Examining the Monetary Causes of the Economic Slowdown

This issue brief investigates the effects of changes in money supply growth on the current economic conditions. The results presented are based upon a statistical methodology outlined in a CRS report (No.82-43E, March 1982) of the same title. The approach may be distinguished from most previous work along these lines in that it attempts to estimate the statistical significance of the 1979-82 deceleration in monetary growth. The resulting estimates are then employed in analyzing the timing implications of decelerating monetary growth for episodes of high and volatile interest rates, for lower inflation, and for unstable economic growth.