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The United Kingdom Election
Derek E. Mix, Analyst in European Affairs
(dmix@crs.loc.gov, 79116)
May 8, 2015 (IN10266)
2015 Election Result
The United Kingdom's (UK's) general election that was held on May 7, 2015, resulted in a
decisive victory for the Conservative Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister David
Cameron. Wit
h 331 seats, the Conservatives have the numbers to form a singleparty
government with a narrow absolute majority in the 650seat House of Commons. After
winning 307 seats in the 2010 election, Prime Minister Cameron and the Conservative
Party have led the UK government for the past five years in a coalition with the Liberal
Democrats, who held 57 seats. The Labour Party suffered a considerable defeat in the
2015 election, with party leader Ed Miliband resigning after the party dropped to 232
seats, down from the 258 it won in 2010.
The result came as a considerable surprise to many observers. In the weeks prior to the
election, polls consistently projected an extremely close finish, and it appeared nearly
certain that the UK was headed for a second consecutive "hung Parliament," with no party
expected to win a majority. The UK political establishment had braced itself for a post
election period of maneuvering and uncertainty in which both the Conservative Party and
the Labour Party would attempt to form a government by striking deals with smaller
parties. Compared to the final results, however,
preelection polls underestimated the
level of Conservative support and significantly overestimated support for Labour.
Table 1. May 2015 UK General Election Results
Party
# of Seats
Net # of Seats +/–
% of Vote
Conservatives
331
+24
36.9%
Labour
232
26
30.5%
Scottish National Party
56
+50
3.1%
Liberal Democrats
8
48
7.8%
UK Independence Party
1
+1
12.6%
All Others
22
6
9.1%
Source: "Election 2015 Results," BBC News,
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results. Note: Turnout was 66.1%.
The signature initiative of the Conservativeled coalition government that took office in
2010 was a farreaching austerity program aiming to reduce the country's budget deficit.
Their victory in the 2015 election allows the Conservative Party to continue implementing
this program as the centerpiece of their domestic economic policy. Although many
observers note that austerity has heightened social tensions in the UK and generated
criticism of the Conservatives' ideology, the UK's budget deficit has decreased, and in
recent years economic growth has improved.
The UK's Changing Political Dynamics
Following the 2010 election, many analysts concluded that coalition governments were
likely to become the new norm in UK politics, as a system long dominated by the two
large parties grows increasingly fragmented. Although the surprising Conservative
majority defied such expectations for 2015, developments related to the smaller parties
reflect a number of dynamic changes:
The losses suffered by the Liberal Democrats were even greater than expected.
After winning 57 seats in 2010 and entering government for the first time as the
junior coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats were reduced to eight seats. Party
leader Nick Clegg, who served as deputy prime minister in the coalition, resigned
his position. For decades the Liberal Democrats have sought to portray
themselves as a progressive, thirdparty alternative to the two large parties. In
large measure, support for the Liberal Democrats plunged due to unhappiness
among voters who felt that the party betrayed its principles by agreeing to a
coalition with the Conservatives.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) made huge gains, winning 56 seats out of
Scotland's 59 constituencies. Following the 2010 election, the Labour Party held 41
seats in Scotland, the Liberal Democrats held 11, and the SNP held 6. The SNP led
the "Yes" campaign for Scottish independence that was defeated in a September
2014 referendum and is outspokenly critical of the Conservative Party's policies
and ideology. With the SNP emboldened by this result as it becomes the second
largest opposition party, Scotland is likely to remain a prominent topic in UK
politics.
Over the past several years, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), a populist party
opposed to immigration and British membership in the EU, has gained support by
drawing away disaffected Conservative voters and capitalizing on anti
establishment sentiments. UKIP notably took first place in the UK's May 2014
elections for the European Parliament. UKIP won the thirdhighest percentage of
the nationwide vote, with 12.6%, but was able to win only one parliamentary seat.
Unable to win a seat himself, party leader Nigel Farage resigned his position.
The UK and the EU
The 2015 election could have important consequences for the UK's membership in the
European Union (EU). Prime Minister Cameron indicated in 2013 that, if reelected, he
intended to negotiate a "new settlement" with the EU and put the UK's continued
membership to an "inorout" national referendum by 2017. The referendum campaign and
possibility of a socalled "Brexit" are now set to become central preoccupations of British
and EU politics, and the outcome is difficult to predict: an April
poll indicated 40% would
vote to stay in the EU and 39% to leave, with a significant group of undecided voters.
The U.S.-UK Relationship
Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress view the UK as the United States' closest
ally. The two countries share a strong political partnership, a unique defense and
intelligence relationship, and similar economic views. Analysts believe that close
cooperation will continue for the foreseeable future in areas such as counterterrorism,
economic issues, and the future of NATO, as well as numerous global and regional security
challenges. Nevertheless, some observers have suggested that the U.S.UK relationship is
losing relevance due to changing U.S. priorities and shifting global dynamics. U.S. officials
have expressed alarm about cuts to UK defense spending and reductions in the size and
capabilities of the British military. U.S. officials have also been concerned about
uncertainty over the future size and composition of the UK's nuclear weapons arsenal.
Administration officials have also conveyed concerns that a UK break from the EU would
reduce U.S. influence in Europe, weaken the EU's position on free trade, and make the EU
a less reliable partner on security issues.
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