The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
and Characteristics of Workers
Unemployed for More than 99 Weeks
Gerald Mayer
Analyst in Labor Policy
September 12, 2011
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
R41559
CRS Report for Congress
Pr
epared for Members and Committees of Congress
The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
Summary
One of the characteristics of the recession that began in the United States in December 2007 and
officially ended in June 2009 was the unprecedented rise in long-term unemployment. The long-
term unemployed are usually defined as workers who have been unemployed for more than six
months. But, many workers have been looking for work for more than a year, or for more than
99 weeks. Workers who have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks are defined here as the
“very long-term unemployed.” They are sometimes called “99ers.”
Authorization for Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08) is scheduled to expire on
January 3, 2012. Legislation has been introduced to expand and extend the program. On
September 8, 2011, President Obama proposed an extension of the program. Issues for Congress
include whether to authorize the EUC08 program beyond January 3, 2012, and whether to
provide the very long-term unemployed with more than 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.
As the national unemployment rate rose during and after the recent recession, so did long-term
unemployment rates (i.e., the number of long-term unemployed divided by the size of the labor
force). From December 2007 to June 2011, the unemployment rate for persons unemployed for
more than 99 weeks rose from 0.1% to 1.3%. As of June 2011, there were an estimated 2.0
million very long-term unemployed. This estimate, which is from the Current Population Survey
(CPS), is not a count of the number of workers who have exhausted all unemployment benefits.
An analysis of differences in the share of the unemployed who are very long-term unemployed
(i.e., the number of long-term unemployed divided by the number of unemployed) shows that
from July 2010 to June 2011,
• unemployed men were more likely than unemployed women to be out of work
for more than 99 weeks (12.3% compared to 10.8%);
• older workers were more likely than younger workers to be unemployed for more
than 99 weeks. While 8.1% of unemployed workers under the age of 35 had been
looking for work for more than 99 weeks, twice the percentage (16.3%) of
workers ages 45 and over had been out of work for more than 99 weeks.
• unemployed workers with a high school degree were as likely as workers with a
Bachelor’s degree to have been out of work for more than 99 weeks;
• married unemployed workers were more likely than unemployed workers who
have never been married to be out of work for more than 99 weeks (12.8% and
9.8%, respectively); and
• unemployed black workers were more likely than unemployed white workers to
have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks (9.9% and 7.3%, respectively);
on the other hand, unemployed non-Hispanic workers were more likely than
unemployed Hispanic workers to have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks
(8.0% and 7.0%, respectively).
The number of very long-term unemployed may or may not continue to rise. On the one hand, the
number of monthly layoffs has fallen since the official end of the 2007-2009 recession. On the
other hand, both the number of jobs and of job openings have increased. But, the numbers have
not returned to their pre-recession levels. In addition, as employers hire new workers, those who
have been unemployed the longest may be among the last to be hired.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
Contents
Issues for Congress .......................................................................................................................... 2
Overview of Data and Methodology ............................................................................................... 2
The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment........................................................................................ 3
Reliability of Estimates of the Very Long-Term Unemployed .................................................. 5
Will the Number of the Very Long-Term Unemployed Rise or Fall?........................................ 7
Layoffs ................................................................................................................................ 8
Job Openings and Employment........................................................................................... 9
Hiring the Very Long-Term Unemployed ......................................................................... 10
Characteristics of the Very Long-Term Unemployed .................................................................... 12
Gender ..................................................................................................................................... 12
Age .......................................................................................................................................... 13
Education................................................................................................................................. 13
Marital Status........................................................................................................................... 13
Race and Hispanic Origin........................................................................................................ 14
Citizenship............................................................................................................................... 14
Industry.................................................................................................................................... 14
Occupation............................................................................................................................... 15
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 16
Policy Responses ........................................................................................................................... 16
Figures
Figure 1. Unemployment Rates: Total Unemployed and Workers Unemployed for More
than 26 Weeks, January 2007 to June 2011 .................................................................................. 4
Figure 2. Unemployment Rates: Unemployed for More than 52, 78, and 99 Weeks,
January 2007 to June 2011............................................................................................................ 5
Figure 3. Number of Unemployed Workers: Total and by Duration of Unemployment,
June 2011...................................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 4. Monthly Layoffs and Discharges, January 2007 to June 2011......................................... 9
Figure 5. Number of Monthly Job Openings and Total Employment, January 2007 to June
2011 ............................................................................................................................................ 10
Figure 6. Number of Workers Unemployed for More than 78 Weeks and More than 99
Weeks, January 2007 Through June 2011 .................................................................................. 12
Tables
Table 1. Peak Unemployment Rates by Duration of Unemployment, December 2007
Through June 2011 ....................................................................................................................... 8
Table A-1. Labor Force Characteristics of Persons 16 and Over................................................... 20
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
Table A-2. Number of Workers Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment, Averages of
Monthly Data, July 2010 to June 2011 ....................................................................................... 21
Table A-3. Characteristics of the Unemployed, Averages of Monthly Data, July 2010 to
June 2011.................................................................................................................................... 22
Appendixes
Appendix. Data and Methodology................................................................................................. 19
Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 27
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
uring and after the recession that began in the United States in December 2007 and
officially ended in June 2009, the U.S. economy lost almost 9 million jobs.1
D Unemployment increased more among men than women, more among younger workers
than older workers, and more among blacks and Hispanics than among whites or non-Hispanics.2
The number of jobs has increased since the end of the recession, but job growth has been slow
and many economists predict that unemployment may remain high for several months or even
years to come.3
One of the characteristics of the recent recession was the unprecedented rise in long-term
unemployment. The long-term unemployed are usually defined as workers who have been
looking for work for more than six months. But many workers have been looking for work for
longer periods. The first part of this report examines the trend in long-term unemployment using
four definitions of the long-term unemployed: persons who have been looking for work for more
than 26 weeks, more than 52 weeks, more than 78 weeks, and more than 99 weeks. The report
uses 99 weeks as a measure of long-term unemployment because in some states with high
unemployment, unemployed workers may receive 26 weeks of regular Unemployment
Compensation (UC), 53 weeks of Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08), and 20
weeks of Extended Benefits (EB)—for a total of up to 99 weeks of UC benefits. 4 In this report,
workers who have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks are defined as the “very long-term
unemployed.” Persons who have exhausted the maximum 99 weeks of UC benefits have been
called “99ers.”
Because unemployment during the recession increased more among some groups of workers than
others, the second part of the report analyzes selected characteristics of the very long-term
unemployed.5
1 From December 2007, the official beginning of the recent recession, to February 2010, employment in the United
States fell by an estimated 8.7 million jobs (from 138.0 million to 129.3 million, seasonally adjusted). U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics
Survey, http://www.bls.gov/ces/. (Hereafter cited as BLS, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current
Employment Statistics Survey.)
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates the beginning and end of recessions. According to NBER,
the U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007. The recession officially ended in June 2009, making it the
longest recession since the Great Depression. National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S. Business Cycle Expansions
and Contractions, http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html.
2 Table A-1 in the Appendix shows changes in unemployment from calendar year 2007 to the 12-month period from
July 2010 to June 2010 for persons ages 16 and over in different demographic groups.
3 According to projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the unemployment rate for the years 2011
through 2015 will be 8.9%, 8.7%, 8.7%, 7.9%, and 6.1%, respectively. Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and
Economic Outlook: An Update, August 2011, Table B-1, http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/123xx/doc12316/08-24-
BudgetEconUpdate.pdf.
4 For a description of the different unemployment benefit programs, see CRS Report RS22915, Temporary Extension of
Unemployment Benefits: Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08), by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M.
Whittaker.
5 For a comparison of long-term unemployment rates during recent recessions, see CRS Report R41179, Long-Term
Unemployment and Recessions, by Gerald Mayer and Linda Levine. (Hereafter cited as CRS Report R41179,
Recessions and Long-Term Unemployment.)
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Issues for Congress
Authorization for the EUC08 program is scheduled to expire on January 3, 2012.6 Legislation has
been introduced to expand and extend the program.7 On September 8, 2011, President Barack
Obama proposed an extension of the program.8 Issues for Congress include whether to authorize
the EUC08 program beyond January 3, 2012, and whether to provide the very long-term
unemployed with more than 99 weeks of UC benefits.9
Overview of Data and Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on data from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS),
which is a household survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The monthly CPS is the source of the national
monthly unemployment rate and other labor market information.
The first part of the report examines the trend in long-term unemployment, by month, over the
period from January 2007 to June 2011. Because the analysis of individual characteristics may
rely on small sample sizes, the second part of the report uses monthly average data for the 12-
month period from July 2010 to June 2011.
The first part of the report examines long-term unemployment rates. The long-term
unemployment rate is the number of long-term unemployed divided by the size of the labor force,
where the labor force is the sum of persons who are employed or unemployed. The second part of
the report analyzes differences in the share of the unemployed who are very long-term
6 Congress enacted the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08) program as Title IV of the Supplemental
Appropriations Act, 2008, P.L. 100-252. Congress has amended the program several times since. On December 16,
2010, President Barack Obama signed P.L. 111-312 (H.R. 4853, the “Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance
Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010”). Among other things, P.L. 111-312 reauthorized the EUC08 program
for 13 months, to January 3, 2012. “Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act Of
2010,” Congressional Record, v. 156., December 16, 2010, p. H8588.
7 For a discussion of unemployment insurance legislation introduced in the 112th Congress, see CRS Report R41662,
Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 112th Congress, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
8 White House, America Jobs Act: Fact Sheet and Overview, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/08/
fact-sheet-and-overview.
9 During the first half of 2011, several states enacted legislation to reduce the maximum number of weeks of regular
UC. In most states, unemployed workers are eligible for up to 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits. Montana
provides up to 28 weeks and Massachusetts up to 30 weeks of regular UC. The following states have reduced the
maximum number of weeks of regular UC:
- Arkansas, from 26 to 25 weeks, effective March 30, 2011,
- Missouri, from 26 to 20 weeks, effective April 13, 2011,
- South Carolina, from 26 to 20 weeks, effective June 14, 2011,
- Florida, from 26 weeks to 12 to 23 weeks, depending the state unemployment rate, effective
January 1, 2012,
- Illinois, from 26 to 25 weeks, effective January 1, 2012, and
- Michigan, from 26 to 20 weeks, effective January 15, 2012.
CRS Report R41859, Unemployment Insurance: Consequences of Changes in State Unemployment Compensation
Laws, by Katelin P. Isaacs.
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unemployed, which is the number of long-term unemployed divided by the number of workers
who are unemployed.
The CPS does not collect information on the number of unemployed workers who have exhausted
all available UC benefits. Workers who are counted as unemployed in the CPS may or may not be
receiving UC benefits. Conversely, persons who are receiving UC benefits may or may not be
counted as unemployed in the CPS. In the CPS, persons are counted as unemployed if they do not
have a job, they actively looked for work in the four weeks before they were interviewed, and
they are currently available for work.10 Persons receiving UC benefits may not meet the CPS
definition of who is unemployed; for example, they may not be looking for work because they are
in an education or training program. Also, persons receiving UC benefits could fit the CPS
definition of someone who is employed; for example, they could be in a work-sharing program.11
The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
This part of the report compares the national unemployment rate to the long-term unemployment
rates for workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks, more than 52 weeks, more
than 78 weeks, and more than 99 weeks. The four groups of the long-term unemployed are not
mutually exclusive. Workers who have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks are in the group
of unemployed workers who have been looking for work for more than 78 weeks. Workers
unemployed for more than 78 weeks are in the group that has been unemployed for more than 52
weeks, and so on.
Figure 1 shows the national unemployment rate and the long-term unemployment rate for
workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. As the overall unemployment rate increased during
and after the 2007-2009 recession, so did the unemployment rate for workers unemployed for
more than 26 weeks. In April 2010, the unemployment rate for workers unemployed for more
than 26 weeks reached 4.6%, which was the highest rate recorded since BLS began collecting
data on long-term unemployment in 1948.12 The long-term unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in
August 2010, where it largely remained through June 2011.
10 Persons who are not working and are waiting to be called back to a job from which they have been laid off are also
counted as unemployed. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current
Population Survey, http://stats.bls.gov/cps. (Hereafter cited as BLS, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population
Survey.)
The Appendix provides more detail on the data and methodology used in this report.
11 Work sharing programs, also called short-term compensation programs, provide partial UC benefits to workers
whose work hours have been reduced. U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Unemployment Insurance, Unemployment
Compensation: Federal-State Partnership, April 2011, http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/
partnership.pdf, p. 14.
12 The data discussed in this section of the report are not seasonally adjusted. Month-to-month changes in
unemployment are affected by both seasonal and nonseasonal factors. Seasonal factors include regular changes in the
weather, holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. By removing changes in unemployment that are due to
seasonal factors, it is possible to observe nonseasonal changes in unemployment (e.g., cyclical changes in
unemployment). Richard B. Tiller and Thomas D. Evans, Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Series in 2009,
p. 1, http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs2009.pdf.
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Figure 1. Unemployment Rates: Total Unemployed and Workers Unemployed for
More than 26 Weeks, January 2007 to June 2011
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
07
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08
09
9
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00
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ne 2011
Ja
July
Ja
July
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Jan
Ju
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Total unemployed
Unemployed more than 26 weeks
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Figure 2 shows the long-term unemployment rates for workers unemployed for more than 52, 78,
and 99 weeks. Like the rate for workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks, as the national
unemployment rate increased so did the unemployment rates for the other categories of the long-
term unemployed. In June 2011, the unemployment rate for workers who were unemployed for
more than a year was 2.2%, up from 0.3% in December 2007. For workers who were unemployed
for more than 99 weeks, the unemployment rate increased from 0.1% in December 2007 to 1.3%
in June 2011.
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Figure 2. Unemployment Rates: Unemployed for More than 52, 78, and 99 Weeks,
January 2007 to June 2011
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
07
07
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08
09
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00
10
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2
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ne 2011
Jan
Ju
Jan
Ju
Jan
July
Jan
July
Ja
Ju
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Unemployed more than 52 weeks
Unemployed more than 78 weeks
Unemployed more than 99 weeks
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Note: The groups of the long-term unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been
unemployed for more than 99 weeks have been unemployed for more than 78 weeks, and so on.
Reliability of Estimates of the Very Long-Term Unemployed
For each of the unemployment rates shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, Figure 3 shows the number
of unemployed workers in June 2011. Of the estimated 14.4 million workers who were
unemployed, almost 2.2 million were unemployed for more than 78 weeks and an estimated 2.0
million were unemployed for more than 99 weeks. These numbers suggest that most workers who
have been looking for work for more than 78 weeks have been unemployed for more than 99
weeks.
The CPS provides useful information on the number of long-term unemployed. But, the estimates
may not be precise. In the CPS, many respondents round off the number of weeks that they have
been unemployed. For example, many workers who report that they have been unemployed for a
year may actually have been unemployed for more than a year or less than a year. For the 12
months from July 2010 to June 2011, almost 1.0 million unemployed persons said that they had
been out of work for 52 weeks, but fewer than 25,000 said that they had been unemployed for
either 51 or 53 weeks. (See Table A-2 in the Appendix.) Similarly, many respondents who report
that they have been unemployed for two years may actually have been unemployed for less than
two years and, perhaps, for 99 weeks or less. From July 2010 to June 2011, an average of almost
700,000 persons said that they had been unemployed for two years, but fewer than 10,000 people
said that they had been unemployed for 99 weeks.
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Figure 3. Number of Unemployed Workers: Total and by Duration of Unemployment,
June 2011
(numbers are in 1,000s)
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
Total
Over 26 weeks
Over 52 weeks
Over 78 weeks
Over 99 weeks
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Note: The groups of the long-term unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been
unemployed for more than 99 weeks have been unemployed for more than 78 weeks, and so on.
The estimate of the number of workers who have been out of work for two years may also be
affected by how responses to the CPS are recorded. Until January 2011, if a respondent reported
being unemployed for more than two years, the person’s duration of unemployment was recorded
as two years. Starting in January 2011, the CPS allows respondents to report durations of
unemployment of up to five years.13
Thus, estimates of the number of workers who have been unemployed for two years may be
affected by two factors. The responses of some workers who said that they have been out of work
for more than two years may have been capped at two years. On the other hand, some workers
who said that they have been unemployed for two years may actually have been unemployed for
less than two years, but rounded off their response to two years. It is the responses of persons who
were actually unemployed for 99 weeks or less and who rounded up their duration of
unemployment to two years that may cause the CPS to overestimate the number of workers who
13 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Changes to Data Collected on Unemployment Duration,
http://www.bls.gov/cps/duration.htm.
Before January 2011, the CPS could report a person as being unemployed for more than two years. In the CPS survey,
a household is in the survey for four consecutive months, out of the survey for the next eight months, and then back in
the survey for the next four months. The duration of unemployment for individuals in the survey for consecutive
months is calculated automatically by adding to the number of weeks unemployed since the previous month. Thus, an
individual who was coded as being unemployed for two years could be reported as being unemployed for more than
two years if they were in the survey for consecutive months after having been recorded as being unemployed for two
years.
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have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks. These persons would have to make up a large
share of those recorded as unemployed for two years for the CPS to significantly overstate the
number of persons unemployed for more than 99 weeks. Even if many respondents do not report
the exact number of weeks that they have been unemployed, it is still be possible to analyze the
trend in long-term unemployment if the extent of underreporting and overreporting is consistent
over time.
Many individuals who are not working may not fit the CPS definition of being unemployed. In
the CPS, a person is counted as unemployed if he or she is not working, has actively looked for
work in the four weeks before the survey, and is currently available for work. Thus, although the
CPS shows that an estimated 2.0 million workers were unemployed for more than 99 weeks in
June 2011, other persons may not have worked for more than 99 weeks but did not meet the CPS
definition of being unemployed.
Will the Number of the Very Long-Term Unemployed Rise or Fall?
Whether or not the number of very long-term unemployed rises or falls in the months ahead may
depend on several factors. During the recession, the number of unemployed workers increased,
while both the number of employed persons and the number of job openings fell. Since the end of
the recession, the number of monthly layoffs has fallen. Both employment and the number of job
openings have increased, but neither has returned to their pre-recession levels. Finally, during an
economic recovery workers who have been unemployed the longest are often the last to be hired.
As of June 2011 (the most recent data used for this report), it has been two years since the official
end of the recent recession. Table 1 shows the peak unemployment rates for each measure of
long-term unemployment shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2. Because these rates are from
unpublished data, they are not seasonally adjusted. Nevertheless, the estimates in Table 1 indicate
that the longer the duration of unemployment, the later the peak unemployment rate. For all
unemployed workers, the peak unemployment rate occurred seven months after the end of the
recession. For workers unemployed for more than a year, the peak unemployment rate occurred
19 months after the end of the recession. For workers unemployed for more than 78 weeks, the
peak unemployment rate occurred 21 months after the end of the recession. For workers
unemployed for more 99 weeks, the peak unemployment rate occurred in June 2011. Since the
most recent data used in this report are for June 2011, it is not known if the post-recession peak
unemployment rate for the very long-term unemployed has been reached.
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Table 1. Peak Unemployment Rates by Duration of Unemployment,
December 2007 Through June 2011
Number of Months
After the End of the
Peak
Month of the Peak Recession Before the
Unemployment
Unemployment
Peak Unemployment
Characteristic
Rate
Rate
Rate
Total Unemployed
10.6%
January 2010
7
Unemployed more than 26 weeks
4.6%
April 2010
10
Unemployed more than 52 weeks
2.4%
January 2011
19
Unemployed more than 78 weeks
1.4%
March 2011
21
Unemployed more than 99 weeks
1.3%
June 2011
24 (may go highera)
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Notes: BLS publishes seasonally adjusted data for the total number of workers unemployed and the number of
workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks. Using seasonally adjusted data, the peak monthly unemployment
rate between January 2007 and June 2011 occurred in October 2009 (10.1%), four months after the end of the
recession. For workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks, the peak unemployment rate (4.4%) occurred in
June 2010, 12 months after the end of the recession.
a. The most recent data used in this report are for June 2011, which was two years after the official end of the
recession. Thus, the post-recession peak unemployment rate may or may not have been reached.
Layoffs
The pattern of layoffs since the end of the recession could contribute to a reduction in the number
of very long-term unemployed. In June 2011, workers who were unemployed for more than 99
weeks lost their jobs before August 2009. In the year before August 2009, there were an average
of 2.3 million layoffs and discharges per month. 14 See Figure 4. If they remained unemployed,
workers who were laid off before August 2009 already appear in the number of very long-term
unemployed. From August 2009 through June 2011, there were an average of 1.8 million layoffs
and discharges a month. 15 Thus, since August 2009 there have been roughly half a million fewer
layoffs and discharges a month than in the year before August 2009. In coming months, fewer
monthly layoffs and discharges since August 2009 may contribute to fewer very long-term
unemployed.
14 Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. A layoff is expected to last more than
seven days, and may be permanent. Discharges may result from mergers, closings, or terminations. U.S. Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, June 2010, http://stats.bls.gov/
news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf.
15 Figure 4 shows that the number of layoffs increased from April 2010 to June 2010. To some extent, this increase
may have been related to the end of the 2010 decennial Census, as temporary workers hired for the Census were laid
off.
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Figure 4. Monthly Layoffs and Discharges, January 2007 to June 2011
(numbers are in 1,000s)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
07
07
8
00
08
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ly 20
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ly
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ne 2011
Ja
Ju
Ja
July
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Number of layoffs and discharges
Source: Data are from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Data are seasonally
adjusted.
Job Openings and Employment
The pattern of job openings since the end of the recession may not, however, contribute to a
reduction in the number of very long-term unemployed. The number of monthly job openings has
increased since the end of the recession, but the number has not returned to pre-recession levels.
(Job openings are defined here as the number of hires per month plus the number of unfilled job
openings on the last business day of the month.) In the months leading up to the recession there
were an average of almost 10 million job openings per month. From July 2010 through June
2011, there were an average of almost 7 million job openings a month, roughly 3 million fewer
openings a month since before the recession. See Figure 5.
Similarly, employment has increased since the end of the recession but has not returned to pre-
recession levels.16 In December 2007, there were an estimated 138.0 million jobs. Employment
fell to 129.2 million in February 2010, and increased to 131.0 million in June 2011
(approximately 1.8 million more jobs than in February 2010).17 Thus, employment in June 2011
was almost 6.9 million below the level of employment in December 2007. See Figure 5.
16 For an analysis of job growth since the end of the recession, see CRS Report R41434, Job Growth During the
Recovery, by Linda Levine.
17 BLS, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics Survey.
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Figure 5. Number of Monthly Job Openings and Total Employment,
January 2007 to June 2011
(numbers are in 1,000s)
12,000
150,000
11,000
135,000
ing 10,000
en
ent
op
120,000
9,000
b
oym
pl
f jo
m
8,000
105,000
er o
tal e
b 7,000
To
Num
90,000
6,000
5,000
75,000
07
07
08
08
09
09
10
10
1
011
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20
. 20
20
. 20
. 20
20
. 201 ne 2
Jan
July
Jan
July
Jan
July 20
Jan
July
Jan
Ju
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Employment
Job openings
Source: Data are from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the BLS Current
Employment Statistics (CES) Survey.
Notes: The number of job openings is the sum of the monthly number of hires and the number of unfilled job
openings on the last business day of the month. JOLTS and CES data are seasonally adjusted.
Hiring the Very Long-Term Unemployed
After a recession, workers who have been unemployed the longest are often the last to be hired.
Currently, employers have a large pool of labor from which to hire full-time workers. For these
reasons, the number of very long-term unemployed could remain high for some months to come.
Because of the depth of the recession, there are a large number of unemployed and
underemployed workers. In June 2011, there were an estimated 14.4 million persons unemployed
(not seasonally adjusted). Another 982,000 persons had become discouraged and had stopped
looking for work (also not seasonally adjusted).18 Employers can also increase the number of
18 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation: June 2011, http://stats.bls.gov/
news.release/archives/empsit_07082011.pdf, Tables A-1 and A-16. (Hereafter cited as BLS, The Employment
Situation: June 2011.)
Discouraged workers are not looking for work because they believe that there are no jobs available or that there are no
jobs for which they would qualify. Discouraged workers are not counted as unemployed. Workers may also leave the
labor force for other reasons. For example, they may retire, return to school, or choose to stay at home to take care of
children or other family members. BLS, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey.
A spell of unemployment ends when a worker finds a job or leaves the labor force. In 2009, from one month to the
next, an average of 19.6% of workers ages 16 and over who were unemployed in one month had left the labor force by
(continued...)
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
hours worked for those employees who are employed part-time but who would like to work full-
time. In June 2011, almost 2.4 million workers were employed part-time because they could not
find full-time jobs. Other persons were working part-time because there was not enough work or
because there was a seasonal slowdown in demand (an estimated 5.8 million workers).19 In
addition, as economic conditions improve, other persons may enter (or re-enter) the labor force.
Some research indicates that, as the demand for workers increases following a recession,
employers generally hire the short-term unemployed before they hire the long-term
unemployed.20 Thus, the number of long-term unemployed could remain high for some time to
come.
Figure 6 shows the trend in the number of workers unemployed for more than 78 weeks and
more than 99 weeks. Despite some month-to-month reductions, since the beginning of the 2007-
2009 recession there has been a steady increase in the number of workers unemployed for more
than 78 weeks or more than 99 weeks.
(...continued)
the next month. An average of 17.3% of workers who were unemployed in one month had found work by the next
month. In 2007, from one month to the next, an average of 24.2% of unemployed workers left the labor force and an
average of 27.6% of unemployed workers found work. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Issues in
Labor Statistics: Long-Term Unemployment Experience of the Jobless, June 2010, p. 4, http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/
pdf/opbils82.pdf.
19 BLS, The Employment Situation: June 2011, Summary Table A. The estimates of part-time workers are seasonally
adjusted.
20 Michael W. Elsby, Bart Hobijn, and Aysegul Sahin, The Labor Market in the Great Recession, National Bureau of
Economic Research Working Paper 15979, pp. 24-25, http://www.nber.org/papers/w15979.
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Figure 6. Number of Workers Unemployed for More than 78 Weeks and
More than 99 Weeks, January 2007 Through June 2011
(numbers are in 1,000s)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
07
7
8
9
00
08
00
00
09
10
10
11
20
n. 20
ly 2
n. 20
ly 2
n. 2
ly 20
n. 20
n. 20
ne 2011
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Ja
Ju
Ja
July
Ja
Ju
Recession (December 2007 to June 2009)
Unemployed more than 78 weeks
Unemployed more than 99 weeks
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Note: The groups of the long-term unemployed are not mutually exclusive. Workers who have been
unemployed for more than 99 weeks have been unemployed for more than 78 weeks.
Characteristics of the Very Long-Term Unemployed
This part of the report analyzes selected characteristics of the very long-term unemployed. The
analysis is based on monthly average data for the period from July 2010 to June 2011. The data
underlying the analysis in this section are provided in Table A-3 in the Appendix.
Gender
During the 12 months from July 2010 to June 2011, unemployed workers were more likely to be
male than female. Men were also more likely than women to have been out of work for more than
99 weeks.
Men made up 56.8% of unemployed workers, compared to 52.9% of the employed. Among all
unemployed workers, 11.7% had been looking for work for more than 99 weeks. But, 12.3% of
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
unemployed men had been out of work for more than 99 weeks, compared to 10.8% of
unemployed women.21
Age
During the period from July 2010 to June 2011, unemployed workers were more likely to be
younger, but older unemployed workers were more likely to be out of work for more than 99
weeks.
Almost half (49.0%) of unemployed workers were under the age of 35, compared to 34.1% of
employed workers. On the other hand, almost half (46.4%) of workers unemployed for more than
99 weeks were ages 45 and over.
Among unemployed workers under the age of 35, 8.1% had been unemployed for more than 99
weeks. Twice the percentage, 16.3%, of unemployed workers ages 45 and over had been looking
for work for more than 99 weeks.
Education
During the 12 months from July 2010 to June 2011, a majority of unemployed workers had a high
school education or less. But, unemployed workers with a high school degree only or with a
Bachelor’s degree were equally likely to have been looking for work for more than 99 weeks.
Among unemployed workers, 55.8% had a high school education or less, compared to 37.3% of
persons who had jobs.
Among unemployed workers with a high school degree, 12.4% had been looking for work for
more than 99 weeks. By comparison, 11.3% of unemployed workers with a Bachelor’s degree
had been out of work for more than 99 weeks. The difference in these percentages is not
statistically significant, however. On the other hand, unemployed workers with a high school
degree were more likely than workers with some college to have been looking for work for more
than 99 weeks. An estimated 11.2% of unemployed workers with some college had been out of
work for more than 99 weeks. The difference between unemployed workers with a high school
degree and some college was statistically significant.
Marital Status
Married workers are less likely to be unemployed than workers who have never been married.
But, among unemployed workers married workers are more likely than workers who have never
been married to be unemployed for more than 99 weeks.
For the 12-month period from July 2010 to June 2011, among unemployed workers, 36.5% were
married, compared to 56.9% of employed workers. On the other hand, 46.5% of unemployed
workers had never been married, compared to 28.3% of persons with jobs.
21 Unless otherwise noted, the percentage comparisons in this report are significant at the 90% confidence level or
better. See the discussion of confidence intervals in the Appendix.
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Among unemployed workers, 12.8% of married workers had been looking for work for more than
99 weeks, compared to 9.8% of unemployed workers who were never married. Similarly,
unemployed workers who were widowed, divorced, or separated were more likely (14.2%) than
those who were never married (9.8%) to have been out of work for more than 99 weeks.
Race and Hispanic Origin
Black and Hispanic workers are more likely than white workers to be unemployed. In addition,
unemployed black workers are more likely than unemployed white workers to have been
unemployed for more than 99 weeks. On the other hand, unemployed Hispanic and non-Hispanic
workers are equally likely to have been unemployed for more than 99 weeks.
Among unemployed workers, 19.9% were black and 19.4% were Hispanic.22 Among unemployed
black workers, 13.3% were unemployed for more than 99 weeks, compared to 11.0% of white
workers. On the other hand, 11.8% of unemployed Hispanic workers had been unemployed for
more than 99 weeks, compared to 11.0% of non-Hispanic workers. The difference between
Hispanic and non-Hispanic workers was not statistically significant.
Citizenship
Noncitizens are more likely than native-born citizens to be unemployed, but unemployed
noncitizens are as likely as citizens to be unemployed for more than 99 weeks.23
Noncitizens accounted for 9.8% of unemployed workers, compared to 8.6% of all employed
workers. But, noncitizens were as likely (11.0%) as native-born citizens (11.4%) to be
unemployed for more than 99 weeks.24
Industry
Unemployed individuals who had worked in the construction, manufacturing, or leisure and
hospitality industries were more likely to be among the unemployed than individuals who worked
in other industries. In addition, unemployed workers in construction and manufacturing, but not
leisure and hospitality, were more likely than other unemployed workers to have been looking for
work for more than 99 weeks.
In the 12-month period from July 2010 to June 2011, 13.9% of unemployed workers had been
employed in the construction industry. Among those with jobs, 6.5% worked in construction (a
difference between the shares of the unemployed and employed of 7.4 percentage points). An
22 Hispanics can be of any race.
23 The CPS asks respondents if they are citizens of the United States. The survey also asks citizens if they were born a
U.S. citizen or if they are naturalized citizens. The CPS does not ask noncitizens if they are legal immigrants,
nonimmigrants who are in the United States temporarily (e.g., guest workers), or whether they are in the country
without authorization. Therefore, in this report, the definition of noncitizens includes legal immigrants, legal
nonimmigrants, and unauthorized aliens.
24 If naturalized citizens are combined with native-born citizens, the difference between unemployed citizens and
noncitizens who were out of work for more than 99 weeks was not statistically significant.
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estimated 11.8% of unemployed workers had been employed in manufacturing, while, among
those with jobs, 10.2% worked in manufacturing. Table A-3.
Among workers who lost jobs, 11.9% had been looking for work for more than 99 weeks.
However, among unemployed workers who had been employed in manufacturing, 15.9% had
been out of work for more than 99 weeks. Among unemployed construction workers, 13.2% had
been unemployed for more than 99 weeks.
Workers in the leisure and hospitality industry were overrepresented among unemployed workers
but underrepresented among the very long-term unemployed. Approximately 12.9% of
unemployed workers had been employed in the leisure and hospitality industries, while 9.1% of
those with jobs were employed in these industries. On the other hand, 9.5% of unemployed
workers from the leisure and hospitality industries had been out of work for more than 99 weeks
(compared to 11.9% of all unemployed workers).
Workers in educational and health services were underrepresented among both the unemployed
and the very long-term unemployed. While 13.4% of unemployed workers had been employed in
educational and health service industries, 22.9% of those with jobs worked in these industries. An
estimated 9.8% of unemployed workers from the educational and health services industries had
been looking for work for more than 99 weeks (again, compared to 11.9% of all unemployed
workers).
Occupation
To a large extent, unemployment by occupation reflects unemployment in the construction,
manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality industries. A disproportionate share of unemployed
workers had been employed in construction and extraction occupations (12.3%, compared to
5.1% of the employed), production occupations (8.6%, compared to 5.9% of the employed),
transportation and material moving occupations (8.4%, compared to 6.0% of the employed), and
service occupations (21.5%, compared to 17.7% of the employed).25 See Table A-3.
In addition to being overrepresented among unemployed workers, unemployed production
workers were also more likely than other workers to have been out of work for more than 99
weeks. While 11.9% of all unemployed workers had been looking for work for more than 99
weeks, 15.3% of unemployed production workers had been out of work for more than 99 weeks.
By contrast, unemployed construction and extraction workers and transportation and material
moving workers were neither more nor less likely than other workers to have been looking for
work for more than 99 weeks.
Although unemployed workers who last worked in service occupations were overrepresented
among unemployed workers, they were underrepresented among the very long-term unemployed.
Among workers who lost their jobs, 21.5% had been employed in service occupations, while
17.7% of those with jobs were employed in service occupations. By contrast, 10.0% of
unemployed workers in service occupations had been looking for work for more than 99 weeks
(compared to 11.9% of all unemployed workers).
25 Service occupations include jobs in healthcare support, protective services, food preparation and serving, building
and grounds cleaning and maintenance, and personal care and service.
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Conclusion
The number of very long-term unemployed increased from January 2007 to June 2011. The
number may or may not continue to rise. On the one hand, the number of workers laid off each
month has fallen since the official end of the 2007-2009 recession. On the other hand, although
both the number of jobs and of job openings have increased, the numbers have not returned to
their pre-recession levels. In addition, as employers hire new workers, those who have been
unemployed the longest may be among the last to be hired.
Data for the 12-month period from July 2010 to June 2011 show that unemployed men were more
likely than women to be unemployed for more than 99 weeks. Also, workers who had been
looking for work for more than 99 weeks were more likely to be older, married, and, in some
instances, minorities. If married workers have a stronger attachment to the labor force than
unmarried workers, they may continue to look for work. Those who stay in the labor force but
cannot find work will continue to be counted among the very long-term unemployed.
Almost two out of five (38.6%) unemployed workers had been employed in construction, leisure
and hospitality, or manufacturing. Unemployed workers in construction and manufacturing were
more likely than other unemployed workers to have been looking for work for more than 99
weeks. As output in these industries grows, there should be more job opportunities for the
unemployed.
Rapid economic growth will likely benefit the very long-term unemployed. On the other hand,
changes in the relative levels of employment by industry or occupation or changes in technology
may slow the pace at which employers hire the very long-term unemployed.
Policy Responses
The very long-term unemployed may be out of work because of cyclical unemployment,
structural unemployment, or both. Cyclical unemployment occurs when there is a decline in
aggregate demand that causes employers to layoff workers or hire fewer workers. Structural
unemployment occurs when there is a mismatch in a labor market between the skills that workers
possess and the skills that employers want.26
The policy responses to cyclical unemployment and structural unemployment are different. The
usual policy responses to cyclical unemployment are fiscal and monetary policies to increase
aggregate demand. Fiscal policies consist of changes in government spending or taxes. Monetary
policies consist of actions by the Federal Reserve to affect interest rates or the money supply.
As the demand for consumer goods increases and business investment improves, employers can
be expected to hire more workers. In general, employers may hire the short-term unemployed
before they hire the very long-term unemployed. But, employers can be provided with incentives
to hire the very long-term unemployed. These incentives can include tax breaks or direct
subsidies. Alternatively, the very long-term unemployed can be provided with incentives to
26 Ronald G. Ehrenberg and Robert S. Smith, Modern Labor Economics: Theory and Public Policy, 7th ed., Reading,
MA: Addison-Wesley, 2000, pp. 574, 581.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
encourage them to accept available jobs. For example, wage insurance can compensate the long-
term employed who accept jobs that pay less than the jobs they lost. Reemployment bonuses can
encourage the very long-term unemployed to accept new jobs and shorten their spell of
unemployment.27
Structural unemployment may call for other policy responses. In some cases, structural
unemployment may be due to a geographic mismatch in skills. Workers in a labor market may not
have the skills that employers want. But there may be workers in other labor markets with the
desired skills. 28 In this case, policy responses may include incentives for employers to hire where
there are workers available or incentives for workers to locate where there are jobs available.29
Another way for public policy to respond to structural unemployment is with education and
training. Public policy can help workers obtain the skills demanded by employers. It can also
create incentives for employers to train the very long-term unemployed to learn the skills that
employers need.
For those very long-term unemployed who cannot find work, Congress could extend the UC
benefit period to more than 99 weeks.30 An extension of UC benefits could help stimulate
demand, but it could also create disincentives for the very long-term unemployed to look for work
or accept job offers.31
If the very long-term unemployed cannot find work, if they accept jobs that pay substantially less
than their previous jobs, or if they leave the labor force, another policy option is to ensure income
support for workers in lower-income households. This support could come from existing
programs, in which case congressional interest may be in the level of funding for these programs
or in the eligibility rules for benefits.
Since the very long-term unemployed are more likely than other workers to be older, some may
have retired or will retire. Workers ages 62 and over may be eligible for Social Security
retirement benefits.32 Disabled workers under the age of 65 may be eligible for Social Security
27 For more discussion of policy responses to long-term unemployment, see CRS Report R41179, Long-Term
Unemployment and Recessions.
28 Labor markets may be local, regional, national, or international. For some skills, employers may recruit from the
local labor market (e.g., for jobs requiring few skills). For other skills (e.g., for top executives), employers may recruit
from the national or international labor market.
29 For unemployed home owners, it may be difficult to relocate if they want to sell their homes, especially if their
mortgages are more than the market value of their homes. For a discussion of foreclosure prevention programs, see
CRS Report R40210, Preserving Homeownership: Foreclosure Prevention Initiatives, by Katie Jones.
30 For a discussion of policy proposals for persons who have exhaust their UC benefits, see CRS Report RL33362,
Unemployment Insurance: Programs and Benefits, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
Workers who are unemployed because their jobs have moved overseas or because of increased imports may be eligible
for income support and training under the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. Workers ages 50 and over
who are eligible for TAA may receive Reemployment Trade Adjustment Assistance (RTAA), which provides workers
with a wage supplement. See CRS Report RS22718, Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers (TAA) and Alternative
Trade Adjustment Assistance (ATAA), by John J. Topoleski.
31 For a review of recent research on the effect of UC benefits on unemployment, see CRS Report R41179, Long-Term
Unemployment and Recessions.
32 For more information on Social Security retirement benefits, see CRS Report RL33544, Social Security Reform:
Current Issues and Legislation, by Dawn Nuschler.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
disability benefits.33 Low-income disabled workers may be eligible for Supplemental Security
Income (SSI).34
Other programs that may assist low-income households include the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as Food Stamps), which provides benefits to low-
income households to buy food.35 The Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program
provides cash assistance and other benefits to low-income families with children.36 Low-income
households may be eligible for health care services under the Medicaid program.37 The Low-
Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) helps lower income households with home
utility costs.38
33 The Social Security Administration (SSA) has reported that the recent recession generated an “unprecedented surge”
in claims for Social Security disability benefits. Social Security Administration, FY2011 Budget Overview, p. 11,
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/budget.
34 For more information on Social Security disability benefits and the SSI program, see CRS Report RL32279, Primer
on Disability Benefits: Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI), by Umar
Moulta-Ali.
35 See CRS Report R41076, The Federal Response to Calls for Increased Aid from USDA’s Food Assistance Programs,
by Joe Richardson.
36 See CRS Report R40946, The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Block Grant: An Introduction, by Gene
Falk.
37 See CRS Report RL33202, Medicaid: A Primer, by Elicia J. Herz.
38 See CRS Report RL31865, The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP): Program and Funding,
by Libby Perl.
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The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
Appendix. Data and Methodology
This appendix provides a more detailed description of data and methodology used in this report.
Data
The analysis in this report is based on data from the monthly Current Employment Statistics
(CES) Survey and the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS).
The CES is a survey of nonfarm establishments conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS). The sample includes approximately 160,000 businesses and government agencies. The
survey does not include self-employed persons, agricultural workers, private household workers,
unpaid family workers, or persons on active military duty. 39
The CPS is a household survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The monthly CPS collects information
from approximately 50,000 households. The sample for the monthly CPS is representative of the
civilian noninstitutional population of the United States. The sample does not include persons
living in institutions (such as mental hospitals, nursing homes, or correctional facilities).40
In the CPS, persons are counted as employed if they did any work for pay during the survey
week, if they did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a family-run business, or if they were
temporarily absent from their regular job because of illness, vacation, bad weather, industrial
dispute, or various personal reasons. Persons are counted as unemployed if they did not have a
job, actively looked for work in the four weeks before the survey, and are currently available for
work. Persons who are not working and are waiting to be called back to a job from which they
have been temporarily laid off are also counted as unemployed.41
In the CPS, “duration of unemployment” is the number of weeks that a person who is classified as
unemployed has been looking for work. For someone on layoff, duration of unemployment is the
number of weeks since the person was laid off. A period of two weeks or more during which a
person is employed or stopped looking for work is considered a break in the continuous period of
unemployment.42
In this report, estimates of the employed include both wage and salary workers and self-employed
persons who work in unincorporated businesses.
As noted in the introduction, during the December 2007-June 2009 recession, unemployment
increased more among men than women, more among younger than older workers, and more
among blacks and Hispanics than among white or non-Hispanics. Table A-1 shows changes in
39 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, vol. 58, February 2011, p. 197,
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ee/empearn201102.pdf.
40 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), http://www.census.gov/cps/.
41 BLS, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey.
42 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Information, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
2009 Annual Social and Economic (ASEC) Supplement, October 2009, http://www.census.gov/apsd/techdoc/cps/
cpsmar09.pdf, p. 9-1.
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unemployment rates for different groups of workers. From 2007 to the 12-month period from July
2010 to June 2011, unemployment increased by 5.2 percentage points among men and 4.1 points
among women. It increased by 7.3 points among young workers (ages 16 to 24) and by 4.5 points
among workers ages 25 to 54. Among black workers, unemployment increased by 3.4 percentage
points more than it increased among white workers (7.6 versus 4.2 points). Unemployment
increased by 6.5 points among Hispanic workers, but by 4.3 points among non-Hispanic workers.
Table A-2 illustrates how respondents in the CPS may round off the number of weeks that they
are unemployed. Until January 2011, BLS capped the duration of unemployment at two years.
Beginning in January 2011, respondents can report up to five years of unemployment.
Table A-3 provides the data discussed in the second part of the report on the “Characteristics of
the Very Long-Term Unemployed.”
Table A-1. Labor Force Characteristics of Persons 16 and Over
(numbers are in 1,000s)
Number and
Averages of Monthly Data, July 2010
Percentage Point
Averages of Monthly Data, 2007
to June 2011
Changes
Labor
Number
Unemploy-
Labor
Number
Unemploy-
Number
Unemploy-
Characteristic
Force
Unemployed ment Rate
Force
Unemployed ment Rate Unemployed ment Rate
Men 82,136
3,882
4.7%
81,871
8,090
9.9%
4,208
5.2
Women 70,988
3,196
4.5%
71,745
6,145
8.6%
2,950
4.1
Total 153,124
7,078
4.6%
153,616
14,235
9.3%
7,158
4.6
Youth (16-24)
22,217
2,342
10.5%
20,926
3,736
17.9%
1,394
7.3
Adult
(25-54) 104,353
3,904 3.7% 102,278
8,415 8.2% 4,511 4.5
White only
124,935
5,143
4.1%
124,726
10,378
8.3%
5,235
4.2
Black only
17,496
1,445
8.3%
17,840
2,835
15.9%
1,390
7.6
Other 10,693
489
4.6%
11,050
1,023
9.3%
533
4.7
Total 153,124
7,078
4.6%
153,616
14,235
9.3%
7,158
4.6
Hispanic 21,602
1,220
5.6%
22,767
2,755
12.1%
1,535
6.5
Non-Hispanic 131,522
5,858 4.5% 130,849
11,480 8.8% 5,623 4.3
Total 153,124
7,078
4.6%
153,616
14,235
9.3%
7,158
4.6
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
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Table A-2. Number of Workers Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment,
Averages of Monthly Data, July 2010 to June 2011
(numbers are in 1,000s)
Weeks
Number
Weeks
Number
Weeks
Number
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
Unemployed
50 13,024
76 2,429
99 9,467
51 24,603
77 7,256
100 12,612
52 966,704
78 150,456
102 1,780
53 23,568
79 4,489
103 1,592
54 5,478
80 2,281
104
669,952
More than 104 weeks
973,205
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
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Table A-3. Characteristics of the Unemployed, Averages of Monthly Data, July 2010 to June 2011
(numbers are in 1,000s)
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Number Unemployed by Duration
Unem-
Unemployment
Unem-
ployment
Characteristic Employed
ployed
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Rate
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Gender
Male
73,781 8,090 4,498 3,592 2,024 1,139 994 9.9% 55.6% 44.4% 25.0% 14.1% 12.3%
Female
65,599 6,145 3,538 2,608 1,380 778 665 8.6% 57.6% 42.4% 22.5% 12.7% 10.8%
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
Male
52.9% 56.8% 56.0% 57.9% 59.5% 59.4% 59.9%
Female
47.1% 43.2% 44.0% 42.1% 40.5% 40.6% 40.1%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age
16-24
17,190
3,736
2,622
1,115 473 241 217
17.9%
70.2%
29.8%
12.7% 6.4% 5.8%
25-34
30,385 3,248 1,880 1,369 720 396 347 9.7% 57.9% 42.1% 22.2% 12.2% 10.7%
35-44
30,475 2,523 1,316 1,207 680 377 325 7.6% 52.2% 47.8% 26.9% 14.9% 12.9%
45-54
33,003 2,644 1,261 1,383 819 462 398 7.4% 47.7% 52.3% 31.0% 17.5% 15.1%
55-64
21,874 1,630 744 886 565 347 293 6.9% 45.6% 54.4% 34.6% 21.3% 18.0%
65 and over
6,453 454 213 241 148
94
78 6.6% 46.9% 53.1% 32.5% 20.7% 17.1%
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
16-24
12.3% 26.2% 32.6% 18.0% 13.9% 12.6% 13.1%
25-34
21.8% 22.8% 23.4% 22.1% 21.2% 20.7% 20.9%
35-44
21.9% 17.7% 16.4% 19.5% 20.0% 19.7% 19.6%
45-54
23.7% 18.6% 15.7% 22.3% 24.1% 24.1% 24.0%
55-64
15.7% 11.5% 9.3% 14.3% 16.6% 18.1% 17.7%
65 and over
4.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.9% 4.3% 4.9% 4.7%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
CRS-22
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Number Unemployed by Duration
Unem-
Unemployment
Unem-
ployment
Characteristic Employed
ployed
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Rate
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Education
Less than high school
12,932 2,919 1,804 1,114 586 345 321 18.4% 61.8% 38.2% 20.1% 11.8% 11.0%
High school degree
39,052 5,031 2,772 2,259 1,253 711 624 11.4% 55.1% 44.9% 24.9% 14.1% 12.4%
Some college or Associate’s
degree
40,826 3,955 2,169 1,786 976 536 443 8.8% 54.8% 45.2% 24.7% 13.5% 11.2%
Bachelor’s degree
30,295 1,742 972 770 433 238 197 5.4% 55.8% 44.2% 24.9% 13.7% 11.3%
Advanced or professional
degree
16,276 588 318 270 155
88
73 3.5% 54.2% 45.8% 26.4% 15.0% 12.4%
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
Less than high school
9.3% 20.5% 22.5% 18.0% 17.2% 18.0% 19.4%
High school degree
28.0% 35.3% 34.5% 36.4% 36.8% 37.1% 37.6%
Some college or Associate’s
degree
29.3% 27.8% 27.0% 28.8% 28.7% 27.9% 26.7%
Bachelor’s degree
21.7% 12.2% 12.1% 12.4% 12.7% 12.4% 11.9%
Advanced or professional
degree
11.7% 4.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Marital Status
Married
79,376 5,198 2,782 2,416 1,385 788 664 6.1% 53.5% 46.5% 26.6% 15.2% 12.8%
Widowed, divorced, or
separated
20,602 2,418 1,197 1,221 711 399 343 10.5% 49.5% 50.5% 29.4% 16.5% 14.2%
Never married
39,403 6,619 4,056 2,563 1,309 730 652 14.4% 61.3% 38.7% 19.8% 11.0% 9.8%
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
Married
56.9% 36.5% 34.6% 39.0% 40.7% 41.1% 40.0%
Widowed, divorced, or
separated
14.8% 17.0% 14.9% 19.7% 20.9% 20.8% 20.7%
Never married
28.3% 46.5% 50.5% 41.3% 38.4% 38.1% 39.3%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Race
White only
114,348 10,378 6,026 4,352 2,418 1,340 1,146 8.3% 58.1% 41.9% 23.3% 12.9% 11.0%
Black only
15,005 2,835 1,457 1,378 721 418 377 15.9% 51.4% 48.6% 25.4% 14.8% 13.3%
Other
10,027 1,023 553 469 265 159 136 9.3% 54.1% 45.9% 25.9% 15.5% 13.3%
CRS-23
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Number Unemployed by Duration
Unem-
Unemployment
Unem-
ployment
Characteristic Employed
ployed
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Rate
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
White only
82.0% 72.9% 75.0% 70.2% 71.0% 69.9% 69.1%
Black only
10.8% 19.9% 18.1% 22.2% 21.2% 21.8% 22.7%
Other
7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 7.6% 7.8% 8.3% 8.2%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Hispanic Origin
Hispanic
20,012 2,755 1,657 1,097 595 333 303 12.1% 60.2% 39.8% 21.6% 12.1% 11.0%
Non-Hispanic
119,369 11,480 6,378 5,102 2,810 1,584 1,356 8.8% 55.6% 44.4% 24.5% 13.8% 11.8%
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
Hispanic
14.4% 19.4% 20.6% 17.7% 17.5% 17.4% 18.3%
Non-Hispanic
85.6% 80.6% 79.4% 82.3% 82.5% 82.6% 81.7%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Citizenship
Native-born, citizen
117,287 11,937 6,748 5,189 2,825 1,584 1,366 9.2% 56.5% 43.5% 23.7% 13.3% 11.4%
Foreign-born, naturalized
10,114 898 433 465 278 162 139 8.2% 48.2% 51.8% 31.0% 18.0% 15.5%
Foreign-born, non-citizen
11,980 1,400 855 545 301 171 154 10.5% 61.1% 38.9% 21.5% 12.2% 11.0%
Total
139,380 14,235 8,036 6,199 3,404 1,917 1,659 9.3% 56.5% 43.5% 23.9% 13.5% 11.7%
Native-born, citizen
84.1% 83.9% 84.0% 83.7% 83.0% 82.6% 82.3%
Foreign-born, naturalized
7.3% 6.3% 5.4% 7.5% 8.2% 8.5% 8.4%
Foreign-born, non-citizen
8.6% 9.8%
10.6% 8.8% 8.8% 8.9% 9.3%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
CRS-24
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Number Unemployed by Duration
Unem-
Unemployment
Unem-
ployment
Characteristic Employed
ployed
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Rate
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Industry
Agriculture, forestry, fishing,
and hunting
2,215 213
161 52 22 14 12
8.8%
75.4%
24.6%
10.5%
6.4%
5.7%
Mining
770
63 35
28
14
5
4 7.5% 55.2% 44.8% 22.5% 8.2% 6.7%
Construction
8,990 1,790 992 798 467 267 236 16.6% 55.4% 44.6% 26.1% 14.9% 13.2%
Manufacturing
14,267 1,527 716 811 504 286 242 9.7% 46.9% 53.1% 33.0% 18.7% 15.9%
Wholesale and retail trade
19,757 1,952 1,073 879 485 272 232 9.0% 55.0% 45.0% 24.8% 13.9% 11.9%
Transportation and utilities
7,124 551 277 273 155
81
69 7.2% 50.3% 49.7% 28.1% 14.6% 12.6%
Information
3,147 281 137 144
85
40
32 8.2% 48.7% 51.3% 30.3% 14.1% 11.5%
Financial activities
9,256 650 310 340 183 100
81 6.6% 47.6% 52.4% 28.2% 15.4% 12.4%
Professional and business
services
15,540 1,620 908 712 401 229 186 9.4% 56.1% 43.9% 24.8% 14.1% 11.5%
Educational and health
services
31,939 1,735 1,040 695 359 196 169 5.2% 59.9% 40.1% 20.7% 11.3% 9.8%
Leisure and hospitality
12,732 1,668 1,031 637 317 174 158 11.6% 61.8% 38.2% 19.0% 10.4% 9.5%
Other services
6,731 572 322 250 140
89
82 7.8% 56.3% 43.7% 24.4% 15.6% 14.2%
Public administration
6,911 301 171 130
64
36
33 4.2% 56.7% 43.3% 21.3% 11.9% 11.0%
Total
139,380 12,922 7,173 5,750 3,195 1,789 1,536 8.5% 55.5% 44.5% 24.7% 13.8% 11.9%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing,
and hunting
1.6%
1.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
Mining
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
Construction
6.5%
13.9%
13.8%
13.9%
14.6%
14.9%
15.3%
Manufacturing
10.2%
11.8%
10.0%
14.1%
15.8%
16.0%
15.8%
Wholesale and retail trade
14.2%
15.1%
15.0%
15.3%
15.2%
15.2%
15.1%
Transportation and utilities
5.1%
4.3%
3.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.5%
4.5%
Information
2.3%
2.2%
1.9%
2.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.1%
Financial activities
6.6%
5.0%
4.3%
5.9%
5.7%
5.6%
5.3%
Professional and business
services
11.1%
12.5%
12.7%
12.4%
12.5%
12.8%
12.1%
Educational and health
services
22.9%
13.4%
14.5%
12.1%
11.2%
11.0%
11.0%
Leisure and hospitality
9.1%
12.9%
14.4%
11.1%
9.9%
9.7%
10.3%
Other services
4.8%
4.4%
4.5%
4.3%
4.4%
5.0%
5.3%
Public administration
5.0%
2.3%
2.4%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
CRS-25
Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration Of
Number Unemployed by Duration
Unem-
Unemployment
Unem-
ployment
Characteristic Employed
ployed
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Rate
0-26
Over 26 Over 52 Over 78 Over 99
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Occupation
Management, business, and
financial
21,062 1,092 532 560 323 183 144 4.9% 48.7% 51.3% 29.5% 16.8% 13.1%
Professional and related
30,951 1,391 788
603
339
181
155 4.3%
56.6%
43.4%
24.4%
13.0%
11.1%
Service
24,655 2,778 1,677
1,101
558
309
278 10.1%
60.4%
39.6%
20.1%
11.1%
10.0%
Sales and related
15,362 1,539 839
700
377
209
178 9.1%
54.5%
45.5%
24.5%
13.6%
11.6%
Office and administrative
support
17,901 1,697 898 799 438 254 210 8.7% 52.9% 47.1% 25.8% 15.0% 12.3%
Farming, fishing, and forestry 995 182 144
38
16
8
7 15.5%
79.0%
21.0%
8.8%
4.5%
4.1%
Construction and extraction
7,087 1,595 905
690
403
220
197
18.4%
56.7%
43.3%
25.3%
13.8%
12.4%
Installation, maintenance,
and repair
4,885 448 231 217 132
77
65 8.4% 51.5% 48.5% 29.4% 17.1% 14.5%
Production
8,154 1,110 565
545
337
196
169
12.0%
50.9%
49.1%
30.3%
17.7%
15.3%
Transportation and material
8,328 1,090 595 495 274 152 132 11.6% 54.6% 45.4% 25.1% 13.9% 12.1%
moving
Total 139,380 12,922 7,173
5,750
3,195
1,789
1,536 8.5%
55.5%
44.5%
24.7%
13.8%
11.9%
Management, business, and
15.1%
8.5%
7.4%
9.7%
10.1%
10.2%
9.3%
financial
Professional and related
22.2%
10.8%
11.0%
10.5%
10.6%
10.1%
10.1%
Service
17.7%
21.5%
23.4%
19.1%
17.5%
17.3%
18.1%
Sales and related
11.0%
11.9%
11.7%
12.2%
11.8%
11.7%
11.6%
Office and administrative
support
12.8%
13.1%
12.5%
13.9%
13.7%
14.2%
13.6%
Farming, fishing, and forestry 0.7% 1.4% 2.0%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
Construction and extraction
5.1%
12.3%
12.6%
12.0%
12.6%
12.3%
12.9%
Installation, maintenance,
and repair
3.5%
3.5%
3.2%
3.8%
4.1%
4.3%
4.2%
Production
5.9%
8.6%
7.9%
9.5%
10.5%
11.0%
11.0%
Transportation and material
moving
6.0%
8.4%
8.3%
8.6%
8.6%
8.5%
8.6%
Total 100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: CRS analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Data are not seasonally adjusted.
CRS-26
The Trend in Long-Term Unemployment
Confidence Levels
Estimates based on survey responses from a sample of households have two kinds of error:
nonsampling and sampling. Examples of nonsampling error include information that is
misreported and errors made in processing collected information. Sampling error occurs because
a sample, and not the entire population, of households is surveyed. The difference between an
estimate based on a sample of households and the actual population value is known as sampling
error. When using sample data, researchers typically construct confidence intervals around
population estimates. Confidence intervals provide information about the accuracy of estimated
values. With a 90% confidence interval and repeated samples from a population, 90% of intervals
will include the average estimate of a population characteristic.
Author Contact Information
Gerald Mayer
Analyst in Labor Policy
gmayer@crs.loc.gov, 7-7815
Congressional Research Service
27