Turkey (Türkiye): Major Issues and U.S. Relations

Changes from January 9, 2023 to January 18, 2023

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Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S.
January January 918, 2023 , 2023
Relations In Brief
Jim Zanotti
U.S. relations with Turkey (Türkiye) take place within a complicated geopolitical environment U.S. relations with Turkey (Türkiye) take place within a complicated geopolitical environment
Specialist in Middle Specialist in Middle
and with Turkey in economic distress. U.S.-Turkey tensions that worsened after a failed 2016 and with Turkey in economic distress. U.S.-Turkey tensions that worsened after a failed 2016
Eastern Affairs Eastern Affairs
coup in Turkey—including ongoing disagreements over Syrian Kurds and Turkey’s 2019 coup in Turkey—including ongoing disagreements over Syrian Kurds and Turkey’s 2019

procurement of a Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system— procurement of a Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—~~have raised questions~~highlight uncertainties about the about the
Clayton Thomas
future of bilateral relations. Congressional actions have included sanctions legislation and future of bilateral relations. Congressional actions have included sanctions legislation and
Specialist in Middle Specialist in Middle
informal holds on U.S. arms sales. Nevertheless, U.S. and Turkish officials emphasize the informal holds on U.S. arms sales. Nevertheless, U.S. and Turkish officials emphasize the
Eastern Affairs Eastern Affairs
importance of continued cooperation and Turkey’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty importance of continued cooperation and Turkey’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty

Organization (NATO). Observers voice concerns about the largely authoritarian rule of Turkish Organization (NATO). Observers voice concerns about the largely authoritarian rule of Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Major inflation and a sharp decline in Turkey’s currencyPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Major inflation and a sharp decline in Turkey’s currency—

~~perhaps partly due to Erdogan’s unorthodox policy of keeping interest rates relatively low—have~~
have led to speculation that Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) might be vulnerable to a led to speculation that Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) might be vulnerable to a
coalition of opposition parties in presidential and parliamentary elections planned for June 2023 if competitive elections coalition of opposition parties in presidential and parliamentary elections planned for June 2023 if competitive elections
occur. If a different Turkish president were to win 2023 elections and take power, some domestic and foreign policy changes occur. If a different Turkish president were to win 2023 elections and take power, some domestic and foreign policy changes
could be possible. could be possible.
U.S. relations and F-16s. Under President Joe Biden, Under President Joe Biden, ~~some~~ existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside cooperation on other foreign policy existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside cooperation on other foreign policy
matters. While deepening ties with Russia matters. While deepening ties with Russia ~~in certain areas~~ remain a cause for U.S. concern, Turkey’s emergence as remain a cause for U.S. concern, Turkey’s emergence as an
~~important~~ a mediator between Russia and Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion has arguably increased Turkey’s importance for mediator between Russia and Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion has arguably increased Turkey’s importance for
U.S. policy. U.S.-Turkey relations have improved somewhat due to Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s defense; U.S. policy. U.S.-Turkey relations have improved somewhat due to Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s defense;
growing relationships with other countries that seek to counter Russian regional power (including via the export of drone growing relationships with other countries that seek to counter Russian regional power (including via the export of drone
aircraft); and openness to rapprochement with Israel, some Arab states, and Armenia. President Biden has voiced support for aircraft); and openness to rapprochement with Israel, some Arab states, and Armenia. President Biden has voiced support for
sales that would upgrade Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet, but some Members of Congress have expressed opposition. sales that would upgrade Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet, but some Members of Congress have expressed opposition.
According to media accounts, the Administration reportedly provided informal notification to Congress in January 2023 of possible sales of F-16s to Turkey, plus associated equipment and munitions. Factors potentially influencing congressional deliberations include Turkey’s tense relations with Greece and its stance on Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO accession. Congressional and executive branch action regarding Turkey and its rivals could have implications for bilateral tiesCongressional and executive branch action regarding Turkey and its rivals could have implications for bilateral ties, and U.S. U.S.
political-military options in the region, and Turkey’s strategic orientationpolitical-military options in the region, and Turkey’s strategic orientation ~~and financial well-being~~. The following are key . The following are key
factors in the U.S.-Turkey relationship. factors in the U.S.-Turkey relationship.
Turkey’s foreign policy ~~orientation~~approach. For decades, Turkey has relied closely on the United States and NATO for defense For decades, Turkey has relied closely on the United States and NATO for defense
cooperation, European countries for trade and investment, and Russia and Iran for energy imports. Turkish leaders have cooperation, European countries for trade and investment, and Russia and Iran for energy imports. Turkish leaders have
indicated an interest in reducing their dependence on the West, and that may partly explain their willingness to coordinate indicated an interest in reducing their dependence on the West, and that may partly explain their willingness to coordinate
some actions with Russia. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with Russia in Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and some actions with Russia. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with Russia in Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and
Armenia-Azerbaijan. Armenia-Azerbaijan.
Major issues: Russia, Sweden-Finland-NATO, and Greece and Cyprus. In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of
Ukraine, Turkey faces challenges in balancing its relations with the two countries and managing Black Sea access, with Ukraine, Turkey faces challenges in balancing its relations with the two countries and managing Black Sea access, with
implications for U.S.-Turkey ties. To some extent, Erdogan has sought to reinforce Turkey’s embattled economy by implications for U.S.-Turkey ties. To some extent, Erdogan has sought to reinforce Turkey’s embattled economy by
deepening economic and energy ties with Russia. Erdogan might assess that Western sanctions against Russia give Turkey deepening economic and energy ties with Russia. Erdogan might assess that Western sanctions against Russia give Turkey
increased leverage in these dealings. At the same time, Turkey has expanded defense cooperation with Ukraine. Turkey has increased leverage in these dealings. At the same time, Turkey has expanded defense cooperation with Ukraine. Turkey has
become an important mediator between Russia and Ukraine on brokering a grain export corridor and other issues. In June, become an important mediator between Russia and Ukraine on brokering a grain export corridor and other issues. In June,
Turkey agreed on a framework deal for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, but Turkey has delayed ratifying their accession Turkey agreed on a framework deal for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, but Turkey has delayed ratifying their accession
while demanding that the two countries help Turkey act against people it considers to be terrorists. Longstanding disputes while demanding that the two countries help Turkey act against people it considers to be terrorists. Longstanding disputes
between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean seas between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean seas ~~have~~ spiked in 2022 amid spiked in 2022 amid
greater U.S. strategic cooperation with Greece. greater U.S. strategic cooperation with Greece.
Syria: ongoing conflict near borders. Turkish concerns regarding its southern border with Syria has deepened further Turkish concerns regarding its southern border with Syria has deepened further
during Syria’s civil war, due largely to (1) the flow of nearly four million refugees into Turkey, (2) U.S. efforts to counter the during Syria’s civil war, due largely to (1) the flow of nearly four million refugees into Turkey, (2) U.S. efforts to counter the
Islamic State by working with Syrian Kurds linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-Islamic State by working with Syrian Kurds linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-
designated terrorist organization), and (3) the presence of Russian, American, and Iranian forces in Syria that complicate and designated terrorist organization), and (3) the presence of Russian, American, and Iranian forces in Syria that complicate and
somewhat constrain Turkish action. Turkey and allied Syrian armed opposition groups have occupied various areas of somewhat constrain Turkish action. Turkey and allied Syrian armed opposition groups have occupied various areas of
northern Syria since 2016, and Turkey’s military continues to target Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq. Turkey’s military northern Syria since 2016, and Turkey’s military continues to target Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq. Turkey’s military
could undertake another ground operation against the PKK-linked Syrian Kurds, despite reported U.S. and Russian could undertake another ground operation against the PKK-linked Syrian Kurds, despite reported U.S. and Russian
expressions of concern.expressions of concern.
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Introduction and Key U.S.-Turkey Considerations
This report provides background information and analysis on key issues affecting U.S.-Turkey This report provides background information and analysis on key issues affecting U.S.-Turkey
(Türkiye)1 relations, including domestic Turkish developments and various foreign policy and (Türkiye)1 relations, including domestic Turkish developments and various foreign policy and
defense matters. U.S. and Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on regional security defense matters. U.S. and Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on regional security
matters remains mutually important,2 despite Turkey’s S-400 purchase from Russia and a number matters remains mutually important,2 despite Turkey’s S-400 purchase from Russia and a number
of other differences between them (such as in Syria and with Greece and Cyprus). of other differences between them (such as in Syria and with Greece and Cyprus).
Under President Joe Biden, some existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside Under President Joe Biden, some existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside
cooperation on other matters and opportunities to improve bilateral ties. cooperation on other matters and opportunities to improve bilateral ties. ~~He has limited his~~
~~meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the sidelines of multilateral~~
~~conferences. This approach may reflect a U.S. and European inclination to keep Turkey at arms’~~
~~length until after Turkey’s 2023 elections.3~~ While continued or deepening ties with Russia in While continued or deepening ties with Russia in
certain areas remain a cause for concern for the Biden Administration and some Members of certain areas remain a cause for concern for the Biden Administration and some Members of
Congress, Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s defense and openness to rapprochement with Congress, Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s defense and openness to rapprochement with
Israel, some Arab states, and Armenia have somewhat improved U.S.-Turkey relations.Israel, some Arab states, and Armenia have somewhat improved U.S.-Turkey relations.43 President President
Biden has expressed support for selling F-16s to Biden has expressed support for selling F-16s to ~~Turkey~~Turkey, and in January 2023 the Administration reportedly informally notified Congress of a potential F-16 sale, plus associated equipment and munitions (see (see “Possible F-16 Sales and
Congressional Views” below). below).
Members of Congress may consider legislative and oversight options regarding Turkey. Members of Congress may consider legislative and oversight options regarding Turkey.
Congressional and executive branch action regarding Turkey and its rivals could have Congressional and executive branch action regarding Turkey and its rivals could have
implications for bilateral ties, U.S. political-military options in the region, and Turkey’s implications for bilateral ties, U.S. political-military options in the region, and Turkey’s ~~strategic~~
foreign policy orientation and financial well-being. orientation and financial well-being.
For additional information, see CRS Report R41368, For additional information, see CRS Report R41368, Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations, by , by
Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. See Figure A-1 for a map and key facts and figures about for a map and key facts and figures about
Turkey. Turkey.
Domestic Issues
Political Developments Under Erdogan’s Rule
President Erdogan has ruled Turkey since becoming prime minister in 2003, and has steadily President Erdogan has ruled Turkey since becoming prime minister in 2003, and has steadily
deepened his control over the country’s populace and institutions. After Erdogan became deepened his control over the country’s populace and institutions. After Erdogan became
president in August 2014 via Turkey’s first-ever popular presidential election, he claimed a president in August 2014 via Turkey’s first-ever popular presidential election, he claimed a
mandate for increasing his power and pursuing a presidential system of governance, which he cemented in a 2017 referendum and 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some
1 In late 2021, President Erdogan directed the use of “Türkiye” (the country’s name in Turkish) in place of “Turkey” or 1 In late 2021, President Erdogan directed the use of “Türkiye” (the country’s name in Turkish) in place of “Turkey” or
other equivalents (e.g., the German “Türkei,” the French “Turquie”) in Turkish government documents and other equivalents (e.g., the German “Türkei,” the French “Turquie”) in Turkish government documents and
communications. In June 2022, the United Nations accepted the Turkish request to change the country’s name at the communications. In June 2022, the United Nations accepted the Turkish request to change the country’s name at the
body to “Türkiye.” In January 2023, the State Department spokesperson said that the department would use the revised body to “Türkiye.” In January 2023, the State Department spokesperson said that the department would use the revised
spelling “in most formal diplomatic and bilateral contexts” where appropriate. The Board on Geographic Names spelling “in most formal diplomatic and bilateral contexts” where appropriate. The Board on Geographic Names
retained both “Turkey” and “Republic of Turkey” as conventional names, and the spokesperson said that the State retained both “Turkey” and “Republic of Turkey” as conventional names, and the spokesperson said that the State
Department could use those names if it is in furtherance of broader public understanding. State Department Press Department could use those names if it is in furtherance of broader public understanding. State Department Press
Briefing, January 5, 2023. Briefing, January 5, 2023.
2 State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,” 2 State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,”
May 18, 2022. May 18, 2022.
3 3 ~~Sinem Adar, “Perceptions in Turkey about the War in Ukraine,” SWP Comment (German Institute for International~~
~~and Security Affairs [SWP]), April 6, 2022.~~
4 Alper Coskun, “Making the New U.S.-Turkey Strategic Mechanism Meaningful,” Carnegie Endowment for Alper Coskun, “Making the New U.S.-Turkey Strategic Mechanism Meaningful,” Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, May 12, 2022; Kali Robinson, “Turkey’s Growing Foreign Policy Ambitions,” Council on Foreign International Peace, May 12, 2022; Kali Robinson, “Turkey’s Growing Foreign Policy Ambitions,” Council on Foreign
Relations, August 24, 2022. Relations, August 24, 2022.
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Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

~~mandate for increasing his power and pursuing a presidential system of governance, which he~~
~~cemented in a 2017 referendum and 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some~~
allegations of voter fraud and manipulation surfaced after the referendum and the elections.allegations of voter fraud and manipulation surfaced after the referendum and the elections.54
Since a failed July 2016 coup attempt by elements within the military, Erdogan and his Islamist-Since a failed July 2016 coup attempt by elements within the military, Erdogan and his Islamist-
leaning Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) have adopted more nationalistic leaning Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) have adopted more nationalistic
domestic and foreign policy approaches, perhaps partly because of their reliance on parliamentary domestic and foreign policy approaches, perhaps partly because of their reliance on parliamentary
support from the Nationalist Action Party (Turkish acronym MHP). support from the Nationalist Action Party (Turkish acronym MHP).
Many observers describe Erdogan as a polarizing figure, and elections have reflected roughly Many observers describe Erdogan as a polarizing figure, and elections have reflected roughly
equal portions of the country supporting and opposing his rule.equal portions of the country supporting and opposing his rule.65 The AKP won the largest share of The AKP won the largest share of
votes in 2019 local elections, but lost some key municipalities, including Istanbul, to candidates votes in 2019 local elections, but lost some key municipalities, including Istanbul, to candidates
from the secular-leaning Republican People’s Party (Turkish acronym CHP). from the secular-leaning Republican People’s Party (Turkish acronym CHP).
U.S. and European Union (EU) officials have expressed a number of concerns about authoritarian U.S. and European Union (EU) officials have expressed a number of concerns about authoritarian
governance and erosion of rule of law and civil liberties in Turkey.governance and erosion of rule of law and civil liberties in Turkey.~~7 In response to the 2016 coup~~
~~attempt, the government detained tens of thousands of its citizens, enacted sweeping changes to~~
~~military and civilian agencies, and took over or closed various businesses, schools, and media~~
~~outlets.8 Erdogan has argued, with considerable popular support, that the Fethullah Gulen~~
~~movement orchestrated the coup attempt, in which more than 250 people were killed and~~
~~thousands were injured.9 Forces and citizen groups loyal to the government ultimately thwarted~~
~~the apparent efforts of some renegade military personnel (which included airstrikes targeting~~
~~Turkey’s presidential palace and parliament building) to seize state control. Some leading~~
~~opposition figures in Turkey have accused Erdogan of planning, controlling, and/or using the~~
~~failed coup to suppress dissent and consolidate power.10~~
~~Meanwhile, Turkish authorities have continued their on-and-off efforts to counter militants from~~
~~the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization).~~
~~These efforts include Turkish military operations targeting PKK and PKK-aligned personnel in~~
~~Iraq and Syria.11~~

56 Some leading opposition figures in Turkey have accused Erdogan of planning, controlling, and/or using the failed coup to suppress dissent and consolidate power.7 Meanwhile, Turkish authorities have continued their on-and-off efforts to counter militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization). These efforts include Turkish military operations targeting PKK and PKK-aligned personnel in Iraq and Syria.8 Major Economic Challenges Ongoing economic problems in Turkey considerably worsened in 2022 as its currency, the lira, depreciated in value around 28% against the U.S. dollar, after declining by nearly 45% in 2021. Official annual inflation climbed to nearly 85% for October—a level not seen in Turkey since the 1990s—before dropping to 64% in December.9 Some unofficial estimates have suggested that actual inflation may be well over 100%.10 Many analysts link the spike in inflation to the Turkish central bank’s repeated reductions of its key interest rate since September 2021, with additional inflationary pressure possibly coming from external events such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and interest rate hikes in the United States and other major economies.11 The lira has been trending 4 Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Limited Referendum Observation Mission Final Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Limited Referendum Observation Mission Final
Report, Turkey, April 16, 2017 (published June 22, 2017); OSCE, International Election Observation Mission, Report, Turkey, April 16, 2017 (published June 22, 2017); OSCE, International Election Observation Mission,
Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions, Turkey, Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, June 24, Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions, Turkey, Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, June 24,
2018 (published June 25, 2018). 2018 (published June 25, 2018).
65 Kemal Kirisci and Berk Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two Kemal Kirisci and Berk Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two
Decades in Power?” Decades in Power?” Just Security, November 22, 2021. , November 22, 2021.
76 State Department, State Department, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2021, Turkey; Turkey; European Commission, , Turkey; Turkey; European Commission,
Turkiye 2022 Report, October 6, 2022. , October 6, 2022.
~~8 Ibid.; European Commission, Turkey 2021 Report, October 19, 2021.~~
97 Gareth Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15: Erdogan’s New Turkey and the Myth of Its Immaculate Conception,” Gareth Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15: Erdogan’s New Turkey and the Myth of Its Immaculate Conception,”
Turkey Analyst, July 15, 2021, July 15, 2021~~; Dorian Jones, “Turkey Looks Back at Failed Coup,” Voice of America, July 15, 2019.~~
~~Partly because of Gulen’s residence in the United States, many Turks reportedly subscribe to conspiracy theories about~~
~~possible U.S. involvement. Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15.” For more information on Gulen, see CRS In Focus~~
~~IF10444, Fethullah Gulen, Turkey, and the United States: A Reference, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.~~
~~10 Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15”~~; “Turkey coup: Top officers given life terms in mass trial,” ; “Turkey coup: Top officers given life terms in mass trial,” BBC News, April 7, , April 7,
2021. 2021.
118 Berkay Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux,” International Crisis Group, February Berkay Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux,” International Crisis Group, February
18, 2022. 18, 2022.
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~~Major Economic Challenges~~
~~Ongoing economic problems in Turkey considerably worsened in 2022 as its currency, the lira,~~
~~depreciated in value around 28% against the U.S. dollar, after declining by nearly 45% in 2021.~~
~~Official annual inflation climbed to nearly 85% for October—a level not seen in Turkey since the~~
~~1990s.12 Some unofficial estimates have suggested that actual inflation may be well over 100%.13~~
~~Many analysts link the spike in inflation to the Turkish central bank’s repeated reductions of its~~
~~key interest rate since September 2021, with additional inflationary pressure possibly coming~~
~~from external events such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and interest rate hikes in the United States~~
~~and other major economies.14 The lira has been trending~~ 9 Nektaria Stamouli, “Turkey’s inflation drops sharply in boost for Erdoğan,” Politico, January 3, 2023; Beril Akman, “Turkey slashes interest rate in line with Erdogan’s demand,” Bloomberg, November 24, 2022; “Yearly inflation in Turkey rises to new 24-year high of 85%,” Associated Press, November 3, 2022 10 Mustafa Sonmez, “Turkish inflation hits 85.5% as doubts linger over official data,” Al-Monitor, November 3, 2022. 11 Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Rewrites All Inflation Forecasts but Won’t Budge on Rates,” Bloomberg, April 28, 2022. Congressional Research Service 2 link to page 13 link to page 24 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief downward for more than a decade, with downward for more than a decade, with
its decline probably driven in part by broader concerns about Turkey’s rule of law and economy.its decline probably driven in part by broader concerns about Turkey’s rule of law and economy.1512
Throughout this time, President Erdogan has assertively challenged the conventional economic Throughout this time, President Erdogan has assertively challenged the conventional economic
theory that higher interest rates stem inflation, attract foreign capital, and support the value of the theory that higher interest rates stem inflation, attract foreign capital, and support the value of the
currency. In replacing Turkey’s central bank governor and finance minister in 2021, Erdogan currency. In replacing Turkey’s central bank governor and finance minister in 2021, Erdogan
established greater control over Turkish fiscal and monetary policy. In public statements, Erdogan established greater control over Turkish fiscal and monetary policy. In public statements, Erdogan
has argued that lower interest rates boost production, employment, and exports.has argued that lower interest rates boost production, employment, and exports.1613 Erdogan also Erdogan also
has criticized high interest rates as contrary to Islamic teachings and as exacerbating the gap has criticized high interest rates as contrary to Islamic teachings and as exacerbating the gap
between rich and poor.between rich and poor.1714
The currency and inflation crisis in Turkey has dramatically affected consumers’ cost of living The currency and inflation crisis in Turkey has dramatically affected consumers’ cost of living
and the cost of international borrowing (mostly conducted in U.S. dollars) for banks and private and the cost of international borrowing (mostly conducted in U.S. dollars) for banks and private
sector companies. The government has sought to stop or reverse inflation by providing tax cuts, sector companies. The government has sought to stop or reverse inflation by providing tax cuts,
minimum wage increases, and subsidies for basic expenses, along with borrowing incentives for minimum wage increases, and subsidies for basic expenses, along with borrowing incentives for
banks that hold liras.banks that hold liras.1815 Turkey also has sought currency swaps from some Arab Gulf states, and Turkey also has sought currency swaps from some Arab Gulf states, and
has benefitted from Russian-origin inflows that contribute to U.S. warnings about potential has benefitted from Russian-origin inflows that contribute to U.S. warnings about potential
sanctions evasion (see sanctions evasion (see “Turkey-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation” below). below).1916 He has He has
publicly rejected calls to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a financial assistance publicly rejected calls to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a financial assistance
package. package.
2023 Elections
Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are planned Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are planned ~~for June 2023. Largely in the~~
~~context of Turkey’s economic problems discussed above, public opinion polls have fueled~~

~~12 Beril Akman, “Turkey slashes interest rate in line with Erdogan’s demand,” Bloomberg, November 24, 2022;~~
~~“Yearly inflation in Turkey rises to new 24-year high of 85%,” Associated Press, November 3, 2022.~~
~~13 Mustafa Sonmez, “Turkish inflation hits 85.5% as doubts linger over official data,” Al-Monitor, November 3, 2022.~~
~~14 Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Rewrites All Inflation Forecasts but Won’t Budge on Rates,” Bloomberg, April~~
~~28, 2022.~~
15to take place by June 2023, but probably will happen in May. Erdogan or Turkey’s parliament can change the elections to an earlier date.17 In January 2023, Erdogan signaled that elections would likely take place on May 14, 2023.18 If no presidential candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a presidential run-off election between the top two vote-getting candidates would take place two weeks later. Largely in the context of Turkey’s economic problems discussed above, public opinion polls have fueled speculation that Erdogan and the AKP-MHP parliamentary coalition might be vulnerable to a coalition of opposition parties including the CHP, the Iyi (Good) Party, and the Democracy and Progress Party (Turkish acronym DEVA) (see Figure A-2).19 Some observers have debated 12 Mikolaj Rogalewicz, “Economic crisis in Turkey,” Mikolaj Rogalewicz, “Economic crisis in Turkey,” Warsaw Institute Review, April 25, 2022. , April 25, 2022.
1613 “EXPLAINER: Turkey’s Currency Is Crashing. What’s the Impact?” “EXPLAINER: Turkey’s Currency Is Crashing. What’s the Impact?” Associated Press, December 3, 2021; Carlotta , December 3, 2021; Carlotta
Gall, “Keeping His Own Counsel on Turkey’s Economy,” Gall, “Keeping His Own Counsel on Turkey’s Economy,” New York Times, December 11, 2021. , December 11, 2021.
1714 “Turkey will keep lowering interest rates: Erdogan,” “Turkey will keep lowering interest rates: Erdogan,” Daily Sabah, June 6, 2022; Mustafa Akyol, “How Erdogan’s , June 6, 2022; Mustafa Akyol, “How Erdogan’s
Pseudoscience Is Ruining the Turkish Economy,” Cato Institute, December 3, 2021. Pseudoscience Is Ruining the Turkish Economy,” Cato Institute, December 3, 2021.
1815 Ben Hubbard, “Skyrocketing Prices in Turkey Hurt Families and Tarnish Erdogan,” Ben Hubbard, “Skyrocketing Prices in Turkey Hurt Families and Tarnish Erdogan,” New York Times, December 5, , December 5,
2022; Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Rewrites All Inflation Forecasts,” 2022; Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Rewrites All Inflation Forecasts,” Bloomberg, April 28, 2022. , April 28, 2022.
1916 Laura Pitel “Turkey finance minister defends economic links with Russia,” Laura Pitel “Turkey finance minister defends economic links with Russia,” Financial Times, October 25, 2022; , October 25, 2022;
Murat Kubilay, “As liquidity problems worsen, Turkey turns to capital controls and informal FX flows,” Middle East Murat Kubilay, “As liquidity problems worsen, Turkey turns to capital controls and informal FX flows,” Middle East
Institute, November 7, 2022. Institute, November 7, 2022.
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~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

~~speculation that Erdogan and the AKP-MHP parliamentary coalition might be vulnerable.20 In one~~
~~late 2022 poll (see Figure 1), three parties from an opposition coalition (CHP-Iyi-DEVA)~~
~~outperformed AKP-MHP by a 36%-32% margin. In the same poll, Erdogan’s approval rating was~~
~~38%, the percentage who said things in Turkey were headed in the wrong direction was 59%, and~~
~~the percentage who said the economy was the most important issue was 67%.21~~
~~Figure 1. Turkish Political Party Preferences~~
~~(as of late 2022)~~

~~How Kurdish citizens of Turkey (numbering nearly 20% of the population) vote could impact the~~
~~outcome.22 Additionally, some observers debate~~ 17 Erdogan may seek to have Turkey’s parliament (by a three-fifths vote) schedule early elections, because Turkey’s constitution requires that a president can only seek a third term if parliament (rather than the president) moves up the election date. Some Erdogan supporters argue that Erdogan’s next term would be his second under Turkey’s constitution because his first term (which was not a full five years) came before the current constitutional amendments regarding the presidency became effective in 2018. “Can Recep Tayyip Erdoğan run for a third term as president?” James in Turkey, last updated December 19, 2022. 18 “President Erdoğan hints at May 14 for general elections,” Hurriyet Daily News, January 18, 2023. 19 Hubbard, “Skyrocketing Prices in Turkey Hurt Families and Tarnish Erdogan”; “Polls indicate close race between Congressional Research Service 3 link to page 10 link to page 10 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief whether (1) free and fair elections could take whether (1) free and fair elections could take
place under Erdogan,place under Erdogan,2320 (2) opposition parties can convince potential swing voters to side with (2) opposition parties can convince potential swing voters to side with
them despite their personal or ideological affinity for Erdogan,them despite their personal or ideological affinity for Erdogan,2421 or (3) Erdogan would cede or (3) Erdogan would cede
power after an electoral defeat.power after an electoral defeat.25
22 The CHP and some other opposition parties have agreed on some steps toward a joint platform The CHP and some other opposition parties have agreed on some steps toward a joint platform
focused on returning Turkey to the parliamentary system that existed before the 2018 election, focused on returning Turkey to the parliamentary system that existed before the 2018 election,

~~20 Hubbard, “Skyrocketing Prices in Turkey Hurt Families and Tarnish Erdogan”; “Polls indicate close race between~~
~~rival blocs, yet people increasingly think Erdoğan will win,” BIA News, October 12, 2022; Berk Esen, “The opposition~~
~~alliance in Turkey: A viable alternative to Erdogan?” SWP Comment, August 2022.~~
~~21 “Al-Monitor/Premise poll finds tight race for Erdogan in Turkey’s elections,” Al-Monitor, December 7, 2022.~~
~~22 Mesut Yegen, “Erdogan and the Turkish Opposition Revisit the Kurdish Question,” SWP Comment, April 2022.~~
~~23 Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, “It Is Not Too Early to Think About Political Change in Turkey,” German Marshall Fund of~~
~~the United States, January 10, 2022; Kirisci and Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to~~
~~Erdoğan After Two Decades in Power?”~~
~~24 Ozer Sencar of Metropoll, in Laura Pitel, “Will the ailing Turkish economy bring Erdogan down?” Financial Times,~~
~~November 1, 2021.~~
~~25 Unnamed Western diplomat quoted in Laura Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan: Turkey’s opposition searches for a~~
~~champion,” Financial Times, May 5, 2022.~~
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~~largely as a means of limiting executive power.26~~largely as a means of limiting executive power.23 However, it remains unclear which opposition However, it remains unclear which opposition
candidate will challenge Erdogan for president: CHP party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu (from the candidate will challenge Erdogan for president: CHP party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu (from the
Alevi religious minority), or either of the two mayors who won control of Istanbul and Ankara for Alevi religious minority), or either of the two mayors who won control of Istanbul and Ankara for
the party in 2019 (Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, respectively) and generally poll higher the party in 2019 (Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, respectively) and generally poll higher
than Kilicdaroglu.than Kilicdaroglu.2724 Opposition figures have criticized the Erdogan government’s approach to a Opposition figures have criticized the Erdogan government’s approach to a
range of foreign and domestic policy issues and promised to make changes (see also range of foreign and domestic policy issues and promised to make changes (see also “Foreign
Policy Changes Under a Different President?”)..2825 Imamoglu’s candidacy may be jeopardized by a Imamoglu’s candidacy may be jeopardized by a
criminal conviction (see text box).criminal conviction (see text box).2926 Despite Erdogan’s potential vulnerability, some observers Despite Erdogan’s potential vulnerability, some observers
have have ~~expressed doubt about~~questioned the opposition coalition’s prospects, citing the opposition coalition’s prospects, citing ~~ideological differences~~
~~between its constituent parties.30~~
obstacles posed by disunity, Erdogan’s political resilience, and the government’s influence over the media, economic developments, and judicial rulings.27 Imamoglu’s Criminal Case and Potential Political Ban
Istanbul mayor and CHP member Ekrem Imamoglu could face a ban from political activity because of a December Istanbul mayor and CHP member Ekrem Imamoglu could face a ban from political activity because of a December
2022 criminal conviction. The charge of insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council stemmed from a 2022 criminal conviction. The charge of insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council stemmed from a
remark that Imamoglu said he made about the annul ed March 2019 election (discussed above) in response to an remark that Imamoglu said he made about the annul ed March 2019 election (discussed above) in response to an
insult against him from Turkey’s interior minister.insult against him from Turkey’s interior minister.3128 The court sentenced Imamoglu to jail and banned him from The court sentenced Imamoglu to jail and banned him from
political activity for two years and seven months, but both penalties are subject to appeal, and the timing of the political activity for two years and seven months, but both penalties are subject to appeal, and the timing of the
appellate process is unclear.appellate process is unclear.3229 In the meantime, Imamoglu continues to serve as mayor and engage politically. In the meantime, Imamoglu continues to serve as mayor and engage politically.
Imamoglu and other opposition figures denounced the verdict and judicial process as politicized and a sign of Imamoglu and other opposition figures denounced the verdict and judicial process as politicized and a sign of
government attempts to sideline Erdogan’s potential electoral opponents.government attempts to sideline Erdogan’s potential electoral opponents.33
~~In response to the December court ruling, a State Department statement said~~
~~His [Imamoglu’s] conviction is inconsistent with respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms,~~
~~and the rule of law.... The people of Turkey deserve the ability to exercise their human rights~~
~~and fundamental freedoms without fear of retribution. .. We urge the government to cease~~
~~prosecutions under criminal “insult” laws, and to respect the rights and freedoms of all Turkish~~
~~citizens, including by ensuring an open environment for public debate.34~~
~~Erdogan controls whether to initiate elections before June 2023 and has thus far stated his~~
~~unwillingness to do so. Rather than compel elections in Turkey, domestic instability could lead~~
~~Erdogan’s cabinet to initiate a state of emergency with the potential to delay elections.35~~

2630 The State Department issued a rival blocs, yet people increasingly think Erdoğan will win,” BIA News, October 12, 2022; Berk Esen, “The opposition alliance in Turkey: A viable alternative to Erdogan?” SWP Comment, August 2022. 20 Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, “It Is Not Too Early to Think About Political Change in Turkey,” German Marshall Fund of the United States, January 10, 2022; Kirisci and Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two Decades in Power?” 21 Ozer Sencar of Metropoll, in Laura Pitel, “Will the ailing Turkish economy bring Erdogan down?” Financial Times, November 1, 2021. 22 Unnamed Western diplomat quoted in Laura Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan: Turkey’s opposition searches for a champion,” Financial Times, May 5, 2022. 23 Andrew Wilks, “Turkish opposition forms plan to oust Erdogan, restore parliament’s power,” Andrew Wilks, “Turkish opposition forms plan to oust Erdogan, restore parliament’s power,” Al-Monitor, February , February
15, 2022. 15, 2022.
2724 Ibid.; Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan.” Ibid.; Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan.”
2825 “Türkiye’s CHP forms technocratic committee to advise the govt,” “Türkiye’s CHP forms technocratic committee to advise the govt,” Yetkin Report, December 4, 2022; Berk Esen, , December 4, 2022; Berk Esen,
“Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey,” “Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey,” SWP Comment, September 2022; Alper Coskun and Sinan Ulgen, “Political , September 2022; Alper Coskun and Sinan Ulgen, “Political
Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2022. Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2022.
2926 Gonca Tokyol, “Wielding Istanbul’s clout, Kaftancioglu and the CHP take aim at 2023 elections,” Gonca Tokyol, “Wielding Istanbul’s clout, Kaftancioglu and the CHP take aim at 2023 elections,” Turkey recap
(Substack), November 16, 2022. (Substack), November 16, 2022.
3027 “The opposition should win, but it has obstacles in its way,” Economist, January 16, 2023; James Ryan, “The path ahead in Turkey’s upcoming electoral campaign,” James Ryan, “The path ahead in Turkey’s upcoming electoral campaign,” War on the Rocks, November 10, 2022. , November 10, 2022.
3128 “Turkish court orders jail, political ban for Erdogan rival,” “Turkish court orders jail, political ban for Erdogan rival,” Reuters, December 14, 2022; Andrew Wilks, “Cases , December 14, 2022; Andrew Wilks, “Cases
against opposition politicians mount ahead of Turkish elections,” against opposition politicians mount ahead of Turkish elections,” Al-Monitor, June 2, 2022. , June 2, 2022.
3229 Ben Hubbard and Safak Timur, “Conviction May Sideline Rival of Turkish Leader,” Ben Hubbard and Safak Timur, “Conviction May Sideline Rival of Turkish Leader,” New York Times, December 15, , December 15,
2022. 2022.
3330 Ibid.; Yusuf Selman Inanc, “Turkey: Istanbul mayor given two-year jail sentence and ‘political ban,’” Ibid.; Yusuf Selman Inanc, “Turkey: Istanbul mayor given two-year jail sentence and ‘political ban,’” Middle East
~~Eye, December 14, 2022.~~
~~34 State Department, “Turkey’s Conviction and Sentencing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu,” December 15, 2022.~~
~~35 “Professor says Turkey may declare state of emergency following economic crisis,” Duvar English, December 14,~~
~~2021.~~
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Congressional Research Service 4 link to page 24 link to page 26 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief statement criticizing Imamoglu’s conviction, and urging the government to cease prosecutions under criminal insult laws.31 In a separate case, Turkish prosecutors charged Imamoglu (and six co-workers) in January 2023 with improperly awarding a public tender to a company during his time as mayor of an Istanbul district (before he was elected mayor of the entire city).32 Imamoglu has called the charges “an attempt to fabricate a bogus criminal offence,” saying that authorities had not detected anything problematic at the time of the tender.33 How Kurdish citizens of Turkey (numbering nearly 20% of the population) vote could impact the outcome.34 The Kurdish-led Peoples’ Democratic Party (Turkish acronym HDP), which could face a legal ban,35 announced in January 2023 that it would run its own presidential candidate in the elections.36 Pending resolution of the potential legal ban, Turkey’s Constitutional Court has frozen the HDP bank accounts that hold the party’s state-provided funds.37 Turkish Foreign Policy
General Assessment
Turkey’s strategic orientation, or how it relates to and balances between the West and other global Turkey’s strategic orientation, or how it relates to and balances between the West and other global
and regional powers, is a major consideration for the United States. Trends in Turkey’s relations and regional powers, is a major consideration for the United States. Trends in Turkey’s relations
with the United States and other countries reflect changes to this orientation, as Turkey has sought with the United States and other countries reflect changes to this orientation, as Turkey has sought
greater independence of action as a regional power within a more multipolar global system. greater independence of action as a regional power within a more multipolar global system.
Turkish leaders’ interest in reducing their dependence on the West for defense and discouraging Turkish leaders’ interest in reducing their dependence on the West for defense and discouraging
Western influence over their domestic politics may partly explain their willingness to coordinate Western influence over their domestic politics may partly explain their willingness to coordinate
some actions with Russia, such as in Syria and with Turkey’s purchase of a Russian S-400 some actions with Russia, such as in Syria and with Turkey’s purchase of a Russian S-400
surface-to-air defense system. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with Russia—surface-to-air defense system. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with Russia—
with which it has a long history of discord—including in political and military crises involving with which it has a long history of discord—including in political and military crises involving
Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and Armenia-Azerbaijan. Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and Armenia-Azerbaijan.
In recent years, Turkey has involved its military in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, and In recent years, Turkey has involved its military in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, and
South Caucasus in a way that has affected its relationships with the United States and other key South Caucasus in a way that has affected its relationships with the United States and other key
actors actors (Figure A-2). Turkey appears to be building regional relationships partly due to its export . Turkey appears to be building regional relationships partly due to its export
of the popular Bayraktar TB2 drone (seeof the popular Bayraktar TB2 drone (see Figure A-34), but some observers have raised concerns , but some observers have raised concerns
that “drone diplomacy” could possibly enable human rights violations or lead to other adverse that “drone diplomacy” could possibly enable human rights violations or lead to other adverse
consequences for Turkey’s interests or those of its allies and partners.consequences for Turkey’s interests or those of its allies and partners.~~36 U.S. officials have~~
~~sometimes encouraged cooperation among other allies and partners to counter Turkish actions.37~~
~~In the past year, however, Turkey has taken some steps to ease tensions with major U.S. partners~~
~~in the Middle East—namely Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.38 U.S. and~~
~~Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on regional security matters remains mutually~~
~~important.39~~
~~Turkish leaders appear to compartmentalize their partnerships and rivalries with other influential~~
~~countries as each situation dictates, partly in an attempt to reduce Turkey’s dependence on these~~
~~actors and maintain its leverage with them.40 For decades, Turkey has relied closely on the United~~
~~States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for defense cooperation, European~~
~~countries for trade and investment (including a customs union with the EU since the late 1990s),~~
~~and Russia and Iran for energy imports.~~
~~Without a means of global power projection or major natural resource wealth, Turkey’s military~~
~~strength and economic well-being appear to remain largely dependent on these traditional~~
~~relationships. Turkey’s ongoing economic struggles (discussed above) highlight the risks it faces~~

~~36 Salem Solomon, “Ethiopia Ups Use of Drone Strikes in Conflict Prompting Worries About Civilian Toll,”~~ ~~Voice of~~
~~America, February 2, 2022; Fehim Tastekin, “Are Turkish drones complicating disputes in Central Asia?” Al-Monitor,~~
~~September 26, 2022; Federico Borsari, “Turkey’s drone diplomacy: Lessons for Europe,” European Council on Foreign~~
~~Relations, January 31, 2022; Alper Coskun, “Strengthening Turkish Policy on Drone Exports,” Carnegie Endowment~~
~~for International Peace, January 18, 2022.~~
~~37 See, for example, Richard Outzen, “What Is Turkey Thinking in the Eastern Med?” Hoover Institution, December 7,~~
~~2021.~~
~~38 See CRS Report R41368, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.~~
~~39 State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,”~~
~~May 18, 2022.~~
~~40 Nur Ozcan Erbay, “Ankara to use compartmentalization in managing relations,” Daily Sabah, June 24, 2021;~~
~~Stephen J. Flanagan et al.,~~ ~~Turkey’s Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the~~
~~U.S. Army, RAND Corporation, 2020.~~
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~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

~~if it jeopardizes these ties.41~~38 U.S. officials have Eye, December 14, 2022. 31 State Department, “Turkey’s Conviction and Sentencing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu,” December 15, 2022. 32 Amberin Zaman, “Istanbul mayor charged with corruption as Turkish opposition weighs Erdogan challenger,” Al-Monitor, January 11, 2023. 33 “Istanbul mayor, Erdogan critic faces fraud case – Haberturk,” Reuters, January 11, 2023. 34 Mesut Yegen, “Erdogan and the Turkish Opposition Revisit the Kurdish Question,” SWP Comment, April 2022. 35 Diego Cupolo, “Top Turkish court accepts revised indictment to ban pro-Kurdish party,” Al-Monitor, June 21, 2021. 36 Amberin Zaman, “Will Kurds’ choice to field own candidate benefit Erdogan or Turkey’s opposition?” Al-Monitor, January 9, 2023. 37 Andrew Wilks, “Turkey's historic election could move up as Erdogan calculates,” Al-Monitor, January 5, 2023. 38 Salem Solomon, “Ethiopia Ups Use of Drone Strikes in Conflict Prompting Worries About Civilian Toll,” Voice of America, February 2, 2022; Fehim Tastekin, “Are Turkish drones complicating disputes in Central Asia?” Al-Monitor, September 26, 2022; Federico Borsari, “Turkey’s drone diplomacy: Lessons for Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, January 31, 2022; Alper Coskun, “Strengthening Turkish Policy on Drone Exports,” Carnegie Endowment Congressional Research Service 5 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief sometimes encouraged cooperation among other allies and partners to counter Turkish actions.39 In the past year, however, Turkey has taken some steps to ease tensions with major U.S. partners in the Middle East—namely Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.40 U.S. and Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on regional security matters remains mutually important.41 Turkish leaders appear to compartmentalize their partnerships and rivalries with other influential countries as each situation dictates, partly in an attempt to reduce Turkey’s dependence on these actors and maintain its leverage with them.42 For decades, Turkey has relied closely on the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for defense cooperation, European countries for trade and investment (including a customs union with the EU since the late 1990s), and Russia and Iran for energy imports. Without a means of global power projection or major natural resource wealth, Turkey’s military strength and economic well-being appear to remain largely dependent on these traditional relationships. Turkey’s ongoing economic struggles (discussed above) highlight the risks it faces if it jeopardizes these ties.43 Turkey’s future foreign policy course could depend partly on the Turkey’s future foreign policy course could depend partly on the
degree to which Turkish leaders feel constrained by their traditional security and economic degree to which Turkish leaders feel constrained by their traditional security and economic
relationships with Western powers, and how willing they are to risk tensions or breaks in those relationships with Western powers, and how willing they are to risk tensions or breaks in those
relationships while building other global relationships. relationships while building other global relationships.
Foreign Policy Changes Under a Different President?
In anticipation of 2023 elections, observers have speculated about how a new president’s foreign In anticipation of 2023 elections, observers have speculated about how a new president’s foreign
policy (including domestic policy with clear foreign policy ramifications) might differ from policy (including domestic policy with clear foreign policy ramifications) might differ from
Erdogan’s if an opposition candidate wins.Erdogan’s if an opposition candidate wins.4244 Because of widespread nationalistic sentiment Because of widespread nationalistic sentiment
among Turkey’s population and most of its political parties, a different president may have among Turkey’s population and most of its political parties, a different president may have
difficulty changing Turkish policies on some of the following matters of core security concern: difficulty changing Turkish policies on some of the following matters of core security concern:
Syria and Iraq (Kurdish militancy, refugee issues, and other countries’ influence), Greece and Syria and Iraq (Kurdish militancy, refugee issues, and other countries’ influence), Greece and
Cyprus (Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean disputes), and Russia and Ukraine (conflict and its Cyprus (Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean disputes), and Russia and Ukraine (conflict and its
regional and global consequences). regional and global consequences).
However, a different president may be more likely to alter certain ongoing policies that may be However, a different president may be more likely to alter certain ongoing policies that may be
more reflective of Erdogan’s or the AKP’s preferences than of broad national consensus. Such more reflective of Erdogan’s or the AKP’s preferences than of broad national consensus. Such
changes may include (1) providing more flexibility to central bankers and other officials on changes may include (1) providing more flexibility to central bankers and other officials on
monetary policy decisions and other measures to address Turkey’s economic problems, (2) giving monetary policy decisions and other measures to address Turkey’s economic problems, (2) giving
greater consideration to European Court of Human Rights rulings, and (3) reducing Turkish greater consideration to European Court of Human Rights rulings, and (3) reducing Turkish
for International Peace, January 18, 2022. 39 See, for example, Richard Outzen, “What Is Turkey Thinking in the Eastern Med?” Hoover Institution, December 7, 2021. 40 See CRS Report R41368, Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. 41 State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,” May 18, 2022. 42 Nur Ozcan Erbay, “Ankara to use compartmentalization in managing relations,” Daily Sabah, June 24, 2021; Stephen J. Flanagan et al., Turkey’s Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army, RAND Corporation, 2020. 43 Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay, “The Third Age of Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy,” Center for European Policy Analysis, February 17, 2022. 44 Alan Makovsky, “Turkey’s Hinge Election,” Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, November 2022; Coskun and Ulgen, “Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy.” Congressional Research Service 6 link to page 27 link to page 28 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief support for Sunni Islamist groups like Hamas (a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), the support for Sunni Islamist groups like Hamas (a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), the
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and Syrian armed opposition factions. Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and Syrian armed opposition factions.
Some Turkish opposition parties’ foreign policy statements suggest that a different president Some Turkish opposition parties’ foreign policy statements suggest that a different president
might be less willing than Erdogan to say and do things that risk harming relationships with the might be less willing than Erdogan to say and do things that risk harming relationships with the
United States and European countries.United States and European countries.4345 Thus, despite the difficulties that may surround changing Thus, despite the difficulties that may surround changing
some policies (as mentioned above), a different Turkish president could conceivably be less some policies (as mentioned above), a different Turkish president could conceivably be less
inclined toward implementing those policies in a way that might worsen relations with Western inclined toward implementing those policies in a way that might worsen relations with Western
states, such as by pursuing additional arms purchases from Russia or new military operations in states, such as by pursuing additional arms purchases from Russia or new military operations in
northern Syria or the Aegean/Eastern Mediterranean area. However, if a new, untested Turkish northern Syria or the Aegean/Eastern Mediterranean area. However, if a new, untested Turkish
government feels pressure to signal its strength to various international actors or to placate government feels pressure to signal its strength to various international actors or to placate
multiple domestic constituencies within a coalition, that president may strive to match Erdogan’s multiple domestic constituencies within a coalition, that president may strive to match Erdogan’s
reputation for assertiveness. Conversely, a president facing lack of consensus within a coalition reputation for assertiveness. Conversely, a president facing lack of consensus within a coalition
might become more passive on foreign policy. might become more passive on foreign policy.
~~U.S. steps to help a potential new Turkish government—whether on arms sales, sanctions, the~~
~~economy, or other matters—could encourage an improvement in bilateral relations. If, however,~~
~~Turkish leaders or domestic audiences assess that any such steps are likely to bind future Turkish~~
~~actions to U.S. interests, those concerns could limit a new Turkish government’s willingness to~~
~~embrace them.~~

~~41 Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay, “The Third Age of Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy,” Center for European Policy~~
~~Analysis, February 17, 2022.~~
~~42 Alan Makovsky, “Turkey’s Hinge Election,” Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, November 2022; Coskun and Ulgen,~~
~~“Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy.”~~
~~43 Coskun and Ulgen, “Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy.”~~
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U.S./NATO Strategic Relationship and Military Presence
The United States has valued Turkey’s geopolitical importance to and military strength within the The United States has valued Turkey’s geopolitical importance to and military strength within the
NATO alliance, while viewing Turkey’s NATO membership as helping anchor Turkey to the NATO alliance, while viewing Turkey’s NATO membership as helping anchor Turkey to the
West. For Turkey, NATO’s traditional importance has been to mitigate Turkish concerns about West. For Turkey, NATO’s traditional importance has been to mitigate Turkish concerns about
encroachment by neighbors, such as the Soviet Union’s aggressive post-World War II posturing encroachment by neighbors, such as the Soviet Union’s aggressive post-World War II posturing
leading up to the Cold War. In more recent or ongoing arenas of conflict like Ukraine and Syria, leading up to the Cold War. In more recent or ongoing arenas of conflict like Ukraine and Syria,
Turkey’s possible interest in countering Russian objectives may be partly motivating its military Turkey’s possible interest in countering Russian objectives may be partly motivating its military
operations and arms exports.operations and arms exports.4446
Turkey’s location near several conflict areas has made the continuing availability of its territory Turkey’s location near several conflict areas has made the continuing availability of its territory
for the stationing and transport of arms, cargo, and personnel valuable for the United States and for the stationing and transport of arms, cargo, and personnel valuable for the United States and
NATO. In addition to Incirlik Air Base near the southern Turkish city of Adana, other key NATO. In addition to Incirlik Air Base near the southern Turkish city of Adana, other key
U.S./NATO sites include an early warning missile defense radar in eastern Turkey and a NATO U.S./NATO sites include an early warning missile defense radar in eastern Turkey and a NATO
ground forces command in Izmir (seeground forces command in Izmir (see Figure A-45). Turkey also controls access to and from the . Turkey also controls access to and from the
Black Sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits (the Straits—Black Sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits (the Straits—see Figure A-56). .
Tensions between Turkey and other NATO members have fueled internal U.S./NATO discussions Tensions between Turkey and other NATO members have fueled internal U.S./NATO discussions
about the continued use of Turkish bases. about the continued use of Turkish bases. ~~As a result of the tensions and questions about the~~
~~safety and utility of Turkish territory for U.S. and NATO assets, some~~Some observers have advocated observers have advocated
exploring alternative basing arrangements in the region.exploring alternative basing arrangements in the region.4547 Some reports suggest that expanded or Some reports suggest that expanded or
potentially expanded U.S. military presences in places such as Greece, Cyprus, and Jordan might potentially expanded U.S. military presences in places such as Greece, Cyprus, and Jordan might
be connected with concerns about Turkey.be connected with concerns about Turkey.4648 In March 2022 congressional hearing testimony, In March 2022 congressional hearing testimony,
Turkey expert and former congressional committee staff member Alan Makovsky said that while Turkey expert and former congressional committee staff member Alan Makovsky said that while
the United States should make efforts to keep Turkey in the “Western camp,” Turkish the United States should make efforts to keep Turkey in the “Western camp,” Turkish
“equivocation in recent years” justifies the United States building and expanding military “equivocation in recent years” justifies the United States building and expanding military
facilities in Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece to “hedge its bets.”facilities in Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece to “hedge its bets.”47
~~U.S. Military Presence in Greece~~
~~Turkish officials have complained about a significant new U.S. military presence at the Greek port of~~
~~Alexandroupoli (alt. Alexandroupolis), located around 10-15 miles from the Turkish border.48 U.S. officials have~~
~~explained that they are using the port as a transit hub to send equipment to allies and partners in the region given~~
~~security concerns regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.49 Some reports speculate about U.S.-Greece discussions~~
~~regarding the possibility of basing U.S. warships in Alexandropouli after the port’s planned expansion.50 In the~~

4449 45 Coskun and Ulgen, “Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy.” 46 Dimitar Bechev, “Russia, Turkey and the Spectre of Regional Instability,” Al Sharq Strategic Research, April 13, Dimitar Bechev, “Russia, Turkey and the Spectre of Regional Instability,” Al Sharq Strategic Research, April 13,
2022; 2022; Mitch Prothero, “Turkey’s Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all yearProthero, “Turkey’s Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year.”
45,” Business Insider, October 22, 2020. 47 See, for example, Xander Snyder, “Beyond Incirlik,” See, for example, Xander Snyder, “Beyond Incirlik,” Geopolitical Futures, April 19, 2019. , April 19, 2019.
4648 “Pentagon pushes back on claim that US to leave Turkey’s Incirlik base,” “Pentagon pushes back on claim that US to leave Turkey’s Incirlik base,” Al-Monitor, September 16, 2020; Joseph , September 16, 2020; Joseph
Trevithick, “Docs Show US to Massively Expand Footprint at Jordanian Air Base amid Spats with Turkey, Iraq,” Trevithick, “Docs Show US to Massively Expand Footprint at Jordanian Air Base amid Spats with Turkey, Iraq,” The
Drive, January 14, 2019. , January 14, 2019.
4749 Prepared testimony of Alan Makovsky, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, “Opportunities and Prepared testimony of Alan Makovsky, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, “Opportunities and
Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean: Examining U.S. Interests and Regional Cooperation,” House Foreign AffairsChallenges in the Eastern Mediterranean: Examining U.S. Interests and Regional Cooperation,” House Foreign Affairs
~~Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and Global Counterterrorism; and Subcommittee on Europe, Energy,~~
~~the Environment and Cyber, March 31, 2022, available at https://www.americanprogress.org/article/opportunities-and-~~
~~challenges-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-examining-u-s-interests-and-regional-cooperation/.~~
~~48 Niki Kitsantonis and Anatoly Kurmanaev, “Sleepy Greek Port Turns into Pivotal Transit Point for American~~
~~Military,” New York Times, August 19, 2022.~~
~~49 Ibid.; Department of Defense News, “Strategic Port Access Aids Support to Ukraine, Austin Tells Greek Defense~~
~~Minister,” July 18, 2022.~~
50 Ahmet Gencturk, “US wants to turn Greek port into alternative to Turkish Straits, claims Greek media,” Anadolu
~~Congressional Research Service~~

8 Congressional Research Service 7 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

~~March 2022 congressional hearing testimony mentioned above, Alan Makovsky referenced U.S.-Greece defense~~
~~cooperation agreements from 2019 and 2021, and said that having facilities at Alexandroupoli allows NATO to~~
~~bypass logjams or closures of the Straits to transport troops and materiel overland to allies and partners.51 After~~
~~Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in October 2022 that the United States no longer maintains a~~
~~balanced approach in the Aegean,52 U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake released a statement saying that there~~
~~has been no shift in U.S. security posture to favor Turkey or Greece, and that the NATO allies’ col ective efforts~~
~~are focused on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.53~~
Russia
Turkey’s relations with Russia feature elements of cooperation and competition. Turkey has made Turkey’s relations with Russia feature elements of cooperation and competition. Turkey has made
a number of foreign policy moves since 2016 toward closer ties with Russia. These moves could a number of foreign policy moves since 2016 toward closer ties with Russia. These moves could
be motivated by a combination of factors, including Turkey’s effort to reduce dependence on the be motivated by a combination of factors, including Turkey’s effort to reduce dependence on the
West, economic opportunism, and chances to increase its regional influence at Russia’s expense. West, economic opportunism, and chances to increase its regional influence at Russia’s expense.
Turkey also has moved closer to a number of countries surrounding Russia—including Ukraine Turkey also has moved closer to a number of countries surrounding Russia—including Ukraine
and Poland—likely in part as a counterweight to Russian regional power.and Poland—likely in part as a counterweight to Russian regional power.5450
Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine and Turkish Mediation Efforts
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has heightened challenges Turkey faces in balancing its Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has heightened challenges Turkey faces in balancing its
relations with the two countries, with implications for U.S.-Turkey ties. Turkey’s links with relations with the two countries, with implications for U.S.-Turkey ties. Turkey’s links with
Russia—especially its 2019 acquisition of a Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—have Russia—especially its 2019 acquisition of a Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—have
fueled major U.S.-Turkey tensions, triggering sanctions and reported informal congressional fueled major U.S.-Turkey tensions, triggering sanctions and reported informal congressional
holds on arms sales (discussed below). However, following the renewed Russian invasion of holds on arms sales (discussed below). However, following the renewed Russian invasion of
Ukraine, U.S. and Turkish interests in countering Russian revisionist aims—including along the Ukraine, U.S. and Turkish interests in countering Russian revisionist aims—including along the
Black Sea coast—may have converged in some ways as Turkey has helped strengthen Ukraine’s Black Sea coast—may have converged in some ways as Turkey has helped strengthen Ukraine’s
defense capabilities in parallel with other NATO countries.defense capabilities in parallel with other NATO countries.5551 In addition to denouncing Russia’s In addition to denouncing Russia’s
invasion, closing the Straits to belligerent warships, and opposing Russian claims to Ukrainian invasion, closing the Straits to belligerent warships, and opposing Russian claims to Ukrainian
territory (including Crimea),territory (including Crimea),5652 Turkey has supplied Ukraine with armed drone aircraft and mine- Turkey has supplied Ukraine with armed drone aircraft and mine-
resistant ambush-resistant (MRAP) vehicles, as well as humanitarian assistance.resistant ambush-resistant (MRAP) vehicles, as well as humanitarian assistance.5753 Nevertheless, Nevertheless,
Turkey’s leaders likely hope to minimize spillover effects to Turkey’s national security and Turkey’s leaders likely hope to minimize spillover effects to Turkey’s national security and
economy, and this might partly explain Turkey’s continued engagement with Russia and desires economy, and this might partly explain Turkey’s continued engagement with Russia and desires
to help mediate the conflict (discussed below). to help mediate the conflict (discussed below).

Agency, September 20, 2022; “A sleepy Greek port has become vital to the war in Ukraine,” Economist, July 21, 2022.
~~51 Prepared testimony of Alan Makovsky, “Opportunities and Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean: Examining~~
~~U.S. Interests and Regional Cooperation.”~~
~~52 “Cavusoglu says US siding against Turkey in the Aegean, East Med,” Kathimerini, October 21, 2022.~~
~~53 Twitter, U.S. Embassy Türkiye, October 18, 2022 – 3:32 AM, at https://twitter.com/USEmbassyTurkey/status/~~
~~1582273449145212928.~~
54 In January 2023, a media outlet reported that Turkey began transferring some dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (or DPICMs, which are artillery-fired cluster munitions) to Ukraine in November 2022. The report cited various observers debating the potential battlefield impact and humanitarian implications of the weapon’s use.54 Turkish and Ukrainian officials have denied that any such transfers have occurred.55 Turkey-Ukraine Defense Cooperation Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and Global Counterterrorism; and Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber, March 31, 2022, available at https://www.americanprogress.org/article/opportunities-and-challenges-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-examining-u-s-interests-and-regional-cooperation/. 50 Can Kasapoglu, “Turkish Drone Strategy in the Black Sea Region and Beyond,” Jamestown Foundation, October 12, Can Kasapoglu, “Turkish Drone Strategy in the Black Sea Region and Beyond,” Jamestown Foundation, October 12,
2022; Jeffrey Mankoff, “As Russia Reels, Eurasia Roils,” 2022; Jeffrey Mankoff, “As Russia Reels, Eurasia Roils,” War on the Rocks, October 11, 2022. , October 11, 2022.
5551 Saban Kardas, “The War in Ukraine and Turkey’s Cautious Counter-Balancing Against Russia,” German Marshall Saban Kardas, “The War in Ukraine and Turkey’s Cautious Counter-Balancing Against Russia,” German Marshall
Fund of the United States, March 3, 2022. Fund of the United States, March 3, 2022.
5652 “Turkey President Erdoğan on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future of NATO,” “Turkey President Erdoğan on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future of NATO,” PBS Newshour, September , September
19, 2022; “Turkey recognises Russia-Ukraine ‘war’, may block warships,” 19, 2022; “Turkey recognises Russia-Ukraine ‘war’, may block warships,” Agence France Presse, February 27, 2022. , February 27, 2022.
5753 For information on the MRAPs, see Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey sends 50 mine-resistant vehicles to Ukraine, with For information on the MRAPs, see Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey sends 50 mine-resistant vehicles to Ukraine, with
more expected,” more expected,” Defense News, August 22, 2022. , August 22, 2022.
54 Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, “Turkey Is Sending Cold War-Era Cluster Bombs to Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, January 10, 2023. 55 Ragip Soylu, “Russia-Ukraine war: Turkey denies supplying Kyiv with cluster munitions,” Middle East Eye, January 14, 2023. Congressional Research Service 8~~Congressional Research Service~~

9

Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

~~Turkey-Ukraine Defense Cooperation~~
Turkey and Ukraine have strengthened their relations since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.Turkey and Ukraine have strengthened their relations since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.5856 In 2017, a In 2017, a
Turkish security analyst attributed these closer ties to growing mutual interests in countering Russian influence in Turkish security analyst attributed these closer ties to growing mutual interests in countering Russian influence in
the Black Sea region and in sharing military technology to expand and increase the self-sufficiency of their the Black Sea region and in sharing military technology to expand and increase the self-sufficiency of their
respective defense industries.respective defense industries.5957 Since 2020, the two countries have signed multiple agreements signifying closer Since 2020, the two countries have signed multiple agreements signifying closer
cooperation, and also signed a broader free trade agreement (pending ratification) in February 2022.cooperation, and also signed a broader free trade agreement (pending ratification) in February 2022.6058
In line with these agreements, Turkish and Ukrainian companies have engaged in or planned a significant expansion In line with these agreements, Turkish and Ukrainian companies have engaged in or planned a significant expansion
of defense transactions, including a number of joint development or co-production initiatives.of defense transactions, including a number of joint development or co-production initiatives.59 Turkish expertise Turkish expertise
with drone and other aircraft and naval platforms complements Ukrainian skil s in designing and constructing with drone and other aircraft and naval platforms complements Ukrainian skil s in designing and constructing
aerospace engines and missiles.aerospace engines and missiles.~~61 Additionally, Turkey is helping establish Ukraine’s naval capabilities by producing~~
~~corvettes (small warships) for export.62~~
60 As part of the deepening bilateral defense cooperation, Turkey has sold several Turkish-origin Bayraktar TB2 As part of the deepening bilateral defense cooperation, Turkey has sold several Turkish-origin Bayraktar TB2
drones to Ukraine since 2019,drones to Ukraine since 2019,6361 and some reports have suggested that the manufacturer has delivered additional and some reports have suggested that the manufacturer has delivered additional
TB2s to Ukraine at various times since Russia’s 2022 invasion.TB2s to Ukraine at various times since Russia’s 2022 invasion.~~64 The TB2’s main producer, Baykar Technology, is~~
~~planning to build a $100 mil ion factory in Ukraine that could be in position within about three years to~~
~~manufacture the ful range of the company’s drones—doubling Baykar’s overall production capacity.65~~
62 Additionally, Turkey is helping establish Ukraine’s naval capabilities by producing corvettes (small warships) for export.63 Turkey’s maintenance of close relations with both Russia and Ukraine, and its ability to regulate Turkey’s maintenance of close relations with both Russia and Ukraine, and its ability to regulate
access to the Straits has put it in a position to mediate between the parties on various issues of access to the Straits has put it in a position to mediate between the parties on various issues of
contention. In July 2022, Turkey and the United Nations entered into parallel agreements with contention. In July 2022, Turkey and the United Nations entered into parallel agreements with
Russia and Ukraine to provide a Black Sea corridor for Ukrainian grain exports that could partly Russia and Ukraine to provide a Black Sea corridor for Ukrainian grain exports that could partly
alleviate global supply concerns.alleviate global supply concerns.6664 Under the deal, which currently runs until March 2023, Under the deal, which currently runs until March 2023,
Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. have representatives at a joint coordination center in Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. have representatives at a joint coordination center in
Istanbul to oversee implementation and inspect ships to prevent weapons smuggling.Istanbul to oversee implementation and inspect ships to prevent weapons smuggling.6765 President President
Biden has expressed appreciation for Turkey’s efforts.Biden has expressed appreciation for Turkey’s efforts.68
~~In late 2022, Turkey’s mediation efforts expanded beyond the grain deal. Erdogan helped broker a~~
~~Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange in September, and in November Turkey reportedly hosted talks~~
~~between Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns and his Russian counterpart.69~~
~~Erdogan’s chief adviser and spokesperson, Ibrahim Kalin, said in November that Russia “is~~66 Turkey-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation Turkish officials have sought to minimize any negative economic impact Turkey might face from the Russia-Ukraine war, partly through boosting various forms of economic and energy cooperation with Russia. These efforts may stem from Turkish leaders’ concerns about improving

5856 For information on the Crimea invasion, see CRS Report R45008, For information on the Crimea invasion, see CRS Report R45008, Ukraine: Background, Conflict with Russia, and
U.S. Policy, by Cory Welt. , by Cory Welt.
5957 Metin Gurcan, “Turkey-Ukraine defense industry ties are booming,” Metin Gurcan, “Turkey-Ukraine defense industry ties are booming,” Al-Monitor, May 1, 2017. , May 1, 2017.
6058 “Turkey, Ukraine Sign Military Cooperation Agreements,” “Turkey, Ukraine Sign Military Cooperation Agreements,” Associated Press, October 16, 2020; Christopher Isajiw, , October 16, 2020; Christopher Isajiw,
“Free trade and drones: Turkey and Ukraine strengthen strategic ties,” Atlantic Council, February 11, 2022. “Free trade and drones: Turkey and Ukraine strengthen strategic ties,” Atlantic Council, February 11, 2022.
6159 Kasapoglu, “Turkish Drone Strategy in the Black Sea Region and Beyond.” Kasapoglu, “Turkish Drone Strategy in the Black Sea Region and Beyond.”
~~62 Kate Tringham, “Update: Turkey launches first Ada-class corvette for Ukraine and cuts steel for second,”~~ ~~Janes~~
~~Navy International, October 3, 2022.~~
6360 Ibid. 61 Dorian Jones, “Turkey Strengthens Defense Industry with Its Ukraine Partnership,” Dorian Jones, “Turkey Strengthens Defense Industry with Its Ukraine Partnership,” Voice of America, February 4, , February 4,
2022. 2022.
6462 David Hambling, “New Bayraktar Drones Still Seem to Be Reaching Ukraine,” David Hambling, “New Bayraktar Drones Still Seem to Be Reaching Ukraine,” ~~forbes.com~~Forbes, May 10, 2022. , May 10, 2022.
65The TB2’s main producer, Baykar Technology, is planning to build a $100 million factory in Ukraine that could be in position within about three years to manufacture the full range of the company’s drones—doubling Baykar’s overall production capacity. Jared Malsin, “Erdogan Seizes Chance to Give Turkey a Global Role,” Jared Malsin, “Erdogan Seizes Chance to Give Turkey a Global Role,” Wall Street Journal, November 7, 2022. , November 7, 2022.
66 63 Kate Tringham, “Update: Turkey launches first Ada-class corvette for Ukraine and cuts steel for second,” Janes Navy International, October 3, 2022. 64 “Ukraine, Russia agree to export grain, ending a standoff that threatened food supply” “Ukraine, Russia agree to export grain, ending a standoff that threatened food supply” Associated Press, July 22, , July 22,
2022. 2022.
6765 See https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/background. See https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/background.
6866 White House, “Readout of President Biden’s Meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkiye,” November White House, “Readout of President Biden’s Meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkiye,” November
15, 2022. 15, 2022.
~~69 Fatma Tanis, “Turkey is friendly with both Russia and Ukraine. Now it wants them to talk peace,” NPR, November~~
~~16, 2022.~~
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

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Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

~~interested in finding and reaching a new deal with the West [in relation to the conflict in Ukraine],~~
~~and more particularly with the United States.”70~~
~~Turkey-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation~~
~~Turkish officials have sought to minimize any negative economic impact Turkey might face from~~
~~the Russia-Ukraine war, partly through boosting various forms of economic and energy~~
~~cooperation with Russia. These efforts may stem from Turkish leaders’ concerns about improving~~
~~the country’s economic profile in advance of 2023 elections.71~~the country’s economic profile in advance of 2023 elections.67 The Turkish government has not The Turkish government has not
joined economic sanctions against Russia or closed its airspace to Russian civilian flights. joined economic sanctions against Russia or closed its airspace to Russian civilian flights.
In August 2022, Presidents Erdogan and Putin publicly agreed to bolster Turkey-Russia In August 2022, Presidents Erdogan and Putin publicly agreed to bolster Turkey-Russia
cooperation across economic sectors.cooperation across economic sectors.7268 Turkey’s Russia-related dealings could potentially lead to Turkey’s Russia-related dealings could potentially lead to
Western secondary sanctions against Turkey for facilitating Russian sanctions evasion. In June Western secondary sanctions against Turkey for facilitating Russian sanctions evasion. In June
2022, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo reportedly visited Turkey to raise 2022, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo reportedly visited Turkey to raise
concerns over the movement of some Russian assets and business operations to Turkey,concerns over the movement of some Russian assets and business operations to Turkey,7369 and in and in
August Adeyemo sent a letter to Turkish business groups warning of penalties if they worked August Adeyemo sent a letter to Turkish business groups warning of penalties if they worked
with Russian individuals or entities facing sanctions.with Russian individuals or entities facing sanctions.7470
NATO Accession Process for Sweden and Finland
Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO in May 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO in May 2022, following Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine. Turkey objected to the formal start of the two countries’ accession process, delaying it Ukraine. Turkey objected to the formal start of the two countries’ accession process, delaying it
for more than a month. Under Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the admission of new allies for more than a month. Under Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the admission of new allies
requires the unanimous agreement of existing members. requires the unanimous agreement of existing members.
The Turkish objections centered around claims that Sweden and Finland have supported or The Turkish objections centered around claims that Sweden and Finland have supported or
harbored sympathies for groups that Turkey deems to be terrorist organizations, namely the PKK harbored sympathies for groups that Turkey deems to be terrorist organizations, namely the PKK
and the Fethullah Gulen movement.and the Fethullah Gulen movement.7571 (The United States and EU also classify the PKK as a (The United States and EU also classify the PKK as a
terrorist group.) Turkey demanded that both countries lift the suspension of arms sales they have terrorist group.) Turkey demanded that both countries lift the suspension of arms sales they have
maintained against Turkey since its 2019 incursion into Syria against the PKK-linked Kurdish maintained against Turkey since its 2019 incursion into Syria against the PKK-linked Kurdish
group (the People’s Protection Units—Kurdish acronym YPG) that has partnered with the U.S.-group (the People’s Protection Units—Kurdish acronym YPG) that has partnered with the U.S.-
led anti-Islamic State coalition.led anti-Islamic State coalition.7672 Turkey removed its objections to starting the accession process Turkey removed its objections to starting the accession process
after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg mediated a June 2022 agreement between Turkey, after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg mediated a June 2022 agreement between Turkey,
Sweden, and Finland. In the agreement, the three countries confirmed that no arms embargoes Sweden, and Finland. In the agreement, the three countries confirmed that no arms embargoes

~~70 Ibid.~~
71remain in place between them. Further, Sweden and Finland agreed not to support the YPG or Gulen movement, and pledged to work against the PKK.73 While Turkey’s decision generally drew plaudits from other NATO members, during the delay some Western officials had raised questions about Turkey’s commitment to strengthening NATO. Since then, President Erdogan has sought to have Sweden and Finland take additional steps before Turkey’s parliament considers ratifying the two countries’ accession.74 With Hungary 67 Patricia Cohen, “Turkey Tightens Energy Ties with Russia as Other Nations Step Back,” Patricia Cohen, “Turkey Tightens Energy Ties with Russia as Other Nations Step Back,” New York Times, December , December
10, 2022. 10, 2022.
7268 “Russia’s Putin, Turkey’s Erdogan agree to boost economic, energy cooperation,” “Russia’s Putin, Turkey’s Erdogan agree to boost economic, energy cooperation,” Agence France Presse, August 5, , August 5,
2022. 2022.
7369 Amberin Zaman, “US deputy treasury secretary in Turkey to warn against evading Russian sanctions,” Amberin Zaman, “US deputy treasury secretary in Turkey to warn against evading Russian sanctions,” Al-Monitor, ,
June 22, 2022. June 22, 2022.
7470 Elif Ince et al., “Russian Superyachts, Subject to Sanctions, Find a Haven in Turkey,” Elif Ince et al., “Russian Superyachts, Subject to Sanctions, Find a Haven in Turkey,” New York Times, October 24, , October 24,
2022. 2022.
7571 Semih Idiz, “How long can Erdogan sustain threat to veto Finnish, Swedish NATO bids?” Semih Idiz, “How long can Erdogan sustain threat to veto Finnish, Swedish NATO bids?” Al-Monitor, May 17, , May 17,
2022. 2022.
7672 Sources citing links between the PKK and YPG (or PKK affiliates in Syria) include State Department, Sources citing links between the PKK and YPG (or PKK affiliates in Syria) include State Department, Country
Reports on Terrorism 2020, Syria; Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux”; Barak , Syria; Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux”; Barak
Barfi, Barfi, Ascent of the PYD and the SDF, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2016. , Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2016.
73 Agreement text available at Twitter, Ragip Soylu, June 28, 2022 – 2:48 PM, at https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1541856195257966592. 74 Amberin Zaman, “Erdogan says Sweden’s, Finland’s NATO memberships not done deal,” Al-Monitor, June 30, 2022. Congressional Research Service 10 link to page 21 link to page 14 ~~Congressional Research Service~~

11

~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

~~remain in place between them. Further, Sweden and Finland agreed not to support the YPG or~~
~~Gulen movement, and pledged to work against the PKK.77~~
~~While Turkey’s decision generally drew plaudits from other NATO members, during the delay~~
~~some Western officials had raised questions about Turkey’s commitment to strengthening NATO.~~
~~President Erdogan maintained that Turkey might delay its parliamentary ratification of the~~
~~accession process.78 With Hungary likely to ratify Swedish and Finnish accession by early 2023,~~
~~Turkey could remain the only country delaying the process.79~~
~~In December, Sweden reportedly extradited a man who had been convicted in Turkey in 2015 of~~
~~being a PKK member. Turkish officials have welcomed the action and expressed hope for~~
~~additional extraditions and steps on countering terrorist-related financing.80~~
~~At a December press conference with Sweden’s and Finland’s foreign ministers, Secretary of~~
~~State Blinken reiterated strong U.S. support for the two countries’ NATO accession and said that~~
~~they have addressed Turkey’s security concerns in tangible ways. He stated that “it is not a~~
~~bilateral issue between the United States and Turkey and it’s not going to turn into one,” while~~
~~also expressing confidence that the process will come to a successful conclusion soon.81~~
~~Syria82~~
~~Background~~
~~Turkey’s involvement in Syria’s conflict since it started in 2011 has been complicated and costly~~
~~and has severely strained U.S.-Turkey ties.83 Turkey’s priorities in Syria’s civil war have evolved~~
~~during the course of the conflict. While Turkey still opposes Syrian President Bashar al Asad, it~~
~~has engaged in a mix of coordination and competition with Russia and Iran (which support Asad)~~
~~since intervening militarily in Syria starting in August 2016. Turkey and the United States have~~
~~engaged in similarly inconsistent interactions in northern Syria east of the Euphrates River, where~~
~~U.S. forces have been based.~~
~~Since at least 2014, Turkey has actively sought to thwart the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection~~
~~Units (YPG) from establishing an autonomous area along Syria’s northern border with Turkey.~~
~~Turkey’s government considers the YPG and its political counterpart, the Democratic Union~~
~~Party (PYD), to be a major threat to Turkish security, based on Turkish concerns that YPG/PYD~~
~~gains have emboldened the PKK (which has links to the YPG/PYD) in its domestic conflict with~~
~~Turkish authorities.84 The YPG/PYD has a leading role within the Syrian Democratic Forces~~

~~77 Agreement text available at Twitter, Ragip Soylu, June 28, 2022 – 2:48 PM, at https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/~~
~~1541856195257966592.~~
~~78 Amberin Zaman, “Erdogan says Sweden’s, Finland’s NATO memberships not done deal,” Al-Monitor, June 30,~~
~~2022.~~
~~79 William Mauldin and Michael R. Gordon, “Sweden and Finland on Track for NATO Membership,”~~ ~~Wall Street~~
~~Journal, December 9, 2022.~~
~~80 “Turkey welcomes Sweden’s extradition of wanted convict,” Associated Press, December 5, 2022; “Turkey asks~~
~~Finland to resume defense sales amid NATO talks,” Al-Monitor, December 6, 2022.~~
~~81 State Department, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström and Finnish~~
~~Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto at a Joint Press Availability,” December 8, 2022.~~
~~82 See CRS Report RL33487, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, coordinated by Carla E. Humud.~~
~~83 For background, see Burak Kadercan, “Making Sense of Turkey’s Syria Strategy: A ‘Turkish Tragedy’ in the~~
~~Making,” War on the Rocks, August 4, 2017.~~
~~84 See, for example, Soner Cagaptay, “U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG,”~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~

12

~~link to page 28 link to page 15~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief likely to ratify Swedish and Finnish accession by early 2023, Turkey could remain the only country delaying the process.75 For example, Turkey continues to press Sweden and Finland to extradite people that Turkey considers to be terrorists. Under the June 2022 trilateral agreement, Sweden and Finland agreed to address Turkey’s pending deportation or extradition requests in various ways, but did not commit to specific outcomes in those cases.76 In December, Sweden reportedly deported a man who had been convicted in Turkey in 2015 of being a PKK member,77 but Sweden’s supreme court blocked the extradition of a journalist with alleged links to the Gulen movement.78 Sweden’s prime minister and other sources have indicated that Sweden and Finland are not inclined to make political decisions on extradition that contravene domestic judicial findings conducted under due process and the rule of law.79 An unnamed European diplomat was quoted in November as saying, “It remains to be seen if Erdogan thinks he’s got enough signs of goodwill from Sweden and it’s therefore in his political and military interest to declare victory, or if he thinks sticking to the current line will serve his re-election campaign.”80 At a December press conference with Sweden’s and Finland’s foreign ministers, Secretary of State Blinken reiterated strong U.S. support for the two countries’ NATO accession and said that they have addressed Turkey’s security concerns in tangible ways. He stated that “it is not a bilateral issue between the United States and Turkey and it’s not going to turn into one,” while also expressing confidence that the process will come to a successful conclusion soon.81 When various media outlets began reporting in January 2023 that the Administration has provided informal notification of a possible F-16 sale to Turkey (see “Congressional Notification Process” below), the Wall Street Journal cited unnamed U.S. officials predicting that congressional approval of the sale would be tied to Turkish ratification of Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO accession.82 The same article cited the U.S. officials as saying that they are encouraging President Erdogan to stop delaying the accession.83 Shortly thereafter, Turkish presidential adviser Ibrahim Kalin said that Turkey would only be in a position to ratify Sweden’s accession after it passed new anti-terror laws, a process he estimated would take about six months.84 Erdogan then said publicly that he expects the extradition of “around 130” people before approving Turkish ratification.85 75 William Mauldin and Michael R. Gordon, “Sweden and Finland on Track for NATO Membership,” Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2022. 76 See footnote 73. 77 “Sweden deports man with alleged ties to Kurdish militant group,” Reuters, December 3, 2022. 78 “Swedish court blocks extradition of journalist sought by Turkey in Nato deal,” Agence France Presse, December 19, 2022. 79 Steven Erlanger, “Sweden Says Turkey Terms on NATO Bid Go Too Far,” New York Times, January 10, 2023; Ben Keith, “Turkey’s Erdoğan Deploys Sweden and Finland’s NATO Membership Bids to Further His Repression,” Just Security, October 28, 2022. 80 Remi Banet, “Erdogan announces new meeting on Sweden’s NATO bid,” Agence France Presse, November 8, 2022. 81 State Department, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström and Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto at a Joint Press Availability,” December 8, 2022. 82 Jared Malsin and Vivian Salama, “Biden Administration to Ask Congress to Approve F-16 Sale to Turkey,” Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2023. 83 Ibid. 84 “Turkey ‘Not In A Position’ To Ratify Swedish NATO Bid,” Agence France Presse, January 14, 2023. 85 “Sweden, Finland must send up to 130 ‘terrorists’ to Turkey for NATO bid, Erdogan says,” Reuters, January 16, 2023. Congressional Research Service 11 link to page 29 link to page 14 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Syria86 Background Turkey’s involvement in Syria’s conflict since it started in 2011 has been complicated and costly and has severely strained U.S.-Turkey ties.87 Turkey’s priorities in Syria’s civil war have evolved during the course of the conflict. While Turkey still opposes Syrian President Bashar al Asad, it has engaged in a mix of coordination and competition with Russia and Iran (which support Asad) since intervening militarily in Syria starting in August 2016. Turkey and the United States have engaged in similarly inconsistent interactions in northern Syria east of the Euphrates River, where U.S. forces have been based. Since at least 2014, Turkey has actively sought to thwart the Syrian Kurdish YPG from establishing an autonomous area along Syria’s northern border with Turkey. Turkey’s government considers the YPG and its political counterpart, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), to be a major threat to Turkish security, based on Turkish concerns that YPG/PYD gains have emboldened the PKK (which has links to the YPG/PYD) in its domestic conflict with Turkish authorities.88 The YPG/PYD has a leading role within the Syrian Democratic Forces ~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

(SDF), an umbrella group including Arabs and other non-Kurdish elements that became the main (SDF), an umbrella group including Arabs and other non-Kurdish elements that became the main
U.S. ground force partner against the Islamic State in 2015. Turkish-led military operations in U.S. ground force partner against the Islamic State in 2015. Turkish-led military operations in
October 2019 to seize areas of northeastern Syria from the SDF—after U.S. Special Forces pulled October 2019 to seize areas of northeastern Syria from the SDF—after U.S. Special Forces pulled
back from the border area—led to major criticism of and proposed action against Turkey in back from the border area—led to major criticism of and proposed action against Turkey in
~~Congress.85 U.S. officials have continued partnering with SDF forces against the Islamic State in~~
~~some areas of Syria, while the SDF has made arrangements elsewhere for protection to come~~
~~from Syrian government forces.~~
Congress.89 Turkey has set up local councils in areas of northern Syria that Turkey and Turkish-supported Turkey has set up local councils in areas of northern Syria that Turkey and Turkish-supported
Syrian armed opposition groups—generally referred to under the moniker of the Syrian National Syrian armed opposition groups—generally referred to under the moniker of the Syrian National
Army (SNA)—have occupied since 2016 (seeArmy (SNA)—have occupied since 2016 (see Figure A-6)~~. These councils and associated~~
~~security forces provide public services in these areas with funding, oversight, and training from~~
~~Turkish officials. Questions persist about future governance and Turkey’s overarching role.~~7).
Erdogan has hinted at the possibility of repairing relations with Asad, after more than a decade in Erdogan has hinted at the possibility of repairing relations with Asad, after more than a decade in
which Turkey has sought an end to Asad’s rule. As of early 2023, Russia is reportedly trying to which Turkey has sought an end to Asad’s rule. As of early 2023, Russia is reportedly trying to
broker better ties.broker better ties.90 Turkey is seeking Syria’s help to push YPG fighters farther from the border and Turkey is seeking Syria’s help to push YPG fighters farther from the border and
facilitate the return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey. Asad reportedly wants full Turkish facilitate the return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey. Asad reportedly wants full Turkish
withdrawal in return.withdrawal in return.8691 It is unclear whether the two leaders can compromise and how that would It is unclear whether the two leaders can compromise and how that would
affect Turkey’s relationship with the SNA and the overall dynamic with other stakeholders in affect Turkey’s relationship with the SNA and the overall dynamic with other stakeholders in
northern Syria. northern Syria.
Further Turkish Military Operations?
In May 2022, Erdogan began making public statements about a possible new Turkish military In May 2022, Erdogan began making public statements about a possible new Turkish military
operation to expand areas of Turkish control in Syria as a means of countering YPG influence and operation to expand areas of Turkish control in Syria as a means of countering YPG influence and
providing areas for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey.providing areas for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey.~~87 The presence of~~
~~Syrian refugees has become politically charged in Turkey ahead of the scheduled 2023 elections,~~
~~partly because of Turkey’s ongoing economic turmoil. In June testimony before the Senate~~
~~Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy~~
~~Dana Stroul said that any Turkish escalation in northern Syria “risks disrupting [Defeat]-ISIS~~
~~operations,” including the security of SDF-managed detention facilities.88 As of August 2022, a~~
~~media report suggested that approximately 900 U.S. Special Forces personnel were deployed in~~
~~northeastern Syria to help the SDF counter the Islamic State and to discourage other countries’~~
~~forces from occupying the area.89~~
~~A November 13, 2022, bombing that killed six people in Istanbul and injured dozens more may~~
~~have boosted the Turkish government’s resolve to consider a military operation in Syria. Turkish~~

92 The presence of 86 See CRS Report RL33487, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, coordinated by Carla E. Humud. 87 For background, see Burak Kadercan, “Making Sense of Turkey’s Syria Strategy: A ‘Turkish Tragedy’ in the Making,” War on the Rocks, August 4, 2017. 88 See, for example, Soner Cagaptay, “U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, August 7, 2019. For sources linking the PKK to the YPG (or PKK affiliates Washington Institute for Near East Policy, August 7, 2019. For sources linking the PKK to the YPG (or PKK affiliates
in Syria), see footnoin Syria), see footnote 7672.
8589 Rachel Oswald, “Sanctions on Turkey go front and center as Congress returns,” Rachel Oswald, “Sanctions on Turkey go front and center as Congress returns,” Roll Call, October 15, 2019. , October 15, 2019.
8690 Fehim Tastekin, “Fledgling Turkish-Syrian dialogue faces bumpy road ahead,” Al-Monitor, January 14, 2023. 91 “Syria resisting Russia’s efforts to broker Turkey summit, sources say,” “Syria resisting Russia’s efforts to broker Turkey summit, sources say,” Reuters, December 5, 2022. , December 5, 2022.
8792 Fehim Tastekin, “The stumbling blocks facing Turkey’s new operation plan in Syria,” Fehim Tastekin, “The stumbling blocks facing Turkey’s new operation plan in Syria,” Al-Monitor, May 30, 2022. , May 30, 2022.
~~88 Statement of Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy, Testimony Before the~~
~~Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “The Path Forward on U.S.-Syria Policy: Strategy and Accountability,” June 8,~~
~~2022, available at https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/060822_%20Stroul_Testimony.pdf.~~
~~89 Alexander Ward et al., “What are we still doing in Syria?” Politico, August 26, 2022.~~
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~~link to page 28~~ ~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

Congressional Research Service 12 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Syrian refugees has become politically charged in Turkey ahead of the scheduled 2023 elections, partly because of Turkey’s ongoing economic turmoil. In June testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy Dana Stroul said that any Turkish escalation in northern Syria “risks disrupting [Defeat]-ISIS operations,” including the security of SDF-managed detention facilities.93 As of August 2022, a media report suggested that approximately 900 U.S. Special Forces personnel were deployed in northeastern Syria to help the SDF counter the Islamic State and to discourage other countries’ forces from occupying the area.94 A November 13, 2022, bombing that killed six people in Istanbul and injured dozens more may have boosted the Turkish government’s resolve to consider a military operation in Syria. Turkish officials have publicized information alleging YPG responsibility for the attack, though the YPG officials have publicized information alleging YPG responsibility for the attack, though the YPG
and PKK deny involvement.and PKK deny involvement.90
95 Turkey began air and artillery strikes against SDF-controlled areas of northern Syria (including Turkey began air and artillery strikes against SDF-controlled areas of northern Syria (including
civilian infrastructure) and PKK targets in northern Iraq on November 20, 2022, dubbing the civilian infrastructure) and PKK targets in northern Iraq on November 20, 2022, dubbing the
strikes Operation Claw-Sword and invoking self-defense as justification. Various U.S. official strikes Operation Claw-Sword and invoking self-defense as justification. Various U.S. official
statements have acknowledged Turkey’s right to self-defense, but have generally opposed cross-statements have acknowledged Turkey’s right to self-defense, but have generally opposed cross-
border strikes and voiced concerns that Turkey-SDF clashes could reduce the SDF’s focus on border strikes and voiced concerns that Turkey-SDF clashes could reduce the SDF’s focus on
countering the Islamic State.countering the Islamic State.9196 In a November 30 call between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin In a November 30 call between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin
and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Secretary Austin expressed the Defense Department’s and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Secretary Austin expressed the Defense Department’s
“strong opposition to a new Turkish military operation.”“strong opposition to a new Turkish military operation.”92
~~Based on open source reporting, the likely focus of a Turkish ground operation would be to eject~~
~~the SDF from the towns and surroundings of Tell Rifat and Manbij (see Figure A-6).93 These~~
~~areas include important supply routes connecting northwestern and northeastern Syria, and are~~
~~not in the American military sphere of operation in northeastern Syria, but farther west in the~~
~~Russian and Syrian regime sphere. Concerns about how a Turkish-led ground operation in areas~~
~~surrounding Aleppo province might affect Russian, Iranian, and Syrian government sway in the~~
~~province could affect Russia’s stance toward a potential operation.94 One former senior U.S.~~
~~official has speculated that Russia might approve a Turkish operation into Kobane/Ayn al Arab in~~
~~the hope that it could drive a wedge between the United States and Turkey, and thus weaken their~~
~~efforts to contain Russia in Syria.95~~
97 U.S.-Turkey Arms Sales Issues
How Turkey procures key weapons systems is relevant to U.S. policy in part because it affects How Turkey procures key weapons systems is relevant to U.S. policy in part because it affects
Turkey’s partnerships with major powers and the country’s role within NATO. For decades, Turkey’s partnerships with major powers and the country’s role within NATO. For decades,
Turkey has relied on certain U.S.-origin equipment such as aircraft, helicopters, missiles, and Turkey has relied on certain U.S.-origin equipment such as aircraft, helicopters, missiles, and
other munitions to maintain military strength.other munitions to maintain military strength.9698
Russian S-400 Acquisition: Removal from F-35 Program,
U.S. Sanctions, and Informal Holds
Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 system, which Turkey ordered in 2017 and Russia Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 system, which Turkey ordered in 2017 and Russia
delivered in 2019,delivered in 2019,9799 has significant implications for Turkey’s relations with Russia, the United has significant implications for Turkey’s relations with Russia, the United

~~90 “Turkey blames deadly bomb on Kurdish militants; PKK denies involvement,” Reuters, November 14, 2022.~~
~~91 Ibid.~~
~~92 Defense Department, “Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Phone Call With Turkish Minister of~~
~~National Defense Hulusi Akar,” November 30, 2022.~~
~~93 Rich Outzen, “The risks and rewards of Erdogan’s next military operation,” Atlantic Council, December 1, 2022.~~
~~94 Pepe Escobar, “Operation Claw-Sword: Erdogan’s big new game in Syria,” Asia Times, November 27, 2022; Soner~~
~~Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, interviewed in Nadeen Ebrahim, “Will Erdogan finally~~
~~deliver on his vow to invade northern Syria?” CNN, November 25, 2022.~~
~~95 James Jeffrey, “How the U.S. Can Compromise with Turkey on Syria,” Foreign Policy, December 9, 2022.~~
96States, and other NATO countries. As a direct result of the transaction, the Trump Administration removed Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in July 2019, and imposed sanctions 93 Statement of Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy, Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “The Path Forward on U.S.-Syria Policy: Strategy and Accountability,” June 8, 2022, available at https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/060822_%20Stroul_Testimony.pdf. 94 Alexander Ward et al., “What are we still doing in Syria?” Politico, August 26, 2022. 95 “Turkey blames deadly bomb on Kurdish militants; PKK denies involvement,” Reuters, November 14, 2022. 96 Ibid. 97 Defense Department, “Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Phone Call With Turkish Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar,” November 30, 2022. 98 Turkey also has procurement and co-development relationships with other NATO allies, including Germany Turkey also has procurement and co-development relationships with other NATO allies, including Germany
(submarines), Italy (helicopters and reconnaissance satellites), and the United Kingdom (a fighter aircraft prototype). (submarines), Italy (helicopters and reconnaissance satellites), and the United Kingdom (a fighter aircraft prototype).
9799 “Turkey, Russia sign deal on supply of S-400 missiles,” “Turkey, Russia sign deal on supply of S-400 missiles,” Reuters, December 29, 2017. According to this source, December 29, 2017. According to this source,
Turkey and Russia reached agreement on the sale of at least one S-400 system for $2.5 billion, with the possibility of a Turkey and Russia reached agreement on the sale of at least one S-400 system for $2.5 billion, with the possibility of a
second system to come later. second system to come later.
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Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

~~States, and other NATO countries. As a direct result of the transaction, the Trump Administration~~
~~removed Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in July 2019, and imposed sanctions~~
under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA, P.L. 115-44) on under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA, P.L. 115-44) on
Turkey’s defense procurement agency in December 2020.Turkey’s defense procurement agency in December 2020.98100 In explaining the U.S. decision to In explaining the U.S. decision to
remove Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019, remove Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019, ~~one official said, “Turkey cannot field~~the Defense Department rejected the idea of Turkey fielding a Russian a Russian
intelligence collection platform intelligence collection platform [(housed within the S-400) that could detect the stealth capabilities of F-35s in Turkey.101~~within the S-400 system] in proximity to where the F-35~~
~~program makes, repairs and houses the F-35. Much of the F-35’s strength lies in its stealth~~
~~capabilities, so the ability to detect those capabilities would jeopardize the long-term security of~~
~~the F-35 program.”99~~ Additionally, Section 1245 of the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Additionally, Section 1245 of the FY2020 National Defense Authorization
Act (NDAA, P.L. 116-92) prohibits the use of U.S. funds to transfer F-35s to Turkey unless the Act (NDAA, P.L. 116-92) prohibits the use of U.S. funds to transfer F-35s to Turkey unless the
Secretaries of Defense and State certify that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400. Secretaries of Defense and State certify that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400.
Turkey has conducted some testing of the S-400 but does not appear to have made the system Turkey has conducted some testing of the S-400 but does not appear to have made the system
~~generally operational. President Erdogan stated in September 2021 that Turkey expected to~~
~~purchase a second S-400 system.100 Secretary of State Blinken warned Turkey that acquiring an~~
~~additional system could lead to more U.S. sanctions under CAATSA.101~~ generally operational. Turkey may need to forgo Turkey may need to forgo
possession or use of the S-400 in order to have CAATSA sanctions removed. possession or use of the S-400 in order to have CAATSA sanctions removed.
An August 2020 article reported that some Members of congressional committees placed An August 2020 article reported that some Members of congressional committees placed ~~informal~~
holds on major new U.S.-origin arms sales to Turkey in connection with the S-400 transaction. holds on major new U.S.-origin arms sales to Turkey in connection with the S-400 transaction.
~~Such a disruption~~Customary practice allows some Members of Congress to place holds on major arms sales, though the holds are not legally binding.102 Such a disruption to U.S. defense transactions with Turkey had not occurred since the 1975-1978 embargo over Cyprus. had not occurred since the 1975-1978 embargo over Cyprus.~~102~~103
Possible F-16 Sales and Congressional Views
Background (Including Turkey-Greece Issues) In the fall of 2021, Turkish officials stated that they had requested to purchase 40 new F-16 In the fall of 2021, Turkish officials stated that they had requested to purchase 40 new F-16
fighter aircraft from the United States and to upgrade 80 F-16s from Turkey’s aging fleet. fighter aircraft from the United States and to upgrade 80 F-16s from Turkey’s aging fleet.
President Biden reportedly discussed the F-16 request with Erdogan during an October 2021 G20 President Biden reportedly discussed the F-16 request with Erdogan during an October 2021 G20
meeting in Rome, indicating that the request would go through the regular arms sales consultation meeting in Rome, indicating that the request would go through the regular arms sales consultation
and notification process with Congress.and notification process with Congress.~~103~~
~~Turkey’s value as a NATO ally amid a new crisis implicating European security—Russia’s war~~
~~on Ukraine—may have subsequently boosted the Administration’s interest in moving forward~~
~~with an F-16 transaction with Turkey. Responding to criticism of a possible F-16 sale from 53~~
~~Members of Congress in a February 2022 letter,104 a State Department official wrote in March~~
~~that Turkey’s support for Ukraine was “an important deterrent to malign influence in the~~
~~region.”105 While acknowledging that any sale would require congressional notification, the~~

98104 In November 2021, a Turkish defense expert described what upgrades of Turkey’s F-16 aircraft to the Block 70/72 Viper configuration could entail, including a new radar, other software and hardware enhancements, and structural improvements that significantly extend each aircraft’s service life.105 Other countries that may receive new or upgraded F-16 Block 70/72 Vipers include Greece, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Morocco, Bahrain, Bulgaria, the Philippines, and Slovakia.106 After Russia’s early 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Turkey’s value as a NATO ally amid a crisis implicating European security may have subsequently boosted the Administration’s interest in moving forward with an F-16 transaction with Turkey in early 2022. Responding to criticism of a 100 Archived CRS Insight IN11557, CRS Insight IN11557, Turkey: U.S. Sanctions Under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
(CAATSA), by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. , by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.
99101 Defense Department, “Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen M. Lord and Deputy Defense Department, “Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen M. Lord and Deputy
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David J. Trachtenberg Press Briefing on DOD’s Response to Turkey Accepting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David J. Trachtenberg Press Briefing on DOD’s Response to Turkey Accepting
Delivery of the Russian S-400 Air and Missile Defense System,” July 17, 2019. Delivery of the Russian S-400 Air and Missile Defense System,” July 17, 2019.
~~100 Humeyra Pamuk, “Erdogan says Turkey plans to buy more Russian defense systems,” Reuters, September 27, 2021.~~
~~101 Tal Axelrod, “Blinken warns Turkey, US allies against purchasing Russian weapons,” The Hill, April 28, 2021.~~
~~102 Valerie Insinna,~~102 CRS Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr. 103 Valerie Insinna et al., “Congress has secretly blocked US arms sales to Turkey for nearly two years,” et al., “Congress has secretly blocked US arms sales to Turkey for nearly two years,” Defense
News, August 12, 2020. , August 12, 2020.
~~103~~104 “Biden talks F-16s, raises human rights in meeting with Turkey’s Erdogan,” “Biden talks F-16s, raises human rights in meeting with Turkey’s Erdogan,” Reuters, October 31, 2021; Diego , October 31, 2021; Diego
Cupolo, “In troubled US-Turkey relations, F-16 deal seen as path for dialogue,” Cupolo, “In troubled US-Turkey relations, F-16 deal seen as path for dialogue,” Al-Monitor, November 1, 2021. For , November 1, 2021. For
background information, see CRS Report RL31675, background information, see CRS Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr. , by Paul K. Kerr.
~~104 Text of letter available at https://pallone.house.gov/sites/pallone.house.gov/files/~~
~~20220123%20Letter%20on%20Turkey%20F-16%20Request.pdf.~~
~~105 Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Naz Durakoglu, quoted in Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. says~~105 Arda Mevlutoglu, “F-16Vs Instead of F-35s: What’s behind Turkey’s Request?” Politics Today, November 22, 2021. 106 Ibid.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

1514 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief possible F-16 sale from 53 Members of Congress in a February 2022 letter,107 a State Department official wrote in March that Turkey’s support for Ukraine was “an important deterrent to malign influence in the region.”108 While acknowledging that any sale would require congressional notification, the official added, “The Administration believes that there are nonetheless compelling long-term NATO alliance unity and capability interests, as well as U.S. national security, economic and commercial interests that are supported by appropriate U.S. defense trade ties with Turkey.”109

~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

~~official added, “The Administration believes that there are nonetheless compelling long-term~~
~~NATO alliance unity and capability interests, as well as U.S. national security, economic and~~
~~commercial interests that are supported by appropriate U.S. defense trade ties with Turkey.”106~~
~~In April 2022, the Administration reportedly notified Congress informally of its intent to upgrade~~
~~some of Turkey’s existing F-16 fleet and provide short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles~~
~~(Sidewinder AIM-9X and AMRAAM AIM-120D) at a total cost to Turkey of around $500~~
~~million.107 In November 2021, a Turkish defense expert described what upgrades of Turkey’s F-~~
~~16 aircraft to the Block 70/72 Viper configuration could entail, including a new radar, other~~
~~software and hardware enhancements, and structural improvements that significantly extend each~~
~~aircraft’s service life.108 Other countries that may receive new or upgraded F-16 Block 70/72~~
~~Vipers include Greece, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Morocco, Bahrain, Bulgaria, the~~
~~Philippines, and Slovakia.109~~
U.S. sales to boost the capabilities and extend the lifespan of Turkey’s F-16 fleet would provide U.S. sales to boost the capabilities and extend the lifespan of Turkey’s F-16 fleet would provide
Turkey time to develop its long-planned indigenous fifth-generation fighter aircraft, dubbed the Turkey time to develop its long-planned indigenous fifth-generation fighter aircraft, dubbed the
TF-X and expected to come into operation over the next decade. Turkey is apparently seeking to TF-X and expected to come into operation over the next decade. Turkey is apparently seeking to
partner with the United Kingdom (including companies BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce) to partner with the United Kingdom (including companies BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce) to
develop technology for the TF-X.110 If unable to procure F-16s or F-16 upgrades to boost the develop technology for the TF-X.110 If unable to procure F-16s or F-16 upgrades to boost the
Turkish air force’s capabilities during the transition to the TF-X, Turkish officials have hinted that Turkish air force’s capabilities during the transition to the TF-X, Turkish officials have hinted that
they might consider purchasing Russian Su-35 fighter aircraft or Western European they might consider purchasing Russian Su-35 fighter aircraft or Western European
alternatives.111 According to some defense analysts, however, Turkey’s calculus has likely alternatives.111 According to some defense analysts, however, Turkey’s calculus has likely
changed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.112 One has written that if Turkey cannot procure F-changed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.112 One has written that if Turkey cannot procure F-
16s, “Security needs and politics dictate Ankara to remain within the NATO scope in its fighter 16s, “Security needs and politics dictate Ankara to remain within the NATO scope in its fighter
jet inventory. The only viable options before Turkey flies the TF-X are the [Eurofighter] Typhoon, jet inventory. The only viable options before Turkey flies the TF-X are the [Eurofighter] Typhoon,
Saab [Gripen] and F-16 Block 70.”113 Saab [Gripen] and F-16 Block 70.”113
At the end of the June 2022 NATO summit in Spain, where Turkey agreed to allow the Sweden- At the end of the June 2022 NATO summit in Spain, where Turkey agreed to allow the Sweden-
Finland accession process to move forward (pending final Turkish ratification) and President Finland accession process to move forward (pending final Turkish ratification) and President
Biden met with President Erdogan, Biden expressed support for selling new F-16s to Turkey as Biden met with President Erdogan, Biden expressed support for selling new F-16s to Turkey as
well as for upgrades. He also voiced confidence in obtaining congressional support.114 However, well as for upgrades. He also voiced confidence in obtaining congressional support.114 However,
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Menendez has expressed disapproval due to what Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Menendez has expressed disapproval due to what

~~potential F-16 sale to Turkey would serve U.S. interests, NATO – letter,” Reuters, April 6, 2022.~~
~~106 Ibid.~~
~~107 Jared Malsin, “Biden Administration Asks Congress to Approve New Weapons Deal with Turkey,”~~ ~~Wall Street~~
~~Journal, May 11, 2022; Daniel Flatley and Selcan Hacaoglu, “Turkey Wins Biden Backing for Its F-16 Fighter Jets~~
~~Upgrades,” Bloomberg, May 12, 2022. For information on informal and formal congressional notifications, see CRS~~
~~Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr.~~
~~108 Arda Mevlutoglu, “F-16Vs Instead of F-35s: What’s behind Turkey’s Request?” Politics Today, November 22,~~
~~2021~~he has termed Erdogan’s “abuses across the region.”115 In addition to ongoing U.S.-Turkey tensions regarding Syrian Kurdish groups in northern Syria, Turkey-Greece disputes regarding overflights of contested areas and other longstanding Aegean Sea issues (referenced in the text box below) spiked in 2022 and attracted close congressional attention.116 Erdogan announced in May 2022 that he would no longer deal with Greek Prime 107 Text of letter available at https://pallone.house.gov/sites/pallone.house.gov/files/20220123%20Letter%20on%20Turkey%20F-16%20Request.pdf. 108 Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Naz Durakoglu, quoted in Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. says potential F-16 sale to Turkey would serve U.S. interests, NATO – letter,” Reuters, April 6, 2022. .
109 Ibid. 109 Ibid.
110 Burak Ege Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts,” 110 Burak Ege Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts,” Defense News, March 9, , March 9,
2022. 2022.
111 “Türkiye signals it may turn to Russia if US blocks F-16 jet sales,” 111 “Türkiye signals it may turn to Russia if US blocks F-16 jet sales,” Daily Sabah, September 9, 2022; Paul Iddon, , September 9, 2022; Paul Iddon,
“Here Are Turkey’s Stopgap Options Until It Can Acquire Fifth-Generation Fighters,” “Here Are Turkey’s Stopgap Options Until It Can Acquire Fifth-Generation Fighters,” ~~forbes.com~~Forbes, March 15, 2021. , March 15, 2021.
112 Paul Iddon, “Where can Turkey buy fighter jets if US F-16 deal falls through?” 112 Paul Iddon, “Where can Turkey buy fighter jets if US F-16 deal falls through?” Middle East Eye, September 29, , September 29,
2022. 2022.
113 Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts.” 113 Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts.”
114 “Biden supports F-16 sale to Turkey, is confident about congressional approval,” 114 “Biden supports F-16 sale to Turkey, is confident about congressional approval,” Reuters, June 30, 2022. , June 30, 2022.
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~~link to page 12 link to page 29~~ ~~Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief~~

~~he has termed Erdogan’s “abuses across the region.”115 In addition to ongoing U.S.-Turkey~~
~~tensions regarding Syrian Kurdish groups in northern Syria, Turkey-Greece disputes regarding~~
~~overflights of contested areas and other longstanding Aegean Sea issues (referenced in the text~~
~~box below) spiked in 2022 and attracted close congressional attention.116 Erdogan announced in~~
~~May 2022 that he would no longer deal with Greek Prime~~ 115 Twitter, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, December 7, 2022 – 10:57 AM, at https://twitter.com/SFRCdems/status/1600519759493304321. 116 Alexis Heraclides, “The unresolved Aegean dispute: Problems and prospects,” Greece and Turkey in Conflict and Cooperation, New York: Routledge, 2019, pp. 89-108; Ryan Gingeras, “Dogfight over the Aegean: Turkish-Greek Relations in Light of Ukraine,” War on the Rocks, June 8, 2022. Congressional Research Service 15 link to page 30 link to page 31 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, after Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, after
Mitsotakis appeared to raise concern about U.S.-Turkey arms transactions while addressing a Mitsotakis appeared to raise concern about U.S.-Turkey arms transactions while addressing a
May 17 joint session of Congress.117 In December, May 17 joint session of Congress.117 In December, ~~a joint explanatory statement accompanying~~
~~the expected~~the final version of the FY2023 NDAA ( final version of the FY2023 NDAA (P.L. 117-263) excluded a House-passed condition on F-16 sales to Turkey (Section 1271 of H.R. 7900) related to potential overflights of Greek territory. However, the joint explanatory statement accompanying the NDAA included a provision stating~~H.R. 7776) said~~, “We believe that North , “We believe that North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should not conduct unauthorized territorial Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should not conduct unauthorized territorial
overflights of another NATO ally’s airspace.”118 overflights of another NATO ally’s airspace.”118
With U.S. officials already having notified a possible upgrade of F-16s for Greece to Congress in With U.S. officials already having notified a possible upgrade of F-16s for Greece to Congress in
2021,119 U.S. decisions on bolstering Turkey’s F-16 fleet could have significant implications for 2021,119 U.S. decisions on bolstering Turkey’s F-16 fleet could have significant implications for
the security balance between Turkey and Greece, and for relations involving the three the security balance between Turkey and Greece, and for relations involving the three
countries.120 In the past three years, Greece has strengthened its defense cooperation and relations countries.120 In the past three years, Greece has strengthened its defense cooperation and relations
with the United States with the United States ~~(see “U.S./NATO Strategic Relationship and Military Presence” above)~~
~~and a number of regional countries such as France, Israel, and Egypt.121~~
~~Turkish Disputes Regarding Greece and Cyprus: Historical Background122~~and a number of regional countries such as France, Israel, and Egypt.121 Enhanced U.S.-Greece defense cooperation has included an expanded U.S. military presence and increased U.S.-Greece and NATO military activities at Greek installations (see also text box below).122 Turkey-Greece-Cyprus Tensions: Background and Some Ongoing Issues123
Since the 1970s, disputes between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea and broader Since the 1970s, disputes between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea and broader
Eastern Mediterranean have been a major point of contention, bringing the sides close to military conflict on Eastern Mediterranean have been a major point of contention, bringing the sides close to military conflict on
several occasions. The disputes, which have their roots in territorial changes after World War I, revolve around several occasions. The disputes, which have their roots in territorial changes after World War I, revolve around
contested borders involving the two countries’ territorial waters, national airspace, exclusive economic zonescontested borders involving the two countries’ territorial waters, national airspace, exclusive economic zones (including energy claims), islands (and their use for military purposes), and , and
continental shelvescontinental shelves ( (see Figure A-78 and and Figure A-8 9 for maps of some of the areas in dispute).for maps of some of the areas in dispute). These tensions These tensions
are related to and further complicated by one of the region’s major unresolved conflicts, the de facto political are related to and further complicated by one of the region’s major unresolved conflicts, the de facto political
division of Cyprus along ethnic lines that dates from the 1974 military clash in which Turkish forces invaded parts division of Cyprus along ethnic lines that dates from the 1974 military clash in which Turkish forces invaded parts
of the island to prevent the ethnic Greek leadership from unifying Cyprus with Greece. The internationally of the island to prevent the ethnic Greek leadership from unifying Cyprus with Greece. The internationally
recognized Republic of Cyprusrecognized Republic of Cyprus (sometimes referred to as Cyprus), which has close ties to Greece, claims jurisdiction over the entire island, but its , which has close ties to Greece, claims jurisdiction over the entire island, but its
effective administrative control is limited to the southern two-thirds, where Greek Cypriots comprise a majority. effective administrative control is limited to the southern two-thirds, where Greek Cypriots comprise a majority.
Turkish Cypriots administer the northern one-third and are backed by Turkey, including a Turkish military Turkish Cypriots administer the northern one-third and are backed by Turkey, including a Turkish military
contingent there since the 1974 clash.contingent there since the 1974 clash.~~123~~124 In 1983, Turkish Cypriot leaders proclaimed this part of the island the In 1983, Turkish Cypriot leaders proclaimed this part of the island the
“Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” although no country other although no country other than Turkey recognizes it, and U.N. Security Council Resolution 541 (1983) considered the Turkish Cypriot claim to be legally invalid. ~~than Turkey recognizes it.~~

~~115 Twitter, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, December 7, 2022 – 10:57 AM, at https://twitter.com/SFRCdems/~~
~~status/1600519759493304321.~~
~~116 Alexis Heraclides, “The unresolved Aegean dispute: Problems and prospects,”~~ ~~Greece and Turkey in Conflict and~~
~~Cooperation, New York: Routledge, 2019, pp. 89-108; Ryan Gingeras, “Dogfight over the Aegean: Turkish-Greek~~
~~Relations in Light of Ukraine,” War on the Rocks, June 8, 2022.~~
117 Greek Prime Minister’s website, “Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ address to the Joint Session of the U.S. 117 Greek Prime Minister’s website, “Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ address to the Joint Session of the U.S.
Congress,” May 17, 2022. Congress,” May 17, 2022.
118 Joint explanatory statement available at https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats.rules.house.gov/files/BILLS- 118 Joint explanatory statement available at https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats.rules.house.gov/files/BILLS-
117HR7776EAS-RCP117-70-JES.pdf. 117HR7776EAS-RCP117-70-JES.pdf.
119 Defense Security Cooperation Agency, “Greece – F-16 Sustainment Materiel and Services, Transmittal No. 21-49,” 119 Defense Security Cooperation Agency, “Greece – F-16 Sustainment Materiel and Services, Transmittal No. 21-49,”
August 3, 2021. August 3, 2021.
120 Aaron Stein, “You Go to War with the Turkey You Have, Not the Turkey You Want,” 120 Aaron Stein, “You Go to War with the Turkey You Have, Not the Turkey You Want,” War on the Rocks, May 30, , May 30,
2022. 2022.
121 See CRS Report R41368, 121 See CRS Report R41368, Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. , by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.
122 122 ~~Ibid.~~
~~123~~State Department, “U.S. Security Cooperation with Greece,” October 31, 2022. 123 Ibid. 124 Turkey retains between 30,000 and 40,000 troops on the island (supplemented by several thousand Turkish Cypriot Turkey retains between 30,000 and 40,000 troops on the island (supplemented by several thousand Turkish Cypriot
soldiers). This presence is countered by a Greek Cypriot force of approximately 12,000 with reported access to between soldiers). This presence is countered by a Greek Cypriot force of approximately 12,000 with reported access to between
50,000 and 75,000 reserves. “Cyprus - Army,” 50,000 and 75,000 reserves. “Cyprus - Army,” Janes Sentinel Security Assessment - Eastern Mediterranean, February , February
3, 2021. The United Nations maintains a peacekeeping mission (UNFICYP) of approximately 900 personnel within a 3, 2021. The United Nations maintains a peacekeeping mission (UNFICYP) of approximately 900 personnel within a
buffer zone headquartered in Cyprus’s divided capital of Nicosia. The United Kingdom maintains approximately 3,000 personnel at two sovereign base areas on the southern portion of the island at Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

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~~buffer zone headquartered in Cyprus’s divided capital of Nicosia. The United Kingdom maintains approximately 3,000~~
~~personnel at two sovereign base areas on the southern portion of the island at Akrotiri and Dhekelia~~ Turkish officials have complained about a significant new U.S. military presence at the Greek port of Alexandroupoli (alt. Alexandroupolis), located around 10-15 miles from the Turkish border.125 U.S. officials have explained that they are using the port as a transit hub to send equipment to allies and partners in the region as part of a broader NATO response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.126 In the March 2022 congressional hearing testimony mentioned above, Alan Makovsky said that having facilities at Alexandroupoli allows NATO to bypass logjams or closures of the Straits to transport troops and materiel overland to allies and partners.127 After Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in October 2022 that the United States no longer maintains a balanced approach in the Aegean,128 U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake released a statement saying that there has been no shift in U.S. security posture to favor Turkey or Greece, and that the NATO allies’ col ective efforts are focused on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.129 Congressional Notification Process Various media sources—citing unnamed U.S. officials—reported in mid-January 2023 that the Administration has provided informal notifications to Congress about possible F-16 sales for Turkey and possible sales of up to 40 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Greece. According to these reports, the January informal notification on Turkey is for 40 new F-16s and 79 F-16 upgrade packages, along with 900 air-to-air missiles and 800 bombs, at an estimated total value of $20 billion.130 Official confirmation may be unavailable because the State Department says it does not comment on possible arms sales until the executive branch formally notifies the sale to Congress.131 Formal notification of a possible arms sale to Congress generally occurs 20 to 40 days after informal notification, giving foreign affairs committees the opportunity during the interim to address concerns with the Administration in a confidential process. Formal notification generally does not proceed if a Member (usually a committee chair or ranking member) places a hold on the proposed transaction.132 In the case of the proposed F-16 sale to Turkey, Al-Monitor wrote in mid-January to expect a “drawn-out process of briefings and deliberations on Capitol Hill before the sale moves forward.”133 Citing unnamed U.S. officials, the Wall Street Journal reported (as also stated above) that congressional approval is contingent on Turkey’s ratification of Swedish-Finnish NATO accession.134 The Administration’s reported informal notifications of potential sales to Turkey and Greece come amid ongoing tensions between the two countries over maritime boundaries and U.S. 125 Niki Kitsantonis and Anatoly Kurmanaev, “Sleepy Greek Port Turns into Pivotal Transit Point for American Military,” New York Times, August 19, 2022. 126 Ibid.; Department of Defense News, “Strategic Port Access Aids Support to Ukraine, Austin Tells Greek Defense Minister,” July 18, 2022. 127 Prepared testimony of Alan Makovsky, “Opportunities and Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean: Examining U.S. Interests and Regional Cooperation.” 128 “Cavusoglu says US siding against Turkey in the Aegean, East Med,” Kathimerini, October 21, 2022. 129 Twitter, U.S. Embassy Türkiye, October 18, 2022 – 3:32 AM, at https://twitter.com/USEmbassyTurkey/status/1582273449145212928. 130 “US working with Congress towards Turkey F-16 sale,” Al-Monitor, January 13, 2023; Malsin and Salama, “Biden Administration to Ask Congress to Approve F-16 Sale to Turkey”; Michael Crowley and Edward Wong, “U.S. Plan to Sell Fighter Jets to Turkey Is Met with Opposition,” New York Times, January 14, 2023. 131 State Department Press Briefing, January 13, 2023. 132 CRS Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr. 133 “US working with Congress towards Turkey F-16 sale.” 134 Malsin and Salama, “Biden Administration to Ask Congress to Approve F-16 Sale to Turkey.” Congressional Research Service 17 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief regional involvement (as mentioned above).135 By timing the informal notification on F-35s for Greece close to the notification for F-16s to Turkey, the Administration may be seeking to reassure Greek leaders and popular opinion that the United States is not favoring Turkey over Greece.136 One journalist has argued: A Greek acquisition of F-35s—coupled with the ongoing procurement of two dozen 4.5-generation Dassault Rafale F3R fighters from France and the upgrade of the bulk of its F-16 fleet to the most advanced Block 72 configuration—will give the Hellenic Air Force a technological edge over its much larger Turkish counterpart. That will remain the case even if Turkey secures this F-16 deal.137 In response to the news of a possible F-35 sale to Greece, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu called on the United States to “pay attention” to the balance of power in the region.138 Shortly after the reported informal notifications, the New York Times cited Chairman Menendez as welcoming the F-35 sale to Greece while strongly opposing the F-16 sale to Turkey, saying: President Erdogan continues to undermine international law, disregard human rights and democratic norms, and engage in alarming and destabilizing behavior in Turkey and against neighboring NATO allies. Until Erdogan ceases his threats, improves his human rights record at home—including by releasing journalists and political opposition—and begins to act like a trusted ally should, I will not approve this sale.139 As mentioned above, congressional holds on proposed arms sales are not legally binding, but the executive branch generally gives broad deference to the chair and ranking member of the foreign affairs committees on possible major foreign arms sales. After formal notification of a potential sale, any Member of Congress can privilege a joint resolution of disapproval for floor action if the Member introduces it within the time period prescribed under the Arms Export Control Act (P.L. 90-629, 82 Stat. 1320).140 For NATO allies such as Turkey and Greece, the prescribed time period is 15 days after formal notification.141 The President can veto a resolution of disapproval, subject to congressional override. 135 CRS Report R41368, Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. 136 Malsin and Salama, “Biden Administration to Ask Congress to Approve F-16 Sale to Turkey”; Crowley and Wong, “U.S. Plan to Sell Fighter Jets to Turkey Is Met with Opposition.” 137 Paul Iddon, “Balance of Power: Why the Biden Administration Wants to Sell Turkey F-16s and Greece F-35s,” Forbes, January 16, 2023. 138 Andrew Wilks, “Turkish FM travels to Washington seeking to seal deal for F-16 fighter jets,” Al-Monitor, January 17, 2023. 139 Crowley and Wong, “U.S. Plan to Sell Fighter Jets to Turkey Is Met with Opposition.” Alexander Ward et al., “Menendez vows to block plan to sell fighter jets to Turkey,” Politico, January 13, 2023. 140 For historical background on how the congressional review process has affected some U.S. arms sales, see CRS Report R44984, Arms Sales in the Middle East: Trends and Analytical Perspectives for U.S. Policy, coordinated by Clayton Thomas; and archived CRS Report R46580, Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge and Possible U.S. Arms Sales to the United Arab Emirates, coordinated by Jeremy M. Sharp and Jim Zanotti. 141 CRS Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr. .
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Appendix. Maps, Facts, and Figures
Figure A-1. Turkey at a Glance

Geography
Area: 783,562 sq km (302,535 sq. mile), slightly larger than Texas 783,562 sq km (302,535 sq. mile), slightly larger than Texas
People
Population: 83,047,706. Most populous cities: Istanbul 15.6 mil, Ankara 5.3 mil, Izmir 3.1 mil, 83,047,706. Most populous cities: Istanbul 15.6 mil, Ankara 5.3 mil, Izmir 3.1 mil,
Bursa 2.1 mil, Adana 1.8 mil, Gaziantep 1.8 mil. Bursa 2.1 mil, Adana 1.8 mil, Gaziantep 1.8 mil.
% of Population 14 or Younger: 23.4% (2020) 23.4% (2020)
Ethnic Groups: Turks 70%-75%; Kurds 19%; Other minorities 6%-11% (2016) Turks 70%-75%; Kurds 19%; Other minorities 6%-11% (2016)
Religion: Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), Others (mainly Christian and Jewish) 0.2% (2017) Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), Others (mainly Christian and Jewish) 0.2% (2017)
Literacy: 96.7% (male 99.1%, female 94.4%) (2019) 96.7% (male 99.1%, female 94.4%) (2019)
Economy
GDP Per Capita (at purchasing power parity): $38,759 $38,759
Real GDP Growth: 5.0% 5.0%
Inflation: 73% 73%
Unemployment: 10.8% 10.8%
Budget Deficit as % of GDP: 4.5% 4.5%
Public Debt as % of GDP: 37.5% 37.5%
Current Account Deficit as % of GDP: 5.7% 5.7%
International currency reserves: $67.1 bil ion $67.1 bil ion
Sources: Graphic created by CRS. Map boundaries and information generated by Hannah Fischer using Graphic created by CRS. Map boundaries and information generated by Hannah Fischer using
Department of State Boundaries (2011); Esri (2014); ArcWorld (2014); DeLorme (2014). Fact information (2022 Department of State Boundaries (2011); Esri (2014); ArcWorld (2014); DeLorme (2014). Fact information (2022
end-of-year estimates or projections unless otherwise specified) from International Monetary Fund, World end-of-year estimates or projections unless otherwise specified) from International Monetary Fund, World
Economic Outlook Database; Economist Intelligence Unit; and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Economic Outlook Database; Economist Intelligence Unit; and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The World
Factbook. .

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Figure A-2. Turkish Public Opinion Polls Congressional Research Service 20 Turkey (Türkiye): Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure A-3. Turkey’s Military Presence Abroad
(as of August 2022) (as of August 2022)

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Figure A-34. Countries Interested in Bayraktar TB2 Drone Aircraft
(as of July 2022) (as of July 2022)

Source: ProPublica, based on news reports and statements from government officials and Baykar Technology. ProPublica, based on news reports and statements from government officials and Baykar Technology.
Notes: Since the publication of this map, the UAE has reportedly acquired TB2s and Saudi Arabia has expressed Since the publication of this map, the UAE has reportedly acquired TB2s and Saudi Arabia has expressed
interest as well. “Türkiye sells its famed battle-tested drones to UAE as ties mend,” interest as well. “Türkiye sells its famed battle-tested drones to UAE as ties mend,” Daily Sabah/Reuters, ,
September 21, 2022. Other potential buyers include the United Kingdom, Lithuania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, September 21, 2022. Other potential buyers include the United Kingdom, Lithuania, Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Uruguay, and Togo. Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey’s defense industry eyes export expansion as government navigates Uruguay, and Togo. Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey’s defense industry eyes export expansion as government navigates
geopolitical stage,” geopolitical stage,” Defense News, August 8, 2022; “Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drone: Why African states are buying , August 8, 2022; “Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drone: Why African states are buying
them,” them,” BBC News, August 25, 2022. A few countries (including Tunisia, Algeria, and Malaysia) have reportedly , August 25, 2022. A few countries (including Tunisia, Algeria, and Malaysia) have reportedly
purchased or expressed interest in the TAI Anka-S drone, which has a significantly larger flight range than the purchased or expressed interest in the TAI Anka-S drone, which has a significantly larger flight range than the
TB2. TB2.

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Figure A-45. Map of U.S. and NATO Military Presence in Turkey

Sources: Created by CRS using data gathered from the Department of Defense, NATO, and various media Created by CRS using data gathered from the Department of Defense, NATO, and various media
outlets since 2011. outlets since 2011.
Note: All locations are approximate. All locations are approximate.

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Figure A-56. Map of Black Sea Region and Turkish Straits

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Figure A-67. Syria Conflict Map

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Figure A-78. Some Areas of Aegean Dispute

Source: Greek Reporter, June 2022, at https://greekreporter.com/2022/06/09/turkey-challenge-greece-, June 2022, at https://greekreporter.com/2022/06/09/turkey-challenge-greece-
sovereignty-16-maps/. sovereignty-16-maps/.

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Figure A-89. Competing Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean

Source: Main map created by Main map created by The Economist, with slight modifications by CRS, with slight modifications by CRS. Note: As stated elsewhere in this report, in 1983, Turkish Cypriots administering a portion of the island of Cyprus proclaimed that portion to be the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” though no country other than Turkey recognizes it, and U.N. Security Council Resolution 541 (1983) considered the Turkish Cypriot claim to be legally invalid. .

Author Information

Jim Zanotti Jim Zanotti
Clayton Thomas Clayton Thomas
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs

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