Northern Ireland’s 2022 Assembly Election: Outcome and Implications

INSIGHTi

Northern Ireland’s 2022 Assembly Election:
Outcome and Implications
May 11, 2022
On May 5, 2022, voters in Northern Ireland—a part of the United Kingdom (UK)—went to the polls in
elections for Northern Ireland’s Assembly, its regional legislature. In a landmark outcome, the all-Ireland
Sinn Fein party—which supports a united Ireland—came in first place. The Assembly is a key institution
in Northern Ireland’s devolved government, established by the 1998 peace agreement aimed at ending
“the Troubles,” a 30-year sectarian conflict in which roughly 3,500 people died. The peace accord
mandates power sharing in the devolved government between Northern Ireland’s two dominant
communities: unionists, or Protestants who largely define themselves as British and support remaining
part of the UK, and nationalists, or Catholics who consider themselves Irish and may favor a united
Ireland. Despite a much improved security situation since 1998, peace and stability in Northern Ireland
remain fragile and of continued interest to many in Congress. (Also see CRS Report R46259, Northern
Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests.)
Since 2007, Assembly elections have resulted in successive power-sharing governments led by the
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein. Nevertheless, distrust persists between these parties and
between the unionist and nationalist communities more broadly. The DUP strongly supports Northern
Ireland remaining in the UK, whereas Sinn Fein—traditionally associated with the paramilitary Irish
Republican Army (IRA)—is staunchly nationalist. Disagreements caused a nearly three-year delay in
forming a devolved government after the 2017 Assembly election.
The 2022 election occurred amid heightened tensions in Northern Ireland, due in part to divisions over
Brexit—the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) in 2020. The DUP and other unionists are
unhappy with the post-Brexit trade and customs arrangements for Northern Ireland (set out in a protocol
to the UK-EU withdrawal agreement designed to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland and
help preserve the peace process). The DUP views the protocol as dividing Northern Ireland from the rest
of the UK and threatening the UK’s constitutional integrity. The post-Brexit rules also have resulted in
some trade disruptions between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Although Sinn Fein centered its
election campaign on everyday concerns, such as the rising cost of living and health care, party officials
maintain that “Brexit changes everything” and have called for a referendum on Irish unification (a border
poll).
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Election Results
For the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, Sinn Fein won the largest number of seats in the 90-
member Assembly, surpassing the DUP. Decreased support for the DUP appears to be driven by
dissatisfaction with the party’s leadership on Brexit and internal party divisions. The smaller, cross-
community Alliance Party made significant gains, attributed to voter frustration with Northern Ireland’s
identity politics and frequent instability in the power-sharing institutions. Voter turnout was 63%.
Northern Ireland 2022 Election Results
(Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs)
Political Party
# of Seats
+/- Seats
Sinn Fein (SF; hard-line nationalist, left wing)
27
—
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP; hard-line unionist, conservative)
25
-3
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI; nonsectarian, centrist/liberal)
17
+9
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP; moderate unionist, center right)
9
-1
Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP; moderate nationalist, center left)
8
-4
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV; hard-line unionist, right wing)
1
—
People Before Profit Alliance (PBPA; nonsectarian, left wing)
1
—
Independent (unionist)
2
+1
Source: BBC News.
Implications
With the largest number of seats, Sinn Fein is entitled to the position of First Minister, previously always
held by a unionist party. Although the roles of First Minister and Deputy First Minister are equal and form
a joint office that leads Northern Ireland’s Executive, a Sinn Fein First Minister would be highly symbolic
given the party’s history and support for Irish unification. Sinn Fein’s leader in Northern Ireland and
presumptive First Minister, Michelle O’Neill, has emphasized making government work for all people in
Northern Ireland. DUP party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has not confirmed if the DUP will fill the
Deputy First Minister post alongside a Sinn Fein First Minister and may face pressure against doing so,
both from within the DUP and from other unionists.
A lengthy delay in establishing a new devolved government appears likely. The DUP asserts it will not
form a new power-sharing government until its concerns about the Northern Ireland protocol are resolved,
but UK-EU negotiations to mitigate implementation problems with the protocol remain deadlocked. The
DUP has urged the UK government to overrule parts of the protocol, which would further increase UK-
EU and UK-Ireland tensions. Meanwhile, the Alliance Party argues for reforming the devolved
government’s power-sharing rules to promote greater stability and reflect growing support for
nonsectarian parties. If a new devolved government is not formed within six months, another election
may be called.
Despite Sinn Fein’s victory, a border poll does not appear imminent. Any decision on a border poll in
Northern Ireland rests with the UK government, which at present has ruled out holding one. Most opinion
polls indicate that a majority of people in Northern Ireland support the region remaining part of the UK.
Demographic and societal changes, however, could increase support for a united Ireland in the longer
term. Sinn Fein, which also won the largest percentage of the vote in Ireland’s general election in 2020,
has called for an “honest debate” on a united Ireland.

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U.S. and Congressional Interests
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have supported the Northern Ireland
peace process and have encouraged full implementation of the 1998 peace accord. Both the Biden
Administration and some in Congress have stressed that Brexit must not undermine the peace process or
jeopardize the open border on the island of Ireland. Following the May 5 election, the U.S. State
Department urged all Northern Ireland political leaders to work together to reestablish a power-sharing
government, viewing it as the best mechanism to address the region’s “critical and immediate challenges
concerning the economy, health, and education.” Some Members of Congress emphasize the importance
of a functioning power-sharing government to maintaining peace and stability in Northern Ireland.


Author Information

Kristin Archick

Specialist in European Affairs




Disclaimer
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