Superconducting Super Collider

SUMMARY ISSUE DEFINITION BACKGROUND AND ANALYSIS S c i e n t i f i c Background High Energy P a r t i c l e P h y s i c s P a r t i c l e Accelerators The Superconduct i n g Super C o l l i d e r The DOE Program 1983-1986 1987 and Beyond C u r r e n t Cost E s t i m a t e s Funding C o n s i d e r a t i o n s The Accuracy o f t h e SSC Cost E s t i m a t e R e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h e SSC t o O t h e r F e d e r a l R&D Funding The F e d e r a l R&D Budget The SSC and C i v i l i a n R&D O t h e r New and Large F e d e r a l R&D Programs Advanced A c c e l e r a t o r T e c h n o l o g i e s C o s t and B e n e f i t s Scientific T e c h n i c a l and Economic Social I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i o n and Competition CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS, REPORTS, AND DOCUMENTS SUPERCONDUCTING SUPER COLLIDER The Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s proposed t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n , o v e r t h e n e x t 8 t o 9 y e a r s , of t h e w o r l d ' s l a r g e s t and h i g h e s t energy p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r , t h e Superconducting Super C o l l i d e r (SSC). I n 1988 d o l l a r s , t h e p r o j e c t i s . e s t i m a t e d t o c o s t about $4.4 b i l l i o n and have a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g budgets a f t e r 1996 of about $270 m i l l i o n . In current d o l l a r s , t h e s e c o s t s have been e s t i m a t e d by some o b s e r v e r s t o be o v e r $6 b i l l i o n and $500 m i l l i o n r e s p e c t i v e l y . The SSC i s e n v i s i o n e d a s t h e "next g e n e r a t i o n " h i g h e n e r g y p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r , needed t o expand t h e f r o n t i e r of p a r t i c l e p h y s i c s r e s e a r c h beyond t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s o f e x i s t i n g tnachines. Although many s c i e n t i s t s , p o l i c y a n a l y s t s , and policymakers s u p p o r t such a p r o j e c t , n o t a l l do. A major concern i s t h a t o t h e r a r e a s of s c i e n c e , p a r t i c u l a r l y small s c i e n c e , would s u f f e r i f such f u n d i n g i s allocated t o a single, large project. In addition t o i t s s c i e n t i f i c b e n e f i t s , t h e SSC'S s u p p o r t e r s s u g g e s t a number o f r e l a t e d t e c h n i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l b e n e f i t s . Not a l l a g r e e , however, t h a t s u c h b e n e f i t s would o c c u r o r t h a t t h e y would be s i g n i f i c a n t compared t o c o s t s . Because h i g h e n e r g y p h y s i c s i s i n c r e a s i n g l y an i n t e r n a t i o n a l e f f o r t , i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n and c o m p e t i t i o n a l s o must be c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s complex o f f a c t o r s makes t h e c o n g r e s s i o n a l e v a l u a t i o n of t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s of t h e SSC a d i f f i c u l t t a s k . Because t h e WE proposes t o s t a r t c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h e SSC i n FY89, b a s i c funding d e c i s i o n s probably w i l l have t o be made d u r i n g t h e 1 0 0 t h Congress. ISSUE DEFINITION Given t h e p r o j e c t e d c o s t and c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e SSC, q u e s t i o n s a r i s e a s t o i t s s c i e n t i f i c m e r i t , i t s impact on o t h e r a r e a s of s c i e n c e , and i t s economic and s o c i a l c o s t s and b e n e f i t s . The b a s i c i s s u e i s w h e t h e r t h e Congress w i s h e s t o a u t h o r i z e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h e SSC a t t h i s time, a s proposed by t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . BACKGROUND AND lLblALYSIS S c i e n t i f i c Background High Energy P a r t i c l e P h y s i c s I n t h e w o r l d of subatomic o r " e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e " p h y s i c s , most e x p e r i m e n t a l knowledge d e r i v e s from e x p e r i m e n t s conducted on l a r g e , complex, and e x p e n s i v e machines c a l l e d p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s . Since the f i r s t d i s c o v e r i e s of n u c l e a r p h y s i c s i n t h e 1890s, p h y s i c i s t s have uncovered a growing a r r a y of e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e s which c o n s t i t u t e t h e b u i l d i n g b l o c k s of m a t t e r and t h e fundamental f o r c e s o f n a t u r e . The e a r l i e s t model of t h e atom c o n s i s t e d of a n u c l e u s formed by p r o t o n s ( p a r t i c l e s w i t h a p o s i t i v e e l e c t r i c a l c h a r g e ) and n e u t r o n s ( p a r t i c l e s w i t h no e l e c t r i c a l c h a r g e ) s u r r o u n d e d by a c l o u d o f e l e c t r o n s ( p a r t i c l e s with a negative e l e c t r i c a l charge) i n well-described o r b i t s . I n t h e l a s t 30 y e a r s , t h i s s i m p l e , b u t e f f e c t i v e , model h a s been g r e a t l y c o m p l i c a t e d by t h e d i s c o v e r i e s of o v e r 100 o t h e r s u b a t o m i c p a r t i c l e s . These new e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e s were d i s c o v e r e d by examining t h e c o l l i s i o n s of p r o t o n s and e l e c t r o n s w i t h e a c h o t h e r and w i t h o t h e r t a r g e t s i n p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s . The " d e b r i s " of t h e s e c o l l i s i o n s , which was formed by t h e c o n v e r s i o n of e n e r g y i n t o m a t t e r , c o n t a i n e d t h e s e new p a r t i c l e s , which have l i v e s on t h e o r d e r of o n l y m i l l i o n t h s o r b i l l i o n t h s o f s e c o n d s . As e n e r g i e s of t h e a c c e l e r a t o r s were i n c r e a s e d o v e r t h e y e a r s , more and more p a r t i c l e s were d i s c o v e r e d . The r e s u l t of t h e s e e x p e r i m e n t s and p a r a l l e l t h e o r e t i c a l developments was a p i c t u r e of m a t t e r t h a t was much more complex t h a n p r e v i o u s l y t h o u g h t . -- Over t h e l a s t few d e c a d e s , a new t h e o r y of t h e s t r u c t u r e of m a t t e r c a l l e d t h e S t a n d a r d Model has evolved. This theory c u r r e n t l y d e s c r i b e s m a t t e r a s c o n s i s t i n g of two s e t s of e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e s and a s e t o f fundamental f o r c e s of nature. P r o t o n s and n e u t r o n s once t h o u g h t t o be e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e s t h e m s e l v e s , now a r e t h o u g h t t o be c o n s t r u c t e d o f o n e The e l e c t r o n i s a member of of t h e new s e t s of p a r t i c l e s c a l l e d q u a r k s . the other s e t called leptons. The f o u r fundamental f o r c e s of n a t u r e s t r o n g , weak, e l e c t r o m a g n e t i c , and g r a v i t a t i o n a l d e s c r i b e t h e ways m a t t e r i n t e r a c t s and i s h e l d t o g e t h e r . One of t h e major t r i u m p h s o f t h e S t a n d a r d Model i s i t s a b i l i t y t o show how two of t h e s e f o r c e s e l e c t r o m a g n e t i c and weak a r e connected. Scientists are currently t r y i n g t o extend t h i s theory t o include t h e s t r o n g f o r c e , thus forming a Grand U n i f i e d Theory of fundamental f o r c e s . Physicists believe that, u l t i m a t e l y , i t may be p o s s i b l e t o f i t t h e g r a v i t a t i o n a l f o r c e i n t o t h i s theory. - -- -- --- Elementary p a r t i c l e p h y s i c s d e a l s w i t h t h e v e r y s m a l l e s t c o n s t i t u e n t s of m a t t e r . Cosmology, t h e s t u d y of t h e c r e a t i o n and e v o l u t i o n o f t h e stars, u n i v e r s e , d e a l s w i t h t h e v e r y l a r g e s t accumulations o f m a t t e r g a l a x i e s , and i n t e r g a l a c t i c m a t t e r . These two s u b j e c t s o v e r l a p when t h e o r i g i n of t h e u n i v e r s e i s c o n s i d e r e d . I n t h e a c c e p t e d t h e o r y of t h e t h e "Big an^" t h e o r y t h e f o u r f o r c e s of o r i g i n of t h e u n i v e r s e n a t u r e were a l l u n i f i e d a t t h e i n s t a n t of c r e a t i o n and a l l m a t t e r c o n s i s t e d of q u a r k s and l e p t o n s . As t h e u n i v e r s e c o o l e d , t h e f o r c e s s e p a r a t e d and t h e q u a r k s began forming a number of p a r t i c l e s i n c l u d i n g , f i n a l l y , p r o t o n s and n e u t r o n s . Of t h e s i x t y p e s of l e p t o n s , o n l y t h e e l e c t r o n remains a s a s t a b l e p a r t i c l e i n o r d i n a r y m a t t e r . -- -- -- Although c o n s i d e r a b l e e x p e r i m e n t a l v e r i f i c a t i o n of t h e s e t h e o r i e s h a s o c c u r r e d up through t h e c u r r e n t g e n e r a t i o n of p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s , t h e r e remains much more t o be v e r i f i e d . C e r t a i n p a r t i c l e s have been p r e d i c t e d i n o r d e r t o s a t i s f y v a r i o u s p a r t s of t h e S t a n d a r d Model. These p a r t i c l e s r e q u i r e c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r e n e r g y t o produce t h a n e x i s t s i n c u r r e n t accelerators. I n addition, i n order t o simulate conditions c l o s e r t o t h e a c t u a l s t a r t i n g p o i n t of t h e u n i v e r s e t o t e s t t h e h y p o t h e s e s o f t h e Big Bang t h e o r y , much h i g h e r energy a c c e l e r a t o r s a r e needed t h a n now e x i s t . While i t w i l l n o t be p o s s i b l e t o produce t h e e n e r g i e s r e q u i r e d t o r e a c h t h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t o r t o v e r i f y a l l t h e p r e d i c t i o n s of t h e S t a n d a r d Model, much a d d i t i o n a l e x p l o r a t i o n can t a k e p l a c e by b u i l d i n g a l a r g e r accelerator. T h i s i s t h e r e a s o n t h a t t h e h i g h energy p h y s i c s community h a s proposed t h e Superconducting Super C o l l i d e r . Particle Accelerators P a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s have evolved from t h e breadbox s i z e c y c l o t r o n i n v e n t e d by D r . E r n e s t 0 . Lawrence i n 1930 t o t h e proposed $4 t o $6 b i l l i o n SSC. T h i s growth h a s been r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e t h e h i g h e r e n e r g i e s needed t o s e a r c h f o r new p a r t i c l e s . A number of p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s a r e i n o p e r a t i o n throughout t h e world. Some of t h e s e machines a r e l i n e a r a c c e l e r a t o r s and some a r e s y n c h r o t r o n ( c i r c u l a r ) a c c e l e r a t o r s . Currently, s y n c h r o t r o n s a r e used t o a c h i e v e t h e h i g h e s t e n e r g i e s because p a r t i c l e s can be a c c e l e r a t e d r e p e a t e d l y , a s t h e y c o n t i n u o u s l y c i r c l e t h r o u g h t h e machines. Large magnets a r e r e q u i r e d t o f o r c e t h e charged p a r t i c l e s t o move i n a c i r c u l a r p a t h . L i n e a r a c c e l e r a t o r s do n o t r e q u i r e magnets s i n c e t h e p a r t i c l e s t r a v e l i n a s t r a i g h t Line. The l e n g t h c u r r e n t l y r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e v e r y h i g h e n e r g i e s , however, i s t o o g r e a t t o make them p r a c t i c a l f o r t h e e n e r g i e s needed by t h e SSC ( a b o u t 20 t r i l l i o n e l e c t r o n v o l t s ) u n l e s s new ways t o a c c e l e r a t e p a r t i c l e s a r e formed ( s e e below). Some of t h e s e machines a r e " f i x e d t a r g e t 1 ' machines where a beam of p a r t i c l e s i s accelerated i n t o a fixed heavier target. O t h e r s a r e c o l l i d e r s i n which two beams of p a r t i c l e s h i t head on. The w o r l d ' s major h i g h energy p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e under c o n s t r u c t i o n and proposed, a r e l i s t e d i n t h e following table. TABLE 1. Major High Energy Particle Accelerators Operating or Under Construction Brookhaven - Upton, NY Fermilab Batavia, IL Geneva, Switzerland CERN SLAC - Stanford, CA - proton synchrotron (28GeV on fixed target) proton synchrotron (900GeV on fixed target) proton synchrotron (450GeV on fixed target) electron-positron linear accelerator (20-50GeV on fixed target) electron-positron collider (5GeV x 5GeV) electron-positron collider (5GeV x 5GeV) (23GeV x 23 GeV) electron-positron linear (collider) (5OGeV x 50 GeV) proton-antiproton collider (330GeV x 330GeV) proton-antiproton collider (900GeV x 900GeV) electron-positron collider (50GeV x 50GeV) electron-positron collider (35GeV x 35GeV) electron/positron-proton collider (30GeV x 800GeV) - Cornell - Ithaca, NY DESY Hamburg, W. Germany - SLAC SLC - Stanford, CA - CERN Geneva, Switzerland Batavia, IL Fermilab Tevatron CERN LEP - Geneva, Switzerland Tristan* - Tsukuba, Japan Hamburg, W. Germany DESY HERA* - - Inst. of Nuclear Physics Novosibirsk, U.S.S.R. Institute of High Energy Physics Serpukhov, U.S.S.R. UNK Phase I* UNK Phase I1 * - electron-positron collider (5GeV x 5GeV) proton synchrotron (70GeV on fixed target) proton synchrotron (3TeV on fixed target) proton-antiproton collider (3TeV x 3TeV) Proposed SSC - U,S.A CERN LEP-LHC * Geneva, Switz. proton-proton collider (20TeV x 20TeV) large hadron collider (5-10 TeV x 5-1OTeV) Under construction. Notes: - - lGeV = 1 billion electron volts of energy; lTeV = 1 trillion electron volts of energy. The S u p e r c o n d u c t i n g Super C o l l i d e r The SSC would be t h e l a r g e s t and most e n e r g e t i c p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r i n t h e world. The SSC a s e n v i s i o n e d c u r r e n t l y would r e q u i r e a n o v a l t u n n e l 52 m i l e s i n c i r c u m f e r e n c e approximately 30 o r more f e e t underground. T h i s dimension, i f superimposed on a map of g r e a t e r Washington, D.C., would approximate t h e C a p i t a l Beltway. The t u n n e l would have a d i a m e t e r of about 10 f e e t . Within i t would be two p i p e s , e a c h surrounded by c r y o g e n i c s u p e r c o n d u c t i n g magnets ( t h a t i s , magnets cooled t o l i q u i d helium t e m p e r a t u r e , 4.3 d e g r e e s K e l v i n above absolute zero). Superconducting magnets would be used t o l i m i t t h e e l e c t r i c power r e q u i r e m e n t s of t h e a c c e l e r a t o r ' s magnetic f i e l d . Using c o n v e n t i o n a l magnets would make such power c o s t s p r o h i b i t i v e l y h i g h . I n s i d e each p i p e would b e a narrow beam of p r o t o n s . These p r o t o n beams A t several locations (interaction would t r a v e l i n o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n s . h a l l s ) i n t h e t u n n e l , t h e beams would c r o s s f o r c o l l i s i o n s . Detectors would m o n i t o r t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s which would occur a t a r a t e of a b o u t 100 m i l l i o n p e r second. The d e t e c t o r s would f e e d d a t a t o v e r y l a r g e computers f o r continuous a n a l y s i s . The p r i n c i p a l The SSC c o u l d be c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g technology. of c o l l i d i n g beams of p r o t o n s was pioneered a t t h e European C e n t e r f o r N u c l e a r Research (CERN) and h a s evolved s u c c e s s f u l l y a t F e m i l a b ' s Tevatron. Fermilab a l s o s u c c e s s f u l l y used c r y o g e n i c s u p e r c o n d u c t i n g magnets i n i t s Tevatron. D e t e c t o r and computer t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e advanced enough t o make t h e r e s e a r c h p r o d u c t i v e . In short, there i s high c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e s c i e n t i f i c community t h a t t h e SSC would l i v e up t o s c i e n t i f i c expectations. '\The DOE Program 1983-1986 The SSC i s proposed a s a major program of t h e O f f i c e of Energy Research (OER) of t h e Department of Energy (DOE). I t s i n c e p t i o n , however, can be t r a c e d t o t h e worldwide a t t e n t i o n g i v e n t o t h e concept of a s u p e r c o n d u c t i n g s u p e r c o l l i d e r s i n c e t h e l a t e 1960s. The views of t h e U.S. h i g h energy p h y s i c s community began t o c r y s t a l l i z e d u r i n g a meeting of a d i v i s i o n of t h e American P h y s i c a l S o c i e t y i n Snowmass, Colorado, i n 1982. A t t h a t t i m e a consensus developed t h a t t h e n e x t needed s t e p i n t h e development of h i g h e n e r g y p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s would be a multi-TeV (multi-trillion electron volt) particle collider. I n 1983, t h e Subpanel on New F a c i l i t i e s of DOE'S High Energy P h y s i c s Advisory Panel (HEPAP) r e c o w e n d e d , and t h e f u l l HEPAP unanimously e n d o r s e d , t h e immediate i n i t i a t i o n of an SSC having beam e n e r g i e s between 10 and 20 TeV each. I n a d d i t i o n , t h e a d v i s o r y panel recommended s e v e r a l o t h e r a c t i o n s af f e c t i n g o t h e r a c c e l e r a t o r s around t h e c o u n t r y . A t about t h a t t i m e , t h e Tevatron a t Fermilab was commissioned and o p e r a t e d successfully. T h i s p i o n e e r f a c i l i t y , which uses s u p e r c o n d u c t i n g magnets, v a l i d a t e d t h e b a s i c systems concepts needed f o r t h e SSC. I n 1983, WE began p r e l i m i n a r y RhD f o r t h e SSC. On Nov. 19, 1983, t h e House Comnittee on Science and Technology h e l d h e a r i n g s on t h e f u t u r e d i r e c t i o n of DOE'S h i g h energy p h y s i c s program and s p e c i f i c a l l y t h e SSC. I n December 1983, DOE began a "Reference Designs Study" t o examine magnet and s y s t e m s d e s i g n o p t i o n s , t o make t e c h n i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s , and t o make f i r s t c o s t e s t i m a t e s of t h e SSC. The s t u d y , completed i n A p r i l 1984, c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e SSC would be t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e u s i n g e x i s t i n g t e c h n o l o g y and e n g i n e e r i n g . I n e a r l y 1984, DOE d e s i g n a t e d t h e U n i v e r s i t i e s R e s e a r c h A s s o c i a t i o n ( U R A ) , a c o n s o r t i u m of 55 U.S. and one Canadian r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t i e s , t o c o n d u c t t h e SSC r e s e a r c h , development, and d e s i g n a c t i v i t i e s p r i o r t o construction. The SSC C e n t r a l Design Group ( C D G ) , h o s t e d by Lawrence B e r k e l e y L a b o r a t o r y , was e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e LlRA a s t h e o p e r a t i n g g r o u p t o c o o r d i n a t e and s u p e r v i s e t h o s e t a s k s . R e s e a r c h and development r e l a t e d t o t h e SSC h a v e been c a r r i e d o u t f o r t h e CDG by Lawrence B e r k e l e y L a b o r a t o r y , Brookhaven N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y , F e r m i l a b , Texas A c c e l e r a t o r C e n t e r , u n i v e r s i t i e s , and i n d u s t r y . The o b j e c t i v e s of t h e CDG a r e t o a c c o m p l i s h t h e RLD n e c e s s a r y t o d e l i m i t a l l t h e m a c h i n e ' s and a s s o c i a t e d s y s t e m ' s p a r a m e t e r s i n o r d e r t o o p t i m i z e t h e performance and c o s t ; t o s p e c i f y i n d e t a i l t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s of a s i t e ; t o p r e p a r e a complete and d e t a i l e d p l a n of t h e e n v i s i o n e d SSC f a c i l i t y , i n c l u d i n g a f i r m c o s t e s t i m a t e and c o n s t r u c t i o n s c h e d u l e ; t o d e v e l o p p r o t o t y p e magnets and o t h e r components; and t o c o n d u c t e x t e n s i v e s y s t e m s t e s t s of t h e p r o t o t y p e magnets and a s s o c i a t e d c r y o g e n i c and c o n t r o l systems. T h e m a j o r o b j e c t i v e s f o r 1985 were t h e p r e p a r a t i o n of the S u p e r c o n d u c t i n g Super C o l l i d e r P a r a m e t e r s Document" ( J u n e 1 5 , 19851, and F i v e b a s i c t y p e s of magnets were t h e R&D e f f o r t t o s e l e c t magnets. s t u d i e d by teams a t Brookhaven N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y , F e r m i l a b , Lawrence B e r k e l e y L a b o r a t o r y , Texas A c c e l e r a t o r C e n t e r , and c o o p e r a t i n g i n d u s t r i e s . I n August 1985, t h e SSC Magnet S e l e c t i o n Advisory Panel made a unanimous The recolamendation f o r t h e SSC magnets which was a c c e p t e d by t h e CDG. c o n s t r u c t i o n and t a s t i n g o f p r o t o t y p e magnets began a t t h a t t i m e . '1 I I n March 1986, t h e CDG p u b l i s h e d "Conceptual Design o f t h e SuperIt discussed c o n d u c t i n g S u p e r c o l l i d e r , " a r e p o r t r e q u e s t e d by DOE. s c i e n t i f i c n e e d s o f t h e SSC program, a t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e d e s i g n f o r t h e The c o s t SSC, a d e t a i l e d c o s t e s t i m a t e , and a c o n s t r u c t i o n s c h e d u l e . e s t i m a t e t h e n was a b o u t $4 b i l l i o n (1986 d o l l a r s ) , i n c l u d i n g a l l RhD, p r e p a r a t i o n c o s t s , and a n e s t i m a t e o f t h e i n i t i a l complement o f d e t e c t o r s and c o m p u t e r s , b u t e x c l u d i n g l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t s which DOE assumes w i l l be p r o v i d e d f r e e by t h e S t a t e o r l o c a l i t y . Costs a r e discussed i n d e t a i l below. Work c o n t i n u e d t h r o u g h o u t 1985 and 1986 on some t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s o f SSC development b u t , from t h e s c i e n t i f i c and t e c h n i c a l s t a n d p o i n t , t h e SSC program was l a r g e l y r e a d y t o proceed w i t h s i t e s e l e c t i o n and c o n s t r u c t i o n . 1987 and Beyond A t a c o n g r e s s i o n a l b r i e f i n g on Feb. 10, 1987, f o l l o w i n g P r e s i d e n t Reagan's a p p r o v a l of t h e SSC program on J a n . 30, 1987, DOE announced i t s site s e l e c t i o n timetable: A p r i l 1987 August 1987 September 1987 December 1987 J u l y 1988 Mid-87-88 J a n u a r y 1989 DOE t o i s s u e i n v i t a t i o n f o r s i t e p r o p o s a l s ; DOE t o r e c e i v e and s c r e e n p r o p o s a l s ; DOE t o r e f e r q u a l i f i e d p r o p o s a l s t o t h e N a t i o n a l Academy of S c i e n c e s and N a t i o n a l Academy of Engineering f o r evaluation; The Academies t o recomnend t o DOE t h e b e s t q u a l i f i e d s i t e s ( a n unranked l i s t of s e v e r a l s i t e s , w i t h no minimum o r maximum number of s i t e s r e q u i r e d ) ; DOE t o d e s i g n a t e p r e f e r r e d s i t e ; S a f e t y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e v i e w p r o c e s s , i n c l u d i n g Environmental Impact S t a t e m e n t i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e N a t i o n a l Environmental P r o t e c t i o n A c t ; and F i n a l s i t e s e l e c t i o n and s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n by DOE. The c o n s t r u c t i o n p h a s e would b e g i n i n e x p e c t e d t o b e g i n i n a b o u t 1996 o r 1997. 1989 w i t h operations currently Current Cost Estimates When P r e s i d e n t Reagan approved t h e SSC program on J a n . 30, 1987, $60 m i l l i o n had a l r e a d y been s p e n t by DOE on R&D and d e s i g n s t u d i e s from 1984 t h r o u g h 1986. On Feb. 1 0 , 1987, DOE announced t h a t FY87 f u n d i n g f o r t h e SSC would be $20 m i l l i o n and t h a t f o r FY88 i t would b e $35 m i l l i o n ($10 m i l l i o n f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n and $25 m i l l i o n f o r R&D), a l l t o be t a k e n o u t o f t h e a l r e a d y r e q u e s t e d FY88 DOE h i g h e n e r g y p h y s i c s program budget of $556.6 million. DOE f u n d i n g e s t i m a t e s f o r t h e 8- o r 9-year p r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and c o n s t r u c t i o n program a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g : - TABLE 2. Estimated Budget Authority ( i n m i l l i o n s o f FY88 d o l l a r s ) FY88 $35 FY89 348 F m 615 Q 675 F X 670 FY93 691 = F 709 PROJECT COST BREAKDOWN Construction R& D D e t e c t o r s and computers Pre-operating Total CONSTRUCTION COST BREAKDOWN T e c h n i c a l Components Magnets Cryogenics Other Conventional F a c i l i t y C o l l i d e r F a c i l i t i e s (Tunnel) Other System E n g i n e e r i n g and Design Management and Support Cont i n g e n c y Total (1,068) ( 129) ( 322) ( 370) ( 244) FY95 447 F Z 185 Total $4,375 On Feb. 1 0 , 1987, D r . A l v i n W. T r i v e l p i e c e , D i r e c t o r of DOE'S O f f i c e o f Energy R e s e a r c h , s t a t e d t h a t t h e s e budget f i g u r e s a r e a c c u r a t e t o w i t h i n a b o u t lo%, a s s u m i n g t h a t t h e r e q u i r e d l a n d would b e p r o v i d e d f r e e . The SSC's a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g budget a f t e r o p e r a t i o n s b e g i n i s e s t i m a t e d t o b e a b o u t $270 m i l l i o n i n 1988 d o l l a r s . Funding C o n s i d e r a t i o n s The Accuracy o f t h e SSC Cost E s t i m a t e s The c o s t of t h e SSC h a s been r e c o g n i z e d a s a major f a c t o r i n t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n from t h e v e r y b e g i n n i n g of i t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n 1983. The DOE "Reference Designs Study" (1984) made t h e f i r s t c o s t e s t i m a t e s and t h e "Conceptual Design of t h e S u p e r c o n d u c t i n g S u p e r C o l l i d e r " (1986) r e f i n e d t h o s e e s t i m a t e s . The l a t t e r e s t i m a t e ( p . 1 7 0 ) was $3.0 b i l l i o n (FY86 d o l l a r s ) f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , s e p a r a t e d i n t o t e c h n i c a l components, c o n v e n t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , s y s t e m s e n g i n e e r i n g and d e s i g n , management and s u p p o r t , and c o n t i n g e n c y . I n t h e budget e s t i m a t e d i s c u s s e d a t DOE'S c o n g r e s s i o n a l b r i e f i n g on Feb. 1 0 , 1987, and set f o r t h above, e a c h of t h e s e s u b c o s t s , i n FY88 d o l l a r s , showed a n i n c r e a s e , t o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s b e i n g $3.2 b i l l i o n . To t h i s were added c o s t s f o r R&D, d e t e c t o r s and computers, and p r e - o p e r a t i n g c o s t s t o b r i n g t h e c u r r e n t DOE e s t i m a t e up t o $4.375 b i l l i o n (FY88 d o l l a r s ) . T h r e e r e c e n t r e p o r t s of t h e General Accounting O f f i c e (CAO) d e a l w i t h t h e i n c r e a s i n g c o s t s o f DOE's p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s and problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t i n g t h e c o s t s of t h o s e a c c e l e r a t o r s ( I n c r e a s i n g C o s t s , C o m p e t i t i o n May B i n d e r U.S. P o s i t i o n o f L e a d e r s h i p i n High Energy P h y s i c s , S e p t . 1 6 , 1980; DOE P h y s i c s A c c e l e r a t o r s : Their C o s t s and B e n e f i t s , A p r i l 1985; N u c l e a r Science: I n f o r m a t i o n on DOE A c c e l e r a t o r s Should be B e t t e r D i s c l o s e d i n t h e Budget, A p r i l 1986). The l a s t r e p o r t (p. 3 8 ) e s t i m a t e s t h e c o s t o f t h e SSC, i n c l u d i n g d e t e c t o r s , t o be a b o u t $4.9 b i l l i o n (FY85 d o l l a r s ) . Taken t o g e t h e r , t h e s e t h r e e GAO r e p o r t ' s i n d i c a t e t h e c o n t i n u i n g c o n c e r n s of GAO and t h e C o n g r e s s w i t h DOE's a c c e l e r a t o r c o s t s and t h e e x t e n t and a c c u r a c y of t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e d t o Congress f o r i t s b u d g e t a r y and o v e r s i g h t f u n c t i o n s . R e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h e SSC t o O t h e r F e d e r a l R&D Funding Under P r e s i d e n t Reagan, t h e F e d e r a l RbD The F e d e r a l R&D Budget. budget h a s shown s t e a d y r e a l growth. I n t h e a t t e m p t s of C o n g r e s s and t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h l a r g e d e f i c i t s , R&D f u n d i n g may d e c l i n e i n t h e y e a r s a h e a d , a l t h o u g h no f i r m i n d i c a t i o n s of s u c h a d e c l i n e h a v e y e t emerged. The F e d e r a l RbD budget i s v u l n e r a b l e t o low o r no growth i n t h e y e a r s ahead because i t r e p r e s e n t s a f a i r l y s i g n i f i c a n t percentage of d i s c r e t i o n a r y o r c o n t r o l l a b l e budget i t e m s , t h a t i s , t h o s e budget i t e m s which t h e Congress can fund o r n o t fund w i t h o u t changing e x i s t i n g law. The RbD budget ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y $66.8 b i l l i o n i n o b l i g a t i o n s i n c l u d i n g d e f e n s e RbD) i s a b o u t 13% of t h e d i s c r e t i o n a r y budget and a b o u t 22% of t h e controllable outlays. As s u c h , t h e o v e r a l l RbD budget may r e p r e s e n t a prime t a r g e t f o r d e f i c i t r e d u c t i o n i n t h e y e a r s ahead. Any l a r g e , newly proposed s c i e n c e and technology p r o j e c t s , of which t h e SSC i s o n l y one, may e x a c e r b a t e t h e v u l n e r a b i l i t y of F e d e r a l R&D budgets. The SSC and C i v i l i a n BbD. The F e d e r a l RCD budget f o r 1988, i n c l u d i n g f u n d i n g f o r RhD f a c i l i t i e s , i s e s t i m a t e d t o be about $66.8 b i l l i o n ( i n o b l i g a t i o n s ) of which $48 b i l l i o n (72%) i s f o r d e f e n s e RLD and $18.8 b i l l i o n ( 2 8 % ) i s f o r c i v i l i a n R&D. Assuming t h a t t h e a v e r a g e annual SSC f u n d i n g from FY87 through FY96 i s about $542 m i l l i o n t h e SSC by i t s e l f , on t h e a v e r a g e , would r e p r e s e n t about 2.5% of t h e F e d e r a l c i v i l i a n R&D budget. I f t h e r e s t of DOE'S high energy p h y s i c s program a l s o were of t h i s o r d e r o f magnitude, a s t h e pre-FY88 t r e n d s u g g e s t s , t o t a l DOE h i g h energy p h y s i c s program funding might approach 5% of t h e t o t a l F e d e r a l c i v i l i a n R&D budget. I t i s l i k e l y , however, t h a t w i t h t h e i n i t i a t i o n of t h e SSC t h e r e would be a s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n i n t h e non-SSC p o r t i o n of t h e h i g h e n e r g y p h y s i c s program of DOE. O t h e r New and Large F e d e r a l I U D Programs. S e v e r a l o t h e r major F e d e r a l RLD programs i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e SSC r e c e n t l y have been i n i t i a t e d o r proposed. As a p o i n t of comparison i n terms of c o s t s o n l y , f i v e of t h e s e a r e presented here. The NASA s p a c e s t a t i o n program was i n i t i a t e d i n FY85. It w i l l take u n t i l 1996 t o complete. The U.S. c o s t s a r e now e s t i m a t e d t o be o v e r $16 b i l l i o n (1984 d o l l a r s ) w i t h t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s from about 1996 t h r o u g h 2016 o f about $1 b i l l i o n p e r y e a r . DOE, a l o n g w i t h t h e N a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e s of H e a l t h and some p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , r e c e n t l y have proposed t o "sequence" o r "map" t h e human genome. I f s t a r t e d i n FY88, sequencing would t a k e perhaps t e n y e a r s t o complete and c o u l d c o s t a s much a s $3 b i l l i a n (1986 d o l l a r s ) . The N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation (NSF) h a s a FY88 proposed budget of about $1.7 b i l l i o n . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s proposed a d o u b l i n g o f t h e NSF budget by FY92. I f t h i s were t o o c c u r , about $10 b i l l i o n (1987 d o l l a r s ) would be added t o NSF's e x i s t i n g f u n d i n g A U.S. program t o s t u d y changes i n t h e l e v e l o v e r t h e n e x t 10 y e a r s . I t might g l o b a l environment o v e r a 10-year p e r i o d h a s been proposed. begin i n FY90 and extend through 2000. Current c o s t e s t i m a t e s f o r t h e e n t i r e program a r e $1.5 t o $2 b i l l i o n (FY86 d o l l a r s ) . The S t r a t e g i c Defense I n i t i a t i v e (SDI), f i r s t i d e n t i f i a b l e i n t h e FY85 budget, i s l a r g e l y a packaging of e x i s t i n g d e f e n s e - r e l a t e d s c i e n c e and t e c h n o l o g y programs. The Reagan A d m i n i s t r a t i o n p l a n i s now t o fund t h e f i r s t s t a g e a t $20 b i l l i o n ( c u r r e n t d o l l a r s ) o v e r 6 y e a r s . Such l a r g e RhD programs have been and w i l l be s u b j e c t t o t h e same t y p e s of programmatic and budgetary s c r u t i n y t h a t t h e SSC w i l l f a c e . The p o i n t h e r e , however, i s t h a t a number of r e c e n t l y i n i t i a t e d o r proposed l a r g e F e d e r a l R&D programs, having time s c a l e s and f u n d i n g magnitudes s i m i l a r t o t h o s e of t h e SSC, w i l l be competing f o r c o n g r e s s i o n a l a t t e n t i o n and budget d o l l a r s i n t h i s and t h e n e x t s e v e r a l Congresses. Advanced A c c e l e r a t o r Technologies There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h underway i n t o new ways t o a c c e l e r a t e p a r t i c l e s t o t h e v e r y h i g h e n e r g i e s needed t o c o n t i n u e i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e physics. These methods i n v o l v e , f o r example, t h e u s e of v e r y i n t e n s e e l e c t r i c f i e l d s t h a t can be c r e a t e d by plasmas and L a s e r s . Such methods would n o t r e q u i r e t h e p a r t i c l e s t o c i r c l e i n o r d e r t o g a i n l a r g e amounts of e n e r g y , s o a c c e l e r a t o r s b u i l t u s i n g such c o n c e p t s would be l i n e a r , and could be s m a l l e r and p o s s i b l y c h e a p e r , than e q u i v a l e n t s y n c h r o t r o n machines. I n a d d i t i o n , r a d i a t i o n l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g when charged p a r t i c l e s move i n c i r c u l a r o r b i t s l i m i t t h e u l t i m a t e s i z e of a synchrotron. The SSC would be about a s l a r g e a machine a s could be b u i l t u s i n g s y n c h r o t r o n p r i n c i p l e s . F u t u r e , l a r g e r machines p r o b a b l y would have t o be l i n e a r f o r t h e s e reasons. Continued r e s e a r c h i n t o new a c c e l e r a t o r methods i s e s s e n t i a l f o r t h e long-term f u t u r e of e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e physics, Because t h e s e new c o n c e p t s a r e a t t h e e a r l i e s t s t a g e s of development, t h e y a r e u n l i k e l y t o be a b l e t o s u b s t i t u t e f o r t h e SSC i f i t i s d e s i r e d t h a t such a machine be b u i l t much b e f o r e t h e end of t h e c e n t u r y . Some have a r g u e d , however, t h a t t h e pace of e l e m e n t a r y p a r t i c l e p h y s i c s be slowed b e c a u s e , among o t h e r r e a s o n s , of t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of new a c c e l e r a t o r techniques. I n 1985, t h e Kendrew r e p o r t on high energy p a r t i c l e p h y s i c s i n t h e United Kingdom concluded t h a t , i n view of t h e h i g h c o s t of t h e r e s e a r c h , and t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of new t e c h n i q u e s being developed f o r a c c e l e r a t i n g p a r t i c l e s , i t would n o t be c o u n t e r t o t h e long-term i n t e r e s t s of t h e f i e l d i f t h e pace could be reduced worldwide and not merely a t CERN. (British P a r t i c l e P h y s i c i s t s R e j e c t Proposed Cuts f o r CERN, P h y s i c s Today, v. 38, Sept. 1985, p. 69.) Superconductivity Recent d i s c o v e r i e s of h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s u p e r c o n d u c t o r s have r a i s e d q u e s t i o n s about t h e wisdom of proceeding w i t h t h e SSC i f t h e r e i s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e new m a t e r i a l s could r e d u c e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s and complexity. (Record High-Temperature Superconductors Claimed, S c i e n c e , v. 235, Jan. 20, 1987, p. 531-5331. The major a t t r a c t i o n of t h e h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e m a t e r i a l s i s t h e i r a b i l i t y t o become s u p e r c o n d u c t i n g w i t h l i q u i d n i t r o g e n r a t h e r than l i q u i d helium a s c u r r e n t technology r e q u i r e s . L i q u i d n i t r o g e n i s c o n s i d e r a b l y cheaper and e a s i e r t o h a n d l e t h a n l i q u i d helium. The new m a t e r i a l s , however, a r e f a r from r e a d y t o make h i g h s t r e n g t h electromagnets. So f a r , t h e high t e m p e r a t u r e s u p e r c o n d u c t o r s a r e u n a b l e t o c a r r y c u r r e n t d e n s i t i e s r e q u i r e d of t h e SSC magnets e x c e p t a s v e r y t h i n f i l m s which would not be adequate f o r l a r g e magnets. In a d d i t i o n , t h e m a t e r i a l s , a s ceramics, a r e very b r i t t l e and d i f f i c u l t t o shape. C o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h and development i s needed t o r e a c h t h e r e q u i r e d c u r r e n t d e n s i t i e s , t o a c h i e v e t h e f l e x i b i l i t y needed f o r forming e l e c t r o m a g n e t c o i l s , and t o develop i n e x p e n s i v e f a b r i c a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . While p r o g r e s s h a s been unexpectedly r a p i d , many r e s e a r c h e r s , w h i l e o p t i m i s t i c , e x p e c t t h a t i t w i l l t a k e y e a r s b e f o r e t h e s e g o a l s a r e reached. C o s t s and B e n e f i t s There a r e few a b s o l u t e measures of t h e s c i e n t i f i c , t e c h n o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of l a r g e r e s e a r c h programs because t h e consequences o f b a s i c r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s a r e o f t e n d i f f i c u l t t o t r a c k . Consequently, t h e f o l l o w i n g can d e s c r i b e , o n l y b r i e f l y and q u a l i t a t i v e l y , t h e c o s t s and b e n e f i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e SSC. Such c o s t s and b e n e f i t s u l t i m a t e l y w i l l be weighed i n t h e p o l i t i c a l forum v i s - a - v i s other governmental p o l i c i e s and programs a f f e c t i n g t h e N a t i o n ' s w e l f a r e . Scientific There i s a consensus among U.S. h i g h energy p h y s i c i s t s t h a t t h e SSC i s t h e needed n e x t s t e p i n h i g h e n e r g y p h y s i c s r e s e a r c h . Among a l l U.S. s c i e n t i s t s , however, a consensus about t h e p o t e n t i a l v a l u e of t h e SSC' s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o s c i e n c e i n g e n e r a l does n o t appear t o e x i s t . What i s good f o r one branch of s c i e n c e o f t e n i s good f o r s c i e n c e a s a whole, because of s c i e n t i f i c c r o s s - f e r t i l i z a t i o n and t h e s u p p o r t of each o t h e r ' s b u d g e t s f o r A t p r e s e n t , however, t-here i s i n c r e a s i n g concern mutual s e l f - i n t e r e s t . a b o u t t h e a l l o c a t i o n of l i m i t e d governmental funds f o r s c i e n c e . As d i s c u s s e d above, t h e F e d e r a l R&D budget may be v u l n e r a b l e t o r e d u c t i o n . T h i s and t h e i n i t i a t i o n of one o r more new, l a r g e F e d e r a l R&D programs c o u l d a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t U.S. s c i e n c e i n g e n e r a l , and s m a l l s c i e n c e programs i n p a r t i c u l a r , and r e s u l t i n l o s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n a number of a r e a s o f U.S. s c i e n c e . T e c h n i c a l and Economic High e n e r g y p h y s i c s i s a premier example of p u r e o r fundamental s c i e n c e and b a s i c r e s e a r c h . Although economic b e n e f i t s may a c c r u e , t h e t a r g e t o f such r e s e a r c h i s almost always advancement of knowledge. R e c e n t l y , D r . T r i v e l p i e c e , a t t h e DOE c o n g r e s s i o n a l b r i e f i n g on t h e SSC, s t a t e d t h a t o n e - t h i r d of t h e U.S. g r o s s n a t i o n a l product i s based on t h e knowledge g a i n e d from s c i e n t i f i c s t u d y of subatomic p a r t i c l e s , i n c l u d i n g In particular, the electronics n u c l e a r and h i g h e n e r g y p h y s i c s r e s e a r c h . and computer i n d u s t r i e s a r e based on fundamental r e s e a r c h i n t h e a r e a s of e l e c t r o n i c phenomena and condensed m a t t e r ph s i c s and owe much of t h e i r A s v a l i d a s such a u n d e r s t a n d i n g t o r e s e a r c h on subatomic p a r t ' c l e s . s t a t e m e n t may be, i t s converse t h a t most fundamental s c i e n t i f i c i s a n o t h e r i s s u e e n t i r e l y . Not r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s i n economic b e n e f i t s e v e r y f u n d a m e n t a l s c i e n c e program h a s r e s u l t e d i n s i g n i f i c a n t A r e c e n t a n a l y s i s of r e s e a r c h t e c h n o l o g i c a l and economic b e n e f i t s . f u n d i n g by OTA concludes t h a t : -- ! -- Economists have shown a s t r o n g p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between r e s e a r c h and development (R&D) spending and economic growth. They have e s t i m a t e d p r i v a t e r e t u r n s i n e x c e s s of 20% p e r y e a r and s o c i a l r e t u r n s i n e x c e s s of 40% on p r i v a t e s e c t o r R&D e x p e n d i t u r e s . They have n o t been a b l e t o show comparable r e t u r n s , and a t t i m e s been u n a b l e t o show a n y r e t u r n s , on F e d e r a l R6D e x p e n d i t u r e s , e x c e p t f o r some a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m s i n a g r i c u l t u r e , a e r o n a u t i c s , and e n e r g y designed t o improve i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i v i t y . (Emphases i n o r i g i n a l . ) About d i r e c t economic b e n e f i t s from r e s e a r c h , t h e r e p o r t s t a t e s t h a t t h e 11p r i n c i p a l b e n e f i t of r e s e a r c h , e s p e c i a l l y b a s i c r e s e a r c h , i s new and o f t e n unexpected knowledge, which cannot be a s s i g n e d a d i r e c t economic value." (u.s. Congress, O f f i c e of Technology Assessment, Research Funding A T e c h n i c a l Memorandum. a s a n Investment: Can We Measure t h e Returns? Washington, U.S. Govt. P r i n t . Off., Apr. 1986, p. 3 and 4.) -- Many of t h o s e competing f o r t h e SSC s i t e hope t h a t i t w i l l a t t r a c t o t h e r h i g h t e c h n o l o g y f i r m s Like t h e Route 128 phenomena around Boston-Cambridge', M a s s a c h u s e t t s , and S i l i c o n V a l l e y i n C a l i f o r n i a . Many a n a l y s t s o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between b a s i c r e s e a r c h , a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h , and development, however, q u e s t i o n t h e v a l u e and e x t e n t of immediate t e c h n o l o g i c a l s p i n o f f s a s c o n t r a s t e d t o l o n g e r term economic b e n e f i t s d e r i v e d from fundamental s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h . The SSC a l s o i s b e i n g promoted by some a s a method t o h e l p improve t h e N a t i o n ' s i n t e r n a t i o n a l It i s t e c h n o l o g i c a l and economic c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s , and s c i e n c e e d u c a t i o n . s i m i l a r l y d e b a t a b l e whether t h e SSC w i l l be a b l e t o c o n t r i b u t e much t o these goals. For example, many r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f academia b e l i e v e t h a t t h e b e s t way t o improve t h e N a t i o n ' s s c i e n c e e d u c a t i o n i s t o d i r e c t l y fund new s c i e n t i f i c f a c i l i t i e s and equipment i n t h e N a t i o n ' s r e s e a r c h c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s r a t h e r t h a n a l a r g e f a c i l i t y l i k e t h e SSC. I n a d d i t i o n t o any d i r e c t economic and t e c h n o l o g i c a l b e n e f i t s from s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h , t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments r e l a t e d t o t h e development and c o n s t r u c t i o n of e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s e a r c h f a c i l i t i e s a l s o can o c c u r . Although t h e SSC w i l l u s e mature t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t were p i o n e e r e d elsewhere, i t w i l l u s e them on a n unprecedented s c a l e . Expected t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments from such e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i n c l u d e l a r g e - s c a l e p r o d u c t i o n of s u p e r c o n d u c t i n g m a t e r i a l s and c r y o g e n i c r e f r i g e r a t i o n , improved t u n n e l i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s , large-volume s t o r a g e of helium, and computer c o n t r o l and l a r g e - s c a l e mechanical alignment systems. (Quigg, S c h w i t t e r s , Elementary P a r t i c l e P h y s i c s and t h e C h r i s , and Roy F. Superconducting Super C o l l i d e r , S c i e n c e , v. 231, Mar. 28, 1986, p. 1525.) One cannot e x p e c t , of c o u r s e , t h a t t h e SSC would be t h e o n l y s o u r c e of such t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments o r , indeed, t h a t such developments would have s i g n i f i c a n t economic consequenbes . The q u e s t i o n of t h e economic b e n e f i t s from h i g h energy p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s h a s n o t been analyzed t o any e x t e n t i n t h e United S t a t e s . I n Europe, however, two s t u d i e s have shown t h a t e v e r y f r a n c s p e n t by CERN on a s s o c i a t e d h i g h technology development h a s produced about t h r e e f r a n c s of new b u s i n e s s f o r t h e f i r m s involved. These t e c h n o l o g i e s i n c l u d e electronics, optics, a n d c o m p u t e r s ; e l e c t r i c a l equipment; vacuum c r y o g e n i c s and s u p e r c o n d u c t i v i t y ; s t e e l and welding; and p r e c i s i o n machining. I n summary, h i s t o r y h a s shown t h a t many widespread economic b e n e f i t s have r e s u l t e d from some fundamental s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h . European a n a l y s e s have shown t h a t s p e c i f i c c o m e r c i a 1 b e n e f i t s flowed t o t h e f i r m s involved i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and o p e r a t i o n of CERN's h i g h energy p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r development. On t h e o t h e r hand, many o b s e r v e r s h o l d t h a t p o s s i b l e secondary s p i n o f f s a r e u n c e r t a i n a t b e s t and should n o t be used t o j u s t i f y t h e primary purpose of a b a s i c s c i e n c e program. Thus, w h i l e t h e SSC may p r o v i d e f u t u r e economic b e n e f i t s , e q u i v a l e n t f u n d s s p e n t d i r e c t l y t o o b t a i n such p o s s i b l e economic b e n e f i t s might be more effective. Only one economic a s p e c t of SSC development seems r e a s o n a b l y a s s u r e d . The l o c a l i t y t h a t i s chosen t o be t h e s i t e of t h e SSC w i l l b e n e f i t . Such c o r n u n i t i e s do r u n t h e r i s k , however, of s u b s t a n t i a l economic l o s s s h o u l d t h e p r o j e c t be c a n c e l l e d once c o n s t r u c t i o n i s underway. Local i n d u s t r y w i l l be c a l l e d upon t o a l a r g e e x t e n t t o c o n s t r u c t t h e " b r i c k s and mortar" p a r t o f t h e 52-mile t u n n e l and t h e r e q u i r e d r e s e a r c h f a c i l i t i e s . DOE e s t i m a t e s t h a t t h e o n - s i t e work f o r c e would r e a c h about 4,500 people o v e r t h e 8- o r 9-year c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d and t h a t t h e f u l l - t i m e s t a f f of t h e SSC f a c i l i t y would be about 2,500, w i t h about 500 v i s i t i n g s c i e n t i s t s e x p e c t e d o n - s i t e a t any g i v e n time. Social The SSC a l s o may g e n e r a t e broad s o c i a l , i n c l u d i n g c u l t u r a l , b e n e f i t s , a l t h o u g h such b e n e f i t s may be o f f s e t by a s s o c i a t e d s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l costs. Some proponents of t h e SSC have been v e r y e n t h u s i a s t i c a b o u t t h e c u l t u r a l a s p e c t s of t h e SSC. One, f o r example, h a s s t a t e d t h a t " t h e s u p e r c o l l i d e r i s c r i t i c a l l y important t o t h e 2,500-year s e a r c h f o r t h e n a t u r e of fundamental m a t t e r " (Lederman, Leon M. To Understand t h e U n i v e r s e , I s s u e s i n S c i e n c e and Technology, v. 1, Sumner 1985, p. 5 6 ) and that most p e o p l e acknowledge t h a t t h e most i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t of s c i e n c e i s t h e c u l t u r a l one. The need i s universal t o g i v e a c o h e r e n t account of t h e world and o u r p l a c e i n i t . (Lederman, Leon M. The Value of Fundamental S c i e n c e , S c i e n t i f i c American, v. 251, Nov. 1984, p. 40.) ... -- Mankind a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y w i l l c o n t i n u e t o pursue t h i s s e a r c h and t h e SSC may h e l p i n r e a c h i n g t h a t g o a l . The n e x t i n s i g h t s now b e i n g s o u g h t , It however, a r e s o complex t h a t t h e y a r e q u i t e remote from most people. may b e a s k e d , t h e r e f o r e , whether we need t o c o n t i n u e . t h e c u r r e n t pace of t h e s e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o r whether we can slow down and d e l a y c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h e SSC o r i t s f u t u r e e q u i v a l e n t f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s . I n addition t o the p o s s i b i l i t y of answering some of t h e g r e a t q u e s t i o n s about n a t u r e and broadening t h e N a t i o n ' s i n t e l l e c t u a l h o r i z o n s , t h e SSC may c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e N a t i o n ' s o v e r a l l s c i e n t i f i c p r e s t i g e and probably would be a s o u r c e of a number o f f u t u r e Nobel P r i z e s . While t h e s e and o t h e r p e r s p e c t i v e s of t h e s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l v a l u e of b i g s c i e n c e i n g e n e r a l and t h e SSC i n p a r t i c u l a r a r e l e g i t i m a t e , many members of U.S. s o c i e t y may p l a c e g r e a t e r i w e d i a t e v a l u e on promoting, f o r example, h e a l t h , e d u c a t i o n , w e l f a r e , housing, urban development, and o t h e r p o l i c i e s and programs t h a t a r e more d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e s o c i a l development o f t h e ati ion's people t h a n on s c i e n c e p e r s e o r even on t h e economic developments d e r i v e d from t h a t s c i e n c e . It should be remembered, though, t h a t t h e s e programs a r e i o t n e c e s s a r i l y m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e . I n t e r n a t i o n a l Cooperation and Competition The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a s proposed t h a t t h e SSC be l o c a t e d i n t h e United S t a t e s and c o n s t r u c t e d mainly w i t h U.S. funds, although i n t e r n a t i o n a l cooperation has been welcomed informally. Such international cooperation might involve the procurement of some system components, like some superconducting magnets, from foreign sources, and certainly the conduct of joint research projects, involving joint project funding, once the SSC is operational. Formal international cooperative agreements would be made through normal diplomatic channels. The h i g h . energy physics community traditionally has been international and cooperative. The increasing costs of high energy particle accelerators and the numbers of smaller machines that have been or will be decomnissioned will reinforce this tradition. CERN, at which many U.S. high energy physicists have worked, is operated by an European consortium and the HERA collider at DESY in West Germany has components supplied by a number of European countries. The SSC is a prime candidate for such international cost sharing. However, although DOE is promoting international cost sharing in the SSC project, few, if any, foreign decisionmakers have made a commitment to do so. There are both benefits and difficulties, however, associated with international cooperation in big science, including high energy facilities and operations. Some of these benefits and opportunities are: making greater resources available ,in terms of information, knowledge, and know-how necessary for any scientific activity; making possible a wider range of topics and a broader range of approaches; reducing the financial burden on all participants; speeding up the entire innovation process, from basic research to application; reducing wasteful redundancy; and enhancing good will and comnunication among the participants. Some of the costs and difficulties are: inherent difficulties in meshing disparate national bureaucracies; delays in reaching decisions among differing political and legal systems; complications in varying decision processes, priorities, and competencies; costs of international bureaucracy; the danger that political inertia, which makes projects hard to start, but even harder to stop, will dominate; the possibility of drains on national research budgets because of international comnitments; the tendency to undertake, internationally, only lowpriority projects; and the apparent conflict between cooperation and improving a Nation's competitive International Cooperation in Science position. (Rycroft, Robert W. Policy: The U.S. Role in Macroprojects, Technology in Society, v. 5, 1985, p. 51-68. Also published as International Cooperation in Science: the U.S. Role in Megaprojects, In Emerging Issues in Science and Technology, 1982, Washington, National Science Foundation, 1983, p. 1-13.) Although not all of these factors would apply to the SSC, it is clear that international cooperation in big science may not be considered to be a unmitigated good from a national standpoint in every case. A decision by DOE, for example, to enter into agreements with Japan or another country to supply superconducting magnets may be met with disfavor by U.S. industry which has cooperated with DOE in the development of such magnets. Although high energy physics is characterized by international cooperation, it also is characterized by international competition. The titles of two recent articles in the scientific literature express this forcefully: "European Physicists Push Alternative to SSC: (Science, v. 228, May 24, 1985, p.968-970) and "The Shifting Balance of Power in Experimental Particle ~ h ~ s i c s(Physics " Today, v.39, Nov. 1986, p.27-34). 228, May 24, 1985, p.968-970) and "The S h i f t i n g B a l a n c e o f Power i n E x p e r i m e n t a l P a r t i c l e ~ h ~ s i c s( p " h y s i c s Today, v.39, Nov. 1986, p.27-34). A European l a r g e h a d r o n c o l l i d e r (LHC) was o n c e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e a n a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e SSC. The LHC i s a n i d e a of C a r l o R u b b i a , t h e p h y s i c i s t who won a Nobel P r i z e f o r h i s t e a m ' s d i s c o v e r y , a t CERN, o f t h r e e p a r t i c l e s p r e d i c t e d by t h e S t a n d a r d Model. The LHC would u s e C E R N ' S e x i s t i n g LEP f a c i l i t y and c o n s e q u e n t l y c o u l d b e c o n s t r u c t e d much f a s t e r and more c h e a p l y t h a n t h e SSC. I t would, however, h a v e a n e n e r g y o f o n l y a b o u t o n e - t h i r d t h a t o f t h e SSC and o n l y a b o u t o n e - t e n t h o f t h e number o f particle interactions. Rubbia h i m s e l f , c o n s e q u e n t l y , h a s s t a t e d r e c e n t l y t h a t , b e c a u s e of s u c h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , an LHC would n o t , i n f a c t , b e a s c i e n t i f i c a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e SSC. (U.S. C o n g r e s s , House, C o m n i t t e e o n S c i e n c e and T e c h n o l o g y , S t a t u s and P l a n s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and CERN High E n e r g y P h y s i c s Programs and t h e S u p e r c o n d u c t i n g S u p e r C o l l i d e r ( S S C ) , But, s h o u l d t h e SSC n o t be f u n d e d , H e a r i n g s , Nov. 2 9 , 1985, p. 4 3 . ) c u r r e n t European a c c e l e r a t o r p l a n s s u g g e s t t h a t a " f a v o r a b l e European o p t i o n " would be a p r o t o n c o l l i d e r a t LEP h a v i n g e n e r g i e s of 8.5 TeV e a c h , It t a r g e t e d a t e s s e n t i a l l y t h e same p h y s i c s a s t h e SSC." (Physics News i n 1986, P h y s i c s Today, v. 40, J a n . 1987, p. S-29.) T h i s o p t i o n , however, would i n v o l v e e x t e n s i v e development of magnets. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e Europeans, t h e S o v i e t s and t h e J a p a n e s e have l a r g e p a r t i c l e a c c e l e r a t o r s under c o n s t r u c t i o n . The S o v i e t UNK P h a s e I1 c o l l i d e r would h a v e a c o l l i s i o n e n e r g y i n t h e r a n g e o f t h e LHC. I n e v a l u a t i n g t h e N a t i o n ' s need f o r t h e SSC, o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r c o o p e r a t i o n a s w e l l a s c h a l l e n g e s from a b r o a d w i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d . N a t i o n a l s c i e n t i f i c p r e s t i g e w i l l be p l a c e d on t h e s i d e of t h e s c a l e s c a l l e d c o m p e t i t i o n j u s t a s t h e need f o r c o s t s h a r i n g w i l l be p l a c e d on t h e s i d e of cooperation. LEG1 SLATION H.R. 2700 ( B e v i l l ) Makes a p p r o p r i a t i o n s f o r e n e r g y and w a t e r development f o r FY88, Introduced i n c l u d i n g $25 m i l l i o n f o r S u p e r c o n d u c t i n g S u p e r C o l l i d e r R&D. J u n e 1 7 , 1987; r e f e r r e d t o Committee on A p p r o p r i a t i o n s . R e p o r t e d t o House ( H . ~ e p t . 100-162) J u n e 17. P a s s e d House, amended, J u n e 24. Referred t o S e n a t e Committee on A p p r o p r i a t i o n s . H.R. 3228 (Roe) A u t h o r i z e s a p p r o p r i a t i o n s f o r t h e Superconducting Super C o l l i d e r program, i n c l u d i n g $25 m i l l i o n f o r R&D and $10 m i l l i o n f o r i n i t i a l construction. I n t r o d u c e d Aug. 7 , 1987; r e f e r r e d t o C o m n i t t e e on S c i e n c e , S p a c e , and Technology. C O W ; E E S S I O ~BEARINGS, REPORTS, AND DOCUnEblTS U. S. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on Energy Development and Applications. High energy physics facilities. Hearing, 98th Congress, 1st session, Nov. 19, 1983. Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 1984. 654 p. ----- ~ u ~ e r c o n d u cing t Super Coll ider. Hearings, 100th Congress, session, Apr. 7, 8, and 9, 1987. [Not yet printed] 1st U.S. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcomnittee on International Scientific Cooperation. International Hearing, cooperation on the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC). 100th Congress, 1st session, May 7, 1987. [Not yet printed] U.S. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Subcomnittee on Energy Research and Development. Dept. of Energy's funding request for the Superconducting Super Collider. Hearing, 100th Congress, 1st session. Apt. 7, 1987. [Not yet printed]