Paris Agreement: Nationally Determined Contributions Conditional on International Support—In Brief

October 28, 2024

Congressional Research Service

https://crsreports.congress.gov

R48248

Paris Agreement

Contents

The Paris Agreement (PA) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) .............................. 1

Conditional NDCs ..................................................................................................................... 2

Tables

Table 1. Conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Submitted to the

UNFCCC ...................................................................................................................................... 2

Contacts

Author Information .......................................................................................................................... 9

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The Paris Agreement (PA) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been the principal multilateral treaty for cooperation among nations on greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change since its adoption in 1992.¹ The Paris Agreement is the second internationally binding subsidiary agreement under the UNFCCC.² As of October 25, 2024, 195 Parties have ratified, accepted, or acceded to the PA, including the United States.³ The PA defines a collective, long-term objective of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2^oC [Celsius] above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5^oC above pre-industrial levels.”⁴ One key aspect of the PA is a single GHG mitigation framework. The PA establishes a process, with a ratchet mechanism in five-year increments, for all countries to set GHG emission mitigation pledges until the long-term goal is met. The PA refers to these periodic submissions as nationally determined contributions.⁵

NDCs are the primary vehicle through which Parties to the PA communicate contributions to achieving the agreement’s collective goals. NDCs reflect each country’s own national climate objectives and plans, including emission reduction goals, adaptation plans, and other elements. Under the terms of the PA, all NDCs must address greenhouse gas emissions reductions and all NDCs should list economy-wide absolute GHG emission reduction targets, with flexibility for developing countries to move over time toward such targets.⁶

Each Party that signed the PA was required to submit an Intended NDC at that time, and that document became its First NDC upon ratification of the PA. Parties are required to submit an NDC every five years, with the next due in 2025.⁷ This next round of NDCs are to cover the period to 2035, according to the Paris Agreement Rulebook finalized in 2021 at 26^th Conference of Parties (COP26) to the UNFCCC held in Glasgow, United Kingdom.⁸ Subsequent NDCs are to reflect a progression of contributions to collectively over time increase ambition.⁹ Article 4 of the PA states that

each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party’s then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.¹⁰

1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, New York, May 9, 1992, United Nations (U.N.) Treaty Collection, Chapter XXVII Environment, 7 (S. Treaty Doc. No. 102-38).

2 Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Paris, December 12, 2015, U.N. Treaty Collection, Chapter XXVII Environment, 7.d (U.S. Department of State, T.I.A.S. No. 16-1104).

3 “Paris Agreement – Status of Ratification,” UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of- ratification.

4 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Paris Agreement, Article 2, para 1(a).

5 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 3.

6 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 4.

7 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 9.

8 “COP26 Outcomes: Transparency and Reporting,” UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris- agreement/the-glasgow-climate-pact/cop26-outcomes-transparency-and-reporting.

9 Article 4 of the Paris Agreement uses the term “ambition” to describe countries’ emission reduction plans. The use of “ambition” throughout this report reflects this language and does not imply judgment by CRS.

10 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 3.

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Parties decided that those who submitted their First NDCs without quantifiable 2030 emission targets were required to submit new (Second) NDCs by 2020.¹¹ Others were asked to submit updated versions of their First NDCs by 2020 that reflect increasing ambition. The majority of countries met this deadline in advance of COP26.¹² According to the UN Climate Change Secretariat (Secretariat), all 195 Parties to the PA have submitted First, updated First, or Second NDCs.¹³

Conditional NDCs

When preparing NDCs, some countries attach conditions to the implementation of some measures that reflect the country’s domestic context and capabilities. Further, Parties to the PA recognized that “enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions.”¹⁴ Many countries requesting financial assistance include two sets of targets: targets unconditional on international support, and additional, more ambitious, targets that are conditional on international support (financial, technical, or other support). Table 1 lists every Party with an NDC target conditional on international support. As of October 24, 2024, 111 of 195 Parties have submitted NDCs or Intended NDCs (INDCs) conditional on international support.

The following NDC targets are extracted from countries’ NDC submissions found at UNFCCC’s NDC Registry.¹⁵ Table 1 reflects the most recent submissions found in the NDC Registry, and as such, some NDC targets in Table 1 are from a Party’s Intended NDC (INDC). The table notes reflect which targets are from an INDC. In order to provide consistency throughout Table 1, the language used in Table 1 to describe the NDC targets may reflect slight modifications to the language used in the NDCs themselves. For additional information on and analysis of NDCs, see CRS Report R46945, Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pledges by Selected Countries: Nationally Determined Contributions and Net-Zero Legislation, and UNFCCC’s 2023 NDC Synthesis Report.¹⁶

Table 1. Conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Submitted to the UNFCCC

Mitigation commitments are extracted from NDC text and expressed as either percent reductions from

“business-as-usual” (BAU) as defined by each country, where available, or as GHG emissions estimates

expressed in million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide-equivalents (CO2e), including land use and

forestry changes (LULUCF), unless otherwise noted.

(Current as of October 24, 2024)

Country NDC Targets

Afghanistan^a 13.6% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Algeria^b 7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); up to 22% (unconditional + conditional) from BAU by 2030

11 UNFCCC, Decision 4/CMA.1, paras 7, 9.

12 COP26 was scheduled to be held in 2020 and was postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

13 “NDC Registry,” UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG. Libya and Yemen are Signatories but not Parties to the PA.

14 UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, Article 4, para 5.

15 “NDC Registry,” UNFCCC, at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG.

16 “2023 NDC Synthesis Report,” UNFCCC, 2023, at https://unfccc.int/ndc-synthesis-report-2023.

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Country NDC Targets

Angola 14% reduction from BAU (BAU = 108^c in 2025) by 2025 (unconditional); 24% reduction from BAU by 2025 (unconditional + conditional)

Antigua and Barbuda Several sectoral specific targets, which are conditional on international support.

Azerbaijan 40% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050 (conditional)

Bangladesh 6.73% reduction from BAU (BAU = 409 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 21.85% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Barbados 20% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 35% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 35% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 70% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Belarus 35% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 40% from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Belize Several sector specific targets, all of which are conditional on international support except one (improve waste management processes to avoid emissions of up to 18 ktCO2e^d per year by 2030)

Benin 20.15% reduction compared with the reference scenario over the period 2021-2030 (conditional)

Bhutan Remain carbon-neutral (conditional)

Bosnia and Herzegovina 12.8% reduction from 2014 levels or 33.2% from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 17.5% reduction from 2014 levels or 36.8% from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Burkina Faso 29.42% reduction from BAU by 2030 (19.6% unconditional, 9.82% conditional)

Burundi 1.58% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 3.04% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 11% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 13% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Cabo Verde 18% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 24% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Cambodia 41.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Cameroon 12% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 35% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Central African Republic 9.03% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 11.82% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 14.64% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 24.28% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Chad 0.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 19.3% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Comoros 23% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

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Country NDC Targets

Congo (Republic of) 17.09% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 21.46% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 39.88% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 32.19% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Cook Islands^e 81% electricity generation emissions reduction from 2006 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Côte d’Ivoire 30.41% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 98.95% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 16.4% reduction by 2030 (unconditional); 52% reduction by 2030 (conditional)

Democratic Republic of Congo 2% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 21% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Djibouti^f 40% reduction by 2030 (unconditional); 60% reduction by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

The Commonwealth of Dominica 45% reduction from 2014 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Dominican Republic 27% (7% unconditional and 20% conditional) reduction from BAU by 2030

Egypt Reduction of electricity emissions by 37%; oil and gas emissions by 65%; and transport emissions by 7% from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

El Salvador Reduction of energy sector emissions by 640 ktCO2e from BAU (BAU = 2019 levels) by 2030 (unconditional); 819 ktCO2e from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Equatorial Guinea 35% reduction from 2019 levels by 2030 and 50% reduction from 2019 levels by 2050 (conditional)

Eritrea Reduction of fossil fuel emissions by 12% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); reduction of fossil fuel emissions by 38.5% from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Eswatini 5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 14% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Ethiopia 14% reduction from BAU (BAU = 403.5 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 68.8% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Fiji Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector by 30% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional [10%] + conditional [20%])

Gabon Remain carbon neutral until 2050 and beyond (unconditional); net carbon absorption of at least 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2050 (conditional)

Gambia Reduction of forestry and energy sector emissions by 2.6% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 47.2% reduction of emissions across all sectors from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

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Country NDC Targets

Georgia 35% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 50%-57% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Ghana Reduction of 8.5 MtCO2e total emissions by 2025 and 24.6 MtCO2e total emissions by 2030 (unconditional); reduction of 16.7 MtCO2e total emissions by 2025 and 39.4 MtCO2e total emissions by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Grenada 40% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Guatemala 11.2% reduction from 2016 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 22.6% reduction from 2016 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Guinea 9.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 excluding LULUCF emissions or 20% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (unconditional); 17% reduction from BAU by 2030 excluding LULUCF or 49% reduction from BAU by 2030 including LULUCF (conditional)

Guinea Bissau 10% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 30% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Haiti 6.32% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 25.5% reduction from BAU (conditional)

Honduras 16% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Indonesia 31.89% reduction from BAU (BAU = 2869 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 43.20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Jamaica 25.4% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 28.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Jordan 5% reduction from 2012 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 31% reduction from 2012 levels by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Kazakhstan 15% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 25% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Kiribati 9.5% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 8% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 16.7% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 23.8% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Kyrgyzstan 16.63% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 15.97% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 36.61% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 43.62% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Lao People’s Democratic Republic 60% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); several sectoral targets that are all conditional

Lebanon 20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 31% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Lesotho 10% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 35% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

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Country NDC Targets

Liberia 10% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 64% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Malawi 6% reduction from BAU by 2040 (unconditional); 51% reduction from BAU by 2040 (unconditional + conditional)

Maldives 26% reduction from BAU by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2030 (conditional)

Mali Reduction of energy emissions by 31%; agriculture emissions by 25%; LULUCF emissions by 39%; and waste emissions by 31% from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Mauritania 11% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 92% reduction from BAU by 2020 (conditional)

Mauritius 40% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Mexico 35% of GHG emissions and 51% reduction of black carbon emissions from BAU (BAU = 991 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 40% reduction of GHG from BAU by 2030 including a 70% reduction of black carbon by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Micronesia 65% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation from 2000 levels by 2030 and 65% reduction of black carbon and methane emissions from diesel electric generation from 2000 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Moldova (Republic of) 70% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 88% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Mongolia 22.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 27.2% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Morocco 18.3% reduction compared with BAU (BAU = 142 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 45.5% reduction compared with BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Mozambique 40 MtCO2e reduction between 2020 and 2025 (conditional)

Myanmar 244.52 MtCO2e reduction by 2030 (unconditional); 414.75 MtCO2e reduction by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Namibia 11.9 MtCO2e reduction from BAU by 2030, enhancing Namibia’s sink capacity to 102.615 MtCO2e (conditional)

Nepal Several sectoral specific targets, which are conditional on international support.

Nicaragua Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support.

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Country NDC Targets

Niger Reduction of LULUCF emissions by 12.57% from BAU by 2030; reduction of energy emissions by 10.6% from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); reduction of LULUCF emissions by 22.75% from BAU by 2030; reduction of energy emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with BAU (conditional).

Nigeria 20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 47% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Niue^g Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support.

Oman 21% reduction from BAU by 2030 (7% unconditional + 14% conditional)

Pakistan 15% reduction from BAU (BAU = 1,603 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); 50% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Palau^h 22% energy sector emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2025 (conditional)

Papua New Guinea Carbon neutrality within the energy sector by 2030; reduction of LULUCF emissions by 25% from 2015 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Panama Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support.

Paraguay 20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (10% unconditional + 10% conditional)

Peru Not to exceed 208.8 in 2030 (unconditional); not to exceed 179 in 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Philippines 2.71% reduction from BAU (3.3 Gigatons (Gt) cumulative emissions) for the period 2020-2030 (unconditional); 75% reduction from BAU (3.3 Gt cumulative emissions) for the period 2020-2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Rwanda 16% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 38% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

St. Kitts and Nevis 61% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Saint Lucia 7% energy sector emissions reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Samoa 26% reduction from 2007 levels by 2030 (conditional)

São Tomé and Príncipe 27% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Senegal 5% reduction from BAU by 2025 and 7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 23.7% reduction from BAU by 2024 and 29.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Seychelles 73.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Sierra Leone 10% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

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Country NDC Targets

Solomon Islands 14% reduction from 2015 levels by 2025 and 33% reduction from 2015 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 41% reduction from 2015 levels by 2025 and 78% reduction from 2015 levels by 2030 (unconditional + conditional); net-zero emissions by 2050 (conditional)

Somalia 30% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Sri Lanka 14.5% reduction from BAU by 2030 (4% unconditional + 10.5% conditional)

State of Palestine 17.5% reduction from BAU under “Status-quo Scenario” by 2040 (conditional); 26.6% reduction from BAU under “Independence Scenario” by 2040 (conditional)

Sudan Fixed level emissions reductions from BAU by 2030 for the following sectors: energy (38%); forestry (45%); waste (20%) (conditional)

Suriname Several sector specific targets, which are conditional on international support. Taken together, the sectors included in Suriname’s NDC account for 70% of Suriname’s emissions.

Tajikistan 60%-70% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 50%-60% from 1990 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Tanzania 30%-35% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Thailand 30% reduction from BAU (BAU = 555 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional); up to a 40% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

The Bahamas 30% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Togo 20.51% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 50.57% reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Tonga 13% energy sector emissions reduction from 2006 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Trinidad and Tobagoⁱ 30% public transportation sector emissions reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional); 45% public transportation sector emissions reduction from BAU by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Tunisia 45% reduction in carbon intensity from 2010 levels by 2030 (27% unconditional + 18% conditional)

Turkmenistan 20% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Tuvalu Tuvalu’s Updated NDC includes unconditional, conditional, and aspirational contributions to reduce emissions, including 100% power (electricity) sector emissions reduction by 2030; an increase in energy efficiency in Funafuti by 30%; 60% energy sector emissions reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditionality not specified); and zero-carbon development pathway by 2050 (conditional).

Uganda 24.7% reduction from BAU by 2030 (5.9% unconditional + 18.8% conditional)

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Country NDC Targets

Uruguay Uruguay commits to not exceed 9,267 Gigagrams (Gg) of CO2 emissions, 818 Gg of methane emissions, and 32 Gg of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by 2030, and to reduce hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions by 10% relative to BAU (unconditional). Uruguay commits to reducing its emissions by a further 960 Gg of CO2, 61 Gg of methane, and 2 Gg of N2O, and reducing its HFC emissions by a further 5% (conditional).

Venezuela 20% reduction compared with BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Vietnam 43.5% reduction from BAU (BAU = 928 in 2030) by 2030 (unconditional + conditional)

Zambia 25% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (unconditional); 47% reduction from 2010 levels by 2030 (conditional)

Zimbabwe 40% reduction from BAU by 2030 (conditional)

Source: Compiled by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) using data from UNFCCC, “NDC Registry,” at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG; and World Resources Institute, Climate Watch Data, “NDC Enhancement Tracker,” at https://www.climatewatchdata.org/2020-ndc-tracker. Notes: This table includes only emission reduction targets listed in NDCs and does not include other elements of NDCs, such as supporting information that may have been updated. See individual NDC documents for a complete description of GHGs, sectors, and other data and elements associated with each countries’ targets. a. Afghanistan has submitted only an Intended NDC (INDC), submitted on November 23, 2016.

b. Algeria has submitted only an INDC, submitted on October 20, 2016.

c. Where BAU values are present throughout this table, they represent values in MtCO2e.

d. ktCO2e = metric kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

e. The Cook Islands has submitted only an INDC, submitted on September 1, 2016.

f. Djibouti has submitted only an INDC, submitted on November 11, 2016.

g. Niue has submitted only an INDC, submitted on October 28, 2016.

h. Palau has submitted only an INDC, submitted on April 22, 2016.

i. Trinidad and Tobago has submitted only an INDC, submitted on February 22, 2018 (the UNFCCC’s INDC submission portal lists the submission date as October 21, 2015).

Author Information

Claire M. Jordan Senior Research Librarian

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