Contents

• Overview
• Political Situation
• Reconciliation Efforts and Obstacles
• Military and Security Situation
• ANDSF Development and Deployment
• U.S. Troop Levels and Authorities
• Regional Dynamics: Pakistan and Other Neighbors
• Revised Regional Approach
• Economy and U.S. Aid
• Outlook

Summary

Afghanistan has been a central U.S. foreign policy concern since 2001, when the United States, in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, led a military campaign against Al Qaeda and the Taliban government that harbored and supported it. In the intervening 17 years, the United States has suffered around 2,400 fatalities in Afghanistan (including 13 in 2018 to date) and Congress has appropriated more than $132 billion for reconstruction there. In that time, an elected Afghan government has replaced the Taliban, and nearly every measure of human development has improved, although future prospects of those measures remain mixed. The fundamental objective of U.S. efforts in Afghanistan is "preventing any further attacks on the United States by terrorists enjoying safe haven or support in Afghanistan."

While U.S. military officials express greater optimism about the course of the war in 2018, other policymakers and analysts have described the war against the insurgency—which controls or contests nearly half of the country's territory, by Pentagon estimates—as a stalemate or worse. Furthermore, the Afghan government faces broad public criticism for its inability to combat corruption, deliver security, alleviate rising ethnic tensions, and develop the economy. Afghanistan held parliamentary elections in October 2018, but they were marred by technical, logistical, and security problems. A planned presidential election, now scheduled for AprilJuly 2019, could further inflame political tensions. Meanwhile, a series of developments insince July 2018 may signal greater U.S. urgency to begin peace talks to bring about a negotiated political settlement, the stated goal of U.S. policy, via direct talks with the Taliban.

For background information and analysis on the history of congressional engagement with Afghanistan and U.S. policy there, as well as a summary of recent Afghanistan-related legislative proposals, see CRS Report R45329, Afghanistan: Legislation in the 115th Congress, by [author name scrubbed].

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Overview

The U.S. and Afghan governments, along with partner countries, remain engaged in combat with a resilient Taliban-led insurgency. While U.S. military officials maintain that Afghan forces are "resilient" against the Taliban,¹ by some measures insurgents are in control of or contesting more territory today than at any point since 2001.² The conflict also involves an array of other armed groups, including active affiliates of both Al Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS, ISIL, or by the Arabic acronym Da'esh). Since early 2015, the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan, known as "Resolute Support Mission" (RSM), has focused on training, advising, and assisting Afghan government forces; combat operations by U.S. counterterrorism forces, along with some partner forces, also continue and have increased since 2017. These two "complementary missions" make up Operation Freedom's Sentinel (OFS).³

The United States has contributed more than $132 billion in various forms of aid to Afghanistan over the past decade and a half, from building up and sustaining the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) to economic development. This assistance has increased Afghan government capacity, but prospects for stability in Afghanistan appear distant. President Donald Trump announced what he termed "a new strategy" for Afghanistan and South Asia in August 2017 that prioritizes "fighting to win," rejects "nation building," and includes a stronger line against Pakistan, a larger role for India, no set timetables, expanded targeting authorities for U.S. forces, and additional troops.⁴ It is unclear how the strategy has impacted the fight against Taliban forces, which continue to hold swaths of Afghanistan's vast rural areas while carrying out large-scale assaults on urban areas; two provincial centers have been briefly overrun by insurgents in 2018Taliban forces continue to hold swaths of Afghanistan's vast rural areas while carrying out large-scale assaults on urban areas; two provincial centers were briefly overrun by insurgents in 2018. President Donald Trump announced what he termed "a new strategy" for Afghanistan and South Asia in August 2017, though reports in early 2019 indicate that the President may be contemplating ordering the withdrawal of some U.S. forces from the country. Efforts by the Afghan government and others to mitigate and eventually end the conflict through peace talks have been complicated by ethnic divisions, political rivalries, and the unsettled military situation, though a series of developments in 2018, including a nationwide cease-fire and reports of direct U.S.-Taliban talks, may portend greater progress on that front.

The Afghan government faces domestic criticism for its failure to guarantee security and prevent insurgent gains, and for internal divisions that have spurred the formation of new political opposition coalitions. In September 2014, the United States brokered a compromise "national unity government" to address the disputed 2014 presidential election, in which both candidates claimed victory. Subsequent parliamentary and district council elections were postponed. After years of delay, those parliamentary elections were held in October 2018, but were marred by violence and administrative problems that may portend trouble for the April 2019 presidential election (originally scheduled for April, now delayed until July). The Afghan government has made some notable progress in reducing corruption and implementing its budgetary commitments, and almost all measures of economic and human development have improved since the U.S.-led overthrow of the Taliban in 2001. Some U.S. policymakers still hope that the country's largely underdeveloped natural resources and/or geographic position at the crossroads of future global trade routes might improve the economic life of the country, and, by extension, its social and political dynamics as well. Nevertheless, Afghanistan's economic and political outlook remains uncertain, if not negative, in light of ongoing hostilities.

Political Situation

The leadership partnership (referred to as the national unity government) brokered by the United States in the wake of the disputed 2014 election by the United States between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Abdullah Abdullah has encountered challenges but remains intact.⁵4 However, a trend in Afghan society and governance that worries some observers is increasing fragmentation along ethnic and ideological lines.⁶lines.⁵ Such fractures have long existed in Afghanistan but were relatively muted during Hamid Karzai's presidency.⁷6 These divisions are sometimes seen as a driving force behind some of the political upheavals that have challenged Ghani's government:

• Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum, who has criticized Ghani's government for favoring Pashtuns at the expense of the Uzbek minority Dostum claims to represent, left Afghanistan for Turkey in May 2017. Dostum's departure came in the wake of accusations that he engineered the kidnapping and assault of a political rival, prompting speculation that his departure was an attempt to avoid facing justice in Afghanistan.⁸7 Dostum returned to Afghanistan in July 2018, quelling protests by his supporters; he remains under indictment but no legal proceedings against him have taken place.⁹ 
• In May 2017, representatives of several ethnic parties, all of them senior government officials, visited Dostum and announced from Ankara the formation of a new political coalition termed the Coalition for the Salvation of Afghanistan (or Ankara Coalition).¹⁰ The group called on President Ghani to implement political reforms and introduce a less-centralized decisionmaking process.¹¹8 
• Ghani's December 2017 dismissal of Atta Mohammad Noor, the powerful governor of the northern province of Balkh who defied Ghani by remaining in office for several months before resigning in March 2018, was another sign of serious political divisions, possibly along ethnic lines.¹² Noor is one of the mostmore prominent members of the Jamiat-e-Islami party, which is seen to represent the country's Tajik minority.¹³
• Leaders of the Ankara Coalition9 A number of prominent national leaders, including Dostum and Noor, launched an electoral alliance called the Grand National Coalition of Afghanistan in July 2018; Karzai also announced his support for the coalition. One analyst speculates that while the coalition represents a real political threat to Ghani, it is a "divided alliance of historic rivals without a unified vision for Afghanistan's future" and "will likely devolve into disunity."¹⁴

10After multiple delays, elections for the 249-seat Wolesi Jirga (the lower house of Afghanistan's bicameral legislature) were held in October 2018. District council elections, originally scheduled to take place at the same time, were delayed due to a lack of candidates.¹⁵11 The elections were preceded by contention among electoral commissioners and an ethnically charged dispute over electronic identity cards.¹⁶12 Various technical and logistical challenges have exposed the Independent Election Commission (IEC) to widespread criticism, with one observer describing the process as a "triumph of administrative chaos."¹⁷13

Instability marred the election results as well: elections were held a week late in Kandahar and indefinitely postponed in Ghazni, and hundreds of polling stations in areas outside of the government's control were closed.¹⁸14 Additionally, 10 candidates were assassinated during the campaign and dozens of civilians were killed and hundreds wounded in election-day violence.¹⁹15 Still, most reports indicated at least some measure of voter enthusiasm, especially in urban areas; turnout was estimated at around 4 million of 9 million registered voters. Afghanistan scholar Barnett Rubin observed, "The main obstacle to democracy in Afghanistan is not the willingness of the people to participate, but the capacity of the state to make their participation meaningful."²⁰ As of December 2018, preliminary results for only some provinces have been released, as disputes between electoral bodies continue over results in other areas, including Kabul province.²¹As of January 2019, preliminary results for only some provinces have been released, as disputes between electoral bodies continue over results in other areas, including Kabul province.¹⁶ The presidential election is now scheduled for July 2019; 5 candidates have registered as of mid-January. The IEC announced in December 2018 a delay of three months from the original date of April 2019, citing logistical and budgetary difficulties. It is unclear to what extent, if any, that delay is related to ongoing U.S. efforts to jumpstart negotiations.¹⁷

Reconciliation Efforts and Obstacles

The U.S. and Afghan governments, along with various neighboring states and other international actors, have for years engaged in efforts to bring about a political settlement with insurgents.²²18 A settlement is likely to require political compromises on issues such as women's rights and the Afghan constitution.²³ The Obama Administration backed reconciliation with the stipulation that any settlement be Afghan-led and require insurgent leaders to (1) cease fighting, (2) accept the Afghan constitution, and (3) sever any ties to Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.²⁴ In President Donald Trump's19 In his August 2017 speech laying out a new strategy for Afghanistan, hePresident Trump referred to a "political settlement" as an outcome of an "effective military effort," but did not elaborate onstate what U.S. goals or conditions might be for this putative political process.

In 2018, a number of developments suggest potential progress toward peace talks. In February, President Ghani offered direct talks with the Taliban "without preconditions," though the Taliban effectively rejected his overture.²⁵20 Ghani followed up on that offer by declaring a unilateral, nationwide cease-fire in June. The Taliban reciprocated, leading to a three-day cease-fire during which Taliban fighters and Afghan forces socialized, prayed together, and visited areas controlled by the other.²⁶21 A grassroots, nationwide series of peace marches and demonstrations also signaled popular support for a cessation of hostilities.²⁷22 However, the Taliban effectively rejected a second, conditional three-month cease-fire offered by the Afghan government in August 2018.

One analyst, citing Taliban sources, suggests that the Taliban assault on Ghazni (more below) may have been intended to "push back against any impression that U.S. military action was forcing [the Taliban] into negotiations."²⁸ U.S. officials have indicated that dialogue between Taliban figures and Kabul representatives "is occurring off the stage."²⁹ It is unclear how receptive the Taliban, or elements thereof, might be to such negotiations.³⁰

While the Taliban have long expressed a willingness to negotiate directly with the United States,³¹23 the official U.S. position for years has beenwas that the Taliban can only negotiate with the Afghan government in an "Afghan-led, Afghan-owned" process.³² However, reports in 2018 indicate that Trump Administration officials have already held at least two24 However, since July 2018, Trump Administration officials have held several preliminary meetings with Taliban representatives in what would beamounts to a major shift in U.S. policy.³³25 In September 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo named former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad as a "special advisor" to serve as "the State Department's lead person" for reconciliation efforts.³⁴ Khalilzad has reportedly met with Taliban officials several times, including an October 2018 meeting in Doha, Qatar, that angeredin Doha, Qatar, in October, angering President Ghani, who was said to have been "blindsided."³⁵ For more, see CRS Insight IN10935, Momentum Toward Peace Talks in Afghanistan?, by [author name scrubbed].

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Military and Security Situation

Since early 2015, the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan of 16,200 troops, known as "Resolute Support Mission" (RSM), has focused on training, advising, and assisting Afghan government forces. Combat operations by U.S. forces also continue and have increased in number since 2017. These two "complementary missions" comprise Operation Freedom's Sentinel (OFS).³⁶27 There are around 14,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, of which approximately 8,500 are part of RSM. The remaining 7,700 troops of RSM come from 39 partner countries. In early 2018, Afghanistan became "CENTCOM's main effort" as U.S. operations in Iraq and Syria wound down.³⁷

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While U.S. commanders have asserted that the ANDSF performs well despite taking heavy casualties, insurgent forces retain, and by some measures are increasing, their ability to contest and hold territory (see Figure 1) and to launch high-profile attacks. and to launch high-profile attacks. The Taliban has made gains throughout the south, which is considered to be the group's stronghold, while showing signs of strength even outside their traditional bases of operations (see Figure 1). U.S. officials have often emphasized the Taliban's failure to capture a provincial capital since their week-long seizure of Kunduz city in northern Afghanistan in September 2015, but two capitals, Farah and Ghazni, have beenwere briefly overrun in 2018 so far (in May and August, respectively). Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis described the Taliban assault on Ghazni, which left hundreds dead, as a failure for the Taliban, saying "every time they take something ... they're unable to hold it."³⁸

General John Nicholson, the former U.S. commander in Afghanistan who was replaced by General Austin "Scott" Miller in August 2018, said at his final press briefing that "the strategy is working," citing "progress toward reconciliation,"³⁹ echoing encouraging assessments from other U.S. officials who cite the new strategy to justify their optimism.⁴⁰ Assessments by former officials are generally more negative; in February 2018, former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel called the situation in Afghanistan "worse than it's ever been."⁴¹ Others question the rationale of continued American military engagement; Karl Eikenbery, who served as the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and later as U.S. ambassador, said in August 2018 that "we continue to fight simply because we are there."⁴²29

Figure 1. Insurgent Activity in Afghanistan by District

Source: SIGAR October 30, 2018, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress.

Arguably complicating assessments that the situation in Afghanistan is a stalemate or improvingSince at least early 2017, U.S. military officials have publicly stated that the conflict is "largely stalemated."³⁰ Arguably complicating that assessment, the extent of territory controlled or contested by the Taliban has steadily grown in recent years by most measures (see Figure 2). In its October 30, 2018, report, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported that the share of districts under government control or influence has fallen to 55.5%; this figure, which marks a slight decline from previous reports, is the lowest recorded by SIGAR since tracking began in 2015; 12% of districts are under insurgent control or influence, with the remaining 32% contested.⁴³31

Figure 2. Control of Districts in Afghanistan

Source: SIGAR Quarterly Reports. Notes: The y-axis represents the number of districts, of which the U.S. government counts 407 in Afghanistan.

While the Taliban retain the ability to conduct high-profile urban attacks (including a string of such assaults in early 2018),⁴⁴, they also demonstrate considerable tactical capabilities.⁴⁵32 Due to the high levels of casualties inflicted by the Taliban, the Trump Administration has reportedly urged Afghan forces to pull out of some isolated outposts and rural areas.⁴⁶ The New York Times reported in September 201833 Reports indicate that ANDSF fatalities have averaged 30-40 a day in recent months, and President Ghani confirmed in November 2018 that Afghan forces had suffered over 28,000 fatalities since 2015.⁴⁷34 So-called "green on blue" attacks (insider attacks on U.S. and coalition forces by Afghan nationals) are a sporadic, but persistent, problem—three of the eightseveral U.S. servicemen killed in Afghanistan in 2018 died in such attacksdied in such attacks in 2018, as did 85 Afghan soldiers.⁴⁸35 In October 2018, General Miller was present at an attack inside the Kandahar governor's compound by a Taliban infiltrator who killed a number of provincial officials, including the powerful police chief Abdul Raziq; Miller was unhurt but another U.S. general was wounded.⁴⁹

36 The May 2016 killing of then-Taliban head Mullah Mansour by a U.S. strike demonstrated Taliban vulnerabilities to U.S. intelligence and combat capabilities, although it did not appear to have a measurable effect on Taliban effectiveness; it is unclear to what extent current leader Haibatullah Akhundzada exercises effective control over the group and how he is viewed within its ranks.⁵⁰37

Beyond the Taliban, a significant share of U.S. operations are aimed at the local Islamic State affiliate, known as Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP, also known as ISIS-K), although there is debate over the degree of threat the group poses.⁵¹38 ISKP and Taliban forces have sometimes fought over control of territory or because of political or other differences.⁵²39 In April 2018, a U.S. air strike killed the ISKP leader (himself a former Taliban commander) in northern Jowzjan province, which NATO described as "the main conduit for external support and foreign fighters from Central Asian states into Afghanistan."⁵³ American officials are reportedly tracking attempts by IS fighters to enter Afghanistan and use Afghan territory as a base from which to plan and conduct international operations.⁵⁴40 ISKP also has claimed responsibility for a number of large-scale attacks, including multiple bombingsmany targeting Afghanistan's ShiiteShia minority. The U.S. government reports that Al Qaeda is "seriously degraded" in Afghanistan and Pakistan but that remnants of the organization "continue to operate in remote locations ... that historically have been exploited as safe havens."⁵⁵

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ANDSF Development and Deployment

The effectiveness of the ANDSF is key to the security of Afghanistan. As of September 2018, SIGAR reports that Congress has appropriated at least $83.1 billion for Afghan security forces since 2002.⁵⁶42 Since 2014, the United States generally has provided around 75% of the estimated $5 billion a year to fund the ANDSF, with the balance coming from U.S. partners ($1 billion annually) and the Afghan government ($500 million). The FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) conference report authorizes and the FY2018 defense appropriation provides the Administration's request of $4.9 billion for the ANDSF. The Administration's FY2019 request seeks $5.2 billion for the ANDSF, and the House- and Senate-passed versions of the FY2019 NDAA (P.L. 115-232 ) would authorize the appropriation of the requested amount.

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Major concerns about the ANDSF raised by SIGAR, DOD, and others include

• absenteeism and the fact that about 35% of the force does not reenlist each year, and that the rapid recruitment might dilute the force's quality;⁵⁷ 
• widespread illiteracy within the force;⁵⁸44
• credible allegations of child sexual abuse and other potential human rights abuses;⁵⁹45 and
• casualty rates often described as unsustainable, including over 6,700 combat deaths in 2016 (up from 5,500 the previous year) and "about 10,000" in 2017.⁶⁰

.Key metrics related to ANDSF performance, such asincluding casualties, attrition rates, and personnel strength, were classified by U.S. Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) in response to a request from the Afghan government starting with the October 2017 SIGAR quarterly report. Although SIGAR previously published those metrics as part of its quarterly reports, they remain withheld.⁶¹46

U.S. Troop Levels and Authorities

At a February 2017 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, General Nicholson indicated that the United States had a "shortfall of a few thousand" troops that, if filled, could help break the "stalemate."⁶²47 A subsequent National Security Council-led review of U.S. strategy that included plans for more troops was reportedly held up due to disagreements within the Administration.⁶³48 In June 2017, President Trump delegated to Secretary Mattis the authority to set force levels, reportedly limited to around 3,500 additional troops, in June 2017; Secretary Mattis signed orders to deploy them in September 2017.⁶⁴49 Those additional forces (all of which are dedicated to RSM) have arrived in Afghanistan, putting the total number of U.S. troops in the country at around 14,000.⁶⁵

50 Some reports in late 2018 and early 2019 indicate that President Trump may be contemplating ordering the withdrawal of some U.S, forces from Afghanistan.⁵¹

Beyond additional troopsAdditionally, U.S. forces now have broader authority to operate independently of Afghan forces and "attack the enemy across the breadth and depth of the battle space," expanding the list of targets to include those related to "revenue streams, support infrastructure, training bases, infiltration lanes."⁶⁷53 This has been demonstrated in a series of operations, beginning in the fall of 2017, against Taliban drug labs. These operations, often highlighted by U.S. and Afghan officials, seek to degrade what is widely viewed as one of the Taliban's most important sources of revenue, namely the cultivation, production, and trafficking of narcotics.⁶⁸54 Some have questioned the impact of these strikes, especially in the context of the United States' overall counternarcotics strategy.⁶⁹55 In November 2018, the United Nations reported that the total area used for poppy cultivation in 2018 was 263,000 hectares, the second-highest level recorded since monitoring began in 1994. While this represents a drop of about 20% from the all-time high in 2017, the decrease is attributed to the severe drought affecting northern and western Afghanistan.⁷⁰

Pakistan and Other Neighbors

The United States has encouraged Afghanistan's neighbors to support a stable and economically viable Afghanistan. The neighbor considered most crucial to Afghanistan's security is Pakistan56 Regional Dynamics: Pakistan and Other Neighbors Regional dynamics, and the involvement of outside powers, are central to the conflict in Afghanistan. The neighboring state widely considered most important in this regard is Pakistan, which has played an active, and by many accounts negative, role in Afghan affairs for decades. President Trump has directly accused Pakistan of "housing the very terrorists that we are fighting."⁷¹57 Afghan leaders, along with U.S. military commanders, attribute much of the insurgency's power and longevity either directly or indirectly to Pakistan. President Ghani said in February 2018 that Pakistan was "the center of the Taliban."⁷²58 Experts debate the extent to which Pakistan is committed to Afghan stability or is attempting to exert control in Afghanistan through ties to insurgent groups, most notably the Haqqani Network, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) that has become an official, semiautonomous component of the Taliban.⁷³59 U.S. officials have repeatedly identified militant safe havens in Pakistan as a threat to security in Afghanistan, though some observers question the validity of that charge in light of the Taliban's increased territorial control within Afghanistan itself.⁷⁴

Pakistan sees Afghanistan as potentially providing strategic depth against India.⁷⁵ Pakistan may also60 Pakistan may view a weak and destabilized Afghanistan as preferable to a strong, unified Afghan state (particularly one led by a Pashtun-dominated government in Kabul; Pakistan has a large Pashtun minority). However, at least some Pakistani leaders have stated that instability in Afghanistan could rebound to Pakistan's detriment; Pakistan has struggled with indigenous Islamist militants of its own.⁷⁶ Pakistan may also anticipate that improved relations with Afghanistan's leadership could limit India's influence in Afghanistan.

About 2 million Afghan refugees have returned from Pakistan since 2001, but approximately 2.4 million more remain in Pakistan and Pakistan is pressing many of them to return; the forced return of several hundred thousand since 2016 may raise questions under international law and exacerbate humanitarian problems in Afghanistan.⁷⁷ Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are further complicated by a long-standing border dispute over which violence has broken out on several occasions (Kabul does not accept the 1893 "Durand Line" as a legitimate international border).⁷⁸

61 Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are further complicated by the large Afghan refugee population in Pakistan and a long-standing border dispute over which violence has broken out on several occasions.⁶² Pakistan sees Afghanistan as potentially providing strategic depth against India, but may also anticipate that improved relations with Afghanistan's leadership could limit India's influence in Afghanistan. Indian interest in Afghanistan stems largely from India's broader regional rivalry with Pakistan, which impedes Indian efforts to establish stronger and more direct commercial and political relations with Central Asia.

In his August 2017 speech, President Trump announced what he characterized as a new approach to Pakistan, saying, "We can no longer be silent about Pakistan's safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond."⁶³ He also, however, praised Pakistan as a "valued partner," citing the close U.S.-Pakistani military relationship. In January 2018, the Trump Administration announced plans to suspend security assistance to Pakistan, a decision that could impact hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.⁶⁴ In February 2018, CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel stated, "Recently we have started to see an increase in communication, information sharing, and actions on the ground," but said that these "positive indicators" have "not yet translated into the definitive actions we require Pakistan to take against Afghan Taliban or Haqqani leaders."⁶⁵

Afghanistan largely maintains cordial ties with its other neighbors, including the post-Soviet states of Central Asia, though some warn that rising instability in Afghanistan may complicate those relations.⁷⁹66 In the past year, multiple U.S. commanders have warned of increased levels of assistance, and perhaps even material support, for the Taliban from Russia and Iran, both of which cite IS presence in Afghanistan to justify their activities.⁸⁰67 Both nations were opposed to the Taliban government of the late 1990s, but reportedly see the Taliban as a useful point of leverage vis-a-vis the United States. Afghanistan may also represent a growing priority for China in the context of broader Chinese aspirations in Asia and globally.⁸¹

Revised Regional Approach

In his August 2017 speech, President Trump identified a new approach to Pakistan, saying, "We can no longer be silent about Pakistan's safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond."⁸² He also praised Pakistan as a "valued partner," citing the close U.S.-Pakistani military relationship. The Trump Administration announced in January 2018 plans to suspend security assistance to Pakistan, a decision that could impact hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.⁸³ In February 2018, CENTCOM Commander General Joseph Votel stated, "Recently we have started to see an increase in communication, information sharing, and actions on the ground." He also said, however, that these "positive indicators" have "not yet translated into the definitive actions we require Pakistan to take against Afghan Taliban or Haqqani leaders."⁸⁴

In his August 2017 speech, President Trump also 68 The President mentioned neither Iran nor Russia in his speech, and it is unclear how, if at all, the U.S. approach to them might have changed as part of the new strategy.⁶⁹ Afghanistan may also represent a growing priority for China in the context of broader Chinese aspirations in Asia and globally.⁷⁰ In his 2017 speech, President Trump encouraged India to play a greater role in Afghan economic development; this, along with other Administration messaging, has compounded Pakistani concerns over Indian activity in Afghanistan.⁸⁵71 India has been the largest regional contributor to Afghan reconstruction, but New Delhi has not shown an inclination to pursue a deeper defense relationship with Kabul. Afghans themselves appear divided on the wisdom of cultivating stronger ties with India.⁸⁶ Neither Iran nor Russia was mentioned in the President's speech; it is unclear how, if at all, the U.S. approach to them might have changed as part of the new strategy.⁸⁷ 

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Economy and U.S. Aid

Economic development is pivotal to Afghanistan's long-term stability, though indicators of future growth are mixed. Decades of war have stunted the development of most domestic industries, including mining.⁸⁸73 The economy has also been hurt by a steep decrease in the amount of aid provided by international donors. Afghanistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown an average of 7% per year since 2003, but growth slowed to 2% in 2013 due to aid cutbacks and political uncertainty about the post-2014 security situation. Since 2015, Afghanistan has experienced a "slight recovery" with growth of between 2% and 3% in 2016 and 2017, though the increase in the poverty rate (55% living below the national poverty line in 2016-2017 compared to 38% in 2012-2013) complicates that picture.⁸⁹74 A severe drought affecting northern and western Afghanistan has compounded economic and humanitarian challenges.⁷⁵ Social conditions in Afghanistan remain equally mixed. On issues ranging from human trafficking⁹⁰76 to religious freedom to women's rights, Afghanistan has, by all accounts, made significant progress since 2001, but future prospects in these areas remain uncertain.

Congress has appropriated more than $132 billion in aid for Afghanistan since FY2002, with about 63% for security and 28% for development (and the remainder for civilian operations and humanitarian aid).⁹¹77 The Administration's FY2019 budget requests $5.2 billion for the ANDSF, $500 million in Economic Support Funds, and smaller amounts to help the Afghan government with tasks like combating narcotics trafficking.⁹²78 This is roughly even with the overall FY2017 enacted level of about $5.6 billion (down from nearly $17 billion in FY2010). These figures do not include the cost of U.S. combat operations (including related regional support activities), which was estimated at a total of $752 billion since FY2001 in a July 2017 DOD report, with approximately $45 billion requested for each of FY2018 and FY2019.⁹³

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Outlook

Insurgent and terrorist groups have demonstrated considerable capabilities in 2018, throwing into sharp relief the daunting security challenges that the Afghan government and its U.S. and international partners face. At the same time, hopes for a negotiated settlement have risen, inspired by such developments as the June 2018 nationwide cease-fire. Additionally, the United States is reportedly contemplatingU.S. officials are reportedly engaging in direct talks with the Taliban, though the success of negotiations is not guaranteed and outcomes acceptable to Afghans may create dilemmas for the United Statesprospects for such negotiations to deliver a settlement are uncertain.

U.S. policy has sought to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table by compelling the group to conclude that continued military struggle is futile in light of combined U.S., NATO, and ANDSF capabilities. It is still unclear, however, what level of military pressure would force the Taliban to accept a real peace process and the compromises that such a process would likely entail; the presence of 130,000 NATO forces, including 90,000 U.S. troops, in Afghanistan from 2010 to 2012 did not succeed in compelling the Taliban to seek negotiations or capitulate on core issues. Given the Talibanhow the Taliban perceives its fortunes; given the group's battlefield gains in 2018, one observer has said that "the group has little reason to commit to a peace process: it is on a winning streak."⁹⁴80

Still, most observers assess that the Taliban do not pose an existential threat to the Afghan government, and are unlikely to do so given the current military balance.⁹⁵ However, that81 That dynamic could change if the United States changes the level or nature of its troop deployments in Afghanistan or funding for the ANDSF. President Ghani has said, "we[W]e will not be able to support our army for six months without U.S. [financial] support."⁹⁶82 Notwithstanding direct U.S. support, Afghan political dynamics, particularly the willingness of political actors to directly challenge the legitimacy and authority of the central government, even by extralegal means, may pose an even morea serious threat to Afghan stability in 2019 and beyond than, regardless of Taliban military capabilities.

The implications for the United States of aA potential collapse of the Afghan military and/or the government that commands it are unclear. While it seemscould have significant implications for the United States, particularly given the nature of negotiated security arrangements. While it may be unlikely that the Taliban would be able to gain full control over all, or even most, of the country, the breakdown of social order and the fracturing of the country into fiefdoms controlled by paramilitary commanders and their respective militias seemsmay be plausible, even probable. Indeed, Afghanistan experienced a similar situation nearly 30thirty years ago. Though Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan by February 1989, Soviet aid continued, sustaining the communist government in Kabul for nearly three years. However, the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991 ended that aid, and within months a coalition of mujahedin forces overturned the government in April 1992. Almost immediately, mujahedin commanders turned against each other, leading to a complex civil war during which the Taliban was founded, grew, and eventually took control of most of the country, eventually offering sanctuary to Al Qaeda. While the Taliban and Al Qaeda are still "closely allied" according to the U.N.,⁹⁷UN,⁸³ Taliban forces have clashed repeatedly with the Afghan Islamic State affiliate. Under a more unstable future scenario, alliances and relationships among extremist groups could evolve or security conditions could change, offering new opportunities to transnational terrorist groups whether directly or by default.

After more than 17 years of war, Members of Congress and other U.S. policymakers may reassess notions of what "victory" in Afghanistan looks like, examining the array of potential outcomes, how these outcomes might harm or benefit U.S. interests, and the relative levels of U.S. engagement and investment required to attain them.⁹⁸84 The present condition, which is essentially a stalemate that has existed for several years, could persist; some argue that the United States "has the capacity to sustain its commitment to Afghanistan for some time to come" at present levels.⁹⁹85 Others counter that "the threat in Afghanistan doesn't warrant a continued U.S. military presence and the associated costs—which are not inconsequential."¹⁰⁰

86

The Trump Administration has described U.S. policy in Afghanistan as "grounded in the fundamental objective of preventing any further attacks on the United States by terrorists enjoying safe haven or support in Afghanistan."¹⁰¹87 For years, some analysts have dismissed that line of reasoning, describing it as a strategic "myth" and arguing that "the safe haven fallacy is an argument for endless war based on unwarranted worst-case scenario assumptions."¹⁰²88 Some of these analysts and others dismiss what they see as a disproportionate focus on the military effort, citing evidence that "the terror threat to Americans remains low" to argue that "a strategy that emphasizes military power will continue to fail."¹⁰³ Indeed, as89 As many have observed, increased political instability, fueled by questions about the central government's authority and competence and rising ethnic tensions, may pose as serious a threat to Afghanistan as the Taliban does.¹⁰⁴

90 In light of these internal political dynamics, Members of Congress may also examine how the United States can leverage its assets, influence, and experience in Afghanistan, as well as those of Afghanistan's neighbors and international organizations, to encourage more equal, inclusive, and effective and inclusive governance. Congress could also seek to help shape the U.S. approach to potential negotiations around amending the constitution or otherwise altering the highly centralized Afghan political system, e.g., through legislation and public statements.¹⁰⁵ Continued congressional oversight and consultation will be critically important under any scenario.

91 Core issues for Congress include its role in authorizing, appropriating funds for, and overseeing U.S. military activities, aid, and regional policy implementation.

Author Contact Information

Footnotes

32. 44. 52. 63. 69. 73. 76.

1.	Lolita C. Baldor and Matthew Pennington, "Attack in Afghanistan is reminder of formidable task," Washington Post, October 20, 2018.
2.	Special Inspector General for Afghanistan ReconstructionSIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2017.
3.	"Operation Freedom's Sentinel, Quarterly Report to Congress, Jan. 1 to Mar. 31, 2018," Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations, May 21, 2018.
4.	White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia, August 21, 2017.
5.	See, for example, Mujib Mashal, "Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Denounces President Ghani as Unfit for Office," New York Times, August 11, 2016. In September 2017 the U.N.'s Special Representative for Afghanistan described them as having a "good working relationship." United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, Briefing to the United Nations Security Council by the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Afghanistan, Mr. Tadamichi Yamamoto, September 25, 2017See, for example, Mujib Mashal, "Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah Denounces President Ghani as Unfit for Office," New York Times, August 11, 2016.
65.	Frud Bezhan, "Leaked Memo Fuels New Allegations Of Ethnic Bias In Afghan Government," RFERL, November 20, 2017.
76.	See, for example, Azam Ahmed and Habib Zahori, "Afghan Ethnic Tensions Rise in Media and Politics," New York Times, February 18, 2014.
87.	"Afghan Vice-President Dostum flies to Turkey amid torture claims," BBC, May 20, 2017. Several of Dostum's bodyguards were sentenced to five years in jail in November 2017 for their involvement in the incident.
98.	Mujib Mashal, "'No Shame': Afghan General's Victory Lap Stuns a Victim of Rape," New York Times, August 7, 2018.
10.	The group is made up of Dostum's Uzbek Junbish-e-Milli; the Tajik Jamiat-e-Islami (led by Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani); and the Hazara Hizb-e-Wahdat-e-Islami.
11.	Pamela Constable, "Political storm brews in Afghanistan as officials from ethnic minorities break with president, call for reforms and protests," Washington Post, July 1, 2017.
12.	James Mackenzie and Matin Sahak, "Stand-off over powerful Afghan governor foreshadows bitter election fight," Reuters, January 7, 2018; "Powerful Afghan Governor Resigns, Ending Standoff With Ghani," Radio Free Europe, March 22, 2018.
139.	"Powerful Afghan regional leader ousted as political picture clouds," Reuters, December 18, 2017.
1410.	Scott DesMarais, "Afghan Government on Shaky Ground Ahead of Elections," Institute for the Study of War, July 31, 2018.
1511.	Ali Yawar Adili, "Afghanistan Election Conundrum (10): Failure to hold the first ever district council elections?" Afghanistan Analysts Network, August 7, 2018.
1612.	Ali Yawar Adili, "Afghanistan Election Conundrum (1): Political pressure on commissioners puts 2018 vote in doubt," Afghanistan Analysts Network, November 18, 2017; Hamid Shalizi, "Who is an Afghan? Row over ID cards fuels ethnic tension," Reuters, February 8, 2018.
1713.	Jelena Bjelica, "Election Day Two: A triumph of administrative chaos," Afghanistan Analysts Network, October 21, 2018.
1814.	Azizullah Hamdard, "Nearly 950 polling stations out of govt's control," Pajhwok, March 25, 2018; "Afghans Vote in Kandahar Elections Delayed By Violence," Radio Free Europe, October 27, 2018; Haseba Atakpal, "Ghazni Elections Could Be Held With Presidential Elections," Tolo News, October 27, 2018.
1915.	Mujib Mashal, Fahim Abed, and Fatima Faizi, "Afghanistan Votes for Parliament Under Shadow of Taliban Violence," New York Times, October 20, 2018.
2016.	Barnett Rubin, Twitter post, October 20, 2018. https://twitter.com/BRRubin/status/1053679810789195776. Ayesha Tanzeem, "Dispute Between Afghan Election Bodies Over Kabul Results," VOA, December 6, 2018.
2117.	Ayesha Tanzeem, "Dispute Between Afghan Election Bodies Over Kabul Results," VOA, December 6Hamid Shalizi, "Afghanistan to delay presidential election to July: election body," Reuters, December 30, 2018.
2218.	In 2011, U.S. diplomats held their first meetings with Taliban officials of the post-2001 period, and subsequent U.S.-Taliban meetings led to the 2014 release of U.S. prisoner of war Bowe Bergdahl in exchange for the release to Qatar of five senior Taliban captives from the Guantanamo detention facility. An agreement to reopen the Taliban office in Qatar (which opened in June 2013 and closed shortly thereafter under U.S. pressure) also was reached in 2014; that office remains the Taliban's sole official representation.
2319.	The Obama Administration backed reconciliation with the stipulation that any settlement be Afghan-led and require insurgent leaders to (1) cease fighting, (2) accept the Afghan constitution, and (3) sever any ties to Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Steve Coll, Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Random House, 2018), pp. 447-448.
24.	Steve Coll, Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan (Random House, 2018), pp. 447-448.
2520.	Hamid Shalizi and James Mackenzie, "Afghanistan's Ghani offers talks with Taliban 'without preconditions,'" Reuters, February 28, 2018.
2621.	"Taliban and Security Forces Celebrate Eid Together," Tolo News, June 16, 2018.
2722.	Ali Mohammed Sabawoon, "Going Nationwide: The Helmand peace march initiative," Afghanistan Analysts Network, April 23, 2018.
28.	Borhan Osman, "As New U.S. Envoy Appointed, Turbulent Afghanistan's Hopes of Peace Persist," International Crisis Group, September 5, 2018.
29.	Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson via Teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan, May 30, 2018.
30.	Borhan Osman, "A Negotiated End to the Afghan Conflict," United States Institute of Peace, June 18, 2018.
3123.	Pamela Constable, "Taliban appeals to American people to 'rationally' rethink war effort," Washington Post, February 14, 2018; Ayaz Gul, "Taliban Categorically Rejects Peace Talks With Afghan Government," Voice of America, May 16, 2017.
3224.	See, for example, Rebecca Kheel, "Tillerson sees place for Taliban in Afghan government," The Hill, October 23, 2017.
3325.	Mujib Mashal and Eric Schmitt, "White House Orders Direct Taliban Talks to Jump-Start Afghan Negotiations," New York Times, July 15, 2018; "Taliban sources confirm Qatar meeting with senior US diplomat," BBC, July 30, 2018; Anwar Iqbal, "Khalilzad holds direct talks with Afghan Taliban in Qatar," Dawn, October 14, 2018.
34.	Michele Kelemen, "Zalmay Khalilzad Appointed As U.S. Special Advisor To Afghanistan," NPR, September 5UAE says US-Taliban talks show 'positive' result," Al Jazeera, December 20, 2018.
3526.	Mujib Mashal, "Afghan Leader Blindsided by U.S. Meeting With Taliban, Officials Say," New York Times, October 18, 2018. For more, see CRS Insight IN10935, Momentum Toward Peace Talks in Afghanistan?, by [author name scrubbed].
3627.	"Operation Freedom's Sentinel, Quarterly Report to Congress, Jan. 1 to Mar. 31, 2018," Lead Inspector General for Overseas Contingency Operations, May 21, 2018.
3728.	Department of Defense Press Briefing By Major General Hecker via Teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan, February 7, 2018. Overall, the amount of U.S. munitions used in Afghanistan has increased, with 4,361 weapons released in 2017 (up from 1,337 in 2016), the highest annual figure since 2011; 2018 is on track to surpass 2017 by a considerable margin6,823 were released in the first 11 months of 2018 (AFCENT Airpower Summary, July 31November 30, 2018).
3829.	Media Availability with Secretary Mattis en route to Bogota, Colombia, Department of Defense, August 16, 2018; W.J. Hennigan, "Exclusive: Inside the U.S. Fight to Save Ghazni From the Taliban," Time, August 23, 2018.
39.	Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson via teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan, August 22, 2018.
40.	Jim Garamone, "Dunford Encouraged by Afghan, Coalition Efforts in Afghanistan," DoD News, March 23, 2018.
41.	Aaron Mehta, "Interview: Former Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel on Trump, Syria and NKorea," Defense News, February 330. Ellen Mitchell, "Afghanistan war at a stalemate, top general tells lawmakers," The Hill, December 4, 2018.
4231.	SIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2018.	Quoted in Mujib Mashal, "'Time for This War in Afghanistan to End,' Says Departing U.S. Commander," New York Times, September 2, 2018.
43.	Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2018.
44.	Max Fisher, "Why Attack Afghan Civilians? Creating Chaos Rewards Taliban," New York Times, January 28, 2018.
45.	Alec Worsnop, "From Guerilla to Maneuver Warfare: A Look at the Taliban's Growing Combat Capability," Modern War Institute, June 6, 2018.
4633.	Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Helene Cooper, "Newest U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan Mirrors Past Plans for Retreat," New York Times, July 28, 2018.
4734.	Rod Nordland, "The Death Toll for Afghan Forces Is Secret. Here's Why," New York Times, September 21, 2018; Ankit Panda, "Ghani: Afghan Police, Army Death Toll Since 2015 at More Than 28,500," Diplomat, November 16, 2018.
4835.	Richard Sisk, "85 Afghan Troops Killed in Insider Attacks This Year, Report Finds," Military.com, November 5, 2018.
4936.	Pamela Constable and Sayed Salahuddin, "U.S. commander in Afghanistan survives deadly attack at governor's compound that kills top Afghan police general," Washington Post, October 18, 2018; Ryan Browne, "US brigadier general wounded Thursday in Afghanistan attack," CNN, October 22, 2018.
5037.	Matthew Dupee, "Red on Red: Analyzing Afghanistan's Intra-Insurgency Violence," CTC Sentinel, January 2018.
5138.	See, for example, Kyle Rempfer, "Is ISIS gaining 'serious' ground in Afghanistan? Russia says yes. The US says no," Military Times, March 26, 2018. According to media accounts, of the 14 U.S. battlefield casualties in 2017, as many as 9 were killed in anti-ISKP operations, along with at least 2 CIA personnel; Adam Goldman and Matthew Rosenberg, "A Funeral of 2 Friends: C.I.A. Deaths Rise in Secret Afghan War," New York Times, September 6, 2017.
52 39.	See, for example, Amira Jadoon, et al., "Challenging the ISK Brand in Afghanistan-Pakistan: Rivalries and Divided Loyalties," CTC Sentinel, Vol. 11, Issue 4, April 26, 2018; Najim Rahim and Rod Nordland, "Taliban Surge Routs ISIS in Northern Afghanistan," New York Times, August 1 2018.
5340.	NATO Resolute Support Media Center, "Top IS-K commander killed in northern Afghanistan," April 9, 2018.
54.	American officials are reportedly tracking attempts by IS fighters to enter Afghanistan and use Afghan territory as a base from which to plan and conduct international operations. Helene Cooper, "U.S. Braces for Return of Terrorist Safe Havens to Afghanistan," New York Times, March 12, 2018.
5541.	U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2017.
5642.	Special Inspector General for Afghanistan ReconstructionSIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2018.
57.	Additionally, an October 2017 SIGAR report revealed that nearly half of all foreign military trainees that went absent without leave (AWOL) while in U.S.-based training (152 of 320). Those 152 AWOL Afghan trainees make up around 6% of the 2,537 Afghans who came to the United States for training between 2005 and 2017, compared with just .07% of trainees from other countries. SIGAR-18-03-SP, "U.S.-Based Training for Afghanistan Security Personnel: Trainees Who Go Absent Without Leave Hurt Readiness and Morale, And May Create Security Risks," October 17, 2017.
5843.	The FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) conference report authorizes and the FY2018 defense appropriation provides the Administration's request of $4.9 billion for the ANDSF. The Administration's FY2019 request seeks $5.2 billion for the ANDSF, and the House- and Senate-passed versions of the FY2019 NDAA (P.L. 115-232) would authorize the appropriation of the requested amount.	Most estimates put the rate of illiteracy within the ANDSF at over 60%, but reliable figures may not exist. SIGAR reported in January 2014 that means of measuring the effectiveness of ANDSF literacy programs were "limited," and that judgment seems not to have changed in the years since. That SIGAR report described the stated goal of 100% proficiency at a first grade level and 50% proficiency at a third grade level as "unattainable" and "unrealistic." A follow up report at the end of 2014 reiterated concerns about the availability and reliability of literacy data, saying that "no one appeared to know the overall literacy rate of the [ANDSF]."
59 45.	See SIGAR Report 17-47, "Child Sexual Assault in Afghanistan: Implementation of the Leahy Laws and Reports of Assault by Afghan Security Forces," June 2017 (released on January 23, 2018).
60.	Mashal and Sukhanyar, op. cit.
6146.	Shawn Snow, "Report: US officials classify crucial metrics on Afghan casualties, readiness," Military Times, October 30, 2017.
6247.	Statement for the record by General John W. Nicholson, Commander, U.S. Forces – Afghanistan before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Situation in Afghanistan, February 9, 2017.
6348.	Susan Glasser, "The Trump White House's War Within," Politico, July 24, 2017. Some participants reportedly expressed skepticism that a few thousand more troops could meaningfully impact dynamics on the ground, pointing to previous "surges" that did not do so, and raised concerns about an open-ended U.S. commitment in a country where U.S. troops have already been deployed for nearly two decades. Others countered that the relative cost of the U.S. commitment in Afghanistan is a worthy investment when viewed against the cost of a terrorist attack the absence of U.S. forces might allow, comparing it to "term-life insurance." Asawin Suebsaeng and Spencer Ackerman, "$700 Billion and 16 Years at War Is a 'Modest Amount,' U.S. Officers Say," Daily Beast, July 24, 2017.
6449.	Tara Copp, "Mattis signs orders to send about 3,500 more US troops to Afghanistan," Military Times, September 11, 2017.
6550.	Dan Lamothe, "Trump added troops in Afghanistan. But NATO is still short of meeting its goal," Washington Post, November 9, 2017. As of September 30, 2017, the total number of active duty and reserve forces in Afghanistan was 15,298. Defense Manpower Data Center, Military and Civilian Personnel by Service/Agency by State/Country Quarterly Report, September 2017.
6651.	Dan Lamothe and Josh Dawsey, "Trump wanted a big cut in troops in Afghanistan. New U.S. military plans fall short," Washington Post, January 8, 2019.	Brussels Summit Declaration, issued July 11, 2018.
6753.	Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson via teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan, November 20, 2017.
6854.	Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan estimated in a February 6, 2018, Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that 65% of Taliban revenues are derived from narcotics.
6955.	Kyle Rempfer, "Doubts rise over effectiveness of bombing Afghan drug labs," Military Times, February 5, 2018.
7056.	"Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018," United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, November 19, 2018.
7157.	White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia, August 21, 2017.
7258.	Hayatullah Amanat, "Pakistan Is The Center Of Taliban, Ghani Tells The Nation," Tolo News, February 2, 2018.
7359.	For more, see CRS In Focus IF10604, Al Qaeda and Islamic State Affiliates in Afghanistan, by [author name scrubbed].
7460.	Author interviews with Pakistani military officials, Rawalpindi, Pakistan, February 21, 2018.
75.	Larry Hanauer and Peter Chalk, "India's and Pakistan's Strategies in Afghanistan: Implications for the United States and the Region," RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, 2012.
7661.	Jon Boone, "Musharraf: Pakistan and India's backing for 'proxies' in Afghanistan must stop," Guardian, February 13, 2015; author interviews with Pakistani military officials, Islamabad, Pakistan, February 2018.
77.	Asad Hashim, "Afghan refugees return home amid Pakistan crackdown," Al Jazeera, February 26, 2017; Nassim Majidi, "From Forced Migration to Forced Returns in Afghanistan: Policy and Program Implications," Migration Policy Institute, November 29, 2017.
78.	"The Durand Line: A British Legacy Plaguing Afghan-Pakistani Relations," Middle East Institute, June 27, 2017.
79.	Ivan Safranchuk, "Afghanistan and Its Central Asian Neighbors: Toward Dividing Insecurity," Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2017.
80.	Carlotta Gall, "In Afghanistan, U.S. Exits, and Iran Comes In," New York Times, August 5, 2017; Justin Rowlatt, "Russia 'arming the Afghan Taliban', says US," BBC, March 23, 2018.
81.	Thomas Ruttig, "Climbing on China's Priority List: Views on Afghanistan from Beijing," Afghanistan Analysts Network, April 10, 2018.
8262.	About two million Afghan refugees have returned from Pakistan since 2001, but approximately 2.4 million remain in Pakistan and Pakistan is pressing many of them to return; the forced return of several hundred thousand since 2016 may raise questions under international law and exacerbate humanitarian needs in Afghanistan. Nassim Majidi, "From Forced Migration to Forced Returns in Afghanistan: Policy and Program Implications," Migration Policy Institute, November 29, 2017.	White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia, August 21, 2017.
8364.	Mark Landler and Gardiner Harris, "Trump, Citing Pakistan as a 'Safe Haven' for Terrorists, Freezes Aid," New York Times, January 4, 2018. Pakistan closed its ground and air lines of communication (GLOCs and ALOCs, respectively) to the United States after the latter suspended security aid during an earlier period of U.S.-Pakistan tensions in 2011-2012
8465.	Statement of General Joseph L. Votel, Commander, U.S. Central Command before the House Armed Services Committee on Terrorism and Iran: Defense Challenges in the Middle East, February 27, 2018.
8566.	Author interviews with Pakistani military and political officials, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Pakistan, February 2018.
86.	Author interview with Afghan officials, Islamabad, Pakistan, February 24, 2018.
87Ivan Safranchuk, "Afghanistan and Its Central Asian Neighbors: Toward Dividing Insecurity," Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2017.
67.	Carlotta Gall, "In Afghanistan, U.S. Exits, and Iran Comes In," New York Times, August 5, 2017; Justin Rowlatt, "Russia 'arming the Afghan Taliban', says US," BBC, March 23, 2018.
68.	Thomas Ruttig, "Climbing on China's Priority List: Views on Afghanistan from Beijing," Afghanistan Analysts Network, April 10, 2018.
In October 2018, the Trump Administration sanctioned several Iranian military officials for providing support to the Taliban "Treasury and the Terrorist Financing Targeting Center Partners Sanction Taliban Facilitators and their Iranian Supporters," U.S. Department of the Treasury, October 23, 2018.
8870.	Thomas Ruttig, "Climbing on China's Priority List: Views on Afghanistan from Beijing," Afghanistan Analysts Network, April 10, 2018; Michael Martina, "Afghan troops to train in China, ambassador says," Reuters, September 6, 2018.
71.	Author interviews with Pakistani military and political officials, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Pakistan, February 2018.
72.	Author interview with Afghan officials, Islamabad, Pakistan, February 2018.
Much attention has been paid to Afghanistan's potential mineral and hydrocarbon resources, which by some estimates could be considerable but have yet to be fully explored or developed. Once estimated at nearly $1 trillion, the value of Afghan mineral deposits has since been revised downward, but those deposits reportedly have attracted interest from the Trump Administration. Mark Landler and James Risen, "Trump Finds Reason for the U.S. to Remain in Afghanistan: Minerals," New York Times, July 25, 2017. Additionally, Afghanistan's geographic location could position it as a transit country for others' resources. The United States has emphasized the development of a Central Asia-South Asia trading hub, dubbed a "New Silk Road" (NSR), in an effort to keep Afghanistan economically viable and perhaps also to counter a similar Chinese initiative ("One Belt, One Road").
8974.	World Bank Data, last updated October 7, 2018.
9075.	"Afghan drought 'displacing more people than Taliban conflict,'" BBC, October 17, 2018.	Afghanistan was ranked as "Tier 2" in the State Department Trafficking in Persons Report for 2017, an improvement from 2016 when Afghanistan was ranked as "Tier 2: Watch List" on the grounds that the Afghan government was not demonstrating increased efforts against trafficking since the prior reporting period.
9177.	Special Inspector General for Afghanistan ReconstructionSIGAR, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, October 30, 2018.
9278.	For more, see CRS Report R45329, Afghanistan: Legislation in the 115th Congress, by [author name scrubbed].
9379.	Estimated Cost to Each U.S. Taxpayer of Each of the Wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, July 2017. Available at http://www.govexec.com/media/gbc/docs/pdfs_edit/section_1090_fy17_ndaa_cost_of_wars_to_per_taxpayer-july_2017.pdf.
9480.	Michael Semple, "The Taliban's Battle Plan," Foreign Affairs, November 28, 2018.
9581.	See, for example, Seth Jones, "Why the Taliban Isn't Winning in Afghanistan," Foreign Affairs, January 3, 2018.
9682.	Anwar Iqbal, "Afghan army to collapse in six months without US help: Ghani," Dawn, January 18, 2018.
9783.	Twenty-second report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da'esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities, United Nations Security Council, July 27, 2018.
9884.	See, for example, Thomas Jocelyn, "The Afghanistan War Is Over. We Lost," Weekly Standard, October 18, 2018; Jim Banks, "The Public Deserves an Afghanistan War Progress Report," National Review, October 23, 2018; Seth Jones, "The U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan: The Perils of Withdrawal," Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 26, 2018.
9985.	Semple, op. cit.
10086.	Charles Pena, "We Can't Win-and Don't Have To-In Afghanistan." Real Clear Defense, October 9, 2018.
10187.	U.S. Department of State, "Integrated Country Strategy: Afghanistan," September 27, 2018.
10288.	A. Trevor Thrall and Erik Goepner, "Another Year of the War in Afghanistan," Texas National Security Review, September 11, 2018. See also Micah Zenko and Amelia Mae Wolfe, "The Myth of the Terrorist Safe Haven," Foreign Policy, January 26, 2015.
10389.	Erik Goepner, "In Afghanistan, the Withdrawal of U.S. Troops Is Long Overdue," Cato Institute, September 29, 2017.
10490.	Sayed Salahuddin, "Strongman's loyalists show Taliban isn't only threat in Afghanistan," Washington Post, July 4, 2018.
10591.	Omar Samad, "A Pivotal Year Ahead for Afghanistan," Atlantic Council, November 27, 2018.