Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI): Mission Objectives for Directing the Program

CONTENTS SUMMARY ISSUE DEFINITION BACKGROUND A N D ANALYSIS Program D e s c r i p t i o n The R e a g a n ~ d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s C o n c e p t o f S t r a t e g i c D e f e n s e P h a s e d Deployment Review of P a s t L e g i s l a t i o n Shaping t h e Program Funding C o n g r e s s i o n a l Deployment C r i t e r i a The ABM T r e a t y E a r l y Deployment D e v e l o p m e n t of C o n g r e s s i o n a l G u i d a n c e Key I s s u e s What S h o u l d S D I ' s M i l i t a r y M i s s i o n O b j e c t i v e s Be? Is P u r s u i t o f Phased Deployment A p p r o p r i a t e a t t h i s Time? STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE ( S D I ) : DIRECTING THE PROGRAM TOWARD MISSION OBJECTIVES I n t h e FY88 C o n t i n u i n g R e s o l u t i o n (P.L. 100-202, S e c t i o n 8 1 1 6 ) t h e C o n g r e s s a p p r o v e d a s e t of g e n e r a l g o a l s f o r t h e SDI program. First, the S O 1 s h o u l d b e a l o n g - t e r m and r o b u s t r e s e a r c h program t o p r o v i d e t h e United S t a t e s w i t h a t e c h n o l o g i c a l hedge a g a i n s t any S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c e f f o r t s t o u n d e r m i n e U.S. n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . S e c o n d , t h e SDI s h o u l d p u r s u e s t r a t e g i c o p t i o n s t h a t c a n e n h a n c e U.S. l e v e r a g e i n arms n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union. T h i r d , t h e p r i m a r y e m p h a s i s o f SDI s h o u l d b e t o e x p l o r e p r o m i s i n g new t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t m i g h t h a v e l o n g - t e r m p o t e n t i a l t o defend a g a i n s t a responsive Soviet o f f e n s i v e n u c l e a r t h r e a t . And f o u r t h , f u t u r e p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s s h o u l d n o t b e s o a m b i t i o u s a s t o u n d e r c u t o t h e r i m p o r t a n t DOD p r o g r a m s . A t t a i n m e n t of t h e s e c o n d and t h i r d g o a l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n a f i s c a l l y c o n s t r a i n e d environment, s u g g e s t s some n a r r o w i n g o f t h e d e f e n s i v e m i s s i o n s SDI i s t o p u r s u e , a n d c l a r i f i c a t i o n o f t h e t i m e f r a m e s i n w h i c h SDI i s t o p u r s u e them. The t e c h n o l o g i c a l e m p h a s i s s u i t a b l e f o r e x p l o r i n g t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of d e f e n s e a g a i n s t a n a c c i d e n t a l l a u n c h of n u c l e a r weapons would b e c o n s i d e r a b l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n f o r a c o m p r e h e n s i v e d e f e n s e of t h e n a t i o n a g a i n s t a determined a t t a c k . S i m i l a r l y , t h e technological emphasis s u i t a b l e f o r exploring t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of defense a g a i n s t a Soviet t h r e a t i n t h e mid- t o l a t e - 1 9 9 0 s would b e d i f f e r e n t t h a n t h e e m p h a s i s s u i t a b l e t o a d d r e s s a post-2000 S o v i e t n u c l e a r t h r e a t . Of c o u r s e , m u l t i p l e m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s c a n be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a s i n g l e program. However, b e c a u s e c o m p e t i t i o n f o r f u n d s i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e w i t h t i m e , p r i o r i t i e s among them a p p e a r i n e v i t a b l e . The Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s a d o p t e d s p e c i f i c m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s f o r an i n i t i a l d e f e n s i v e system a s p a r t of a phased deployment s t r a t e g y f o r s t r a t e g i c defense. I f proven f e a s i b l e , t h e i n i t i a l system would b e d e s i g n e d t o d e s t r o y a c l a s s i f i e d p o r t i o n of S o v i e t n u c l e a r w a r h e a d s i n t h e e v e n t of a S o v i e t n u c l e a r a t t a c k on t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n b e l i e v e s t h a t p o s s e s s i n g s u c h a d e f e n s e would be s u f f i c i e n t i n t h e n e a r term t o d e t e r t h e S o v i e t s f r o m l a u n c h i n g a n a t t a c k . L a t e r p h a s e s o f d e f e n s e would be d e s i g n e d t o r e s p o n d t o S o v i e t c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s a n d i n c r e a s e o v e r a l l d e f e n s i v e c a p a b i l i t y . C u r r e n t l y , SDI i s f o c u s e d t o w a r d a 1993-1994 d e c i s i o n on w h e t h e r t o d e p l o y a n i n i t i a l d e f e n s i v e system. The C o n g r e s s i s c o n c e r n e d a b o u t t h i s a p p r o a c h on f o u r l e v e l s . S e r i o u s q u e s t i o n s remain about both t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y and f e a s i b i l i t y o f : ( 1 ) s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s , i n g e n e r a l ; ( 2 ) t h e phased deployment a p p r o a c h , ( 3 ) t h e Defense Department's m i l i t a r y mission requirements f o r t h e i n i t i a l p h a s e o f s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e ; and ( 4 ) t h e s p e c i f i c d e f e n s i v e s y s t e m b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d f o r t h i s i n i t i a l phase. I S S U E DEFINITION C u r r e n t l y , SDI e m b o d i e s s e v e r a l o b j e c t i v e s i n c l u d i n g : ( 1 ) t o p r o v i d e t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t w i l l make p o s s i b l e a k n o w l e d g e a b l e d e c i s i o n on whether t o d e p l o y advanced b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e s f o r v a r i o u s m i s s i o n s r a n g i n g from s i t e d e f e n s e t o comprehensive n a t i o n w i d e d e f e n s e ; ( 2 ) t o g i v e t h e United S t a t e s a hedge a g a i n s t S o v i e t advances i n b a l l i s t i c missile d e f e n s e ; and ( 3 ) t o p r o v i d e l e v e r a g e f o r arms c o n t r o l n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union. The manner a n d d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e a b o v e o b j e c t i v e s w i l l b e p u r s u e d i s l i k e l y t o b e d e t e r m i n e d l a r g e l y by a p o l i t i c a l c o n s e n s u s t h a t h a s b e g u n t o t a k e shape i n t h e Congress. Assuming n o m a j o r s h i f t i n p o l i c y t o d i s s o l v e t h e SDI r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m , t h e m a j o r u n r e s o l v e d i s s u e s i n p u r s u i t o f t h e a b o v e o b j e c t i v e s a r e what s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e o p t i o n s s h o u l d be e x p l o r e d a n d w h a t t h e i r p r i o r i t i e s s h o u l d be. BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS Program D e s c r i p t i o n A c c o r d i n g t o t h e Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , t h e S t r a t e g i c Defense I n i t i a t i v e (SDI) i s a r e s e a r c h and development program d e s i g n e d t o e x p l o r e t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t c o u l d be e x p l o i t e d t o defend t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and i t s a l l i e s f r o m n u c l e a r b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e a t t a c k . The SDI O r g a n i z a t i o n (SDIO) a t t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f D e f e n s e (DOD) h a s p r i m a r y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o n d u c t i n g t h e program. A p o r t i o n o f t h e work a l s o i s managed by t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y (DOE). The r e s e a r c h i s g e a r e d toward p r o v i d i n g enough t e c h n i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o a l l o w t h e P r e s i d e n t and t h e Congress t o d e c i d e i n t h e e a r l y - t o mid-1990s w h e t h e r t o p r o c e e d t o f u l l - s c a l e e n g i n e e r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d subsequent deployment, of a n i n i t i a l d e f e n s i v e system. According t o t h e Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , t h e program i s t o be c o n d u c t e d i n a manner c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a l l U.S. t r e a t y o b l i g a t i o n s . The p r o g r a m i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s t o p e r f o r m t h e f o l l o w i n g f u n c t i o n s : d e t e c t a n enemy l a u n c h ; f i n d a n d t r a c k enemy m i s s i l e s a n d n u c l e a r w a r h e a d s ; d i s c r i m i n a t e between r e a l warheads and d e c o y s ; aim d e f e n s i v e w e a p o n s a t t h e i r t a r g e t s ; a t t a c k a n d a s s e s s damage t o t h e s e t a r g e t s ; a n d command, c o n t r o l , a n d c o m m u n i c a t e w i t h t h e v a r i o u s c o m p o n e n t s of the defense. The means f o r e f f e c t i v e l y p r o d u c i n g , deploying, d e f e n d i n g , and m a i n t a i n i n g e l e m e n t s performing t h e above f u n c t i o n s are a l s o being explored. Emphasis i s p l a c e d on n o n - n u c l e a r t e c h n o l o g i e s , a 1 t h o u g h some n u c l e a r r e s e a r c h i s b e i n g c o n d u c t e d . T h e SDIO i s a l s o t a s k e d w i t h i n t e g r a t i n g t h e a b o v e s e p a r a t e technologies i n t o defensive systems, o r a r c h i t e c t u r e s . The a r c h i t e c t u r e s may v a r y i n b o t h t i m e f r a m e s a n d p u r p o s e . The i n t e g r a t i o n e f f o r t i n v o l v e s a n i t e r a t i v e p r o c e s s i n which t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e c o n s t a n t l y e v a l u a t e d f o r t h e i r p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o o v e r a l l system e f f e c t i v e n e s s . The a r c h i t e c t u r e s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o change o v e r t h e c o u r s e of t h e r e s e a r c h program a s s y s t e m r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e r e f i n e d and t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e advanced u n t i l a d e c i s i o n i s made t o f r e e z e some o f them t o p u r s u e e n g i n e e r i n g development and deployment. R e s e a r c h would c o n t i n u e on o t h e r p r o m i s i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s and s y s t e m c o n c e p t s . The u l t i m a t e g o a l i s t o d e v e l o p d e f e n s i v e s y s t e m s t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e m u l t i p l e Layers o f weapons t o s u c c e s s f u l l y a t t a c k enemy m i s s i l e s and w a r h e a d s a t d i f f e r e n t p o i n t s a l o n g t h e i r t r a j e c t o r i e s -- b o o s t , p o s t - b o o s t , m i d c o u r s e , and t e r m i n a l . During t h e b o o s t p h a s e , n u c l e a r w a r h e a d s a r e c a r r i e d aboard m i s s i l e s a s they ascend through t h e atmosphere. I n t h e p o s t - b o o s t p h a s e , t h e warheads ( u p t o 10 o r more p e r m i s s i l e ) and d e c o y s ( r a n g i n g from a few t o p e r h a p s hundreds p e r m i s s i l e ) s e p a r a t e From t h e b o o s t e r s and proceed t o t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n t h r o u g h t h e midcourse ( c o a s t i n g ) phase. I n t h e terminal phase, t h e warheads descend back t h r o u g h t h e a t m o s p h e r e t o t h e i r t a r g e t s . The b o o s t p h a s e i s c o n s i d e r e d t h e most a t t r a c t i v e phase t o d e f e n s e p l a n n e r s b e c a u s e d e s t r o y i n g a s i n g l e m i s s i l e would n e g a t e a l l o f i t s warheads and d e c o y s . The Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s Concept of S t r a t e g i c D e f e n s e P r e s i d e n t Reagan f i r s t a r t i c u l a t e d h i s v i s i o n o f a s t r a t e g i c b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e s y s t e m i n a s p e e c h on Mar. 2 3 , 1983, when h e c a l l e d For a world i n which n u c l e a r b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s c o u l d be r e n d e r e d " i m p o t e n t and o b s o l e t e . " S i n c e t h a t t i m e , many d i f f e r i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s c o n c e p t have been o f f e r e d . Some c r i t i c s o f t h e SDI program r e a s o n t h a t h i s v i s i o n would r e q u i r e a n impermeable d e f e n s i v e "shield." Anything l e s s would s t i l l r e s u l t i n u n t h i n k a b l e d e v a s t a t i o n from a n u c l e a r a t t a c k . Hence, t h e y a r g u e t h a t SDI i s w a s t e f u l and d a n g e r o u s b e c a u s e p e r f e c t i o n i s t e c h n i c a l l y i m p o s s i b l e and p u r s u i t of f a l s e e x p e c t a t i o n s t o t h e c o n t r a r y would l e a d t o a n e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e arms r a c e and a n e r o s i o n of t h e d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o f i r s t u s e of n u c l e a r weapons. On t h e o t h e r s i d e o f t h e s p e c t r u m , some SDI p r o p o n e n t s b e l i e v e t h a t a n y amount o f b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e i s b e t t e r t h a n no d e f e n s e . I f but a s i n g l e nuclear-armed m i s s i l e were l a u n c h e d t o w a r d s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , even by a c c i d e n t , o u r m i l i t a r y f o r c e s would be p o w e r l e s s a g a i n s t i t . C u r r e n t l y , o u r o n l y " d e f e n s e " i s t o d e t e r s u c h a l a u n c h w i t h t h e t h r e a t of Therefore, these s i m i l a r o r g r e a t e r r e t a l i a t i o n on a p o t e n t i a l a t t a c k e r . a d v o c a t e s a r g u e t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s must b e g i n now t o do w h a t e v e r i s p o s s i b l e t o p r o t e c t i t s c i t i z e n s from t h e t h r e a t o f n u c l e a r b a l l i s t i c missiles. T h e r e i s a broad r a n g e o f p o s i t i o n s f o r and a g a i n s t SDI between t h e s e views. Much o f t h e c u r r e n t d e b a t e c e n t e r s on w h e t h e r , i n t h e n e a r t e r m , SDI-derived d e f e n s e s c o u l d enhance d e t e r r e n c e . A c c o r d i n g t o SDIO, t h e g u i d i n g p r i n c i p l e b e h i n d SDI i s a d e s i r e t o d e v a l u e S o v i e t o f f e n s i v e n u c l e a r b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s by d e n y i n g S o v i e t m i l i t a r y p l a n n e r s t h e c e r t a i n t y of being a b l e t o achieve t h e i r m i l i t a r y o b j e c t i v e s w i t h t h e s e missiles. I n o t h e r words, t h e o p e r a t i o n a l g o a l of t h e SDI i s t o d e v i s e d e f e n s e s t o deny t h e S o v i e t s confidence of a "successful" f i r s t s t r i k e . T h i s c l e a r l y i m p l i e s a g o a l of s i g n i f i c a n t , y e t i m p e r f e c t , d e f e n s e s , whose s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s a r e dependent upon U.S. c a l c u l a t i o n s o f what c o n s t i t u t e s a s u c c e s s f u l S o v i e t f i r s t s t r i k e , and t h e measure of c o n f i d e n c e o f s u c c e s s r e q u i r e d by S o v i e t p l a n n e r s t o e n g a g e i n o n e . C r i t i c s of t h i s approach c h a r g e t h a t t h e r e a r e o t h e r less c o s t l y and d e s t a b i l i z i n g ways o f a c h i e v i n g s u c h d e t e r r e n c e . However, DOD b e l i e v e s t h a t s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s would p r o v i d e i n c e n t i v e t o t h e S o v i e t s t o e v e n t u a l l y d e c r e a s e t h e i r numbers o f o f f e n s i v e b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s t h r o u g h arms c o n t r o l and f o r c e r e s t r u c t u r i n g , t h e r e b y i n d u c i n g p r o g r e s s toward t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of P r e s i d e n t R e a g a n ' s v i s i o n . P h a s e d Deployment P l a n n e r s r e c o g n i z e d f r o m t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e SDI p r o g r a m t h a t no comprehensive, multi-layered, s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e of t h e Nation and i t s a l l i e s c o u l d be d e p l o y e d i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y . Deployment c o n c e p t s f o r p r o v e n t e c h n o l o g i e s have always been e v o l u t i o n a r y , w i t h t h e most m a t u r e technologies being deployed f i r s t . P o t e n t i a l l y more e f f e c t i v e y e t h i g h e r r i s k t e c h n o l o g i e s , l i k e beam w e a p o n s , c o u l d be a d d e d l a t e r i f t h e y p r o v e feasible. U n t i l mid-1987, h o w e v e r , no s c h e m e s h a d b e e n p r o p o s e d o f f i c i a l l y by WD t o a d d r e s s e v o l u t i o n a r y deployments. A t t h a t t i m e , t h e c o n c e p t of 1' p h a s e d d e p l o y m e n t t ' was i n t r o d u c e d . Phased deployment i s a r e f i n e m e n t of e v o l u t i o n a r y d e p l o y m e n t i n two k e y r e s p e c t s : ( 1 ) t h e p h a s e s would b e d e s i g n e d a s f u l l y o p e r a b l e d e f e n s i v e systems, and ( 2 ) t h e d e s i g n of e a c h p h a s e w o u l d be d r i v e n by p a r t i c u l a r e f f e c t i v e n e s s r e q u i r e m e n t s . According t o DOD, " e a c h p h a s e of d e p l o y m e n t would b e s i z e d a n d g i v e n s u f f i c i e n t c a p a b i l i t y t o a c h i e v e s p e c i f i c m i l i t a r y and p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s and l a y t h e groundwork f o r t h e deployment of s u b s e q u e n t phases." Of c o u r s e , e v e n a s i n g l e p h a s e c o u l d s t i l l n o t be d e p l o y e d a n d become o p e r a t i o n a l instantaneously. To d a t e , t h e J o i n t C h i e f s of S t a f f have developed m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r o n l y t h e f i r s t o f p e r h a p s t h r e e o r more p h a s e s of s t r a t e g i c defense. The r e q u i r e m e n t s , d e t a i l s o f w h i c h a r e c l a s s i f i e d , w e r e d r i v e n i n l a r g e p a r t by t h e t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e a n d t h e a n t i c i p a t e d S o v i e t o f f e n s i v e t h r e a t f o r t h e timeframe considered. Many f a c t o r s , arms c o n t r o l a g r e e m e n t s r e a c h e d p r i o r t o i n i t i a l i n c l u d i n g U.S.-Soviet deployment, c o u l d n e c e s s i t a t e a change i n t h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s . SDIO h a s d e s i g n e d a c a n d i d a t e " P h a s e One" S t r a t e g i c D e f e n s e S y s t e m (SDS) t o meet t h e f i r s t m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s . I t c o n s i s t s o f two l a y e r s o f k i n e t i c e n e r g y weapons ( w e a p o n s t h a t a r e d e s i g n e d t o d e s t r o y t h e i r t a r g e t s by t h e f o r c e o f i m p a c t ) a n d t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d s e n s o r s a n d b a t t l e management s y s t e m s . The f i r s t l a y e r o f weapons would he b a s e d i n s p a c e and would t a r g e t m i s s i l e s and p o s t - b o o s t v e h i c l e s p r i o r t o t h e i r r e l e a s i n g n u c l e a r warheads. The s e c o n d l a y e r would be g r o u n d - b a s e d a n d w o u l d t a r g e t warheads i n space b e f o r e t h e y begin t h e i r d e s c e n t through t h e atmosphere. On S e p t . 1 8 , 1 9 8 7 , t h e S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e a p p r o v e d t h e D e f e n s e Acquisition Board's (DAB'S) recommendation t h a t t h e technologies c o m p r i s i n g t h e e l e m e n t s o f P h a s e One e n t e r t h e t e c h n o l o g y d e m o n s t r a t i o n and v a l i d a t i o n (dem/val) phase of t h e d e f e n s e a c q u i s i t i o n p r o c e s s . S o m e t i m e s r e f e r r e d t o a s M i l e s t o n e I , t h i s p h a s e i s p r e s c r i b e d by DOD p o l i c y f o r a c q u i s i t i o n of a l l major s y s t e m s . According t o DOD, t h e p u r p o s e of t h e dem/val p h a s e i s t o e v a l u a t e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of e l e m e n t s of a p o t e n t i a l s t r a t e g i c defense system through a n a l y s i s , e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n , and s i m u l a t i o n . The s i x e l e m e n t s p r o c e e d i n g i n t o dem/val a r e : (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) t h e space-based interceptor (SBI ) , f o r m e r l y c a l l e d t h e space-based k i n e t i c k i l l v e h i c l e (SBKKV), t h e exo-atmospheric re-entry v e h i c l e i n t e r c e p t o r subsystem (ERIS), t h e b o o s t s u r v e i l l a n c e and t r a c k i n g s y s t e m (BSTS), t h e s p a c e - b a s e d s u r v e i l l a n c e and t r a c k i n g s y s t e m (SSTS), t h e ground-based s u r v e i l l a n c e and t r a c k i n g s y s t e m (GSTS), and t h e b a t t l e manage e n t a n d command, control, and c o m u n i c a t i o n s s y s t e m ( B M / C). "1 Phase One i s d e s i g n e d t o meet t h e s p e c i f i e d m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a p a r t i c u l a r timeframe beginning i n t h e late-1990s. Given t h e v a r i e t y and c o m p l e x i t y o f a s s u m p t i o n s t h a t must be made t o p l a n f o r s u c h a s y s t e m , t h e SDIO i s q u i c k t o p o i n t o u t t h a t i t s e l e m e n t s a r e s u b j e c t t o change. F a c t o r s t h a t c o u l d a f f e c t c h a n g e s i n c l u d e d e v e l o p m e n t s i n arms c o n t r o l , s u r p r i s e s i n t h e p a c e of t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v a n c e s , f u n d i n g c o n s t r a i n t s , and a r e a s s e s s m e n t of t h e S o v i e t t h r e a t . A d d i t i o n a l l y , e v e n i f a P h a s e One SDS s u c c e e d s i n m e e t i n g t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s , i t s e f f e c t i v e n e s s c o u l d d e c l i n e o v e r t i m e below m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s due t o S o v i e t c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s . The p l a n t o p u r s u e a phased deployment a p p r o a c h t o SDI a t t h i s t i m e r a i s e s a t l e a s t t h r e e important i s s u e s . F i r s t , a r e the mission requirements worthwhile? Second, would t h e c a n d i d a t e Phase One SDS be d e g r a d e d below m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s b e f o r e o r soon a f t e r i t i s f u l l y d e p l o y e d ? And, t h i r d , would a f o l l o r o n SDS ( i . e . , Phase Two) t o m a i n t a i n o r e x c e e d t h e i n i t i a l m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s i n a competitive e n v i r o n m e n t w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union be a v a i l a b l e when and i f needed? I n a b r i e f i n g t o CRS f o l l o w i n g t h e 1987 DAB r e v i e w o f t e c h n o l o g i e s , SDIO o f f i c i a l s s t a t e d t h a t DOD h a s chosen t o t h e s e i s s u e s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner: P h a s e One deal with t h e DAB w i l l r e v i e w Phase One a n n u a l l y t o c o n s i d e r i t s p r o g r e s s and a n y c h a n g e s t o t h e S o v i e t t h r e a t a s s e s s m e n t . The f i r s t of t h e s e r e v i e w s i s s c h e d u l e d t o b e g i n i n A p r i l 1988. Should t h e DAB d e t e r m i n e d u r i n g a n y r e v i e w t h a t t h e c a n d i d a t e Phase One would n o t be a d e q u a t e t o meet i t s mission requirements, changes i n t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s o r system d e s i g n c o u l d be made; SDIO w i l l a l l o c a t e a p p r o p r i a t e d SDI f u n d s t o m a i n t a i n a n R&D b a l a n c e between Phase One and l e s s m a t u r e , follow-on t e c h n o l o g i e s ( e . g . , l a s e r s and p a r t i c l e beams); and b e f o r e t h e e l e m e n t s o f Phase One c a n p r o c e e d t o f u l l s c a l e development ( M i l e s t o n e 111, e l e m e n t s o f a follow-on P h a s e Two must g a i n dem/val ( M i l e s t o n e I ) a p p r o v a l f r o m t h e S e c r e t a r y of Defense. I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e s t a t e m e n t s a b o v e r e f l e c t DOD p o l i c y r a t h e r t h a n l e g i s l a t i o n a n d c a n be c h a n g e d i n t e r n a l l y a t a n y time. ~ e v i e wo f P a s t L e g i s l a t i o n S h a p i n g t h e Program This s e c t i o n h i g h l i g h t s selected l e g i s l a t i v e a c t i o n having a d i r e c t b e a r i n g on t h e f o c u s a n d d i r e c t i o n o f t h e SDI r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m . It covers: ( 1 ) funding, ( 2 ) c r i t e r i a f o r a s s e s s i n g whether t o deploy s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s , ( 3 ) c o n f l i c t s between t h e SDI a n d t h e A n t i b a l l i s t i c Missile T r e a t y o f 1 9 7 2 , ( 4 ) c o n c e r n o v e r e a r l y d e p l o y m e n t , a n d ( 5 ) t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f program o b j e c t i v e s . Funding P r e s i d e n t Reagan h a s made SDI o n e o f h i s t o p d e f e n s e b u d g e t p r i o r i t i e s s i n c e FY85, when h e f i r s t r e q u e s t e d money f o r t h e p r o g r a m . Budget r e q u e s t s h a v e i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y f r o m $1.8 b i l l i o n i n FY85 t o $5.2 b i l l i o n i n FY88. The P r e s i d e n t ' s s u p p o r t i s f u r t h e r i n d i c a t e d by h i s p r o t e c t i o n of t h e SDI p r o g r a m f r o m a Gramm-Rudman-Hollings s e q u e s t r a t i o n i n FY87, c a u s i n g some o t h e r d e f e n s e p r o g r a m s t o i n c u r a l a r g e r s h a r e o f t h e s e q u e s t r a t i o n burden. While s u p p o r t i n g t h e program, t h e Congress h a s c u t t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s request every year. N o n e t h e l e s s , f u n d i n g h a s i n c r e a s e d f r o m $1.4 b i l l i o n i n FY85 t o $ 3 . 6 b i l l i o n i n FY88. ( F o r more i n f o r m a t i o n o n SDI f u n d i n g , s e e CRS I s s u e B r i e f 8 5 1 7 0 . ) The b u l k of SDI f u n d i n g i s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e DOD r e s e a r c h , d e v e l o p m e n t , t e s t , and e v a l u a t i o n (RDTdE) b u d g e t f u n c t i o n . The SDI RDTdE i s p r e s e n t e d t o C o n g r e s s i n f i v e program e l e m e n t s : (1) budget s u r v e i l l a n c e , a c q u i s i t i o n , t r a c k i n g , a n d k i l l a s s e s s m e n t (SATKA); ( 2 ) k i n e t i c e n e r g y weapons (KEW); ( 3 ) d i r e c t e d e n e r g y weapons (DEW); ( 4 ) s y s t e m s c o n c e p t s a n d b a t t l e management (SC/BM); ( 5 ) a n d s u r v i v a b i l i t y , l e t h a l i t y , a n d key t e c h n o l o g i e s (SLKT). Thus f a r , t h e C o n g r e s s g e n e r a l l y h a s c h o s e n t o make r e d u c t i o n s f r o m t o t a l p r o g r a m f u n d i n g r e q u e s t s , l e a v i n g t h e s p e c i f i c a l l o c a t i o n t o DOD. Some e x c e p t i o n s h a v e b e e n made a t t h e project level. F o r e x a m p l e , i n FY88 t h e C o n g r e s s s e t a s i d e $27 m i l l i o n f o r a c l a s s i f i e d l a s e r p r o g r a m a n d $15 m i l l i o n f o r r e s e a r c h i n t o m e d i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s of t h e f r e e e l e c t r o n l a s e r . C o n g r e s s i o n a l Deployment C r i t e r i a I n t h e FY86 d e f e n s e a u t h o r i z a t i o n b i l l , t h e Congress adopted l e g i s l a t i o n e s t a b l i s h i n g c r i t e r i a f o r making f u t u r e d e c i s i o n s o n w h e t h e r t o d e p l o y a d v a n c e d b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e s (P.L. 99-145, S e c t i o n 2 2 2 ) . T h e c r i t e r i a a r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e p r o p o s e d by Ambassador P a u l H. N i t z e , S p e c i a l A d v i s e r t o t h e P r e s i d e n t on a r m s c o n t r o l matters, i n a n a d d r e s s i n P h i l a d e l p h i a on Feb. 2 0 , 1985. The l e g i s l a t i o n s t a t e s t h a t : A s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e system developed a s a consequence o f RDTdE c o n d u c t e d on t h e SDI p r o g r a m may n o t be d e p l o y e d i n w h o l e o r i n part unless: (1) t h e P r e s i d e n t d e t e r m i n e s and c e r t i f i e s t o Congress i n writing that: (a) t h e system i s s u r v i v a b l e ( i . e . , t h e s y s t e m i s a b l e t o maintain a s u f f i c i e n t degree of e f f e c t i v e n e s s t o f u l f i l l i t s m i s s i o n , even i n t h e f a c e o f d e t e r m i n e d a t t a c k s a g a i n s t i t ) ; and (b) t h e s y s t e m i s c o s t e f f e c t i v e a t t h e margin t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e system i s a b l e t o m a i n t a i n i t s effectiveness against the offense a t l e s s cost than i t would t a k e t o d e v e l o p o f f e n s i v e c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s and p r o l i f e r a t e t h e b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s n e c e s s a r y t o overcome i t ; and (2) f u n d i n g f o r t h e deployment of such s y s t e m h a s been s p e c i f i c a l l y a u t h o r i z e d by l e g i s l a t i o n e n a c t e d a f t e r t h e d a t e on which t h e P r e s i d e n t makes t h e c e r t i f i c a t i o n t o Congress. I n i t s r e p o r t on t h e FY88 DOD a u t h o r i z a t i o n b i l l (S.Rept. 100-571, t h e S e n a t e Armed S e r v i c e s C o m n i t t e e s t a t e d t h a t i t saw no e v i d e n c e t h u s f a r t o s u g g e s t t h a t a n y of t h e s e c r i t e r i a have been met. The ABM T r e a t y The A n t i b a l l i s t i c M i s s i l e (ABM) T r e a t y of 1972 p r o h i b i t s t e s t i n g o f s y s t e m s o r components t h a t a r e s e a - , a space-, o r mobile land-based. The Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o n t e n d s t h a t t h e T r e a t y d o e s a l l o w s u c h t e s t i n g f o r components based on p h y s i c a l p r i n c i p l e s n o t i n c o r p o r a t e d lasers). Most o t h e r s , i n c l u d i n g S e n a t e i n ABM s y s t e m s i n 1972 ( e . g . , Armed S e r v i c e s C o n i t t e e Chairman Nunn, c o n t e n d t h a t t h i s i s n o t t h e c a s e and r u n s c o u n t e r t o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t h a t h a s been m a i n t a i n e d f o r t h e l a s t 16 y e a r s . ABM The d i s p u t e o v e r T r e a t y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n g e n e r a t e d a s u b s t a n t i a l d e b a t e i n t h e 100th Congress. I n a compromise worked o u t between t h e White House and t h e C o n g r e s s , t h e program w i l l b e c o n d u c t e d a t l e a s t t h r o u g h FY88 i n a manner c o m p l i a n t w i t h t h e t r a d i t i o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n above. The N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e A u t h o r i z a t i o n A c t (P.L. 100-180) a p p r o v e s f u n d i n g o n l y f o r t h o s e t e s t s p l a n n e d f o r and s u b m i t t e d t o t h e Congress i n t h e s p r i n g of 1987. F u r t h e r m o r e , no f u n d s may be used t o p u r c h a s e h a r d w a r e i n FY88 f o r l a t e r t e s t s p l a n n e d by SDIO t h a t would n o t t h a t comply w i t h t h e t r a d i t i o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e Treaty. Given t h e n a t u r e o f t h e compromise, t h e p o t e n t i a l e x i s t s f o r t h e i s sue t o r e s u r f a c e during del i b e r a t ions over t h e n a t i o n a l defense a u t h o r i z a t i o n s f o r FY89. I n an a t t e m p t t o e a s e t h i s c o n f r o n t a t i o n , S e c r e t a r y of S t a t e George S h u l t z s t a t e d p u b l i c l y i n mid-December t h a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n p l a n s t o d e a l w i t h t h e t e s t i n g i s s u e on a case-by-case b a s i s , r a t h e r t h a n c o n t i n u e t o p u r s u e an a l t e r n a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e Treaty. Without e l a b o r a t i n g on t h e a c t u a l p r o c e s s , S h u l t z s a i d t h a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n w i l l seek s e p a r a t e congressional approval of c o n t r o v e r s i a l SDI t e s t s a s n e c e s s a r y . ( F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n on ABM T r e a t y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , s e e CRS Report 87-164 S.) C r i t i c s of t h e Reagan ~ d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s a t t e m p t s t o broaden t h e T r e a t y ' s r e s t r i c t i o n s o n SDI R&D f a l l i n t o two camps: ( 1 ) t h o s e who a g r e e w i t h t h e p r i n c i p l e of t h e T r e a t y ( d e t e r r e n c e based on t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e t h r e a t of o f f e n s i v e r e t a l i a t i o n ) and r e j e c t t h e n o t i o n t h a t comprehensive s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s c a n e v e r be s t a b i l i z i n g ; a n d ( 2 ) t h o s e who a r e w i l l i n g t o e x a m i n e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of s t a b i l i z i n g s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s , but a r e n o t w i l l i n g t o g o s o f a r a s t o e r o d e t h e ABM T r e a t y a t t h i s time i n c a s e t h e SDI f a i l s . The l a t t e r g r o u p would h a v e t o be c o n v i n c e d of t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a new a n d b e t t e r s o l u t i o n t o p r e v e n t i n g t h e u s e o f n u c l e a r weapons by t h e s u p e r p o w e r s b e f o r e t h e y would a g r e e t o d i s c a r d t h e o l d o n e . The u l t i m a t e SDI o b j e c t i v e o f d e f e n s i v e d e t e r r e n c e r u n s c o u n t e r t o t h e a p p r o a c h a n d p h i l o s o p h y of t h e ABM T r e a t y . Policymakers f a c e t h e d i l e m m a t h a t p r e s e r v i n g t h e T r e a t y t h r o u g h o u t t h e SDI r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m means f a c i n g g r e a t e r u n c e r t a i n t y o v e r t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f s t a b i l i z i n g a n d s u r v i v a b l e s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s , w h i l e a b r o g a t i n g t h e T r e a t y now t o r e d u c e t h a t u n c e r t a i n t y c o u l d r e s u l t i n a s i t u a t i o n w i t h n o t r e a t y a n d no defenses t o replace it. A t present, the risks inherent i n e i t h e r m o d i f y i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f o r a b r o g a t i n g t h e ABM T r e a t y a r e not w e l l understood, r e s u l t i n g i n a c a l l from a m a j o r i t y of t h e Congress f o r a c a u t i o u s approach t o t h i s issue. E a r l y Deployment The p r o p o s a l f o r e a r l y d e p l o y m e n t h a s e v o k e d f o r m i d a b l e c r i t i c i s m i n t h e Congress. S t r i c t l y s p e a k i n g , " e a r l y deployment" refers to a d e p l o y m e n t of s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m a d e c i s i o n t o p r o c e e d p r i o r t o t h e e a r l y 1 9 9 0 s ( t h e t i m e f r a m e p r o p o s e d f o r s u c h a d e c i s i o n when SDI was e s t a b l i s h e d ) . The i d e a , s u p p o r t e d by f o r m e r S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e C a s p a r W e i n b e r g e r , r e c e i v e d a g r e a t d e a l o f a t t e n t i o n a f t e r a December 1 9 8 6 G e o r g e C. M a r s h a l l I n s t i t u t e r e p o r t c o n c l u d e d t h a t a t h r e e - l a y e r e d s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e b a s e d o n m a t u r e k i n e t i c e n e r g y weapons c o u l d n e g a t e o v e r 90% o f S o v i e t n u c l e a r w a r h e a d s . The s t u d y e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h i s c a p a b i l i t y c o u l d be a t t a i n e d 7 y e a r s from a d e c i s i o n t o d e p l o y t h e s y s t e m a t a c o s t o f a b o u t $120 b i l l i o n . Today, m o s t e x p e r t s a g r e e t h a t t h e I n s t i t u t e ' s f i n d i n g s a r e b a s e d on o v e r l y o p t i m i s t i c a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t U.S. t e c h n i c a l c a p a b i l i t y and t h e S o v i e t n u c l e a r t h r e a t . Nonetheless, t h e r e r e m a i n a number of p r o p o n e n t s o f v a r i o u s e a r l y d e p l o y m e n t c o n c e p t s . C r i t i c s of e a r l y deployment i n c l u d e n o t o n l y t h o s e a g a i n s t t h e p u r s u i t of s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s g e n e r a l l y , b u t some SDI p r o p o n e n t s a s w e l l . Many p r o p o n e n t s v i e w c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f e a r l y d e p l o y m e n t o f c o m p r e h e n s i v e s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s as p r e m a t u r e b e c a u s e n o t e n o u g h k n o w l e d g e e x i s t s a b o u t t h e p o t e n t i a l o f some c r i t i c a l t e c h n o l o g i e s l i k e b a t t l e management s o f t w a r e , s e n s o r s f o r d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , a n d beam weapons. Additionally, most a n a l y s t s b e l i e v e t h a t a n a l y s i s of t h e s t r a t e g i c p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s of i n t r o d u c i n g s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s i n t o t h e N a t i o n ' s f o r c e s t r u c t u r e is c u r r e n t l y inadequate. Too many q u e s t i o n s r e m a i n o v e r what S o v i e t r e a c t i o n t o U.S. s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s m i g h t b e , a n d w h a t t h a t would mean f o r arms c o n t r o l and c r i s i s s t a b i l i t y . With t h e a d v e n t of t h e phased deployment c o n c e p t and t h e r e s i g n a t i o n of S e c r e t a r y Weinberger, t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s b a c k e d away f r o m a d v o c a t i n g a d e c i s i o n t o begin deployment e a r l i e r t h a n o r i g i n a l l y envisioned. The SDIO i s c u r r e n t l y p u r s u i n g a c o u r s e t o a l l o w f o r a d e c i s i o n a r o u n d 1993-1994 on w h e t h e r t o b e g i n i n i t i a l d e p l o y m e n t s o f t h e P h a s e One s y s t e m . Nonetheless, t h e Congress h a s a c t e d t o p r e c l u d e a n y f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n of e a r l y deployment of non-ABM T r e a t y c o m p l i a n t d e f e n s e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e Congress p r o h i b i t e d : t h e deployment of any a n t i - b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s y s t e m u n l e s s i t i s s p e c i f i c a l l y a u t h o r i z e d by law. t h e u s e o f FY88 f u n d s t o s u p p o r t f u l l - s c a l e e n g i n e e r i n g development o r deployment o f t h e Space-based I n t e r c e p t o r , t h e most m a t u r e of t h e space-based weapons and a c a n d i d a t e f o r Phase One deployment; development o r t e s t i n g o f any ABM s y s t e m o r component e x c e p t t h o s e planned f o r and d e s c r i b e d t o t h e C o n g r e s s i n t h e A p r i l 1987 SDIO r e p o r t ; t h e u s e of t h e N a t i o n a l T e s t Bed a s a b a t t l e manager f o r a n e a r l y d e f e n s i v e s y s t e m ; and p u r s u i t of a n i n t e r i m Advanced Launch System (ALS) t o s u p p o r t deployment of space-based e l e m e n t s o f a s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s y s t e m i n t h e e a r l y - t o mid-1990s timeframe. Development o f Congressional Guidance U n t i l r e c e n t l y , t h e SDI p h i l o s o p h i c a l and p o l a r i z e d . o v e r t h e p r o s p e c t s and wisdom t h e absence of c l e a r s t r a t e g i c t h e program. d e b a t e i n t h e Congress h a s been l a r g e l y Key r e a s o n s f o r t h i s i n c l u d e d i s a g r e e m e n t o f p u r s u i n g s t r a t e g i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e s and p o l i c y and m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s f o r With t h e r e c e n t a r t i c u l a t i o n of phased deployment, and p a r t i c u l a r l y of Phase One, t h e Congress was f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e p r o v i d e d w i t h t a n g i b l e i n d i c a t i o n s of where t h e program c u r r e n t l y i s headed. Timeframes f o r development and deployment d e c i s i o n m i l e s t o n e s were a l s o c l a r i f i e d . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e d e b a t e o v e r SDI p o l i c y d i r e c t i v e s and f u n d i n g i s becoming more f o c u s e d . While major d i f f e r e n c e s o f o p i n i o n r e m a i n , e f f o r t s t o e s t a b l i s h c o n g r e s s i o n a l g u i d a n c e on SDI programs o b j e c t i v e s h a v e begun. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s t r i c t u r e s c i t e d a b o v e , t h e Congress a d o p t e d a S e n a t e b i p a r t i s a n measure ( ~ t e v e n s f ~ r o x m i r e a) s p a r t of t h e d e f e n s e a p p r o p r i a t i o n s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e c o n t i n u i n g r e s o l u t i o n f o r FY88 (P.L. 100-202, S e c t i o n 8 1 1 6 ) . I t s t a t e s t h a t i t i s t h e s e n s e of C o n g r e s s t h a t : (1) in order t o maintain the basis f o r strong deterrence, t h e SDI s h o u l d be a long-term and r o b u s t r e s e a r c h program t o p r o v i d e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w i t h expanded o p t i o n s f o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a S o v i e t b r e a k o u t from t h e 1972 ABM T r e a t y and t o r e s p o n d t o o t h e r f u t u r e S o v i e t arms i n i t i a t i v e s t h a t might pose a g r a v e t h r e a t t o U.S. n a t i ~ n a ls e c u r i t y ; e x p a n d i n g p o t e n t i a l U.S. s t r a t e g i c o p t i o n s , t h e SDI r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m c a n e n h a n c e U.S. leverage i n the U.S.-Soviet arms r e d u c t i o n n e g o t i a t i o n s and s e r v e a s a safeguard f o r ensuring t h a t n e g o t i a t e d agreements a r e kept ; by f u t u r e r e s e a r c h p l a n s and b u d g e t s f o r e s t a b l i s h e d , using r e a l i s t i c projections r e s o u r c e s i n t h e o v e r a l l d e f e n s e budget u n d e r c u t o t h e r i m p o r t a n t DOD programs; and SDI must b e of a v a i l a b l e and must n o t i n matching r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s a g a i n s t a v a i l a b l e r e s o u r c e s , t h e primary emphasis of SDI s h o u l d be t o e x p l o r e p r o m i s i n g new t e c h n o l o g i e s , s u c h a s d i r e c t e d e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s , which might have long-term potential t o defend against a responsive Soviet offensive nuclear threat. E a r l i e r , b u t c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e above o b j e c t i v e s , t h e S e n a t e Armed S e r v i c e s Committee (S.Rept. 100-57) comnended SDIO f o r i t s p u r s u i t o f t h e ERIS n o n - n u c l e a r , ground-launched i n t e r c e p t o r . The c o m n i t t e e s t a t e d t h a t i t r e g a r d e d t h e ERIS program a s a n a d e q u a t e hedge a g a i n s t a p o t e n t i a l n e a r - t e r m S o v i e t break-out o f t h e ABM T r e a t y . The C o n g r e s s d i d n o t s p e c i f y g u i d a n c e on what i s r e q u i r e d of t h e SDI program t o meet t h e o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e l e g i s l a t i o n . For example, i t i s n o t s p e c i f i e d what p o t e n t i a l s t r a t e g i c o p t i o n s s h o u l d be p u r s u e d t o r e s p o n d t o S o v i e t i n i t i a t i v e s o r t o enhance l e v e r a g e f o r arms c o n t r o l . The l a n g u a g e a l s o d o e s n o t r e s o l v e t h e d e b a t e o v e r t h e d e g r e e t o which t h e SDI s h o u l d i n t e g r a t e c e r t a i n t e c h n o l o g y e f f o r t s t o e x p l o r e p o t e n t i a l f u t u r e systems w i t h p a r t i c u l a r d e f e n s i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s . Some Members b e l i e v e t h a t d r a m a t i c improvements t o U.S. n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y can be a t t a i n e d o n l y through c a r e f u l l y considered e v o l u t i o n a r y d e p l o y m e n t s of s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e . O t h e r Members, however, c o n t e n d t h a t SDI s h o u l d n o t p u r s u e development of d e f e n s i v e s y s t e m s i n t h e n e a r term. They b e l i e v e t h a t t h e emphasis o f t h e program s h o u l d be on e x p l o r i n g t r u l y revolutionary technologies, l i k e beam w e a p o n s a n d interactive discrimination devices. I n t h e i r view, s h o u l d any o f t h e s e e f f o r t s e v e n t u a l l y l e a d t o s e r i o u s p r o s p e c t s f o r making d r a m a t i c improvements t o U.S. n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y , t h e n , and o n l y t h e n , should concepts f o r i n c o r p o r a t i n g t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s i n t o d e f e n s i v e s y s t e m s be c o n s i d e r e d . S h o r t o f t h a t , t h e program s h o u l d p r o v i d e a s t r o n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l b a s e t o s u p p o r t p o t e n t i a l r e a c t i o n s t o S o v i e t a c t i o n s and an i n c e n t i v e f o r arms c o n t r o 1. Key I s s u e s F o l l o w i n g i s a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n of s e l e c t e d i s s u e s r e l e v a n t t o f o r m u l a t i n g c o n g r e s s i o n a l l y approved m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s and d i r e c t i n g t h e SDI toward t h o s e o b j e c t i v e s . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , i t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e r e a r e a t l e a s t f o u r l e v e l s of t h e SDI d e b a t e . Serious questions r e m a i n a b o u t b o t h t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y and f e a s i b i l i t y o f : ( 1 ) s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s , i n g e n e r a l ; ( 2 ) t h e phased deployment a p p r o a c h t o i n t r o d u c i n g and i n c r e a s i n g t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s ; ( 3 ) t h e m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s approved by t h e J o i n t C h i e f s o f S t a f f f o r P h a s e One; and ( 4 ) t h e s p e c i f i c c a n d i d a t e a r c h i t e c t u r e f o r m e e t i n g P h a s e One requirements. What S h o u l d S D I ' s Military M i s s i o n O b j e c t i v e s Be? A r d e n t o p p o n e n t s o f s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s r e j e c t t h e need f o r m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s t o g u i d e t h e program. However, i f one b e l i e v e s t h a t either: ( 1 ) development and e v e n t u a l deployment o f s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s a r e w o r t h y o f s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n , o r ( 2 ) t h e g r e a t e s t arms c o n t r o l l e v e r a g e t o be g a i n e d from t h e SDI i s from a program w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r t e c h n o l o g i c a l f o c u s , t h e n i t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e SDI s h o u l d be d i r e c t e d by s p e c i f i c m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s r a t h e r t h a n be a n open-ended r e s e a r c h program. The f o r m e r b e l i e f r e q u i r e s a n SDI program e f f e c t i v e i n p r o v i d i n g t h e t e c h n i c a l knowledge r e q u i r e d t o s u p p o r t a d e c i s i o n on w h e t h e r t o d e p l o y b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e s a t some f u t u r e t i m e . The l a t t e r p r e s u p p o s e s t h a t t o maximize t h e i n c e n t i v e s f o r r e a c h i n g a p a r t i c u l a r arms c o n t r o l a g r e e m e n t , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s must f i r s t show r e s o l v e t o p u r s u e a u n i l a t e r a l means o f a d d r e s s i n g t h e o b j e c t of negotiations. T h e s e l a t t e r two p h i l o s o p h i e s c a n , i n t h e n e a r t e r m , l e a d t o i n d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e programs. I n f a c t , t h e y need n o t be m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e and c o u l d b o t h b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a s i n g l e program w i t h m u l t i p l e m i s s i o n objectives. The m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s r e q u i r e d by b o t h p h i l o s o p h i e s c o u l d be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by, among o t h e r t h i n g s , t h e a s s e t s t o be d e f e n d e d , t h e t h r e a t t h a t needs t o be addressed, t h e l e v e l of e f f e c t i v e n e s s r e q u i r e d of t h e d e f e n s e , and t h e t i m e f r a m e s i n v o l v e d . The a s s e t s t o b e d e f e n d e d c o u l d i n c l u d e , f o r example, U.S. and a l l i e d r e t a l i a t o r y m i s s i l e s i t e s , n a t i o n a l command a u t h o r i t i e s , p o p u l a t i o n s , and i n d u s t r i a l c e n t e r s . The t h r e a t c o u l d be d e f i n e d i n t e r m s of b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e t y p e s , numbers, a n d The l e v e l of l o c a t i o n s , a s w e l l a s t h e i r probable t a r g e t i n g s t r a t e g i e s . e f f e c t i v e n e s s r e q u i r e d would depend on t h e b a l a n c e s o u g h t between t h e d e t e r r e n t and p r o t e c t i o n v a l u e s of t h e d e f e n s e . And, t h e t i m e f r a m e s i n v o l v e d would depend on a number o f f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g U.S. and S o v i e t t e c h n i c a l c a p a b i l i t i e s , a v a i l a b i l i t y of r e s o u r c e s , and w i l l i n g n e s s t o p u r s u e arms c o n t r o l . C u r r e n t l y , t h e SDI i s p u r s u i n g a phased a p p r o a c h t o a m u l t i - l a y e r e d , nationwide defense. Assuming an e a r l y 1990s n a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n t o d o s o , SDIO b e l i e v e s t h a t deployment of t h e f i r s t p h a s e c o u l d b e g i n sometime b e f o r e t h e end of t h e c e n t u r y . C o n c e p t u a l l y , s u b s e q u e n t p h a s e s would be added t o r e n d e r t h e SDS more e f f e c t i v e o v e r t i m e a g a i n s t a r e s p o n s i v e Soviet threat. The i n i t i a l p h a s e s o f s u c h a s y s t e m would b e d e s i g n e d t o have a h i g h e r d e t e r r e n t t h a n p r o t e c t i o n v a l u e a g a i n s t a g l o b a l n u c l e a r war. I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e i n i t i a l p h a s e s of d e f e n s e would b e d e s i g n e d t o d e s t r o y enough n u c l e a r warheads t o deny t h e c o n f i d e n c e o f S o v i e t m i l i t a r y p l a n n e r s i n meeting t h e i r n u c l e a r a t t a c k o b j e c t i v e s . However, s h o u l d t h e S o v i e t s s t i l l launch a determined a t t a c k , t h e s e i n i t i a l defenses could n o t p r e v e n t c a t a s t r o p h e f o r t h e United S t a t e s . However, t h e s y s t e m s u p p o s e d l y would be f l e x i b l e enough t o p r o t e c t t h e United S t a t e s from a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l a c c i d e n t a l o r t h i r d - p a r t y s t r i k e . Most f u r t h e r d e t a i l s a b o u t S D I ' s o p e r a t i o n a l m i l i t a r y mission o b j e c t i v e s a r e c l a s s i f i e d . While c o n g r e s s i o n a l c o n s e n s u s i s l a c k i n g o v e r what t h e m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e SDI s h o u l d b e , t h e r e a p p e a r s t o be a great d e a l o f o p p o s i t i o n t o a t l e a s t t h e t i m i n g e n v i s i o n e d by t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r deployment o f a Phase One SDS. Many Members c o n t e n d t h a t t h e t e c h n o l o g y h a s n o t p r o g r e s s e d f a r enough, a n d , g i v e n t h e d r a m a t i c s h i f t i n s t r a t e g i c p o l i c y r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e SDI, i t s p r e c i s e m i l i t a r y m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s r e q u i r e more c a r e f u l c o n s i d e r a t i o n p r i o r t o a n y commitment t o a s c h e d u l e t o p r o c e e d beyond r e s e a r c h . I t appears t h a t i n d e l i b e r a t i n g t h e p r o p e r o b j e c t i v e s f o r SDI, t h e Congress w i l l want t o c o n s i d e r , among o t h e r t h i n g s , f i s c a l c o n s t r a i n t s , t h e f a t e o f t h e ABM T r e a t y , t h e N i t z e c r i t e r i a , and w h e t h e r b a s i n g weapons i n s p a c e s h o u l d b e p r e c l u d e d . Is P u r s u i t of Phased Deployment A p p r o p r i a t e a t t h i s Time? S u c c e s s of t h e phased development and deployment c o n c e p t f o r s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e depends on a number o f f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of r e s o u r c e s , p o l i t i c a l r e s o l v e , and S o v i e t r e s p o n s e s . One g o a l o f t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s phased deployment a p p r o a c h i s t o a t t a i n an arms agreement between t h e United S t a t e s and t h e S o v i e t Union t o d r a m a t i c a l l y r e d u c e o f f e n s i v e b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e f o r c e s and g r a d u a l l y r e p l a c e them w i t h comprehensive s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s . Absent s u c h an a g r e e m e n t , however, t h e SDI might r e s u l t i n an u n c o n s t r a i n e d arms r a c e with t h e United S t a t e s rushing t o outpace Soviet attempts t o counter a u n i l a t e r a l l y d e p l o y e d SDS. T h i s c o u l d p l a c e enormous t e c h n o l o g i c a l and economic b u r d e n s on b o t h n a t i o n s o v e r an i n d e f i n i t e p e r i o d o f t i m e . The p r o s p e c t s f o r t h e s e b u r d e n s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y t r o u b l i n g t o many Members i n l i g h t of i n c r e a s i n g p r e s s u r e s on t h e Congress t o l i m i t d e f e n s e spending. I n t h e a b s e n c e of a growing d e f e n s e b u d g e t , t h e c o m p e t i t i o n b o t h between r e s e a r c h and development d o l l a r s w i t h i n t h e SDI program ( f o r which a b a l a n c e i s r e q u i r e d t o p r e p a r e f o r s u b s e q u e n t p h a s e s ) , and between SDI and o t h e r a r e a s i n DOD, w i l l become p r o g r e s s i v e l y more i n t e n s e . P r o p o n e n t s o f t h e phased deployment a p p r o a c h be1 i e v e t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c a n m a i n t a i n t h e r e q u i r e d edge i n t e c h n o l o g y o v e r t h e S o v i e t Union o r any o t h e r a g g r e s s o r t h a t a t t e m p t s t o t h r e a t e n t h e United S t a t e s w i t h nuclear b a l l i s t i c missiles in the future. Furthermore, they b e l i e v e t h a t economic r e s o u r c e s c a n be managed t o meet what i s , i n t h e i r view, a n a t i o n a l o b l i g a t i o n f o r t h e United S t a t e s t o defend i t s c i t i z e n s a g a i n s t a t t a c k by n u c l e a r b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s . C r i t i c s of p h a s e d d e p l o y m e n t , however, contend t h a t S o v i e t c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s t o phases of a n SDS w i l l become a v a i l a b l e s o o n e r and a t l e s s c o s t t h a n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c a n compensate f o r them. Consequently, t h e y view t h e i n i t i a t i o n of phased deployment a s i r r e v e r s i b l y g e n e r a t i n g an o f f e n s i v e - d e f e n s i v e arms c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union t h a t would l e a d t o a more d a n g e r o u s , l e s s s t a b l e m i l i t a r y b a l a n c e t h a n would e x i s t i n t h e a b s e n c e of s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e s . While phased deployment might be a r e a s o n a b l e a p p r o a c h t o s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e , i t c a n be a r g u e d t h a t o r i e n t a t i o n o f t h e SDI program toward a s p e c i f i c P h a s e One i s p r e m a t u r e . Some would a r g u e t h a t S D I ' s c h a r t e r i s t o e x p l o r e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f a v a r i e t y o f t e c h n o l o g i e s and a p p r o a c h e s t o s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e u n t i l a t l e a s t t h e e a r l y - t o mid-1990s. I n t h i s view, o n l y a f t e r t h a t t i m e would i t be a p p r o p r i a t e t o a r t i c u l a t e t h e f e a s i b l e s t r a t e g i c defense o p t i o n s , i f any, t o address p a r t i c u l a r Soviet t h r e a t s it. Should p h a s e s o f s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e be d e s i g n e d a t t h a t t i m e , t h e y v e r y l i k e l y would be s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n what i s p l a n n e d t o d a y . T h i s a p p r o a c h might a f f o r d more t i m e t o a s s e s s more f u l l y t h e s t r a t e g i c i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p u r s u i n g d e f e n s e s , a s w e l l a s t o r e s o l v e r e l e v a n t arms c o n t r o l i s s u e s w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union. However, c r i t i c s o f t h i s a p p r o a c h a r g u e t h a t i t c o u l d r e s u l t i n a l o s s of d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l momentum t h a t would p r o v e f a t a l t o t h e program. FOR ADDITIOHAL READIUG U.S. L i b r a r y of C o n g r e s s . C o n g r e s s i o n a l R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e . A r m s c o n t r o l : n e g o t i a t i o n s t o l i m i t d e f e n s e and s p a c e weapons, by S t e v e n H i l d r e t h . [ W a s h i n g t o n ] 1988. (Updated r e g u l a r l y ) CRS I s s u e B r i e f 86073 ----- D i r e c t e d e n e r g y weapons r e s e a r c h : s t a t u s and DiMaggio. [ W a s h i n g t o n ] Aug. 3 0 , 1985. 47 p. CRS Report 85-183 SPR -- -- - P o t e n t i a l o f f e n s i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s o f SDI s p a c e weapons, DiMaggio. [Washington] O c t . 7, 1987. 14 p. CRS Report 87-807 SPR outlook, by Cosmo by Cosmo ----- The S t r a t e g i c Defense I n i t i a t i v e : a model f o r e s t i m a t i n g l a u n c h c o s t s , by Cosmo DiMaggio and Robert L. C i v i a k . [Washington] June 4, 1987. 7 p. CRS R e p o r t 87-475 SPR ----- The S t r a t e g i c Defense I n i t i a t i v e : i s s u e s f o r C o n g r e s s , by S t e v e n A. H i l d r e t h (Coor.) [Washington] 1985. (Updated r e g u l a r l y ) CRS I s s u e B r i e f 85170 ----- The S t r a t e g i c Defense I n i t i a t i v e : program d e s c r i p t i o n and m a j o r i s s u e s , by Cosmo DiMaggio, A r t h u r M a n f r e d i , and S t e v e n H i l d r e t h . [ W a s h i n g t o n ] J a n . 7 , 1986. 47 p. CRS Report 86-8 SPR