Estimated “Direct Payments” by State Under the House and Senate Versions of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (H.R. 1319)
INSIGHTi
Estimated “Direct Payments” by State Under
the House and Senate Versions of the
American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (H.R. 1319)
March 5, 2021
On February 27, 2021, the House passed the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA, H.R. 1319).
Section 9601 of that bil would create a third round of direct payments (also referred to as economic
impact payments or stimulus checks). On March 4, 2021, Senator Schumer proposed S.Amdt. 891 to H.R.
1319 (hereinafter referred to as “the Senate amendment”), which would narrow the income ranges over
which the direct payments are phased out. This Insight compares the effects of the shortened phaseout
ranges in the Senate amendment to the phaseout ranges included in the House-passed version of H.R.
1319.
In this Insight, a household is defined as al individuals included on a federal income tax return. Under
both the House-passed version of H.R. 1319 and the Senate amendment, households could receive a
maximum of
$1,400 for each eligible adult individual ($2,800 in the case of most married couples),
plus
an additional $1,400 for each dependent as defined for tax purposes.
The House-passed version of the bil would phase out the payments for households with income in given
ranges. Households with incomes exceeding these ranges would be ineligible to receive a payment. Under
the House-passed version of H.R. 1319, the phaseout ranges would be as follows:
$75,000 to $100,000 for single filers,
$112,500 to $150,000 for head of household filers, and
$150,000 to $200,000 for married joint filers.
The Senate amendment would narrow the income ranges over which the payments would phase out.
Under the Senate amendment, the phaseout ranges would be as follows:
$75,000 to $80,000 for single filers,
$112,500 to $120,000 for head of household filers, and
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$150,000 to $160,000 for married joint filers.
Both the House-passed version of H.R. 1319 and the Senate amendment would phase out the payment
amounts proportional y (or “ratably”) in relation to the amount of a household’s income within the
phaseout range. Due to the narrower phaseout ranges, fewer households would be eligible to receive a
direct payment under the Senate amendment than the House-passed version.
CRS estimates that under the House-passed version of H.R. 1319, approximately 152.9 mil ion
households (out of a total of 166.1 mil ion households in the United States) would be eligible to receive a
total of $394 bil ion in direct payments. Under the Senate amendment, CRS estimates that approximately
145.5 mil ion households would be eligible to receive a total of $380 bil ion in direct payments. Table 1
presents these estimates by state.
Table 1. Estimated Eligibility for a Proposed Third Direct Payment, by State
Dol ars in thousands
House-Passed Version of
Senate Amendment to
Difference Between House
H.R. 1319
H.R. 1319
and Senate Versions
Number of
Aggregate
Number of
Aggregate
Number of
Aggregate
Households
Total of
Households
Total of
Households
Total of
Receiving a
Payments
Receiving a
Payments
Receiving a
Payments
State
Payment
(thousands)
Payment
(thousands)
Payment
(thousands)
Alabama
2,307,184
$6,075,380
2,225,966
$5,912,647
81,218
$162,733
Alaska
319,462
$885,754
297,440
$847,315
22,022
$38,440
Arizona
3,307,739
$8,722,874
3,166,937
$8,471,635
140,802
$251,239
Arkansas
1,426,980
$3,788,341
1,381,715
$3,693,877
45,266
$94,464
California
18,007,433
$47,032,680
17,030,537
$45,245,424
976,896
$1,787,256
Colorado
2,673,375
$6,654,986
2,492,806
$6,354,081
180,569
$300,905
Connecticut
1,691,912
$4,164,154
1,561,605
$3,932,063
130,307
$232,092
Delaware
489,020
$1,177,504
466,105
$1,133,329
22,915
$44,175
District of Columbia
361,230
$704,900
325,339
$663,331
35,891
$41,569
Florida
10,434,594
$25,917,820
10,050,121
$25,186,699
384,473
$731,120
Georgia
4,840,794
$12,833,802
4,629,178
$12,413,266
211,616
$420,536
Hawai
676,384
$1,726,110
642,143
$1,660,746
34,241
$65,363
Idaho
761,616
$2,166,736
734,604
$2,111,168
27,012
$55,568
Il inois
5,901,274
$14,976,996
5,560,063
$14,344,124
341,210
$632,873
Indiana
3,143,686
$8,383,536
3,013,560
$8,104,439
130,126
$279,097
Iowa
1,482,964
$3,917,328
1,414,893
$3,776,146
68,070
$141,182
Kansas
1,349,856
$3,516,540
1,286,528
$3,386,559
63,329
$129,981
Kentucky
2,155,461
$5,668,389
2,065,798
$5,501,097
89,663
$167,292
Louisiana
2,264,159
$5,811,487
2,189,021
$5,665,454
75,139
$146,034
Maine
686,175
$1,704,211
659,989
$1,650,211
26,185
$54,000
Maryland
2,727,672
$6,617,686
2,516,312
$6,256,440
211,360
$361,246
Massachusetts
3,343,811
$7,784,598
3,108,170
$7,366,438
235,640
$418,161
Congressional Research Service
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House-Passed Version of
Senate Amendment to
Difference Between House
H.R. 1319
H.R. 1319
and Senate Versions
Number of
Aggregate
Number of
Aggregate
Number of
Aggregate
Households
Total of
Households
Total of
Households
Total of
Receiving a
Payments
Receiving a
Payments
Receiving a
Payments
State
Payment
(thousands)
Payment
(thousands)
Payment
(thousands)
Michigan
4,840,418
$12,104,068
4,622,706
$11,722,475
217,712
$381,593
Minnesota
2,578,735
$6,659,716
2,420,333
$6,331,264
158,403
$328,452
Mississippi
1,434,947
$3,833,330
1,399,455
$3,761,854
35,492
$71,477
Missouri
2,863,938
$7,501,545
2,735,611
$7,251,562
128,328
$249,983
Montana
512,507
$1,318,388
491,225
$1,275,668
21,282
$42,719
Nebraska
885,087
$2,364,448
843,104
$2,278,711
41,984
$85,738
Nevada
1,472,921
$3,823,369
1,426,531
$3,719,497
46,390
$103,873
New Hampshire
637,723
$1,535,633
597,274
$1,457,134
40,449
$78,498
New Jersey
3,970,639
$10,164,989
3,691,546
$9,618,195
279,093
$546,794
New Mexico
1,022,549
$2,646,889
989,431
$2,583,471
33,119
$63,418
New York
9,495,311
$23,235,163
8,968,004
$22,386,444
527,307
$848,718
North Carolina
4,891,572
$12,695,860
4,673,848
$12,330,532
217,723
$365,328
North Dakota
367,944
$962,551
351,652
$931,557
16,292
$30,994
Ohio
5,638,336
$14,476,548
5,373,432
$13,961,598
264,905
$514,950
Oklahoma
1,809,893
$5,007,780
1,742,950
$4,878,388
66,943
$129,392
Oregon
2,042,262
$5,175,572
1,932,081
$4,986,382
110,181
$189,191
Pennsylvania
6,187,751
$15,480,849
5,876,366
$14,883,553
311,385
$597,296
Rhode Island
529,393
$1,270,325
497,590
$1,217,312
31,803
$53,013
South Carolina
2,417,867
$6,190,530
2,335,098
$6,046,296
82,769
$144,234
South Dakota
411,892
$1,074,909
389,712
$1,034,286
22,180
$40,623
Tennessee
3,260,040
$8,366,563
3,162,228
$8,170,429
97,812
$196,134
Texas
12,441,832
$34,237,251
11,873,736
$33,134,439
568,096
$1,102,811
Utah
1,256,134
$3,919,291
1,191,708
$3,764,534
64,426
$154,757
Vermont
313,619
$764,325
295,651
$731,749
17,968
$32,576
Virginia
3,840,885
$9,772,254
3,611,098
$9,323,938
229,787
$448,316
Washington
3,374,198
$8,791,815
3,180,298
$8,435,046
193,900
$356,770
West Virginia
923,102
$2,336,866
891,039
$2,275,091
32,062
$61,775
Wisconsin
2,839,872
$7,217,337
2,722,268
$6,981,675
117,605
$235,662
Wyoming
271,898
$731,820
260,222
$710,257
11,676
$21,563
Total
152,886,047 $393,891,796
145,365,025 $379,859,827
7,521,021
$14,031,969
Source: Congressional Research Service (CRS) analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the TRIM3
microsimulation model. TRIM3 is funded by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and maintained at the
Urban Institute.
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Notes: Data presented in this table reflect three-year averages. Further discussion of the use of a three-year average is
available in the “Data and Methods” section. Additional information on the TRIM3 model is available in Appendix B of CRS
Report R45971, The Impact of the Federal Income Tax Code on Poverty.
Limitations
Due to data limitations, the estimates in Table 1 do not account for some features of the direct payment
included in either version of H.R. 1319. For example, the estimates provided in Table 1 cover only the 50
states and the District of Columbia. Although residents of U.S. territories would be eligible for the direct
payments, the data used in this analysis do not include U.S. territories. As a result, CRS is not able to
estimate territorial residents’ eligibility for a direct payment
Additional y, the data used to create these estimates do not include information on identification numbers
used when a household files their income tax return. Language in H.R. 1319 (both versions) requires
individuals to provide a Social Security Number (SSN) in order to be eligible for a direct payment, and
any dependents’ SSN in order to receive the additional $1,400 per-dependent amount. Because the
estimates in Table 1 do not account for whether the individuals listed on a taxpayer’s income tax return
would provide an SSN, they may somewhat overestimate the true number and amount of direct payments.
Other limitations of this analysis may lead the estimates in Table 1 to somewhat underestimate the true
number and amount of payments. More information on this potential overestimation effect is available
here.
Data and Methods
The estimates in Table 1 are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Social and Economic
Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey and data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.
Due to sample-size limitations, these estimates represent a three-year average covering the years 2015,
2016, and 2017 (the most recent three-year period for which TRIM3-adjusted ASEC data are available).
Author Information
Conor F. Boyle
Jameson A. Carter
Analyst in Social Policy
Research Assistant
Disclaimer
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