Order Code RS22463
June 28, 2006
CRS Report for Congress
Received through the CRS Web
Federal Monthly Budget Totals
Philip D. Winters
Analyst in Government Finance
Government and Finance Division
Summary
The annual budget totals for the federal government obscure the variations in
receipts, outlays, and the deficit or surplus that occur monthly. The annual deficits of
the last four years (FY2001 through FY2005) were punctuated by monthly surpluses.
The growth in outlays over those same years were not steady when viewed monthly.
Receipts varied both annually and monthly. The monthly variations in receipts followed
a pattern based on the timing of federal tax collections. The often substantial monthly
changes in receipts produced almost all of the corresponding changes in monthly
surpluses or deficits.
This report contains historical data and will not be updated.
Monthly budget data have followed a fairly regular pattern year after year. Outlays
vary by relatively small amounts monthly. Between January 2001 and December 2005,
average monthly outlays remained between $150 billion and $200 billion.1 Over the same
period, actual monthly outlays ranged from a low of $125 billion in July 2001 to $220
billion in March 2005. In the somewhat extended period (October 2000 through May
2006) shown in
Figure 1, a new monthly high for outlays occurred in March 2006 at $250
billion, double the spending in July 2001. Over this extended period, spending has
trended upward.
Receipts show a more volatile pattern reflecting the intermittent pattern of federal
revenue collections. Receipts tend to be higher in January, April, June, September, and
December than in other months, generally reflecting payment timing requirements for
taxpayers. Five-year average monthly receipts varied from a low of slightly less than
$100 billion in February to a high of almost $260 billion in April . From October 2000
through May 2006, receipts ranged from a low of $85 billion in February 2004 to a high
of $332 billion in April 2001. Over this period, receipts (in dollars) have slowly trended
higher.
1 The average monthly budget data were created by summing each month’s data over four years
and dividing it by four to produce an average monthly amount. This was done for outlays,
receipts, and the deficit or surplus amounts for each month.
Congressional Research Service ˜
The Library of Congress
CRS-2
The monthly variability of receipts drives a reflected monthly variability in deficits
and surpluses. The federal government tends to run surpluses in the same months that
receipts tend to be large, January, April, June, September, and December. The average
monthly budget balance over the course of a year ranged from a deficit of $86 billion in
February to a surplus of $77 billion in April over the five calendar years 2001 through
2005. The actual monthly budget balances ranged from a deficit of $119 billion in
February 2006 to a surplus of $190 billion in April 2001.
Figure 1 contains receipts, outlays, and the deficit or surplus by month from October
2000 (the first month of fiscal year 2001) through the most recent data from the Treasury,
May 2006. In addition, the one fiscal year surplus and four fiscal year deficits are shown
in the figure. The variability of all three components of the budget totals is fairly obvious
in the figure. Although outlays vary within a relatively small range, they still bounce
around quite a bit month to month. The growth in outlays over time also reveals itself in
the figure (as one would expect), as the outlays in the more recent months are obviously
larger (in current dollars) than they were at the beginning of the period shown.2 The
higher monthly volatility of receipts makes eyeballing a directional trend more difficult,
but it has been upward (see footnote 2). As with receipts, the monthly up and down
nature of the surplus and deficit makes spotting an overall trend difficult. Over the period
shown, the trend has been toward smaller and less frequent monthly surpluses and larger
and more frequent monthly deficits.
Figure 2 shows the five-year (2001 through 2005, calendar years) averages for
receipts, outlays, and the deficit or surplus by month. January is shown at the beginning
and end of the graph (to more clearly indicate the changes from December to January).
As an example, the chart shows that for June, five-year average receipts were $206
billion, outlays averaged $181 billion for the five years, and, for that month, the surplus
averaged $25 billion. For February, the month that averages the smallest receipts, the
chart reveals that receipts averaged $97 billion, outlays averaged $183 billion, and the
deficit averaged $86 billion.
This figure displays the monthly patterns of federal receipts and spending (and the
deficit or surplus) that were difficult to discern in
Figure 1. As mentioned earlier, outlays
vary by month, but by relatively small amounts. Receipts vary by fairly large amounts
month to month, in a repetitive pattern that occurs from year to year (over the five years
covered in this report), reflecting the timing requirements of federal tax law. The monthly
variation in surplus or deficit totals generally follows the variation in monthly receipts,
since outlays are relatively steady throughout the year.
2 Other measures of outlays, as percentages of GDP or in constant (deflated) dollars also show
growth in outlays over this period. Receipts, on the other hand, are currently smaller both as a
percentage of GDP and in constant dollars than they were at the beginning of the period shown.
CRS-3
Figure 1. Monthly Budget Totals, October 2000 — May 2006
In B illio n s
$ 3 5 0
$ 3 0 0
An n u a l S u r p lu s
$ 2 5 0
$ 2 0 0
$ 1 5 0
$ 1 0 0
$ 1 2 6 b illio n
FY2 0 0 1
$ 5 0
$ 0
- $ 5 0
- $ 1 0 0
- $ 1 5 0
- $ 1 5 8 b illio n
- $ 2 0 0
FY2 0 0 2
An n u a l D e fic it s
- $ 2 5 0
- $ 3 0 0
R e c e ip ts
- $ 3 1 8 b illio n
FY2 0 0 5
- $ 3 5 0
O u tla y s
- $ 4 0 0
D e fic it( -) /S u r p lu s
- $ 3 7 8 b illio n
- $ 4 1 3 b illio n
FY2 0 0 3
FY2 0 0 4
- $ 4 5 0
O c t-
Ja n -
A p r -
Ju l-
O c t-
Ja n -
A p r -
Ju l-
O c t-
Ja n -
A p r -
Ju l-
O c t-
Ja n -
A p r -
Ju l-
O c t-
Ja n -
A p r -
Ju l-
O c t-
Ja n -
A p r -
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 6
CRS-4
Figure 2. Average Monthly Budget Total Over the Five Calendar Years 2001 Through 2005
In B illio n s
$ 3 0 0
R e c e ip ts
O u tla ys
D e fic it( -)/S u rp lu s
$ 2 6 0
$ 2 5 0
$ 2 0 6
$ 2 0 1
$ 2 0 3
$ 1 9 9
$ 1 9 9
$ 1 9 4
$ 1 9 1
$ 1 8 8
$ 2 0 0
$ 1 8 6
$ 1 8 3
$ 1 7 9
$ 1 7 3
$ 1 9 9
$ 1 8 3
$ 1 8 1
$ 1 7 2
$ 1 7 2
$ 1 6 8
$ 1 5 0
$ 1 3 0
$ 1 4 1
$ 1 3 1
$ 1 3 2
$ 1 2 7
$ 1 2 0
$ 1 0 0
$ 9 7
$ 7 7
$ 5 0
$ 3 3
$ 2 8
$ 2 8
$ 2 5
$ 4
$ 0
-$ 4 1
-$ 4 7
-$ 5 0
-$ 6 0
-$ 5 9
-$ 6 4
-$ 5 9
-$ 8 6
-$ 1 0 0
J a n
F e b
M a rc h
Ap ri l
M a y
J u n e
J u ly
Au g
S e p t
O c t
N o v
D e c
J a n