June 11, 2019
Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar June 2019 Elections

Guatemala is scheduled to hold national elections for
president, the entire 158-seat Congress, 340 mayors, and
Guatemala 2019 Electoral Calendar
other local posts on June 16, 2019. The list of candidates on
JANUARY 18: Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announces
the ballot was finalized one week before voting. Candidates
general elections
were still being ruled ineligible—some due to corruption
JANUARY 19: Start of candidate registration through the
allegations—and appealing rulings in early June. Elements
TSE’s Citizen Registry
of the government allowed some candidates to run and
impeded the registrations of others. Such uncertainty will
FEBRUARY 19: Last day for Guatemalans to register to
likely lead many to question the outcome.
vote
MARCH 17: Last day to register candidates
If none of the 19 presidential candidates wins the first round
MARCH 18: Official start date for campaign
with more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates will
JUNE 14: End of campaign
compete in a second round on August 11. Some 7.6 million
Guatemalans have registered to vote in this year’s elections.
JUNE 16: General elections
AUGUST 11: Runoff, if necessary
Corruption is once again a primary concern for voters. In
Source: Supreme Electoral Tribunal.
response to public outcry over past illegal campaign
financing and other electoral crimes, Guatemala adopted
electoral law reforms in 2016. Eleven of Guatemala’s 27
Aldana, a former attorney general, is internationally
parties face charges of illicit or unreported campaign
renowned for pursuing corruption cases against wealthy and
financing, and several candidates face judicial proceedings.
powerful business and political figures, including former
Twenty-four parties registered presidential candidates.
presidents Otto Pérez Molina and Álvaro Colom. By many
Registered candidates have immunity from prosecution.
accounts, those opposed to her anti-corruption platform
applied pressure to prevent her candidacy with the center-
President Jimmy Morales will not be running for reelection,
left Semilla Movement.
since the Guatemalan constitution limits presidents to one
term. But Morales himself is being investigated for
In March, members of other parties stalled Aldana’s
corruption and has taken actions that appear to have
registration by pressuring a controller’s office to invalidate
advantaged political parties and criminal organizations
her accounts certificate, an electoral requirement.
linked in corruption. The president fired some reformist
Opponents alleged that Aldana stole government funds
officials, for example, and chose not to renew the
while serving as attorney general, a claim she denies. A
International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala
judge filed an arrest warrant against her, but public
(CICIG), which helps Guatemalan institutions enforce
prosecutors are investigating the judge for allegedly
campaign finance laws. Weakening reform and
accepting millions of dollars in bribes in exchange for
enforcement efforts could further enable drug cartels and
issuing the warrant. On April 1, the TSE blocked Aldana’s
other criminal organizations to continue financing
registration, citing the arrest warrant and the invalid
politicians.
accounts certificate. Aldana appealed the TSE’s decision,
but the Constitutional Court upheld its ruling. Aldana
Guatemala 2019 Presidential Candidates: remains in neighboring El Salvador, where she fled because
Determining Who Is Eligible
of death threats.
Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is an
important part of Guatemala’s democracy, as it organizes
The TSE also rejected Zury Ríos’s registration, citing a
all electoral contests and enforces the country’s electoral
constitutional prohibition against coup leaders and their
rules. Although it is an independent government institution,
relatives seeking public office. Ríos is the daughter of the
the TSE has been subject to political pressure and threats
deceased former coup leader Efraín Ríos Montt. On May
this year from multiple sources. According to various
13, the Constitutional Court upheld the TSE’s decision.
reports, political and business leaders have bribed and
Ríos has appealed to the Inter-American Court of Human
intimidated members of the TSE and other government
Rights.
offices and tribunals to influence the results of the elections.
The TSE eliminated two of the three most popular
In addition to Aldana and Ríos, the Constitutional Court
candidates, Thelma Aldana and Zury Rios, from the race.
also withdrew Edwin Escobar’s and Mauricio Radford’s
registration, allowing Attorney General María Consuelo
Porras to investigate the latter’s alleged electoral crimes.
The TSE revoked Mario Estrada’s candidacy after his arrest
in April.
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Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar June 2019 Elections
Many experts agree that the presidency is former first lady
Aldana, to win the presidency. As of April 2, two mayoral
Sandra Torres’s to lose. Torres, who currently leads the
candidates and one local candidate had been murdered.
polls, has been awaiting a decision from the Constitutional
Other violence has included online hate speech, attacks, and
Court to determine whether the charges against her for
death threats.
illicit campaign financing warranted lifting her immunity
from prosecution. The court was expected to decide
Congressional Concerns and Actions
Torres’s case on May 15, 2019, but it postponed the
Over the years, Congress has authorized assistance to
decision because it lacked sufficient time to review Torres’s
Guatemala and placed conditions on it to address a range of
case. The court has still not decided Torres’s case, and she
concerns, including strengthening democratic institutions;
remains on the ballot.
good governance and respect for human rights; promoting
equitable development; and curbing corruption, crime, and
Alejandro Giammattei of the right-wing Vamos party may
illegal migration.
be able to challenge Torres but would probably need the
backing of others vying for second place to force a runoff.
The outcome of the June elections could heighten those
Many argue that Giammattei is too unpopular to rally
concerns. For example, officials elected with help from
enough support around his candidacy. Giammattei was the
vested interests could contribute to further corruption,
director of the penitentiary system (2006-2008) during the
draining public resources and abetting drug trafficking and
Óscar Berger administration. Over the past 20 years, he has
other crimes. When CICIG’s support ends in September,
run for president four times with four different parties. In
Guatemalan institutions may investigate and prosecute
2010, the CICIG and the attorney general’s office charged
fewer such crimes. Related insecurity and violence could in
him with participating in extrajudicial killings. He spent 10
turn contribute to additional emigration.
months in prison but was acquitted in 2012 after the courts
determined that the case against him lacked sufficient
Questions about the election’s legitimacy could raise
evidence.
concerns about further instability. If observers from the
Organization of American States (OAS) or other
Election Financing by Private, Criminal
organizations find that the elections are not free and fair,
Organizations and Efforts to Stop It
the new government could be seen as illegitimate.
The attorney general and the TSE, with CICIG’s support,
Depending on the severity of the findings, OAS responses
have investigated political parties, members of Congress,
could range from pressing Guatemala to strengthen the
and the president for illicit campaign financing. Their work
democratic process to urging they re-hold elections.
shows, says an April 2019 New York Times article, that
“private groups have hijacked many of the state’s functions
Some Members of the U.S. Congress have proposed bills to
to enrich themselves.”
pressure Guatemala to strengthen democratic institutions
and combat corruption. Options include imposing sanctions
CICIG reported in 2015 that government contractors
on Guatemalan officials or private citizens found guilty of
financed more than 50% of all political campaigns, business
corruption. Current bills include proposals to fund programs
chambers financed about 25%, and organized crime—
in FY2020 to strengthen the rule of law; combat corruption;
especially drug trafficking rings—financed the remaining
defend human rights; counter violence, crime, and human
25%. CICIG also concluded that impunity for electoral
smugglers; and address economic development, poverty,
crimes is 95-100%. Since 2016, the TSE has dissolved three
and the root causes of migration.
major parties and suspended President Morales’s party, the
National Convergence Front (FCN-Nación), for campaign
Finally, the House Appropriations Committee–reported
finance violations. The TSE suspended the cancellation
version of the FY2020 foreign aid appropriations measure,
process for FCN and five other parties in January 2019 for
H.R. 2839 (H.Rept. 116-78), would provide aid to
the duration of the electoral process.
Guatemala, including $93 million for development, under
the U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America. The
Powerful criminal organizations have also been involved in
bill would withhold portions of aid for the government until
the 2019 presidential election. U.S. authorities arrested
the Secretary of State certifies that it is taking steps to
Mario Estrada, a presidential candidate with party and
combat corruption; implement reforms to increase
personal ties to President Morales, on April 17, 2019, in
transparency; protect the right of political opposition
Miami, Florida. The U.S. Department of Justice charged
parties, journalists, human rights defenders, and other civil
him with conspiracy to traffic drugs in exchange for
society activists to operate without interference; and meet
campaign funding from Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel. He
other goals.
allegedly offered the cartel cabinet positions and
unrestricted transport of illicit drugs across Guatemala if he
Maureen Taft-Morales, Specialist in Latin American
won.
Affairs
Guatemala’s 2019 electoral campaigns have included
IF11249
violence at all levels. According to U.S. officials, Estrada
plotted to assassinate political opponents, including Thelma

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Guatemala: Corruption, Uncertainty Mar June 2019 Elections



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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11249 · VERSION 1 · NEW

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