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Tunisia has taken key steps toward democracy since theits 2011 "Jasmine Revolution" in 2011,," and has so far avoided the violent chaos and/or authoritarian resurrection seen in other "Arab Spring" countrieselsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa region. Tunisians adopted a new constitution in January 2014 and held national elections between October and December 2014the same year, marking the completion of a four-year transitional period. A secularist party, Nidaa Tounes ("Tunisia's Call"), won a plurality of seats in parliament, and its leader Béji Caïd Essebsi was elected president. The results reflect a decline in influence for the country's main Islamist party, Al Nahda (alt: Ennahda, "Awakening" or "Renaissance"), which stepped down from leading the government in early 2014. Al Nahda, which did not run a presidential candidate, nevertheless demonstrated continuing electoral appeal, winning the second-largest block of legislative seats and joining the Nidaa Tounes-led coalition government.
Although many Tunisians are proud of the country's progress since 2011, public opinion polls in 2014 revealed acute anxiety over the future, and surveys in 2015 suggest growing pessimism over the economy. Tangible improvements in economic conditions or government service-delivery are few, security threats have risen, and unemployment remains high. Nidaa Tounes leaders have pledged to bolster counterterrorism efforts and improve economic growth, but have provided few concrete details on how they will pursue these ends. The party may struggle to achieve internal consensus on specific policies, as it was forged from disparate groups united largely in their opposition to Islamism. Tunisian politicians and civil society leaders may also debate how, and when, to move from a pattern of ad-hoc negotiations aimed at achieving "consensus" on key political decisions toward a greater reliance on formal and accountable political institutions.
Terrorist attacks at the Bardo Museum in Tunis and a tourist hotel in the beach town of Sousse in the first half of 2015 have focused global attention on Tunisia's ongoing security challenges. Terrorist cells near the Algerian border to the east are the target of active Tunisian military operations, and cells have also been uncovered in urban areas. Tunisia is also reportedly a top source of Islamist "foreign fighters" in Syria and Libya. Policy debates over the root causes of violent extremism and how best to approach the problem have contributed to mutual distrust between Islamist and secularist political factions.
U.S. policymakers have praised Tunisia's transition, and newly elected Tunisian President Béji Caïd Essebsi visited Washington and met with President Obama in May 2015. Congress has shaped U.S. transitional support to Tunisia and new defense cooperation. The Administration, in consultation with Congress, allocated about $580 million in aid between FY2011 and FY2014, equivalent to ten times the bilateral aid funding appropriated for Tunisia over the previous four fiscal years—and has proposed to double the annual aid appropriation for Tunisia in FY2016. Counterterrorism assistance is set to increase significantly in FY2015. U.S. engagement and aid nonetheless remain modest compared to countries such as Egypt and Jordan, which are regarded as more intertwined with U.S. national security interests. The FY2015 Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act (P.L. 113-235) allows additional funding for Tunisian loan guarantees and for the Tunisian-American Enterprise Fund, which seeks to strengthen Tunisia's private sector. The FY2014 Consolidated Appropriations Act (P.L. 113-76) also provided funding for these purposes, but prohibited a planned Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) "threshold" grant because Tunisia's income level was too high to qualify for a full MCC compact.
Tunisians have struggled, however, to address steep economic challenges and overcome political infighting. Public opinion polls have revealed widespread anxiety about the future. Tunisia's ability to counter terrorism appears to have improved since a string of large attacks in 2015-2016, although turmoil in neighboring Libya and the return of some Tunisian foreign fighters from Syria and Libya continue to pose threats. Militant groups also operate in Tunisia's border regions.
U.S. diplomatic contacts and aid have expanded significantly since 2011. President Trump spoke on the phone with Tunisian President Béji Caïd Essebsi soon after taking office in early 2017, and Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan visited Tunisia in November 2017. President Obama designated Tunisia a Major Non- North Atlantic Treaty Organization Ally in 2015 after meeting with President Caïd Essebsi at the White House. United States Aid for International Development opened an office in Tunis in 2014, reflecting increased bilateral economic aid allocations. The U.S. Embassy in Tunis also hosts the U.S. Libya External Office, through which U.S. diplomats engage with Libyans and monitor U.S. programs in Libya. (The State Department suspended operations at the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli in 2014.)
U.S. bilateral aid administered by the State Department and USAID totaled $205.4 million in FY2017. The Trump Administration requested $54.6 million for FY2018, proposing to eliminate bilateral Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and to cut bilateral economic aid by more than half. The FY2018 Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2018 (Division K of P.L. 115-141), however, provided "not less than" $165.4 million in aid for Tunisia. The Department of Defense (DOD) has provided substantial additional military aid focused on counterterrorism and border security. For FY2019, the Administration has requested $94.5 million in State Department and USAID-administered bilateral funds for Tunisia. In addition, the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) has requested $292 million for an anticipated multi-year development compact with Tunisia.
Much of Tunisia's defense materiel is U.S.-origin, and it has pursued U.S. arms sales to maintain its stocks and expand its capabilities. The State Department licensed the sale of 12 Black Hawk helicopters in 2014, and Tunisia has received significant equipment through the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) program, including 24 Kiowa helicopters and 24 guided missile "Hellfire" launchers notified to Congress in 2016. The U.S. military has acknowledged conducting intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) activities from a Tunisian facility, and U.S. military advisors have reportedly played a role in some Tunisian counterterrorism operations.
Congress has focused on Tunisia's democratic progress, economic stability, and counterterrorism efforts through legislation, oversight, and direct engagement with Tunisian leaders. There is a bipartisan Tunisia Caucus. Relevant bills in the 115th Congress include the FY2019 Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, and the Combatting Terrorism in Tunisia Emergency Support Act of 2017 (H.R. 157).
Tunisia's 2011 popular uprising, known as the "Jasmine Revolution," ended the 23-year authoritarian rule of then-President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali and sparked a wave of unrest in much of the Arab world. Since then, Tunisia has taken key steps toward democracy. Civil and political liberties have expanded dramatically, and Tunisia has experienced far less violence than some other transitional countries. An elected National Constituent Assembly adopted a new constitution in President Béji Caïd Essebsi, who founded the secularist ruling party Nidaa Tounes ("Tunisia's Call"), is a 92-year-old political veteran. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed (41), in office since 2016, leads a broad coalition government that includes Tunisia's main Islamist party, Al Nahda (alt: Ennahda, "Renaissance"), the country's other leading political force. (Al Nahda leaders do not refer to themselves as Islamist, preferring the term "Muslim Democrats."). The coalition has advanced some economic reforms, political decentralization, and efforts to improve gender equality, including a gender-based violence law enacted in 2017. Fiscal austerity efforts and a stalled transitional justice process remain divisive, however. Prime Minister Chahed has struggled to retain political support within the coalition in the face of a public backlash against austerity measures, as well as a power struggle within Nidaa Tounes ahead of elections due in 2019. Leaders in Nidaa Tounes and Al Nahda have referred to their pragmatic partnership as necessary for stability in a fragile new democracy, and the alliance has arguably quieted the overt Islamist-secularist polarization that characterized the transitional period. Some critics view the two parties' entente as "grounded in mutual self-preservation," however, and assert that it is alienating party leaders from their respective bases.1 Some observers have expressed concern at the slow pace of constitutional implementation, the appointment of former-regime figures to top posts, the government's sometimes antagonistic relationship with critical civil society groups, and a years-long state of emergency that suspends some civil liberties.2 As one journalist wrote in 2016, "To many Tunisians, Nidaa Tounes feels like the return of the old regime: some of the same politicians, the same business cronies, the same police practices."3 Although many Tunisians are proud of their country's progress, opinion polls have repeatedly revealed anxiety over the future.4 The country suffered several large terrorist attacks in 2015-2016, and continues to confront threats along its borders with Libya and Algeria. Per-capita GDP has fallen every year since 2014, leading Tunisia to lose its "upper middle income" status in 2015. Efforts to address the socioeconomic grievances that fueled the 2011 uprising have not made significant progress, and corruption is perceived to have expanded.5 Population: 11.1 million; Urban: 66.8% of total Religions: Muslim (official; Sunni) 99.1%, other (includes Christian, Jewish, Shia Muslim, and Baha'i) 1% Ethnicities: Arab 98%, European 1%, Jewish/other 1% Median Age: 31.6 years Life Expectancy: 75.7 years Literacy: 82%; male 90% / female 74% (2015 est.) GDP Per Capita: $3,463 GDP Growth: 2.4% Unemployment: 13% (2017); ages 15-24, 38% (2012) Gross Debt as % of GDP: 73% Key Exports: clothing, semi-finished goods and textiles, agricultural products, mechanical goods, phosphates and chemicals, hydrocarbons, electrical equipment Key Imports: textiles, machinery and equipment, hydrocarbons, chemicals, foodstuffs Top Trade Partners: France, Italy, Germany, China, Spain, Libya, Algeria (2016) Source: Graphic created by CRS. Map boundaries from Esri (2013). Figures drawn from CIA World Factbook, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF); 2018 estimates unless otherwise noted.early 2014, and presidential and parliamentary elections were held in late 2014the same year, formally ending a series of transitional governments (see timeline, Figure 2). During the transitional period, leadingIslamist and secularist political factions repeatedly overcameovercame repeated political crises through consensual negotiations, a feat for which a mediator quartet of Tunisian civil society groups subsequently won the Nobel Peace Prize.
political crises through negotiations.
The 2014 elections were largely peaceful, and all major political parties accepted the results.1 Nidaa Tounes ("Tunisia's Call"), a secularist party founded in 2012, won the largest number of seats in the new parliament, and its founder, Béji Caïd Essebsi, an elder statesman who served as interim prime minister in 2011, was elected president. The main Islamist party, Al Nahda (alt: Ennahda, "Renaissance"), its top political opponent, won the second-largest block of seats in parliament. After protracted negotiations, Nidaa Tounes formed a coalition that includes two other secularist parties as well as Al Nahda. The decision was controversial within Nidaa Tounes, with some arguing that the inclusion of Islamists in the cabinet would betray Nidaa Tounes supporters.
The new government faces acute pressure to rapidly deliver economic gains and improve counterterrorism efforts. Although many Tunisians are proud of their country's progress toward democracy, opinion polls in 2014 revealed acute anxiety over the future, and surveys in 2015 suggest growing pessimism over the economy.2 Government service-delivery has suffered since 2011, threats to public safety have increased, and unemployment remains high at 15%—and may be as high as 42% among working age youth.3 Terrorist threats have grown as Tunisia's previously repressive internal security apparatus has experienced bureaucratic disarray, and as neighboring Libya has unraveled. In 2015, Tunisia has suffered its two deadliest ever terrorist attacks—an attack on the Bardo museum in downtown Tunis in March, and an attack on a tourist hotel in the coastal city of Sousse in June. Islamist-secularist tensions are less overt now than during a Nahda-led government in 2012-2013, but tensions have been fed by disagreement over how to handle security threats, by regional divisions, and by mutual suspicion that each side seeks to manipulate the rules of politics to its advantage.
There appears to be broad agreement across Tunisia's political spectrum that reforms are needed in order to consolidate democratic gains and unlock economic growth and job creation. However, political parties provided few concrete details on their policy preferences during the 2014 campaign, and the new coalition government may struggle to achieve agreement on priorities. Nidaa Tounes itself exhibits little internal cohesion. The kinds of structural economic reforms that Tunisia's international partners have recommended would likely face significant opposition from key interest groups that supported Nidaa Tounes (see "The Economy"). Critics have also questioned Nidaa Tounes's commitment to security sector reform, transitional justice, and checks-and-balances, with some portraying it as a "soft restoration" of the Ben Ali era.4
Tunisia has a small territory, a relatively well-educated and homogenous population, and a history of state encouragement of women's rights. These are arguably structural advantages that favor peaceful politics. At the same time, Tunisia has not escaped becoming "an echo chamber of the ideological conflicts that are shaking the region," including contests between Islamists and secularists, economic leftists and pro-business groups, and libertarians and those who favor a strong state.5 Tunisia's political accomplishments since 2011 are attributable, in part, to individual leaders' willingness to make concessions at key moments, often at the expense of support from their respective bases. Ad-hoc, closed-door negotiations have helped overcome several near-crises, but may be at odds with efforts to institutionalize democratic procedures and foster accountability to voters.
Stated U.S. policy priorities in Tunisia include encouraging democracy, expanding trade and investment ties, and working with the Tunisian government to counter terrorism. Congress has shaped U.S. policy through its authorization and appropriation of foreign aid, its review of arms sales and other security cooperation activities, and its oversight. U.S. engagement and aid have also been affected by debates within Congress over the size of the federal budget, the scale of U.S. foreign aid, and U.S. policy toward countries affected by the "Arab Spring." As Congress examines the Administration's FY2016 aid budget request and evolving U.S. relationship with Tunisia, Members may consider questions such as:
Source: CRS graphic. Basemap created by [author name scrubbed] from Esri (2013). "At a Glance" information from CIA World Factbook (2015), World Bank, and IMF (2015). Figures are 2014 estimates unless otherwise noted. |
Many provisions in the 2014 constitution may require new laws, changes in existing laws, and/or the adoption of new policies and practices in order to be fully implemented. Tunisian leaders, civil society groups, media outlets, and members of the public continue to debate how best to implement the constitution, as well as a range of other policy dilemmas related to the country's transition from authoritarian rule. Selected issues and questions are described below.
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While Tunisia shares many characteristics with neighboring countries, some of its attributes are unique: a small territory, a relatively homogenous population, a relatively liberalized economy, a large and educated middle class, and a history of encouraging women's socioeconomic freedoms. Tunisia's population is overwhelmingly Arabic-speaking and Sunni Muslim (although tribal and ethnic divisions persist in some areas), while its urban culture reflects European influences.
The legal and socioeconomic status of women is among Tunisia's particularities within the Arab world. Polygamy is banned, and women enjoy equal citizenship rights and the right to initiate divorce. (Inheritance laws and practices are nonetheless disadvantageous toward women.) Women serve in the military and in many professions, and constitute more than half of university students; the first woman governor was appointed in 2004. Many Tunisians attribute these advances to the country's relatively liberal Personal Status Code, promulgated in 1956 under then-President Habib Bourguiba, as well as Bourguiba-era educational reforms.
Prior to 2011, Tunisia was widely viewed as exhibiting a stable, albeit and authoritarian, regime that focused on economic growth while staving off political liberalization. It had had only two leaders since independence from France in 1956: Bourguiba, a secular nationalist and independence activist, and Ben Ali, a former interior minister and prime minister who assumed the presidency in 1987. Ben Ali cultivated the internal security services and the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party as his power base, and harshly repressed political participation, freedom of expression, and religious activism. This repression, along with corruption and nepotism, undermined the regime's popular legitimacy, despite relatively effective state services and economic growth. Another factor driving popular dissatisfaction was the socioeconomic divide between the developed, tourist-friendly coast and the poorer interior. Anti-government unrest, particularly rooted in labor and economic grievances, has often originated in the interior—as it did in 2011did the 2011 protest movement.
Tunisia's "Jasmine Revolution" In December 2010, antigovernment protests broke out in Tunisia's interior after a street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in an apparent protest against state repression and a lack of economic opportunities. Protests spread to neighboring towns and eventually to the capital, Tunis, and to wealthy coastal communities associated with the ruling elite. Police opened fire on protesters and made sweeping arrests; an estimated 338 people were killed. |
Dozens of parties contested the 2014 elections, but the top two have come to represent the poles of Tunisian post-revolutionary politics. The ardently secularist Nidaa Tounes ("Tunisia's Call"), which was formed in 2012 in opposition to Islamist rule, includes a mix of former regime figures, trade-unionists, business leaders, and independents. Tunisia's main Islamist party, Al Nahda (alt: Ennahda, "Renaissance"), led an interim coalition government in 2012-2013 after winning by far the largest share of seats in the 2011 National Constituent Assembly elections. Al Nahda stepped down in 2014 in favor of a technocratic interim government, pursuant to a negotiated agreement that deescalated a six-month political crisis caused, in part, by the assassination of two secularist politicians, reportedly by Islamist extremists.
The 2014 elections were largely peaceful, and all major political parties accepted the results. Nidaa Tounes won a plurality of seats in the new parliament, and its founder, Caïd Essebsi, who began his career under Tunisia's first post-independence leader, Habib Bourguiba, was elected president. Al Nahda won the second-largest block of seats. Al Nahda did not run or endorse a presidential candidate, but many of its supporters appear to have voted for Caïd Essebsi's top rival, former Interim President Moncef Marzouki. The campaign rhetoric was heated, with Caïd Essebsi suggesting that Al Nahda supporters were terrorists, while Marzouki accused Caïd Essebsi of seeking to resurrect the authoritarian Ben Ali regime.12 Although Nidaa Tounes and Al Nahda both have national constituencies, the electoral results also pointed to an enduring regional divide: Nidaa Tounes won majorities in most of the urban districts along the northern coast, while Al Nahda and Marzouki came in first in much of the poorer and more rural south and interior.
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Nidaa Tounes' electoral success may be attributable to several factors, including voters' apparent desire for a stronger response to security threats, dissatisfaction with the previous Nahda-led government and, perhaps, nostalgia for greater public order pre-2011. At the same time, Nidaa Tounes exhibits internal ideological divisions, and some question whether the party can outlast its charismatic founder, who is 88 years old. Critics argue that the party lacks internal democracy, and some have questioned Nidaa Tounes leaders' commitment to security sector reform, transitional justice, and government checks-and-balances.13
In early 2015, after protracted negotiations, Nidaa Tounes formed a four-party coalition government that includes Al Nahda. The decision was controversial within Nidaa Tounes, with some leaders arguing that working with Al Nahda would betray their supporters. Al Nahda leader Rached Ghannouchi, who had called for a "national unity" government, praised the decision, although there were some indications of disagreement within his party as well. Within the opposition, the secularist Popular Front party holds the largest block of seats. The two politicians assassinated in 2013 were from the Popular Front. The party is more strongly leftist than Nidaa Tounes and includes prominent activists from parties that were banned under Ben Ali.
Today, Al Nahda and Nida Tounes remain wary rivals but have agreed to share power in an arrangement referred to as "consensus politics." Al Nahda has simultaneously sought to separate its political party activities from religious proselytization, embracing the label of "Muslim Democrats."7 Leaders in both parties have asserted that a government of "national unity" regrouping parties across the political spectrum is necessary to ensure stability and push through difficult economic reforms. In practice, both institutional and economic reforms have been slow to advance. The alliance appears to have been motivated, in part, by Nidaa Tounes's need to cultivate allies given its internal divisions, and by fears on each side that further Islamist-secularist polarization could fuel political exclusion of, respectively, former-regime figures or Islamists.8 For some observers and Tunisian civil society activists, developments in 2017 sparked concerns about Tunisia's democratic trajectory.9 In September 2017, parliament voted narrowly to adopt an extremely controversial "administrative reconciliation law" drafted by President Caïd Essebsi, which grants amnesty for state employees implicated in corruption. A local protest movement and international human rights groups had characterized the bill as a threat to democratic accountability and a blow to Tunisia's transitional justice mechanism.10 A cabinet reshuffle the same month saw the appointment of new ministers with ties to the Ben Ali regime. President Caïd Essebsi later suggested on national television that he was considering changing the constitution, deepening some observers' concerns that his apparent efforts to strengthen the presidency could undermine democratic consolidation.11 In May 2018, Tunisia held landmark local elections to fill posts created under a new political decentralization law. The accomplishment of holding elections, which had been repeatedly delayed, arguably restored a sense of momentum on political reforms. The elections are viewed by many observers as a key step toward more accountable governance as well as a means to address "long-standing issues of dramatic regional disparity" in health care, education, poverty, and infrastructure—although the concrete devolution of policymaking and fiscal authority is likely to be a long-term process at best.12 Turnout was low at 34%, which some attributed to political apathy among young people. Al Nahda won 29% of votes, followed by Nidaa Tounes at 21%, but independent lists collectively outpolled both leading parties, garnering 32% nationally. The contours of future political competition are uncertain ahead of national elections due in 2019. Nidaa Tounes, whose base includes business leaders, trade unionists, Arab nationalists, and former-regime figures, has struggled to contain its ideological and individual fractures. The president, 92, has not stated whether he will run for another five-year term in 2019. The decision to ally with Al Nahda was controversial within the party, leading several senior figures to leave and form a breakaway parliamentary group. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, who has sought to impose fiscal austerity measures, has come under pressure from trade unions to resign, and as of mid-2018 he appeared to be in a power struggle with President Caïd Essebsi.13 Perceptions that the president is positioning his son, Hafedh, currently head of Nidaa Tounes, to succeed him have also sparked public backlash and splits within the ruling party.Not all Tunisian Islamists back Al Nahda, and the party's willingness to compromise may have cost it some support among more radical factions of public opinion. Some religiously conservative Tunisian Salafists,14 who have become more visible since 2011The 2014 constitution, adopted by an overwhelming margin by a transitional parliamentary body, lays out a semi-presidential political system with a directly elected president and relatively strong legislature. Dozens of parties contested elections held later that year, but the top two—Al Nahda and Nidaa Tounes—have come to dominate Tunisia's post-2011 politics. Nidaa Tounes, a big-tent secularist party, was formed in 2012 in opposition to a transitional government led by Al Nahda, an Islamist party that reentered national politics in 2011 after being banned under Ben Ali. Nidaa Tounes won a plurality of seats in the 2014 elections but defections have drained its ranks, leaving Al Nahda with the largest bloc of seats, 69 out of 217. The secularist leftist Popular Front (FP after its French acronym) is the largest opposition party in parliament with 15 seats. The FP includes prominent activists from parties banned under Ben Ali, and two of its members were assassinated in 2013, reportedly by Islamist militants.
appear to prefer to operate outside the formal political system. In some areas, Salafist groups reportedly control mosques and have set up security and service-provision networks.15 A crackdown on unregistered mosques was initiated under the Nahda-led government and has since continued—and intensified following the recent terrorist attacks—sparking concerns among some civil liberties advocates.
Key Figures President Béji Caïd Essebsi. Caïd Essebsi, Prime Minister Assembly President Mohamed Ennaceur. Ennaceur, Foreign Minister Taïeb Baccouche. Baccouche, 70, a founding member of Nidaa Tounes, is a union activist, human rights advocate, and linguistics professor. He was among the Nidaa Tounes leaders who opposed including Al Nahda in the ruling coalition. Baccouche served as Minister of Education in the interim government in 2011—a period of contestation over Tunisia's ban on the full face-veil (niqab) in educational settings, which he defended. Chronology: Key Events January 2011-June 2018 2011: January Authoritarian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali flees amid mounting protests. February Béji Caïd Essebsi, an elder statesman, is appointed interim Prime Minister and promises constitutional reforms by an elected assembly. October Formerly banned Al Nahda wins a plurality in elections for a National Constituent Assembly and forms a "Troika" coalition government with two secularist parties. December Religiously conservative Salafists begin a sit-in at Manouba University to protest a ban on the full face veil or niqab. 2012: April Caïd Essebsi launches Nidaa Tounes as a secularist opposition movement. June Salafists riot in Tunis and other cities. September The U.S. Embassy and American school in Tunis are violently attacked by Islamist extremists, three days after the Benghazi attacks in neighboring Libya. 2013: February-July Two secularist leftist politicians are assassinated, reportedly by Islamist militants, sparking a political crisis and large protests. August The government bans the Tunisian-led Islamist extremist group Ansar al Sharia. October A suicide bomber blows himself up near a hotel in the beach town of Sousse. December After protracted negotiations mediated by a quartet of civil society groups, Al Nahda agrees to cede control of the government to a technocrat Prime Minister. 2014: January The draft constitution is adopted by an overwhelming majority in the Assembly. June A national Truth and Dignity Commission is launched to investigate human rights violations committed by the state, and to provide compensation to victims. July 15 Tunisian soldiers are killed in an ambush near the Algerian border, reportedly the heaviest military death toll in decades. October-December Nidaa Tounes wins elections for the presidency and a plurality in parliament. Béji Caïd Essebsi becomes president. Al Nahda, which does not run a presidential candidate, wins the second-largest bloc of seats and joins the ruling coalition. 2015: March Gunmen kill 21 foreigner tourists and a Tunisian at the Bardo museum in Tunis. June A gunman kills 39 tourists, mostly British, on the beach in Sousse. November A suicide attacker kills 12 Presidential Guard members in downtown Tunis. 2016: March Militants claiming affiliation with the Islamic State launch a coordinated assault on the border town of Ben Guardane. The attack is put down by security forces. July-August Prime Minister Habib Essid resigns after a no-confidence vote in parliament. Nidaa Tounes and Al Nahda, along with several smaller parties and three civil society groups, agree to a broad political coalition aimed at addressing social, economic, and security challenges. President Caïd Essebsi names Youssef Chahed Prime Minister. 2017: February The IMF postpones loan disbursements, citing a lack of progress on reforms. May Prime Minister Chahed announces anti-corruption arrests and investigations targeting high-profile businessmen, politicians, police, and customs officials. September Parliament passes a controversial "administrative reconciliation law" that grants amnesty to civil servants implicated in corruption pre-2011. 2018: January Large protests erupt in opposition to planned fiscal austerity measures. March Parliament votes, controversially, to end the mandate of Tunisia's Truth and Dignity Commission. April Powerful UGTT trade union federation calls for a cabinet reshuffle. May Long-delayed local elections are held. Al Nahda wins the most votes, followed by Nidaa Tounes, but independent lists collectively outpace both leading parties. Since 2011, armed Islamist extremist groups across North and West Africa have exploited porous borders, security sector weaknesses, and access to Libyan weapons stockpiles to expand their activities. These groups have also capitalized on divisive identity issues as well as popular frustrations with poor governance. Some have sought affiliation with Al Qaeda or the Islamic State (IS, alt. ISIS/ISIL), including the Algerian-led regional network Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its various offshoots, as well as several IS-linked cells operating along Tunisia's borders with Algeria and Libya.15 Many, however, appear primarily focused on local or regional objectives. The degree of competition or coordination between Al Qaeda- and IS-linked factions in North Africa is debated. Tunisia has seen the rise of local violent extremist organizations since 2011, and has also faced threats from groups and individuals based in Libya. U.S. and Tunisian officials notably blamed a Tunisian-led group known as Ansar al Sharia (AST) for an attack against the U.S. Embassy and American school in Tunis in 2012. Tunisia declared AST a terrorist group in 2013, and the U.S. State Department designated it a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 2014. The group's leader, known as Abou Iyadh, relocated to Libya, where he was reportedly killed in a U.S. airstrike in June 2015.16 In 2015, deadly terrorist attacks in Tunis and the coastal city of Sousse rattled Tunisians and dealt a blow to the tourism sector. In early 2016, an IS-linked assault on the border town of Ben Guerdane prompted fears of a nascent domestic insurgency. Tunisian officials affirmed that these attacks were planned at least partly from Libya; a 2016 U.S. military strike in the Libyan town of Sabratha reportedly killed a number of Tunisian fighters.17 Internal security conditions have since improved, seemingly due to changes within the security apparatus as well as donor assistance. Tunisia has been a top source of Islamist foreign fighters in Syria and Libya, and several terrorist attacks in Europe have been carried out by individuals of Tunisian origin. In April 2017, then-Interior Minister Hadi Majdoub stated that some 3,000 Tunisian militants remained active abroad and 760 had been killed, adding that the authorities had prevented over 27,000 Tunisian youths from joining their ranks since 2012.18 Majdoub added that some 800 fighters had returned to Tunisia at that point. Youth marginalization and the mass release of terrorism suspects in 2011 may partly explain Tunisia's high number of foreign fighters, as well as perceptions that state institutions remain corrupt, unresponsive, and/or abusive.19 Tunisia has a diverse economy and large middle class. Textile exports, tourism, agriculture, and phosphate mining are key sectors. Tunisia also produces some petroleum, but is a net energy-importer. Until recently, Tunisia was an upper-middle-income country. Strong annual growth prior to 2011, however, masked corruption and inequalities that fed discontent. Notably, after President Ben Ali was pushed out of office in 2011, the World Bank documented that government regulations had been manipulated to favor firms closely tied to the Ben Ali family.20 More broadly, wealth is concentrated along the urban and tourist-friendly coast, while the interior suffers from relative poverty and a lack of investment. Many Tunisians are highly educated, but the economy has generally created low-skilled and low-paid jobs, fueling unemployment. Efforts since 2011 to promote private sector-led growth and create jobs have faced challenges, including investor perceptions of political risk, terrorist attacks on tourist sites, partisan disputes, and labor unrest that has periodically shut down mining operations. Per-capita GDP has fallen every year since 2014, dipping below the upper middle-income threshold of $4,036 in 2015 and remaining below it since.21 Youth unemployment, estimated at 38% in 2012, reportedly remains high.22 Corruption has apparently flourished since the political transition, undermining public faith in institutions and further entrenching regional divisions.23 Economic growth is projected to reach 2.4% in 2018, the highest rate since 2014, due to strong agricultural production and exports.24 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed concerns, however, about Tunisia's rising inflation (7.7% in April 2018, the highest rate since 1991), declining foreign exchange reserves, and vulnerability to rising global energy prices. The IMF has urged Tunisian policymakers to cut costs stemming from energy subsidies, which "disproportionately benefit the better-off"; public sector wages, described as "among the highest in the world as a share of GDP"; and pensions. Such austerity measures, which have been embraced by Prime Minister Chahed, sparked large protests in early 2018. Tunisia's powerful national trade union federation, the UGTT, has since decried efforts to end state subsidies for fuel and other consumer commodities, asserting that "rising prices will only accentuate the social and economic crisis."25 Domestic constituencies are also likely to oppose other economic structural reforms advocated by donors, including protectionist trade policies and the liberalization of labor laws. Tunisian transparency advocates, meanwhile, have called for economic reforms to focus more on changing laws and state practices that they view as enabling high-level corruption.26 U.S. high-level contacts and aid have expanded significantly since 2011, as U.S. officials have hailed the country's peaceful political transition and as Congress has appropriated increased bilateral assistance funding. President Trump and President Caïd Essebsi spoke over the phone in February 2017 and discussed Tunisia's democratic transition and continued security threats. The two presidents "reaffirmed the historic United States-Tunisia relationship and agreed to maintain close cooperation...and seek additional ways to expand cooperation between the two countries."27 Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan visited Tunisia in 2017, and in early 2018 he affirmed that the United States "will continue to support Tunisia's efforts to improve security and modernize its economy, amid formidable challenges."28 The U.S. military conducts intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) activities at a Tunisian facility and U.S. Special Operations Forces have reportedly played an advisory role in Tunisian counterterrorism operations.29 President Obama designated Tunisia a Major Non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization Ally in 2015, after meeting with President Caïd Essebsi at the White House.30 Tunisia cooperates with NATO's Operation Active Endeavor, which provides counterterrorism surveillance in the Mediterranean; participates in NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue; and allows NATO ships to make port calls. United States Agency for International Development opened an office in Tunis in 2014, reflecting increased bilateral economic aid allocations. The U.S. Embassy in Tunis also hosts the U.S. Libya External Office, through which U.S. diplomats engage with Libyans and monitor U.S. programs in Libya.31 (The State Department suspended operations at the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli in 2014.) The Trump Administration proposed $54.6 million in bilateral aid for Tunisia in its FY2018 budget request, proposing to eliminate bilateral Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and to cut bilateral economic aid by more than half. The FY2018 Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2018 (Division K of P.L. 115-141), however, provided "not less than" $165.4 million in aid for Tunisia. The Act also made available DOD funds from the Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund to support border security programs for Tunisia. The Administration's FY2019 aid budget request for Tunisia totals $94.5 million. In addition, the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) FY2019 budget proposal includes $292 million for an anticipated multi-year development compact with Tunisia that would aim to reduce water scarcity and address regulations seen as constraining job creation.33 Tunisia has expanded its acquisitions of U.S. defense materiel in order to maintain its U.S.-origin stocks and expand its counterterrorism capacity. The State Department licensed the sale of 12 Black Hawk helicopters in 2014, and Tunisia has also received significant equipment through the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) program, including 24 Kiowa helicopters. U.S.-Tunisian relations date back over 200 years. Tunisia was also the site of significant World War II battles, and a U.S. cemetery and memorial in Carthage (outside Tunis) holds nearly 3,000 U.S. military dead. During the Cold War, Tunisia pursued a pro-Western foreign policy, despite an experiment with leftist economic policy in the 1960s. Still, U.S.-Tunisian ties were strained by the 1985 Israeli bombing of the Palestine Liberation Organization headquarters in Tunis, which some Tunisians viewed as having been carried out with U.S. approval.34 More recently, the 2012 attack on the U.S. embassy and American school, days after the Benghazi attacks in Libya, temporarily cooled relations as U.S. officials criticized the interim government's handling of the investigation and prosecution of suspects.35 $ millions, by year of appropriation FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 (est.) FY2019 (req.) Bilateral State Dept + USAID
ESF / ESDF
FMF
INCLE
IMET
NADR
Additional State + USAID
Defense Department
Global Train + Equip
Defense Threat Reduction Agency
TOTAL
Source: State Department annual Congressional Budget Requests (FY2016-FY2019); State Department response to CRS query, May 2018; Defense Department congressional notifications and response to CRS query, May 2017. Notes: May not include funding allocated under multi-country programs. Defense Department Global Train + Equip refers to planned funding under §1206, §2282, and §333 as notified to Congress. ESF=Economic Support Fund; ESDF=Economic Support + Development Fund (proposed by Trump Administration); FMF=Foreign Military Financing; INCLE=International Narcotics Control + Law Enforcement; NADR=Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining, and Related; TBD=to be determined. Includes funds designated as Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO). Nidaa Tounes Leader Mohsen Marzouk. Marzouk, 50, became secretary-general of Nidaa Tounes in May 2015 after serving as a top advisor to President Caïd Essebsi and, previously, as his campaign manager. During his brief time as a presidential advisor, he co-signed a new U.S.-Tunisia "memorandum of understanding" on bilateral relations as the counterpart to Secretary of State John Kerry. Marzouk is a veteran activist in leftist, trade union, and human rights circles, and directed the Middle East program at Freedom House between 2002 and 2008. |
Tunisia has suffered its two deadliest terrorist attacks to date in 2015—an attack on the Bardo museum in downtown Tunis in March and an attack on a hotel in the coastal city of Sousse in June. These killed 24 and 38 people, respectively. Both attacks targeted tourist destinations popular with foreigners, leading some to question whether the economic impact of terrorism could undermine political stability. Following the Sousse attack in June, the Tunisian government declared a state of emergency for a renewable period of 30 days, with President Caïd Essebsi warning that "if another attack were to occur, the state would collapse."16 The state of emergency limits some civil liberties, such as public assembly, and grants security forces additional authority. The government also announced it would build a sand barrier along its entire border with Libya, with guard posts, to prevent terrorist infiltration. In late July, Tunisia's parliament approved new counterterrorism legislation granting security forces broad surveillance powers, expanding pretrial detention, and allowing the death penalty for convicted terrorists.
Tunisian political leaders across the ideological spectrum, including Al Nahda, condemned the Bardo and Sousse attacks and joined large public rallies against terrorism. Some opposition parties and civil society groups criticized the government's response, however, expressing concerns that the state of emergency could lead to authoritarian abuses.17 As noted above ("Political Transition: Key Issues"), human rights groups have criticized the new law as well.
The Sousse and Bardo Attacks On June 26, 2015, a gunman opened fire on Western tourists at the Hotel Riu Imperial Marhaba in the coastal city of Sousse, killing 38 people, most of them British nationals. The shooter, who was killed at the scene by police, was identified as 23-year old engineering student Seifeddine Rezgui. Rezgui reportedly trained in Libya in early 2015, although reports differ on whether he trained with a group loyal to the Islamic State or with Al Qaeda-linked Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AST). While the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, some Tunisian officials attributed responsibility to AST.18 Three months earlier on March 18, gunmen killed at least 21 foreign tourists visiting the national Bardo Museum in downtown Tunis, as well as three Tunisian nationals, including a police officer, according to news reports. On March 19, the Islamic State released an audio recording claiming responsibility for the Bardo attack. The Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade also released a statement praising the attack. Subsequently, a new group calling itself Jund al Khilafa in Tunisia ("soldiers of the caliphate") claimed responsibility, although the Tunisian government blamed it on the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade (see below) and killed the latter group's reported leader in a military strike in retaliation. Tunisian officials stated that two identified gunmen, both Tunisian, had traveled to Libya in December for weapons training.19 Some news reports have suggested that the training was conducted in the Libyan city of Derna, which has served as a base for both Ansar al Sharia in Libya and for a separate group loyal to the Islamic State. British security officials in early August stated that there were "strong links" between the Bardo and Sousse attacks.20 |
Violent extremist groups across North and West Africa are exploiting porous borders and the weaknesses of security forces. These groups—such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), its affiliates and break-away factions, and movements calling themselves Ansar al Sharia (Supporters of Islamic Law)—are also capitalizing on divisive identity issues as well as popular frustrations with poor governance. Tunisia has not been overwhelmed by insecurity, as in neighboring Libya, but it has not been immune to these trends. Apparent competition between groups aligned with Al Qaeda and those that support the Islamic State organization could conceivably spur new efforts to carry out large-scale attacks in North Africa with the goal of enticing recruits by demonstrating organizational viability.
Several Tunisia-based extremist groups have emerged since 2011, including Ansar al Sharia in Tunisia (AST) and a group known as the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade (alt: Katibat Uqba Ibn Nafi). The latter is reportedly affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), an Algerian-led regional network, but elements reportedly have ties to the Islamic State. U.S. and Tunisian officials blamed AST for an attack in 2012 against the U.S. Embassy and American school in Tunis, along with several other attacks. Tunisia declared AST a terrorist group in 2013, and the U.S. State Department designated it a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 2014. The group's leader, known as Abou Iyadh, relocated to Libya where he was reportedly killed in a U.S. airstrike in June 2015.21 The Tunisian military has led operations to counter terrorist cells near the northwestern border with Algeria, reportedly in close cooperation with Algerian authorities. Insecurity along the Libyan border and in the remote desert south, both transit areas for heavily armed smugglers, is also of concern.
Some observers attribute the increase in jihadist activity since 2011 to the release of over 1,000 "political prisoners" of various stripes in early 2011 (one was Abou Iyadh, who later founded AST); security force disorganization after the revolution; and events in Mali and Libya. Jihadist groups may also draw on support from Tunisian Salafist groups and communities.22 Officials regularly claim to have broken up domestic terrorist plots, including some targeting the 2014 elections.23 In early 2015, the Interior Ministry announced two large-scale arrests of people suspected of planning assassinations and "spectacular attacks" against government targets, but it is unclear how advanced any preparations may have been.24 A French-Tunisian militant was implicated in the 2013 political assassinations, and more recently has been linked to the Islamic State.25 He was reportedly a former member of a Paris-based Islamist cell which has also been tied to the January 2015 attack on the Paris newspaper Charlie Hebdo.26
Tunisia is also reportedly a top source of Islamist foreign fighters in Syria and Libya, and authorities have expressed concern about those who may return to perpetuate attacks at home. A U.N. working group reported in July 2015 that there were some 4,000 Tunisians in Syria, between 1,000 and 1,500 in Libya, and smaller numbers in Iraq, Mali, and Yemen.27 Tunisian officials have also claimed to have prevented several thousand more Tunisians from traveling to Syria—although they have not publicly defined criteria for preventing individuals' travel, such as whether restrictions are implemented on the basis of specific threats.
Tunisia is an upper-middle-income country, and prior to 2011 it was considered one of the best-performing non-oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Textile exports, tourism, and phosphate mining are key sectors. Tunisia also exports agricultural products and petroleum, although it is a net energy-importer. Strong annual growth prior to 2011, however, masked inequalities that fed discontent. Wealth is concentrated along the Mediterranean coast, while the interior suffers from relative poverty and a lack of investment. Many Tunisians are highly educated, but the economy has generally created low-skilled and low-paid jobs, creating a large pool that is underemployed.
Socioeconomic grievances were a key factor in the 2011 uprising, but efforts to address them have been undermined by new economic strains—attributable, in part, to investor perceptions of political instability, negative regional security trends, and the downturn in the European Union (EU), Tunisia's largest trading partner. Protests and labor disputes have also hampered efforts to attract investment. Declines in tourism and foreign direct investment have been particularly damaging, and Tunisia's international credit ratings have been downgraded. The Bardo and Sousse attacks appear to have been partly aimed at scuttling Tunisia's economic growth by targeting the vital tourism sector. As much as 15% of Tunisia's GDP may be attributable to tourism, along with 7% of total employment.28 According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, "Some 1.9m tourists arrived from the start of 2015 to June 20th, 22% fewer than in the same period of 2014 and 28% fewer than in the same period of 2010, the year before the revolution."29
In order to stabilize Tunisia and support its transition to democracy, international financial institutions have provided additional aid. In 2013, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Tunisia agreed to a two-year, $1.75 billion loan program, of which about $1.15 billion had been disbursed as of December 2014; it was extended in May 2015.30 Additional financial support has been provided by bilateral partners, including the United States, Europe, and Gulf countries.
Tunisia's Next Challenge: Reforming the Economy Western donors have urged Tunisia to liberalize its labor laws, restructure the banking sector, loosen currency restrictions, and reform the investment code and other business regulations to encourage greater private sector competition and attract more foreign investors.31 The IMF has also urged reductions in state pensions and subsidies for basic goods. Such actions could boost growth and jobs in the long-term. However, some could also have a negative impact on many Tunisian households in the near term, for example by making some goods more expensive or laying off state workers—which could, in turn, undermine support for the government. Tunisian politicians generally agree that reforms are needed, but they often differ over which actions to take and how to mitigate any socioeconomic impacts. Nidaa Tounes leaders have provided few concrete proposals and have struggled to achieve consensus about priorities. Some structural reform proposals face opposition from a key element of the party's base: powerful trade unions that defend labor protections and have called successfully for public wage increases. An embrace of trade protectionism is also common even among business leaders otherwise supportive of reforms. |
The EU is Tunisia's largest trading partner, and it provides trade benefits and aid. France is a leading source of investment and tourism revenues, but bilateral relations suffered in the aftermath of the 2011 uprising due to close French ties with the Ben Ali regime, as well as a distrust of Islamist political movements among many French politicians. Since 2011, Tunisian officials have appealed for increased Western financial assistance—including from the United States—while also seeking to increase ties with other Arab and African states, particularly under the Nahda-led government in 2012-2013.32
Tunisia has generally sought cordial relations with its larger, energy-rich neighbors, Algeria and Libya. President Caïd Essebsi's first official state visit was to Algeria, where he lauded the two countries' growing counterterrorism cooperation.33 With regard to Libya, Caïd Essebsi has expressed support for regional political mediation and opposition to external military intervention.34 Turmoil in Libya is an economic concern for Tunisian officials in addition to a security concern. Previously, work opportunities in Libya helped to absorb some of Tunisia's low-skilled labor surplus, while today, in addition to bemoaning the loss of such jobs, some Tunisians blame cross-border smuggling and the large number of Libyan refugees in their country for driving up prices. Former Interim President Moncef Marzouki attempted to revitalize the Arab Maghreb Union, which includes Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Mauritania, but the organization remains inactive due to tensions between Morocco and Algeria, among other factors.
Tunisians broadly sympathize with the Palestinians, and Tunisia hosted the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) headquarters in exile from 1982 to 1993. Tunisia had an interests office in Israel from 1996 until the outbreak of the second Palestinian intifada, or uprising against the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, in 2000. Criticism of Israel and Israeli policies is common across Tunisia's political spectrum, although Tunisia has also annually welcomed Israeli tourists during a pilgrimage to a historic synagogue on Djerba Island. In 2012, the Nahda-led government hosted visits by senior Hamas officials.
President Obama met with newly elected Tunisian President Béji Caïd Essebsi at the White House in May 2015 and subsequently designated Tunisia as a "major non-NATO ally."35 Secretary of State John Kerry and then-presidential advisor Mohsen Marzouk also signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that the State Department described as "outlining how our countries plan to work together to enhance both our security and our economic cooperation."36 The text of the MOU has not been made public. President Obama declared in 2014 that Tunisia's transition "continued to inspire" people in the Arab world and beyond,37 and his 2015 National Security Strategy commits to "work with Tunisia to further progress on building democratic institutions and strengthening its economy."
In February 2014, Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to Tunis, where he pledged "our commitment to stand with Tunisia ... to help move down this road to democracy."38 Kerry also announced a new U.S.-Tunisia Strategy Dialogue, the first session of which was held in Washington in April 2014. Then-Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa, who led Tunisia's delegation, also met with President Obama at the White House. A joint statement emphasized support for "Tunisia's historic democratic transition" and cooperation on economic development, educational and cultural affairs, and security and counterterrorism.39
U.S. officials have supported Tunisian efforts to attract greater foreign investment through aid, trade delegations, and negotiations under the U.S.-Tunisia bilateral trade investment framework agreement (TIFA), which was signed in 2002. The two countries also have a bilateral investment treaty and an agreement to avoid double taxation. In 2012, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed support for a free trade agreement, but there have been few concrete steps toward achieving one.40 Tunisia is the United States' 92nd-largest trading partner; in 2014, U.S. exports to Tunisia totaled $831 million and U.S. imports from Tunisia totaled $521 million.41 Given limited U.S. aid resources and structural obstacles to deepening bilateral economic ties—including a language barrier, Tunisia's small domestic market, and its trade orientation toward Europe—U.S. policymakers have encouraged other partners, such as the EU, to commit resources for Tunisia.
U.S. engagement with Tunisian security forces prior to 2011 was heavily focused on conventional military grants and sales. As terrorist threats have increased, and as the relationship between Tunisia's government and its security services continues to evolve, the United States has provided new types of security assistance to support counterterrorism and reforms. Tunisian officials have welcomed increased U.S. engagement, but the potential presence of U.S. military personnel, including for training activities, is politically sensitive.42 Tunisia cooperates with NATO's Operation Active Endeavor, which provides counterterrorism surveillance in the Mediterranean; participates in NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue; and allows NATO ships to make port calls.
The attack on the U.S. embassy and American school in September 2012 appeared to lead to a temporary cooling of relations, and U.S. officials criticized the Nahda-led interim government's handling of the investigation and prosecution of suspects.43 The State Department's decision to lift a travel warning in 2014, ahead of then-Prime Minister Jomaa's visit, appeared to signal increased confidence.
U.S.-Tunisian relations date back over 200 years. Tunisia was also the site of significant World War II battles, and a U.S. cemetery and memorial in Carthage (outside Tunis) holds nearly 3,000 U.S. military dead. During the Cold War, Tunisia pursued a pro-Western foreign policy, despite an experiment with leftist economic policy in the 1960s. Still, U.S.-Tunisian ties were strained by the 1985 Israeli bombing of the Palestine Liberation Organization headquarters in Tunis, which some Tunisians viewed as having been carried out with U.S. approval.44
Tunisia was not a major recipient of U.S. foreign assistance prior to 2011, but U.S. aid and defense cooperation have grown significantly since then. In total, the Administration, with congressional agreement, allocated about $580 million in aid between FY2011 and FY2014 (Table 1, below), equivalent to ten times the bilateral funding appropriated for Tunisia over the prior four fiscal years.45 The Administration has signaled a desire to further increase aid in the wake of Tunisia's 2014 elections, and has requested $134 million in bilateral funding in FY2016—more than twice the FY2015 request. Some 60% would be for State Department-administered security assistance—a slightly higher proportion than the FY2015 request or FY2014 allocation, and proportionately much higher than FY2011-2013.
U.S. economic aid since 2011 has included at least $60 million for a U.S.-Tunisia "Enterprise Fund" intended to boost economic growth by investing in local firms,46 as well as $79 million for the cost of two sovereign loan guarantees that allowed Tunisia to borrow (at a more favorable interest rate) $485 million in 2012 and $500 million in 2014 on the international debt market. In May 2015, the Administration stated that it was "prepared to consider" a third loan guarantee supporting up to $500 million in borrowing "to advance the Government of Tunisia's ongoing reform program."47 Administration officials have encouraged increased U.S.-Tunisia trade and investment, while urging economic reforms.48 The United States has also supported economic aid through multilateral financial institutions, such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), African Development Bank (AfDB), and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), all of which receive U.S. financing.
U.S. security assistance seeks to bolster Tunisia's counterterrorism capabilities and also to support institutional reforms, including within the opaque internal security services. At least $58 million in State Department-administered International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement funds have been allocated since 2011 for police and justice-sector reform programs. Tunisia is also one of six focus countries of the Administration's "Security Governance Initiative" (SGI), announced during the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in 2014.49
Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance for Tunisia Since 2011
$ millions, estimated allocations as of January 2015
FY2011 |
FY2012 |
FY2013 |
FY2014 |
FY2015 (req./est.) |
FY2016 (req.) |
|||||||||||||||||||
Subtotal, Bilateral Aid |
81.48 |
|
|
|
|
134.40 requested |
||||||||||||||||||
of which, ESF |
57.85 |
|
|
|
|
55.00 |
||||||||||||||||||
of which, FMF |
17.12 |
|
|
|
|
62.50 |
||||||||||||||||||
of which, IMET |
1.95 |
|
|
|
|
2.30 |
||||||||||||||||||
of which, INCLE |
1.50 |
|
|
|
|
12.00 |
||||||||||||||||||
of which, NADR |
3.06 |
|
|
|
|
2.60 |
||||||||||||||||||
Defense Department "Section 1206" global train & equip |
13.03 |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Other (State & USAID regional, global, and centrally-managed economic and humanitarian assistance; multiple accounts) |
44.12 |
|
|
|
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
TOTAL |
138.62 |
251.92 |
125.06 |
63.48 |
|
134.40 |
Source: State Department, Bureau of Foreign Assistance, response to CRS query, February 2015; and State Department, FY2016 Congressional Budget Justification, Foreign Operations, Appendix 3.
Notes: Allocations do not necessarily correspond to appropriations by year, and are subject to shift. Other than "Section 1206," does not include non-State Department/USAID foreign assistance resources. Multi-country programs that may, in part, benefit Tunisian participants are also excluded. Totals may not sum due to rounding. ESF = Economic Support Fund; FMF = Foreign Military Financing; IMET = International Military Education and Training; INCLE = International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement; NADR = Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining and Related Programs; "-" = none or to be determined.
a. Includes funding reprogrammed for Tunisia after being appropriated for other countries and/or purposes.
b.
Estimated FY2015 bilateral allocations not yet available.
c.
Since January 2015, the Defense Department has notified to Congress its intention to provide about $48 million in additional "Section 1206" (now codified as Section 2282) train-and-equip assistance for Tunisia, of which $14 million was appropriated as "Counterterrorism Partnerships Fund" (CTPF).
The Administration has announced plans to provide Tunisia with substantial new counterterrorism assistance in FY2015 and FY2016 through regional and global programs, including under the Defense Department's global train-and-equip authority, Section 2282 (previously, Section 1206).50 The Defense Department has notified Congress of its intent to provide at least $68 million in equipment and training under Section 2282 in FY2015, of which $13.7 million would be funded through the new Counterterrorism Partnerships Fund (CTPF).51 Such aid is in addition to the bilateral funding requested specifically for Tunisia, referenced above.
In 2014, the Administration notified Congress of its intent to agree to sell Tunisia defense articles and services worth an estimated $700 million, including 12 Black Hawk helicopters, through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. Tunisia has also purchased at least two U.S.-made C-130J military transport aircraft in recent years.52
H.R. 2772, the FY2016 Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations bill, would authorize additional Economic Support Fund (ESF) for the cost of additional loan guarantees for Tunisia. The report accompanying H.R. 2772 (H.Rept. 114-154) recommends the appropriation of $134 million in aid for Tunisia, which is the same as the Administration's request. The report accompanying the Senate version of the FY2016 foreign aid appropriations bill (S.Rept. 114-79, accompanying S. 1725), would provide substantially lower budget authority for several types of bilateral aid to Tunisia than the Administration has requested. The relevant accounts include ESF, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), and International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE). The report recommends, for ESF and INCLE, that the Administration add to the FY2016 appropriation by reprogramming existing funds for Tunisia, particularly monies that would have been spent in Yemen.
Congress authorized funding for loan guarantees and the creation of the Tunisian-American Enterprise Fund in the FY2012 Department of State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Act (Division I of P.L. 112-74).53 Congress made new funds available for loan guarantees and the enterprise fund in the FY2015 and FY2014 foreign aid appropriations acts (§7034 [r], Division J of P.L. 113-235; and §7041[g], Division K of P.L. 113-76, respectively). The explanatory statement accompanying the FY2015 act, P.L. 113-235, specified $30 million in ESF budget authority for Tunisia, the same as the Administration's FY2015 request.54
The FY2014 Department of State, Foreign Operations, And Related Programs Appropriations Act (Division K of P.L. 113-76) prohibited any foreign assistance from being used to support a Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) "threshold" program in a country that is not a candidate for a full MCC compact. The Administration had planned a roughly $20 million MCC threshold grant for Tunisia that was to focus on addressing constraints to economic growth and job creation.55 However, Tunisia's relatively high income level renders it ineligible for a compact.56 The Joint Explanatory Statement on P.L. 113-76 referred explicitly to Tunisia, stating that, "Efforts by the Administration to provide MCC assistance to countries that do not meet MCC criteria undermine the integrity of the MCC model."
Tunisia has peacefully achieved many milestones since 2011, prompting observers to portray it as the lone success story of the "Arab Spring." Internal political tensions, socioeconomic pressures, terrorist threats, and regional dynamics are nonetheless likely to pose ongoing challenges. Despite a relative lack of conflict, Tunisia remains a potential locus of regional struggles among rival political ideologies, and among violent extremist groups vying for prominence and recruits. Key questions include whether Tunisia's new elected government is likely to remain cohesive, and whetherhow it will effectively respond to terrorist threats, advance political and economic reforms, foster civil liberties, and satisfy popular demands for quality-of-life improvements. Tunisian leaders have welcomed U.S. assistance since 2011, but the local appetite for outside policy influence, now that the transitional period is formally over, remains to be seen has also been shown to be limited in cases where donors have advocated economic reforms that domestic constituencies view as harmful.
Author Contact Information
1. |
International election observation missions praised the elections while noting potential areas for improvement. (See, e.g., National Democratic Institute (NDI), "Preliminary Statement of the NDI Observer Delegation to Tunisia's 2014 Legislative Elections," October 27, 2014; International Republican Institute (IRI), Tunisia Parliamentary Elections, October 26, 2014, 2015; and Carter Center, Legislative and Presidential Elections in Tunisia: Final Report, 2015. |
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2. |
IRI's Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion, June 22-July 1, 2014, found that 67% of Tunisians felt that things were going in the "wrong direction" and that 65% were "not satisfied at all" with democracy. In 2015, see, e.g., Gallup, "Tunisians' Economic Confidence Hurt After First Attack," July 8, 2015. Tunisian firms have found similar trends. |
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3. |
The World Bank's measurement of Tunisia's "government effectiveness" declined between 2003 and 2013, for example (see http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports). Unemployment figure from International Monetary Fund (IMF) Global Economic Outlook database (April 2015); youth unemployment figure from CIA World Factbook, estimated as of 2011. |
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4. |
Monica Marks, "Tunisia Opts for an Inclusive New Government," The Washington Post [blog], February 3, 2015. |
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5. |
International Crisis Group, Tunisia's Elections: Old Wounds, New Fears, December 2014. |
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6. |
See, e.g., Human Rights Watch (HRW), "Tunisia: Counterterrorism Law Endangers Rights," July 31, 2015. |
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7. |
HRW, "Tunisia: Drop or Amend Security Bill," May 13, 2015. |
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8. |
See International Crisis Group, Reform and Security Strategy in Tunisia, July 23, 2015; and Haykel Ben Mahfoudh, Security Sector Reform in Tunisia Three Years into the Democratic Transition, Arab Reform Initiative, July 2014. |
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9. |
L'Economiste Maghrébin, "Une polémique qui va au-delà de l'ARP," August 8, 2015. |
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10. |
Tunisia exports small amounts of oil but is a net energy importer. The movement alleges that the government has not sufficiently publicized contractual agreements over the exploitation of new oil discoveries. |
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11. |
Associated Press, "Report Raises Number of Killed During Tunisia's Revolution to 338," May 5, 2012. |
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12. |
Christine Petré, "Tunisia's Presidential Climate Heats Up," Middle East Monitor, December 19, 2014. |
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13. | Monica Marks, "Why do Tunisia's Islamists support an unpopular law forgiving corruption?" Washington Post Monkey Cage blog, May 5, 2017. See, e.g., International Crisis Group (ICG), Stemming Tunisia's Authoritarian Drift, January 2018. George Packer, "Exporting Jihad," The New Yorker, March 28, 2016. For example, a late-2018 poll by the International Republican Institute (IRI) found over 80% thought Tunisia was headed in the wrong direction. "Tunisia Poll Confirms Deep Economic Unease; Satisfaction with Anticorruption Campaign," January 20, 2018. IRI, "Tunisia: Poll Reveals Persistent Dissatisfaction with Economy and Corruption," January 13, 2017. Associated Press, "Report Raises Number of Killed During Tunisia's Revolution to 338," May 5, 2012. Monica Marks and Sayida Ounissi, Ennahda from within: Islamists or "Muslim Democrats"? A conversation, March 23, 2016. ICG, Stemming Tunisia's Authoritarian Drift, January 2018. See, e.g., Sarah Feuer, "Tunisia, a Success Story?" July 6, 2017; Monica Marks, "'Letting go of every principle': Tunisia's democratic gains under threat," Middle East Eye, July 23, 2017; and Sarah Yerkes, "Democracy Derailed? Tunisia's Transition Veers Off Course," Foreign Affairs, October 2, 2017. HRW, "Tunisia: Amnesty Bill Would Set Back Transition," July 14, 2016; International Center for Transitional Justice, "ICTJ Comments on Draft Organic Bill Number 49/2015 Pertaining to Reconciliation in the Administrative Field," September 14, 2017. Yerkes, "Democracy Derailed?" op. cit. Sarah Yerkes and Marwan Muasher, Decentralization in Tunisia: Empowering Towns, Engaging People, Carnegie Endowment, May 17, 2018. |
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14. |
"Salafism" refers to a broad subset of Sunni Islamic reformist movements that seek to purify contemporary Islamic religious practices and societies by encouraging the application of practices and views associated with the earliest days of the Islamic faith. Salafist movements hold a range of positions on political, social, and theological questions. A subset of Salafists advocate violence in pursuit of their aims, but many instead pursue non-violent preaching, charity, and (for some) political activities. See CRS Report RS21745, Islam: Sunnis and Shiites, by [author name scrubbed]. |
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15. |
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16. |
TunisieNumerique, "BCE: Le pays fait face à un péril imminent," July 4, 2015; CRS translation of quote. |
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17. |
Tunismag, "Etat d'urgence: Le Front populaire juge la décision infondée," July 5, 2015. |
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18. |
Reuters, "Tunisia's president declares state of emergency after hotel attack," July 4, 2015. |
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19. |
"Tunis gunmen trained with Libyan militia, says security chief," Guardian, March 20, 2015. |
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20. | "Tunisia beach massacre 'linked' to museum killings," BBC online, August 5, 2015. |
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New York Times, "Jihadist from Tunisia died in strike in Libya, U.S. official says," July 2, 2015. Another Tunisian was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Iraq in June 2015: Ali Ani al Harzi, a U.S. "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" accused of involvement in the 2012 Benghazi attacks. Al Harzi was detained in Tunisia in 2012 but released in 2013. |
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Sada, "Tunisia's Fight Against Corruption: An Interview with Chawki Tabib," May 11, 2017. 27.
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The White House, Office of the Press Secretary. "Readout of the President's call with President Beji Caid Essebsi of Tunisia," February 17, 2017. 28.
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"On the Occasion of Tunisia's National Day," statement released by the State Department on March 20, 2018. 29.
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AFRICOM Commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, remarks at a press briefing, March 24, 2017; Washington Post, "Outside the wire: How U.S. Special Operations troops secretly help foreign forces target terrorists," April 16, 2016. 30.
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The designation grants Tunisia priority in the delivery of U.S. excess defense articles (EDA) (22 U.S. Code §2321j), among other potential implications for bilateral security ties. 31.
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See CRS Report RL33142, Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy, by [author name scrubbed]. 32.
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USAID, "Tunisia signs $500 million loan guarantee agreement with the United States," June 3, 2016. 33.
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Tunisia was first declared MCC-eligible in 2016. Previously, its per-capita income had been too high to qualify. 34.
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Jonathan C. Randal, "Raid Left Scars on U.S.-Tunisia Ties," The Washington Post, March 5, 1987. |
See, e.g., IMF, Tunisia: Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement [...], December 29, 2014; World Bank, The Unfinished Revolution, May 2014; and U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Identifying Tunisia's Binding Constraints to Broad-Based Growth, January 2013. |
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32. |
Reuters, "Economics, Politics Underpin Qatar Aid to North Africa," August 16, 2012; AFP, "La Tunisie de l'après Ben Ali veut retrouver toute sa place en Afrique," January 29, 2012. |
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33. |
AFP, "La Tunisie pas préparée à affronter seule le terrorisme, dit son président," February 4, 2015. |
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34. |
Tout sur l'Algérie, "Caïd Essebsi s'exprime sur les relations avec l'Algérie, le Printemps arabe, la Libye et le Sahara occidental," February 4, 2015. |
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35. |
The designation, notified to Congress on June 10, entails the prioritization of the delivery of U.S. excess defense articles (EDA) to Tunisia over many other countries (22 U.S. Code §2321j), among other potential implications for bilateral security ties. |
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36. |
State Department press briefing, May 20, 2015. Marzouk has since become leader of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party. |
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37. |
The White House, "Statement by the President on Parliamentary Elections in Tunisia," October 26, 2014. |
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38. |
State Department, "Secretary of State Kerry Holds News Conference in Tunis, Tunisia," February 18, 2014. |
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39. |
The White House, "Joint Statement by the United States of America and the Tunisian Republic," April 4, 2014. |
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40. |
Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, hearing, "FY13 Department of State and Foreign Operations Budget Request," February 28, 2012. Progress toward an FTA would be subject to an interagency process and congressional approval, among other factors. |
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41. |
U.S. International Trade Commission data, accessed at http://dataweb.usitc.gov/scripts/cy_m3_run.asp. |
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42. |
David S. Cloud, "U.S. Military Presence in Africa Growing in Small Ways," LA Times, March 7, 2014. |
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On May 29, 2013, the U.S. embassy in Tunis released a public statement criticizing the relatively lenient sentences given to several low-level suspects in the Tunis embassy attack. The statement called for a "full investigation" and accused Tunisia's government of failing to uphold its stated commitment to oppose those who use violence. |
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44. |
Jonathan C. Randal, "Raid Left Scars on U.S.-Tunisia Ties," The Washington Post, March 5, 1987. |
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45. |
Much of the initial post-revolution aid relied on funds reprogrammed from other intended recipients and programs. Estimated FY2011-FY2014 allocations, as of January 2015, provided by the State Department, Bureau of Foreign Assistance; FY2007-FY2010 figures from State Department Congressional Budget Justification-Foreign Operations. |
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46. |
A GAO report released in February 2015 stated that the Tunisia enterprise fund had made one investment to date, of over $2.4 million, in a private equity fund that invests in Tunisian small and medium-sized enterprises. The report also identified several "gaps in implementation" of the Tunisia fund and a fund established for Egypt, which, it said, could "pose challenges for USAID's oversight." (Egypt and Tunisia Funds Are Established; Additional Steps Would Strengthen Compliance with USAID Grant Agreements and Other Requirements, GAO-15-196, February 2, 2015.) A State Department Office of the Inspector General report on the U.S. Embassy in Tunisia in July 2015 recommended "an evaluation of the enterprise fund's performance" prior to providing any additional financing. |
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47. |
The White House, "FACT SHEET: Enduring U.S.-Tunisian Relations," May 21, 2015. |
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48. |
Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, "Tunisia's Moment," www.whitehouse.gov, March 5, 2015. |
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49. |
See The White House, "Fact Sheet: Security Governance Initiative," August 6, 2014. |
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50. |
Originally authorized as Section 1206 of the FY2006 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the global train-and-equip authority was codified in the FY2015 NDAA (P.L. 113-291) as 10 U.S.C. Section 2282. |
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51. |
The FY2015 Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act (P.L. 113-235) established the CTPF, and the FY2015 NDAA (P.L. 113-291) authorized $1.3 billion for it. See CRS In Focus IF10040, DOD Train and Equip Authorities to Counter the Islamic State, by [author name scrubbed]. |
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52. |
AP, "US Delivers Tunisia 2nd Military Transport Plane to Bolster Fight Against Terrorism," January 8, 2015. |
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53. |
Some Members of Congress called in 2012 for cutting U.S. aid over Tunisia's handling of an alleged suspect in the terrorist attacks on U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya. See, e.g., The Cable, "Graham Threatens Tunisia Over U.S. Access to Benghazi Suspect," October 31, 2012; Rep. Frank Wolf, "Cut Off Aid to Tunisia in Light of Obstructing Benghazi Investigation," December 11, 2012; and The Washington Times, "Benghazi Attack Suspect's Release Spurs Calls to Punish Tunisia," January 9, 2013. The suspect, Ali Ani al Harzi, a Tunisian, was detained in Turkey and transferred to Tunisian custody in October 2012. U.S. investigators were reportedly initially denied permission to question him in Tunisian custody, and he was released from detention in January 2013 due to a purported lack of evidence. Al Harzi was later implicated in the two political assassinations in 2013 and was reportedly charged in Tunisia with belonging to a terrorist organization. He was reportedly killed in a U.S. strike in Libya in 2015. |
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54. |
State Department, FY2015 Congressional Budget Justification, Foreign Operations, March 2014. |
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55. |
State Department, "U.S. Government Assistance to Tunisia," December 14, 2012. On MCC threshold grants, see CRS Report RL32427, Millennium Challenge Corporation, by [author name scrubbed]. |
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56. |
The pool of possible candidate countries for an MCC compact is limited by the authorizing statute to those falling under the threshold for the World Bank's classification for upper-middle income countries. Tunisia falls just above the per-capita gross national income threshold, at $4,210, according to the World Bank. |