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On July 1August 29, 2025, Thailand's Constitutional Court—a powerful force in Thai politics that has historically which historically has favored the military, the monarchy, and traditional elites—suspended theformally removed prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, while it deliberates on a petition to remove her from office from office for ethics violations. Paetongtarn, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (2001-2006), had, has led Thailand since August 2024, heading a coalition formed in part to prevent the reformist Move Forward Party (which won a plurality of votes in 2023 elections) from taking office. If Paetongtarn is removed, it is unclear what type of government might succeed hers, raisingforming a government. Following Paetongtarn's removal, a new, minority coalition government was formed and promised elections within four months; it is not clear whether new elections will produce a credible, stable government. The continued political turmoil raises uncertainty in a long-time U.S. military ally and economic partner.
The suspension stemsPaetongtarn's Removal and Thailand's Current Government
Paetongtarn's removal stemmed from a reignited border dispute with Cambodia and a leaked call between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, during which local observers say Paetongtarn adopted a deferential tone towards the Cambodian leader and criticized a royally appointed Thai military commander. On May 28, 2025, Thai and Cambodian military forces exchanged fire over a section of their shared border. The clash reportedly left. Cross-border gunfire on May 28 resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier dead and prompted troop build-ups, escalatory rhetoric, and retaliatory economic measures on both sides. During thea June 15 call, Paetongtarn to ameliorate tensions, Paetongtarn adopted a deferential tone and referred to Hun Sen as "uncle" (an honorific) and to a Thai military commander as "from the opposite side." Following the leak,Paetongtarn defended her deferential tone with Hun Sen, a long-time friend of the Shinawatra family, as a negotiating tactic. The Bhumjaithai Party left her ruling coalition and called for a vote of no-confidence, and large-scale protests in Bangkok called for her resignation, and 36. Thirty-six members of the Thai Senate, which is dominated by allies of the royal establishment and the military, filed ethics charges and petitioned the Constitutional Court for her removal. Polling indicated Paetongtarn's approval rating, which was 30% in the first quarter of 2025, dropped below 10% in June.
On July 24, Thai and Cambodian forces clashed in multiple locations along their disputed border. Both sides have blamed the other for provoking the escalation in the conflict, which has included cross-border artillery shelling by both sides and attacks by Thai F-16 fighter jets on Cambodian military targets. At least 36 people have been killed in the fighting, and as many as 300,000 civilians have fled on both sides of the border. On July 28, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Interim Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai met in Malaysia, this year's chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and agreed to an "immediate and unconditional" ceasefire. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with their counterparts in each country prior to the agreement, and U.S. officials were present at the ceasefire negotiations.
Thailand's troubled democracy has been an issue of congressional interest at least since military coups d'état in 2006 and 2014. Several popularly elected leaders have been ousted for charges of corruption or electoral fraud, moves seen by some independent analysts as politically motivated, and some observers have assessed that Thailand's political instability has distracted it from the role it has played as a leader in Southeast Asia. The ongoing situation presents several considerations for Congress in its oversight of U.S. policy towards Thailand and of broader policy in Southeast Asia. Thailand offers access and cooperation to U.S. military, law enforcement, and intelligence organizations. Prolonged political turmoil could limit the Thai government's ability to make decisions, and ultimately could prompt Thai conservatives to call for a military takeover. Such a move would trigger congressionally mandated restrictions on U.S. diplomatic and military programs and could cause tensions in the U.S.-Thailand relationship, as it did in the fallout from a military coup d'état in 2014.
Congress over the past decade has worked through statements, resolutions, legislation, and hearings to shape U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia, strengthen U.S. ties with Thailand and the region, and promote democracy and human rights in Thailand. Thailand has received U.S. funding for International Military Education and Training (IMET), maritime domain awareness, and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) efforts. Going forward, Congress could investigate and conduct oversight of administration efforts to manage tensions and Thailand's political instability, particularly in light of the close U.S.-Thai security relationship.
Paetongtarn defended her deferential tone in her call with Hun Sen, a long-time friend of the Shinawatra family, as a negotiating tactic, but nationalist criticism has grown. The conservative Bhumjaithai Party, the second largest in the government, left her ruling coalition and called for a vote of no-confidence. Thousands of nationalist demonstrators took to the streets to demand Paetongtarn's resignation.
Thailand's Constitutional Court has become increasingly politicized over the past two decades, and has dissolved 34 political parties—many of them led by the Shinawatras and their allies—since 2006. The court gave the prime minister 15 days to mount her defense; she requested an extension, and the court has not indicated when it might rule on the charges. In the interim, a deputy prime minister is serving in her stead, and Paetongtarn remains in the cabinet as culture minister following a cabinet reshuffle. With a reduced majority in the House of Representatives following the departure of the Bhumjaithai Party, Paetongtarn's government does not have the parliamentary majority necessary to pass legislation, and observers say her primary options are to resign or call snap elections. Some observers have assessed that the military could more directly involve itself in resolving the crisis or choosing the next government.
The current political crisis is the latest in a series of confrontations in which traditional power centers, including military and royalist factions, have sought to restrict the political power of populists and younger reformists seeking to challenge the role of the military and monarchy in politics. Former Prime Minister Thaksin (2001-2006) pioneered using appeals to historically politically disenfranchised and disengaged populations, including rural and working-class voters, to win elections. In 2005 elections, Thaksin became the first Thai prime minister to complete a full four-year term in office, and the first to lead his party to win an absolute majority in the House of Representatives. He was ousted by the military in 2006. The ongoing power struggle has resulted in two decades of political deadlock, periodic mass protests, and a violent military crackdown in 2010.
Reformist opposition parties grew in stature during and after 2019 elections, in which the Future Forward Party won an unexpected 80 seats in the House of Representatives. The party was banned in 2020 by Thailand's Constitutional Court, but Future Forward's successor party, the Move Forward Party, topped the 2023 elections. Polling by Thailand's National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) indicates that the People's Party—formed after the court disbanded Move Forward—remains Thailand's most popular party. These parties have sought, among other goals, to restrict the role of the military in politics and challenge Thailand's strict lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticism of the monarchy and is applied broadly to silence critics of the military and government. Seeking to limit the reformist opposition, Thaksin loyalists and military-backed parties in 2023 agreed to form the governing coalition now led by Paetongtarn.
The current political crisis is the latest in a series of confrontations in which traditional power centers, including military and royalist factions, have sought to restrict the political power of populists and younger reformists seeking to challenge the role of the military and monarchy in politics. Thaksin pioneered using appeals to historically politically disenfranchised and disengaged populations, including rural and working-class voters, to win elections. In 2005, Thaksin became the first Thai prime minister to complete a full four-year term in office, and the first to lead his party to win an absolute majority in the House of Representatives. He was ousted by the military in 2006. The ongoing power struggle has resulted in two decades of political deadlock, periodic mass protests, a violent military crackdown in 2010, and another coup in 2014. The Constitutional Court has removed several popularly elected leaders on charges of corruption or electoral fraud over those decades, moves seen by some independent analysts as politically motivated.
Reformist parties grew in stature during and after the 2019 elections, in which the Future Forward Party won an unexpected 80 seats in the House of Representatives. The party was banned in 2020 by Thailand's Constitutional Court. Its successor party, the Move Forward Party, topped the 2023 elections but the military-appointed Senate blocked it from forming a government, and the court dissolved the party. Polling indicates its successor People's Party remains Thailand's most popular party. These parties have sought, among other goals, to restrict the role of the military in politics and challenge Thailand's lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticism of the monarchy and is applied broadly to silence critics of the military and government. In 2023, after Move Forward was blocked, Thaksin loyalists and military-backed parties (including Bhumjaithai) formed the governing coalition once led by Paetongtarn.
Polling after Anutin's election indicates that the People's Party remains more popular than Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai; however, 21% of respondents indicated they are undecided about which party they would vote for if an election were held immediately. With the People's Party in position to perform well in snap elections and the political power of Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras diminished, the composition of a future majority government is uncertain. If the People's Party (or Pheu Thai) achieve results similar to those in 2023 in new elections but are prevented from forming a government, it could raise questions about the state of Thailand's democracy.
Thailand's troubled democracy has been an issue of congressional concern at least since military coups d'état in 2006 and 2014. Congress over the past decade has worked through statements, resolutions, legislation, and hearings to shape U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia, strengthen U.S. ties with Thailand and the region, and promote democracy and human rights in Thailand. Thailand offers access and cooperation to U.S. military, law enforcement, and intelligence organizations, and historically has been a regional leader. Prolonged political turmoil could limit the Thai government's ability to make decisions and fully participate in regional initiatives, and observers note that the Thai-Cambodian border dispute has demonstrated the military's continued dominance in Thai politics and civil-military relations. Thailand has received U.S. funding for International Military Education and Training (IMET), maritime domain awareness, and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) efforts. Congress could investigate and conduct oversight of administration efforts to manage tensions and Thailand's political instability, particularly in light of the U.S.-Thai security relationship and the Royal Thai Armed Forces' continued role in government. Previous administrations have restricted certain assistance to the government of Thailand after military coups, including in 2014, consistent with annual appropriations legislation regarding coups d'état (in its current form, P.L. 118-47, §7008 of Division F, carried forward into FY2025 via continuing resolutions). The first Trump Administration lifted coup-related aid restrictions on Thailand in 2019, after the country held elections.