South Africa: U.S. Policy After Sanctions

SOUTH Foreign CONTENTS SUMMARY ISSUE DEFINITION BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS lnt roduct ion Effect of Legislation on U.S. Policy implementation of Legislation Perspectives on the Impact of Sanctions South African Reaction Disinvestment of American Firms U.S. Influence Effect on South African Economy Danger of Countersanctions Action in the 100th Congress Notes LEG1 SLA'I'ION FOR ADDITIONAL READING SOUTH AFRICA: U.S. POLICY AFTER SANCTIONS SUMMARY I n O c t o b e r 1986, C o n g r e s s e x p r e s s e d d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h t h e c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement p o l i c y of t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n when i t p a s s e d t h e Comprehensive A n t i - A p a r t h e i d A c t , imposing s a n c t i o n s a g a i n s t S o u t h A f r i c a . The Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a s s u r e d t h e C o n g r e s s t h a t i t would f a i t h f u l l y implement t h e s a n c t i o n s a s w e l l a s t h e p o s i t i v e m e a s u r e s r e q u i r e d by t h e Act. While t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n g e n e r a l l y f o l l o w e d t h e A c t ' s r e q u i r e m e n t s , i t c o n t i n u e s t o e s p o u s e a p o l i c y o f c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement. Some m i g h t q u e s t i o n t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s i n t e n t i o n s because it s t i l l e x p r e s s e s d i s a p p r o v a l of t h e u s e o f s a n c t i o n s and h a s n o t y e t c a l l e d f o r f o r m a l , p u b l i c n e g o t i a t i o n s t o c o o r d i n a t e m u l t i l a t e r a l s a n c t i o n s a s d i r e c t e d by t h e Act. The p u r p o s e o f t h e s a n c t i o n s i s t o p e r s u a d e t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government t o move more q u i c k l y t o w a r d s a n e g o t i a t e d end t o t h e a p a r t h e i d s y s t e m and t h e u n r e s t i n S o u t h A f r i c a . South A f r i c a has r e a c t e d t o t h e s a n c t i o n s by d e c l a r i n g them t o be i n t e r f e r e n c e i n i t s d o m e s t i c a f f a i r s , by h e l p i n g b u s i n e s s m e n e v a d e t h e s a n c t i o n s , and by i n c r e a s i n g i t s r e p r e s s i o n of b l a c k s u n d e r t h e s t a t e o f emergency. Some o b s e r v e r s h a v e judged t h a t U.S. i n f l u e n c e w i t h t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government h a s been r e d u c e d , b u t t h i s may n o t be e n t i r e l y t r u e . The o f f i c i a l o p p o s i t i o n , t h e P r o g r e s s i v e F e d e r a l P a r t y , and some d e f e c t o r s from t h e r u l i n g N a t i o n a l P a r t y , h a v e r e a c t e d t o t h e s a n c t i o n s by p r e s s u r i n g t h e government t o s p e e d up r e f o r m s It is and t o . n e g o t i a t e w i t h b l a c k s f o r a new s y s t e m f o r s h a r i n g power. t o o e a r l y t o t e l l what e f f e c t t h e s a n c t i o n s w i l l h a v e o n t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n economy g e n e r a l l y and p a r t i c u l a r l y on j o b s f o r b l a c k s . The P r e t o r i a governmenl. b e l i e v e s l a r g e numbers of j o b s w i l l 'be l o s t t o b l a c k s . A l t h o u g h some b l a c k s a g r e e , o t h e r s e x p r e s s w i l l i n g n e s s t o e n d u r e s u c h h a r d s h i p s i f i t w i l l r e s u l t i n a major change i n t h e a p a r t h e i d system. The i n c r e a s e i n t h e number of American f i r m s d i s i n v e s t i n g t h e i r h o l d i n g s i n S o u t h Af r i c a s o f a r h a s r e s u l t e d i n r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e j o b l o s s b e c a u s e most o f t h e s e companies have s o l d t h e i r a s s e t s t o l o c a l S o u t h A f r i c a n interests. S o u t h A f r i c a c o u l d impose s e v e r a l k i n d s of c o u n t e r s a n c t i o n s . South A f r i c a n o f f i c i a l s have t h r e a t e n e d t h a t such c o u n t e r s a n c t i o n s c o u l d i n c l u d e a c u t o f f o f American g r a i n i m p o r t s and s e n d i n g home m i g r a n t workers from neighboring c o u n t r i e s . T h e r e i s a l s o some c o n c e r n t h a t W e s t e r n a c c e s s t o s t r a t e g i c m i n e r a l s c o u l d be d e n i e d . So f a r , n o n e o f t h e s e c o u n t e r s a n c t i o n s h a s been implemented. Some i n C o n g r e s s a r e w a i t i n g t o s e e what r e s u l t s a r e p r o d u c e d by t h e U.S. l i m i t e d s a n c t i o n s program b e f o r e c o n s i d e r i n g f u r t h e r m e a s u r e s . O t h e r s a r e n o t w i l l i n g t o w a i t and a r e p r o p o s i n g f u r t h e r m e a s u r e s , i n c l u d i n g l e g i s l a t i o n t o ban a l l i n v e s t m e n t s and t r a d e w i t h S o u t h A f r i c a . I S S U E DEFl NITION C o n g r e s s - p a s s e d t h e Comprehensive A n t i - A p a r t h e i d Act o f 1986 ( P . L . 99-440) i n O c t o b e r 1986. The Act imposed a number of s p e c i f i c s a n c t i o n s a g a i n s t S o u t h A f r i c a and mandated s e v e r a l p o s i t i v e a c t i o n s t o a s s i s t I t a l s o included several provisions intended t o v i c t i m s of a p a r t h e i d . r e d i r e c t U.S. p o l i c y toward South A f r i c a . The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t h e s a n c t i o n s i n p e r s u a d i n g S o u t h A f r i c a t o end a p a r t h e i d and move t o w a r d a f r e e , d e m o c r a t i c , and n o n r a c i a l s o c i e t y i s now a n i s s u e o f c o n c e r n . Depending on t h e i r i m p a c t , C o n g r e s s may want t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e s a n c t i o n s , m o d e r a t e them, o r e l i m i n a t e them a l t o g e t h e r . BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS . Congress, a s d e m o n s t r a t e d by p a s s a g e o f t h e Comprehensive A n t i - A p a r t h e i d A c t , and t h e Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a g r e e t h a t a p a r t h e i d s h o u l d be e l i m i n a t e d i n S o u t h A f r i c a and r e p l a c e d w i t h a f r e e a n d e q u i t a b l e system f o r a l l groups l i v i n g t h e r e . There i s no c o n s e n s u s , however, on t h e b e s t methods f o r a c h i e v i n g t h i s o b j e c t i v e . The Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act r e d e f i n e d U.S. p o l i c y toward South A f r i c a , imposed a s e t of s a n c t i o n s , and e s t a b l i s h e d a number of p o s i t i v e m e a s u r e s t o a s s i s t S o u t h A f r i c a n b l a c k s and o t h e r n o n w h i t e m i n o r i t i e s who a r e t h e v i c t i m s of a p a r t h e i d . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n s u p p o r t s t h e p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s and t h e p o s i t i v e measures but n o t t h e s a n c t i o n s . Because t h e s a n c t i o n s h a v e been f o r c e d o n t o a r e l u c t a n t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , C o n g r e s s w i l l L i k e l y be w a t c h i n g i n t h e coming y e a r t o s e e w h e t h e r t h e y a r e b e i n g implemented. C o n g r e s s w i l l a l s o be w a t c h i n g e v e n t s i n S o u t h A f r i c a . If r e f o r m s d o n o t move q u i c k l y e n o u g h , i n d i c a t i n g l i t t l e i m p a c t of t h e Others s a n c t i o n s , some i n C o n g r e s s may want t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e s a n c t i o n s . may want t o m o d e r a t e o r l i f t t h e c u r r e n t s a n c t i o n s a s c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e . T h i s i s s u e b r i e f l o o k s a t c h a n g i n g U.S. p o l i c y t o w a r d S o u t h A f r i c a , t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e s a n c t i o n s by t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , a n d t h e v a r i o u s p e r s p e c t i v e s on t h e i m p a c t o f t h e s a n c t i o n s . Effect of Legislation on U.S. Policy Although t h e s a n c t i o n s l e g i s l a t i o n has a l t e r e d t h e c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement p o l i c y t o w a r d S o u t h A f r i c a somewhat, t h e e s s e n c e of t h e p o l i c y remains i n t a c t . O r i g i n a l l y , c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement was a c o n c e p t t h a t e n v i s i o n e d m a i n t a i n i n g c o n t a c t w i t h t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government w i t h t h e g o a l o f r e s o l v i n g s o u t h e r n A f r i c a n c o n f l i c t s and p e r s u a d i n g t h e g o v e r n m e n t t o move away from i t s p o l i c y of a p a r t h e i d o r r a c i a l s e p a r a t i o n . I t meant u s i n g d i a l o g u e and q u i e t p r e s s u r e r a t h e r t h a n p u b l i c d i s a p p r o v a l o r A s events s t r o n g e r measures such a s s a n c t i o n s t o reach t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s . u n f o l d e d i n t h e autumn o f 1984 when b l a c k u n r e s t b e g a n , t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n became p r o g r e s s i v e l y more v o c a l i n i t s c r i t i c i s m of S o u t h A f r i c a n repressive actions. I n 1 9 8 5 , s t r a i n s between t h e U.S. Government a n d S o u t h A f r i c a seemed t o grow a s t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n began c a l l i n g f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government and i t s o p p o n e n t s . When S o u t h A f r i c a c o n d u c t e d r a i d s on n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s i n 1985 a n d 1 9 8 6 , t h e United S t a t e s expressed d i s a p p r o v a l . Through a l l of t h i s , t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h e l d t o c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement a s a n o v e r a l l p o l i c y . C i t i n g examples of what i t d e s c r i b e d a s r e f o r m s i n S o u t h A f r i c a , t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a r g u e d t h a t c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement had g i v e n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a l i m i t e d i n f l u e n c e o v e r p o s i t i v e d e v e l o p m e n t s t h a t c o u l d b e undone by s a n c t i o n s . D e s p i t e t h e p a s s a g e of the sanctions legislation, t h e Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o a d v o c a t e d i a l o g u e and c o m u n i c a t i o n w i t h t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government and w i t h a l l p a r t i e s t o s o u t h e r n A f r i c a ' s conflicts. The p h r a s e " c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement" i s r a r e l y u s e d by p o l i c y m a k e r s t o d a y , b u t S e c r e t a r y of S t a t e George S h u l t z , d u r i n g h i s t r i p t o sub-Saharan A f r i c a i n J a n u a r y 1987, s a i d a t a Kenyan p r e s s c o n f e r e n c e , I' So t h i s i s o u r p o l i c y t o be engaged and engaged w i t h e v e r y b o d y and we Administration o f f i c i a l s hope t h a t o u r a c t i o n s w i l l be c o n s t r u c t i v e . " h a v e s t a t e d t h e i r commitment t o implement t h e s a n c t i o n s , e v e n t h o u g h t h e y c o n t i n u e t o e x p r e s s t h e i r d i s a p p r o v a l of t h e p u n i t i v e m e a s u r e s . They a r g u e t h a t s u c h m e a s u r e s w i l l p r o v e h a r m f u l t o S o u t h A f r i c a n b l a c k s and o t h e r n o n w h i t e m i n o r i t i e s and t h a t t h e y w i l l n o t c o n v i n c e t h e w h i t e government i n P r e t o r i a t o a b o l i s h t h e a p a r t h e i d l a w s . The P r e s i d e n t ' s r e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s on Oct. 2 , 1987, c o n c l u d e d t h a t w h i l e t h e s a n c t i o n s s e n t a c l e a r message o f American a b h o r r e n c e of a p a r t h e i d t h e y were n o t e f f e c t i v e i n e l i m i n a t i n g t h e r a c i s m of t h a t s y s t e m . I n s t e a d of s a n c t i o n s t h e r e p o r t recommended t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d c o n t i n u e t o s u p p o r t S o u t h A f r i c a n s working t o b r e a k down b a r r i e r s of f e a r and m i s t r u s t between t h e r a c e s i n S o u t h A f r i c a , t o push f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s on a d e m o c r a t i c f u t u r e f o r t h e c o u n t r y , and t o work w i t h o u r a l l i e s i n Europe and J a p a n t o s u p p o r t t h e f r o n t - l i n e s t a t e s a g a i n s t d e s t a b i l i z a t i o n and economic d e c a y . -- A new development i n t h e ~ d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement p o l i c y i s t h e p u r s u i t of g r e a t e r c o n t a c t o r "engagement" w i t h t h e A f r i c a n N a t i o n a l C o n g r e s s (ANC) and o t h e r a p a r t h e i d o p p o s i t i o n g r o u p s . Such c o n L a c t s a r e mandated i n a n y c a s e by T i t l e I o f t h e Comprehensive A n t i - A p a r t h e i d A c t , which s t a t e s U.S. p o l i c y toward S o u t h A f r i c a . The new U.S. Ambassador t o S o u t h A f r i c a , Edward P e r k i n s , h a s made c l e a r t h a t he would e s t a b l i s h c o n t a c t s w i t h v a r i o u s b l a c k o p p o s i t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s . O t h e r American o f f i c i a l s had t a l k s w i t h ANC l e a d e r s i n 1986, and t h e s e l e d t o a m e e t i n g i n J a n u a r y 1987 between ANC P r e s i d e n t O l i v e r Tambo and Secretary Shultz. As a n e x t e n s i o n o f t h e p o l i c y of e n c o u r a g i n g n e g o t i a t i o n among t h e p a r t i e s i n South A f r i c a , t h e Administration has supported t h e Indaba p r o p o s a l f o r a n o n r a c i a l government i n S o u t h ~ f r i c a ' sN a t a l P r o v i n c e . In t h a t p l a n b l a c k s from t h e KwaZulu homeland would s h a r e power w i t h w h i t e , m i x e d - r a c e , and I n d i a n S o u t h A f r i c a n s i n N a t a l . U.S. o f f i c i a l s r e g a r d t h i s a s a p o s i t i v e move toward r e s o l v i n g t h e problems i n S o u t h A f r i c a , and t h e y hope t h a t a s i m i l a r k i n d o f d i s c u s s i o n w i l l e v e n t u a l l y o c c u r on a nationwide basis. I t i s c l e a r , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t w h i l e t h e c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement p o l i c y i s s t i l l a l i v e , i t h a s been h e a v i l y i n f l u e n c e d by c o n g r e s s i o n a l v i e w s a n d a c t i o n s a s w e l l a s by e v e n t s i n S o u t h A f r i c a . Furthermore, t h e p o l i c y i s i n a c o n t i n u i n g s t a t e of e v o l u t i o n . Implementation o f L e g i s l a t i o n The Administration began implementation of t h e Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act on O c t . 27, 1 9 8 6 , when P r e s i d e n t R e a g a n s i g n e d E x e c u t i v e O r d e r 12571. The e x e c u t i v e o r d e r g a v e a u t h o r i t y t o a l l Government a g e n c i e s t o implement t h e s a n c t i o n s and o t h e r m e a s u r e s i n t h e Act. To d a t e , a t l e a s t t h r e e a g e n c i e s h a v e t a k e n i m p l e m e n t i n g a c t i o n s . The S t a t e Department p u b l i s h e d r e g u l a t i o n s . i n O c t o b e r 1 9 8 6 , t o implement p r o v i s i o n s r e l a t i n g t o t h e u s e o f f a i r l a b o r s t a n d a r d s by U.S. f i r m s i n African South Africa. A l s o i n O c t o b e r , i t t e r m i n a t e d t h e U.S.-South C o n v e n t i o n f o r t h e A v o i d a n c e o f D o u b l e T a x a t i o n , a s r e q u i r e d by t h e A c t . I n o r d e r t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e ban on t h e i m p o r t o f p r o d u c t s made by S o u t h A f r i c a n p a r a s t a t a l s (government-owned c o m p a n i e s ) , t h e S t a t e Department I n t h e same m o n t h , i s s u e d a l i s t o f s u c h p a r a s t a t a l s i n November 1 9 8 6 . t h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Department t e r m i n a t e d a i r s e r v i c e between t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and S o u t h A f r i c a , and t h e T r e a s u r y Department i s s u e d r e g u l a t i o n s on S o u t h ~ f r i c a ng o l d c o i n s , b a n k l o a n s , a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s , a n d o t h e r i m p o r t s banned by t h e Act. I n December, T r e a s u r y p u b l i s h e d r e g u l a t i o n s t o i m p l e m e n t t h e b a n on new i n v e s t m e n t s a n d t h e p r o v i s i o n p r o h i b i t i n g U. S. banks f r o m h o l d i n g d e p o s i t s by t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n g o v e r n m e n t o r parastatals. T h e Act r e q u i r e d 1 2 s e p a r a t e r e p o r t s t o C o n g r e s s t h a t were d u e on specific dates. A l l o f t h e s e r e p o r t s have been s u b m i t t e d , b u t a l l e x c e p t two were r e c e i v e d by C o n g r e s s l a t e r t h a n t h e d a t e d u e . T h e r e p o r t on t h e economy o f s o u t h e r n A f r i c a was r e c e i v e d e a r l y , a n d t h e f i n a l r e p o r t t h a t a s s e s s e d t h e d e g r e e of p r o g r e s s a c h i e v e d t o w a r d e n d i n g a p a r t h e i d was Following a r e d e s c r i p t i o n s r e c e i v e d on t i m e , a c c o r d i n g t o p r e s s r e p o r t s . of t h e r e p o r t s t h a t have been r e c e i v e d : -- H e a l t h c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e "homelands." R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 5 0 3 ; d u e Dec. 1, 1 9 8 6 ; r e c e i v e d J a n . 9 , 1 9 8 7 ; d e l a y e d b e c a u s e S o u t h A f r i c a d e n i e d a v i s a t o t h e AID p e r s o n who was t o c o n d u c t t h e n e c e s s a r y r e s e a r c h . The r e p o r t s a i d t h a t w h i l e t w o - t h i r d s o f a 1 1 S o u t h A f r i c a n b l a c k c h i l d r e n a r e u n d e r n o u r i s h e d , c h i l d r e n i n t h e h o m e l a n d s a n d t h e r e s e t t l e m e n t camps have t h e most s e v e r e forms of m a l n u t r i t i o n . -- I m p o r t s o f s t r a t e g i c a n d c r i t i c a l m a t e r i a l s f r o m t h e WEA countries. R e q u i r e d by S u b s e c t i o n 5 0 2 ( b ) ( l ) ( ~ ) ; d u e Nov. 2, 1986; r e c e i v e d J a n . 23, 1987; d e l a y e d b e c a u s e t h e n e c e s s a r y s t a t i s t i c s w e r e n o t a v a i l a b l e i n t i m e f o r a November r e l e a s e . Monthly d a t a a f t e r t h e f i r s t The r e p o r t r e p o r t i s r e q u i r e d by S u b s e c t i o n 5 O 2 ( b ) ( l )(B) a n d 5 0 2 ( b ) ( 2 ) . l i s t s U.S. i m p o r t s from c o u n t r i e s of t h e C o u n c i l o f Mutual Economic A s s i s t a n c e (CMEA) o r S o v i e t - b l o c c o u n t r i e s . -- A c t i v i t i e s o f t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n C o m n u n i s t P a r t y (SACP) a n d i t s i n f i l t r a t i o n i n t o South African opposition groups. R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 5 0 9 ; d u e J a n . 2 , 1 9 8 7 ; r e c e i v e d J a n . 8 , 1 9 8 7 . The r e p o r t s a i d t h e A f r i c a n N a t i o n a l C o n g r e s s (ANC) was d e e p l y o b l i g a t e d t o t h e SACP a n d t h e S o v i e t Union f o r m i l i t a r y a s s i s t a n c e b u t i t d i d n o t d e a l w i t h t h e q u e s t i o n of w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e A N C ' S i d e o l o g y i s i n f l u e n c e d m a i n l y by comnunism o r nationalism. T h e r e p o r t a l s o s a i d t h e SACP h a s a l m o s t n o i n f l u e n c e o n S o u t h A f r i c a ' s b l a c k Labor g r o u p s . - -- E x t e n t o f U.S. d e p e n d e n c e on S o u t h A f r i c a n m i n e r a l s . R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 504; d u e J a n . 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d Feb. 3 , 1987. The r e p o r t s a y s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s d e p e n d e n t on S o u t h A f r i c a f o r 100% o f i t s c o n s u m p t i o n o f f e r r o v a n a d i u m ; 50% o f c o b a l t , c h r o m i t e , f e r r o c h r o m i u m , and p l a t i n u m - g r o u p m e t a l s ; 33% o f manganese m e t a l and f e r r o m a n g a n e s e ; and 28% o f n a t u r a l i n d u s t r i a l diamonds. -- ~ s s i s t a n c eprograms f o r b l a c k S o u t h A f r i c a n s . R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 5 1 1 ( b ) ; due J a n . 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d F e b r u a r y 1987. The r e p o r t d e s c r i b e d p r o g r a m s . on e d u c a t i o n ; t r a i n i n g f o r l e a d e r s of l a b o r u n i o n s , g r a s s r o o t s community o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and consumer u n i o n s ; t r a i n i n g f o r h e a l t h w o r k e r s and b l a c k e n t r e p r e n e u r s ; human r i g h t s p r o j e c t s s u c h a s l e g a l a s s i s t a n c e f o r d e t a i n s ; and community s e l f - h e l p p r o j e c t s . -- V i o l a t i o n s o f t h e arms embargo a g a i n s t S o u t h A f r i c a . R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 508; due Apr. 1, 1987; r e c e i v e d Apr. 2 , 1987. The r e p o r t s a i d t h a t d e f e n s e companies i n F r a n c e , I t a l y and I s r a e l s i n c e 1977 had h e l p e d m a i n t a i n and u p g r a d e weapons s y s t e m s p r o v i d e d t o S o u t h A f r i c a b e f o r e t h e embargo was imposed. The I s r a e l i government was b e l i e v e d t o be a w a r e of t h i s t r a d e , b u t i t d e c i d e d i n March n o t t o s i g n new m i l i t a r y c o n t r a c t s with South Africa. Companies i n Germany, t h e U n i t e d Kingdom, t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , and S w i t z e r l a n d were s a i d t o h a v e made weapons and g r a y a r e a s a l e s on o c c a s i o n w i t h o u t government p e r m i s s i o n . -- Negotiations f o r m u l t i l a t e r a l sanctions. R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 401; d u e Apr. 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d Apr. 9 , 1987. According t o t h e r e p o r t , t h e m u l t i l a t e r a l n e g o t i a t i o n s f o r s a n c t i o n s a r e not mandatory, but i n s t e a d t h e C o n g r e s s was o n l y recommending such n e g o t i a t i o n s . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n makes c l e a r i n t h e r e p o r t t h a t i t b e l i e v e s t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f m a n d a t o r y m u l t i l a t e r a l s a n c t i o n s t h r o u g h t h e U . N . S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , a s recommended i n S e c t i o n 4 0 1 ( e ) , would be a m i s t a k e . I t argues t h a t each n a t i o n should be f r e e t o d e c i d e on s a n c t i o n s i n d i v i d u a l l y a c c o r d i n g t o what a c t i o n s i t c o n s i d e r s t o be e f f e c t i v e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e p o r t s a y s t h a t d i s c u s s i o n s a r e c o n t i n u i n g w i t h key a l l i e s on p o l i c y t o w a r d s S o u t h A f r i c a a n d on a s s i s t a n c e t o i t s neighbors i n southern Africa. -- D e p o s i t a c c o u n t s o f S o u t h A f r i c a n n a t i o n a l s i n U.S. banks. R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 507; due Apr. 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d Apr. 1 3 , 1987. Treasury concludes t h a t a p r o h i b i t i o n a g a i n s t South African i n d i v i d u a l s o r c o r p o r a t i o n s h o l d i n g d e p o s i t s i n U.S. banks would be e x p e n s i v e f o r t h e banks. The p r o h i b i t i o n a l s o would b e d i f f i c u l t t o e n f o r c e , r e s u l t i n g i n widespread e v a s i o n , according t o t h e r e p o r t . The r e p o r t f u r t h e r n o t e s t h a t a b o u t 90% o f S o u t h A f r i c a n o v e r s e a s d e p o s i t s a r e i n non-U.S. banks, a n d , t h e r e f o r e , s u c h a p r o h i b i t i o n would h a v e l i t t l e i m p a c t o n S o u t h A f r i c a ' s economy. -- I n d u s t r i a l i z e d d e m o c r a c i e s ' r e l a t i o n s w i t h and measures a g a i n s t S o u t h A f r i c a . R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 5 0 6 ; due Apr. 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d May 20, 1987. The r e p o r t examines 30 c o u n t r i e s ; 2 4 of t h e s e h a v e imposed economic s a n c t i o n s on S o u t h A f r i c a . The most common of t h e s a n c t i o n s i n c l u d e a ban on new i n v e s t m e n t ( 2 0 c o u n t r i e s ) , a ban on i m p o r t s o f S o u t h A f r i c a n g o l d c o i n s ( 1 8 c o u n t r i e s ) , a ban on i m p o r t s of S o u t h A f r i c a n i r o n and s t e e l ( 1 7 c o u n t r i e s ) , and a ban on new l o a n s ( 9 c o u n t r i e s ) . The r e p o r t s a y s t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a e x p o r t s 35% o f i t s GDP t o t h e l e a d i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z e d - countries. I t s m a j o r t r a d i n g p a r t n e r s a r e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , West Germany, J a p a n , B r i t a i n , I t a l y , F r a n c e , S w i t z e r l a n d , and t h e N e t h e r l a n d s . B r i t a i n i s t h e l a r g e s t f o r e i g n i n v e s t o r i n S o u t h A f r i c a , f o l l o w e d by West Germany, and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s t h e t h i r d l a r g e s t f o r e i g n i n v e s t o r . -- I n v e s t i g a t i o n oE t h e A f r i c a n N a t i o n a l C o n g r e s s a n d o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s f o r c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e F o r e i g n A g e n t s R e g i s t r a t i o n Act. R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 512; due Apr. 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d S e p t . 1 7 , 1987. The r e p o r t found no v i o l a t i o n s o f t h e r e p o r t i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r f o r e i g n a g e n t s by t h e A f r i c a n N a t i o n a l C o n g r e s s o r t h e S o u t h West A f r i c a n P e o p l e ' s ( S o u t h West ~ f r i c a )T r a d e and C u l t u r a l Organization. The U.S.-Namibia C o u n c i l , I n c . was found t o have a p p a r e n t v i o l a t i o n s . ,Another r e p o r t s p e c i f i c a l l y on t h e i n s p e c t i o n o f t h i s o r g a n i z a t i o n w i l l c o n t a i n recommendations f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e o r e n f o r c e m e n t a c t i o n . The c u r r e n t r e p o r t p r o v i d e d i n f o r m a t i o n on c o u r t a c t i o n i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e a l l e g a t i o n t h a t J o h n McGoff had v i o l a t e d t h e F o r e i g n A g e n t s R e g i s t r a t i o n Act. Arguments were h e a r d May 1 8 , 1987, b u t t h e c o u r t had n o t made a d e c i s i o n by t h e d a t e t h i s r e p o r t was s e n t . -- Economy o f S o u t h e r n A f r i c a . 1987; r e c e i v e d Mar. 2 3 , 1987. R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 5 0 5 ; due Apr. 2 , -- South A f r i c a n p r o g r e s s o r l a c k of p r o g r e s s toward e n d i n g apartheid. R e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 501; due O c t . 2 , 1987; r e c e i v e d O c t . 2 , 1987. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e r e p o r t , U.S. s a n c t i o n s a c c o m p l i s h e d t h e g o a l of s e n d i n g a message t o S o u t h A f r i c a t h a t t h e American p e o p l e a r e o u t r a g e d by t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n j u s t i c e o f t h e a p a r t h e i d s y s t e m and i t s d e n i a l of b a s i c human r i g h t s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e p o r t s a y s t h a t t h e g o a l of ' p r e s s u r i n g S o u t h A f r i c a t o end t h e a p a r t h e i d s y s t e m was n o t a c c o m p l i s h e d . I n s t e a d , i t a s s e r t s t h a t b l a c k s l o s t jobs a s a r e s u l t of s a n c t i o n s ; t h e g o v e r n m e n t , r a t h e r t h a n e a s i n g human r i g h t s r e s t r i c t i o n s , i n c r e a s e d i t s r e p r e s s i o n of i t s o p p o s i t i o n ; and S o u t h A f r i c a was a b l e t o e v a d e t h e s a n c t i o n s by d e v e l o p i n g new m a r k e t s . The r e p o r t n o t e d t h a t d i s i n v e s t m e n t by American f i r m s d i d n o t d e p r i v e S o u t h A f r i c a n s o f p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s produced by t h o s e f i r m s . F u r t h e r m o r e , development programs f o r b l a c k s were l o s t when American companies w i t h d r e w t h e i r i n v e s t m e n t s . Finally, t h e r e p o r t recomnended a g a i n s t a d d i t i o n a l s a n c t i o n s a r g u i n g t h a t t h e y would n o t a c h i e v e t h e g o a l s o u t l i n e d i n t h e Comprehensive A n t i - A p a r t h e i d A c t , and t h e y would be h a r m f u l t o U.S. s t r a t e g i c and economic i n t e r e s t s . I n s t e a d o f more s a n c t i o n s , t h e r e p o r t recomnended t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d work w i t h i t s a l l i e s and f r i e n d s i n A f r i c a t o s u p p o r t m e a n i n g f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s i n South Africa. C e r t a i n o t h e r r e p o r t s and n o t i f i c a t i o n s h a v e no due d a t e s and a r e r e q u i r e d o n l y under s p e c i f i c circumstances. A t o t a l of seven such c o m m u n i c a t i o n s i s r e q u i r e d by t h e Act. An example i s S e c t i o n 3 1 1 ( b ) of t h e Act which s a y s t h a t i f t h e P r e s i d e n t d e c i d e s t o modify o r s u s p e n d a n y s a n c t i o n s , he must r e p o r t t o Congress t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a h a s r e l e a s e d Nelson Mandela and t a k e n o t h e r s p e c i f i c a c t i o n s o r t h a t i t h a s made s u b s t a n t i a l p r o g r e s s toward d i s m a n t l i n g a p a r t h e i d . C o n g r e s s may t h e n d i s a p p r o v e t h e P r e s i d e n t i a l d e t e r m i n a t i o n on t h e s a n c t i o n w i t h i n 3 0 d a y s . I f t h e P r e s i d e n t d e c i d e s a s p e c i f i c s a n c t i o n h a s i n c r e a s e d U.S. d e p e n d e n c e on S o v i e t b l o c c o u n t r i e s f o r any s t r a t e g i c m a t e r i a l s , t h e n h e must r e p o r t t h i s d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o Congress. T h i s r e p o r t i s r e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 502(a). The o n l y r e p o r t i n t h i s c a t e g o r y t h a t h a s i s r e q u i r e d by S e c t i o n 3 0 3 ( a ) ( 2 ) . This report m i n e r a l s e x p o r t e d by S o u t h Af r i c a n p a r a s t a t a l s t h a t other r e l i a b l e sources i n quantities necessary f o r defense. I t was r e c e i v e d on J a n . 1 4 , 1987. been s u b m i t t e d s o f a r lists ten strategic a r e u n a v a i l a b l e from t h e U.S. economy and Most i n d i c a t i o n s t o d a t e s u g g e s t t h a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s been i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act t o t h e l e t t e r . S a n c t i o n s s u p p o r t e r s may l o o k c r i t i c a l l y , however, a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s v e t o i n F e b r u a r y 1987, o f a U . N . S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l r e s o l u t i o n t h a t would h a v e made m a n d a t o r y f o r a l l U.N. members a package o f s a n c t i o n s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e imposed by t h e Pact. The U.S. Ambassador t o t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s d e f e n d e d t h e v e t o , s a y i n g t h a t mandatory s a n c t i o n s would harm b l a c k S o u t h A f r i c a n s and c o u n t r i e s n e i g h b o r i n g S o u t h A f r i c a and t h a t u n l i k e t h e c o n g r e s s i o n a l s a n c t i o n s , t h e proposed U.N. s a n c t i o n s c o u l d n o t be l i f t e d i n t h e e v e n t S o u t h A f r i c a makes s u b s t a n t i a l c h a n g e s i n t h e a p a r t h e i d system. A l s o t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s done l i t t l e t o s e t up d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h U.S. a l l i e s on c o o r d i n a t e d s a n c t i o n s a s c a l l e d f o r by T i t l e I V , S e c t i o n 401 of t h e A c t . I n a t l e a s t one c a s e , disagreement i n Congress t e m p o r a r i l y blocked T r e a s u r y had d e c i d e d i n e a r l y 1987 t o f u l l implementation of a s a n c t i o n . a l l o w t h e i m p o r t of S o u t h A f r i c a n uranium u n t i l t h e c o n g r e s s i o n a l i n t e n t on t h e ban on t h e i m p o r t of S o u t h A f r i c a n u r a n i u m c o u l d b e c l a r i f i e d . Some i n C o n g r e s s wanted t h e ban t o i n c l u d e a l l S o u t h A f r i c a n u r a n i u m imports. O t h e r s wanted uranium meant f o r r e - e x p o r t t o o t h e r c o u n t r i e s t o be e x c l u d e d from t h e ban b e c a u s e a t o t a l ban would mean t h e l o s s of j o b s a t uranium p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s i n t h e United S t a t e s . Treasury determined t h a t C o n g r e s s i n t e n d e d t o b a r a l l i m p o r t s of S o u t h A f r i c a n u r a n i u m , and t h e s e i m p o r t s were h a l t e d on J u l y 2 , 1987. P e r s p e c t i v e s on t h e Impact of S a n c t i o n s T h e r e h a s b e e n a l o n g s t a n d i n g d e b a t e on w h e t h e r s a n c t i o n s w i l l be s u c c e s s f u l o r counterproductive i n t h e South African case. Supporters b e l i e v e s a n c t i o n s e v e n t u a l l y w i l l p r e s s u r e t h e P r e t o r i a government t o e l i m i n a t e i t s a p a r t h e i d s y s t e m -- e i t h e r by s p e e d i n g up r e f o r m s o r by s i t t i n g down t o n e g o t i a t i o n s . O p p o n e n t s , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , s a y t h a t s a n c t i o n s w i l l o n l y harden P r e t o r i a ' s d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o resist change w h i l e h u r t i n g b l a c k s e c o n o m i c a l l y and t h a t t h e y w i l l a l s o l e a d t o a c u t o f f of Western a c c e s s t o South A f r i c a n m i n e r a l s . Most a n a l y s t s a g r e e t h a t i t i s t o o e a r l y t o e x p e c t many a c t u a l r e s u l t s from t h e U.S. s a n c t i o n s , y e t t h e r e i s much s p e c u l a t i o n a b o u t t h e i r impact. Most s u p p o r t e r s o f s a n c t i o n s w a i t e d u n t i l O c t o b e r 1987 b e f o r e a d v o c a t i n g a d d i t i o n a l s a n c t i o n s . This s e c t i o n w i l l f i r s t l o o k a t t h e i m e d i a t e c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h e s a n c t i o n s a n d t h e n a t c h a n g e s t h a t may o c c u r i n t h e f u t u r e . South African Reaction One immediate r e s u l t was t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n g o v e r n m e n t ' s i n c r e a s e d d e f i a n c e o f U.S. policy. P r e s i d e n t Botha and o t h e r S o u t h A f r i c a n o f f i c i a l s r e p e a t e d l y e x p r e s s e d a n g e r and f r u s t r a t i o n w i t h t h e i m p o s i t i o n of s a n c t i o n s by t h e U n i t e d S c a t e s and o t h e r Western c o u n t r i e s a t a time when, t h e y a r g u e , t h e i r government had been moving t o w a r d r e f o r m . Also, they s t r o n g l y c r i t i c i z e d sanctions a s foreign i n t e r f e r e n c e i n South A f r i c a ' s domestic a f f a i r s . T h i s c r i t i c i s m was a p a r t o f t h e r u l i n g N a t i o n a l P a r t y ' s p l a t f o r m i n t h e May 1987 campaign For p a r l i a m e n t a r y s e a t s f o r white voters. Some o b s e r v e r s b e l i e v e t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a d e l a y e d i t s r e f o r m program a f t e r t h e i m p o s i t i o n of s a n c t i o n s b e c a u s e o f t h e w h i t e e l e c t i o n campaign. They b e l i e v e t h e slowdown c o n t i n u e d a f t e r t h e May e l e c t i o n because w h i t e v o t e r s i n d i c a t e d t h a t they were l e a n i n g t o t h e right. The g o v e r n m e n t , on t h e o t h e r hand, c l a i m s t h a t t h e e l e c t i o n g a v e them a mandate t o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y make r e f o r m s and m a i n t a i n s e c u r i t y . C r i t i c s t h i n k t h a t t h e e m p h a s i s h a s been on s e c u r i t y r a t h e r t h a n r e f o r m . T h e y n o t e t h e i m p o s i t i o n of new r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e p r e s s a n d a n t i - a p a r t h e i d g r o u p s a s w e l l a s d e t e n t i o n of o p p o s i t i o n a c t i v i s t s , including children. Because t h e government i s d e t e r m i n e d t h a t i t w i l l n o t g i v e i n t o t h e p r e s s u r e s of s a n c t i o n s , i t has s t o c k p i l e d m a t e r i a l s important t o t h e c o u n t r y ' s economy and r e p o r t e d 1 y h a s h e l p e d b u s i n e s s e s c i r c u m v e n t "S a n c t i o n s - b u s t i n g " t e c h n i q u e s a r e w i d e l y d i s c u s s e d between sanctions. t h e government and S o u t h A f r i c a n b u s i n e s s e s . T e c h n i q u e s which h a v e been suggested t o evade s a n c t i o n s include marketing through t h i r d c o u n t r i e s , t h e f o r m a t i o n o f o f f s h o r e t r a d i n g companfes (middlemen w i l l i n g t o r u n t h e r i s k o f e v a d i n g s a n c t i o n s ) , f a l s i f y i n g s h i p p i n g documents, b l a c k i n g o u t i n f o r m a t i o n on s h i p p i n g t r a f f i c t o mask t h e o r i g i n o f e x p o r t s , a n d r e r o u t i n g a i r s e r v i c e s through c o u n t r i e s w i l l i n g t o cooperate. According t o some p r e s s r e p o r t s , i n 1987 S w a z i l a n d i s b e i n g u s e d t o e x p o r t S o u t h A f r i c a n f r u i t and m a n u f a c t u r e d goods u n d e r Swazi l a b e l s , S o u t h A f r i c a n s t e e l s c r a p c o n t i n u e s t o be s o l d v i a Europe and J a p a n , and t h e Cayman I s l a n d s a r e b e i n g used t o s h i p S o u t h A f r i c a n l o b s t e r t a i l s . A l t h o u g h t h e May e l e c t i o n s showed w h i t e v o t e r s l e a n i n g t o t h e r i g h t , t h e emergence of a v o c a l m o d e r a t e e l e m e n t i n t h e N a t i o n a l P a r t y (NP) may u l t i r n a t e l y change t h e p a r t y ' s a p p r o a c h . T h r e e NP Members o f P a r l i a m e n t r a n i n t h e w h i t e e l e c t i o n s on a p l a t f o r m o f i n c r e a s i n g t h e p a c e of change. Only o n e i n d e p e n d e n t won a s e a t , w h i l e t h e o f f i c i a l o p p o s i t i o n changed from t h e l i b e r a l P r o g r e s s i v e F e d e r a l P a r t y (PEP) t o e h e r i g h t - w i n g C o n s e r v a t i v e P a r t y (CP). A f t e r winning t h e e l e c t i o n t h e National P a r t y p r o m i s e d t o c o n t i n u e i t s program o f r e f o r m and began a t t e m p t i n g t o p e r s u a d e b l a c k l e a d e r s t o j o i n i t s proposed N a t i o n a l S t a t u t o r y C o u n c i l . The C o u n c i l i s t h e body t h r o u g h which t h e government p r o p o s e s t o n e g o t i a t e w i t h b l a c k l e a d e r s on f u t u r e r e f o r m s . B o t h a l s government now s a y s t h a t u r b a n b l a c k s may h o l d e l e c t i o n s t o s e l e c t t h e l e a d e r s t o s e r v e on t h e It Council. Many b l a c k l e a d e r s have r e j e c t e d t h e s e p r o p o s a l s , however. c o u l d be f o r t h i s r e a s o n t h a t t h e government r e p o r t e d l y a s k e d t h e A f r i c a n N a t i o n a l C o n g r e s s f o r p o s s i b l e s e c r e t t a l k s , and r e l e a s e d i m p r i s o n e d ANC l e a d e r , Govan Mbeki, i n November 1987. D i s i n v e s t m e n t of American Firms A s e c o n d immediate r e s u l t o f t h e s a n c t i o n s may b e t h e i n c r e a s e i n U.S. companies w i t h d r a w i n g t h e i r i n v e s t m e n t s from S o u t h A f r i c a . Since t h e p a s s a g e o f t h e s a n c t i o n s l e g i s l a t i o n a t l e a s t f i v e m a j o r American c o m p a n i e s h a v e withdrawn t h e i r h o l d i n g s t h e r e . They a r e G e n e r a l M o t o r s , I B M , Eastman Kodak, R e v l o n , and Exxon. E a r l i e r i n S e p t e m b e r , Coca C o l a -- p u l l e d o u t of t h e country. Most o f t h e s e companies s a i d t h e y w i t h d r e w b e c a u s e of t h e P r e t o r i a g o v e r n m e n t ' s s l o w movement away from a p a r t h e i d a s w e l l a s t h e u n c e r t a i n t y of t h e economic c l i m a t e . A s of December 1 9 8 6 , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e ~ m e r i c a n Chamber of Commerce i n J o h a n n e s b u r g , 26 o u t o f t h e r e m a i n i n g 259 U.S. c o r p o r a t i o n s were c o n s i d e r i n g d i s i n v e s t m e n t f r o m South Africa. T h e r e i s some d e b a t e on w h e t h e r t h i s i s good o r bad. Some American companies h a v e s o l d t h e i r a s s e t s t o l o c a l S o u t h A f r i c a n i n t e r e s t s , a move which a l l o w s employees t o k e e p t h e i r . j o b s b u t d o e s n o t a c c o m p l i s h t h e p u r p o s e o f d i s i n v e s t m e n t . The r e a s o n a n t i - a p a r t h e i d g r o u p s a d v o c a t e d i s i n v e s t m e n t i s t o w i t h d r a w U.S. s u p p o r t o f t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n economy, and t h i s method o f w i t h d r a w a l d o e s n o t a c c o m p l i s h t h i s o b j e c t i v e At b e c a u s e American p r o d u c t s i n q u e s t i o n a r e s t i l l s o l d i n S o u t h A f r i c a . l e a s t o n e American company, Eastman Kodak, h a s made a t o t a l w i t h d r a w a l , making c e r t a i n t h a t i t s p r o d u c t s w i l l no l o n g e r be s o l d a n d d i s t r i b u t e d there. O t h e r o b s e r v e r s h a v e e x p r e s s e d c o n c e r n t h a t i f American c o m p a n i e s w i t h d r a w , t h e f a i r employment p r i n c i p l e s and t h e s o c i a l programs t h e y f i n a n c e w i l l be e l i m i n a t e d . The argument i s t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a n c o m p a n i e s r e p l a c i n g t h e American s u b s i d i a r i e s w i l l be f o r c e d t o c u t c o s t s i n o r d e r t o compete w i t h l o c a l companies, and s o c i a l programs w i l l b e removed a s a result. Some S o u t h A f r i c a n b u s i n e s s e x e c u t i v e s a r g u e t h a t t h i s p r o b l e m i s e x a g g e r a t e d and t h e y n o t e t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a n c o m p a n i e s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e Urban F o u n d a t i o n , h a v e s p e n t l a r g e sums o f money on s o c i a l programs f o r b l a c k s . U.S. Influence A t h i r d r e s u l t of s a n c t i o n s , a c c o r d i n g t o American d i p l o m a t s , i s a r e d u c t i o n of U.S. i n f l u e n c e w i t h t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government. These o f f i c i a l s s a y t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a i s no l o n g e r l i s t e n i n g t o American p r o t e s t s of human r i g h t s v i o l a t i o n s s u c h a s f o r c e d r e m o v a l s i n t h e b l a c k t o w n s h i p o f O u k a s i e , n o r t h o f P r e t o r i a , and t h e d e t e n t i o n i n Venda of Reverend T. Simon F a r i s a n i . Some b e l i e v e , a c c o r d i n g t o news r e p o r t s , t h a t P r e t o r i a w i l l be e v e n l e s s w i l l i n g t h a n i n t h e p a s t t o n e g o t i a t e w i t h t h e ANC and o t h e r b l a c k l e a d e r s , an a c t i o n s t r o n g l y e n c o u r a g e d by t h e U n i t e d States. U.S. o f f i c i a l s have s a i d S o u t h A f r i c a i s c o m p l e t e l y i g n o r i n g American v i e w s b e c a u s e of t h e s a n c t i o n s and p o i n t t o t h e g o v e r n m e n t ' s r e s p o n s e t o b l a c k o p p o s i t i o n i n December 1986. A more t a n g i b l e e x a m p l e o f f a d i n g U.S. i n f l u e n c e i s P t e t o r i a ' s r e f u s a l t o i s s u e v i s a s t o some An AID o f f i c i a l who American c i t i z e n s w i s h i n g t o t r a v e l i n S o u t h A f r i c a . was t o s t u d y h e a l t h and m a l n u t r i t i o n i n t h e homelands was r e f u s e d a v i s a i n 1 9 8 6 , a s were a number of Members o f C o n g r e s s who w i s h e d t o v i s i t t h e country. C r i t i c s of t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e a r g u e t h a t b e f o r e t h e s a n c t i o n s , t h e c o n s t r u c t i v e engagement p o l i c y was n e v e r v e r y e f f e c t i v e i n i n f l u e n c i n g South A f r i c a t o moderate i t s behavior. F u r t h e r m o r e , i t m i g h t be a r g u e d t h a t U.S. i n f l u e n c e i s b e i n g f e l t i n S o u t h A f r i c a a s a r e s u l t o f t h e s a n c t i o n s b e c a u s e of t h e g r o w t h of w h i t e m o d e r a t i o n . Some w h i t e s h a v e become f r u s t r a t e d w i t h t h e g o v e r n m e n t ' s slowdown i n i t s r e f o r m program and want t o s e e f a s t e r movement toward s h a r i n g power w i t h b l a c k s . A group of a c a d e m i c s a t S t e l l e n b o s c h U n i v e r s i t y , an i n f l u e n t i a l A f r i k a n e r u n i v e r s i t y , h a s made a p u b l i c s t a t e m e n t t o t h i s e f f e c t ; 3 Members of P a r l i a m e n t r a n a s i n d e p e n d e n t s i n t h e May 1987 e l e c t i o n s ; and t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r a D e m o c r a t i c A l t e r n a t i v e f o r S o u t h A f r i c a (IDASA) was e s t a b l i s h e d by f o r m e r PFP members of P a r l i a m e n t . IDASA o r g a n i z e d t h e g r o u p o f w h i t e s , many o f them A f r i k a n e r s , who met w i t h ANC o f f i c i a l s i n Dakar, S e n e g a l , i n J u l y 1987. , E f f e c t o n S o u t h A f r i c a n Economy T h e r e i s much s p e c u l a t i o n abouc p o s s i b l e economic e f f e c t s o f t h e American s a n c t i o n s . S u p p o r t e r s o f s a n c t i o n s had hoped t h a t t h e m e a s u r e s i n t h e a n t i - a p a r t h e i d l e g i s l a t i o n would c a u s e t h e economy t o d e c l i n e t o t h e d e g r e e t h a t t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government would be w i l l i n g t o make f u n d a m e n t a l c h a n g e s i n t h e a p a r t h e i d system. The S o u t h A f r i c a n government and o t h e r s i n S o u t h A f r i c a m a i n t a i n t h a t s a n c ' t i o n s w i l l c a u s e many b l a c k s t o l o s e t h e i r jobs. U.S. s a n c t i o n s a l o n e , t h e y s a y , w i l l r e s u l t i n o v e r 6 0 0 , 0 0 0 unemployed, and t h e l o s s of j o b s t o t h e s e w o r k e r s w i l l mean t h a t 3.1 m i l l i o n of t h e i r d e p e n d e n t s w i l l a l s o be a f f e c t e d . Some S o u t h A f r i c a n s who a r e a p a r t h e i d o p p o n e n t s s a y t h a t t h e r e d u c e d income w i l l d e c r e a s e b l a c k consumer power. They a r g u e t h a t consumer power i s t h e k e y c o s u c c e s s f u l economic b o y c o t t s t h a t t h e y b e l i e v e a r e a n i m p o r t a n t n o n v i o l e n t f o r c e f o r change. Some o b s e r v e r s t h i n k t h a t s a n c t i o n s w i l l l i m i t t h e p r e s s u r e f o r c h a n g e from t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n b u s i n e s s comnunity. Those who make t h i s argument s a y t h a t b u s i n e s s e x e c u t i v e s w i l l be p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h s a n c t i o n s e v a s i o n i n o r d e r t o s u r v i v e . To c i r c u m v e n t s a n c t i o n s t h e y w i l l h a v e t o work c l o s e l y w i t h t h e P r e t o r i a government and t h e r e f o r e w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o a n t a g o n i z e t h e government by Many b l a c k o p p o s i t i o n g r o u p s , on t h e o t h e r p r e s s u r i n g i t f o r reform. h a n d , s a y t h a t b l a c k s a r e w i l l i n g t o e n d u r e t h e unemployment t h a t r e s u l t s from s a n c t i o n s i f t h i s w i l l mean a m a j o r c h a n g e i n t h e a p a r t h e i d s y s t e m . The ANC, COSATU ( t h e u m b r e l l a t r a d e u n i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n ) , and Bishop T u t u f o l l o w t h i s l i n e of argument. Other b l a c k groups such a s Chief B u t h e l e z i ' s I n k a t h a and many w o r k e r s whose j o b s have been t h r e a t e n e d by American companies d i s i n v e s t i n g a r e w o r r i e d a b o u t l o s i n g t h o s e j o b s . C h i e f B u t h e l e z i h a s spoken o u t a g a f n s t s a n c t i o n s f o r t h i s r e a s o n . One y e a r from t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f s a n c t i o n s t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n economy was s l u g g i s h b u t showed m o d e r a t e growth. The g r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t i n 1987 grew by 2.62, a d e c l i n e from t h e 3.5% g r o w t h r a t e d u r i n g t h e l a s t A 3.5% r a t e i s b e l i e v e d t o b e needed t o k e e p two q u a r t e r s of 1986. unemployment a t i t s c u r r e n t l e v e l . R e p o r t e d l y d o m e s t i c and f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s c o n f i d e n c e improved d e s p i t e t h e d i s i n v e s t m e n t of a number of American companies.. P r e s s r e p o r t s seemed h o p e f u l a b o u t t h e f u t u r e of t h e economy, b u t t h e y were l e s s t h a n o p t i m i s t i c on b l a c k unemployment. Because e x p o r t s d e c r e a s e d i n t h e f i r s t h a l f of 1987 d u e t o W e s t e r n s a n c t i o n s , b l a c k w o r k e r s i n s p e c i f i c a r e a s were l a i d o f f o r e x p e c t e d t o l o s e t h e i r j o b s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e c o a l and s u g a r i n d u s t r i e s . Danger o f C o u n t e r s a n c t i o n s A number o f c o u n t e r s a n c t i o n s have been e i t h e r t h r e a t e n e d by S o u t h A f r i c a o r a n t i c i p a t e d by t h o s e o p p o s i n g s a n c t i o n s . I n O c t o b e r 1 9 8 6 , when t h e U.S. S e n a t e was c o n s i d e r i n g an o v e r r i d e of t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s v e t o o f s a n c t i o n s l e g i s l a t i o n , a South African o f f i c i a l t h r e a t e n e d t o c u t o f f S o u t h A f r i c a n i m p o r t s of American g r a i n i f t h e o v e r r i d e went t h r o u g h . The S e n a t e o v e r r o d e t h e v e t o and t h e s a n c t i o n s became law, b u t t o d a t e t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government h a s n o t made good i t s t h r e a t . I n t h e summer of 1986, when t h e s a n c t i o n s l e g i s l a t i o n was b e i n g d e b a t e d and o t h e r c o u n t r i e s w e r e c o n s i d e r i n g new s a n c t i o n s , S o u t h A f r i c a t h r e a t e n e d t o s e n d home m i g r a n t w o r k e r s from n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d t h e s e s a n c t i o n s be a d o p t e d . S o u t h A f r i c a d i d s e n d home Mozambican w o r k e r s i n r e s p o n s e t o a l a n d m i n e i n c i d e n t on i t s n o r t h e r n b o r d e r i n O c t o b e r 1 9 8 6 , i n which s i x S o u t h A f r i c a n s o l d i e r s were wounded. T h i s a c t i o n , however, was p o r t r a y e d a s a r e s p o n s e t o a l l e g e d Mozambican p r o t e c t i o n o f ANC g u e r r i l l a s who w e r e b e l i e v e d t o h a v e l a i d t h e mine. I t was n o t b e l i e v e d t o be a response t o sanctions. Other f o r e i g n workers i n South A f r i c a , however, c o u l d be r e p a t r i a t e d a s a f u t u r e c o u n t e r s a n c t i o n . Some h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h a t S o u t h A f r i c a might b e c o n s t r a i n e d from i m p o s i n g t h i s and o t h e r s a n c t i o n s a g a i n s t i t s n e i g h b o r s b e c a u s e i t d e p e n d s on t h e i r m a r k e t s F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e f o r e i g n exchange produced from f o r many of i t s goods. t r a d e w i t h them might become more v a l u a b l e i f S o u t h A f r i c a ' s w o r l d i s o L a t i o n grows. Those opposed t o s a n c t i o n s h a v e l o n g a r g u e d t h a t American m e a s u r e s a g a i n s t South A f r i c a could r e s u l t i n South A f r i c a denying t h e United S t a t e s a c c e s s t o c e r t a i n s t r a t e g i c m i n e r a l s , e s p e c i a l l y chromium a n d p l a t i n u m - g r o u p m i n e r a l s . O t h e r s might a r g u e t h a t t h i s i s u n l i k e l y b e c a u s e S o u t h A f r i c a n e e d s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and o t h e r Western m a r k e t s f o r t h e s e minerals. N e v e r t h e l e s s , some a r e a n t i c i p a t i n g how t o d e a l w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of a c u t o f f . T h e r e i s t a l k now o f d e v e l o p i n g chromium and p l a t i n u m r e s e r v e s i n Zimbabwe and Botswana, a s w e l l a s p l a t i n u m m i n e s i n t h e United S t a t e s . So f a r none of t h e s e proposed c o u n t e r s a n c t i o n s h a v e been p u t i n t o e f f e c t i n r e s p o n s e t o American s a n c t i o n s . A c t i o n i n t h e 100th C o n g r e s s A s t h e 1 0 0 t h C o n g r e s s opened i n 1987 many Members were w i l l i n g t o w a i t and s e e how t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government moved on i t s r e f o r m program, p a r t i c u l a r l y concerning negotiations with black leaders. Others were n o t w i l l i n g t o w a i t , and t h e y i n t r o d u c e d b i l l s t h a t would ban a l l i n v e s t m e n t s i n and a l l t r a d e w i t h S o u t h A f r i c a (H.R. 1580 and S. 5 5 6 ) . A number o f o t h e r b i l l s a l s o w e r e i n t r o d u c e d t h a t proposed d i f f e r e n t s a n c t i o n s a s w e l l as b i l l s t o a s s i s t S o u t h A f r i c a ' s n e i g h b o r s who may be a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d by s a n c t i o n s imposed by t h e U.S. and o t h e r Western c o u n t r i e s . ( S e e CRS I s s u e B r i e f 87152, S o u t h e r n Af r i c a : U.S. F o r e i g n A s s i s t a n c e , by Raymond W. Copson.) On O c t . 1, 1987, t h e P r e s i d e n t s u b m i t t e d h i s r e p o r t d e t a i l i n g S o u t h A f r i c a ' s l a c k o f p r o g r e s s toward r e f o r m . The r e p o r t recommended t h a t t h e United S t a t e s continue t o support n e g o t i a t i o n s i n South A f r i c a r a t h e r than impose a d d i t i o n a l s a n c t i o n s . R e a c t i n g t o t h e r e p o r t , some Members o f C o n g r e s s h e l d a p r e s s c o n f e r e n c e on Oct. 8 , 1987, t o e x p r e s s t h e i r d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s a s s e s s m e n t and t h e i r s u p p o r t f o r i n c r e a s e d p r e s s u r e on S o u t h A f r i c a t h r o u g h t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f f u r t h e r sanctions. Some Members o f C o n g r e s s s p e c i f i c a l l y announced t h e i r s u p p o r t f o r H.R. 1580 and S. 556. H e a r i n g s t o c o n s i d e r a d d i t i o n a l economic p r e s s u r e on S o u t h A f r i c a were h e l d i n t h e S e n a t e on O c t . 22 and i n t h e New House h e a r i n g s on s a n c t i o n s w e r e h e l d i n House on Nov. 11, 1987. March 1988. Notes 1. The exchange a l l o w e d S h u l t z t o communicate American c o n c e r n f o r t h e A N C ' s u s e of v i o l e n c e i n o p p o s i n g t h e a p a r t h e i d s y s t e m and f o r t h e Tambo s a i d h e r e g a r d e d t h e a l l e g e d Communist i n f l u e n c e on t h e ANC. m e e t i n g a s American r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t t h e ANC i s a l e g i t i m a t e f o r c e and o n e t o be r e c k o n e d w i t h i n t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n c o n f l i c t . Some c r i t i c s , a l l e g i n g t h a t t h e ABC i s a t e r r o r i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n , b e l i e v e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d n o t be h o l d i n g s u c h t a l k s . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , b e l i e v e s t h a t i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o communicate w i t h t h e ABC a s w e l l a s t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n government i f t h e r e i s t o be a s o l u t i o n t o t h e i n c r e a s i n g c o n f l i c t i n South Africa. 2. S i n c e 1984, m i x e d - r a c e and I n d i a n S o u t h A f r i c a n s h a v e been a b l e t o vote f o r representatives t o the tricameral parliament. B l a c k s h a v e no r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n p a r l i a m e n t and a r e e x p e c t e d t o v o t e f o r t h e i r l e a d e r s i n t h e e t h n i c homelands. P.L. 100-71, S.Amdt.No. 204 t o H.R. 1827 An amendment t o H.R. 1827. Prohibits assistance intended f o r t h e SADCC c o u n t r i e s from b e i n g p r o v i d e d t o c o u n t r i e s t h a t s u p p o r t " n e c k l a c i n g " ( a form of e x e c u t i o n u s e d among S o u t h A f r i c a n b l a c k s ) . Assistance could be made t o t h e s e c o u n t r i e s o n l y i f t h e P r e s i d e n t c e r t i f i e s t h a t t h e y h a v e ( 9 ) r e n o u n c e d t h e p r a c t i c e o f n e c k l a c i n g , and ( 2 ) made e f f o r t s t o p r e v e n t o r g a n i z a t i o n s t h a t s u p p o r t n e c k l a c i n g from o p e r a t i n g i n t h e i r t e r r i t o r i e s . P r o p o s e d May 2 0 , 1987; a g r e e d t o i n S e n a t e May 21, 1987. S u p p l e m e n t a r y a p p r o p r i a t i o n s b i l l f o r FY87 (H.R. 1 8 2 7 ) p a s s e d House Apr. 23; p a s s e d S e n a t e J u n e 2. C o n f e r e n c e r e p o r t (H.Rept. 100-195) a g r e e d I n c o n f e r e n c e , l a n g u a g e on t o by House J u n e 30 and S e n a t e J u l y 1. 1* n e c k l a c i n g " was changed t o r e q u i r e t h a t a s s i s t a n c e be made t o a n y c o u n t r y t h a t ( 1 ) does n o t advocate necklacing; ( 2 ) has taken a c t i o n a g a i n s t any p e r s o n found t o p r a c t i c e n e c k l a c i n g ; and ( 3 ) d o e s n o t k n o w i n g l y a l l o w Signed t e r r o r i s t s who p r a c t i c e n e c k l a c i n g t o o p e r a t e i n i t s t e r r i t o r y . i n t o law J u l y 1 1 , 1987. P-L. 100-203, Rangel Amdt. t o H.R. 3545 S e c t i o n 10231. P a r t I V , T i t l e X of t h e Omnibus Budget R e c o n c i l i a t i o n Act of 1987. D e n i e s f o r e i g n t a x c r e d i t f o r t a x e s p a i d t o S o u t h A f r i c a by American b u s i n e s s e s d o i n g b u s i n e s s t h e r e . C o n f e r e n c e r e p o r t (H.Rept. 1004 9 5 ) f i l e d Dec. 2 1 , 1987. House a g r e e d t o c o n f e r e n c e r e p o r t Dec. 21; S e n a t e a g r e e d Dec. 22. S i g n e d i n t o law Dec. 22, 1987. 1580 (Dellurns et a l . ) P r o v i s i o n s a r e i d e n t i c a l t o t h o s e i n S. 556 e x c e p t H.R. 1580 a l s o l i m i t s t h e i m p o r t o f goods and s e r v i c e s from f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s t h a t t a k e c o r m e r c i a l a d v a n t a g e o r o t h e r w i s e b e n e f i t from t h e American s a n c t i o n s I n t r o d u c e d Mar. 1 2 , 1987; r e f e r r e d t o C o m n i t t e e s o n Ways a n d (Section 7). Means, on P u b l i c Works and T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , on Banking, ~ i n a n c e and Urban A f f a i r s , on Armed S e r v i c e s , and on I n t e l l i g e n c e ( p e r m a n e n t ) . R e f e r r e d t o v a r i o u s subcommittees Mar. 1 7 , 23, and 2 6 , 1987. H.B. 556 (Cranston e t al.) Imposes t h e f o l l o w i n g s a n c t i o n s a g a i n s t S o u t h A f r i c a : S. S e c t i o n 1 bans U.S. i n v e s t m e n t s i n S o u t h A f r i c a ; S e c t i o n 2 bans i m p o r t s from S o u t h A f r i c a w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f s t r a t e g i c m i n e r a l s s p e c i f i e d by t h e P r e s i d e n t ; S e c t i o n 2 bans e x p o r t s t o South A f r i c a w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of f o o d and m e d i c a l s u p p l i e s ; S e c t i o n 3 bans l a n d i n g r i g h t s i n t h e United S t a t e s f o r a l l S o u t h A f r i c a n a i r c r a f t e x c e p t i n emergency s i t u a t i o n s ; S e c t i o n 4 b a n s t h e i m p o r t of k r u g e r r a n d s o r o t h e r S o u t h African gold coins; S e c t i o n 5 p r o h i b i t s American banks from a c c e p t i n g S o u t h A f r i c a n d e p o s i t s e x c e p t f o r d i p l o m a t i c and c o n s u l a r purposes ; S e c t i o n 6 bans m i l i t a r y o r i n t e l l i g e n c e c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h South Africa. S e c t i o n 11 r e p e a l s t h e Comprehensive A n t i - A p a r t h e i d Act 1986 (P.L. 99-440). I n t r o d u c e d Feb. 1 9 , 1987; r e f e r r e d t o Committee on F o r e i g n R e l a t i o n s . Committee on F o r e i g n R e l a t i o n s r e q u e s t e d e x e c u t i v e comment f r o m S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t J u n e 3 , 1987. FOR ADD1 TI ONAL READ1 NG U.S. L i b r a r y of C o n g r e s s . Congressional Research S e r v i c e . South A f r i c a : P r e s i d e n t ' s r e p o r t on p r o g r e s s toward e n d i n g a p a r t h e i d [ b y ] Raymond W . Copson. [ W a s h i n g t o n ] 1987. CRS R e p o r t 87-829 F