North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation

Summary

North Korea has presented one of the most vexing and persistent problems in U.S. foreign policy in the post-Cold War period. The United States has never had formal diplomatic relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (the official name for North Korea), although since 2000 contact at a lower level has ebbed and flowed. Negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons program have occupied the past three U.S. administrations, even as some analysts anticipated a collapse of the isolated authoritarian regime. North Korea has been the recipient of over $1 billion in U.S. aid (though none since 2009) and the target of dozens of U.S. sanctions.

Negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons program began in the early 1990s under the Clinton Administration. As U.S. policy toward Pyongyang evolved through the 2000s, the negotiations moved from a bilateral format to the multilateral Six-Party Talks (made up of China, Japan, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, and the United States). Although the talks reached some key agreements that laid out deals for aid and recognition to North Korea in exchange for denuclearization, major problems with implementation persisted. The talks have been suspended throughout the Obama Administration. As diplomacy remains stalled, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear and missile programs in the absence of any agreement it considers binding. Security analysts are concerned about this growing capability, as well as the potential for proliferation to other actors.

After North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's death in December 2011, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, has consolidated authority as supreme leader. Kim has ruled brutally, carrying out large-scale purges of senior officials. He has declared a two-track policy (the byungjin line) that pursues economic development and nuclear weapons development. Market-oriented reforms announced in 2014 appear to be producing modest economic growth for some citizens, but the reforms are small in scale and reversible. North Korea continues to insist that it be recognized as a nuclear-armed state and in January 2016 conducted its fourth nuclear weapon test. North Korea is already under multiple international sanctions required by the United Nations Security Council in response to its repeated missile and nuclear tests.

In 2012, the U.S.-North Korean "Leap Day" agreement fell apart after Pyongyang launched a long-range ballistic missile in April, followed by a more successful launch and a third nuclear test in February 2013. During this period, North Korea's relations with China apparently cooled and have remained tense. Pyongyang has made fleeting, mostly unsuccessful attempts to reach out to other countries in the region. Simultaneously, international attention to North Korea's human rights violations intensified at the United Nations and in official U.S. statements.

North Korea's intransigence and the stalled negotiations present critical questions for the United States. Do the nuclear tests and successful long-range missile launch fundamentally change the strategic calculus? Has North Korea's capacity to hurt U.S. interests increased to the point that new diplomatic and perhaps military options should be considered more carefully? What could the Six Party Talks achieve if North Korea insists on recognition as a nuclear-armed state? Does the United States need a strategy that relies less on Beijing's willingness to punish Pyongyang? Do North Korea's nuclear advances mean that the Obama Administration's approach (known as "strategic patience") is too risky to continue? Should the United States pursue engagement initiatives that push for steps toward denuclearization?

Although the primary focus of U.S. policy toward North Korea is the nuclear weapons program, there are a host of other contentious issues, including Pyongyang's missile programs, conventional military forces, illicit activities, and abysmal human rights record.

This report will be updated periodically.

Sources: Production by CRS using data from ESRI, and the U.S. State Department's Office of the Geographer.

A country of about 25 million people, North Korea has presented one of the most vexing and persistent problems in U.S. foreign policy in the post-Cold War period. The United States has never had formal diplomatic relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, the official name for North Korea). Negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons program have occupied the past three administrations, even as some analysts anticipated a collapse of the diplomatically isolated regime in Pyongyang. North Korea has been both the recipient of hundreds of millions of dollars of U.S. aid (official aid ceased in 2009) and the target of dozens of U.S. sanctions. Once considered a relic of the Cold War, the divided Korean peninsula has become an arena of more subtle strategic and economic competition among the region's powers.

U.S. interests in North Korea encompass serious security, political, and human rights concerns. Bilateral military alliances with the Republic of Korea (ROK, the official name for South Korea) and Japan obligate the United States to defend these allies from any attack from the North. Tens of thousands of U.S. troops occupying the largest U.S. military bases in the Pacific are stationed within striking range of North Korean missiles. An outbreak of conflict on the Korean peninsula or the collapse of the government in Pyongyang would have severe implications for the regional—if not global—economy. Negotiations and diplomacy surrounding North Korea's nuclear weapons program influence U.S. relations with all the major powers in the region and have become a complicating factor for U.S.-China ties.

At the center of this complicated intersection of geostrategic interests is the task of dealing with an isolated, totalitarian regime. Unfettered by many of the norms that govern international diplomacy, the leadership in Pyongyang, now headed by its dynastic "Great Successor" Kim Jong-un, is unpredictable and opaque. Little is known about the young leader and the policymaking system in Pyongyang. U.S. policymakers face a daunting challenge in navigating a course toward a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue.

Governments around the world condemned the nuclear weapon test as a flagrant violation of several United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. The UNSC convened an emergency meeting and began work on a resolution that would impose additional sanctions and punitive measures on North Korea. U.S. officials announced that a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber flew over South Korea four days after the test to conduct exercises with U.S. and South Korean aircraft.

China's reaction to the test—a strongly-worded criticism that stressed the need for North Korea to denuclearize—seemed to confirm Beijing's strained relations with Pyongyang. Under Kim Jong-un, now entering his fifth year in power, China's role as North Korea's benefactor and protector appears to have diminished. Yet China still provides critical assistance and trade to the isolated nation and does not appear to have adjusted its fundamental strategic calculus that opposes a collapse of the regime, fearing a flood of refugees and instability on its border. Following the test, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that China could not continue "business as usual" and that its approach to North Korea had not been successful.³ Chinese officials retorted that U.S. policy bore much of the blame for North Korea's moves toward a nuclear capability. Some analysts pointed out that this testy exchange exposed a stark gap between Beijing and Washington's approach to North Korea, a development that may have pleased Pyongyang.

Since early 2015, reports about modest economic growth in North Korea have appeared in the media. A series of tentative economic reforms announced in 2014 appear, according to some sources, to have lifted the living standard for a portion of ordinary North Koreans.⁴ The reforms, which apply market principles in a limited manner to some sectors of North Korean business and agriculture, have created opportunities for economic growth in the impoverished country. In the cities, practices such as allowing managers to set salaries and hire or fire workers are permitted. In the countryside, agricultural reforms allow for farmers to keep a larger portion of their harvest, relaxing the system of fixed rations, and reduced the size of farming collectives to individual households to increase production incentives. Journalists report a bustle of commerce and trade across the border with China, including scores of labor compounds on the Chinese side that employ North Korean workers and large-scale construction taking place on the North Korean side.⁵ Economists caution that these reforms are modest in scale and are far from irreversible, but they may be enough to lift North Korea's moribund economy from its low base. Furthermore, the Kim Jong-un regime appears to have allowed the unofficial market economy (mostly small businesses, including street stalls) to continue to function.

In his four years as supreme leader, Kim Jong-un appears to have consolidated his leadership and demonstrated a brutal hand in leading North Korea. He has carried out a series of purges of senior-level officials, including the execution of Jang Song-taek, his uncle by marriage, in 2013. In May 2015, Defense Minister Hyon Yong-chol was reportedly executed. South Korean intelligence sources say that about half of the top 200 military and bureaucratic officials have been replaced since Kim took power.⁷ Analysts differ over whether this means Kim has further cemented his hold on power or whether this could portend insecurity and potential instability within the regime.

Kim has yet to meet with a foreign head-of-state and has not traveled overseas since assuming power. Although he was expected to visit Moscow in May 2015 to attend a ceremony celebrating the 70^th anniversary of Russia's defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, Kim cancelled at the last minute. Kim similarly rebuffed an invitation from Beijing to attend China's World War II commemoration in September 2015.

North Korea's nuclear weapons program has concerned the United States for three decades. In 1986, U.S. intelligence detected the start-up of a plutonium production reactor and reprocessing plant at Yongbyon, which were not subject to international monitoring. In the early 1990s, after agreeing to and then obstructing International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). According to statements by former Clinton Administration officials, a preemptive military strike on the North's nuclear facilities was seriously considered as the crisis developed. Discussion of sanctions at the United Nations Security Council and a diplomatic mission from former President Jimmy Carter diffused the tension and eventually led to the U.S.-North Korea 1994 Agreed Framework, under which the United States agreed to arrange for North Korea to receive two light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants and heavy fuel oil in exchange for North Korea freezing and eventually dismantling its plutonium program under IAEA supervision. The document also outlined a path toward normalization of diplomatic and economic relations as well as security assurances.

Beset by problems from the start, the Agreed Framework faced multiple reactor construction and funding delays. Still, the fundamentals of the agreement were implemented: North Korea froze its plutonium program, heavy fuel oil was delivered to the North Koreans, and LWR construction commenced. However, North Korea had not complied with commitments to declare all nuclear facilities to the IAEA and put them under safeguards. In 2002, the George W. Bush Administration confronted North Korea about a suspected uranium enrichment program,⁸ which the North Koreans then denied publicly. With these new concerns, heavy fuel oil shipments were halted, and construction of the LWRs—well behind schedule—was suspended. North Korea then expelled IAEA inspectors from the Yongbyon site, announced its withdrawal from the NPT, and restarted its reactor and reprocessing facility after an eight-year freeze.

North Korea's Illicit Activities") and then degenerated further with North Korea's test of a nuclear device in October 2006.⁹

In February 2007, Six-Party Talks negotiators announced an agreement that would provide economic and diplomatic benefits to North Korea in exchange for a freeze and disablement of Pyongyang's nuclear facilities. This was followed by an October 2007 agreement that more specifically laid out the implementation plans, including the disablement of the Yongbyon facilities, a North Korean declaration of its nuclear programs, delivery of heavy fuel oil, and a U.S. promise to lift economic sanctions on North Korea and remove North Korea from the U.S. designation under the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) and list of state sponsors of terrorism. The plutonium program was again frozen and placed under international monitoring with the United States providing assistance for disabling of key nuclear facilities. Under the leadership of Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill, the Bush Administration pushed ahead on the deal. It removed the TWEA designation in June 2008 after North Korea submitted a declaration of its plutonium program. After terms of a verification protocol were verbally agreed upon in October 2008, the United States removed North Korea from the terrorism list.¹⁰ However, disputes over the specifics of the verification protocol between Washington and Pyongyang stalled the process again. North Korea did continue to disable portions of its Yongbyon facility through April 2009, when it expelled international inspectors following a ballistic missile test and subsequent UNSC sanctions. In May 2009, North Korea tested a second nuclear device.

The Obama administration's policy toward North Korea, often referred to as "strategic patience," is to put pressure on the regime in Pyongyang while insisting that North Korea return to the Six-Party Talks. The main elements of the policy involve insisting that Pyongyang commit to steps toward denuclearization as previously promised in the Six-Party Talks; closely coordinating with treaty allies Japan and South Korea; attempting to convince China to take a tougher line on North Korea; and applying pressure on Pyongyang through arms interdictions and sanctions. U.S. officials have stated that, under the right conditions, they seek a comprehensive package deal for North Korea's complete denuclearization in return for normalization of relations and significant aid, but have insisted on a freeze of its nuclear activities and a moratorium on testing before returning to negotiations. This policy has been closely coordinated with South Korea and accompanied by large-scale military exercises designed to demonstrate the strength of the U.S.-South Korean alliance.

In addition to multilateral sanctions required by the United Nations, the Obama Administration has issued several executive orders to implement the U.N. sanctions or to declare additional unilateral sanctions. In August 2010, Executive Order (EO) 13551 targeted entities engaged in the export or procurement of a number of North Korea's illicit activities, including money laundering, arms sales, counterfeiting, narcotics, and luxury goods. The White House also designated five North Korean entities and three individuals for sanctions under an existing executive order announced by President George W. Bush that targets the sales and procurement of weapons of mass destruction. In April 2011, EO 13570 imposed sanctions on 15 more firms, both North Korean and others who dealt with North Korea. Following the November 2014 cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, which the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) attributed to North Korean hackers, President Obama issued EO 13687, enabling the U.S. government to seize the assets of designated DPRK officials and those working on behalf of North Korea.

Despite the overtures for engagement after Obama took office, a series of provocations from Pyongyang halted progress on furthering negotiations. These violations of international law initiated a periodic cycle of action and reaction, in which the United States focused on building consensus at the UNSC and punishing North Korea through enhanced multilateral sanctions. A long-range ballistic missile test in May 2009 and a second nuclear weapon test in November 2009 spurred the passage of UNSC Resolution 1874, which outlines a series of sanctions to deny financial benefits to the Kim regime. Three years later, this cycle repeated itself: North Korea launched two long-range missiles in 2012, the UNSC responded with rebukes, North Korea tested a nuclear device in February 2013, and the United States again wrangled yet harsher sanctions through the UNSC (Resolutions 2087 and 2094). As of mid-January 2016, the UNSC was debating how to respond to the January 6 nuclear test, even as some analysts expected North Korea to conduct another test of a nuclear weapon or a long-range ballistic missile later in the year.

Since President Obama took office, North Korea has demanded that it be recognized as a nuclear weapons state and that a peace treaty with the United States must be a prerequisite to denuclearization. The former demand presents a diplomatic and semantic dilemma: despite repeatedly acknowledging that North Korea has tested nuclear devices, U.S. officials have insisted that North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons is "unacceptable."

After years of observing North Korea's negotiating behavior, many analysts believe that such demands are simply tactical moves by Pyongyang and that North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons in exchange for aid and recognition.¹⁴ The multinational military intervention in 2011 in Libya, which abandoned its nuclear weapon program in exchange for the removal of sanctions, may have had the undesirable side effect of reinforcing the perceived value of nuclear arms for regime security. North Korean leaders may believe that, without the security guarantee of nuclear weapons, they are vulnerable to overthrow by a rebellious uprising aided by outside military intervention. In April 2010, North Korea reiterated its demand to be recognized as an official nuclear weapons state and said it would increase and modernize its nuclear deterrent. On April 13, 2012, the same day as the failed rocket launch, the North Korean constitution was revised to describe the country as a "nuclear-armed nation." In March 2013, North Korea declared that its nuclear weapons are "not a bargaining chip" and would not be relinquished even for "billions of dollars."¹⁵ North Korea has also suggested that it will not relinquish its nuclear stockpile until all nuclear weapons are eliminated worldwide.¹⁶ The apparent intention of Pyongyang to retain its nascent nuclear arsenal raises difficult questions for Washington about the methods and purpose of diplomatic negotiations to denuclearize North Korea. Debate continues on the proper strategic response. Options range from trying to squeeze the dictatorship to the point of collapse, to buying time and trying to prevent proliferation and other severely destabilizing events.

U.S. policy to pressure North Korea depends heavily on China's influence. In addition to being North Korea's largest trading partner by far—accounting for about 70% of North Korea's total trade—China also provides food and energy aid that is an essential lifeline for the regime in Pyongyang. China's overriding priority appears to be to prevent the collapse of North Korea. Analysts assess that Beijing fears the destabilizing effects of a humanitarian crisis, significant refugee flows over its borders, and the uncertainty of how other nations, particularly the United States, would assert themselves on the peninsula in the event of a power vacuum. Beijing is supporting joint industrial projects between China's northeastern provinces and North Korea's northern border region. Some Chinese leaders also may see strategic value in having North Korea as a "buffer" between China and democratic, U.S.-allied South Korea.

However, since 2010 an increasing number of Chinese academics have called for a reappraisal of China's friendly ties with North Korea, citing the material and reputational costs to China of maintaining such ties. The rhetorical emphasis Chinese leaders now place on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula—reportedly even in meetings with North Korean officials—may suggest that Beijing's patience could be waning. In what is viewed by many observers as a diplomatic snub, Chinese President Xi Jinping has had several summits with South Korean President Park Geun-hye but has yet to meet with the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-un has displayed a different style of ruling than his father while hewing closely to the policies established before his December 2011 succession as supreme leader. Kim has allowed Western influences, such as clothing styles and Disney characters, to be displayed in the public sphere, and he is informal in his frequent public appearances. In a stark change from his father's era, Kim Jong-un's wife was introduced to the North Korean public. Analysts depict these stylistic changes as an attempt to make Kim seem young and modern and to conjure associations with the "man of the people" image cultivated by his grandfather, the revered founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung.

Rhetoric from the Kim Jong-un regime has emphasized improving the quality of life for North Korean citizens. North Korea has been experimenting with economic reforms: breaking up farming collectives into individual household units to increase supply incentives, allowing private investments into businesses (with official approval), and allowing businesses to pay workers based on performance, for example. The range of modern amenities available to the privileged residents of Pyongyang has expanded to include items like modified smartphones and European cosmetics—luxuries unheard of outside the uppermost elite just years ago—while most North Koreans outside the capital region continue to live in meager circumstances.

The purge and execution in December 2013 of Jang Song-taek, North Korea's second most powerful figure, reverberated in policy circles both for its reported brutality and for its potential implications for political stability in Pyongyang. The move was announced by official North Korean media outlets, including footage of Jang being hauled away by security forces. Jang's removal was unusual because of his elite status (in addition to his official titles, he was Kim Jong-un's uncle by marriage) and because of how publically it was conveyed both to the outside world and to North Koreans. Jang's downfall completed nearly a total sweep of late ruler Kim Jong-il's inner circle. Jang's departure eliminated one of Beijing's main contact points with the regime; Jang had been seen as relatively friendly to Chinese-style economic reforms and business ties. It is likely that the chilly state of Pyongyang-Beijing relations since 2014 is partly due to the purge of Jang.

The North Korean regime remains extraordinarily opaque, but a trickle of news works its way out through defectors and other channels. These forms of grass-roots information gathering, along with the public availability of high-quality satellite imagery, have democratized the business of intelligence on North Korea. In 2011, the Associated Press became the first Western news agency to open a bureau in Pyongyang, though its reporters are subject to severe restrictions. Previously, South Korean intelligence services had generally provided the bulk of information known about the North.

U.S. analysts remain concerned about the pace and success of North Korea's nuclear weapons development. The DNI assesses that North Korea views its nuclear capabilities as intended for "deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy." North Korea has said that it will not get rid of its nuclear weapons until all the other nuclear weapons states do so. North Korea announced on January 6, 2016, that it successfully tested a "hydrogen bomb" (its fourth nuclear weapon test since 2006 and first since February 2013). The U.S. government confirmed that the underground explosion was a nuclear test, but a White House spokesman said that initial data was "not consistent" with North Korean claims of detonating a full-fledged thermonuclear hydrogen bomb. North Korea's first three nuclear weapons tests were of fission devices.²⁵

Generally, countries would test a boosted fission weapon as the next step after testing fission weapons, on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb. This type of device would be lighter in weight and smaller in size than a fission weapon with comparable yield. The U.S. intelligence community has said that the prime objective of North Korea's nuclear weapons program is to develop a nuclear warhead that is "miniaturized" or sufficiently small to be mounted on long-range ballistic missiles, but assessments of progress have differed. The official position of the DNI is that "North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile."²⁶ Miniaturization likely would require additional nuclear and missile tests. Perhaps the most acute near-term threat to other nations is from the medium-range Nodong missile, which could reach all of the Korean Peninsula and some of mainland Japan. Some experts assess that North Korea likely has the capability to mount a nuclear warhead on the Nodong missile.²⁷

The North Korean nuclear program began in the late 1950s with cooperation agreements with the Soviet Union on a nuclear research program near Yongbyon. Its first research reactor began operation in 1967. North Korea used indigenous expertise and foreign procurements to build a small nuclear reactor at Yongbyon (5 MWe). It was capable of producing about 6 kilograms (kg) of plutonium per year and began operating in 1986.²⁸ Later that year, U.S. satellites detected high explosives testing and a new plant to separate plutonium from the reactor's spent fuel (a chemical reprocessing plant). Over the past two decades, the reactor and reprocessing facility have been alternately operational and frozen under safeguards put in place as the result of the 1994 Agreed Framework and again in 2007, under the Six Party Talks. Since the Six Party Talks' collapse in 2008, North Korea has restarted its 5MW(e) reactor, has made steps to restart the reprocessing plant, has openly built a uranium enrichment plant for an alternative source of weapons material, and is constructing a new experimental light water reactor. It is generally estimated in open sources that North Korea has produced between 30 and 40 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons.

While North Korea's weapons program has been plutonium-based from the start, intelligence emerged in the late 1990s pointing to a second route to a bomb using highly enriched uranium. North Korea openly acknowledged a uranium enrichment program in 2009, but has said its purpose is the production of fuel for nuclear power. In November 2010, North Korea showed visiting American experts early construction of a 100 MWT light-water reactor and a newly built gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, both at the Yongbyon site. The North Koreans claimed the enrichment plant was operational, but this has not been independently confirmed. U.S. officials have said that it is likely other clandestine enrichment facilities exist. Enrichment (as well as reprocessing) technology can be used to produce material for nuclear weapons or fuel for power reactors. An enrichment capability could potentially provide North Korea with a faster way of making nuclear material for weapons and therefore is of great concern to policymakers. Estimates of enriched uranium stockpiles are not publicly available due to the lack of open-source information about the size and capacity of the program.

According to congressional testimony by Curtis Scaparrotti, Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, North Korea has "one of the world's largest chemical weapons stockpiles."³⁰ North Korea is widely reported to possess a large arsenal of chemical weapons, including mustard, phosgene, and sarin gas. Open source reporting estimates that North Korea has approximately 12 facilities where raw chemicals, precursors, and weapon agents are produced and/or stored, as well as six major storage depots for chemical weapons.³¹ North Korea is estimated to have a chemical weapon production capability up to 4,500 metric tons during a typical year and 12,000 tons during a period of crisis, with a current inventory of 2,500 to 5,000 tons, according to the South Korean Ministry of National Defense.³² A RAND analysis says that "1 ton of the chemical weapon sarin could cause tens of thousands of fatalities" and that if North Korea at some point decides to attack one or more of its neighbors, South Korea and Japan would be "the most likely targets."³³ North Korea is not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which bans the use and stockpiling of chemical weapons.

North Korea places a high priority on the continued development of its ballistic missile technology.³⁷ Despite international condemnation and prohibitions in UNSC resolutions, North Korea twice in 2012 launched long-range rockets carrying ostensible satellite payloads and in spring and summer 2014 fired approximately 10 shorter range ballistic missiles.³⁸ North Korea has an arsenal of approximately 700 Soviet-designed short-range ballistic missiles, according to unofficial estimates, although the inaccuracy of these antiquated missiles obviates their military effectiveness.³⁹ A U.S. government report said in 2013 that North Korea has deployed small numbers of medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (unofficial estimate: about 100 and fewer than 30, respectively) that could reach Japan and U.S. bases there, but the intermediate-range missiles have never been flight-tested.⁴⁰ North Korea has made slow progress toward developing a reliable long-range ballistic missile; the December 2012 launch was the first successful space launch after four consecutive failures in 1998, 2006, 2009, and April 2012.

After its first long-range missile test in 1998, North Korea and the United States held several rounds of talks on a moratorium on long-range missile tests in exchange for the Clinton Administration's pledge to lift certain economic sanctions. Although Kim Jong-il made promises to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, negotiators could not conclude a deal. These negotiations were abandoned at the start of the Bush Administration, which placed a higher priority on the North Korean nuclear program. Ballistic missiles were not on the agenda in the Six-Party Talks. In 2006, UNSC Resolution 1718 barred North Korea from conducting missile-related activities. North Korea flouted this resolution with its April 2009 test launch. The UNSC then responded with Resolution 1874, which further increased restrictions on the DPRK ballistic missile program. The 2012 Leap Day Agreement included a moratorium on ballistic missile tests, which North Korea claimed excludes satellite launches.

A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in 1999 predicted that North Korea would successfully test an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) by 2015, but North Korea's inconsistent progress has disproved that assessment.⁴¹ The author of a 2012 RAND technical report on the North Korean nuclear missile threat asserts that the Unha-3 rocket, which successfully lifted an estimated 100 kg satellite payload into orbit in December 2012, is incapable of carrying a nuclear warhead at inter-continental range. "If [North Koreans] wanted an ICBM, they have to develop a new rocket, using different technology. This would take a very long time, require a lot of work, and cost a lot of money."⁴² A net assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies concluded in 2011 that a future North Korean ICBM "would almost certainly have to undergo an extensive flight-test program that includes at least a dozen, if not two dozen, launches and extends over three to five years."⁴³ Such a program would make North Korean intentions obvious to the world. Others, however, argue that North Korea might take a radically different approach and accept one successful test as sufficient for declaring operational capability.

Official reports indicate that North Korea has also been developing a road-mobile ICBM, dubbed the KN-08, although this missile has never been flight-tested.⁴⁴ Analysts examining commercial satellite imagery believe that North Korea has conducted multiple tests of KN-08 rocket engines, but the system—should it function successfully—is likely more than a year away from even an initial deployment.⁴⁵ In a military parade in October 2015, North Korea displayed what appears to be a modified version of the KN-08. An analysis by missile experts outside the U.S. government concluded that the modifications to the missile "will likely delay its entry into service until 2020 or beyond."⁴⁶

The potential ability of North Korea to miniaturize a nuclear warhead and mate it to a ballistic missile, especially an ICBM, is a key concern of the United States. The DNI stated in April 2013, "North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile."⁴⁷ Yet experts at the Institute for Science and International Security assessed in February 2013 that "North Korea likely has the capability to mount a plutonium-based nuclear warhead on the shorter range [800-mile] Nodong missile."⁴⁸ General Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of U.S. Forces Korea, stated in October 2014, "I don't know that [North Korea has a functioning, miniaturized nuclear device].... What I'm saying is, is that I think given their technological capabilities, the time that they been working on this, that they probably have the capabilities to put this together."⁴⁹ And in April 2015, Admiral William Gortney, the commander of U.S. Northern Command, seemingly veered from the official U.S. intelligence community assessment when he said that it was his assessment that North Korea has "the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland."⁵⁰ Until North Korea tests such a device, the outside world will remain uncertain about North Korean nuclear capabilities.

North Korea's proliferation of missile technology and expertise is another serious concern for the United States. Pyongyang has sold missile parts and/or technology to several countries, including Egypt, Iran, Libya, Burma, Pakistan, Syria, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.⁵³ Sales of missiles and telemetric information from missile tests have been a key source of hard currency for the Kim regime.

The United States, Japan, and (to a lesser extent) South Korea have deployed ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems to protect their territory and military forces from the threat of North Korean attacks. During the 2009 and 2012 North Korean long-range missile tests, U.S. and allied forces reportedly made ready and available a number of BMD systems, in addition to the intelligence gathering capabilities sent into the region. Japan deployed Patriot interceptor batteries around Tokyo and on its southwestern islands, in the event of an errant missile or debris headed toward Japanese territory.⁵⁷ Aegis BMD ships deployed to the area as well. In response to the heightened tensions in spring 2013, the U.S. military accelerated deployment of a ground-based Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) BMD system to Guam, two years ahead of schedule.

CRS Report R41438, North Korea: Legislative Basis for U.S. Economic Sanctions, by [author name scrubbed]

CRS Report R44344, North Korea: A Comparison of S. 1747, S. 2144, and H.R. 757, by [author name scrubbed]

CRS Report R41481, U.S.-South Korea Relations, coordinated by [author name scrubbed]

CRS Report R43865, North Korea: Back on the State Sponsors of Terrorism List?, by [author name scrubbed] et al.

CRS Report R42126, Kim Jong-il's Death: Implications for North Korea's Stability and U.S. Policy, by [author name scrubbed]

Author Contact Information

Footnotes

"Joint Vision for the Alliance of the United States of America and the Republic of Korea," the White House, Office of the Press Secretary, June 16, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Joint-vision-for-the-alliance-of-the-United-States-of-America-and-the-Republic-of-Korea.

Daniel Pinkston, "Did the Kim Regime Exaggerate N.Korea's Nuclear Capability?" NK News, January 7, 2016.

John Kerry, "Remarks before the Daily Press Briefing," U.S. Department of State, January 7, 2016.

See "North Korea's Creeping Economic Reforms Show Signs of Paying Off," The Guardian, March 5, 2015; "North Korea Dabbles in Reform," New York Times, January 21, 2015; and "A Quiet Economic Reform is Sweeping North Korea's Capital," Associated Press, March 3, 2015.

Anna Fifield, "North Korea's Growing Economy—and America's Misconceptions About It," Washington Post, March 13, 2015.

Marcus Noland, "The Elusive Charm of the 28 June Reforms," Witness to Transformation blog. January 12, 2016.

"North Korea Executes Minister by Anti-aircraft Fire, Says Seoul," Financial Times, May 13, 2015.

Material for nuclear weapons can be made from reprocessing plutonium or enriching uranium. The uranium enrichment program provided North Korea with a second pathway for creating nuclear bomb material while its plutonium production facilities were frozen.

For more details on problems with implementation and verification, see CRS Report RL33590, North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy, by [author name scrubbed].

For more information on the terrorism list removal, see CRS Report RL30613, North Korea: Back on the Terrorism List?, by [author name scrubbed].

James R. Clapper, "Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community," Director of National Intelligence, January 29, 2014.

See CRS Report R43480, Iran-North Korea-Syria Ballistic Missile and Nuclear Cooperation, coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

The United States maintains that its food aid policy follows three criteria: demonstrated need, severity of need compared to other countries, and satisfactory monitoring systems to ensure food is reaching the most vulnerable. Strong concerns about diversion of aid to the North Korean military and elite exist, although assistance provided in 2008-2009 had operated under an expanded system of monitoring and access negotiated by the Bush Administration. Obama Administration officials were reportedly divided on whether to authorize new humanitarian assistance for North Korea in 2011 and 2012, but ultimately decided to offer 240,000 metric tons of food aid as a confidence-building measure within the Leap Day Agreement. Several Members of Congress have spoken out against the provision of any assistance to Pyongyang because of concerns about supporting the regime.

See, for example, Jonathan D. Pollack, No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security (New York: Routledge, 2011); "North Korea: Beyond the Six-Party Talks," International Crisis Group, Asia Report No. 269, June 16, 2015.

Choe Sang-hun, "North Korea Vows to Keep Nuclear Arms and Fix Economy," New York Times, March 31, 2013.

"DPRK NDC Issues Statement Refuting UNSC Resolution," Korean Central News Agency (North Korea), January 24, 2013.

Andray Abrahamian, "The ABCs of North Korea's SEZs," US-Korea Institute at SAIS, November 19, 2014.

Han-bum Cho, "The Purge of Hyon Yong-chol and Risk Factors of the Kim Jong-un Regime," Korea Institute for National Unification, Seoul, 13 May 2015: 3.

"Over 40% of N.Korean Brass Replaced in Purges," Chosun Ilbo, July 15, 2015.

Maeve Shearlaw, "Purges and Political Manoeuvres: How Volatile Is Kim Jong-un?" The Guardian [London], May 13, 2015.

Marcus Noland, "Pyongyang Tipping Point," Wall Street Journal op-ed, April 12, 2010.

Martyn Williams, "Koryolink Subscriptions Hit 2.4 Million," North Korea Tech blog, September 8, 2014, http://www.northkoreatech.org/2014/09/08/koryolink-subscriptions-hit-2-4-million.

Jieun Baek, "Hack and Frack North Korea: How Information Campaigns Can Liberate the Hermit Kingdom," Harvard University, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, April 2015.

James Clapper, Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, February 16, 2011.

See also CRS Insight IN10428, North Korea's January 6, 2016, Nuclear Test, by [author name scrubbed].

James Clapper, "DNI Statement on North Korea's Nuclear Capability," Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Press Release, April 11, 2013.

David Albright, "North Korean Miniaturization," US-Korea Institute at SAIS, February 22, 2013.

5 MWe is a power rating for the reactor, indicating that it produces 5 million watts of electricity per day (very small). Reactors are also described in terms of million watts of heat (MW thermal).

Statement of Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 16, 2015.

Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, 2010 Defense White Paper, December 2010.

Bennett, Bruce W. "N.K WMDs Carry Catastrophic Potential," The RAND Blog, November 19, 2014.

Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 January to 31 December 2010, http://www.dni.gov/reports/20110208_report_wmd.pdf.

For more information, see CRS Report RS21473, North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, by [author name scrubbed].

Stephen Haggard, Daniel Pinkston, Kevin Stahler, and Clint Work, "Interpreting North Korea's Missile Tests: When Is a Missile Just a Missile?" Witness to Transformation blog, Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 7, 2014, http://blogs.piie.com/nk/?p=13532.

North Korea claims that the purpose of these rocket launches is to place a satellite in orbit, and thus it is entitled to develop space launch vehicles as a peaceful use of space. However, long-range ballistic missiles and space-launch vehicles use similar technology, and, because of this overlap, the UNSC acted to prohibit any North Korean use of rocket technology in Resolutions 1718 and 1874.

North Korean Security Challenges: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2011), pp. 144-146.

National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat, NASIC-1031-0985-13, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH, June 2013, p. 17, and IISS (2011), pp. 131-135, 141-145.

David Wright, "Questions About the Unha-3 Failure," 38 North, May 2012, http://38north.org/2012/05/dwright050412; National Intelligence Council, Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015 (unclassified summary), September 1999, http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Foreign%20Missile%20Developments_1999.pdf.

IISS (2011), p. 155.

NASIC (2013), pp. 20-22. This report refers to the KN-08 by its Korean name Hwasong-13.

Nick Hansen, "North Korea's Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Major Upgrade Program Completed; Facility Operational Again," 38 North blog, U.S.-Korea Institute, October 1, 2014, http://38north.org/2014/10/sohae100114.

John Schilling, Jeffrey Lewis, and David Schmerler, "A New ICBM for North Korea?" 38 North blog, U.S.-Korea Institute, December 22, 2015, http://38north.org/2015/12/icbm122115.

James Clapper, "DNI Statement on North Korea's Nuclear Capability," Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Press Release, April 11, 2013.

David Albright, "North Korean Miniaturization," U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, February 22, 2013, http://38north.org/2013/02/albright021313.

"Commander, U.S. Forces Korea, General Curtis Scaparrotti and Rear Admiral John Kirby, Press Secretary," U.S. Department of Defense, Press Briefing, Washington, DC, October 24, 2014.

Department of Defense Press Briefing by Admiral Gortney, Commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, April 07, 2015.

Catherine Dill, "Video Analysis of DPRK SLBM Footage," Arms Control Wonk blog, January 12, 2016, http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1200759/video-analysis-of-dprk-slbm-footage.

Joseph S. Bermudez, "Underwater Test-Fire of Korean-style Powerful Strategic Submarine Ballistic Missile," 38 North blog, U.S.-Korea Institute, May 13, 2015, http://38north.org/2015/05/jbermudez051315.

Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment—China and Northeast Asia, January 22, 2010 and IISS (2011), pp. 180-181.

For more information, see CRS Report R42849, Iran's Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs, by [author name scrubbed].

Javier Serrat, "North Korea, Iran Highlight Proliferation Risks of Knowledge Transfers," World Politics Review, December 10, 2012, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12554/north-korea-iran-highlight-proliferation-risks-of-knowledge-transfers; John S. Park, "The Leap in North Korea's Ballistic Missile Program: The Iran Factor," National Bureau of Asian Research, December 19, 2012, http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=638.

Peter Enav, "Experts: North Korea Missile Carrier Likely from China," Associated Press, April 19, 2012.

For both 2012 launches, the North Korean rocket trajectory was to have taken it in the upper atmosphere above two small Japanese islands in the Ryukyu island chain.

"朝鲜宣布发射卫星引发世界关注 (The DPRK's Announcement of a Satellite Launch Triggers the World's Attention)," People's Daily Online, webpage, April 2012, http://world.people.com.cn/GB/8212/191606/240872/index.html.

U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People's Republic of Korea 2013, Washington, DC, February 2014, p. 8.

North Korean Security Challenges: A Net Assessment (London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2011), p 47.

The Military Balance 2015 (London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2015), p. 261.

IISS (2011), p. 47.

DOD (2014), p. 12.

IISS (2011), pp. 52-53.

Lee Yong-jong and Sarah Kim, "Cyberwarfare is North's New Priority, Experts Say," Korea JoongAng Daily, November 14, 2013.

IISS (2015), p. 227 and DOD (2014), p. 9.

IISS (2011), p. 54.

Mark Clayton, "In Cyberarms Race, North Korea Emerging As a Power, Not a Pushover," Christian Science Monitor, October 19, 2013.

David Sanger and Martin Fackler, "N.S.A. Breached North Korean Networks Before Sony Attack, Officials Say," New York Times, January 18, 2015.

John Kerry, "Remarks at Event on Human Rights in the D.P.R.K.," U.S. Department of State, remarks as prepared for delivery at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, New York, NY, September 23, 2014.

See U.S. Department of State, 2014 Country Report on Human Rights Practices: Democratic People's Republic of Korea available at http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm#wrapper.

David Hawk, "North Korea's Hidden Gulag: Interpreting Reports of Changes in the Prison Camps," Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, Washington, DC, August 27, 2013.

Ibid., pp. 33-37.

United States Department of State, Trafficking in Persons Report 2013—Korea, Democratic People's Republic of, June 19, 2013, available at http://www.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2013.

Republic of Korea Ministry of Unification, Major Statistics in Inter-Korean Relations, accessed July 14, 2015, http://eng.unikorea.go.kr/content.do?cmsid=1822.

Report of the Detailed Findings of the Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, November 2014, http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/CoIDPRK/Pages/Documents.aspx.

"N. Korean Refugees Caught in China," The Japan Times. November 18, 2013.

Gabriel Auteri, "Legal Roadblocks Hinder North Korean Migrants' Efforts to Escape Oppressive Conditions," Human Rights Brief, March 7, 2013.

George W. Bush Institute, "Infographic: North Korea's Refugees," Freedom Square, July 30, 2014.

Roberta Cohen, "China's Forced Repatriation of North Korean Refugees Incurs United Nations Censure," International Journal of Korean Studies, Summer/Fall 2014.

Sokeel J. Park, "Divided Over North Korean Refugees," ISN, March 1, 2012.

Roberta Cohen, "China's Forced Repatriation of North Korean Refugees Incurs United Nations Censure," International Journal of Korean Studies, Summer/Fall 2014.

U.S. State Department, Refugee Processing Center, http://www.wrapsnet.org/Reports/AdmissionsArrivals.

Broadcast content includes news briefs, particularly news about the Korean Peninsula; interviews with North Korean defectors; and international commentary on events occurring in North Korea. The BBG cites a Peterson Institute for International Economics survey in which North Korean defectors interviewed in China and South Korea indicated that they had listened to foreign media including RFA. RFA broadcasts five hours a day. VOA broadcasts five hours a day with three of those hours in prime-time from a medium-wave transmitter in South Korea aimed at North Korea. VOA also broadcasts from stations in Thailand; the Philippines; and from leased stations in Russia and eastern Mongolia. In January 2009, the BBG began broadcasting to North Korea from a leased medium-wave facility in South Korea. The BBG added leased transmission capability to bolster medium-wave service into North Korea in January 2010. RFA broadcasts from stations in Tinian (Northern Marianas) and Saipan, and leased stations in Russia and Mongolia.

Broadcasting Board of Governors FY2013 Budget Request, http://www.bbg.gov/wp-content/media/2012/02/FY-2013-BBG-Congressional-Budget-Request-FINAL-2-9-12-Small.pdf.

Chang-Hoon Shin and Myong-Hyun Go, Beyond the UN COI Report on Human Rights in North Korea, November 2014.

Shin and Go, Beyond the UN COI Report on Human Rights in North Korea, November 2014.

"150,000 N.Koreans Sent to Slave Labor Abroad," Chosun Ilbo, November 13, 2014.

"ILO Calls on Mongolia to Protect North Korean Workers," The Korea Times, June 10, 2015.

Shin and Go, Beyond the UN COI Report on Human Rights in North Korea, November 2014.

Hyo-jin Kim, "A Qatar Construction Company Fires 90 North Korean Workers," The Korea Times [Seoul], May 7, 2015, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/05/116_178523.html.

Andrei Lankov, "North Korean Workers Abroad Aren't Slaves," NK News, November 27, 2014.

Shin and Go, Beyond the UN COI Report on Human Rights in North Korea, November 2014.

"150,000 N.Koreans Sent to Slave Labor Abroad," Chosun Ilbo, November 13, 2014.

Stephanie Nebehay, "U.N. Expert to Probe Conditions of North Korean Workers Abroad," Reuters, 16 March 2015.

Ibid.

For more information, see CRS Report RL33885, North Korean Crime-for-Profit Activities, by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].

"Defectors Detail How North Korea's Office 39 Feeds Leader's Slush Fund," Wall Street Journal Online, September 15, 2014.

Sari Horwitz, "5 Extradited in Plot to Import North Korean Meth to U.S.," Washington Post, November 20, 2013.

Marcus Noland, "North Korea Illicit Activities," North Korea: Witness to Transformation blog, Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 11, 2013, http://www.piie.com/blogs/nk/?p=9650.

Con Coughlin, "Hamas and North Korea in Secret Arms Deal," Telegraph, July 26, 2014. North Korea is renowned for its expertise in sophisticated tunneling projects.

Emily Rauhala, "North Korea Denies Selling Missiles to Hamas," time.com, July 29, 2014.

Andrea Berger, "North Korea, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Arm in Arm?," 38North blog, U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, August 5, 2014, http://38north.org/2014/08/aberger080514.

For more, see CRS Report R40095, Foreign Assistance to North Korea, by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].

C. Kenneth Quinones, "The US-DPRK 1994 Agreed Framework and the US Army's Return to North Korea," in Rudiger Frank, James Hoare, et al., editors, Korea Yearbook Volume 2: Politics, Economy and Society (Leiden: Koninklijke Brill NV, 2008).

Separately, from 1990 to 1994, North Korea unilaterally handed over 208 boxes of remains, some of them commingled. U.S. specialists have identified 104 soldiers from those remains so far.

"U.S. Halts Search for Its War Dead in North Korea," New York Times, May 26, 2005.

April 2005 email correspondence between CRS and with DPMO.

Jim Garamone, "U.S. Suspends MIA Search in North Korea," American Forces Press Service, March 21, 2012. http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=67639.

Choe Sang-hun, "North Korea Says G.I.s' Remains May Vanish," New York Times, October 13, 2014.

"US NGO Aid to NK Increases Fourfold," Daily NK, August 7, 2014.