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Somalia

Changes from May 5, 2015 to April 10, 2019

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May 5, 2015 Somalia Somalia has long been characterized as the classic “failed state,” plagued for more than two decades by seemingly chronic instability and humanitarian need. Since the collapse of the authoritarian Siad Barre regime in 1991, the country has lacked a viable central authority capable of exerting territorial control, securing its borders, or meeting the needs of its people. Terrorism, piracy, illicit trafficking, chronic food insecurity, and mass refugee flows have been, in part, symptoms of Somalia’s political disorder. After numerous attempts to reunite Somalia’s regions, clans, and sub-clans within a credible central government, the international community has rallied behind a new Somali federal government. The election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in September 2012 by a new federal parliament followed the approval of a provisional constitution through an internationally facilitated political process. U.S. and U.N. officials viewed that process as the most credible, inclusive, and representative effort to date to reestablish central governance. In January 2013, the United States officially recognized the Somali government for the first time in 22 years. Diplomatic recognition sought, in part, to highlight fragile improvements in the country’s stability, reflecting both political developments in the capital, Mogadishu, and significant regional military advances against the violent Islamist insurgency led by Al Shabaab (an “affiliate” of Al Qaeda designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization in 2008). This progress has increasingly led donors to focus on development assistance, including efforts to increase stability; bolster access to government services, economic growth, and political reconciliation; improve governance and the rule of law; expand critical infrastructure; and build resilience to drought and other humanitarian emergencies. The United States, European donors, and the U.N. (with member state funding) also provide substantial support for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and for the nascent Somali National Security Forces. The year 2013 was a critical time in Somalia’s engagement with international donors, and U.S. recognition was important in building international support for Somali efforts. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank adjusted their positions on Somalia, making the country eligible for technical assistance and policy advice. Donor governments, regional organizations, and international financial institutions gathered in Brussels to endorse a New Deal Compact with the Somali government; donors pledged more than $2.4 billion, including $69 million from the United States, to support its implementation (2014-2016). The Compact provides a strategic framework for coordinating peace- and statebuilding activities and sets governance arrangements for various multi-donor financing mechanisms. Figure 1. Somalia Facts Recent Security Developments Challenges to stabilizing and rebuilding the Somali state are substantial. Military offensives led by AMISOM and allied Somali and regional forces facilitated critical gains against Al Shabaab in 2011-2012, pushing the group out of Mogadishu and other major southern cities and ports and depriving it of key revenue sources. More recent offensives have reclaimed additional towns, including the port city Barawe, a key Al Shabaab base until October 2014. The insurgents continue to control some rural areas, though, and AMISOM and Somali forces struggle to provide security in liberated areas and along main supply routes, impeding the delivery of humanitarian and development aid. Al Shabaab is not the government’s only rival; some local militias have also resisted efforts to expand central authority. Al Shabaab continues to attack government, civilian, and international targets, primarily in Somalia, but also in Kenya, and periodically elsewhere in East Africa. The group released a video in February 2015 calling for attacks in Kenya and abroad, and naming several shopping malls in Europe and the United States as potential targets, including Minnesota’s Mall of America. The threat was a reminder of the 2013 Westgate mall attack in Nairobi, in which at least 67 people died. The English-language message reflects Al Shabaab’s successful efforts to recruit and raise funds abroad—several American foreign fighters, some but not all of Somali descent, reportedly have been killed in Somalia. The United States has provided substantial support for AMISOM and Somali efforts against Al Shabaab. The United States has also taken direct action in Somalia against members of Al Qaeda, including those members of Al Shabaab “who are engaged in efforts to carry out terrorist attacks against the United States and our interests,” as described in White House reports to Congress. U.S. strikes have resulted in the deaths of several senior Al Shabaab operatives, including its leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane in www.crs.gov | 7-5700 Somalia September 2014, and at least three key figures reportedly responsible for coordinating operations outside Somalia (including the Westgate attack) in early 2015. Other countries have also conducted strikes against Al Shabaab. After Godane’s death, Al Shabaab announced Ahmad Dirie Abdikadir Umar (aka Abu Ubaidah) as the group’s new leader. Divisions under Godane, whose highly centralized leadership style provoked dissent, led several commanders to surrender to local authorities; some additional defections have occurred since his death. The Somali government has offered amnesty to those who surrender and renounce violence. In March 2015, the United States removed a $3 million reward for Al Shabaab’s former intelligence chief after he surrendered to Somali authorities. State-Building Challenges from the Central Bank were made for private purposes, rather than for running the government, representing “a patronage system and set of social relations that defy the institutionalization of the state.” The most recent U.N. report suggests that the systematic diversion of funds continues, undermining efforts to build an effective public financial management system. The report also suggests that in some cases funds are used “for partisan agendas that constitute threats to peace and security.” The Group has reported on violations by senior Somali officials of the U.N. arms embargo, which was modified in 2013 to allow the government to buy light weapons. The Group has raised serious concern with the diversion of government arms and ammunition, including to arms markets in Mogadishu and to clan-based militias, and has implicated a former advisor to the president in the leakage of weapons to Al Shabaab. Humanitarian Situation The government faces major challenges in extending its authority beyond Mogadishu and overcoming contentious clan dynamics. After more than 20 years without central authority, the sharing of power, revenue and resources remains subject to considerable national debate. Most clans favor a decentralized system of governance as the best way to achieve power-sharing among clans and sub-clans. Untapped petroleum resources complicate revenue sharing discussions. Gaps in the legal and regulatory framework governing the hydrocarbons sector are a potential flashpoint for conflict. The nation building process is also complicated by pervasive corruption, insecurity, and spoiler networks working against the consolidation of state authority. Federalism is enshrined in the provisional constitution, but the document is vague on how it will work in practice. The state building process is proceeding—two interim federal states, Jubaland and Southwest, have been formed since 2013 (semi-autonomous Puntland in the northeast is widely considered the first federal state). These processes have been controversial, however, and there is significant tension around efforts to create a state for central Somalia. The government’s relations with Puntland resumed in October 2014, after being suspended for over a year, although underlying questions about power and revenue sharing remain. Another major challenge for the government is the incorporation of clan and regional militia into the army. The government is still seeking to define its relationship with the autonomous northwest region of Somaliland, which declared itself independent from Somalia in 1991. The government is behind schedule on benchmarks it must meet before its mandate expires in 2016. Political infighting between the president and former prime minister delayed action on key tasks in 2014, notably the approval of laws establishing institutions for state formation and elections. President Mohamud named Somalia’s then-ambassador to the United States, Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, as the new prime minister in December. A constitutional review is underway; a draft is to be approved via national referendum to pave the way for elections in 2016. According to the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia, corruption is a “system of governance” in Somalia. The Group reported in 2013 that at least 80% of withdrawals Humanitarian conditions remain extremely poor in much of Somalia, with some 3 million people in need of aid and more than 730,000 Somalis facing acute food insecurity. One million people remain internally displaced. By U.N. estimates, 1.7 million children are not in school; 1 in 12 women die in childbirth; 1 in 10 children die before their first birthday; and only 1 in 3 Somalis has access to safe water. Insecurity constrains humanitarian access—this is one of the most dangerous operating environments in the world for aid workers. Funding shortages also threaten relief programs. Advocacy groups have criticized the decision by U.S. and British banks to close the accounts of Somali money transfer businesses: many Somalis rely heavily on remittances from family abroad, which are estimated to represent one third of Somalia’s total income. U.S. Policy and Foreign Assistance The Obama Administration’s Somalia strategy is based on three key elements: security, governance, and development. The United States has been a key supporter of AMISOM and coordinated diplomatic and military responses to the threat of Somali maritime piracy. In late 2013, the U.S. military, which had maintained a small contingent of personnel in Somalia for several years, deployed a team of military advisors to liaise with the Somali security forces (previously, engagement had been focused on advising and sharing information with AMISOM). U.S. diplomats based in Kenya travel frequently to Mogadishu, but the State Department has yet to reestablish an embassy there. In February 2015, President Obama nominated the first U.S. ambassador to Somalia since 1991; in May 2015, John Kerry became the first Secretary of State to visit Mogadishu. Efforts to promote stability through governance and economic aid are increasing. The FY2016 foreign aid request for Somalia is $209 million, over half of which is focused on security assistance for AMISOM and Somali forces. Humanitarian aid in FY2014 and FY2015 has totaled over $230 million. The United States has provided more than $1 billion in training, equipment, logistics support for AMISOM since 2007 and almost $200 million for Somali forces. Lauren Ploch Blanchard, lploch@crs.loc.gov, 7-7640 www.crs.gov | 7-5700 IF10155Updated April 10, 2019 Somalia Rebuilding the State Figure 1. Somalia Facts Somalia has been plagued by instability and humanitarian crisis for decades. Since the collapse of the authoritarian Siad Barre regime in 1991, there have been numerous attempts to reunite Somalia’s regions, clans, and sub-clans under a credible central authority capable of exerting territorial control and providing services and security for the Somali people. The formation of a federal government in 2012 was a turning point, but Somalia still faces considerable challenges on the path to stability. Over the past decade, international donors have expanded their engagement and increased their focus on development aid, seeking to build resilience to drought; bolster economic growth, access to government services, and political reconciliation; expand critical infrastructure; and improve governance and the rule of law. With the support of donors and an African Union (AU) stabilization force (known as AMISOM), the country has made progress: some now consider Somalia a fragile state, rather than a failed one. Political infighting, clan competition, corruption, and contradictory visions for Somalia’s system of government all complicate the way forward, however, as does an enduring Islamist insurgency. Somalia has not held direct one-person one-vote elections in decades. Foreign officials viewed the 2012 presidential election, in which parliamentarians elected the president after an internationally supported selection process and the adoption of a provisional constitution, as a credible effort to reestablish central governance. In 2013, the United States officially recognized the Somali government for the first time in 22 years, highlighting fragile improvements, both in terms of political developments and advances against Al Shabaab, an affiliate of Al Qaeda. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) also adjusted their positions on Somalia, making the country eligible for policy advice and technical assistance. The UK was the first Western country to reopen its embassy in Somalia, followed by China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and most East African countries. The United States reestablished a permanent diplomatic presence in the capital, Mogadishu, in late 2018. Somalia experienced a peaceful political transition in 2017, when the parliament elected former prime minister and dual U.S.-Somali national Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, aka “Farmajo,” to the presidency over the incumbent. Farmajo’s government has been hamstrung by infighting, corruption, and tensions with Somalia’s federal states. Competition among Arab Gulf states, which are among Somalia’s largest investors and trade partners, has exacerbated frictions between the federal and state governments. These tensions may undermine U.S. policy interests in Somalia as the country moves toward elections expected in 2020/2021. Source: CRS graphic. Map data from Department of State and Esri, Fact information from CIA World Factbook and IMF, 2018. Recent Security Developments Challenges to stabilizing and securing the Somali state are substantial. Military offensives by AMISOM and allied Somali, Kenyan, and Ethiopian forces facilitated critical gains against Al Shabaab in 2011-2012, pushing the group out of Mogadishu and other major southern cities and ports and depriving it of valuable revenue sources. Subsequent offensives reclaimed additional towns and key bases. Al Shabaab has proven resilient, however. It still controls parts of southern and central Somalia, earning revenue by taxing agricultural production, livestock, and illicit trades in charcoal and sugar. It has launched complex assaults on AMISOM bases that have killed hundreds of troops and prompted the mission to realign forces, pulling back from some areas that insurgents have since reoccupied. Al Shabaab also continues to conduct attacks in Mogadishu, likely seeking to undermine confidence in the government and its security measures. In 2016, an Al Shabaab suicide bomber on a Somali airliner detonated a bomb concealed in a laptop computer; it detonated before the plane reached cruising altitude and did not destroy the aircraft. In October 2017, a truck bombing in Mogadishu (attributed to Al Shabaab, though it did not claim responsibility) killed over 500. In January 2019, Al Shabaab showed its ability to hit targets inside the heavily-guarded Mogadishu International Airport complex with mortars, striking the U.N. compound. Many diplomatic facilities and residences are located in the complex, including those of the United States. Over a decade since AMISOM’s deployment to Somalia, the timeline for its exit is uncertain. Per U.N. Security Council resolutions and a 2017 agreement between Somalia and major donors, AMISOM and Somalia’s international security partners are expected to help build the Somali security sector so that the AU mission can gradually hand over responsibilities and withdraw. Various factors have stymied those efforts, including funding shortfalls, limited donor coordination, insufficient institutional development, government dysfunction, and corruption. https://crsreports.congress.gov Somalia The Somali government has taken some notable recent steps to address corruption in the army: authorities have replaced several senior officers, launched a program to biometrically register troops to eliminate “ghost soldiers” from the payroll, and made plans to directly deposit salaries in soldiers’ accounts to ensure consistent payment and reduce theft. Reports of salary delays persist, however: in March 2019, several units outside the capital abandoned their posts, reportedly in protest, and Al Shabaab briefly claimed the areas before being repelled. In early April, elite infantry units trained, equipped, and mentored by the United States launched a new offensive to retake territory from Al Shabaab south of Mogadishu. Whether regular army units can hold the territory will be a key test. Nation-Building Challenges The Somali federal government has struggled to overcome contentious clan and regional dynamics and extend its authority beyond Mogadishu. After more than 20 years without central authority, the sharing of power, revenue, and resources is subject to considerable national debate. Many clans see a decentralized system of governance as the best way to share power among clans and sub-clans, but competition over power in Mogadishu remains a flashpoint. Federalism is enshrined in the 2012 provisional constitution, but the document is vague on how it should work. Untapped petroleum resources, among other issues, complicate revenue-sharing discussions, and the sector’s legal and regulatory gaps are a potential source of conflict. Strains between the federal and state governments worsened in 2018, and concerns about possible interference by Mogadishu in upcoming state elections may stoke tensions ahead of the anticipated 2020 polls. The federal government still seeks to define its relationship with the autonomous region of Somaliland, which declared itself independent in 1991. Clashes between Somaliland and neighboring Puntland in mid-2018 fueled fears of a more protracted conflict, which could be exploited by either Al Shabaab or a small Islamic State faction based in Puntland. Efforts to rebuild Somalia are also complicated by pervasive corruption and spoiler networks working against the consolidation of state authority. Transparency International ranks Somalia as the most corrupt country in the world. The IMF has commended Somalia for implementing some key reforms and for taking steps to broaden its tax base, but allegations of misappropriation persist. Somalia is not eligible for significant financial support until it clears $5 billion in debt arrears. As Somalia works towards the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative decision point, it seeks donor commitments of support for debt relief. Humanitarian Situation Humanitarian conditions, exacerbated by erratic weather patterns, are poor in much of Somalia. Of the 4.2 million Somalis in need of aid in 2019, 1.5 million face crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity. Roughly 2.6 million are internally displaced. Some 320,000 people were displaced by conflict in 2018—the highest level of conflictrelated displacement in four years. By U.N. estimates, three million children are not in school, one in seven children die before their fifth birthday, and a majority of women have undergone female genital mutilation. Funding shortfalls and attacks against aid workers threaten relief programs, and Al Shabaab restricts humanitarian aid activities in areas it controls. Many Somalis rely on remittances from family abroad, which are estimated at over $1 billion annually. U.S. Policy and Foreign Assistance The United States seeks to promote political and economic stability, prevent Somalia from serving as a terrorist safe haven, and alleviate the country’s protracted humanitarian crisis, according to the State Department. Support for the Somali government’s state-building agenda is part of this effort. U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) identifies developing security in Somalia as a key line of effort. After recognizing the Somali government in 2013, the State Department redesignated the Somalia-focused diplomatic unit at the U.S. embassy in Kenya as the U.S. Mission to Somalia in 2015. In 2016, the United States named its first ambassador to Somalia in 25 years. Bilateral relations have been complicated by the Trump Administration’s 2017 decision to list Somalia as one of seven countries whose citizens would be barred from receiving certain types of visas to enter the United States. The United States has provided over $487 million in humanitarian assistance to Somalia in FY2018 - FY2019. Non-emergency U.S. foreign aid, including funding for AMISOM, totaled almost $430 million in FY2018. The FY2020 budget request proposes cuts to governance, health, education, social service, and agriculture programs. The United States also has provided substantial support for AMISOM and Somali efforts to counter Al Shabaab, and U.S. military personnel advise, assist, and accompany regional forces during counterterrorism operations. U.S. support for AMISOM has totaled roughly $2 billion in the past decade, and the United States has provided over half a billion dollars in security assistance for Somali forces. In late 2017, the United States suspended support for most of Somalia’s forces over corruption concerns. Assistance for the U.S.-mentored elite Danab units has continued. The United States has conducted air strikes in Somalia against members of Al Qaeda and Al Shabaab for over a decade. U.S. strikes have killed key senior Al Shabaab operatives, including leader Ahmed Abdi Godane in 2014. The United States has also conducted airstrikes against a small Islamic State faction, led by a former Al Shabaab cleric in northern Somalia. The number of air strikes has been on the rise since 2015, when the Obama Administration broadened its justification for military action in Somalia; President Trump authorized expanded authority for strikes in the country in March 2017. DOD officials reported 36 strikes in 2017 (more than twice the number conducted in 2016) and 47 in 2018; almost 30 were conducted in the first quarter of 2019 alone. Amnesty International, among others, has challenged AFRICOM’s longstanding assertion that no civilian casualties have resulted from U.S. strikes in Somalia. In response, AFRICOM commenced a review and, in April 2019, acknowledged two civilian deaths in a 2018 strike. Lauren Ploch Blanchard, https://crsreports.congress.gov IF10155 Somalia Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF10155 · VERSION 11 · UPDATED