Defense’s 30-Year Aircraft Plan Reveals New Details
October 9, 2018
Defense’s 30-Year Aircraft Plan Reveals New Details
Each year, the Department of Defense issues a 30-year
The A-10 Thunderbolt II attack jet, which was proposed for
aviation plan, intended to chart the direction of the aviation
retirement by the Air Force four years ago, is not only
enterprise. This plan is typically relatively short on
going to be retained, but life-extended until the 2030s.
specifics, in part because 30 years is rather far to foresee in
These are 1980s-vintage aircraft, so that means they are
detail, particularly as that goes 25 years beyond official
likely to be in service until the age of 50. Once again, this
defense budget projections.
may be another sign that the Air Force expects to get F-35s
more slowly than originally planned.
By contrast, the most recent 30-year aviation plan released
in April 2018 is full of details on specific programs,
Another unexpected initiative is the Air Force’s intent to
including cancellations, life extensions, and new starts.
replace its handful of C-32 VIP transports, based on the
Some are explicit; others, between the lines. Some of the
Boeing 757. As the 757 has been out of production for 14
highlights follow.
years, a new aircraft may be expected to meet this
requirement.
Air Force
The Air Force previously announced plans to retire the air-
Back to the theme of extension: The Air Force was going to
superiority F-15C Eagle. But this plan declares an intention
retire seven of its E-3 Sentry airborne command and control
to refresh and extends the life of the F-15E Strike Eagles,
aircraft. Instead, those seven planes are to be kept and
the attack variant.
refreshed.
The Air Force has also decided to extend the life of its F-16
Even the C-130 Hercules, in production since 1956, makes
Fighting Falcon fleet. What do the F-15E and the F-16 have
news in this plan. The Air Force intends to keep its existing
in common? They are both slated to be replaced by the F-35
C-130s, but intends not to acquire any more combat
Lightning II. This new plan may show the Air Force
delivery C-130J Super Hercules. While that does not mean
hedging in case F-35s do not arrive as fast as hoped and
the end of the C-130 line, it is a departure for the Air Force
thus has to extend existing airframes to fill the gap. The
to no longer be acquiring that aircraft.
target quantity of F-35s has not changed; the Air Force still
expects to buy 1,763. But in case they do not arrive as
Navy
quickly as anticipated, the Air Force seeks to update its
In line with the theme of extending older aircraft, this
older aircraft.
document reveals Navy plans to put additional money into
extending the lives of its F-18 Super Hornets. These are yet
The Air Force’s intention to recapitalize its tanker fleet is
more aircraft currently expected to be replaced by F-35.
on the record, with a program underway to buy 179 KC-46
Concomitantly, the Navy is to retire its oldest F-18s, all of
Pegasuses. In this plan, the Air Force reveals a conclusion
the A-D model Hornets.
that the existing program is not enough, announcing an
intention both to buy more KC-46s than anticipated and to
The Navy does plan to buy some C-130s, at a
continue to upgrade the existing KC-135s. The previous
comparatively low rate.
intent was to retire KC-135s, but now the Air Force seeks to
make them last longer instead.
The Navy’s acquisition goal for the P-8 Poseidon sub
hunter has not changed. It still expects to buy 117. But
The 30-year plan also reveals that the KC-46 is now to
language in the 30-year plan says, “Given the recent
replace the larger KC-10 Extender tanker, a notable change.
geopolitical changes, additional aircraft may be required.”
When the Air Force began modernizing tankers, it
This is a tentative way to say that the goal is likely to
announced three programs. The first, called KC-X, was a
increase, perhaps in the FY2020 budget submission.
competition between Airbus and Boeing to provide 179
tankers to replace KC-135s. A follow-on program, called
Another new start program that was not in previous service
KC-Y, was mainly intended to buy another 179 of whatever
budgets, but announced in the 30-year plan: to replace the
tanker won KC-X. A third program, called KC-Z, would
T-44 fleet the Navy uses for training, based on the civilian
have built a new, bigger tanker from scratch to replace the
Beechcraft King Air. The Army intends to do something
59 KC-10s. This new plan implies that the KC-Z program
similar.
has gone away. KC-46 is an active and growing program,
but it now appears the program’s future is more promising
It may be no surprise that the Navy intends to extend the
than originally anticipated.
life of its fleet of T-45 Goshawk jet trainers. But the 30-
year plan for the first time announces a program to replace
it, beginning in the 2020s. This may help clear up an
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Defense’s 30-Year Aircraft Plan Reveals New Details
aviation mystery. For the Air Force’s recent T-X jet trainer
As mentioned, the Navy was retiring its C-12s and T-44s,
competition, two contenders entered existing aircraft, but
its King Air-based aircraft; the Army plans to do the same
Boeing decided to design its entry from scratch. That is
thing, starting a program to replace that whole fleet. Unlike
usually more expensive than bidding an existing design.
the C-32/757, the King Air is still in production, but it may
Further, the Boeing design included things like a shoulder-
not be the only contender for the replacement.
mounted wing, long landing gear, and leading edge slats
typically found in Navy aircraft, and an engine already in
The Army is finishing up its run of MH-47 Chinook heavy-
Navy inventory. With the announcement of a T-45 follow-
lift helicopters. This document reveals a new twist on Army
on program, Boeing’s decision to go into T-X with a fresh
plans that had not been seen before. Because the Army’s
design may have a clearer rationale.
new future vertical-lift aircraft does not yet have a heavy
variant (and is part of an early technology program that may
In rotorcraft, the Navy says it has enough MH-60R
not yield usable airframes for 20 years), the Army intends
Seahawk Romeos—a navalized Sikorsky Black Hawk with
to do remanufacturing on the Chinook fleet to extend its life
a lot of sensors—but ship procurement plans have changed,
another 15 to 20 years. The plan showed the Air Force
which means right now the Navy does not have enough
doing lots of service life extension programs (SLEPs), and
ships to host even the helicopters already in inventory.
the Navy announcing SLEPs on three different aircraft
Although it does not need more helicopters today, by 2030,
types; here, the Army is doing the same thing.
with more ships coming into the fleet, the Navy expects to
need many more. Normally (the document explains) the
The Army is on track with the UH-72 Lakota utility
Navy would buy more now, from a warm production line,
helicopter, with a program objective in place. But, like the
to have them later. Instead, the Navy says it wants to start
Navy with the P-8, the Army says in this document that
with a clean sheet of paper. The concept is to acquire a new
“replacement may be procured beyond FY27 should
helicopter in the mid-2030s based on the next generation of
operational or sustainability requirements dictate.” This
vertical-lift technology, perhaps informed by the ongoing
may indicate a belief that the current goal is insufficient,
joint program with the Army to develop new vertical-lift
and a new program may begin to replace or augment this
platforms. As the Navy is looking for a brand-new
fleet.
helicopter, if it has to be in the fleet in the mid-2030s, the
program is likely to start within three or four years.
Marine Corps
On the V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor, the 30-year aviation plan
Next-Generation Air Dominance is the early effort to define
says, “The addition of the last two squadrons created risk
the sixth-generation fighter jet for the Navy and Air Force.
due to the lack of reserves. Further study required.” This
This plan unveils a timeline; the Navy expects to complete
could be interpreted as a formal way of saying the Marine
its studies to define the aircraft’s parameters in mid-2019.
Corps would like to get more aircraft, and the exact number
When the plan was published, the Air Force expected to
may be forthcoming.
finish its similar studies in the middle of 2018.
Subsequently, that date has been revised to be similar to the
The Corps recently started taking delivery of the CH-53K
Navy’s. Although this system is likely decades away in
King Stallion heavy-lift helicopter, with a goal of 200
terms of full-rate production, it is a program on which
aircraft. The 30-year plan says that the service needs 220.
people have been doing a lot of conceptual thinking, and
Typically, this kind of increase turns up in the unfunded
the Navy is saying that within the next year, that thinking is
requirements lists. This time, it turned up in the 30-year
done. Actual proposals may be the next step.
aviation plan.
Army
Similar language addresses a Marine interest in 7 more AH-
The 30-year plan included news from the Army as well. It
1Z Viper attack helicopters above the 189 planned.
is no surprise that the service intends to retire its early
model UH-60 Black Hawk medium-lift helicopters and
Implications
extend the lives of more current ones. The new
All of this adds up to two things. One is an ambitious set of
announcement coming out of the 30-year aviation plan is
procurement plans between the lines of what is usually a
that the Army is going to give some of its old airframes
general projection. This year, it is a document full of
back to industry to be remanufactured. The plan does not
import.
say whether that means they’re to be remanufactured for
U.S service or, as part of the deal for new helos, Sikorsky is
These proposals also arrive in the context of a two-year
to get the old airframes back and can fix them up and sell
congressional agreement to raise the defense budget caps.
them to someone else. But it does seem the U.S.
The military services may be seeking to extend that
government is preparing to put a bunch of used airframes
spending level, and to send a message to Congress of where
on the market. Until there is more clarity on the specifics,
maintaining higher spending may lead—in essence,
impact on the market is hard to gauge. But it seems worth
publishing an unfunded requirements list in a different
noting that a 30-year horizon offers time for plans to
guise.
change.
Jeremiah Gertler, Specialist in Military Aviation
The Army MQ-1 Gray Eagle UAV requirement is going up
from 167 to 204. This aircraft is in production, and a new
IF10999
competition for the additional buy appears unlikely.
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Defense’s 30-Year Aircraft Plan Reveals New Details
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