Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
January 26, 2024
Congress has played a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, authorizing extensive U.S. sanctions, seeking to influence diplomatic engagement with Iran, funding and authorizing support
Clayton Thomas
to U.S. partners facing Iranian threats, and enacting legislation that allows Congress to review
Specialist in Middle
agreements related to Iran’s nuclear program, a key concern for U.S. policymakers. The October
Eastern Affairs
2023 attack on Israel led by the Palestinian group Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization
which Iran has long supported, and ongoing attacks against U.S. forces and other targets in the region by other Iran-backed groups, have attracted significant congressional attention. U.S. and
Israeli officials have stated that they do not have evidence of the Iranian government’s direct involvement in the October 7 attack, but that they hold Iran broadly complicit because of its support for Hamas. The Iranian government’s human rights violations and close relationships with Russia and China also pose challenges for the United StatesApril 22, 2024
Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been largely antagonistic since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, with tensions spiking again since 2023. Of
Clayton Thomas
particular concern for U.S. policymakers in 2024 are Iran’s regional activities and those of its
Specialist in Middle
partners in light of the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel; ongoing attacks against U.S.
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forces and additional targets in the region by other Iran-backed groups such as the Houthis; and
the first-ever direct Iranian military attack against Israel in April 2024. The Iranian government’s human rights violations, its nuclear program, and its increasingly close relationships with Russia
and China also pose challenges for the United States. Congress has played a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, including by authorizing extensive U.S. sanctions, seeking to influence diplomatic engagement with Iran, and funding support to U.S. partners facing Iranian threats. Selected issues on which Congress has engaged include: . Selected issues on which Congress has engaged include:
Iran’s Foreign Policy and Support for Terrorist Groups. Iran’s government seeks, among other goals, to erode U.S. Iran’s government seeks, among other goals, to erode U.S.
influence in the Middle East while projecting power in neighboring states by backing a range of regional armed groups, influence in the Middle East while projecting power in neighboring states by backing a range of regional armed groups,
including including
some U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs)Hamas, Hezbollah, and other U.S.-designated terrorist organizations. Since the outbreak of war in Gaza, Iran-backed . Since the outbreak of war in Gaza, Iran-backed
groups throughout the Middle East (which sometimes refer to themselves as the “axis of resistance”) have conducted attacks groups throughout the Middle East (which sometimes refer to themselves as the “axis of resistance”) have conducted attacks
against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria and international shipping in the Red Sea, drawing retaliatory U.S. military action. against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria and international shipping in the Red Sea, drawing retaliatory U.S. military action.
Observers debate the nature of Tehran’s relationships with and influence over these groups. While neither the United States Observers debate the nature of Tehran’s relationships with and influence over these groups. While neither the United States
nor Iran appears to seek a direct military confrontation, the evolving threat perceptions, political calculations, and strategic nor Iran appears to seek a direct military confrontation, the evolving threat perceptions, political calculations, and strategic
goals of multiple actors in a dynamic combat environment could increase the risk of such a conflictgoals of multiple actors in a dynamic combat environment could increase the risk of such a conflict
, particularly in light of Iran’s unprecedented April 2024 attack on Israel. Israeli, U.S., and other partner forces reportedly intercepted almost all of the Iranian drones and missiles used in that attack; days later, Israel reportedly responded with an attack near an Iranian military base..
Prisoner Exchange and Fund Transfer. In September 2023, the United States and Iran concluded a prisoner exchange and In September 2023, the United States and Iran concluded a prisoner exchange and
the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds
from South Korea to Qatar. Some in Congress have to Qatar. Some in Congress have
criticized the movecriticized the move
, and ; the Biden Administration has the Biden Administration has
reportedly agreed tosaid it will prevent Iran’s use of the funds prevent Iran’s use of the funds
since October 2023in the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel. .
Iran’s Nuclear Program. U.S. policymakers have for decades signaled concern . U.S. policymakers have for decades signaled concern
that Tehran might seek to develop nuclear weapons, though Iranian leaders deny such ambitions. The JCPOAabout Iran’s nuclear program. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) imposed restraints on Iran’s nuclear imposed restraints on Iran’s nuclear
programactivities in exchange in exchange
for relief from most for relief from most
U.S. and international sanctions;U.S. and U.N. Security Council economic sanctions. In 2018, the Trump Administration ceased U.S. the Trump Administration ceased U.S.
participation in the JCPOAparticipation in the JCPOA
and reimposed sanctions that the Obama Administration had lifted. Since the reimposition of U.S. sanctions, Iran has decreased its, reimposing U.S. sanctions, and Biden Administration attempts to revive the JCPOA stalled in fall 2022. Iran has since decreased compliance with compliance with
theits JCPOA nuclear commitments nuclear commitments
of the JCPOA. Iranand barred some international barred some international
inspectors and reportedly increased its nuclear activities inspectors in the context of heightened regional tensionsin the context of heightened regional tensions
in late 2023. Biden Administration attempts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) via indirect negotiations stalled in fall 2022.
Nationwide Protests. The September 2022 death of 22-year-old . The U.S. intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking nuclear weapons-related activities, but that Iran could enrich enough uranium for three nuclear devices within weeks if it chose to do so.
Human Rights. Iran’s authoritarian government is accused of overseeing and perpetrating a wide range of human rights abuses, including the violent repression of protests like those that broke out after the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for allegedly violating Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for allegedly violating
Iran’s mandatory Iran’s mandatory
hijab (or head covering) law and died in custody(or head covering) law and died in custody
, sparked nationwide unrest. The regime cracked down violently against protesters, killing hundreds, and restricted internet use. The. Those protests appear to have subsided but the protests appear to have subsided but the
grievances underlying them remain unresolvedgrievances underlying them remain unresolved
amid continued government repression. .
Sanctions. Since 1979, successive U.S. Administrations have imposed economic sanctions in an effort to change various Since 1979, successive U.S. Administrations have imposed economic sanctions in an effort to change various
aspects of Iran’s behavior, often at the direction of Congress. U.S. sanctions include measures targeting Iran’s energy sector, aspects of Iran’s behavior, often at the direction of Congress. U.S. sanctions include measures targeting Iran’s energy sector,
its arms and weapons-related technology transfers, its financial sector, and various non-its arms and weapons-related technology transfers, its financial sector, and various non-
oilenergy industries and sectors. industries and sectors.
Iran’s Military and Foreign Policy. In addition to its support for allied groups throughout the Middle East In addition to its support for allied groups throughout the Middle East
and arms sales elsewhere, Iran maintains , Iran maintains
what U.S. officials describe as “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region” and has developed a range of what U.S. officials describe as “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region” and has developed a range of
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These activities give Iran considerable regional influence, which the Iranian government unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These activities give Iran considerable regional influence, which the Iranian government
has sought to reinforce by taking steps to strengthen its economic and military ties with China and Russia—for example, by has sought to reinforce by taking steps to strengthen its economic and military ties with China and Russia—for example, by
exporting UAVs to bolster Russian military operations in Ukraine and selling oil to China. exporting UAVs to bolster Russian military operations in Ukraine and selling oil to China.
The U.S. government has used various
The U.S. government has used various
policy tools, including comprehensive sanctions, limited military action, and tools, including comprehensive sanctions, limited military action, and
diplomatic engagement with leaders in Iran and other countries to counter what the U.S. officials describe as Iranian threats diplomatic engagement with leaders in Iran and other countries to counter what the U.S. officials describe as Iranian threats
to U.S. interests. to U.S. interests.
As of 2024, theThe Iranian government faces some challenges at home but retains considerable influence in the Iranian government faces some challenges at home but retains considerable influence in the
Middle East region, is developing new ties to Russia and China (including via Middle East region, is developing new ties to Russia and China (including via
its prospectiveIran’s BRICS membership), and BRICS membership), and
remains able to contest U.S. interests in the region and beyond. In this context, Members of Congress may consider remains able to contest U.S. interests in the region and beyond. In this context, Members of Congress may consider
questions related to U.S. and Iranian policy goals, the stability of Iran’s government, and efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence and U.S. and Iranian policy goals, the stability of Iran’s government, and efforts to counter Iran’s regional influence and
deter its nuclear development activities. deter its nuclear development activities.
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2928 Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
Contents
Overview and Issues for Congress .................................................................................................. 1
Rising Regional Tensions and Conflict: The United States, Iran, and the “Axis of
Resistance” ........... ........................................................................................................................ 2
Background: Iran’s Foreign Policy ........................................................................................... 32
Iran, Hamas, and the October 7, 2023, Attacks on Israel .......................................................... 4
U.S. Policy amid “Axis of Resistance” Attacks ........................................................................ 5
Iraq and Syria ...................................................................................................................... 65
Yemen and the Red Sea ...................................................................................................... 76
Lebanon and Hezbollah ...................................................................................................... 8
U.S.-Iran Relations: Background, Recent Approaches, and Developments in 20237
Iran-Israel Conflict and Iran’s April 2024 Attack on Israel ....................... 9
Biden Administration Policy ...................................... 8
U.S.-Iran Relations: Background and Recent Approaches ............................................................. 1011
Developments in 2023under the Biden Administration ....................................................................................................... 11
12
Iran’s Relations with China and Russia Russia and China .............................................................................. 13
........... 14 Iran’s Political System ................................................................................................................... 1516
2022-2023 Political Protests ................................................................................................... 16
U.S. Policy Responses to the Protests ............................................................................... 17
Iran’s Military: Structure and Capabilities .................................................................................... 18
Iran’s Nuclear Program.................................................................................................................. 20
Issues for Congress ........................................................................................................................ 22
Sanctions ..U.S. Sanctions ............................................................................................................................... 22
Oversight of Negotiations and Possible Nuclear Agreement .................................................. 23
Outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 24
Figures
Figure 1. Iran at a Glance ................................................................................................................ 1
Figure 2. Selected Iran-Backed Groups ........................................................................................... 3
Contacts
Author Information ........................................................................................................................ 2625
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Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
Overview and Issues for Congress
The Islamic Republic of Iran, the second-largest country in the Middle East by size (after Saudi The Islamic Republic of Iran, the second-largest country in the Middle East by size (after Saudi
Arabia) and population (after Egypt), has for decades played an assertive, and by many accounts Arabia) and population (after Egypt), has for decades played an assertive, and by many accounts
destabilizing, role in the region and beyond. Iran’s influence stems from its oil reserves (the destabilizing, role in the region and beyond. Iran’s influence stems from its oil reserves (the
world’s fourth largest), its status as the world’s most populous Shia Muslim country, and its active world’s fourth largest), its status as the world’s most populous Shia Muslim country, and its active
support for political and armed groups (including several U.S.-designated terrorist organizations) support for political and armed groups (including several U.S.-designated terrorist organizations)
throughout the Middle East.throughout the Middle East.
Attacks by those groups against Israel, U.S. forces, and other targets in the region have increased in late 2023 and early 2024.
Figure 1. Iran at a Glance
Geography
Total Area: 1,648,195 sq km (636,372 sq. miles), 2.5 times the size of Texas 1,648,195 sq km (636,372 sq. miles), 2.5 times the size of Texas
People
Population: 87,590,873 (17th largest in the world) 87,590,873 (17th largest in the world)
% of Population 14 or Younger: 23.5% 23.5%
Religion: Muslim Muslim
99.698.5% (90-95% Shia, 5-10% Sunni), other (% (90-95% Shia, 5-10% Sunni), other (
Zoroastrian, Christian, and Jewish) 0.3% (2016) Literacy: 85.5% (male 90.4%, female 80.8%) (2016Christina, Baha’i, Zoroastrian, Jewish) 1.5% (2020) Literacy: 88.7% (male 92.4%, female 88.7%) (2020) )
Economy
GDP Per Capita (at purchasing power parity): $ $
19,550 (202321,220 (2024) )
Real GDP Growth: 2.9% (2022); 3.2% (20235.0% (2023); 2.5% (2024 forecast) forecast)
Year-on-year Inflation: 45.3% (202333% (2024 forecast) forecast)
Unemployment: 10% (20238% (2024 forecast) forecast)
Source: Graphic created by CRS. Fact information (2023 estimates unless otherwise specified) from Economist Graphic created by CRS. Fact information (2023 estimates unless otherwise specified) from Economist
Intelligence Unit, International Monetary Fund, and Central Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Unit, International Monetary Fund, and Central Intelligence Agency,
The World Factbook. .
Since the
Since the
1979 Iranian Revolution that ushered in the Islamic RepublicIranian Revolution that ushered in the Islamic Republic
in 1979, Iran has presented a , Iran has presented a
major foreign policy challenge for the United Statesmajor foreign policy challenge for the United States
. Successive, with successive U.S. Administrations U.S. Administrations
have identifiedidentifying Iran and its activities as a threat to the United States and its interests. Of particular Iran and its activities as a threat to the United States and its interests. Of particular
concern are the Iranian government’s nuclear program, its military capabilities, its support for concern are the Iranian government’s nuclear program, its military capabilities, its support for
armed factions and terrorist groups, and its partnerships with Russia and China. The U.S. armed factions and terrorist groups, and its partnerships with Russia and China. The U.S.
government has condemned the Iranian government’s human rights violations and detention of government has condemned the Iranian government’s human rights violations and detention of
U.S. citizens and others, and has wrestled with how to support protest movements in Iran. The U.S. citizens and others, and has wrestled with how to support protest movements in Iran. The
U.S. government has used a range of policy tools intended to reduce the threat posed by Iran, U.S. government has used a range of policy tools intended to reduce the threat posed by Iran,
including sanctions, limited military action, and diplomatic engagement. Despite these efforts, including sanctions, limited military action, and diplomatic engagement. Despite these efforts,
Iran’s regional influence and strategic capabilities remain considerable and have arguably increased.
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Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
Iran’s regional influence and strategic capabilities remain considerable and have arguably increased.
Congress has played a key role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, providing for extensive U.S. Congress has played a key role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, providing for extensive U.S.
sanctions, providing aid and authorizing arms sales for partners threatened by Iran, seeking to sanctions, providing aid and authorizing arms sales for partners threatened by Iran, seeking to
influence negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, and enacting legislation that allows Congress influence negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, and enacting legislation that allows Congress
to review related agreements. Much of that legislative energy was related to the 2015 Joint to review related agreements. Much of that legislative energy was related to the 2015 Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which restricted Iran’s nuclear program in return for Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which restricted Iran’s nuclear program in return for
relief from relief from
somemost U.S. and international sanctions; the Trump Administration ceased U.S. U.S. and international sanctions; the Trump Administration ceased U.S.
participation in the agreement in 2018. In 2021-2022, as the Biden Administration engaged in participation in the agreement in 2018. In 2021-2022, as the Biden Administration engaged in
negotiations intended to reestablish mutual compliance with the JCPOA, Members expressed a negotiations intended to reestablish mutual compliance with the JCPOA, Members expressed a
range of views, some in support of and others opposed to renewing the agreement. range of views, some in support of and others opposed to renewing the agreement.
The prominence of the JCPOA in U.S. policy towards Iran waned in late 2022 as negotiations
The prominence of the JCPOA in U.S. policy towards Iran waned in late 2022 as negotiations
stalled amid other developments, such as nationwide unrest in Iran and Iran’s provision of stalled amid other developments, such as nationwide unrest in Iran and Iran’s provision of
weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. In September 2023, the United States and Iran concluded a weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. In September 2023, the United States and Iran concluded a
prisoner exchange and the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian assets from prisoner exchange and the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian assets from
South Korea to Qatar, attracting significant congressional attention. The October 2023 attack on South Korea to Qatar, attracting significant congressional attention. The October 2023 attack on
Israel led by Hamas, an Iran-backed Palestinian Sunni Islamist group (and U.S. designated Israel led by Hamas, an Iran-backed Palestinian Sunni Islamist group (and U.S. designated
Foreign Terrorist Organization, or FTO), and subsequent attacks on U.S. forces and other targets Foreign Terrorist Organization, or FTO), and subsequent attacks on U.S. forces and other targets
by Iran-supported groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, have by Iran-supported groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, have
dramatically escalatedincreased tensions in the tensions in the
region. Nevertheless, U.S. officials reportedly assess that the Iranian government does not seek direct military confrontation with the United States or Israel.1 Iran may use these conflicts as an opportunity to advance longstanding goals like leading opposition to Israel and reducing U.S. regional influence.
Rising Regional Tensions and Conflict: The United
States, Iran, and the “Axis of Resistance”
The October 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault on Israel, subsequent conflict in Gaza, and ongoing attacks by other Iran-backed groups throughout the Middle East have region.
Those tensions escalated further in April 2024, when Iran, in retaliation for a strike in Syria that killed senior Iranian military personnel, fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel (discussed further below). The attack, which represents the first-ever direct Iranian military strike against Israel, caused relatively little damage, with most projectiles successfully intercepted by Israeli, U.S., and other partner nation forces. Still, the attack marks a watershed in the long-simmering Iran-Israel conflict amid speculation about what the attack reveals about the evolution of Iranian strategic considerations and military capabilities. Israel’s reportedly limited retaliation, and Iran’s muted response to it, appear to have de-escalated tensions, but fears of a broader regional conflagration remain.
Rising Regional Tensions and Conflict The October 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault on Israel and subsequent rise of regional tensions have significant implications for significant implications for
the United States. the United States.
These Iran-backed groups, which sometimes refer to themselves as the “axis of Iran-backed groups, which sometimes refer to themselves as the “axis of
resistance,” have for decades threatened various U.S. interests but are now engaged militarily resistance,” have for decades threatened various U.S. interests but are now engaged militarily
against U.S. forces and partners simultaneously across multiple fronts to a degree not previously against U.S. forces and partners simultaneously across multiple fronts to a degree not previously
seen. Observers debate the varying nature of Tehran’s relationships with and influence over these seen. Observers debate the varying nature of Tehran’s relationships with and influence over these
groups. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek direct military engagement, the groups. While neither the United States nor Iran appears to seek direct military engagement, the
evolving threat perceptions, political calculationsevolving threat perceptions, political calculations
or miscalculations, , and strategic goals of multiple actors in a and strategic goals of multiple actors in a
dynamic combat environment could increase the risk of dynamic combat environment could increase the risk of
such a conflict, particularly in light of the unprecedented April 2024 Iranian attack on Israel.1
Background: Iran’s Foreign Policy Iran’s foreign policy appears to reflect overlapping and at times contradictory motivations, including countering perceived threats from the United States and U.S. partners like Israel;2
1such a conflict.2
1 David Sanger et al., “U.S. and Iran battle through proxies, warily avoiding each other,” New York Times, January 14, 2024.
2 Katie Bo Lillis, “US intelligence currently assesses Iran and its proxies are seeking to avoid a wider war with Israel,” Katie Bo Lillis, “US intelligence currently assesses Iran and its proxies are seeking to avoid a wider war with Israel,”
CNN, November 2, 2023;, November 2, 2023;
Peter Baker, “As U.S. and militias engage, White House worries about a tipping point,” Peter Baker, “As U.S. and militias engage, White House worries about a tipping point,”
New
York Times, January 21, 2024. , January 21, 2024.
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Background: Iran’s Foreign Policy
Iran’s foreign policy appears to reflect overlapping and at times contradictory motivations, including countering perceived threats from the United States and U.S. partners like Israel;3 2 Per the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment, “The Iranian regime sees itself as locked in an existential struggle with the (continued...)
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Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
positioning Iran as the defender of Shia Muslim communities and other groups that the Iranian positioning Iran as the defender of Shia Muslim communities and other groups that the Iranian
government government
viewscharacterizes as oppressed, such as the Palestinians; and the pursuit of Iran’s geopolitical as oppressed, such as the Palestinians; and the pursuit of Iran’s geopolitical
interests.interests.
43 To promote its priorities, Iran has backed a number of political and armed groups in the To promote its priorities, Iran has backed a number of political and armed groups in the
Middle East (see Figure 1) Middle East (see Figure 1).
Figure 2. Selected Iran-Backed Groups
Source: Created by CRS, based on U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism and other open sources.
Support for these groups, a pillar of the Iranian government’s foreign policy since the 1979 founding of the Islamic Republic, carries strategic benefits and risks for Iran. Iranian leaders might see supporting armed groups as a cost-effective way to project power, given that Iran lacks some key conventional military capabilities (such as modern fighter jets). Sponsorship of actors abroad could also deter potentially regime-destabilizing attacks on Iran itself, as part of what some as part of what some
Iran experts call a “forward defense” strategy, guided experts call a “forward defense” strategy, guided
by the principle that “Iran should fight its opponents outside its borders to prevent conflict inside by the principle that “Iran should fight its opponents outside its borders to prevent conflict inside
Iran.”5 Backing these groups also arguably gives the Iranian government a measure of plausible deniability as it seeks to advance its goals while avoiding direct conflict with the United States.6
Figure 2. Selected Iran-Backed Groups
Source: Created by CRS, based on U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism and other open sources.
Experts debate the nature of Iranian support for these groups. Some contend that the groups are “mere appendages” of Iran, following Tehran’s orders.7 Others assert that these groups have
3 Per the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment, “The Iranian regime sees itself as locked in an existential struggle with the Iran.”4 The sometimes-opaque nature of Iranian support for these groups may also allow Iran to attempt to deny responsibility for its beneficiaries’ actions.5 At the same time, the United States and others may still seek to hold Iran accountable, including for actions that Iran may not have specifically directed or approved in advance.
U.S. government statements have catalogued Iranian support to various armed groups, including the “funding, training, weapons, and equipment” that Iran provides to them.6 Experts debate the nature of Iranian influence over these groups and their activities. Some contend that the groups
United States and its regional allies.” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, United States and its regional allies.” Office of the Director of National Intelligence,
Annual Threat Assessment of the
U.S. Intelligence Community, February 6, 2023. , February 6, 2023.
43 For example, Iran has supported Christian-inhabited Armenia, rather than Shia-inhabited Azerbaijan, possibly in part For example, Iran has supported Christian-inhabited Armenia, rather than Shia-inhabited Azerbaijan, possibly in part
to thwart cross-border Azeri nationalism among Iran’s large Azeri minority. Borzou Daraghi, “Nagorno-Karaback: An to thwart cross-border Azeri nationalism among Iran’s large Azeri minority. Borzou Daraghi, “Nagorno-Karaback: An
unexpected conflict that tests and perplexes Iran,” Atlantic Council, November 9, 2020; Vali Kaleji, “Iran increasingly unexpected conflict that tests and perplexes Iran,” Atlantic Council, November 9, 2020; Vali Kaleji, “Iran increasingly
uneasy about threats to common border with Armenia,” uneasy about threats to common border with Armenia,”
Eurasia Daily Monitor, October 14, 2022. , October 14, 2022.
54 Amr Yossef, “Upgrading Iran’s military doctrine: An offensive ‘forward defense,’” Middle East Institute, December Amr Yossef, “Upgrading Iran’s military doctrine: An offensive ‘forward defense,’” Middle East Institute, December
10, 2019; Alex Vatanka, 10, 2019; Alex Vatanka,
Whither the IRGC of the 2020s? Is Iran’s Proxy Warfare Strategy of Forward Defense
Sustainable? New America, January 15, 2021. New America, January 15, 2021.
65 Nakissa Jahanbani et al., “How Iranian-backed militias do political signaling,” Nakissa Jahanbani et al., “How Iranian-backed militias do political signaling,”
Lawfare, December 18, 2023. , December 18, 2023.
7 Patrick Wintour, “As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?” Guardian, January 6, 2024.
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“varying degrees of autonomy” and sometimes have interests, and take actions, independent of those of the Iranian government.8
U.S. officials characterize the Iranian government’s support for these groups as a threat to U.S. interests and forces in the region. The 2023 intelligence community threat assessment predicted that
Iran will continue to threaten U.S. interests as it tries to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East, entrench its influence and project power in neighboring states and minimize threats to regime security…. Iranian-supported proxies will seek to launch attacks against U.S. forces and persons in Iraq and Syria, and perhaps in other countries and regions.6 State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2022.
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are “mere appendages” of Iran that directly follow Tehran’s orders.7 Others assert that these groups have their own origins and grievances, “varying degrees of autonomy,” and “symbiotic” relationships with Tehran, and sometimes take actions, independent of those of the Iranian government.8 The Intelligence Community’s 2024 Annual Threat Assessment describes the axis of resistance as “a loose consortium of like-minded terrorist and militant actors.”9 9
The Iranian government’s support for regional groups is coordinated by Iran’s
The Iranian government’s support for regional groups is coordinated by Iran’s
Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),. The IRGC is a parallel military institution to Iran’s regular armed a parallel military institution to Iran’s regular armed
forces thatforces, plays a major plays a major
unofficial role in Iran’s economyrole in Iran’s economy
, and is responsible for regime security.10 The IRGC-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) is the and is entrusted with the primary task of defending the Iranian government from challenges to its authority at home and abroad.10 The IRGC component “responsible for conducting covert lethal activities outside of Iran, including IRGC component “responsible for conducting covert lethal activities outside of Iran, including
asymmetric and terrorist asymmetric and terrorist
operations,” is the IRGC-Qods Force (IRGC-QF).operations.”11 Both the IRGC 11 Both the IRGC
and the IRGC-QF are designated for U.S. sanctions under terrorism-related authorities, as are and the IRGC-QF are designated for U.S. sanctions under terrorism-related authorities, as are
many of the regional armed groups that they support.
Iran’s government has also taken direct action to advance its interests, aggressively asserting claims to its territorial waters (including the 2016 seizure of U.S. sailors) and conducting military strikes on anti-Iran groups (including January 2024 missile strikes in Syria and Pakistan), and attacking shipping in the Persian Gulfmany of the Iran-supported regional armed groups below. .
Iran, Hamas, and the October 7, 2023, Attacks on Israel12
The Iranian government has backed Hamas for decades, going back nearly to the group’s The Iranian government has backed Hamas for decades, going back nearly to the group’s
inception in the 1980s.13 Since Hamas took de facto control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has inception in the 1980s.13 Since Hamas took de facto control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has
engaged in several rounds of conflict with Israel, with continued reported material and financial engaged in several rounds of conflict with Israel, with continued reported material and financial
support from Iran. Iran has aided Hamas despite Israeli-Egyptian restrictions on the transit of support from Iran. Iran has aided Hamas despite Israeli-Egyptian restrictions on the transit of
people and goods in place for Gaza since 2007; reported Iranian-supplied rockets provide Hamas people and goods in place for Gaza since 2007; reported Iranian-supplied rockets provide Hamas
with the ability to target population centers in central Israel.14 In a September 2020 publication, with the ability to target population centers in central Israel.14 In a September 2020 publication,
the State Department reported that “Iran historically provided up to $100 million annually in combined support to Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas.”15
U.S. and Israeli officials stated publicly in October that despite the Iranian government’s longstanding support for Hamas, they did not have evidence that the government of Iran played a direct role in planning or carrying out the October 7 assault.16 Still, they contended that “Iran is
7 Patrick Wintour, “As Middle East Crisis Grows, Does Iran have Control of its Proxy Forces?” Guardian, January 6, 2024.
8 Sara Harmouch and Nakissa Jahanbani, “How much influence does Iran have over its proxies?”
8 Sara Harmouch and Nakissa Jahanbani, “How much influence does Iran have over its proxies?”
Defense One, January , January
23, 2024. 23, 2024.
9 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 9 Office of the Director of National Intelligence,
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, ,
February February
6, 2023.
5, 2024. See also Erin Banco, “US Intelligence Officials Estimate Tehran Does Not have Full Control of its Proxy Groups,” Politico, February 1, 2024. 10 National Counterterrorism Center, “Foreign Terrorist Organizations: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” March 10 National Counterterrorism Center, “Foreign Terrorist Organizations: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” March
2022. 2022.
11 Ibid. Executive Order 13224 of September 23, 2001, “Blocking Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Persons
11 Ibid. Executive Order 13224 of September 23, 2001, “Blocking Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Persons
Who Commit, Threaten To Commit, or Support Terrorism,” 66 Who Commit, Threaten To Commit, or Support Terrorism,” 66
Federal Register 49079, as amended. 49079, as amended.
12 For more, see CRS In Focus IF12549, 12 For more, see CRS In Focus IF12549,
Hamas: Background, Current Status, and U.S. Policy, by Jim Zanotti and CRS , by Jim Zanotti and CRS
Report R47754, Report R47754,
Israel and Hamas October 2023 Conflict: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs), coordinated by Jim , coordinated by Jim
Zanotti, Jeremy M. Sharp, and Christopher M. Blanchard. Zanotti, Jeremy M. Sharp, and Christopher M. Blanchard.
13 The Iranian government has backed terrorist groups since the early 1980s, focused initially on supporting the Shia
13 The Iranian government has backed terrorist groups since the early 1980s, focused initially on supporting the Shia
Islamist group Hezbollah in Lebanon and pressuring Persian Gulf monarchies to cease their support for Iraq in its war Islamist group Hezbollah in Lebanon and pressuring Persian Gulf monarchies to cease their support for Iraq in its war
against Iran. After the first Palestinian against Iran. After the first Palestinian
intifada (or uprising) broke out in 1987 (the same year Hamas was founded), (or uprising) broke out in 1987 (the same year Hamas was founded),
Iran began to focus more on supporting Palestinian groups. See U.S. State Department, Iran began to focus more on supporting Palestinian groups. See U.S. State Department,
Patterns of Global Terrorism:
1986, January 1988 and , January 1988 and
Patterns of Global Terrorism: 1989, April 1990. , April 1990.
14 Fabian Hinz, “Iran transfers rockets to Palestinian groups,” Wilson Center, May 19, 2021; Adnan Abu Amer,
14 Fabian Hinz, “Iran transfers rockets to Palestinian groups,” Wilson Center, May 19, 2021; Adnan Abu Amer,
“Report outlines how Iran smuggles arms to Hamas,” “Report outlines how Iran smuggles arms to Hamas,”
Al-Monitor, April 9, 2021. , April 9, 2021.
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the State Department reported that “Iran historically provided up to $100 million annually in combined support to Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas.”15
U.S. and Israeli officials have stated publicly that despite the Iranian government’s longstanding support for Hamas, they do not have evidence that the government of Iran played a direct role in planning or carrying out the October 7 assault.16 Still, they have contended that “Iran is broadly 15 U.S. State Department, Outlaw Regime: A Chronicle of Iran’s Destructive Activities, September 2020. 16 U.S. State Department, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Dana Bash of CNN’s State of the Union,” October 8, 2023; “No evidence yet of Iran link to Hamas attack, says Israeli military,” Guardian, October 9, 2023.
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broadly complicit in these attacks,” given that Iran has been Hamas’s “primary backer for decades,” as complicit in these attacks,” given that Iran has been Hamas’s “primary backer for decades,” as
Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer said on October 9.17 Media accounts, citing a variety Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer said on October 9.17 Media accounts, citing a variety
of unnamed U.S. and foreign officials, of unnamed U.S. and foreign officials,
have varied in their assessments of Iranian involvement, varied in their assessments of Iranian involvement,
some indicating that Tehran may have been surprised by the October 7 attacks.18 some indicating that Tehran may have been surprised by the October 7 attacks.18
For their part, Iranian officials For their part, Iranian officials
have denied direct involvement but expressed enthusiastic support expressed enthusiastic support
for the assault. An October 7, 2023, post on the X account of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated, “God willing, the cancer of the usurper Zionist regime will be eradicated at the hands of the Palestinian people and the Resistance forces throughout the region.”19 In an October 10, 2023, speech, Khamenei praised the Hamas attack but said that Iran was not “behind this move.”20 According to a press report citing Iranian state media, President Ebrahim Raisi told Russian President Vladimir Putin in an October 16 call that Palestinian groups are “free and independent in making any decision they need, and naturally we support all the measures the resistance takes to combat Zionist aggression.”21
U.S. Policy amid “Axis of Resistance” Attacks
The Biden Administration has sought to avoid the regionalization of the Israel-Hamas war beyond Gaza, including the direct intervention of third parties or the spread of sustained conflict to other countries.22 At the same time, the Administration has sought to deter and respond to potentially escalatory attacks from Iran-backed groups in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.
From the outset of the conflict in October 2023, U.S. officials have consistently stated that Iran and the other nonstate actors it supports should not interfere. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on October 15, “We have means of communicating privately with Iran,” and also that the United States had used those means to convey the message that Iran should not become involved.23 For their part, Iranian officials have connected regional conflict to the war in Gaza; Iran’s foreign minister said in mid-January 2024 that an end to the conflict in Gaza “will lead to
15 U.S. State Department, Outlaw Regime: A Chronicle of Iran’s Destructive Activities, September 2020. 16 U.S. State Department, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Dana Bash of CNN’s State of the Union,” October 8, 2023; “No evidence yet of Iran link to Hamas attack, says Israeli military,” Guardian, October 9, 2023. for the assault but denied direct involvement.19
U.S. Policy amid “Axis of Resistance” Attacks Despite U.S. attempts to keep the conflict from spreading, Iran-backed groups across the region have attacked a range of targets since October 2023, including Israel and U.S. forces. The United States has sought to deter and respond to these attacks, including via military action. Iranian officials have tied ongoing regional conflict to the status of the war in Gaza. For example, Iran’s foreign minister said in mid-January 2024 that an end to the conflict in Gaza “will lead to an end of military actions and crises in the region.”20 The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Iran “will remain a threat to Israel and U.S. allies and interests in the region well after the Gaza conflict, and probably will continue arming and aiding its allies to threaten the United States.”21
Iraq and Syria
Iran has deeply rooted ties in neighboring Iraq, where it backs a number of powerful military and political actors, and with Syria, where it has for decades allied with the ruling Asad regime. Since 2017, Iran-backed groups have conducted attacks against U.S. forces (which have been in Iraq and Syria since 2014 and 2015, respectively, to support counter-Islamic State operations), sometimes prompting U.S. retaliatory airstrikes.
Those exchanges of fire became significantly more frequent after October 2023, with Iran-backed groups reportedly attacking U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria over 170 times between October 2023 and February 2024.22 Press reports citing the Defense Department stated that as of mid-February, 186 troops had been injured or killed in these attacks, including 130 traumatic brain injuries and three deaths.23 In response, the U.S. military has conducted occasional airstrikes on Iran-linked
17 “U.S. to offer ‘every kind of support’ to Israel on hostages, White House advisor says,” CBS News, October 9, 2023. 17 “U.S. to offer ‘every kind of support’ to Israel on hostages, White House advisor says,” CBS News, October 9, 2023.
18 Summer Said et al., “Iran helped plot attack on Israel over several weeks,” 18 Summer Said et al., “Iran helped plot attack on Israel over several weeks,”
Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2023; , October 8, 2023;
Joby Warrick et al., “Hamas received weapons and training from Iran, officials say,” Joby Warrick et al., “Hamas received weapons and training from Iran, officials say,”
Washington Post, October 9, , October 9,
2023; Warren Strobel, “Iran knew Hamas was planning attacks, but not timing of scale, U.S. says,” 2023; Warren Strobel, “Iran knew Hamas was planning attacks, but not timing of scale, U.S. says,”
Wall Street
Journal, October 11, 2023; Zachary Cohen et al., “Initial US intelligence suggests Iran was surprised by the Hamas , October 11, 2023; Zachary Cohen et al., “Initial US intelligence suggests Iran was surprised by the Hamas
attack on Israel,” attack on Israel,”
CNN, October 11, 2023; Adam Entous et al., “Early intelligence shows Hamas attack surprised , October 11, 2023; Adam Entous et al., “Early intelligence shows Hamas attack surprised
Iranian leaders, U.S. says,” Iranian leaders, U.S. says,”
New York Times, October 11, 2023. , October 11, 2023.
19 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), X post, October 7, 2023, at https://twitter.com/19 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), X post, October 7, 2023, at https://twitter.com/
khamenei_ir/status/1710752170096701778. Khamenei days earlier said much the same thing in public remarks. khamenei_ir/status/1710752170096701778. Khamenei days earlier said much the same thing in public remarks.
“Normalization with Israel like ‘backing the wrong horse’: Leader,” “Normalization with Israel like ‘backing the wrong horse’: Leader,”
Tehran Times, October 3, 2023. , October 3, 2023.
20 “Inside story: Iran’s supreme leader strongly rejects role in Hamas attack,” “Inside story: Iran’s supreme leader strongly rejects role in Hamas attack,”
Amwaj.media, October 10, 2023. , October 10, 2023.
21 “Putin, Raisi discuss Israel-Gaza war,” Rudaw, October 16, 2023. 22 See, for example, U.S. State Department, Secretary Antony J. Blinken at a Press Availability, January 9, 2024. 23 CBS News, “Transcript: National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on ‘Face the Nation,’” October 15, 2023.
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an end of military actions and crises in the region.”24 He earlier, in October 2023, stated that Iran “cannot remain a spectator” in Israel’s war against Hamas and that if measures to end Israeli operations in Gaza fail, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened.”25
Two of those fronts appear to be Iraq and Syria, where Iran-backed Iraqi groups have significantly escalated attacks on U.S. forces, and Yemen, where the Iran-backed Houthi movement has targeted international shipping. U.S. forces have responded with air and missile strikes in both theaters. Clashes between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, perhaps Iran’s closest and strongest regional proxy, have also increased, raising the specter of regional conflict. While U.S. officials reportedly assess that Iranian leaders seek to avoid direct confrontation with the United States or Israel, the growing number of regional flashpoints raises the risk of such a conflict.26
Iraq and Syria
Iran has deeply rooted ties in neighboring Iraq, where it backs a number of powerful military and political actors, and with Syria, where it has for decades allied with the ruling Asad regime. Since 2017, Iran-backed groups have conducted attacks against U.S. forces (which have been in Iraq and Syria since 2014 and 2015, respectively, to support counter-Islamic State operations), sometimes prompting U.S. retaliatory airstrikes.
Those exchanges of fire have become significantly more frequent since October 2023.27 As of late January 2024, Iran-backed groups have reportedly attacked U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria 140 times since October 17, 2023 (52 times in Iraq, 75 in Syria);28 media sources affiliated with the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” a catch-all descriptor for Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups operating in Iraq and Syria, have claimed many of these actual or attempted assaults.29 These attacks have mostly used one-way attack drones and rockets, but also include at least one short-range ballistic missile attack. Those attacks have left “nearly 70” U.S. personnel injured, with most returning to duty “in short order,” per the Pentagon.30
In response, the U.S. military has conducted occasional airstrikes on Iran-linked 20 “Iran foreign minister in Davos: Attacks on Israel will end if Gaza war stops,” Reuters, January 17, 2024. 21 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, February 5, 2024.
22 Carla Babb, “US forces attacked 151 times in Iraq, Syria during Biden presidency,” VOA, November 17, 2023.U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), “Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds a Press Briefing,” January 4, 2024. For a frequently updated collection of claimed attacks, see Michael Knights, Amir al-Kaabi, and Hamdi Malik, “Tracking Anti-U.S. Strikes in Iraq and Syria During the Gaza Crisis,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 9, 2024.
23 Rebecca Kheel, “Luck has prevented more US casualties from drone attacks in Iraq and Syria, top Mideast general says,” Military.com, March 7, 2024.
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targets in both targets in both
Syria and Iraq, including some facilities used by IRGC personnel. In reporting to Congress about December 2023 strikes against facilities in Iraq used by Iran-affiliated groups, President Biden stated those strikes, “were intended to degrade and disrupt the ongoing series of attacks against the United States and our partners, and to deter Iran and Iran-backed militia groups from conducting or supporting further attacks on United States personnel and facilities.”31 On January 4, a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed a leader of a prominent Iran-backed Iraqi militia (Harakat al Nujaba, a U.S. Specially Designated Global Terrorist group), prompting Iraqi Prime Minister
24 “Iran foreign minister in Davos: Attacks on Israel will end if Gaza war stops,” Reuters, January 17, 2024. 25 Maziar Motamedi, “Iran warns Israel of regional escalation if Gaza ground offensive launched,” Al Jazeera, October 15, 2023.
26 Sanger, et al., op cit. 27 Carla Babb, “US forces attacked 151 times in Iraq, Syria during Biden presidency,” VOA, November 17, 2023. 28 U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), “Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds a Press Briefing,” January 4, 2024.
29 For a frequently updated collection of claimed attacks, see Michael Knights, Amir al-Kaabi, and Hamdi Malik, “Tracking Anti-U.S. Strikes in Iraq and Syria During the Gaza Crisis,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, December 5, 2023.
30 Peter Baker, “As U.S. and militias engage, White House worries about a tipping point,” New York Times, January 21, 2024.
31 Letter from President Biden to President pro tempore Patty Murray, December 27, 2023 (EC3157, January 9, 2023).
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Syria and Iraq, including some facilities used by IRGC personnel. After a January 2024 attack killed three U.S. service members in Jordan, the United States launched air strikes on 85 Iran-backed militia sites across Syria and Iraq.24 Press reports citing Iraqi and Iranian sources said that after the attack in Jordan IRGC-QF Commander Ismael Qaani visited Iraq and prevailed upon Iraqi armed groups to halt attacks on U.S. and coalition personnel.25 As of April 2024, there appears to have been one attack against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since February.26
A January 2024 U.S. drone strike in Baghdad that killed a leader of a prominent Iran-backed Iraqi militia prompted Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani to announce that he would seek to end the U.S.-led coalition military Mohammed Shia al Sudani to announce that he would seek to end the U.S.-led coalition military
presence in Iraqpresence in Iraq. As of April 2024, the United States and Iraq are engaged in consultations about the future of bilateral military cooperation. The United States has around 2,500 troops in Iraq; the government of Iraq could . The United States has around 2,500 troops in Iraq; the government of Iraq could
invite some U.S. forces to remain in Iraq to continue training pursuant to bilateral security invite some U.S. forces to remain in Iraq to continue training pursuant to bilateral security
negotiations.negotiations.
3227 Changes to the U.S. military presence in Iraq could have consequences for U.S. Changes to the U.S. military presence in Iraq could have consequences for U.S.
operations against Islamic State operations against Islamic State
fighters in Syria.
Yemen and the Red Sea28
The Iranian government has long backed the Houthi movement in Yemen (who are Zaydi Shia Muslims, as opposed to Iran’s Twelver Shia majorityfighters in Syria.
Separately, in January 2024, Iran carried out missile strikes in Syria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq against what it claimed were sites used by the Islamic State and Israeli intelligence, respectively.33 The Syria strikes were retaliation for the January 3, 2024, bombings in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed nearly 100 people and were claimed by the Islamic State, which has carried out terrorist attacks in Iran for years.34 The Iranian missile strikes in Iraq drew condemnation from the governments of the United States, many European countries, and Iraq itself, with the Iraqi government recalling its ambassador from Iran to protest the “attack on its sovereignty.”35
Yemen and the Red Sea36
The Iranian government has long backed the Houthi movement in Yemen (who are Shia Muslims, though from a different sect from that which predominates in Iran), reportedly giving the group ), reportedly giving the group
material support for years before the Houthis took control of Yemen’s capital and much of the material support for years before the Houthis took control of Yemen’s capital and much of the
north in 2014 and 2015.north in 2014 and 2015.
3729 Since then, the Houthis have battled forces of the Republic of Yemen Since then, the Houthis have battled forces of the Republic of Yemen
and the Saudi-led Arab coalition that backs it. Iran’s support to the Houthi movement in Yemen—and the Saudi-led Arab coalition that backs it. Iran’s support to the Houthi movement in Yemen—
including supplying ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as unmanned systems—has enabled the including supplying ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as unmanned systems—has enabled the
group to target U.S. partners, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.group to target U.S. partners, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
3830
The Houthis have espoused categorically anti-Israel views for decades, and since October 2023
The Houthis have espoused categorically anti-Israel views for decades, and since October 2023
have claimed several missile attacks against Israel, with many having been intercepted by Israeli have claimed several missile attacks against Israel, with many having been intercepted by Israeli
or U.S. forces.or U.S. forces.
39 More significantly31 More impactfully, the Houthis have asserted they are demonstrating solidarity , the Houthis have asserted they are demonstrating solidarity
with the Palestinians by with the Palestinians by
attacking vessels in the Red Sea, conducting over 30 attacks on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea between November 19, 2023, and January 22, 2024. launching dozens of drones and missiles at vessels in the Red Sea. These attacks have compelled many international shipping companies to abandon that waterway These attacks have compelled many international shipping companies to abandon that waterway
(through which approximately 10% of global trade transits) in favor of lengthier, costlier routes, (through which approximately 10% of global trade transits) in favor of lengthier, costlier routes,
which could have an impact on the global economy.which could have an impact on the global economy.
40
The United States deployed military assets to the region to respond to the Houthi attacks, thwarting Houthi hijackings of commercial vessels and exchanging fire with Houthi forces.41 In
32 Ahmed Rasheed and Phil Stewart, “Iraq prepares to close down US-led coalition’s mission – PM,” Reuters, January 5, 2024.
33 “Iran launches missile strikes in Iraq and Syria citing security threats,” Al Jazeera, January 15, 2024. 34 Farzin Nadimi, “Terrorist bombings in Iran: Implications and potential responses,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, January 5, 2024.
35 “Iraq recalls ambassador from Tehran after Iranian missiles strike Kurdish region,” France 24, January 16, 2024. 3632
In mid-December 2023, the United States announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian “with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering
24 Oren Liebermann and Natasha Bertrand, “US destroyed or damaged 84 of 85 targets in Iraq and Syira, officials say; no indications of Iranian casualties,” CNN, February 4, 2024.
25 Ahmed Rasheed, Parisa Hafezi, and Timour Azhari, “Iraqi armed groups dial down U.S. attacks on request of Iran commander,” Reuters, February 18, 2024. 26 Jared Szuba, “US troops in Syria down drone as threat of Iran-backed attacks returns,” Al Monitor, April 2, 2024. 27 Ahmed Rasheed and Phil Stewart, “Iraq prepares to close down US-led coalition’s mission – PM,” Reuters, January 5, 2024.
28 For more, see CRS Insight IN12301, For more, see CRS Insight IN12301,
Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Issues for Congress, by Jeremy M. Sharp. , by Jeremy M. Sharp.
37 See, for example, 29 Barak Salmoni et al., Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon, RAND, 2010; David Schenker, “Who’s behind the Houthis?” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, David Schenker, “Who’s behind the Houthis?” Washington Institute for Near East Policy,
February 22, 2010. February 22, 2010.
3830 Seth Jones et al., “The Iranian and Houthi war against Saudi Arabia,” Center for Strategic and International Studies Seth Jones et al., “The Iranian and Houthi war against Saudi Arabia,” Center for Strategic and International Studies
, December (CSIS), Dec. 21, 2021; Bruce Reidel, “Yemen war spreads to the UAE,” Brookings Institution, February 10, 2022. 21, 2021; Bruce Reidel, “Yemen war spreads to the UAE,” Brookings Institution, February 10, 2022.
39
31 Jon Gambrell, “Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim attacks on Israel, drawing their main sponsor Iran closer to Hamas Jon Gambrell, “Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim attacks on Israel, drawing their main sponsor Iran closer to Hamas
war,” Associated Press (AP), October 31, 2023. war,” Associated Press (AP), October 31, 2023.
40 Alex Mills, “The long shadow of the Red Sea shipping disruption,” Atlantic Council, January 8, 2024. 41 “US Navy seizes attackers who held Israel-linked tanker,” BBC News, November 27, 202332 Jason Dunn and Fernando Leibovici, “Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea: Local shock, global impact,” Center for Economic Policy Research, March 20, 2024. .
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November 2023, the Houthis reportedly shot down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle.42 In mid-December 2023, the United States announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian “with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.”43regional security and prosperity.”33 On January 11, 2024, after warnings from the On January 11, 2024, after warnings from the
United States and other countries, the U.S. and UK militaries launched airstrikes on a number of United States and other countries, the U.S. and UK militaries launched airstrikes on a number of
Houthi targets across Yemen; Houthi attacks (including Houthi targets across Yemen; Houthi attacks (including
onesome targeting targeting
a U.S. warshipU.S. warships) and U.S. ) and U.S.
airstrikes airstrikes
have continued in subsequent continued in subsequent
days. Also on January 11, 2024, U.S. forces seized a vessel “conducting illegal transport of advanced lethal aid from Iran to resupply Houthi forces;” two Navy SEALs were lost at sea in that operation and later declared deceased.44 U.S. officials have reportedly discussed plans for a “sustained” campaign to degrade Houthi capabilities, raising questions about U.S.-backed efforts to end the war in Yemen and meet humanitarian needs there.45 months. Ongoing Houthi attacks demonstrate sustained Houthi willingness and ability to conduct maritime attacks notwithstanding strikes that U.S. officials assess are degrading their military capability.34
In February 2024, the Defense Intelligence Agency released unclassified analysis finding that “Iranian aid has enabled the Houthis to initiate a campaign of missile and UAV attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea since November 2023.”35 The analysis further found that “[p]hotographs of weapons displayed and fired by Iran and the Houthis, as well as those illegally smuggled aboard boats from Iran, strongly suggest their Iranian origin.” Iranian material support to the Houthis may provide Iran with influence over some of the group’s capabilities and decisions, but Houthi leaders and officials may act independently and contrary to Iranian government preferences in some circumstances. The group’s rhetoric reflects strong nationalist views, and religious differences between the Houthi movement’s Zaydi Shia core constituency and the Iranian government’s Twelver Shia ideology may complicate their coordination and compatibility.
Lebanon and Hezbollah
Hezbollah, backed by Iran since the group’s 1982 founding, is one of the post powerful non-state
Hezbollah, backed by Iran since the group’s 1982 founding, is one of the post powerful non-state
armed groups in the world, arguably making it the “crown jewel” of Iranian foreign policy.armed groups in the world, arguably making it the “crown jewel” of Iranian foreign policy.
4636 One One
former U.S. official has described Lebanese Hezbollah as “Iran’s most successful – and most former U.S. official has described Lebanese Hezbollah as “Iran’s most successful – and most
lethal – export,” and assessed that Hezbollah is “no longer merely a subsidiary or proxy of Iran lethal – export,” and assessed that Hezbollah is “no longer merely a subsidiary or proxy of Iran
but rather an almost equal partner.”but rather an almost equal partner.”
47 The group reportedly has 100,000 fighters and37 Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has claimed that the group boasts over 100,000 fighters, but most outside estimates are in the range of 25,000 to 50,000. That figure includes the elite Radwan Force (anywhere from 2,500 to 10,000), made up of commandos trained to conduct offensive operations, including potentially into Israel.38 Hezbollah also holds also holds
seats in Lebanon’s parliament, where it is a member of the caretaker government. Hezbollah seats in Lebanon’s parliament, where it is a member of the caretaker government. Hezbollah
(along with Iran) has played a crucial role in supporting the Asad regime in neighboring Syria, (along with Iran) has played a crucial role in supporting the Asad regime in neighboring Syria,
where it has been the target of repeated Israeli airstrikes. Hezbollah fought an inconclusive 34-where it has been the target of repeated Israeli airstrikes. Hezbollah fought an inconclusive 34-
day war with Israel in 2006 that “killed some 1,100 people and displaced day war with Israel in 2006 that “killed some 1,100 people and displaced
nearly a million.”39 Hezbollah also has reportedly provided support to many other Iran-supported groups, including Hamas.40nearly a million.”48 Hezbollah has a longstanding, though formerly tense, relationship with Hamas.49
Since the October 2023 Hamas attacks, Hezbollah has periodically exchanged fire with Israeli
Since the October 2023 Hamas attacks, Hezbollah has periodically exchanged fire with Israeli
forces, prompting the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents from northern Israel and forces, prompting the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents from northern Israel and
southern Lebanon. These cross-border clashes have reportedly left over southern Lebanon. These cross-border clashes have reportedly left over
160 Hezbollah fighters dead and raised fears of a broader escalation in which Hezbollah’s arsenal of some 150,000 missiles and rockets could pose a grave threat to Israeli strategic sites and population centers.50
42 Eric Schmitt, “Houthi Rebels Shot Down a U.S. Drone Off Yemen’s Coast, Pentagon Says,” New York Times, November 8, 2023.
43 U.S. Department of Defense, “Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,” December 18, 2023. 44 U.S. CENTCOM, “USCENTCOM seizes Iranian advanced conventional weapons bound for Houthis,” January 16, 2024; “CENTCOM status update on missing Navy SEALs,” January 21, 2024. 45 Missy Ryan et al., “As Houthis vow to fight on, U.S. prepares for sustained campaign,” Washington Post, January 20, 2024.
46250 Hezbollah fighters
33 U.S. Department of Defense, “Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,” December 18, 2023.
34 DOD, “Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh Holds a Press Briefing,” February 20, 2024. 35 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Iran: Enabling Houthi Attacks Across the Middle East, February 2024. 36 Dana Khraiche, “Iran’s ‘crown jewel’ has much to lose from a full-blown war with Israel,” Dana Khraiche, “Iran’s ‘crown jewel’ has much to lose from a full-blown war with Israel,”
Bloomberg, November , November
17, 2023. 17, 2023.
4737 Jeffrey Feltman and Kevin Huggard, “On Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the risk of escalation,” Brookings Institution, Jeffrey Feltman and Kevin Huggard, “On Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the risk of escalation,” Brookings Institution,
November 17, 2023. November 17, 2023.
48 Robbie Gramer, “Inside Biden’s Push to Head Off an Israel-Hezbollah War,” Foreign Policy, January 11, 2024. 49 Feltman and Huggard, op. cit. 50 Yehoshua Kalisky, “Precision Missiles, UAVs, and Tens of Thousands of Fighters: Hezbollah’s Order of Battle,” Institute for National Security Studies, October 19, 2023; “Visiting north, IDF chief says war in Lebanon becoming much more likely,” Times of Israel, January 17, 2024.
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After a January 3, 2024, Israeli strike in Beirut that killed a senior Hamas leader, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed a “response and punishment.”51
Israeli officials have threatened wider military action in Lebanon unless they determine that Hezbollah has withdrawn sufficiently far from border areas to permit the safe return of around 80,000 evacuated Israelis to their homes in the north. However, Hezbollah has insisted that Israel halts fighting in Gaza before this can happen.5238 “For a Change, Hezbollah’s Boast of 100,000 Fighters Is Not Aimed at Israel,” Times of Israel, October 19, 2021. 39 Robbie Gramer, “Inside Biden’s Push to Head Off an Israel-Hezbollah War,” Foreign Policy, January 11, 2024. 40 Michael Knights et al., “The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah,’” CTC Sentinel, October 2022; Feltman and Huggard, op. cit.
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dead and raised fears of a broader escalation in which Hezbollah’s arsenal of some 150,000 missiles and rockets could pose a grave threat to Israeli strategic sites and population centers.41
Israeli officials have threatened wider military action in Lebanon if Hezbollah’s fighters (particularly the Radwan Force) are not kept back from the border in a way that mitigates the threat of an October 7-style attack and permits the roughly 70,000 evacuated Israelis to return to their homes.42 While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
has expressed hope for a diplomatic resolution, as sought by U.S. officials, he has said Israel is has expressed hope for a diplomatic resolution, as sought by U.S. officials, he has said Israel is
willing to “work in other willing to “work in other
ways.”43 U.S. officials also have said they hope a resolution could permit displaced people from norther Israel and southern Lebanon (reportedly around 86,000) to return to their homes.44 Hezbollah has insisted that Israel first halt fighting in Gaza, though one U.S. official has warned that an Israel-Hamas truce would not automatically carry over to the Israel-Lebanon border.45
Different sources provide varying assessments of the prospects for further escalation. The Economist asserted in January 2024ways.”53 Israeli’s military chief of staff stated in mid-January 2024 that the likelihood of broader escalation in the coming months “is much higher than it was in the past.”54 One source has asserted that the major parties have compelling reasons to avoid conflict: that the major parties have compelling reasons to avoid conflict:
Israel’s probable reluctance to add a second major frontIsrael’s probable reluctance to add a second major front
while it is militarily engaged in Gaza, Hezbollah’s apparent concern that , Hezbollah’s apparent concern that
widespread destruction in Lebanon from another war with Israel could seriously damage its domestic destruction in Lebanon from another war with Israel could seriously damage its domestic
popularity, and Iran’s likely desire to keep Hezbollah intact as a deterrent to direct Israeli action popularity, and Iran’s likely desire to keep Hezbollah intact as a deterrent to direct Israeli action
against Iran.55 Regardless of the parties’ intentions, accidents or miscalculations on either side could lead to broader conflict, raising questions about if and how such conflict might involve the United States.
U.S.-Iran Relations: Background, Recent
Approaches, and Developments in 2023
U.S.-Iran relations have been mostly adversarial since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, an authoritarian monarch who was a close U.S. ally, and led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The United States and Iran have not had diplomatic relations since 1980, following the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.56
U.S.-Iran tensions continued in the following decade, punctuated by armed confrontations in the Gulf and Iran-backed terrorist attacks (including the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut). U.S. sanctions, first imposed in 1979, continued apace with the U.S. government designating Iran as a state sponsor of acts of international terrorism in 1984, an embargo on U.S. trade with and investment in Iran in 1995, and the first imposition of secondary sanctions (U.S. penalties against firms that invest in Iran’s energy sector) in 1996.
After bilateral relations briefly improved during the late 1990s, tensions rose again in the early 2000s amid reports of Iran’s armed support for Palestinian groups and the revelation of previously undisclosed nuclear facilities in Iran.57 The United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program in response to concerns that the program could enable Iranian nuclear weapons development. The Obama Administration sought to address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program through continued economic pressure via sanctions as well as through
51 Sarah Dadouch and Kareem Fahim, “Hezbollah leader vows ‘punishment’ after killing of Hamas official in Lebanon,” Washington Post, January 3, 2024. 52 Raya Jalabi et al., “US pushes for Israel-Hizbollah deal as diplomacy window narrows,” Financial Times, January 17, 2024.
53 Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “PM Netanyahu's Remarks at the Start of the Government Meeting,” January 7, 2024.
54 “Visiting north, IDF chief says war in Lebanon becoming much more likely,” Times of Israel. 55 “Another war could break out on the Israel-Lebanon border,” Economist, January 4, 2024. 56 For an account of the crisis, see Mark Bowden, Guests of the Ayatollah (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2006). 57 John Ghazvinian, America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present (Knopf, 2021).
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9against Iran.46 One analyst wrote in March that constraints that have prevented major Israel-Hezbollah war to date were “breaking down,” and that the war in Gaza and supplemental U.S. military assistance for Israel could affect Israel’s calculations on whether and when it may do more to address what it may consider to be an existential issue.47 In March 12 testimony before the House Select Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said, “We continue to assess that Hezbollah and Iran do not want to cause an escalation of the conflict that pulls us or even them into a full out war.”48 It is unclear how, if at all, these assessments may change in light of the April 2024 Iranian attack on Israel. Regardless of the parties’ intentions, accidents or miscalculations on either side could lead to broader conflict. Apparent gradual escalation since March, including occasional Israeli attacks on militants and installations deeper into Lebanon and Hezbollah strikes on civilian areas in Israel, have contributed to ongoing speculation about the likelihood of broader conflict.49
Iran-Israel Conflict and Iran’s April 2024 Attack on Israel50 Iran’s government has long supplied and otherwise backed armed groups that have targeted Israel but had never claimed (or apparently undertaken) a direct attack by its own military forces from
41 Yehoshua Kalisky, “Precision Missiles, UAVs, and Tens of Thousands of Fighters: Hezbollah’s Order of Battle,” Institute for National Security Studies, October 19, 2023; “Strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria is ‘turning point’, Hezbollah head says,” Reuters, April 5, 2024. 42 Patricia Karam, “Hezbollah-Israel war is becoming inevitable, and the United States may not prevent it,” Arab Center Washington DC, April 10, 2024.
43 Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “PM Netanyahu’s Remarks at the Start of the Government Meeting,” Jan. 7, 2024. 44 “Israel and Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable,” Associated Press, February 1, 2024; Department of State, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken at a Press Availability,” January 9, 2024.
45 Raya Jalabi et al., “US Pushes for Israel-Hizbollah Deal as Diplomacy Window Narrows,” Financial Times, January 17, 2024; “Hezbollah tells Iran it would fight alone in any war with Israel,” Reuters, March 15, 2024.
46 “Another War Could Break Out on the Israel-Lebanon Border,” Economist, January 4, 2024. 47 Steven A. Cook, “War Between Israel and Hezbollah Is Becoming Inevitable,” Foreign Policy, February 29, 2024. 48 See https://plus.cq.com/doc/congressionaltranscripts-7960744?0. 49 Seth Jones et al., “The coming conflict with Hezbollah,” CSIS, March 21, 2024. 50 For more, see CRS Insight IN12347, Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict.
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Iranian territory against Israel. That changed in April 2024, with Iranian aerial attacks against Israel in retaliation for a strike in Syria that Tehran attributed to Israel that killed senior Iranian officials. The United States and others supported Israeli forces in largely thwarting those attacks, and U.S. officials have praised Israel’s capabilities while urging de-escalation.
Syria has been a prominent theater for Iran-Israel confrontation since at least 2017. According to Israeli officials, Israel has struck Iran-linked targets in Syria hundreds of times; Israel’s then-Intelligence Minister said in 2018 that “in the last two years Israel has taken military action more than 200 times within Syria,” and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff said in December 2020 that “we have struck over 500 targets [in Syria] this year.”51 Israeli strikes have reportedly continued in the context of Israel’s war with Hamas and elevated regional tensions.52
On April 1, 2024, the IRGC announced that two IRGC commanders and other personnel had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who led IRGC operations in Syria and Lebanon.53 Iran has stated that the attack was on, and destroyed, its “diplomatic premises;”54 many media accounts report the building as having been a consulate or “part of the Iranian Embassy complex.”55 An IDF spokesman declined to comment on the strike, but said, “According to our intelligence, this is no consulate and this is no embassy…This is a military building of Qods forces disguised as a civilian building in Damascus.”56
Iranian leaders immediately vowed to retaliate and as those threats escalated, the United States moved additional assets to the region to “bolster regional deterrence efforts and increase force protection for U.S. forces” in expectation of an Iranian attack.57 That attack came on April 13, when Iran, alongside reported partners in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, launched an aerial strike against Israel, the first-ever direct attack by Iranian government forces on Israel. The Iranian attack comprised approximately 300-350 projectiles, including 30 cruise missiles, 110-130 ballistic missiles, and 150-185 one-way attack drones (though some evidently failed to launch).58 Reportedly, around 99% of projectiles were shot down, both by Israeli air defense systems as well as by U.S., UK, French, and Jordanian forces.59 The few projectiles that apparently did land inside Israel caused “very little damage,” per the Israeli Defense Minister.60
U.S. and Israeli officials contend that Iran, given the scale of the attack, was seeking to cause “significant destruction and casualties,” as National Security Communications Advisor John
51 “Israel says it launched 200 strikes in Syria since 2017,” Al Jazeera, September 5, 2018; Suleiman Al-Khalidi, “Insight: Israel intensifying air war in Syria against Iranian encroachment,” Reuters, April 22, 2021. 52 Gianluca Pacchiani, “No longer afraid of sparking war, Israel takes gloves off against IRGC in Syria,” Times of Israel, February 27, 2024.
53 Maziar Motamedi, “Who was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, an Iranian general killed by Israel in Syria?” Al Jazeera, April 2, 2024.
54 Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations, “Ambassador’s letter to UNSC following Israeli regime’s terrorist attacks,” April 1, 2024.
55 Amanda Taub, “Israel bombed an Iranian Embassy complex. Is that allowed?” New York Times, April 2, 2024. 56 CNN Transcripts, CNN Newsroom, 11AM EST, April 2, 2024. At an April 2024 press briefing, a State Department spokesperson said, “So we have not determined that that actually was an attack on a consulate. The status of that facility is something that we continue to assess.” State Department, Department Press Briefing, April 15, 2024. 57 Natasha Bertrand et al., “US expects Iran to carry out direct attack on Israel, sources say, as Biden warns ‘don’t’,” CNN, April 12, 2024.
58 Gordon Lubold, “Many Iranian missiles failed to launch or crashed before striking target, U.S. officials say,” Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2024.
59 Per CENTCOM, U.S. forces destroyed “more than 80” drones and “at least six ballistic missiles.” 60 “Israel says Iran’s missile and drone attack largely thwarted, with ‘very little damage’ caused,” CBS, April 14, 2024.
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Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
Kirby said on April 15, explicitly arguing against analysis that “the Iranians meant to fail.”61 Those who align with that latter viewpoint contend that Iran could have used more drones and missiles and/or more advanced variants, and that Iran “did telegraph these attacks in advance which made them easier to deter.”62 Echoing reports that about half of the ballistic missiles launched by Iran failed to launch or crashed en route, Kirby also said that Iran’s “vaunted missile program…proved to be far less effective,” characterizing the attack as an “embarrassing failure” for Iran.63
Still, Iran’s demonstrated ability and willingness to launch missiles and drones directly at Israel marks a watershed in the two nations’ conflict. Iranian military officials have said that the attack creates a “new equation,” with the IRGC commander stating that “From now on, if Israel attacks Iranian interests, figures and citizens anywhere, we will retaliate from Iran.”64 The attack also appeared to demonstrate a degree of security cooperation and coordination between the United States and allies (including some Arab states).65
In the aftermath of the attack, as Israeli leaders assess various responses, U.S. officials reportedly sought to dissuade Israel from a large-scale retaliation by urging it to “slow things down” and “take the win,” as President Biden reportedly told Prime Minister Netanyahu.66 On April 19, Israel reportedly launched an air attack near an Iranian military base in the central province of Isfahan, and supposedly provided a few hours’ advance notice to U.S. officials.67 Although the attack appeared to be relatively narrow in scope, it may have signaled an Israeli ability to evade and target Iranian air defenses—apparently damaging the radar on a Russian-origin S-300 system—in a province where some of Iran’s nuclear facilities are located.68 Iranian leaders downplayed the strike’s impact while reiterating pledges to retaliate against any “proven” and “decisive” Israeli action against Iran.69 The muted response from Iran, the relatively limited scope of the strike, and the lack of official U.S. or Israeli comment on the incident led many observers to conclude that the situation may have de-escalated.70 Nevertheless, heightened risks of direct Israel-Iran conflict may persist. Some speculate that Israeli retaliation could spur further responses from Iran, including with regard to Iran’s nuclear program.71
61 Tovah Lazaroff, “Iran’s attack is an ‘embarrassing failure,’ a success for Israel, says US,” Jerusalem Post, April 16, 2024.
62 Michael Hirsh, “Iran’s attack seems like it was designed to fail. So what comes next?” Politico, April 14, 2024; Raffi Berg et al., “Why has Iran attacked Israel?” BBC, April 14, 2024; “Did Iran deploy ‘hypersonic’ missiles in attack on Israel?” Amwaj.media, April 16, 2024. 63 Lazaroff, op. cit.; Lubold, op. cit. 64 Susannah George, “Iran crosses old red lines and sets ‘new equation’ with attacks on Israel,” Washington Post, April 14, 2024.
65 David Cloud et al., “How the U.S. forged a fragile Middle Eastern alliance to repel Iran’s Israel attack,” Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2024;
66 Karen DeYoung and Matt Viser, “Biden counsels Netanyahu to ‘slow things down’ after Iranian attack,” Washington Post, April 14, 2024; Barak Ravid, “Scoop: Biden told Bibi U.S. won’t support an Israeli counterattack on Iran,” Axios, April 14, 2024; Barak Ravid, “Israel vows to retaliate against Iran for missile attacks,” Axios, April 15, 2024.
67 Alex Marquardt and Katie Bo Lillis, “Washington wrestles with ‘new equation’ of direct attacks between Iran and Israel,” CNN, April 19, 2024. 68 “Israeli weapon damaged Iranian air defenses without being detected, officials say,” New York Times, April 21, 2024. 69 Tom Llamas et al., “Iranian foreign minister says it will not escalate conflict and mocks Israeli weapons as ‘toys that our children play with,” NBC News, April 19, 2024. 70 “Muted reactions to Israeli strikes on Iran hint at de-escalation,” New York Times, April 18, 2024; “Israel, Iran ready to de-escalate – for now: analysts,” France24, April 19, 2-024.
71 David Sanger, “With nuclear deal dead, containing Iran grows more fraught,” New York Times, April 15, 2024.
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Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
U.S.-Iran Relations: Background and Recent Approaches U.S.-Iran relations have been mostly adversarial since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, an authoritarian monarch who was a close U.S. ally, and led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The United States and Iran have not had diplomatic relations since 1980, following the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis.72
U.S.-Iran tensions continued in the following decade, punctuated by armed confrontations in the Gulf and Iran-backed terrorist attacks (including the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut). U.S. sanctions, first imposed in 1979, continued apace with the U.S. government designating Iran as a state sponsor of acts of international terrorism in 1984, an embargo on U.S. trade with and investment in Iran in 1995, and the first imposition of secondary sanctions (U.S. penalties against firms that invest in Iran’s energy sector) in 1996.
After bilateral relations briefly improved during the late 1990s, tensions rose again in the early 2000s amid reports of Iran’s armed support for Palestinian groups and the revelation of previously undisclosed nuclear facilities in Iran.73 The United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program in response to concerns that the program could enable Iranian nuclear weapons development. The Obama Administration sought to address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program through continued economic pressure via sanctions as well as through
Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
diplomatic engagement.diplomatic engagement.
5874 That engagement culminated in the 2015 multilateral nuclear That engagement culminated in the 2015 multilateral nuclear
agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) that placed limits on Iran’s nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) that placed limits on Iran’s nuclear
activities in exchange for relief from most economic sanctions. activities in exchange for relief from most economic sanctions.
President Trump announced on May 8, 2018, that the United States would cease participating in
President Trump announced on May 8, 2018, that the United States would cease participating in
the JCPOA, reinstating all sanctions that the United States had waived or terminated in meeting the JCPOA, reinstating all sanctions that the United States had waived or terminated in meeting
its JCPOA obligations. In articulating a new Iran strategy in May 2018, then-Secretary of State its JCPOA obligations. In articulating a new Iran strategy in May 2018, then-Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo said that due to “unprecedented financial pressure” through reimposed U.S. Mike Pompeo said that due to “unprecedented financial pressure” through reimposed U.S.
sanctions, U.S. military deterrence, and U.S. advocacy, “we hope, and indeed we expect, that the sanctions, U.S. military deterrence, and U.S. advocacy, “we hope, and indeed we expect, that the
Iranian regime will come to its senses.”Iranian regime will come to its senses.”
5975 He also laid out 12 demands for any future agreement He also laid out 12 demands for any future agreement
with Iran, including the withdrawal of Iranian support for armed groups throughout the region. with Iran, including the withdrawal of Iranian support for armed groups throughout the region.
Iran’s leaders rejected U.S. demands and insisted the United States return to compliance with the Iran’s leaders rejected U.S. demands and insisted the United States return to compliance with the
JCPOA before engaging on a new or revised accord. JCPOA before engaging on a new or revised accord.
The Trump Administration policy of applying “maximum pressure” on Iran after late 2018 took
The Trump Administration policy of applying “maximum pressure” on Iran after late 2018 took
two main forms: additional sanctions and limited military action. From mid-2019 on, Iran two main forms: additional sanctions and limited military action. From mid-2019 on, Iran
escalated its regional military activities, at times coming into direct military conflict with the escalated its regional military activities, at times coming into direct military conflict with the
United States. Several Iranian attacks against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and a September United States. Several Iranian attacks against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and a September
2019 drone attack against Saudi Arabian oil production facilities further increased tensions. Those 2019 drone attack against Saudi Arabian oil production facilities further increased tensions. Those
tensions peaked with the Trump Administration’s January 3, 2020, killing of IRGC-Qods Force tensions peaked with the Trump Administration’s January 3, 2020, killing of IRGC-Qods Force
commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, and Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile strikes against commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, and Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile strikes against
U.S. forces in Iraq and subsequent attacks by Iran-backed forces in Iraq against U.S. targets.U.S. forces in Iraq and subsequent attacks by Iran-backed forces in Iraq against U.S. targets.
60 76
72 For an account of the crisis, see Mark Bowden, Guests of the Ayatollah (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2006). 73 John Ghazvinian, America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present (Knopf, 2021). 74 White House, “Statement by the President on Iran,” July 14, 2015. 75 “After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy,” Heritage Foundation, May 21, 2018. 76 For more, see CRS Report R46148, U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani: Frequently Asked Questions.
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Iran also began exceeding JCPOA-mandated limits on its nuclear activities in 2019, according to Iran also began exceeding JCPOA-mandated limits on its nuclear activities in 2019, according to
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
61
Biden Administration Policy
77
Developments under the Biden Administration As a presidential candidate in 2020, Joe Biden described the Trump Administration’s Iran policy As a presidential candidate in 2020, Joe Biden described the Trump Administration’s Iran policy
as a “dangerous failure” that had isolated the United States from its international partners, as a “dangerous failure” that had isolated the United States from its international partners,
allowed Iran to increase its stockpiles of enriched uranium, and raised tensions throughout the allowed Iran to increase its stockpiles of enriched uranium, and raised tensions throughout the
region.region.
6278 The Biden Administration initiated indirect talks with Iran and after months of halting The Biden Administration initiated indirect talks with Iran and after months of halting
negotiations, reports in August 2022 indicated that all sides were close to achieving agreement negotiations, reports in August 2022 indicated that all sides were close to achieving agreement
before stalling over Iran’s reported revival of some demands that the other parties had considered before stalling over Iran’s reported revival of some demands that the other parties had considered
closed issues.closed issues.
6379 The Iranian government’s violent crackdown against nationwide unrest the The Iranian government’s violent crackdown against nationwide unrest the
following month (see Protests below) further diminished the prospects of a new agreement.following month (see Protests below) further diminished the prospects of a new agreement.
6480
In its October 2022 National Security Strategy, the Administration laid out its policy toward Iran,
In its October 2022 National Security Strategy, the Administration laid out its policy toward Iran,
stating the United States would “pursue diplomacy to ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear stating the United States would “pursue diplomacy to ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear
weapon, while remaining postured and prepared to use other means should diplomacy fail,” and weapon, while remaining postured and prepared to use other means should diplomacy fail,” and
that “we will respond when our people and interests are attacked.”that “we will respond when our people and interests are attacked.”
6581 The Strategy also states, “we The Strategy also states, “we
58 White House, “Statement by the President on Iran,” July 14, 2015. 59 “After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy,” Heritage Foundation, May 21, 2018. 60 For more, see CRS Report R46148, U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani: Frequently Asked Questions. 61 See, for example, IAEA Board of Governors, Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of
United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), November 11, 2019.
62 Joe Biden, “There’s a smarter way to be tough on Iran,” CNN, September 13, 2020. 63 Ishaan Tharoor, “Is the Iran deal worth salvaging?” Washington Post, August 26, 2022; “Iran nuclear talks in ‘stalemate,’ says EU foreign policy chief,” Arab News, September 15, 2022. 64 Nahal Toosi, “‘Everyone thinks we have magic powers’: Biden seeks a balance on Iran,” Politico, October 25, 2022. 65 White House, National Security Strategy, October 12, 2022.
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will always stand with the Iranian people striving for the basic rights and dignity long denied will always stand with the Iranian people striving for the basic rights and dignity long denied
them by the regime in Tehran.” them by the regime in Tehran.”
Developments in 2023
In 2023, friction between the United States and Iran persisted, with Iranian or Iran-backed attacks In 2023, friction between the United States and Iran persisted, with Iranian or Iran-backed attacks
against commercial shipping in the Gulf, and the continued application of U.S. sanctions, against commercial shipping in the Gulf, and the continued application of U.S. sanctions,
including the interdiction of a tanker transporting Iranian oil. At the same time, the Biden including the interdiction of a tanker transporting Iranian oil. At the same time, the Biden
Administration reportedly engaged directly with Iranian diplomats in an attempt to decrease Administration reportedly engaged directly with Iranian diplomats in an attempt to decrease
tensions.tensions.
82 In September 2023, the United States and Iran conducted mutual prisoner releases and In September 2023, the United States and Iran conducted mutual prisoner releases and
the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds from South Korea to the United States facilitated the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian funds from South Korea to
Qatar.Qatar.
6683
Attacks on Gulf Shipping. The United States seeks to safeguard freedom of navigation in the The United States seeks to safeguard freedom of navigation in the
Persian Gulf, which has long been a flashpoint for U.S.-Iran tensions.Persian Gulf, which has long been a flashpoint for U.S.-Iran tensions.
6784 U.S. Naval Forces Central U.S. Naval Forces Central
Command’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, said in a July 2023 statement that “Iran has harassed, Command’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, said in a July 2023 statement that “Iran has harassed,
attacked or seized nearly 20 internationally flagged merchant vessels” since 2021.attacked or seized nearly 20 internationally flagged merchant vessels” since 2021.
6885 This includes This includes
the Iranian seizure of two tankers in April-May 2023 and the attempted seizure of two more in the Iranian seizure of two tankers in April-May 2023 and the attempted seizure of two more in
July 2023.July 2023.
6986 Iran’s April-May seizures came weeks after the United States confiscated the Suez
77 See, for example, IAEA Board of Governors, Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), November 11, 2019.
78 Joe Biden, “There’s a smarter way to be tough on Iran,” CNN, September 13, 2020. 79 Ishaan Tharoor, “Is the Iran deal worth salvaging?” Washington Post, August 26, 2022; “Iran nuclear talks in ‘stalemate,’ says EU foreign policy chief,” Arab News, September 15, 2022. 80 Nahal Toosi, “‘Everyone thinks we have magic powers’: Biden seeks a balance on Iran,” Politico, October 25, 2022. 81 White House, National Security Strategy, October 12, 2022. 82 Laurence Norman and David Cloud, “U.S. launches quiet diplomatic push with Iran to cool tensions,” Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2023.
83 “U.S. reaches deal with Iran to free Americans for jailed Iranians and funds,” op. cit. 84 Iran’s April-May seizures came weeks after the United States confiscated the Suez
Rajan, a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker suspected of carrying Iranian crude oil to China in violation of U.S. sanctions.70 The Justice Department hailed the confiscation and sale of the oil as “the first-ever criminal resolution involving a company that violated sanctions” related to trade in Iranian oil.71 In January 2024, the Iranian navy announced that it had seized the Suez Rajan (renamed the St Nikolas) in the Gulf of Oman, drawing U.S. condemnation.72
Sanctions.73 The Biden Administration has not issued any new sanctions authorities but has continued to designate for sanctions Iranian and third-country-based entities pursuant to existing U.S. laws and executive orders. Entities designated in 2023 include individuals and companies involved in Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and ballistic missile programs; individuals involved in the production, sale, and shipment of Iranian oil to Asia; individuals involved in the crackdown on protesters and in other human rights abuses; senior IRGC officials involved in the wrongful detention of U.S. nationals in Iran; and individuals and companies facilitating the Iranian regime’s internet censorship.74
66 “U.S. reaches deal with Iran to free Americans for jailed Iranians and funds,” op. cit. 67 See White House, “Fact Sheet: The United States strengthens cooperation with Middle East partners to address 21st See White House, “Fact Sheet: The United States strengthens cooperation with Middle East partners to address 21st
century challenges,” July 16, 2022. century challenges,” July 16, 2022.
6885 U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, “U.S. prevents Iran from seizing two merchant tankers in Gulf of Oman,” July U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, “U.S. prevents Iran from seizing two merchant tankers in Gulf of Oman,” July
5, 2023. 5, 2023.
6986 Iranian forces seized the Marshall Islands-flagged Iranian forces seized the Marshall Islands-flagged
Advantage Sweet and the Panama-flagged and the Panama-flagged
Niovi in April-May in April-May
2023, and attempted to seize the Marshall Islands-flagged TRF Moss and the Bahamas-flagged Richmond Voyager on July 5, 2023. “U.S. prevents Iran from seizing two merchant tankers in Gulf of Oman,” op. cit. Both tankers, and their crews, appear to remain in Iran.
70 Nahmeh Bozorgmehr et al., “US seizure of oil vessel triggered Iran tanker capture,” Financial Times, April 28, 2023. 71 U.S. Department of Justice, “Justice Department announces first criminal resolution involving the illicit sale and transport of Iranian oil in violation of U.S. sanctions,” September 8, 2023. 72 “Iran seizes oil tanker involved in U.S.-Iran dispute in Gulf of Oman,” Reuters, January 15, 2024. 73 For more, see CRS In Focus IF12452, U.S. Sanctions on Iran, by Clayton Thomas. 74 See U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control press releases “Treasury sanctions international procurement network supporting Iran’s missile and military programs,” June 6, 2023; “Treasury sanctions companies involved in production, sale, and shipment of Iranian petrochemicals and petroleum,” February 9, 2023; (continued...)
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(continued...)
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Rajan, a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker suspected of carrying Iranian crude oil to China in violation of U.S. sanctions.87 The Justice Department hailed the confiscation and sale of the oil as “the first-ever criminal resolution involving a company that violated sanctions” related to trade in Iranian oil.88 In January 2024, the Iranian navy announced that it had seized the Suez Rajan (renamed the St Nikolas) in the Gulf of Oman, drawing U.S. condemnation.89
Prisoner Exchange and Transfer of Iranian Assets. In September 2023, Iran released five In September 2023, Iran released five
detained U.S. nationals who had been held in Iran on what the State Department called “baseless detained U.S. nationals who had been held in Iran on what the State Department called “baseless
charges.”charges.”
7590 In exchange, the Biden Administration granted clemency to five imprisoned Iranian In exchange, the Biden Administration granted clemency to five imprisoned Iranian
nationals who had been charged with or convicted of violating U.S. sanctions and failing to nationals who had been charged with or convicted of violating U.S. sanctions and failing to
register as a foreign agent.register as a foreign agent.
7691 In a statement welcoming the return of U.S. detainees, President In a statement welcoming the return of U.S. detainees, President
Biden thanked the leaders of Qatar and Oman for their role in facilitating the agreement and Biden thanked the leaders of Qatar and Oman for their role in facilitating the agreement and
announced new sanctions on Iranian entities responsible for the wrongful detentions.announced new sanctions on Iranian entities responsible for the wrongful detentions.
7792 President President
Biden also Biden also
statedreaffirmed
The U.S. State Department has a longstanding travel warning that states: “Do not travel to
The U.S. State Department has a longstanding travel warning that states: “Do not travel to
Iran due to the risk of kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest and detention of U.S. citizens.” Iran due to the risk of kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest and detention of U.S. citizens.”
All Americans should heed those words and have no expectation that their release can be All Americans should heed those words and have no expectation that their release can be
secured if they do not. secured if they do not.
In connection with the exchange, the United States also facilitated the transfer of $6 billion of
In connection with the exchange, the United States also facilitated the transfer of $6 billion of
Iranian funds from South Korea (where they had been held as payment for pre-2019 exports of Iranian funds from South Korea (where they had been held as payment for pre-2019 exports of
Iranian oil to South Korea) to Qatar.Iranian oil to South Korea) to Qatar.
7893 In a September 17, 2023, press briefing, one unnamed U.S. In a September 17, 2023, press briefing, one unnamed U.S.
official stated that the funds in Qatar would be “available only for transactions for humanitarian official stated that the funds in Qatar would be “available only for transactions for humanitarian
goods [namely, food, medicine, medical devices, and agricultural products] with vetted third-goods [namely, food, medicine, medical devices, and agricultural products] with vetted third-
party, non-Iranian vendors,” as part of what the Administration has termed “the humanitarian party, non-Iranian vendors,” as part of what the Administration has termed “the humanitarian
channel in Qatar” or HC.channel in Qatar” or HC.
7994 In explaining why the Administration had facilitated the transfer of In explaining why the Administration had facilitated the transfer of
funds, an unnamed senior U.S. official said that while similar humanitarian transactions were funds, an unnamed senior U.S. official said that while similar humanitarian transactions were
permitted with respect to the South Korea-based funds, “the situation in Korea was unique permitted with respect to the South Korea-based funds, “the situation in Korea was unique
because of difficulties to convert the Korean currency,” which “made it difficult to actually do because of difficulties to convert the Korean currency,” which “made it difficult to actually do
humanitarian transactions.”humanitarian transactions.”
8095 According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Qatari banks According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Qatari banks
operating the humanitarian channel “have committed to stringent due diligence measures,” and operating the humanitarian channel “have committed to stringent due diligence measures,” and
the United States “will closely monitor the HC and will take appropriate action should Iran attempt to use these funds for purposes other than permitted humanitarian transactions.”81
Observers and some Members of Congress responded in varying ways to the exchange and transfer of funds. Some characterized the transfer of Iran’s South Korea-based funds to Qatar as a “ransom” that incentivizes hostage-taking.82 Some of these critics argued that even if the regime is not able to use the unfrozen funds for malign activities, the regime’s access to additional funds
“Treasury sanctions senior Iranian officials overseeing violent protest suppression and censorship,” April 24, 2023; “Treasury sanctions officials of Iranian intelligence agency responsible for detention of U.S. nationals in Iran,” April 27, 2023; “Treasury sanctions Iranian company aiding in internet censorship,” June 2, 2023. 75
2023, and attempted to seize the Marshall Islands-flagged TRF Moss and the Bahamas-flagged Richmond Voyager on July 5, 2023. “U.S. prevents Iran from seizing two merchant tankers in Gulf of Oman,” op. cit. Both tankers, and their crews, appear to remain in Iran.
87 Nahmeh Bozorgmehr et al., “US seizure of oil vessel triggered Iran tanker capture,” Financial Times, April 28, 2023. 88 U.S. Department of Justice, “Justice Department announces first criminal resolution involving the illicit sale and transport of Iranian oil in violation of U.S. sanctions,” September 8, 2023. 89 “Iran seizes oil tanker involved in U.S.-Iran dispute in Gulf of Oman,” Reuters, January 15, 2024. 90 U.S. Department of State, “Sixth anniversary of Iran’s wrongful detention of Baquer Namazi,” February 22, 2022. U.S. Department of State, “Sixth anniversary of Iran’s wrongful detention of Baquer Namazi,” February 22, 2022.
7691 Elizabeth Hagedorn, “Iran reveals names of 5 citizens sought in US prisoner deal,” Elizabeth Hagedorn, “Iran reveals names of 5 citizens sought in US prisoner deal,”
Al-Monitor, September 11, 2023; , September 11, 2023;
Ellen Knickmeyer et al., “Americans released by Iran arrive home, tearfully embrace their loved ones and declare: Ellen Knickmeyer et al., “Americans released by Iran arrive home, tearfully embrace their loved ones and declare:
‘Freedom!’” Associated Press, September 19, 2023. ‘Freedom!’” Associated Press, September 19, 2023.
7792 White House, “Statement from President Joe Biden on the return of American detainees from Iran,” September 18, White House, “Statement from President Joe Biden on the return of American detainees from Iran,” September 18,
2023. The sanctions designations were made pursuant to E.O. 14078, which implements the Robert Levinson Hostage 2023. The sanctions designations were made pursuant to E.O. 14078, which implements the Robert Levinson Hostage
Recovery and Hostage-taking Accountability Act (Title III, Subtitle A of P.L. 116-260). Recovery and Hostage-taking Accountability Act (Title III, Subtitle A of P.L. 116-260).
7893 The Administration issued a waiver permitting banks in several European countries to engage in the transfer of the The Administration issued a waiver permitting banks in several European countries to engage in the transfer of the
Iranian funds from South Korea to Qatar. Lee, “The US moves to advance a prisoner swap deal,” op. cit. Iranian funds from South Korea to Qatar. Lee, “The US moves to advance a prisoner swap deal,” op. cit.
7994 White House, “Background press call by senior Administration officials on the return of American detainees from White House, “Background press call by senior Administration officials on the return of American detainees from
Iran,” September 17, 2023. Iran,” September 17, 2023.
80 Ibid. 81 Office of Foreign Assets Control, “Frequently Asked Question 1134: What is the humanitarian channel in Qatar,” September 18, 2023.
82 See, for example, Senator Ted Cruz, “Sen. Cruz blasts Biden-Iran nuclear side deal on hostages,” September 11, 2023.
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95 Ibid.
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the United States “will closely monitor the HC and will take appropriate action should Iran attempt to use these funds for purposes other than permitted humanitarian transactions.”96
Observers and some Members of Congress responded in varying ways to the exchange and transfer of funds. Some characterized the transfer of Iran’s South Korea-based funds to Qatar as a “ransom” that incentivizes hostage-taking.97 Some of these critics argued that even if the regime is not able to use the unfrozen funds for malign activities, the regime’s access to additional funds for humanitarian purposes will free up other resources for those destabilizing activities.for humanitarian purposes will free up other resources for those destabilizing activities.
8398 Supporters of the arrangement lauded the Administration for securing the release of U.S. citizens Supporters of the arrangement lauded the Administration for securing the release of U.S. citizens
held abroad (a stated Administration priority) and argued that supporting the conditional release held abroad (a stated Administration priority) and argued that supporting the conditional release
of Iranian funds for humanitarian purposes may deprive the regime of an excuse for domestic of Iranian funds for humanitarian purposes may deprive the regime of an excuse for domestic
economic problems.economic problems.
8499
The October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel appears to have changed U.S. policy with respect to
The October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel appears to have changed U.S. policy with respect to
the funds. According to press reportsthe funds. According to press reports
and Members of Congress, Deputy Treasury Secretary , Deputy Treasury Secretary
Wally Adeyemo told legislators in October 2023 that in the wake of Hamas’s assault on Israel, Wally Adeyemo told legislators in October 2023 that in the wake of Hamas’s assault on Israel,
U.S. and Qatari officials had agreed to prevent the use of the funds to finance the purchase of U.S. and Qatari officials had agreed to prevent the use of the funds to finance the purchase of
humanitarian goods for export to Iran for an unspecified period of time.humanitarian goods for export to Iran for an unspecified period of time.
85100 In November 2023, the In November 2023, the
House passed legislation (H.R. 5961) that would, among other provisions, direct the President to House passed legislation (H.R. 5961) that would, among other provisions, direct the President to
impose sanctions on any foreign financial institution that engages in transactions with the $6 impose sanctions on any foreign financial institution that engages in transactions with the $6
billion in Iranian funds. In testimony the following month, a State Department official said of the billion in Iranian funds. In testimony the following month, a State Department official said of the
funds, “Not a penny of this money has been spent and these funds will not go anywhere anytime funds, “Not a penny of this money has been spent and these funds will not go anywhere anytime
soon.”soon.”
86101
Iran’s Relations with China and Russia
Russia and China Iran has acted to maintain and expand economic and military ties with Iran has acted to maintain and expand economic and military ties with
Beijing and MoscowMoscow and Beijing, ,
reflecting what analysts describe as a “look East” strategy favored by hardline leaders, including reflecting what analysts describe as a “look East” strategy favored by hardline leaders, including
President Raisi and Supreme Leader Khamenei.President Raisi and Supreme Leader Khamenei.
87102 In 2024, Iran In 2024, Iran
is slated to formally formally
joinjoined the the
BRICS group of emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)BRICS group of emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)
, along with Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.88 The economic and political.103 The economic impacts of Iran’s BRICS membership are likely to be minimal, at least in the short term, impacts of Iran’s BRICS membership are likely to be minimal, at least in the short term,
but Iranian leaders characterize joining the group as a “strategic victory” that will buttress the but Iranian leaders characterize joining the group as a “strategic victory” that will buttress the
Iranian government’s efforts to resist U.S.-led attempts to isolate and pressure it (including Iranian government’s efforts to resist U.S.-led attempts to isolate and pressure it (including
sanctions).89
For the past several decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has taken steps to deepen its financial presence in numerous sectors of the Iranian economy, as well as to expand military cooperation. China is Iran’s largest trade partner and the largest importer of Iran’s crude oil and condensates, despite U.S. sanctions; Chinese imports of Iranian oil grew to nearly a million barrels per day in 2023.90 Over the years, the PRC has become a source of capital for Iran,
83sanctions).104
96 Office of Foreign Assets Control, “Frequently Asked Question 1134: What is the humanitarian channel in Qatar,” September 18, 2023.
97 See, for example, Senator Ted Cruz, “Sen. Cruz blasts Biden-Iran nuclear side deal on hostages,” September 11, 2023.
98 See, for example, Chairman Michael McCaul, “McCaul statement on release of Americans held hostage in Iran,” See, for example, Chairman Michael McCaul, “McCaul statement on release of Americans held hostage in Iran,”
September 18, 2023. September 18, 2023.
8499 See, for example, Senator Ben Cardin, “Cardin statement on the release of Americans from Iran,” September 18, See, for example, Senator Ben Cardin, “Cardin statement on the release of Americans from Iran,” September 18,
2023; Ryan Costello, “The latest Iran deal is a win-win,” 2023; Ryan Costello, “The latest Iran deal is a win-win,”
Defense One, August 10, 2023. , August 10, 2023.
85100 Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage, “U.S., Qatar agree to stop Iran from tapping $6 billion fund after Hamas attack,” Jeff Stein and Jacob Bogage, “U.S., Qatar agree to stop Iran from tapping $6 billion fund after Hamas attack,”
Washington Post, October 12, 2023. , October 12, 2023.
86101 House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds hearing on Iran’s financial support of House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds hearing on Iran’s financial support of
terrorism, terrorism,
CQ Congressional Transcripts, December 13, 2023. , December 13, 2023.
87102 Javad Heiran-Nia, “How Iran’s interpretation of the world order affects its foreign policy,” Atlantic Council, May 11, Javad Heiran-Nia, “How Iran’s interpretation of the world order affects its foreign policy,” Atlantic Council, May 11,
2022; Pierre Pahlavi, “The origins and foundations of Iran’s “Look East” policy,” Australian Institute of International 2022; Pierre Pahlavi, “The origins and foundations of Iran’s “Look East” policy,” Australian Institute of International
Affairs, October 4, 2022. Affairs, October 4, 2022.
88103 Farnaz Fassihi et al., “What to know about the 6 nations joining BRICS,” Farnaz Fassihi et al., “What to know about the 6 nations joining BRICS,”
New York Times, August 23, 2023. , August 23, 2023.
89104 “Deep dive: Iran hails invite to join BRICS, but few expect major dividends,” “Deep dive: Iran hails invite to join BRICS, but few expect major dividends,”
Amwaj.media, August 25, 2023; , August 25, 2023;
Farnaz Fassihi, “With BRICS invite, Iran shrugs off outcast status in the West,” Farnaz Fassihi, “With BRICS invite, Iran shrugs off outcast status in the West,”
New York Times, August 25, 2023. , August 25, 2023.
90 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Executive Summary: Iran,” November 17, 2022; “China is buying the most Iranian crude oil in a decade, Kpler says,” August 15, 2023; Muyu Xu, “China’s ‘teapot’ refiners mop up swelling Iranian crude, defying U.S. curbs,” Reuters, September 14, 2023.
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Iran and Russia maintain a multifaceted relationship, bolstered by a shared rejection of what they consider a U.S., or Western, led international order.105 In the words of one analyst, “as long as the West builds on its pressure campaign against Russia and Iran, Moscow and Tehran are likely to pursue further integration as a collective response.”106 Relations between Iran and Russia have grown significantly in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.107 Since 2022, Russia has turned to Iran to provide key capabilities and resources to sustain its war. According to the Biden Administration, “Iran has been providing Russia with significant numbers of drones, guided aerial bombs, and artillery ammunition, which Russia has been using to some effect to attack Ukraine.”108 In return, Iran has reportedly sought advanced fighter jets and air defense systems from Russia.109
In 2024, Iran-Russia ties have reached new heights, underpinned by what U.S. officials call a “full-scale defense partnership.”110 In March 2024, the leaders of the G7 released a statement warning Iran not to supply Russia with ballistic missiles and stating that the G7 is “prepared to respond swiftly and in a coordinated manner including with new and significant measures against Iran,” such as a ban on Iranian airlines’ travel to Europe.111 Iran-Russia military cooperation has not been accompanied by a commensurate expansion of economic activity, given their similar economic profiles, though Russia and Iran have sought to cooperate on evading U.S. sanctions.112
For the past several decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has taken steps to deepen its financial presence in numerous sectors of the Iranian economy, as well as to expand military cooperation. China is Iran’s largest trade partner and the largest importer of Iran’s crude oil and condensates, despite U.S. sanctions; Chinese imports of Iranian oil grew to over a million barrels per day in 2023 (see CRS Insight IN12267, Iran’s Petroleum Exports to China and U.S. Sanctions). On March 27, 2021, Iran and the PRC signed a 25-year China-Iran Comprehensive Cooperation Plan “to tap the potential for cooperation in areas such as economy and culture and map out prospects for cooperation in the long run.”113 U.S. officials also report that PRC-based
105 Petr Topychkanov, “Iranian and Russian Perspective on the Global System,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 27, 2017; Michelle Grise and Alexandra T. Evans, “The Drivers of and Outlook for Russian-Iranian Cooperation,” RAND, October 2023; and, Hamidreza Azizi and Hanna Notte, “Russia’s Dangerous New Friends,” Foreign Affairs, February 14, 2024.
106 Alex Vatanka, “Can the West stop Russian-Iranian convergence?” Middle East Institute, April 3, 2023. 107 According to one study, Moscow-Tehran relations suffer from, “systemic mistrust between Russia and Iran that has arisen from—and contributes to—disagreements about the nature of the partnership and Iran’s status within it.” Michelle Grise and Alexandra T. Evans, “The Drivers of and Outlook for Russian-Iranian Cooperation,” RAND, October 2023, p. 12.
108 White House, “On-the-Record Press Gaggle by White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby,” February 22, 2024.
109 Joby Warrick, “Russian weapons help Iran harden defenses against Israeli airstrike,” Washington Post, April 15, 2024.
110 Lara Seligman and Alexander War, “New U.S. Intelligence Shows Russia’s Deepening Defense Ties with Iran,” Politico, June 6, 2023.
111 The G7 consists of the United States, Italy, Japan, Germany, Britain, France and Canada. Laurence Norman and Michael Gordon, “G-7 Threatens Coordinated Sanctions if Iran Provides Ballistic Missiles to Russia,” Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024. “G-7 threatens coordinated sanctions if Iran provides ballistic missiles to Russia,” Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024.
112 Matthew Karnitschnig, “Iran teaches Russia its tricks on beating oil sanctions,” Politico, November 9, 2022; Tom Keatinge, “Developing bad habits: What Russia might learn from Russia’s sanctions evasion,” RUSI, June 2023. 113 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, “Wang Yi Holds Talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif,” March 28, 2021.
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entities have supplied Iran-backed armed groups with UAV technology.114 The United States has imposed sanctions on a number of PRC-based entities for allegedly supplying Iran’s missile, nuclear, and conventional weapons programs. China’s role in brokering a 2023 agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reestablish diplomatic relations has been seen by some as a sea change in regional diplomacy, though others contend the United States remains the essential partner to Gulf Arab states.115
Iran: Background and U.S. Policy
in line with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes a series of energy and transportation corridors extending throughout Eurasia. On March 27, 2021, Iran and the PRC signed a 25-year China-Iran Comprehensive Cooperation Plan “to tap the potential for cooperation in areas such as economy and culture and map out prospects for cooperation in the long run.”91 Before doing so was banned by the U.N. Security Council, the PRC openly supplied Iran with advanced conventional arms, including cruise missile-armed fast patrol boats that the IRGC Navy operates in the Persian Gulf; anti-ship missiles; ballistic missile guidance systems; and other technology related to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).92 U.S. officials also report that PRC-based entities have supplied Iran-backed armed groups with UAV technology.93 The United States has imposed sanctions on a number of PRC-based entities for allegedly supplying Iran’s missile, nuclear, and conventional weapons programs.
March 2023 China-Iran-Saudi Arabia Agreement
In March 2023, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China announced that Iran and Saudi Arabia would reestablish diplomatic relations (suspended since 2016), reopen embassies in each other’s capitals, and reinitiate exchanges pursuant to bilateral accords signed during a previous period of Saudi-Iranian rapprochement (in 1998 and 2001).94 In the China-brokered agreement, Iran and Saudi Arabia affirmed their respect for “non-interference in internal affairs of states.” One media source indicates that specific elements include a Saudi pledge to “tone down critical coverage of Iran” by a Saudi-linked media outlet and an Iranian pledge to halt arms shipments to the Houthis in Yemen.95 The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers exchanged visits in June and August 2023, and both countries have reopened their embassies. The Biden Administration indicated that it conditionally welcomed the agreement, while highlighting uncertainty over “whether the Iranians are going to honor their side of the deal” given the legacy of Iran’s support to the Houthis in Yemen.96 CENTCOM Commander General Kuril a cautioned, “They have had diplomatic relations in the past while they were stil shooting at each other in the past.”97 Some Administration officials have characterized the agreement as “a good thing” that advances the U.S. goal of “de-escalation in the Middle East,” while downplaying the significance of the deal and of China’s role in brokering it.98 Observers have expressed a range of views. Some view the PRC initiative as a sea change in regional diplomacy and as an indication of China’s increased influence, while others see it as a modest win for China.99 The implications of the deal for U.S. policy also elicited a range of views. Some experts perceive the deal as a major blow to U.S. credibility, while others
91 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, “Wang Yi Holds Talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif,” March 28, 2021.
92 Defense Intelligence Agency, Iran Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance, 2019.
93 Testimony of Department of State Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, in U.S. Congress, Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism, China’s Role in the Middle East, hearing, 117th Cong., 2nd sess., August 4, 2022. 94 See Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (@KSAmofaEN), “Joint Trilateral Statement by the Kingdom of #Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of #Iran, and the People’s Republic of #China,” X post, March 10, 2023, https://twitter.com/KSAmofaEN/status/1634180277764276227. For more on past agreements, see Faris Almaari, “Clarifying the status of previous Iran-Saudi agreements,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, March 16, 2023. 95 Summer Said et al., “China plans new Middle East summit as diplomatic role takes shape,” Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2023; Dion Nissenbaum et al., “Iran agrees to stop arming Houthis in Yemen as part of pact with Saudi Arabia,” Wall Street Journal, March 16, 2023. 96 Patsy Widakuswara, “White House welcomes Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran deal,” VOA, March 10, 2023. 97 “Senate Armed Services Committee Holds Hearing on Fiscal Year 2024 Defense Authorization Request for Central Command and Africa Command,” CQ Congressional Transcripts, March 16, 2023. 98 Nahal Toosi and Phelim Kine, “U.S. officials project calm as China stuns world with Iran-Saudi deal,” Politico, March 13, 2023.
99 “Experts react: Iran and Saudi Arabia just agreed to restore relations, with help from China. Here’s what that means for the Middle East and the world,” Atlantic Council, March 10, 2023.
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argue that, despite China’s foray into Middle Eastern diplomacy, the United States remains the essential partner to Gulf Arab states.100 President Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman reportedly spoke for the first time days after the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel, and Raisi conducted his first visit to Saudi Arabia in November 2023. In December 2023, Saudi and Iranian diplomats traveled to Beijing to reaffirm their commitment to the March 2023 agreement as part of the first meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Tripartite Committee.101 At that meeting, the three countries reportedly called for the “immediate cessation of military operations in Gaza.”102
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Russia and Iran—both under extensive U.S. sanctions—have deepened their relationship. Since August 2022, Iran has transferred armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, or drones) to Russia, which has used them against a range of targets in Ukraine. These transfers (and potential transfers of ballistic missiles) have implications for the trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine as well as for U.S. efforts to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia's invasion. In late 2022, Administration officials warned that the relationship between Iran and Russia was advancing beyond the sale of drones; a National Security Council spokesperson stated, “Russia is offering Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship to a full-fledged defense partnership.”103 According to media reports, Iran and Russia have constructed and are operating a factory in Russia to produce thousands of Iranian-designed drones for Russia’s war in Ukraine.104
Iran’s Political System
Iran’s Islamic Republic was established in 1979, ending the autocratic monarchy of the Shah, and Iran’s Islamic Republic was established in 1979, ending the autocratic monarchy of the Shah, and
is a hybrid political system that defies simple characterization. Iran has a parliament, regular is a hybrid political system that defies simple characterization. Iran has a parliament, regular
elections, and some other features of representative democracy. In practice, though, the elections, and some other features of representative democracy. In practice, though, the
government is authoritarian, ranking 154th out of 167 countries in the Economist Intelligence government is authoritarian, ranking 154th out of 167 countries in the Economist Intelligence
Unit’s Unit’s
20222023 Democracy Index. Democracy Index.
105116 Shia Islam is the state religion and the basis for all legislation Shia Islam is the state religion and the basis for all legislation
and jurisprudence, and political contestation is tightly controlled, with ultimate and jurisprudence, and political contestation is tightly controlled, with ultimate
decisionmakingdecision-making power in the hands of the Supreme Leader. That title has been held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei power in the hands of the Supreme Leader. That title has been held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
since 1989, when he succeeded the Islamic Republic’s founding leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah since 1989, when he succeeded the Islamic Republic’s founding leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini. In September 2022, Khamenei appeared to suffer a brief bout of significant illness; Khomeini. In September 2022, Khamenei appeared to suffer a brief bout of significant illness;
prospects for leadership succession are unclear. prospects for leadership succession are unclear.
Iran’s top directly elected position is the presidency, which, like the directly elected unicameral
Iran’s top directly elected position is the presidency, which, like the directly elected unicameral
parliament (the Islamic Consultative Assembly, also known as the parliament (the Islamic Consultative Assembly, also known as the
Majles) and every other organ ) and every other organ
of Iran’s government, is subordinate to the Supreme Leader. Incumbent president Ebrahim Raisi, of Iran’s government, is subordinate to the Supreme Leader. Incumbent president Ebrahim Raisi,
a hardliner close to Khameneia hardliner close to Khamenei
who reportedly played a role in a judicial decision to approve the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988, won the June 2021 election to succeed the , won the June 2021 election to succeed the
moderate Hassan Rouhani.117 Rouhani, who won elections in 2013 and 2017, had overseen Iran’s negotiations with the United States and its entry into the JCPOA. The 2018 U.S. exit from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions, as well as the January 2020 U.S. killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, appeared to shift public support away from moderates like Rouhani.118 Hardliners prevailed in the February 2020 Majles elections.
The June 2021 presidential election appears to have cemented this shift toward a more hardline approach to the United States. Rouhani was term-limited and ineligible to run; the government also banned several moderate candidates from running. These circumstances might have
114 Testimony of Department of State Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, in U.S. Congress, Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism, China’s Role in the Middle East, hearing, 117th Cong., 2nd sess., August 4, 2022. 115 “Experts react: Iran and Saudi Arabia just agreed to restore relations, with help from China. Here’s what that means for the Middle East and the world,” Atlantic Council, March 10, 2023; Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani, “How China’s Saudi-Iran deal can serve U.S. interests,” Foreign Policy, March 14, 2023; Adam Gallagher et al., “What you need to know about China’s Saudi-Iran deal,” United States Institute of Peace, March 16, 2023.. 116 Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2022: Frontline democracy and the battle for Ukraine, February 2023.
117 In Iran’s political system, hardliners, who support the Islamic Republic and generally oppose accommodation with the West, are also known as conservatives or “principlists”; “reformists” generally support greater political openness and engagement with the West. “Moderates” exist between these groups, but are increasingly identified with the reformists. Benoit Faucon and David Cloud, “Confronting Iran protests, regime uses brute force but secretly appeals to moderates,” Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2022. 118 Kim Sengupta, “Iran’s moderates fear backlash in crucial election as supreme leader Khamenei urges voters to ‘foil evil American intentions,’” Independent, February 19, 2020.
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contributed to this election having the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history up to that point; slightly less than half (49%) of eligible Iranians voted. Turnout declined further to 41% in March 2024 elections for the Majles and the Assembly of Experts, a body whose constitutional responsibilities include selecting the Supreme Leader; hardliners dominated those elections, in which most other candidates were disqualified from running.119
Iran has intermittently experienced popular unrest, including mass demonstrations that shook Iran moderate Hassan
100 Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani, “How China’s Saudi-Iran deal can serve U.S. interests,” Foreign Policy, March 14, 2023; Adam Gallagher et al., “What you need to know about China’s Saudi-Iran deal,” United States Institute of Peace, March 16, 2023.
101 “Iran, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to Beijing Agreement,” Middle East Monitor, December 17, 2023. 102 Ibid. 103 “Russia and Iran Military Ties Deepening Into Partnership, Biden Administration Warns,” Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2022.
104 “Moscow, Tehran Advance Plans for Iranian-Designed Drone Facility in Russia,” Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2023; Dalton Bennett and Mary Ilyushina, “Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help,” Washington Post, August 17, 2023.
105 Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2022: Frontline democracy and the battle for Ukraine, February 2023.
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Rouhani, who won elections in 2013 and 2017.106 Rouhani oversaw Iran’s negotiations with the United States and its entry into the JCPOA. The 2018 U.S. exit from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions, as well as the January 2020 U.S. killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, appeared to shift public support away from moderates like Rouhani.107 Hardliners prevailed in the February 2020 Majles elections.
The June 2021 presidential election appears to have cemented this shift toward a more hardline approach to the United States. Rouhani was term-limited and ineligible to run; the government also banned several moderate candidates from running. These circumstances might have contributed to this election having the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history; slightly less than half (49%) of eligible Iranians voted. Raisi, who reportedly played a role in a judicial decision to approve the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988, had lost the 2017 presidential election to Rouhani. In 2019 Khamenei appointed Raisi to head Iran’s judiciary. Raisi’s presidential victory may boost his chances of succeeding Khamenei as Supreme Leader.108 Elections for the Majles and the Assembly of Experts, a body whose constitutional responsibilities include selecting the Supreme Leader, are scheduled for March 2024.
Mass demonstrations shook Iran in 2009 and 2010, when hundreds of thousands of demonstrators in 2009 and 2010, when hundreds of thousands of demonstrators
took to the streets of Iran’s urban centers to protest alleged fraud in the 2009 presidential election. took to the streets of Iran’s urban centers to protest alleged fraud in the 2009 presidential election.
Iran has experienced unrest intermittently since then, includingOther periods of upheaval since then include protests in December 2017, summer 2018, in December 2017, summer 2018,
and late 2019, based most frequently on economic conditions but also reflecting other and late 2019, based most frequently on economic conditions but also reflecting other
opposition togrievances with Iran’s leadership. The government has often used violence to disperse protests, in which Iran’s leadership. The government has often used violence to disperse protests, in which
hundreds have been killed by security forces. U.S. and U.N. assessments have long cited Iran’s hundreds have been killed by security forces. U.S. and U.N. assessments have long cited Iran’s
government for a wide range of human rights abuses in addition to its repression of political government for a wide range of human rights abuses in addition to its repression of political
dissent and use of force against protesters, including severe violations of religious freedom and dissent and use of force against protesters, including severe violations of religious freedom and
women’s rights, human trafficking, and corporal punishment. women’s rights, human trafficking, and corporal punishment.
2022-2023 Political Protests
The September 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by Iran’s Morality The September 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by Iran’s Morality
Police for allegedly violating Iran’s mandatory Police for allegedly violating Iran’s mandatory
hijab (head covering) law and died after (head covering) law and died after
reportedly having been beaten in custody, sparked nationwide unrest in late 2022. In protests reportedly having been beaten in custody, sparked nationwide unrest in late 2022. In protests
throughout the country, demonstrators voiced a broad range of grievances, with some calling for throughout the country, demonstrators voiced a broad range of grievances, with some calling for
an end to the Islamic Republic and chanting “death to the dictator.” Women played a prominent an end to the Islamic Republic and chanting “death to the dictator.” Women played a prominent
role in the protests.role in the protests.
109120 In response In response
to the protests, the Iranian government deployed security forces , the Iranian government deployed security forces
who reportedly killed hundreds of protesters and arrested thousands. Iranian officials, who who reportedly killed hundreds of protesters and arrested thousands. Iranian officials, who
blamed the United States and other foreign countries for fomenting what they called “riots,” also blamed the United States and other foreign countries for fomenting what they called “riots,” also
shut down internet access.shut down internet access.
In March 2024, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran issued its first report to the United Nations Human Rights Council, assessing that the Iranian government’s “violent repression of peaceful protests…led to serious human rights violations,” including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, rape, and gender persecution.121
Throughout fall 2022, observers debated whether the protests, information about which remains
Throughout fall 2022, observers debated whether the protests, information about which remains
opaque and highly contested, represented the “turning point” that some activists claimed: opaque and highly contested, represented the “turning point” that some activists claimed:
one
106 In Iran’s political system, hardliners, who support the Islamic Republic and generally oppose accommodation with the West, are also known as conservatives or “principlists”; “reformists” generally support greater political openness and engagement with the West. “Moderates” exist between these groups, but are increasingly identified with the reformists. Benoit Faucon and David Cloud, “Confronting Iran protests, regime uses brute force but secretly appeals to moderates,” Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2022. 107 Garrett Nada, “Iran’s Parliamentary Polls: Hardliners on the Rise, Reformists Ruled Out,” United States Institute of Peace, February 12, 2021. In Iran’s political system, hardliners are also known as “principlists,” moderates as “reformists.” 108 Parisa Hafezi, “Winner of Iran presidency is hardline judge who is under U.S. sanctions,” Reuters, June 20, 2021. 109for example, one observer compared 2022 unrest to the circumstances that preceded the 1979 Islamic Revolution, while another discounted the revolutionary potential of the protests.122 The demonstrations of 2022 were smaller and more geographically dispersed than those of 2009, and reportedly included protestors from a diverse range of social groups. In December 2022, as the protests appeared to wane, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated, “this is not something that we see right now as being … an imminent threat to the regime.”123
119 Mehrzad Boroujerdi, “Iran’s Faustian 2024 elections: Statistics tell the story,” Stimson Center, March 4, 2024. 120 Suzanne Kianpour, “The women of Iran are not backing down,” Politico, January 22, 2023. 121 United Nations, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, “Iran: Institutional discrimination against women and girls enabled human rights violations and crimes against humanity in the context of recent protests, UN Fact-Finding Mission says,” March 8, 2024.
122 Ray Takeyh, “A second Iranian revolution?” Commentary, November 2022; Sajjed Safael, “Iran’s protests are nowhere near revolutionary,” Foreign Policy, January 17, 2023. 123 “DNI Avril Haines: Protests in Iran not an ‘imminent threat to the regime’” MSNBC, December 5, 2022.
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As of April Suzanne Kianpour, “The women of Iran are not backing down,” Politico, January 22, 2023.
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observer compared 2022 unrest to the circumstances that preceded the 1979 Islamic Revolution, while another discounted the revolutionary potential of the protests.110 The demonstrations of 2022 were smaller and more geographically dispersed than those of 2009, and reportedly included protestors from a diverse range of social groups. In December 2022, as the protests appeared to wane, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated, “this is not something that we see right now as being … an imminent threat to the regime.”111
As of January 2024, the protest movement has receded but the fundamental grievances that 2024, the protest movement has receded but the fundamental grievances that
motivated the outbreak of unrest in September 2022 (and in previous years) remain unresolved, motivated the outbreak of unrest in September 2022 (and in previous years) remain unresolved,
so further rounds of popular protests are possible. The protest movement apparently lacks an so further rounds of popular protests are possible. The protest movement apparently lacks an
organized structure, a visible leader, and a shared alternative vision for Iran’s future, and therefore organized structure, a visible leader, and a shared alternative vision for Iran’s future, and therefore
may have limited capacity to pose an existential risk to the Islamic Republic. Many Iranian may have limited capacity to pose an existential risk to the Islamic Republic. Many Iranian
women (particularly in urban areas) have reportedly stopped wearing mandatory head coverings, women (particularly in urban areas) have reportedly stopped wearing mandatory head coverings,
prompting Iran’s parliament to pass legislation to impose heavier punishments on women who prompting Iran’s parliament to pass legislation to impose heavier punishments on women who
flout the mandate.flout the mandate.
112
U.S. Policy Responses to the Protests
New sanctions designations. Since September 2022, the Biden Administration has 124 Iranian police reportedly launched a crackdown on women in Tehran accused of violating the mandatory head covering law in April 2024.125
In response to the protests, the Biden Administration announced announced
sanctions designations targeting Iran’s Morality Police and dozens of other government entities sanctions designations targeting Iran’s Morality Police and dozens of other government entities
and officials for their role in the and officials for their role in the
crackdown.
General license and Internet service. In September 2022, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued Iran General License D-2, designedcrackdown; issued a general license to counter what to counter what
officials described as Tehran’s move to “cut off access to the Internet for most of its 80 million officials described as Tehran’s move to “cut off access to the Internet for most of its 80 million
citizens to prevent the world from watching its citizens to prevent the world from watching its
violent crackdown on peaceful protestors;” andviolent crackdown on peaceful protestors.”113 Treasury officials stated that the new license expands access to cloud-based services, Virtual Private Networks (VPNs), and anti-surveillance tools critical to secure communication. In March 2023, a State Department spokesperson said “several U.S. companies have in turn taken advantage of the expanded authorization that we’ve provided.”114
Action at international bodies. In late November 2022, the U.N. Human Rights Council authorized an independent fact-finding mission (FFM) to investigate allegations of human rights abuses committed by the Iranian government.115 The FFM is expected to present a comprehensive report on its findings at the March 2024 meeting of the Human Rights Council. The United States also led a successful effort to remove Iran from the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women in led a successful effort to remove Iran from the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women in
December 2022.
Congressional Action. In the 118th Congress, some Members have introduced several resolutions and bills related to the protests. In January 2023, the House voted 420-1 to agree to H.Con.Res. 7, which condemns Amini’s death and the violent suppression of protests and “encourages continued
110 Ray Takeyh, “A second Iranian revolution?” Commentary, November 2022; Sajjed Safael, “Iran’s protests are nowhere near revolutionary,” Foreign Policy, January 17, 2023. 111 “DNI Avril Haines: Protests in Iran not an ‘imminent threat to the regime’” MSNBC, December 5, 2022. 112 Nasser Karimi and Jon Gambrell, “A year ago, an Iranian woman’s death sparked hijab protests. Now businesses are a new battleground,” Associated Press, August 10, 2023; “Iran’s politicians to debate hijab laws in secret,” BBC, August 13, 2023.
113 U.S. Department of the Treasury, “U.S. Treasury issues Iran General License D-2 to increase support for internet freedom,” September 23, 2022. 114 U.S. Department of State, Department Press Briefing, March 1, 2023. 115 Office of the High Commissioner, “Human Rights Council establishes fact-finding mission to investigate alleged human rights violations in Iran related to the protests that began on 16 September 2022,” November 24, 2022.
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efforts” by the Biden Administration to respond to the protests via sanctions and the expansion of unrestricted internet access in Iran. In September 2023, the House voted 410-3 to pass the Mahsa Amini Human rights and Security Accountability Act (MAHSA Act, H.R. 589), which would direct the Administration to review whether specified Iranian entities meet the criteria for designation under certain existing sanctions authorities.December 2022.126
Iran’s Military: Structure and Capabilities
Given the adversarial nature of U.S.-Iran relations and the centrality of various military-related Given the adversarial nature of U.S.-Iran relations and the centrality of various military-related
entities in Iranian domestic and foreign policy, Iran’s military has been a subject of sustained entities in Iranian domestic and foreign policy, Iran’s military has been a subject of sustained
engagement by Congress and other U.S. policymakers. engagement by Congress and other U.S. policymakers.
In 2023 testimony, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Erik Kurilla said, “The advancement of Iranian military capabilities over the past 40 years is unparalleled in the region.”116 The elements of Iran’s The elements of Iran’s
military that arguably threaten U.S. interests most directly are Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard military that arguably threaten U.S. interests most directly are Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) and the country’s missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV, or drone) programs. Corps (IRGC) and the country’s missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV, or drone) programs.
Iran’s traditional military force, the
Iran’s traditional military force, the
Artesh, is a legacy of Iran’s Shah-era military force. The , is a legacy of Iran’s Shah-era military force. The
Artesh exists alongside the IRGC, which Khomeini established in 1979 as a force loyal to the new exists alongside the IRGC, which Khomeini established in 1979 as a force loyal to the new
regime. Rivalries between the two parallel forces (each have their own land, air, and naval force regime. Rivalries between the two parallel forces (each have their own land, air, and naval force
components) stem from their “uneven access to resources, varying levels of influence with the components) stem from their “uneven access to resources, varying levels of influence with the
regime, and inherent overlap in missions and responsibilities.”regime, and inherent overlap in missions and responsibilities.”
117127 While both serve to defend Iran While both serve to defend Iran
against external threats, the government deploys the against external threats, the government deploys the
Artesh primarily along Iran’s borders to primarily along Iran’s borders to
counter any invading force, while the IRGC has a more ideological character and the more counter any invading force, while the IRGC has a more ideological character and the more
expansive mission of combating internal threats and expanding Iran’s influence abroad. expansive mission of combating internal threats and expanding Iran’s influence abroad.
Ballistic Missiles
According to the U.S. intelligence community,
According to the U.S. intelligence community,
Iran has “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region” and, as of 2022, had steadily improved the range and accuracy of its more than 3,000 ballistic missiles over “the last five to seven years.”118“Iran’s ballistic missile programs have the largest inventory in the region and Tehran is emphasizing improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of its missiles.”128 Per CENTCOM Commander Per CENTCOM Commander
General Michael E. Kurilla, Iran has aggressively developed its missile capabilities to achieve “an asymmetric Kurilla, Iran has aggressively developed its missile capabilities to achieve “an asymmetric
advantage against regional militaries.”119 Iran has used its ballistic missiles to target U.S. regional assets directly, including a January 2020 attack (shortly following the U.S. killing of IRGC-QF Commander Soleimani) against Iraqi sites where U.S. military forces were stationed, and attacks against Iraq’s Kurdistan region in March and September 2022.120
Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles were assessed by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in 2019 to have a maximum range of around 2,000 kilometers from Iran’s borders, reportedly capable of reaching targets as far as Israel or southeastern Europe.121 U.S. officials and others
116 General Michael Kurilla, “Statement for the Record before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Posture of U.S. Central Command,” March 13, 2023.
117advantage against
124 Nasser Karimi and Jon Gambrell, “A year ago, an Iranian woman’s death sparked hijab protests. Now businesses are a new battleground,” Associated Press, August 10, 2023; “Iran’s politicians to debate hijab laws in secret,” BBC, August 13, 2023.
125 “Wave of complaints follows police hijab crackdown in Tehran,” Radio Farda, April 16, 2024. 126 U.S. Department of the Treasury, “U.S. Treasury issues Iran General License D-2 to increase support for internet freedom,” September 23, 2022. 127 Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency,
Iran Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance, ,
2019. 2019.
118128 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, February 5, 2024.
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regional militaries.”129 Iran has used its ballistic missiles to target U.S. regional assets directly, including a January 2020 attack (shortly following the U.S. killing of IRGC-QF Commander Soleimani) against Iraqi sites where U.S. military forces were stationed, and attacks against Iraq’s Kurdistan region in March and September 2022.130
Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles were assessed by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in 2019 to have a maximum range of around 2,000 kilometers from Iran’s borders, reportedly capable of reaching targets as far as southeastern Europe; General Kurilla repeated that estimate in 2024 testimony.131 U.S. officials and others Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, March 8, 2023; Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing, March 15, 2022, available at http://www.cq.com/doc/congressionaltranscripts-6484358.
119 Statement for the Record before the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 13, 2023. 120 “Who would live and who would die: The inside story of the Iranian attack on Al Asad Airbase,” CBS News, August 8, 2021; “Iran attacks Iraq’s Erbil with missiles in warning to U.S., allies,” Reuters, March 13, 2022; White House, “Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Iran’s Missile and Drone Attacks in Northern Iraq,” September 28, 2022.
121 Iran Military Power, op. cit. 43.
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have expressed concern that Iran’s government could use its nascent space program to develop have expressed concern that Iran’s government could use its nascent space program to develop
longer-range missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).longer-range missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
122132 According to a According to a
congressionally mandated report issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in congressionally mandated report issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in
June 2023, Iran’s work on space launch vehicles (SLVs) “shortens the timeline to an ICBM if it June 2023, Iran’s work on space launch vehicles (SLVs) “shortens the timeline to an ICBM if it
decided to develop one because SLVs and ICBMs use similar technologies.”decided to develop one because SLVs and ICBMs use similar technologies.”
123133 The Biden The Biden
Administration has designated for sanctions several Iranian and Chinese entities for their Administration has designated for sanctions several Iranian and Chinese entities for their
involvement in the Iranian government’s ballistic missile involvement in the Iranian government’s ballistic missile
activities.134 As mentioned above, U.S. officials reportedly assess that half of the ballistic missiles Iran attempted to launch at Israel in April 2024 failed to reach Israel, and most of those that did were shot down.135 activities.124 The House voted 403-8 in September 2023 to pass the Fight and Combat Rampant Iranian Missile Exports Act (Fight CRIME Act, H.R. 3152), which would further authorize sanctions on individuals determined to be engaged in Iran’s missile programs.
Iran’s Missile Program and U.N. Sanctions “Snapback”125136
In July 2015, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2231 (UNSCR 2231), which, in addition to endorsing
In July 2015, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2231 (UNSCR 2231), which, in addition to endorsing
ful implementation of the JCPOA, also contained provisions related to Iran’s arms and missile development ful implementation of the JCPOA, also contained provisions related to Iran’s arms and missile development
activities. Specifical y, Annex B of the Resolution provides for a ban on the transfer of conventional arms to or activities. Specifical y, Annex B of the Resolution provides for a ban on the transfer of conventional arms to or
from Iran (the conventional weapons ban expired in October 2020), and restricts exports of missile-related items from Iran (the conventional weapons ban expired in October 2020), and restricts exports of missile-related items
until October 2023. UNSCR 2231 also includes provisions that effectively allow any “JCPOA participant state” to until October 2023. UNSCR 2231 also includes provisions that effectively allow any “JCPOA participant state” to
force the reimposition of UN sanctions, including the arms transfer and ballistic missile bans as well as a ban on force the reimposition of UN sanctions, including the arms transfer and ballistic missile bans as well as a ban on
purchasing Iranian oil, in a process known as “snapback.” In August 2020, the Trump Administration invoked the purchasing Iranian oil, in a process known as “snapback.” In August 2020, the Trump Administration invoked the
snapback provision in an attempt to extend the conventional arms embargo, but most other members of the snapback provision in an attempt to extend the conventional arms embargo, but most other members of the
Security Council (including JCPOA participants France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China) asserted that the Security Council (including JCPOA participants France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China) asserted that the
United States, having ceased implementing its JCPOA commitments in 2018, was not a participant and therefore United States, having ceased implementing its JCPOA commitments in 2018, was not a participant and therefore
did not have the standing to trigger the snapback of sanctions, and the conventional arms ban expired in October did not have the standing to trigger the snapback of sanctions, and the conventional arms ban expired in October
2020.2020.
126137 The Biden Administration has reversed the Trump Administration’s position on the snapback provision. The Biden Administration has reversed the Trump Administration’s position on the snapback provision.
On October 18, 2023, U.N. sanctions related to Iran’s missile-related activities also expiredOn October 18, 2023, U.N. sanctions related to Iran’s missile-related activities also expired
, though the United States and many European countries have retained their own sanctions on those activities. On the day the ban expired, the Treasury Department announced sanctions on twenty individuals and entities (including some in China) for their support for Iran’s missile and UAV programs. Some argue that the expiration of U.N. sanctions wil strengthen both Iran and its ties with other U.S. adversaries like Russia.127 Others contend the impact of the expiration is likely to be minimal, given existing U.S. and other bilateral sanctions.128
UAVs
According to CENTCOM, Iran has also developed “the largest and most capable Unmanned Aerial Vehicle force in the region,” with which it has attacked numerous foreign targets.129 While Iranian drones are not as technologically complex or advanced as the U.S. UAVs on which the Iranian versions are often modeled, they are a cost-effective way of projecting power, especially
122; on the day of expiration the United States and 47 other countries issued a statement expressing their commitment to “take all
129 Statement for the Record before the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 13, 2023. 130 “Who would live and who would die: The inside story of the Iranian attack on Al Asad Airbase,” CBS News, August 8, 2021; “Iran attacks Iraq’s Erbil with missiles in warning to U.S., allies,” Reuters, March 13, 2022; White House, “Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Iran’s Missile and Drone Attacks in Northern Iraq,” September 28, 2022.
131 Iran Military Power, op. cit. 43; “Two visions for the future of the Central Command,” March 7, 2024. 132 Annual Threat Assessment, op. cit.; Farzin Nadimi, “Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is still growing in size, reach, and , op. cit.; Farzin Nadimi, “Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is still growing in size, reach, and
accuracy,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, December 13, 2021. accuracy,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, December 13, 2021.
123133 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Office of the Director of National Intelligence,
Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of
2022, June 2023. , June 2023.
124134 U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Treasury Sanctions Key Actors in Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” March 30, U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Treasury Sanctions Key Actors in Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” March 30,
2022; “Treasury sanctions international procurement network supporting Iran’s missile and military programs,” June 6, 2022; “Treasury sanctions international procurement network supporting Iran’s missile and military programs,” June 6,
2023. 2023.
125135 Laurence Norman, “Iran attack demonstrates ballistic missile capabilities,” Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2024. 136 For more, see CRS In Focus IF11583, For more, see CRS In Focus IF11583,
Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.N. Sanctions Reimposition, by Paul K. Kerr. , by Paul K. Kerr.
126137 “UNSC dismisses US demand to impose ‘snapback’ sanctions on Iran,” “UNSC dismisses US demand to impose ‘snapback’ sanctions on Iran,”
Al Jazeera, August 25, 2020., August 25, 2020.
For more, see For more, see
CRS In Focus IF11429, CRS In Focus IF11429,
U.N. Ban on Iran Arms Transfers and Sanctions Snapback. .
127 Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Expiration of UN ban on Iran’s missile development will strengthen U.S. adversaries,” October 16, 2023. 128 Vali Kaleji, “Expiration of UN missile sanctions has limited effect on Iran’s arms trade,” Jamestown Foundation, November 30, 2023.
129 Statement for the Record, op. cit.
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necessary measures to prevent” the transfer of drones and related technology to and from Iran.138 Some observers have argued that the expiration of U.N. sanctions wil strengthen both Iran and its ties with other U.S. adversaries like Russia.139 Others contend the impact of the expiration is likely to be minimal, given existing U.S. and other bilateral sanctions and the evident inability of the ban to constrain Iran’s drone exports while in place.140
UAVs
While Iranian drones are not as technologically complex or advanced as the U.S. or Israeli UAVs on which the Iranian versions are often modeled, they are a cost-effective way of projecting power, especially given Iran’s underdeveloped air force. Traditional air defense systems have difficulty intercepting given Iran’s underdeveloped air force. Traditional air defense systems have difficulty intercepting
UAVs, in part because such systems were designed to detect manned aircraft with larger radar UAVs, in part because such systems were designed to detect manned aircraft with larger radar
and/or heat signatures.and/or heat signatures.
130141 Iran’s drone operations include attacks in September 2019 against Saudi Iran’s drone operations include attacks in September 2019 against Saudi
oil production facilitiesoil production facilities
in Abqaiq, a complex assault that featured 18 drones and several land-, a complex assault that featured 18 drones and several land-
attack cruise missiles; in July 2021 against an oil tanker off the coast of Oman; and in October attack cruise missiles; in July 2021 against an oil tanker off the coast of Oman; and in October
2021 against a U.S. military base in At Tanf, Syria. 2021 against a U.S. military base in At Tanf, Syria.
Iran’s April 2024 attack on Israel also featured 150 or more drones. The Biden Administration has designated for The Biden Administration has designated for
sanctions numerous individuals and entities that have supported Iran’s UAV programssanctions numerous individuals and entities that have supported Iran’s UAV programs
,131 and in the 117th Congress the House passed, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee reported, a bill (H.R. 6089) that would have required the President to impose sanctions on persons that engage in activities related to Iranian UAVs.132 In August 2022, Iran began transferring armed drones to Russia, which has used them against Ukrainian forces and civilian infrastructure.133
Iran’s Nuclear Program134.142 Iran’s drone program is at the heart of its growing military partnership with Russia: according to news accounts, Iran has transferred “at least 1,000 attack drones” and “dozens of multipurpose” drones to Russia, and the two countries have engaged in a “joint venture” at a factory in southeastern Russia that is producing hundreds of Iranian-designed drones.143 Iran has also reportedly exported drones to other countries, such as Ethiopia, Sudan, and Venezuela.144
Iran’s Nuclear Program145
U.S. policymakers have signaled concern for decades that Tehran might attempt to develop U.S. policymakers have signaled concern for decades that Tehran might attempt to develop
nuclear weapons. Iran’s construction of gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facilities is currently nuclear weapons. Iran’s construction of gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facilities is currently
the main source of concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. Gas centrifuges can produce the main source of concern that Tehran is pursuing nuclear weapons. Gas centrifuges can produce
both low-enriched uranium (LEU), which can be used in nuclear power reactors, and weapons-both low-enriched uranium (LEU), which can be used in nuclear power reactors, and weapons-
grade highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is one of the two types of fissile material used in grade highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is one of the two types of fissile material used in
nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders claim that the country’s LEU production is only for Tehran’s nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders claim that the country’s LEU production is only for Tehran’s
current and future civil nuclear reactors. current and future civil nuclear reactors.
U.S. policy has focused on using various means of coercive diplomacy to pressure Iran to agree to limits on its nuclear program. The Obama Administration pursued a “dual track” strategy of stronger economic pressure through increased sanctions coupled with offers of sanctions relief if Iran accepted constraints on the nuclear program. Many observers assess that U.S. and multilateral sanctions contributed to Iran’s 2013 decision to enter into negotiations that concluded in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).135
2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
The JCPOA imposed restraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from most U.S. and U.N. Security Council economic sanctions. The agreement restricted Iran’s enrichment and heavy water reactor programs and provided for enhanced IAEA monitoring to detect Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons using either declared or covert facilities. The nuclear-related provisions of the agreement, according to U.S. officials, extended the nuclear breakout time—the
130
138 U.S. Department of State, “Joint statement on UN Security Council Resolution 2231 Transition Day,” October 18, 2023.
139 Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Expiration of UN ban on Iran's missile development will strengthen U.S. adversaries,” October 16, 2023.
140 Vali Kaleji, “Expiration of UN missile sanctions has limited effect on Iran’s arms trade,” Jamestown Foundation, November 30, 2023.
141 Golnaz Esfandiari, “Iran deploys drones to target internal threats, protect external interests,” Golnaz Esfandiari, “Iran deploys drones to target internal threats, protect external interests,”
RFE/RL, January 18, , January 18,
2022. 2022.
131142 See, for example, U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Treasury sanctions network and individuals in connection with See, for example, U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Treasury sanctions network and individuals in connection with
Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle program,” October 29, 2021; “Treasury sanctions multinational network supporting Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle program,” October 29, 2021; “Treasury sanctions multinational network supporting
Iran’s UAV and military aircraft production,” September 19, 2023. Iran’s UAV and military aircraft production,” September 19, 2023.
132 The bill would amend Section 107 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA. P.L. 115-44) to include unmanned combat aerial vehicles.
133 Ellen Nakashima and Joby Warrick, “Iran sends first shipment of drones to Russia for use in Ukraine,” Washington
Post, August 29, 2022; Yaroslav Trofimov and Dion Nissenbaum, “Russia’s use of Iranian kamikaze drones creates new dangers for Ukrainian troops,” Wall Street Journal, September 17, 2022. 134143 Joby Warrick, “Russian weapons help Iran harden defenses against Israeli airstrike,” op. cit. 144 Euan Ward and Farnaz Fassihi, “Iran ramps up drone exports, signaling global ambitions,” New York Times, July 28, 2022; Peter Waldman et al., “Iran’s better, stealthier drones are remaking global warfare,” Bloomberg, April 8, 2024.
145 Material in this section is drawn from CRS Report R43333, Material in this section is drawn from CRS Report R43333,
Iran Nuclear Agreement and U.S. Exit, which contains , which contains
additional information on Iran’s nuclear program and the JCPOA. additional information on Iran’s nuclear program and the JCPOA.
135 Uri Berliner, “Crippled by sanctions, Iran’s economy key in nuclear deal,” NPR, November 25, 2013; Amir Toumaj, “Iran’s economy of resistance: implications for future sanctions,” AEI, November 17, 2014; “Inside the Iran nuclear deal,” Harvard Gazette, October 6, 2015.
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2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) The Obama Administration pursued a “dual track” strategy of stronger economic pressure through increased sanctions coupled with offers of sanctions relief if Iran accepted constraints on the nuclear program. Many observers assess that U.S. and multilateral sanctions contributed to Iran’s 2013 decision to enter into negotiations that concluded in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).146
The JCPOA imposed restraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from most U.S. and U.N. Security Council economic sanctions. The agreement restricted Iran’s enrichment and heavy water reactor programs and provided for enhanced IAEA monitoring to detect Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons using either declared or covert facilities. The nuclear-related provisions of the agreement, according to U.S. officials, extended the nuclear breakout time—the amount of time that Iran would need to produce enough weapons-grade HEU for one nuclear amount of time that Iran would need to produce enough weapons-grade HEU for one nuclear
weapon—to a minimum of one year, for a duration of at least 10 years.weapon—to a minimum of one year, for a duration of at least 10 years.
136147 In addition to the In addition to the
restrictions on activities related to fissile material production, the JCPOA indefinitely prohibited restrictions on activities related to fissile material production, the JCPOA indefinitely prohibited
Iranian “activities which could contribute to the design and development of a nuclear explosive Iranian “activities which could contribute to the design and development of a nuclear explosive
device,” including research and diagnostic activities. The IAEA continues to monitor Iranian device,” including research and diagnostic activities. The IAEA continues to monitor Iranian
compliance with the JCPOA provisions but since 2019 has reported diminishing Iranian compliance with the JCPOA provisions but since 2019 has reported diminishing Iranian
cooperation with JCPOA-mandated monitoring.cooperation with JCPOA-mandated monitoring.
137148
Sanctions relief..
138149 In accordance with the JCPOA, the United States waived its secondary In accordance with the JCPOA, the United States waived its secondary
sanctions—sanctions—
restrictions on any penalties on third country third country
entities engaging in some types of trade with Iran, primarily engaging in some types of trade with Iran, primarily
in the energy sector—in 2016. The secondary sanctions eased during JCPOA implementation in the energy sector—in 2016. The secondary sanctions eased during JCPOA implementation
included included
(1) sanctions that limitedsanctions on Iran’s exportation of oil and on its financial Iran’s exportation of oil and foreign sales to Iran of gasoline and energy sector equipment, and that limited foreign investment in Iran’s energy sector; (2) financial sector sanctions, including trading in Iran’s currency, the rial; and (3) sanctions on Iran’s auto sector sector
. The European Union (EU) lifted its ban on purchases of oil The European Union (EU) lifted its ban on purchases of oil
and gas from Iran; and from Iran; and
Iranian banks were readmitted to the SWIFT financial messaging services system.Iranian banks were readmitted to the SWIFT financial messaging services system.
139150 The U.N. The U.N.
Security Council revoked its resolutions that required member states to impose Security Council revoked its resolutions that required member states to impose
certain restrictions. The restrictions. The
JCPOA did not require the lifting of U.S. sanctions on direct U.S.-Iran trade or sanctions levied JCPOA did not require the lifting of U.S. sanctions on direct U.S.-Iran trade or sanctions levied
for Iran’s support for regional armed factions and terrorist groups, its human rights abuses, or its for Iran’s support for regional armed factions and terrorist groups, its human rights abuses, or its
efforts to acquire missile and advanced conventional weapons technology. efforts to acquire missile and advanced conventional weapons technology.
TheIn 2018, the United States United States
reimposed reimposed
sanctionsthose sanctions that had been waived pursuant to JCPOA implementation waived pursuant to JCPOA implementation
in 2018 (see below). (see below).
Post-2019 nuclear developments.140151 The IAEA has reported that some of Iran’s nuclear The IAEA has reported that some of Iran’s nuclear
activities, including Iran’s LEU stockpile and number of enrichment locations, exceed JCPOA-activities, including Iran’s LEU stockpile and number of enrichment locations, exceed JCPOA-
mandated limits, and that the agency is unable to fully perform JCPOA verification and mandated limits, and that the agency is unable to fully perform JCPOA verification and
monitoring activities. monitoring activities.
In March 2023, after the detection of uranium particles enriched to 83.7% at Iran’s Fordow enrichment site sparked U.S. and international concern,141 IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that the agency and Iran “have initiated technical discussions to fully clarify this issue.”142 In June 2023, Grossi reported that “some progress has been made, but not as much as I had hoped,” though the agency reportedly had no further questions regarding the highly enriched uranium particles.143 In response, the U.S. Representative to the IAEA “underscored that Iran’s production of uranium enriched up to 60% has no credible peaceful purpose,” and called on
136Iran’s September 2023 de-designation of several IAEA inspectors,
146 Uri Berliner, “Crippled by sanctions, Iran’s economy key in nuclear deal,” NPR, November 25, 2013; Amir Toumaj, “Iran’s economy of resistance: implications for future sanctions,” AEI, November 17, 2014; “Inside the Iran nuclear deal,” Harvard Gazette, October 6, 2015. 147 “Background Conference Call by Senior Administration Officials on Iran,” July 14, 2015. U.S. Secretary of Energy “Background Conference Call by Senior Administration Officials on Iran,” July 14, 2015. U.S. Secretary of Energy
Ernest Moniz described this timeline as “very, very conservative” in an April 2015 interview (Michael Crowley, Ernest Moniz described this timeline as “very, very conservative” in an April 2015 interview (Michael Crowley,
“Ernest Moniz: Iran Deal Closes Enrichment Loophole,” “Ernest Moniz: Iran Deal Closes Enrichment Loophole,”
Politico, April 7, 2015). See also CRS In Focus IF12106, , April 7, 2015). See also CRS In Focus IF12106,
Iran
and Nuclear Weapons Production, by Paul K. Kerr. , by Paul K. Kerr.
137148 CRS Report R40094, CRS Report R40094,
Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations, by Paul K. , by Paul K.
Kerr. Kerr.
138149 For additional details on sanctions waived under the JCPOA, see CRS Report RS20871, For additional details on sanctions waived under the JCPOA, see CRS Report RS20871,
Iran Sanctions. .
139150 The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), based in Belgium, provides a The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), based in Belgium, provides a
financial messaging service to facilitate cross-border transactions, including payments involving multiple currencies. financial messaging service to facilitate cross-border transactions, including payments involving multiple currencies.
International energy-sector trade heavily depends on SWIFT services. International energy-sector trade heavily depends on SWIFT services.
140151 For more, see CRS Report R40094, For more, see CRS Report R40094,
Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations, ,
by Paul K. Kerr. by Paul K. Kerr.
141 Karen DeYoung and Joby Warrick, “Iran nuclear advance challenges U.S. as time to make potential bomb shortens,” Washington Post, March 2, 2023. 142 IAEA Director General’s introductory statement to the Board of Governors, IAEA, March 6, 2023. 143 IAEA Director General’s introductory statement to the Board of Governors, IAEA, June 5, 2023; Stephanie Liechtenstein, “International Atomic Energy Agency reports seen by AP say Iran resolves 2 inquiries by inspectors,” Associated Press, May 31, 2023.
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Iran to “cease its nuclear provocations.”144 In June 2023, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported that “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”145
Iran’s September 2023 de-designation of several IAEA inspectors, Congressional Research Service
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effectively barring them from effectively barring them from
taking part in the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program, drew condemnation from the IAEA taking part in the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program, drew condemnation from the IAEA
Director General, who called the move “disproportionate and unprecedented” and “another step Director General, who called the move “disproportionate and unprecedented” and “another step
in the wrong direction” that “constitutes an unnecessary blow to an already strained relationship in the wrong direction” that “constitutes an unnecessary blow to an already strained relationship
between the IAEA and Iran.”between the IAEA and Iran.”
146152 Iran reportedly continued to advance its nuclear activities in late Iran reportedly continued to advance its nuclear activities in late
2023, increasing its “production of highly enriched uranium” in November 2023, “reversing a 2023, increasing its “production of highly enriched uranium” in November 2023, “reversing a
previous output reduction from mid-2023.”previous output reduction from mid-2023.”
147
Issues for Congress
Sanctions148153 The IAEA reported those trends continuing, with Iran having further increased its stockpile of enriched uranium, in its February 2024 report. In testimony the next month, General Kurilla stated that Iran “could enrich enough uranium for three nuclear devices within weeks.”154 The U.S. Intelligence Community continues to assess that Iran “is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities to produce a testable nuclear device” but that it has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”155
U.S. Sanctions156
Since 1979, U.S. administrations have imposed economic sanctions in an effort to change Iran’s Since 1979, U.S. administrations have imposed economic sanctions in an effort to change Iran’s
behavior, often at the direction of Congress.behavior, often at the direction of Congress.
149 U.S. sanctions on Iran are multifaceted and U.S. sanctions on Iran are multifaceted and
complex, a result of over four decades of legislative, administrative, and law enforcement actions complex, a result of over four decades of legislative, administrative, and law enforcement actions
by successive presidential administrations and Congresses. by successive presidential administrations and Congresses.
U.S. sanctions on Iran were first imposed during the U.S.-Iran hostage crisis of 1979-1981, when
U.S. sanctions on Iran were first imposed during the U.S.-Iran hostage crisis of 1979-1981, when
President Jimmy Carter issued executive orders blocking nearly all Iranian assets held in the President Jimmy Carter issued executive orders blocking nearly all Iranian assets held in the
United States. In 1984, Secretary of State George Shultz designated the government of Iran a United States. In 1984, Secretary of State George Shultz designated the government of Iran a
state sponsor of acts of international terrorism (SSOT) following the October 1983 bombing of state sponsor of acts of international terrorism (SSOT) following the October 1983 bombing of
the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon by elements that later established Lebanese Hezbollah. the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon by elements that later established Lebanese Hezbollah.
Iran’s status as an SSOT triggers several sanctions including restrictions on licenses for U.S. dual-Iran’s status as an SSOT triggers several sanctions including restrictions on licenses for U.S. dual-
use exports; a ban on U.S. foreign assistance, arms sales, and support in the international financial use exports; a ban on U.S. foreign assistance, arms sales, and support in the international financial
institutions; and the withholding of U.S. foreign assistance to countries that assist or sell arms to institutions; and the withholding of U.S. foreign assistance to countries that assist or sell arms to
the designee.the designee.
150
Later in the 1980s and throughout the 1990s, other U.S. sanctions sought to limit Iran’s
Later in the 1980s and throughout the 1990s, other U.S. sanctions sought to limit Iran’s
conventional arsenal and its ability to project power throughout the Middle East. In the 2000s, as conventional arsenal and its ability to project power throughout the Middle East. In the 2000s, as
Iran’s nuclear program progressed, U.S. sanctions focused largely on trying to pressure Iran to Iran’s nuclear program progressed, U.S. sanctions focused largely on trying to pressure Iran to
limit its nuclear activities. Most of the U.S. sanctions enacted after 2010 were secondary limit its nuclear activities. Most of the U.S. sanctions enacted after 2010 were secondary
sanctions on foreign firms that conduct transactions with major sectors of the Iranian economy, sanctions on foreign firms that conduct transactions with major sectors of the Iranian economy,
including banking, energy, and shipping. Successive Administrations issued Executive Orders including banking, energy, and shipping. Successive Administrations issued Executive Orders
under which they designated specific individuals and entities to implement and supplement the under which they designated specific individuals and entities to implement and supplement the
144 U.S. Mission to International Organizations in Vienna, IAEA Board of Governors Meeting, U.S. Statement as Delivered by Ambassador Laura S.H. Holgate, June 6, 2023.
145 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of
2022, June 2023.
146provisions of these laws. The United States has also, pursuant to various authorities, imposed sanctions on scores of entities held responsible for human rights violations.
Impact of sanctions. U.S. sanctions imposed during 2011-2015, and since 2018, have taken a substantial toll on Iran’s economy. According to one assessment, economic outcomes in Iran “are determined primarily by the multiple negative consequences of sanctions.”157 Some analysts,
152 IAEA, “IAEA Director General’s statement on verification in Iran,” September 16, 2023. IAEA, “IAEA Director General’s statement on verification in Iran,” September 16, 2023.
147153 Francois Murphy, “Iran undoes slowdown in enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade–IAEA,” Reuters, Francois Murphy, “Iran undoes slowdown in enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade–IAEA,” Reuters,
December 26, 2023. December 26, 2023.
148 For more, see CRS In Focus IF12452, U.S. Sanctions on Iran, by Clayton Thomas. 149 For details on the legislative bases for sanctions imposed on Iran, see CRS Report R43311, Iran: U.S. Economic
Sanctions and the Authority to Lift Restrictions, by Dianne E. Rennack.
150 CRS Report R43835, State Sponsors of Acts of International Terrorism—Legislative Parameters: In Brief, by Dianne E. Rennack.
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provisions of these laws. The United States has also, pursuant to various authorities, imposed sanctions on scores of entities held responsible for human rights violations.
Impact of sanctions. U.S. sanctions imposed during 2011-2015, and since 2018, have taken a substantial toll on Iran’s economy. According to one assessment, economic outcomes in Iran “are determined primarily by the multiple negative consequences of sanctions.”151 Some analysts, 154 “Two visions for the future of the Central Command,” op. cit. 155 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, February 5, 2024. 156 For more, see CRS In Focus IF12452, U.S. Sanctions on Iran, by Clayton Thomas. 157 Country Forecast: Iran, Economist Intelligence Unit, August 2023.
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while agreeing that sanctions have an impact, also have argued that Iran suffers from “decades of while agreeing that sanctions have an impact, also have argued that Iran suffers from “decades of
failed economic policies.”failed economic policies.”
152158 A U.N. official, in a May 2022 visit to Iran, said that economic A U.N. official, in a May 2022 visit to Iran, said that economic
sanctions had increased inflation and poverty, exacerbating overall humanitarian conditions.sanctions had increased inflation and poverty, exacerbating overall humanitarian conditions.
153159
Sanctions appear to have had a mixed impact on the range of Iranian behaviors their imposition
Sanctions appear to have had a mixed impact on the range of Iranian behaviors their imposition
has been intended to curb. As mentioned above, some experts attribute Iran’s decision to enter has been intended to curb. As mentioned above, some experts attribute Iran’s decision to enter
into multilateral negotiations and agree to limits on its nuclear program under the JCPOA at least into multilateral negotiations and agree to limits on its nuclear program under the JCPOA at least
in part to sanctions pressure. Other aspects of Iranian policy seen as threatening to U.S. interests, in part to sanctions pressure. Other aspects of Iranian policy seen as threatening to U.S. interests,
including its regional influence and military capabilities, appear to remain considerable and have including its regional influence and military capabilities, appear to remain considerable and have
arguably increased in the last decade.arguably increased in the last decade.
154
Since the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018 and resulting economic pressure, Iran has decreased its compliance with the nuclear commitments of the JCPOA and conducted provocations in the Persian Gulf and in Iraq. Those nuclear advances and regional provocations continued as Iran and the United States engaged with other JCPOA signatories in indirect negotiations around reviving the JCPOA. The reimposition of U.S. sanctions after 2018 may also have contributed to Iran’s growing closeness to China (with which Iran signed a March 2021 agreement to deepen economic and security ties) 155 and Russia.156 President Raisi has also said that Iran’s prospective BRICS membership “will definitely play [a] part in fighting the US sanctions.”157 160 The reimposition of U.S. sanctions after 2018 may also have contributed to Iran’s growing closeness to Russia and China.
As part of its oversight responsibilities and to better inform legislative action, Congress has
As part of its oversight responsibilities and to better inform legislative action, Congress has
directed successive Administrations to provide reports on a wide array of Iran-related topics, directed successive Administrations to provide reports on a wide array of Iran-related topics,
including U.S. sanctions. In recent legislation, they include reports on the “status of United States including U.S. sanctions. In recent legislation, they include reports on the “status of United States
bilateral sanctions on Iran” (§7041(b)(2)(B) of bilateral sanctions on Iran” (§7041(b)(2)(B) of
FY2023FY2024 Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, Consolidated Appropriations Act,
P.L. 118-47P.L. 117-328) and the impact of sanctions on various Iranian entities and Iran-backed groups (§1227 ) and the impact of sanctions on various Iranian entities and Iran-backed groups (§1227
of the FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act, of the FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act,
NDAA, P.L. 117-81). Congress has also held P.L. 117-81). Congress has also held
numerous hearings focused primarily or in part on U.S. sanctions on Iran. numerous hearings focused primarily or in part on U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Oversight of Negotiations and Possible Nuclear Agreement
Congress has sought to influence the outcome and implementation of international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. In 2015, Congress enacted the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act
151 Country Forecast: Iran, Economist Intelligence Unit, August 2023. 152 Anthony Cordesman, “The Crisis in Iran: What Now?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 11, 2018.
153The Biden Administration has not issued any new sanctions authorities but has continued to designate for sanctions Iranian and third-country-based entities pursuant to existing U.S. laws and executive orders. Entities designated in 2023 and 2024 include individuals and companies involved in Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and ballistic missile programs; individuals involved in the production, sale, and shipment of Iranian oil to Asia; individuals involved in the crackdown on protesters and in other human rights abuses; senior IRGC officials involved in the wrongful detention of U.S. nationals in Iran; and individuals and companies facilitating the Iranian regime’s internet censorship.161 After Iran’s April 2024 attack on Israel, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced that the United States would “impose new sanctions targeting Iran” in conjunction with allies and partners, saying:
These new sanctions and other measures will continue a steady drumbeat of pressure to contain and degrade Iran’s military capacity and effectiveness and confront the full range of its problematic behaviors. Over the last three years, in addition to missile and drone-related sanctions, the United States has sanctioned over 600 individuals and entities connected to terrorism, terrorist financing and other forms of illicit trade, horrific human
158 Anthony Cordesman, “The Crisis in Iran: What Now?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 11, 2018.
159 Golnaz Esfandiari, “Visit to Iran by controversial UN rapporteur provokes concerns,” Golnaz Esfandiari, “Visit to Iran by controversial UN rapporteur provokes concerns,”
RFE/RL, May 13, 2022; Amir , May 13, 2022; Amir
Vahdat, “UN envoy: US sanctions on Iran worsen humanitarian situation,” Vahdat, “UN envoy: US sanctions on Iran worsen humanitarian situation,”
ABC News, May 18, 2022. , May 18, 2022.
154160 See, for example, “New report reveals extent of Iran’s growing Middle East influence,” See, for example, “New report reveals extent of Iran’s growing Middle East influence,”
Al Jazeera, November 7, , November 7,
2019; Ariane Tabatabai et al., “Iran’s Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts,” RAND Corporation, 2019; Ariane Tabatabai et al., “Iran’s Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts,” RAND Corporation,
2021; David Gardner, “Curbing Iran’s regional ambitions remains a distant hope for the west,” 2021; David Gardner, “Curbing Iran’s regional ambitions remains a distant hope for the west,”
Financial Times, June , June
10, 2021; Philip Loft, “Iran’s influence in the Middle East,” House of Commons Library (UK Parliament), March 23, 10, 2021; Philip Loft, “Iran’s influence in the Middle East,” House of Commons Library (UK Parliament), March 23,
2022. 2022.
155 “China, With $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast,” New York Times, March 27, 2021. 156 “Russia’s Lavrov in Iran to Discuss Nuclear Deal, Cooperation,” Reuters, June 22, 2022. 157 “Iran’s membership in BRICS, SCO to help overcome negative sanctions impact – Raisi,” TASS, August 29, 2023.
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(INARA, P.L. 114-17), which mandates congressional review of related agreements and provides for consideration of legislation to potentially block their implementation.158
Among other provisions, INARA directs the President to submit to Congress within five calendar days of reaching “an agreement with Iran relating to the nuclear program of Iran” that agreement and a certification that it meets certain conditions, such as that the agreement ensures that Iran will not be permitted to use its nuclear program for military purposes. It also provides Congress with a 30-day period following transmittal to review the agreement, during which the President may not waive or otherwise limit sanctions; if Congress enacts a resolution of disapproval during that period, the executive branch may not take any “action involving any measure of statutory sanctions relief.”
Indirect negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program (see above) may have implications for INARA-mandated congressional review provisions. The Biden Administration would likely be required to report any JCPOA amendments to Congress, triggering the congressional review process described above.159 Biden Administration officials have stated publicly that they are “committed to ensuring the requirements of INARA are fully satisfied” without engaging on the question of whether they would submit a hypothetical agreement for congressional review.160 These officials have also emphasized since September 2022 that U.S. policy has not been focused on reviving the JCPOA, given objectionable Iranian behaviors in other areas; Secretary Blinken said in July 2023 that “We’re now in a place where we’re not talking about a nuclear agreement.”161
The September 2023 prisoner exchange/fund transfer agreement focused some additional congressional attention on INARA. In August 2023, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and other representatives wrote to President Biden to express “significant concern” about the prospective agreement and to underscore the Administration’s obligations under INARA.162161 See U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control press releases “Treasury sanctions international procurement network supporting Iran’s missile and military programs,” June 6, 2023; “Treasury sanctions companies involved in production, sale, and shipment of Iranian petrochemicals and petroleum,” February 9, 2023; “Treasury sanctions senior Iranian officials overseeing violent protest suppression and censorship,” April 24, 2023; “Treasury sanctions officials of Iranian intelligence agency responsible for detention of U.S. nationals in Iran,” April 27, 2023; “Treasury sanctions Iranian company aiding in internet censorship,” June 2, 2023.
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rights abuses, and support for proxy terrorist groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Kataib Hezbollah. The pressure will continue.162
Action in the 118th Congress. Legislation in the 118th Congress has targeted a number of Iranian government behaviors, including its crackdown on popular protests, its continued oil exports, and its support for terrorist groups across the Middle East. Dozens of measures related to Iran sanctions have been introduced in the 118th Congress; bills agreed to in the House include:
• H.R. 589 (the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability, or
MAHSA, Act), which the House agreed to 410-3 on September 12, 2023. This bill would, among other provisions, direct the Administration to review whether specified Iranian entities meet the criteria for designation under certain existing sanctions authorities.
• H.R. 3152 (the Fight and Combat Rampant Iranian Missile Exports, or Fight
CRIME, Act), which the House agreed to 403-8 on September 12, 2023. This bill would, among other provisions, direct the President to impose sanctions on persons the President determines engage in efforts to transfer missile-related technology to or from Iran.
• H.R. 3774 (the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum, or SHIP, Act), which the
House agreed to 342-69 on November 3, 2023. This bill would, among other provisions, direct the President to impose sanctions on person the President determines have engaged in certain transactions related to Iranian petroleum exports.
• H.R. 5923 (the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act of 2023), which the House
agreed to 383-11 on April 15, 2024. This bill would amend the FY2012 NDAA to clarify that potentially sanctionable “significant financial transactions” related to Iranian petroleum include those carried out by Chinese financial institutions.
• Those and several other Iran-related measures were included in H.R. 8038, which
the House agreed to 360-58 on April 20, 2024, alongside several foreign assistance bills.
Outlook
While the challenges posed by the Iranian government’s nuclear program, its human rights While the challenges posed by the Iranian government’s nuclear program, its human rights
abuses, and its growing ties with China and Russia remain, the regional turmoil unleashed by the abuses, and its growing ties with China and Russia remain, the regional turmoil unleashed by the
October 2023 Hamas-led assault on Israel October 2023 Hamas-led assault on Israel
ishas been the foremost issue affecting U.S. policy toward Iran the foremost issue affecting U.S. policy toward Iran
in early 2024. in 2024. Clashes between Iran-backed groups Iran-backed groups
and U.S. forces across the Middle East across the Middle East
have caused casualties (including some U.S. service members), disrupted regional economies, and stoked fears of a wider conflict, fears that rose in the wake of direct Iran-Israel clashes in April 2024have clashed with U.S. and U.S. partner forces across the region. U.S. retaliatory strikes have at times targeted Iranian personnel but have not extended to Iranian territory, which could trigger the direct military confrontation both sides say they seek to avoid. .
These dynamics pose a complex challenge for U.S. policymakers and Congress, which has long
These dynamics pose a complex challenge for U.S. policymakers and Congress, which has long
played an active role in shaping and overseeing U.S. policy toward Iran. The Biden played an active role in shaping and overseeing U.S. policy toward Iran. The Biden
Administration appears to remain focused on preventing the regionalization of the Administration appears to remain focused on preventing the regionalization of the
Israel-Hamas conflict while conflict while
stating that the United States will respond when its interests are threatened stating that the United States will respond when its interests are threatened
(pointing to military action in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and its role in defending against Iran’s April 2024 attack on Israel). Some Members of Congress have called for more U.S. military
162 White House, “Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on holding Iran accountable for unprecedented attack on Israel,” April 16, 2024.
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action, including direct attacks against Iran.163 Others have echoed Biden Administration calls for restrain and de-escalation(pointing to military
158 For a legislative history of INARA, and the several votes taken in Congress that demonstrated opposition to the JCPOA but failed to block its implementation, see CRS Report R46796, Congress and the Middle East, 2011-2020:
Selected Case Studies, coordinated by Christopher M. Blanchard.
159 CRS Report R46663, Possible U.S. Return to Iran Nuclear Agreement: Frequently Asked Questions. 160 State Department Press Briefing, March 16, 2022. 161 “US envoy reiterates nuclear talks with Iran not a priority,” Iran International, December 4, 2022; U.S. Department of State, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Fareed Zakaria of GPS,” CNN, July 23, 2023.
162 Letter available at https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/8.21.23-Scalise-Stefanik-McCaul-letter-to-President-Biden-re.-Iran-Deal50-1.pdf.
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action in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen). Some Members of Congress have called for more U.S. military action, including direct attacks against Iran.163 Others have expressed concern over the constitutionality and escalatory potential of U.S. strikes on Iran-backed groups like the Houthis.164 Successive appropriations acts since FY2020 have included provisions stating that .164 Successive appropriations acts since FY2020 have included provisions stating that
they may not be construed as authorizing the use of force against Iran.165
More broadly, to counter Iran’s strategic clout, the United States has sought to marshal regional opposition to Iran and isolate Iran on the world stage. Despite some successes on both fronts, Iran remains diplomatically engaged with many of its neighbors, including some U.S. partners, and the lack of U.S. relations with Tehran precludes direct U.S. involvement in those diplomatic engagements.
Beyond the limitations of existing U.S. policy tools, a number of other factors may influence congressional views of, and action toward, U.S. policies regarding Iran, including
• A lack of detailed, current information about dynamics within Iran due to Iranian
government-imposed media restrictions, the absence of U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations, and other factors. Additionally, no Members of Congress or congressional staff appear to have visited Iran since 1979.166
• The historical legacy of animosity between the United States and Iran,
particularly the U.S. embassy hostage crisis of 1979-1981 and subsequent Iranian government support for terrorism and attacks on U.S. military personnel in the Middle East.
• The large, diverse, and politically active Iranian diaspora community.
they may not be construed as authorizing the use of force against Iran.165
In seeking to understand Iran and to shape U.S. policy, potential questions that Members of In seeking to understand Iran and to shape U.S. policy, potential questions that Members of
Congress may consider includeCongress may consider include
:
• What are the ultimate goals of U.S. policy toward Iran? What U.S. policy
• What are the ultimate goals of U.S. policy toward Iran? What U.S. policy
approaches have been most and least successful in moving toward those goals?
approaches have been most and least successful in moving toward those goals?
• What are
• What are
Iranthe Iranian government’s regional aims’s regional aims
, and what do they need and how does it seek to achieve to achieve
them? What them? What
additional assets/capabilities do U.S. partners need to counter Iran? What are the additional assets/capabilities do U.S. partners need to counter Iran? What are the
implications of diplomatic engagement and economic ties between Iran and U.S. implications of diplomatic engagement and economic ties between Iran and U.S.
regional partners for U.S. interests?
• How secure is the position of Supreme Leader Khamenei? Who might succeed
him? What other factions or power centers exist within the Iranian political system and how might they influence leadership succession and future regime policy?
• To what extent did protests in fall 2022 and early 2023 represent a threat to
regime stability? What, if anything, can the United States do to promote democracy without endangering its supporters in Iran?
• Why has Iran provided Russia with weaponry for use in Ukraine and how has
their partnership impacted Iran and its other bilateral relationships? What drives
163 See, for example, Barak Ravid, “GOP contenders cast Biden as too weak on Iran,” Axios, November 8, 2023; “US senator calls for bombing IRGC positions inside Iran,” Iran International, December 28, 2023. 164 See, for example, Chad de Guzman, “How Congress is reacting to Biden’s military attack on the Houthis in Yemen,” Time, January 12, 2024. 165 Section 8133 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (P.L. 117-328). 166 Some Members of Congress have visited other countries without a U.S. embassy such as Syria (in 2017), Cuba (in 2009), and North Korea (in 2003).
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• the deepening Iran-Russia relationship and should the United States and its
partners seek to impede it?
• Why has Iran increased its nuclear activities and what is the ultimate purpose of
the program? What additional steps would Iran need to obtain a nuclear weapon and how can the United States and partners prevent that? What might be the implications of Iran’s obtaining a nuclear weapon for Iran’s broader foreign policy, regional stability, and other U.S. interests?
• What was the impact of the JCPOA on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran’s regional
activities, domestic politics in Iran, and U.S.-Iran relations overall? What was the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA?
• What are the arguments for and against attempting to rejoin the JCPOA? Given
changes on both sides since 2015, is reviving the accord feasible? What alternative arrangements, if any, might meet the U.S. goal of securing limits on Iran’s nuclear activities?
• What are the implications for the United States of Iran’s prospective membership
in the BRICS group?
• What are the dynamics between Iran and the various terrorist groups that it
supports? To what extent, if any, does it exercise command and control? regional partners for U.S. interests?
• To what extent does Iran’s April 2024 attack on Israel represent a fundamental
shift in Iran’s tactical and/or strategic approach toward Israel specifically and in the region more broadly? What was the attack intended to achieve? How can the United States and its partners deter and combat future attacks?
• Why has Iran increased its nuclear activities and what is the ultimate purpose of
the program? What additional steps would Iran need to obtain a nuclear weapon and how can the United States and partners prevent that? What might be the implications of Iran’s obtaining a nuclear weapon for Iran’s broader foreign policy, regional stability, and other U.S. interests?
Author Information
Clayton Thomas Clayton Thomas
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
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163 See, for example, “US senator calls for bombing IRGC positions inside Iran,” Iran International, December 28, 2023; Filip Timotija, “GOP senator calls for US retaliatory strikes on Iran,” The Hill, April 13, 2024.
164 See, for example, Senator Tom Caper, Statement on Iran’s unprecedented attack against Israel, April 14, 2024. 165 Section 8133 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (P.L. 117-328).
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