U.S. Relations with Burma: Key Issues for 2015
April 27, 2015
U.S. Relations with Burma: Key Issues for 2015
2014 was a mixed year for U.S. relations with Burma
government, Burma’s parliament, and the UEC in hopes
(Myanmar). During his visit to Burma in November 2014,
that the 2015 elections will be “credible, transparent, and
President Obama praised President Thein Sein for the
inclusive.” U.S. election assistance to Burma has in part
release of child soldiers and political prisoners, and stated
been allocated to International Republican Institute (IRI)
that the democratization process in Burma was both “real”
and the National Democratic Institute (NDI).
and “incomplete.” Over 40 Representatives, however,
questioned decisions to undertake new initiatives in Burma
Ceasefire Negotiations and Ongoing Low-Intensity
while reforms appear to have stalled or even reversed.
Conflict
2015 may be pivotal for Burma’s political reform and U.S.
The Thein Sein government, the Burmese military
relations with Burma. Burma is tentatively scheduled to
(Tatmadaw), and representatives of 16 ethnic groups agreed
hold nationwide parliamentary elections in November, the
on a draft nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) on March
results of which many analysts see as a bellwether for the
31, 2015. The NCA’s conclusion awaits its formal approval
prospects for further political reforms. Efforts to conclude a
by the various participants in the negotiations. Leaders of
nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) to end nearly six
the 16 ethnic groups are scheduled to meet to discuss the
decades of low-grade civil war will continue in 2015. The
draft NCA in early May.
Thein Sein government will likely have to address the
continuing ethnic crisis in Rakhine State and will likely
The ceasefire negotiations are being conducted by the Thein
revise its initial plan to address the plight of the Rohingya.
Sein government’s Union Peace Working Committee
Other pressing issues for Burma are the continued arrest
(UPWC) and the ethnic groups’ Nationwide Ceasefire
and detention of political prisoners and the incomplete
Coordination Team (NCCT). The draft NCA resolved many
fulfillment of President Thein Sein’s “11 commitments”
issues, but does not address some of the more controversial
made during Obama’s first visit in 2012 (see below).
issues, such as the terms of post-ceasefire political dialogue,
the status of the ethnic militias, and the ceasefire’s code of
For the Obama Administration and Congress, 2015 may be
conduct for the Tatmadaw and the ethnic militias.
a crucial year for managing existing and new forms of
engagement. During his November 2014 visit, President
Meanwhile, low-intensity conflict continues in Kachin,
Obama announced the establishment of a Peace Corps
Mon, and Shan states. Fighting between the Burmese Army
program and a joint labor relations program in Burma with
and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
Denmark, Japan, and the International Labour Organization
(MNDAA) in the Kokang region of Shan State is
(ILO). The 113th Congress authorized new military-to-
particularly intense. Although the MNDAA is a party to the
military programs in Burma that are likely to begin after the
NCA negotiations, the Thein Sein government does not
parliamentary elections, depending on how the elections are
recognize the organization as a legitimate party to the talks.
conducted and their results.
The Plight of the Rohingyas
Parliamentary Elections and Constitutional Reform
In 2012, hundreds of Arakans (or Rakhines), a
Burma is tentatively scheduled to hold nationwide
predominately Buddhist minority in Burma’s western
parliamentary elections in November 2015. Many observers
Rakhine State, attacked Rohnigyas, members of a largely
anticipate that Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for
Muslim minority, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of
Democracy (NLD) party will emerge as the largest party in
Arakans and Rohingyas and the internal displacement of an
the new parliament, if they participate in the election.
estimated 140,000 people, mostly Rohingyas. More than
However, changes in Burma’s 2008 constitution backed by
two years later, over 100,000 displaced people remain in
the NLD and other opposition parties—including one that
camps, with limited access to international assistance,
would allow Aung San Suu Kyi to be eligible to become
education, or employment. United Nations Special
President—are unlikely to be approved before the elections.
Rapporteur to Burma, Yanghee Lee, has described the
In addition, Burma’s Union Election Commission (UEC),
conditions in the existing camps as “deplorable.”
which runs the elections, has placed some restrictions on
campaigning that may hinder the prospects of the
According to the Thein Sein government, the proper term
opposition parties and favor the ruling Union Solidarity and
for the Rohingyas is “Bengalis,” because the government
Development Party (USDP). In contrast to the 2010
considers most of them to be illegal immigrants from
parliamentary elections, Burma has said it will allow
Bangladesh. In July 2014, the Thein Sein government
international observers in 2015.
announced a Rakhine State Action Plan (RSAP) that would
allow some of the Rohingyas citizenship (conditional on
The State Department and the U.S. Agency for International
their accepting being classified as “Bengalis” and providing
Development (USAID) are working with the Thein Sein
sufficient evidence of long-term residence in Burma), but
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U.S. Relations with Burma: Key Issues for 2015
would resettle the majority of the Rohingyas into permanent
Obama’s New Initiatives
“resettlement camps.” The RSAP has been condemned by
the United Nations and various international organizations
The White House announced two new initiatives during the
for violating international human rights agreements.
President’s November 2014 visit to Burma—the opening of
a Peace Corps program in Burma, and a joint program
Political Prisoners
involving Denmark and Japan, as well as the International
Labour Organization (ILO), to improve Burma’s system of
When Burma’s ruling military junta handed power to the
labor administration and “foster strong relations among
Thein Sein government in April 2011, approximately 2,000
businesses, workers, civil society organizations, and the
political prisoners were imprisoned in Burma. Between
Government of Myanmar through a stakeholder
April 2011 and December 2013, President Thein Sein
consultative mechanism.”
pardoned or granted amnesty to over 1,100 political
prisoners to fulfill a pledge to release all political prisoners
Military-to-Military Relations
by the end of 2013. However, the Assistance Association
for Political Prisoners (Burma) asserts that as of April 2015,
The Obama Administration would like to enhance
at least 172 political prisoners remain in jail, and “296
engagement with the Tatmadaw. The National Defense
political activists are awaiting trial.” The status of political
Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 ( P.L. 113-291)
prisoners matters for U.S. policy in part because the
authorized Defense Department funding for “consultation,
termination of some U.S. sanctions on Burma still in place
education, and training” in Burma on the laws of armed
is contingent on the unconditional release of all political
conflict, civilian control of the military, defense institution
prisoners in Burma.
reform, humanitarian and disaster assistance, and
improvements in medical and health standards. The
Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act,
Thein Sein’s “11 Commitments” of 2012
2015 (P.L. 113-235) prohibits use of State Department
1. Allow the International Committee of the Red Cross access
funding for certain forms of military assistance to Burma,
to prisons.
including International Military Education and Training
2. Establish U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Office
(IMET) and the Foreign Military Finance (FMF) program.
in Burma.
President Thein Sein has reportedly pressed the United
3. Allow “blacklisted” people to enter or leave Burma.
States to enhance its engagement with the Tatmadaw. On
4. Initiate a process to assess the criminality of alleged political
June 25, 2014, the United Nationalities Federal Council of
prisoners.
Burma (UNFC), a coalition of ethnic organizations with
5. Establish a ceasefire in Kachin State and a sustainable political
armed militias, wrote to Secretary of State John Kerry and
solution of differences with ethnic minorities.
ex-Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel opposing any
6. Address the ethnic problems in Rakhine State.
military-to-military training programs in Burma. Aung San
Suu Kyi reportedly also urged President Obama not to
7. Allow international humanitarian assistance into conflict-
pursue greater military engagement until after the 2015
affected areas.
parliamentary elections. U.S. engagement with the
8. Sign the Additional Protocol to the U.N.’s Comprehensive
Tatmadaw is also controversial in part because of ongoing
Safeguards Agreement.
reports of serious human rights abuses by the Tatmadaw.
9. Stop arms trade with North Korea.
10. Combat human trafficking.
Implications for Congress
11. Make government more open and accountable.
The 114th Congress will have the opportunity to weigh in
on the conduct of U.S. policy toward Burma in 2015.
Thein Sein’s “11 Commitments”
Within 180 days of the enactment of the NDAA, the
Secretary of Defense is to provide Congress with a “report
During President Obama’s first visit to Burma in November
on military-to-military engagement between the United
2012, President Thein Sein made “11 commitments.” (see
States Armed Forces and the Burmese military.” P.L. 113-
shaded box). In a September 2014 Fact Sheet, the State
235 requires that the Secretary of State provide a report to
Department stated, “In a May 2013 visit to the United
Congress within 90 days of enactment “detailing steps
States, President Thein Sein and his senior ministers
taken by the United States and other international donors to
reaffirmed their intention to uphold these commitments,
protect human rights and address conflict in Rakhine State.”
though as of August 2014, many of them remain only
Congress may also choose to press the Obama
partially fulfilled.” Assessments of progress in fulfilling the
Administration for progress reports on Thein Sein’s “11
commitments vary, but according to one advocacy NGO,
commitments,” the status of political prisoners, and the
Thein Sein has fulfilled only one of the 11 commitments
prospects for free and fair parliamentary elections in 2015.
(signing the Additional Protocol), partially fulfilled 6, and
Michael F. Martin, mfmartin@crs.loc.gov, 7-2199
not fulfilled 3. The status of the last commitment—arms
trade with North Korea—is uncertain.
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