 2020.~~
~~Linda Zhang, “COVID-19 Is a Perfect Cover for Xi Jinping’s Stealth Nationalization,” American~~
~~Enterprise Institute, August 31, 2020.~~
~~Edoardo Campanel a, “The Bubonic Plague Kil ed Feudalism. COVID-19 Wil Entrench It.~~
~~Throughout History, Pandemics Have Been a Great Equalizer. Here’s Why This Time Is~~
~~Different,” Foreign Policy, August 20, 2020.~~
~~Juan Montes and Vibhuti Agarwal, “Coronavirus’s Long, Deadly Plateau in the Developing~~
~~World,” Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2020.~~
~~Lawrence Wright, “How Pandemics Wreak Havoc—and Open Minds, The Plague Marked the~~
~~End of the Middle Ages and the Start of a Great Cultural Renewal. Could the Coronavirus, for All~~
~~Its Destruction, Offer a Similar Opportunity for Radical Change?” New Yorker, July 13, 2020.~~
~~Julie Turkewitz and Sofía Vil amil, “In Latin America, the Pandemic Threatens Equality Like~~
~~Never Before,” New York Times, July 11 (updated July 13), 2020.~~
~~Jonathan D. Moyer and Oliver Kaplan, “Wil the Coronavirus Fuel Conflict? Projections Based~~
~~on Economic and Development Data Show an Increased Risk of Internal Violence in Fragile~~
~~States Driven by Rising Prices and Fal ing Incomes,” Foreign Policy, July 6, 2020.~~
~~Sheri Berman, “Crises Only Sometimes Lead to Change. Here’s Why,” Foreign Policy, July 4,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Gerald Imray and Joseph Kauss, “Worst Virus Fears Are Realized in Poor or War-torn Countries,”~~
Associated Press, June 29, 2020.
~~Yaroslav Trofimov and Drew Hinshaw, “Europe’s Far-Right Fails to Capitalize on Coronavirus~~
~~Crisis,” Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2020.~~
~~Joe Parkin Daniels, “Latin America’s Wave of Protests Was Historic—Then the Pandemic~~
~~Arrived, The Coronavirus and Lockdowns Have Worsened the Region’s Economic Divides—and~~
~~Set the Stage for More Political Upheaval,” Foreign Policy, June 25, 2020.~~
~~Emil Avdaliani, “Eurasia Disunion, The Pandemic Exacerbates the Divisions in the Kremlin-Led~~
~~Body,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 18, 2020.~~
~~Maria Snegovaya, Denis Volkov, and Stepan Goncharov, “The Coronavirus Could Hit Putin Most~~
~~of Al ,” Foreign Policy, June 5, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
25

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Frances Z. Brown and Megan Doherty, “How the United States Can Address Global Fragility in a~~
~~Pandemic,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 4, 2020.~~
Fareed Zakaria, “The Pandemic’s Second Stage Is Here—And It’s Getting Ugly,” Washington
Post, May 28, 2020.
~~Robyn Dixon, “In Russia’s Pandemic Struggles, Even Putin Couldn’t Speed Bonuses to Health~~
~~Workers,” Washington Post, May 27, 2020.~~
~~Cyrus Newlin and Heather A. Conley, “Responding to a Pandemic, Putin Trades Russia’s Future~~
~~for His Own,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 27, 2020.~~
~~Wil Todman, “Assad Attempts to Weaponize COVID-19 in Syria,” The Hill, May 27, 2020.~~
~~Nisha Bel inger and Kyle Kattelman, “The Coronavirus Is Boosting Terror Threats in the~~
~~Developing World, The Pandemic Exacerbates Worsen Existing Food Crises, Undermining~~
~~Stability,” Defense One, May 26, 2020.~~
~~Husain Haqqani and Aparna Pande, “Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South~~
~~Asia,” Hudson Institute, May 26, 2020.~~
~~Herman Pirchner Jr., “Vladimir Putin’s Increasingly Precarious Future,” National Interest, May~~
~~26, 2020.~~
~~Colm Quinn, “Do Poor Countries Face a Greater Risk From Coronavirus? The WHO Chief Is~~
~~‘Very Concerned’ About Rising Cases in Poorer Countries, as Worldwide Cases Pass Five~~
~~Mil ion,” Foreign Policy, May 21, 2020.~~
~~Brian Whitmore, “The Kremlin’s Numbers Rracket, A Persistent and Prolific Propaganda~~
~~Machine Meets a Deadly Global Pandemic. Now What Happens?” Center for European Policy~~
~~Analysis (CEPA), May 19, 2020.~~
~~Janusz Bugajski, “Ethnic Echoes, The Pandemic is Animating Europe’s Ethnic and Regional~~
~~Disputes,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), May 18, 2020.~~
~~James Crabtree et al., “How the Coronavirus Pandemic Wil Permanently Expand Government~~
~~Powers, Ten Leading Global Thinkers on an Expansion of Government Powers,” Foreign Policy,~~
~~May 16, 2020. (Includes short contributions from 10 observers.)~~
~~Polina Beliakova, “COVID-19 and the Limits of Putin’s Power,” War on the Rocks, May 13,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Sidney Lang, “Coronavirus: China Faces Historic Test as Pandemic Stokes Fears of Looming~~
~~Unemployment Crisis,” South China Morning Post, May 11, 2020.~~
~~Robyn Dixon, “Putin Knows How to Rule Russia as An Autocrat. But He Seems on the Sidelines~~
~~Amid Coronavirus Crisis,” Washington Post, May 7, 2020.~~
Ann M. Simmons, “In Russia, Putin Wrestles With Economic Impact of Coronavirus,” Wall Street
Journal, May 6, 2020.
~~Judd Devermont and Simon Al ison, “Covid-19 in Africa: The Good News and the Bad,” Center~~
~~for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 4, 2020.~~
~~Nathan Hodge, “As Coronavirus Hits Record Numbers in Russia, This Is a Dangerous Moment~~
~~for Putin,” CNN, May 4, 2020.~~
~~Clara Ferreira Marques, “Coronavirus Has Exposed Putin’s Brittle Regime,” Bloomberg, May 4,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
26

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Henry Foy, “Russia: Pandemic Tests Putin’s Grip on Power,” Financial Times, May 4, 2020.~~
~~Cary Huang, “Coronavirus: China Faces an Economic Reckoning as Covid-19 Turns World~~
~~Against Globalisation,” South China Morning Post, May 3, 2020.~~
~~Minxin Pei, “China’s Coming Upheaval, Competition, the Coronavirus, and the Weakness of Xi~~
~~Jinping,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2020.~~
~~World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy~~
World Economy, Globalization, and U.S. Trade Policy Gabriele Steinhauser and Drew Hinshaw, “India’s Covid-19 Agonies Highlight Growing Rich- Poor Gap in Vaccinations,” Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2021. James K. Galbraith, “The Death of Neoliberalism Is Greatly Exaggerated, The West’s Economic Orthodoxy of the Past 40 Years Has Been Shaken by the Pandemic—But the Fight Isn’t Nearly Over Yet,” Foreign Policy, April 6, 2021. Nita Bhal a, “Africans Slam Rich Nations For Blocking Access To Generic COVID Vaccines,” Nita Bhal a, “Africans Slam Rich Nations For Blocking Access To Generic COVID Vaccines,”
Reuters, March 11, 2021. , March 11, 2021.
Colm Quinn, “Rich vs. Poor (Again) at WTO, Months after India and South Africa Made Their Colm Quinn, “Rich vs. Poor (Again) at WTO, Months after India and South Africa Made Their
Initial Proposal, the World Trade Organization Has Another Chance to Waive Intel ectual Initial Proposal, the World Trade Organization Has Another Chance to Waive Intel ectual
Property Rights for Covid-19 Vaccines and Treatments,” Property Rights for Covid-19 Vaccines and Treatments,” Foreign Policy, March 10, 2021. , March 10, 2021.
Scott Lincicome, “The Pandemic Does Not Demand Government Micromanagement of Global Scott Lincicome, “The Pandemic Does Not Demand Government Micromanagement of Global
Supply Chains,” Cato Institute, February 24, 2021. Supply Chains,” Cato Institute, February 24, 2021.
Fatima Hassan, “Don’t Let Drug Companies Create a System of Vaccine Apartheid, To Avoid Fatima Hassan, “Don’t Let Drug Companies Create a System of Vaccine Apartheid, To Avoid
Repeating the Pitfal s of the HIV/AIDS Crisis, Governments and the WTO Must Make COVID-Repeating the Pitfal s of the HIV/AIDS Crisis, Governments and the WTO Must Make COVID-
19 Vaccination a Public Good by Temporarily Waiving Intel ectual Property Rights and 19 Vaccination a Public Good by Temporarily Waiving Intel ectual Property Rights and
Compel ing Emergency Production,” Compel ing Emergency Production,” Foreign Policy, February 23, 2021. , February 23, 2021.
Peter S. Goodman, “One Vaccine Side Effect: Global Economic Inequality, As Covid Inoculations Peter S. Goodman, “One Vaccine Side Effect: Global Economic Inequality, As Covid Inoculations
Begin, the Economic Downturn Stands to be Reversed, but Developing Countries Are at Risk of Begin, the Economic Downturn Stands to be Reversed, but Developing Countries Are at Risk of
Being Left Behind,” Being Left Behind,” New York Times, December 25, 2020. , December 25, 2020.
Michael Shields, “Pandemic Speeds Labour Shift from Humans to Robots, WEF Survey Finds,” Michael Shields, “Pandemic Speeds Labour Shift from Humans to Robots, WEF Survey Finds,”
Reuters, October 20, 2020. , October 20, 2020.
Scott Lincicome, “Why a Successful COVID-19 Vaccine Depends on Globalization, Each of the Scott Lincicome, “Why a Successful COVID-19 Vaccine Depends on Globalization, Each of the
Vaccines that the United States Has Secured Appears to be Heavily Reliant on Globalization to Vaccines that the United States Has Secured Appears to be Heavily Reliant on Globalization to
Congressional Research Service 26 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Produce the Final Doses at the Absolute Maximum Speed and Scale,” Produce the Final Doses at the Absolute Maximum Speed and Scale,” National Interest, October , October
16, 2020. 16, 2020.
Josh Zumbrun and Yuka Hayashi, “China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From Josh Zumbrun and Yuka Hayashi, “China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From
Pandemic, IMF Says,” Pandemic, IMF Says,” Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2020. , October 13, 2020.
Eric K. Hontz, “The Fate of Globalization in the Post-Coronavirus Era,” Eric K. Hontz, “The Fate of Globalization in the Post-Coronavirus Era,” National Interest, ,
September 12, 2020. September 12, 2020.
Niccolò Pisani, “Trump’s China ‘Decoupling’ and Coronavirus: Why 2020 Upheaval Won’t Kill Niccolò Pisani, “Trump’s China ‘Decoupling’ and Coronavirus: Why 2020 Upheaval Won’t Kill
Globalisation,” Globalisation,” The Conversation, September 9, 2020. , September 9, 2020.
Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart, “The Pandemic Depression, The Global Economy Wil Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart, “The Pandemic Depression, The Global Economy Wil
Never Be the Same,” Never Be the Same,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2020. , September/October 2020.
Anthony B. Kim, “Protectionism and the Pandemic Are Curtailing Global Trade. Policymakers Anthony B. Kim, “Protectionism and the Pandemic Are Curtailing Global Trade. Policymakers
Must Act Accordingly,” Heritage Foundation, August 5, 2020. Must Act Accordingly,” Heritage Foundation, August 5, 2020.
Hoe Ee Khor and Suan Yong Foo, “What Lies Ahead for Global Value Chains in Asia?” East Asia
Forum, July 28, 2020.
~~Henry Farrel and Abraham Newman, “This Is What the Future of Globalization Wil Look Like,”~~
Foreign Policy, July 4, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
27

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Anthony Faiola, “The Virus That Shut Down the World,” Washington Post, June 26, 2020.~~
~~Ravi Agrawal, “The Pandemic Is Reversing Decades of Progress, A New Report Warns that 120~~
~~Mil ion Children in South Asia Could Fal into Poverty This Year Because of Lockdowns—and~~
~~Tens of Thousands Could Die from Disease,” Foreign Policy, June 25, 2020.~~
~~Stephanie Segal and Dylan Gerstel, “Covid-19 and the Global Financial Safety Net,” Center for~~
~~Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), June 25, 2020.~~
Martin Crutsinger, “IMF Downgrades Outlook for Global Economy in Face of Virus,” Associated
Press, June 24, 2020.
~~Bruno Maçães, “The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution, Governments Stopped the World~~
~~in Its Tracks During the Pandemic—and Our Relationship to the Economy Wil Never Be the~~
~~Same Again,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2020.~~
~~Andy Sumner, Christopher Hoy, and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, “Global Poverty: Coronavirus Could~~
~~Drive It Up for the First Time Since the 1990s,” The Conversation, June 16, 2020.~~
Peter Gourevitch and Deborah Seligsohn, “Remaking the Global System After COVID-19,” East
Asia Forum, June 7, 2020.
~~Evelyn Cheng, “China May Become One of Many Hubs as Companies Diversify Manufacturing~~
~~After Coronavirus Shock,” CNBC, May 25, 2020.~~
~~Joshua Posaner, “Merkel Warns Against Trade Barriers in Face of Coronavirus Recession,”~~
Politico, May 20, 2020.
~~Frank G. Wisner Matthew Kirk, “Here’s What the Coronavirus Means for the Future of~~
~~Geopolitics and Trade,” National Interest, May 18, 2020.~~
~~Barak M. Seener, “The World is Round: Shifting Supply Chains and a Fragmented World Order,”~~
National Interest, May 16, 2020.
~~Rhonda Ferguson, “Why Coronavirus Is an Opportunity to Transform the Global Food Trade,”~~
National Interest, May 11, 2020.
~~Asa Fitch, Kate O’Keeffe, and Bob Davis, “Trump and Chip Makers Including Intel Seek~~
~~Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency, Pentagon Says Coronavirus Pandemic Underscores~~
~~Vulnerability from Reliance on Asian Factories,” Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2020.~~
~~Robert E. Lighthizer, “The Era of Offshoring U.S. Jobs Is Over, The Pandemic, and Trump’s~~
Trade Policy, Are Accelerating a Trend to Bring Manufacturing Back to America,” New York
Times, May 11, 2020.
~~Michael Nienaber, “Germany’s Altmaier Wants Europe to Be Less Dependent on Other~~
~~Countries,” Reuters, May 9, 2020.~~
~~Aaron Friedberg, “The United States Needs to Reshape Global Supply Chains, U.S. Strategy~~
~~Needs Reglobalization to Snatch Critical Power Away from China,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2020.~~
~~Ana Quintana, James Roberts, and Anthony Kim, “A U.S.–Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Economic~~
~~Partnership Recovery Plan,” Heritage Foundation, May 7, 2020.~~
~~Desmond Lachman, “Could Italy Default on Its Debt Due to the Coronavirus?” National Interest,~~
~~May 7, 2020.~~
~~Ruchir Sharma, “The Pandemic Isn’t Changing Everything, It Is Just Speeding Up Trends That~~
~~Were Already Underway,” New York Times, May 3, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
28

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~James Crabtree, “The End of Emerging Markets? Economies such as Brazil, Indonesia, India,~~
~~Russia, and Turkey face a daunting new reality,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2020.~~
~~Kevin Sieff, “The U.S. Wants Mexico to Keep Its Defense and Health-Care Factories Open.~~
~~Mexican Workers Are Getting Sick and Dying,” Washington Post, May 1, 2020.~~
~~Ariel E. Levite and Lyu Jinghua, “Travails of an Interconnected World: From Pandemics to the~~
~~Digital Economy,” Lawfare, April 30, 2020.~~
~~Nathaniel Taplin, “Trump’s Trade Deal With China Is Another Coronavirus Victim, The~~
~~Pandemic Is Exposing the Perils of Agreements Based on Numerical Targets Rather Than Tariff~~
~~Reductions or Policy Concessions,” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2020.~~
~~Trevor Jackson, “Terminal Deflation Is Coming, Central Banks’ Interventions in the Pandemic~~
~~Economy Are Unprecedentedly Vast—and Not Nearly Enough,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2020.~~
~~Greg Ip, “Globalization Is Down but Not Out Yet,” Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2020.~~
~~Zhou Xin, “Coronavirus: How Wil China’s Role in the Global Economy Change When Faced~~
~~with Pandemic Backlash?” South China Morning Post, April 28, 2020.~~
~~Nicholas Mulder and Adam Tooze, “The Coronavirus Oil Shock Is Just Getting Started~~Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances Amy Kazmin and Demetri Sevastopulo, “India’s Covid Calamity Exposes Weakest Link in US-Led ‘Quad’ Al iance, New Delhi Virus Response Undermines Its Coalition with America, Japan and Australia to Resist China,” Financial Times, June 14, 2021. Michael Kugelman, “The U.S.-India Relationship Has a New Top Priority, The Indian Foreign Minister’s U.S. Visit Shows the Partners Are Primarily Focused on Tackling the Coronavirus— for Now,” Foreign Policy, May 27, 2021. Tom Waldwyn and Fenel a McGerty, “How COVID-19 Has Impacted South China Sea Defense Spending and Procurement,” Defense News, May 10, 2021. Mike Glenn, “COVID-19 Contributes to Jump in World’s Military Budgets: Report,” Washington Times, April 26, 2021. ,” Foreign
Policy, April 23, 2020.
~~Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, “The Coronavirus Could Upend Trump’s China Trade Deal,”~~
Foreign Policy, April 21, 2020.
~~Richard Fontaine, “Globalization Wil Look Very Different After the Coronavirus Pandemic ,”~~
Foreign Policy, April 17, 2020.
~~Neil Irwin, “It’s the End of the World Economy as We Know It, Experts Suggest There Will Be~~
‘A Rethink of How Much Any Country Wants to Be Reliant on Any Other Country,’” New York
Times, April 16, 2020.
~~Robert Delaney, “Economic Havoc Wreaked by Coronavirus Has Likely Throttled US-China~~
~~Trade Deal, Experts Say,” South China Morning Post, April 15, 2020.~~
~~Joseph E. Stiglitz et al., “How the Economy Wil Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic, The~~
~~Pandemic Will Change the Economic and Financial Order Forever. We Asked Nine Leading~~
~~Global Thinkers for Their Predictions,” Foreign Policy, April 15, 2020.~~
~~Martin Wolf, “The World Economy Is Now Collapsing, A Microbe Has Overthrown Our~~
~~Arrogance and Sent Global Output into a Tailspin,” Financial Times, April 14, 2020.~~
Josh Zumbrun, “Coronavirus-Afflicted Global Economy Is Almost Certainly in Recession,” Wall
Street Journal, April 14, 2020.
~~By Raphael S. Cohen Sunday, “The Coronavirus Wil Not Stop Globalization,” Lawfare, April~~
~~12, 2020.~~
~~Dalia Marin, “How COVID-19 Is Transforming Manufacturing,” Project Syndicate, April 3,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Allied Defense Spending and U.S. Alliances~~
Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, Sovereign Solidarity, France, the US, and Alliances in a
Post-Covid World, Atlantic Council, 2020 (released November 11, 2020), 28 pp. , Atlantic Council, 2020 (released November 11, 2020), 28 pp.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
29

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Pierre Morcos, Pierre Morcos, Toward a New “Lost Decade”? Covid-19 and Defense Spending in Europe, ,
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), October 2020Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), October 2020 ~~(posted~~, 7 pp. (Posted online October ~~October 15, 2020), 7~~
~~pp.~~
~~Alice Billon~~15, 2020.) Alice Bil on-Gal and, -Gal and, COVID-19 and the Defence Policies of European States, NATO Defense , NATO Defense
College, October 2020, 4 pp. College, October 2020, 4 pp.
Claudia Major, Claudia Major, Catalyst or Crisis? COVID-19 and European Security, NATO Defense College, , NATO Defense College,
October 2020, 4 pp. October 2020, 4 pp.
Olivier Rittimann, Olivier Rittimann, NATO and the COVID-19 Emergency: Actions and Lessons, NATO Defense
College, September 2020, 4 pp. , September 2020, 4 pp.
~~Sten Rynning, A Renewed Collective Defense Bargain? NATO in COVID’s Shadow, NATO~~
~~Defense College, September 2020, 4 pp.~~
~~Charles V. Peña, “Money and Missions: NATO Should Learn from Europe’s Pandemic~~
~~Response,” Defense News, August 20, 2020.~~
Yukio Tajima, “Japan Must Rethink Excessive Reliance on US Security, Says Expert,” Nikkei
Asian Review, July 7, 2020.
~~Daniel Hurst, “Australia to Acquire Long-Range Missiles as PM Warns of Dangerous Post-~~
~~Covid-19 World,” Guardian, June 30, 2020.~~
~~Kurt Volker, “Think Big, To Build a Post-pandemic World Order We Must Wake a Sleeping~~
~~Giant: NATO,” Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), June 12, 2020.~~
John Grady, “COVID-19 Pandemic Changing How NATO Thinks of Global Security,” USNI
News, June 9, 2020.
~~Steven Erlanger, “European Defense and ‘Strategic Autonomy’ Are Also Coronavirus Victims,”~~
New York Times, May 23, 2020.
~~Mihail Naydenov, “NATO and its Eastern Flank: Chal enges of a Post-COVID Environment,”~~
~~Middle East Institute, May 21, 2020.~~
~~Silvia Amaro, “Coronavirus Could Hit Defense Spending and Spark NATO Tensions Once~~
~~Again,” CNBC, May 13, 2020.~~
~~Ben Doherty, “The Indispensable Nation? Covid-19 Tests the US-Australian Al iance,” Guardian,~~
~~May 5, 2020.~~
~~Wal ace C. Gregson, “The Coronavirus Creates New National Security Problems for America,”~~
National Defense, May 3, 2020.
~~Thierry Tardy, editor, COVID-19: NATO in the Age of Pandemics, NATO Defense College, May~~
~~2020, 69 pp.~~
~~European Union~~
~~Caroline~~ European Union Isaac Chotiner, “How the Pandemic Changed Europe, The historian Adam Tooze Discusses the Vaccine Rollout and Shifting Politics in the E.U.,” New Yorker, April 15, 2021. Steven Erlanger, “Vaccine ‘Fiasco’ Damages Europe’s Credibility, The European Union’s Failure to Secure Adequate Vaccine Supplies, Followed by an Export Ban, Has Dented the Reputation of Congressional Research Service 27 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment the Bloc’s Leaders. It May Also hurt their Ability to Act in Other Areas,” New York Times, April 2, 2021. Tim Gosling, “Russia and China Are Exploiting Europe’s Vaccine Shortfal s, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Has Resigned Over a Secret Delivery of Moscow’s Sputnik V as Brussels Struggles to Keep the EU United,” Foreign Policy, March 31, 2021. Laurence Norman and Jenny Strasburg, “Vaccine Fight Between EU and U.K. Threatens to Escalate, Officials on Both Sides Are in Talks to Prevent Bans of Exports of Covid-19 Shots and Vaccination Supplies,” Wall Street Journal, Updated March 22, 2021. Caroline de Gruyter, “Europe Needed Borders. Coronavirus Built Them. The Pandemic Has the de Gruyter, “Europe Needed Borders. Coronavirus Built Them. The Pandemic Has the
Continent Increasingly Discussing Its Common Boundaries—and Common Identity,” Continent Increasingly Discussing Its Common Boundaries—and Common Identity,” Foreign
Policy, December 4, 2020. , December 4, 2020.
Colm Quinn, “Can Europe Come Together to Save Itself? A Quarrel over the EU Coronavirus Colm Quinn, “Can Europe Come Together to Save Itself? A Quarrel over the EU Coronavirus
Fund Threatens to Stal Economic Recovery Efforts,” Fund Threatens to Stal Economic Recovery Efforts,” Foreign Policy, November 19, 2020. cy, November 19, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
30

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Joseph de Weck and Elettra Ardissino, “The Pandemic Is Showing What the EU Is Good For,” Joseph de Weck and Elettra Ardissino, “The Pandemic Is Showing What the EU Is Good For,”
Foreign Policy, September 8, 2020. , September 8, 2020.
Adam Tooze, “It’s a New Europe—if You Can Keep It, The Continent Has Managed to Take a Adam Tooze, “It’s a New Europe—if You Can Keep It, The Continent Has Managed to Take a
Great Leap Forward—But There Stil Might Be a Crash Landing,” Great Leap Forward—But There Stil Might Be a Crash Landing,” Foreign Policy, August 7, , August 7,
2020. 2020.
Editorial Board, “The Pandemic Has Made Europe Stronger,” Editorial Board, “The Pandemic Has Made Europe Stronger,” Washington Post, July 28, 2020. , July 28, 2020.
Joseph de Weck, “Germany Is Final y Ready to Spend, In the Long Run, the COVID-19 Joseph de Weck, “Germany Is Final y Ready to Spend, In the Long Run, the COVID-19
Pandemic May Change Europe’s Economy for the Better,” Pandemic May Change Europe’s Economy for the Better,” Foreign Policy, June 22, 2020. icy, June 22, 2020.
Patrick Donahue and Arne Delfs, “Merkel Cal s for Agreement on EU Fund Before Summer Patrick Donahue and Arne Delfs, “Merkel Cal s for Agreement on EU Fund Before Summer
Break,” Break,” Bloomberg, June 18, 2020. , June 18, 2020.
Desmond Lachman, “A Eurozone Economic Crisis Thanks to Coronavirus?” Desmond Lachman, “A Eurozone Economic Crisis Thanks to Coronavirus?” National Interest, ,
June 2, 2020. June 2, 2020.
~~Michael Birnbaum, “Germany, borrowing from Trump, says it wants to make Europe ‘strong~~
~~again,’” Washington Post, May 29, 2020.~~
~~Trevor Jackson, “Forget Hamilton. This Is Europe’s Calonne Moment,” Foreign Policy, May 29,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Adriano Bosoni, “Wil COVID-19 Be the Eurozone’s Undoing?” Stratfor, May 27, 2020.~~
~~Michael Birnbaum and Loveday Morris, “E.U. Proposes $825 Bil ion Coronavirus Rescue Plan~~
~~Giving Brussels Power to Raise Money for First Time,” Washington Post, May 27, 2020.~~
~~Editorial Board, “Europe Seeks Its ‘Hamilton Moment,’ Too Bad the EU Skips Over the Part~~
~~About Democratic Legitimacy,” Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2020.~~
~~Robin Emmott, “EU Keeps Defence Fund Alive with 8 Bil ion Euro Proposal,” Reuters, May 27,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Matina Stevis-Gridneff, “A €750 Bil ion Virus Recovery Plan Thrusts Europe Into a New~~
~~Frontier,” New York Times, May 27 (updated May 28), 2020.~~
~~Associated Press, “EU’s Top Diplomat Urges ‘More Robust Strategy’ Toward China,”~~
Washington Post, May 25, 2020.
~~Sylvie Kauffmann, “Can Europe Stay Back From the Brink? After Three Months of Chaos and~~
~~Deaths Caused by the Pandemic, the Continent, Led by Germany and France, Is Giving~~
~~Convergence Another Try,” New York Times, May 22, 2020.~~
~~Paul Hockenos, “Has the Coronavirus Disappeared Climate Politics? Europe’s Pandemic Bailouts~~
~~Are Trying to Save the Continent’s Economy. Less Clear Is If They Can Save the Planet,”~~
Foreign Policy, May 21, 2020.
~~John Chalmers, Gabriela Baczynska, “‘It’s Up to Us’: How Merkel and Macron Revived EU~~
~~Solidarity,” Reuters, May 20, 2020.~~
~~Angela Charlton, Lorne Cook, and Jari Tanner (Associated Press), “Germany Breaks Taboo in~~
~~Effort to Get EU Through Pandemic,” New York Times, May 19, 2020.~~
~~Andreas Rinke and John Revil , “Europe Risks Being Left Behind China, U.S. by Coronavirus:~~
~~Siemens CEO,” Reuters, May 19, 2020.~~
~~Denise Roland, Noemie Bisserbe, and Nick Kostov, “Europe Fal s Behind U.S. in Funding~~
~~Coronavirus Vaccine—and Securing Access,” Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
31

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Steven Erlanger, “Merkel, Breaking German ‘Taboo,’ Backs Shared E.U. Debt to Tackle Virus,”~~
New York Times, May 18, 2020.
~~Liam Kennedy, “How Coronavirus Revealed the Weakness of Europe, Coronavirus Has~~
~~Underlined the Frailty of the ‘European Project’ and Deepened Anxiety About Its Future,”~~
National Interest, May 14, 2020.
~~Nikos Chrysoloras, “Debt Crisis, Brexit, Now Virus. Can the EU Survive?” Bloomberg, May 13,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Jennifer Rankin, “EU Faces ‘Existential Threat’ If Coronavirus Recovery Is Uneven,” Guardian,~~
~~May 13, 2020.~~
~~Andrew Smal , “The Meaning of Systemic Rivalry: Europe and China Beyond the Pandemic,”~~
~~European Council on Foreign Relations, May 13, 2020.~~
Lorne Cook, “Concern Mounts That Border Measures Threaten EU Free Travel,” Associated
Press, May 12, 2020.
~~“EU’s Top Diplomat Warns Against Defense Cuts,” Defense News, May 12, 2020. (This article~~
~~does not list an author.)~~
~~Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, “Israel and the European Union in times of coronavirus pandemic,”~~
Jerusalem Post, May 10, 2020.
~~Bjarke Smith-Meyer and Paola Tamma, “Brussels Eyes a Bigger EU Shareholder Role in the~~
~~Coronavirus Recovery,” Politico, May 10 (updated May 11), 2020.~~
~~Michael Birnbaum, “E.U. Defends Handling of China Relations After Beijing Censors Op-ed~~
~~Written by Bloc’s Ambassadors,” Washington Post, May 7, 2020.~~
~~Heather A. Conley, “Covid-19 May Encourage a No-Deal Brexit,” Center for Strategic and~~
~~International Studies (CSIS), May 7, 2020.~~
~~Lorne Cook and Llazar Semini, “EU Aims to Reassure Balkans with Virus Aid, Economic~~
~~Support,” Associated Press, May 6, 2020.~~
~~Christopher Caldwel , “Can the European Union Survive a Pandemic? The Coronavirus Crisis~~
~~Has Turned Its Member Nations Against Each Other,” New Republic, May 5, 2020.~~
~~Rick Noack, “The Coronavirus Has Brought Back Border Barriers in Europe, Dividing Couples,~~
~~Families and Communities,” Washington Post, May 1, 2020.~~
~~Donatienne Ruy and Heather A. Conley, “Covid-19 and the Search for an Ambitious EU~~
~~Recovery Fund,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 1, 2020.~~
Definition of, and Budgeting for, U.S. National Security
Josh Kerbel, “The US Talks A Lot About Strategic Complexity. Too Bad It’s Mostly Just Talk, Josh Kerbel, “The US Talks A Lot About Strategic Complexity. Too Bad It’s Mostly Just Talk,
The Pandemic Sidelined a National Security Community that Gives Only Lip Service to a Vital The Pandemic Sidelined a National Security Community that Gives Only Lip Service to a Vital
Concept,” Concept,” Defense One, March 9, 2021. , March 9, 2021.
Susan B. Glasser, “What Does National Security Even Mean Anymore, After January 6th and the Susan B. Glasser, “What Does National Security Even Mean Anymore, After January 6th and the
Pandemic? Talking Threats, Foreign and Domestic, with Mark Mil ey, the Chairman of the Joint Pandemic? Talking Threats, Foreign and Domestic, with Mark Mil ey, the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff,” Chiefs of Staff,” New Yorker, March 4, 2021. , March 4, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
32

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Jacob Parakilas, “The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does, And Jacob Parakilas, “The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does, And
Science and Technology Wil Only Take Us So Far When It Comes to Future Threats, Science and Technology Wil Only Take Us So Far When It Comes to Future Threats,
Conventional or Otherwise,” Conventional or Otherwise,” Diplomat, December 23, 2020. , December 23, 2020.
Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Rebuilding America in the Post Trump Era, The Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Rebuilding America in the Post Trump Era, The
Trump Administration’s Woeful Response to Many Threats, but Especial y the Coronavirus Trump Administration’s Woeful Response to Many Threats, but Especial y the Coronavirus
Pandemic, Demonstrates that Dealing with Tomorrow’s Bioterror Threat Must be a National Pandemic, Demonstrates that Dealing with Tomorrow’s Bioterror Threat Must be a National
Security Priority,” Security Priority,” National Interest, December 18, 2020. , December 18, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 28 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Kevin Bilms, “Wil COVID Final y Force Us to Think Differently About National Security? The Kevin Bilms, “Wil COVID Final y Force Us to Think Differently About National Security? The
‘Softer’ Approaches of Irregular War Offer Outsized Benefits During Competition and Armed ‘Softer’ Approaches of Irregular War Offer Outsized Benefits During Competition and Armed
Conflict Alike,” Conflict Alike,” Defense One, December 15, 2020. , December 15, 2020.
Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel, “Coronavirus Pandemic Stands to Force Changes in Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel, “Coronavirus Pandemic Stands to Force Changes in
U.S. Spy Services, After Years of Underplaying Soft Threats Like Disease and Climate Change, U.S. Spy Services, After Years of Underplaying Soft Threats Like Disease and Climate Change,
National-Security Establishment Faces Cal s for a New Approach,” National-Security Establishment Faces Cal s for a New Approach,” Wall Street Journal, ,
November 22, 2020. November 22, 2020.
Uri Firedman, “The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power, In the COVID-19 Uri Firedman, “The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power, In the COVID-19
Era, a Country’s Strength Is Determined Not Only by Its Military and Economy, but Also by Its Era, a Country’s Strength Is Determined Not Only by Its Military and Economy, but Also by Its
Resilience,” Resilience,” Atlantic, November 15, 2020. , November 15, 2020.
Frank Hoffman, “National Security in the Post-Pandemic Era,” Frank Hoffman, “National Security in the Post-Pandemic Era,” Orbis, Winter 2021: 17-45. (The , Winter 2021: 17-45. (The
first page of the article carries an additional date of November 2020.) first page of the article carries an additional date of November 2020.)
Marigny Kirschke-Schwartz, “America Must Act To Avoid A Biotechnology Arms Race, the Marigny Kirschke-Schwartz, “America Must Act To Avoid A Biotechnology Arms Race, the
Covid-19 Pandemic Has Shown Us the Potential for a Biological Incident to Upend Global Covid-19 Pandemic Has Shown Us the Potential for a Biological Incident to Upend Global
Stability, and the Implications Are Sobering,” Stability, and the Implications Are Sobering,” National Interest, September 22, 2020. , September 22, 2020.
Calder Walton, “US Intel igence, the Coronavirus and the Age of Globalized Chal enges,” Belfer Calder Walton, “US Intel igence, the Coronavirus and the Age of Globalized Chal enges,” Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs, August 24, 2020. Center for Science and International Affairs, August 24, 2020.
~~Brad Bannon, “Military Madness in the Age of COVID-19,” The Hill, July 6, 2020.~~
Savannah Wooten, “Rethinking the Military Budget Amid the Coronavirus Crisis,” National
Interest, June 30, 2020.
~~Brandon Valeriano, Lauren Sander, and Eric Gomez, “The Senate’s Defense Authorization Bil~~
~~Ignores Our New Reality,” Defense One, June 17, 2020.~~
~~Shane Harris and Missy Ryan, “To Prepare for the Next Pandemic, the U.S. Needs to Change Its~~
~~National Security Priorities, Experts Say,” Washington Post, June 16, 2020.~~
~~John Grady, “Panel: COVID-19 Pandemic Could Prompt Changes to National Security~~
~~Spending,” USNI News, June 15 (updated June 16), 2020.~~
Laicie Heeley, “We Prepared for War, But Should Have Spent Our Money Elsewhere,” Defense
News, June 10, 2020.
~~Sue Gordon, “Op-ed: The Coronavirus Pandemic Should Change the Way We Look at National~~
~~Security,” CNBC, May 28, 2020.~~
~~Anca Agachi, “The Miner’s Canary: COVID-19 and the Rise of Non-Traditional Security~~
~~Threats,” Defense One, May 16, 2020.~~
~~Joseph Marks, “The Cybersecurity 202: Security Pros Form Al iance to Help Hospitals Facing~~
~~Hacking Threats During Pandemic,” Washington Post, May 4, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
33

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Bejamin H. Friedman, Restraint: A Post-COVID-19 U.S. National Security Strategy, Defense~~
~~Priorities, May 2020, 4 pp.~~
~~Greg Barbaccia, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Wil Force a Paradigm Shift in the U.S. Intel igence~~
~~Community,” National Interest, April 23, 2020.~~
~~Kori Schake, “A New Org Chart Won’t Stop the Next Pandemic,” Bloomberg, April 22, 2020.~~
~~Rachel Olney, “How Wil the Pandemic Affect National Security Innovation?~~ U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations Frank Hoffman, “U.S. Defense Strategy After The Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, April 20, 2021. Aaron Mehta, “After COVID, Are Bil ions in Biodefense Funds Needed to Deter US Adversaries?” Defense News, April 9, 2021. ~~” War on the Rocks,~~
~~April 21, 2020.~~
~~Christopher Woody, “After Coronavirus, the US Needs to Worry about a ‘7th domain’ of Warfare,~~
~~Top Navy Commander in Europe Says,” Business Insider, April 17, 2020.~~
David E. Sanger, “Analysis: Wil Pandemic Make Trump Rethink National Security?” New York
Times, April 15, 2020.
~~Benjamin Jensen, “When Systems Fail: What Pandemics and Cyberspace Tel Us About the~~
~~Future of National Security,” War on the Rocks, April 9, 2020.~~
Christopher Preble, “How wil COVID-19 Change US National Security Strategy?” Responsible
Statecraft, April 8, 2020.
~~Glenn S. Gerstel and Michael Morel , “Four Ways U.S. Intel igence Efforts Should Change in the~~
~~Wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Washington Post, April 7, 2020.~~
~~Oona A. Hathaway, “After COVID-19, We Need to Redefine ‘National Security,’ The Post-9/11~~
~~Era Is Over,” Slate, April 7, 2020.~~
~~Zachery Tyson Brown, “America’s National Security Software Needs an Upgrade, The Outdated~~
U.S. Security Apparatus Was Completely Unprepared for the Coronavirus Pandemic ,” Foreign
Policy, April 6, 2020.
~~Ben Rhodes, “The 9/11 Era Is Over, The Coronavirus Pandemic and a Chapter of History That~~
~~Should Have Expired Long Ago,” Atlantic, April 6, 2020.~~
~~Gregory D. Koblentz and Michael Hunzeker, “National Security in the Age of Pandemics,”~~
Defense One, April 3, 2020.
~~Nahal Toosi, “Coronavirus Rattles America’s National Security Priesthood,” Politico Pro, March~~
~~29, 2020.~~
~~Joseph S. Nye Jr., “COVID-19’s Painful Lesson about Strategy and Power,” War on the Rocks,~~
~~March 26, 2020.~~
~~Gary J. Schmitt, “National Security and the Pandemic of 2020,” American Interest, March 20,~~
~~2020.~~
~~U.S. Defense Strategy, Defense Budget, and Military Operations~~
America’s Strategic Choices: Defense Spending in a Post-Covid-19 World, An Executive Outbrief
From The CSBA–Ronald Reagan Institute Defense Worskhops, Center for Strategic and , Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments, January 2021, 13 pp. Budgetary Assessments, January 2021, 13 pp.
Tony Bertuca, “Lord Says Pandemic Sharpened DOD’s Focus on Re-Shoring, Especial y Tony Bertuca, “Lord Says Pandemic Sharpened DOD’s Focus on Re-Shoring, Especial y
Microelectronics,” Microelectronics,” Inside Defense, September 29, 2020. , September 29, 2020.
Mike Glenn, “Don’t Pay for COVID-19 Relief at Expense of Nation’s Defense, Esper Warns,” Mike Glenn, “Don’t Pay for COVID-19 Relief at Expense of Nation’s Defense, Esper Warns,”
Washington Times, September 24, 2020. , September 24, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
34

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Mackenzie Eaglen, “More Safety for Less Security Is a Sucker Bet,” American Enterprise Mackenzie Eaglen, “More Safety for Less Security Is a Sucker Bet,” American Enterprise
Institute, September 3, 2020. Institute, September 3, 2020.
Jon Harper, “Army a Potential Bil Payer for COVID-19 Costs,” Jon Harper, “Army a Potential Bil Payer for COVID-19 Costs,” National Defense, August 18, , August 18,
2020. 2020.
Matt Val one, “U.S. Defense Spending During and After the Pandemic,” Matt Val one, “U.S. Defense Spending During and After the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, July , July
31, 2020. 31, 2020.
Franklin C. Mil er, “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste,” Franklin C. Mil er, “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste,” Real Clear Defense, June 1, 2020. , June 1, 2020.
~~John C. Hulsman, “Defense Spending Post-Coronavirus: How to Walk and Chew Gum at the~~
~~Same Time,” The Hill, May 31, 2020.~~
~~Eric Gomez, Christopher A. Preble, Lauren Sander, and Brandon Valeriano, “Building a Modern~~
~~Military: The Force Meets Geopolitical Realities,” Cato Institute, May 26, 2020.~~
~~Courtney Albon, “AFWIC deputy: Air Force Needs New NDS Implementation Plan in Light of~~
~~COVID-19,” Inside Defense, May 27, 2020.~~
Eric Lofgren, “Wil Defense Budgets Remain ‘Sticky’ After the COVID-19 Pandemic?” Defense
News, May 26, 2020.
~~Bradley Bowman, “Don’t Use COVID As Excuse to Slash Defense Spending,” Breaking Defense,~~
~~May 20, 2020.~~
~~Missy Ryan, “Military Faces Another Potential Coronavirus Toll: Budget Cuts,” Washington Post,~~
~~May 15, 2020.~~
~~Morgan Dwyer, “Prioritizing Weapon System Cybersecurity in a Post-Pandemic Defense~~
~~Department,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 13, 2020.~~
Robert Burns, “Bulging Deficits May Threaten Prized Pentagon Arms Projects,” Associated
Press, May 12, 2020.
~~Loren Thompson, “Think You Know Where Defense Spending Is Headed After Coronavirus?~~
~~Guess Again,” Forbes, May 12, 2020.~~
~~Michael E. O’Hanlon, “From the Pentagon’s ‘4+1’ threat matrix, to ‘4+1 times 2,’” Brookings~~
~~Institution, May 11, 2020.~~
Steven Pifer, “Weapons, Opportunity Costs, COVID19 and Avoiding Nuclear War,” National
Interest, May 11, 2020.
~~Bryan Clark and Dan Platt, “The Post-Pandemic Military Wil Need to Improvise,” Defense One,~~
~~May 8, 2020.~~
~~Susan Montoya Bryan (Associated Press), “US Must Move Ahead with Work on Nukes, Says~~
~~Nuclear Security Boss,” Defense News, May 6, 2020.~~
~~Leo Shane III, “No Extra Money for Defense Amid Coronavirus Crisis, Think Tank Argues,”~~
Military Times, May 6, 2020.
~~Hal Brands, “Can a Broke America Fight a Cold War With China? The Coronavirus Has United~~
~~Americans Against Beijing’s Aggressions, But It Will Also Devastate the Pentagon Budget,”~~
Bloomberg, May 5, 2020.
~~Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, “Expand Missile Defenses During the Pandemic, Don’t Cut Them,”~~
Defense News, May 5, 2020.
~~Fred Kaplan, “Now Is the Time to Cut the Defense Budget,” Slate, May 5, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
35

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Paul McLeary, “Old Weapons Under Fire As COVID Debt Rises,” Breaking Defense, May 5,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Aaron Mehta, “Esper: Flat Budget Could Speed Cutting of Legacy Programs,” Defense News,~~
~~May 5, 2020.~~
~~John M. Donnel y, “US military poised for post-pandemic shift,” CQ (Congressional Quarterly),~~
~~May 4, 2020.~~
~~Ben Werner, “SECDEF Esper Preparing For Future Defense Spending Cuts,” USNI News, May 4,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Rebecca Kheel, “Defense Budget Brawl Looms After Pandemic,” The Hill, May 3, 2020.~~
Anrea Howard, “The Pandemic and America’s Response to Future Bioweapons,” War on the
Rocks, May 1, 2020.
~~Paul McLeary, “Pentagon Wary Of Adversaries Buying Defense Firms Amid Economic Crisis,”~~
Breaking Defense, April 30, 2020.
~~Ben Wolfgang, “U.S. Military Ramps Up Counterterrorism Operations in Africa Amid~~
~~Pandemic,” Washington Times, April 29, 2020.~~
~~David Barno and Nora Bensahel, “Five Ways the U.S. Military Will Change After the Pandemic,”~~
War on the Rocks, April 28, 2020.
~~Maiya Clark, “How Pentagon Is Protecting Defense Supply Chains From COVID-19,” Heritage~~
~~Foundation, April 27, 2020.~~
~~Theresa Hitchens, “DoD Budget Cuts Likely As $4 Tril ion Deficit Looms,” Breaking Defense,~~
~~April 27, 2020.~~
~~Walter Russel Mead, “The Century of Bioweapons,” Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2020.~~
~~Connor O’Brien, “Defense Boosters Fire Warning Shots over Budget Cuts Due to Pandemic,”~~
Politico Pro, April 24, 2020.
~~Natasha Bertrand, Daniel Lippman, and Lara Seligman, “Officials Probe the Threat of a~~
~~Coronavirus Bioweapon,” Politico Pro, April 23, 2020.~~
~~Wil iam D. Hartung, “Now Isn’t the Time to Push for Nuclear Modernization,” Defense News,~~
~~April 21, 2020.~~
~~Loren Thompson, “How Coronavirus Could Permanently Transform The U.S. Military,” Forbes,~~
~~April 20, 2020.~~
~~Todd Harrison, “DoD Must Identify Its ‘Crown Jewels’ in Preparation for Fiscal Uncertainty,”~~
Defense News, April 15, 2020.
~~Michael J. Mazarr, “Toward a New Theory of Power Projection,” War on the Rocks, April 15,~~
~~2020.~~
Robert Burns, “Military Sees No Quick Exit From ‘New World’ of Coronavirus,” Associated
Press, April 14, 2020.
Tony Bertuca, “Global Pandemic Threatens to Hobble National Defense Strategy,” Inside
Defense, April 13, 2020.
~~David Ignatius, “The Coronavirus Is Already Reshaping Defense Strategies,” Washington Post,~~
~~April 9, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
36U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee Policy Catherine Osborn, “How to Escape the COVID-19 Debt Trap, This Crisis May Be a Turning Point for How the IMF Treats Indebted Nations.,” Foreign Policy, June 4, 2021. Congressional Research Service 29 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Bernard Aryeetey, “G20 Debt Relief for Poor Nations Means COVID Healthcare Investment,” Thomson Reuters Foundation News, April 7, 2021.

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Daniel L. Davis, “Coronavirus Means No More Money for Forever Wars,” National Interest,~~
~~April 7, 2020.~~
Harrison Schramm, Kevin A. Chlan, Peter Kouretsos, COVID-19, Analysis and Policy
Implications, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2020 (released April 7, 2020), 31
~~pp.~~
~~Jason Sherman, “Analyst: Pandemic Wil Squeeze Defense Spending As Nation’s Focus Shifts to~~
~~Health Care,” Inside Defense, April 6, 2020.~~
Stratfor Worldview, “Wil the Coronavirus Ruin Countries’ Ability to Wage War?” National
Interest, April 5, 2020.
~~James G. Foggo III, “Germs: The Seventh Domain of Warfare,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings,~~
~~April 2020.~~
~~U.S. Foreign Assistance, International Debt Relief, and Refugee~~
~~Policy~~
Gabriele Steinhauser and Joe Wal ace, “Africa’s First Pandemic Default Tests New Effort to Ease Gabriele Steinhauser and Joe Wal ace, “Africa’s First Pandemic Default Tests New Effort to Ease
Debt From China, Effort to Ensure that China and Bondholders Participate in Debt Restructurings Debt From China, Effort to Ensure that China and Bondholders Participate in Debt Restructurings
Could Help Resolve Zambia’s Default,” Could Help Resolve Zambia’s Default,” Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2020. , November 18, 2020.
Dan Runde, Conor Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, Dan Runde, Conor Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, Post-pandemic Governance in the Indo-
Pacific, Adapting USAID’s Strategy in the Face of Covid-19, Center for Strategic and , Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), September 2020 International Studies (CSIS), September 2020 ~~(posted September 25, 2020), 11 pp.~~, 11 pp. (Posted online September 25, 2020.)
Sam Denney and Kemal Kirisci, “COVID-19 and the Chance to Reform U.S. Refugee Policy,” Sam Denney and Kemal Kirisci, “COVID-19 and the Chance to Reform U.S. Refugee Policy,”
Lawfare, August 18, 2020. , August 18, 2020.
Daniel F. Runde, “USAID Should Lead Global Pandemic Response in an Age of Great Power Daniel F. Runde, “USAID Should Lead Global Pandemic Response in an Age of Great Power
Competition,” Competition,” The Hill, August 17, 2020. , August 17, 2020.
Rayn El is, “Conservative Foreign Aid Can Strengthen US Interests in the Coronavirus Rayn El is, “Conservative Foreign Aid Can Strengthen US Interests in the Coronavirus
Recovery,” Recovery,” Washington Examiner, August 11, 2020. , August 11, 2020.
Jamil e Bigio and Haydn Welch, “As the Global Economy Melts Down, Human Trafficking Is Jamil e Bigio and Haydn Welch, “As the Global Economy Melts Down, Human Trafficking Is
Booming,” Booming,” Foreign Policy, August 10, 2020. , August 10, 2020.
Zuhumnan Dapel, “It Is Too Late to Save These Victims of the Pandemic, The COVID-19 Zuhumnan Dapel, “It Is Too Late to Save These Victims of the Pandemic, The COVID-19
Catastrophe Is Shrinking Remittances from the United States and Creating a Looming Catastrophe Is Shrinking Remittances from the United States and Creating a Looming
Humanitarian Disaster,” Humanitarian Disaster,” Foreign Policy, July 20, 2020. , July 20, 2020.
Frances D’Emilio, “UN: Pandemic Could Push Tens of Mil ions into Chronic Hunger,” Frances D’Emilio, “UN: Pandemic Could Push Tens of Mil ions into Chronic Hunger,”
Associated Press, July 13, 2020. , July 13, 2020.
Emily Hawthorne, “COVID-19 Cash Shortages Wil Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts,” Emily Hawthorne, “COVID-19 Cash Shortages Wil Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts,”
Stratfor, June 30, 2020. , June 30, 2020.
Olivia Enos, “The Danger for Refugees and the Most Vulnerable During COVID-19,” Heritage Olivia Enos, “The Danger for Refugees and the Most Vulnerable During COVID-19,” Heritage
Foundation, June 22, 2020. Foundation, June 22, 2020.
Stephanie Segel, “International Financial Institutions Step Up, but Debt Sustainability Looms Stephanie Segel, “International Financial Institutions Step Up, but Debt Sustainability Looms
Large for Future Support,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 21, 2020. Large for Future Support,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 21, 2020.
Joel Gehrke, “Fighting China with Foreign Aid: USAID Becomes a Critical Tool in Battle for Joel Gehrke, “Fighting China with Foreign Aid: USAID Becomes a Critical Tool in Battle for
World Influence,” World Influence,” Washington Examiner, May 10, 2020. , May 10, 2020.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
37

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Michael H. Fuchs, Alexandra Schmitt, and Haneul Lee, “Foreign Aid is Critical to Stopping the Michael H. Fuchs, Alexandra Schmitt, and Haneul Lee, “Foreign Aid is Critical to Stopping the
Coronavirus,” Coronavirus,” National Interest, May 3, 2020. , May 3, 2020.
Daniel F. Runde, Conor M. Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, “Covid-19 Has Consequences for Daniel F. Runde, Conor M. Savoy, and Shannon McKeown, “Covid-19 Has Consequences for
U.S. Foreign Aid and Global Leadership,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), U.S. Foreign Aid and Global Leadership,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),
May 1, 2020. May 1, 2020.
~~James Kynge and Sun Yu, “China Faces Wave of Cal s for Debt Relief on ‘Belt and Road’~~
~~Projects,” Financial Times, April 30, 2020.~~
~~Charles Holmes, Anthony Lake, and Witney Schneidman, “It’s Time to Help Africa Fight the~~
~~Virus, The Continent Is Ripe for a Public Health Disaster, and Western Powers Must Step in to~~
~~Prevent Another Global Catastrophe,” Foreign Policy, April 29, 2020.~~
~~Department of State, “The United States Continues Leadership in the Global COVID-19~~
~~Response With More Than $270 Mil ion in Additional U.S. Foreign Assistance,” press statement,~~
~~Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State, April 22, 2020.~~
Matthew Lee, “Virus Pandemic Collides with Trump’s Disdain for Foreign Aid,” Associated
Press, April 17, 2020.
Adam Tooze, “A Global Pandemic Bailout Was Coming—Until America Stopped It,” Foreign
Policy, April 17, 2020.
~~Editorial Board, “Even as Rich Countries Reel, It’s Imperative to Help Emerging Markets,”~~
Washington Post, April 16, 2020.
~~Dayo Israel, “Unless Canceled, Africa’s Debt Burden Will Cause COVID-19 to Kill Mil ions,”~~
Washington Examiner, April 16, 2020.
~~Cara Anna and Aya Batrawy, “Richest Countries Agree to Freeze Poorer Nations’ Debt,”~~
Associated Press, April 15, 2020.
~~Nahal Toosi, “Trump Hobbles Foreign Aid as Coronavirus Rips Around the World, Confusion at~~
~~the Top Has Crippled USAID at a Critical Time for the Global Battle Against the Pandemic,”~~
Politico, April 15, 2020.
~~Olivia Enos, “Responding to COVID-19 in Southeast Asia,” Heritage Foundation, April 14, 2020.~~
~~Josh Zumbrun, “G-7 Countries Support Debt Relief for Poorest Countries If Joined by Full G-~~
~~20,” Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2020.~~
~~Robbie Gramer, “Outgoing USAID Chief Says Pandemic Underscores Importance of Foreign~~
~~Aid,” Foreign Policy, April 13, 2020.~~
~~Josh Rogin, “The Pandemic Means the Trump Administration Must Stop Mistreating USAID,”~~
Washington Post, April 9, 2020.
~~Josh Rogin, “America’s $2 Tril ion Coronavirus Stimulus Package Ignores the Rest of the~~
~~World,” Washington Post, March 26, 2020.~~
~~Non-state Actors~~
Non-state Actors Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “Endangered Species Are Paying the Price of COVID-19, Diminishing Tourism Has Created New Incentives for the Il egal Wildlife Trade,” Foreign Policy, July 11, 2021. Kieran Guilbert, “Traffickers Seen Thriving in Europe as COVID-19 Hits Victim Support,” Reuters, April 9, 2021. Congressional Research Service 30 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Charlie Mitchel , “Palo Alto Networks Report Explores ‘Explosion’ in Cloud Attacks Amid COVID-19 pandemic, Inside Cybersecurity, April 6, 2021 Michael King and Sam Mullins, “COVID-19 and Terrorism in the West: Has Radicalization Michael King and Sam Mullins, “COVID-19 and Terrorism in the West: Has Radicalization
Real y Gone Viral?” Real y Gone Viral?” Just Security, March 4, 2021. , March 4, 2021.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
38

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “The Pandemic Is Putting Gangsters in Power, As Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “The Pandemic Is Putting Gangsters in Power, As
States Struggle, Organized Crime Is Rising to New Prominence,” States Struggle, Organized Crime Is Rising to New Prominence,” Foreign Policy, February 15, , February 15,
2021. 2021.
Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “How to Run a Criminal Network in a Pandemic, Lindsey Kennedy and Nathan Paul Southern, “How to Run a Criminal Network in a Pandemic,
Drug Dealers and Human Traffickers Are Upgrading Their Marketing and Delivery Services,” Drug Dealers and Human Traffickers Are Upgrading Their Marketing and Delivery Services,”
Foreign Policy, September 5, 2020. , September 5, 2020.
Joby Warrick, “Covid-19 Pandemic Is Stoking Extremist Flames Worldwide, Analysts Warn,” Joby Warrick, “Covid-19 Pandemic Is Stoking Extremist Flames Worldwide, Analysts Warn,”
Washington Post, July 9, 2020. , July 9, 2020.
Ioan Gril o, “How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Profiting From the Pandemic,” Ioan Gril o, “How Mexico’s Drug Cartels Are Profiting From the Pandemic,” New York Times, ,
July 7, 2020. July 7, 2020.
Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Provides Opportunity for Terrorists,” Edith M. Lederer, “UN Chief Warns COVID-19 Provides Opportunity for Terrorists,” Associated
Press, July 6, 2020. , July 6, 2020.
Robin Simcox, “Terrorism After the Pandemic, Months of Isolation and Governments Grappling Robin Simcox, “Terrorism After the Pandemic, Months of Isolation and Governments Grappling
with Other Crises Could Lead to a Rise in Attacks,” with Other Crises Could Lead to a Rise in Attacks,” Foreign Policy, July 2, 2020. , July 2, 2020.
Zachary Abuza and Alif Satria, “How Are Indonesia’s Terrorist Groups Weathering the Zachary Abuza and Alif Satria, “How Are Indonesia’s Terrorist Groups Weathering the
Pandemic?” Pandemic?” Diplomat, June 23, 2020. , June 23, 2020.
Camilo Tamayo Gomez, “Coronavirus: Drug Cartels Functioning as Governing Bodies Could Camilo Tamayo Gomez, “Coronavirus: Drug Cartels Functioning as Governing Bodies Could
Receive Popularity Boost,” Receive Popularity Boost,” National Interest, June 23, 2020. , June 23, 2020.
Simon Harding, “How Gangs and Drug Dealers Adapted to the Pandemic Reality,” Simon Harding, “How Gangs and Drug Dealers Adapted to the Pandemic Reality,” National
Interest, June 22, 2020. , June 22, 2020.
Nikita Malik, “How to Prepare for the Coronavirus’s Impact on Terrorism,” Nikita Malik, “How to Prepare for the Coronavirus’s Impact on Terrorism,” National Interest, ,
June 21, 2020. June 21, 2020.
Anthony Faiola and Lucien Chauvin, “The Coronavirus Has Gutted the Price of Coca. It Could Anthony Faiola and Lucien Chauvin, “The Coronavirus Has Gutted the Price of Coca. It Could
Reshape the Cocaine Trade,” Reshape the Cocaine Trade,” Washington Post, June 9, 2020. , June 9, 2020.
Alexandra Lamarche, Arden Bentley, Rachel Schmidtke, and Sahar Atrache, “The Coronavirus Alexandra Lamarche, Arden Bentley, Rachel Schmidtke, and Sahar Atrache, “The Coronavirus
Has Become Terrorists’ Combat Weapon of Choice,” Has Become Terrorists’ Combat Weapon of Choice,” National Interest, June 9, 2020. , June 9, 2020.
~~Audrey Wilson, “Goodbye, Government. Hel o, Mafia. From Insurgent Groups to Charities, a~~
~~Range of Nongovernmental Organizations Are Stepping In to Respond to the Coronavirus~~
~~Crisis,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020.~~
~~Ryan Browne, “ISIS Seeks to Exploit Pandemic to Mount Resurgence in Iraq and Syria,” CNN,~~
~~May 8, 2020.~~
~~Robert Muggah, “The Pandemic Has Triggered Dramatic Shifts in the Global Criminal~~
~~Underworld,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2020.~~
~~Ashley Jackson, “For the Taliban, the Pandemic Is a Ladder,” Foreign Policy, May 6, 2020.~~
~~Brandon Prins, “Why Coronavirus May Lead to More Piracy,” National Interest, May 6, 2020.~~
~~Emilia Columbo and Mariel e Harris, “Extremist Groups Stepping up Operations during the~~
~~Covid-19 Outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),~~
~~May 1, 2020.~~
~~Lydia Khalil, “COVID-19 and America’s Counter-Terrorism Response,” War on the Rocks, May~~
~~1, 2020.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
39

~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

~~Luke Baker, “Militants, Fringe Groups Exploiting COVID-19, Warns EU Anti-Terrorism Chief,”~~
Reuters, April 30, 2020.
~~Joseph Hincks, “With the World Busy Fighting COVID-19, Could ISIS Mount a Resurgence?”~~
Time, April 29, 2020.
~~Luis Fajardo, “Coronavirus: Latin American Crime Gangs Adapt to Pandemic,” BBC, April 22,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Raffael o Pantucci, “After the Coronavirus, Terrorism Won’t Be the Same,” Foreign Policy, April~~
~~22, 2020.~~
~~Valentina Di Donato and Tim Lister, “The Mafia Is Poised to Exploit Coronavirus, and Not Just~~
~~in Italy,” CNN, April 19, 2020.~~
~~Jim Mustian and Jake Bleiberg, “‘Cartels Are Scrambling’: Virus Snarls Global Drug Trade,”~~
Associated Press, April 19, 2020.
~~Colum Lynch, “How Trump and Putin Weakened U.N. Bid for a Global Cease-Fire, U.S. Officials~~
~~Worry That Counterterrorism Operations Wil Be Constrained,” Foreign Policy, April 17, 2020.~~
~~Seth J. Frantzman, “Iran Regime, ISIS and Other Extremists Exploit Coronavirus to Wreak~~
~~Havoc,” Jerusalem Post, April 16, 2020.~~
~~Kevin Sieff, Susannah George, and Kareem Fahim, “Now Joining the Fight Against Coronavirus:~~
~~The World’s Armed Rebels, Drug Cartels and Gangs,” Washington Post, April 14, 2020.~~
~~Souad Mekhennet, “Far-Right and Radical Islamist Groups Are Exploiting Coronavirus Turmoil,”~~
Washington Post, April 10, 2020.
~~Yonah Jeremy Bob, “Coronavirus Economic Impact Could Block Iran from Funding Terror—~~
~~INSS,” Jerusalem Post, April 7, 2020.~~
~~Vanda Felbab-Brown, “What Coronavirus Means for Online Fraud, Forced Sex, Drug Smuggling~~
~~and Wildlife Trafficking,” Lawfare, April 3, 2020.~~
~~Cara Anna, “Extremists See Global Chaos from Virus As An Opportunity,” Associated Press,~~
~~April 2, 2020.~~
U.S. Attention to International Issues Other than COVID-19
David Ignatius, “The Rest of the World Is Taking Advantage of a Distracted America,” David Ignatius, “The Rest of the World Is Taking Advantage of a Distracted America,”
Washington Post, October 6, 2020. , October 6, 2020.
David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Edward Wong, “As Virus Toll Preoccupies U.S., Rivals Test David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Edward Wong, “As Virus Toll Preoccupies U.S., Rivals Test
Limits of American Power,” Limits of American Power,” New York Times, June 1 (updated June 2), 2020. , June 1 (updated June 2), 2020.
James Jay Carafano, “Amid Coronavirus, Global Chal enges Remain for U.S.—Keep Eye on James Jay Carafano, “Amid Coronavirus, Global Chal enges Remain for U.S.—Keep Eye on
These 3 Hot Spots,” Heritage Foundation, May 20, 2020. These 3 Hot Spots,” Heritage Foundation, May 20, 2020.
Kathrin Hil e, “Taiwan Fears Uptick in Military Threat from China in Wake of Coronavirus,” Kathrin Hil e, “Taiwan Fears Uptick in Military Threat from China in Wake of Coronavirus,”
Financial Times, May 18, 2020. , May 18, 2020.
Congressional Research Service 31 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment Steven Erlanger, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis?” Steven Erlanger, “Wil the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis?” New York Times, May , May
9 (updated May 11), 2020. 9 (updated May 11), 2020.
Steve Mollman, “China’s South China Sea Plan Unfolds Regardless of the Coronavirus,” Steve Mollman, “China’s South China Sea Plan Unfolds Regardless of the Coronavirus,” Quartz, ,
May 9, 2020. May 9, 2020.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Thomas Spoehr, “U.S. Can’t Afford to Take Its Eye off the Bal As National Threats Loom Thomas Spoehr, “U.S. Can’t Afford to Take Its Eye off the Bal As National Threats Loom
Beyond COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation, May 8, 2020. Beyond COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation, May 8, 2020.
Arjun Kapur, “Scotland Launched an Invasion During the Black Death. Does History Tel China Arjun Kapur, “Scotland Launched an Invasion During the Black Death. Does History Tel China
to Attack Taiwan?” to Attack Taiwan?” National Interest, May 2, 2020. , May 2, 2020.
Con Coughlin, “China Exploiting the Coronavirus Pandemic to Expand in Asia,” Gatestone
Institute, April 30, 2020.
~~Corinne Redfern, “The Pandemic’s Hidden Human Trafficking Crisis, The Coronavirus Has~~
~~Created More People Vulnerable to Exploitation by Traffickers—and Revealed the World’s~~
~~Unpreparedness to Protect Them,” Foreign Policy, April 30, 2020.~~
~~Paul Haenle, “Security Concerns in Asia-Pacific Escalate Amid Coronavirus Scramble, While the~~
~~Trump Administration Is Consumed with the Coronavirus, China and North Korea Are Seizing~~
~~the Moment for Strategic Advantage,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 29,~~
~~2020.~~
~~Bertil Lintner, “Time May Be Ripe for China to Invade Taiwan, Pandemic Has Left a US Security~~
~~Vacuum Around the Self-Governing Island China Has Oft-Vowed to ‘Reincorporate’ with the~~
~~Mainland,” Asia Times, April 28, 2020.~~
~~Victor Davis Hanson, “Pandemic Only 1 of America’s Security Concerns,” Daily Signal, April~~
~~23, 2020.~~
~~Emily Estel e, “Eyes on the Other Global Crises,” Real Clear World, April 21, 2020.~~
~~Yew Lun Tian and Ben Blanchard, “China Rattles Sabres as World Battles Coronavirus~~
~~Pandemic,” Reuters, April 21, 2020.~~
~~Gordon Lubold and Dion Nissenbaum, “With Trump Facing Virus Crisis, U.S. Warns Rivals Not~~
~~to Seek Advantage,” Wall Street Journal, April 20, 2020.~~
~~El en Mitchel , “Foreign Powers Test US Defenses Amid Coronavirus Pandemic,” The Hill, April~~
~~19, 2020.~~
~~Karen DeYoung, “Foreign Policy Chal enges Persist for a Distracted U.S. in the Midst of~~
~~Pandemic,” Washington Post, April 10, 2020.~~
~~Sylvie Lanteaume (Agence France-Presse), “Hit by Virus, Pentagon Warns Enemies: Don’t Test~~
~~Us,” Yahoo News, April 10, 2020.~~
~~“With the world distracted, China intimidates Taiwan,” Economist, April 8, 2020. (This article~~
~~does not list an author.)~~
~~Role of Congress~~
~~Daniel P. Vajdich, “Congress Has Been AWOL on U.S. Coronavirus Diplomacy, The Invisibility~~
Role of Congress Daniel P. Vajdich, “Congress Has Been AWOL on U.S. Coronavirus Diplomacy, The Invisibility and Silence of Congress Is Another Reason for America’s Shocking Abdication of Global and Silence of Congress Is Another Reason for America’s Shocking Abdication of Global
Leadership,” Leadership,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020. , May 22, 2020.
George Ingram and Jeffrey L. Sturchio, “How Congress Can Address the International George Ingram and Jeffrey L. Sturchio, “How Congress Can Address the International
Dimensions of the COVID-19 Response,” Brookings Institution, April 15, 2020. Dimensions of the COVID-19 Response,” Brookings Institution, April 15, 2020.
Rob Berschinski and Benjamin Haas, “How Congress Can Save Lives, Protect Rights, and Exert Rob Berschinski and Benjamin Haas, “How Congress Can Save Lives, Protect Rights, and Exert
U.S. Leadership Global y in Response to Coronavirus,” U.S. Leadership Global y in Response to Coronavirus,” Just Security, April 8, 2020. , April 8, 2020.
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~~COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment~~

Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, “Pandemic Stymies Congressional Check on Trump’s Foreign Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, “Pandemic Stymies Congressional Check on Trump’s Foreign
Policy,” Policy,” Foreign Policy, April 8, 2020. , April 8, 2020.

Author Information

Ronald O'Rourke Ronald O'Rourke
Kathleen J. McInnis Kathleen J. McInnis
Specialist in Naval Affairs Specialist in Naval Affairs
Specialist in International Security Specialist in International Security

Acknowledgments
A third original coauthor of this report was Michael Moodie, who was Assistant Director of t he Foreign A third original coauthor of this report was Michael Moodie, who was Assistant Director of t he Foreign
Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS and a Senior Specialist in Foreign Affairs, Defense , and Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS and a Senior Specialist in Foreign Affairs, Defense , and
Trade until his retirement from CRS in December 2020.Trade until his retirement from CRS in December 2020.
Congressional Research Service 32 COVID-19: Potential Implications for International Security Environment
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