Turkey (Türkiye): Major Issues and U.S. Relations

Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief August 5December 22, 2022 , 2022
U.S. relations with Turkey take place within a complicated U.S. relations with Turkey take place within a complicated geopolitical environment and with Turkey in environment and with Turkey in
economic distress. economic distress. Existing U.S.-Turkey tensions that worsened after a failed 2016 coup in U.S.-Turkey tensions that worsened after a failed 2016 coup in
Jim Zanotti
Turkey—including ongoing disagreements over Syrian Kurds and Turkey’s 2019 procurement of Turkey—including ongoing disagreements over Syrian Kurds and Turkey’s 2019 procurement of
Specialist in Middle Specialist in Middle
a Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—have raised questions about the future of a Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—have raised questions about the future of
Eastern Affairs Eastern Affairs
bilateral relations. bilateral relations. Congressional actions have included sanctions legislation and informal holds on U.S. arms sales. Nevertheless, U.S. and Turkish officials emphasize the importance of Nevertheless, U.S. and Turkish officials emphasize the importance of

continued cooperation and Turkey’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization continued cooperation and Turkey’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Clayton Thomas
(NATO). The following are major factors in the U.S.-Turkey relationship.
Specialist in Middle
Specialist in Middle (NATO). Observers voice concerns about the largely authoritarian rule of Turkish President Eastern Affairs Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Major inflation and a sharp decline in Turkey’s currency—perhaps partly due to Erdogan’s unorthodox policy of keeping interest rates relatively low—have led to speculation that Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) might be vulnerable to a coalition of opposition parties in presidential and parliamentary elections planned for June 2023 if competitive elections occur. If a different Turkish president were to win 2023 elections and take power, some domestic and foreign policy changes could be possible. Under President Joe Biden, some existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside cooperation on other foreign policy matters. While deepening ties with Russia in certain areas remain a cause for U.S. concern, Turkey’s emergence as an important mediator between Russia and Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion has arguably increased Turkey’s importance for U.S. policy. U.S.-Turkey relations have improved somewhat due to Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s defense; growing relationships with other countries that seek to counter Russian regional power (including via the export of drone aircraft); and openness to rapprochement with Israel, some Arab states, and Armenia. President Biden has voiced support for sales that would upgrade Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet, but some Members of Congress have expressed opposition. Congressional and executive branch action regarding Turkey and its rivals could have implications for bilateral ties, U.S. political-military options in the region, and Turkey’s strategic orientation and financial well-being. The following are key factors in the U.S.-Turkey relationship. Turkey’s foreign policy orientation. For decades, Turkey has relied closely on the United States and NATO for defense cooperation, European countries for trade and investment, and Russia and Iran for energy imports. Turkish leaders have indicated an interest in reducing their dependence on the West, and that may partly explain their willingness to coordinate some actions with Russia. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with Russia in Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and Armenia-Azerbaijan. Major issues: Russia, Sweden-Finland-NATO, and Greece and Cyprus. In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Turkey faces challenges in balancing its relations with the two countries and managing Black Sea access, with implications for U.S.-Turkey ties. To some extent, Erdogan has sought to reinforce Turkey’s embattled economy by deepening economic and energy ties with Russia. Erdogan might assess that Western sanctions against Russia give Turkey increased leverage in these dealings. At the same time, Turkey has expanded defense cooperation with Ukraine. As of late 2022, Turkey has become an important mediator between Russia and Ukraine on brokering a grain export corridor and other issues. In June, Turkey agreed on a framework deal for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, but Turkey has delayed ratifying their accession while demanding that the two countries help Turkey act against people it considers to be terrorists. Longstanding disputes between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean seas have spiked in 2022 amid greater U.S. strategic cooperation with Greece. Syria: ongoing conflict near borders. Turkish concerns regarding its southern border with Syria has deepened further during Syria’s civil war, due largely to: (1) the flow of nearly four million refugees into Turkey, (2) U.S. efforts to counter the Islamic State by working with Syrian Kurds linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), and (3) the presence of Russian, American, and Iranian forces in Syria that complicate and somewhat constrain Turkish action. Turkey and allied Syrian armed opposition groups have occupied various areas of northern Syria since 2016, and Turkey’s military continues to target Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq. Turkey’s military could undertake another ground operation against the PKK-linked Syrian Kurds, despite reported U.S. and Russian expressions of concern. Congressional Research Service link to page 5 link to page 5 link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page 7 link to page 9 link to page 9 link to page 11 link to page 11 link to page 13 link to page 13 link to page 15 link to page 15 link to page 16 link to page 16 link to page 17 link to page 18 link to page 18 link to page 18 link to page 19 link to page 8 link to page 22 link to page 23 link to page 24 link to page 25 link to page 26 link to page 27 link to page 28 link to page 29 link to page 22 link to page 29Eastern Affairs
Erdogan’s rule and Turkey’s economic challenges. Many observers voice worries about

President Erdogan’s largely authoritarian rule. In late 2021, an ongoing currency crisis
accelerated after he installed a central bank governor who lowered interest rates, generating

major domestic concern about inflation (the official annual figure was nearly 80% in July 2022)
and the country’s future financial stability. Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 2023, and public
opinion polls suggest that Erdogan may be vulnerable to defeat. Some observers debate whether (1) free and fair elections
could take place, (2) opposition parties can attract support across ideological lines, and (3) Erdogan would cede power after
an electoral loss.
Turkey’s strategic orientation. Traditionally, Turkey has relied closely on the United States and NATO for defense
cooperation, European countries for trade and investment, and Russia and Iran for energy imports. Turkey’s ongoing
economic struggles highlight the risks it faces if it jeopardizes these ties. A number of complicated situations in Turkey’s
surrounding region affect its relationships with the United States and other key actors, as Turkey seeks a more independent
foreign policy. These include Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Syria’s civil war (during which more than 3.6 million
refugees have come to Turkey), and other challenges involving Greece, Cyprus, and Libya. Since 2021, Turkey has made
some headway in easing tensions and boosting trade with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
Russia’s war on Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened challenges Turkey faces in balancing relations with
the two countries, with implications for U.S.-Turkey ties. Turkey has not joined sanctions against Russia, with which it has
close trade and energy ties, likely because it hopes to minimize spillover effects to its national security and economy. The
movement of some Russian assets and business operations to Turkey has caused some Western concern about possible
Russian sanctions evasion. However, U.S. and Turkish interests in countering Russian revisionist aims may have converged,
as Turkey has worked in parallel with other NATO countries in strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Turkey has sold
several Turkish-origin Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine as part of deepening bilateral defense cooperation, and the drones
appear to have had some success against Russian military targets. These reported successes have bolstered the TB2’s already
strong reputation from conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh, increasing the demand for Turkish defense exports,
as well as opportunities for Turkey to build broader ties with a number of countries. Under Turkey’s authority to regulate
access to the Black Sea under the 1936 Montreux Convention, it has generally barred Russian and Ukrainian warships from
transiting the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, drawing statements of support from U.S. officials. Turkey also has advised
other countries’ naval vessels to avoid the Straits, leading some observers to raise questions about security and freedom of
navigation for other Black Sea countries, and about NATO’s role in the region.
Swedish/Finnish NATO accession and Syria. In June 2022, Turkey reached agreement with Sweden and Finland to end
Turkey’s delay of their formal NATO accession process. Sweden and Finland agreed to address Turkish objections to
external support for individuals or groups that Turkey considers to be connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish
acronym PKK, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), including a Syrian Kurdish group helping the anti-Islamic State
coalition. However, President Erdogan has warned that Turkey’s final approval of Swedish and Finnish NATO membership
could depend on whether the two countries extradite certain individuals to Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey has publicly discussed
a new military operation in Syria aimed at displacing PKK-linked Syrian Kurds from areas near its border, but U.S. and
Russian concerns may affect whether and how such an operation occurs.
U.S.-Turkey arms sales issues (including F-16s). Turkey’s S-400 acquisition from Russia has had significant repercussions
for U.S.-Turkey relations, leading to Turkey’s removal from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and U.S. sanctions on
Turkey’s defense procurement agency. The continuing U.S.-Turkey impasse over the S-400 or other issues could prevent or
complicate major Western arms sales to Turkey. In April 2022, the Biden Administration reportedly notified Congress
informally of its intent to upgrade Turkey’s aging F-16 fleet, and President Biden expressed support in June for the upgrades
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Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

and new F-16 sales to Turkey, in the context of enhancing Turkey’s military capabilities as a NATO ally at a time of renewed
tension with Russia. Some Members of Congress continue to express opposition to major arms sales to Turkey, with Turkey-
Greece tensions as one factor informing the debate.
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Contents
Introduction and Key U.S.-Turkey Considerations ......................................................................... 1
Domestic Issues ............................................................................................................................... 1
Political Developments Under Erdogan’s Rule ........................................................................ 1
Major Economic Challenges ..................................................................................................... 3
Future2 2023 Elections ........................................................................................................................... 3 Turkish Foreign Policy .......................................................... 4
Turkey’s Strategic Orientation: Foreign Policy and Defense .......................................................... 5
General Assessment .................................................................................................................. 5
U.S./NATO Strategic Considerations Foreign Policy Changes Under a Different President? ............................................................. 7 U.S./NATO Strategic Relationship and Military Presence ........................................................ 7 Russia .............................................................................................................. 6
Russia’s .......................... 9 Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine and Turkish Mediation Efforts ....................................... 9 Turkey-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation ............................................................. 7
Political, Military, and Economic Implications 11 NATO Accession Process for Sweden and Finland .................................................................. 7
Black Sea Access 11 Syria ........................................................................................................................................ 9
NATO Accession Process for Sweden and Finland 12 Background ....................................................................................................................... 12 Further Turkish Military Operations? ............................................................................... 9
13 U.S.-Turkey Arms Sales Issues ..................................................................................................... 14 10
Russian S-400 Acquisition: Removal from F-35 Program and, U.S. Sanctions , and Informal Holds ................................................................... 10
Possible F-16 Sales and Congressional Views .................................................................. 12
Syria14 Possible F-16 Sales and Congressional Views ........................................................................ 15 Figures Figure 1. Turkish Political Party Preferences ................................................................... 14

Figures

............... 4 Figure A-1. Turkey at a Glance ..................................................................................................... 1718
Figure A-2. Bayraktar TB2 DroneTurkey’s Military Presence Abroad ........................................................................... 19 Figure A-3. Countries Interested in Bayraktar TB2 Drone Aircraft ........................................... 18... 20
Figure A-34. Map of U.S. and NATO Military Presence in Turkey ................................................ 1921
Figure A-45. Map of Black Sea Region and Turkish Straits ........................................................... 2022
Figure A-5. Competing Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean6. Syria Conflict Map ...................................................... 21
Figure A-6. Syria Conflict Map ................................................ 23 Figure A-7. Some Areas of Aegean Dispute ...................................................... 22

Appendixes
Appendix A. Maps, Facts, and Figures ..................................... 24 Figure A-8. Competing Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean ...................................................... 17
Appendix B. Relations with Israel and Arab States25 Appendixes Appendix. Maps, Facts, and Figures ............................................................................................. 2318

Contacts
Author Information ........................................................................................................................ 24

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Introduction and Key U.S.-Turkey Considerations
This report provides background information and analysis on key issues affecting U.S.-Turkey This report provides background information and analysis on key issues affecting U.S.-Turkey
relations, including domestic Turkish developments and various foreign policy and defense relations, including domestic Turkish developments and various foreign policy and defense
mattersmatters. U.S. and Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on regional security matters remains mutually important,1 despite Turkey’s S-400 purchase from Russia and a number of other differences between them (such as in Syria and with Greece and Cyprus). .
Under President Joe Biden, some existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside Under President Joe Biden, some existing U.S.-Turkey tensions have continued alongside
cooperation on other matters and opportunities to improve bilateral ties. He has limited his cooperation on other matters and opportunities to improve bilateral ties. He has limited his
meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the sidelines of multilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the sidelines of multilateral
conferences. This approach may reflect a U.S. and European inclination to keep Turkey at arms’ conferences. This approach may reflect a U.S. and European inclination to keep Turkey at arms’
length until after length until after theTurkey’s 2023 elections. 2023 elections.1 Nevertheless2 While continued or deepening ties with Russia in certain areas remain a cause for concern for the Biden Administration and some Members of Congress, Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s , Turkey’s cautious support for Ukraine’s
defense against Russia’s 2022 invasion defense and openness to rapprochement with Israel, some Arab and openness to rapprochement with Israel, some Arab
states, and Armenia have somewhat improved U.S.-Turkey relations.states, and Armenia have somewhat improved U.S.-Turkey relations.23 President Biden has expressed support for selling F-16s to Turkey (see “Possible F-16 Sales and Congressional Views” below). Members of Congress may consider legislative and oversight options regarding Turkey. Congressional and executive branch action regarding Turkey and its rivals could have implications for bilateral ties, U.S. political-military options in the region, and Turkey’s strategic orientation and financial well-being.
For additional information, see CRS Report R41368, For additional information, see CRS Report R41368, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations, by , by
Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. See Figure A-1 for a map and key facts and figures about for a map and key facts and figures about
Turkey. Turkey.
Domestic Issues
Political Developments Under Erdogan’s Rule
President Erdogan has ruled Turkey since becoming prime minister in 2003, and has steadily President Erdogan has ruled Turkey since becoming prime minister in 2003, and has steadily
deepened his control over the country’s populace and institutions. After Erdogan became deepened his control over the country’s populace and institutions. After Erdogan became
president in August 2014 via Turkey’s first-ever popular presidential election, he claimed a president in August 2014 via Turkey’s first-ever popular presidential election, he claimed a
mandate for increasing his power and pursuing a mandate for increasing his power and pursuing a “presidential systempresidential system” of governance, which he of governance, which he
cemented in a 2017 referendum and 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some cemented in a 2017 referendum and 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections. Some
allegations of voter fraud and manipulation surfaced after the referendum and the elections.allegations of voter fraud and manipulation surfaced after the referendum and the elections.3
Since a failed July 2016 coup attempt by elements within the military, Erdogan and his Islamist-
leaning Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) have adopted more nationalistic
domestic and foreign policy approaches, partly because of their reliance on parliamentary support
from the Nationalist Action Party (Turkish acronym MHP).
Many observers describe Erdogan as a polarizing figure, and elections have reflected roughly
equal portions of the country supporting and opposing his rule.4 The AKP won the largest share of
votes in 2019 local elections, but lost some key municipalities, including Istanbul, to candidates
from the secular-leaning Republican People’s Party (Turkish acronym CHP).

14 1 State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,” May 18, 2022. 2 Sinem Adar, “Perceptions in Turkey about the War in Ukraine,” Sinem Adar, “Perceptions in Turkey about the War in Ukraine,” SWP Comment (German Institute for International (German Institute for International
and Security Affairs and Security Affairs (SWP)[SWP]), April 6, 2022. ), April 6, 2022.
23 Alper Coskun, “Making the New U.S.-Turkey Strategic Mechanism Meaningful,” Carnegie Endowment for Alper Coskun, “Making the New U.S.-Turkey Strategic Mechanism Meaningful,” Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, May 12, 2022; Kali Robinson, “Turkey’s Growing Foreign Policy Ambitions,” Council on Foreign International Peace, May 12, 2022; Kali Robinson, “Turkey’s Growing Foreign Policy Ambitions,” Council on Foreign
Relations, Relations, May 19August 24, 2022. , 2022.
34 Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Limited Referendum Observation Mission Final Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Limited Referendum Observation Mission Final
Report, Turkey, April 16, 2017 (published June 22, 2017); OSCE, International Election Observation Mission, Report, Turkey, April 16, 2017 (published June 22, 2017); OSCE, International Election Observation Mission,
Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions, Turkey, Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, June 24, Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions, Turkey, Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, June 24,
2018 (published June 25, 2018). 2018 (published June 25, 2018).
4 Kemal Kirisci and Berk Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two
Decades in Power?” Just Security, November 22, 2021.
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Congressional Research Service 1 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Since a failed July 2016 coup attempt by elements within the military, Erdogan and his Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (Turkish acronym AKP) have adopted more nationalistic domestic and foreign policy approaches, perhaps partly because of their reliance on parliamentary support from the Nationalist Action Party (Turkish acronym MHP). Many observers describe Erdogan as a polarizing figure, and elections have reflected roughly equal portions of the country supporting and opposing his rule.5 The AKP won the largest share of votes in 2019 local elections, but lost some key municipalities, including Istanbul, to candidates from the secular-leaning Republican People’s Party (Turkish acronym CHP). U.S. and European Union (EU) officials have expressed a number of concerns about authoritarian U.S. and European Union (EU) officials have expressed a number of concerns about authoritarian
governance and erosion of rule of law and civil liberties in Turkey.governance and erosion of rule of law and civil liberties in Turkey.56 In response to the 2016 coup In response to the 2016 coup
attempt, the government detained tens of thousands of its citizens, enacted sweeping changes to attempt, the government detained tens of thousands of its citizens, enacted sweeping changes to
military and civilian agencies, and took over or closed various businesses, schools, and media military and civilian agencies, and took over or closed various businesses, schools, and media
outlets.outlets.67 Erdogan has argued, with considerable popular support, that the Fethullah Gulen Erdogan has argued, with considerable popular support, that the Fethullah Gulen
movement orchestrated the coup attempt, in which more than 250 people were killed and movement orchestrated the coup attempt, in which more than 250 people were killed and
thousands were injured.thousands were injured.78 Forces and citizen groups loyal to the government ultimately thwarted Forces and citizen groups loyal to the government ultimately thwarted
the apparent efforts of some renegade military personnel (which included airstrikes targeting the apparent efforts of some renegade military personnel (which included airstrikes targeting
Turkey’s presidential palace and parliament building) to seize state control. Some leading Turkey’s presidential palace and parliament building) to seize state control. Some leading
opposition figures in Turkey have accused Erdogan of planning, controlling, and/or using the opposition figures in Turkey have accused Erdogan of planning, controlling, and/or using the
failed coup to suppress dissent and consolidate power.failed coup to suppress dissent and consolidate power.8
In April 2022, a Turkish court sentenced civil society figure Osman Kavala to life imprisonment
after convicting him of conspiring against the government. The European Court of Human Rights
(ECHR), whose rulings are supposed to be binding for Turkey due to its Council of Europe
membership, had demanded Kavala’s release in 2019. The State Department spokesperson said
that Kavala’s “unjust conviction is inconsistent with respect for human rights, fundamental
freedoms, and the rule of law,” while also criticizing “continued judicial harassment of civil
society, media, political and business leaders in Turkey, including through prolonged pretrial
detention, overly broad claims of support for terrorism, and criminal insult cases.”9 In July, the
ECHR ordered Turkey to release Kavala and pay him damages. If Turkey does not comply, it
could have its voting rights and membership in the Council of Europe suspended.10
With national elections scheduled for 2023 (discussed below), the Erdogan government has
pursued a Constitutional Court ruling to close down the Kurdish-oriented Peoples’ Democratic
Party (Turkish acronym HDP), the third largest party in Turkey’s parliament. The government
claims that the HDP has ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-
designated terrorist organization).11 The State Department has said that banning the HDP “would
unduly subvert the will of Turkish voters, further undermine democracy in Turkey, and deny
millions of Turkish citizens their chosen representation.”12 How Kurds who feel politically
marginalized might respond to the HDP’s ban is unclear. Major violence between Turkish
authorities and PKK militants—which has taken place on and off since the 1980s—wracked

5 State Department, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2021, Turkey; European Commission, Turkey
2021 Report, October 19, 2021.
6 Ibid.
79 Meanwhile, Turkish authorities have continued their on-and-off efforts to counter militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdish acronym PKK, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization). These efforts include Turkish military operations targeting PKK and PKK-aligned personnel in Iraq and Syria.10 Major Economic Challenges Ongoing economic problems in Turkey have considerably worsened in 2022 as its currency, the lira, has depreciated in value around 28% against the U.S. dollar as of December, after declining by nearly 45% in 2021. Official annual inflation climbed to nearly 85% for October—a level not seen in Turkey since the 1990s.11 Some unofficial estimates have suggested that actual inflation may be well over 100%.12 Many analysts link the spike in inflation to the Turkish central bank’s 5 Kemal Kirisci and Berk Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two Decades in Power?” Just Security, November 22, 2021. 6 State Department, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2021, Turkey; Turkey; European Commission, Turkiye 2022 Report, October 6, 2022. 7 Ibid; European Commission, Turkey 2021 Report, October 19, 2021. 8 Gareth Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15: Erdogan’s New Turkey and the Myth of Its Immaculate Conception,” Gareth Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15: Erdogan’s New Turkey and the Myth of Its Immaculate Conception,”
Turkey Analyst, July 15, 2021; Dorian Jones, “Turkey Looks Back at Failed Coup,” , July 15, 2021; Dorian Jones, “Turkey Looks Back at Failed Coup,” Voice of America, July 15, 2019. , July 15, 2019.
Partly because of Gulen’s residence in the United States, many Turks reportedly subscribe to conspiracy theories about Partly because of Gulen’s residence in the United States, many Turks reportedly subscribe to conspiracy theories about
possible U.S. involvement. Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15.” For more possible U.S. involvement. Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15.” For more information on Gulen, see CRS In Focus IF10444, on Gulen, see CRS In Focus IF10444,
Fethullah Gulen, Turkey, and the United States: A Reference, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. , by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.
89 Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15”; “Turkey coup: Top officers given life terms in mass trial,” Jenkins, “Five Years After July 15”; “Turkey coup: Top officers given life terms in mass trial,” BBC News, April 7, , April 7,
2021. 2021.
9 State Department, “Turkey’s Conviction of Osman Kavala,” April 25, 2022.
10 Nazlan Ertan, “Europe’s top court reprimands Turkey for jailing philanthropist,” Al-Monitor, July 11, 2022.
11 Alex McDonald, “Threat to close pro-Kurdish party echoes long tradition in Turkey’s politics,” Middle East Eye,
March 20, 2021.
12 State Department, “Actions in Turkey’s Parliament,” March 17, 2021.
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Turkey’s mostly Kurdish southeast in 2015 and 2016, and the Turkish military has continued
targeting PKK and PKK-aligned personnel in Iraq and Syria.13
Major Economic Challenges
Ongoing economic problems in Turkey have considerably worsened in the past year as its
currency, the lira, depreciated in value nearly 45% against the U.S. dollar in 2021 and has
continued its slide during 2022. Official annual inflation climbed to nearly 80% for July—a level
not seen in Turkey since the 1990s—with annual inflation for producers estimated at 145% in that
same month.14 One unofficial estimate earlier in the summer put consumer inflation at 160%.15
Many analysts link the spike in inflation to the Turkish central bank’s reduction10 Berkay Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux,” International Crisis Group, February 18, 2022. 11 Beril Akman, “Turkey slashes interest rate in line with Erdogan’s demand,” Bloomberg, November 24, 2022; “Yearly inflation in Turkey rises to new 24-year high of 85%,” Associated Press, November 3, 2022. 12 Mustafa Sonmez, “Turkish inflation hits 85.5% as doubts linger over official data,” Al-Monitor, November 3, 2022. Congressional Research Service 2 link to page 15 link to page 8 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief repeated reductions of its key interest of its key interest
rate from 19% to 14% between September and Decemberrate since September 2021, with additional inflationary 2021, with additional inflationary
pressure possibly coming from external events such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and interest rate pressure possibly coming from external events such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and interest rate
hikes in the United States and other major economies.hikes in the United States and other major economies.1613 The lira has been trending downward for The lira has been trending downward for
more than a decade, with its decline more than a decade, with its decline drivenprobably driven in part by broader concerns about Turkey’s rule of law and by broader concerns about Turkey’s rule of law and
economy.economy.1714
Throughout this time, President Erdogan has assertively challenged the conventional economic Throughout this time, President Erdogan has assertively challenged the conventional economic
theory that higher interest rates stem inflation, attract foreign capital, and support the value of the theory that higher interest rates stem inflation, attract foreign capital, and support the value of the
currency. In replacing Turkey’s central bank governor and finance minister in 2021, Erdogan currency. In replacing Turkey’s central bank governor and finance minister in 2021, Erdogan
established greater control over Turkish fiscal and monetary policy. In public statements, Erdogan established greater control over Turkish fiscal and monetary policy. In public statements, Erdogan
has argued that lower interest rates boost production, employment, and exports.has argued that lower interest rates boost production, employment, and exports.1815 Erdogan also Erdogan also
has criticized high interest rates as contrary to Islamic teachings and as exacerbating the gap has criticized high interest rates as contrary to Islamic teachings and as exacerbating the gap
between rich and poor.between rich and poor.1916
The currency and inflation crisis in Turkey has dramatically affected consumers’ cost of living The currency and inflation crisis in Turkey has dramatically affected consumers’ cost of living
and the cost of international borrowing (mostly conducted in U.S. dollars) for banks and private and the cost of international borrowing (mostly conducted in U.S. dollars) for banks and private
sector companies.sector companies.20 The government has sought to stop or reverse inflation by providing tax cuts The government has sought to stop or reverse inflation by providing tax cuts, minimum wage increases,
and subsidies for basic expensesand subsidies for basic expenses and, along with borrowing incentives for borrowing incentives for banks that hold liras.17 Turkey also has sought currency swaps from some Arab Gulf states, and has benefitted from Russian-origin inflows that contribute to U.S. warnings about potential sanctions evasion (see “Turkey-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation” below).18 He has publicly rejected calls to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a financial assistance package. 2023 Elections Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are planned for June 2023. Largely in the context of Turkey’s economic problems discussed above, public opinion polls have fueled speculation that Erdogan and the AKP-MHP parliamentary coalition might be vulnerable.19 In one late 2022 poll (see Figure 1), three parties from an opposition coalition (CHP-Iyi-DEVA) outperformed AKP-MHP by a 36%-32% margin. In the same poll, Erdogan’s approval rating was 38%, the percentage who said things in Turkey were headed in the wrong direction was 59%, and the percentage who said the economy was the most important issue was 67%.20 13banks that hold liras.21 According
to one source, by December 2021 almost 65% of Turkish bank deposits were in foreign
currencies22—up from around 41% at the time of the 2016 coup attempt.23 In that month, the
government announced a plan to insure lira-denominated bank accounts against currency

13 Berkay Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux,” International Crisis Group, February
18, 2022.
14 “Turkey’s inflation jumped to 24-year high of 79.6 percent in July,” Al Jazeera, August 3, 2022.
15 “The price is wrong,” Economist, July 14, 2022.
16 Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Rewrites All Inflation Forecasts but Won’t Budge on Rates,” Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Rewrites All Inflation Forecasts but Won’t Budge on Rates,” Bloomberg, April , April
28, 2022. 28, 2022.
1714 Mikolaj Rogalewicz, “Economic crisis in Turkey,” Mikolaj Rogalewicz, “Economic crisis in Turkey,” Warsaw Institute Review, April 25, 2022. , April 25, 2022.
1815 “EXPLAINER: Turkey’s Currency Is Crashing. What’s the Impact?” “EXPLAINER: Turkey’s Currency Is Crashing. What’s the Impact?” Associated Press, December 3, 2021; Carlotta , December 3, 2021; Carlotta
Gall, “Keeping His Own Counsel on Turkey’s Economy,” Gall, “Keeping His Own Counsel on Turkey’s Economy,” New York Times, December 11, 2021. , December 11, 2021.
1916 “Turkey will keep lowering interest rates: Erdogan,” “Turkey will keep lowering interest rates: Erdogan,” Daily Sabah, June 6, 2022; Mustafa Akyol, “How Erdogan’s , June 6, 2022; Mustafa Akyol, “How Erdogan’s
Pseudoscience Is Ruining the Turkish Economy,” Cato Institute, December 3, 2021. Pseudoscience Is Ruining the Turkish Economy,” Cato Institute, December 3, 2021.
20 “EXPLAINER: Turkey’s Currency Is Crashing. What’s the Impact?” Associated Press.
21 “Turkey’s inflation surges to 70%, putting Erdogan in bind,” Reuters, May 5, 2022; Balci and 17 Ben Hubbard, “Skyrocketing Prices in Turkey Hurt Families and Tarnish Erdogan,” New York Times, December 5, 2022; Baris Balci and Inci Ozbek, “Turkey Ozbek, “Turkey
Rewrites All Inflation ForecastsRewrites All Inflation Forecasts.”
22 Mustafa Sonmez, “Turkish lira sinks further with Erdogan’s latest rate cut,” Al-Monitor, December 16, 2021.
23 Capital Economics graphic, from Caitlin Ostroff, “Investors Fear Turkish Lira Has Further to Fall,” Wall Street
Journal, December 7, 2021.
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Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

depreciation, in apparent coordination with a significant state-backed market intervention.24 It is
unclear whether the government’s credit and domestic savers’ confidence will be sufficient to
prevent future financial panic.25
Future Elections
Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place by June 2023.
Largely in the context of Turkey’s economic problems, public opinion polls suggest that support
for Erdogan and the AKP is at a historic low.26 Observers speculate about whether Erdogan and
the existing AKP-MHP parliamentary coalition can remain in power.27 ,” Bloomberg, April 28, 2022. 18 Laura Pitel “Turkey finance minister defends economic links with Russia,” Financial Times, October 25, 2022; Murat Kubilay, “As liquidity problems worsen, Turkey turns to capital controls and informal FX flows,” Middle East Institute, November 7, 2022. 19 Hubbard, “Skyrocketing Prices in Turkey Hurt Families and Tarnish Erdogan”; “Polls indicate close race between rival blocs, yet people increasingly think Erdoğan will win,” BIA News, October 12, 2022; Berk Esen, “The opposition alliance in Turkey: A viable alternative to Erdogan?” SWP Comment, August 2022. 20 “Al-Monitor/Premise poll finds tight race for Erdogan in Turkey's elections,” Al-Monitor, December 7, 2022. Congressional Research Service 3 link to page 11 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure 1. Turkish Political Party Preferences (as of late 2022) How Kurdish citizens of How Kurdish citizens of
Turkey (numbering nearly 20% of the population) voteTurkey (numbering nearly 20% of the population) vote—with or without the HDP’s
participation— could impact the outcome.could impact the outcome.2821 Additionally, some observers debate whether (1) free Additionally, some observers debate whether (1) free
and fair elections could take place under Erdogan,and fair elections could take place under Erdogan,2922 (2) opposition parties can convince potential (2) opposition parties can convince potential
swing voters to side with them despite their personal or ideological affinity for Erdogan,swing voters to side with them despite their personal or ideological affinity for Erdogan,3023 or (3) or (3)
Erdogan would cede power after an electoral defeat.Erdogan would cede power after an electoral defeat.3124
The CHP and some other opposition parties have agreed on some steps toward a joint platform The CHP and some other opposition parties have agreed on some steps toward a joint platform
focused on focused on strengthening legislative and judicial checks on executive power.32returning Turkey to the parliamentary system that existed before the 2018 election, largely as a means of limiting executive power.25 However, it However, it
remains unclear which opposition candidate will challenge Erdogan for president: CHP party remains unclear which opposition candidate will challenge Erdogan for president: CHP party
leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu (from the Alevi religious minority), or either of the two mayors who leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu (from the Alevi religious minority), or either of the two mayors who
won control of Istanbul and Ankara for the party in 2019 (Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, won control of Istanbul and Ankara for the party in 2019 (Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas,
respectively) and generally poll higher respectively) and generally poll higher than Kilicdaroglu.26 Opposition figures have criticized the Erdogan government’s approach to a range of foreign and domestic policy issues and promised to make changes (see also “Foreign 21 Mesut Yegen, “Erdogan and the Turkish Opposition Revisit the Kurdish Question,” SWP Comment, April 2022. 22 Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, “It Is Not Too Early to Think About Political Change in Turkey,” German Marshall Fund of the United States, January 10, 2022; Kirisci and Esen, “Might the Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two Decades in Power?” 23 Ozer Sencar of Metropoll, in Laura Pitel, “Will the ailing Turkish economy bring Erdogan down?” Financial Times, November 1, 2021. 24 Unnamed Western diplomat quoted in Laura Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan: Turkey’s opposition searches for a champion,” Financial Times, May 5, 2022. 25 Andrew Wilks, “Turkish opposition forms plan to oust Erdogan, restore parliament’s power,” Al-Monitor, February 15, 2022. 26 Ibid.; Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan.” Congressional Research Service 4 link to page 11 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Policy Changes Under a Different President?”).27 Imamoglu’s candidacy may be jeopardized by a criminal conviction (see text box).28 Despite Erdogan’s potential vulnerability, some observers have expressed doubt about the opposition coalition’s prospects, citing ideological differences between its constituent parties.29 Imamoglu’s Criminal Case and Potential Political Ban Istanbul mayor and CHP member Ekrem Imamoglu could face a ban from political activity because of a December 2022 criminal conviction. The charge of insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council stemmed from a remark that Imamoglu said he made about the annul ed March 2019 election (discussed above) in response to an insult against him from Turkey’s interior minister.30 The court sentenced Imamoglu to jail and banned him from political activity for two years and seven months, but both penalties are subject to appeal, and the timing of the appellate process is unclear.31 In the meantime, Imamoglu continues to serve as mayor and engage politically. Imamoglu and other opposition figures denounced the verdict and judicial process as politicized and a sign of government attempts to sideline Erdogan’s potential electoral opponents.32 In response to the December court ruling, a State Department statement said: His [Imamoglu’s] conviction is inconsistent with respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law.. . The people of Turkey deserve the ability to exercise their human rights and fundamental freedoms without fear of retribution. .. We urge the government to cease prosecutions under criminal “insult” laws, and to respect the rights and freedoms of all Turkish citizens, including by ensuring an open environment for public debate.33 Erdogan controls whether to initiate elections before June 2023 and has thus far stated his unwillingness to do so. Rather than compel elections in Turkey, domestic instability could lead Erdogan’s cabinet to initiate a state of emergency with the potential to delay elections.34 Turkish Foreign Policy General Assessment Turkey’s strategic orientation, or how it relates to and balances between the West and other global and regional powers,than Kilicdaroglu.33 In a sign to some of government
attempts to sideline opponents, Istanbul mayor Imamoglu could face a ban from political activity
because of criminal charges accusing him of insulting members of Turkey’s Supreme Electoral
Council in 2019.34
Erdogan controls whether to initiate elections before June 2023 and has thus far stated his
unwillingness to do so. Rather than compel elections in Turkey, domestic instability could lead
Erdogan’s cabinet to initiate a state of emergency with the potential to delay elections.35
How closely U.S. and other international actors engage Erdogan’s government ahead of elections
could depend on perceptions of his popular legitimacy, likely staying power, and the extent to
which a successor might change his policies in light of geopolitical and domestic considerations.

24 “Turkish lira erodes last week’s gains,” Reuters, December 28, 2021.
25 “Inflation nation,” Economist, July 21, 2022.
26 Laura Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan: Turkey’s opposition searches for a champion,” Financial Times, May 5, 2022.
27 Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, “It Is Not Too Early to Think About Political Change in Turkey,” German Marshall Fund of
the United States, January 10, 2022.
28 Mesut Yegen, “Erdogan and the Turkish Opposition Revisit the Kurdish Question,” SWP Comment (German
Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)), April 2022.
29 Unluhisarcikli, “It Is Not Too Early to Think About Political Change in Turkey”; Kirisci and Esen, “Might the
Turkish Electorate Be Ready to Say Goodbye to Erdoğan After Two Decades in Power?”
30 Ozer Sencar of Metropoll, in Laura Pitel, “Will the ailing Turkish economy bring Erdogan down?” Financial Times,
November 1, 2021.
31 Unnamed Western diplomat quoted in Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan.”
32 Andrew Wilks, “Turkish opposition forms plan to oust Erdogan, restore parliament’s power,” Al-Monitor, February
15, 2022.
33 Ibid.; Pitel, “Defeating Erdogan.”
34 Andrew Wilks, “Cases against opposition politicians mount ahead of Turkish elections,” Al-Monitor, June 2, 2022.
35 “Professor says Turkey may declare state of emergency following economic crisis,” Duvar English, December 14,
2021.
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link to page 27 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

Turkey’s Strategic Orientation: Foreign Policy and
Defense
General Assessment
Turkey’s strategic orientation is a major consideration for the United States. Trends in Turkey’s is a major consideration for the United States. Trends in Turkey’s
relations with the United States and other countries reflect changes to this orientation, as Turkey relations with the United States and other countries reflect changes to this orientation, as Turkey
has sought greater independence of action as a regional power within a more multipolar global has sought greater independence of action as a regional power within a more multipolar global
system. Turkish leaders’ interest in reducing their dependence on the West for defense and system. Turkish leaders’ interest in reducing their dependence on the West for defense and
discouraging discouraging 27 “Türkiye’s CHP forms technocratic committee to advise the govt,” Yetkin Report, December 4, 2022; Berk Esen, “Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey,” SWP Comment, September 2022; Alper Coskun and Sinan Ulgen, “Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2022. 28 Gonca Tokyol, “Wielding Istanbul’s clout, Kaftancioglu and the CHP take aim at 2023 elections,” Turkey recap (Substack), November 16, 2022. 29 James Ryan, “The path ahead in Turkey’s upcoming electoral campaign,” War on the Rocks, November 10, 2022. 30 “Turkish court orders jail, political ban for Erdogan rival,” Reuters, December 14, 2022; Andrew Wilks, “Cases against opposition politicians mount ahead of Turkish elections,” Al-Monitor, June 2, 2022. 31 Ben Hubbard and Safak Timur, “Conviction May Sideline Rival of Turkish Leader,” New York Times, December 15, 2022. 32 Ibid; Yusuf Selman Inanc, “Turkey: Istanbul mayor given two-year jail sentence and ‘political ban,’” Middle East Eye, December 14, 2022. 33 State Department, “Turkey’s Conviction and Sentencing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu,” December 15, 2022. 34 “Professor says Turkey may declare state of emergency following economic crisis,” Duvar English, December 14, 2021. Congressional Research Service 5 link to page 23 link to page 24 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Western influence over their domestic politics may partly explain their willingness Western influence over their domestic politics may partly explain their willingness
to coordinate some actions with Russia, such as in Syria and with Turkey’s purchase of a Russian to coordinate some actions with Russia, such as in Syria and with Turkey’s purchase of a Russian
S-400 surface-to-air defense system. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with S-400 surface-to-air defense system. Nevertheless, Turkey retains significant differences with
Russia—with which it has a long history of discord—including in political and military crises Russia—with which it has a long history of discord—including in political and military crises
involving Syria, involving Syria, Ukraine, Libya, and Armenia-AzerbaijanLibya, and Nagorno-Karabakh (a region disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan). .
In recent years, Turkey has involved its military in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, and In recent years, Turkey has involved its military in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean, and
South Caucasus in a way that has affected its relationships with the United States and other key South Caucasus in a way that has affected its relationships with the United States and other key
actorsactors. (Figure A-2). Turkey appears to be building regional relationships partly due to its export of the popular Bayraktar TB2 drone (see Figure A-3), but some observers have raised concerns that “drone diplomacy” could possibly enable human rights violations or lead to other adverse consequences for Turkey’s interests or those of its allies and partners.35 U.S. officials have sometimes encouraged cooperation among other allies and partners to U.S. officials have sometimes encouraged cooperation among other allies and partners to
counter Turkish actions.36counter Turkish actions.36 In the past year, however, Turkey has taken some steps to ease tensions In the past year, however, Turkey has taken some steps to ease tensions
with major U.S. partners in the Middle East—namely Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi with major U.S. partners in the Middle East—namely Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi
Arabia (see Appendix B).Arabia.37 U.S. and Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on U.S. and Turkish officials maintain that bilateral cooperation on
regional security matters remains mutually important.regional security matters remains mutually important.3738
Turkish leaders appear to compartmentalize their partnerships and rivalries with other influential Turkish leaders appear to compartmentalize their partnerships and rivalries with other influential
countries as each situation dictates, partly in an attempt to reduce Turkey’s dependence on these countries as each situation dictates, partly in an attempt to reduce Turkey’s dependence on these
actors and maintain its leverage with them.actors and maintain its leverage with them.38 Traditionally39 For decades, Turkey has relied closely on the , Turkey has relied closely on the
United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for defense cooperation, United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for defense cooperation,
European countries for trade and investment (including a customs union with the EU since the European countries for trade and investment (including a customs union with the EU since the
late 1990s), and Russia and Iran for energy imports.late 1990s), and Russia and Iran for energy imports. Without a means of global power projection Without a means of global power projection
or major natural resource wealth, Turkey’s military strength and economic well-being appear to or major natural resource wealth, Turkey’s military strength and economic well-being appear to
remain largely dependent on these traditional relationships. Turkey’s ongoing economic struggles remain largely dependent on these traditional relationships. Turkey’s ongoing economic struggles
(discussed above) highlight the risks it faces (discussed above) highlight the risks it faces if it jeopardizes these ties.40 Turkey’s future foreign policy course could depend partly on the degree to which Turkish leaders feel constrained by their traditional security and economic relationships with Western powers, and how willing they are to risk tensions or breaks in those relationships while building other global relationships. 35 Salem Solomon, “Ethiopia Ups Use of Drone Strikes in Conflict Prompting Worries About Civilian Toll,” Voice of America, February 2, 2022; Fehim Tastekin, “Are Turkish drones complicating disputes in Central Asia?” Al-Monitor, September 26, 2022; Federico Borsari, “Turkey’s drone diplomacy: Lessons for Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, January 31, 2022; Alper Coskun, “Strengthening Turkish Policy on Drone Exports,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 18, 2022. 36 See, for example, Richard Outzen, “What Is Turkey Thinking in the Eastern Med?” Hoover Institution, December 7, 2021. 37 See CRS Report R41368, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. 38if it jeopardizes these ties.39
Turkey’s compartmentalized approach may to some extent reflect President Erdogan’s efforts to
maintain power domestically. Because Erdogan’s control over parliament depends on the AKP’s
coalition with the more traditionally nationalist MHP, efforts to preserve support from core
constituencies may imbue Turkish policy with a nationalistic tenor. A largely nationalistic foreign
policy also has precedent from before Turkey’s Cold War alignment with the West.40 Turkey’s
history as both a regional power and an object of great power aggression contributes to wide

36 Ahmed Qandil, “East Med Gas Forum turns into regional organisation, in blow to Turkey,” Arab Weekly, September
23, 2020.
37 State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,” State Department, “Joint Statement on the Meeting of Secretary Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,”
May 18, 2022. May 18, 2022.
3839 Nur Ozcan Erbay, “Ankara to use compartmentalization in managing relations,” Nur Ozcan Erbay, “Ankara to use compartmentalization in managing relations,” Daily Sabah, June 24, 2021; , June 24, 2021;
Stephen J. Flanagan et al., Stephen J. Flanagan et al., Turkey’s Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the
U.S. Army, RAND Corporation, 2020. , RAND Corporation, 2020.
3940 Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay, “The Third Age of Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy,” Center for European Policy Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay, “The Third Age of Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy,” Center for European Policy
Analysis, February 17, 2022. Analysis, February 17, 2022.
40 William Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy since 1774, New York: Routledge, 2013 (3rd edition).
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link to page 22 6 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Foreign Policy Changes Under a Different President? In anticipation of 2023 elections, observers have speculated about how a new president’s foreign policy (including domestic policy with clear foreign policy ramifications) might differ from Erdogan’s if an opposition candidate wins.41 Because of widespread nationalistic sentiment among Turkey’s population and most of its political parties, a different president may have difficulty changing Turkish policies on some of the following matters of core security concern: Syria and Iraq (Kurdish militancy, refugee issues, and other countries’ influence), Greece and Cyprus (Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean disputes), and Russia and Ukraine (conflict and its regional and global consequences). However, a different president may be more likely to alter certain ongoing policies that may be more reflective of Erdogan’s or the AKP’s preferences than of broad national consensus. Such changes may include (1) providing more flexibility to central bankers and other officials on monetary policy decisions and other measures to address Turkey’s economic problems, (2) giving greater consideration to European Court of Human Rights rulings, and (3) reducing Turkish support for Sunni Islamist groups like Hamas (a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and Syrian armed opposition factions. Some Turkish opposition parties’ foreign policy statements suggest that a different president might be less willing than Erdogan to say and do things that risk harming relationships with the United States and European countries.42 Thus, despite the difficulties that may surround changing some policies (as mentioned above), a different Turkish president could conceivably be less inclined toward implementing those policies in a way that might worsen relations with Western states, such as by pursuing additional arms purchases from Russia or new military operations in northern Syria or the Aegean/Eastern Mediterranean area. However, if a new, untested Turkish government feels pressure to signal its strength to various international actors or to placate multiple domestic constituencies within a coalition, that president may strive to match Erdogan’s reputation for assertiveness. Conversely, a president facing lack of consensus within a coalition might become more passive on foreign policy. U.S. steps to help a potential new Turkish government—whether on arms sales, sanctions, the economy, or other matters—could encourage an improvement in bilateral relations. If, however, Turkish leaders or domestic audiences assess that any such steps are likely to bind future Turkish actions to U.S. interests, those concerns could limit a new Turkish government’s willingness to embrace them. U.S./NATO Strategic Relationship and Military Presence The United States has valued Turkey’s geopolitical importance to and military strength within the NATO alliance, while viewing Turkey’s NATO membership as helping anchor Turkey to the West. For Turkey, NATO’s traditional importance has been to mitigate Turkish concerns about encroachment by neighbors, such as the Soviet Union’s aggressive post-World War II posturing leading up to the Cold War. In more recent or ongoing arenas of conflict like Ukraine and Syria, 41 Alan Makovsky, “Turkey’s Hinge Election,” Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, November 2022; Coskun and Ulgen, “Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy.” 42 Coskun and Ulgen, “Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy.” Congressional Research Service 7 link to page 25 link to page 26 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Turkey’s possible interest in countering Russian objectives may be partly motivating its military operations and arms exports.43 Turkey’s location near several conflict areas has made the continuing availability of its territory for the stationing and transport of arms, cargo, and personnel valuable for the United States and NATO. In addition to Incirlik Air Base near the southern Turkish city of Adana, other key U.S./NATO sites include an early warning missile defense radar in eastern Turkey and a NATO ground forces command in Izmir (see Figure A-4). Turkey also controls access to and from the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits (the Straits—see Figure A-5). Tensions between Turkey and other NATO members have fueled internal U.S./NATO discussions about the continued use of Turkish bases. As a result of the tensions and questions about the safety and utility of Turkish territory for U.S. and NATO assets, some observers have advocated exploring alternative basing arrangements in the region.44 Some reports suggest that expanded or potentially expanded U.S. military presences in places such as Greece, Cyprus, and Jordan might be connected with concerns about Turkey.45 In March 2022 congressional hearing testimony, Turkey expert and former congressional committee staff member Alan Makovsky said that while the United States should make efforts to keep Turkey in the “Western camp,” Turkish “equivocation in recent years” justifies the United States building and expanding military facilities in Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece to “hedge its bets.”46 U.S. Military Presence in Greece Turkish officials have complained about a significant new U.S. military presence at the Greek port of Alexandroupoli (alt. Alexandroupolis), located around 10-15 miles from the Turkish border.47 U.S. officials have explained that they are using the port as a transit hub to send equipment to allies and partners in the region given security concerns regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.48 Some reports speculate about U.S.-Greece discussions regarding the possibility of basing U.S. warships in Alexandropouli after the port’s planned expansion.49 In the March 2022 congressional hearing testimony mentioned above, Alan Makovsky referenced U.S.-Greece defense cooperation agreements from 2019 and 2021, and said that having facilities at Alexandroupoli allows NATO to bypass logjams or closures of the Straits to transport troops and materiel overland to allies and partners.50 After Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in October 2022 that the United States no longer maintains a 43 Dimitar Bechev, “Russia, Turkey and the Spectre of Regional Instability,” Al Sharq Strategic Research, April 13, 2022; Prothero, “Turkey’s Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year.” 44 See, for example, Xander Snyder, “Beyond Incirlik,” Geopolitical Futures, April 19, 2019. 45 “Pentagon pushes back on claim that US to leave Turkey’s Incirlik base,” Al-Monitor, September 16, 2020; Joseph Trevithick, “Docs Show US to Massively Expand Footprint at Jordanian Air Base amid Spats with Turkey, Iraq,” The Drive, January 14, 2019. 46 Prepared testimony of Alan Makovsky, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, “Opportunities and Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean: Examining U.S. Interests and Regional Cooperation,” House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and Global Counterterrorism; and Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber, March 31, 2022, available at https://www.americanprogress.org/article/opportunities-and-challenges-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-examining-u-s-interests-and-regional-cooperation/. 47 Niki Kitsantonis and Anatoly Kurmanaev, “Sleepy Greek Port Turns into Pivotal Transit Point for American Military,” New York Times, August 19, 2022. 48 Ibid; Department of Defense News, “Strategic Port Access Aids Support to Ukraine, Austin Tells Greek Defense Minister,” July 18, 2022. 49 Ahmet Gencturk, “US wants to turn Greek port into alternative to Turkish Straits, claims Greek media,” Anadolu Agency, September 20, 2022; “A sleepy Greek port has become vital to the war in Ukraine,” Economist, July 21, 2022. 50 Prepared testimony of Alan Makovsky, “Opportunities and Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean: Examining U.S. Interests and Regional Cooperation.” Congressional Research Service 8 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief balanced approach in the Aegean,51 U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake released a statement saying that there has been no shift in U.S. security posture to favor Turkey or Greece, and that the NATO allies’ col ective efforts are focused on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.52 Russia Turkey’s relations with Russia feature elements of cooperation and competition. Turkey has made a number of foreign policy moves since 2016 toward closer ties with Russia. These moves could be motivated by a combination of factors, including Turkey’s effort to reduce dependence on the West, economic opportunism, and chances to increase its regional influence at Russia’s expense. Turkey also has moved closer to a number of countries surrounding Russia—including Ukraine and Poland—likely in part as a counterweight to Russian regional power.53 Russia’s 2022 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

domestic popularity for nationalistic political actions and discourse, as well as sympathy for
Erdogan’s “neo-Ottoman” narrative of restoring Turkish regional prestige.
Turkish Hard Power and “Drone Diplomacy”
During Erdogan’s first decade as prime minister (2003-2012), Turkey’s main approach in its surrounding region
(with the exception of its long-running security operations against the PKK in southeastern Turkey and northern
Iraq) was to project political and economic influence, or “soft power,” backed by diplomacy and military
deterrence. As regional unrest increased near Turkey’s borders with the onset of conflict in Syria, however,
Turkey’s approach shifted dramatically in light of newly perceived threats. This was especial y the case after
Erdogan (elected president in 2014) began courting Turkish nationalist constituencies in 2015 and consolidating
power fol owing the July 2016 coup attempt.
Under this modified approach, Turkey has relied more on hard power to affect regional outcomes. Specifically,
Turkey has focused on a relatively low-cost method of using armed drone aircraft and/or proxy forces
(particularly Syrian fighters who oppose the Syrian government and otherwise have limited sources of income) in
theaters of conflict including northern Syria and Iraq, western Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh.41 Partly because the
drones and proxy forces limit Turkey’s political and economic risk, Turkish leaders have shown less restraint in
deploying them, and they have reportedly proven effective at countering other actors’ more expensive but less
mobile armored vehicles and air defense systems (such as with Russian-origin equipment in Syria, Libya, and
Nagorno-Karabakh).42
Turkey’s demonstrated battlefield successes with its drones have significantly increased demand for exports to
other countries.43 The growing global popularity of the Bayraktar TB2 drone in particular (see Figure A-2) has
prompted one Western arms industry figure to call it the “Kalashnikov [rifle] of the 21st century.”44 One analyst
explained the TB2’s appeal by saying that it “strikes a favorable balance between price and capability, being more
affordable and accessible compared to US drones while being far more reliable and effective than Chinese
models.”45 At the same time Turkey markets drones to other countries with fewer constraints than Western
countries, it generally seeks to broaden military, political, and economic linkages with them.46
While this “drone diplomacy” appears to be helping Turkey build important regional and global connections, some
observers have raised concerns. One worry is that Turkey may enable human rights violations; an example is the
Ethiopian government’s use of TB2s (alongside drones originally from Iran and China) against Tigrayan rebels.47
Another concern is that without greater oversight and transparency, exporting drones broadly could result in
unintended, adverse consequences for Turkey’s interests or those of its allies and partners.48
U.S./NATO Strategic Considerations
The United States has valued Turkey’s geopolitical importance to and military strength within the
NATO alliance, while viewing Turkey’s NATO membership as helping anchor Turkey to the
West. For Turkey, NATO’s traditional importance has been to mitigate Turkish concerns about

41 See, e.g., Rich Outzen, Deals, Drones, and National Will: The New Era in Turkish Power Projection, Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, July 2021.
42 James Marson and Brett Forrest, “Low-Cost Armed Drones Reshape War and Geopolitics,” Wall Street Journal,
June 4, 2021; Mitch Prothero, “Turkey’s Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year—here’s how he did it,” Business
Insider, October 22, 2020.
43 Sinan Tavsan, “Turkish drone success in Ukraine sets stage for Asia roadshow,” Nikkei Asia, March 16, 2022.
44 Ibid. For background information on the initial development of Turkey’s drone aircraft industry, see CRS Report
R41368, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.
45 Gabriel Honrada, “The Turkish drones winning the Ukraine war,” Asia Times, May 12, 2022.
46 Rich Outzen, “Ukraine’s Security Model Should be Turkey,” New/Lines Magazine, April 26, 2022.
47 Salem Solomon, “Ethiopia Ups Use of Drone Strikes in Conflict Prompting Worries About Civilian Toll,” Voice of
America, February 2, 2022.
48 Federico Borsari, “Turkey’s drone diplomacy: Lessons for Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, January
31, 2022; Alper Coskun, “Strengthening Turkish Policy on Drone Exports,” Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, January 18, 2022.
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encroachment by neighbors, such as the Soviet Union’s aggressive post-World War II posturing
leading up to the Cold War. In more recent or ongoing arenas of conflict like Ukraine and Syria,
Turkey’s possible interest in countering Russian objectives may be partly motivating its military
operations and arms exports.49
Turkey’s location near several conflict areas has made the continuing availability of its territory
for the stationing and transport of arms, cargo, and personnel valuable for the United States and
NATO. In addition to Incirlik Air Base near the southern Turkish city of Adana, other key
U.S./NATO sites include an early warning missile defense radar in eastern Turkey and a NATO
ground forces command in Izmir (see Figure A-3).
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Political, Military, and Economic Implications
Invasion of Ukraine and Turkish Mediation Efforts Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has heightened challenges Turkey faces in balancing its Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has heightened challenges Turkey faces in balancing its
relations with the two countriesrelations with the two countries and managing Black Sea access, with implications for U.S.-, with implications for U.S.-
Turkey ties. Turkey ties. In recent years, Turkey’s links with Russia—especially its 2019 acquisition of a Turkey’s links with Russia—especially its 2019 acquisition of a
Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—have fueled major U.S.-Turkey tensions, triggering Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system—have fueled major U.S.-Turkey tensions, triggering
sanctions and reported informal congressional holds on arms sales (discussed below). However, sanctions and reported informal congressional holds on arms sales (discussed below). However,
following the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. and Turkish interests in countering following the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. and Turkish interests in countering
Russian revisionist aims—including along the Black Sea coast—may have converged Russian revisionist aims—including along the Black Sea coast—may have converged in some ways as Turkey as Turkey
has participated in parallel with other NATO countries to strengthen Ukraine’s defense
capabilities.50
While Turkey has denounced Russia’s invasion and supplied Ukraine with armed drone aircraft
(see text box below) and humanitarian assistance, Turkey likely hopeshas helped strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities in parallel with other NATO countries.54 In addition to denouncing Russia’s invasion, closing the Straits to belligerent warships, and opposing Russian claims to Ukrainian territory (including Crimea),55 Turkey has supplied Ukraine with armed drone aircraft and mine-resistant ambush-resistant (MRAP) vehicles, as well as humanitarian assistance.56 Nevertheless, Turkey’s leaders likely hope to minimize spillover to minimize spillover
effects to effects to itsTurkey’s national security and economy, and this might partly explain Turkey’s continued engagement with Russia and desires to help mediate the conflict (discussed below). Turkey-Ukraine Defense Cooperation Turkey and Ukraine have strengthened their relations since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.57 In 2017, a Turkish security analyst attributed these closer ties to growing mutual interests in countering Russian influence in the Black Sea region and in sharing military technology to expand and increase the self-sufficiency of their 51 “Cavusoglu says US siding against Turkey in the Aegean, East Med,” Kathimerini, October 21, 2022. 52 Twitter, U.S. Embassy Türkiye, October 18, 2022 – 3:32 AM, at https://twitter.com/USEmbassyTurkey/status/1582273449145212928. 53 Can Kasapoglu, “Turkish Drone Strategy in the Black Sea Region and Beyond,” Jamestown Foundation, October 12, 2022; Jeffrey Mankoff, “As Russia Reels, Eurasia Roils,” War on the Rocks, October 11, 2022. 54 Saban Kardas, “The War in Ukraine and Turkey’s Cautious Counter-Balancing Against Russia,” German Marshall Fund of the United States, March 3, 2022. 55 “Turkey President Erdoğan on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future of NATO,” PBS Newshour, September 19, 2022; “Turkey recognises Russia-Ukraine ‘war’, may block warships,” Agence France Presse, February 27, 2022. 56 For information on the MRAPs, see Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey sends 50 mine-resistant vehicles to Ukraine, with more expected,” Defense News, August 22, 2022. 57 For information on the Crimea invasion, see CRS Report R45008, Ukraine: Background, Conflict with Russia, and U.S. Policy, by Cory Welt. Congressional Research Service 9 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief respective defense industries.58 Since 2020, the two countries have signed multiple agreements signifying closer cooperation, and also signed a broader free trade agreement (pending ratification) in February 2022.59 In line with these agreements, Turkish and Ukrainian companies have engaged in or planned a significant expansion of defense transactions, including a number of joint development or co-production initiatives. Turkish expertise with drone and other aircraft and naval platforms complements Ukrainian skil s in designing and constructing aerospace engines and missiles.60 Additionally, Turkey is helping establish Ukraine’s naval capabilities by producing corvettes (small warships) for export.61 As part of the deepening bilateral defense cooperation, Turkey has sold several Turkish-origin Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine since 2019,62 and some reports have suggested that the manufacturer has delivered additional TB2s to Ukraine at various times since Russia’s 2022 invasion.63 The TB2’s main producer, Baykar Technology, is planning to build a $100 mil ion factory in Ukraine that could be in position within about three years to manufacture the ful range of the company’s drones—doubling Baykar’s overall production capacity.64 Turkey’s maintenance of close relations with both Russia and Ukraine, and its ability to regulate access to the Straits has put it in a position to mediate between the parties on various issues of contention. In July 2022, Turkey and the United Nations entered into parallel agreements with Russia and Ukraine to provide a Black Sea corridor for Ukrainian grain exports that could partly alleviate global supply concerns.65 Under the deal, which currently runs until March 2023, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. have representatives at a joint coordination center in Istanbul to oversee implementation and inspect ships to prevent weapons smuggling.66 President Biden has expressed appreciation for Turkey’s efforts.67 In late 2022, Turkey’s mediation efforts expanded beyond the grain deal. Erdogan helped broker a Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange in September, and in November Turkey reportedly hosted talks between Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns and his Russian counterpart.68 Erdogan’s chief adviser and spokesperson, Ibrahim Kalin, said in November that Russia “is interested in finding and reaching a new deal with the West [in relation to the conflict in Ukraine], and more particularly with the United States.”69 58 Metin Gurcan, “Turkey-Ukraine defense industry ties are booming,” Al-Monitor, May 1, 2017. 59 “Turkey, Ukraine Sign Military Cooperation Agreements,” Associated Press, October 16, 2020; Christopher Isajiw, “Free trade and drones: Turkey and Ukraine strengthen strategic ties,” Atlantic Council, February 11, 2022. 60 Kasapoglu, “Turkish Drone Strategy in the Black Sea Region and Beyond.” 61 Kate Tringham, “Update: Turkey launches first Ada-class corvette for Ukraine and cuts steel for second,” Janes Navy International, October 3, 2022. 62 Dorian Jones, “Turkey Strengthens Defense Industry with Its Ukraine Partnership,” Voice of America, February 4, 2022. 63 David Hambling, “New Bayraktar Drones Still Seem to Be Reaching Ukraine,” forbes.com, May 10, 2022. 64 Jared Malsin, “Erdogan Seizes Chance to Give Turkey a Global Role,” Wall Street Journal, November 7, 2022. 65 “Ukraine, Russia agree to export grain, ending a standoff that threatened food supply” Associated Press, July 22, 2022. 66 See https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/background. 67 White House, “Readout of President Biden’s Meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkiye,” November 15, 2022. 68 Fatma Tanis, “Turkey is friendly with both Russia and Ukraine. Now it wants them to talk peace,” NPR, November 16, 2022. 69 Ibid. Congressional Research Service 10 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Turkey-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation Turkish officials have sought to minimize any negative economic impact Turkey might face from the Russia-Ukraine war, partly through boosting various forms of economic and energy cooperation with Russia. These efforts may stem from Turkish leaders’ concerns about improving the country’s economic profile in advance of 2023 elections.70 The Turkish government has not joined economic sanctions against Russia or closed its airspace to Russian civilian flights. In August 2022, Presidents Erdogan and Putin publicly agreed to bolster Turkey-Russia cooperation across economic sectors.71 Turkey’s Russia-related dealings could potentially lead to Western secondary sanctions against Turkey for facilitating Russian sanctions evasion. In June 2022, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo reportedly visited Turkey to raise concerns over the movement of some Russian assets and business operations to Turkey,72 and in August Adeyemo sent a letter to Turkish business groups warning of penalties if they worked with Russian individuals or entities facing sanctions.73 NATO Accession Process for Sweden and Finland Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO in May 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey objected to the formal start of the two countries’ accession process, delaying it for more than a month. Under Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the admission of new allies requires the unanimous agreement of existing members. The Turkish objections centered around claims that Sweden and Finland have supported or harbored sympathies for groups that Turkey deems to be terrorist organizations, namely the PKK and the Fethullah Gulen movement.74 (The United States and EU also classify the PKK as a terrorist group.) Turkey demanded that both countries lift the suspension of arms sales they have maintained against Turkey since its 2019 incursion into Syria against the PKK-linked Kurdish group (the People’s Protection Units—Kurdish acronym YPG) that has partnered with the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition.75 Turkey removed its objections to starting the accession process after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg mediated a June 2022 agreement between Turkey, Sweden, and Finland. In the agreement, the three countries confirmed that no arms embargoes remain in place between them. Further, Sweden and Finland agreed not to support the YPG or Gulen movement, and pledged to work against the PKK.76 70 Patricia Cohen, “Turkey Tightens Energy Ties with Russia as Other Nations Step Back,” New York Times, December 10, 2022. 71 “Russia’s Putin, Turkey’s Erdogan agree to boost economic, energy cooperation,” Agence France Presse, August 5, 2022. 72 Amberin Zaman, “US deputy treasury secretary in Turkey to warn against evading Russian sanctions,” Al-Monitor, June 22, 2022. 73 Elif Ince et al., “Russian Superyachts, Subject to Sanctions, Find a Haven in Turkey,” New York Times, October 24, 2022. 74 Semih Idiz, “How long can Erdogan sustain threat to veto Finnish, Swedish NATO bids?” Al-Monitor, May 17, 2022. 75 Sources citing links between the PKK and YPG (or PKK affiliates in Syria) include State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism 2020, Syria; Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux”; Barak Barfi, Ascent of the PYD and the SDF, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2016. 76 Agreement text available at Twitter, Ragip Soylu, June 28, 2022 – 2:48 PM, at https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1541856195257966592. Congressional Research Service 11 link to page 15 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief While Turkey’s decision generally drew plaudits from other NATO members, during the delay some Western officials had raised questions about Turkey’s commitment to strengthening NATO. President Erdogan maintained that Turkey might delay its parliamentary ratification of the accession process.77 With Hungary likely to ratify Swedish and Finnish accession by early 2023, Turkey could remain the only country delaying the process.78 In December, Sweden reportedly extradited a man who had been convicted in Turkey in 2015 of being a PKK member. Turkish officials have welcomed the action and expressed hope for additional extraditions and steps on countering terrorist-related financing.79 At a December press conference with Sweden’s and Finland’s foreign ministers, Secretary of State Blinken reiterated strong U.S. support for the two countries’ NATO accession and said that they have addressed Turkey’s security concerns in tangible ways. He stated that “it is not a bilateral issue between the United States and Turkey and it’s not going to turn into one,” while also expressing confidence that the process will come to a successful conclusion soon.80 Syria81 Background Turkey’s involvement in Syria’s conflict since it started in 2011 has been complicated and costly and has severely strained U.S.-Turkey ties.82 Turkey’s priorities in Syria’s civil war have evolved during the course of the conflict. While Turkey still opposes Syrian President Bashar al Asad, it has engaged in a mix of coordination and competition with Russia and Iran (which support Asad) since intervening militarily in Syria starting in August 2016. Turkey and the United States have engaged in similarly inconsistent interactions in northern Syria east of the Euphrates River, where U.S. forces have been based. Since at least 2014, Turkey has actively sought to thwart the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from establishing an autonomous area along Syria’s northern border with Turkey. Turkey’s government considers the YPG and its political counterpart, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), to be a major threat to Turkish security, based on Turkish concerns that YPG/PYD gains have emboldened the PKK (which has links to the YPG/PYD) in its domestic conflict with Turkish authorities.83 The YPG/PYD has a leading role within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an umbrella group including Arabs and other non-Kurdish elements that became the main U.S. ground force partner against the Islamic State in 2015. Turkish-led military operations in 77 Amberin Zaman, “Erdogan says Sweden’s, Finland’s NATO memberships not done deal,” Al-Monitor, June 30, 2022. 78 William Mauldin and Michael R. Gordon, “Sweden and Finland on Track for NATO Membership,” Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2022. 79 “Turkey welcomes Sweden’s extradition of wanted convict,” Associated Press, December 5, 2022; “Turkey asks Finland to resume defense sales amid NATO talks,” Al-Monitor, December 6, 2022. 80 State Department, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken with Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström and Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto at a Joint Press Availability,” December 8, 2022. 81 See CRS Report RL33487, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, coordinated by Carla E. Humud. 82 For background, see Burak Kadercan, “Making Sense of Turkey’s Syria Strategy: A ‘Turkish Tragedy’ in the Making,” War on the Rocks, August 4, 2017. 83 See, for example, Soner Cagaptay, “U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, August 7, 2019. For sources linking the PKK to the YPG (or PKK affiliates in Syria), see footnote 75. Congressional Research Service 12 link to page 27 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief October 2019 to seize areas of northeastern Syria from the SDF—after U.S. Special Forces pulled back from the border area—led to major criticism of and proposed action against Turkey in Congress.84 U.S. officials have continued partnering with SDF forces against the Islamic State in some areas of Syria, while the SDF has made arrangements elsewhere for protection to come from Syrian government forces. Turkey has set up local councils in areas of northern Syria that Turkey and Turkish-supported Syrian armed opposition groups—generally referred to under the moniker of the Syrian National Army (SNA)—have occupied since 2016 (see Figure A-6). These councils and associated security forces provide public services in these areas with funding, oversight, and training from Turkish officials. Questions persist about future governance and Turkey’s overarching role. Erdogan has hinted at the possibility of repairing relations with Asad, after more than a decade in which Turkey has sought an end to Asad’s rule. As of late 2022, Russia is reportedly trying to broker better ties. Turkey is seeking Syria’s help to push YPG fighters farther from the border and facilitate the return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey. Asad reportedly wants full Turkish withdrawal in return.85 It is unclear whether the two leaders can compromise and how that would affect Turkey’s relationship with the SNA and the overall dynamic with other stakeholders in northern Syria. Further Turkish Military Operations? In May 2022, Erdogan began making public statements about a possible new Turkish military operation to expand areas of Turkish control in Syria as a means of countering YPG influence and providing areas for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees living in Turkey.86 The presence of Syrian refugees has become politically charged in Turkey ahead of the scheduled 2023 elections, partly because of Turkey’s ongoing economic turmoil. In June testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy Dana Stroul said that any Turkish escalation in northern Syria “risks disrupting [Defeat]-ISIS operations,” including the security of SDF-managed detention facilities.87 As of August 2022, a media report suggested that approximately 900 U.S. Special Forces personnel were deployed in northeastern Syria to help the SDF counter the Islamic State and to discourage other countries’ forces from occupying the area.88 A November 13, 2022 bombing that killed six people in Istanbul and injured dozens more may have boosted the Turkish government’s resolve to consider a military operation in Syria. Turkish officials have publicized information alleging YPG responsibility for the attack, though the YPG and PKK deny involvement.89 Turkey began air and artillery strikes against SDF-controlled areas of northern Syria (including civilian infrastructure) and PKK targets in northern Iraq on November 20, 2022, dubbing the strikes Operation Claw-Sword and invoking self-defense as justification. Various U.S. official 84 Rachel Oswald, “Sanctions on Turkey go front and center as Congress returns,” Roll Call, October 15, 2019. 85 “Syria resisting Russia's efforts to broker Turkey summit, sources say,” Reuters, December 5, 2022. 86 Fehim Tastekin, “The stumbling blocks facing Turkey’s new operation plan in Syria,” Al-Monitor, May 30, 2022. 87 Statement of Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy, Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “The Path Forward on U.S.-Syria Policy: Strategy and Accountability,” June 8, 2022, available at https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/060822_%20Stroul_Testimony.pdf. 88 Alexander Ward et al., “What are we still doing in Syria?” Politico, August 26, 2022. 89 “Turkey blames deadly bomb on Kurdish militants; PKK denies involvement,” Reuters, November 14, 2022. Congressional Research Service 13 link to page 27 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief statements have acknowledged Turkey’s right to self-defense, but have generally opposed cross-border strikes and voiced concerns that Turkey-SDF clashes could reduce the SDF’s focus on countering the Islamic State.90 In a November 30 call between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Secretary Austin expressed the Defense Department’s “strong opposition to a new Turkish military operation.”91 Based on open source reporting, the likely focus of a Turkish ground operation would be to eject the SDF from the towns and surroundings of Tell Rifat and Manbij (see Figure A-6).92 These areas include important supply routes connecting northwestern and northeastern Syria, and are not in the American military sphere of operation in northeastern Syria, but farther west in the Russian and Syrian regime sphere. Concerns about how a Turkish-led ground operation in areas surrounding Aleppo province might affect Russian, Iranian, and Syrian government sway in the province could affect Russia’s stance toward a potential operation.93 One former senior U.S. official has speculated that Russia might approve a Turkish operation into Kobane/Ayn al Arab in the hope that it could drive a wedge between the United States and Turkey, and thus weaken their efforts to contain Russia in Syria.94 U.S.-Turkey Arms Sales Issues How Turkey procures key weapons systems is relevant to U.S. policy in part because it affects Turkey’s partnerships with major powers and the country’s role within NATO. For decades, Turkey has relied on certain U.S.-origin equipment such as aircraft, helicopters, missiles, and other munitions to maintain military strength.95 Russian S-400 Acquisition: Removal from F-35 Program, U.S. Sanctions, and Informal Holds Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 system, which Turkey ordered in 2017 and Russia delivered in 2019,96 has significant implications for Turkey’s relations with Russia, the United States, and other NATO countries. As a direct result of the transaction, the Trump Administration removed Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in July 2019, and imposed sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA, P.L. 115-44) on Turkey’s defense procurement agency in December 2020.97 In explaining the U.S. decision to 90 Ibid. 91 Defense Department, “Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Phone Call With Turkish Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar,” November 30, 2022. 92 Rich Outzen, “The risks and rewards of Erdogan’s next military operation,” Atlantic Council, December 1, 2022. 93 Pepe Escobar, “Operation Claw-Sword: Erdogan’s big new game in Syria,” Asia Times, November 27, 2022; Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, interviewed in Nadeen Ebrahim, “Will Erdogan finally deliver on his vow to invade northern Syria?” CNN, November 25, 2022. 94 James Jeffrey, “How the U.S. Can Compromise with Turkey on Syria,” Foreign Policy, December 9, 2022. 95 Turkey also has procurement and co-development relationships with other NATO allies, including Germany (submarines), Italy (helicopters and reconnaissance satellites), and the United Kingdom (a fighter aircraft prototype). 96 “Turkey, Russia sign deal on supply of S-400 missiles,” Reuters, December 29, 2017. According to this source, Turkey and Russia reached agreement on the sale of at least one S-400 system for $2.5 billion, with the possibility of a second system to come later. 97 CRS Insight IN11557, Turkey: U.S. Sanctions Under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. Congressional Research Service 14 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief remove Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019, one official said, “Turkey cannot field a Russian intelligence collection platform [within the S-400 system] in proximity to where the F-35 program makes, repairs and houses the F-35. Much of the F-35’s strength lies in its stealth capabilities, so the ability to detect those capabilities would jeopardize the long-term security of the F-35 program.”98 Additionally, Section 1245 of the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, P.L. 116-92) prohibits the use of U.S. funds to transfer F-35s to Turkey unless the Secretaries of Defense and State certify that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400. Turkey has conducted some testing of the S-400 but does not appear to have made the system generally national security and economy. The Turkish government has not joined economic
sanctions against Russia or closed its airspace to Russian civilian flights. As mentioned above,
global and regional supply problems stemming from the conflict appear to have worsened
Turkey’s ongoing inflation crisis. Additionally, decreases in Russian and Ukrainian tourism are
affecting Turkey’s economy, and Turkey is wary of potential Russian actions that could harm its
economy even more, such as cutoffs of natural gas and wheat exports or military operations that
might increase refugee flows to Turkey.51
With Turkish officials arguably motivated to improve the country’s economic profile while
anticipating closely contested national elections in 2023, they have welcomed sanctioned Russian
oligarchs as tourists and investors. Turkey’s actions raise questions about whether it can and will
prevent Russian investors from evading Western sanctions.52 In June 2022, Deputy Secretary of

49 Dimitar Bechev, “Russia, Turkey and the Spectre of Regional Instability,” Al Sharq Strategic Research, April 13,
2022; Prothero, “Turkey’s Erdogan has been humiliating Putin all year.”
50 Saban Kardas, “The War in Ukraine and Turkey’s Cautious Counter-Balancing Against Russia,” German Marshall
Fund of the United States, March 3, 2022.
51 Adar, “Perceptions in Turkey about the War in Ukraine.”
52 Giacomo Tognini, “Why Turkey Could Become the Next Haven for Russian Oligarchs Fleeing Sanctions,”
forbes.com, May 3, 2022; Karen Gilchrist, “Turkey may become the new playground for Russian oligarchs – but it’s a
risky strategy,” CNBC, March 30, 2022.
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Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

the Treasury Wally Adeyemo reportedly visited Turkey to raise concerns over the movement of
some Russian assets and business operations to Turkey.53
In July 2022, Turkey and the United Nations entered into parallel agreements with Russia and
Ukraine to provide a Black Sea corridor for Ukrainian grain exports that could partly alleviate
global supply concerns.54 In a statement marking the departure of the first shipment in early
August, the State Department commended Turkey and the U.N. for their roles in mediating the
agreement, while maintaining a wait-and-see approach toward its impact on global food
security.55 If successful implementation continues, Turkey may portray the agreements to Ukraine
and the West as a justification for keeping lines of communication open with Russia for problem-
solving diplomacy.56 Under the deal, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. have representatives
at a joint coordination center in Istanbul to oversee implementation and inspect ships to prevent
weapons smuggling.57
Ukraine’s Use of Bayraktar TB2 Drones and Broader Implications
Turkey has sold several Turkish-origin Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine as part of deepening bilateral defense
cooperation since 2019,58 and some reports have suggested that the manufacturer has periodically delivered
additional TB2s to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.59 Multiple accounts have surfaced of Ukraine’s successful use of
TB2s to target Russian armored vehicle convoys, air defense batteries, helicopters, and ships—often in
coordination with other Ukrainian weapons platforms. A May 2022 report stated that Russia may have destroyed
Ukrainian TB2s in sufficient number to significantly reduce their likely future impact on the war.60
Because the Turkish defense industry has made deals with Ukrainian contractors to provide engines for newer
combat drone platforms, as well as various manned aircraft projects, threats posed to Ukraine’s manufacturing
capacity from Russia’s invasion could delay some of Turkey’s plans.61 Ukraine became an important alternative
source for Turkey in procuring engines after a 2019-2020 decrease in Western supply due to concerns about
Turkish actions against Syrian Kurds and Armenians.62
Expanding Turkish defense cooperation—including drone exports—with countries near Russia may present
opportunities to renew common cause between the West and Turkey in countering Russia.63 Alternatively,
Turkey’s interactions with these other countries could possibly check both U.S. and Russian ambitions,64 or
increase regional tensions potentially leading toward conflict.65

53 Amberin Zaman, “US deputy treasury secretary in Turkey to warn against evading Russian sanctions,” Al-Monitor,
June 22, 2022.
54 “Ukraine, Russia agree to export grain, ending a standoff that threatened food supply” Associated Press, July 22,
2022.
55 State Department, “First Grain Ship Departs the Black Sea,” August 3, 2022.
56 Menekse Tokyay, “What to expect following grain corridor deal?” Arab News, July 24, 2022.
57 “Ukraine, Russia agree to export grain.”
58 Dorian Jones, “Turkey Strengthens Defense Industry with Its Ukraine Partnership,” Voice of America, February 4,
2022.
59 David Hambling, “New Bayraktar Drones Still Seem to Be Reaching Ukraine,” forbes.com, May 10, 2022.
60 Stephen Witt, “Weapon of Influence,” New Yorker, May 16, 2022.
61 Fehim Tastekin, “Will Ukraine crisis help Turkey dodge Western arms embargoes?” Al-Monitor, March 28, 2022.
62 Aykan Erdemir and Ryan Brobst, “Engines of Influence: Turkey’s Defense Industry Under Erdogan,” Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, March 24, 2022.
63 Suat Kiniklioglu, “Necessary friends: Turkey’s improving relationship with the West,” European Council on Foreign
Relations, April 7, 2022.
64 Outzen, “Ukraine’s Security Model Should be Turkey.”
65 Aaron Stein, “From Ankara with Implications: Turkish Drones and Alliance Entrapment,” War on the Rocks,
December 15, 2021.
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link to page 24 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

Black Sea Access
Turkey’s power to regulate access to the Black Sea via the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits (see
Figure A-4) under the 1936 Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits (the “Montreux
Convention”) is important to U.S. interests.66 In February 2022, Turkey acknowledged a state of
war between Russia and Ukraine, invoking Article 19 of the Montreux Convention, which
generally bars belligerent countries’ warships from traversing the Straits (except if they are
returning to their base of origin).67 Shortly after Turkey’s decision, Secretary of State Antony
Blinken expressed appreciation for Turkey’s implementation of the Convention and support for
Ukraine.68 (The United States is not a party to the Convention, but has complied with its terms
since it went into effect in 1936 as a treaty that is reflective of customary international law.)
Turkey’s invocation of Article 19 for the first time since World War II may limit Russia from
replenishing ships it loses in battle. While Ukrainian coastal defenses have dealt losses to some
Russian ships, Russia’s existing Black Sea fleet remains powerful, now controls the key
Ukrainian port of Mariupol, and has essentially disabled Ukraine’s navy.69
In March 10 correspondence with CRS, a Turkish official explained that (under the Montreux
Convention) Turkey has only formally closed the Straits to Russia and Ukraine as belligerent
countries, while advising all other countries to refrain from sending warships through the Straits.
Some naval analysts have expressed concern that discouraging other countries from transit could
put NATO at a disadvantage.70 One has asserted that Black Sea access is “essential for the
alliance’s presence and security as well as to reassure” allies Romania and Bulgaria.71 It is
unclear what might lead Turkey and other Black Sea littoral countries (aside from Russia) to take
direct action or seek third-party help in asserting their interests and freedom of navigation, and
how that could affect regional security.
NATO Accession Process for Sweden and Finland
When Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO in May 2022 (sparked by growing
security concerns in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), Turkey objected to the formal start of
the two countries’ accession process, delaying it for more than a month. Under Article 10 of the
North Atlantic Treaty, the admission of new allies can only happen with the unanimous agreement
of existing members. Addressing Turkey’s parliament on May 18, Erdogan said, “The expansion
of NATO is meaningful for us, in proportion to the respect that is shown to our sensitivities.”72
The Turkish objections centered around claims that Sweden and Finland have supported or
harbored sympathies for groups that Turkey deems to be terrorist organizations, namely the PKK

66 Maximilian Hess, “Welcome to the Black Sea Era of War,” foreignpolicy.com, April 25, 2022. Text of the
Convention is available at https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/formidable/18/1936-Convention-Regarding-the-
Regime-of-the-Straits.pdf.
67 “Turkey recognises Russia-Ukraine ‘war’, may block warships,” Agence France Presse, February 27, 2022.
68 State Department, “Secretary Blinken’s Call with Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu,” February 28, 2022.
69 Jon Jackson, “Russia Risks Losing Its Power in the Black Sea,” Newsweek, May 2, 2022.
70 Cornell Overfield, “Turkey Must Close the Turkish Straits Only to Russian and Ukrainian Warships,” Lawfare Blog,
March 5, 2022.
71 James Kraska, “Can Turkey Legally Close Its Straits to Russian Warships? It’s Complicated,” foreignpolicy.com,
March 1, 2022.
72 Emily Rauhala et al., “Turkey blocks start of NATO talks on Finland, Sweden,” Washington Post, May 19, 2022. See
also “Recep Tayyip Erdogan on NATO expansion,” Economist, May 30, 2022.
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link to page 18 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

and the Fethullah Gulen movement.73 (The United States and EU also classify the PKK as a
terrorist group.) Turkey demanded that both countries lift the suspension of arms sales they have
maintained against Turkey since its 2019 incursion into Syria against a PKK-linked Kurdish
group (the People’s Protection Units—Kurdish acronym YPG) that has partnered with the U.S.-
led anti-Islamic State coalition (see “Syria”).74 Turkey removed its objections to starting the
accession process after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg mediated a June 2022
agreement between Turkey, Sweden, and Finland. In the agreement, the three countries confirmed
that no arms embargoes remain in place between them. Further, Sweden and Finland agreed not
to support the YPG or Gulen movement, and pledged to work against the PKK.75
While Turkey’s decision generally drew plaudits after some Western officials had raised questions
about its commitment to strengthening NATO, President Erdogan has said that Turkey could still
delay its parliamentary ratification of the accession process.76 Turkey has called for Sweden and
Finland to extradite some people it accuses of terrorist links or actions.
U.S.-Turkey Arms Sales Issues
How Turkey procures key weapons systems is relevant to U.S. policy in part because it affects
Turkey’s partnerships with major powers and the country’s role within NATO. For decades,
Turkey has relied on certain U.S.-origin equipment such as aircraft, helicopters, missiles, and
other munitions to maintain military strength.77 Turkey’s purchase of a Russian S-400 surface-to-
air defense system (discussed below) has raised questions about whether Turkey can remain
closely integrated with the United States and NATO on defense matters. However, after Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, Turkey appears less inclined to consider purchases of additional Russian
arms. One source quoted a senior Turkish diplomat as saying, “The war has practically killed all
potential Turkish-Russian deals in strategic weapons systems.”78
Russian S-400 Acquisition: Removal from F-35 Program and U.S. Sanctions
Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 system, which Turkey ordered in 2017 and Russia
delivered in 2019,79 has significant implications for Turkey’s relations with Russia, the United
States, and other NATO countries. As a direct result of the transaction, the Trump Administration
removed Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in July 2019, and imposed sanctions
under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA, P.L. 115-44) on

73 Semih Idiz, “How long can Erdogan sustain threat to veto Finnish, Swedish NATO bids?” Al-Monitor, May 17,
2022.
74 Sources citing links between the PKK and YPG (or PKK affiliates in Syria) include State Department, Country
Reports on Terrorism 2020, Syria; Mandiraci, “Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux”; Barak
Barfi, Ascent of the PYD and the SDF, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, April 2016.
75 Agreement text available at Twitter, Ragip Soylu, June 28, 2022 – 2:48 PM,
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1541856195257966592.
76 Amberin Zaman, “Erdogan says Sweden’s, Finland’s NATO memberships not done deal,” Al-Monitor, June 30,
2022.
77 Turkey also has procurement and co-development relationships with other NATO allies, including Germany
(submarines), Italy (helicopters and reconnaissance satellites), and the United Kingdom (a fighter aircraft prototype).
78 Burak Ege Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts,” Defense News, March 9,
2022.
79 “Turkey, Russia sign deal on supply of S-400 missiles,” Reuters, December 29, 2017. According to this source,
Turkey and Russia reached agreement on the sale of at least one S-400 system for $2.5 billion, with the possibility of a
second system to come later.
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Turkey’s defense procurement agency in December 2020.80 In explaining the U.S. decision to
remove Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019, one official said, “Turkey cannot field a Russian
intelligence collection platform [within the S-400 system] in proximity to where the F-35
program makes, repairs and houses the F-35. Much of the F-35’s strength lies in its stealth
capabilities, so the ability to detect those capabilities would jeopardize the long-term security of
the F-35 program.”81
Before Turkey’s July 2019 removal from the F-35 program, it had planned to purchase at least
100 U.S.-origin F-35s and was one of eight original consortium partners in the development and
industrial production of the aircraft.82 Section 1245 of the FY2020 National Defense
Authorization Act (P.L. 116-92) prohibits the use of U.S. funds to transfer F-35s to Turkey unless
the Secretaries of Defense and State certify that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400. Turkish
officials continue to publicly express hope that they can acquire the F-35 at some future time.
Turkish interest in procurement deals that feature technology sharing and co-production—thereby
bolstering Turkey’s domestic defense industry—may have affected its S-400 decision.
Strengthening its defense industry became a priority for Turkey after the 1975-1978 U.S. arms
embargo over Cyprus.83 Over time, Turkish companies have supplied an increased percentage of
Turkey’s defense needs, with equipment ranging from armored personnel carriers and naval
vessels to drone aircraft. While Turkey’s S-400 purchase reportedly did not feature technology
sharing,84 one reason Turkish officials favored the S-400 was a hope that it could open the door
for future technology sharing on air defense with Russia.85 Lack of agreement between the United
States and Turkey on technology sharing regarding the Patriot system possibly contributed to
Turkey’s interest in considering non-U.S. options for air defense, including an abortive attempt
from 2013 to 2015 to purchase a Chinese system.86
Other factors may have influenced Turkey’s decision to purchase the S-400. One is Turkey’s
apparent desire to diversify its foreign arms sources.87 Another is Turkish President Erdogan’s
possible interest in defending against U.S.-origin aircraft such as those used by some Turkish
military personnel in the 2016 coup attempt.88

80 CRS Insight IN11557, Turkey: U.S. Sanctions Under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
(CAATSA), by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.
81 Defense Department, “Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen M. Lord and Deputy
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David J. Trachtenberg Press Briefing on DOD’s Response to Turkey Accepting
Delivery of the Russian S-400 Air and Missile Defense System,” July 17, 2019.
82 A 2007 memorandum of understanding among the consortium participants is available at https://www.state.gov/
documents/organization/102378.pdf, and an earlier 2002 U.S.-Turkey agreement is available at https://www.state.gov/
documents/organization/196467.pdf. For information on the consortium and its members, see CRS Report RL30563, F-
35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program, by Jeremiah Gertler.
83 Omar Lamrani, “Facing Sanctions, Turkey’s Defense Industry Goes to Plan B,” Stratfor, November 7, 2019.
84 Aaron Stein, “Putin’s Victory: Why Turkey and America Made Each Other Weaker,” Foreign Policy Research
Institute, July 29, 2019.
85 Burak Ege Bekdil, “West’s reluctance to share tech pushes Turkey further into Russian orbit,” Defense News,
January 10, 2020.
86 Flanagan et al., Turkey’s Nationalist Course.
87 “Turkey is buying Russian missiles to diversify supply,” Oxford Analytica, January 26, 2018.
88 Nicholas Danforth, “Frustration, Fear, and the Fate of U.S.-Turkish Relations,” German Marshall Fund of the United
States, July 19, 2019; Ali Demirdas, “S-400 and More: Why Does Turkey Want Russian Military Technology So
Badly?” nationalinterest.org, July 14, 2019.
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Turkey has conducted some testing of the S-400 but has not made the system generally
operational. President Erdogan stated in September 2021 that Turkey expected to purchase a operational. President Erdogan stated in September 2021 that Turkey expected to purchase a
second S-400 system.second S-400 system.8999 Secretary of State Blinken warned Turkey that acquiring an additional Secretary of State Blinken warned Turkey that acquiring an additional
system could lead to more U.S. sanctions under CAATSA.system could lead to more U.S. sanctions under CAATSA.90100 Turkey may need to forgo possession Turkey may need to forgo possession
or use of the S-400 in order to have CAATSA sanctions removed. or use of the S-400 in order to have CAATSA sanctions removed.
An August 2020 article reported that some Members of congressional committees placed informal holds on major new U.S.-origin arms sales to Turkey in connection with the S-400 transaction. Such a disruption had not occurred since the 1975-1978 embargo over Cyprus.101 Possible F-16 Sales and Congressional Views
In the fall of 2021, Turkish officials stated that they had requested to purchase 40 new F-16 In the fall of 2021, Turkish officials stated that they had requested to purchase 40 new F-16
fighter aircraft from the United States and to upgrade 80 F-16s from Turkey’s aging fleet. fighter aircraft from the United States and to upgrade 80 F-16s from Turkey’s aging fleet.
President Biden reportedly discussed the F-16 request with Erdogan during an October 2021 G20 President Biden reportedly discussed the F-16 request with Erdogan during an October 2021 G20
meeting in Rome, indicating that the request would go through the regular arms sales consultation meeting in Rome, indicating that the request would go through the regular arms sales consultation
and notification process with Congress.and notification process with Congress.91102
Turkey’s value as a NATO ally amid a new crisis implicating European security—Russia’s war Turkey’s value as a NATO ally amid a new crisis implicating European security—Russia’s war
on Ukraine—may have on Ukraine—may have subsequently boosted the Administration’s interest in moving forward with an F-16 boosted the Administration’s interest in moving forward with an F-16
transaction with Turkey. Responding to criticism of a possible F-16 sale from 53 Members of transaction with Turkey. Responding to criticism of a possible F-16 sale from 53 Members of
Congress in a February 2022 letter,Congress in a February 2022 letter,92103 a State Department official wrote in March that Turkey’s a State Department official wrote in March that Turkey’s
support for Ukraine was “an important deterrent to malign influence in the region.”support for Ukraine was “an important deterrent to malign influence in the region.”93104 While While
acknowledging that any sale would require congressional notification, the official added, “The acknowledging that any sale would require congressional notification, the official added, “The
Administration believes that there are nonetheless compelling long-term NATO alliance unity and Administration believes that there are nonetheless compelling long-term NATO alliance unity and
capability interests, as well as U.S. national security, economic and commercial interests that are capability interests, as well as U.S. national security, economic and commercial interests that are
supported by appropriate U.S. defense trade ties with Turkey.”supported by appropriate U.S. defense trade ties with Turkey.”94
In April 2022, the Administration reportedly notified Congress informally of its intent to upgrade
some of Turkey’s existing F-16 fleet and provide short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles
(Sidewinder AIM-9X and AMRAAM AIM-120D) at a total cost to Turkey of around $500
million.95 In November 2021, a Turkish defense expert described what upgrades of Turkey’s F-16
aircraft to the Block 70/72 Viper configuration could entail, including a new radar, other software
and hardware enhancements, and structural improvements that significantly extend each aircraft’s
service life.96 Other countries that may receive new or upgraded F-16 Block 70/72 Vipers include
Greece, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Morocco, Bahrain, Bulgaria, the Philippines, and
Slovakia.97

89105 98 Defense Department, “Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen M. Lord and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy David J. Trachtenberg Press Briefing on DOD’s Response to Turkey Accepting Delivery of the Russian S-400 Air and Missile Defense System,” July 17, 2019. 99 Humeyra Pamuk, “Erdogan says Turkey plans to buy more Russian defense systems,” Humeyra Pamuk, “Erdogan says Turkey plans to buy more Russian defense systems,” Reuters, September 27, 2021. , September 27, 2021.
90100 Tal Axelrod, “Blinken warns Turkey, US allies against purchasing Russian weapons,” Tal Axelrod, “Blinken warns Turkey, US allies against purchasing Russian weapons,” The Hill, April 28, 2021. , April 28, 2021.
91101 Valerie Insinna, et al., “Congress has secretly blocked US arms sales to Turkey for nearly two years,” Defense News, August 12, 2020. 102 “Biden talks F-16s, raises human rights in meeting with Turkey’s Erdogan,” “Biden talks F-16s, raises human rights in meeting with Turkey’s Erdogan,” Reuters, October 31, 2021; Diego , October 31, 2021; Diego
Cupolo, “In troubled US-Turkey relations, F-16 deal seen as path for dialogue,” Cupolo, “In troubled US-Turkey relations, F-16 deal seen as path for dialogue,” Al-Monitor, November 1, 2021. For , November 1, 2021. For
background information, see CRS Report RL31675, background information, see CRS Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr. , by Paul K. Kerr.
92103 Text of letter available at https://pallone.house.gov/sites/pallone.house.gov/files/ Text of letter available at https://pallone.house.gov/sites/pallone.house.gov/files/
20220123%20Letter%20on%20Turkey%20F-16%20Request.pdf. 20220123%20Letter%20on%20Turkey%20F-16%20Request.pdf.
93104 Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Naz Durakoglu, quoted in Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. says Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Naz Durakoglu, quoted in Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. says
potential F-16 sale to Turkey would serve U.S. interests, NATO – letter,” potential F-16 sale to Turkey would serve U.S. interests, NATO – letter,” Reuters, April 6, 2022. , April 6, 2022.
94 Ibid.
95 Jared Malsin, “Biden Administration Asks Congress to Approve New Weapons Deal with Turkey,” Wall Street
Journal, May 11, 2022; Daniel Flatley and Selcan Hacaoglu, “Turkey Wins Biden Backing for Its F-16 Fighter Jets
Upgrades,” Bloomberg, May 12, 2022. For information on informal and formal congressional notifications, see CRS
Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr.
96 Arda Mevlutoglu, “F-16Vs Instead of F-35s: What’s behind Turkey’s Request?” Politics Today, November 22, 2021.
97 Ibid.
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105 Ibid. Congressional Research Service 15 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief In April 2022, the Administration reportedly notified Congress informally of its intent to upgrade some of Turkey’s existing F-16 fleet and provide short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles (Sidewinder AIM-9X and AMRAAM AIM-120D) at a total cost to Turkey of around $500 million.106 In November 2021, a Turkish defense expert described what upgrades of Turkey’s F-16 aircraft to the Block 70/72 Viper configuration could entail, including a new radar, other software and hardware enhancements, and structural improvements that significantly extend each aircraft’s service life.107 Other countries that may receive new or upgraded F-16 Block 70/72 Vipers include Greece, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Morocco, Bahrain, Bulgaria, the Philippines, and Slovakia.108
U.S. sales to boost the capabilities and extend the lifespan of Turkey’s F-16 fleet would provide U.S. sales to boost the capabilities and extend the lifespan of Turkey’s F-16 fleet would provide
Turkey time to develop its long-planned indigenous fifth-generation fighter aircraft, dubbed the Turkey time to develop its long-planned indigenous fifth-generation fighter aircraft, dubbed the
TF-X and expected to come into operation over the next decade. Turkey is apparently seeking to TF-X and expected to come into operation over the next decade. Turkey is apparently seeking to
partner with the United Kingdom (including companies BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce) to partner with the United Kingdom (including companies BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce) to
develop technology for the TF-X.develop technology for the TF-X.98109 If unable to procure F-16s or F-16 upgrades to boost the If unable to procure F-16s or F-16 upgrades to boost the
Turkish air force’s capabilities during the transition to the TF-X, Turkish officials Turkish air force’s capabilities during the transition to the TF-X, Turkish officials had previously
have hinted that they might consider purchasing Russian Su-35 fighter aircrafthinted that they might consider purchasing Russian Su-35 fighter aircraft.99 After the outbreak of
the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey’s calculus reportedly changed. According to a Turkish defense
analyst or Western European alternatives.110 According to some defense analysts, however, Turkey’s calculus has likely changed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.111 One has written that if Turkey cannot procure F-16s, “Security needs and politics dictate Ankara to remain within the NATO scope in its , “Security needs and politics dictate Ankara to remain within the NATO scope in its
fighter jet inventory. The only viable options before Turkey flies the TF-X are the [Eurofighter] fighter jet inventory. The only viable options before Turkey flies the TF-X are the [Eurofighter]
Typhoon, Typhoon, Saab [Gripen] and F-16 Block 70.”112 At the end of the June 2022 NATO summit in Spain, where Turkey agreed to allow the Sweden-Finland accession process to move forward (pending final Turkish ratification) and President Biden met with President Erdogan, Biden expressed support for selling new F-16s to Turkey as well as for upgrades. He also voiced confidence in obtaining congressional support.113 However, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Menendez has expressed disapproval due to what he has termed Erdogan’s “abuses across the region.”114 In addition to ongoing U.S.-Turkey tensions regarding Syrian Kurdish groups in northern Syria, Turkey-Greece disputes regarding overflights of contested areas and other longstanding Aegean Sea issues (referenced in the text box below) spiked in 2022 and attracted close congressional attention.115 Erdogan announced in 106 Jared Malsin, “Biden Administration Asks Congress to Approve New Weapons Deal with Turkey,” Wall Street Journal, May 11, 2022; Daniel Flatley and Selcan Hacaoglu, “Turkey Wins Biden Backing for Its F-16 Fighter Jets Upgrades,” Bloomberg, May 12, 2022. For information on informal and formal congressional notifications, see CRS Report RL31675, Arms Sales: Congressional Review Process, by Paul K. Kerr. 107 Arda Mevlutoglu, “F-16Vs Instead of F-35s: What’s behind Turkey’s Request?” Politics Today, November 22, 2021. 108 Ibid. 109 Burak Ege Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts,” Defense News, March 9, 2022. 110 “Türkiye signals it may turn to Russia if US blocks F-16 jet sales,” Daily Sabah, September 9, 2022; Paul Iddon, Saab [Gripen] and F-16 Block 70.”100
Turkey’s support for Ukraine may have inclined some key Members of Congress toward
accepting a possible U.S. upgrade or sale of F-16s for Turkey. After the S-400 transaction, some
Members reportedly placed informal holds on major new U.S.-origin arms sales to Turkey, in the
biggest disruption to U.S.-Turkey arms sales since the 1975-1978 embargo over Cyprus.101
However, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a May 2022 article interviewed some
congressional committee leaders with oversight responsibilities for arms sales.102 Most signaled
openness to considering F-16 transactions. Chairman Menendez remained skeptical, saying,
“[Turkey] acts in ways that are contrary to our interests in a whole host of things. I think the
administration has to stop seeing … the aspirational part of what we would like Turkey to be and
realize that Turkey is under Erdogan.”103
At the end of the June 2022 NATO summit in Spain, where Turkey agreed to allow the Sweden-
Finland accession process to move forward and President Biden met with President Erdogan,
Biden expressed support for selling new F-16s to Turkey as well as for upgrades. He also voiced
confidence in obtaining congressional support.104 However, Chairman Menendez has continued
expressing disapproval. Additionally, the House Armed Services Committee version of the
FY2023 National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 7900) contains a provision that would
condition the transfer of new F-16s or upgrade technology to Turkey on a presidential
certification (1) that the transfer is in the U.S. national interest, and (2) that includes a “detailed
description of concrete steps taken to ensure that such F-16s are not used by Turkey for repeated
unauthorized territorial overflights of Greece.” Turkey and Greece have actively disputed various
Aegean Sea airspace boundary and overflight issues (some of which are referenced below) at
least since the 1974 military clash over Cyprus.105

98 Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts.”
99 Paul Iddon, “Here Are Turkey’s Stopgap Options Until It Can Acquire Fifth-Generation Fighters,” forbes.com, “Here Are Turkey’s Stopgap Options Until It Can Acquire Fifth-Generation Fighters,” forbes.com,
March 15, 2021.
100 Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts.”
101 Valerie Insinna et al., “Congress has secretly blocked US arms sales to Turkey for nearly two years,” Defense News,
August 12, 2020.
102 Bryant Harris, “Congress signals openness to Turkey F-16 sale amid Ukraine cooperation,” Defense News, May 4,
2022.
103 Ibid.
104March 15, 2021. 111 Paul Iddon, “Where can Turkey buy fighter jets if US F-16 deal falls through?” Middle East Eye, September 29, 2022. 112 Bekdil, “Russian invasion of Ukraine is reviving Euro-Turkish fighter efforts.” 113 “Biden supports F-16 sale to Turkey, is confident about congressional approval,” “Biden supports F-16 sale to Turkey, is confident about congressional approval,” Reuters, June 30, 2022. , June 30, 2022.
105 Greece and Turkey in Conflict and Cooperation, Alexis Heraclides and Gizen Alioglu Cakmak, ed., London:
Routledge, 2019, pp. 89-108; Ryan Gingeras, “Dogfight over the Aegean: Turkish-Greek Relations in Light of
Ukraine,” War on the Rocks, June 8, 2022.
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link to page 25 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

With U.S. officials already having notified a possible upgrade of F-16s for Greece to Congress in
2021,106 U.S. decisions on bolstering Turkey’s F-16 fleet could have significant implications for
the security balance between Turkey and Greece, and for relations involving the three
countries.107 Erdogan announced in May 2022 that he would no longer deal with Greek Prime
Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, after Mitsotakis appeared to raise concern about U.S.-Turkey arms
transactions while addressing a May 17 joint session of Congress.108 Turkey and Greece have
long-standing disputes over maritime and airspace boundaries, energy exploration, and the status
of Cyprus (see text box). Since a relative spike in Turkey-Greece tensions in 2019114 Twitter, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, December 7, 2022 – 10:57 AM, at https://twitter.com/SFRCdems/status/1600519759493304321. 115 Alexis Heraclides, “The unresolved Aegean dispute: Problems and prospects,” Greece and Turkey in Conflict and Congressional Research Service 16 link to page 11 link to page 28 link to page 29 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief May 2022 that he would no longer deal with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, after Mitsotakis appeared to raise concern about U.S.-Turkey arms transactions while addressing a May 17 joint session of Congress.116 In December, a joint explanatory statement accompanying the expected final version of the FY2023 NDAA (H.R. 7776) said, “We believe that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should not conduct unauthorized territorial overflights of another NATO ally’s airspace.”117 With U.S. officials already having notified a possible upgrade of F-16s for Greece to Congress in 2021,118 U.S. decisions on bolstering Turkey’s F-16 fleet could have significant implications for the security balance between Turkey and Greece, and for relations involving the three countries.119 In the past three years, Greece has , Greece has
strengthened its defense cooperation and relations with the United States strengthened its defense cooperation and relations with the United States (see “U.S./NATO Strategic Relationship and Military Presence” above) and a number of and a number of
regional countries such as France, Israel, and Egypt.regional countries such as France, Israel, and Egypt.109120
Turkish Disputes Regarding Greece and Cyprus: Historical Background110Background121
Since the 1970s, disputes between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea and broader Since the 1970s, disputes between Greece and Turkey over territorial rights in the Aegean Sea and broader
Eastern Mediterranean have been a major point of contention, bringing the sides close to military conflict on Eastern Mediterranean have been a major point of contention, bringing the sides close to military conflict on
several occasions. The disputes, which have their roots in territorial changes after World War I, revolve around several occasions. The disputes, which have their roots in territorial changes after World War I, revolve around
contested borders involving the two countries’ territorial waters, national airspace, exclusive economic zones, and contested borders involving the two countries’ territorial waters, national airspace, exclusive economic zones, and
continental shelves (continental shelves (see Figure A-5)7 and Figure A-8 for maps of some of the areas in dispute). These tensions are related to and further complicated by one of the . These tensions are related to and further complicated by one of the
region’s major unresolved conflicts, the de facto political division of Cyprus along ethnic lines that dates from the region’s major unresolved conflicts, the de facto political division of Cyprus along ethnic lines that dates from the
1974 military clash in which Turkish forces invaded parts of the island to prevent the ethnic Greek leadership 1974 military clash in which Turkish forces invaded parts of the island to prevent the ethnic Greek leadership
from unifying Cyprus with Greece. The internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, which has close ties to from unifying Cyprus with Greece. The internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, which has close ties to
Greece, claims jurisdiction over the entire island, but its effective administrative control is limited to the southern Greece, claims jurisdiction over the entire island, but its effective administrative control is limited to the southern
two-thirds, where Greek Cypriots comprise a majority. Turkish Cypriots administer the northern two-thirds, where Greek Cypriots comprise a majority. Turkish Cypriots administer the northern one-third and are third and are
backed by Turkey, including a Turkish military contingent there since the 1974 clash.backed by Turkey, including a Turkish military contingent there since the 1974 clash.111122 In 1983, Turkish Cypriot In 1983, Turkish Cypriot
leaders proclaimed this part of the island the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, although no country other leaders proclaimed this part of the island the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, although no country other
than Turkey recognizes it.
Syria112
Turkey’s involvement in Syria’s conflict since 2011 has been complicated and costly and has
severely strained U.S.-Turkey ties.113 Turkey’s priorities in Syria’s civil war have evolved during
the course of the conflict. While Turkey still opposes Syrian President Bashar al Asad, it has
engaged in a mix of coordination and competition with Russia and Iran (which support Asad) on
some matters since intervening militarily in Syria starting in August 2016. Turkey and the United

106than Turkey recognizes it. Cooperation, New York: Routledge, 2019, pp. 89-108; Ryan Gingeras, “Dogfight over the Aegean: Turkish-Greek Relations in Light of Ukraine,” War on the Rocks, June 8, 2022. 116 Greek Prime Minister’s website, “Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ address to the Joint Session of the U.S. Congress,” May 17, 2022. 117 Joint explanatory statement available at https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats.rules.house.gov/files/BILLS-117HR7776EAS-RCP117-70-JES.pdf. 118 Defense Security Cooperation Agency, “Greece – F-16 Sustainment Materiel and Services, Transmittal No. 21-49,” Defense Security Cooperation Agency, “Greece – F-16 Sustainment Materiel and Services, Transmittal No. 21-49,”
August 3, 2021. August 3, 2021.
107119 Aaron Stein, “You Go to War with the Turkey You Have, Not the Turkey You Want,” Aaron Stein, “You Go to War with the Turkey You Have, Not the Turkey You Want,” War on the Rocks, May 30, , May 30,
2022. 2022.
108 Greek Prime Minister’s website, “Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ address to the Joint Session of the U.S.
Congress,” May 17, 2022.
109120 See CRS Report R41368, See CRS Report R41368, Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations, by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas. , by Jim Zanotti and Clayton Thomas.
110121 Ibid. Ibid.
111122 Turkey retains between 30,000 and 40,000 troops on the island (supplemented by several thousand Turkish Cypriot Turkey retains between 30,000 and 40,000 troops on the island (supplemented by several thousand Turkish Cypriot
soldiers). This presence is countered by a Greek Cypriot force of approximately 12,000 with reported access to between soldiers). This presence is countered by a Greek Cypriot force of approximately 12,000 with reported access to between
50,000 and 75,000 reserves. “Cyprus - Army,” 50,000 and 75,000 reserves. “Cyprus - Army,” Janes Sentinel Security Assessment - Eastern Mediterranean, February , February
3, 2021. The United Nations maintains a peacekeeping mission (UNFICYP) of approximately 900 personnel within a 3, 2021. The United Nations maintains a peacekeeping mission (UNFICYP) of approximately 900 personnel within a
buffer zone headquartered in Cyprus’s divided capital of Nicosia. The United Kingdom maintains approximately 3,000 buffer zone headquartered in Cyprus’s divided capital of Nicosia. The United Kingdom maintains approximately 3,000
personnel at two sovereign base areas on the southern portion of the island at Akrotiri and Dhekelia. personnel at two sovereign base areas on the southern portion of the island at Akrotiri and Dhekelia.
112 See CRS Report RL33487, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. Response, coordinated by Carla E. Humud.
113 For background, see Burak Kadercan, “Making Sense of Turkey’s Syria Strategy: A ‘Turkish Tragedy’ in the
Making,” War on the Rocks, August 4, 2017.
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link to page 26 link to page 14 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

States have engaged in similarly inconsistent interactions in northern Syria east of the Euphrates
River where U.S. forces have been based.
Turkey’s chief objective has been to thwart the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG)
from establishing an autonomous area along Syria’s northern border with Turkey. Turkey’s
government considers the YPG and its political counterpart, the Democratic Union Party (PYD),
to be a major threat to Turkish security because of Turkish concerns that YPG/PYD gains have
emboldened the PKK (which has links to the YPG/PYD) in its domestic conflict with Turkish
authorities.114 The YPG/PYD has a leading role within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an
umbrella group including Arabs and other non-Kurdish elements that became the main U.S.
ground force partner against the Islamic State (IS) in 2015. Turkish-led military operations in
October 2019 to seize areas of northeastern Syria from the SDF—after President Trump agreed to
have U.S. Special Forces pull back from the border area—led to major criticism of and proposed
action against Turkey in Congress.115
In May 2022, Erdogan said that Turkey was considering a military operation to expand areas of
Turkish control in Syria as a means of countering YPG influence.116 In response, the State
Department spokesperson recognized Turkey’s “legitimate security concerns” but condemned any
escalation and said that the United States supports maintenance of the current ceasefire lines to
avoid destabilization and putting U.S. forces at risk in the campaign against the Islamic State.117
In early June, Turkey announced plans that involve areas west of the Euphrates River away from
U.S. forces, which are concentrated on the river’s east side (see Figure A-6).118 Russian officials
also have raised some concerns about how a new Turkish offensive might escalate tensions and
may seek to encourage greater Turkish coordination with Syrian government forces.119 Even if a
new offensive does not target areas near U.S. forces, U.S. officials have expressed concern that it
could draw SDF forces away from tasks that include guarding IS-affiliated prisoners. In June
testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
for Middle East Policy Dana Stroul said that any Turkish escalation in northern Syria “risks
disrupting [Defeat]-ISIS operations,” including the security of SDF-managed detention
facilities.120
In areas of northern Syria that Turkey has occupied since 2016, Turkey has set up local councils.
These councils and associated security forces provide public services in these areas with funding,
oversight, and training from Turkish officials. Questions persist about future governance and
Turkey’s overarching role.

114 See, e.g., Soner Cagaptay, “U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG,”
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, August 7, 2019. For sources linking the PKK to the YPG (or PKK affiliates
in Syria), see footnote 74.
115 Rachel Oswald, “Sanctions on Turkey go front and center as Congress returns,” rollcall.com, October 15, 2019.
116 Fehim Tastekin, “The stumbling blocks facing Turkey’s new operation plan in Syria,” Al-Monitor, May 30, 2022.
117 State Department Press Briefing, May 24, 2022. The United States and Russia established separate arrangements
with Turkey in October 2019 for managing certain areas of northeast Syria. White House, “The United States and
Turkey Agree to Ceasefire in Northeast Syria,” October 17, 2019; State Department, “Special Representative for Syria
Engagement James F. Jeffrey Remarks to the Traveling Press,” October 17, 2019; President of Russia, “Memorandum
of Understanding Between Turkey and the Russian Federation,” October 22, 2019.
118 Nazlan Ertan, “Erdogan announces military operations in Syria’s Manbij, Tal Rifaat,” Al-Monitor, June 1, 2022.
119 Fehim Tastekin, “Ukraine, Syria top Lavrov’s agenda in Turkey,” Al-Monitor, June 6, 2022.
120 Statement of Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy, Testimony Before the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “The Path Forward on U.S.-Syria Policy: Strategy and Accountability,” June 8,
2022, available at https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/060822_%20Stroul_Testimony.pdf.
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The Turkish military remains in a standoff with Russia and the Syrian government over the future
of Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib, the last part of the country held by anti-Asad groups
(including some with links to Al Qaeda). Turkey deployed troops to Idlib to protect it from Syrian
government forces and prevent further refugee flows into Turkey. A limited outbreak of conflict
in 2020 displaced hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians and caused several Turkish and
Syrian casualties. Russian willingness to back Syrian operations in Idlib perhaps stems in part
from Turkey’s unwillingness or inability to enforce a 2018 Turkey-Russia agreement by removing
heavy weapons and “radical terrorist groups” from the province.121 Questions related to the
Russia-Ukraine war about the effect of Turkish measures to limit Russian military access to Syria
by air and sea,122 and whether Russia might curtail humanitarian access to Syria in early 2023,123
could affect future developments.
Refugees in Turkey
Turkey hosts about 3.6 mil ion Syrian refugees—more than any other country—along with hundreds of thousands
from other countries.124 A few weeks after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine began, Turkey estimated that 20,000
Ukrainians had come to Turkey.125 Refugees’ and other migrants’ living situations, effect on Turkey’s population,
and access to employment, education, and public services vary based on the differing circumstances that they face.
Turkey closed off most access to migrants from Syria in 2015126 and has sought to repatriate refugees who are
wil ing to return,127 with a few hundred thousand reportedly having done so to date.128 Reportedly, Turkish
authorities have forcibly returned some refugees to Syria.129
Per a 2016 Turkey-EU agreement to minimize the flow of migrants to the EU, Greece can return Syrian migrants
to Turkey that come to its islands. As part of a structured process, the deal calls for the same number of people
to be resettled from Turkey in EU countries.130 The agreement also mandated EU economic assistance for
refugees in Turkey. During some times of crisis, President Erdogan has threatened to open Turkey’s borders to
allow migrants into Greece and Bulgaria. Those countries implement security measures—with the assistance of
the EU’s border and coast guard agency—to minimize the number of crossings via land or sea, and some sources
have criticized them for alleged ethical or international legal violations related to the treatment of refugees or
migrants.131

121 Text of agreement available at https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/full-text-of-turkey-russia-memorandum-on-
idlib-revealed-1.771953.
122 Dorian Jones, “Ankara Tightens Russian Access to Syria,” Voice of America, May 10, 2022.
123 Lara Jakes, “U.N. Yields to Russia’s Limits on Aid Mission in Syria,” New York Times, July 12, 2022.
124 See https://reporting.unhcr.org/turkey#toc-narratives.
125 Nazlan Ertan, “Erdogan steps up pro-refugee rhetoric as 20,000 Ukrainians come to Turkey,” Al-Monitor, March 17,
2022.
126 Ceylan Yeginsu and Karam Shoumali, “Turkey Moves to Close All Gates at Border With Syria,” New York Times,
March 29, 2015.
127 “Turkey talks with UN over returning Syrian refugees,” Associated Press, September 12, 2021.
128 Durrie Bouscaren, “Syrian refugees and migrants in Turkey face a difficult decision to return home,” The World,
September 23, 2021.
129 Sultan al-Kanj, “Turkey forcibly deports dozens of Syrians,” Al Monitor, February 8, 2022.
130 Text of agreement available at https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/03/18/eu-turkey-
statement/.
131 “Greece: Pushbacks and violence against refugees and migrants are de facto border policy,” Amnesty International,
June 23, 2021; “Bulgaria: Pushbacks Escalate as Government Discusses Reinforcements at Borders,” European
Council on Refugees and Exiles, September 10, 2021.
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Appendix A. Maps, Facts, and Figures
Figure A-1. Turkey at a Glance

Geography
Area: 783,562 sq km (302,535 sq. mile), slightly larger than Texas 783,562 sq km (302,535 sq. mile), slightly larger than Texas
People
Population: 83,047,70683,047,706
. Most populous citiescities: Istanbul 15.6 mil, Ankara 5.3 mil, Izmir 3.1 mil, Bursa 2.1 mil, Adana 1.8 mil, : Istanbul 15.6 mil, Ankara 5.3 mil, Izmir 3.1 mil, Bursa 2.1 mil, Adana 1.8 mil,
Gaziantep 1.8 mil. Gaziantep 1.8 mil.
% of Population 14 or Younger: 23.4% 23.4%
(2020) Ethnic Groups: Turks 70%-75%; Kurds 19%; Other minorities 6%-11% (2016) Turks 70%-75%; Kurds 19%; Other minorities 6%-11% (2016)
Religion: Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), Others (mainly Christian and Jewish) 0.2% Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni), Others (mainly Christian and Jewish) 0.2%
(2017) Literacy: 96.7% (male 99.1%, female 94.4%) (2019) 96.7% (male 99.1%, female 94.4%) (2019)
Economy
GDP Per Capita (at purchasing power parity): $ $37,488
38,759 Real GDP Growth: 3.25.0% %
Inflation (end of year): 60.8%
: 73% Unemployment: 12.010.8% %
Budget Deficit as % of GDP: 3.94.5% %
Public Debt as % of GDP: 4237.5% .5%
Current Account Deficit as % of GDP: 3.7%
Sources5.7% International currency reserves: $67.1 bil ion Source: Graphic created by CRS. Map boundaries and information generated by Hannah Fischer using Graphic created by CRS. Map boundaries and information generated by Hannah Fischer using
Department of State Boundaries (2011); Esri (2014); ArcWorld (2014); DeLorme (2014). Fact information (2022 Department of State Boundaries (2011); Esri (2014); ArcWorld (2014); DeLorme (2014). Fact information (2022
end-of-year estimates or estimates or forecastsprojections unless otherwise specified) from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook unless otherwise specified) from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook
Database; Economist Intelligence Unit; and Central Intelligence AgencyDatabase; Economist Intelligence Unit; and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), , The World Factbook. .


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Figure A-2. Bayraktar TB2 Drone


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Figure A-3. Map of U.S. and NATO Military Presence in Turkey

Sources: Created by CRS using data gathered from the Department of Defense, NATO, and various media
outlets since 2011.
Note: All locations are approximate.

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Figure A-4. Map of Black Sea Region and Turkish Straits


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Figure A-5. Competing Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean

Source: Main map created by The Economist, with slight modifications by CRS.
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Figure A-6. Syria Conflict Map

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Appendix B. Relations with Israel and Arab States
Since the 2010s, Turkey’s relations with Israel and with Sunni Arab governments that support
traditional authoritarian governance models in the region—notably Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates (UAE), and Egypt—have been fraught with tension. Under President Erdogan, Turkey
and Israel have clashed politically over Israel’s handling of Palestinian issues and Turkey’s
support for the Sunni Islamist group Hamas (a U.S.-designated terrorist organization), even
though the countries have continued to expand trade ties.132 The Sunni Arab governments have
regarded Turkey with suspicion largely because of the Turkish government’s sympathies for
Islamist political groups and its close relationship with Qatar.133
Developments in Libya increased the overlap between Turkey’s disputes in the Eastern
Mediterranean and its rivalries with the Sunni Arab governments because they supported
opposing sides in Libya’s civil war. In late 2019, Turkey signed an agreement with Libya’s then-
Government of National Accord (GNA) on maritime boundaries, complicating the legal and
economic picture in the Eastern Mediterranean. Tensions spiked further after Greece and Egypt
reached a maritime boundary agreement in August 2020 that ignores the 2019 Turkey-Libya deal.
In the past year, however, Turkey has sought rapprochement with some of its regional rivals. The
potential economic benefits could help alleviate Turkey’s financial crisis ahead of closely
contested presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023. For example, Erdogan and UAE
President Shaykh Mohammad bin Zayid al Nuhayyan have visited each other, and the two
countries have signed a currency swap deal along with many other agreements on economic
cooperation and investment.134 Additionally, figures indicate that Turkish trade with Saudi Arabia
increased year-on-year by 25% in the first quarter of 2022.135 In April 2022, Erdogan visited
Saudi Arabia after Turkey transferred jurisdiction to the Saudis over the trial Turkey had
previously convened for Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. In June, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman al Saud visited Turkey. One media report anticipates UAE investment in Turkey’s defense
industry and Turkish defense exports to the Gulf—potentially including drones, air defense
systems, and various air, sea, and land platforms.136
Moreover, Israel and Turkey have shown signs of improving ties over the past year. The two
countries maintain diplomatic relations but have not had ambassadors stationed in each other’s
country since 2018.
Israeli openness to rapprochement with Turkey may stem from a confluence of factors, including
 Potentially greater Turkish willingness to reduce its support for Hamas in hopes
of better political and economic relations with Israel and other key U.S. partners
in the region (Sunni Arab governments such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia)—
partly to improve Turkey’s image in Washington. Some reports have hinted at

132 Kemal Kirisci and Dan Arbell, “President Herzog’s visit to Ankara: A first step in normalizing Turkey-Israel
relations?” Brookings Institution, March 7, 2022.
133 Flanagan et al., Turkey’s Nationalist Course; Andrew England, et al., “UAE vs Turkey: the regional rivalries pitting
MBZ against Erdogan,” Financial Times, October 26, 2020.
134 “UAE and Turkey central banks seek further co-operation after currency swap deal,” The National, February 17,
2022.
135 Sinem Cengiz, “Echoes from President Erdoğan’s Saudi Arabia Visit: A Fresh Start?” Politics Today, May 5, 2022.
136 Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey’s policy changes could see defense biz grow with Gulf rivals,” Defense News, March 1,
2022.
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 Turkey’s willingness to expel Hamas members allegedly involved in militant
operations from its territory.137
 Increasing Israeli focus on how relations with Turkey and other regional
countries might help counter Iran.
 The 2021 change in Israeli leadership from Benjamin Netanyahu to Naftali
Bennett and Yair Lapid.
In March 2022, Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited Turkey, and the two countries’ foreign
ministers exchanged visits in May and June. The countries anticipate future bilateral meetings and
steps to improve political and economic relations. President Erdogan and other top Turkish
officials have made public statements expressing interest in energy cooperation with Israel.
However, Israeli officials reportedly remain skeptical about prospects for a subsea Israel-Turkey
natural gas pipeline.138 While Israel has pursued greater high-level interaction with Turkey, it may
be cautious about significant near-term improvements in bilateral relations, and appears to remain
committed to close strategic ties with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus.139

Author Information

Jim Zanotti
Clayton Thomas
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs


3. Countries Interested in Bayraktar TB2 Drone Aircraft (as of July 2022) Source: ProPublica, based on news reports and statements from government officials and Baykar Technology. Notes: Since the publication of this map, the UAE has reportedly acquired TB2s and Saudi Arabia has expressed interest as well. “Türkiye sells its famed battle-tested drones to UAE as ties mend,” Daily Sabah/Reuters, September 21, 2022. Other potential buyers include the United Kingdom, Lithuania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Uruguay, and Togo. Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey’s defense industry eyes export expansion as government navigates geopolitical stage,” Defense News, August 8, 2022; “Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drone: Why African states are buying them,” BBC News, August 25, 2022. A few countries (including Tunisia, Algeria, and Malaysia) have reportedly purchased or expressed interest in the TAI Anka-S drone, which has a significantly larger flight range than the TB2. Congressional Research Service 20 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure A-4. Map of U.S. and NATO Military Presence in Turkey Sources: Created by CRS using data gathered from the Department of Defense, NATO, and various media outlets since 2011. Note: All locations are approximate. Congressional Research Service 21 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure A-5. Map of Black Sea Region and Turkish Straits Congressional Research Service 22 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure A-6. Syria Conflict Map Congressional Research Service 23 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure A-7. Some Areas of Aegean Dispute Source: Greek Reporter, June 2022, at https://greekreporter.com/2022/06/09/turkey-challenge-greece-sovereignty-16-maps/. Congressional Research Service 24 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief Figure A-8. Competing Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean Source: Main map created by The Economist, with slight modifications by CRS. Author Information Jim Zanotti Clayton Thomas Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Congressional Research Service 25 Turkey: Background and U.S. Relations In Brief

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137 Ariel Kahana, “Report: Israel, Turkey working to deport Hamas officials from Ankara,” Israel Hayom, February 15,
2022; Ofer Bengio, “Turkey Finds Israel Useful Again,” Tablet, March 13, 2022.
138 Lazar Berman, “FM’s visit shows Turkey eager to accelerate reconciliation, but Israel more cautious,” Times of
Israel, May 24, 2022. While such a pipeline may be the most feasible pipeline option for transporting Eastern
Mediterranean natural gas to Europe, political and economic obstacles may make liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports
from liquefaction terminals in Egypt a more practical option. “Turkey best option for East Med gas transit to Europe:
Experts,” Daily Sabah, March 10, 2022; Sean Mathews, “Russia-Ukraine war: Conflict boosts hopes for East
Mediterranean energy, experts say,” Middle East Eye, April 5, 2022. Rina Bassist, “Israeli energy minister inks deal to
export gas to Europe via Egypt,” Al-Monitor, June 15, 2022.
139 “Summit in Ankara: Turkey is wooing a reluctant Israel,” Americans for Peace Now, March 14, 2022.
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