Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar August 2019 Elections
Updated July 5, 2019
Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar August 2019
Elections
Guatemala held national elections for president, the entire
system (2006-2008) during the Óscar Berger
158-seat congress, 340 mayors, and other local posts on
administration. Over the past 20 years, he has run for
June 16, 2019. The list of candidates on the ballot was
president four times with four different parties. In 2010, the
finalized one week before voting. Candidates were still
CICIG and the attorney general’s office charged him with
being ruled ineligible—some due to corruption
participating in extrajudicial killings. He was acquitted in
allegations—and appealing rulings in early June. Elements
2012 after the courts determined that the case against him
of the government allowed some candidates to run and
lacked sufficient evidence.
impeded the registrations of others. Such uncertainty likely
will lead many to question the outcome.
UNE won the largest share of congressional seats, but with
44 out of 160 seats, it will still lack a majority. Fifteen
Since none of the 19 presidential candidates won the first
parties split the other seats, indicating political gridlock is
round with more than 50% of the vote, the top two
likely to continue and reform likely will be limited.
candidates will compete in a second round on August 11.
The winner is due to be inaugurated in January 2020. Some
Guatemala 2019 Presidential Candidates:
7.6 million Guatemalans have registered to vote in this
Determining Who Was Eligible
year’s elections.
Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is an
important part of Guatemala’s democracy, as it organizes
Corruption is once again a primary concern for voters. In
all electoral contests and enforces the country’s electoral
response to public outcry over past illegal campaign
rules. Although it is an independent government institution,
financing and other electoral crimes, Guatemala adopted
the TSE has been subject to political pressure and threats
electoral law reforms in 2016. Eleven of Guatemala’s 27
this year from multiple sources. According to various
parties face charges of illicit or unreported campaign
reports, political and business leaders have bribed and
financing, and several candidates face judicial proceedings.
intimidated members of the TSE and other government
Twenty-four parties registered presidential candidates.
offices and tribunals to influence the results of the elections.
Registered candidates have immunity from prosecution.
The TSE eliminated two of the three most popular
candidates, Thelma Aldana and Zury Rios, from the race.
President Jimmy Morales will not be running for reelection,
since the Guatemalan constitution limits presidents to one
term. But Morales himself is being investigated for
Guatemala 2019 Electoral Calendar
corruption and has taken actions that appear to have
JANUARY 18: Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announces
advantaged political parties and criminal organizations
general elections
linked in corruption. The president fired some reformist
JANUARY 19: Start of candidate registration through the
officials, for example, and chose not to renew the
TSE’s Citizen Registry
International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala
(CICIG), which helps Guatemalan institutions enforce
FEBRUARY 19: Last day for Guatemalans to register to
campaign finance laws. Weakening reform and
vote
enforcement efforts could further enable drug cartels and
MARCH 17: Last day to register candidates
other criminal organizations to continue financing
MARCH 18: Official start date for campaign
politicians.
JUNE 14: End of campaign
Results of First Round
JUNE 16: General elections
The controversial disqualification of several candidates
AUGUST 11: Runoff elections
contributed to low voter turnout. On July 1, a recount
Source: Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
confirmed that Sandra Torres of the center-left National
Unity of Hope (UNE) party won 26% of the popular vote
Aldana, a former attorney general, is internationally
and Alejandro Giammattei of the right-wing Vamos party
renowned for pursuing corruption cases against wealthy and
won just over 14%; they are to go to the second round.
powerful business and political figures, including former
Torres lost in the second round in 2015, and a recent poll
presidents Otto Pérez Molina and Álvaro Colom. By many
showed 30% of voters said they would never vote for her.
accounts, those opposed to her anti-corruption platform
applied pressure to prevent her candidacy with the center-
Torres, a longtime politician and former first lady, has been
left Semilla Movement.
implicated in illegal campaign financing in the 2015
elections. Giammattei was the director of the penitentiary
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Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar August 2019 Elections
In March, members of other parties stalled Aldana’s
the cartel cabinet positions and unrestricted transport of
registration by pressuring a controller’s office to invalidate
illicit drugs across Guatemala if he won.
her accounts certificate, an electoral requirement.
Opponents alleged that Aldana stole government funds
Guatemala’s 2019 electoral campaigns have included
while serving as attorney general, a claim she denies. A
violence at all levels. According to U.S. officials, Estrada
judge filed an arrest warrant against her, but public
plotted to assassinate political opponents, including Thelma
prosecutors are investigating the judge for allegedly
Aldana, to win the presidency. As of April 2, two mayoral
accepting millions of dollars in bribes in exchange for
candidates and one local candidate had been murdered.
issuing the warrant. On April 1, the TSE blocked Aldana’s
Other violence has included online hate speech, attacks, and
registration, citing the arrest warrant and the invalid
death threats.
accounts certificate. Aldana appealed the TSE’s decision,
but the Constitutional Court upheld its ruling. Aldana
Congressional Concerns and Actions
remains in neighboring El Salvador, where she fled because
Over the years, Congress has authorized assistance to
of death threats.
Guatemala and placed conditions on it to address a range of
concerns, including strengthening democratic institutions;
The TSE also rejected Zury Ríos’s registration, citing a
good governance and respect for human rights; promoting
constitutional prohibition against coup leaders and their
equitable development; and curbing corruption, crime, and
relatives seeking public office. Ríos is the daughter of the
illegal migration.
late former coup leader Efraín Ríos Montt. On May 13, the
Constitutional Court upheld the TSE’s decision. Ríos has
The outcome of the June elections could heighten those
appealed to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.
concerns. For example, officials elected with help from
vested interests could contribute to further corruption,
The Constitutional Court also withdrew Edwin Escobar’s
draining public resources and abetting drug trafficking and
and Mauricio Radford’s registration, allowing Attorney
other crimes. When CICIG’s support ends in September,
General María Consuelo Porras to investigate the latter’s
Guatemalan institutions may investigate and prosecute
alleged electoral crimes. The TSE revoked Mario Estrada’s
fewer such crimes. Related insecurity and violence could in
candidacy after his arrest in April.
turn contribute to additional emigration.
The Constitutional Court was expected to decide before the
Questions about the election’s legitimacy could raise
first round whether the charges against Torres for illicit
concerns about further instability. If observers from the
campaign financing warranted lifting her immunity from
Organization of American States or other organizations find
prosecution, but it postponed the decision because it lacked
that the elections are not free and fair, the new government
sufficient time to review her case. The court still has not
could be seen as illegitimate. If many citizens question the
decided Torres’s case, and she remains on the ballot.
election’s credibility, public confidence in the government
likely will decline further, and protests and demands for
Election Financing by Private, Criminal
political reform are likely to continue.
Organizations and Efforts to Stop It
The attorney general and the TSE, with CICIG’s support,
Some Members of the U.S. Congress have proposed bills to
have investigated political parties, members of Congress,
pressure Guatemala to strengthen democratic institutions
and the president for illicit campaign financing. Their work
and combat corruption. Options include imposing sanctions
shows, says an April 2019 New York Times article, that
on Guatemalan officials or private citizens found guilty of
“private groups have hijacked many of the state’s functions
corruption. Current bills include proposals to fund programs
to enrich themselves.”
in FY2020 to strengthen the rule of law; combat corruption;
defend human rights; counter violence, crime, and human
CICIG reported in 2015 that government contractors
smugglers; and address economic development, poverty,
financed more than 50% of all political campaigns, business
and the root causes of migration.
chambers financed about 25%, and organized crime—
especially drug trafficking rings—financed the remaining
Finally, the House Appropriations Committee–reported
25%. CICIG also concluded that impunity for electoral
version of the FY2020 foreign aid appropriations measure,
crimes is 95-100%. Since 2016, the TSE has dissolved three
H.R. 2839 (H.Rept. 116-78), would provide aid to
major parties and suspended President Morales’s party, the
Guatemala, including $93 million for development, under
National Convergence Front (FCN-Nación), for campaign
the U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America. The
finance violations. The TSE suspended the cancellation
bill would withhold portions of aid for the government until
process for FCN and five other parties in January 2019 for
the Secretary of State certifies that it is taking steps to
the duration of the electoral process.
combat corruption; implement reforms to increase
transparency; protect the right of political opposition
Powerful criminal organizations have also been involved in
parties, journalists, human rights defenders, and other civil
the 2019 presidential election. U.S. authorities arrested
society activists to operate without interference; and meet
Mario Estrada, a presidential candidate with ties to
other goals.
President Morales, on April 17, 2019, in Miami, Florida.
The U.S. Department of Justice charged him with
Maureen Taft-Morales, Specialist in Latin American
conspiracy to traffic drugs in exchange for campaign
Affairs
funding from Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel. He allegedly offered
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Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar August 2019 Elections
IF11249
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