Congressional Research Service 2

• Israel. What risks Israel might accept in an effort to counter and deter Iran and its allies, and to return some 60,000 evacuees to northern Israel. Such risks may affect Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas and prospects for a cease-fire, as well as its overall military and self-defense capacity.

• Iran. How Iran perceives that its responses, including to the killing of a key allied leader in its capital just after its new president took office, may strengthen or weaken its capacity to deter future Israeli military operations against it or its partners.

• Hamas. What the implications are of Haniyeh’s reported killing for Hamas’s approach to cease-fire and hostage negotiations with Israel, and for Hamas’s broader objectives in Gaza, the West Bank, and the wider region.

• Hezbollah. Whether Hezbollah’s military options and capabilities would strengthen its deterrence of Israel or magnify the threat of escalation, when considered alongside the group’s relations with Iran and its own future as a militia and political party in troubled Lebanon.

Issues for Congress

In assessing potential legislative and oversight options, Congress may consider the following.

U.S. Support for Israel and Other Partners

Escalation could have political-military implications for Israel and other U.S. partners in the Middle East, and affect bilateral and multilateral U.S. coordination efforts regarding regional security. Israel may face challenges in maintaining military strength vis-à-vis Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank, while also facing threats or potential threats from Iran and Iran-backed actors in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Hezbollah’s battle- tested militia, proximity to Israel, and large arsenal of drones, rockets, and missiles appears to pose a considerably greater sustained threat to Israel than Hamas does.

Congress and the Biden Administration may consider the nature of Israeli operations and any potential shortfalls in Israel’s defense capacity and stockpiles when weighing future direct U.S. involvement in Israel’s defense; the movement and use of military assets and personnel to and within the region; and/or the timing, nature, and volume of arms shipments. After the Golan Heights strike, the White House said that Israel had a right to respond, while also stating that the United States seeks to avoid broader regional war. On July 30, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said, “we’ve committed to helping Israel defend itself for whatever it takes.”

Impact on U.S. Forces/Citizens

Heightened regional conflict may put at further risk thousands of U.S. military personnel deployed to and near the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf, along with U.S. citizens residing in the region. Prior to the late July incidents, the U.S. Navy had deployed a 4,000-person Wasp Amphibious Ready Group to the eastern Mediterranean.

Potential Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire and Gaza Transition

The Biden Administration and some Members of Congress have been actively pushing for an Israel- Hamas cease-fire and hostage-prisoner exchange (based on a proposal endorsed by the U.N. Security Council) that they assert could ultimately lead to the end of the war in Gaza, expedite a political and security transition there, and bolster humanitarian assistance.

Congressional Research Service 3

IN12398 · VERSION 3 · UPDATED

It is unclear whether July 2024 strikes and attacks, including Israel’s possible killing of top Hamas military leader Muhammad Deif, and reports of general attrition to Hamas’s fighting strength might affect the timing and terms of a cease-fire deal, and whether a deal (if reached) might help calm regional tensions more broadly. Egyptian and Qatari officials who help mediate talks have suggested that Haniyeh’s killing could scuttle or delay the negotiations. A senior Hamas official has remarked, “the absence of one comrade or another does not change the movement’s compass on any issues.”

Author Information

Jim Zanotti Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs

^{Clayton Thomas}

Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs

Disclaimer

This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.