The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment and Characteristics of Workers Unemployed for Two Years or More

September 12, 2011 – March 24, 2014 R41559

This report discusses trends in long term unemployment and characteristics such as gender, age, education, marital status of the very long-term for the unemployed.

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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
and Characteristics of Workers Unemployed
for Two Years or More
Gerald Mayer
Analyst in Labor Policy
March 24, 2014
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
R41559

The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Summary
One of the characteristics of the recession that officially began in the United States in December
2007 and ended in June 2009 was the unprecedented rise in long-term unemployment. The long-
term unemployed are often defined as workers who have been unemployed for more than six
months. But, many unemployed workers have been looking for work for more than a year or for
two years or more.
As the national unemployment rate increased during and after the 2007-2009 recession, so did the
unemployment rate for workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. In April 2010, the
unemployment rate for workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks reached 4.5%, which was
the highest rate recorded since BLS began collecting data on long-term unemployment in 1948.
As the national unemployment rate has fallen, so has the unemployment rate for persons
unemployed for more than 26 weeks. From April 2010 to December 2013, the unemployment rate
for persons looking for work for more than six months fell from 4.5% to 2.5%. During the months
leading up to the 2007-2009 recession, the unemployment rate for persons unemployed for more
than six months was less than 1.0%.
In January 2011, the unemployment rate for workers who had been unemployed for more than a
year reached 2.3%. By December 2013, the rate had fallen to 1.4%. The unemployment rate for
workers unemployed for two years or more peaked in September 2011, at 1.3%. By December
2013, the rate had fallen to 0.8%. For both groups of long-term unemployed, the unemployment
rate in December 2013 was higher than immediately before the 2007-2009 recession.
An analysis of differences in the share of the unemployed who have been unemployed for two or
more years shows that in 2013:
• unemployed men were more likely than unemployed women to be out of work
for two years or more (12.8% compared to 11.9%);
• older workers were more likely than younger workers to be unemployed for two
years or more. While 8.2% of unemployed workers under the age of 35 had been
looking for work for two years or more, more than twice that percentage (18.2%)
of workers ages 45 and over had been out of work for two years or more.
• the percentage of unemployed workers with a high school degree who have been
out of work for two years or more (12.8%) was not statistically different from the
percentage of unemployed workers with a bachelor’s degree who have been out
of work for two years or more (13.5%);
• married unemployed workers were more likely than unemployed workers who
have never been married to be out of work for two years or more (12.9% and
10.9%, respectively); and
• unemployed black workers were more likely than unemployed white workers to
have been unemployed for two years or more (14.2% and 11.8%, respectively);
on the other hand, unemployed non-Hispanic workers were more likely than
unemployed Hispanic workers to have been unemployed for two years or more
(12.9% and 10.3%, respectively). Among workers unemployed for two years or
more, white workers were older than black workers and non-Hispanic workers
were older than Hispanic workers.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Long-term unemployment rates and the number of long-term unemployed have fallen since
peaking after the official end of the 2007-2009 recession. Monthly layoffs and discharges have
fallen below their pre-recession levels. The number of jobs has increased since the end of the
recession. But, the number of job openings is still below the monthly levels before the recession.
The increase in the number of jobs and drop in the number of layoffs and discharges since the end
of the recession may contribute to a reduction in the number of long-term unemployed. On the
other hand, the slower growth in job openings may slow the hiring of the long-term unemployed.
After a recession, as employers hire new workers, those who have been unemployed the longest
may be among the last to be hired.
An issue for Congress is whether to reauthorize the Emergency Unemployment Compensation
(EUC08) program, which expired at the end of 2013. Another issue may be whether to enact
policies that could increase the demand for workers and, therefore, reduce the number of long-
term unemployed. Other issues may include whether to adopt policies that may provide greater
incentives for employers to hire the long-term employed, create incentives for the long-term
unemployed to accept new employment, or ensure that the long-term unemployed have the skills
that employers need.

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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Contents
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1
Overview of Data and Methodology ......................................................................................... 1
The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment ........................................................................................ 2
Reliability of Estimates of the Long-Term Unemployed........................................................... 5
Will the Number of the Very Long-Term Unemployed Rise or Fall?........................................ 6
The Number of Jobs ............................................................................................................ 6
The Number of Unemployed ............................................................................................... 7
The Number of Layoffs and Discharges and the Number of Job Openings ........................ 8
Characteristics of the Very Long-Term Unemployed ...................................................................... 9
Gender ....................................................................................................................................... 9
Age .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Education ................................................................................................................................. 10
Marital Status ........................................................................................................................... 10
Race and Hispanic Origin ........................................................................................................ 11
Citizenship ............................................................................................................................... 11
Industry .................................................................................................................................... 12
Occupation ............................................................................................................................... 12

Figures
Figure 1. Unemployment Rates: Total Unemployed and Workers Unemployed for More
than 26 Weeks, January 2007 to December 2013 ......................................................................... 3
Figure 2. Unemployment Rates: Unemployed for More than 52 or 78 Weeks or for Two
Years or More, January 2007 to December 2013 ......................................................................... 4
Figure 3. Monthly Average Number of Unemployed Workers: Total and by
Duration of Unemployment, 2013 ................................................................................................ 6
Figure 4. The Total Number of Unemployed and the Number of Workers Unemployed for
More than 26 Weeks, January 2007 to December 2013 ............................................................... 7
Figure 5. The Number of Workers Unemployed for More than 52 or 78 Weeks or for Two
Years or More, January 2007 to December 2013 ......................................................................... 8
Figure 6. The Monthly Number of Layoffs and Discharges and the Monthly Number of
Job Openings, January 2007 to December 2013........................................................................... 9

Tables
Table A-1. Labor Force Characteristics of Persons 16 and Over, Comparison of Calendar
Years 2007 and 2013 ................................................................................................................... 15
Table A-2. Number of Workers Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment, Averages of
Monthly Data, 2013 .................................................................................................................... 15
Table A-3. Characteristics of the Unemployed, Averages of Monthly Data, 2013 ........................ 16

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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Appendixes
Appendix. Data and Methodology ................................................................................................. 13

Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 23

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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Introduction
One of the characteristics of the recession that officially began in December 2007 and ended in
June 2009 was the rise in long-term unemployment.1 The long-term unemployed are often
defined as workers who have been looking for work for more than six months. But many workers
have been looking for work for longer periods. The first part of this report examines the trend in
long-term unemployment using four measures of the long-term unemployed: persons who have
been looking for work for more than 26 weeks, more than 52 weeks, more than 78 weeks, and for
two years or more. In this report, workers who have been unemployed for two or more years are
defined as the “very long-term unemployed.”
Because unemployment during the 2007-2009 recession and its aftermath increased more among
some groups of workers than others, the second part of the report analyzes selected characteristics
of the very long-term unemployed.2
High long-term unemployment rates raise several issues for Congress. One issue is whether to
reauthorize the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08) program.3 Other issues
include whether to enact policies (1) to increase the demand for workers to reduce the number of
long-term unemployed, (2) to provide greater incentives for employers to hire the long-term
employed, (3) to create additional incentives for the long-term unemployed to accept new
employment, (4) to ensure that the long-term unemployed have the skills that employers need,
and/or (5) to improve the match between the skills of the long-term unemployed and the jobs that
are available.4 This report does not address these issues.
Overview of Data and Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS),
which is a household survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The monthly CPS is the source of the national
monthly unemployment rate and other labor market information.

1 The 2007-2009 recession was one of the deepest and the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates the beginning and end of recessions. National Bureau of
Economic Research, U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, available at http://www.nber.org/cycles/
cyclesmain.html. For a comparison of long-term unemployment rates during recent recessions, see CRS Report
R41179, Long-Term Unemployment and Recessions, by Gerald Mayer and Linda Levine.
2 Table A-1 in the Appendix shows changes in unemployment rates from 2007 to 2013 for persons ages 16 and over in
selected demographic groups.
3 CRS Report R41508, Expiring Unemployment Insurance Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs. For a discussion of
unemployment insurance legislation introduced in the 113th Congress, see CRS Report R42936, Unemployment
Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress, by Julie M. Whittaker and Katelin P. Isaacs.
4 A 2012 report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) analyzed how many workers who lost jobs during the
2007-2009 recession received and exhausted UC benefits, the economic circumstances of those who exhausted UC
benefits, and the extent to which state unemployment insurance agencies referred those who exhausted UC benefits to
income support programs. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Unemployment Insurance: Economic
Circumstances of Individuals Who Exhausted Benefits, GAO-12-408, February 2012, available at http://www.gao.gov/
assets/590/588680.pdf.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

In the CPS, persons are classified as unemployed if they are not working, they actively looked for
work in the four weeks before the survey, and they are available for work. The CPS asks
unemployed persons how long they have been looking for work.
The first part of the report examines the trend in long-term unemployment, by month, over the
period from January 2007 through December 2013. The long-term unemployment rate is the
number of long-term unemployed divided by the size of the labor force, where the labor force is
the sum of persons who are employed or unemployed.
In this report, the very long-term unemployed are defined as workers who have been unemployed
for two years or more. This range is used because, before January 2011, persons who reported
that they had been unemployed for more than two years were recorded as having been
unemployed for two years; their responses were top coded at two years. Starting in January 2011,
the CPS allows respondents to report durations of unemployment of up to five years.5
An analysis of individual characteristics may rely on small sample sizes. Therefore, the second
part of the report, which examines selected characteristics of the very long-term unemployed,
uses monthly average data for calendar year 2013.
The CPS does not collect information on the number of unemployed workers who have exhausted
all available UC benefits. Workers who are counted as unemployed in the CPS may or may not be
receiving UC benefits. Conversely, persons who are receiving UC benefits may or may not be
counted as unemployed in the CPS. In the CPS, persons are counted as unemployed if they do not
have a job, they actively looked for work in the four weeks before they were interviewed, and
they are currently available for work.6 Persons receiving UC benefits may not meet the CPS
definition of who is unemployed; for example, they may not be looking for work because they are
in an approved education or training program. Also, persons receiving UC benefits could fit the
CPS definition of someone who is employed; for example, they could be in a work-sharing
program.7
The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
The first part of this report compares the national unemployment rate to the long-term
unemployment rates for workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks, more than
52 weeks, more than 78 weeks, and two years or more. The four groups of the long-term

5 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Changes to Data Collected on Unemployment Duration,
available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/duration.htm. Before January 2011, the CPS could report a person as being
unemployed for more than two years. In the CPS survey, a household is in the survey for four consecutive months, out
of the survey for the next eight months, and then back in the survey for the next four months. The duration of
unemployment for individuals in the survey for consecutive months is calculated automatically by adding to the
number of weeks unemployed since the previous month. Thus, before January 2011, an individual who was initially
coded as being unemployed for two years could have been reported as being unemployed for more than two years.
6 Persons who are not working and are waiting to be called back to a job from which they have been laid off are also
counted as unemployed. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current
Population Survey, available at http://stats.bls.gov/cps. (Hereafter cited as BLS, Labor Force Statistics from the
Current Population Survey.) The Appendix provides more detail on the data and methodology used in this report.
7 Under a work sharing plan, also called a short-term compensation program, an employee whose work hours are
reduced may receive partial UC benefits. See CRS Report R40689, Compensated Work Sharing Arrangements (Short-
Time Compensation) as an Alternative to Layoffs, by Julie M. Whittaker.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been unemployed for two years or
more are in the group of unemployed workers who have been looking for work for more than 78
weeks. Workers unemployed for more than 78 weeks are in the group of workers who have been
unemployed for more than 52 weeks, and so on.
Figure 1 shows the national unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for workers
unemployed for more than 26 weeks.8 As the national unemployment rate increased during and
after the 2007-2009 recession, so did the unemployment rate for workers unemployed for more
than 26 weeks. In Figure 1, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for workers unemployed
for more than 26 weeks reached 4.5% in April 2010, which was the highest rate recorded since
BLS began collecting data on long-term unemployment in 1948.9
Figure 1. Unemployment Rates: Total Unemployed and Workers Unemployed for
More than 26 Weeks, January 2007 to December 2013
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
07
8
09
0
2
13
20
20
2011
2013
y
y
y
20
ly
c.
Jan. 2007Jul
Jan. 200July 2008Jan. 2009Jul
Jan. 201July 2010Jan. 2011Jul
Jan. 201July 2012Jan. 2013Ju
De
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Total unemployed
Unemployed more than 26 weeks

Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are seasonally adjusted.

8 For consistency in the data series shown in Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, and Figure 4, the data were seasonally
adjusted by CRS.
9 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey,
Tables A-1 and A-12, available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsatabs.htm.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

The seasonally adjusted national unemployment rate in Figure 1 peaked at 10.0% in February
2010, several months after the official end of the 2007-2009 recession.10 As the national
unemployment rate has fallen, so has the unemployment rate for persons unemployed for more
than 26 weeks. From April 2010 to December 2013, the unemployment rate for persons looking
for work for more than six months fell from 4.5% to 2.5%. The rate in December 2013 was
higher than the pre-recession rate, however. During the months leading up to the 2007-2009
recession, the unemployment rate for persons unemployed for more than six months was less than
1.0%.
Figure 2 shows the unemployment rates for workers unemployed for more than 52 weeks, more
than 78 weeks, and for two years or more. Like the rate for workers unemployed for more than 26
weeks, as the national unemployment rate increased so did the unemployment rates for these
groups of the long-term unemployed.
Figure 2. Unemployment Rates: Unemployed for More than 52 or 78 Weeks or for
Two Years or More, January 2007 to December 2013
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
07
09
0
2
13
20
20
2011
2013
y
y
y
20
ly
c.
Jan. 2007Jul
Jan. 2008July 2008Jan. 2009Jul
Jan. 201July 2010Jan. 2011Jul
Jan. 201July 2012Jan. 2013Ju
De
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Unemployed more than 52 weeks
Unemployed more than 78 weeks
Unemployed two years or more

Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are seasonally adjusted.
Note: The groups of the long-term unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been
unemployed for two years or more have been unemployed for more than 78 weeks, and so on.

10 According to BLS published data, the seasonally adjusted national unemployment rate peaked at 10.0% in October
2009. (Ibid., Table A-1.) The reason for the difference between the seasonally adjusted data in this report and the
seasonally adjusted data published by BLS is that the seasonally adjusted data in this report are based on nonseasonally
adjusted data for January 2007 to December 2013. See the discussion of “Seasonal Adjustments” in the Appendix.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

In January 2011, the unemployment rate for workers who were unemployed for more than a year
reached 2.3%. By December 2013, the rate had fallen to 1.4%.
The unemployment rate for workers unemployed for more than a year and a half peaked at 1.4%
in September 2011. In December 2013, the rate was at 0.9%.
The unemployment rate for workers unemployed for two years or more also peaked in September
2011, at 1.3%. By December 2013, the rate had fallen to 0.8%.
As with the unemployment rate for workers unemployed for more than six months, each of the
unemployment rates shown in Figure 2 was higher at the end of 2013 than during the months
immediately preceding the 2007-2009 recession.
Reliability of Estimates of the Long-Term Unemployed
Figure 3 shows the monthly average number of unemployed workers in calendar year 2013 for
each of the unemployment rates shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2. In 2013, the monthly average
number of unemployed was 11.5 million persons. An estimated 1.5 million persons were
unemployed for more than a year and a half, while almost 1.4 million were unemployed for two
years or more. This does not necessarily mean, however, that most workers who report that they
have been unemployed for more than a year and a half will still be unemployed six months later.
In the CPS, many respondents round off the number of weeks that they have been unemployed.
Thus, the estimates of the duration of unemployment from the CPS may not be precise. For
example, many workers who report that they have been unemployed for a year may actually have
been unemployed for more than a year or less than a year. In 2013, an estimated 631,000
unemployed workers said that they had been out of work for a year. But, only14,000 were
recorded as having been unemployed for 51 weeks and only 13,000 were recorded as being out of
work for 53 weeks. (See Table A-2 in the Appendix.) Similarly, many respondents who report
that they have been unemployed for more than a year and a half or for two years or more may
actually have been unemployed for a longer or shorter period.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Figure 3. Monthly Average Number of Unemployed Workers:
Total and by Duration of Unemployment, 2013
(numbers are in 1,000s)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Total
Over 26 weeks
Over 52 weeks
Over 78 weeks
Two years or more

Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Note: The groups of the long-term unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been
unemployed for two years or more have been unemployed for more than 78 weeks, and so on.
Will the Number of the Very Long-Term Unemployed Rise or Fall?
Both the total number of unemployed and the number of long-term unemployed have fallen since
peaking after the official end of the 2007-2009 recession. Monthly layoffs and discharges have
fallen below their pre-recession levels. The number of jobs has increased since the end of the
recession. But, the number of job openings is still below the monthly levels before the recession.
The increase in the number of jobs and drop in the number of layoffs and discharges since the end
of the 2007-2009 recession may contribute to a reduction in the number of long-term
unemployed. On the other hand, the slower growth in job openings may slow the hiring of the
long-term unemployed.
The Number of Jobs
In December 2013, there were an estimated 1.2 million fewer jobs in the United States than in
December 2007, at the start of the 2007-2009 recession. From December 2007 to February 2010,
the number of jobs fell by an estimated 8.7 million (from 138.0 million to 129.3 million,
seasonally adjusted). Nevertheless, by December 2013, the number of jobs had increased to 136.9
million (seasonally adjusted preliminary estimate), for an increase of 7.6 million jobs since
February 2010.11

11 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current
Employment Statistics Survey, available at http://www.bls.gov/ces/.
(continued...)
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

The Number of Unemployed
Figure 4 shows that the total number of unemployed workers peaked at 15.4 million in February
2010, eight months after the end of the 2007-2009 recession. By December 2013, the number of
persons classified as unemployed had fallen to 10.4 million. The total number of long-term
unemployed has also fallen. From April 2010 to December 2013, the number of workers
unemployed for more than six months fell from 7.0 million to 3.9 million. In both cases, however,
the number of persons unemployed at the end of 2013 was higher than during the months
immediately before the 2007-2009 recession.
The number of workers unemployed for more than a year peaked later than the number of
workers unemployed for more than six months. Figure 5 shows that the number of persons
unemployed for more than a year peaked at 3.6 million in January 2011. By December 2013, the
number had fallen to 2.1 million persons. From September 2011 to December 2013, the number
of persons unemployed for more than a year and a half fell from 2.2 million to 1.4 million. The
number of persons unemployed for two years or more fell from 2.0 to 1.3 million from August
2011 to December 2013. (See Figure 5.)
Figure 4. The Total Number of Unemployed and the Number of Workers
Unemployed for More than 26 Weeks, January 2007 to December 2013
(numbers are in 1,000s)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
07
09
0
2
13
20
20
2011
2013
y
y
y
20
ly
c.
Jan. 2007Jul
Jan. 2008July 2008Jan. 2009Jul
Jan. 201July 2010Jan. 2011Jul
Jan. 201July 2012Jan. 2013Ju
De
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Total unemployed
Unemployed more than 26 weeks

Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are seasonally adjusted.

(...continued)
For an analysis of job growth since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, see CRS Report R41434, Job Growth During
the Recovery, by Craig K. Elwell.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Figure 5. The Number of Workers Unemployed for More than 52 or 78 Weeks or
for Two Years or More, January 2007 to December 2013
(numbers are in 1,000s)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
07
09
0
2
13
20
20
2011
2013
y
y
y
20
ly
c.
Jan. 2007Jul
Jan. 2008July 2008Jan. 2009Jul
Jan. 201July 2010Jan. 2011Jul
Jan. 201July 2012Jan. 2013Ju
De
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Unemployed more than 52 weeks
Unemployed more than 78 weeks
Unemployed two years or more

Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are seasonally adjusted.
Note: The groups of the long-term unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been
unemployed for two years or more have been unemployed for more than 78 weeks.
The Number of Layoffs and Discharges and the Number of Job Openings
The number of layoffs and discharges have fallen below their pre-recession levels. During the 11
months leading up to the 2007-2009 recession (January through November 2007), there was an
average of 1.9 million layoffs and discharges per month. During calendar year 2013, there was an
average of 1.6 million layoffs and discharges per month.
However, the number of job openings has not returned to the level before the recession. During
the 11 months leading up to the 2007-2009 recession, there were an average of 9.7 million job
openings per month. (Job openings are defined here as the number of hires per month plus the
number of unfilled job openings on the last business day of the month.) During calendar year
2013, there were an average 8.3 million job openings per month. See Figure 6.

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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Figure 6. The Monthly Number of Layoffs and Discharges and the Monthly Number
of Job Openings, January 2007 to December 2013
(numbers are in 1,000s)
3,000
12,000
2,500
10,000
ges
2,000
8,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
4,000
Job openings
Layoffs and dischar
500
2,000
0
0
07
10
12
3
13
20
2009
2010
20
n. 2007ly
n. 2008ly 2008n. 2009
n. 20 ly
n. 2011ly 2011
ly
n. 201 ly 2013
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Ja
July Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Jan. 2012
Ju
Ja
Ju Dec. 20
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Job openings
Number of layoffs and discharges

Source: Data are from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Data are seasonally
adjusted.
Notes: The number of job openings is the sum of the monthly number of hires and the number of unfilled
job openings on the last business day of the month.
Characteristics of the Very Long-Term Unemployed
This part of the report analyzes selected characteristics of the very long-term unemployed, who
are unemployed workers who have been looking for work for two years or more. The analysis is
based on monthly average data for calendar year 2013. The data underlying the analysis in this
section are provided in Table A-3 in the Appendix.
Gender
In 2013, unemployed workers were more likely to be male than female. Men were also more
likely than women to have been out of work for two years or more.
In 2013, an estimated 53.0% of persons with jobs were men. But, men accounted for 55.1% of
unemployed workers. Men also accounted for a disproportionate share (56.9%) of workers who
had been unemployed for two years or more. 12

12 Unless otherwise noted, the percentage comparisons in this part of the report are significant at the 90% confidence
(continued...)
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

An estimated 12.4% of unemployed workers had been looking for work for two years or more in
2013. Men were slightly more likely than women (12.8% compared to 11.9%) to have been out of
work for two years or more.
Age
In 2013, unemployed workers were more likely to be younger than older, but older workers were
more likely than younger workers to have been out of work for two years or more.
Although an estimated 34.2% of persons with jobs were under the age of 35 in 2013,
approximately half (50.8%) of unemployed workers were under the age of 35. On the other hand,
among workers who had been unemployed for two years or more, 33.7% were under the age of
35, while almost half (47.6%) were ages 45 and over.
Among unemployed workers under the age of 35, 8.2% had been unemployed for two years or
more. Among unemployed workers ages 45 and over, more than twice that percentage, 18.2%,
had been looking for work for two years or more.
Education
In 2013, a majority of unemployed workers had a high school education or less. But, unemployed
workers with a high school degree only or with a bachelor’s degree or better were equally likely
to have been looking for work for two years or more.
Among persons who had jobs in 2013, 35.8% had a high school education or less. However,
among unemployed workers, 54.0% had a high school education or less.
Among unemployed workers, those with a bachelor’s degree (13.5%) were more likely than those
with some college (11.9%) or those with less than a high school education (11.4%) to have been
looking for work for two years or more. However, the percentage of unemployed workers with a
high school education only (12.8%) who had been looking for work for two or more years was
not statistically different from the percentage of unemployed workers with a bachelor’s degree
(13.5%) or the percentage with an advanced or professional degree (13.9%) who had been
looking for work for two years or longer.
Marital Status
In 2013, a disproportionate share of unemployed workers had never been married. But, among
unemployed workers, married workers were more likely than workers who had never been
married to have been unemployed for two years or more.
In 2013, persons who had never been married accounted for 29.5% of employed workers, but
50.5% of workers who were unemployed.

(...continued)
level or better. See the discussion of confidence intervals in the Appendix.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Among unemployed workers, married workers were more likely than workers who had never
been married to have been out of work for two years or more (12.9% compared to 10.9%).
Similarly, unemployed workers who were widowed, divorced, or separated were more likely than
workers who had never been married to have been out of work for two or more years (16.2%
compared to 10.9%).
Race and Hispanic Origin
In 2013, a disproportionate share of unemployed workers were either black or Hispanic (i.e., their
shares of the unemployed were greater than their shares of the employed). Black workers were
also more likely than white workers to have been unemployed for two years or more. On the other
hand, Hispanic workers were less likely than non-Hispanic workers to have been out of work for
two years or longer.
In 2013, while black workers accounted for 11.2% of persons with jobs, they made up 21.2% of
unemployed workers. Likewise, while Hispanic workers made up 15.6% of persons with jobs,
they accounted for 19.7% of unemployed workers.
Among unemployed workers, a larger percentage of black than white workers had been
unemployed for two years or more (14.2% compared to 11.8%). On the other hand, non-Hispanic
workers were more likely than Hispanic workers to have been looking for work for two years or
longer (12.9% compared to 10.3%).
Among workers unemployed for two years or more, white workers were older than black workers
and non-Hispanic workers were older than Hispanic workers. Among white workers unemployed
for two years or more, 53.0% were ages 45 and over, compared to 34.0% of black workers.
Among non-Hispanic workers unemployed for two years or more, 48.6% were ages 45 and over,
compared to 42.9% of Hispanic workers. (These numbers are not shown in Table A-3.)
Citizenship
In 2013, foreign-born non-U.S. citizens were just as likely as native-born citizens to be
unemployed. But, U.S. citizens were more likely than noncitizens to have been looking for work
for two years or more.13
While native-born U.S. citizens made up 83.6% of all employed persons in 2013, they accounted
for 84.8% of unemployed workers. Similarly, while foreign-born non-U.S. citizens made up 8.6%
of employed workers, they accounted for 9.0% of unemployed workers. On the other hand, 7.8%
of employed persons were foreign-born, naturalized U.S. citizens, but they were only 6.3% of
unemployed workers.
Compared to noncitizens, U.S. citizens were more likely to have been out of work for two or
more years. While 12.1% of unemployed native-born citizens and 18.9% of unemployed

13 The CPS asks respondents if they are citizens of the United States. The survey also asks citizens if they were born a
U.S. citizen or if they are naturalized citizens. The CPS does not ask noncitizens if they are legal immigrants,
nonimmigrants who are in the United States temporarily (e.g., guest workers), or whether they are in the United States
without authorization. Therefore, in this report, the definition of noncitizens includes legal immigrants, legal
nonimmigrants, and persons in the country without authorization.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

naturalized citizens had been looking for work for at least two years, 11.1% of unemployed
noncitizens had been looking for work for two years or more.
Industry
In 2013, a disproportionate share of unemployed workers had been employed in four industries:
leisure and hospitality; construction; professional and business services; and wholesale and retail
trade. But, none of the workers who had been employed in these industries were more likely than
other workers to have been out of work for two years or more.
In 2013, 9.4% of persons with jobs worked in the leisure and hospitality industries, but 14.5% of
unemployed workers had worked in these industries. While 12.6% of all unemployed workers
had been out of work for two or more years, persons who had been employed in the leisure and
hospitality industries were less likely, 10.3%, than other workers to have been looking for work
for two years or more.14
Although they were not overrepresented among unemployed workers in 2013, unemployed
workers who had worked in two industries—financial activities and manufacturing—were
overrepresented among the very long-term unemployed. An estimated 15.8% of unemployed
workers who had worked in financial activities had been out of work for two years or more.
Similarly, approximately 15.1% of workers who had been employed in manufacturing had been
looking for work for two years or longer.
Occupation
In 2013, workers in six broad occupational categories were overrepresented among the
unemployed. Among these six occupations, only workers who had been employed in “office and
administrative support” occupations were overrepresented among workers who had been
unemployed for two years or more.
Workers in the following occupations were overrepresented among the unemployed in 2013:
services; construction and extraction; transportation and material moving; production; sales and
related; and office and administrative support. Although an estimated 12.6% of all unemployed
workers had been out of work for two or more years, approximately 15.1% of unemployed
workers who had worked in office and administrative support occupations had been looking for
work for two years or more. Among unemployed workers who had worked in service
occupations, 11.4% had been looking for work for two or more years, which is less than the
average of 12.6% for all unemployed workers.

14 In 2013, 12.6% of unemployed workers had been out of work for two or more years. Among unemployed workers
who had been employed in the wholesale and retail trades, 13.5% had been looking for work for two years or more.
The difference is not statistically significant.
Congressional Research Service
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Appendix. Data and Methodology
This appendix provides a more detailed description of data and methodology used in this report.
Data
The analysis in this report is based on data from the monthly Current Employment Statistics
(CES) Survey and the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS).
The CES is a survey of nonfarm establishments conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS). The sample includes approximately 160,000 businesses and government agencies. The
survey does not include self-employed persons, agricultural workers, private household workers,
unpaid family workers, or persons on active military duty. 15
The CPS is a household survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The CPS interviews approximately
55,500 households each month.16 The sample for the monthly CPS is representative of the civilian
noninstitutional population of the United States. The sample does not include persons living in
institutions (such as psychiatric hospitals, nursing homes, or correctional facilities) or persons on
active military duty.17
In the CPS, persons are counted as employed if they did any work for pay during the survey
week, if they did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a family-run business, or if they were
temporarily absent from their regular job because of illness, vacation, bad weather, industrial
dispute, or various personal reasons. Persons are counted as unemployed if they did not have a
job, actively looked for work in the four weeks before the survey, and are currently available for
work. Persons who are not working and are waiting to be called back to a job from which they
have been temporarily laid off are also counted as unemployed.18
In the CPS, “duration of unemployment” is the number of weeks that a person who is classified as
unemployed has been looking for work. For someone on layoff, duration of unemployment is the
number of weeks since the person was laid off. A period of two weeks or more during which a
person is employed or stopped looking for work is considered a break in the continuous period of
unemployment.19
The data that are available to public users of the CPS may not be the same as the data available to
BLS. In order to protect the confidentiality of persons in the survey, the Census Bureau modifies

15 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, vol. 58, February 2011, available
at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ee/empearn201102.pdf, p. 197.
16 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, February 2006, p. 192, available at
http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf.
17 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), available at http://www.census.gov/cps/.
18 BLS, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey.
19 U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2013 Annual Social and Economic
(ASEC) Supplement, available at http://www.census.gov/prod/techdoc/cps/cpsmar13.pdf, p. 9-1.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

(or “masks”) the age variable in the data available to public users.20 As a result, some estimates
produced by public users of the CPS may not match estimates published by BLS.
In this report, estimates of the employed include both wage and salary workers and self-employed
persons who work in unincorporated businesses.
As noted in the introduction, during and after the 2007- 2009 recession, unemployment increased
more among some groups of workers than others. Table A-1 shows that, from 2007 to 2013, the
unemployment rate increased by 2.9 percentage points among men, but by 2.6 points among
women. The unemployment rate increased by 5.0 points among young workers (ages 16 to 24),
but by 2.6 points among workers ages 25 to 54. Among black workers, the unemployment rate
increased more than among white workers (4.8 versus 2.4 points). Unemployment increased by
3.5 points among Hispanic workers, but by 2.6 points among non-Hispanic workers.
Table A-2 illustrates how respondents in the CPS may round off the number of weeks that they
are unemployed. Until January 2011, BLS capped the duration of unemployment at two years.
Beginning in January 2011, respondents can report up to five years of unemployment.
Table A-3 provides the data discussed in the second part of the report on the “Characteristics of
the Very Long-Term Unemployed.”

20 U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Analysis of Perturbed and Unperturbed Age Estimates: 2008,
available at http://www.census.gov/cps/user_note_age_estimates.html.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Table A-1. Labor Force Characteristics of Persons 16 and Over, Comparison of
Calendar Years 2007 and 2013
(numbers are in 1,000s)
2007
2013
Change from 2007 to 2013
Percentage
Point Change
in the
Labor
Number
Unemploy-
Labor
Number
Unemploy-
Number
Unemploy-
Characteristic
Force Unemployed ment Rate
Force Unemployed ment Rate Unemployed ment Rate
Total 153,124
7,078
4.6%
155,389
11,460
7.4%
4,382
2.8
Men 82,136
3,882
4.7%
82,667
6,314
7.6%
2,432
2.9
Women 70,988
3,196
4.5%
72,722
5,146
7.1%
1,950 2.6

Youth (16-24)
22,217
2,342
10.5%
21,381
3,324
15.5%
981
5.0

Adult (25-54)
104,353
3,904
3.7%
100,772
6,360
6.3%
2,456
2.6

Total 153,124
7,078
4.6%
155,389
11,460
7.4%
4,382
2.8
White only
124,935
5,143
4.1%
123,412
8,033
6.5%
2,890
2.4
Black only
17,496
1,445
8.3%
18,580
2,429
13.1%
984
4.8
Other 10,693
489
4.6%
13,397
998
7.4%
508
2.9

Total 153,124
7,078
4.6%
155,389
11,460
7.4%
4,382
2.8
Hispanic 21,602
1,220
5.6%
24,771
2,257
9.1%
1,037 3.5
Non-Hispanic 131,522 5,858
4.5% 130,618 9,203
7.0%
3,345
2.6
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS).

Table A-2. Number of Workers Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment,
Averages of Monthly Data, 2013
Weeks
Number
Weeks
Number
Weeks
Number
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
50 5,829
76 2,169
102
2,309
51 14,146
77 5,331 103 611
52 630,621 78 68,210 104
406,006
53 13,036
79 1,973 105 303
54 4,453
80 543
106 97
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Note: The CPS asks unemployed persons how long they have been looking for work. Table A-2 illustrates how
respondents may round off the number of weeks that they have been unemployed. Table A-3 sums the responses to
the question on duration of unemployment for persons who have been unemployed for more than six months, more
than a year, more than 18 months, and for two years or more.

Congressional Research Service
15

Table A-3. Characteristics of the Unemployed, Averages of Monthly Data, 2013
(numbers are in 1,000s)
Number of Unemployed by Duration
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Unemployment
Two
Unem-
Two
Unem-
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or ployment
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or
Characteristic Employed
ployed
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Rate
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Gender

Total
143,929 11,460 7,155 4,305 2,336 1,517 1,421 7.4% 62.4% 37.6% 20.4% 13.2% 12.4%
Male
76,353 6,314 3,913 2,401 1,320 864 808 7.6% 62.0% 38.0% 20.9% 13.7% 12.8%
Female
67,577 5,146 3,241 1,904 1,016 653 612 7.1% 63.0% 37.0% 19.7% 12.7% 11.9%

Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Male
53.0% 55.1% 54.7% 55.8% 56.5% 57.0% 56.9%

Female
47.0% 44.9% 45.3% 44.2% 43.5% 43.0% 43.1%

Age

Total
143,929 11,460 7,155 4,305 2,336 1,517 1,421 7.4% 62.4% 37.6% 20.4% 13.2% 12.4%
16-24 18,057
3,324
2,483
841
364
202
189
15.5%
74.7%
25.3%
11.0%
6.1%
5.7%
25-34
31,242 2,504 1,560 944 502 307 290 7.4% 62.3% 37.7% 20.0% 12.3% 11.6%
35-44
30,650 1,913 1,114 799 439 282 264 5.9% 58.2% 41.8% 22.9% 14.7% 13.8%
45-54
32,520 1,943 1,083 860 517 351 320 5.6% 55.7% 44.3% 26.6% 18.0% 16.5%
55-64
23,774 1,342 677 665 401 288 274 5.3% 50.4% 49.6% 29.9% 21.4% 20.4%
65 and over
7,686
434
238
196
113
87
83
5.3%
54.8%
45.2%
25.9%
20.1%
19.1%

Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

16-24
12.5% 29.0% 34.7% 19.5% 15.6% 13.3% 13.3%

25-34
21.7% 21.8% 21.8% 21.9% 21.5% 20.3% 20.4%

35-44
21.3% 16.7% 15.6% 18.5% 18.8% 18.6% 18.6%

45-54
22.6% 17.0% 15.1% 20.0% 22.1% 23.1% 22.5%

55-64
16.5% 11.7% 9.5% 15.5% 17.2% 19.0% 19.3%

65 and over
5.3%
3.8%
3.3%
4.6%
4.8%
5.7%
5.8%

CRS-16

Number of Unemployed by Duration
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Unemployment
Two
Unem-
Two
Unem-
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or ployment
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or
Characteristic Employed
ployed
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Rate
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Education

Total
143,929 11,460 7,155 4,305 2,336 1,517 1,421 7.4% 62.4% 37.6% 20.4% 13.2% 12.4%
Less than high school
12,672
2,268
1,510
758
416
270
259
15.2%
66.6%
33.4%
18.4%
11.9%
11.4%
High school degree
38,827
3,918
2,388
1,530
825
530
501
9.2%
61.0%
39.0%
21.1%
13.5%
12.8%
Some college or
Associate’s degree
42,496 3,250 2,037 1,213 651 417 386 7.1% 62.7% 37.3% 20.0% 12.8% 11.9%
Bachelor’s
degree
32,377 1,462 884 577 316 212 197 4.3% 60.5% 39.5% 21.6% 14.5% 13.5%
Advanced or professional
degree
17,557 562 335 227 127 88 78 3.1%
59.6%
40.4%
22.5%
15.6%
13.9%

Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Less than high school
8.8%
19.8%
21.1%
17.6%
17.8%
17.8%
18.2%

High school degree
27.0%
34.2%
33.4%
35.5%
35.3%
34.9%
35.2%

Some college or
Associate’s degree
29.5% 28.4% 28.5% 28.2% 27.9% 27.5% 27.2%

Bachelor’s
degree
22.5% 12.8% 12.4% 13.4% 13.5% 13.9% 13.8%

Advanced or professional
degree
12.2% 4.9% 4.7% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.5%

Marital Status

Total
143,929 11,460 7,155 4,305 2,336 1,517 1,421 7.4% 62.4% 37.6% 20.4% 13.2% 12.4%
Married
80,383 3,818 2,340 1,479 809 531 491 4.5% 61.3% 38.7% 21.2% 13.9% 12.9%
Widowed, divorced, or
21,085 1,853 1,035 818 468 320 301 8.1% 55.8% 44.2% 25.3% 17.3% 16.2%
separated
Never
married
42,461 5,788 3,780 2,008 1,058 665 629 12.0% 65.3% 34.7% 18.3% 11.5% 10.9%

CRS-17

Number of Unemployed by Duration
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Unemployment
Two
Unem-
Two
Unem-
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or ployment
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or
Characteristic Employed
ployed
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Rate
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Married
55.8% 33.3% 32.7% 34.3% 34.7% 35.0% 34.6%

Widowed, divorced, or
separated
14.6% 16.2% 14.5% 19.0% 20.1% 21.1% 21.2%

Never
married
29.5% 50.5% 52.8% 46.6% 45.3% 43.9% 44.3%

Race

Total
143,929 11,460 7,155 4,305 2,336 1,517 1,421 7.4% 62.4% 37.6% 20.4% 13.2% 12.4%
White
only
115,379 8,033 5,159 2,874 1,568 1,017 946 6.5% 64.2% 35.8% 19.5% 12.7% 11.8%
Black
only
16,151 2,429 1,379 1,050 559 363 344 13.1% 56.8% 43.2% 23.0% 14.9% 14.2%
Other
12,399 998 617 381 208 137 131 7.4%
61.8%
38.2%
20.9%
13.7%
13.1%

Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

White
only
80.2% 70.1% 72.1% 66.8% 67.1% 67.0% 66.6%

Black
only
11.2% 21.2% 19.3% 24.4% 24.0% 23.9% 24.2%

Other
8.6% 8.7% 8.6% 8.8% 8.9% 9.0% 9.2%

Hispanic Origin

Total
143,929 11,460 7,155 4,305 2,336 1,517 1,421 7.4% 62.4% 37.6% 20.4% 13.2% 12.4%
Hispanic
22,514 2,257 1,477 780 402 245 232 9.1% 65.4% 34.6% 17.8% 10.9% 10.3%
Non-Hispanic
121,415 9,203 5,678 3,525 1,934 1,272 1,189 7.0% 61.7% 38.3% 21.0% 13.8% 12.9%

Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Hispanic
15.6% 19.7% 20.6% 18.1% 17.2% 16.2% 16.4%

Non-Hispanic
84.4% 80.3% 79.4% 81.9% 82.8% 83.8% 83.6%

CRS-18

Number of Unemployed by Duration
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Unemployment
Two
Unem-
Two
Unem-
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or ployment
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Years or
Characteristic Employed
ployed
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Rate
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
More
Citizenship

Total 143,929
11,460
7,155
4,305
2,336
1,517
1,421
7.4%
62.4%
37.6%
20.4%
13.2%
12.4%
Native-born, citizen
120,361
9,716
6,106
3,610
1,938
1,253
1,171
7.5%
62.8%
37.2%
19.9%
12.9%
12.1%
Foreign-born, naturalized
11,252
718
375
343
205
146
136
6.0%
52.2%
47.8%
28.6%
20.4%
18.9%
Foreign-born, non-citizen
12,317
1,026
673
352
192
118
114
7.7%
65.7%
34.3%
18.8%
11.5%
11.1%

Total 100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

Native-born, citizen
83.6%
84.8%
85.3%
83.8%
83.0%
82.6%
82.4%

Foreign-born, naturalized
7.8%
6.3%
5.2%
8.0%
8.8%
9.7%
9.5%

Foreign-born, non-citizen
8.6%
9.0%
9.4%
8.2%
8.2%
7.8%
8.0%

Industry

Total 143,929
10,162
6,286
3,876
2,120
1,370
1,277
6.6%
61.9%
38.1%
20.9%
13.5%
12.6%
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and hunting
2,128 159 120 39 18 12 12 6.9%
75.5%
24.5%
11.2% 7.4% 7.3%
Mining 1,066
66
51
15
7
3
3
5.9%
77.1%
22.9%
10.3%
5.1%
4.8%
Construction 9,269
1,092
712
379
204
139
135
10.5%
65.2%
34.8%
18.7%
12.8%
12.4%
Manufacturing 14,859
1,043
600
442
252
167
158
6.6%
57.6%
42.4%
24.2%
16.0%
15.1%
Wholesale and retail trade
19,668
1,524
903
621
341
221
205
7.2%
59.2%
40.8%
22.4%
14.5%
13.5%
Transportation and
7,410 467 281 186 103 66 60 5.9%
60.2%
39.8%
22.0%
14.2%
12.8%
utilities
Information 2,962
196
115
81
49
33
31
6.2%
58.6%
41.4%
25.1%
16.9%
15.8%
Financial activities
9,844
459
265
194
110
76
72
4.5%
57.8%
42.2%
24.0%
16.6%
15.8%
Professional and business
16,781 1,439 874 565 302 187 174 7.9% 60.8% 39.2% 21.0% 13.0% 12.1%
services
Educational and health
32,519 1,517 926 591 321 203 183 4.5% 61.0% 39.0% 21.1% 13.4% 12.1%
services
Leisure and hospitality
13,593
1,477
990
487
253
161
153
9.8%
67.1%
32.9%
17.1%
10.9%
10.3%
Other services
7,127
487
311
176
102
65
61
6.4%
63.9%
36.1%
21.0%
13.4%
12.5%
Public administration
6,703
237
136
101
58
35
31
3.4%
57.5%
42.5%
24.5%
14.8%
13.1%
CRS-19

The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment

Seasonal Adjustments
Month-to-month changes in labor force data may be affected by both seasonal and nonseasonal
factors. Seasonal factors include regular changes in the weather, holidays, and the opening and
closing of schools. Removing changes in unemployment that are due to regular seasonal
fluctuations makes it easier to observe cyclical changes in employment (i.e., changes associated
with economic expansions and contractions).21
BLS publishes seasonally adjusted data of the total number of unemployed workers and the
number of workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. In this report, the data series shown in
Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, and Figure 4 were seasonally adjusted by CRS using procedures
developed by the U.S. Census Bureau and used by BLS.22 The seasonal adjustments in this report
are based on nonseasonally adjusted data for the same time period; that is, the seven-year period
from 2007 through 2013. In some cases, the seasonally adjusted data shown in this report for all
unemployed workers and for workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks may not match the
seasonally adjusted data published by BLS.
Confidence Levels
Estimates based on survey responses from a sample of households have two kinds of error:
nonsampling and sampling. Examples of nonsampling error include information that is
misreported and errors made in processing collected information. Sampling error occurs because
a sample, and not the entire population, of households is surveyed. The difference between an
estimate based on a sample of households and the actual population value is known as sampling
error. When using sample data, researchers typically construct confidence intervals around
population estimates. Confidence intervals provide information about the accuracy of estimated
values. With a 90% confidence interval and repeated samples from a population, 90% of intervals
will include the average estimate of a population characteristic.

Author Contact Information

Gerald Mayer

Analyst in Labor Policy
gmayer@crs.loc.gov, 7-7815

21 Richard B. Tiller and Thomas D. Evans, Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Series in 2009, April 2009,
available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs2009.pdf, p. 1.
22 U.S. Census Bureau, The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program, available at http://www.census.gov/srd/www/
x12a. The current version of X-12-ARIMA (version 0.3) is available to CRS in statistical software from the SAS
Institute.
Congressional Research Service
23