Nigeria: Current Issues and U.S. Policy

Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Lauren Ploch Analyst in African Affairs June 4, 2010April 1, 2011 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33964 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Nigeria Summary Nigeria, the most populous African nation with an estimated 149 million people, is one of the United States government’s key strategic partners on the continent. It is Africa’s largest producer of oil and is regularly the fifth largest oil exporter to the United States. By some estimates, Nigeria could rank among the world’s top five exporters of oil within a few years, although social unrest and corruption in the country’s Niger Delta region have posed significant challenges to oil production. As Africa’s second largest economy, Nigeria’s stability and prosperity affect not only those in the market for Nigerian oil, but the entire region. The country has faced intermittent political turmoil and economic crisis since gaining independence in 1960. Political life has been scarred by conflict along both ethnic and geographic lines and misrule has undermined the authority and legitimacy of the state apparatus. After 16 years of military rule, Nigeria made a transition to civilian governance in 1999, when Olusegun Obasanjo, a former general, was elected president. In 2007, Nigerians witnessed the country’s first civilian transfer of power with the election of a new president, Umaru Yar’Adua. Nigeria continues to face serious social and economic challenges. Although Nigeria’s oil and natural gas revenues are estimated at over $50 billion per year, its human development indicators are among the world’s lowest, and a majority of the population suffer from extreme poverty. Fluctuations in world oil prices have posed additional problems for the Nigerian government, which relies on the energy sector for over 85% of revenues. Nigeria remains relatively stable, although intercommunal conflicts in parts of the country are common. Thousands have been killed and many more wounded in periodic religious clashes. The attempted terror attack on an American airliner by a Nigerian passenger on December 25, 2009, has heightened concerns regarding airport security in Africa and the possible radicalization of African Muslims. Under former President Obasanjo, Nigeria emerged as a major player in Africa. The government has helped to resolve political disputes in several African countries, and the country ranks 4th among troop contributors to United Nations peacekeeping missions around the world. Nigeria’s most recent general elections, which the U.S. State Department called “deeply flawed,” were held in April 2007. Despite controversy surrounding his election, President Yar’Adua’s pledges of reform were welcomed by many Nigerians, but questions regarding his health and the pace of reform increased during his tenure. Yar’Adua was hospitalized in Saudi Arabia in November 2009 for a heart condition and did not return to Nigeria until February 2010. Last seen in public in November, prior to his hospitalization, the President’s prolonged absence heightened fears of political instability. His death was announced on May 5. His Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, who had served as acting president since February, was subsequently sworn in as head of state. He has pledged to uphold President Yar’Adua’s reform agenda and to prioritize anticorruption efforts, peace and development in the Niger Delta, and electoral reform in preparation for the upcoming 2011 elections. The Obama Administration has expressed support for these initiatives, and in April established a U.S.-Nigeria Binational Commission, a strategic dialogue to address issues of mutual concern. Congressional Research Service Nigeria Contents Overview ....................................................................................................................................1 Recent Developments..................................................................................................................3 Background ................................................................................................................................5 The Transition to Democratic Rule: 1998 and 1999 Elections ................................................5 The 2003 Elections ...............................................................................................................5 2007 Elections ......................................................................................................................6 Electoral Administration Challenges................................................................................7 Electoral Malfeasance and Political Violence...................................................................8 The Yar’Adua Administration ............................................................................................. 10 The Death of President Yar’Adua .................................................................................. 10 Politically Motivated Corruption Charges? .......................................................................... 12 Current Economic and Social Conditions .................................................................................. 15 Oil Sector Reforms ............................................................................................................. 15 Financial Sector Reforms and Corruption Concerns............................................................. 16 Misallocation of State Funds ......................................................................................... 17 The Effects of Corruption.............................................................................................. 18 HIV/AIDS .......................................................................................................................... 18 Avian Flu ............................................................................................................................ 19 Islamic Sharia Law ............................................................................................................. 19 Concerns Regarding the Possible Radicalization of Nigerian Muslims................................. 20 Conflict in the Niger Delta .................................................................................................. 21 Background of the Struggle........................................................................................... 21 Criminality and Violence............................................................................................... 21 President Yar’Adua Offers Amnesty to Delta Militants .................................................. 23 Efforts to Address Environmental and Development Challenges .................................... 23 Effects on the Oil Industry and the World Market .......................................................... 25 Abuses by Security Forces .................................................................................................. 26 International Relations .............................................................................................................. 26 The Bakassi Peninsula................................................................................................... 27 Issues for Congress ................................................................................................................... 27 Administration Policy on Nigeria ........................................................................................ 27 U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Maritime Security Issues .......................................................... 28 Nigeria’s Role in Regional Stability .............................................................................. 29 U.S. Assistance to Nigeria ............................................................................................. 30 Recent Congressional Interest ............................................................................................. 31 Figures Figure 1. Map of Nigeria........................................................................................................... 34 Tables Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Nigeria ............................................................................... 33 Congressional Research Service Nigeria Contacts Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 35 Congressional Research Service Nigeria Overview Nigeria is considered a key power on the African continent, not only because of its size, but also because of its political and economic role in the region. One in five people in Sub-Saharan Africa calls Nigeria home. Nigeria’s economy is Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest, and it is one of the world’s major sources of high quality sweet crude oil and natural gas. Nigeria has mediated conflicts throughout the continent, and its troops have played a critical role in peace and stability operations in the region. The country ranks 4th among troop contributors to United Nations (U.N.) peacekeeping missions around the world. Nigeria, which is roughly twice the size of California, is also home to Africa’s second largest HIV/AIDS-infected population and has the continent: Elections and Issues for Congress Summary Nigeria, Africa’s largest producer of oil and its largest democracy, is one of the U.S. government’s key strategic partners on the continent. It is Africa’s most populous country, with over 150 million people, roughly half Muslim and half Christian, and its second-largest economy. Diplomatic relations with Nigeria, which is regularly the fourth- or fifth-largest oil exporter to the United States, are strong, and the country is a major recipient of U.S. foreign assistance. After 16 years of military rule, Nigeria made the transition to civilian governance in 1999, and the country subsequently emerged as a powerful actor in African politics. The government has helped to resolve political disputes in several African countries, and the country ranks fourth among troop contributors to U.N. peacekeeping missions around the world. Nigeria faces serious social and economic challenges, however, that some analysts contend threaten both the stability of the state and the region, and which may affect global oil markets. The country today is relatively stable, but it has faced intermittent political turmoil and economic crises since gaining independence in 1960. Political life has been scarred by conflict along ethnic, religious, and geographic lines, and misrule has undermined the authority and legitimacy of the state. Nigeria’s oil and natural gas revenues are estimated at over $60 billion per year, but its human development indicators are among the world’s lowest, and a majority of the population suffers from extreme poverty. The Nigerian government relies on the oil sector for over 85% of revenues. By some estimates, Nigeria could rank among the world’s top five exporters of oil within a few years, but social unrest, criminality, and corruption in the country’s oil-producing Niger Delta region have cut output by one-fifth since 2006. Intercommunal conflicts in parts of the country are common. Resentment between the northern and southern regions of the country, and among communities in the central region, has led periodically to considerable unrest and population displacement. Thousands have been killed and many more wounded in periodic ethno-religious clashes in the past decade. The attempted terror attack on an American airliner by a Nigerian passenger on December 25, 2009, and the recent resurgence of a militant Islamist group, Boko Haram, has heightened concerns regarding the possible radicalization of African Muslims. A series of recent bombings led the government to adopt new anti-terrorism measures in early 2011. Nigeria’s April 2011 elections are seen by many as a critical test of the government’s commitment to democracy. The State Department referred to the last elections, in 2007, as deeply flawed, and some contend that Nigeria, which was ruled by the military until 1999, has not held a free and fair general election since the return to civilian rule. Perceived ethnic and religious differences have been politicized by political elites. The potential for political violence to mar the elections is significant and could further compound other security challenges. Credible elections, on the other hand, could confer the legitimacy the government needs to pass reforms deemed critical to addressing corruption and other development challenges. The Obama Administration has been supportive of the Nigerian government’s recent reform initiatives, including anti-corruption efforts, economic and electoral reforms, energy sector privatization, and programs to promote peace and development in the Niger Delta. In 2010, the Administration established a U.S.-Nigeria Binational Commission, a strategic dialogue to address these and other issues of mutual concern. Congress regularly monitors political developments in Nigeria and has consistently expressed concerns with corruption and human rights abuses. Congress also provides oversight for over $600 million in U.S. foreign assistance programs. Congressional Research Service Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Contents Overview ....................................................................................................................................1 Political Context .........................................................................................................................2 The 2003 Elections ...............................................................................................................3 2007 Elections ......................................................................................................................3 The 2011 Elections: Challenges and Opportunities ................................................................5 Development Challenges and Reform Initiatives ....................................................................... 10 Reforms to the Petroleum and Energy Sectors ..................................................................... 10 Financial Sector Reforms .................................................................................................... 11 Efforts to Combat Corruption.............................................................................................. 12 Social Issues and Security Concerns.......................................................................................... 15 Islamic Sharia Law ............................................................................................................. 15 Sectarian Violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt ........................................................................ 15 Boko Haram and Militant Islam in Nigeria .......................................................................... 16 Conflict in the Niger Delta .................................................................................................. 18 Background of the Struggle........................................................................................... 18 Criminality and Violence............................................................................................... 18 Amnesty Offer for Delta Militants................................................................................. 20 Efforts to Address Environmental and Development Challenges .................................... 21 Effects on the Oil Industry and the World Market .......................................................... 22 Abuses by Security Forces .................................................................................................. 23 HIV/AIDS .......................................................................................................................... 23 International Relations .............................................................................................................. 24 Issues for Congress ................................................................................................................... 24 Administration Policy on Nigeria ........................................................................................ 24 U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Maritime Security Issues .......................................................... 25 Nigeria’s Role in Regional Stability .............................................................................. 26 U.S. Assistance to Nigeria ............................................................................................. 26 Recent Congressional Interest ............................................................................................. 28 Figures Figure 1. Map of Nigeria........................................................................................................... 29 Contacts Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 30 Congressional Research Service Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Overview Nigeria is considered a key power on the African continent, not only because of its size, but also because of its political and economic role in the region. One in five people in Sub-Saharan Africa calls Nigeria home. Nigeria’s economy is Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest, and it is one of the world’s major sources of high-quality sweet crude oil and natural gas. Nigerian leaders have mediated conflicts throughout Africa, and Nigerian troops have played a critical role in peace and stability operations in the region. The country ranks fourth among troop contributors to United Nations peacekeeping missions around the world. Nigeria, which is roughly twice the size of California, is also home to world’s second-largest HIV/AIDS-infected population and has Africa’s highest tuberculosis burden. According to one senior U.S. foreign policy analyst, “no country’s fate is so decisive for the continent. No other country across a range of issues has the power so thoroughly to shape outcomes Nigeria at a Glance elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.”1 Despite its oil wealth, Nigeria remains highly underdeveloped. Poor governance has severely limited infrastructure development and the provision of social services, hindering economic development and growth and leaving much of the country mired mired in poverty. The government’s human human rights record is poor. Population: 149 million Pop. Growth Rate: 1.999% Independence: October 1960 Comparative Area: Slightly larger than twice the size of California Religions: 50% Muslim, 40% Christian, 10% indigenous beliefs Languages: English (official), 250 local languages Literacy: 68% Ethnic and religious strife have been Infant Mortality: 94.35 deaths/1,000 live births common in Nigeria, and perceived Life Expectancy: 46.9 years differences have been politicized by Prevalence of HIV: 3.1% manipulated 3.1% by some political elites. The country is Prevalence of HIV: is composed of over 250 distinctethnic Real GDP Growth: 5.6% (2009 estimate), 6.7% (2010 forecast) ethnic groups, of which ten10 account for for nearly 80% of the total population. Nominal GDP Per Capita: $1,191 population. The northern HausaUnemployment: 4.9% Fulani, the southwestern Yoruba,The northern Hausa and Fulani, the Unemployment: 4.9% southwestern Yoruba, and the Exports: $45.4 billion and the southeastern Ibo have traditionally traditionally been the most politically active and Imports: $42.1 billion politically active and dominant.dominant. Almost half of the External Debt: $9.689 billion Almost half of the country’s population, some 75 million people primarily residing in Source: The CIA World Fact Book, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), International Monetary Fund, World Bank. primarily residing in the northern half of the country, are Muslim. Divisions between ethnic groups, between north and south, and between Christian and Muslim Nigerians often stem from perceived differences in access to land and social and economic development. More than 15 14,000 Nigerians are believed to have been have been killed in local clashes in the last decade, and some three million have reportedly been periodically displaced by those clashes. 2sparked by these tensions in the last decade, and millions periodically displaced. 2 In the southern Niger Delta region, 1 2 Robert I. Rotberg, “Nigeria: Elections and Continuing Challenges,” Council on Foreign Relations, April 2007. Ibid., p. 20. Congressional Research Service 1 Nigeria Nigeria is a federal republic composed of Human Rights Watch (HRW), A Human Rights Agenda for Candidates in Nigeria’s 2011 Elections, March 2011. Congressional Research Service 1 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress simmering conflict and criminality have been fueled by regional grievances related to oil production in the area. Political Context Nigeria, which gained its independence from Britain in 1960, is a federal republic composed of 36 states; its political structure is similar to that of the United States. The country has a bicameral legislature with a 109-member Senate and a 360member360-member House of Representatives. Its president, legislators, and governors are elected on four -year terms. Nigeria’s most recent elections were held on April 14 and 21, 2007.3 Many, including the U.S. State Department, maintain that the country is still in political transition,4 and Human Rights Watch contends that “Nigeria has not held a free and fair general election since the end of military rule.”5 Nigeria was ruled by the military for almost three decades after independence, and much of its political history has been dominated by a contest for power between the north and southern regions. Northern military leaders dominated Nigerian politics until 1999, when the country made the transition to democracy. Today, the Hausa remain dominant in the military and the federal government, but have lost significant power in many state governments. Since the election of President Obasanjo in 1999, there has been a de-facto power sharing arrangement between the north and the south, in which the presidency is expected to rotate between the regions every two terms. The main presidential contenders in the April 2007 election were northerners, and with the retirement of former President Obasanjo, who was from the southwest region of the country, Yar’Adua, a former northern governor, assumed the office. Upon Yar’Adua’s death, his Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, took office for the remainder of his first term, raising questions as to whether the ruling party would chose another northern candidate to run in the 2011 presidential race or support a possible run for the office by the sitting President. Some suggest that tension between the north and the south over perceived inequities in economic and educational development has the potential to lead to widespread political instability. Nigeria’s 2006 census drew controversy over its representation of the regional breakdown of the population, reportedly concluding that 53.4% of the population lives in the north. This could ultimately affect the country’s complex system for distributing oil revenues, which are derived from oil reserves in Southern Nigeria. Resentment between the northern and southern regions of the country, and among communities in the central region, has led periodically to considerable unrest and population displacement. According to the International Crisis Group, an estimated 8,000 Nigerians were killed in sectarian clashes between 1999 and 2002, and up to 6,000 may have been the target of ethnic or religious killings. 6 Some reports suggest that those numbers may be much higher. Over 1,000 were reportedly killed during fighting in the central town of Yelwa and northern city of Kano in May 2004.7 In November 2008, unrest in the central city of Jos in Plateau state, spurred by disputed local elections, resulted in at least 300 deaths, and over 700 hundred were killed during clashes in several northern states in July 2009.8 Intercommunal violence in Jos and surrounding villages broke out again in early 2010, displacing an estimated 18,000 and resulting in 300-500 deaths in 3 State gubernatorial and state legislative elections were held on April 14. The following week, on April 21, the presidential and federal legislative elections were held. 4 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 2006-2008. 5 Human Rights Watch, Election or ‘Selection’? Human Rights Abuses and Threats to Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria, April 2007, and “Nigeria: Presidential Election Marred by Fraud, Violence,” April 24, 2007. 6 The International Crisis Group (ICG), “Want in the Midst of Plenty,” Africa Report No. 113, July 19, 2006, p. 15. 7 “Timeline: Tensions in Nigeria,” Al Jazeera, March 17, 2010. 8 Human Rights Watch, Arbitrary Killings By Security Forces, July 20, 2009 and “Nigeria Survivors Describe Night of Terror by Sect,” AP, August 4, 2009. Congressional Research Service 2 Nigeria January and an estimated 500 in March. While these clashes are sometimes described as religious in nature, many analysts suggest that much of the violence in central areas such as Jos has been driven by a struggle for political control of land, water, and state resources between predominantly Christian agrarian communities who considered themselves indigenous to the region and traditionally nomadic and pastoralist Muslim Hausas, rather than by religious differences. Some 300 individuals were arrested in the wake of the clashes, but human rights groups have criticized the government for failing to punish those responsible for previous outbreaks of violence. 9 Recent Developments On May 5, 2010, the Nigerian government announced the death of ailing President Umaru Yar’Adua, who had been admitted to a Saudi hospital for a heart condition in November 2009. Yar’Adua, who was not seen in public after his hospitalization, had been transferred back to Nigeria in February but was unable to resume his presidential duties. His prolonged absence from office had raised concerns both in Nigeria and abroad about a power vacuum within the government. His Vice President, former Delta State governor Goodluck Jonathan, who had been named acting president by the National Assembly in February, was sworn in as Nigeria’s new President on May 6. He will serve in the position until the next elections, expected in 2011. Yar’Adua’s death and Jonathan’s formal swearing-in resolves the uncertainty regarding Jonathan’s legitimacy as head of state and reduces tensions in the short-term, but fears of a power struggle within the ruling party remain. President Jonathan has yet to comment on whether he will run for the presidency in 2011, and several influential northern leaders within the party, including former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida, 68, and 2007 presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, 63, have already declared their intention to vie for the office. 10 Jonathan’s choice for vice president, Namadi Sambo, a former architect who was elected governor of the northern state of Kaduna in 2007, is seen as having relatively little political experience, and his appointment is considered by some as a sign that Jonathan may be considering a run for the presidency in 2011. Prior to President Yar’Adua return to Nigeria in February, government officials stated that he continued to make executive decisions from his hospital in Saudi Arabia; some observers contend that he was, in reality, too ill to make those decisions, which were instead made by a group of close advisors, including his wife, who strictly controlled access to the President.11 Goodluck Jonathan, after being named acting president, moved to consolidate his authority, dissolving and reconstituting the cabinet in March, while attempting to allay the concerns of northerners that they would be marginalized by a new administration. He vowed to continue President Yar’Adua’s reform initiatives, emphasizing a commitment to electoral reform and anti-corruption efforts, and he named a Presidential Advisory Council to help speed implementation of these and other highpriority programs. These pledges were welcomed by the Obama Administration, which recognized the acting president as the “recognized leader of Nigeria” and warned against efforts 9 “Nigeria: Inaction Paves Way for More Bloodshed, Observers Say,” IRIN, February 1, 2010. 10 Babangida seized power in 1985 from Major General Muhammadu Buhari in a military coup and ruled until 1993, when he transferred power to a civilian government that was subsequently overthrown by General Sani Abacha. Abubakar, who formerly served as Vice President under Obasanjo, ran as the presidential candidate of an opposition party in the 2007 elections but has recently rejoined the ruling party. 11 See, for example, John Campbell, “Nigeria Fragmented and Unstable,” Huffington Post, March 5, 2010, and “On Her Majesty’s Secret Service,” Africa Confidential, March 5. 2010. Congressional Research Service 3 Nigeria by others to “upset Nigeria’s stability and create renewed uncertainty in the democratic process.”12 Responding to calls from civil society activists and donors, including the United States, the acting president removed Maurice Iwu, Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), from office in late April 2010. The Nigerian government is under pressure from donors to implement further reforms as the 2011 elections approach. The National Assembly is currently considering new legislation on elections, and on June 3 approved the first amendments to the country’s 1999 constitution. If approved by two-thirds of the state legislatures, the amendments would make a variety of changes to the constitution, addressing such issues as presidential transfer of powers; qualifications of gubernatorial and parliamentary candidates, including independent candidates, and chairman and members of the national and state electoral commissions; funding for the electoral commission; and the timeframe for elections. President Jonathan has pledged to solidify peace and development initiatives in the Niger Delta, the country’s core oil producing region. Among those replaced in his cabinet reshuffle was the Minister for the Niger Delta, a post created under former President Yar’Adua. As acting president, Goodluck Jonathan approved an initiative to spend $180 million on skills centers in the Delta, a key pledge in Yar’Adua’s amnesty and reconciliation program. The second phase of that program, which focuses on the rehabilitation of militants, is scheduled to begin in June. The peace process is fragile, and the federal government’s ability to deliver on promised infrastructure improvements and job creation will be critical to addressing regional grievances. According to Nigerian government figures, over 15,000 militants, including several high-profile militant commanders, have accepted the government’s amnesty offer since August 2009.13 Like his predecessor, President Jonathan has identified increasing domestic gasoline production and power generation capacity as a key priorities for his government (see “Oil Sector Reform” below). In May 2010, with two of Nigeria’s existing four oil refineries running at only 60 percent capacity, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation signed an agreement worth estimated at $23 billion with China for the construction of three new refineries and a petrochemicals complex.14 Nigeria is also in the process of increasing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which are expected to surpass revenues derived from oil exports in the next decade. In March, Nigeria began transmitting natural gas to Benin, Togo, and Ghana through the new West Africa Gas Pipeline. The initiative, led by Chevron, had been delayed due to supply shortages resulting from sabotage to production facilities in the Niger Delta. Reports suggest that gas supplies have increased significantly as pipelines have been repaired since the militants’ latest ceasefire, and several new gas-fired power plants are expected to begin generating electricity in 2010.15 In April 2010, President Jonathan, who was still serving as acting president at the time, participated in the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC. During his visit he met with President Barack Obama at the White House, with whom he discussed a range of security issues, including counterterrorism. President Obama expressed his support for Jonathan’s electoral reform efforts. Following his visit, the governments of the United States and Nigeria inaugurated a new U.S.-Nigeria Binational Commission (see “Administration Policy on Nigeria”). 12 State Department Daily Press Briefing on February 26, 2010; Office of the State Department Spokesman, “Political Situation in Nigeria, March , 2010; and Briefing by Johnnie Carson, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, on February 24, 2010. 13 “On the MEND: The Politics of Surrender in Nigeria,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, December 2009. 14 “Two Nigerian Refineries Running at 60 Pct Capacity,” Reuters, March 30, 2010. 15 Oxford Analytica, “Electricity Output Takes Turn for the Better,” December 16, 2009. Congressional Research Service 4 Nigeria During then-Acting President Jonathan’s April visit to Washington, DC, he made several public commitments to “restoring Nigeria’s image” abroad, both as a key partner in regional peace and counterterrorism efforts, but also in ending the “culture of impunity” in Nigeria by addressing corruption and human rights concerns.16 The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has faced several charges of corruption against senior leaders, including Vincent Ogbulafor, who recently resigned as national chairman of the party to stand trial for fraud. Human rights groups have petitioned President Jonathan to address a series of reports of gross human rights abuses by Nigerian security forces, notably the police. 17 Human Rights Watch called the Jonathan’s removal of the justice minister and attorney general a “welcome first step,” but urged further action from the President on the issues of inter-communal violence, the conduct of security forces, corruption, violence and poverty in the Niger Delta, and free and fair elections. 18 Background The Transition to Democratic Rule: 1998 and 1999 Elections After years of military rule, Olusegun Obasanjo, who had formerly served as a military head of state from 1976 to 1979, was elected President of Nigeria on February 27, 1999 in nationwide elections. Prior to the presidential election, Obasanjo’s party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), won the majority of municipalities in local elections, held in December 1998, while the All People’s Party (APP) came in a distant second, followed by the Alliance for Democracy (AD). In the governorship elections in early January 1999, the PDP also dominated. Atiku Abubakar, a northerner who was elected governor of Adamawa State in the January elections, was chosen by the PDP as the running mate of Obasanjo, a Yoruba from southwestern Nigeria. The APP and AD nominated Chief Olu Falae, a Yoruba, as their joint candidate for president. A former Nigerian security chief from the north, Chief Umaru Shinakfi, was chosen as Falae’s running mate. General Obasanjo was elected president by a wide margin.19 On May 29, 1999, he was sworn in as president, and the Nigerian Senate approved 42 of 49 members of his cabinet. The 2003 Elections In April 2003, Nigerians went to the polls for the second time under a civilian government. President Obasanjo was nominated by his party to serve a second-term. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) picked another former military leader, General Muhammadu Buhari, as its presidential candidate. Meanwhile, the former rebel leader, Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, who led the secessionist region of Biafra in Nigeria’s civil war in the 1960s, was picked as the presidential 16 President Jonathan has used the term “culture of impunity” in reference to Nigeria in several speeches, including one given in February 9, 2010, as quoted in “Again, We’ve Succeeded in Moving Nigeria Forward - Jonathan,” Daily Champion (Lagos), February 10, 2010. 17 See, for example, the Open Society Justice Initiative and the Network of Police Reform in Nigeria, Criminal Force: Torture, Abuse, and Extrajudicial Killings by the Nigerian Police Force, May 2010; and Human Rights Watch, Arbitrary Killings by Security Forces, July 20, 2009. 18 Human Rights Watch, “Nigeria: Acting President Should Address Abuses,” February 12, 2010. 19 Obasanjo won 62.8% of the votes (18.7 million), while his challenger, Chief Olu Falae, received 37.2% of the votes (11.1 million). In the Senate elections, the PDP won 58% of the votes, APP 23%, and AD 19%. In the elections for the House of Representatives, PDP received 59% of the votes, AD 22%, and APP 20%. Congressional Research Service 5 Nigeria candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). The National Democratic Party (NDP) picked former foreign minister Ike Nwachukwu as its presidential candidate. President Obasanjo was reelected to a second term, and his PDP party won in legislative elections.20 The elections, however, were marred by serious irregularities and electoral fraud, according to both domestic and international election observers. Among the irregularities noted, much emphasis was placed on “inadequate election administration.” Controversy surrounded the voter registration process, the certification of candidates, and poor logistical preparations for the elections. One election official allegedly admitted that the voters’ register was “25-30% fiction.”21 Reports of electoral malfeasance, or rigging, were also noted. Ballot box stuffing, falsification of election result forms, and threats of violence were among the most serious charges. In some states, observers noted “systematic attempts at all stages of the voting process to alter the election results.”22 Although reports of rigging varied widely among states, the extent of irregularities caused some to suggest that they “compromised the integrity of the elections where they occurred.”23 The European Union delegation noted that in at least six states “the minimum standards for democratic elections were not met.”24 Several election results were later overturned. In April 2006, the Nigerian Senate considered a bill to amend the constitution. One of the contentious proposals would have removed the two-term limitation and allowed a third-term presidency; Obasanjo supporters had reportedly pushed for this step for months. The Nigerian Senate rejected the legislation in May 2006. 2007 Elections Nigeria’s third national elections since the country’s return to democratic rule were held April 14 and 21, 2007, amid widespread allegations of electoral mismanagement and fraud. The ruling party’s presidential candidate, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (then governor of Katsina state in northern Nigeria) was strongly supported by President Obasanjo. Yar’Adua’s running mate, Goodluck Jonathan, had served as Governor of Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta. Yar’Adua was declared the winner with over 24.6 million votes, or 70%. Some critics suggest that Obasanjo “hand-picked” Yar’Adua in order to retain political influence after he left office. 25 President Yar’Adua was sworn into office on May 29, 2007. The country’s two largest opposition parties, the ANPP and the Action Congress (AC), rejected the election results. The ANPP’s presidential candidate, former President General Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, received an estimated six million votes. Buhari lost the presidential election to Obasanjo in 2003, but some opinion polls conducted prior to the 2007 elections suggested that 20 The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared that Obasanjo won 61.9% of the votes, while his nearest rival, General Muhammadu Buhari of ANPP, won 32.1% of the votes. In the Senate, the PDP won 72 seats out of 109 seats, while the ANPP won 28 and the AD 5 seats. The PDP won 198 seats in the 360-seat House of Representatives, the ANPP 83 seats, and the AD 30 seats. 21 Human Rights Watch, “Election or ‘Selection’? Human Rights Abuses and Threats to Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria,” April 2007. 22 The International Republican Institute, 2003 Election Observation Report, p. 65. 23 The National Democratic Institute, “Statement of the NDI International Election Observer Delegation to Nigeria’s April 19 Presidential and Gubernatorial Elections,” April 21, 2003. 24 The European Union, EU Election Observation Final Report: Nigeria, p. 2. 25 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Africa Report No. 123, March 28, 2007. Congressional Research Service 6 Nigeria he enjoyed greater support than Yar’Adua.26 The AC’s chosen candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, also a northerner, was not among the 24 presidential contenders approved by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in May, allegedly because of pending corruption charges against him (see “Politically Motivated Corruption Charges?”). His exclusion exacerbated tensions during the pre-election period, and his supporters contend he was unjustly excluded because he had opposed Obasanjo’s third term. A last-minute ruling by the Supreme Court restored Abubakar to the ballot, and he placed third with an estimated 2.6 million votes. The ruling PDP won the majority of the state and federal elections in April, including 28 of the 36 state governorships. Opposition gubernatorial candidates won in seven states, including the most populous states of Lagos and Kano. INEC rescheduled elections in Imo state after violence broke out during the elections. The results of many elections were challenged in the courts, based on allegations of fraud, threats of violence, or the inability of voters to cast their ballots. Ultimately, the results of almost a third of the gubernatorial races were annulled and, in most of those cases, elections were re-run, although many of the candidates who won in the first round won again in the second. By the end of 2009, the PDP had held onto 25 governorships and picked up three others, including that of Imo state, after winning opposition candidates changed parties and joined the PDP. Opposition candidates were awarded governorships in Edo and Ondo states after PDP wins there were overturned by election tribunals. The PDP’s gubernatorial win in Anambra state was nullified by the Supreme Court, which allowed the incumbent governor, from an opposition party, to keep his seat.27 The elections of several legislators, including Senate President David Mark were also annulled. An appeals court later overturned the ruling on Mark’s election and he kept his seat. A tribunal hearing the challenges to President Yar’Adua’s win reached its verdict in February 2008, finding insufficient evidence to overturn the election. Nigeria’s Supreme Court upheld that verdict in a December 2008 ruling. Electoral Administration Challenges With an estimated 60 million registered voters and 120,000 polling stations, the challenges in electoral administration are daunting in Nigeria. Prior to the 2007 elections, some observers expressed concern over the pace of election preparations, and INEC’s credibility and capacity to conduct a free and fair election was questioned. Nigeria’s voter registration process began in October 2006 under a new computerized system. INEC originally allotted a six week period for the process, during which reports suggested the process had “so far fallen only a little short of disaster,”28 but later extended the registration period. Although concerns over the slow start of the registration process were largely resolved, criticism remained that the voter registration list was not widely posted so that voters could ensure their names were registered, in accordance with the Electoral Act of 2006. INEC later drew fire from critics who charged that the commission had not made contingency arrangements in the event of a court ruling that would allow Abubakar’s candidacy. According to press reports, over 60 million ballots were printed in the weeks prior to the election that did not include his name. After the April 16 Supreme Court ruling, new ballots had to be produced, arriving from South Africa less than 24 hours before the vote. Distributing 26 “Yar’Adua Prepares for Power,” Africa Confidential, April 13, 2007. 27 The Supreme Court ruled that the incumbent, Peter Obi, who had lost to a PDP candidate in the 2003 gubernatorial election but in 2006 been awarded the seat after a court overturned the PDP win, could serve the rest of his four year term. Obi won a second term when new elections were held in February 2010. 28 The National Democratic Institute, “Is Nigeria Ready to Vote?,” Nigeria Election Watch, November 2006. Congressional Research Service 7 Nigeria those ballots to the 120,000 polling stations was deemed a “logistical nightmare.”29 Some observers questioned the Administration’s influence over INEC’s leadership and its finances; they alleged that INEC lacked independence and would not conduct elections fairly. 30 Electoral Malfeasance and Political Violence Pre-election reports by several domestic and international monitoring groups suggested that the credibility of the elections had already been undermined prior to April 14, and many analysts and observers expected a high level of electoral fraud.31 In addition to concerns over INEC’s ability to administer the election, there were reports by human rights activists and media sources of harassment of domestic observers, opposition candidates and supporters, as well as reports of detention of journalists who had written articles critical of the government. 32 The State Department documented numerous incidents of police disbanding opposition gatherings, at times with excessive force, in its annual human rights report for 2006 and 2007.33 According to the reports, police used the 1990 Public Order Act to prevent meetings critical of the government in spite of a high court decision rejecting the authority of the police to do so. The State Department also tied the Nigerian government or “its agents” to politically motivated killings. Tension between political parties and candidates during the election campaign led to violence in several locations; three gubernatorial candidates were assassinated in 2006.34 Clashes between party supporters reportedly resulted in over 70 deaths during the pre-election period.35 The threat of violence was high in the Niger Delta region and other “hot spots,” including the cities of Lagos, Kano, and Kaduna, as well in states such as Anambra, Benue, Plateau, and Taraba. The U.S. State Department accused several state governments of funding vigilante groups to “detain and kill suspected criminals,” and suggested that police did little to investigate or stop the violence. 36 Many suggest that these groups were used for political purposes during the electoral period. Some election observer groups, including the European Union and the Commonwealth, did not send observers to the Niger Delta region because of threats of violence and kidnapping. Concerns of violence and legal disputes surrounding the elections led many observers to question whether elections would be held as scheduled. On April 16, the Nigerian Supreme Court ruled that INEC must include AC candidate Atiku Abubakar on the presidential ballot. On the same day, an estimated 300 armed members of an Islamic group known as the Taliban stormed a police station in Kano State and killed 13 policemen, reportedly in retaliation for the assassination of a prominent Islamic cleric in a city mosque. Four days prior to the presidential and legislative elections, opposition parties called for the postponement of the elections and disbanding of INEC on account of problems associated with the April 14 state polls. The ANPP and the AC also 29 Oxford Analytica, “Nigeria: Flawed Polls Affect Democratic Stability,” April 23, 2007. ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Africa Report No. 123, March 28, 2007, p. 14. 31 Rotberg, p. 8. 32 “Nigerian Secret Police Detain Journalists,” Voice of America, January 11, 2007. 33 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Report on Human Rights Practices 2006. 34 The gubernatorial candidates assassinated were vying for positions in Ekiti, Lagos, and Plateau States. 30 35 Human Rights Watch, “Election or ‘Selection’? Human Rights Abuses and Threats to Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria,” April 2007. 36 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Report on Human Rights Practices 2006. Congressional Research Service 8 Nigeria demanded the cancellation of the state election results and threatened to boycott the April 21 election.37 The ANPP reversed its boycott threat later in the week, as did the other parties. Political violence during the elections was sporadic. Several police stations and INEC offices around the country were burned, and there was a failed attempt to blow up the INEC headquarters in Abuja. Some estimate that as many as 200 people may have been killed during the elections.38 Preliminary statements from domestic and international observer groups were highly critical, and many questioned the credibility of the election results. Most cautioned, however, against making a final judgment on the elections until after the adjudication of electoral disputes. Violations and irregularities reported by election observers included polling locations opening late, closing early, or not opening at all; errors in printed ballots for the legislative races and presidential ballots lacking serial numbers and some candidates’ names; underage voting; vote buying; ballot box stuffing and theft; and falsified results sheets. Media reports also documented widespread incidents of thuggery and coercion at polling places. 39 The largest domestic monitoring group, the Transition Monitoring Group, suggested that elections were so flawed that they should be held again. 40 According to the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) delegation, led by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright and several former world leaders, “in many places, and in a number of ways, the electoral process failed the Nigerian people. The cumulative effect ... substantially compromised the integrity of the electoral process.”41 The Chief Observer of the European Union delegation said that the elections “have not lived up to the hopes and expectations of the Nigerian people and the process cannot be considered to have been credible.” The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) delegation was similarly critical, suggesting that “irregularities and the sporadic violence characterized and challenged the validity of the elections.”42 The U.S.-based International Republican Institute (IRI) called the elections “below acceptable standards,” noting that the resolution of election disputes would be “critical” to restoring the credibility of the country’s democratic process.43 President Obasanjo reportedly acknowledged some electoral irregularities, notably “logistical failures,” violence, and ballot box theft, but indicated that elections would not be re-held, saying “the magnitude does not make the results null and void.”44 Opposition calls for mass protests went largely unheeded, although according to reports thousands gathered in the streets of Kano, northern Nigeria’s largest city, on April 23, before being dispersed by police with tear gas. World oil prices rose to $68 a barrel in the week after the election, reportedly based in part on concerns surrounding the disputed polls. 45 Despite speculation that questions surrounding the credibility of the election results might trigger a military coup, Yar’Adua’s inauguration was unimpeded. 37 “Presidential Polls: Buhari, Atiku, Others Call for Postponement,” This Day, April 18, 2007. “Landslide Win for Yar’Adua is ‘Flawed,” Financial Times, April 23, 2007. 39 See, for example, “Nigerian: Forced to Vote Against My Wish,” BBC, April 23, 2007. 40 “Call for Nigeria Street Protests,” BBC, April 24, 2007. 41 The National Democratic Institute, “Statement of the National Democratic Institute International Election Observer Delegation to Nigeria’s April 21 Presidential and National Assembly Elections,” April 23, 2007. 42 “Nigeria: Elections Fraudulent; EU, Others,” Daily Trust (Abuja), April 24, 2007. 43 The International Republican Institute, “Nigeria’s Elections Below Acceptable Standards: Preliminary Findings of IRI’s International Election Observation Mission,” April 22, 2007. 44 “Obasanjo Appeals to Nigerians Over Election Results,” Radio Nigeria-Abuja, April 23, 2007, and “Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo Says Elections Flawed, But Not Fatally,” Associated Press, April 25, 2007. 45 “Landslide Win for Yar’Adua is ‘Flawed,’” Financial Times, April 23, 2007. 38 Congressional Research Service 9 Nigeria The Yar’Adua Administration Until he was elected to be the PDP’s presidential candidate in the ruling party’s primaries in December 2006, Umaru Yar’Adua was largely unknown to most Nigerians. 46 Although some critics suggested that his presidency faced a “crisis of legitimacy” in its first year, as a result of the allegations of systemic fraud underlying his electoral victory, others expressed cautious optimism regarding his promises of reform.47 President Yar’Adua conceded in his inaugural speech that the electoral process was flawed, and appointed a panel of government officials, former judges, and civil society representatives to recommend changes to the country’s electoral institutions. The panel issued its findings in December 2008, but reforms were never implemented. Yar’Adua weathered early challenges to his administration, including a general strike by Nigeria’s labor unions over a rise in fuel prices and value-added tax. In response to the strike, Yar’Adua reduced the price hike and announced a review of privatization deals on two of the countries’ refineries. He also voiced commitments to countering corruption and restructuring Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. An October 2007 report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) noted “encouraging gestures of respect for the rule of law and the notion of transparency in government.”48 In January 2008, however, HRW suggested that “the credibility of President Yar’Adua’s rhetoric about promoting the rule of law is at stake,” after changes were made to the country’s lead anti-corruption agency.49 Many observers suggest that President Yar’Adua, reportedly a devout Muslim, was sincere in his campaign promise to fight corruption; in 1999 he became the first governor to publicly declare his assets before he was sworn in. Others suggested that given the lack of credibility surrounding his election, Yar’Adua would have to rely to a system of patronage to maintain support for his rule. There were concerns that Obasanjo hoped to use Yar’Adua to maintain his hold on power, although President Yar’Adua moved to distance himself from the former president, dismissing many of Obasanjo’s political appointees and military leaders in late 2008 and overturning several key government contracts made by the former administration. In December 2008, he proposed that the National Assembly amend the constitution to remove the immunity clause which prevents the president, vice president, governors, and deputy governors from being prosecuted for corruption while in office. The proposal has not been adopted. The Death of President Yar’Adua Questions about President Yar’Adua’s health plagued his administration throughout his tenure. In March 2007, prior to his election, he reportedly received kidney treatment in Germany, and he subsequently returned to Europe several times for medical treatment. Many speculate that he 46 The former chemistry professor had served as governor of the northern Katsina State since his election in 1999. His better-known older brother, the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, served as Vice President under Obasanjo in Nigeria’s first military government to transfer power over to civilian rule and was reported to be one of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the country. He died in prison in 1997 after having been sentenced by a military tribunal in 1995 for treason after calling for former dictator Sani Abacha to reestablish civilian rule. Yar’Adua’s father was a prominent minster in the country’s first government after independence. 47 “Nigeria: Yar’Adua Faces Immediate Challenges,” Oxford Analytica, May 29, 2007, and Lydia Polgreen, “After Rocky Election, Nigerians Warm to New Leader,” New York Times, October 4, 2007. 48 Human Rights Watch, Criminal Politics: Violence, “Godfathers” and Corruption in Nigeria, Vol. 19, No. 16(A), October 2007, p. 105. 49 Statement of Peter Takirambudde, Africa director of Human Rights Watch on January 1, 2007. Congressional Research Service 10 Nigeria suffered from a chronic kidney condition, and when he was hospitalized in Saudi Arabia in November 2009, his absence threatened to spark a political crisis. According to news reports, Yar’Adua, then 58, was flown to Jeddah on November 23 and diagnosed with acute pericarditis (inflammation of the lining around the heart). His prolonged absence from public view led to rumors of his death before he ostensibly held an interview from Saudi Arabia, via BBC radio, on January 12, 2010. Government officials reported that he was responding to treatment and recuperating, but questions grew as to his fitness to govern when he returned to Nigeria. Legal suits were launched by a prominent human rights lawyer and by the Nigerian Bar Association suggesting that Yar’Adua had violated the constitution by not officially transferring power to the Vice President during his absence. 50 Further constitutional questions were raised surrounding several judicial appointments, including the swearing in of a new chief justice of the Supreme Court on December 30, 2009.51 President Yar’Adua’s continued absence also raised concerns regarding a tenuous ceasefire with militants in the Niger Delta (see “Conflict in the Niger Delta” below). On December 29, Yar’Adua reportedly signed the government’s 2009 supplemental budget, passed by the National Assembly in late November, which contained several projects earmarked for the troubled region. Some opposition leaders questioned whether the President actually signed the document himself. 52 In early January 2010, one of the Delta’s militant factions claimed responsibility for the bombing of an oil pipeline in Rivers State, calling the attack a “warning strike,” noting the President’s absence, and suggesting that a “meaningful dialogue” on the region’s problems has yet to take place.53 The militants threatened to continue attacks until Goodluck Jonathan, who is from the Delta, was named acting president or until Yar’Adua returned to office. Pressure for President Yar’Adua to transfer full authority to his vice president until he recovered increased in early February 2010. According to some reports, the Attorney General had requested that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan assume presidential powers in December, but he allegedly refused. 54 Jonathan presided over cabinet meetings after Yar’Adua’s departure, and he used executive powers in mid-January to deploy troops to quell the violence in Jos. At the behest of the Senate, the Cabinet declared that Yar’Adua was fit for office on January 27, and a Nigerian court ruled on January 29 that there was no need for a formal transfer of power during the President’s “medical vacation.” Nevertheless, the country’s influential state governors met on February 5, issuing a call for the Vice President to become acting president. Under pressure from the governors, the Senate and National Assembly passed resolutions on February 9 recognizing Jonathan as the acting head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The Cabinet announced on February 10 that it had accepted parliament’s decision. Although the resolutions were not legally binding and could ultimately be questioned in court, the move allowed Jonathan 50 Nigeria’s constitution requires the President to submit a written declaration to the Senate and the House of Representatives delegating powers to the Vice President as Acting President in the event that he travels on vacation or is unable to discharge the functions of his office, but there is no timeline identified for doing so. Parliament passed an amendment to the constitution in June 2010, that, if ratified by the states, would provide more clarity to the procedure. 51 The new chief justice was sworn in by his predecessor, who had planned to retire at the end of the year; the oath of office is normally performed by the president. According to statements made by Vice President Jonathan and the former chief justice, Nigerian law allowed for the chief justice to administer the oath, but not the Vice President, because presidential powers had not been transferred. See “How We Averted Chaos, by VP,” This Day (Abuja), January 4, 2010. 52 “Buhari, Atiku Doubt Signing of Budget by Yar’Adua,” This Day, January 4, 2010. 53 “MEND’s Fresh Resurgence As Yar’Adua’s Absence Enters 2nd Month,” AllAfrica, January 4, 2010. 54 John Campbell, “Nigeria’s Leadership Vacuum,” Council on Foreign Relations Expert Brief, December 30, 2009. Congressional Research Service 11 Nigeria to conduct critical government business. In one of his first acts as acting head of state, Jonathan replaced Yar’Adua’s influential justice minister, who was reportedly among the most vocally opposed to the formal transfer of power. In June 2010, in response to the ambiguity surrounding Jonathan’s assumption of duties as acting president in February, the Nigerian parliament approved a constitutional amendment addressing procedures for the temporary transfer of presidential powers to the vice president in the event of the president’s absence or inability to discharge his duties. The amendment, if ratified by two-thirds of the states, would permit the National Assembly to mandate the vice president’s temporary assumption of powers if the president failed to transfer such powers in writing within 21 days of his absence. Upon Goodluck Jonathan’s assumption of the title of acting president, the U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria congratulated him on behalf of the United States, saying, We believe that the principle of democracy have been served well in Nigeria through the leadership shown by the National Assembly, the Governors’ Forum, several Ministers, and the courts in finding a way out of the political impasse. The commitment of all elements of Nigerian society to constitutional process and the rule of law is commendable. The best interests of the country and the future of Nigeria have been well served by this action.55 Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson, who was in Nigeria on official business, met with Acting President Jonathan on the day he assumed office. According to some reports, the reluctance of Yar’Adua’s Cabinet to formally transfer power to the Vice President during President Yar’Adua’s illness may have indicated a lack of consensus within the ruling party on the issue of presidential succession. As mentioned above, there is an unwritten agreement that the presidency should rotate among the country’s regions. Many northerners argue that since Yar’Adua was from the north and had only served one term, a candidate from their region should hold the office for another term, given that former President Obasanjo, who was from the south, had two terms in office. Although Goodluck Jonathan assumed the presidency upon Yar’Adua’s death, his term ends after the 2011 elections. The PDP is expected to elect its presidential candidate in party primaries in late 2010. Politically Motivated Corruption Charges? The Nigerian government won praise under former President Obasanjo for some of its efforts to combat the rampant corruption that has plagued Nigeria, but some charge that the former head of state used corruption charges to sideline critics and political opponents.56 Investigations by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), a Nigerian law enforcement agency created in 2003 to combat corruption and fraud, resulted in the arrest of over 2,000 responsible for illegal email scams and in over 130 convictions for fraud during Obasanjo’s tenure.57 However, the International Crisis Group (ICG) suggested that the EFCC was “used as a political weapon to whip political foes, especially state governors likely to stand for the presidency and their supporters, into line.”58 Five state governors, some of whom were considered contenders for 55 Press Statement by the U.S. Embassy in Abuja, February 12, 2010. “Strong Convictions: Nigeria’s First Anti-Corruption Czar,” Christian Science Monitor, February 8, 2007. 57 Ibid. 58 International Crisis Group, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Africa Report No. 123, March 28, 2007. p. 3. 56 Congressional Research Service 12 Nigeria the PDP presidential nomination, were impeached in 2005-2006 for corruption.59 The ICG charged that the impeachments were conducted under heightened military presence in those states and lacked due process.60 Three of the impeachments were reversed by appeals courts. In October 2006, the head of the EFCC announced that investigations of alleged financial crimes were underway for 31 of the country’s 36 state governors; several were prosecuted.61 In February 2007, the EFCC released a list of 135 candidates in the April elections who were “unfit to hold public office because of corruption,” of which 53 were PDP and 82 opposition candidates.62 The legality of INEC’s decision to bar candidates on the EFCC’s list from the elections was questioned.63 Atiku Abubakar’s Legal Troubles One of Nigeria’s most controversial corruption scandals centered on former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whose own political ambitions may have been sidelined by allegations of corruption. Abubakar, once an ally of President Obasanjo and a founding member of the ruling party, publicly opposed Obansanjo’s third term bid. Abubakar was suspended temporarily from the PDP over corruption charges in late 2006 and was thus unable to participate in the PDP’s primary. He subsequently changed his party affiliation, joining the Action Congress party, and the ruling party sought to have him removed from office. In December 2006, a Nigerian court ruled that as vice president, Abubakar was immune from prosecution for corruption charges while in office. In February 2007, a Federal Court of Appeals in Abuja confirmed his constitutional right to remain vice president regardless of his change in party affiliation, but his legal troubles were not over. Abubakar’s name appeared among those on the EFCC’s February list of corrupt candidates, and INEC subsequently excluded him from the 2007 presidential ballot. The March 2007 decision by INEC to exclude Abubakar from the ballot was part of a complex series of legal battles between the Obasanjo Administration and the former Vice President. In June 2006, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) allegedly requested the assistance of the EFCC in the investigation of a U.S. congressman accused of taking a bribe from Nigerian officials of the Petroleum Trust Fund, a state agency which Abubakar had chaired. The EFCC inquiry reportedly uncovered evidence linking Abubakar with the bribery case and charged him with stealing over $125 million in federal oil funds; Abubakar denied the charges. In August 2006, the results of the inquiry were provided to President Obasanjo, who turned the matter over to an Administrative Panel of Inquiry, which in turn recommended prosecution. The indictment was then passed to the National Assembly. In November 2006, a Lagos justice nullified the EFCC report and “set aside” the Panel of Inquiry, ruling that the report had no legal foundation. According to Nigeria’s constitution, a presidential aspirant is ineligible to run if “he has been indicted for embezzlement or fraud by a Judicial Commission of Inquiry or an Administrative Panel of Inquiry.” In early March, 2007, a Federal High Court ruled that INEC lacked the authority to disqualify candidates unless ordered to by a court of law. On April 3, a Nigerian appeals court ruled that the disqualification of candidates was in fact within INEC’s authority. Hours later, the Federal High Court in Abuja contradicted that ruling, determining that INEC lacked the authority to exclude Abubakar from the election and ordering that the electoral body place Abubakar’s name on the ballot. Although the appeals court is the higher of the two judicial bodies, according to some legal analysis neither court has jurisdiction over the case of the other, leaving the issue unresolved. The final decision rested with the country’s Supreme Court, which had been expected to consider the matter during the week of April 9, 2007. On April 11, President Obasanjo declared April 12 and 13 public holidays to allow voters to travel home for the elections on April 14, effectively postponing any ruling by the Supreme Court until the week of the presidential elections. On April 16, five days before the elections, the court ruled that INEC could not disqualify candidates and thus Abubakar’s name should be included on the ballot. 59 The impeached governors represented Bayelsa, Oyo, Ekiti, Anambra, and Plateau States. 60 International Crisis Group, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Africa Report No. 123, March 28, 2007. p. 3. 61 See, for example, Alex Mabayoje, “Closing in on Corrupt Governors,” Newswatch, October 9, 2006, and “Nigerian Ex-Governors Are Charged,” BBC News, July 17, 2007. 62 “Strong Convictions: Nigeria’s First Anticorruption Czar,” Christian Science Monitor, February 8, 2007. 63 The Economist Intelligence Unit, Nigeria: Country Report, March 2007. Congressional Research Service 13 Nigeria In August 2007, the government announced plans to “streamline criminal prosecution of corruption-related offenses” by requiring that all prosecuting agencies, including the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC), report and initiate criminal proceedings with the consent and approval of the attorney general.64 Prior to this announcement, the EFCC and ICPC prosecuted offenses independently from the ministry of justice. Critics argued that the new procedures could impede prosecutions.65 In late December 2007, Nigeria’s Inspector General of Police announced the transfer of EFCC head Nuhu Ribadu to the state of Jos to attend a one-year course at a Nigerian policy institute. Some questioned whether Ribadu’s transfer was linked to his order two weeks earlier for the arrest of former Delta State Governor James Ibori, one of the primary financial contributors to Yar’Adua’s presidential campaign. The Executive Director of the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime wrote a letter to President Yar’Adua on January 7 suggesting Ribadu’s removal could be detrimental to ongoing investigations and might damage the reputation of the EFCC in the view of international donors.66 Ribadu was later dismissed from the police service and was residing in the United States until April 2010, when he was reportedly called back for discussions with thenActing President Jonathan. Some speculate that Jonathan may offer him a new government post. The EFCC has continued to prosecute high profile cases since Ribadu’s departure, and several EFCC operatives were reportedly murdered in retaliation in early 2010.67 In January 2008, the commission ordered the arrest of Lucky Igbinedion, former governor of Edo State, who is alleged to have stolen $25 million in state funds. He later submitted a plea bargain and was released with a fine. The EFCC is appealing the judgment. In June 2008, the Senate unanimously approved the appointment of a former high-ranking police officer, Farida Waziri, to replace Ribadu as EFCC Chair. Some in Nigerian civil society alleged that Waziri was appointed to derail the prosecution of Ibori and others.68 Ibori’s case was dropped by a federal judge in December 2009, but the EFCC has filed an appeal and produced new charges against the former governor. Alleging that Ibori embezzled over $250 million, the EFCC obtained a new warrant for his arrest in April 2010, but Ibori eluded capture after his armed supporters reportedly exchanged fire with Nigerian security forces. Ibori fled Nigeria and was arrested by Interpol in Dubai in May 2010. He now faces extradition to the United Kingdom, where he has been charged with money laundering, and some reports suggest that the Jonathan Administration, facing opposition from Ibori supporters to another attempt to try him in Nigeria, may cooperate with the British on the extradition.69 Several high ranking PDP officials have recently come under scrutiny for alleged corruption. In October 2009, a Nigerian court sentenced Olabode George, a former national chairman of the PDP, to 2.5 years in prison for misuse of $500 million in public funds during his tenure as head of the Nigerian Ports Authority. George was considered a close ally of Obasanjo. In May 2010, PDP Chairman Vincent Ogbulafor resigned from his post amid charges of fraud when he served as a government minister in 2001. He maintains that the charges are politically motivated as part of an 64 “Nigerian Minister of Justice Takes Charge of Corruption Prosecution,” VOA News, August 7, 2007. Ibid. 66 Matthew Green, “Nigerian Anti-Graft Police Arrest Governor,” Reuters, January 22, 2008. 67 “Nigerian Crime Agency Condemns Killings of its Operatives,” VOA News, March 22, 2010. 68 See, for example, “Nigerian Group Criticizes Choice of a New Corruption Chief,” VOA News, May 27, 2008. 69 Nigeria, UK Commence Ibori’s Extradition to UK,” Vanguard, May 14, 2010. 65 Congressional Research Service 14 Nigeria internal PDP power struggle related to President Yar’Adua’s death. 70 Ogbulafor’s former deputy and now acting PDP Chairman, Dr. Bello Mohammed, a former communications minister, may also be under EFCC investigation, reportedly in relation to bribes paid by the German telecommunications firm Siemens. Current Economic and Social Conditions Nigeria has the second largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and generates roughly $50 billion a year in oil and gas revenue (over $70 billion in 2008), and yet many of its people are among the continent’s poorest. Over 50% of Nigerians live on less than $1 per day, and the average life expectancy is less than 47 years. Nigeria has the world’s third largest HIV/AIDS population (after South Africa and India), and was home to two-thirds of the world’s polio cases five years ago.71 The country ranks 158 of 182 countries on U.N. Development Program’s (UNDP) 2009 Human Development Index.72 The U.S. State Department has attributed Nigeria’s lack of social and economic development to “decades of unaccountable rule.”73 Oil Sector Reforms Nigeria’s economy depends heavily on its oil sector, and for decades, as the country’s extractive industries grew, many of its other industries stagnated or declined. According to the World Bank, oil and gas production accounts for 85% of government revenues and 95% of export earnings, but the sector’s share of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has fallen because of decreased output. The European Union is a major trading partner, and the United States is a significant consumer of Nigerian oil. Despite increased deepwater oil production, persistent conflict in the Delta and a significant drop in world oil prices have threatened Nigeria’s fiscal outlook in recent years. According to private sector analysis, annual GDP growth fell from 6% in 2008 to an estimated 5.6% in 2009, but is forecast to rise to 6.7% in 2010.74 The country’s non-oil sectors now drive the economy. Once thriving agricultural production, on the decline for years, now contributes over one-third of GDP. The manufacturing and telecommunications sectors have also performed well in recent years. President Jonathan has stressed his commitment to continuing Umaru Yar’Adua’s efforts to reform the oil and gas industry. In August 2007, the government announced plans to restructure the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which oversees regulation of the industry and has been criticized for its lack of transparency. President Yar’Adua appointed Rilwanu Lukman, a former OPEC secretary-general, as a member of a new National Energy Council (NEC) and as chairman of the Oil and Gas Reforms Implementation Committee. The committee 70 According to media reports, Ogbulafor has been a vocal proponent of President Jonathan stepping aside to allow a northern candidate to vie for the presidency in 2011. 71 Nigerian Muslim clerics in 2002 called for a boycott of polio vaccines, citing safety concerns. The Governor of Kano State, which had one of the world’s highest polio incidences, instituted a ban on vaccinations in 2003; it was lifted in summer 2004. The World Health Organization linked the rise in polio cases in Nigeria and elsewhere on the continent to the interruption in vaccinations. See “Nigeria: Restoring Faith in the Polio Vaccine,” IRIN, August 30, 2006. 72 UNDP’s human development index is a composite measure of life expectancy, adult literacy and school enrollment, and income. More information is available at the UNDP website, http://www.undp.org. 73 U.S. State Department, Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations FY2008 Budget Request. 74 Economist Intelligence Unit, “Nigeria,” Country Reports, May 2010. Congressional Research Service 15 Nigeria was charged with reviewing the contracts of foreign oil companies, a process through which Lukman suggested, “we may have to reconsider some of our generous terms.”75 Lukman was appointed Minister of Petroleum Resources in late 2008, but was replaced by President Jonathan with Nigeria’s first female oil minister, Diezani Allison-Madueke, a former executive with Royal Dutch Shell. Her primary goal, analysts suggest, will be to press the legislature to pass the ambitious Petroleum Industry Bill, which would restructure the NNPC, increase transparency within the industry. Some foreign oil companies have expressed reservations about the bill. 76 Despite its position as one of the world’s largest exporters of oil, Nigeria imports an estimated $10 billion in refined fuel annually, and it continues to face a nationwide power crisis.77 In an effort to increase its refining capacity, the government has granted permits for the construction of several independently owned refineries. The government aims to halt oil imports by 2020. In February 2008, President Yar’Adua pledged to triple electricity production by 2010. While production has increased since the Niger Delta ceasefire took effect in mid-2009, the government revised its goal in December 2009, when the country’s power plants were generating 3,500 megawatts (MW), decreasing the 2010 target of 6,000 MW to 4,000 MW.78 Financial Sector Reforms and Corruption Concerns Successive Nigerian administrations have made commitments to economic reforms, but their track record is mixed. According to the International Monetary Fund, reforms made by the Obasanjo Administration and continued under President Yar’Adua, most importantly the policy of budgeting based on a conservative oil price benchmark, lessened the impact of the recent global financial crisis on Nigeria’s economy. 79 Oil revenues above the benchmark price have been saved since 2003 in an Excess Crude Account, although the government drew substantially from the account in 2009 in an effort to stimulate economic recovery. The country has made significant gains in paying down its external debt, which declined from 36% of GDP in 2004 to 2.8% in 2009. President Obasanjo also pledged to deregulate fuel prices and to improve monitoring of official revenue, but made slow progress in privatizing state enterprises and eliminating trade barriers. President Yar’Adua vowed to continue Obasanjo’s economic reforms, and in 2009 he created an Economic Management Team (EMT) to counter the negative effects of the global financial crisis.80 Like his predecessors, President Jonathan has committed his Administration to reforms that aim to fuel development and has named a former Goldman Sachs official, Olusegun Aganga, as Finance Minister to lead the effort. Among Aganga’s first tasks is to initiate presidentially-directed audit of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. The current governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Lamido Sanusi, appointed under President Yar’Adua, is leading efforts to modernize the country’s banking system. He is pushing for reforms to tighten banking supervision and in late 2009 instituted new regulations that require 75 76 Matthew Green, “Nigeria Considers Oil Contracts Review,” Financial Times, October 23, 2007. “Nigeria Oil Reform Plans Face Further Delays,” Reuters, June 3, 2010. 77 Jon Gambrell, “Nigeria, China sign $23B Deal to Build Refineries in Oil Rich, but Gasoline-Starved Nation,” Associated Press, May 14, 2010. 78 EIU, “Nigeria,” Country Reports, December 2009. 79 International Monetary Fund, “IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation with Nigeria,” October 28, 2009. 80 For more information on the crisis’ effect on Nigeria, see CRS Report R40778, The Global Economic Crisis: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Policy Responses, by Alexis Arieff, Martin A. Weiss, and Vivian C. Jones. Congressional Research Service 16 Nigeria banks to report large cash transactions between accounts if one of the account holders is considered to be “politically exposed.” Bank audits ordered by Sanusi in 2009 found ten banks near collapse due to reckless lending; most of the banks’ top executives have been fired and the government has provided $4 billion to rescue the banks. Sanusi has proposed the creation of an asset management company (AMC) to buy bad bank loans in exchange for government bonds in an effort to get the banks lending again; the parliament is now considering legislation to create the AMC, which would be jointly funded by the central bank and the finance ministry. The EFCC is pursuing debtors, and is prosecuting several bank executives. According to the U.S. State Department, corruption in Nigeria is “massive, widespread, and pervasive.”81 In 2008, Nigeria rose from 147 to 121 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, but fell in 2009 to a ranking of 130.82 Nigeria also has one of the world’s highest incidences of cyber crime, including “419 scams,” so-named for the country’s penal code that outlaws fraudulent e-mails. Many observers suggest that the country’s development will be hindered until it can reverse its perceived “culture of impunity for political and economic crimes.”83 Upon taking office, President Yar’Adua ordered the review of all privatization agreements approved by former President Obasanjo, amid charges of corruption associated with the sales, and subsequently reversed several contracts. Misallocation of State Funds The EFCC has estimated that over $380 billion has been expropriated by Nigeria’s political and military leaders since oil sales began in the 1970s.84 Former Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha reportedly stole more than $3.5 billion during the course of his five years in power. Switzerland, the first country to repatriate stolen funds to Nigeria, transferred an estimated $505.5 million to Nigeria between 2005 and 2006; subsequent transfers have reportedly brought the total returned by the Swiss to over $700 million. According to study by the World Bank, a significant percentage of those funds have been used by the Nigerian government toward meeting the country’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The government has also recovered over $100 million of the funds stolen by Abacha and his family from the autonomous British island of Jersey and an estimated $150 million from Luxembourg. Other Abacha funds remain frozen in accounts in Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, and the United Kingdom. In November 2009, a Swiss court convicted Abacha’s son of participating in a criminal organization and seized $350 million in assets stolen from Nigeria. In 2005, Nigerian Senate Speaker Adolphus Wabara was forced to resign after President Obasanjo accused him of taking more than $400,000 in bribes from the Minister of Education, Fabian Osuji. The Education Minister was also dismissed. The Minister of Housing, Alice Mobolaji Osomo, was also fired for allocating more than 200 properties to senior government officials instead of public sale. In 2006, the governor of Ekiti State was impeached by local legislators on corruption charges. In a controversial move, Obasanjo declared a state of emergency in Ekiti, suspending the state’s democratic institutions and naming a retired general as governor until the 81 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Report on Human Rights Practices 2006. The Corruption Perceptions Index measures the perceptions of business people and country analysts regarding the degree of corruption among public officials and politicians. A high score indicates greater levels of corruption. For more information see http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi. 83 International Crisis Group, “Want in the Midst of Plenty,” Africa Report No. 113, July 19, 2006. 84 “Strong Convictions: Nigeria’s First Anticorruption Czar,” Christian Science Monitor, February 8, 2007. 82 Congressional Research Service 17 Nigeria 2007 elections. In the view of some observers, Obasanjo’s anti-corruption campaign was seen as the most serious and effective of such efforts in decades, but others contend there were political motivations behind some investigations. More recently, in October 2007, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of Nigeria’s House of Representatives resigned under threat of impeachment amidst allegations that they used $5 million in government funds to renovate their official residences and to buy 12 cars. Former President Obasanjo himself has not escaped charges of corruption. In March 2007, a Nigerian Senate committee report recommended that both Obasanjo and Abubakar be prosecuted for illegal use of government funds. 85 Obasanjo has rejected the charges. Other parliamentary panels continue to investigate allegations of corruption during his tenure as president. His daughter, who chairs Nigeria’s Senate Health Committee, was charged by the EFCC in 2008 with fraud; her trial continues. Several multinational corporations have been investigated for paying bribes in Nigeria. In December 2007, Nigeria suspended its contracts with Siemens after a German court found the company guilty of paying an estimated 10 million euro in bribes to Nigerian officials between 2001 and 2004.86 An alleged bribery case involving a Nigerian gas plant is being investigated in several countries, including France, Nigeria, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The companies involved in the natural gas project and the alleged bribery include Halliburton; Total of France; and Italy’s Eni. The U.S. Justice Department led the probe into Halliburton’s role, and officials have reported evidence of bribes paid. 87 Halliburton and Kellogg, Brown, and Root, Inc. (KBR) reached a $177 settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2009 related to the case, and KBR paid a $402 million fine to settle the Justice Department charges. 88 The Effects of Corruption Due to decades of economic mismanagement, political instability, and widespread corruption, Nigeria’s education and social services systems have suffered from lack of funding, industry has idled, refineries are in poor condition, and the largest oil-producing country in Africa suffers periodically from severe fuel shortages. The government’s efforts to pay down its external debt, however, have freed $750 million for programs aimed at poverty reduction and reaching the country’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), according to the World Bank.89 HIV/AIDS Nigeria’s HIV/AIDS prevalence rate of 3.1% is relatively small in comparison to some Southern African nations with adult seropositivity rates of over 30%. However, the West African nation comprises nearly one-tenth of the world’s HIV/AIDS infected persons with 2.6 million infected people (UNAIDS 2008 estimate), the largest HIV-positive population in Africa after South Africa. Nigeria’s population is expected to double by the year 2025, which is likely to multiply the spread of HIV. In addition to the devastation HIV/AIDS continues to cause among Nigeria’s adult 85 “Obasanjo Rejects Graft Indictment,” BBC News, February 22, 2007. “Nigeria to Blacklist Siemens After Bribery Scandal,” Reuters, December 5, 2007. 87 “The Gas Ghost Keeps Haunting,” Africa Confidential, May 9, 2008. 88 “Halliburton, KBR Paying $547 Million in Bribery Settlement,” Market Watch, February 11, 2009. 89 World Bank, “Nigeria: Country Brief,” April 2010, available at http://www.worldbank.org. 86 Congressional Research Service 18 Nigeria population, half of the current population is under the age of 15. With just over half of primaryschool-aged children in school and the large number of HIV/AIDS-infected adults, Nigeria faces serious challenges and significant obstacles in the education and health care sectors. Avian Flu In February 2007, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed the presence of H5N1 virus, which causes avian influenza, or bird flu, in a 22-year-old deceased female from Lagos. She is believed to be the first human to have died from the disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. The H5N1 virus had previously been identified in poultry outbreaks in the country, and may be the source for infected poultry in neighboring countries.90 A new strain of bird flu was detected in Nigeria in August 2008. Islamic Sharia Law Nigeria is home to Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest Muslim population. Twelve of Nigeria’s states in the Sunni Muslim-dominated north of the country have adopted Islamic sharia law to adjudicate criminal and civil matters for Muslims since 1999.91 Common law and customary law courts adjudicate cases involving non-Muslims in these states. In some states, the introduction of sharia proved to be a flashpoint between Muslims and Christians. The introduction of sharia has also resulted in much-publicized rulings, several of which have been criticized by human rights groups as well as by Nigerians in the southern and mostly Christian part of the country. The State Department reports that sharia “technically does not apply to non-Muslims in civil and criminal proceedings,” although observers acknowledge that Islamic mores are often enforced in public without regard for citizens’ religion. In some areas, state-funded vigilante groups known as hisbah patrol public areas and attempt to enforce sharia rulings. While some sharia courts have issued controversial stoning and amputation sentences, the U.S. State Department reports that none of the stoning sentences have been implemented. 92 Kano state ruled in 2003 that all school girls attending government schools were to wear the hijab, the Islamic head scarf, regardless of whether they are Muslim. In 2002, in Katsina State, Amina Lawal was sentenced to death by stoning after a court found her guilty of adultery. In 2003, Ms. Lawal appealed her sentence to the Katsina State’s Appeals Court and won after the court ruled that her conviction was invalid. In another highly publicized case, a sharia court in the State of Sokoto sentenced Safiya Hussaini in 2001 to death for adultery. Ms. Hussaini appealed her sentence and was exonerated on the grounds that she was impregnated by her former husband and that the affair took place before sharia law was enacted. Despite such cases, many observers see the interpretation and implementation of Nigerian sharia as moderate in comparison to that of some other Islamic countries. 90 For more information on the Avian Flu in Nigeria, see CRS Report RL33871, Foreign Countries' Response to the Avian Influenza (H5N1) Virus: Current Status, by Emma Chanlett-Avery et al.. 91 These states are Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara. 92 As of December 2009, only one amputation sentence had been carried out, involving a victim who refused to appeal his conviction, according to the U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” 2009 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. Congressional Research Service 19 Nigeria Concerns Regarding the Possible Radicalization of Nigerian Muslims In July 2009, religious clashes erupted in the northern states of Bauchi, Borno, and Yobe, reportedly resulting in at least 700 deaths and the displacement of several thousand. The clashes originated in Bauchi state between police and a Muslim sect, Boko Haram (“Western education is forbidden”), also known as the “Nigerian Taliban,” which aims to overthrow the Nigerian government and impose sharia throughout the country. Alleged attempts by militants to storm police stations and other government buildings led to rioting and street battles with Nigerian security forces. The group’s leader, Mohammed Yusuf, was reportedly killed by police on July 30 in the northern city of Maiduguri. Some contend that his death was an extrajudicial killing, a charge that the police deny (see “Abuses by Security Forces” below).93 Following the clashes, local religious and traditional leaders announced plans to establish a preaching board composed of Islamic leaders and scholars to vet clerics. Violence between security forces and members of another Islamic sect reported to hold beliefs similar to those of Boko Haram in Bauchi state in late December 2009 resulted in over 40 deaths.94 The international media has focused on concerns regarding the possible radicalization of Nigerian Muslims following the attempted terrorist attack on an American airliner by a Nigerian passenger, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, on December 25, 2009. According to reports, Abdulmutallab, son of a respected Nigerian banker and former government minister, became “radicalized” while living abroad, most recently in Yemen, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claims to have sponsored his attempt to detonate an explosive device while onboard a flight bound from Amsterdam to Detroit. Abdulmutallab’s father reported concerns about his son’s radicalization to the U.S. embassy and others in November 2009. The attempted attack, allegedly scheduled to coincide with Christmas Day, has raised questions regarding airport security in both the Netherlands and in Nigeria, where Abdulmutallab’s journey began. Both countries have pledged to begin using full body scanners in their international airports in 2010. The attempt has also led to increased screening measures at airports around the world. In January 2010, the Department of Homeland Security announced that passengers flying to the United States who are citizens of 14 countries deemed to be either “state sponsors of terrorism” or “countries of interest” would be subject to additional screening, including compulsory “pat-downs.” Nigeria was among five African countries, including Algeria, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia, included in the new regulation, and the Nigerian government protested the rule as discriminatory. 95 In April 2010, the Department of Homeland Security announced new security measures for screening all passengers on international flights to the United States, superseding the regulations that specifically targeted Nigerians for further screening. 96 Abdulmutallab’s actions are considered by most to be an isolated incident, and many Nigerian observers stress that, by all accounts, Abdulmutallab’s radicalization and training took place outside Nigeria. Nevertheless, the expansion of conservative Sunni Islamist movements and clashes between security forces and Islamist sects in northern Nigeria have raised concerns among some observers and officials that other Nigerians 93 “Islamic Death ‘Good for Nigeria’,” BBC, July 31, 2009. “Death Toll From Nigeria Clashes Rises to 40 – Red Cross,” Reuters, December 30, 2009. 95 “Nigeria Criticizes ‘Unfair’ US Air Passenger Screening,” BBC, January 4, 2010. 96 Department of Homeland Security, “Secretary Napolitano Announces New Measures to Strengthen Aviation Security,” April 2, 2010. 94 Congressional Research Service 20 Nigeria may be susceptible to recruitment by Al Qaeda or other groups hoping to use violence against government or civilian targets in Nigeria or abroad. Conflict in the Niger Delta Background of the Struggle Oil from the southern Niger Delta region has accounted for over 75% of the country’s oil production since the 1970s, and yet the area’s political history remains one of conflict and marginalization. The Delta is home to an estimated 31 million people. Among them are the Ogoni, an ethnic minority whose members have received international attention for their efforts to highlight the extensive environmental damage done by oil extraction in the region. In 1994, author and activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, president of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP), and 14 others were accused of involvement in the murder of four prominent Ogoni politicians. They pled not guilty, but nine, including Saro-Wiwa, were convicted and sentenced to death in 1995 by the Ogoni Civil Disturbances Special Tribunal. The executions sparked international outrage against the regime of Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha, who was accused of extensive human rights abuses. The United States recalled its ambassador and pushed a resolution at the U.N. General Assembly that condemned Nigeria’s action. In 2009, Shell established a trust fund to benefit the Ogoni people, part of a $15.5 million settlement in a New York court case related to the 1995 executions. The company maintains that it played no role in the executions or other abuses. Criminality and Violence Nigeria’s oil wealth has been a source of continuing political tension, protest, and criminality in the Delta, where most of the country’s oil presently originates. The conflict has been linked to the vandalism of oil infrastructures; massive, systemic production theft known as “oil bunkering,” often abetted by state officials; protests over widespread environmental damage caused by oil operations; hostage taking; and public insecurity and communal violence. Several thousand people have been killed in pipeline explosions in southeast Nigeria since the late 1990s; the largest single toll from an explosion was approximately 1,000 in October of 1998. These explosions are triggered when people siphon off oil from holes punched in the above-ground pipeline for personal use, resulting in a reported loss of some 100,000 barrels of oil per day. The government established a national task force on surveillance of petroleum pipelines in order to prevent a recurrence of the 1998 pipeline explosion tragedy. In 1998, militants from the Delta’s largest ethnic group, the Ijaw, initiated “Operation Climate Change,” triggering violent conflict between the Ijaw and the Nigerian military and disrupting oil production in the region. Threats of an “all out war” against the government and the oil companies by Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, one of the leaders of that group, in 2004 reportedly played a role in the unprecedented rise in the world price of oil above $50 a barrel. 97 The threat was later called off after negotiations with the government. In September 2004, a new rebel movement, the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPVF), led by Dokubo-Asari, launched a series of attacks against government forces and threatened to attack foreign oil workers. The NDPVF 97 “Pumping Up the Oil Price; the Price of Oil,” The Economist, October 1, 2004. Congressional Research Service 21 Nigeria demanded autonomy for the region and a share of oil revenues. An estimated 500 people were reportedly killed that month in the ensuing violence, according to Amnesty International, though the Nigerian government disputes this figure. On September 29, 2004, the NDPVF and the Nigerian government reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement. Dokubo-Asari stated that “there should be a cessation of hostilities on both sides. Apart from that, we have not agreed on anything else for the time being.” He was arrested in September 2005 and charged with plotting to overthrow the government. Dokubo-Asari was released from prison on bail in June 2007, allegedly because of the militant’s failing health. According to media reports, upon his release he denounced the practice of hostage-taking in the region and assisted in the government’s negotiations with militants.98 In November 2005, the Nigerian army deployed additional troops to the oil-rich Bayelsa State after lawmakers began impeachment proceedings against State Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. In September 2005, British authorities had charged Alamieyeseigha, while visiting in London, with money laundering. The former governor, who returned to Nigeria, was found guilty of money laundering and embezzlement in July 2007. He was also later released by President Yar’Adua, on a plea bargain to help advance peace talks. The British government has returned over $2 million in assets allegedly stolen by Alamieyeseigha to Nigerian authorities. Conflict between the Delta’s militants and the Nigerian military escalated after early 2006, and the kidnapping of foreign oil workers increased exponentially. A new rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), emerged in late 2005 and has used the kidnappings to bring international attention to its cause and to demand that the government release various regional figures, including Dokubu-Asari and Alamieyeseigha. Media reports suggest over 300 foreigners were kidnapped between 2006 and 2009, including several American citizens. According to the State Department, more than 50 foreigners were kidnapped between January and July 2009.99 Attacks by militant groups like the MEND have periodically cut Nigeria’s oil production by as much as 25%, and analysts partially credit supply disruptions in Nigeria with periodically raising the world price of oil. 100 Nigeria’s deep-water production has proven vulnerable to militant attacks as well, as evidenced by attacks on Shell’s offshore Bongo platform, and the threat of sea piracy is high. According to some estimates, up to 10% of Nigeria’s oil is stolen every year, and some experts suggest that the heightened violence and criminality in the Delta has been used to fund local political campaigns.101 In June 2007, MEND declared a one-month truce, declaring it would cease kidnappings and attacks on oil facilities during that period in exchange for dialogue with the Yar’Adua government. As part of the truce, the group released several hostages taken from a Chevron facility, including at least one American.102 The NDPVF extended a similar 90-day truce offer a week later, and groups represented under the so-called Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC) also declared a temporary ceasefire. Other smaller militant groups remained active; an unidentified group invaded a flow station in Bayelsa State in mid-June. In July 2007 the truce unraveled, and 98 “Freed Militant Opposes Kidnappings,” This Day, June 17, 2007. U.S. Department of State, “Travel Warning: Nigeria” July 17, 2009. 100 See, for example, “Oil Steady Over 70 USD as Concerns about US Gasoline Supply, Nigeria Continue,” AFX News Limited, May 22, 2007, and “Assault at Gas Pumps Related to Attacks on Nigerian Pipelines,” CNN, May 23, 2008. 101 Human Rights Watch, Criminal Politics: Violence, “Godfathers” and Corruption in Nigeria, Vol. 19, No. 16(A), October 2007. 102 “Nigerian Militants Free Six Hostages, Suspend Attacks for a Month,” Agence France Presse, June 2, 2007. 99 Congressional Research Service 22 Nigeria in August MEND announced that it would resume attacks on oil installations. Gang violence in Port Harcourt, the region’s main city, escalated into running street battles until government troops imposed a curfew on the city. Self-described MEND spokesman Henry Okah was arrested in Angola in September 2007 on suspicion of arms-trafficking. In December 2007, the Bayelsa state government announced the signing of a peace agreement with the state’s militant groups, although MEND rejected the truce, declaring it would increase its attacks until Okah, who was extradited to Nigeria in February 2008, was released. Street clashes erupted again in Port Harcourt in February, and random violence in the city has continued sporadically. MEND declared another cessation of hostilities in mid-2008, but it suspended the ceasefire in January 2009. Nigeria’s Joint Task Force (JTF), a special combined military and police unit established in 2004 to restore order in the Delta, launched a new offensive against militants in May 2009. Fighting between security forces and militants, combined with JTF air and land strikes against militant camps, displaced thousands, according to Amnesty International.103 Acts of sabotage by the MEND and other militant groups increased in mid-2009, cutting oil production by approximately 273,000 barrels per day. President Yar’Adua Offers Amnesty to Delta Militants On June 25, President Yar’Adua extended an offer of amnesty to Delta militants; those who surrendered their weapons, renounced violence, and accepted rehabilitation by October 4, 2009 would be granted a presidential pardon, along with cash and job training. Within days of the offer, five militant groups had announced their intention to accept amnesty. MEND initially rejected the President’s gesture, but days after jailed MEND leader Henry Okah was pardoned and freed, on July 13, the group announced a 60-day ceasefire. MEND collectively continues to reject amnesty, but has agreed to participate in negotiations with the government. The group’s identity and composition has changed since it first emerged. Various militant groups in the Niger Delta have claimed actions under the name of MEND, and analysts suggest that it is now an umbrella group with a decentralized structure. Notably, several high-profile militant commanders, including Soboma George, Ateke Tom, and Government Ektemupolo (alias Tompolo), who have been rumored to be among MEND’s senior leadership, have accepted the amnesty, raising questions about the group’s current cohesiveness. According to Nigerian government estimates, 15,260 “militants” accepted the amnesty and turned in weapons by the October 2009 deadline; the government ultimately aims to disarm 20,000.104 Oil output has increased since the ceasefire was declared, but observers warn that unless the root causes of the conflict are addressed, further violence will follow. 105 Efforts to Address Environmental and Development Challenges Oil production in the Delta has caused major damage to the area’s fragile riverine ecosystem, and ultimately to the livelihoods of its inhabitants.106 Some reports suggest that 3 million barrels of 103 Amnesty International, “Hundreds Feared Dead and Thousands Trapped in Niger Delta Fighting,” May 22, 2009. “On the MEND: The Politics of Surrender in Nigeria,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, December 2009. 105 “In Niger Delta, Uneasy Peace as Rebel Disarmament Dates Nears,” Washington Post, July 27, 2009. 106 Amnesty International, Petroleum, Pollution, and Poverty in the Niger Delta, June 2009. 104 Congressional Research Service 23 Nigeria crude leaked into the Delta’s fragile ecosystem between 1976 and 2001, by some estimates over 47 million barrels may have spilled since oil production began in Nigeria.107 Gas flares, which burn unwanted natural gas when drilling for oil, have plagued the Delta with acid rain and air pollution. 108 This pollution has severely limited locals’ access to clean water, and has largely destroyed the fishing stocks the majority of Delta inhabitants depended on to make a living.109 In 2006, Shell Oil was ordered by a Nigerian federal court to pay $1.5 billion to compensate local communities for environmental damage; Shell appealed the ruling. In early 2010, a Dutch court began hearing a case against Shell related to a massive spill that occurred in the Delta in 2005. In 2008, President Yar’Adua announced that Shell would be replaced by another company in the oil fields of Ogoniland; the decision was praised by the Ogoni.110 In part to reduce gas flaring, the Yar’Adua government backed projects to store and export natural gas. Under President Yar’Adua, the government took several important steps to engage the Delta’s disaffected communities, efforts that activists hope President Jonathan will expand. An unprecedented 20% of Yar’Adua’s first federal budget proposal, for 2008, was allocated for security and development projects in the Delta, although activists expressed concern that the amount allocated for security far outweighed funds for development.111 A supplemental 2009 budget passed in November 2009 included more than $750 million for “post-amnesty intervention.” The 2010 budget includes some $1.2 billion for “post-amnesty development” projects in the region, targeting transport, education, and health infrastructure. Concerns remain regarding the government’s ability to spend the funds effectively. Most observers agree that the crisis in the Delta must ultimately be solved politically, rather than militarily, but there is considerable disagreement on the details of such a solution. The current federal system provides states with a 13% share of local revenues (predominately from oil sales). Groups like MEND argue that the states should receive a 50% share, as was stipulated in the 1960 constitution. A technical committee nominated by President Yar’Adua to identify policies to stimulate development and improve security in the Delta region issued a report in December 2008. In the report, the committee advocated raising the share of oil revenues allocated to the oilproducing states to 25%. Some analysts suggest that corruption within the state governments is so high that the local populations would see little improvement even if the state share were raised. Some of the oil-producing states have reported revenues of up to $1.3 billion per year but have dismal records of development or service delivery.112 Other analysts question what effect a change in revenue allocation might have on the northern states, several of which have lower development indicators than those in the Delta. In late 2009, President Yar’Adua proposed transferring 10% of the revenues from the government’s oil and gas joint ventures to local Delta communities. In September 2008, President Yar’Adua created a new cabinet-level Ministry for Niger Delta Affairs. The Ministry is intended to build on development plans started under the Obasanjo 107 Ibid.; UNDP, Niger Delta Human Development Report, 2006; and Jonathan Brown, “Niger Delta Bears Brunt After 50 Years of Oil Spills,” The Independent (London), October 26, 2006. 108 The government ordered an end to large-scale flaring by 2008, but several major oil companies reported that they were unable to comply in that time frame, and flaring continues. 109 International Crisis Group, “Fueling the Niger Delta Crisis,” Africa Report No. 118, September 28, 2006. 110 “Nigeria’s Removal of Shell Hailed,” BBC News, June 5, 2008. 111 “Nigeria’s Pledge to Increase Niger Delta Spending Elicits Skeptical Response,” VOA News, November 11, 2007. 112 “Blood and Oil,” The Economist, March 15, 2007. Congressional Research Service 24 Nigeria Administration in 2007 under the auspices of the Niger Delta Development Corporation (NDDC), which was established in 2000 to improve social and environmental conditions in the Delta. Improvements in infrastructure and education were identified as areas of major focus for Obasanjo’s 15-year, $50 billion plan. 113 In his first year in office, President Yar’Adua doubled the budget for the NNDC to $566 million. Some have been critical of the slow pace at which the Ministry has been established, and there are concerns that its programs and those of the NDDC, which is intended to be a part of the Ministry, may be duplicative. President Yar’Adua appointed new board members to the NDDC in mid-2009 in what was seen as an effort to relaunch the body. Some analysts suggest that given the level of corruption endemic in the Delta, the international community should work with the Nigerian government to establish a new development fund that would have independent oversight. New opportunities for foreign investment in the Delta could also contribute to improvements in the region, although unrest may deter investors. Effects on the Oil Industry and the World Market Nigeria has an oil production capacity of 3 million barrels per day (BPD), but output has not met capacity. Oil production dropped from an estimated 2.13 million bpd in 2007 to 1.95 million bpd in 2008, but increased from an estimated 1.6 million bpd in July 2009, before the ceasefire, to 1.9 million bpd in October 2009.114 Instability, criminality, and oil leaks in the Delta have cut output by one-fifth since 2006. By comparison, Saudi Arabia produces an estimated 10.8 million bpd, Iran an estimated 4.2 million bpd, and Venezuela an estimated 2.6 million bpd. 115 In 2005, a group of former senior U.S. national security officials convened a working group to develop a possible U.S. response to a simulated world oil crisis.116 Under the scenario given to the participants, civil unrest in northern Nigeria required the Nigerian government to move troops from the unstable Niger Delta region to quell violence in the north. Unprotected, oil companies in the Delta ceased production, and the country’s contribution to the world oil market was reduced by 800,000 bpd for an extended period. Combined with an unseasonably cold winter and hypothetical terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, oil prices rose to $120 per barrel and U.S. gasoline prices at the pump rose to $4.74 per gallon, triggering a recession and potential job losses of up to 2 million. As was seen in 2004, even the threat of a coordinated militant attack against oil targets in the Delta can affect the price of oil on the world market. A longer and more sustained disruption of the country’s oil supply, particularly if combined with the disruption of another major supplier’s product, could have a significant impact on the world economy. In addition to its oil reserves, Nigeria is has the seventh largest natural gas reserves in the world, but to date they have provided little benefit to the Nigerian economy. The gas reserves, also predominantly located in the Delta region, are estimated at over 182 trillion cubic feet. The government planned to increase gas exports to 50% of oil revenues by 2010, but many of Nigeria’s fields currently lack the infrastructure to produce natural gas and would require significant investment to meet that goal. The government has also set deadlines for oil companies 113 “Nigeria Launches New Development Plan for Niger Delta,” Voice of America, March 27, 2007, and “New Hope for Old ‘Master Plan’ on Niger Delta,” IRIN, November 19, 2007. 114 Economist Intelligence Unit, “Nigeria,” Country Reports, February 2009 and July 2009. 115 Production figures from 2008 acquired from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration. 116 For more information on the exercise, known as “Oil Shockwave,” see http://www.secureenergy.org/reports/ oil_shock_report_master.pdf. Congressional Research Service 25 Nigeria to stop flaring gas, estimated at 40% of annual production in 2007, at oil wells, but reports suggest they have not been met.117 Abuses by Security Forces Nigerian security forces, particularly the police, have been accused of serious human rights abuses, and activists suggest that the government has done little to address issues of impunity and corruption within the Nigerian Police Force. In 2007, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture reported that “torture is an intrinsic part of how law enforcement services operate within the country,” and called on the Nigerian government to criminalize the practice.118 The State Department’s annual human rights report on Nigeria documents numerous instances of “politically motivated and extrajudicial killings by security forces, including summary executions… torture, rape and other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment of prisoners, detainees, and criminal suspects,” and a variety of other offences. Its 2009 report notes serious abuses by both police and soldiers related to the July 2009 Boko Haram uprising and references “credible media reports” claiming that police executed the group’s leader. Other recent reports on abuses include Arbitrary Killings by Security Forces, produced by Human Rights Watch; Killing at Will: Extrajudicial Executions and Other Unlawful Killings by the Police in Nigeria, by Amnesty International; and Criminal Force: Torture, Abuse, and Extrajudicial Killings by the Nigerian Police Force, by the Open Society Justice Initiative and the Network of Police Reform in Nigeria. Nigerian officials have acknowledged some abuses, and in March 2010 the country’s police minister called the situation “condemnable and unacceptable.”119 Nigeria’s prison system has also drawn criticism; a 2008 Amnesty International report alleged that at least 65% of the inmates had never been convicted of a crime, and that some awaited trial for up to 10 years.120 International Relations Since the 1990s, Nigeria has emerged as an important player in regional and international affairs. Nigeria is one of the twelve members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and is a key member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The government has helped to resolve political disputes in Togo, Mauritania, Liberia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Nigeria has also played an important role in facilitating negotiations between the government of Sudan and the Darfur rebels. Nigerian troops have played a vital role in peacekeeping operations in Sierra Leone and Liberia, and are currently in the Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sudan, and the Western Sahara. Nigerian police and military observers are also participating in UN missions around the world. The United States is the top destination for Nigerian exports, followed by Brazil, India, Spain and France, while China is the lead source for Nigerian imports, followed by the Netherlands and the United States.121 117 “Nigeria Gas Profits ‘Up in Smoke’,” BBC, January 13, 2009. United Nations Press Release, “Special Rapporteur on Torture Concludes Visit to Nigeria,” March 12, 2007. 119 “Nigeria Condemns Police ‘Killing’,” BBC, March 5, 2010. 118 120 Amnesty International, “Nigeria: Criminal Justice System Utterly Failing Nigerian People; Majority of Inmates Not Convicted of Any Crime,” February 26, 2008. 121 CIA, “Nigeria”, The World Factbook, June 1, 2010. Congressional Research Service 26 Nigeria The Bakassi Peninsula In 2006, Nigeria and Cameroon reached agreement on a long-standing border dispute regarding an area known as the Bakassi peninsula, although some questions regarding the border demarcation remain. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 2002 that the peninsula belonged to Cameroon, but that its residents, most of whom reportedly consider themselves to be Nigerian, could retain their Nigerian nationality. Despite the ruling, tension remained, and the transfer of possession was delayed. The Presidents of the two countries met with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in June 2006, and President Obasanjo agreed to withdraw Nigerian troops from the area and transfer complete control within two years. Nigeria formally handed control of the peninsula to Cameroon on August 14, 2006, although it remained under Nigerian civilian control until August 2008 while a mixed commission conducted a demarcation of villages along the border. Some have refused to accept the transfer; in November 2007 militants killed 21 Cameroonian soldiers on the peninsula. Two weeks later, the Nigerian senate approved a motion declaring the transfer illegal because it had not been ratified by the National Assembly. Under pressure from President Yar’Adua, the agreement was ratified and a final deal was signed in Cameroon in March 2008. In June 2008, the Cameroonian deputy governor of Bakassi and his security detail were kidnapped and murdered. By some estimates, one-third of the peninsula’s population, approximately 100,000 people, have moved to other parts of Nigeria as a result of the settlement. 122 Talks between Cameroon and Nigeria began again in June 2009 over the land demarcation, which has implications for Cameroon’s ability to prospect for oil in the region. Issues for Congress Administration Policy on Nigeria After a period of strained relations in the 1990s, U.S.-Nigeria relations steadily improved under the administration of former President Obasanjo, and they remained strong under President Yar’Adua. The Bush Administration praised the Nigerian government’s improved budget practices, banking sector reform, and efforts to eliminate the country’s foreign debt, although it remained critical of the country’s human rights record and questions its commitment to ensuring free and fair elections. President George W. Bush visited the country in 2003, and First Lady Laura Bush visited Nigeria in 2006. Following the April 2007 elections, though, the Bush Administration expressed concern with what a State Department spokesman called “a flawed election, and in some instances, deeply flawed.”123 Nevertheless, the State Department stressed the need to “engage” rather than isolate the country in order to “nurture Nigeria’s fragile democracy,” and President Bush met Yar’Adua at the White House in December 2007.124 President Barack Obama’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Johnnie Carson, has referred to Nigeria as “probably the most important country in Sub-Saharan Africa.”125 President Obama reiterated the importance of the U.S.-Nigeria relationship and formally acknowledged the country’s role as a regional leader during a meeting with then-Acting President Goodluck 122 Neil Ford, “Fields of Black Gold,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, October 2008. “Governing Party Wins in Nigeria, but Many Claim Fraud,” New York Times, April 23, 2007. 124 Testimony of Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, Ibid. 125 U.S. Department of State, “Remarks by Ambassador Carson on Secretary Clinton’s Africa Trip,” July 30, 2009. 123 Congressional Research Service 27 Nigeria Jonathan at the White House in April 2010. Hillary Rodham Clinton visited Nigeria in August 2009 on her first visit to the continent as Secretary of State; Nigeria was one of seven African countries on her itinerary. Clinton’s discussions in Nigeria focused on regional security, democracy, corruption, and economic development. In her remarks during the visit, she stressed the need for electoral reform and expressed support for the government’s political approach toward resolving the conflict in the Niger Delta.126 The United States and Nigeria agreed in January 2010 to establish a binational commission on areas of mutual concern, as called for by Members of the House of Representatives in H.R. 2410, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 2010 and 2011. The first meetings of the commission, formally established in April, were held in late May 2010. The commission is composed of four working groups: Good Governance, Transparency, and Integrity; Energy and Investment; Food Security and Agriculture; and Niger Delta and Regional Security Cooperation. U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Maritime Security Issues Nigeria is an important trading partner for the United States, and is the largest beneficiary of U.S. investment on the continent. The country is eligible for trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The country’s AGOA-eligible exports, which account for over 90% of Nigeria’s total exports to the United States, were valued at $38 billion in 2008. Nigeria vies with Venezuela to be the United States’ fourth largest source of imported oil (behind Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia), depending on how much of its oil production is shut-in in any given month. U.S. imports of Nigerian crude account for over 40% of that country’s total oil exports, and the United States is Nigeria’s largest trading partner. Nigeria has more than 36 billion barrels of proven petroleum reserves.127 The government had plans to increase its reserves to 40 billion barrels by 2010, although experts suggest funding shortfalls inhibit increased production. U.S. energy companies may face increasing competition for rights to the country’s energy resources; in 2008, China offered Nigeria a $2.5 billion loan for infrastructure projects in exchange for oil exploration rights, but the Chinese offer was rejected by the Yar’Adua Administration. More recently, in May 2010, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and China signed a contract worth an estimated $23 billion for the construction of three oil refineries, aimed at reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, and a petrochemicals complex. The NNPC signed an agreement with Russia’s Gazprom in June 2009 to create a joint venture for oil and gas exploration with an initial investment of approximately $2.5 billion. Nigeria has also signed an agreement with Algeria and Niger to build a 2,500 mile pipeline across their territories to deliver gas to Europe. Nigeria recently began exporting natural gas to neighboring countries through the new West Africa Gas Pipeline. Gulf of Guinea crude is prized on the world market for its low sulphur content, and Nigeria’s proximity to the United States relative to that of oil producing countries in the Middle East makes Nigeria’s oil particularly attractive to American interests. In 2005, the United States, Nigeria, and other interested partners initiated the “Gulf of Guinea Energy Security Strategy,” a forum through which participants work to address the challenges of oil production in the Niger Delta. Regional heads of state met in April 2008 and called for the creation of an international security force to protect the oil industry in the Gulf. Nigeria’s waters have been named among the most dangerous 126 U.S. Department of State, “Remarks With Nigerian Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe,” August 12, 2009. Energy Information Administration, “Nigeria Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis,” Country Analysis Briefs, May 2009, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov. 127 Congressional Research Service 28 Nigeria in the world; the country ranked first in global pirate attacks until it was overtaken by Somalia in 2008, according to the International Maritime Bureau. Nigeria is also considered a growing transshipment point for narcotics trafficking, and several Nigerian criminal organizations have been implicated in the trade.128 The U.S. Navy has increased its operations in the Gulf of Guinea to enhance security in the region. Through its Global Fleet Stations (GFS) concept, the Navy has committed itself to more persistent, longer-term engagement and in 2007 launched a new initiative, the African Partnership Station (APS).129 Successive APS deployments have included port visits in Nigeria and joint exercises between U.S., Nigerian, European, and other regional naval vessels. Nigerian military personnel have also served onboard as embarked trainees, and a Nigerian naval captain served as the APS Deputy Commander during the most recent deployment in early 2010. The Department of Defense’s newest regional combatant command, Africa Command (AFRICOM), is expected to maintain this increased focus on maritime security in the region. 130 Nigeria’s Role in Regional Stability Nigeria plays a significant role in peace and stability operations across the continent. Former President Obasanjo reportedly played a critical role in building consensus on the continent for cooperation in U.S. counter-terrorism efforts. The United States provides the country with military training with an emphasis on professionalization and respect for human rights and civilian authority through a range of security assistance programs, including those focused on enhancing its peacekeeping capabilities. Nigeria is also a participant in the State Department’s Trans Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a U.S. interagency effort that aims to increase border protection and regional counter-terrorism capabilities. The State Department has established ten “American Corners” to share information on American culture and values with Nigerians. In November 2007, Nigerian security forces arrested a group of Islamic militants in northern Nigeria. The suspects, who were charged with plotting to attack government buildings, were alleged by the government to have ties with Al Qaeda. In 2003, the United States offered a $2 million reward for the capture of former Liberian President Charles Taylor, who was in exile in Nigeria. President Obasanjo was opposed to transferring Taylor to the Special Court for Sierra Leone (SCSL), which indicted Taylor on 17 counts of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and violation of international humanitarian law in March 2003. The Nigerian government said that any attempt to kidnap Taylor would be viewed as “a violation of Nigeria’s territorial integrity.”131 In May 2005, President Obasanjo met with President Bush and other senior Administration officials in Washington to discuss the crisis in Darfur, Sudan; debt relief; and the legal status of former Liberian President Charles Taylor. Taylor was captured by Nigerian authorities in late March 2006, after his failed attempt to flee to a 128 See CRS Report R40838, Illegal Drug Trade in Africa: Trends and U.S. Policy, by Liana Sun Wyler and Nicolas Cook. 129 Under APS, U.S. and partner naval ships deploy to the region for months at a time to serve as a continuing sea base of operations and a “floating schoolhouse” to provide assistance and training to the Gulf nations. Training focuses on maritime domain awareness and law enforcement, port facilities management and security, seamanship/navigation, search and rescue, leadership, logistics, civil engineering, humanitarian assistance and disaster response. 130 For more information on AFRICOM and Nigeria’s response to the command’s creation, see CRS Report RL34003, Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa, by Lauren Ploch. 131 “Security Beefed Up Around Taylor,” This Day (Nigeria), November 12, 2003. Congressional Research Service 29 Nigeria neighboring country. A day after Taylor’s arrest, Obasanjo visited Washington and met with President Bush. Taylor is now being tried by the SCSL at the Hague. U.S. Assistance to Nigeria The United States is the largest bilateral donor in Nigeria, providing an estimated $614 million in foreign assistance to the country in FY2010. Democratic governance, agriculture and economic reform, improved education and health services, professionalization and reform of the security services, and HIV/AIDS have been the main focus for U.S. assistance programs in Nigeria (see Table 1 for more on U.S. assistance to Nigeria). Nigeria is one of 15 focus countries under the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The State Department’s FY2011 budget request, which totals $647.7 million, includes approximately $567 million in funding for health programs. In 2008, the State Department’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) found that: Exceptionally high funding levels for HIV/AIDS create a clear imbalance in the embassy program mix and present a skewed picture of U.S. policy priorities. In addition, this level of HIV/AIDS funding has unintended consequences for Nigeria’s broader health infrastructure, monopolizing the country’s supplies of medical goods and services, including the qualified health professionals needed to meet Nigeria’s other health needs.132 Although the majority of requested health funding for FY2011 focuses on AIDS-related interventions, the funds also target other health concerns, including maternal and child health, malaria, and tuberculosis. U.S. health assistance focused on tuberculosis aims to double the case detection rate and halve Nigeria’s incidence in the next decade. In addition to health programs, the State Department’s FY2011 foreign assistance request for Nigeria includes funding for an array of programs focused on economic growth, education, and good governance. U.S. economic and agriculture assistance supports programs that will increase productivity and build trade and investment capacity. Such assistance also aims to address climate change, including through efforts to increase the production of clean energy and reduce gas flaring. As the FY2011 request points out, one-third of Nigeria’s 30 million school-aged children are not enrolled in school, and the request includes over $15 million in basic education funding. The FY2011 request would further increase assistance for programs aimed at strengthening democratic governance in Nigeria, up from $9.5 million in FY2008, $16 million in FY2009, and $21 million in FY2010, to over $25 million for the upcoming fiscal year. Such funding would provide continued support for capacity building at the state and local government level and for civil society and the media in preparation for the upcoming 2011 elections. FY2011 funds would also provide for the deployment of domestic election monitors. U.S. security assistance to Nigeria was suspended from FY2003 until 2006, when the State Department restarted a modest International Military Education and Training (IMET) program.133 Security cooperation has increased since then, and the State Department’s FY2011 security assistance request, which focuses on military professionalization, peacekeeping support and training, counter-narcotics, maritime security and law enforcement programs, includes $1 million 132 In FY2008, the U.S. government spent approximately $48 million through PEPFAR in Nigeria. U.S. Department of State Office of the Inspector General, Report on Inspection: Embassy Abuja and Consulate General Lagos, Nigeria, Report Number ISP-I-08-25A, July 2008. 133 P.L. 109-102 restricted FY2006 FMF and IMET funding for Nigeria due to issues related to former Liberian President Charles Taylor. Those restrictions were lifted after Nigeria surrendered Taylor to the SCSL. Congressional Research Service 30 Nigeria for IMET and $1.35 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF). The State Department’s FY2011 request also includes $2.5 million in International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE) funds to train Nigerian customs and law enforcement officials in counternarcotics interdiction techniques. Nigeria also receives maritime security assistance through the U.S. Navy’s Africa Partnership Station and the African Coastal and Border Security (ACBS) program.134 As an important troop contributor to peacekeeping missions, Nigeria continues to receive U.S. support through the African Contingency Operations Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program. The country also participates in security cooperation activities with the California National Guard through the National Guard State Partnership Program. U.S. counterterrorism assistance to Nigeria, as discussed above, includes a range of programs coordinated through TSCTP, including over $5 million in global Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining, and Related Programs (NADR) to improve Nigeria’s airport and port security, border control, aviation security, and crisis response capacities. Nigeria has also received security assistance through Department of Defense funds, including $2.2 million in “Section 1206” funding for the development of a counterterrorism infantry company and $6.2 million aimed at building the capacity of the country’s counterterrorism unit and its tactical communications interoperability.135 Nigeria also received coastal radar and communications training and equipment through regional Section 1206 programs, including the Gulf of Guinea Regional Maritime Awareness Capacity (RMAC) and Multi-National Information Sharing Initiative (MISI) programs. Recent Congressional Interest The United States Congress continues to monitor political developments in Nigeria. Most recently, on February 2010, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing “Examining the U.S.-Nigeria Relationship in a Time of Transition.” The 110th Congress closely followed Nigeria’s 2007 elections. On April 6, 2007, Representative Tom Lantos, then Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, issued a press release with three committee members expressing “serious concern about the prospects for free, fair, and peaceful conduct of the upcoming elections in Nigeria.” Representative Donald Payne, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, expressed similar concern in official statements. Following the elections, Senator Russ Feingold issued a statement condemning electoral irregularities, saying “President Obasanjo’s leadership over the last eight years has been called into question by the failure of efforts to reform Nigeria’s electoral system and combat political corruption. The Administration should not legitimize this election as doing so would undermine our commitment to good governance and transparency, and to building strong democracies.”136 The House Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health held a hearing entitled “Nigeria at a Crossroads: Elections, Legitimacy, and a Way Forward” on June 7, 2007. Nigeria’s flawed elections also featured prominently in a July 2007 hearing on Democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa by the Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs. 134 For more information on APS, see CRS Report RL34003, Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa, by Lauren Ploch. 135 For more information on DOD’s global train and equip or “Section 1206” authority, see CRS Report RS22855, Security Assistance Reform: “Section 1206” Background and Issues for Congress, by Nina M. Serafino. 136 See “Statement of U.S. Senator Russ Feingold on the Marred Nigerian Election,” April 23, 2007 at http://feingold.senate.gov. Congressional Research Service 31 Nigeria Congress continues to monitor Nigeria’s energy sector and its role in world oil supply, as well as humanitarian and human rights issues in the country. More recently, multiple congressional committees have held a series of hearings related to the attempted terrorist attack by a Nigerian citizen on a U.S. airliner in December 2009. In May 2010, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence issued a report on the attempted attack, finding “systematic failures across the Intelligence Community (IC), which contributed to the failure to identify the threat” posed by the individual.137 Concerns about the State Department’s visa process have also been raised in these hearings. Congressional investigations into the issue are ongoing. 137 Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, “Unclassified Executive Summary of the Committee Report on the Attempted Terrorist Attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253,” May 18, 2010. Congressional Research Service 32 Nigeria Table 1. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Nigeria Provided by the Department of State/USAID ($ millions, fiscal years) Program 2009 Estimate 2010 Estimate 2011 Request DA 67.1 71 76.3 GHCS 524.2 540.3 566.6 ESF - - - FMF 1.4 1.4 1.4 INCLE 0.7 0.5 2.5 IMET 0.9 1 1 NADR .05 .05 - Total 594.3 614.2 647.7 Source: U.S. Department of State annual Congressional Budget Justifications. Table Abbreviations: DA = Development Assistance GHCS = Global Health and Child Survival ESF = Economic Support Fund FMF = Foreign Military Financing IMET = International Military Education and Training (Notification required) INCLE = International Narcotics Control & Law Enforcement GHAI = Global HIV/AIDS Initiative NADR = Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining, and Related Programs Congressional Research Service 33 Nigeria Figure 1. Map of Nigeria Source: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Congressional Research Service 34 Nigeria Author Contact Information Lauren Ploch Analyst in African Affairs lploch@crs.loc.gov, 7-7640 Congressional Research Service 35The country was ruled by the military for almost three decades after independence before making the transition to civilian rule in 1999. Elections since the transition have been deemed flawed by both Nigerians and the international community, with each poll progressively worse than the last, according to many domestic and international observers. In the wake of the most recent elections, which were held in April 2007 and marred by fraud and political violence, the U.S. State Department expressed its view that the country remained in political transition.3 Human Rights Watch has contended that “Nigeria has not held a free and fair general election since the end of military rule.”4 Consequently, expectations are high for the next elections, scheduled for April 2011. The contest for power between north and south that has broadly defined Nigeria’s modern political history can be traced, in part, to administrative divisions instituted during Britain’s colonial administration.5 Northern military leaders dominated Nigerian politics from independence until the transition to democracy just over a decade ago. Today, the predominantly Muslim Hausa remain dominant in the military and the federal government, but have lost power in many state governments. Since the election of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999,6 there has been a de-facto power sharing arrangement referred to as “zoning” between the country’s geopolitical zones, through which the presidency is expected to rotate among the regions every two terms. President Obasanjo was from the southwest, and with his retirement pending in 2007 the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has dominated Nigerian politics in the past decade, chose Umaru Yar’Adua, then a northern governor, as its presidential candidate. The other main presidential contenders in the April 2007 election were also northerners. Upon President Yar’Adua’s untimely death in 2010, his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, took office for the remainder of his first term, raising questions as to whether the ruling party would chose another northern candidate to run in the 2011 race or support a run for the office by the sitting president. In January, President Jonathan secured the PDP nomination to stand as its candidate in the April election, leaving the future of the zoning arrangement unclear. 3 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 2008. 4 HRW, Election or ‘Selection’? Human Rights Abuses and Threats to Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria, April 2007, and “Nigeria: Presidential Election Marred by Fraud, Violence,” April 24, 2007. 5 Britain administered the north and south separately from the late 19th century until 1947, when it introduced a federal system that divided the country into three regions: Northern, Eastern, and Western. 6 Obasanjo, who had formerly served as a military head of state from 1976 to 1979, won 62.8% of the votes (18.7 million) in the February 1999 poll, while his challenger, Chief Olu Falae, received 37.2% of the votes (11.1 million). Obasanjo’s party won over half the votes in both the House and Senate elections. Congressional Research Service 2 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress The 2003 Elections In April 2003, Nigerians went to the polls for the second time under a civilian government. President Obasanjo, representing the ruling PDP, ran against another former military leader, General Muhammadu Buhari; a former rebel leader, Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, who led the secessionist region of Biafra in Nigeria’s civil war in the 1960s; and former foreign minister Ike Nwachukwu. Obasanjo won, and the PDP party also won in legislative elections. 7 The elections were marred by serious irregularities and fraud, according to both domestic and international election observers, with much emphasis placed on “inadequate election administration.” Controversy surrounded the voter registration process, the certification of candidates, and poor logistical preparations. One election official allegedly admitted that the voters’ register was “2530% fiction.”8 Reports of electoral malfeasance, or rigging, were also noted. Ballot box stuffing, falsification of election result forms, and threats of violence were among the most serious charges. In some states, observers noted “systematic attempts at all stages of the voting process to alter the election results.”9 Although reports of rigging varied widely among states, the extent of irregularities caused some to suggest that they “compromised the integrity of the elections where they occurred.”10 The European Union delegation noted that in at least six states “the minimum standards for democratic elections were not met.”11 Several election results were later overturned. 2007 Elections Nigeria’s third national elections since the return to civilian rule were held in April 2007, amid widespread allegations of electoral mismanagement and fraud. The Nigerian Senate had rejected a bid by Obasanjo supporters in 2006 to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third term. Facing retirement, President Obasanjo backed Umaru Yar’Adua, a northern governor largely unknown to many Nigerians, as the ruling party’s presidential candidate.12 Yar’Adua’s running mate, Goodluck Jonathan, had served as governor of Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta. Yar’Adua was declared the winner with over 24.6 million votes, or 70%. Some critics suggest that Obasanjo “hand-picked” Yar’Adua in order to retain political influence after he left office.13 The country’s two largest opposition parties, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Action Congress (AC), rejected the election results. The ANPP’s presidential candidate, General Buhari, who had lost the election in 2003 to Obasanjo, received an estimated 6 million votes. The AC’s candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, was not among the 24 presidential contenders approved by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), allegedly 7 According to official results, Obasanjo won 62% of the votes, while his nearest rival, General Buhari, won 32%. HRW, Election or ‘Selection’? Human Rights Abuses and Threats to Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria, April 2007. 9 The International Republican Institute (IRI), 2003 Election Observation Report. 10 The National Democratic Institute (NDI), “Statement of the NDI International Election Observer Delegation to Nigeria’s April 19 Presidential and Gubernatorial Elections,” April 21, 2003. 11 The European Union, EU Election Observation Final Report: Nigeria. 8 12 Yar’Adua, a former chemistry professor, was elected governor of Katsina in 1999. His better-known older brother, the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, served as Vice President under Obasanjo in the first military regime to transfer power to civilian rule, and he was reported to be one of Nigeria’s wealthiest and most powerful men. Shehu died in prison in 1997 after having been sentenced by a military tribunal for treason after calling for dictator Sani Abacha to reestablish civilian rule. Yar’Adua’s father was a prominent minster in the first government after independence. 13 International Crisis Group, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Africa Report 123, March 28, 2007. Congressional Research Service 3 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress because of pending corruption charges against him. 14 His exclusion exacerbated tensions during the pre-election period, and his supporters contend he was unjustly excluded by INEC because he had opposed Obasanjo’s third term. A last-minute ruling by the Supreme Court restored Abubakar to the ballot, and he placed third with an estimated 2.6 million votes. The ruling PDP won the majority of the state and federal elections, including 28 of the 36 state governorships. Opposition gubernatorial candidates won in seven states, including the two most populous states, Lagos and Kano. The results of many elections were challenged in the courts, based on allegations of fraud, threats of violence, or the inability of voters to cast their ballots. Ultimately, the results of almost a third of the gubernatorial races were annulled and, in most of those cases, elections were rerun, although many of the candidates who won in the first round won again in the second. By the end of 2009, the PDP had held onto 25 governorships and picked up three others, after winning opposition candidates changed parties and joined the PDP. Opposition candidates were awarded governorships in two states after PDP wins were overturned by election tribunals. The PDP’s gubernatorial win in Anambra state was nullified by the Supreme Court, which allowed the incumbent governor, from an opposition party, to keep his seat.15 The elections of several legislators, including Senate President David Mark, were also annulled. An appeals court later overturned the ruling on Mark’s election and he kept his seat. A tribunal hearing the challenges to President Yar’Adua’s win reached its verdict in February 2008, finding insufficient evidence to overturn the presidential election. Nigeria’s Supreme Court upheld that verdict in a December 2008 ruling. Domestic and international observer groups were highly critical of the 2007 elections, and many questioned the credibility of the election results. Violations and irregularities reported by election observers included polling locations opening late, closing early, or not opening at all; errors on the ballots; underage voting; vote buying; ballot box stuffing and theft; and falsified results sheets. Media reports also documented widespread incidents of thuggery and coercion at polling places.16 The largest domestic monitoring group suggested that elections were so flawed that they should be held again.17 According to the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) delegation, led by former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and several former world leaders, “in many places, and in a number of ways, the electoral process failed the Nigerian people. The cumulative effect ... substantially compromised the integrity of the electoral process.”18 The European Union delegation declared that the elections “have not lived up to the hopes and expectations of the Nigerian people and the process cannot be considered to have been credible.” The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) delegation was similarly critical, suggesting that “irregularities and the sporadic violence characterized and challenged the validity of the elections.”19 The U.S.-based International Republican Institute (IRI) called the elections 14 The March 2007 decision by INEC to exclude Abubakar from the ballot was part of a complex series of legal battles between the Obasanjo Administration and Abubakar, a founding member of the PDP, who was linked to a bribery case involving the Petroleum Trust Fund and accused of stealing over $125 million in federal oil funds. 15 The Supreme Court ruled that the incumbent, Peter Obi, who had lost to a PDP candidate in the 2003 gubernatorial election but had been awarded the seat in 2006 after a court overturned the 2003 PDP win, could serve the rest of his four-year. Obi won a second term when new elections were held in February 2010. 16 See, for example, “Nigerian: Forced to Vote Against My Wish,” BBC, April 23, 2007. 17 “Call for Nigeria Street Protests,” BBC, April 24, 2007. 18 NDI, “Statement of the National Democratic Institute International Election Observer Delegation to Nigeria’s April 21 Presidential and National Assembly Elections,” April 23, 2007. 19 “Nigeria: Elections Fraudulent; EU, Others,” Daily Trust (Abuja), April 24, 2007. Congressional Research Service 4 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress “below acceptable standards,” noting that the resolution of election disputes would be “critical” to restoring the credibility of the country’s democratic process.20 In the aftermath of the elections, President Obasanjo reportedly acknowledged some electoral irregularities, notably “logistical failures,” violence, and ballot box theft, but indicated that elections would not be re-held, saying “the magnitude does not make the results null and void.”21 Opposition calls for mass protests went largely unheeded, although thousands reportedly gathered in the streets of Kano, northern Nigeria’s largest city, before being dispersed by police with tear gas. World oil prices rose to $68 a barrel in the week after the election, based in part on concerns surrounding the disputed polls. 22 Despite speculation that questions surrounding the credibility of the election results might trigger a military coup, Yar’Adua’s inauguration was unimpeded. The 2011 Elections: Challenges and Opportunities President Yar’Adua conceded in his inaugural speech that the 2007 elections were flawed and subsequently appointed a panel of government officials, former judges, and civil society representatives to recommend changes to the country’s electoral institutions. The Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) issued its findings in December 2008, but the government was slow to commence reforms. In mid-2010, the parliament approved the first of several amendments to the country’s electoral laws to incorporate some of the ERC’s recommendations and increase transparency in the electoral process. Among the most significant of the reforms were those to increase INEC’s independence and fiscal autonomy. INEC’s credibility had been badly damaged by the 2003 and 2007 elections,23 and President Jonathan won praise from both Nigerians and the international community for removing the sitting INEC chairman from office in April 2010 and replacing him with a respected academic and civil society activist, Professor Attahiru Jega, in June. Concerns remain regarding the independence of some state-level electoral election commissioners,24 but, according to a recent survey, over 60% of Nigerians have confidence in the current electoral commission, and 74% of Nigerians think the 2011 polls will be more credible than the last.25 The Jonathan Administration has generally been seen as supportive of Jega’s efforts to improve the electoral process, backing his budget request and his proposal to delay elections from January to April to allow more time to prepare the 2011 polls. A January 2011 rerun of the flawed 2007 gubernatorial elections in Delta state has been viewed by some as a test for INEC’s new management. Observer reports suggest that, while rigging and 20 IRI “Nigeria’s Elections Below Acceptable Standards: Preliminary Findings of IRI’s International Election Observation Mission,” April 22, 2007. 21 “Obasanjo Appeals to Nigerians Over Election Results,” Radio Nigeria-Abuja, April 23, 2007, and “Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo Says Elections Flawed, But Not Fatally,” Associated Press, April 25, 2007. 22 “Landslide Win for Yar’Adua is ‘Flawed,’” Financial Times, April 23, 2007. 23 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Africa Report No. 123, March 28, 2007, p. 14. 24 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Africa Briefing No.79, February 24, 2011; Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart, Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria, U.S. Institute for Peace, December 2010. 25 IRI, Nigerian National Survey, released February 1, 2011. The poll was conducted between November 29 and December 7, 2010. Neither the Yar’Adua or Jonathan Administrations adopted the ERC recommendation that the INEC chair should be chosen independently, rather than by the president. Congressional Research Service 5 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress voter intimidation still occurred, the poll was an improvement over previous elections in a state heavily controlled by the ruling party. According to one report, “the Delta rerun demonstrated both the potential for INEC to administer improved elections with the support of communities and the risk that political actors can still overwhelm reforms with systematic fraud.”26 Many analysts contend that INEC, under Chairman Jega, has demonstrated the will, if not necessarily the capacity, to overcome problems in the 2011 polls. As mentioned above, there has been an unwritten agreement that the presidency should rotate among the country’s regions. President Yar’Adua’s early demise and Jonathan’s assumption of the post led many observers to debate whether Jonathan’s decision to vie for the presidency in 2011 would lead the ruling party to split. Prior to the PDP party primaries in January, many northerners argued that since Yar’Adua was from the north and had only served one term, a candidate from their region should hold the office for another term, given that former President Obasanjo, who was from the south, had two terms in office. Some reports suggest a lack of consensus among the ruling party elite on the zoning issue and presidential succession contributed to the apparent reluctance by Yar’Adua’s cabinet to formally transfer power to Jonathan in early 2010 (see below). Jonathan ultimately won the support of several key northern PDP leaders, including a majority of the northern governors, for his candidacy, and in January 2011, he won the party primary overwhelmingly, with over 2,700 votes against roughly 800 for his rival, Atiku Abubakar.27 Jonathan has declared that he will not seek a second term in 2016 if elected. Some Nigeria watchers argue that the de-facto suspension of the zoning arrangement may increase the potential for regional and ethnic conflict, making the presidential contest “more dangerous and destabilizing” as voters face the choice of a southern, Christian candidate running against a field of primarily northern, Muslim presidential contenders.28 Others argue that Nigeria’s political parties are geographically, as well as religiously, diverse, and that, in order to win, any presidential candidate must be able to draw support not just from one region or voting bloc, but from across the country.29 They also note that a southern candidate, Obasanjo, ran against a northern candidate, Buhari, in the 2003 election without major upheaval. President Jonathan, along with his running mate, Vice President Namadi Sambo (a former northern governor), is among almost 20 candidates contesting the presidency, including Muhammadu Buhari, representing the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); former head of Nigeria’s anti-corruption authority Nuhu Ribadu, representing the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); and Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekaru, representing the ANPP. These three leading contenders all hail from the north and have chosen running mates from the south. 26 Stakeholder Democracy Network, The Delta Governorship Rerun: Signposts and Storm Warnings for the 2011 Elections, February 24, 2011. Observers credit, in part, a new alternative “accreditation voting” system that INEC has adopted, under which all voters must check in at their polling station before voting can begin. Some suggest this system could affect turnout and disenfranchise certain segments of the population because of the additional time commitment, but INEC argues that it increases transparency. See also ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Ibid. 27 Some reports suggest that Jonathan may have had an arrangement with the PDP governors to ensure his election by their states’ delegates in return for his support for their own re-election campaigns. See ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Ibid. INEC dismissed a petition filed by Abubakar challenging Jonathan’s primary win. 28 John Campbell, “Nigeria: Closer to the Brink?” Rowman & Littlefield, November 12, 2010, and “Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan Gets the PDP Nomination,” Huffington Post, January 21, 2011. 29 Howard F. Jeter and Gwendolyn Mikell, “ Nigeria on the Brink: a Rejoinder,” September 27, 2010. Under Nigeria’s constitution, a presidential candidate must win at least 25% of votes cast in at least two-thirds of the country’s states and the Federal Capital Territory. If they fail to do so, a run-off will be held. Congressional Research Service 6 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress With over 73 million registered voters, almost 120,000 polling stations, and more than 50 parties competing in the upcoming polls, the challenges in administering elections in Nigeria are daunting. The 2011 elections were scheduled to be held on three successive Saturdays, beginning April 2; however, logistical delays in the delivery of materials to polling stations across the country resulted in the delay of the April 2 parliamentary elections by a week, to April 9. This has pushed the timing of the presidential elections to April 16 and the gubernatorial and state assembly elections to April 23. The delay may reinforce concerns regarding the credibility of the polls. Gubernatorial elections are not expected to be held in 11 states where post-2007 election court cases led to the overturning of election results or the rerun of elections.30 Observers have noted some positive developments in the pre-election period, but continue to raise concerns about electoral preparedness, ballot secrecy, and transparency in the counting of ballots and tabulation of results.31 They also warn that potential for voter intimidation, disenfranchisement, and fraud, as well as political violence, remains high. A summary of issues raised by official observer groups and advocacy organizations prior to the elections follows: • Party Primaries. Despite ERC recommendations to increase the transparency and fairness of the political parties’ primaries, the International Crisis Group has declared that the recent round of primaries were “as manipulated as ever,” resulting in numerous court challenges to the parties’ candidate lists.32 Observers have expressed concern that last minute court rulings related to the candidate lists could require the reprinting of ballots and cause delays on election day. • Voter Registration. Turnout was high for the most recent voter registration exercise, launched in January 2011. The registration period was extended by over a week due to technical and logistical problems that led to registration centers opening late, or, in some cases, not at all. According to the final voters list, 73.5 million voters registered.33 INEC has reported over 870,000 cases of multiple registration, contributing to concerns about “widespread but not yet systemic fraud.”34 INEC has charged several of its own staff with offences associated with the registration process. The validity of the new voters list is, to date, unknown, but observers generally deem it an improvement over previous efforts. • Electoral Malfeasance. Previous elections have been marred by various types of fraud, including the falsification of voter information, bribery, theft, incitement, and the harassment of domestic observers, opposition candidates, and supporters. Early reports suggest that the 2011 elections are likely to feature many of these practices, although some speculate that there may be a shift “from blatant fraud with state acquiescence to a pattern of suppressing opposition voting areas while 30 Pending another court ruling, gubernatorial elections are not expected to be held in Adamawa, Bayelsa, Cross Rivers, Delta, Kogi, and Sokoto states, where rerun elections were held after the 2007 elections. Gubernatorial elections are also not expected in Ondo, Osum, Edo, and Ekiti, where the current governors won appeals overturning the 2007 results, or in Anambra, which had its gubernatorial election in February 2010. 31 See, e.g., IRI, “Statement of IRI’s Pre-Election Assessment Mission,” March 3, 2011; NDI, “Nigeria Election Watch,” Issue 3, March 15, 2011. 32 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Ibid; NDI, “Nigeria Election Watch,” Issue 3, Ibid. 33 INEC has attributed a discrepancy between the final registration figure and the provisional total released on February 21, 67.8 million, to the lack of an efficient communications between its headquarters and the local election officials conducting the registration exercise. 34 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?” Ibid. Congressional Research Service 7 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress inflating strongolds.”35 Many observers suggest that the potential for rigging is particularly high in the gubernatorial races. When the Electoral Reform Committee issued its findings in 2008, it noted that the Nigerian government had not convicted and punished a single individual for election-related offenses since independence. 36 Human Rights Watch reports that under Jega’s leadership, INEC has initiated criminal proceedings against several dozen individuals in the six months prior to the 2011 elections, but that “these cases have barely scratched the surface.”37 Civil society has called on the courts to resolve election petitions and appeals in a timely manner, but some suggest that the mounting elections-related caseload threatens to overwhelm the judiciary. • Political Violence. By some estimates, as many as 300 people may have been killed in violence related to the 2007 elections, and, since November 2010, more than 70 people have been killed in violence linked to the 2011 polls.38 Violence tied to the 2011 elections has included clashes between party supporters and several assassinations. Poll-related security concerns have been further heightened by a spate of bombings during political rallies. The threat of violence is reportedly high in certain “hot spots”, including Bauchi, Borno, and Yobi states in the north; Plateau state in central Nigeria; and Abia, Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers states in the south; among others. In the southern Niger Delta region, a spokesman for the militant group MEND has threatened attacks, and several bombings at political rallies have been attributed to the group. Political killings in Borno state have included the assassination of a gubernatorial candidate and six of his supporters. The militant Islamist group Boko Haram claimed responsibility, raising concerns that the group seeks to influence the polls; many suggest the killings were politically motivated. Observers have expressed particular concern with the potential for further sectarian violence in central Nigeria, particularly in Plateau state, where elections have previously been a flashpoint for violence. Over 1,000 people have been killed in local clashes in the state in the past year. President Jonathan and Chairman Jega have pledged to increase security during the upcoming elections. Jonathan met with the country’s traditional Muslim leaders in northern Nigeria, including the Sultan of Sokoto, in late March to seek their support in efforts to reduce communal tensions surrounding the polls. The government showed a significant commitment to increasing the presence of security forces during recent elections in Anambra and Delta states, deploying over 20,000 police for each poll. The INEC chairman has pledged to have at least two policemen at each polling station in April, but observers suggest the Nigerian police lack the capacity to deploy nationally in the numbers needed. 35 Stakeholder Democracy Network, The Delta Governorship Rerun, Ibid. Report of the Electoral Reform Committee, “Volume 1, Main Report,” December 2008, 37 HRW, A Human Rights Agenda for Candidates in Nigeria’s 2011 Elections, Ibid. 38 HRW, “Nigeria: Pass Bill to Prosecute Electoral Abuses,” March 13, 2011. 36 Congressional Research Service 8 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress The Death of President Yar’Adua and the Transition of Power Questions about President Yar’Adua’s health plagued his administration throughout his tenure. Many speculate that he suffered from a chronic kidney condition, and when he was hospitalized in Saudi Arabia in November 2009, reportedly with acute pericarditis (inflammation of the lining around the heart), his absence threatened to spark a political crisis. His prolonged absence from public view spurred rumors of his death before he ostensibly held an interview from Saudi Arabia, via BBC radio, on January 12, 2010. Government officials reported that he was responding to treatment and recuperating, but questions as to his fitness to govern grew. The Nigerian Bar Association and a prominent human rights lawyer launched legal suits suggesting that Yar’Adua had violated the constitution by not officially transferring power to his Vice President during his absence.39 Further constitutional questions were raised about several judicial appointments, including that of a new chief justice of the Supreme Court.40 Some observers contend that the president was incapacitated, and that a group of close advisors including his wife, who strictly controlled access to the president, were making decisions on his behalf.41 President Yar’Adua’s continued absence also raised concerns regarding a tenuous ceasefire with Niger Delta militants. During his hospitalization abroad, Yar’Adua reportedly signed the government’s 2009 supplemental budget, which contained several projects earmarked for the troubled region. Some opposition leaders questioned whether the president actually signed the document himself.42 In early January 2010, one of the Delta’s militant factions claimed responsibility for the bombing of an oil pipeline in Rivers State, calling the attack a “warning strike,” noting the president’s absence, and suggesting that a “meaningful dialogue” on the region’s problems had yet to occur.43 The militants threatened to continue attacks until Goodluck Jonathan was named acting president or until Yar’Adua returned to office. Pressure for President Yar’Adua to transfer presidential authority until he recovered increased in early February 2010. Vice President Jonathan had presided over cabinet meetings after Yar’Adua’s departure, and he used executive powers in January to deploy troops to quell sectarian violence in Jos, but he had not moved to assume full authority. At the behest of the Senate, the cabinet declared Yar’Adua fit for office in late January, and a Nigerian court ruled that there was no need for a formal transfer of power during the president’s “medical vacation.” Nevertheless, the country’s influential state governors met in early February, issuing a call for the vice president to become acting president. Under pressure from the governors, the Senate and National Assembly subsequently passed resolutions recognizing Jonathan as the acting head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The cabinet accepted parliament’s decision. Although the resolutions were not legally binding and could ultimately be questioned in court, the move allowed Jonathan to conduct critical government business. In one of his first acts as acting head of state, Jonathan replaced the influential justice minister, who was reportedly among the most vocally opposed to the formal transfer of power. In June 2010, in response to the ambiguity surrounding Jonathan’s assumption of duties as acting president, the parliament approved a constitutional amendment addressing procedures for the temporary transfer of presidential powers to the vice president in the event of the president’s absence or inability to discharge his duties. The U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria welcomed Goodluck Jonathan’s assumption of the title of acting president, calling Nigeria’s commitment to constitutional process and the rule of law “commendable.”44 The Obama Administration warned against efforts by others to “upset Nigeria’s stability and create renewed uncertainty in the democratic process.”45 On May 5, 2010, the Nigerian government announced the death of ailing President Umaru Yar’Adua at age 58. Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as Nigeria’s new president the following day, choosing as his vice president Namadi Sambo, a former architect who was elected governor of the northern state of Kaduna in 2007. 39 Nigeria’s constitution requires the President to submit a written declaration to the Senate and the House of Representatives delegating powers to the Vice President as Acting President in the event that he travels on vacation or is unable to discharge the functions of his office, but there is no timeline identified for doing so. Parliament passed an amendment to the constitution in June 2010 to provide more clarity to the procedure. 40 See, e.g., “How We Averted Chaos, by VP,” This Day (Abuja), January 4, 2010. 41 See, for example, John Campbell, “Nigeria Fragmented and Unstable,” Huffington Post, March 5, 2010, and “On Her Majesty’s Secret Service,” Africa Confidential, March 5. 2010. 42 “Buhari, Atiku Doubt Signing of Budget by Yar’Adua,” This Day, January 4, 2010. 43 “MEND’s Fresh Resurgence As Yar’Adua’s Absence Enters 2nd Month,” AllAfrica, January 4, 2010. 44 Press Statement by the U.S. Embassy in Abuja, February 12, 2010. 45 State Department Daily Press Briefing, February 26, 2010; State Department Spokesman, “Political Situation in Nigeria, March , 2010; and Briefing by the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs on February 24, 2010. Congressional Research Service 9 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Development Challenges and Reform Initiatives Nigeria has the second-largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and generates over $60 billion a year in oil and gas revenue, and yet many of its people are among the continent’s poorest. As many as 70% of Nigerians live beneath the poverty line, and the average life expectancy is less than 47 years. Nigeria has the world’s second-largest HIV/AIDS population (after South Africa). Access to clean water remains a major challenge—almost half the population has no access to improved sources of water and only 17% are served by piped water. Sanitation is also a problem, with 30% of people lacking access to adequate sanitation. Diarrhea remains the second-leading cause of death among Nigerian children, and the country ranks second only to India in the number of diarrhea-related child deaths globally. The country ranks 142 of 169 countries on U.N. Development Program’s (UNDP) 2010 Human Development Index.46 Due to decades of economic mismanagement, political instability, and widespread corruption, Nigeria’s education and social services systems have suffered from lack of funding, industry has idled, and Africa’s largest oil-producing country suffers periodically from severe fuel shortages. When Goodluck Jonathan assumed power in February 2010 from the ailing President Yar’Adua, he made public commitments to “restoring Nigeria’s image” abroad, both by continuing to act as a key partner in regional peace and counterterrorism efforts, and by ending the “culture of impunity” in Nigeria by addressing corruption and human rights concerns.47 He vowed to continue President Yar’Adua’s reform initiatives. Those efforts are discussed below. Reforms to the Petroleum and Energy Sectors Nigeria’s economy depends heavily on its oil sector, and for decades, as the country’s extractive industries grew, many of its other industries stagnated or declined. According to the World Bank, oil and gas production accounts for 85% of government revenues and 95% of export earnings, but the sector’s share of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has fallen because of decreased output, which does not meet the country’s estimated oil production capacity of 3 million barrels per day (bdp). Despite increased deepwater oil production, persistent conflict and criminality in the oil-producing Niger Delta region and swings in world oil prices have threatened Nigeria’s fiscal outlook. According to the IMF, annual GDP growth fell from 7% in 2007 to an estimated 6% in 2008, but rose to an estimated 8.4% in 2010. Economists suggest that the economy continues to underperform because of poor infrastructure and electricity shortages, although the manufacturing and telecommunications sectors have performed better in recent years. Agricultural production contributes over one-third of GDP, but less than 5% of exports. President Jonathan has stressed his commitment to reforming the oil and gas industry. In 2007, the government announced plans to restructure the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which oversees regulation of the industry and has been criticized for its lack of transparency. President Yar’Adua appointed a committee to Nigeria’s contracts with foreign oil companies, a process through which the committee chair suggested, “we may have to reconsider some of our generous terms.”48 President Jonathan appointed Nigeria’s first female oil minister, 46 The UNDP index is a composite measure of life expectancy, adult literacy and school enrollment, and income. 47 President Jonathan has referred to Nigeria’s “culture of impunity” in several speeches, including one quoted in “Again, We’ve Succeeded in Moving Nigeria Forward - Jonathan,” Daily Champion (Lagos), February 10, 2010. 48 Matthew Green, “Nigeria Considers Oil Contracts Review,” Financial Times, October 23, 2007. Congressional Research Service 10 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Diezani Allison-Madueke, a former executive with Royal Dutch Shell, in 2010. She is leading the administration’s efforts to press parliament to pass the ambitious Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which would restructure the NNPC and reportedly increase transparency within the industry. Nigeria was designated compliant with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a global standard for transparency in the oil, gas, and mining sectors, in March 2011. Despite its position as one of the world’s largest exporters of oil, Nigeria imports an estimated $10 billion in refined fuel annually, and it continues to face a nationwide power crisis.49 In an effort to increase its refining capacity, the government has granted permits for the construction of several independently owned refineries. The government aims to halt oil imports by 2020. The Jonathan Administration has also pledged to increase Nigeria’s electricity generation by 10 times over the next decade, and President Jonathan has emphasized this as a key priority in his 2011 presidential campaign. Efforts to privatize power stations and distribution companies are underway, despite objections from the country’s trade unions. The Obama Administration recently praised the Nigerian government for its progress in rehabilitating the power sector.50 In 2010, with two of Nigeria’s existing four oil refineries running at only 60% capacity, the NNPC signed an agreement worth an estimated $23 billion with China for the construction of three new refineries.51 Nigeria is also in the process of increasing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which are expected to surpass revenues derived from oil exports in the next decade. Nigeria now transmits natural gas to Benin, Togo, and Ghana through the new West Africa Gas Pipeline. The initiative, led by Chevron, had been delayed due to supply shortages resulting from sabotage to production facilities in the Niger Delta. Reports suggest that gas supplies have increased as pipelines have been repaired since 2009. Financial Sector Reforms Successive Nigerian administrations have made commitments to economic reform, but their track record is mixed. According to the IMF, reforms initiated under the Obasanjo Administration and continued by his successors, most importantly the policies of maintaining low external debt and budgeting based on a conservative oil price benchmark to create a buffer of international reserves, lessened the impact of the recent global financial crisis on Nigeria’s economy.52 Oil revenues above the benchmark price have been saved since 2003 in an Excess Crude Account (ECA), although the government drew substantially from the account in 2009-2010 in an effort to stimulate economic recovery. The ECA’s balance fell from $20 billion in early 2009 to less than $500 million in September 2010, but Nigerian officials report that the rise in the price of oil brought the ECA back above $2 billion at the end of 2010.53 The country has made significant gains in paying down its external debt, which declined from 36% of GDP in 2004 to 2.2% in 2010. By paying down its external debt, the Nigerian government has freed over $750 million for 49 Jon Gambrell, “Nigeria, China sign $23B Deal to Build Refineries in Oil Rich, but Gasoline-Starved Nation,” Associated Press, May 14, 2010. 50 U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Commends Nigerian Authorities on Power Sector Reforms,” January 14, 2011. 51 “Two Nigerian Refineries Running at 60 Pct Capacity,” Reuters, March 30, 2010. 52 International Monetary Fund, “Staff Report for the Article IV Consultation with Nigeria,” January 27, 2011. The price benchmarks set by the Nigerian government are $58/barrel for 2011, $60 for 2012, and $62 for 2013. 53 EIU, “Nigeria,” Country Reports, March 2011. Congressional Research Service 11 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress programs aimed at poverty reduction and reaching the country’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), according to the World Bank.54 Like his predecessors, President Jonathan has committed his Administration to reforms that aim to fuel development. He named a former Goldman Sachs official, Olusegun Aganga, as finance minister to lead the reforms, which include an audit of the NNPC and the proposed creation of a sovereign wealth fund. Jonathan retained Lamido Sanusi, appointed under President Yar’Adua as governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, who has led efforts to modernize the country’s banking system. He has pushed reforms to tighten banking supervision and in late 2009 instituted new regulations that require banks to report large cash transactions between accounts if one of the account holders is considered to be “politically exposed.” Bank audits ordered by Sanusi in 2009 found 10 banks near collapse due to reckless lending; most of the banks’ top executives were fired. The government provided $4 billion in 2009 to rescue the banks, and in December 2010, under pressure from Sanusi, the parliament approved the establishment of the Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) to buy bad bank loans in exchange for government bonds, in an effort to get the banks lending again. AMCON is jointly funded by the central bank and the finance ministry. Some analysts expect it to take up to a decade for AMCON to divest itself of all its toxic assets, which total over $14 billion.55 The government is pursuing debtors and prosecuting several bank executives. Efforts to Combat Corruption According to the U.S. State Department, corruption in Nigeria is “massive, widespread, and pervasive.”56 In 2008, Nigeria’s ranking on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index improved from 147 to 121 out of 180 countries, but it fell in 2009, and again in 2010, to a ranking of 134.57 Nigeria also has one of the world’s highest incidences of cyber crime, including “419 scams,” so-named for the country’s penal code that outlaws fraudulent e-mails. For years observers have suggested that the country’s development will be hindered until it can reverse its perceived “culture of impunity for political and economic crimes.”58 The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), a Nigerian law enforcement agency created in 2003 to combat corruption and fraud, has estimated that over $380 billion has been expropriated by political and military leaders since oil sales began in the 1970s.59 Former dictator Sani Abacha reportedly stole more than $3.5 billion during the course of his five years in power. Switzerland was the first country to repatriate stolen funds to Nigeria and has returned over $700 million since 2005. According to a study by the World Bank, a significant percentage of those funds have been used by the Nigerian government toward meeting the country’s Millennium Development Goals. The government has also recovered funds stolen by Abacha and his family from the autonomous British island of Jersey and from Luxembourg. Other Abacha funds remain 54 World Bank, “Nigeria: Country Brief,” April 2010, available at http://www.worldbank.org. 55 AMCON bought non-performing loans from 9 rescued banks and margin loans from 12 other domestic banks. EIU, “Nigeria, Ibid. 56 U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” Country Report on Human Rights Practices 2009, March 2010. 57 The Corruption Perceptions Index measures the perceptions of business people and country analysts regarding the degree of corruption among public officials and politicians. A high score indicates greater levels of corruption. 58 International Crisis Group, “Want in the Midst of Plenty,” Africa Report No. 113, July 19, 2006. 59 “Strong Convictions: Nigeria’s First Anticorruption Czar,” Christian Science Monitor, February 8, 2007. Congressional Research Service 12 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress frozen in accounts in Europe. In late 2009, a Swiss court convicted Abacha’s son of participating in a criminal organization and seized $350 million in assets stolen from Nigeria. The Nigerian government won praise under President Obasanjo for some of its efforts to combat the rampant corruption that has plagued Nigeria, but some charge that the former head of state used corruption charges to sideline critics and political opponents. Investigations by the EFCC resulted in the arrest of over 2,000 responsible for illegal email scams and in over 130 convictions for fraud during Obasanjo’s tenure.60 However, the International Crisis Group (ICG) suggested that the EFCC was “used as a political weapon to whip political foes, especially state governors likely to stand for the presidency and their supporters, into line.”61 Five state governors, some of whom were considered contenders for the PDP presidential nomination, were impeached in 20052006 for corruption.62 ICG charged that the impeachments, three of which were reversed in appeals courts, were conducted under heightened military presence in those states and lacked due process.63 Under President Obasanjo the EFCC conducted investigations into the alleged financial crimes of 31 of the country’s 36 state governors; several were prosecuted. In February 2007, the EFCC released a list of 135 candidates in the April elections who were “unfit to hold public office because of corruption,” of which 53 were PDP and 82 opposition candidates.64 The legality of INEC’s decision to bar candidates on the EFCC’s list from the elections was questioned. President Yar’Adua, reportedly a devout Muslim, campaigned on a platform of fighting corruption; in 1999 he became the first governor to publicly declare his assets before he was sworn in. Upon taking office, he ordered the review of all privatization agreements approved by former President Obasanjo, amid charges of corruption associated with the sales, and subsequently reversed several contracts. President Yar’Adua moved to distance himself from the former president, dismissing many of Obasanjo’s political appointees and military leaders in late 2008 and overturning several key government contracts made by the former administration. In December 2008, he proposed that the National Assembly amend the constitution to remove the immunity clause which prevents the president, vice president, governors, and deputy governors from being prosecuted for corruption while in office. The proposal has not been adopted. In late 2007, Nigeria’s Inspector General of Police announced that EFCC head Nuhu Ribadu was being transferred from his post. Some questioned whether Ribadu’s transfer was linked to his order two weeks earlier for the arrest of former Delta State Governor James Ibori, one of the primary financial contributors to Yar’Adua’s presidential campaign. The Executive Director of the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime wrote a letter to President Yar’Adua suggesting Ribadu’s removal could be detrimental to ongoing investigations and might damage the reputation of the EFCC in the view of international donors.65 Ribadu was later dismissed from the police service. The EFCC continued to prosecute high profile cases after Ribadu’s departure, and several EFCC operatives were reportedly murdered in retaliation in early 2010. In early 2008, the commission ordered the arrest of Lucky Igbinedion, former governor of Edo State, who is alleged to have stolen $25 million in state funds. He later submitted a plea bargain and was released with a fine. 60 “Strong Convictions: Nigeria’s First Anti-Corruption Czar,” Christian Science Monitor, February 8, 2007. ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Ibid. 62 The impeached governors represented Bayelsa, Oyo, Ekiti, Anambra, and Plateau States. 63 ICG, “Nigeria’s Elections: Avoiding A Political Crisis,” Ibid. 64 “Strong Convictions: Nigeria’s First Anticorruption Czar,” Christian Science Monitor, February 8, 2007. 65 Matthew Green, “Nigerian Anti-Graft Police Arrest Governor,” Reuters, January 22, 2008. 61 Congressional Research Service 13 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress In June 2008, the Nigerian Senate unanimously approved the appointment of a former highranking police officer, Farida Waziri, to replace Ribadu as EFCC Chair. Some in Nigerian civil society alleged that Waziri was appointed to derail the prosecution of Ibori and others.66 Ibori’s case was dropped by a federal judge in December 2009, but the EFCC obtained a new warrant for his arrest in April 2010, alleging that Ibori embezzled over $250 million. Ibori eluded capture after his armed supporters reportedly exchanged fire with Nigerian security forces. He fled Nigeria and was arrested by Interpol in Dubai in May 2010. He faces extradition to the United Kingdom, where he has been charged with money laundering. The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has faced several charges of corruption against senior leaders, including Vincent Ogbulafor, who resigned as national chairman of the party in 2010 to stand trial for fraud during his tenure as a government minister in 2001.67 Ogbulafor’s former deputy and now acting PDP chairman, Dr. Bello Mohammed, a former communications minister, was reportedly questioned in 2010 in relation to bribes paid to government officials by the German telecommunications firm Siemens. In 2009, a Nigerian court sentenced former PDP Chairman Olabode George, a close ally of Obasanjo, to 2.5 years in prison for misuse of $500 million in public funds during his tenure as head of the Nigerian Ports Authority. Former President Obasanjo himself has not escaped charges of corruption. In 2007, a Nigerian Senate committee report recommended that both Obasanjo and Atiku Abubakar be prosecuted for illegal use of government funds. Obasanjo rejected the charges. Other parliamentary panels have investigated allegations of corruption during his tenure as president. His daughter, who chairs Nigeria’s Senate Health Committee, was charged by the EFCC in 2008 with fraud. Several multinational corporations have been investigated for paying bribes in Nigeria. In December 2007, Nigeria suspended its contracts with Siemens after a German court found the company guilty of paying an estimated 10 million euro in bribes to Nigerian officials between 2001 and 2004.68 An alleged bribery case involving a Nigerian gas plant is being investigated in several countries, including France, Nigeria, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The companies involved in the natural gas project and the alleged bribery include Halliburton; Total of France; and Italy’s Eni. The U.S. Justice Department led the probe into Halliburton’s role, and officials have reported evidence of bribes paid. 69 Halliburton and Kellogg, Brown, and Root, Inc. (KBR) reached a $177 million settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2009 related to the case, and KBR paid a $402 million fine to settle the Justice Department charges.70 The EFCC brought charges against former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney in early December 2010 related to his tenure as chief executive of Halliburton, but later dropped them after the company agreed to pay $250 million in fines. 66 See, for example, “Nigerian Group Criticizes Choice of a New Corruption Chief,” VOA News, May 27, 2008. Ogbulafor maintains that the charges were politically motivated as part of an internal PDP power struggle. 68 “Nigeria to Blacklist Siemens After Bribery Scandal,” Reuters, December 5, 2007. 69 “The Gas Ghost Keeps Haunting,” Africa Confidential, May 9, 2008. 70 “Halliburton, KBR Paying $547 Million in Bribery Settlement,” Market Watch, February 11, 2009. 67 Congressional Research Service 14 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Social Issues and Security Concerns Islamic Sharia Law Nigeria is home to Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest Muslim population. Twelve of Nigeria’s states in the Sunni Muslim-dominated north of the country have adopted Islamic sharia law since 1999 to adjudicate criminal and civil matters for Muslims. 71 Non-sharia based common law and customary law courts adjudicate cases involving non-Muslims in these states, and sharia-based criminal law courts are elective for non-Muslims. In some states, the introduction of sharia proved to be a flashpoint between Muslims and Christians. The introduction of sharia has also resulted in much-publicized rulings, several of which have been criticized by human rights groups as well as by Nigerians in the southern and mostly Christian part of the country. The State Department reports that sharia “technically does not apply to non-Muslims in civil and criminal proceedings,” although observers acknowledge that Islamic mores are often enforced in public without regard for citizens’ religion. In some areas, state-funded vigilante groups known as hisbah patrol public areas and attempt to enforce sharia rulings. While some sharia courts have issued controversial stoning and amputation sentences, the U.S. State Department reports that none of the stoning sentences have been implemented. 72 In 2002, Amina Lawal was sentenced to death by stoning after a court in Katsina State found her guilty of adultery. In 2003, Ms. Lawal appealed her sentence to the state Appeals Court and won after the court ruled her conviction invalid. In another highly publicized case, a sharia court in Sokoto sentenced Safiya Hussaini to death for adultery in 2001. Ms. Hussaini appealed her sentence and was exonerated on the grounds that she was impregnated by her former husband and that the affair took place before sharia law was enacted. Despite such cases, many observers see the interpretation and implementation of Nigerian sharia as moderate in comparison to that of some other Islamic countries. Sectarian Violence in Nigeria’s Middle Belt In May 2009, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom recommended that Nigeria be classified as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedom violations. It is not currently designated as such by the Secretary of State. According to the commission, as many as 12,000 Nigerians have been killed since 1999 in sectarian violence, and the commissioners based the CPC recommendation on their belief that the country is tolerating this violence. According to their 2010 report, “Not a single criminal, Muslim or Christian, has been convicted and sentenced in Nigeria’s ten years of religious violence. Therein lies the problem. The Nigerian government and judicial system have so far been unwilling or unable to protect either side.”73 The report cites hundreds of recent deaths in sectarian violence in Jos, the capital of Plateau State in central Nigeria, which sits between the predominately Muslim north and Christian south. 71 These states are Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara. Nigerian law protects freedom of religion and permits states to establish courts based on common law or customary law systems. 72 As of December 2009, only one amputation sentence had been carried out, involving a victim who refused to appeal his conviction, according to the U.S. State Department, “Nigeria,” 2009 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. 73 U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, Annual Report 2010, May 2010. Congressional Research Service 15 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Violence between communities in this “Middle Belt” in the past decade reflects tensions that are not only religious, but also ethnic, and which are exacerbated by some local politicians. These tensions stem from a competition over resources—land, education, government jobs—between ethnic groups classified as settlers or “indigene” (original inhabitants of the state), a designation that conveys political and economic benefits. In Jos, the mostly Christian Berom are considered indigene, and the predominately Muslim Hausa-Fulani, who were traditionally nomadic and pastoralist, are not. According to Human Rights Watch, over 1,000 were killed in inter-communal fighting and targeted killings in Plateau State in 2010.74 The State Department, in its November 2010 Religious Freedom report, found that “the government generally respected religious freedom in practice, although local political actors stoked sectarian violence with impunity, occasionally using religion as a catalyst, especially in the Middle Belt region.” The report states that the hostility between Christians and Muslims “increased and involved the targeting of religious symbols and spaces” in 2010, and that the sectarian violence in parts of the country “heightened tensions between religious groups, even in parts of the country without violence.” The death toll from sectarian clashes in Nigeria in the last decade has been high, although exact figures are unavailable. By some estimates, over 8,000 were killed in clashes between 1999 and 2002.75 In Plateau State alone, as many as 3,800 have been killed in the past decade. 76 Among the more recent outbreaks of violence, disputed local elections spurred unrest in November 2008 that may have resulted in as many as 700 deaths. Violence in Jos and surrounding villages broke out again in early 2010, displacing an estimated 18,000 and resulting in 300-500 deaths in January and several hundred in March. In response, the Nigerian government established a special task force composed of both military and police in May 2010 to restore stability in the state. 77 The latest round of clashes were sparked by bombings in Christian areas of Jos on December 24 that killed 80. Revenge attacks by both sides have followed, and the Muslim community has called for the ouster of the current governor, whom they view as ignoring the violence. Boko Haram and Militant Islam in Nigeria In July 2009, religious clashes erupted in the northern states of Bauchi, Borno, and Yobe, reportedly resulting in at least 700 deaths and the displacement of several thousand. The clashes originated in Bauchi state between police and a Muslim sect, Boko Haram (“Western education is forbidden”), also known as the “Nigerian Taliban,” which aims to overthrow the government and impose sharia throughout the country. Alleged attempts by militants to storm police stations and other government buildings led to rioting and street battles with security forces. The group’s leader, Mohammed Yusuf, was killed by police in the northern city of Maiduguri. Some contend that his death was an extrajudicial killing, a charge that the police deny (see “Abuses by Security Forces” below). 78 Following the clashes, local religious and traditional leaders announced plans to establish a preaching board composed of Islamic leaders and scholars to vet clerics. Violence 74 HRW, “Nigeria: New Wave of Violence Leaves 200 Dead,” January 27, 2011. The report stated than in addition to the more than 1,000 deaths in 2010, over 200 were killed between December 24 and late January 2011. 75 ICG, “Nigeria: Want in the Midst of Plenty,” Africa Report No. 113, July 19, 2006. 76 HRW, Nigeria: New Wave of Violence Leaves 200 Dead,” Ibid. 77 The task force has a website: http://www.specialtaskforceonplateaustate.gov.ng. 78 “Islamic Death ‘Good for Nigeria’,” BBC, July 31, 2009. Congressional Research Service 16 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress between security forces and members of another Islamic sect reported to hold beliefs similar to those of Boko Haram in Bauchi state in late December 2009 resulted in over 40 deaths.79 Boko Haram appears to have reemerged, claiming responsibility in September 2010 for a major prison raid in Bauchi that resulted in 700 prisoners being freed, including a number of Boko Haram members. The group has also claimed responsibility for the January 2011 assassination of a gubernatorial candidate in the state, and has staged attacks on public buildings and police stations. Its current size and strength are unknown. Boko Haram currently appears to pose more of a threat to local stability than to the country as a whole. Nevertheless, there are concerns that the group may seek to align itself with more developed violent Islamist groups. One of its purported leaders has expressed respect for Al Qaeda (AQ) and Osama Bin Laden, and in February 2010 the leader of the regional AQ affiliate Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) publicly offered the group assistance.80 The international media focused on concerns regarding the possible radicalization of Nigerian Muslims following the attempted terrorist attack on an American airliner by a Nigerian passenger, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, on December 25, 2009. According to reports, Abdulmutallab, son of a respected Nigerian banker and former government minister, became “radicalized” while living abroad, most recently in Yemen, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claims to have sponsored his attempt to detonate an explosive device while onboard a flight bound from Amsterdam to Detroit. Abdulmutallab’s father reported concerns about his son’s radicalization to the U.S. embassy and others in November 2009. The attempted attack, allegedly scheduled to coincide with Christmas Day, raised questions regarding airport security in both the Netherlands and Nigeria, where Abdulmutallab’s journey began. Both countries began using full body scanners in their international airports in 2010. The attempt also led to increased screening measures at airports around the world. In January 2010, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that passengers flying to the United States who are citizens of 14 countries deemed to be either “state sponsors of terrorism” or “countries of interest” would be subject to additional screening, including compulsory “pat-downs.” Nigeria was among five African countries, including Algeria, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia, included in the new regulation, and the Nigerian government protested the rule as discriminatory.81 In April 2010, DHS announced new security measures for screening all passengers on international flights to the United States, superseding the regulations that specifically targeted Nigerians for further screening.82 Abdulmutallab’s actions are considered by most to be an isolated incident, and many observers stress that, by all accounts, Abdulmutallab’s radicalization and training took place outside Nigeria. Nevertheless, the expansion of conservative Sunni Islamist movements and clashes between security forces and Islamist sects in northern Nigeria have raised concerns among some observers and officials that other Nigerians may be susceptible to recruitment by Al Qaeda or other groups hoping to use violence against government or civilian targets in Nigeria or abroad. 79 “Death Toll From Nigeria Clashes Rises to 40 – Red Cross,” Reuters, December 30, 2009. “Fertile Ground: The Potential for Jihad in Nigeria,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, September 2010. 81 “Nigeria Criticizes ‘Unfair’ US Air Passenger Screening,” BBC, January 4, 2010. 82 DHS, “Secretary Napolitano Announces New Measures to Strengthen Aviation Security,” April 2, 2010. 80 Congressional Research Service 17 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Conflict in the Niger Delta Background of the Struggle Oil from the southern Niger Delta region has accounted for over 75% of the country’s oil production since the 1970s, and yet the area’s political history remains one of conflict and marginalization. The Delta is home to an estimated 31 million people. Among them are the Ogoni, an ethnic minority whose members have received international attention for their efforts to highlight the extensive environmental damage done by oil extraction in the region. In 1994, author and activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, president of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP), and 14 others were accused of involvement in the murder of four prominent Ogoni politicians. They pled not guilty, but nine, including Saro-Wiwa, were convicted and sentenced to death in 1995 by the Ogoni Civil Disturbances Special Tribunal. The executions sparked international outrage against the regime of dictator Sani Abacha, who was accused of extensive human rights abuses. The United States recalled its ambassador and pushed for the U.N. General Assembly to condemn Nigeria’s action. In 2009, Shell established a trust fund to benefit the Ogoni people, part of a $15.5 million settlement in a New York court case related to the 1995 executions. The company maintains that it played no role in the executions or other abuses. Criminality and Violence Nigeria’s oil wealth has been a source of continuing political tension, protest, and criminality in the Delta, where most of the country’s oil presently originates. The conflict has been linked to the vandalism of oil infrastructures; massive, systemic production theft known as “oil bunkering,” often abetted by state officials; protests over widespread environmental damage caused by oil operations; hostage taking; and public insecurity and communal violence. Several thousand people have been killed in pipeline explosions in southeast Nigeria since the late 1990s; the largest single toll from an explosion was approximately 1,000 in October of 1998. These explosions are triggered when people siphon off oil from holes punched in the above-ground pipeline for personal use, resulting in a reported loss of some 100,000 barrels of oil per day. In 1998, militants from the Delta’s largest ethnic group, the Ijaw, initiated “Operation Climate Change,” triggering violent conflict between the Ijaw and the Nigerian military and disrupting oil production in the region. Threats of an “all out war” against the government and the oil companies by Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, one of the leaders of that group, reportedly played a role in the then-unprecedented rise in the world price of oil above $50 a barrel in 2004.83 The threat was later called off after negotiations with the government. A new rebel movement, the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPVF), led by Dokubo-Asari, emerged in 2004, launching a series of attacks against government forces and threatening to attack foreign oil workers. The NDPVF demanded autonomy for the region and a share of oil revenues. An estimated 500 people were reportedly killed in the ensuing violence, according to Amnesty International, though the Nigerian government disputes this figure. Dokubo-Asari was arrested in September 2005 and charged with plotting to overthrow the government. He was released on bail in June 2007, allegedly because of his failing health, and upon his release he reportedly denounced the practice of hostage-taking in the region and subsequently assisted in the government’s negotiations with militants.84 83 84 “Pumping Up the Oil Price; the Price of Oil,” The Economist, October 1, 2004. “Freed Militant Opposes Kidnappings,” This Day, June 17, 2007. Congressional Research Service 18 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress In November 2005, the Nigerian army deployed additional troops to the oil-rich Bayelsa State after lawmakers began impeachment proceedings against State Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. British authorities had charged Alamieyeseigha, while visiting in London months prior, with money laundering. The former governor, who returned to Nigeria, was found guilty of money laundering and embezzlement in 2007. He was later released by President Yar’Adua on a plea bargain to help advance peace talks. The British government has returned over $2 million in assets allegedly stolen by Alamieyeseigha to Nigerian authorities. Conflict between the Delta’s militants and the Nigerian military escalated after early 2006, and the kidnapping of foreign oil workers increased exponentially. A new rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), emerged in late 2005, using kidnappings to bring international attention to its cause and to demand that the government release various regional figures, including Dokubu-Asari and Alamieyeseigha. Media reports suggest over 300 foreigners were kidnapped between 2006 and 2009, including several American citizens. Attacks on oil facilities by militant groups like the MEND have periodically cut Nigeria’s oil production by as much as 25%, and analysts partially credit supply disruptions in Nigeria with periodically raising the world price of oil. 85 According to the State Department’s Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, “If Nigeria was to produce oil at capacity, it would play a major role in helping to lower and stabilize world oil prices.”86 Nigeria’s deep-water production has proven vulnerable to militant attacks as well, as evidenced by attacks on Shell’s offshore Bongo platform, and the threat of sea piracy is high. According to some estimates, up to 10% of Nigeria’s oil is stolen every year, and some experts suggest that the heightened violence and criminality in the Delta has been used to fund local political campaigns.87 From 2007 through mid-2009, militant activity in the Delta was punctuated with periodic ceasefires and negotiations with the government. In June 2007, MEND declared a one-month truce, declaring it would cease kidnappings and attacks on oil facilities during that period in exchange for dialogue with the Yar’Adua government. As part of the truce, the group released several hostages taken from a Chevron facility, including at least one American. 88 The NDPVF extended a similar 90-day truce offer a week later, and groups represented under the so-called Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC) also declared a temporary ceasefire. Other smaller militant groups remained active. In July 2007 the truce unraveled, and in August MEND announced that it would resume attacks on oil installations. Gang violence in Port Harcourt, the region’s main city, escalated into running street battles until government troops imposed a curfew on the city. Selfdescribed MEND spokesman Henry Okah was arrested in Angola in September 2007 on suspicion of arms-trafficking. In December 2007, the Bayelsa state government announced the signing of a peace agreement with the state’s militant groups, although MEND rejected the truce, declaring it would increase its attacks until Okah, who was extradited to Nigeria in February 2008, was released. Street clashes erupted again in Port Harcourt in February (random violence in 85 See, for example, “Oil Steady Over 70 USD as Concerns about US Gasoline Supply, Nigeria Continue,” AFX News Limited, May 22, 2007, and “Assault at Gas Pumps Related to Attacks on Nigerian Pipelines,” CNN, May 23, 2008. 86 David L. Goldwyn, testimony before the Senate Committee on ForeignRelations’ Subcommittee on African Affairs, Washington, D.C., September 24, 2008. 87 Human Rights Watch, Criminal Politics: Violence, “Godfathers” and Corruption in Nigeria, Vol. 19, No. 16(A), October 2007. 88 “Nigerian Militants Free Six Hostages, Suspend Attacks for a Month,” Agence France Presse, June 2, 2007. Congressional Research Service 19 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress the city has continued sporadically). MEND declared another cessation of hostilities in mid-2008, but it suspended the ceasefire in January 2009. Nigeria’s Joint Task Force (JTF), a special combined military and police unit established in 2004 to restore order in the Delta, launched a new offensive against militants in May 2009. Fighting between security forces and militants, combined with JTF air and land strikes against militant camps, displaced thousands, according to Amnesty International.89 Acts of sabotage by the MEND and other militant groups increased in early 2009, cutting oil production by approximately 273,000 barrels per day. Amnesty Offer for Delta Militants In June 2009, President Yar’Adua extended an offer of amnesty to Delta militants; those who surrendered their weapons, renounced violence, and accepted rehabilitation by October of that year would be granted a presidential pardon, along with cash and job training. Within days, five militant groups had announced their intention to accept amnesty. MEND initially rejected the president’s gesture, but days after jailed MEND leader Henry Okah was pardoned and freed, in July, the group announced a 60-day ceasefire. MEND has not collectively accepted the amnesty offer, but several of its purported leaders have. According to Nigerian government estimates, 15,260 “militants” accepted the amnesty and turned in weapons by the October 2009 deadline; the government ultimately aims to disarm 20,000.90 As acting president, Goodluck Jonathan approved an initiative to spend $180 million on skills centers in the Delta, a key pledge in the second phase of Yar’Adua’s amnesty and reconciliation plan, which focuses on the rehabilitation of militants. The federal government’s ability to deliver on promised infrastructure improvements and job creation will be critical to addressing regional grievances. Oil output has increased in the wake of the amnesty offer, but observers warn that unless the root causes of the conflict are addressed, further violence will follow. 91 MEND attacks appear to be on the rise again. MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo, declaring that President Jonathan has demonstrated that he is unwilling to address the issues of the Delta, has claimed responsibility for several attacks on oil facilities and recent bombings, including explosions in Abuja on October 1, 2010, during celebrations marking Nigeria’s Independence Day, that left 12 dead. Gbomo claims that MEND has issued warnings to Nigerian officials prior to the bombings to avoid loss of life. MEND’s identity and composition has changed since it first emerged. Various militant groups in the Niger Delta have claimed actions under the name of MEND, and analysts suggest that it is now an umbrella group with a decentralized structure. Several high-profile militant commanders, including Soboma George, Ateke Tom, and Government Ektemupolo (alias Tompolo), who were rumored to be among MEND’s senior leadership, accepted the amnesty, raising questions about the group’s current cohesiveness.92 89 Amnesty International, “Hundreds Feared Dead and Thousands Trapped in Niger Delta Fighting,” May 22, 2009. “On the MEND: The Politics of Surrender in Nigeria,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, December 2009. 91 “In Niger Delta, Uneasy Peace as Rebel Disarmament Dates Nears,” Washington Post, July 27, 2009. 92 Soboma George was shot and killed in August 2010, reportedly by men he had hired to kill two politicians in the region. 90 Congressional Research Service 20 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Efforts to Address Environmental and Development Challenges Oil production in the Delta has caused major damage to the area’s fragile riverine ecosystem, and ultimately to the livelihoods of its inhabitants.93 Reports on the amount of crude leaked into the Delta’s fragile ecosystem vary significantly and there is no accurate measure, but millions of barrels of oil are believed to have been spilled since oil production began in Nigeria.94 Gas flares, which burn unwanted natural gas when drilling for oil, have plagued the Delta with acid rain and air pollution. This pollution has severely limited locals’ access to clean water, and has largely destroyed the fishing stocks the majority of Delta inhabitants depended on to make a living.95 In 2006, Shell Oil, which has the largest production capacity of the oil companies in Nigeria, was ordered by a Nigerian federal court to pay $1.5 billion to compensate local communities for environmental damage. President Yar’Adua announced in 2008 that Shell would be replaced by another company in the oil fields of Ogoniland.96 In 2010, a Dutch court began hearing a case against Shell related to a massive spill that occurred in the Delta in 2005. The Dutch parliament held a hearing on Shell’s role in Delta oil spills in January 2011. Under President Yar’Adua, the government took several important initial steps to engage the Delta’s disaffected communities, efforts that activists hope the Nigerian government will expand. An unprecedented 20% of Yar’Adua’s first federal budget proposal, for 2008, was allocated for security and development projects in the Delta, although activists expressed concern that the amount allocated for security far outweighed funds for development.97 A supplemental 2009 budget passed in November 2009 included more than $750 million for “post-amnesty intervention.” The 2010 budget included some $1.2 billion for “post-amnesty development” projects in the region, targeting transport, education, and health infrastructure. Concerns remain regarding the government’s ability to spend the funds effectively. Most observers agree that the crisis in the Delta must ultimately be solved politically, rather than militarily, but there is considerable disagreement on the details of such a solution. The current federal system provides states with a 13% share of local revenues (predominately from oil sales). Groups like MEND argue that the states should receive a 50% share, as was stipulated in the 1960 constitution. A technical committee nominated by President Yar’Adua to identify policies to stimulate development and improve security in the Delta region issued a report in December 2008. In the report, the committee advocated raising the share of oil revenues allocated to the oilproducing states to 25%. Some analysts suggest that corruption within the state governments is so high that the local populations would see little improvement even if the state share were raised. Some of the oil-producing states have reported revenues of $1 billion per year but have dismal records of development or service delivery. 98 Other analysts question what effect a change in revenue allocation might have on the northern states, several of which have lower development 93 Amnesty International, Petroleum, Pollution, and Poverty in the Niger Delta, June 2009. Amnesty International, Petroleum, Pollution, and Poverty in the Niger Delta, Ibid.; UNDP, Niger Delta Human Development Report, 2006; Jonathan Brown, “Niger Delta Bears Brunt After 50 Years of Oil Spills,” The Independent (London), October 26, 2006; Popken, Ben, “BP Gulf-Sized Spilling Occurs in Nigeria Annually, but Nobody Cares,” The Consumerist.com, June 15, 2010. 95 ICG, “Fueling the Niger Delta Crisis,” Africa Report No. 118, September 28, 2006. 96 “Nigeria’s Removal of Shell Hailed,” BBC News, June 5, 2008. 97 “Nigeria’s Pledge to Increase Niger Delta Spending Elicits Skeptical Response,” VOA News, November 11, 2007. 98 “Blood and Oil,” The Economist, March 15, 2007. 94 Congressional Research Service 21 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress indicators than those in the Delta. In late 2009, President Yar’Adua proposed transferring 10% of the revenues from the government’s oil and gas joint ventures to local Delta communities. In September 2008, President Yar’Adua created a new cabinet-level Ministry for Niger Delta Affairs. The position was intended to build on development plans started under the Obasanjo Administration in 2007 under the auspices of the Niger Delta Development Corporation (NDDC), established in 2000 to improve social and environmental conditions in the Delta. Improvements in infrastructure and education were identified as areas of major focus for Obasanjo’s 15-year, $50 billion plan.99 In his first year in office, President Yar’Adua doubled the budget for the NNDC, to $566 million. Some observers have raised concerns that the ministry’s programs and those of the NDDC, which is intended to be a part of the ministry, may be duplicative. Some analysts suggest that given the level of corruption endemic in the Delta, the international community should work with the Nigerian government to establish a new development fund that would have independent oversight. New opportunities for foreign investment in the Delta could also contribute to improvements in the region, although unrest may deter investors. Effects on the Oil Industry and the World Market Nigeria has an estimated oil production capacity of 3 million barrels per day (bpd), but output has not met capacity.100 Instability, criminality, and oil leaks in the Delta have cut output by one-fifth since 2006. Nigeria’s production averaged 2.5 million bpd in 2010. By comparison, Saudi Arabia produces an estimated 10.1 million bpd, Iran 4.3 million bpd, and Venezuela 2.4 million bpd.101 In 2005, a group of former senior U.S. national security officials convened a working group to develop a possible U.S. response to a simulated world oil crisis.102 Under the scenario given to the participants, civil unrest in northern Nigeria required the Nigerian government to move troops from the unstable Niger Delta region to quell violence in the north. Unprotected, oil companies in the Delta ceased production, and the country’s contribution to the world oil market was reduced by 800,000 bpd for an extended period. Combined with an unseasonably cold winter and hypothetical terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, oil prices rose to $120 per barrel and U.S. gasoline prices at the pump rose to $4.74 per gallon, triggering a recession and potential job losses of up to 2 million. In reality, even the threat of coordinated militant attacks against oil targets in the Delta can affect the price of oil on the world market. A longer and more sustained disruption of Nigeria’s oil supply, particularly if combined with the disruption of another major supplier’s product, could have a significant impact on the world economy. In addition to its oil reserves, Nigeria has the eighth-largest natural gas reserves in the world, but to date they have provided little benefit to the Nigerian economy. The gas reserves, also predominantly located in the Delta region, are estimated at over 185 trillion cubic feet. The government had pledged to increase gas exports to 50% of oil revenues by 2010, but many of Nigeria’s fields currently lack the infrastructure to produce natural gas and would require significant investment to meet that goal. The government has repeatedly set deadlines for oil 99 “Nigeria Launches New Development Plan for Niger Delta,” Voice of America, March 27, 2007, and “New Hope for Old ‘Master Plan’ on Niger Delta,” IRIN, November 19, 2007. 100 Oil production dropped from 2.13 million bpd in 2007 to 1.95 million bpd in 2008, but increased from an estimated 1.6 million bpd in July 2009, before the ceasefire, to 2 million bpd by late 2009. EIU, “Nigeria,” Country Reports. 101 Production figures for 2010 acquired from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration. 102 For more information on the exercise, known as “Oil Shockwave,” see http://www.secureenergy.org/reports/ oil_shock_report_master.pdf. Congressional Research Service 22 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress companies to stop flaring gas at oil wells, estimated at up to 40% of annual production, but significant flaring continues. 103 In March 2011, President Jonathan announced a series of new agreements to develop gas processing facilities as part of a “gas revolution” designed to create new jobs and revenues and to end flaring. 104 Abuses by Security Forces Nigerian security forces, particularly the police, have been accused of serious human rights abuses, and activists suggest that the government has done little to address issues of impunity and corruption within the Nigerian Police Force. In 2007, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture reported that “torture is an intrinsic part of how law enforcement services operate within the country,” and called on the Nigerian government to criminalize the practice.105 The State Department’s annual human rights reports on Nigeria document numerous instances of “politically motivated and extrajudicial killings by security forces, including summary executions … torture, rape and other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment of prisoners, detainees, and criminal suspects,” and a variety of other offenses. Its 2009 report noted serious abuses by both police and soldiers related to the July 2009 Boko Haram uprising and referenced “credible media reports” claiming that police executed the group’s leader. Other recent reports on abuses include Arbitrary Killings by Security Forces, produced by Human Rights Watch; Killing at Will: Extrajudicial Executions and Other Unlawful Killings by the Police in Nigeria, by Amnesty International; and Criminal Force: Torture, Abuse, and Extrajudicial Killings by the Nigerian Police Force, by the Open Society Justice Initiative and the Network of Police Reform in Nigeria. Nigerian officials have acknowledged some abuses, and in early 2010 the country’s police minister called the situation “condemnable and unacceptable.”106 Nigeria’s prison system has also drawn criticism; a 2008 Amnesty International report alleged that at least 65% of the inmates had never been convicted of a crime, and that some awaited trial for up to 10 years.107 HIV/AIDS Nigeria’s HIV/AIDS prevalence rate of 3.6% is relatively small in comparison to some Southern African nations with adult seropositivity rates of over 20%. However, the West African nation comprises nearly one-tenth of the world’s HIV/AIDS infected persons with 3.3 million infected people, the largest HIV-positive population in the world after South Africa. Nigeria’s population is expected to double by the year 2025, which is likely to multiply the spread of HIV. In addition to the devastation HIV/AIDS continues to cause among Nigeria’s adult population, over 40% of the current population is under the age of 15. With almost a third of primary-school-aged children not enrolled in school and the large number of HIV/AIDS-infected adults, Nigeria faces serious challenges and significant obstacles in the education and health care sectors. 103 “Nigeria Gas Profits ‘Up in Smoke’,” BBC, January 13, 2009. “Jonathan Sets Agenda for Ending Gas Flaring,” BusinessDay, March 25, 2011. 105 United Nations Press Release, “Special Rapporteur on Torture Concludes Visit to Nigeria,” March 12, 2007. 106 “Nigeria Condemns Police ‘Killing’,” BBC, March 5, 2010. 107 Amnesty International, “Nigeria: Criminal Justice System Utterly Failing Nigerian People; Majority of Inmates Not Convicted of Any Crime,” February 26, 2008. 104 Congressional Research Service 23 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress International Relations Since the 1990s, Nigeria has emerged as an important player in regional and international affairs. Nigeria is one of 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and is a key member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The government has helped to resolve political disputes in Togo, Mauritania, and Liberia. Nigeria has also played a leading role in efforts to resolve the political crisis in Cote d’Ivoire, where it has previously acted as a mediator. The government has been critical of the international community for “contradictions” in its reaction to the current crises in Cote d’Ivoire and Libya.108 Nigeria has also mediated between the government of Sudan and the Darfur rebels. Nigerian troops have played a vital role in peacekeeping operations in Sierra Leone and Liberia, and are currently deployed to missions in Liberia and Sudan. Nigerian police, military observers, and experts are also deployed in U.N. missions in Cote d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Liberia, Sudan, Timor-Leste, and Western Sahara. The United States is the top destination for Nigerian exports, followed by India, Brazil, Spain and France. China is the lead source for Nigerian imports, followed by the United States, the Netherlands, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. 109 Issues for Congress Administration Policy on Nigeria After a period of strained relations in the 1990s, U.S.-Nigeria relations steadily improved under the administration of former President Obasanjo, and they have remained strong under Presidents Yar’Adua and Jonathan. The Bush Administration praised the Nigerian government’s improved budget practices, banking sector reform, and efforts to eliminate the country’s foreign debt, although it remained critical of the country’s human rights record and questioned its commitment to ensuring free and fair elections. President George W. Bush visited the country in 2003, and First Lady Laura Bush visited Nigeria in 2006. Following the 2007 elections, though, the Bush Administration expressed concern with what the State Department called “a flawed election, and in some instances, deeply flawed.”110 Nevertheless, the State Department stressed the need to “engage” rather than isolate the country in order to “nurture Nigeria’s fragile democracy,” and President Bush met Yar’Adua at the White House later that year.111 President Barack Obama’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Johnnie Carson, has referred to Nigeria as “probably the most important country in Sub-Saharan Africa.”112 President Obama has reiterated the importance of the U.S.-Nigeria relationship. He formally acknowledged the country’s role as a regional leader during a meeting with then-Acting President Goodluck Jonathan at the White House in April 2010. Hillary Rodham Clinton visited Nigeria in August 108 “Nigeria Lashes at World’s Focus on Libya While I. Coast Burns,” AFP, March 22, 2011. CIA, “Nigeria”, The World Factbook, March 8, 2011. 110 “Governing Party Wins in Nigeria, but Many Claim Fraud,” New York Times, April 23, 2007. 109 111 Testimony of Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer before the House Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, June 7, 2007. 112 U.S. Department of State, “Remarks by Ambassador Carson on Secretary Clinton’s Africa Trip,” July 30, 2009. Congressional Research Service 24 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress 2009 on her first visit to the continent as Secretary of State; Nigeria was one of seven African countries on her itinerary. Clinton’s discussions in Nigeria focused on regional security, democracy, corruption, and economic development. In her remarks during the visit, she stressed the need for electoral reform and expressed support for the government’s political approach toward resolving the conflict in the Niger Delta.113 The United States and Nigeria agreed in January 2010 to establish a binational commission on areas of mutual concern, as called for by Members of the House of Representatives in H.R. 2410, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 2010 and 2011. The first meetings of the commission, formally established in April following then-Acting President Jonathan’s participation in the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, were held in late May 2010. The commission is composed of four working groups that meet regularly: Good Governance, Transparency, and Integrity; Energy and Investment; Food Security and Agriculture; and Niger Delta and Regional Security Cooperation. U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Maritime Security Issues Nigeria is an important trading partner for the United States and is the largest beneficiary of U.S. investment on the continent. The country is eligible for trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA); AGOA-eligible exports account for over 90% of its exports to the United States, which totaled over $30 billion in 2010. Nigeria vies with Venezuela to be the United States’ fourth-largest source of imported oil (behind Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia), depending on how much of its oil production is shut-in in any given month. U.S. imports of Nigerian crude account for over 40% of the country’s total oil exports, making the United States Nigeria’s largest trading partner. U.S. energy companies may face increasing competition for rights to the country’s energy resources; China, for example, has offered Nigeria loans for infrastructure projects in exchange for oil exploration rights. The NNPC signed an agreement with Russia’s Gazprom in 2009 to create a joint venture for oil and gas exploration. Nigeria has also signed an agreement with Algeria and Niger to build a 2,500-mile pipeline across their territories to deliver gas to Europe. Nigeria exports natural gas to neighboring countries through the new West Africa Gas Pipeline. Gulf of Guinea crude is prized on the world market for its low sulphur content, and Nigeria’s proximity to the United States relative to that of Middle East oil-producing countries makes its oil particularly attractive to U.S. interests. In 2005, the United States, Nigeria, and other interested partners initiated the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security Strategy, a forum through which participants would work to address challenges to oil production. Other regional and international initiatives focused on maritime security in the Gulf have followed. 114 Nigeria’s waters have been named among the most dangerous in the world; the country ranked first in global pirate attacks until it was overtaken by Somalia in 2008, according to the International Maritime Bureau. Nigeria is also considered a growing transshipment point for narcotics trafficking, and several Nigerian criminal organizations have been implicated in the trade. 115 The U.S. Navy has increased its operations in the Gulf of Guinea in recent years to enhance security in the region and in 2007 launched a new initiative, the African Partnership Station (APS).116 Successive APS deployments 113 U.S. Department of State, “Remarks With Nigerian Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe,” August 12, 2009. For further information on maritime and port security issues in the region, see, e.g., the Atlantic Council, Advancing U.S., African, and Global Interests: Security and Stability in the West African Maritime Domain, November 30, 2010. 115 CRS Report R40838, Illegal Drug Trade in Africa: Trends and U.S. Policy, by Liana Sun Wyler and Nicolas Cook. 116 Under APS, U.S. and partner naval ships deploy to the region for several months to serve as a continuing sea base of operations and a “floating schoolhouse” to provide assistance and training to the Gulf nations. Training focuses on (continued...) 114 Congressional Research Service 25 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress have included port visits to Nigeria and joint exercises between U.S., Nigerian, European, and other regional navies. Nigerian military personnel have also served onboard as embarked trainees, and a Nigerian naval captain has served as the APS Deputy Commander. The Department of Defense’s newest regional combatant command, Africa Command (AFRICOM), has maintained this increased focus on maritime security in the region. 117 Nigeria’s Role in Regional Stability Nigeria plays a significant role in peace and stability operations across Africa. Former President Obasanjo reportedly played a critical role in building consensus on the continent for cooperation with U.S. counter-terrorism efforts. The Nigerian parliament adopted new anti-terrorism legislation in February 2011 after a series of bombings in the country. The United States provides the country with military training with an emphasis on professionalization and respect for human rights and civilian authority through a range of security assistance programs, including those focused on enhancing its peacekeeping capabilities. Nigeria is also a participant in the State Department’s Trans Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a U.S. interagency effort that aims to increase border protection and regional counter-terrorism capabilities. The State Department has established 10 “American Corners” to share information on American culture and values with Nigerians. U.S. Assistance to Nigeria The United States is the largest bilateral donor in Nigeria, providing over $614 million in foreign aid to the country in FY2010. Democratic governance, agriculture and economic reform, improved education and health services, professionalization and reform of the security services, and HIV/AIDS have been the main focus for U.S. assistance programs in recent years. Nigeria is a focus country under the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), and the Obama Administration’s new Feed the Future (FTF) Initiative. The State Department’s FY2012 budget request, which totals $660.5 million, includes approximately $588 million (89% of the total) in funding for HIV/AIDS and related health programs. In 2008, the State Department’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) found that: Exceptionally high funding levels for HIV/AIDS create a clear imbalance in the embassy program mix and present a skewed picture of U.S. policy priorities. In addition, this level of HIV/AIDS funding has unintended consequences for Nigeria’s broader health infrastructure, monopolizing the country’s supplies of medical goods and services, including the qualified health professionals needed to meet Nigeria’s other health needs.118 Although AIDS-related interventions have composed the majority of health funding for Nigeria, the funds also target other health concerns, including maternal and child health, malaria, and (...continued) maritime domain awareness and law enforcement, port facilities management and security, seamanship/navigation, search and rescue, leadership, logistics, civil engineering, humanitarian assistance and disaster response. 117 For more information on AFRICOM and Nigeria’s response to the command’s creation, see CRS Report RL34003, Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa, by Lauren Ploch. 118 U.S. Department of State Office of the Inspector General, Report on Inspection: Embassy Abuja and Consulate General Lagos, Nigeria, Report Number ISP-I-08-25A, July 2008. Congressional Research Service 26 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress tuberculosis. U.S. health assistance focused on tuberculosis aims to double the case detection rate and halve Nigeria’s incidence in the next decade. In addition to health programs, the State Department’s FY2012 foreign assistance request for Nigeria includes funding for an array of programs focused on economic growth, education, and good governance. U.S. economic and agriculture assistance supports programs that will increase productivity and build trade and investment capacity. Such assistance also aims to address climate change, including through efforts to increase the production of clean energy and reduce gas flaring. As the request points out, one-third of Nigeria’s 30 million school-aged children are not enrolled in school, and the request includes over $15 million in basic education funding. The FY2012 request would further increase assistance for programs aimed at strengthening democratic governance in Nigeria, up from $9.5 million in FY2008, $16 million in FY2009, and $21 million in FY2010, to over $27 million for the upcoming fiscal year. USAID has provided over $14 million to support the 2011 elections, which includes funding for technical assistance provided by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) to increase INEC capacity. The Administration has requested funding in FY2012 for new conflict mitigation programs to address extremism in the north and conflict in the Niger Delta. USAID has paired with Chevron on a four-year, $50 million program (of which USAID is contributing half) to improve agricultural development as well as civil society and governance capacity in the Delta. USAID is implementing several “flagship” programs designed to concentrate resources and achieve maximum impact. They are focused on two northern Nigerian states: Bauchi and Sokoto (within Nigeria, human development indicators are lowest in the north). USAID’s flagship education project, the Northern Education Initiative (NEI), is being implemented in the two focus states to strengthen state and local government systems for the delivery of education services. USAID’s flagship peace and democratic governance project in the two focus states is known as Leadership, Empowerment, Advocacy and Development (LEAD). The project is designed to build partnerships between state and local governments, civil society, and the private sector to improve governance, accountability, and service delivery. A third flagship program, the five-year, $85 million Targeted States High Impact Project (TSHIP) is being implemented in the focus states to reduce maternal and child deaths. The project aims to build the states’ health systems to effectively deliver primary health care, and to support overall improvement of the primary health care delivery system through capacity building and institutional strengthening. U.S. security assistance to Nigeria was suspended from FY2003 until 2006, when the State Department restarted a modest International Military Education and Training (IMET) program.119 Security cooperation has increased since then, and the State Department’s FY2012 security assistance request, which focuses on military professionalization, peacekeeping support and training, and land and maritime border security, includes $1 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and almost $1 million for IMET. Nigeria has also received maritime security assistance through the U.S. Navy’s Africa Partnership Station and the State Department’s African Coastal and Border Security (ACBS) program. 120 As an important troop contributor to peacekeeping missions, Nigeria continues to receive U.S. support through the African Contingency Operations 119 P.L. 109-102 restricted FY2006 FMF and IMET funding for Nigeria due to issues related to former Liberian President Charles Taylor. Those restrictions were lifted after Nigeria surrendered Taylor to the Special Court for Sierra Leone. 120 For more information on APS, see CRS Report RL34003, Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa, by Lauren Ploch. Congressional Research Service 27 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program. The country also participates in security cooperation activities with the California National Guard through the National Guard State Partnership Program. U.S. counterterrorism assistance to Nigeria includes programs coordinated through TSCTP. Nigeria has also received security assistance through DOD funds, including $2.2 million in “Section 1206” funding for the development of a counterterrorism infantry company and $6.2 million aimed at building the capacity of the country’s counterterrorism unit and its tactical communications interoperability.121 Nigeria also received coastal radar and communications training and equipment through regional Section 1206 programs. Recent Congressional Interest The United States Congress continues to monitor political developments in Nigeria. During the 111th Congress, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing “Examining the U.S.Nigeria Relationship in a Time of Transition.” The 110th Congress closely followed Nigeria’s 2007 elections. Days prior to those elections, Members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee publicly expressed “serious concern about the prospects for free, fair, and peaceful conduct” of the elections. Following the elections, Senator Russ Feingold issued a statement condemning electoral irregularities, saying “President Obasanjo’s leadership over the last eight years has been called into question by the failure of efforts to reform Nigeria’s electoral system and combat political corruption. The Administration should not legitimize this election as doing so would undermine our commitment to good governance and transparency, and to building strong democracies.”122 The House Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health subsequently held a hearing entitled “Nigeria at a Crossroads: Elections, Legitimacy, and a Way Forward.” Nigeria’s flawed elections also featured prominently in a July 2007 hearing on democracy in Africa by the Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs. Congress continues to monitor Nigeria’s energy sector and its role in world oil supplies, as well as humanitarian and human rights issues in the country. Congressional hearings have examined the attempted terrorist attack by a Nigerian citizen on a U.S. airliner in December 2009, raising concerns with the State Department’s visa process and with “systematic failures across the Intelligence Community (IC), which contributed to the failure to identify the threat.”123 The Director of National Intelligence, during February 2011 hearings by the House and Senate intelligence communities on worldwide threats, highlighted a range of security concerns in Nigeria in his testimony, including political and sectarian violence and militancy in the Niger Delta and the northeast, and suggesting that although the group Boko Haram appears focused on local issues, “it may be pursuing interests it shares with” a regional Al Qaeda affiliate, AQIM. Congressional attention to these and other issues is expected to continue in the 112th Congress. 121 For more information on DOD’s global train and equip or “Section 1206” authority, see CRS Report RS22855, Security Assistance Reform: “Section 1206” Background and Issues for Congress, by Nina M. Serafino. 122 See “Statement of U.S. Senator Russ Feingold on the Marred Nigerian Election,” April 23, 2007, at http://feingold.senate.gov. 123 Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, “Unclassified Executive Summary of the Committee Report on the Attempted Terrorist Attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253,” May 18, 2010. Congressional Research Service 28 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Figure 1. Map of Nigeria Congressional Research Service 29 Nigeria: Elections and Issues for Congress Author Contact Information Lauren Ploch Analyst in African Affairs lploch@crs.loc.gov, 7-7640 Congressional Research Service 30