Political Transition in Tunisia
Alexis Arieff
Analyst in African Affairs
Carla E. Humud
Analyst in Middle Eastern and African Affairs
January 29October 22, 2014
Congressional Research Service
7-5700
www.crs.gov
RS21666
Political Transition in Tunisia
Summary
Tunisia is enteringin its fourth year of transition after the 2011 “Jasmine Revolution,” and it has so far
continued to avoid the types of chaos and/or authoritarian resurrections that have affected other
“Arab Spring” countries. Legislative and presidential elections scheduled for late 2014 are
expected to put an end to a series of transitional governments..” On January
26, 2014, Tunisia’s
National Constituent Assembly voted overwhelmingly to adopt a new
constitution. This is widely
viewed as a landmark accomplishment, given the difficulty of
achieving political consensus,
tensions between Islamists and secularists, and ongoing social and
economic unrest. The new
constitution asserts Tunisia’s Muslim identity, but its framing creating
—creating a civil state and
provisions on civil liberties are—is seen as a victory for secularists. The vote
followed a political
agreement under which Tunisia’s main Islamist party, Al Nahda, agreed to
give up its leadership
of the government in favor of a technocratic prime minister. This agreement
ended a months-long political crisis after the assassinations of two secularist politicians in 2013 in the lead-up to the elections.
Tunisia has a small territory, a relatively well-educated and homogenous population, and a history
of encouraging women’s freedoms. Still, Tunisians face significant challenges in reforming state
institutions, addressing economic woes, and responding to security concerns. Islamist extremist
violence has increased within Tunisia amid ongoing regional instability. The military has targeted
terrorist cells near the Algerian border and in the remote south, which reportedly serves as a
regional transit point for weapons and fighters. Tunisian nationals have also been implicated in
violent extremism in Mali, Algeria, and Syria. In early 2014, the United States designated a
Tunisian group known as Ansar al Sharia as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The group was
Ansar al Sharia in
Tunisia, a U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization, was reportedly involved in an attack on
the U.S. Embassyembassy and American school in Tunis on
September 14, 2012, —three days after the attacks in Benghazi, Libya. Tunisian authorities have
declared Ansar al Sharia illegal and a terrorist organization. However, the state’s response to
extremists has been criticized both as overly timid (by secularists) and overly harsh (by members
of Tunisia’s Islamist community), underscoring the challenge, for Tunisian leaders, of countering
terrorism while not appearing to resort to authoritarian tactics associated with the Ben Ali regime
attacks in Benghazi, Libya. The military has targeted terrorist cells near the Algerian border and
in the remote south, which reportedly serves as a regional transit point for weapons and fighters.
Tunisian nationals also reportedly make up one of the largest contingents of Islamist “foreign
fighters” in Syria. Tunisian authorities since the revolution have attempted to ensure public safety
while not appearing to resort to authoritarian tactics associated with the former regime, but
popular opinions are mixed regarding whether they have struck the right balance.
Congress authorizes and appropriates foreign assistance funding and oversees U.S. policy toward
Tunisia and the wider region. The Obama Administration has expressed strong support for
Tunisia’s transition and, in consultation with Congress, has allocated over $450 million in aid
since 2011. However, U.S.-Tunisian relations appear to remain strained by concerns over security
threats to U.S. personnel and what U.S. officials have deemed an insufficient response by the
Tunisian government to the 2012 Embassy attack. The availability of resources to assist Tunisia is
also subject to larger U.S. policy 570 million in aid
since 2011. However, concerns over the security of U.S. personnel appeared to dampen U.S.Tunisian relations in the aftermath of the 2012 embassy attack. Tunisian authorities have
welcomed U.S. assistance and called for it to increase, but the availability of resources is subject
to policy concerns as well as larger U.S. debates over the federal budget and aid to transitional Arab
states. The FY2014 Consolidated Appropriations Act (P.L. 113-76) allows additional funding for
loan guarantees and the U.S.-Tunisia enterprise fund. However, it prohibits any funding for a
planned Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) “threshold” grant for Tunisia.
Some policymakers describeU.S. policymakers have described Tunisia as a key test case for democratic transitions in Arab
states. Yet
Tunisia’s path is far from certain, and Tunisia’s example may, in any case, be less
influential than
larger or more central states such as Egypt and Syria. Still, Tunisia’s experience
highlights regionwideregion-wide issues relating to the struggle between reformists and former regime
elements; the role and
influence of Islamism in state and society; and the difficult balance—for
the United States and
others—of pursuing potentially divergent policy goals, particularly as post-authoritarian
postauthoritarian transitions are often accompanied by political instability and weakened security
forces. U.S.
policymakers continue to debate the degree to which aid and bilateral contacts
provide leverage in
pursuing goals such as countering terrorism and encouraging certain
democratic values.
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Political Transition in Tunisia
Contents
Overview.......................................................................................................................................... 1
Background................................................................................................................................ 2
A New Constitution ......................................................................................................................... 3
Islamist-Secularist Fault Lines .................................................................................................. 5
Security Concerns ............................................................................................................................ 6
Transitional Justice and Security Sector Reform ............................................................................. 8
The Economy ................................................................................................................................... 9
Foreign Relations ........................................................................................................................... 11
U.S. Policy and Aid ....................................................................................................................... 11
U.S. Foreign Assistance ........................................................................................................... 13
Congressional Actions ............................................................................................................. 1516
Outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 1516
Figures
Figure 1. Tunisia at a Glance ........................................................................................................... 2
Tables
Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Tunisia .................................................................................. 1415
Contacts
Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 1617
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Political Transition in Tunisia
Overview
Tunisia is enteringin its fourth year of transition since the January 2011 “Jasmine Revolution”
ended the
authoritarian regime of then-President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali and sparked a wave of
unrest in
much of the Arab world. In practice, civil and political liberties have expanded, and
Tunisia has
experienced far less violence than some other transitional countries. However,
structural reforms
that would guarantee democratic institutions have been halting, and consensus
on government priorities elusive. Tunisians continue to debate elemental questions, such as who
is empowered to act in the name of popular or revolutionary legitimacy, and how the government
can or should deliver tangible benefits to an impatient public with vast and divided expectations.
priorities elusive. Recent public opinion polls show a stark downturn in optimism about the
political transition and democracy itself, apparently reflecting frustrations with a lack of tangible
benefits to date.1 Localized protests and strikes continue to reflect popular frustrations with
governance and
socioeconomic issues. Meanwhile, securitySecurity threats have starkly increased as Tunisia’s transitional
authorities confront growinghave attempted to confront domestic and regional Islamist militancy without recourse
to the
authoritarian methods of their predecessors.
Many analysts and Western officials view Tunisia as having the best hope of any “Arab Spring”
country to complete a
peaceful transition to fully democratic rule. Yet, the process has advanced
in fits and starts. In October 2011, elections widely praised as free and fair put in place a 217member National Constituent Assembly, a legislative body tasked with drafting and adopting a
new constitution.1 An Islamist party, Al Nahda (alt: Ennahda), previously banned under Ben Ali,
won a plurality of seats in the Assembly and formed a coalition government with two secularist
parties.2 The Nahda-led coalition then faced recurrent ideological frictions among the three
parties, as well as tensions between party leaders and their respective grassroots.
A gulf of mistrust between Islamist and secularist political factions has been fed by rising
insecurity and by mutual suspicions that each side seeks to manipulate the rules of the political
process to exclude the other. Such suspicions grew in the wake of the July 2013 military ouster of
the elected president in Egypt. Recurrent political crises have occurred. The government and
Constituent Assembly were politically paralyzed for months after the assassinations of two leftist,
secularist politicians, Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, on February 6 and July 25, 2013. The
government blamed Islamist extremists for the killings, but the perpetrators have yet to be
apprehended. Still, Tunisian political and civic leaders have repeatedly been able to reach (albeit
fragile) consensus through dialogue, even when the transition process has seemed to be stymied.
Tunisia has recently made significant advances. In late 2013, following protracted negotiations,
Al Nahda agreed to relinquish its leadership of the government in favor of a technocratic Prime
Minister, Mehdi Jomaa, an engineer then serving as Minister of Industry. Jomaa was sworn in on
January 10, 2014, after Al Nahda Prime Minister Ali Laraydh stepped down. On January 26, the
Constituent Assembly voted to adopt a new constitution (discussed below). Presidential and
parliamentary elections are anticipated in mid-2014 and considered the next major stage in the
1
The elections were widely viewed as fair, transparent, and well-conducted, despite earlier delays and preparations that
often appeared disjointed. Still, observers expressed concerns regarding some elements of electoral administration;
limited voter education; and a lack of detailed procedures and poll worker training for key parts of the process. Many
Tunisians furthermore appeared to feel alienated by the complexity of the transition process and a lack of
understanding of the Assembly’s role. CRS observations in Tunis and Sousse during the election; see also National
Democratic Institute, Final Report on the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly Election, February 17, 2012.
2
These were Ettakatol (“The Forum”), formerly a small opposition party under Ben Ali; and the Congress for the
Republic (CPR, after its French acronym), which was previously banned.
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transition process. On January 8, 2014, the Constituent Assembly selected the members of a new
electoral commission, overcoming a series of legal and political hurdles.3 in fits and starts. A
National Constituent Assembly was elected in October 2011 in Tunisia’s first-ever open, multiparty contest. The Islamist Al Nahda (alt: Ennahda) party won a plurality of seats and formed a
so-called “Troika” coalition with two centrist, secular parties. The Assembly’s mandate, initially
expected to last no more than a year, stretched into two as the Troika confronted a series of
political crises. In January 2014, the Troika was dissolved in favor of a technocratic government
that has overseen preparations for new elections. The Constituent Assembly then finalized and
voted to adopt a new constitution (discussed below), which has been widely hailed as exemplary.
National elections scheduled for late 2014 represent a key and arguably final step toward a
democratic system. Legislative elections are set to take place on October 26, 2014, and
presidential elections are slated to follow in November, with a run-off in December if necessary.
If the elections are successful, Tunisia will have crossed one more threshold that has eluded other
transitional states in the Middle East and North Africa. Attention may then turn toward the details
of constitutional implementation and the advancement of economic and governance reforms.
Alternately, the electoral process may be challenged and the anticipated transition set back if, for
example, parties dispute the outcome, low turnout undermines the legitimacy of the vote, or
terrorist threats overwhelm the country’s fragile security institutions.
The leading contenders in the elections represent the two poles of Tunisian post-revolutionary
politics: Al Nahda, whose leaders have called for the reconciliation of democracy and Islam, and
the ardently secularist Nida Tounes party, which represents a mix of former regime figures and
leftists. More stridently leftist parties may also make a strong showing. The return of former Ben
Ali–era officials is contentious, but Tunisia has avoided adopting laws that would exclude them.
Overall, a large range of parties are contesting the elections, and upsets also appear possible.
A gulf of mistrust between Islamist and secularist ideological factions has been fed by rising
insecurity and by mutual suspicions that each side seeks to manipulate the rules of the political
process to exclude the other. Tensions reached a boiling point in mid-2013 after the assassinations
1
See, e.g., International Republican Institute (IRI), Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion, June 22-July 1, 2014, which
found that 67% of Tunisians felt that things in Tunisia were going in the “wrong direction” (compared to 48% in
February 2014) and that 65% said they were “not satisfied at all” with democracy in Tunisia (8% in February).
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of two prominent secularist politicians in February and July, allegedly by Islamist militants, and
in the wake of the military ouster of the elected president in Egypt. A standoff between the
Nahda-led coalition government and its secularist critics effectively brought politics to a standstill
until Tunisia’s trade union federation brokered a political agreement in January under which Al
Nahda agreed to cede control of the government to a technocratic prime minister, Mehdi Jomaa.
Broadly, Tunisian political and civic leaders have repeatedly been able to mediate their
differences through dialogue, even when the transition process appeared to have been stymied.
Stated U.S. policy priorities in Tunisia include encouraging a successful democratic transition,
advancing trade and investment ties, and working with the Tunisian government to address
terrorism and other security threats. The Obama Administration, in consultation with Congress,
has allocated over $450 million in aid since 2011. The Administration has requested $61.8 million
for FY2014, referred to as a “normalization” of aid after initial, “urgent” funding was
reprogrammed from other intended recipients570 million in aid since 2011 (see Table 1).4
Figure 1. Tunisia at a Glance
Background
Prior to January 2011, Tunisia was widely viewed as exhibiting a stable, albeit authoritarian,
regime that focused on economic growth while staving off political liberalization. It had had only
two leaders since gaining independence from France in 1956: Habib Bourguiba, a secular
nationalist and former independence activist, and Ben Ali, a former interior minister and prime
3
See International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), Elections in Tunisia: Selection of the New Independent
High Authority for Elections, January 24, 2014.
4
State Department, FY2014 Congressional Budget Justification, Foreign Operations; Statement of Acting Assistant
Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Beth Jones before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, May 22, 2013.
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minister who assumed the presidency in 1987. Ben Ali cultivated the internal security services
minister who assumed the presidency in 1987. Ben Ali cultivated the internal security services
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and the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) party as his power base, and harshly repressed
political participation, freedom of expression, and religious activism. This repression, along with
the ruling elite’s corruption and nepotism, undermined the regime’s popular legitimacy, despite
relatively effective state services and strong economic growth. Another factor driving popular
dissatisfaction was the socioeconomic divide between the developed, tourist-friendly coast and
the poorer interior. Anti-government unrest, particularly rooted in labor and economic grievances,
has often originated in the interior—as did the 2011 protest movement.
While Tunisia (Figure 1) shares many characteristics with neighboring countries, some of its
attributes are
unique: a small territory, a relatively homogenous population, a relatively
liberalized economy, a
large and educated middle class, and a history of encouraging women’s
socioeconomic freedoms.
Tunisia’s population is overwhelmingly Arabic-speaking and Sunni
Muslim (although tribal and
ethnic divisions persist in some areas), while its urban culture
reflects European influences. The
median age, 31, is high compared to most Arab states.5
The legal and socioeconomic status of women is among Tunisia’s particularities within the Arab
world. Polygamy is banned, and women enjoy equal citizenship rights and the right to initiate
divorce. (Inheritance laws and practices are still disadvantageous toward women.) Women serve
in the military and in many professions, and constitute more than half of university students; the
first woman governor was appointed in 2004. Many credit the country’s relatively liberal Personal
Status Code, promulgated in 1956 under then-President Bourguiba, as well as Bourguiba-era
educational reforms, with these advances. The 2014 constitution provides for gender equality.
Tunisia’s “Jasmine Revolution”
The 2011 popular uprising began in December 2010 with anti-governmentantigovernment protests in the interior. On January 14,
2011, it culminated in the decision by President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, in power since 1987, to flee the country for
Saudi Arabia. Protests were first reported in the interior town of Sidi Bouzid, after a 26-year-old street vendor
named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire. The protests quickly spread to nearby towns, and eventually reached
the capital and wealthy coastal communities associated with the ruling elite. Police opened fire on protesters and
made sweeping arrests; an estimated 338 people were killed.62 The army, however, reportedly refused an order to use
force against demonstrations, and reportedly played a significant role in Ben Ali’s decision to step down.
The early months of the post-Ben Ali transition were marked by ongoing waves of unrest, partly because street
demonstrators rejected the continuing role of former regime officials in early interim governments. A security
vacuum additionally raised fears of violence and chaos. In February 2011, a more stable, if weak, interim government
took shape under Prime Minister Béji Caïd Essebsi, an elder statesman from the administration of founding President
Habib Bourguiba. Caïd Essebsi introduced the idea, popular with protesters, of electing an assembly to write a new
constitution—that is, forge a new political system—before holding parliamentary and/or presidential polls.
A New Constitution
Drafting and adopting a new constitution was initially expected to take place in the first year that
followed the 2011 elections, but was repeatedly delayed. Throughout 2012 and the first half of
2013, committees within the Constituent Assembly drafted the provisions of various sections.
Following the release of a final draft in June 2013, a “consensus commission” worked to resolve
5
Richard Cincotta, “Tunisia’s Shot at Democracy: What Demographics and Recent History Tell Us,” New Security
Beat, January 25, 2011.
6
Associated Press (AP), “Report Raises Number of Killed During Tunisia’s Revolution to 338,” May 5, 2012.
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political differences over content. A political crisis triggered by the July 2013 assassination of
Assembly member Mohamed Brahmi dramatically slowed these efforts.
Political negotiations in late 2013 culminated in the resignation of Prime Minister Laraydh—a
key demand of secularist parties—in mid-January 2014. The Assembly then debated and
amended the constitution article by article. Each article required a majority vote to be retained.
The amended text, with 149 articles, was then put to a vote in the Assembly, with a two-thirds
majority required for passage.7 On January 26, Assembly members overwhelmingly voted for
adoption, with 200 in favor, 12 against, and four abstaining. Assembly Speaker Mustapha Ben
Jaafar said that the constitution, “without being perfect, is one of consensus,” and that Tunisia had
“a new rendezvous with history to build a democracy founded on rights and equality.”8On January 26, National Constituent Assembly members overwhelmingly voted in favor of
adopting Tunisia’s new constitution, with 200 in favor, 12 against, and four abstaining. Assembly
Speaker Mustapha Ben Jaafar stated that the constitution, “without being perfect, is one of
consensus,” and that Tunisia had “a new rendezvous with history to build a democracy founded
on rights and equality.”3 The text was the product of an iterative process, as Assembly drafting
committees produced successive versions subject to feedback from members and outside groups.
2
3
Associated Press, “Report Raises Number of Killed During Tunisia’s Revolution to 338,” May 5, 2012.
Associated Press, “Tunisia Finally Passes Progressive Constitution,” January 26, 2014.
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Ultimately, Assembly members debated each article and voted on whether to include it in the final
text before taking a final vote on the full version.
The new constitution’s framing and many of its provisions represent sizable victories for
secularist parties and for pragmatists within Al Nahda. Notably,There is no reference to sharia, or Islamic
law, in the constitution.4 Article 2, which cannot be
amended, states that “Tunisia is a civil state
based on citizenship, the will of the people, and the
supremacy of law.” Article 3 states that “the
people are sovereign and the source of authority,
which is exercised through the people’s
representatives and by referendum.” These provisions
appear to directly counter a foundational
argument by many Islamists that religious law trumps
civil law. There is no reference to sharia, or Islamic law, in the constitution.9 civil law. “Freedom of
conscience and
belief” (Art. 6) is guaranteed, along with gender equality (Art. 21), freedom of
expression and
information (Art. 31-32), freedom of assembly, and individual property rights
(Art. 41), and some
aspects of due process (e.g., Art. 27).
The constitution also creates a mixed presidential system, with a. A directly elected president/head
of state who exercises certain powers—notably of state
exercises powers over defense and foreign affairs— but shares
executive authorities with the legislature
legislature, which selects a prime minister. This model was preferred by secularist parties, which
saw it as creating balances of power, while Al Nahda officials had expressed preference for a
legislative system, with a president selected by the legislature.10fully parliamentary system.5 Some observers have expressed
concern that the mixed system could
prove unwieldy in practice or prone to political deadlock.11
At the same time6
Despite its secular framing, the constitution repeatedly asserts Tunisia’s Muslim identity, at times
in ways
that suggest tensions with its more liberal provisions. For example, Article 1—carried
over from
Tunisia’s first constitution—states that Tunisia’s “religion is Islam, its language Arabic,
and its
system the Republic.” Along with a provision stating that “the state is the guardian of
religion”
(Art. 6), this has led some observers to fear that the constitution could lead the state tostate could proactively
enforce enforce
religious beliefs, for example through the prosecution of blasphemy, a charge that could
limit free
expression. A prohibition against declarations of apostasy or takfir (Art. 6), i.e.,
—accusing a Muslim
of leaving or denouncing Islam, —has also been interpreted by some as a
constraint on free
expression, which could conflict with Article 31.127 Secularists had called for the
ban, arguing that
accusing someone of apostasy is an incitement to violence. Meanwhile, Article
7
Unofficial translation of the new constitution issued by the U.N. Development Program, January 27, 2014.
Associated Press, “Tunisia Finally Passes Progressive Constitution,” January 26, 2014.
9
73 states that only
Muslims may run for president. (Tunisia has tiny Jewish and Christian minorities.) While Al
Nahda leaders praised the constitution and voted for adoption, the party’s leadership overruled its
own parliamentarians who had called for the inclusion of sharia, and hardliners criticized some
aspects.8 Some Salafists, who appear to represent a small but vocal minority within Tunisia, have
protested the constitution as a whole.9
4
Al Nahda leaders had earlier made a series of concessions to secularists regarding the content of the constitution,
including an agreement in early 2012 not to reference sharia. During the amendment process in early 2014,
amendments that would have referenced sharia were introduced but were voted down.
105
Duncan Pickard, “Reaching Consensus on the Tunisian Constitution,” Atlantic Council, July 3, 2013.
116
Pickard, “Identity, Islam, and Women in the Tunisian Constitution,” Atlantic Council, January 24, 2014.
127
See, e.g., Sarah Mersch, “Tunisia’s Compromise Constitution,” Sada, January 21, 2014.
8
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73 states that only Muslims may run for president. (Tunisia has tiny Jewish and Christian
minorities.) While Al Nahda leaders praised the text and voted for adoption, hardliners criticized
some aspects, such as the prohibition on declarations of apostasy.13 Some Salafists, who appear to
represent a small but vocal minority within Tunisia, have protested the constitution as a whole.14
Tunisia Live, “Religious Coalition Claims Draft Constitution Violates Principals of Islam,” January 15, 2014; AlArab, “Ennahda Hardliner MP Condemns Tunisia Draft Constitution as ‘Still-Born,’” January 18, 2014.
9
“Salafism” refers to a broad subset of Sunni Islamic reformist movements that seek to purify contemporary Islamic
religious practices and societies by encouraging the application of practices and views associated with the earliest days
of the Islamic faith. Salafist movements hold a range of positions on political, social, and theological questions. A
subset of Salafists advocate violence in pursuit of their aims, but many instead pursue non-violent preaching, charity,
and (for some) political activities. See CRS Report RS21745, Islam: Sunnis and Shiites, by Christopher M. Blanchard.
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Overall, the new constitution reflects a complex process of adjudicating stark policy differences
over the future shape of state and society. Ultimately, the degree to which it lays the foundation
for a democratic, stable political system is likely to depend on interpretation and implementation,
the degree to which the judiciary and legislature leverage their new authorities, and whether
additional steps are taken to reform state institutions. The new draft is unlikely to definitively
settle ongoing debates regarding the state’s regulation of religious activities; the legal status of
Salafist groups; and how to balance freedom of expression and religious sensitivities.
Islamist-Secularist Fault Lines
Al Nahda, which led the government in 2012-2013 after decades in exile and underground, is at
the center of Tunisian debates over religion, state, and identity. The party’s leaders have expressed
support for democratic participation, the separation of religion and state, and women’s freedoms.
Yet the party’s decision-making reflectsappears to reflect internal divisions and potential competition
with more
radical Islamist constituencies for popular support. Secularist detractors accuse the
party of
purposefully displaying moderation to gain acceptance, while intending to gradually introduce
introduce restrictive laws and institutions. The party’s supporters, for their part, view some critics as
as immovably opposed to Islamists, and some argue that stringently secular elites have lost their
claim to
legitimacy or are seeking a return of the former regime.15
When Al Nahda was leading the government, secularists often pointed to what they viewed as its
effortsargued that the movement was
seeking to prolong its hold on power, encourage religiously conservative social change, and
exercise partisan control over state institutions.16 Al Nahda leaders, on the other hand, pointed to
their willingness on multiple occasions to make concessions to secularists—for example through
a decision in 2012 not to support proposals to include sharia in the constitution—even when
these have angered the party’s base and conservative rivals. Al Nahda leaders have criticized what
they view as secularists’ efforts to bar religion from public life, and appear to fear that secularists
seek to manipulate the electoral or political process to exclude them from government.
A key challenger to Al Nahda is the Nida Tounes party, led by Béji Caïd Essebsi, who served as
interim Prime Minister in 2011 and was a senior official under founding President Bourguiba and,
briefly, under Ben Ali. Caïd Essebsi has positioned himself as leader of the centrist, secularist
opposition. Critics, including some in Al Nahda, have portrayed Nida Tounes as a vehicle for
13
Tunisia Live, “Religious Coalition Claims Draft Constitution Violates Principals of Islam,” January 15, 2014; AlArab, “Ennahda Hardliner MP Condemns Tunisia Draft Constitution as ‘Still-Born,’” January 18, 2014.
14
"Salafism" refers to a broad subset of Sunni Islamic reformist movements that seek to purify contemporary Islamic
religious practices and societies by encouraging the application of practices and views associated with the earliest days
of the Islamic faith. Salafist movements hold a range of positions on political, social, and theological questions. A
subset of Salafists advocate violence in pursuit of their aims, but many instead pursue non-violent preaching, charity,
and (for some) political activities. See CRS Report RS21745, Islam: Sunnis and Shiites, by Christopher M. Blanchard.
15
Le Point, “Tunisie: critiqué, Ennahda brandit le spectre de Ben Ali,” September 7, 2012.
16
E.g., African Manager, "Tunisie: Ressemblances surprenantes, Ben Ali-RCD & Jbali-Ennahdha,” February 27, 2012.
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“counter-revolutionary” figures from the Ben Ali era.1710 Some opinion surveys have shown Nida
Tounes rivaling Al Nahda in popularity; yet, the two parties’ relative appeal and coherence remain
to be tested in elections.18 seen in upcoming elections.11 Other parties may also challenge these two for preeminence.
Tunisia’s main trade union federation, the UGTT, has also asserted its
influence as a leftist and
secularist counter-weight to Al Nahda, as a channel for popular
economic grievances, and as a
convener of “national dialogue” on key policy issues.
Religiously conservative Salafists have become more visible in the post-Ben Ali era. Some
openly support the creation of an Islamic state in Tunisia, and some have challenged the
government—as well as artists, labor union activists, journalists, academics, and women deemed
insufficiently modest—through protests, threats, and/or violence. A handful of Salafist groups
have registered as political parties, but many appear to prefer to operate outside the formal
10
11
See, e.g., Al-Monitor, “Tunisia Party Fights Islamization, Raises Ire of Ruling Ennahda,” October 1, 2012.
See, e.g., IRI, Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion, December 19, 2012-January 7, 2013, February 14, 2013.
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political system. In some areas, Salafist groups reportedly control mosques and have set up
security and service-provision networks.1912 Arrests have followed periodic Salafist violence, but
law-and-order actions do not appear to have been consistent or, necessarily, effective.
Divergent interpretations of security threats and the means necessary to confront them have
contributed to Islamist-secularist tensions. Salafist violence and other security incidents, some
unsolved, have increased pressure on the government to ensure public order and weigh in on
controversial social issues. Al Nahda leaders repeatedly pledged to crack down on violence, but
some argueWhen Al Nahda was leading the government, critics charged that the
party lacked the capacity or will to confront extremists. Al Nahda leaders countered that they
would crack down on violence but that isolating or arresting religiously conservative activists
could further radicalize
them. Al Nahda leaders have also struggled to respond to Islamist critics
(reportedly including
figures within the party) who view counterterrorism efforts as overly broad and repressive.
Secularist critics often charge that Al Nahda lacks the capacity or will to confront extremistsrepressive.
Background on Al Nahda
Al Nahda was founded in 1981 as the Islamic Tendency Movement (MTI). It continues to be led by co-founder Rachid
Ghannouchi, a political activist and widely read theorist of Islam and democracy. The Ben Ali government was among
the most repressive of Islamist political activism in North Africa, forcing Al Nahda underground and into exile in the
1990s and 2000s. Al Nahda candidates ran as independents in parliamentary elections held in 1989, but the
government cracked down when they won 15% of the national vote. Tensions escalated, culminating in an attack on a
ruling party office in 1991 that the government blamed on Al Nahda. In 1992, hundreds of Al Nahda members were
convicted of plotting against the government. Ghannouchi, who had left the country, was sentenced in absentia. Al
Nahda leaders denied the accusations, and some rights advocates criticized the case as biased and lacking due process.
Similar tensions between Islamists and government forces drove neighboring Algeria into civil war in the early 1990s.
Al Nahda’s electoral success in 2011 appears to have stemmed from several factors, including its history of opposition
activism and its message of reconciling Islam and democracy, as well as popular disaffection with Ben Ali’s stringently
secularist form of authoritarian rule. Al Nahda did not play a significant role in the 2011 protest movement, but it
subsequently engaged in effective grassroots mobilization and campaigning. The party may also have benefited from
some secularist parties’ efforts to drive a wedge between Islamists and secularists, a strategy that may have backfired
among Tunisians eager to reconcile democracy with their Arab/Muslim identity.
Security ConcernsConcerns13
Violent extremist groups across North and West Africa are exploiting porous borders and the
weaknesses of security forces. These groups—such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM),
17
See, e.g., Al-Monitor, “Tunisia Party Fights Islamization, Raises Ire of Ruling Ennahda,” October 1, 2012.
See, e.g., IRI, Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion, December 19, 2012-January 7, 2013, February 14, 2013.
19
Aaron Y. Zelin, “Meeting Tunisia's Ansar Al-Sharia,” Foreign Policy, March 8, 2013.
18
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Political Transition in Tunisia
its affiliates and break-away factions, and movements referring to themselves as Ansar al Sharia
(Supporters of Islamic Law)—also are capitalizing on divisive identity issues as well as popular
frustrations with the slow pace of reforms in transitional states. For example, AQIM released a
statement criticizing Tunisia’s crackdown on Salafists after an attack on the U.S. Embassy in
Tunis (see below). In March 2013, the group called on North Africans to stay at home to fight
“secularists and other expatriates” instead of traveling abroad to fight in conflicts such as the one
in Syria, possibly indicating a concern about losing out on potential recruits.20
Local Tunisian groups over the past two years have staged attacks against government, tourist,
and Western targets. A Tunisian suicide bomber blew himself up outside a hotel in the beach
resort of Sousse in October 2013 and another bomber was apprehended by police the same day in
the coastal city of Monastir before he could detonate his vest.21 Two secularist opposition
politicians were killed by gunmen in February and July 2013 outside their homes.22 A mob attack
on the U.S. Embassy in September 2012 caused extensive damage to the building’s outer
enclosure and killed four in subsequent clashes.23
Tunisian authorities have accused the Tunisian Salafist group Ansar al Sharia of being involved or
associated with many of the attacks, although the group has not publicly claimed responsibility.24its affiliates and break-away factions, and movements referring to themselves as Ansar al Sharia
(Supporters of Islamic Law)—also are capitalizing on divisive identity issues as well as popular
frustrations with poor governance. Tunisia has not been overwhelmed by insecurity, as has
arguably been the case in neighboring Libya, but it has not been immune to these trends. Several
Tunisian-led extremist groups have emerged since 2011, including Ansar al Sharia in Tunisia
(discussed below) and a cell known as the Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade, which is reportedly linked to
AQIM. Competition for followers between “core” Al Qaeda and the Islamic State has reportedly
sparked debate within AQIM and other Islamist extremist groups in North and West Africa, which
may influence these groups’ strategic choices.
Tunisian nationals also reportedly make up a significant proportion of foreign fighters active in
violent extremist groups elsewhere in North and West Africa and in Syria.14 According to figures
12
13
Aaron Y. Zelin, “Meeting Tunisia’s Ansar Al-Sharia,” Foreign Policy, March 8, 2013.
See also CRS Report R43756, Al Qaeda-Affiliated Groups: Middle East and Africa, coordinated by Carla E. Humud.
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released by Tunisian authorities, at least 2,400 Tunisians have traveled to Syria as combatants
since 2011, which would make Tunisia one of the largest known sources of foreign fighters there,
while several thousand more Tunisians have been prevented from going. Tunisian authorities
have expressed acute concerns that fighters will return to conduct attacks at home.15
Local Tunisian groups over the past two years have staged attacks against government, tourist,
and Western targets within the country. A Tunisian suicide bomber blew himself up outside a
hotel in the beach resort of Sousse in October 2013, and another bomber was apprehended by
police the same day in the coastal city of Monastir before he could detonate his vest.16 Two
secularist opposition politicians were killed by gunmen in February and July 2013 outside their
homes.17 A mob attack on the U.S. embassy in September 2012 caused extensive damage to the
building’s outer enclosure and killed four in subsequent clashes.18 Officials regularly claim to
have broken up domestic terrorist plots, including plans to attack the upcoming elections.19
Tunisian authorities have accused the Tunisian Salafist group Ansar al Sharia of being involved or
associated with many of the attacks to date, although the group has not claimed responsibility.20
Ansar al Sharia shares a name with other extremist organizations in North Africa, but the degree
of coordination among them is uncertain. The Tunisia-based group, established in 2011 and
initially focused on non-violent preaching and social works, has developed an increasingly
acrimonious relationship with the state since 2013. Clashes between group members and security
forces, followed by threats of violence from Ansar al Sharia’s leadership, led Tunisian officials in
May 2013 to declare the group illegal. The State Department designated Ansar al Sharia as a
Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in January 2014, accusing it of involvement in the 2012
Embassyembassy attack and stating that the group “represents the greatest threat to US interests in
Tunisia.” 25 Tunisian state media reported in late December that U.S. and Libyan forces had
captured21 Media reports suggest that the group’s leader, Seifallah Ben Hassine (a.k.a.aka Abou Iyadh), a former combatant in
Afghanistan (see text-box below), but the U.S. military denied playing a role in the operation.26
Iyadh)—who is wanted in Tunisia and designated for U.N. and U.S. sanctions—may be in Libya.
A number of smaller Salafist and jihadist groups also operate in Tunisia. Although less is known
about their role, some may have ties to terrorist organizations and/or to foreign fighter pipelines
to Syria, Mali, Algeria, and elsewhere.2722 Tunisian security forces have repeatedly clashed with
armed militants, reportedly including foreign fighters, in recent years. Recent military operations
have targeted terrorist “training camps” and weapons depots along the mountainous border with
Algeria, in an area known as Mount Chaambi, west of the town of Kasserine. Tunisian officials
have stated that Mount Chaambi cells are linked to AQIM and include individuals who fought in
20
Ansar al Mujahideen Network, “AQIM Calls On Muslim Youths To Wage Jihad in Islamic Maghreb Countries,”
March 17, 2013, via U.S. Government Open Source Center (OSC).
21
Al Arabiya, “Suicide bombers in Tunisia, From One Decade to Another,” November 8, 2013.
22(...continued)
14
According to Algerian authorities, 11 Tunisian nationals—the largest group of any single nationality—participated in
the hostage-seizure attack by an AQIM affiliate on a natural gas facility in the remote southeastern Algerian town of In
Amenas in January 2013. See also Reuters, “Tunisia Islamists Seek Jihad in Syria with One Eye on Home,” November
18, 2013.
15
See, e.g., The Guardian, “Tunisia Becomes Breeding Ground for Islamic State Fighters,” October 13, 2014.
16
Al Arabiya, “Suicide Bombers in Tunisia, from One Decade to Another,” November 8, 2013.
17
New York Times, “Second Opposition Leader Assassinated in Tunisia,” July 25 2013.
2318
State Department daily press briefing, September 14, 2012.
2419
TAP, “Tunisian Interior Ministry Confirms Plans by Terrorist Group to Target Polls,” September 18, 2014.
20
See, e.g., The Economist, “The Salafist Struggle,” January 1, 2014.
2521
State Department, “Terrorist Designations of Three Ansar al-Shari'a Organizations and Leaders,” January 10, 2014.
As a result of the designations, all property subject to U.S. jurisdiction in which designated individuals and groups have
any interest is blocked, and U.S. persons are prohibited from engaging in any transactions with them or to their benefit.
26
Al Arabiya, “U.S. denies role in arrest of Tunisian militant,” December 30, 2013.
2722
See Andrew Lebovich, “Confronting Tunisia'’s Jihadists, Foreign Policy, May 16, 2013.
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have stated that Mount Chaambi cells are linked to AQIM and include individuals who fought in
Mali.23Mali.28 Insecurity along the Libyan border to the east and in the remote desert south is also of
particular concern, as both areas appear to be transit zones for regional smuggling networks.
Some observers trace jihadists’ presence in Tunisia to the release of over 1,000 “political”
prisoners of various stripes in early 2013; security force disorganization in the aftermath of the
2011 revolution; and events since 2011 in Mali and Libya.2924 Jihadist groups may also draw on
support from Tunisian Salafist groups and communities.30 In addition to militancy within Tunisia,
Tunisian nationals reportedly make up a significant proportion of foreign fighters active in violent
extremist groups elsewhere in North-West Africa and in Syria.3125
Terrorism in Tunisia: Background
While Tunisia has not been subject to many large attacks, terrorism is a potential domestic threat and some Tunisian
nationals have participated in plots abroad. Several are reportedly detained at the U.S. Naval Base in GuantanamoGuantánamo Bay,
Cuba, and officials in the current government have repeatedly sought their return to Tunisia.3226 Two notable terrorist
incidents on Tunisian soil during the Ben Ali era were the 2002 bombing of a synagogue on the Tunisian island of Djerba
(noted for its
Jewish population) and a series of street battles between alleged militants and security forces in Tunis in December
December 2006-January 2007. Al Qaeda’s then-deputy leader Ayman al Zawahiri appeared to claim responsibility for
the Djerba
bombing in a taped message broadcast in October 2002; in all, 14 German tourists, 5 Tunisians, and 2
French citizens
were killed in the attack.3327 France, Spain, Italy, and Germany arrested expatriate Tunisians for alleged
involvement.
The nature of the 2006-2007 violence, in which 14 militants were reported killed, was more opaque.
In 2002, the U.S. State Department placed the Tunisian Combatant Group (TCG), which operated outside Tunisia, on
a list of specially designated global terrorists and froze its assets.3428 The TCG, reportedly founded in 2000, was
primarily active in Afghanistan, where it was linked to the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud, an anti-Taliban
fighter, in September 2001. Its goals also reportedly included establishing an Islamic state in Tunisia. The TCG was
suspected of plotting attacks on the U.S., Algerian, and Tunisian embassies in Rome in December 2001, prompting a
multi-nation crackdown on the group. It has since been inactive, but one founder, Abou Iyadh, went on to found
Ansar al Sharia, reportedly upon his release from Tunisian jail in early 2011. Another founder, Tarek Maaroufi, was
released from prison in Belgium in 2011 and reportedly returned to Tunisia.
Transitional Justice and Security Sector Reform
Tunisian authorities continue to debate how best to ensure accountability for past abuses while
encouraging national reconciliation. Criminal charges have beenwere brought against Ben Ali (in
absentia),
members of his family, and former senior government and security officials. However,
the government has not settled on an approach toward mid- and low-level state employees and
28 in the immediate
aftermath of the 2011 revolution in connection with allegations of corruption as well as violence
against protesters. However, many of these officials have since been acquitted or otherwise
cleared, which has been highly controversial.29 More broadly, there is a question of what
approach to adopt toward mid- and low-level state employees and members of the security and
intelligence services who may have been complicit in past abuses, but did not command them.
23
AFP, “Bomb Attack Kills Two Soldiers In Tunisia: Military,” June 6, 2013.
Many of those released from prison during a general amnesty promulgated in late January 2011 had been held under
Ben Ali’s sweeping anti-terrorism legislation. La Presse, “Enquête - Le jihadisme en Tunisie,” November 8, 2012.
30
See 25
International Crisis Group (ICG), Tunisia: Violence and the Salafi Challenge, February 13, 2013.
31
According to Algerian authorities, 11 Tunisian nationals, i.e. the largest group of any single nationality, participated
in the hostage-seizure attack by an AQIM affiliate on a natural gas facility in the remote southeastern Algerian town of
In Amenas in January 2013. See also Reuters, “Tunisia Islamists Seek Jihad In Syria With One Eye On Home,”
November 18, 2013.
3226
According to news reports, 12 Tunisians were at one time detained in Guatanamo, but only five remain in U.S.
custody. Five were repatriated to third countries, partly due to concerns over their possible torture if returned to
Tunisia, while two others were returned to Tunisia and imprisoned.
3327
Financial Times, “Al-Qaeda Deputy Leader Signals Involvement in Attacks,” October 10, 2002.
3428
See State Department, “Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002,” April 30, 2003; and U.N. Security Council Sanctions
Committee on Al Qaeda, “Tunisian Combatant Group,” 2002 designation.
29
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Political Transition in Tunisia
members of the security and intelligence services who may have been complicit in or aware of
abuses, but did not command them.
Carlotta Gall, “Questions of Justice in Tunisia as Ousted Leaders Are Freed,” New York Times, July 16, 2014.
24
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Political Transition in Tunisia
Many Tunisians are skeptical of the regular justice system, which
was largely was inherited from the Ben Ali
regime and is reportedly viewed as ineffective, subject to
political influence, and, in some cases, corrupt.35
corrupt.30 In December 2013, the Constituent Assembly adopted a law creating a new Truth and
Dignity Commission as well as “Specialized Judicial Chambers” that may initiate prosecutions
under certain circumstances, but their work remains nascent.31 The new constitution contains
provisions on judicial independence, but implementation remains to be seen.
Whether those who served in government under Ben Ali should be barred from politics is aanother
sensitive issue. In 2013, some Al Nahda leadersfigures backed a draft bill that would have prohibited a
range of people associated with the former regime from seeking elected office.36 The 32 However, the
bill, which
might have been applied to leading opposition figurespoliticians such as Béji Caïd Essebsi, appears to have
been shelved, for now, was shelved
as a result of the late-2013 political dialogue. The new constitution does
not condition
presidential or legislative candidacies on past political activity.
Another As a result, several prominent
former regime figures are running for office in the upcoming elections.
Overall, a central policy challenge for Tunisian authorities is how to assert control over the size and
and mandate of the internal security services without creating a backlash or hollowing out
capacity.
The Interior Ministry oversees the security and intelligence services, along with the
police; all
were closely associated with Ben Ali and with abuses such as extrajudicial arrests, extensive
extensive surveillance, intimidation of political opponents, and torture. To date, little information
has been
made public regarding the security apparatus’s internal structure or staffing, or how
these have
changed since the so-called “political police” were officially dissolved in 2011. The status of a
controversial 2003
Constituent Assembly initiated, but did not complete, an effort to amend a controversial 2003
anti-terrorism law promulgated under Ben Ali, which critics viewed as
repressive, is ambiguous amid efforts to protect civil liberties and reform the judiciary.37 repressive. Tensions
between the security forces and politicalcivilian leaders have also risenspiked at times as pressures have
increased on
the security forces to engage in life-threatening counterterrorism operations in the
absence of
structural reforms, and in an atmosphere of political distrust.3833
Tunisia’s military, with about 35,000 personnel, has historically received fewer state resources
than the internal security services, and Tunisians view it as relatively apolitical. During the
transitional period, the military has led many internal security efforts amid attempts to establish
police capacity and professionalism. The army remains popular, but its expanded role may be
leading it to become overstretched.39
The Economy
For many Tunisians, the 2011 uprising was motivated by socioeconomic grievances as much as a
desire for political change. However, political instability, regional developments, and the
economic downturn in the European Union, Tunisia’s largest trading partner, have had a negative
impact on Tunisia’s economy. Declines in tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) have been
35
See ICG, “Combating Impunity, Restoring Security,” May 9, 2012.
See, e.g., Magharebia, “Tunisia: Political Isolation Law Divides Ennahda,” June 21, 2013.
37
Report of the U.N. Special Rapporteur on human rights and terrorism, Mission to Tunisia, March 14, 2012, U.N. doc.
A/HRC/20/14/Add. 1. The report suggested that arrests were still occasionally being made on the basis of the law,
despite the 2011 declaration of a general amnesty that “made the 2003 anti-terrorism law de facto obsolete.” In May
2013, Tunisia’s Interior Minister stated that the legislation remained in force but would be revised by the Assembly.
3834
The Economy
Tunisian politicians seeking to improve the economy face a difficult dilemma. On the one hand,
international financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund
(IMF), along with private-sector analysts, argue that deep reforms are necessary to improve
30
See ICG, “Combating Impunity, Restoring Security,” May 9, 2012.
See International Center for Transitional Justice, “Tunisia’s Specialized Judicial Chambers—Q&A with Judge Walid
Melki,” September 4, 2014.
32
Magharebia, “Tunisia: Political Isolation Law Divides Ennahda,” June 21, 2013.
33
Tunisia Live, “Slow Progress in Police Reform Since Revolution,” March 19, 2013; Al Arabiya, “Protesters Force
Tunisian Leaders From Police Memorial Ceremony,” October 18, 2013; Al Jazeera via BBC Monitoring, “Tunisia
Security Personnel Lament ‘Campaign’ To Weaken Establishment,” October 19, 2013.
3934
Reuters, “Overstretched Tunisian Army Must Focus On Militant Threat: Zbidi,” March 6, 2013.
3631
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Political Transition in Tunisia
particularly damaging. Social unrest over economic grievances has, in turn, contributed to
economic difficulties by creating a perception of instability among would-be tourists and
investors. Tunisia’s economic growth and job creation. Such reforms might target strict labor laws, the
regulatory environment for foreign investors and domestic entrepreneurs, and the fiscal weight of
state subsidies for basic goods. Reforms have been openly discussed but repeatedly delayed by a
series of transitional regimes that have argued that only a legitimately elected government can
take such steps.35 However, few (if any) leading candidates for office have spelled out how they
would approach the implementation of reforms, and any future effort to alter subsidies or job
protections could bring greater economic hardships to local households in the short run.
Some observers fear that a failure to deliver rapid economic benefits has led an
impatient public
to lose faith, at times, in the transition process.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy contracted by 1.9% in 2011,
compared to growth of 3.1% in 2010. It rebounded in 2012 with 3.6% growth, but perceived
political instability and regional insecurity led the IMF to reduce its growth projection for 2013 to
2.7%.40 Tunisia’s international credit ratings have been repeatedly downgraded. While the
unemployment rate has declined slightly since mid-2011, it remains high at 15.9%. The youth
employment rate has generally been significantly higher, particularly for college graduates.
In June 2013, the IMF and Tunisia agreed to a two-year, $1.75 billion IMF loan program designed
to provide Tunisia with a financing cushion in case of an adverse shock. The IMF has since
warned of growing fiscal strains and the slow pace of economic reforms, stating in October 2013
that “the most immediate challenge for Tunisia is to maintain macroeconomic stability while
moving ahead with the reform agenda in a difficult political environment.”41 Socioeconomic grievances were a key factor in the 2011
popular uprising. However, far from delivering tangible benefits to an impatient public, the postrevolutionary period has been marked by economic hardships due to political instability, negative
regional security trends, and the economic downturn in the European Union (EU), Tunisia’s
largest trading partner. Declines in tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) have been
particularly damaging. Social unrest over economic grievances has, in turn, contributed to
economic difficulties by creating a perception of instability among would-be tourists and
investors.
According to the IMF, the economy contracted by 1.9% in 2011, compared to growth of 3.1% in
2010. It rebounded in 2012 with 3.7% growth but has since struggled to reach 3%.36 Tunisia’s
international credit ratings have been repeatedly downgraded. While the unemployment rate has
declined slightly since mid-2011, it remains high at 15.9%. The youth employment rate is
reportedly significantly higher, particularly for college graduates. In June 2013, the IMF and
Tunisia agreed to a two-year, $1.75 billion IMF loan program designed to provide Tunisia with a
financing cushion in case of an adverse shock. The IMF has since warned of growing fiscal
strains and the slow pace of economic reforms.37
Tunisia is considered a middle-income country, and prior to 2011 had been one of the bestperforming non-oil-exporting Arab countries. Home and car ownership are widespread. Textile
exports, tourism, and phosphate mining are key sectors. Tunisia has also attempted to attract
foreign investment in its nascent oil and gas sector. However, Tunisia’s economic record long
masked disparities and structural problems. Wealth is concentrated in the capital and along the
eastern coast, while the interior has suffered from poverty and a lack of investment. Tunisians are
among the most educated people in North Africa, but the economy has generally created lowskilled and low-paid jobs, thus creating a large pool that is educated but underemployed. U.S.
government analysis has found that despite Tunisia’s reputation for regulatory reforms and
encouragement of foreign investment, structural barriers such as restrictive labor laws and “a lack
of effective institutions to ensure public sector accountability ... resulting in weak protection of
property rights” are the most significant constraints to growth.4238
Prior to 2011, Ben Ali family members and in-laws owned or controlled many of Tunisia’s
biggest companies, with shares sometimes allegedly obtained through political pressure or
corruption. Since the 2011 uprising, government agencies have seized various assets, including
shares of private companies, owned by members of the former first family. There is reportedly an
ongoing debate among officials over how best to sell off the confiscated assets, and over how to
prosecute or settle any related disputes with businessmen.43 Tunisian authorities have also
identified several countries where Ben Ali officials reportedly stashed substantial assets. Western
governments have cooperated with Tunisian efforts to freeze these assets and possibly return
them to Tunisia; however, the process for asset recovery has proven complex and challenging.
40
IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013; and “Statement by the IMF Mission at the End of a Visit to
Tunisia,” December 2, 2013.
4135
Reuters, “Tunisia Economy Needs 3 Years of ‘Painful’ Reform, PM Says,” October 13, 2014.
IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014.
37
IMF staff report, Arab Countries in Transition: Economic Outlook and Key Challenges, October 10, 2013.
4238
Millennium Challenge Corporation, Towards a New Economic Model for Tunisia: Identifying Tunisia’s Binding
Constraints to Broad-Based Growth, January 2013.
43
See, e.g., Maghreb Confidential, “A High-Level Rift Over Confiscated Firms,” November 21, 2013; IHS Global
Insight, “New Tunisian Legislation Opens Way for Wider Confiscation of Assets from Allies of Former President Ben
Ali,” December 18, 2013.
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Foreign Relations
The European Union (EU) is Tunisia’s largest trading partner, and provides trade benefits and aid.
France remains the largest bilateral source of foreign investment in Tunisia, despite recent
frictions over France’s support for Ben Ali and a suspicion of Islamist movements in some French
political circles36
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Political Transition in Tunisia
shares of private companies, owned by members of the former first family. There is reportedly an
ongoing debate among officials over how best to sell off the confiscated assets, and over how to
prosecute or settle any related disputes with businessmen.39 Tunisian authorities have also
identified several countries where Ben Ali officials reportedly stashed substantial assets. The
process for asset recovery has proven complex and challenging.
Foreign Relations
The EU is Tunisia’s largest trading partner and provides trade benefits and aid. Since the 2011
uprising, Tunisian officials have also appealed to the United States for military, financial, and
trade assistance. Under Al Nahda-led governments in 2012-2013, Tunisian officials stated a desire
to increase ties to Middle East and African states, and they pursued closer relations with Qatar
and Turkey, which provided aid and diplomatic support.44 The 40 The “Troika” government expressed
support for
the Syrian opposition, but opposition to foreign military intervention; the Interior
Ministry has
reportedly undertaken efforts to stop the flow of Tunisian combatants to Syria.45
Tunisians broadly sympathize with the Palestinians; Tunisia also hosted the Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO) headquarters in exile from 1982 to 1993. Tunisia had an interests office in
Israel from 1996 until the outbreak of the second Palestinian intifada, or uprising against the
Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, in 2000. Al Nahda leader Ghannouchi refers
to Israel as an “occupying state,” and has indicated that the creation of a Palestinian state is a
prerequisite for discussing Tunisian-Israeli relations.46 The Nahda-led government also hosted
visits by senior Hamas officials. Al Nahda’s position on Israel does not differ significantly from
other parties; indeed, some domestic critics accused Al Nahda of being overly conciliatory.47
Tunisia has generally sought cordial relations with its immediate neighbors. Tunisian officials
appear to hope that an end to turmoil in Libya will stabilize border areas and produce an
economic rebound that would allow Libya to reabsorb some of Tunisia’s low-skilled labor
surplus. Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki has led a campaign to revitalize the Arab Maghreb
Union, established in 1989 by Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Mauritania and long inactive
due to tensions between Morocco and Algeria. Tunis is also the current headquarters location of
the African Development Bank (AfDB), which receives financial support from the United States.
U.S. Policy and Aid
Obama Administration officials have stated strong support for Tunisia’s transition and a desire to
advance bilateral economic ties and deepen security cooperation. In 2012, for example, thenSecretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Tunis and stated that she was “a very strong champion
for Tunisian democracy and what has been accomplished here.”48 She also expressed support in
testimony before Congress for negotiations toward a bilateral free trade agreement.49 Still, U.S.
44
AFP, "La Tunisie de l'après Ben Ali veut retrouver toute sa place en Afrique," January 29, 2012; and, e.g., Reuters,
“Economics, Politics Underpin Qatar Aid to North Africa,” August 16, 2012.
45
Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddou reportedly stated during a parliamentary session in September 2013 that the
government had prevented 6,000 Tunisians from fighting in Syria. Tunisia Live, “Minister of Interior Says Government
Failed to Protect Brahmi,” September 19, 2013.
46
CRS interviews with Rachid Ghannouchi and Hamadi Jebali, Tunis, October 2011; and Ghannouchi statements at the
Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), November 30, 2011.
47
Al Nahda leaders opposed a proposed draft constitutional provision that would have criminalized normalization of
relations with Israel. See, e.g., OSC Analysis, “Hardened Foreign Policy Toward Israel Likely,” November 21, 2012.
48
State Department, “Secretary of State Clinton Delivers Remarks Following Meeting with Tunisia President
Marzouki,” February 25, 2012.
49
Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, February 28, 2012.
(continued...)
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Political Transition in Tunisia
policy attention has not focused as intensely on Tunisia as on Egypt and other states in the region.
President Obama reportedly met with Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki in New York City in
September 2013, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, but the President has not made a
public appearance with Tunisian leadersCriticism of Israel and Israeli
policies is common across Tunisia’s political spectrum, although Tunisia has also annually
welcomed Israeli tourists during a pilgrimage to a historic synagogue on Djerba Island. While in
power, the Nahda-led government hosted visits by senior Hamas officials.
Tunisia has generally sought cordial relations with its immediate neighbors. Turmoil in Libya is
both a security and an economic concern for Tunisian officials. Previously, work opportunities in
Libya helped to absorb some of Tunisia’s low-skilled labor surplus, and some Tunisians believe
that the large number of Libyan refugees has driven up prices in parts of Tunisia. Tunisian
President Moncef Marzouki has attempted, with little practical impact, to revitalize the Arab
Maghreb Union, which includes Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Mauritania but has long
been inactive due to tensions between Morocco and Algeria.
U.S. Policy and Aid
The Obama Administration has stated strong support for Tunisia’s transition and a desire to
advance bilateral economic ties and deepen security cooperation. Secretary of State John Kerry
traveled to Tunis in February 2014 to hold the first session of a new U.S.-Tunisia Strategy
Dialogue. He publicly congratulated Tunisians on the new constitution, which he stated was “a
model for others in the region and around the world,” and confirmed “on behalf of the American
people and President Obama our commitment to stand with Tunisia ... to help move down this
39
See, e.g., Maghreb Confidential, “A High-Level Rift Over Confiscated Firms,” November 21, 2013; IHS Global
Insight, “New Tunisian Legislation Opens Way for Wider Confiscation of Assets from Allies of Former President Ben
Ali,” December 18, 2013.
40
AFP, “La Tunisie de l'après Ben Ali veut retrouver toute sa place en Afrique,” January 29, 2012; and, e.g., Reuters,
“Economics, Politics Underpin Qatar Aid to North Africa,” August 16, 2012.
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road to democracy.”41 The United States has offered Tunisia a range of aid and new cooperation
programs designed to support the transition and its stability and security. Still, U.S. policy
attention has not focused as intensely on Tunisia as on Egypt and other states in the region.
In May 2013, then-Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Beth Jones stated
in congressional testimony that political transitions in the Middle East and North Africa are “the
foreign policy challenge of our time.”5042 She statedadded that “the tension between democratic values of
human rights, tolerance and pluralism and threats to those principles including extremism and
persecution of minorities is growing,” arguing that “these dynamics present new challenges and
opportunities for U.S. engagement.” During the 2013 political crisis in Tunisia, the State
Department indicated that “our diplomats in Tunisia are in touch with Tunisians from across the
political spectrum, including politicians, business leaders, and civil society actors, encouraging
Tunisians to resolve their outstanding issues through dialogue and peaceful means to build a safe,
prosperous future.”51
Despite this diplomatic outreach, bilateral
Although both U.S. and Tunisian leaders continue to express appreciation for bilateral ties,
relations appeared to cool following the violent attack
on the U.S. Embassyembassy and American school
in Tunis in September 2012. Then-Interior Minister
Ali Laraydh, an Al Nahda official (and
subsequent Prime Ministerprime minister), publicly apologized for
having initially “failed” to protect the Embassy
embassy; Presidential Guard members had to be dispatched
by the presidency during the attack to
provide emergency security.5243 The Tunisian government arrested hundreds of
suspects—many of
them Salafists—after the attack, and both Tunisian and U.S. authorities have
stated that Ansar al
Sharia in Tunisia was involved (see “Security Concerns” above).5344 However,
most suspects were most were later
released, and U.S. officials have suggested that those who were tried were not
those most
responsible.5445 In November 2013, FBI Director James Comey named Tunisia as one of
two two
places, with Libya, where AQIM, its affiliates and allies “pose a high threat to U.S. and
Western Western
interests... especially at embassies, hotels, and diplomatic facilities.”5546
U.S.-Tunisian relations date back over 200 years. A Joint Military Commission meets annually
and joint exercises are held regularly. Tunisia cooperates in NATO’s Operation Active Endeavor,
which provides counterterrorism surveillance in the Mediterranean; participates in NATO’s
Mediterranean Dialogue; and allows NATO ships to make port calls. Tunisia was the site of
significant World War II battles, and its territory was liberated by Allied forces in 1943 in
Operation Torch. A U.S. cemetery and memorial in Carthage (outside Tunis) holds nearly 3,000
U.S. military dead. During the Cold War, Tunisia pursued a pro-Western foreign policy despite a
brief experiment with leftist economic policy in the 1960s. Still, U.S.-Tunisian ties were strained
(...continued)
Progress toward an FTA is subject to an interagency process, among other factors.
50by the 1985 Israeli bombing of the Palestinian Liberation Organization headquarters in Tunis,
which some Tunisians viewed as having been carried out with U.S. approval.47
Tunisian officials have called for a free trade agreement (FTA). Then-Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton expressed support for an FTA in testimony before Congress in 2012, but there has been
41
State Department, “Secretary of State Kerry Holds News Conference in Tunis, Tunisia,” February 18, 2014.
House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa, Hearing on the President’s FY2014
Budget Proposal for Middle East and North Africa Programs, May 22, 2013.
51
State Department daily press briefing, August 7, 2013.
52
Associated Press (AP)43
Associated Press, “Tunisia’s Ruling Islamist Party Condemns US Embassy Attack,” September 15, 2012.
5344
State Department, “Terrorist Designations of Three Ansar al-Shari'a Organizations and Leaders,” January 10, 2014.
5445
On May 29, 2013, the U.S. Embassyembassy in Tunis released a public statement in which it criticized the relatively lenient
sentences given to several low-level suspects in the Tunis Embassyembassy attack, called for a “full investigation,” and stated
that the government of Tunisia had “failed” to uphold its stated commitment to oppose those who use violence.
5546
Statement Before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, hearing on “Threats to the
Homeland,” November 14, 2013.
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by the 1985 Israeli bombing of the Palestinian Liberation Organization headquarters in Tunis,
which some Tunisians viewed as having been carried out with U.S. approval.56
Tunisia is eligible for certain trade preferences under the Generalized System of Preferences
(GSP) Program. A bilateral trade investment framework agreement (TIFA) was signed in 2002,
and a bilateral investment treaty entered into force in 1993. In 2012, U.S. bilateral exports totaled
$594 million and imports totaled $738 million.57
47
Jonathan C. Randal, “Raid Left Scars on U.S.-Tunisia Ties,” The Washington Post, March 5, 1987.
42
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Political Transition in Tunisia
little public evidence of advancement toward such an end.48 A bilateral trade investment
framework agreement was signed in 2002, and a bilateral investment treaty came into force in
1993. In 2013, U.S. bilateral exports totaled $870 million and imports $749 million.49
U.S. Foreign Assistance
U.S. bilateral aid to Tunisia prior to 2011 was relatively limited and highly focused on military
assistance. Changes in Tunisia have led the Administration to work with Congress to identify and
reprogram hundreds of millions of dollars, including funding appropriated in prior years and for
other purposes, to support new programs and initiatives. As a result, the Obama Administration
has allocated over $450570 million in aid to Tunisia since 2011 (see Table 1, below).
Aid for “transitional support” to Tunisia includes a $100 million cash transfer in 2012 to help
Tunisia make its international loan payments; $30 million for the cost of sovereign loan
guarantees, which enabled Tunisia to raise $485 million on the international bond markets; and
$40 million for a bilateral “Enterprise Fund” to spur private investment. The latter two initiatives
were authorized in the FY2012 Department of State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Act
(Division I, P.L. 112-74). Additional funds for new loan guarantees and enterprise fund financing
are made available under the FY2014 Department of State, Foreign Operations, And Related
). The Administration has
also increased security cooperation and arms sales in consultation with Congress. About $62.8
million in bilateral aid was appropriated and allocated for Tunisia in FY2014, which the
Administration referred to as a “normalization” of aid after this initial, “urgent” reprogrammed
funding.50 The Administration has requested $66 million in bilateral aid in FY2015.
Aid for “transitional support” includes a $100 million cash transfer in 2012 to help Tunisia make
its international loan payments, a total of $55 million for the cost of two separate sovereign loan
guarantees—which enabled Tunisia to raise nearly $1 billion on the international bond markets—
and $60 million to date for a bilateral “Enterprise Fund” to spur private investment. The latter two
initiatives were authorized in the FY2012 Department of State and Foreign Operations
Appropriations Act (Division I, P.L. 112-74). Additional funds for loan guarantees and enterprise
fund financing were made available under the FY2014 Department of State, Foreign Operations,
And Related Programs Appropriations Act (Sec. 7041(g), Division K, P.L. 113-76).
Other U.S. “transitional support” programming has focused on strengthening civil society,
political parties, the media, and electoral processes. U.S. programs have also promoted
educational exchanges, technology training, and entrepreneurship, particularly among women and
youth. In January 2014, TunisianTunisia joined the Open Government Partnership, a U.S.-backed global
effort to make governments more transparent and accountable.5851
U.S. engagement with Tunisian security forces prior to 2011 was heavily focused on conventional
military grants and sales. As terrorist threats have increased, and as the relationship between
Tunisia’s government and its security services continues to evolve, the United States has provided
counterterrorism- and maritime security-focused assistance, along with programs designed to help
Tunisia reform its justice sector. Notable programs include at least $35 million in new State
Department-administeredsome $44 million in State Departmentadministered police and justice sector assistance, as well as $2832 million in new
Defense Department
“Section 1206” funding focusing on counterterrorism and border security.59
52 Tunisia is also one of ten
11 countries in the U.S. interagency Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism
Partnership (TSCTP), but it has not been a major recipient of funding under the initiative to date.
56
Jonathan C. Randal, “Raid Left Scars on U.S.-Tunisia Ties,” The Washington Post, March 5, 1987.
U.S. International Trade Commission data, accessed at http://dataweb.usitc.gov/.
58 Partnership.
48
Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, February 28, 2012.
Progress toward an FTA would be subject to an interagency process, among other factors.
49
U.S. International Trade Commission data, accessed at http://dataweb.usitc.gov/ on October 21, 2014.
50
State Department, FY2015 Congressional Budget Justification, Foreign Operations; statement of Acting Assistant
Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Beth Jones in U.S. Congress, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, May 22,
2013.
51
See State Department, “Open Government Partnership,” at http://www.state.gov/j/ogp/.
5952
See CRS Report RS22855, Security Assistance Reform: “Section 1206” Background and Issues for Congress, by
Nina M. Serafino; see also Section 1201 of the FY2014 National Defense Authorization Act, P.L. 113-66.
57
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Political Transition in Tunisia
In July 2014, the Defense Department notified Congress of its intent to agree to sell Tunisia
defense articles and services worth an estimated $700 million, including 12 Black Hawk
helicopters.
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Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Tunisia
$ Millions, Year of Appropriation and Account, Estimates as of December 2013
FY2009
FY2010
FY2012
(est.)
FY2011
FY2013
(est.)
FY2014
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2014
(est.)
FY2013
FY2015
(req.)
TOTAL
14.60
41.97
139.82
244.98
51.63
61.78106.64
67.38
65.98
Sub-Total,
Bilateral Aida
14.60
21.95
78.60
210.14
47.2
61.7820
62.78
65.98
ESF
0.80
2.00
57.85
154.8
14.47
30.00
30.00
FMF
12.00
18.00
17.12
29.5
20.55
20.00
25.00
IMET
1.70
1.95
1.95
1.84
2.16
2.30
2.00
INCLE
-
-
1.50
22.50
8.00
89.00
7.00
NADR
0.10
-
0.18
1.50
2.02
1.48
1.98
Regional/
Global
Programs &
Accounts
-
20.02
61.22
34.83
59.44
4.60
4.44
-
ESF
-
12.78
23.67
8.53
55.00 [loan
guarantees]
-
-
Democracy
Fund
-
5.15
0.74
5.15
-
-
-
DA
-
0.03
0.07
-
-
-
-
Transition
Initiatives
-
-
3.37
9.80
4.44
-
Complex Crisis
-
Complex
Crisis Fund
-
-
5.00
-
-
-
-
INCLE
-
2.06
0.98
0.05
-
-
-
NADR
-
-
3.06
2.40
-
-
Humanitarian
Assistance-
Humanitarian
(multiple
accounts)
-
-
3.43
2.05
-
-
-
Defense
Department
“Section
1206”
-
-
20.90
6.85
-
4.60
-
Source: State Department, Bureau of Foreign Assistance, response to CRS, January 2014; Congressional Budget
Justifications for Foreign Operations, FY2011-FY2014FY2015.
Notes: Some allocations for FY2013 are still being determined. Other than “Section 1206,” does not include
non-State Department/USAID foreign assistance resources. (See CRS Report RS22855, Security Assistance Reform:
“Section 1206” Background and Issues for Congress, by Nina M. Serafino.) Multi-country programs that may, in part,
benefit benefit
Tunisian participants are also excluded. Humanitarian assistance refers to fiscal year of obligation, not
source source
fiscal year of funds. Totals may not reflect rounding.
ESF= = Economic Support Fund; FMF= = Foreign Military Financing; IMET= = International Military Education and
Training; INCLE= = International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement; NADR= = Nonproliferation,
Antiterrorism, Demining and Related Programs; DA= = Development Assistance; “-“= = none or to be
determined.
a.
Includes funding appropriated for other countries and purposes and reprogrammed for Tunisia.
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International financial institutions, which receive substantial U.S. funding, have pledged aid for
Tunisia, mostly in the form of concessional loans. Group of Eight (G8) member states, including
the United States, haveinitially sought to coordinate aid through the Deauville Partnership, initiated in
May 2011.60 Separately, Tunisia has received loans , although the current status of the initiative is unclear.53 Tunisia has also received loans
and grants from Gulf states, notably Qatar.61
54 Such support may contribute to U.S. policy goals of
encouraging Tunisia’s stability and economic
growth; it may also dilute U.S. diplomatic influence.
Congressional Actions
Congress has recently restricted anticipated Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)
programming in Tunisia. The Administration had planned a roughly $20 million MCC
“threshold” grant for Tunisia focusing on addressing constraints to economic growth and job
creation.62 However, P.L. 113-76 states that “none of the funds made available by this Act or prior
Acts... shall be available for a threshold program in a country that is not currently a candidate
country,” i.e., eligible for MCC assistance. Tunisia’s relatively high income level currently makes
it ineligible, although its income had dipped to an eligible level in FY2011, the year from which
the influence.
Congressional Actions
Congress has shaped U.S. policy toward Tunisia through its authorization and appropriation of
foreign assistance, its review of arms sales and other security cooperation efforts, and its
oversight activities. Recently, the FY2014 Department of State, Foreign Operations, And Related
Programs Appropriations Act (P.L. 113-76) prohibits any foreign assistance from being used to
support a Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) “threshold” program in a country that is not
a candidate for a full MCC compact. The Administration had planned a roughly $20 million MCC
“threshold” grant for Tunisia focusing on addressing constraints to economic growth and job
creation.55 However, Tunisia’s relatively high income level currently makes it ineligible for a
compact, although its income had dipped to an eligible level in FY2011, the year from which the
MCC intended to draw funding. The Joint Explanatory Statement on P.L. 113-76 refers
specifically to Tunisia, stating that, “Efforts by the Administration to provide MCC assistance to
countries that do not meet MCC criteria undermine the integrity of the MCC model.”
In 2012, some Members of Congress called for cutting U.S. aid over Tunisia’s handling of an
alleged suspect in the Benghazi terrorist attack.6356 The suspect, Ali Ani al Harzi, a Tunisian, was
detained in Turkey and transferred to Tunisian custody in October 2012. U.S. investigators were
reportedly initially denied permission to question Al Harzi in Tunisian custody (although
permission was reportedly eventually granted), and he was released from detention in January
2013 due to a purported lack of evidence. Al Harzi was later reportedly implicated in the two
political assassinations in 2013 and charged in Tunisia with belonging to a terrorist organization.6457
Outlook
As Congress continues to weigh the implications of ongoing political transitions and security
challenges in North Africa for U.S. policy, foreign assistance, and counterterrorism practices,
possible considerations and questions include the following:
•
To what extent is Tunisia a priority for U.S. policy? What are the prospects for
U.S. influence on the future evolution of events in Tunisia? How should the
United States shape its future foreign aid programs?
60
The Partnership
53
The partnership includes a transition support fund administered by the World Bank; see Alina . See testimony of Alina
Romanowski, Deputy
Assistant USAID Administrator, Middle East Bureau, testimony before the Senate in U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on
Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on
Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs, November 21, 2013.
6154
See, e.g., Reuters, “Qatar Bank Grants Tunisia $500 Mln To Support Currency Reserve,” November 24, 2013.
6255
State Department, “U.S. Government Assistance to Tunisia,” December 14, 2012. On MCC threshold grants, see
CRS Report RL32427, Millennium Challenge Corporation, by Curt Tarnoff.
6356
See, e.g., The Cable, "“Graham Threatens Tunisia Over U.S. Access to Benghazi Suspect,"” October 31, 2012;
Representative Frank Wolf, "“Cut Off Aid to Tunisia in Light of Obstructing Benghazi Investigation,"” December 11,
2012; and The Washington Times, "“Benghazi Attack Suspect'’s Release Spurs Calls to Punish Tunisia,"” January 9,
2013.
6457
Al Jazeera, “The Benghazi Link to Tunisia'’s Assassinations,” September 12, 2013.
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•
To what extent is Tunisia a priority for U.S. policy? What are the prospects for
U.S. influence on the future evolution of events in Tunisia? How should the
United States shape its future foreign aid programs?
•
To what degree do Tunisia-based extremist groups present a transnational
security threat? What is the likely trajectory of groups likeTunisia-based or Tunisian-led
groups such as Ansar al Sharia in Tunisia?
•
How is Tunisia’s new constitution being interpreted and implemented? How is
Tunisia approaching the issue of reforming the internal security services and
providing for transitional justice?
•
Is the next round of electionsAre the national elections scheduled for late 2014 likely to be free, fair, and
nonviolent?
•
Which What groups or individuals are likely to perform well in these elections? Which
individuals and groups currently enjoy popular credibility in Tunisia?
Which emergent Which
types of coalitions among political and interest groups are likely to
endure? What groups or individuals are likely to perform well in future elections emerge from
the elections, and what is their likely stance on issues such as foreign policy and
domestic reforms?
•
What is the likely course of Tunisia’s economy and how is it likely to impact
stability? What is the appropriate role of
Tunisia’s international partners in
helping Tunisia to promote economic growth
and job creation, and to address
regional inequalities? What steps, if any, can or
should the United States take to
promote bilateral trade and investment?
Author Contact Information
Alexis Arieff
Analyst in African Affairs
aarieff@crs.loc.gov, 7-2459
Congressional Research Service
Carla E. Humud
Analyst in Middle Eastern and African Affairs
chumud@crs.loc.gov, 7-7314
1617