Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
March 25, 2022November 9, 2023
Overview. Nigeria is Africa Nigeria is Africa
'’s most populous country, largest economy, and s most populous country, largest economy, and
leadingtop oil producer. It is the United States’ second-largest trade partner and third-largest destination for U.S. foreign
Tomás F. Husted
direct investment in Africa, and it routinely ranks among the top recipients of U.S. aid globally.
Analyst in African Affairs
Nigerians are the largest African diaspora group in the United States. By virtue of the country’s
size and influence, many U.S. policy and aid objectives in Africa arguably hinge to a significant extent on developments in Nigeria. Security, governance, and human rights concerns in Nigeria
have drawn congressional attention oil producer. Successive U.S. Administrations have described the U.S. partnership with Nigeria as among the
Tomás F. Husted
most important bilateral relationships on the continent: Nigeria is the United States’ second-
Analyst in African Affairs
largest trade partner and third-largest destination for U.S. foreign direct investment in Africa, and
it routinely ranks among the top annual recipients of U.S. foreign assistance globally. Poor governance, conflict, and human rights abuses in Nigeria have attracted attention from Members
of Congress and pose challenges for U.S. engagement. and pose challenges for U.S. engagement.
People and Politics. Nigeria is poised to overtake the United States as the third most populous country in the world by 2050, Nigeria is poised to overtake the United States as the third most populous country in the world by 2050,
with a population with a population
expectedprojected to exceed to exceed
400 million. Its population of 219 million375 million, according to U.N. estimates. The country is ethnically, linguistically, and is ethnically, linguistically, and
religiously diverse; its political system is distinguished by a number of formal and informal institutions designed to distribute power, public services, and state employment opportunities along ethno-regional linesreligiously diverse. Contestation over the distribution of political power and public resources among this diverse population has significantly shaped Nigeria’s politics and governance system. .
Nigeria has been a multiparty republic since 1999, after decades of military rule. Governance has improved in many respects
Nigeria has been a multiparty republic since 1999, after decades of military rule. Governance has improved in many respects
since the 1999 transition, , yet repression of political opponents and journalists, corruption, and security force abuses persist. yet repression of political opponents and journalists, corruption, and security force abuses persist.
In 2015, Nigeria experienced its first electoral transfer of power between parties with the election of President Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari won reelection in 2019, in polls that featured low turnout, violence, and allegations of pervasive vote-buying and therefore fueled concerns among observers over Nigeria’s democratic trajectory. The next general elections are due in 2023. In Nigeria’s multiparty era, major political parties have often rotated candidates for office, including the presidency, on a regional basis—one of several ethno-regional power-sharing arrangements that distinguish Nigeria’s federal system. President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, following elections marred by extensive administrative shortcomings and alleged vote rigging. President Tinubu has impressed investors and rating agencies with a series of far-reaching economic reforms, but public discontent has mounted over rising costs and declining purchasing power, and prospects for his economic agenda are uncertain. As head of the West African regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Tinubu also took a strong initial stance against a military coup in neighboring Niger, but faced domestic backlash for imposing economic sanctions and floating a possible military intervention. Tensions between ECOWAS and the Nigerien junta continue to simmer.
Security. Nigeria faces serious security challenges on several fronts. In the northeast, Nigeria faces serious security challenges on several fronts. In the northeast,
fightingconflict between government forces between government forces
and and
two armed Islamist insurgencies—Boko Haram and an Islamic State-affiliated splinter faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province—a long-running Islamist insurgency has killed tens of thousands of civilians, displaced millions, and involved extensive human rights abuseshas killed tens of thousands of civilians, displaced millions, and involved extensive human rights abuses
by all parties. . In northwest and central Nigeria, an escalation of disputes between herders and farmers In northwest and central Nigeria, an escalation of disputes between herders and farmers
has fueled widerhas contributed to a deterioration of security conditions characterized by armed criminality, ethno-religious violence, mass abductions for ransom, and emergent ethno-religious violence, mass abductions for ransom, and emergent
Islamist extremist activityIslamist extremist activity
, amid rising interethnic and interreligious tensions. In the southeast, . In the southeast,
violenceconflict between security between security
forces and armed separatists killed dozens in 2020-2021. The oil-rich Niger Delta, to the south, has long faced criminality and episodic militancy. The waters off southern Nigeria rank among the world’s most dangerous for attacks on vessels. Insecurity has strained Nigeria’s security forces. Perpetrators of violence have in many cases eluded prosecution, asforces and armed separatists has killed hundreds since 2020, with a spike in violence surrounding the 2023 elections. The oil-rich Niger Delta, to the south, has been plagued by gang violence and episodic militancy for decades; oil theft and other risks have increasingly prompted oil majors, including U.S. firms, to divest their onshore and shallow-water assets. The deterioration of security conditions in Nigeria over the past decade has strained the country’s military military
and law enforcement authorities often have struggled to investigate and prosecute attacksand police, and perpetrators of violence often evade arrest or prosecution. Security forces have reportedly . Security forces have reportedly
committed extensive abuses, exacerbating local grievances and committed extensive abuses, exacerbating local grievances and
raising challenges forcomplicating U.S. partnership programs. U.S. partnership programs.
Economy. With With
a rapidly growing population, extensive oil and gas reserves, extensive oil and gas reserves,
and high potential in the high potential in the
agriculture and manufacturing sectors, and a rapidly growing populationservices, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors, Nigeria is arguably , Nigeria is arguably
equippedpositioned to emerge as a global economic powerhouse. to emerge as a global economic powerhouse.
Nonetheless, NigeriaThe country faces faces
stark economic and development challengesstark economic and development challenges
, however: it is home to one of the world’s largest extremely poor populations, : it is home to one of the world’s largest extremely poor populations,
and lack of access to electricity and other basic services afflicts millions of individual Nigerians and constrains economic activity as a wholeand a major share of the population lacks access to basic services, such as improved water, toiletry, and electricity. Some development indicators have worsened in recent years, amid rapid population growth. Dependence on petroleum exports makes Nigeria’s . Dependence on petroleum exports makes Nigeria’s
economyeconomic and government revenues highly vulnerable highly vulnerable
to price volatility. Crude oil and other mineral fuels have long dominated Nigerian exports to the United States, accounting for 90% of U.S. imports from the country, by value, in 2022.
U.S. Assistance. Non-humanitarian aid for Nigeria managed by theto changes in global oil prices. Economic shocks linked to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have slowed growth and heightened poverty; the country’s near-term outlook is uncertain as the government struggles to expand COVID-19 vaccinations and as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has roiled global fuel and food markets.
U.S. Assistance. State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)
-administered aid allocated for Nigeria included $450 million in FY2020 appropriations, mostly for health programs. This figure does not include regionally- and centrally-managed funds, such as humanitarian aid; the United States has committed over $2 billion in emergency assistance for Nigeria since FY2015. It also excludes funds administered by other U.S. federal departments and agencies, including extensive security assistance administered by the Department of Defense (DOD).
Congress. Recent congressional attention on Nigeria has centered on terrorist threats, elections and other governance issues, human rights, totaled $645 million in FY2022 allocations, not including regionally and centrally managed funds. A large share of such assistance was for health programs. In addition, the United States committed roughly $355 million in humanitarian assistance for Nigeria in FY2022; U.S. humanitarian aid for Nigeria has totaled over $2.6 billion since FY2015.
Congress. Congressional attention on Nigeria has centered on elections and other governance issues, terrorist threats, and human rights and humanitarian conditions. Some Members have expressed concern over and humanitarian conditions. Some Members have expressed concern over
governance and human rights trends, including through legislation in the 117th Congress (e.g., H.Res. 235, S.Res. 241, and §6428 of H.R. 4350 [the House-passed National Defense Authorization Act for FY2022, a provision that was not adopted in the final bill, P.L. 117-81]). Military sales to Nigeria have been a focus of congressional scrutiny; in 2021, some Members of Congress religious freedom violations in Nigeria and abuses by Nigeria’s military. In the 118th Congress, a proposed amendment to a version of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024 (H.R. 2670) would have required the Secretary of State to report to Congress on efforts to urge accountability for civilian casualties and human rights abuses by Nigeria’s armed forces. The amendment was not adopted for debate on the House floor. Military sales have been a focus of congressional scrutiny, most recently in 2021, when some Members reportedly placed reportedly placed
a pre-notification hold on a proposed sale of military helicopters to Nigeriaa pre-notification hold on a proposed sale of military helicopters to Nigeria
. on human rights grounds (the sale later proceeded).
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3428 Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
Contents
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1
Demography .................................................................................................................................... 1
Politics and Governance .................................................................................................................. 2
Federalism and Power-SharingThe 2023 General Elections ................................................................................................. 3..... 3 The Tinubu Administration (May 2023 – Present) .................................................................... 4
Civic Space and Elections ......................................................................................................... 4
Corruption and U.S. Kleptocracy Recovery Efforts .................................................................. 65
Interfaith Relations and Religious Freedom Concerns.............................................................. 7
Security Challenges 6
Foreign Affairs................................................................................................................................ 10
Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province. 8 Security Challenges ....................................................... 12
Humanitarian Conditions in Northeast Nigeria ................................................................ 13
10
Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (IS-WA) ......................................... 11 Rural Insecurity: Herder-Farmer Conflict and “Banditry” Banditry ........................................................ 14. 12
Separatism in the Southeast .................................................................................................... 1613
Insecurity in the Niger Delta and Gulf of Guinea ................................................................... 1714
Trafficking in Persons and Narcotics Trafficking ................................................................... 1714
Cybercrime, Financial Crime, and U.S. Responses ................................................................ 18
Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and U.S. Assistance 15
The Economy ...................................................................... 18
The Economy .......................................................... 15
The Oil and Gas Sector ...................................................................... 19
Impediments to Growth and Development ............................................................................. 21
The Oil and Gas Sector ....... 17 U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Investment .................................................................................................... 23
U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Investment 18 Economic Trends and Outlook .............................................................................................. 23.. 18
U.S. Relations and Assistance ....................................................................................................... 2419
U.S. Assistance ........................................................................................................................ 25
Security Assistance and Cooperation20
Humanitarian Assistance ................................................................................ 26
Humanitarian Assistance ................... 21 Security Assistance and Cooperation ................................................................................ 2821
Outlook and Issues for Congress ................................................................................................... 2924
Figures
Figure 1. Nigeria .............................................................................................................................. 2
Tables
Table 1. Non-Humanitarian U.S. Assistance for Nigeria, by Sector, FY2018-FY2022FY2020-FY2024 ................ 2520
Table 2. Humanitarian Assistance for Nigeria, FY2015-FY2021FY2023 ................................................. 2821
Contacts
Author Information ........................................................................................................................ 3125
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Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
Introduction
With Africa’s largest economy, With Africa’s largest economy,
among the most extensive extensive
proven oil and gas reservesoil and gas reserves
in the world, and a population on pace to exceed , and a population on pace to exceed
400375 million by mid-century, Nigeria’s economic and million by mid-century, Nigeria’s economic and
demographic heft position it to play a major role on the demographic heft position it to play a major role on the
regional and global stagesglobal stage. Stark . Stark
governance and security challenges cloud this outlook, however, governance and security challenges cloud this outlook, however,
amid immenseamid widening development development
gaps: Nigeria has one of the world’s largest populations living in extreme poverty, projected at roughly 100 million—nearly half the country’s population, and accounting for about one-quarter of Africa’s poorgaps: according to the World Bank, roughly one in five poor people in sub-Saharan Africa live in Nigeria.1 By virtue of Nigeria’s demographic size and influence beyond its borders, the .1 By virtue of Nigeria’s demographic size and influence beyond its borders, the
achievementattainment of major global development aims, such as the U.N. Sustainable Development of major global development aims, such as the U.N. Sustainable Development
Goals, Goals,
may depend to a considerable extent on whether Nigeria can reach its vast economic potential. Similarly, the attainment of longstanding U.S. security, development, and public health objectives in Africa arguably hinges on the advancement of such goals in Nigeria.
In recent years, deteriorating security conditions and other challenges have spurred pessimism on the part of some outside observers, as well as among Nigerians: according to Afrobarometer, a regional polling organization, nearly 70% of Nigerians surveyed in early 2020 believed their country was going in the wrong direction.2 Some analysts have argued that Nigeria is a failing or failed state; others disagree, pointing to areas of progress or resilience.3 Such debates are not new—political and security crises have animated periodic concern over Nigeria’s viability and territorial integrity since the country’s independence from the United Kingdom in 1960—and they are likely to persist as Nigeria continues to confront formidable governance, economic, and security challenges. In the meantime, Congress might consider how the United States can best advance U.S. interests and sustain past investments amid deteriorating human rights conditions, rising insecurity, and scarce resources and divergent priorities on the part of Nigerian authorities.
Demography
With an estimated 219 million people, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and sixth most populous globally.4 By 2050, it is poised to overtake the United States as the third most populous country (behind India and China), with a populace projected to exceed 400 million.5 arguably hinges to a large extent on developments in Nigeria.
President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, following a hotly contested election marred by extensive administrative problems and alleged vote rigging. His government inherited a mounting fiscal crisis, an underperforming economy, unprecedented security and humanitarian challenges, and a polity that is distrustful of government and divided along ethnic, religious, and regional lines.2 President Tinubu has announced a series of pro-market reforms that have won praise from investors and U.S. officials, but public discontent has mounted over rising costs and declining purchasing power, and prospects for his economic agenda are uncertain.3 Likewise, it remains to be seen if Tinubu will make progress toward reining in security force abuses and religious freedom violations, which have strained relations with the United States and are highly charged political issues within Nigeria. As Congress debates policy and budgetary priorities in Nigeria, it may weigh Nigeria’s geostrategic importance and the promise of Tinubu’s early reform efforts against human rights issues, widespread insecurity, and scarce resources and divergent aims on the part of Nigerian authorities, all of which may constrain progress toward U.S. objectives.
Demography With approximately 225 million people, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and sixth most populous globally; by 2050, it is poised to overtake the United States as the world’s third most populous country, behind India and China 4 Around three in five Nigerians are below the age of 25, raising the possibility of a “demographic Around three in five Nigerians are below the age of 25, raising the possibility of a “demographic
dividend” in the coming decades—contingent dividend” in the coming decades—contingent
upon whetherupon the capacity of Nigeria’s government and Nigeria’s government and
economy economy
to provideproves capable of providing a rapidly growing populace with quality services and livelihoods. a rapidly growing populace with quality services and livelihoods.
65
Nigeria’s population is highly diverse, comprising hundreds of ethnic and linguistic groups. There
Nigeria’s population is highly diverse, comprising hundreds of ethnic and linguistic groups. There
are no official statistics on ethnic or religious affiliation; efforts to collect such data have been are no official statistics on ethnic or religious affiliation; efforts to collect such data have been
1 Jonathan Lain and Tara Vishwanath, “Tackling poverty in multiple dimensions: A proving ground in Nigeria?” World Bank Blogs, January 7, 2021.
2 Afrobarometer, “Summary of Results: Afobarometer Round 8 Survey in Nigeria, 2020,” 2021. 3 On Nigeria as a failed or failing state, see Financial Times, “Nigeria is at risk of becoming a failed state,” December 22, 2020; Robert I. Rotberg and John Campbell, “Nigeria Is a Failed State,” Foreign Policy, May 27, 2021. For an opposing view, see Fola Aina and Nic Cheeseman, “Don’t Call Nigeria a Failed State,” Foreign Affairs, May 5, 2021. 4 Population estimate from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base (IDB), accessed December 30, 2021. 5 United Nations Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects 2019 Revision, 2019. 6 A demographic dividend refers to economic growth that can result from a rise in the proportion of working people in a country’s population; see U.N. Population Fund, “Demographic dividend,” accessed March 22, 2022. Population under 25 figures for Nigeria from U.S. Census Bureau, IDB, accessed December 30, 2021.
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Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
highly controversial.7 Nigeria’s largest ethnic groups are the Hausa-Fulani, made up of two highly controversial.6 Nigeria’s largest ethnic groups are the Hausa-Fulani, made up of two
1 World Bank, Nigeria Poverty Assessment 2022: A Better Future for All Nigerians, 2022. 2 In a 2022 survey by Afrobarometer, a nongovernmental survey network, close to 90% of Nigerians stated that the country was moving in the wrong direction, 71% said they have little to no trust in the president, and nearly 80% said they had little to no trust in the National Assembly. Afrobarometer, Nigeria Round 9 Summary of Results, 2022.
3 In a September 2023 meeting with President Tinubu, President Biden “welcomed the Tinubu Administration’s steps to reform Nigeria’s economy,” according to a White House readout. White House, “Readout of President Biden’s Engagement with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu,” September 10, 2023.
4 Population projection for 2023 from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects 2022 Revision, 2022. 5 A demographic dividend refers to growth that can result from a rise in a country’s working-age population; see United Nations, “Harnessing the economic dividends from demographic change,” July 6, 2023. Data on Nigeria’s population under 25 from U.S. Census Bureau, International Database, “Population by Age” Tables, accessed October 15, 2023.
6 The last census that produced data on ethnic or religious affiliation in Nigeria occurred in 1963 and featured extensive irregularities. Nigeria’s military government annulled the results of a 1973 census exercise, which were widely viewed (continued...)
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groups (the Hausa and Fulani) concentrated in the north whose mutual assimilation has led them groups (the Hausa and Fulani) concentrated in the north whose mutual assimilation has led them
to be often, but not always, considered as a to be often, but not always, considered as a
single bloc in the context of Nigerian politics;bloc in the context of Nigerian politics;
87 the the
Yoruba, Yoruba,
who predominatea majority in the in the
westsouthwest; and the Igbo, ; and the Igbo,
concentratedwho predominate in the southeast. Observers describe this population as roughly evenly balanced between a mainly Muslim north and a predominately Christian south, though some demographic researchers assert that higher fertility rates in the north are likely to place Muslims in the majority in the coming decades.8 in the southeast. Nigerians generally refer to groups outside of these three as minorities. Observers describe Nigeria’s population as roughly evenly balanced between Muslims, who are a majority in the north, and Christians, a majority in the south (see “Interfaith Relations and Religious Freedom Concerns”).9
Figure 1. Nigeria
Source: CRS graphic, using data from the State Department and Esri, a GIS mapping software company. CRS graphic, using data from the State Department and Esri, a GIS mapping software company.
Politics and Governance
Nigeria has been a multiparty republic since 1999, after three decades of military rule punctuated Nigeria has been a multiparty republic since 1999, after three decades of military rule punctuated
by recurrent coups and intermittent attempts to restore civilian authority. A by recurrent coups and intermittent attempts to restore civilian authority. A
federationfederal republic with 36 with 36
states, its political structure resembles that of the United States, with a bicameral National states, its political structure resembles that of the United States, with a bicameral National
Assembly comprising a 109-member Senate and 360-member House of Representatives.Assembly comprising a 109-member Senate and 360-member House of Representatives.
7 The last census that produced data on ethnic or religious affiliation in Nigeria occurred in 1963 and featured extensive irregularities. Nigeria’s military government annulled the results of a 1973 census exercise, which were widely viewed
as fraudulent. Ensuing censuses have excluded questions on ethnicity or religion. Several nongovernment studies have as fraudulent. Ensuing censuses have excluded questions on ethnicity or religion. Several nongovernment studies have
sought to enumerate Nigeria’s ethno-religious demography; their methodologies and results are a subject of debate. sought to enumerate Nigeria’s ethno-religious demography; their methodologies and results are a subject of debate.
87 The Hausa and Fulani are present in several African countries; the term “Hausa-Fulani” is generally only used when The Hausa and Fulani are present in several African countries; the term “Hausa-Fulani” is generally only used when
referring to the groups in Nigeria. Some researchers have objected to the “Hausa-Fulani” label. On Hausa-Fulani referring to the groups in Nigeria. Some researchers have objected to the “Hausa-Fulani” label. On Hausa-Fulani
identity, see Moses Ochonu, “Colonialism within Colonialism: The Hausa-Caliphate Imaginary and the British identity, see Moses Ochonu, “Colonialism within Colonialism: The Hausa-Caliphate Imaginary and the British
Colonial Administration of the Nigerian Middle Belt,” Colonial Administration of the Nigerian Middle Belt,”
African Studies Quarterly vol. 10, nos. 2-3 (2008): 98-100. vol. 10, nos. 2-3 (2008): 98-100.
9 See, e.g., State Department, 2020 Report on International Religious Freedom: Nigeria, 2021.
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President Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015 and won a second four-year term in 2019. A retired army major general from Katsina State in the northwest, Buhari previously took power in a military coup in 1983, before his chief of army staff overthrew him in 1985; he placed second in three consecutive presidential polls before his 2015 victory. His All Progressives Congress (APC) holds majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives and over half of state governorships. The leading opposition party is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which held the presidency from 1999 to 2015. Parties are not based on firm platforms; party defections are common, “particularly ahead of elections as politicians jockey for the best platform to secure victory.”10
Federalism and Power-Sharing
Over several decades, Nigeria’s political leaders have adopted a number of (formal and informal) institutions that operate to distribute political power and public resources based on ethno-regional inclusion or proportionality. According to one observer, “these efforts 8 A study of eleven nationally representative surveys conducted between 1990 and 2018 found that “identification with Christianity is likely to have been the majority among Nigerian adults through this period” but that “Christians seem unlikely to maintain their place as the largest religious group in Nigeria for long,” due to higher fertility rates in the north. Andrew McKinnon, “Christians, Muslims and Traditional Worshippers in Nigeria: Estimating the Relative Proportions from Eleven Nationally Representative Social Surveys,” Review of Religious Research 63 (2021): 303-315.
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Since a 1967-1970 civil war pitting an Igbo-led separatist insurgency in the southeast against the federal government, Nigeria’s political leaders have adopted a number of formal and informal institutions to distribute political power and public resources along ethno-regional lines and stave off a return to mass ethnic violence. Electoral rules effectively require the formation of cross-ethnic political parties to win office;9 appointments to the civil service and other state posts are constitutionally required to ensure “no predominance” by a single ethnic or regional group;10 and political parties have tended to rotate candidates for office and split tickets (at all levels of government) along ethno-regional or religious lines.11 A defining feature of Nigeria’s governance system is the monthly allocation of many federally collected revenues—notably including oil and gas receipts—to state and local governments, which rely heavily on these transfers for financing and informal patronage resources. According to one observer, such power-sharing arrangements “have had a major impact on have had a major impact on
how Nigerians talk about fairness in political life and on how they demand services and benefits how Nigerians talk about fairness in political life and on how they demand services and benefits
from the federal government.”11 These power-sharing institutions and norms are central topics of discussion in Nigerian political debate and public commentary.
A defining feature of Nigeria’s governance system is the statutory allocation of many federally collected revenues—notably including oil and gas receipts, which account for a large share of such earnings—to state and local governments. State and local authorities rely heavily on these transfers for financing and associated patronage resources.12 Disputes persist over the distribution of revenues between and among tiers of government.13 Discontent with the intergovernmental division of fiscal and other authorities—particularly among state and local government officials dissatisfied with the extent of powers accorded to the federal government—has spurred calls for a “restructuring” of Nigeria’s federation, especially to devolve authorities to sub-federal tiers.14
Under the “federal character” principle, enshrined in the 1999 constitution, appointments to the civil service and other posts (e.g., the military officer corps) must guarantee “no predominance of persons from a few states or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups.”15 A Federal Character Commission (FCC) monitors the geographic distribution of state appointments. According to separate (not legally mandated) conventions, political parties often rotatefrom the federal government.”12
The 2023 General Elections Nigeria held general elections in February and March 2023. With incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) facing term limits, the APC selected Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State—which includes the megacity of Lagos—as its flagbearer. Tinubu narrowly won with a 37% plurality. His closest challengers were former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP, 29%) and former governor Peter Obi of the Labor Party (25%), whose populist campaign had won the support of many young Nigerians, especially among fellow ethnic Igbo in the southeast. In National Assembly polls, the APC retained a majority in the Senate and remained the largest party in the House. The APC also controls 20 of 36 governorships, followed by 13 for the PDP.
The 2023 elections featured record-low turnout, widespread delays and other logistical issues, and claims of extensive rigging—though Yiaga Africa, a domestic observer group that administered a U.S.-funded parallel vote tabulation, assessed that fraud did not affect the overall outcome of the presidential election.13 Attacks on electoral personnel and facilities surged in the months prior to the polls, notably in the southeast; European Union (EU) observers recorded 74 deaths from electoral violence.14 Some Members of Congress expressed concerns over the conduct of the polls.15 Observers from the International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute assessed that they “fell well short of Nigerian citizens’ legitimate and reasonable expectations.”16
9 For instance, Nigeria’s constitution requires that a presidential candidate secure not less than one-quarter of votes cast in two-thirds of all states; candidates for state governor must secure one-quarter of votes cast in each local government area in the state. See Nigeria’s Constitution of 1999 with Amendments through 2011, Chapter VI, §133 and §179.
10 Nigeria’s Constitution of 1999 with Amendments through 2011, Chapter II, §3. 11 The practice of rotating candidates for office on candidates for office on
an ethno-regional basis an ethno-regional basis
(a practiceis known as “zoning.” At the national level, parties have often, but not always, nominated candidate for president known as “zoning”) and, since the 1999 transition to civilian rule, have often nominated candidates for the executive branch to rotate the presidency between to rotate the presidency between
north and south north and south
after two terms in office, and split their tickets between a Christian and a Muslim.
12 Brandon Kendhammer, “Getting Our Piece of the National Cake: Consociational Power Sharing and Neopatrimonialism in Nigeria,” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics vol. 21 (2015): 144. 13 Yiaga Africa, Dashed Hopes? Yiaga Africa Report on Nigeria’s 2023 General Election, 2023. 14 EU Election Observation Mission, Nigeria General Elections 25 February and 18 March: Final Report, 2023. 15 See, for example, Senator Jim Risch, “U.S. Shouldn’t Rush to Embrace Nigerian Election Results,” March 2, 2023; Representative Ilhan Omar, “Statement on Presidential Election in Nigeria,” March 3, 2023. 16 International Republican Institute/National Democratic Institute, International Election Observation Mission to Nigeria, Final Report of the 2023 Election, 2023.
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Following Tinubu’s declared victory, second- and third-place finishers Atiku and Obi filed petitions claiming to have won the election and seeking to nullify the result. In September 2023, a tribunal dismissed the petitions. Atiku and Obi are appealing the decision before the Supreme Court, though many analysts doubt the case will result in an invalidation of Tinubu’s victory.17
The Tinubu Administration (May 2023 – Present) President Tinubu has rolled out a series of far-reaching economic reforms since his inauguration in May 2023. In his inaugural address, he announced the termination of Nigeria’s decades-old fuel subsidy, which had kept local gas prices low but drained state finances (the subsidy cost $10 billion in 2022), enabled extensive corruption, and incentivized cross-border smuggling.18 His government also has moved to dismantle a multiple exchange rate regime that had resulted in persistent foreign exchange shortages and other distortions and discouraged foreign investors.19 Tinubu has fired his predecessor’s central bank governor, who spearheaded that exchange-rate system and other controversial policies, and replaced the country’s top anti-corruption official.
Foreign investors and credit rating agencies have broadly welcomed Tinubu’s reforms.20 Market adjustments have depleted local purchasing power, however: local gas prices have spiked since the fuel subsidy removal, and the value of Nigeria’s currency, the naira, has been on a sustained decline since the announced currency float. The country’s main labor federation has repeatedly threatened to strike over rising prices; the Tinubu administration has agreed to a minimum wage increase and other demands, though their implementation remains to be seen.21 President Tinubu has suspended other initiatives, such as an excise tax on telecommunications services, in response to public discontent. Whether, and with what further concessions, the Tinubu administration can shore up support for its market-oriented economic reforms are major questions in the near term.
Civic Space and Elections Nigeria’s civic space has expanded since the return of civilian authority in 1999. Today, Nigeria’s civil society comprises a broad range of advocacy groups, labor unions, after two terms in office (the “rotational presidency”).16 Both zoning and the
10 International Republican Institute (IRI), The Role of Political Parties in Nigeria’s Fledgling Democracy, 2020. 11 Brandon Kendhammer, “Getting Our Piece of the National Cake: Consociational Power Sharing and Neopatrimonialism in Nigeria,” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics vol. 21 (2015): 144. 12 See regular Internally Generated Revenue at State Level reports by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), at https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/.
13 See, e.g., Simon Kolawole, “The Trouble with Revenue Allocation,” The Cable, October 9, 2021. 14 See, e.g., remarks by Kaduna State Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai, “Next Generation Nigeria: What is restructuring and does Nigeria need it?” Chatham House, September 21, 2017.
15 Nigeria's Constitution of 1999 with Amendments through 2011, Chapter II, §3. 16 Until 1999, northerners had held the presidency for much of Nigeria’s post-independence history, mostly as military heads of state. In 1993, the military annulled an election that would have resulted in Nigeria’s first government led by an elected president from the south, leading to significant unrest. Some commentators have described the rotational presidency as an important innovation for reducing interethnic tensions and promoting a sense of fairness in the distribution of power; others criticize the convention as unevenly implemented or misguided. See, e.g., Iwok Iniobong, “2023: Nigeria’s power rotation controversy rages, amid clamour for competence,” Business Day, February 25, 2021.
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rotational presidency have been a subject of debate, including over which group or zone may be “due” for office. Perceived violations of such conventions have led to conflict. In 2011, frustrated expectations among northerners that a northerner would return to the presidency contributed to post-election riots that killed hundreds along ethnic and sectarian lines.17
Ethno-regional power-sharing arrangements in Nigeria are predicated, in part, on the concept of indigeneity, which is enshrined (albeit undefined) in the constitution. By this principle, Nigerians are classified either as “Indigenes,” whom the government recognizes as descended from a given area’s original inhabitants, or “settlers,” considered non-native. State and local authorities issue Indigeneity certificates, a process that can be subject to intense dispute—especially in the case of “settlers” whose families may have lived in an area for generations. By law and by practice, “Indigenes” enjoy preferential access to government employment, political participation, and education; “settlers” are disadvantaged or may be barred entirely from such opportunities.18 Tensions between “Indigenes” and “settlers” have been a recurrent aspect of violence in Nigeria.
Civic Space and Elections
Nigeria’s civic space has expanded since the return of civilian authority in 1999. Today, Nigeria’s civil society comprises a broad range of advocacy groups, labor unions, government watchdogs, and ethnic, cultural, and religious associations. Nonetheless, successive Nigerian and ethnic, cultural, and religious associations. Nonetheless, successive Nigerian
administrations governments have curtailed freedoms of speech, assembly, and the press. Activists and journalists have faced have curtailed freedoms of speech, assembly, and the press. Activists and journalists have faced
terrorism, cybercrime,terrorism or other charges for commenting on sensitive issues or other charges for commenting on sensitive issues
. The, and the State Department State Department
has accused successive has accused successive
Nigerian governments of using excessive force against protesters.22 A crackdown on protests against police brutality in 2020 drew condemnation, including from some Members of Congress (see Text Box).
The 2020 #EndSARS Protests23
17 Atiku also has accused Tinubu of forging his diploma from a U.S. university; pursuant to a U.S. court order, the university released Tinubu’s academic records and confirmed his graduation in October 2023. BBC, “Bola Tinubu diploma: No evidence Nigeria’s president forged college record,” October 11, 2023.
18 Camillus Eboh, “Nigeria’s NNPC spent $10 billion on fuel subsidy in 2022,” Reuters, January 20, 2023. 19 Chinedu Asadu, “Nigeria lets market set currency exchange rate to stabilize economy, woo investors,” Associated Press (AP), June 15, 2023.
20 In August 2023, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s outlook from negative to stable, citing Tinubu’s reform initiatives. See also Fitch Ratings, “Initial Reform Steps Positive for Nigeria’s Credit Profile,” June 8, 2023. 21 Chinedu Asadu, “A government shutdown in Nigeria has been averted after unions suspended a labor strike,” AP, October 3, 2023.
22 See annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices since 2000. 23 For more, see CRS Insight IN11525, Nigeria: #EndSARS Protests Against Police Brutality, by Tomás F. Husted.
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governments of using excessive force to disperse protesters.19
In 2019, several Members expressed concern over the arrest and trial of journalist and politician Omoyele Sowore, a U.S. permanent resident, following Sowore’s call for protests against Buhari.20 The Buhari administration’s violent response to the #EndSARS protests against police brutality in late 2020 drew criticism from several Members, part of a wave of condemnations that followed that crackdown (see Text Box). Some Members and other U.S. officials also denounced Buhari’s decision, in mid-2021, to ban the use of Twitter in Nigeria after Twitter officials deleted Tweets that Buhari had sent pledging to respond militarily to separatist violence in the southeast (see “Separatism in the Southeast”).21 The government lifted the Twitter ban in January 2022.
17 The 2011 zoning controversy followed the 2010 death of incumbent President Umaru Yar'Adua, a northerner. He was succeeded by his southern-born Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, who went on to win reelection in 2011. Many northerners, including some prominent figures within Jonathan's party, opposed Jonathan's candidacy on the grounds that a northerner should have held the presidency for two consecutive terms. For an account of this controversy and the post-election violence, see Human Rights Watch (HRW), Nigeria: Post-Election Violence Killed 800, May 2011.
18 On challenges facing non-Indigenes, see annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices; see also HRW, “They Do Not Own This Place”: Government Discrimination Against “Non-Indigenes” in Nigeria, 2006.
19 See annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices since 2000. 20 Senators Menendez, Schumer, Coons, and Booker and Representatives Gottheimer and Pascrell, Jr., wrote to Nigeria’s Attorney General expressing concern over Sowore’s arrest. Other Members also expressed concern. In the 117th Congress, S.Res. 241 (as introduced) notes Sowore’s case in the context of global press freedom threats.
21 Representative Karen Bass, “Statement on Twitter Ban in Nigeria,” June 9, 2021; see also State Department, “Nigeria’s Twitter Suspension,” June 10, 2021.
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The 2020 #EndSARS Protests22
In October 2020, video circulated on social media purporting to document an extrajudicial kil ing by members of
In October 2020, video circulated on social media purporting to document an extrajudicial kil ing by members of
the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a police unit that human rights groups had previously accused of abuses. the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a police unit that human rights groups had previously accused of abuses.
The protests that ensued were among the largest popular mobilizations in Nigeria’s history; the campaign gained The protests that ensued were among the largest popular mobilizations in Nigeria’s history; the campaign gained
steam as celebrities and world leaders, including some Members of Congress, expressed solidarity.steam as celebrities and world leaders, including some Members of Congress, expressed solidarity.
2324 The Buhari The Buhari
administration responded by dissolving SARS and announcing other police reforms, while deploying security forces administration responded by dissolving SARS and announcing other police reforms, while deploying security forces
to disperse demonstrations; witnesses accused authorities of recruiting or permitting gangs to attack protesters.to disperse demonstrations; witnesses accused authorities of recruiting or permitting gangs to attack protesters.
2425 The protests culminated on October 20, when police and military personnel reportedly used live fire to disperse The protests culminated on October 20, when police and military personnel reportedly used live fire to disperse
demonstrators gathered at the Lekki Tol gate and Alausa areas of Lagos State.demonstrators gathered at the Lekki Tol gate and Alausa areas of Lagos State.
2526 Observers accused security forces Observers accused security forces
of kil ing multiple civilians; in a 2021 report, a state-convened panel of inquiry described the events as a “massacre” of kil ing multiple civilians; in a 2021 report, a state-convened panel of inquiry described the events as a “massacre”
and accused authorities and accused authorities
of stymieing stymieing
the panel’sits investigation. investigation.
2627 Federal and Federal and
Lagos Statestate officials officials
have denied reports denied reports
of civilian fatalitiesof civilian fatalities
. To date,, and no security personnel no security personnel
have faced charges for abuses against #EndSARS protesters.
Nigeria has held six general elections since the return of civilian rule. Some observers described the 2019 polls, in which Buhari won reelection, as a regression in Nigeria’s democratic trajectory and a missed opportunity to build on the successes of the 2015 polls—which, despite flaws, were widely considered the most credible in Nigeria’s history.27 Disinformation, inflammatory rhetoric, and violence marred the pre-election period ahead of the 2019 elections; concerns on election day included vote buying, ballot secrecy violations, and irregularities in ballot collation, according to U.S.-funded election observers.28 After the polls, the State Department imposed visa restrictions on unnamed individuals “believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining democracy in Nigeria.”29 In late 2020, the State Department imposed additional visa restrictions on unnamed individuals for undermining subsequent state-level elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States.30
The next general elections are due in 2023. President Buhari is ineligible to run due to a two-term limit. Whether Nigeria’s political class will adhere to the rotational presidency arrangement in 2023 is a key question, with implications for political coalition-building and public perceptions of one of Nigeria’s defining power-sharing institutions. After two terms by a president of northern origins, some politicians and commentators argue that the post is “due” to the south.31 Others contend that Nigeria should abandon the rotation arrangement in 2023.32
22 For more, see CRS Insight IN11525, Nigeria: #EndSARS Protests Against Police Brutality, by Tomás F. Husted. 23 Several Members Tweeted in support of the #EndSARS protests and accountability for police abuses in Nigeria. In the 117th Congress, H.Res. 235 would express support for the demands of the #EndSARS protesters, among other aims.
24 Sam Olukoya, “Protesters attacked in Nigerian demos against police abuse,” Associated Press, October 15, 2020. 25 Stephanie Busari et al., “'They pointed their guns at us and started shooting,’” CNN, November 19, 2020. 26 Lagos State Judicial Panel of Inquiry on Restitution for Victims of SARS Related Abuses and Other Matters, Report
of Lekki Incident Investigation of 20th October 2020, 2021.
27 National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI), Nigeria International Election
Observation Mission Final Report, 2019.
28 Ibid. 29 State Department, “Imposing Visa Restrictions on Nigerians Responsible for Undermining the Democratic Process,” July 23, 2019.
30 State Department, “Imposing Visa Restrictions on Nigerians Responsible for Undermining the Democratic Process,” September 14, 2020.
31 Dapo Akinrefon, “Power must shift to South in 2023 - Southern, Middle Belt leaders,” Vanguard, February 11, 2022. 32 Boluwaji Obahopo, “Rotational Presidency is unconstitutional, let Nigerians make their choice – Gov Bello,” Vanguard, July 9, 2021.
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faced charges for abuses against #EndSARS protesters.
Corruption and U.S. Kleptocracy Recovery Efforts
Corruption in Nigeria is reportedly pervasive, and it has been the focus of extensive research, Corruption in Nigeria is reportedly pervasive, and it has been the focus of extensive research,
commentary, and civic activism.commentary, and civic activism.
3328 Surveys indicate widespread suspicion of public office-holders Surveys indicate widespread suspicion of public office-holders
and other government officials.and other government officials.
34 Various studies have sought to quantify the costs of corruption in Nigeria or in specific sectors of the economy, using various methodologies.35
29 Several state agencies work to combat corruption, including the Economic and Financial Crimes Several state agencies work to combat corruption, including the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC), which has Commission (EFCC), which has
been a focus ofreceived U.S. assistance and U.S. assistance and
has collaborated with U.S. collaborated with U.S.
agencies in law enforcement actions (agencies in law enforcement actions (
see see “Cybercrime, Financial Crime, and U.S. Responses”). ). These agencies have seized billions of dollars’ worth of ill-gotten assets and prosecuted a number These agencies have seized billions of dollars’ worth of ill-gotten assets and prosecuted a number
of current and former officials. Analysts have identified several challenges impeding their work, however, including political interference, resource gaps, and a slow-moving justice system.36
President Buhari, who campaigned on a pledge to root out graft, arguably has amassed a mixed anti-corruption record while in office. During his tenure, anti-corruption agencies have brought charges and/or secured convictions against several high-level officials. The Buhari administration of current and former officials. Nigeria’s government also has worked with foreign partners, including the United States, to repatriate the proceeds of also has worked with foreign partners, including the United States, to repatriate the proceeds of
past corruption (see Text Box). Nevertheless, some observers allege that Buhari has tolerated corruption by his own allies; his cabinet includes several figures previously accused of corrupt practices. His government also has maintained the use of certain practices that analysts describe as prone to diversion or waste, such as off-budget funds for security-related expenses.37past corruption.
U.S. Kleptocracy Recovery Efforts
The U.S. Government has acted to seize and recover proceeds of corruption in Nigeria located in or laundered
The U.S. Government has acted to seize and recover proceeds of corruption in Nigeria located in or laundered
through the United States, and to repatriate such funds for the benefit of the Nigerian people. U.S. attention has through the United States, and to repatriate such funds for the benefit of the Nigerian people. U.S. attention has
centered, in large part, on assets acquired by former military leader Sani Abacha and his co-conspirators, who centered, in large part, on assets acquired by former military leader Sani Abacha and his co-conspirators, who
embezzled bil ions of dol ars in public funds during Abacha’s rule (from 1993 until his death in 1998). In 2013, the embezzled bil ions of dol ars in public funds during Abacha’s rule (from 1993 until his death in 1998). In 2013, the
Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a civil forfeiture suit against over $625 mil ion in assets belonging to Abacha and Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a civil forfeiture suit against over $625 mil ion in assets belonging to Abacha and
his associates; pursuant to that suit, in 2014, DOJ seized roughly $480 mil ion in assets allegedly laundered through his associates; pursuant to that suit, in 2014, DOJ seized roughly $480 mil ion in assets allegedly laundered through
U.S. banks and stored in multiple jurisdictions.U.S. banks and stored in multiple jurisdictions.
3830 DOJ has sought to enforce this judgment, and some seized funds DOJ has sought to enforce this judgment, and some seized funds
have been repatriated to Nigeriahave been repatriated to Nigeria
: in 2020, DOJ transferred nearly $312 mil ion seized in the Isle of Jersey, a UK dependency, to the Nigerian government.39 DOJ.31 DOJ also has seized U.S. assets has seized U.S. assets
belonging toacquired by other Nigerian politicians.32 Some
24 Several Members tweeted in support of the #EndSARS protests and accountability for police abuses in Nigeria. In the 117th Congress, H.Res. 235 sought to express support for the #EndSARS protesters’ demands, among other aims.
25 Sam Olukoya, “Protesters attacked in Nigerian demos against police abuse,” Associated Press, October 15, 2020. 26 Stephanie Busari et al., “‘They pointed their guns at us and started shooting,’” CNN, November 19, 2020. 27 Lagos State Judicial Panel of Inquiry on Restitution for Victims of SARS Related Abuses and Other Matters, Report of Lekki Incident Investigation of 20th October 2020, 2021.
28 On patterns of corruption in Nigeria, see Matthew T. Page, A New Taxonomy for Corruption in Nigeria, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), 2018.
29 See, among others, Richard Kweitsu, “Amid growing insecurity, Nigerians fault police for corruption and lack of professionalism,” Afrobarometer Dispatch no. 715, October 11, 2023.
30 other Nigerian elites, including current Kebbi State governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, two former governors, and a former petroleum minister. Some Members of Congress have expressed concern over the possible diversion of funds repatriated to Nigeria.40 Particular scrutiny has centered on efforts by Nigerian authorities to transfer roughly $110 mil ion in funds seized
33 On patterns of corruption in Nigeria, see Matthew T. Page, A New Taxonomy for Corruption in Nigeria, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), 2018.
34 Afrobarometer, for instance, reports that nearly 60% of Nigerians believe most or all National Assembly members are corrupt (Afrobarometer, Round 7 data). See also Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index. 35 See, for instance, U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, Corruption in Nigeria: Patterns and Trends, 2019; PwC, Impact
of Corruption on Nigeria’s Economy, 2016. 36 See, among others, Matthew T. Page, Innovative or Ineffective? Reassessing Anti-Corruption Law Enforcement in
Nigeria, Global Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence (GI-ACE) Research Program, 2021.
37 Matthew T. Page, Camouflaged Cash: How ‘Security Votes’ Fuel Corruption in Nigeria, Transparency International, 2018; see also Center for Democracy and Development, Buhari’s Anti-Corruption Record at Six Years, 2021.
38 DOJ, “U.S. Forfeits Over $480 Million Stolen by Former Nigerian Dictator in Largest Forfeiture Ever Obtained DOJ, “U.S. Forfeits Over $480 Million Stolen by Former Nigerian Dictator in Largest Forfeiture Ever Obtained
Through a Kleptocracy Action,” August 7, 2014. Through a Kleptocracy Action,” August 7, 2014.
3931 DOJ, “U.S. Repatriates over $311.7 Million in Assets to the Nigerian People that were Stolen by Former Nigerian DOJ, “U.S. Repatriates over $311.7 Million in Assets to the Nigerian People that were Stolen by Former Nigerian
Dictator and His Associates,” May 4, 2020. Dictator and His Associates,” May 4, 2020.
40 Letters from Senator Charles Grassley to then-Director Deborah Connor, DOJ Money Laundering and Asset32 See, e.g., DOJ, “United States to Repatriate Nearly $1 Million to Federal Republic of Nigeria,” February 16, 2023.
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in the UK to Governor Bagudu, a top Abacha co-conspirator, pursuant to domestic agreements reached with Bagudu.41 U.S. authorities have opposed the proposed transfer to Bagudu, and are reportedly pursuing legal efforts to seize the funds.42Members have expressed concern over the possible diversion of funds repatriated to Nigeria.33 More broadly, some More broadly, Nigerian civil society Nigerian civil society
groupsorganizations have sought clarification on the disposition of have sought clarification on the disposition of
returned assets, alleging a lack of transparency in the use of repatriated funds.43returned assets.34
Interfaith Relations and Religious Freedom ConcernsConcerns35
According to Pew Research CenterAccording to Pew Research Center
polling, 93% of Nigerians surveyed in 2019 stated that , 93% of Nigerians surveyed in 2019 stated that
religion was very important in their lives, among the highest rates globally.religion was very important in their lives, among the highest rates globally.
4436 As noted above, As noted above,
Muslims and Christians constitute Muslims and Christians constitute
large majorities in the north and south, respectively, though majorities in the north and south, respectively, though
there are significant populations of Muslims in the south, and of Christians in the north. There is there are significant populations of Muslims in the south, and of Christians in the north. There is
extensive intra-religious diversity, such as between and within Sufi, Salafi, Shia, and heterodox extensive intra-religious diversity, such as between and within Sufi, Salafi, Shia, and heterodox
Muslims, and Catholics and Protestants of various denominations. Muslims, and Catholics and Protestants of various denominations.
Smaller groups of Nigerians practice other global or Indigenous religions or report no religious affiliation. According to the According to the
State Department, many Nigerians “syncretize indigenous animism State Department, many Nigerians “syncretize indigenous animism
or traditional practices with Islam or Christianity.”with Islam or Christianity.”
45
In general,37
While Nigeria has a long history of religious tolerance and nonviolent conflict resolution Nigeria has a long history of religious tolerance and nonviolent conflict resolution
between between
faith groups, the country has experienced extensive interreligious violence, notablyfaith groups; according to one analysis, “most of the time, and in most places, Nigerians with diverging religious convictions live and work together peacefully.”46 A 2020 Afrobarometer survey found that a large majority of Nigerian respondents would be content or would not care if their neighbor practiced a religion other than their own.47 State discrimination along religious lines has periodically roiled interfaith relations, however, and Nigeria has seen violence along religious lines, particularly in religiously mixed in religiously mixed
zonesareas of the north.38 Religious discrimination also has been an enduring problem at the state level, amid accusations that the federal government has taken limited action to address religious freedom concerns (see Text Box). of the north. That sectarian affiliation and ethnic identity often overlap can make it difficult to distinguish the role of religious animus as opposed to other forms of discrimination (e.g., anti-“settler” ethnic bias) during such events.
In 2019, the Trump Administration placed Nigeria on In 2019, the Trump Administration placed Nigeria on
athe “Special Watch List” for religious “Special Watch List” for religious
freedom freedom
concernsissues under the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA, P.L. 105-292, as under the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA, P.L. 105-292, as
amended)amended)
. In, and in 2020, it named Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for “having engaged 2020, it named Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) for “having engaged
in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom.” Designation as a CPC can in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom.” Designation as a CPC can
result in result in
various punitive measurespunitive measures
(e.g., aid cuts), subject to a waiver; President Trump waived , subject to a waiver; President Trump waived
any such measures for Nigeria, citing any such measures for Nigeria, citing
the U.S.national interest. interest.
4839 The Biden Administration The Biden Administration
did not designate Nigeria as a CPC in 2021 or 2022. Several Members of Congress and the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom have criticized Nigeria’s delisting.40 H.Res. 82, introduced in early 2023, would call for Nigeria’s designation as a CPC, among other provisions.
Religious Discrimination and Interfaith Conflict in Nigeria: Selected Concerns
Annual State Department religious freedom and human rights reports have highlighted various issues related to interfaith relations and religious freedom in Nigeria, including: Sharia Law and Blasphemy. Nigeria has a plural legal system in which English law, customary law, and—in the north—sharia (Islamic) law govern concurrently. Muslims in northern Nigeria have observed a form of sharia for centuries, though the jurisdiction of sharia courts was limited to personal matters after independence. Fol owing
33 Letters from Senator Charles Grassley to then-Director Deborah Connor, DOJ Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Section, April 1, 2020 and June 29, 2020; letter from Representatives Steve Chabot and Christopher Smith to then-Attorney General William P. Barr and then-Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, April 15, 2020.
34did not Recovery Section, April 1, 2020 and June 29, 2020; letter from Representatives Steve Chabot and Christopher Smith to then-Attorney General William P. Barr and then-Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, April 15, 2020.
41 William Clowes, “U.S. Opposes Nigeria Plan to Hand Looted Funds to Governor,” Bloomberg, February 21, 2020; and William Clowes, “U.K. Toes U.S. Line to Block Looted Funds for Nigeria Governor,” Bloomberg, April 6, 2020. 42 DOJ, “U.S. Enters into Trilateral Agreement with Nigeria and Jersey to Repatriate Over $300 Million to Nigeria in Assets Stolen by Former Nigerian Dictator General Sani Abacha,” February 3, 2020; William Clowes, “U.S. to Proceed With Case to Seize Nigerian Governor’s Funds,” Bloomberg, March 8, 2022. 43 The Guardian (Nigeria), “Return £4.2m Ibori loot to Delta State, Reps orders FG,” March 11, 2021. , “Return £4.2m Ibori loot to Delta State, Reps orders FG,” March 11, 2021.
4435 See CRS In Focus IF12234, Interfaith Relations and Religious Freedom in Nigeria, by Tomás F. Husted. 36 Pew Research Center, “The Global God Divide,” July 20, 2020. Pew Research Center, “The Global God Divide,” July 20, 2020.
4537 State Department, State Department,
2020 Report on International Religious Freedom: Nigeria. .
46 Abdul Raufu Mustapha and David Ehrhardt, “Diversity, Religious Pluralism, & Democracy,” in Creed & Grievance:
Muslim-Christian Relations and & Conflict Resolution in Northern Nigeria, ed. Abdul Raufu Mustapha and David Ehrhardt (Woodbridge: Boydell & Brewer, 2018): 341.
4738 A 2020 Afrobarometer survey found that a large majority of Nigerian respondents stated they would be content or would not care if their neighbor practiced a religion other than their own. Afrobarometer, “Nigerians show high tolerance for diversity but low trust in fellow citizens, Afrobarometer study Afrobarometer, “Nigerians show high tolerance for diversity but low trust in fellow citizens, Afrobarometer study
shows,” March 10, 2021. shows,” March 10, 2021.
4839 State Department, “Secretary of State State Department, “Secretary of State
'’s Determinations under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 and s Determinations under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 and
Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act of 2016,” January 13, 2021. See also CRS In Focus IF10803, Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act of 2016,” January 13, 2021. See also CRS In Focus IF10803,
Global Human Rights: International Religious Freedom Policy, by Michael A. Weber. , by Michael A. Weber.
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designate Nigeria as a CPC in 2021. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), an independent agency created by Congress, criticized Nigeria’s delisting.49
The specific grounds for Nigeria’s CPC designation (and subsequent delisting) were not made public. Annual State Department religious freedom and human rights reports have highlighted various issues related to interfaith relations and religious freedom in Nigeria, including:
Issues related to sharia law. Nigeria has a plural legal system in which English law, customary law (derived from customs in ethnic communities), and, in the north, sharia (Islamic) law govern concurrently. Muslims in northern Nigeria have observed a form of sharia for centuries, though the jurisdiction of sharia courts was limited to personal matters (e.g., marital disputes) after independence. After 40 See, e.g., Letter from Senators Hawley, Lankford, Cramer, Braun, Inhofe, Cotton, and Rubio to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, December 13, 2021; Representative Chris Smith, “Biden’s retreat from the noble and necessary fight to protect victims of religious persecution in Nigeria,” November 23, 2021; USCIRF, “USCIRF Appalled at Administration’s Removal of Nigeria from List of Violators of Religious Freedom,” November 17, 2021.
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Nigeria’s transition to civilian rule in 1999, several state governments in the Nigeria’s transition to civilian rule in 1999, several state governments in the
north reintroduced north reintroduced
sharia criminal codes, which now operate in 12 northern states and the Federal criminal codes, which now operate in 12 northern states and the Federal
Capital TerritoryCapital Territory
surrounding the capital. The introduction of . The introduction of
sharia criminal codes criminal codes
was controversial, and prompted prompted
interreligious clashes in parts of the northinterreligious clashes in parts of the north
, notably in the religiously mixed Kaduna State.
. Sharia courts may not compel participation by non-Muslims, courts may not compel participation by non-Muslims,
thoughbut non-Muslims non-Muslims may elect to have cases tried in sharia courts.50 Non-Muslims and Shia Muslims—a minority in the and Shia Muslims—a minority in the
majority largely Sunni north (see below)—reportedly have experienced discrimination Sunni north (see below)—reportedly have experienced discrimination
in the context of sharia enforcement.51under sharia.41 Religious freedom organizations have expressed particular concern over Religious freedom organizations have expressed particular concern over
periodic prosecutions prosecutions
offor blasphemy, which is blasphemy, which is
illegalil egal under both under both
sharia and customary law. and customary law.
5242 Secular courts Secular courts
of appeal have overturned several high-profile blasphemy convictions have overturned several high-profile blasphemy convictions
.
Anti-Shia repression. , but others—including the conviction, by a secular court, of prominent atheist Mubarak Bala in 2022—have stood. There also have been several instances of mob violence fol owing blasphemy allegations, including at least three lynchings since 2022.43 Anti-Shia Repression. Nigeria’s minority Shia Muslim community is concentrated in the Nigeria’s minority Shia Muslim community is concentrated in the
northwest of the countrynorthwest, and many belong to the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN), a , and many belong to the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN), a
group religious movement led by outspoken cleric led by outspoken cleric
Ibrahim Zakzaky, a longtime critic of the Nigerian governmentand longtime government critic Ibrahim Zakzaky. Since . Since
Zakzaky’s rise to prominence in the 1970s, he and his supporters have been involved in periodic Zakzaky’s rise to prominence in the 1970s, he and his supporters have been involved in periodic
clashes with state authoritiesclashes with state authorities
. as well as members of the Sunni community, which comprises a majority of Nigeria’s Muslim population. Zakzaky has been arrested on several occasions.53
Human rights groups have repeatedly accused security forces of using excessive force to disperse Human rights groups have repeatedly accused security forces of using excessive force to disperse
IMN gatherings. In 2014, for instance, soldiers IMN gatherings. In 2014, for instance, soldiers
reportedly fired on IMN members in Kaduna fired on IMN members in Kaduna
State, State,
killingkil ing 35 people, including three of Zakzaky’s sons. 35 people, including three of Zakzaky’s sons.
5444 In 2015, In 2015,
followingfol owing a confrontation a confrontation
with IMN members over a roadblock, the military reportedly with IMN members over a roadblock, the military reportedly
killedkil ed nearly 350 IMN members nearly 350 IMN members
in Kaduna and arrested Zakzaky and and arrested Zakzaky and
hundreds of others, charging Zakzaky with murder.45 Security forces kil ed dozens and arrested hundreds during hundreds of others, charging Zakzaky with murder and other
49 USCIRF, “USCIRF Appalled at Administration’s Removal of Nigeria from List of Violators of Religious Freedom,” November 17, 2021.
50 Some non-Muslims report a preference for sharia courts, viewing them as more efficient and less corrupt than secular courts. See USCIRF, Shari’ah Criminal Law in Northern Nigeria: Implementation of Expanded Shari’ah Penal
and Criminal Procedure Codes in Kano, Sokoto, and Zamfara States, 2017-2019, 2019.
51 USCIRF, Shari’ah Criminal Law; annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices since 2000. 52 USCIRF, “USCIRF Condemns Death Sentence for Yahaya Sharif-Aminu on Blasphemy Charges,” August 11, 2020; UNICEF, “UNICEF statement on sentencing of 13-year-old child to 10-years’ imprisonment with ‘menial labour’ for blasphemy,” September 16, 2020.
53 The extent of Zakzaky’s ties with Iran, and the possible implications of such ties for Iranian political and religious influence in Nigeria, have been subject to speculation in light of Zakzaky’s professed support for Iran’s government and virulent anti-U.S., anti-Israel, and anti-Semitic rhetoric. Iranian officials have expressed support for Zakzaky, and analysts contend that Iran has provided material support for the IMN, though the extent of such funding is unclear. See, e.g., Donna Abu-Nasr, “As Trump Makes Threats, Iran Makes Friends,” Bloomberg, March 8, 2017; Jacob Zenn, “A Shia “Boko Haram” Insurgency or Iranian Proxy in Nigeria? Not So Fast,” Jamestown Foundation, July 26, 2019. 54 State Department, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2014: Nigeria, 2015.
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crimes.55 Security forces killed dozens and arrested hundreds in response to ensuing IMN protests ensuing IMN protests
calling for Zakzaky’s release.calling for Zakzaky’s release.
5646 A state court acquitted Zakzaky of all charges in 2021. A state court acquitted Zakzaky of all charges in 2021.
Boko Islamist Extremism. The State Department has designated two Nigerian-origin Islamist extremist groups, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (IS-WA). The State Department has designated Boko Haram and IS-WA “entities of particular concern” for committing “particularly severe” religious freedom violations.57, as “entities of particular concern” under IRFA.47 (For background on Boko Haram and IS-WA, see (For background on Boko Haram and IS-WA, see
“Boko
Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province,” below” below.) Boko Haram gained notoriety for its brutality against any non-affiliates, targeting Muslims as well as Christians; IS-WA has generally refrained from kil ing Muslim civilians, focusing on Christian and government targets, though it has also brutally punished Muslims for failing to adhere to its interpretation of sharia.48.) Boko Haram’s founder preached an “exclusivist” form of Salafist Sunni Islam, rejecting Western influence and Christianity as well as more moderate forms of Islam.58 The group has threatened and assassinated Muslim leaders, including mainstream Salafis, for opposing the group, and has killed hundreds of Muslims in attacks on mosques.59 IS-WA split from Boko Haram in part citing objection to the practice of killing Muslims, and has generally focused attacks on state targets and Christians—though it, too, has attacked unaffiliated Muslims and forced local civilians to follow its religious precepts.60
Both Boko Haram and IS-WA have threatened, kidnapped, and killed Christians, including clergy and other leaders. They have destroyed numerous churches. Christians were among the victims of Christians were among the victims of
two mass kidnappings that have attracted sustained interest from Congress: Boko Haram’s two mass kidnappings that have attracted sustained interest from Congress: Boko Haram’s
abduction of 276 girls from Chibok (Borno State) in 2014 and IS-WA’s abduction of 110 girls abduction of 276 girls from Chibok (Borno State) in 2014 and IS-WA’s abduction of 110 girls
from Dapchi (Yobe State) in 2018. Dozens of from Dapchi (Yobe State) in 2018. Dozens of
those abducted in Chibok remain missing; of those those abducted in Chibok remain missing; of those
abducted in Dapchi, all have been released except a Christian, Leah Sharibu, whom IS-WA abducted in Dapchi, all have been released except a Christian, Leah Sharibu, whom IS-WA
reportedly has kept in captivity due to her refusal to convert to Islam.reportedly has kept in captivity due to her refusal to convert to Islam.
61 In the 117th Congress, H.Res. 319 would recognize the seventh anniversary of the Chibok kidnapping and call for the release of the remaining Chibok abductees and of Sharibu.
49 Middle Belt violenceViolence. Nigeria’s Nigeria’s
religiously and ethnicallyethno-religiously diverse “Middle Belt,” diverse “Middle Belt,”
an informal, a variously defined zone of variously defined zone of
central Nigeria straddling the predominately Muslim north and the largely Christian southnorth and central Nigeria, has long been a theater for interreligious conflict. For decades, concerns , has long been a theater for interreligious conflict. For decades, concerns
in this region in this region
largely centered on recurrent riots centered on recurrent riots
and urban violence between Muslims and between Muslims and
Christians, often sparked by “an event of religious significance” such as an instance of alleged Christians, often sparked by “an event of religious significance” such as an instance of alleged
blasphemy.blasphemy.
6250 Such violence Such violence
has often coincided with often coincided with
ethnicpolitical disputes between “Indigenes”—whom the government recognizes as descended from a given area’s original inhabitants, entitling them to preferential access to government employment, political participation, and education—and “settlers,” considered non-native. disputes between “Indigenes” and “settlers” over the rightful “ownership” of territory and related issues, such as land use and elections (see “Federalism and Power-Sharing,” above). In the Middle Belt, “Indigenes” are often In the Middle Belt, “Indigenes” are often
Christians, of various ethnic groupsChristian, while many “settlers” are ethnic Hausa-Fulani Muslims.
41 Non-Muslims may elect to have their case tried in sharia courts; some non-Muslims view them as more efficient and less corrupt than secular courts. See USCIRF, Shari’ah Criminal Law in Northern Nigeria: Implementation of Expanded Shari’ah Penal and Criminal Procedure Codes in Kano, Sokoto, and Zamfara States, 2017-2019, 2019. 42 USCIRF, “USCIRF Condemns Death Sentence for Yahaya Sharif-Aminu on Blasphemy Charges,” August 11, 2020; UNICEF, “UNICEF statement on sentencing of 13-year-old child to 10-years’ imprisonment with ‘menial labour’ for blasphemy,” September 16, 2020.
43 Chinedu Asadu, “An atheist in northern Nigeria was arrested. Then the attacks against the others worsened,” AP, October 5, 2023.
44 State Department, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2014: Nigeria, 2015. 45 HRW, “Nigeria: End Impunity for Killings of Shia,” December 12, 2018. 46 Dionne Searcey and Emmanuel Akinwotu, “Nigeria Says Soldiers Who Killed Marchers Were Provoked. Video Shows Otherwise,” New York Times, December 17, 2018.
47 State Department, “Secretary of State’s Determinations under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 and Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act of 2016,” January 13, 2021.
48 International Crisis Group (ICG), After Shekau: Confronting Jihadists in Nigeria’s North East, 2022. 49 This Day, “Elusive Freedom as Leah Sharibu Marks Five Years in Captivity,” February 23, 2023. 50, while many “settlers” are ethnic Hausa-Fulani Muslims.
55 HRW, “Nigeria: End Impunity for Killings of Shia,” December 12, 2018. 56 Dionne Searcey and Emmanuel Akinwotu, “Nigeria Says Soldiers Who Killed Marchers Were Provoked. Video Shows Otherwise,” New York Times, December 17, 2018.
57 State Department, “Secretary of State's Determinations under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 and Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act of 2016,” January 13, 2021.
58 Alex Thurston, “The Disease is Unbelief”: Boko Haram’s Religious and Political Worldview, The Brookings Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World, 2016.
59 Alex Thurston, “Nigeria’s Mainstream Salafis between Boko Haram and the State,” Islamic Africa vol. 6 (2015): 109-134.
60 Bulama Bukarti, “ISWA’s Recent Attacks Could Signal a New, Deadlier Approach in Nigeria,” Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Blog, June 19, 2020; Deutsche Welle, “Islamic militant attacks in Borno kill dozens,” June 14, 2020; International Crisis Group (ICG), Facing the Challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province, 2019.
61 Chika Oduah, “‘She refused to convert to Islam,’ 85 days on, kidnapped schoolgirl Leah Sharibu remains in captivity,” CNN, May 15, 2018.
62 Laura Thaut Vinson, “Pastoralism, Ethnicity, and Subnational Conflict Resolution in the Middle Belt,” in A. Carl Laura Thaut Vinson, “Pastoralism, Ethnicity, and Subnational Conflict Resolution in the Middle Belt,” in A. Carl
Levan and Patrick Ukata, eds., Levan and Patrick Ukata, eds.,
The Oxford Handbook of Nigerian Politics (Oxford University Press, 2019): 682. (Oxford University Press, 2019): 682.
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In the past decade, observer attention has focused on intercommunal violence between Muslim,
In the past decade, observer attention has focused on intercommunal violence between Muslim,
ethnic Fulani herders and Christian farmers (see ethnic Fulani herders and Christian farmers (see
“Rural Insecurity: Herder-Farmer Conflict and
“Banditry”)Banditry”). Many analysts contend that religious ideology . Many analysts contend that religious ideology
generally is not a primary driver of is not a primary driver of
such conflicts, which such conflicts, which
appear to stem primarily from disputes over resource controlthey argue stem from resource disputes pitting pitting
“Indigene” groups against “settler” Fulani.“Indigene” groups against “settler” Fulani.
6351 Nonetheless, the violence has aggravated sectarian Nonetheless, the violence has aggravated sectarian
tensions and spurred tensions and spurred
killingkil ing along religious lines, including attacks on religious leaders and places of worship.
Foreign Affairs Niger. In July 2023, military officers overthrew the elected president in neighboring Niger, which became the sixth country in Africa where a military has seized power since 2020. In response, President Tinubu—who had been elected as Chair of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) two weeks prior—closed land borders with Niger, cut off electricity exports (Nigeria supplies most of Niger’s electricity), and announced sanctions on the coup leaders. Other ECOWAS heads of state joined Tinubu in instituting border closures and economic sanctions. In August, after ECOWAS threatened the use of force to restore constitutional order in Niger, Tinubu wrote to Nigeria’s Senate seeking support for, among other things, a “military build-up and deployment of personnel for military intervention... should [the junta] remain recalcitrant.”52
The move spurred blowback across Nigeria’s political class, particularly in the north, which is connected to Niger through commercial and demographic ties.53 The ECOWAS sanctions and proposed use of military force have also been widely criticized by politicians and civil society groups within Niger. Mali and Burkina Faso, which are suspended from ECOWAS after their own coups, have pledged to defend Niger’s junta in the event of an intervention.54 In mid-August, ECOWAS activated its “standby force,” a nascent arrangement for joint member state military deployments. ECOWAS negotiations with the Nigerien junta were ongoing as of November 2023.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC, or China). China is Nigeria’s top source of imports, and one of its top export destinations. Chinese construction firms have undertaken a number of public works and infrastructure projects in the country, many financed wholly or partly by China’s Ex-Im Bank.55 Recently finished or ongoing projects include a deep-water port that opened in early 2023; the 700-megawatt Zungeru Hydroelectric Power Project, now in development; and several new railways and highways.56 Nigeria has been a leading regional recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and hosts two special economic zones partly financed by Chinese authorities or state enterprises that offer incentives to Chinese manufacturing firms.57 China also
51 along religious lines. The State Department reports that “Christian groups stated that Muslim Fulani herdsman were targeting Christian farmers because of their religion. Local Muslim and herder organizations said unaffiliated Fulani were the targets of Christian revenge killings.”64
Security Challenges
The sections below provide overviews of selected security issues in Nigeria that have attracted attention from Members of Congress and other U.S. policymakers. Some challenges, such as the Boko Haram/IS-WA conflict, human and drug trafficking, and financial and cybercrime, have consequences that extend beyond Nigeria’s borders. Some general trends may be observed across patterns of insecurity and government responses:
Security forces are under strain. Nigeria’s military is deployed to all 36 of Nigeria’s states on internal security operations, stretching thin a force estimated to comprise 143,000 active duty personnel.65 Defense spending has risen over the past decade, and the government has expanded its military capabilities with the acquisition of new ground and air assets, but the military often has struggled to restore stability and state authority in zones cleared during periodic offensives. Some analysts have called for extensive military reform to address issues related to funding, leadership, oversight, and personnel training, deployment, and welfare.66 Surveys indicate low troop morale and discontent with poor equipment and living conditions, infrequent rotation, and other issues.67 Nigeria’s national police force is under-resourced, and many officers are deployed as private security, resulting in a reliance on the military for law enforcement tasks.
Corruption is a key challenge. Procurement fraud, embezzlement, and other forms of corruption have reportedly drained defense sector resources.68 By many accounts, there is little transparency into defense budgeting and procurement; several military officers have been convicted of self-enrichment. Off-budget expenditures are common. Transparency International has described Nigeria’s legislature as “largely passive and compliant” in its oversight of defense issues.69
63 A literature review by Search for Common Ground (SFCG), a U.S. NGO engaged in conflict prevention efforts in the A literature review by Search for Common Ground (SFCG), a U.S. NGO engaged in conflict prevention efforts in the
Middle Belt, found “broad consensus that while religious divisions are a contributing source of conflict between Middle Belt, found “broad consensus that while religious divisions are a contributing source of conflict between
pastoralist and non-pastoralist ethnic groups [in Nigeria], they are not the sole or primary cause.” See Leif Brottem and pastoralist and non-pastoralist ethnic groups [in Nigeria], they are not the sole or primary cause.” See Leif Brottem and
Andrew McDonnell, Andrew McDonnell,
Pastoralism and Conflict in the Sudano-Sahel: A Review of the Literature, SFCG, 2020. For an , SFCG, 2020. For an
analysis that emphasizes the role of religious divisions in the violence, see UK All-Party Parliamentary Group for analysis that emphasizes the role of religious divisions in the violence, see UK All-Party Parliamentary Group for
International Freedom of Religion or Belief, International Freedom of Religion or Belief,
Nigeria: Unfolding Genocide?, 2020. , 2020.
64 U.S. Department of State, 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Nigeria, 2021. 65 International Institute for Security Studies (IISS), The Military Balance 2022, 2022. 66 ICG, Nigeria: The Challenge of Military Reform, 2016; Matthew Page, “Nigeria’s New Military Chiefs Face Uphill Battle,” Chatham House, February 11, 2021. July 14, 2020. In 2021, Nigeria’s Defense Ministry commissioned two panels to provide recommendations related to defense sector reform; the outcomes of that effort remains to be seen.
67 Temitope B. Oriola, “Nigerian Soldiers on the War Against Boko Haram,” African Affairs vol. 120 no. 479 (2021). 68 Eva Anderson and Matthew T. Page, Weaponising Transparency: Defense Procurement Reform as a
Counterterrorism Strategy in Nigeria, Transparency International (TI) Defense and Security, 2017.
69 TI Defense and Security, Government Defense Integrity Index 2020: Nigeria, 2021.
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1052 Ruth Olurounbi, “Nigerian Leader Seeks Approval for Potential Deployment in Niger,” Bloomberg, August 4, 2023. 53 Elian Peltier and Ismail Alfa, “No More Coups in West Africa, Nigeria’s Leader Vowed. Niger Called His Bluff.” New York Times, August 9, 2023.
54 Reuters, “Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso sign Sahel security pact,” September 16, 2023. 55 For an overview of available information on Chinese investment and construction activities in Nigeria, see the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)-China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) databases and American Enterprise Institute (AEI)’s China Global Investment Tracker. 56 On Chinese railway projects in Nigeria, see Yunnan Chen, China’s Role in Nigerian Railway Development and Implications for Security and Development, U.S. Institute of Peace, 2018.
57 Yunnan Chen, “Africa’s China”: Chinese Manufacturing Investments in Nigeria in the Post-Oil Boom Era and Channels for Technology Transfer, SAIS-CARI, 2020.
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has provided financing to support expansions of Nigeria’s information and communication technology infrastructure; Chinese technology firm Huawei has been involved in these efforts.58 In the past two decades, China has become a top supplier of military equipment to Nigeria; recent Nigerian acquisitions include tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, drone systems, and artillery.
Some commentators have criticized the alleged opacity of Chinese loans to Nigeria, and raised concerns over potential threats to Nigeria’s sovereignty arising from indebtedness to China.59 Researchers also have raised concerns related to illicit activity by Chinese commercial actors in Nigeria, such as bribery, illegal logging, and illicit fishing.60 Preliminary polling results from Afrobarometer, a regional survey group, suggest that China’s influence is viewed as mostly positive by nearly half of Nigerians, against roughly 40% for the United States, though Nigerians’ positive perceptions of both China and the United States have declined considerably since 2019.61
Russia. Russia has been a major supplier of military equipment, including attack helicopters, to Nigeria; Nigeria also operates Soviet-made military equipment acquired from the Soviet Union or third countries. Nigeria and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement in 2021. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has been a point of friction in bilateral ties. The war has roiled global food, fuel, and fertilizer markets, harming Nigeria’s economy, and former President Buhari alleged that weapons from the Russia-Ukraine war had been diverted into Nigeria and the wider region.62 Nigeria has voted with the United States on 4 of 6 U.N. General Assembly resolutions on the Russia-Ukraine war, but (alongside many other African countries) abstained from two, to suspend Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council, and to call for Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine.63 In April 2023, Russia stated that it would send a shipment of potash (used in fertilizer production) to Nigeria free of charge, though the delivery has faced delays.64 In July 2023, Vice President Kashim Shettima led Nigeria’s delegation to the Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow.
Israel-Hamas Conflict. President Tinubu has called for a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and urged a “peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue.”65 Public opinion concerning the conflict appears somewhat divided: some Muslim organizations have protested in solidarity with the Palestinian people and called for a review of bilateral relations with Israel, while the country’s main Christian association issued a statement recognizing Israel’s right to self-defense, while “emphasiz[ing] the importance of proportionality and the avoidance of harm to innocent civilians.” 66 In early November, Nigeria’s Senate passed a resolution calling on the Tinubu administration to support an end to the conflict and to press for a two-state solution.
58 Nils Hungerland and Kenddrick Chan, Assessing China’s Digital Silk Road: Huawei’s Engagement in Nigeria, LSE Ideas, 2021.
59 See, e.g., The Guardian (Nigeria), “Chinese loan and Nigeria’s sovereignty,” August 11, 2020. 60 Matthew T. Page, The Intersection of China’s Commercial Interests and Nigeria’s Conflict Landscape, 2018. 61 Results of the most recent round of Afrobarometer polling, shared via Afrobarometer’s official X (formerly Twitter) account (@afrobarometer), April 25, 2023, at https://twitter.com/afrobarometer/status/1650859906193555456.
62 Timothy Obiezu, “Nigerian President: Ukraine War Funneling Arms, Fighters into Lake Chad Basin,” Voice of America (VOA), November 30, 2022.
63 The two votes on which Nigeria abstained were for U.N. General Assembly Resolutions ES-11/3 and ES-11/5. 64 Africa Intelligence, “Vice President Shettima to blame for Russian fertiliser delay,” October 10, 2023. 65 Ignatius Igwe, “Israel-Palestine War: Nigeria Calls For Ceasefire, Peaceful Resolution,” Channels Television, October 8, 2023.
66 Timothy Obiezu, “As Israel Fights Hamas, Support for Palestinians Grows in Nigeria,” VOA, October 20, 2023; and Christian Association of Nigeria, “CAN Press Statement on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,” October 11, 2023.
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Security Challenges The sections below provide overviews of select security issues in Nigeria that have attracted attention from some Members of Congress and other U.S. policymakers. Some general trends may be observed across patterns of insecurity and government responses:
Security forces are under strain. Nigerian military personnel are deployed to all 36 of Nigeria’s states on internal security operations, stretching thin a force estimated to comprise 143,000 active-duty personnel.67 Defense spending has risen over the past decade, and the government has expanded its military capabilities with the acquisition of new ground and air assets, but the military often has struggled to restore stability and state authority in zones cleared during periodic offensives or bombing raids. Surveys indicate low troop morale and discontent with poor equipment and living conditions, infrequent rotation, and other issues.68 Nigeria’s national police force also is under-resourced, and many officers are hired as private security for wealthy and middle-class Nigerians, foreigners, and businesses. Vigilante groups have emerged in some areas, varying in size and state backing, with uncertain prospects for future demobilization.
Security forces have committed extensive abuses. Observers have accused Nigerian security forces of extrajudicial killings, torture, and other human rights violations.69 Human rights groups estimate that thousands have died in Nigerian military custody since 2011.70 As discussed below (“Security Assistance and Cooperation”), reported security force abuses have raised concerns in Congress and complicated U.S. security cooperation.
Impunity is widespread. Perpetrators of violence often have eluded prosecution, as authorities have in many cases proved unable or unwilling to hold instigators to account. Where authorities have intervened, human rights groups have repeatedly accused security forces of conducting arbitrary mass arrests following episodes of violence.71 In some cases, authorities have released suspects without charge once tensions cooled.72 In others, detainees—including thousands arrested for alleged ties to Boko Haram—have remained in pre-trial detention for years, often in conditions that Amnesty International and other human rights groups describe as inhumane.73 Several thousand Boko Haram suspects faced prosecution in three mass trials held in 2017-2018 that resulted in hundreds of convictions; some observers raised concerns with those trials and assessed that prosecutions primarily targeted civilians or low-level offenders.74
Corruption is a key challenge. Procurement fraud, embezzlement, and other forms of corruption have reportedly drained defense sector resources.75 By many accounts, there is little transparency into defense budgeting and procurement; several military officers have been convicted of self-
67 International Institute for Security Studies (IISS), The Military Balance 2022, 2022. 68 Temitope B. Oriola, “Nigerian Soldiers on the War Against Boko Haram,” African Affairs, vol. 120, no. 479 (2021). 69 See, e.g., State Department annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices since 2009. 70 Amnesty International, “We Dried Our Tears”: Addressing the Toll on Children of Northeast Nigeria’s Conflict, 2020.
71 Annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices have consistently documented instances of arbitrary arrests by Nigerian security forces.
72 HRW, “Leave Everything to God”: Accountability for Inter-Communal Violence in Plateau and Kaduna States, Nigeria, 2013; AI, Harvest of Death: Three Years of Bloody Clashes Between Farmers and Herders in Nigeria, 2018.
73 Amnesty International, “We Dried Our Tears.” 74 HRW, “Nigeria: Flawed Trials of Boko Haram Suspects,” September 17, 2018; Allan Ngari and Akinola Olojo, Besieged but Not Relenting: Ensuring Fair Trials for Nigeria’s Terrorism Suspects, Institute for Security Studies, 2020. 75 Eva Anderson and Matthew T. Page, Weaponising Transparency: Defense Procurement Reform as a Counterterrorism Strategy in Nigeria, Transparency International (TI) Defense and Security, 2017.
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enrichment. Off-budget expenditures are common. Transparency International has described Nigeria’s legislature as “largely passive and compliant” in its oversight of defense issues.76
Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (IS-WA) Founded in the early 2000s as a Salafist Sunni Muslim reform movement, Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal Jihad (JAS)—more commonly known as Boko Haram, which roughly translates to “Western culture is forbidden”—evolved beginning in 2009 into one of the world’s deadliest extremist groups. It gained global notoriety for its brutal tactics, including its use of women and children as suicide bombers. IS-WA, an Islamic State affiliate that splintered from Boko Haram in
2016, has eclipsed its parent organization and established itself as the leading Islamist extremist group in the Lake Chad Basin region, comprising border regions of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger.77 In 2021, Boko Haram’s longtime leader committed suicide after coming under siege by IS-WA militants, prompting thousands of Boko Haram fighters and non-combatants living in the group’s strongholds to surrender to Nigerian authorities.
IS-WA has sought to consolidate its control in the northeast, warring with remnant Boko Haram cells while sustaining attacks on military personnel and other targets in Nigeria and neighboring states.78 Some former Boko Haram fighters, meanwhile, reportedly have relocated to join criminal gangs or emergent extremist cells based in northwest and north-central Nigeria (see below). While the Nigerian government regularly claims to have killed numerous militants in airstrikes, ground forces have struggled to restore stability in cleared zones. Analysts debate the extent of IS-WA’s ties with core IS and with other IS affiliates (notably IS-Sahel), but by some accounts collaboration with IS-Sahel may be growing.79 IS-WA appears to act independently, however, funding itself through “war spoils, extortion of the local population,” and taxation of local commerce.80 In 2021, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM)’s then-Commander assessed that “neither Boko Haram nor ISIS-WA today pose a significant threat to U.S. interests.”81 Both groups are U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs).
In 2016, the Nigerian government launched Safe Corridor, a de-radicalization and reintegration program for ex-combatants. Hundreds of men and boys have participated. Analysts have raised a number of concerns related to the program, including with poor screening that has resulted in misclassification of civilians as militants, abuses against participants, and opposition by some officials and communities to the reintegration of ex-militants into society.82 Observers contend that regional military coordination has moderately improved since the 2014 activation of the
76 TI Defense and Security, Government Defense Integrity Index 2020: Nigeria, 2021. 77 Boko Haram pledged allegiance to IS in 2015; a leadership dispute later fractured the group, and a splinter faction gained the Islamic State’s recognition as IS-WA in 2016. See CRS In Focus IF10173, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province.
78 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Fighting among Boko Haram Splinters Rages On,” May 30, 2023. 79 On reports of growing collaboration, see U.N. doc. S/2023/549. 80 UNSC, Monitoring Team’s Twenty-ninth report, UN doc. S/2022/83, February 3, 2022. 81 Testimony of AFRICOM Commander General Stephen Townsend before the Senate Armed Services Committee, U.S. Africa Command and U.S. Southern Command, hearing, 117th Cong., 1st sess., April 28, 2021. 82 ICG, An Exit from Boko Haram? Assessing Nigeria’s Operation Safe Corridor, 2021.
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African Union-authorized Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF)—comprising troops from Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger—though low interoperability and inconsistent funding, among other challenges, have reportedly limited its effectiveness.83
As of August 2023, according to U.N. data, an estimated 11.1 million people in the Lake Chad Basin were in need of humanitarian assistance.84 Approximately 2.4 million people are displaced in Nigeria; another 355,000 are refugees in neighboring countries, most in Niger and Cameroon.85 Humanitarian groups have faced severe access constraints and other operational challenges. Boko Haram and IS-WA have kidnapped and killed humanitarian workers and destroyed aid facilities. Nigeria’s military has restricted humanitarian access beyond urban areas and repeatedly accused international humanitarian agencies of supporting terrorists, at times suspending their operations.
Rural Insecurity: Herder-Farmer Conflict and Banditry Rural violence has surged in Nigeria over the past decade, especially in the northwest and central “Middle Belt” regions (see map).86 Some observers attribute the increase to a rise in conflicts between farmers and herders over access to land and resources and related issues. Such violence has intensified as socioeconomic,
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Security forces have committed extensive abuses. Observers have accused Nigerian security forces of extrajudicial killings, torture, and other human rights violations.70 Human rights groups estimate that thousands have died in Nigerian military custody since 2011.71 The State Department reports that security force impunity is a “significant problem.”72
Militia activity has expanded. Vigilante groups have emerged in conflict-affected zones across the country, varying in size, formality, legality, and government backing. In the northeast, for instance, members of the Civilian Joint Task Force (C-JTF), which organized to help combat Boko Haram, have received state support and participated in military operations.73 Human rights organizations have accused vigilantes of extrajudicial killings and other human rights abuses, and prospects for their future demobilization are uncertain.74
Impunity is widespread. Perpetrators of violence often have eluded prosecution, as authorities have in many cases proved unable or unwilling to hold instigators to account.75 Where authorities have intervened, human rights groups have repeatedly accused security forces of conducting arbitrary mass arrests following episodes of violence.76 In some cases, authorities have released suspects without charge once tensions cooled.77 In others, detainees—including thousands arrested for alleged ties to Boko Haram—have remained in pre-trial detention for years, often in inhumane conditions.78 Several thousand Boko Haram suspects faced prosecution in three mass trials held in 2017-2018 that resulted in hundreds of convictions; observers raised concerns with those trials and assessed that prosecutions primarily targeted civilians or low-level offenders.79
70 See, e.g., State Department, annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices since 2009. 71 AI, “We Dried Our Tears”: Addressing the Toll on Children of Northeast Nigeria’s Conflict, 2020. 72 State Department, 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. 73 Daniel Agbiboa, “The Precariousness of Protection: Civilian Defense Groups Countering Boko Haram in Northeastern Nigeria,” African Studies Review vol. 64, No. 1 (2021): 192-216.
74 Center for Civilians in Conflict, Civilian Perceptions of the Yan Gora (CJTF) in Borno State, Nigeria, 2018. 75 For instance, an analysis of commissions of inquiry established following repeated episodes of violence in Plateau State between 1997 and 2014 found that, in general, “the recommendation to the government to investigate and prosecute perpetrators and instigators of violence has not been implemented.” Marjoke Oosterom and Dung Pam Sha, “Commissions of Inquiry in Plateau State, Nigeria,” IDS Working Paper vol. 2019, No. 531, 2019. 76 Annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices have consistently documented instances of arbitrary arrests by Nigerian security forces.
77 HRW, “Leave Everything to God”: Accountability for Inter-Communal Violence in Plateau and Kaduna States,
Nigeria, 2013; AI, Harvest of Death: Three Years of Bloody Clashes Between Farmers and Herders in Nigeria, 2018.
78 AI, “We Dried Our Tears.” 79 HRW, “Nigeria: Flawed Trials of Boko Haram Suspects,” September 17, 2018; Allan Ngari and Akinola Olojo, Besieged but Not Relenting: Ensuring Fair Trials for Nigeria’s Terrorism Suspects, Institute for Security Studies, 2020.
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Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province80
Founded in the early 2000s as a Salafist Sunni Muslim reform movement, Jama’tu Ahlis
Sunna Lidda’awati wal Jihad (JAS)—more commonly known as Boko Haram, which roughly translates to “Western culture is forbidden”—evolved beginning in 2009 into one of the world’s deadliest extremist groups. Violence involving Nigerian security forces, Boko Haram, and an Islamic State-affiliated splinter faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (IS-WA), is reported to have killed
over 40,000 people in Nigeria, mostly civilians, in the past decade.81 Boko Haram and IS-WA have kidnapped thousands more.82 Additionally, Amnesty International has estimated that “likely more than 10,000” people, including many children, have died in Nigerian custody during the conflict.83 Northeast Nigeria has been the epicenter of the conflict (see map above), though violence has spilled over Nigeria’s borders with neighboring Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. The State Department has designated Boko Haram and IS-WA as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and as Specially Designated Global Terrorists.
More than a decade since the onset of conflict in 2009, prospects for an end to hostilities remain tenuous. Since splitting from Boko Haram in 2016, IS-WA has come to surpass Boko Haram in capacity and size. As of early 2022, U.N. monitors estimated IS-WA to have 4,000-5,000 fighters.84 The group regularly attacks military facilities, killing soldiers and looting materiel, and funds itself through raiding, kidnapping for ransom, and taxing local populations and commerce. Primarily active in northeast Nigeria, IS-WA also continues to mount attacks in neighboring countries, primarily targeting local military positions. U.N. investigators report that IS-WA has links to another IS faction, known as IS-Greater Sahara, active in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, though each group appears primarily focused on local aims.85 In 2021, IS-WA militants killed Boko Haram’s leader, prompting thousands of people, including ex-Boko Haram fighters, their families, and civilians fleeing Boko Haram-held zones, to surrender to authorities. A number of Boko Haram commanders reportedly joined IS-WA, while one remnant Boko Haram faction remains active around Lake Chad.86 Other former Boko Haram fighters reportedly have relocated to join criminal gangs or emergent extremist cells based in northwest and north-central Nigeria (see “Rural Insecurity: Herder-Farmer Conflict and “Banditry” below).
Since a wave of casualties in 2018, the Nigerian military has clustered in urban “super camps,” effectively ceding control of rural zones and limiting humanitarian access and civilian protection
80 A separate CRS product, CRS In Focus IF10173, Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, provides more information on this conflict.
81 Council on Foreign Relations, “Nigeria Security Tracker,” accessed November 29, 2021. 82 UNICEF, “UNICEF calls for end to recruitment and use of child soldiers,” February 14, 2022. 83 AI, "We Dried Our Tears.” 84 U.N. Security Council, Twenty-ninth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted
pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities, U.N. doc. S/2022/83, February 3, 2022.
85 Ibid. 86 Obi Anyadike, “Why Boko Haram fighters are surrendering,” The New Humanitarian, August 12, 2021.
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beyond key garrison towns. Military offensives and air force strikes on Boko Haram and IS-WA positions periodically claim numerous fatalities, but government forces have struggled to restore stability or maintain security in cleared zones. Regional military coordination is considered to have improved since the 2014 activation of the African Union-authorized Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising troops from Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, though inconsistent regional engagement and low interoperability, among other challenges, are viewed as having limited its effectiveness.87
In 2016, the Nigerian government launched Safe Corridor, a de-radicalization and reintegration program for ex-combatants. Hundreds of men and boys have participated. Analysts have raised a number of concerns related to the program, including with poor screening that has resulted in misclassification of civilians as militants, abuses against participants, and opposition by some officials and communities to the reintegration of ex-militants into society.88 Efforts to reintegrate women and girls formerly associated with Boko Haram and IS-WA have been more limited.89
Nigerian security forces have reportedly committed extensive human rights abuses in the context of counterterrorism operations, including extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests, and torture.90 Nigeria’s Air Force, which has received U.S. training and equipment, has reportedly killed scores of civilians during air raids.91 Military abuses have posed challenges for U.S. security assistance (see “Security Assistance and Cooperation”).
Humanitarian Conditions in Northeast Nigeria
According to U.N. data, roughly 8.5 million people in northeast Nigeria require humanitarian assistance.92 As of January 2022, an estimated 2.2 million people were displaced within Nigeria, and some 330,000 Nigerians were outside the country as refugees, most in Niger and Cameroon.93 Humanitarian groups have faced severe access constraints and other operational challenges. Boko Haram and IS-WA have kidnapped and killed humanitarian workers and destroyed aid facilities. Nigeria’s military has restricted humanitarian access beyond garrison towns based on domestic laws proscribing engagement with terrorist entities without exception for humanitarian activities. The military has repeatedly accused international humanitarian agencies of supporting terrorists and at times has suspended their operations. Observers also contend that the laws and processes governing humanitarian delivery are onerous and prone to delays.94
87 ICG, What Role for the Multinational Joint Task Force in Fighting Boko Haram?, 2020. 88 ICG, An Exit from Boko Haram? Assessing Nigeria’s Operation Safe Corridor, 2021. 89 ICG, Returning from the Land of Jihad: The Fate of Women Associated with Boko Haram, 2019.
90 See, among others, AI, Stars on Their Shoulders. Blood on their Hands. War Crimes Committed by the Nigerian
Military, 2015; AI, “They betrayed us”: Women who survived Boko Haram raped, starved and detained in Nigeria, 2018; HRW, They Didn't Know if I was Alive or Dead, 2019; AI, “We Dried Our Tears.”
91 Chinedu Asadu, “Nigerian air force probes reports it killed civilians,” Associated Press (AP), September 16, 2021. 92 U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), “Lake Chad Basin Humanitarian Snapshot as of 17 January 2022,” January 17, 2022. 93 U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “Nigeria: All Population Snapshot,” January 2022. 94 Jacob Kurtzer, Out of Sight: Northeast Nigeria’s Humanitarian Crisis, CSIS, 2020.
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Rural Insecurity: Herder-Farmer Conflict and “Banditry”
Rural violence has surged in Nigeria over the past decade, especially in the northwest and central “Middle Belt” regions (see map).95 The insecurity has defied simple classification. Observers attribute heightening insecurity in part to a rise in conflicts between farmers and herders over resource access and related issues (e.g., crop damage caused by livestock). Such conflicts have intensified in recent years as various socioeconomic, political, and ecological trends have reduced political, and ecological trends have reduced
the compatibility of pastoral and farming livelihoods and raised the stakes of the compatibility of pastoral and farming livelihoods and raised the stakes of
competitionscompetition for for
resource access and control.96
As such conflicts have intensified, analysts have observed an “erosion of the social and economic fabric that binds together farmers and pastoralists,” and rising tensions and violence along ethnic lines.97resource access
and control.87 In the northwest, In the northwest,
herder-farmer clashes typically pit ethnic Fulani herders against ethnic clashes typically pit ethnic Fulani herders against ethnic
Hausa farmers, two predominatelyHausa farmers, two predominately
- Muslim groups. In the Middle Belt, as noted above, Muslim groups. In the Middle Belt, as noted above,
much of the violence most violence has involved Fulani herders and Christian farmers of various ethnic groups. Hate has involved Fulani herders and Christian farmers of various ethnic groups. Hate
speech has proliferated, with speech has proliferated, with
some analysts expressing particular concern over rhetoric that attributes analysts expressing particular concern over rhetoric that attributes
unified, unified,
often nefarious aims to the Fulani—nefarious aims to the Fulani—
a diverse andan expansive ethnic group that spans much of West Africa.88
Mounting herder-farmer violence has provided a pretext for a broader escalation of insecurity; ethnic militias have mobilized, and lines between conflict drivers have blurred as violence has grown to encompass resource disputes, reprisal killings, and criminality. Media often refer to Fulani armed groups as “bandit” gangs. Among other incidents, bandits have abducted hundreds of children in mass kidnappings, collecting millions of dollars in ransom; intercepted a commuter
83 See, e.g., Onuoha et al., A quest to win the hearts and minds: Assessing the Effectiveness of the Multinational Joint Task Force, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network, 2023.
84 U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), “Lake Chad Basin Humanitarian Snapshot as of 28 August 2023,” September 8, 2023.
85 U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “Operational Data Portal: Nigeria,” accessed October 16, 2023. 86 expansive ethnic group that lives across much of Central and West Africa (see Text Box).
Fulani Pastoralists in Nigeria
The Fulani are one of the largest ethnic groups in Africa, spanning much of Central and West Africa. In general, Fulani are prominent in cattle rearing—though not all Fulani practice pastoralism, and there is wide variation in Fulani living patterns (e.g., urban or rural, nomadic or settled). As violence involving Fulanis has escalated in Nigeria, some commentators have portrayed the violence as a coordinated effort to “Fulanize” or “Islamize” the country, echoing longstanding complaints among Christian communities in the Middle Belt about perceived domination by Hausa-Fulani Muslims.98 The prominence of Fulanis in Nigeria’s armed forces, which partly reflects patterns of colonial administration, has stoked such perceptions. That President Muhammadu Buhari is a Fulani Muslim livestock owner has fueled accusations of his support for attacks by Fulani pastoralists.99 Many analysts object to characterizations of Nigeria’s Fulani as internally homogeneous and narratives attributing herder-farmer violence to a coordinated religious or ideological agenda on the part of Fulani pastoralists.100 Local
95 The Middle Belt is an unofficial, variously defined region; there is debate over which states it includes. This map is The Middle Belt is an unofficial, variously defined region; there is debate over which states it includes. This map is
not intended to authoritatively demarcate the Middle Belt. In some cases, definitions of the Middle Belt typically only not intended to authoritatively demarcate the Middle Belt. In some cases, definitions of the Middle Belt typically only
include part of a state’s territory (e.g., southern Kaduna generally is included, while northern Kaduna is not). The CRS include part of a state’s territory (e.g., southern Kaduna generally is included, while northern Kaduna is not). The CRS
graphic above is based on descriptions in Moses E. Ochonu, graphic above is based on descriptions in Moses E. Ochonu,
Colonialism by Proxy: Hausa Imperial Agents and Middle
Belt Consciousness in Nigeria (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2014) and ACAPS, “Nigeria,” among others. (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2014) and ACAPS, “Nigeria,” among others.
9687 On these trends, see Leif Brottem and Andrew McDonnell, On these trends, see Leif Brottem and Andrew McDonnell,
Pastoralism and Conflict; ICG, ; ICG,
Herders against
Farmers: Nigeria’s Expanding Deadly Conflict, 2017; Adam Higazi and Zahbia Yousuf, , 2017; Adam Higazi and Zahbia Yousuf,
From Cooperation to
Contention: Political Unsettlement and Farmer-Pastoralist Conflicts in Nigeria, Conciliation Resources, 2017. Conciliation Resources, 2017.
97 Leif Brottem and Andrew McDonnell, Pastoralism and Conflict. 98 Michael Nwankpa, “The North-South Divide: Nigerian Discourses on Boko Haram, the Fulani, and Islamization,” Hudson Institute, 2021. For background on tensions in the Middle Belt, see Moses E. Ochonu, Colonialism by Proxy.
99 ICG, Herders against Farmers: Nigeria’s Expanding Deadly Conflict, September 2017. 100 See, e.g., Leif Brottem, “The Growing Complexity of Farmer-Herder Conflict in West and Central Africa,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies, July 12, 2021; Adam Higazi and Zahbia Yousuf, From Cooperation to Contention88 See, e.g., Kingsley L. Madueke, Driving Destruction: Cattle Rustling and Instability in Nigeria, Global Initiative on Transnational Organized Crime, 2023.
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train, taking dozens hostage; downed a military jet; and killed hundreds in a series of massacres. In some areas, bandits exert territorial control, extorting local communities and providing basic services, such as settling local disputes.89 In turn, vigilante groups have formed to oppose the bandits, and have reportedly indiscriminately targeted Fulani communities in some areas.90
In this context, some Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
peace advocates, both Christian and Muslim, have warned that such discourses may stoke intercommunal tensions and further complicate attempts at resolution.101 In this regard, such narratives reportedly have provoked reprisal kil ings targeting innocent Fulani, and the misattribution of attacks to Fulani herders.102 Such trends may, in turn, incite Fulani support for, or participation in, armed violence under the banner of protecting fellow Fulani.103
Mounting herder-farmer violence has provided a pretext for a broader escalation of insecurity in the north and Middle Belt. Ethnic militias have mobilized, and lines between conflict drivers have blurred as violence has grown to encompass resource disputes between herders and farmers, gang-style violence by rival ethnic militia, and opportunistic criminality. In some zones of the northwest, gangs exert territorial control, taxing local populations and, in some cases, providing rudimentary services (e.g., law enforcement).104
Domestic media have often referred to the armed groups as “bandit” gangs; reporters and state authorities have increasingly referred to them as “insurgents” or “terrorists” as attacks have escalated. Attacks on villages in the northwest and Middle Belt have periodically claimed dozens of fatalities. In 2020-2021, attackers abducted hundreds of children in a series of high-profile mass kidnappings targeting schools, collecting millions of dollars in ransom and attracting international attention. Gangs also have kidnapped and killed local politicians and security personnel; in August 2021, attackers raided a defense academy and downed a military jet.105
In this context, analysts and U.S. officials have expressed concern over the prospects for Islamist analysts and U.S. officials have expressed concern over the prospects for Islamist
extremists to gain a foothold beyond extremists to gain a foothold beyond
Nigeria’s northeast.106 Alarm has escalated asthe northeast.91 Among other trends, Ansaru—an Ansaru—an
Al Qaeda-affiliated Boko Haram splinter faction and U.S.-designated FTO that appeared dormant Al Qaeda-affiliated Boko Haram splinter faction and U.S.-designated FTO that appeared dormant
as of 2015—has as of 2015—has
apparently reactivated in reactivated in
Nigeria’s north-central region, and asthe northwest and Middle Belt, reportedly led by former Boko former Boko
Haram members have relocated to the northwest.107 Researchers assert that cooperation between “bandits” and extremists remains limited, while noting that some gangs have at times recruited or collaborated with Islamist extremists.108 Most “bandit”Haram fighters.92 Some analysts assert that bandits and extremists have collaborated in some cases, but have also clashed over control of territory.93 Most bandit gangs appear not to espouse a political or gangs appear not to espouse a political or
religious ideology, though some have mobilized under the banner of protecting Fulani.religious ideology, though some have mobilized under the banner of protecting Fulani.
109
The Buhari administration has expanded military operations in the northwest and Middle Belt, primarily involving Air Force strikes targeting gang encampments, with little discernible strategy to reassert state presence in cleared zones. Meanwhile, attempts to resolve herder-farmer disputes have faced challenges, as a plan to establish grazing reserves to address resource access disputes has been slow to progress amid political opposition and resistance from farmers and herders.110
101 Abdulaziz Abdulaziz, “Kukah warns against ‘anti-Fulani’ campaign,” Premium Times, July 16, 2019. 102 State Department, 2020 Report on International Religious Freedom.
103 Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Criminal Gangs Destabilizing Nigeria’s North West,” December 14, 2021. 104 James Barnett, “The Bandit Warlords of Nigeria,” New Lines Magazine, December 1, 2021. 105 Joe Parkinson and Drew Hinshaw, “Nigeria’s Gangs Raised Millions by Kidnapping Children. Now the Government Can’t Stop Them.” Wall Street Journal, October 17, 2021. 106 In August 2020, the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command-Africa stated that “we’re seeing al-Qaida starting to make some inroads” in the northwest, but provided no further information about the assertion. State Department, “Digital Briefing on U.S. Efforts to Combat Terrorism in Africa during COVID,” August 4, 2020. 107 Jacob Zenn and Caleb Weiss, “Ansaru Resurgent,” in Perspectives on Terrorism vol. 15, no. 5 (2021). 108 James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz, “Northwestern Nigeria: A Jihadization of Banditry, or a “Banditization” of Jihad?” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) Sentinel, January 2022. 109 James Barnett, “The Bandit Warlords of Nigeria”; James Barnett and Murtala Rufai, “The Other Insurgency: Northwest Nigeria’s Worsening Bandit Crisis,” War on the Rocks, November 16, 2021. 110 ICG, Ending Nigeria’s Herder-Farmer Crisis: The Livestock Reform Plan, 2021.
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Separatism in the Southeast
In 2020-2021, Nigeria’s southeast saw a wave of violence between the Nigerian government and an emergent armed secessionist movement. Known as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), the separatists profess an aim to restore the would-be breakaway state of Biafra, which sought to secede from Nigeria in 1967, precipitating the devastating 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War.111
IPOB was founded in 2012 by Nnamdi Kanu,
a dual Nigerian-British citizen. It soon gained supporters primarily through the transmission of pro-secession radio broadcasts from its London-based media operation.112 Nigerian authorities arrested Kanu in 2015 for treason and other crimes, and reportedly killed at least 150 peaceful pro-Biafra protesters in the ensuing months.113 Kanu secured bail on medical grounds in 2017, and later jumped bail and fled to the United Kingdom and continued his broadcasts. IPOB messaging has sought to leverage historic perceptions of marginalization among the Igbo—Nigeria’s third-largest ethnic group, which led the original push for an independent Biafra—as well as newer grievances, such as disputes between Muslim herders and Christian farmers. (The Igbo are predominately Christian, and Igbo activists have long protested their perceived domination by the northern Hausa-Fulani and other ethnic groups.)
Violence escalated in mid-2020, as government forces conducted raids on IPOB meetings and arrested alleged IPOB sympathizers. IPOB later launched an armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), and in early 2021, suspected ESN militants began attacking state security forces, killing dozens. Amnesty International asserts that government forces killed at least 115 people in security operations in the South East between January and June 2021 and accused security forces of “sweeping mass arrests, excessive and unlawful force, and torture and other ill-treatment.”114 In June 2021, Kanu was re-arrested—allegedly in Kenya, though the circumstances of his arrest are unclear. He was repatriated to Nigeria, where he is in detention pending trial for terrorism and other charges. ESN attacks have declined since Kanu’s arrest, though violence has continued in the southeast, including killings of security personnel and brutal enforcement of weekly “sit-at-home” directives, during which criminals prohibit residents from leaving their homes.115
111 For an account of the war, see John de St. Jorre, The Nigerian Civil War (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1972), reprinted as The Brothers’ War: Biafra and Nigeria (London: Faber and Faber, 2009).
112 AI, Nigeria: ‘Bullets were raining everywhere’: Deadly repression of pro-Biafra activists, 2016. 113 Ibid. 114 AI, “Nigeria: At least 115 people killed by security forces in four months in country’s Southeast,” August 5, 2021. 115 Ebuka Onyeji, “Special Report: Inside Nigeria’s bloody war with IPOB where innocent citizens pay heavy price,” Premium Times, March 22, 2022; SBM Intel, Perception and Impact of IPOB-Ordered Sit-at-Home Protests, 2021;
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Insecurity in the Niger Delta and Gulf of Guinea116
Nigeria’s Niger Delta (see map), an oil-rich region in 94
Separatism in the Southeast Since 2020, the emergence of a separatist movement in southeast Nigeria has triggered a wave of violence and sparked fears of a return to large scale ethnic conflict. Known as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), the separatists profess an aim to restore the would-be breakaway state of Biafra, which attempted to split from Nigeria in 1967, precipitating the devastating 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War.95 IPOB messaging has sought to leverage historic perceptions of
marginalization among the Igbo—Nigeria’s third-largest ethnic group, which led the original push for an independent Biafra—as well as newer grievances, such as disputes between Muslim herders and Christian farmers. (The Igbo are predominately Christian, and Igbo activists have long protested their perceived domination by the northern Hausa-Fulani and other ethnic groups.)
Violence escalated in mid-2020, as government forces conducted raids on IPOB meetings and arrested alleged IPOB sympathizers. IPOB later launched an armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN). Unidentified gunmen have since killed dozens of state security personnel; human rights groups have accused security forces of killing over a hundred people in response,
89 James Barnett, “The Bandit Warlords of Nigeria”; James Barnett and Murtala Rufai, “The Other Insurgency: Northwest Nigeria’s Worsening Bandit Crisis,” War on the Rocks, November 16, 2021. 90 Obi Anyadike, “‘Everyone knows somebody who has been kidnapped’: Inside Nigeria’s banditry epidemic,” The New Humanitarian, January 30, 2023.
91 In August 2020, the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command-Africa stated that “we’re seeing al-Qaida starting to make some inroads” in the northwest, but provided no further information about the assertion. State Department, “Digital Briefing on U.S. Efforts to Combat Terrorism in Africa during COVID,” August 4, 2020. 92 James Barnett and Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, “A ‘Sahelian’ or a ‘Littoral’ Crisis? Examining the Widening of Nigeria’s Boko Haram Conflict,” Hudson Institute, April 5, 2023.
93 James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz, “Northwestern Nigeria: A Jihadization of Banditry, or a ‘Banditization’ of Jihad?” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) Sentinel, January 2022; and Daily Trust, “Dilemma Of Kaduna Community Caught Between Ansaru, Bandit Hostilities,” August 6, 2022.
94 James Barnett, “The Bandit Warlords of Nigeria”; James Barnett and Murtala Rufai, “The Other Insurgency: Northwest Nigeria’s Worsening Bandit Crisis,” War on the Rocks, November 16, 2021. 95 For an account of the war, see John de St. Jorre, The Nigerian Civil War (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1972), reprinted as The Brothers’ War: Biafra and Nigeria (London: Faber and Faber, 2009).
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and of mass arrests and torture.96 Violence surged around the 2023 general elections. In May 2023, gunmen attacked a U.S. government convoy as it traveled through Anambra State en route to a USAID project site, killing multiple locally employed staff as well as police.97 IPOB denied that attack and has disavowed violence generally, though splits in the group—and the fact that authorities have rarely arrested assailants—make it difficult to assess culpability.
Insecurity in the Niger Delta and Gulf of Guinea Nigeria’s Niger Delta, an oil-rich region in southern Nigeria that borders the southern Nigeria that borders the
Gulf of Guinea, has long been a site of Gulf of Guinea, has long been a site of
political unrest, criminality, and intermittent political unrest, criminality, and intermittent
armed militancy linked to local grievances armed militancy linked to local grievances
over perceived neglect, exploitation, and over perceived neglect, exploitation, and
environmental devastation by oil operators.117 oil-related environmental devastation.98 Militant violence peaked in the 2000s, with Militant violence peaked in the 2000s, with
regular attacks regular attacks
on oil facilities and personnel. In oil facilities and personnel. In
2009, the government announced an amnesty 2009, the government announced an amnesty
and introduced a monthly stipend for former and introduced a monthly stipend for former
Niger Delta militants. The program largely halted attacks on oil facilities, but
Niger Delta militants. The program largely halted attacks on oil facilities, but
some analysts contend it analysts contend it
has failed to address root causes of insecurity—has failed to address root causes of insecurity—
especiallyin particular, the perceived exploitation of local the perceived exploitation of local
resources without adequate consultation and compensation—and facilitate militants’ reintegration into productive civilian life.118 Threats and attacks on the oil sector intermittently resurge: in 2016, for instance, renewed attacks on oil facilities pushed oil production to a 30-year low.resources without adequate compensation. Attacks on oil facilities periodically resurge.99
The Niger Delta faces an array of additional security challenges. These include gang violence by
The Niger Delta faces an array of additional security challenges. These include gang violence by
secretive syndicates commonly known as “cults” or “confraternities,”secretive syndicates commonly known as “cults” or “confraternities,”
119100 intercommunal clashes, intercommunal clashes,
and and
violence related to political rivalries. The waters offshore of the Niger Delta arepolitical violence. The Gulf of Guinea is among the among the
world’s most dangerous for attacks on vessels; abducted crewmembers can be harbored for days or weeks within the Niger Delta’s network of creeks and mangrove forests pending ransom, while cargo stolen at sea is resold in a robust onshore black market. Oil theft, known as “bunkering,” from oil pipelines for artisanal refinement and black-market sale is a key challenge that reportedly involves criminal networks, politicians, state security personnel, and oil workers.120world’s most dangerous bodies of water for attacks on vessels. Oil theft, known as “bunkering,” from oil pipelines for artisanal refinement and black-market sale is another key challenge that reportedly involves criminal networks, politicians, security personnel, and oil workers.101 As discussed below (see “The Economy”), foreign oil firms have increasingly sought to divest from Nigeria’s onshore oil and gas industry, amid risks of insecurity, oil theft, and litigation from oil-producing communities due to oil spills.
Trafficking in Persons and Narcotics Trafficking
Trafficking in Persons. Nigeria is a source, transit point, and destination for human trafficking. Nigeria is a source, transit point, and destination for human trafficking.
In its Trafficking in Persons report for In its Trafficking in Persons report for
20212023, the State Department ranked Nigeria on Tier 2, , the State Department ranked Nigeria on Tier 2,
meaning it does not fully meet standards for eliminating trafficking but is making significant meaning it does not fully meet standards for eliminating trafficking but is making significant
efforts to do so. This represented an upgrade from 2020, when Nigeria ranked on the Tier 2 Watch List; the State Department attributed the improvement to “overall increasing efforts” to curb trafficking.121 Trafficking cases at times make global headlines, such as occasional discoveries of “baby factories,” a reportedly widespread practice in which women are held against their will, raped, and forced to deliver babies to be sold for illicit adoption. Edo State, in the southwest, is a hub for international sex and labor trafficking to Europe, particularly Italy, typically via Libya.122
116 A separate CRS product, CRS In Focus IF11117, Gulf of Guinea: Recent Trends in Piracy and Armed Robbery, provides more detail on maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea.
117
96 Amnesty International, “Nigeria: At least 115 people killed by security forces in four months in country’s Southeast,” August 5, 2021.
97 State Department, “Attack on U.S. Convoy in Nigeria,” May 17, 2023; see also James Barnett, “Understanding the ‘Unknown Gunmen’ Who Attacked a US Convoy in Nigeria,” Hudson Institute, May 18, 2023. 98 For a historical overview, see ICG, For a historical overview, see ICG,
Fuelling the Niger Delta Crisis, 2006. , 2006.
11899 See, e.g., Nextier SPD, See, e.g., Nextier SPD,
Assessment of the Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP), 2020. , 2020.
119100 BBC, “The ultra-violent cult that became a global mafia,” December 13, 2021. BBC, “The ultra-violent cult that became a global mafia,” December 13, 2021.
120101 Christina Katsouris and Aaron Sayne, Christina Katsouris and Aaron Sayne,
Nigeria’s Criminal Crude: International Options to Combat the Export of
Stolen Oil, Chatham House, 2013; TI, , Chatham House, 2013; TI,
Military Involvement in Oil Theft in the Niger Delta: A Discussion Paper, 2019. , 2019.
121 State Department, 2021 Trafficking in Persons Report: Nigeria, 2021. 122 HRW, “You Pray for Death”: Trafficking of Women and Girls in Nigeria, 2019.
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efforts to do so.102 Edo State, in southwest Nigeria, is a hub for international sex and labor trafficking to Europe, particularly Italy, typically via Libya.103
Narcotics Trafficking. Narcotics trafficking is another key challengeNarcotics trafficking is another key challenge
, and a and a
longstandinglong-standing focus focus
of U.S. law enforcement assistance. Nigeria is a source, transit point, and destination market for of U.S. law enforcement assistance. Nigeria is a source, transit point, and destination market for
drug trafficking, including of illicit recreational drugs (e.g., cocaine and heroin) as well as real drug trafficking, including of illicit recreational drugs (e.g., cocaine and heroin) as well as real
and counterfeit opioids and other pharmaceuticals (e.g., tramadol, codeine, and anti-malarials).and counterfeit opioids and other pharmaceuticals (e.g., tramadol, codeine, and anti-malarials).
123104
Cybercrime, Financial Crime, and U.S. Responses
Cybercrime in Nigeria has been a focus of U.S. law enforcement assistance and justice sector Cybercrime in Nigeria has been a focus of U.S. law enforcement assistance and justice sector
actions. Nigeria is a global hub for cybercriminal activity, including “419 scams”—advance-fee actions. Nigeria is a global hub for cybercriminal activity, including “419 scams”—advance-fee
fraud nicknamed for the article in Nigeriafraud nicknamed for the article in Nigeria
'’s penal code that outlaws s penal code that outlaws
fraudulent e-mailsfraud—as well —as well
as business email compromise as business email compromise
(BEC) attacks and identity theft. Nigerians also are prominent in attacks and identity theft. Nigerians also are prominent in
“romance scams,” in which conspirators defraud victims via fake online romantic relationships.“romance scams,” in which conspirators defraud victims via fake online romantic relationships.
Nigerian fraudsters reportedly stole millions of dollars in U.S. COVID-19 relief payments.105
U.S. and Nigerian authorities have collaborated to crack down on cybercrime, and coordinated
U.S. and Nigerian authorities have collaborated to crack down on cybercrime, and coordinated
U.S.-Nigerian law enforcement operations have led to hundreds of arrests. U.S. authorities have U.S.-Nigerian law enforcement operations have led to hundreds of arrests. U.S. authorities have
brought charges againstcharged a number of Nigerian nationals a number of Nigerian nationals
forwith internet fraud and money laundering. internet fraud and money laundering.
106 In a prominent case, U.S. authorities charged social media influencer Ramon Olorunwa Abbas (alias “Ray Hushpuppi”) with conspiring to engage in money laundering; DOJ also mentioned Abbas as a co-conspirator in a scheme to launder money for North Korean cybercriminals.124 In 2021, Abbas pled guilty and provided information that led to the indictment of six other individuals, including a decorated police official, Deputy Police Commissioner Abba Kyari.125 U.S. authorities are reportedly seeking Kyari’s extradition to the United States.126
In 2020, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on six Nigerian nationals for email and In 2020, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on six Nigerian nationals for email and
romance scams under Executive Order 13694 (as amended), pertaining to cybercrime.romance scams under Executive Order 13694 (as amended), pertaining to cybercrime.
127
Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and U.S. Assistance
As of March 24, 2022, Nigeria had reported approximately 255,000 COVID-19 infections, with 3,100 deaths.128 Several surveys assessing the presence of COVID-19 antibodies—an indicator of past infection—appear to indicate that official statistics significantly underreport Nigeria’s caseload.129 Nigeria’s rate of testing has been low compared to many countries in the region.130 Vaccination efforts have been slow due to in part to limited financial resources for COVID-19 vaccine procurement and global supply chain constraints. Nigeria has destroyed over one million 123 U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), At the Crossroads of Licit and Illicit: Tramadol and Other
Pharmaceutical Opioids Trafficking in West Africa, 2021.
124 DOJ, “Nigerian National Brought to U.S. to Face Charges of Conspiring to Launder Hundreds of Millions of Dollars from Cybercrime Schemes,” July 3, 2020; DOJ, “Three North Korean Military Hackers Indicted in Wide-Ranging Scheme to Commit Cyberattacks and Financial Crimes Across the Globe,” February 17, 2021.
125 DOJ, “Six Indicted in International Scheme to Defraud Qatari School Founder and then Launder over $1 Million in Illicit Proceeds,” July 28, 2021.
126 This Day, “Nigeria: Court to Hear Govt's Extradition Suit Against Abba Kyari March 23,” March 10, 2022. 127 Treasury Department, "Treasury Sanctions Nigerian Cyber Actors for Targeting U.S. Businesses and Individuals," June 16, 2020.
128 World Health Organization (WHO), “Nigeria: WHO COVID-19 Dashboard,” accessed March 24, 2022. 129 A survey led by the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) and Nigerian Institute for Medical Research (NIMR) found that as of late 2020, as many as 1 in 5 people in Lagos (home to an estimated 15-20 million people) may have been infected with COVID-19 at some point. NCDC, “NCDC and NIMR Release Findings of COVID-19 Household Seroprevalence Surveys in Four States of Nigeria,” February 22, 2021.
130 OECD, “Tackling the Coronavirus (COVID-19): West African perspectives,” accessed March 2, 2022.
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expired vaccine doses; Nigerian officials have accused donor countries of hoarding vaccines and delivering them shortly before their expiration.131 As of late March 2022, Nigeria had vaccinated roughly 4% of its population.132 Vaccine hesitancy is reportedly high in some areas.133 Vaccine hesitancy has impeded other immunization campaigns in Nigeria, including efforts to eradicate polio; Nigeria was declared free of wild polio in 2020, though vaccine-derived polio remains a challenge. Researchers have partly attributed vaccine hesitancy in Nigeria to public distrust in the wake of a 1996 trial of an experimental meningitis treatment by U.S. pharmaceutical company Pfizer, during which several participants died and many others became disabled.134
As of mid-January 2022, the State Department reported that the United States, in partnership with COVAX and the African Union, had donated 18.3 million vaccine doses to Nigeria.135 As of late 2021, USAID had obligated $90.2 million to support Nigeria’s COVID-19 response.136 U.S. foreign aid has included delivery of a field hospital, 200 ventilators, and protective equipment, as well as the training of volunteers and religious leaders to share COVID-19-related information.137
The Economy
Nigeria's economy is the largest in Africa. Its energy sector, discussed below, has long been a key source of government revenues, and dependence on oil107
The Economy Nigeria’s economy is the largest in sub-Saharan Africa. Its oil sector, discussed below, has been a critical source of government revenues since large-scale production began in the 1970s, and oil dependence has significantly shaped Nigeria’s politics has significantly shaped Nigeria’s politics
and economy since large-scale production began in the 1970sand economy. The non-oil economy is large and . The non-oil economy is large and
dynamic, driven by a dynamic, driven by a
youthful, rapidly growing population and burgeoning services sector. Lagos, rapidly growing population and burgeoning services sector. Lagos,
Nigeria'Nigeria’s commercial capital, is among the worlds commercial capital, is among the world
'’s largest cities and is a technology and financial s largest cities and is a technology and financial
services hub in Africa; its population and annual gross domestic product (GDP) are larger than services hub in Africa; its population and annual gross domestic product (GDP) are larger than
those of many African countries. Nigerian artists and musicians are prominent in global media, those of many African countries. Nigerian artists and musicians are prominent in global media,
and the country’s film industry, “Nollywood,” is second to India’s Bollywood in annual output.138 Investors have increasingly viewed Nigeria as a potentially lucrative consumer market for social media and other telecommunications, financial services, retail trade, and other industries.139
Nonetheless, Nigeria faces stark economic and development challenges, and a wide gap between the rich and the poor. The World Bank has projected that 100 million Nigerians may be living in extreme poverty by 2022—making Nigeria home to one of the largest extremely poor populations in the world.140 Service provision is limited in densely populated urban zones and in rural areas; as of 2015, 30% of Nigerians lacked access to improved water, and 70% lacked access to basic
131 AP, “Nigeria Destroys 1 Million Nearly Expired COVID Vaccine Doses,” December 22, 2021. 132 WHO, “Nigeria: WHO COVID-19 Dashboard.” 133 Iliyasu et al., “‘They have produced a vaccine, but we doubt if COVID-19 exists’: correlates of COVID-19 vaccine acceptability among adults in Kano, Nigeria,” Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics vol. 17, no. 11, 2021.
134 Pfizer denied wrongdoing, and maintained that the trial met ethical standards. A lawsuit brought by the Kano State government led to an out of court settlement in 2009. See Belinda Archibong and Francis Annan, “What do Pfizer’s 1996 drug trials in Nigeria teach us about vaccine hesitancy?,” Brookings, December 3, 2021.
135 State Department, “COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: Nigeria,” accessed January 12, 2022. See also CRS In Focus IF11796, Global COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution, by Sara M. Tharakan and Tiaji Salaam-Blyther, and CRS In Focus IF11532, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Impact in Africa, coordinated by Alexis Arieff.
136 USAID, “COVID-19 – Sub-Saharan Africa (Fact Sheet #2, FY2021),” October 2021. 137 State Department, “The United States and Nigeria: Strategic Partners,” November 18, 2021. 138 UNESCO, The African film Industry: trends, challenges and opportunities for growth, 2021. 139 On challenges and opportunities for investors in Nigeria, see Financial Times, “Special Report: Investing in Nigeria” (February 14, 2022) a collection of articles available at https://www.ft.com/reports/investing-in-nigeria. 140 Jonathan Lain and Tara Vishwanath, “Tackling poverty in multiple dimensions: A proving ground in Nigeria?”
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sanitation facilities.141 Nigeria tops the World Bank’s list of countries with the largest populations lacking access to electricity, with an estimated 90 million people as of 2019; the gap has widened in recent years, as population growth has outstripped electrification efforts.142 Despite notable advancements in public healthcare provision, immense challenges remain: Nigeria accounts for over a quarter of annual malaria deaths and one of the top tuberculosis disease burdens globally, and is home to the world’s third-largest population living with HIV.
A drop in global oil prices in 2020 and COVID-19-related shocks weakened Nigeria’s economy, which was already mired in a period of low growth following a 2016 recession. The country’s GDP contracted by 1.8% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which estimated a rebound to 2.6% growth in 2021.143 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has roiled global fuel and food markets, with evolving implications for Nigeria, which imports wheat and other products from Russia.144 Observers question whether Nigeria can fully capitalize on a spike in crude oil and natural gas prices, as the country’s reliance on imported fuel (a function of insufficient domestic refining capacity) and the government’s subsidization of gasoline (despite efforts to remove the subsidy, see below) are expected to undercut projected revenue gains.145
Nigeria’s public debt stock has grown rapidly in recent years. As of late 2021, the World Bank assessed Nigeria’s debt to be sustainable, but highly vulnerable to fiscal shocks, such as oil price and production swings.146 Longstanding subsidies on fuel have imposed a high fiscal burden; the Buhari administration has pledged to replace the subsidy with cash transfers in 2022, but has postponed implementation. Interest payments are high as a share of government revenues: Nigeria has struggled to collect taxes outside of the oil and gas sector, and has one of the world’s lowest government revenue-to-GDP ratios.147 Fiscal pressures at the federal level tend to ricochet to sub-federal tiers via reduced intergovernmental revenue transfers. As of late 2021, around half of Nigeria’s external debt was owed to multinational lenders, primarily the World Bank and the IMF; Eurobonds accounted for much of the balance.148 China is Nigeria’s largest bilateral lender.
China’s Commercial Involvement in Nigeria
China is Nigeria’s top source of imports, and one of its top export destinations. Chinese construction firms have undertaken a number of public works and infrastructure projects in the country, many financed in whole or in part by China’s state Ex-Im Bank.149 Recently finished or ongoing projects include several new railways and highways;150 new airport terminals; a deep-water port expected to be completed by 2023; and the 700-megawatt Zungeru Hydroelectric Power Project, slated to begin operation in 2022. Other projects have faced delays amid reported
141 World Bank, Nigeria Biannual Economic Update: Water Supply, Sanitation & Hygiene—a Wake-up Call, 2019. 142 World Bank, Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2021, 2021. 143 IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2021 update. 144 Femi Ibirogba, “Wheat: Dealing with shortages as Russia/Ukraine conflict raises cost,” The Guardian (Nigeria), March 18, 2022.
145 Abdulkareem Mojeed and Mary Izuaka, “What’s in store for Nigerians as oil prices surge? Experts speak,” Premium
Times, March 8, 2022.
146 World Bank, Nigeria Development Update (November 2021): Time for Business Unusual, 2021. 147 OECD, Revenue Statistics in Africa, 2021. 148 Nigerian Debt Management Office, “Nigeria's External Debt Stock as at December 31, 2021,” available at https://www.dmo.gov.ng/debt-profile/external-debts/external-debt-stock.
149 For an overview of available information on Chinese investment and construction activities in Nigeria, see the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)-China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) databases and American Enterprise Institute (AEI)’s China Global Investment Tracker. 150 On Chinese railway projects in Nigeria, see Yunnan Chen, China’s Role in Nigerian Railway Development and
Implications for Security and Development, U.S. Institute of Peace, 2018.
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contract disputes or financing issues, including construction of a new airport terminal at Lagos’s airport and of the 3,050-megawatt Mambil a Hydropower Project, expected to be one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Africa.151 Nigeria has been a leading regional recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), and hosts two special economic zones partly financed by Chinese authorities and/or state enterprises that offer incentives to Chinese manufacturing firms.152 China also has provided financing to support expansions of Nigeria’s information and communication technology infrastructure; Chinese technology firm Huawei has been involved in these efforts.153 Some commentators have criticized the alleged opacity of Chinese loans to Nigeria, and raised concerns over potential threats to Nigeria’s sovereignty arising from indebtedness to China.154 The Buhari administration has downplayed such concerns and defended Chinese lending as favorable to Nigeria and beneficial for the country’s economy.155 Researchers also have raised concerns related to il icit activity by Chinese commercial actors in Nigeria, such as bribery, il egal logging, and il icit fishing.156 (Non-Chinese nationals also have been implicated in such practices.) In the past two decades, China has become a top supplier of military equipment to Nigeria; recent Nigerian acquisitions include tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, drone systems, and artil ery.
Impediments to Growth and Development
Numerous analyses have sought to identify impediments to and the country’s film industry, “Nollywood,” is second to India’s Bollywood in
102 State Department, 2023 Trafficking in Persons Report: Nigeria, 2023. 103 HRW, “You Pray for Death”: Trafficking of Women and Girls in Nigeria, 2019. 104 U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), At the Crossroads of Licit and Illicit: Tramadol and Other Pharmaceutical Opioids Trafficking in West Africa, 2021.
105 Ken Dilanian, Kit Ramgopal, and Chloe Atkins, “‘Easy money’: How international scam artists pulled off an epic theft of Covid benefits,” NBC News, August 15, 2021.
106 In a prominent case, U.S. authorities charged social media influencer Ramon Olorunwa Abbas with conspiring to engage in money laundering; DOJ also mentioned Abbas as a co-conspirator in a scheme to launder money for North Korean cybercriminals. DOJ, “Nigerian National Brought to U.S. to Face Charges of Conspiring to Launder Hundreds of Millions of Dollars from Cybercrime Schemes,” July 3, 2020; DOJ, “Three North Korean Military Hackers Indicted in Wide-Ranging Scheme to Commit Cyberattacks and Financial Crimes Across the Globe,” February 17, 2021.
107 Treasury Department, “Treasury Sanctions Nigerian Cyber Actors for Targeting U.S. Businesses and Individuals,” June 16, 2020.
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annual output.108 Investors have increasingly viewed Nigeria as a potentially lucrative consumer market for telecommunications, financial services, retail trade, and other industries.109
Nonetheless, Nigeria faces stark economic and development challenges, and a wide gap between rich and poor. According to a 2022 Nigerian government survey, 63% of Nigerians—roughly 133 million people—are multidimensionally poor, facing deprivations in education, health, and/or standard of living.110 Service provision is limited in densely populated urban zones and in rural areas; according to the World Bank in 2021, approximately 60 million Nigerians do not have access to basic drinking water, and 80 million lack access to improved sanitation facilities.111 Nigeria tops the World Bank’s list of countries with the largest populations lacking access to electricity, with an estimated 90 million people as of 2019.112 Despite notable advancements in public healthcare provision, immense challenges remain: Nigeria accounts for over a quarter of annual malaria deaths and one of the top tuberculosis disease burdens globally, and is home to the world’s third-largest population living with HIV. According to UNAIDS, “one in seven babies born with HIV in the world is Nigerian.”113 Numerous analyses have sought to identify barriers to the realization of Nigeria’s economic the realization of Nigeria’s economic
potential and explain the apparent contradiction between the country’s vast human and natural potential and explain the apparent contradiction between the country’s vast human and natural
resources and its poor development indicatorsresources and its poor development indicators
. Many of these (see Text Box).
Impediments to Growth and Development in Nigeria: An Overview
Many analyses of Nigeria’s development trajectory have focused on dysfunctions and have focused on dysfunctions and
structural distortions arising from Nigeria’s dependence on oil and gas, such as vulnerability to structural distortions arising from Nigeria’s dependence on oil and gas, such as vulnerability to
oil price swings and boom-and-bust cycles. Others have focused on constraints to efficient oil oil price swings and boom-and-bust cycles. Others have focused on constraints to efficient oil
sector management in a political system in which officials at all levels of government face sector management in a political system in which officials at all levels of government face
pressures to capture and distribute oil wealth.pressures to capture and distribute oil wealth.
157
114 Efforts to spur Efforts to spur
nonoilnon-oil industries via import restrictions, foreign exchange controls, and other industries via import restrictions, foreign exchange controls, and other
protectionist policies have had limited success, some argue, in engendering diversification.protectionist policies have had limited success, some argue, in engendering diversification.
158 Corruption is a key barrier to private sector activity, as is costly and unreliable power access. The Central Bank maintains several windows through which foreign exchange is sold at differing rates based on the client, and prohibits the use of foreign exchange channels to import dozens of goods; businesses report that such controls create uncertainty and restrict access to imports.159 115 Many Nigerians are engaged in low-paying informal work such as subsistence agriculture or petty trading; according to the World Bank, “the wage jobs best able to lift people out of poverty are rare and unevenly distributed in Nigeria; most poor Nigerians hold household farm and non-farm jobs that cannot translate their hard work into an exit from poverty.”116 Across various measures—including employment rates, educational attainment, digital literacy, financial inclusion, and access to agricultural inputs—barriers to quality employment are generally more pronounced among women.117 Corruption is a key barrier to private-sector activity, as is costly and unreliable power access. According to the According to the
State Department, other concerns include insecurity in parts of the country, “regulatory uncertainty, policy inconsistency, poor infrastructure, foreign exchange shortages and customs inconsistency and inefficiency.”118
The agriculture sector is central to Nigeria’s economy, and has been a focus of U.S. development assistance. It is the country’s leading employer and contributes roughly one-quarter of annual
108 UNESCO, The African film Industry: trends, challenges and opportunities for growth, 2021. 109 On challenges and opportunities for investors in Nigeria, see Financial Times, “Special Report: Investing in Nigeria” (February 14, 2022) a collection of articles available at https://www.ft.com/reports/investing-in-nigeria. 110 Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (2022), 2022. 111 World Bank, “Nigeria: Ensuring Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for All,” May 26, 2021. 112 World Bank, Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2021, 2021. 113 UNAIDS, “Anambra, Nigeria, commits to eliminating vertical transmission of HIV by end of 2022,” September 6, 2021.
114State Department, other concerns include “an inconsistent regulatory and legal environment, insecurity, a slow and ineffective bureaucracy and judicial system, and inadequate intellectual property rights protections.”160
151 Wole Oyebade, “Lagos Airport awaits Chinese terminal two years after delivery date,” The Guardian (Nigeria), December 10, 2021; Taiwo Adebulu, “Hope for Mambilla project as Sunrise Power waives $500m penalty for Nigeria,” The Cable, November 18, 2021.
152 Yunnan Chen, “Africa’s China”: Chinese Manufacturing Investments in Nigeria in the Post-Oil Boom Era and
Channels for Technology Transfer, SAIS-CARI, 2020.
153 Nils Hungerland and Kenddrick Chan, Assessing China’s Digital Silk Road: Huawei’s Engagement in Nigeria, LSE Ideas, 2021.
154 See, e.g., The Guardian (Nigeria), “Chinese loan and Nigeria’s sovereignty,” August 11, 2020. 155 Debt Management Office, “Facts About Chinese Loans to Nigeria,” June 18, 2020. 156 Matthew T. Page, The Intersection of China’s Commercial Interests and Nigeria’s Conflict Landscape, 2018. 157 On constraints to efficient policymaking in Nigeria, see Zainab Usman, “The ‘Resource Curse’ and the Constraints On constraints to efficient policymaking in Nigeria, see Zainab Usman, “The ‘Resource Curse’ and the Constraints
on Reforming Nigeria’s Oil Sector,” in Levan and Ukata, eds., on Reforming Nigeria’s Oil Sector,” in Levan and Ukata, eds.,
The Oxford Handbook of Nigerian Politics, 520-544. 520-544.
158115 International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria: Selected Issues: Diversification of the Nigerian Economy, 2021. 116 World Bank, Nigeria Poverty Assessment 2022: A Better Future for All Nigerians. 117 See NBS, Labor Force Statistics; and NBS, National Youth Survey 2020, 2021. 118 State Department, 2022 Investment Climate Statements: Nigeria, 2022.
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GDP.119 International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria: Selected Issues: Diversification of the Nigerian Economy, 2021. 159 State Department, 2021 Investment Climate Statements: Nigeria, 2021. 160 State Department, 2020 Investment Climate Statements: Nigeria, 2020.
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Quality job creation has been a key challenge. An estimated 33% of Nigeria’s labor force—and 43% among those aged 15-31—was unemployed as of late 2020, one of the highest official unemployment rates in the world, according to official statistics.161 Many Nigerians are engaged in poorly paying informal work such as low-yield subsistence agriculture or self-employment in services like petty trading and tailoring. Labor strikes are common in the formal sector, including by public sector employees protesting nonpayment of salaries. Barriers to quality employment and other labor challenges are generally more pronounced among women (see Text Box).
Nigerian Women in the Workplace: Selected Issues
Across various measures—including employment rates, education and school attendance, digital literacy, financial inclusion, and access to agricultural inputs—women in Nigeria generally lag behind men.162 The State Department reports that Nigerian women experience “considerable economic discrimination,” noting that Nigerian law “does not mandate equal remuneration for work of equal value [.. or] nondiscrimination based on gender in hiring.”163 Women often are barred from owning or inheriting land due to customary social practices. According to a recent survey, nearly three in five women workers, across various sectors, reported that they had experienced gender-based violence or harassment (GBVH) in the workplace; nearly one-third reported that they had faced pressure for sexual favors at work.164 Women’s participation in political leadership and governance is another key challenge; Nigeria has one of the world’s lowest rates of women’s representation in parliament.
The agriculture sector is central to Nigeria’s economy, and has been a focus of U.S. development assistance (see “U.S. Assistance”). It is the country’s top employer and contributes roughly one-quarter of annual GDP. Top export crops include sesame seeds, cashew nuts, and cocoa beans. Top export crops include sesame seeds, cashew nuts, and cocoa beans.
Nigeria’s livestock industry is one of the largest in Africa and is expected to Nigeria’s livestock industry is one of the largest in Africa and is expected to
expandgrow as rising as rising
incomes, population growth, and urbanization drive up demand for animal products.incomes, population growth, and urbanization drive up demand for animal products.
165 Analysts120 Some analysts contend Nigeria’s agriculture sector operates below potential, due to such issues as low fertilizer contend Nigeria’s agriculture sector operates below potential, due to such issues as low fertilizer
use (Nigeria has one of the world’s lowest fertilizer usage rates), limited uptake of improved use (Nigeria has one of the world’s lowest fertilizer usage rates), limited uptake of improved
seeds, irrigation, and other technologies, poor access to credit, and high market access costs.seeds, irrigation, and other technologies, poor access to credit, and high market access costs.
166121
Several analyses have assessed Nigeria to be particularly vulnerable to negative effects of climate
Several analyses have assessed Nigeria to be particularly vulnerable to negative effects of climate
change.change.
167122 Northern Nigeria is chronically arid, and susceptible to highly variable rainfall, leading Northern Nigeria is chronically arid, and susceptible to highly variable rainfall, leading
to drought and riverine flooding; the Middle Belt also faces exposure to aridity and flooding, with to drought and riverine flooding; the Middle Belt also faces exposure to aridity and flooding, with
implications for herder-farmer violence and other land-use conflicts in the region.implications for herder-farmer violence and other land-use conflicts in the region.
168123 Storm surges Storm surges
and riverine flooding pose key risks in southern Nigeria, particularly in densely populated coastal and riverine flooding pose key risks in southern Nigeria, particularly in densely populated coastal
cities, including Lagos, that generally lack adequate drainage systems and other infrastructure.cities, including Lagos, that generally lack adequate drainage systems and other infrastructure.
169
161 NBS, Labor Force Statistics: Unemployment and Underemployment Report (Q4 2020), 2021.
162 See NBS, Labor Force Statistics; and NBS, National Youth Survey 2020, 2021. 163 State Department, 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. 164 Nigeria Labor Congress and Solidarity Center, Breaking the Silence: Gender-Based Violence in Nigeria’s World of
Work, 2021.
165 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Transforming Livestock Sector: Nigeria, 2019. 166 The burning of natural gas associated with oil drilling, known as gas flaring, has historically accounted for a considerable share of Nigeria’s contributions to global greenhouse gas emissions.
The Oil and Gas Sector As of 2022, Nigeria was the world’s 15th largest oil producer and 16th largest producer of natural gas liquids.124 Oil and gas receipts remain the single most important contributor to government revenues, though they have accounted for a declining share of state earnings since the 2000s: in 2022, oil and gas accounted for around 40% of federal revenues.125 Efforts are underway to expand domestic refining capacity, but Nigeria continues to import nearly all its fuel.126
Nigeria’s crude oil production declined beginning in 2020, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to which Nigeria belongs, responded to the global oil price crash by imposing quotas on members’ output. Nigeria’s output has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, as maintenance issues linked to past underinvestment and a strike by Exxon employees in 2023 have limited Nigeria’s output to below its OPEC quota.127 Decades of pipeline spills have ravaged the environment and devastated local livelihoods and health conditions. Local communities often blame the spills on equipment failure, while oil operators attribute them to pipeline sabotage.128
119 World Bank DataBank, World Development Indicators, accessed October 17, 2023. 120 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Transforming Livestock Sector: Nigeria, 2019. 121 Dayo Phillip et al., Dayo Phillip et al.,
Constraints to Increasing Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria, International Food Policy , International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) Brief, 2009; Bedru Balana and Motunrayo Oyeyemi, Research Institute (IFPRI) Brief, 2009; Bedru Balana and Motunrayo Oyeyemi,
Credit Constraints and Agricultural
Technology Adoption: Evidence from Nigeria, IFPRI Working Paper, 2020. IFPRI Working Paper, 2020.
167122 For instance, Nigeria ranked as the second most vulnerable country (tied with Chad) on UNICEF’s 2021 Children’s For instance, Nigeria ranked as the second most vulnerable country (tied with Chad) on UNICEF’s 2021 Children’s
Climate Risk Index, a measure of children’s vulnerability to environmental stress and extreme weather events (see Climate Risk Index, a measure of children’s vulnerability to environmental stress and extreme weather events (see
UNICEF, UNICEF,
Children’s Climate Risk Index, 2021). Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy, , 2021). Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy,
has identified Lagos as one of identified Lagos as one of
ten cities at “extreme risk” of economic exposure to climate change (Verisk Maplecroft, “84% of world’s fastest ten cities at “extreme risk” of economic exposure to climate change (Verisk Maplecroft, “84% of world’s fastest
growing cities face ‘extreme’ climate change risks,” November 21, 2018). growing cities face ‘extreme’ climate change risks,” November 21, 2018).
168123 USAID, Fragility and Climate Risks in Nigeria, 2018. 124 Oil and gas production rankings from Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy: 72nd Edition, 2023. 125 Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Economic Report: Fourth Quarter 2022, 2022. For an analysis of such trends, see Sarah Burns and Olly Owen, “Nigeria: No Longer an Oil State?” Oxford Martin School Working Paper, August 2019. 126 Elisha Bala-Gbogbo, “Nigeria seeks to restart four state oil refineries by end 2024,” Reuters, August 25, 2023. 127 Energy Information Administration, “Nigeria was the top crude oil producer in Africa, but disruptions threaten production,” June 15, 2023.
128 James Barnett, “The Oil Thieves of Nigeria,” New Lines Magazine, January 26, 2023.
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U.S firms Chevron and ExxonMobil are among the largest international oil companies (IOCs) active in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. Others include Anglo-Dutch firm Shell (the leading IOC in Nigeria), French firm Total, and Italian firm Eni. Some IOCs have sought to sell their onshore and shallow-water assets in Nigeria, a trend analysts attribute to high costs associated with aging pipelines, insecurity, risks of litigation from local communities seeking reparations for oil spills, and IOC efforts to reduce emissions.129 Nigerian authorities have contested some divestments, including a pending sale of Exxon’s shallow-water holdings to a Nigerian firm.130 Advocates have raised concerns that divestments could effectively exonerate IOCs from redressing oil pollution, and that environmental conditions could worsen with a transfer of assets to domestic firms.131
U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Investment Nigeria is the United States’ second-largest trade partner and the third-largest destination of U.S. FDI in sub-Saharan Africa. Crude oil and other mineral fuels have historically accounted for the lion’s share of Nigeria’s exports to the United States, making up 90% of such exports, by value, in 2022.132 Nigeria often ranks as a top exporter to the United States USAID, Fragility and Climate Risks in Nigeria, 2018. 169 Adaku Jane Echendu, “Nigeria has a flooding challenge: here’s why and what can be done,” The Conversation,
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The Oil and Gas Sector
Nigeria has the 11th-largest proven crude oil reserves in the world; in 2020, it was the 12th largest producer of crude oil and condensate and 16th largest producer of natural gas.170 Oil and gas exports generally account for at least half of annual federally collected revenues.171 As noted above, domestic refining remains limited, despite efforts to increase use of existing refineries and expand total capacity; Nigeria relies on imports for a large share of its fuel needs.
U.S firms Chevron and ExxonMobil are among the largest multinational oil companies (MOCs) active in Nigeria’s oil sector; others include the Anglo-Dutch firm Shell (the leading MOC in Nigeria), French firm Total, and Italian firm Eni. Analysts have raised concerns over opacity, corruption, and mismanagement on the part of the oil parastatal, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).172 In 2021, President Buhari ratified the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), an expansive law to overhaul governance of the oil industry.
Nigeria’s crude oil production declined in 2020-2021 as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to which Nigeria belongs, responded to a global oil price crash by restricting members’ output. Maintenance issues and underinvestment have limited Nigeria’s output to below its allotted OPEC quota levels.173 MOCs in Nigeria have increasingly sought to divest from onshore operations, a pattern observers attribute to rising costs associated with aging pipelines and insecurity; tensions with local communities, some of which have sought reparations for oil pollution; and global pressure to transition to clean energy sources; among other factors.174
U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Investment
Nigeria is the United States’ second-largest trade partner and the third-largest destination of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigerian exports to the United States have long been dominated by crude oil, which accounted for 75% of U.S. imports from Nigeria, by value, in 2020.175 Nigeria often ranks as a top source of U.S. imports under the African Growth under the African Growth
and Opportunity Act (AGOA, P.L. 106-200, as amended) trade preference program; crude oil and Opportunity Act (AGOA, P.L. 106-200, as amended) trade preference program; crude oil
accounts formakes up nearly all of Nigeria’s AGOA nearly all of Nigeria’s AGOA
-eligible exports. U.S. crude imports from Nigeria have been subject to dramatic swings due to fluctuations in global oil market trends. Amid rising U.S. domestic oil production, U.S. imports of crude oil from Nigeria have fallen sharply since the 2000s and early 2010s, when Nigeria often ranked in the top five suppliers of U.S. crude imports. The largest categories of U.S. exports to Nigeria in 2020, by value, were automobiles, machinery, cereals, and mineral fuels.176 U.S. FDI is in Nigeria is led by exports. The top categories of U.S. exports to Nigeria in 2022, by value, were automobiles, mineral fuels, cereals, machinery, and aircraft and related parts.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. direct investment position in Nigeria was $5.6 billion in 2022, down 6.4% from 2021.133 U.S. investment in Nigeria has historically been concentrated in the oil and gas sector, though the the oil and gas sector, though the
share of extractives in the U.S. FDI position in Nigeria has declinedshare of extractives in the U.S. FDI position in Nigeria has declined
in recent years amid U.S. amid U.S.
investment in other sectors, such as services.investment in other sectors, such as services.
177
October 25, 2021.
170 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy: 70th Edition, 2021. 171 Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Economic Report: First Half of 2020, 2021, and monthly economic reports. 172 Aaron Sayne et al., Inside NNPC Oil Sales: A Case for Reform in Nigeria, Natural Resource Governance Institute, 2015; IMF, Nigeria: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 19/93, 2019.
173 Libby George, “As OPEC reopens the taps, African giants losing race to pump more,” Reuters, September 27, 2021. 174 Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN), Divesting from the Delta: Implications for the Niger Delta as
International Oil Companies Exit Onshore Production, 2021.
175 U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) Dataweb, accessed December 23, 2021. 176 USITC Dataweb, accessed December 23, 2021. 177 Bureau of Economic Analysis, “U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: Balance of Payments and Direct Investment
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link to page 28 134
Economic Trends and Outlook The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Nigeria’s GDP growth at 2.9% in 2023, down from 3.3% last year.135 Fuel price increases spurred by President Tinubu’s subsidy removal appear to have propelled inflation, which exceeded 25% in September 2023, the highest rate in decades. The naira currency fell to a record low in October 2023. The Central Bank of Nigeria has removed restrictions on the use of foreign exchange for imports of dozens of items, a protectionist policy introduced by the previous administration. It remains to be seen whether the Tinubu government can sustain support for its pro-market agenda, or whether it may backtrack on certain measures in the face of public discontent or further inflationary or currency pressures.
Fiscal conditions have come under increasing strain, amid new borrowing and a surge in fuel subsidy payments in 2021-2022 linked to elevated global gas prices. Interest payments are high as a share of government revenues: Nigeria has struggled to collect taxes outside of the oil and gas
129 Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN), Divesting from the Delta: Implications for the Niger Delta as International Oil Companies Exit Onshore Production, 2021.
130 Wendell Roelf, “Nigerian oil regulator ‘optimistic’ on Exxon asset sale to Seplat,” Reuters, October 11, 2023. 131 Amnesty International, Nigeria: Tainted Sale?, May 26, 2023; Rachel Chason, “Big Oil is selling off its polluting assets — with unintended consequences,” Washington Post, March 27, 2023.
132 Information in this paragraph is from U.S. International Trade Commission Dataweb, accessed August 10, 2023. 133 Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Nigeria - International Trade and Investment Country Facts,” accessed October 17, 2023, available at https://apps.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.html#429.
134 Bureau of Economic Analysis, “U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: Balance of Payments and Direct Investment Position Data,” accessed October 17, 2023; see also U.S. International Trade Commission, U.S. Trade and Investment with Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Trends and New Developments, 2020.
135 IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2023 update.
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sector, and has one of the world’s lowest government revenue-to-GDP ratios.136 The government’s debt office estimates the debt service-to-revenue ratio at 74% in 2023, and projects a rise to 105% in 2025.137 Boosting tax generation is a stated aim of the Tinubu administration. As of 2022, around 48% of Nigeria’s external debt was owed to multilateral lenders, led by the World Bank; roughly 37% to commercial lenders; and 12% to bilateral lenders, led by China’s Ex-Im Bank.138
U.S. Relations and Assistance Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
U.S. Relations and Assistance
U.S.-Nigeria ties improved after Nigeria’s transition to civilian rule in 1999. Successive U.S. Successive U.S.
Administrations have described the U.S.-Nigeria relationship as among the most important U.S. Administrations have described the U.S.-Nigeria relationship as among the most important U.S.
partnerships in Africa. Nigerian presidents are often among the first African partnerships in Africa. Nigerian presidents are often among the first African
leadersheads of state to receive to receive
calls from new U.S. presidents. Secretaries of State under each Administration since President calls from new U.S. presidents. Secretaries of State under each Administration since President
Clinton have visited NigeriaClinton have visited Nigeria
; President George W. Bush visited the country in 2003. Amid travel . Amid travel
disruptions linked to COVID-19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Nigeria virtually in disruptions linked to COVID-19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Nigeria virtually in
his first official “trip” to Africa in his first official “trip” to Africa in
Aprilearly 2021, and in late 2021 visited the country in his first in- 2021, and in late 2021 visited the country in his first in-
person trip to the region. During the latter visit, Blinken met with person trip to the region. During the latter visit, Blinken met with
then-President Buhari President Buhari
and others to to discuss cooperation in public health, economic growth, climate change, and security, among other discuss cooperation in public health, economic growth, climate change, and security, among other
issues, and signed a issues, and signed a
new foreignfive-year aid aid
agreement entailing U.S. development assistance commitments worth $2.1 billion.139 agreement with Nigeria (see “U.S. Assistance,” below).178
Bilateral relations include the U.S.-Nigeria Binational Commission (BNC), a forum inaugurated
Bilateral relations include the U.S.-Nigeria Binational Commission (BNC), a forum inaugurated
in 2010 that features regular high-level diplomatic visits and discussion of a range of interests. in 2010 that features regular high-level diplomatic visits and discussion of a range of interests.
The last BNC, held in 2020, focused on trade and investment, governance, security cooperation, The last BNC, held in 2020, focused on trade and investment, governance, security cooperation,
and developmentand development
; former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale and Nigeria’s foreign minister, Geoffrey Onyeama, led the U.S. and Nigerian delegations, respectively. A U.S.-. A U.S.-
Nigeria Commercial and Investment Dialogue (CID), launched in 2017, convenes U.S. and Nigeria Commercial and Investment Dialogue (CID), launched in 2017, convenes U.S. and
Nigerian officials and private sector actors to foster commercial ties, initially focused on Nigerian officials and private sector actors to foster commercial ties, initially focused on
“infrastructure, agriculture, digital economy, investment, and regulatory reform.”“infrastructure, agriculture, digital economy, investment, and regulatory reform.”
179 140 The State The State
Department maintains an embassy in Abuja and consulate in Lagos, and supports “American Department maintains an embassy in Abuja and consulate in Lagos, and supports “American
Corners” in libraries throughout Nigeria to share information on U.S. culture. People-to-people Corners” in libraries throughout Nigeria to share information on U.S. culture. People-to-people
ties are extensive, underpinned by a large U.S.-based Nigerian diaspora (see ties are extensive, underpinned by a large U.S.-based Nigerian diaspora (see
Text Box). ).
Nigerian Diaspora Communities in the United States
There are roughly
There are roughly
393450,000 foreign-born Nigerians resident in the United States, according to U.S. Census Bureau ,000 foreign-born Nigerians resident in the United States, according to U.S. Census Bureau
data, making Nigerians the largest African-born population in the United States.data, making Nigerians the largest African-born population in the United States.
180141 Top areas of residence include Top areas of residence include
the Houston, New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Washington, the Houston, New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Washington,
DCD.C., and Baltimore metropolitan areas. , and Baltimore metropolitan areas.
Foreign-born Nigerians are among the best-educated diaspora groups in the United States; over 60% hold a Foreign-born Nigerians are among the best-educated diaspora groups in the United States; over 60% hold a
bachelor’s degree or higher, and many are employed in professional occupations such as science, medicine, and bachelor’s degree or higher, and many are employed in professional occupations such as science, medicine, and
education. Remittances from the United States are a source of income for many Nigerian households. education. Remittances from the United States are a source of income for many Nigerian households.
As noted above, poor governance, human rights, and religious freedom conditions in Nigeria have strained bilateral ties. In 2020, the Trump Administration imposed visa restrictions on Nigerian nationals via Proclamation 9983, which expanded travel restrictions under Executive Order 13780 (the “Travel Ban”), citing Nigeria’s failure to comply with identity-management and information-sharing issues.181 President Biden revoked those restrictions in January 2021.
Position Data,” accessed December 23, 2021; see also USITC, U.S. Trade and Investment.
178 See State Department, “Secretary Blinken’s Travel to Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal,” November 11, 2021; U.S. Embassy and Consulate in Nigeria, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Nigerian Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama at a Joint Press Availability,” November 19, 2021.
179Niger. The Biden Administration has expressed support for President Tinubu’s efforts, via ECOWAS, to support a restoration of constitutional order in Niger, while stopping short of backing Tinubu’s call for a military option, instead emphasizing “a diplomatic path.”142 In July
136 OECD, Revenue Statistics in Africa, 2021. 137 Nigeria Debt Management Office (DMO), 2022 Report of the Annual National Market Access COuntry (MAC) Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), 2023.
138 NBS, Nigerian Domestic & Foreign Debt, Q4 2022, 2023. 139 U.S. Embassy and Consulate in Nigeria, “Secretary Blinken Remarks at the Signing Ceremony for $2.1 Billion Development Assistance Agreement with Nigerian VP Osinbajo and Foreign Min. Onyeama,” November 19, 2021.
140 U.S. Embassy Abuja, “U.S. & Nigeria Agree to Commercial and Investment Dialogue,” November 21, 2017. U.S. Embassy Abuja, “U.S. & Nigeria Agree to Commercial and Investment Dialogue,” November 21, 2017.
180141 CRS tabulation of data from U.S. Census Bureau, CRS tabulation of data from U.S. Census Bureau,
20192022 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, “Table B05006: Place of Birth for the Foreign-Born Population in the United States,” accessed October 17, 2023.
142 State Department, “Secretary Blinken’s Call with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu,” July 29, 2023; State Department press briefing, August 8, 2023.
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19 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. CRS Analyst in Immigration Policy Jill H. Wilson assisted in collecting and analyzing U.S. Census Bureau data.
181 White House, “Improving Enhanced Vetting Capabilities and Processes for Detecting Attempted Entry Into the United States by Terrorists or Other Public-Safety Threats,” 85 FR 6699, February 5, 2020.
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U.S. Assistance
Nigeria often ranks among the top annual recipients of U.S. foreign aid globally. In his late 2021 visit to Nigeria, Secretary Blinken and his Nigerian counterpart signed a five-year Development Objectives Assistance Agreement (DOAG), entailing U.S. development assistance commitments worth $2.1 billion, administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).182 This would be level with what USAID reports having provided to Nigeria under a previous five-year DOAG signed in 2015.183 Congress may consider the objectives and funding levels set out in the recently signed DOAG as it appropriates foreign aid for Nigeria in the years ahead
Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
2023, Vice President Harris and Secretary Blinken each called President Tinubu to discuss Niger; in September 2023, President Biden met with Tinubu on the sidelines of the G20 Summit to discuss Tinubu’s domestic economic reforms and ECOWAS efforts related to Niger.143
U.S. Assistance Nigeria often ranks among the top annual recipients of U.S. foreign aid globally. According . According
to public budget materials, bilateral State Department- and USAID-administered to public budget materials, bilateral State Department- and USAID-administered
non-emergency nonemergency aid for Nigeria totaled $aid for Nigeria totaled $
452.4627.7 million in allocations of million in allocations of
FY2020FY2022 appropriations ( appropriations (
see Table 1).).
184
Table 1. Non-Humanitarian U.S. Assistance for Nigeria, by Sector, FY2018-FY2022FY2020-FY2024
$ thousands
$ thousands
, current dollars, allocations by year of appropriation , allocations by year of appropriation
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
Sector
(act.)
(act.)
(act.)
(req.)
(req.)
Health
Health
408,561
585,668
403,739
436,100
538,620
Economic Growth
26,000
24,249
19,249
16,010
22,124
Education and Social Services
25,000
21,000
15,500
9,000
14403,739
577,253
572,987
550,143
549,250
Economic Growth
19,249
21,200
23,400
27,601
32,601
Education and Social Services
15,500
14,100
14,000
14,000
10,000 ,000
Democracy, Rights, and Governance
Democracy, Rights, and Governance
31,000
23,000
9,256
6,320
15,4569,256
10,696
10,900
13,456
25,500
Peace and Security
Peace and Security
7,0924,684
4,
4,
534
4,684
4,670
4,700450
6,396
5,200
4,300
Total
497,653
658,451
452,428
472,100
594,500452,428
627,699
627,683
610,400
621,651
Source: State Department, State Department,
Congressional Budget Justification FY2020-FY2022FY2022-FY2024. .
Notes: Figures do not include Food for Peace (FFP) assistance. Figures do not include Food for Peace (FFP) assistance.
Health assistance
Health assistance
has regularly comprised comprised
nearly 90% of this total, broadly consistent with past years. Support for Nigeria’s efforts to control HIV/AIDS roughly 90% of annual State Department and USAID-administered aid for Nigeria. HIV/AIDS assistance under the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS under the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS
Relief (PEPFAR) has long constituted the largest share of annual health assistance for Nigeria Relief (PEPFAR) has long constituted the largest share of annual health assistance for Nigeria
(see (see
Text Box). Other ). Other
U.S. global health aid for Nigeria aims to help health funding supports efforts to counter malaria—Nigeria is counter malaria—Nigeria is
a a President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) focus country—support maternal and child health, control President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) focus country—support maternal and child health, control
tuberculosis, enhance water and sanitation services, and promote nutrition, among other tuberculosis, enhance water and sanitation services, and promote nutrition, among other
effortsaims. .
PEPFAR in Nigeria: Selected Issues
Nigeria is home to one of the world’s largest populations of people living with HIV, estimated at
Nigeria is home to one of the world’s largest populations of people living with HIV, estimated at
1.7roughly 2 mil ion mil ion
in 2020.185people.144 The country’s HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate The country’s HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate
is1is 1.3%, lower than that of many African countries, but .3%, lower than that of many African countries, but
Nigeria has one of the highest rates of new infection in the region; an uneven distribution of cases and limited Nigeria has one of the highest rates of new infection in the region; an uneven distribution of cases and limited
testing in a large population have raised challenges for detection and treatment. PEPFAR testing in a large population have raised challenges for detection and treatment. PEPFAR
funding for Nigeria has exceeded $6 bil ion since 2003.186has committed nearly $8 bil ion for Nigeria since 2003.145 The United States has provided additional support for Nigeria’s campaign against The United States has provided additional support for Nigeria’s campaign
182 U.S. Embassy and Consulate in Nigeria, “Secretary Blinken Remarks at the Signing Ceremony for $2.1 Billion Development Assistance Agreement with Nigerian VP Osinbajo and Foreign Min. Onyeama,” November 19, 2021.
183 USAID, “USAID Announces $168.5 Million in New Assistance to Nigeria Under Development Objectives Agreement,” March 22, 2021. 184 State Department, Congressional Budget Justification (CBJ) for FY2022, 2021. 185 UNAIDS, “Nigeria,” accessed December 27, 2021. 186 See, e.g., U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria Mary Beth Leonard, “An Unforgettable 2021,” December 23, 2021.
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link to page 31 link to page 30 Nigeria: Key Issues and U.S. Policy
against HIV/AIDS via contributions to multilateral health agencies and initiatives such as the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS via contributions to multilateral health agencies and initiatives such as the Global Fund to Fight
AIDS, AIDS,
Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) and UNAIDS. Fostering local ownership of the HIV/AIDS response in Nigeria has been a challenge. PEPFAR and the Global Fund accounted for 67% and 15%, respectively, of funding for
143 White House, “Readout of President Biden’s Engagement with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu.” 144 Onovo et al., “Estimation of HIV prevalence and burden in Nigeria: a Bayesian predictive modelling study,” The Lancet, vol. 62 (August 2023).
145 U.S. Embassy and Consulate in Nigeria, “PEPFAR: 20 Years of Impact,” January 28, 2023.
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Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) and the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). Nigeria has made notable progress in its campaign against HIV/AIDS. In December 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) named Nigeria as one of nine African countries on track to reach, by 2025, UNAIDS’ “95-95-95” goals, whereby 95% of all people living with HIV know their status, 95% of those diagnosed with HIV receive anti-retroviral therapy (ART), and 95% of those treated achieve viral suppression. Fostering local ownership of the HIV/AIDS response in Nigeria has been a challenge, however. In a 2021 report, PEPFAR assessed that “HIV response efforts in Nigeria continue to be almost ful y dependent on international donors.”187 PEPFAR and the Global Fund accounted for 67% and 15%, respectively, of funding for the HIV/AIDS response in Nigeria in HIV/AIDS response in Nigeria in
20182018 (latest data); the Nigerian government accounted for 17%; the Nigerian government accounted for 17%
(most recent data).188 USAID has struggled to increase the share of PEPFAR funding it allocates to local partners in Nigeria relative to other USAID missions in Africa.189 .146 Congress is considering whether, and with what possible changes, to reauthorize funding for PEPFAR.147
Support for agriculture-led economic growth has typically comprised the second-largest category
Support for agriculture-led economic growth has typically comprised the second-largest category
of U.S. assistanceof U.S. assistance
. Nigeria for Nigeria, which is one of is one of
1220 focus countries under Feed the Future (FTF), an focus countries under Feed the Future (FTF), an
agricultural development initiative. U.S. democracy, human rights, and governance (DRG) aid for agricultural development initiative. U.S. democracy, human rights, and governance (DRG) aid for
Nigeria has included funding to help strengthen political competition and democratic institutions Nigeria has included funding to help strengthen political competition and democratic institutions
(e.g., electoral bodies), support conflict prevention and resolution, and build the capacity of civil (e.g., electoral bodies), support conflict prevention and resolution, and build the capacity of civil
society. DRG programs also have helped strengthen local law enforcement and the justice sector.society. DRG programs also have helped strengthen local law enforcement and the justice sector.
The above figures do not include Nigeria receives additional assistance additional assistance
provided through regionally and centrally through regionally and centrally
managed programs, which managed programs, which
public budget materials do not disaggregate by country.
Humanitarian Assistance
The United States is the largest donor to the humanitarian response in Nigeria, having provided over $2.6 billion in bilateral food and non-food assistance since FY2015 (see Table 2). The majority of these funds have supported the humanitarian response in the northeast, though U.S. humanitarian assistance also has targeted other regions, including the northwest and Middle Belt.
Table 2. Humanitarian Assistance for Nigeria, FY2015-FY2023
$ thousands, current dollars, obligations
FY2015-2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023 (to date)
USAID/NGA
50,836.4
-
-
-
-
USAID/FFP
710,816.3
-
-
-
-
USAID/OFDA
386,266.6
-
-
-
-
USAID/BHA
*
335,994.3
316,704.2
356,554.9
190,394.6
State/PRM
148,200.0
57,524.6
47,385.5
49,995.4
5,000.0
Total
1,296,119.3
393,518.9
364,089.7
406,550.3
195,394.6
Source: CRS calculations based on USAID humanitarian fact sheets on Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin, FY2015-FY2023. Notes: NGA=Nigeria; FFP=Food for Peace; OFDA=Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; BHA=Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (established in FY2020); PRM=Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration. FY2020 totals include COVID-19-related assistance categorized as humanitarian aid.
Security Assistance and Cooperation
In 2021, the State Department reported that security cooperation with Nigeria funded through the Departments of State and Defense had totaled roughly $650 million since 2017.148 Nigerian purchases of U.S. defense articles and services through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program account for roughly $500 million of this total (see below). Otherwise, State Department-managed security assistance for Nigeria has aimed to build counterterrorism capacity, enhance maritime security, and professionalize Nigeria’s military, among other efforts. Law enforcement
146 Federal Government of Nigeria, National Aids Spending Assessment (NASA) for the Period 2015-2018: Level and Flow of Resources and Expenditures of the National HIV and AIDS Response, 2019.
147 See CRS Video WVB00632, International HIV/AIDS Assistance: What next for PEPFAR? 148 State Department, “The United States and Nigeria: Strategic Partners,” November 18, 2021.
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capacity building has been another focus of State Department programming, which has helped to establish a specialized police unit to assume law enforcement duties in the northeast, and to improve responses to drug trafficking.149 Nigeria is a partner under the State Department’s Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a regional counterterrorism program, and also has public budget materials do not disaggregate by country. Examples include Power Africa, a USAID-led electrification effort; Prosper Africa, which aims to promote U.S.-Africa trade and investment; and humanitarian assistance (see “Humanitarian Assistance”).
Security Assistance and Cooperation
According to the State Department, “since 2017, Department of State and Department of Defense security cooperation to Nigeria has totaled approximately $650 million.”190 Nigerian purchases of U.S. defense articles and services through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program account for roughly $500 million of this total (see “U.S. Military Sales and Transfers” below). Department of Defense (DOD)-administered security assistance provided under DOD’s “global train and equip” authority (10 U.S.C. 333) comprises much of the balance: such aid has included support for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities; air-to-ground integration (AGI); and maritime security and counterterrorism capacities.191 DOD also has supported Nigeria to restore C-130 aircraft, establish a military exercise center, and develop military policies.192
State Department-administered security assistance has sought to strengthen counterterrorism efforts, enhance maritime security, and professionalize Nigeria’s military, among other efforts. Law enforcement capacity building has been another focus of State Department programming, which is helping to establish a Transitional Police Unit to assume responsibility for civilian security in the northeast and has aided efforts to combat drug trafficking.193 Nigeria participates in
187 PEPFAR Nigeria, Country Operational Plan (COP) 2021: Strategic Direction Summary, 2021. 188 Federal Government of Nigeria, National Aids Spending Assessment (NASA) for the Period 2015-2018: Level and
Flow of Resources and Expenditures of the National HIV and AIDS Response, 2019.
189 USAID Office of the Inspector General, PEPFAR in Africa: USAID Expanded the Use of Local Partners but Should
Reassess Local Partner Capacity to Meet Funding Goals, 2021.
190 State Department, “The United States and Nigeria: Strategic Partners,” November 18, 2021. 191 CRS assessment based on DOD notifications to Congress of planned security cooperation activities. 192 State Department, “U.S. Security Cooperation with Nigeria,” March 19, 2021. 193 State Department, “Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs: Nigeria Summary,” n.d
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the State Department's Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), an effort to build regional counterterrorism capabilities and coordination. Nigeria also has benefitted from U.S. benefitted from U.S.
support to the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) support to the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF)
coalition in the Lake Chad Basin.
U.S. “Leahy laws,” which prohibit the provision of U.S. security assistance to security force units implicated in gross violations of human rights, have precluded some Nigerian military personnel from receiving certain types of U.S. security assistance.194 Between 2015 and 2018, and again in 2020 and 2021, the State Department designated Nigeria under the Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA, Title IV of P.L. 110-457) in connection with the use of child soldiers by state-backed militias battling Boko Haram and/or the use of children, generally in support roles, by Nigeria’s military.195 That designation can carry restrictions on U.S. security assistance, subject to a waiver; successive Administrations have fully waived the restrictions for Nigeria, citing the U.S. interest. In October 2021, President Biden waived all CSPA aid restrictions on Nigeria for FY2022. in the Lake Chad Basin. The Department of Defense (DOD) also has administered security assistance for Nigeria under its “global train and equip” authority (10 U.S.C. 333).
The maintenance of U.S. defense articles provided to Nigeria has been a concern. For instance, a
The maintenance of U.S. defense articles provided to Nigeria has been a concern. For instance, a
2021 DOD evaluation of maritime security cooperation in the Gulf of Guinea between 2007 and 2021 DOD evaluation of maritime security cooperation in the Gulf of Guinea between 2007 and
2018 identified “a strong reliance on the United States to provide parts and maintenance services” 2018 identified “a strong reliance on the United States to provide parts and maintenance services”
on the part of Nigeria’s navy.on the part of Nigeria’s navy.
196150 The study found that Nigerian authorities often failed to provide The study found that Nigerian authorities often failed to provide
support infrastructure and supplies, such as fuel and internet, to sustain U.S.-provided materiel. support infrastructure and supplies, such as fuel and internet, to sustain U.S.-provided materiel.
U.S. Military Sales and Transfers
Reported abuses by Nigerian security forces and other issues have impeded sales of U.S. defense articles and services to Nigeria. In 2014, the Obama Administration blocked the transfer of U.S.-origin attack helicopters from Israel to Nigeria amid “concerns about Nigeria’s ability to use and maintain this type of helicopter [...and] the Nigerian military’s protection of civilians when conducting military operations.”197 Nigeria’s ambassador to the United States later criticized the United States’ alleged refusal to sell “lethal equipment” to Nigeria, and Nigeria’s military cancelled a planned U.S. military training exercise in late 2014.198
Recent attention has centered on the sale of A-29 Super Tucano aircraft to Nigeria. The Obama Administration considered a potential sale of 12 A-29s to Nigeria, but suspended consideration of the sale after a Nigerian jet bombed a displaced persons camp in early 2017.199 The Trump Administration revived the proposal, and in 2017 notified Congress of the proposed sale, under FMS, of 12 A-29s and associated weaponry, training, and other support.200 Some Members of Congress expressed opposition to the sale; none introduced or moved to force consideration of a joint resolution of disapproval.201 The sale of the A-29s along with spare parts, logistics support,
194 See “Human Rights Vetting: Nigeria and Beyond,” hearing before the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, 114th Cong., 2nd Sess., July 10, 2014.
195 See State Department, Trafficking in Persons reports for 2015-2018, 2020, and 2021; on the use of children by the CJTF and Nigerian military, see State Department human rights reports for 2015-2018 and 2020.
196 DOD, U.S. Maritime Security Cooperation in the Gulf of Guinea (2007-2018): Strategic Evaluation, 2021. 197 State Department, “Daily Press Briefing - November 12, 2014,” November 12, 2014. 198 Michelle Faul, “Nigerian ambassador blasts US refusal to sell arms,” AP, November 11, 2014; U.S. Embassy Abuja, “U.S. Government Regrets Nigerian Cancellation of Military Training,” December 1, 2014. 199 Phil Stewart and Warren Strobel, “Exclusive: U.S. seeks to approve attack aircraft for Nigeria in Boko Haram fight,” Reuters, May 6, 2016.
200 Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), “Government of Nigeria – A-29 Super Tucano Aircraft, Weapons, and Associated Support,” August 3, 2017. 201 Letter from Senators Cory Booker and Rand Paul to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, June 8, 2017.
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munitions, and construction of new facilities to house them went forward in 2017, valued at $496 million, the largest FMS case in sub-Saharan Africa to date.202 The Nigerian Air Force took delivery of the planes in 2021 and has deployed them against extremists in the northeast as well as armed gangs in the northwest. In mid-2021, according to press accounts, Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) leadership reportedly placed an informal, pre-notification hold on a proposal to sell 12 AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters and accompanying systems to Nigeria.203
In addition to the sale of the A-29 aircraft, Nigerian FMS purchases have supported construction of new facilities at Kainji Air Base (in Niger State)
Nigeria has made two major purchases under FMS: 12 A-29 “Super Tucano” light attack aircraft and associated weapons and training (notified in 2017 at an initial value of $593 million) and 12 AH-1Z Cobra attack helicopters and accompanying systems (notified in 2022 at a value of $997 million).151 The A-29 sale was the largest FMS sale in Africa to date, until the AH-1Z sale. As discussed below, both sales were initially held up due to U.S. human rights concerns. The A-29s were inducted into Nigeria’s Air Force in 2021; the AH-1Zs have not yet been delivered.
Other Nigerian FMS purchases have supported the refurbishment of Kainji Air Base to house the A-29s, as well as the acquisition to house the A-29s, as well as the acquisition
of munitions and rocket propellants, of munitions and rocket propellants,
aerialunmanned aircraft, targeting systems, bomb equipment, and surveillance targeting systems, bomb equipment, and surveillance
systems.systems.
204152 The United States has provided The United States has provided
or committed to provide further materiel to Nigeria materiel to Nigeria
under other under other
authorities, including unmanned aircraft and associated training and, under the Excess Defense Articles program, two Coast Guard cutters and 24 armor-protected vehicles.205
Humanitarian Assistance
The United States is the largest donor to the humanitarian response in Nigeria, providing over $2.0 billion in bilateral food and non-food assistance since FY2015 (Table 2). The majority of these funds have supported the humanitarian response in the northeast, though U.S. humanitarian assistance also has targeted other regions, including the northwest and Middle Belt.
Table 2. Humanitarian Assistance for Nigeria, FY2015-FY2021
$ thousands, obligations
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
USAID/NGA
33,800.0
10,853.7
6,182.7
-
-
-
-
USAID/FFP
12,396.8
50,782.5
250,085.3
197,615.5
199,936.2
-
-
USAID/OFDA
20,082.1
29,478.9
110,337.2
111,292.2
115,076.2
-
-
USAID/BHA
*
*
*
*
*
335,994.3
316,704.2
State/PRM
28,200.0
26,900.0
36,800.0
24,400.0
31,900.0
57,524.6
47,385.5
Total
94,478.9 118,015.1 403,405.2 333,307.7 346,912.4 393,518.9 364,089.7
Source: CRS calculations based on USAID, “Nigeria – Complex Emergency: Fact Sheet [CEFS] #4, FY2015” (September 30, 2015), “Lake Chad Basin CEFS #26, FY2017” (September 30, 2017), “Lake Chad Basin CEFS #21, FY2018” (September 30, 2018), “Lake Chad Basin CEFS #6, FY2019” (September 30, 2019), “Lake Chad Basin CEFS #1, FY2021” (December 21, 2020), “Lake Chad Basin CEFS #4, FY2021” (September 30, 2021). Notes: NGA=Nigeria; FFP=Food for Peace; OFDA=Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; BHA=Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (established in FY2020); PRM=Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration. FY2020 totals include COVID-19-related assistance categorized as humanitarian aid.
Insecurity in the northeast has posed challenges for humanitarian access and the oversight of U.S. assistance. According to a 2020 audit by USAID’s Inspector General, for instance, the award of a
202 The contract notice for the aircraft sale is available at DOD, “Contracts for Nov. 28, 2018.” 203 Robbie Gramer, “U.S. Lawmakers Hold Up Major Proposed Arms Sale to Nigeria,” Foreign Policy, July 27, 2021. 204programs, including two Coast Guard cutters and 24 armor-protected vehicles under the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) programs.153
Human Rights Concerns
Abuses by Nigerian security forces have spurred concern among some Members of Congress, complicated U.S. security cooperation, and impeded sales of U.S. defense articles and services.154 In 2014, the Obama Administration blocked the transfer of U.S.-origin attack helicopters from Israel to Nigeria amid “concerns about Nigeria’s ability to use and maintain this type of helicopter [ ... and] the Nigerian military’s protection of civilians when conducting military operations.”155
149 State Department, “Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs: Nigeria Summary.” 150 DOD, U.S. Maritime Security Cooperation in the Gulf of Guinea (2007-2018): Strategic Evaluation, 2021. 151 Defense Security Cooperation Agency, “Government of Nigeria – A-29 Super Tucano Aircraft, Weapons, and Associated Support,” August 3, 2017, and “Nigeria – AH-1Z Attack Helicopter Related FMS Acquisitions,” April 14, 2022.
152 On construction of the airfield, see DOD “Contracts for May 7, 2021”; on munitions, “Contracts For June 21, 2018,” On construction of the airfield, see DOD “Contracts for May 7, 2021”; on munitions, “Contracts For June 21, 2018,”
“Contracts For Sept. 14, 2018,” “Contracts for Feb. 6, 2019,” and “Contracts for July 31, 2020”;“Contracts For Sept. 14, 2018,” “Contracts for Feb. 6, 2019,” and “Contracts for July 31, 2020”;
on unmanned aircraft, “Contracts for May 8, 2020,” on targeting systems, on targeting systems,
“Contracts for Oct. 5, 2018” and “Contracts for Sept. 25, 2020; on bomb equipment, “Contracts for June 1, 2018,”; and “Contracts for Oct. 5, 2018” and “Contracts for Sept. 25, 2020; on bomb equipment, “Contracts for June 1, 2018,”; and
on surveillance systems, “Contracts for Dec. 21, 2018.” on surveillance systems, “Contracts for Dec. 21, 2018.”
205 See DOD, “Contracts for May 8, 2020”; State Department, “U.S. Security Cooperation with Nigeria.”
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third party monitoring contract—used where site visits by U.S. staff are not feasible due to insecurity—encountered extensive delays, and “it was not until April 2019—4 years after the need was first identified” that the contract was awarded.206 The risk of aid diversion by terrorists has further complicated humanitarian efforts, prompting heightened due diligence (see Text Box).
USAID Anti-Terrorism Support Measures in Nigeria: Humanitarian Implications
In 2017, USAID’s Offices of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and Food for Peace (FFP) introduced a grant contract provision requiring implementers in the Lake Chad Basin to attain written approval from USAID before distributing aid to individuals whom implementers “affirmatively know” to have been formerly associated with Boko Haram or IS-WA “as combatants or non-combatants.”207 Some observers have raised concerns with this provision, questioning the practicability of vetting beneficiaries’ past affiliations with terrorist groups and/or alleging that it constitutes a violation of the core humanitarian principles of neutrality, impartiality, and independence.208 USAID has disputed accusations that the provision has impeded programming, stating that the vetting requirement only comes into force in the event that there is knowledge of a beneficiary’s past affiliation with a terrorist group, and that aid may proceed even in such instances, if determined to be consistent with U.S. law.209
Outlook and Issues for Congress
The escalation of insecurity across Nigeria has kindled debate among observers concerning the potential for territorial fragmentation or state failure in Africa’s most populous country, a scenario that could threaten U.S. interests in Nigeria and the wider sub-region while generating demands for additional U.S. attention and resources. Amid mounting concern over Nigeria’s trajectory, some Members of Congress have called for a reevaluation or reorientation of U.S. engagement.210 Congressional deliberations over the best way forward for U.S.-Nigeria relations may depend, in part, on Members’ assessments of the Nigerian government’s commitment to addressing issues of concern to the United States, such as governance and human rights challenges. Such appraisals may inform debate over the relative merits of various policy tools for advancing U.S. interests in Nigeria, which may range from increased U.S. engagement and assistance to potential punitive measures, such as sanctions and aid restrictions.
Looking ahead, general elections scheduled for early 2023 arguably represent a test for Nigeria’s democratic institutions as the country approaches a quarter-century of uninterrupted civilian rule. Recent Congresses have focused attention on Nigerian elections through hearings and resolutions calling for peaceful and credible polls, and have appropriated foreign assistance funding that has supported electoral activities.211 Congress may consider these and other avenues of engagement,
206 USAID OIG, USAID Has Gaps in Planning, Risk Mitigation, and Monitoring of Its Humanitarian Assistance in
Africa’s Lake Chad Region, 2020. 207 Obi Anyadike, “Aid workers question USAID counter-terror clause in Nigeria,” The New Humanitarian, November 5, 2019.
208 Ibid; see also Jacob Kurtzer, Out of Sight, and Chiara Gillard et al., Screening of final beneficiaries – a red line in
humanitarian operations. An emerging concern in development work, International Review of the Red Cross, February 2022. In 2021, Senator Booker cited Nigeria as an example of a context in which “compliance with some USAID policies, related to potential material support to terrorist groups, has made it nearly impossible to operate.” See SFRC, “Nomination of Ambassador Samantha Power to be USAID Administrator,” 117th Cong., 1st Sess., March 23, 2021. 209 Lead Inspector General for East Africa and North and West Africa Counterterrorism Operations, Quarterly Report
to the United States Congress: October 1, 2019 – December 31, 2019, February 7, 2020.
210 In June 2021, for instance, Senator Robert Menendez stated that there was a need for “a fundamental rethink of our framework of our overall engagement” with Nigeria. SFRC, “Review of the FY 2022 State Department Budget Request,” hearing, 117th Cong., 1st Sess., June 8, 2021.
211 For recent examples of legislation focused on Nigeria’s elections see, in the 114th Congress, H.Res. 143, H.Res. 147,
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such as official communications and delegations to the country, as it weighs how best to support successful elections. More broadly, the forthcoming polls may offer an opportunity for Members of Congress to take stock of Nigeria’s trajectory, assess opportunities and challenges in the bilateral relationship, and set priorities for engagement with incoming authorities.
The Nigerian government’s governance and human rights record has driven U.S. critiques and strained the bilateral partnership153 State Department, “U.S. Security Cooperation with Nigeria,” April 14, 2022. 154 On reported abuses, see annual State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. 155 State Department, “Daily Press Briefing - November 12, 2014,” November 12, 2014.
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In response, Nigeria’s ambassador to the United States criticized the United States’ alleged refusal to sell “lethal equipment” to Nigeria, and Nigeria’s military cancelled a planned U.S. training.156
As noted above, both the A-29 and AH-1Z acquisitions were temporarily held up due to human rights concerns. In 2017, the Obama Administration suspended consideration of the A-29 sale after a Nigerian jet bombed a displaced persons camp; the sale was later revived by the Trump Administration.157 Some Members of Congress expressed opposition to the sale; none introduced or moved to force consideration of a joint resolution of disapproval.158 In 2021, according to press accounts, Senate Foreign Relations Committee leadership reportedly placed an informal, pre-notification hold on the proposed AH-1Z sale.159 The sale went forward in 2022.
More recently, in December 2022, Reuters alleged that Nigeria’s military had conducted a secret mass abortion program in the northeast that had terminated the pregnancies of at least 10,000 women and girls since 2013, many of whom had been raped by extremists.160 Some Members expressed alarm at the allegations; State Department and DOD spokespersons separately called for an investigation.161 Nigerian military authorities initially refused to investigate, but later agreed to comply with a Nigerian government inquiry into abuses in the northeast, including the Reuters allegations. The status of that investigation is unclear. In the 118th Congress, a proposed amendment to a version of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024 (H.R. 2670) would have required the Secretary of State to report to Congress on efforts to urge accountability for civilian casualties and human rights abuses by Nigeria’s armed forces. The amendment was not adopted for debate on the House floor.
U.S. “Leahy laws,” which prohibit the provision of U.S. security assistance to security force units implicated in gross violations of human rights, have precluded some Nigerian military personnel from receiving certain types of U.S. security assistance.162 Between 2015 and 2018, and again in 2020 and 2021, the State Department designated Nigeria under the Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA, Title IV of P.L. 110-457) in connection with the use of child soldiers by state-backed militias battling Boko Haram and/or the use of children, generally in support roles, by Nigeria’s military.163 That designation can carry restrictions on U.S. security assistance, subject to a waiver; successive Administrations have fully waived the restrictions for Nigeria, citing the U.S. interest. In October 2021, President Biden waived all CSPA aid restrictions on Nigeria for FY2022.
156 Michelle Faul, “Nigerian ambassador blasts US refusal to sell arms,” AP, November 11, 2014; U.S. Embassy Abuja, “U.S. Government Regrets Nigerian Cancellation of Military Training,” December 1, 2014. 157 Phil Stewart and Warren Strobel, “Exclusive: U.S. seeks to approve attack aircraft for Nigeria in Boko Haram fight,” Reuters, May 6, 2016.
158 Letter from Senators Cory Booker and Rand Paul to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, June 8, 2017. 159 Robbie Gramer, “U.S. Lawmakers Hold Up Major Proposed Arms Sale to Nigeria,” Foreign Policy, July 27, 2021. 160 Paul Carsten, Reade Levinson, David Lewis, and Libby George, “The Abortion Assault,” Reuters, December 7, 2022; and Reade Levinson, “More women describe enduring forced abortions in Nigerian Army programme,” Reuters, April 19, 2023.
161 Reuters, “Reaction to Reuters report on Nigerian military abortion programme,” December 12, 2022; David Lewis and Daphne Psaledakis, “Senator wants review of U.S. security assistance to Nigeria following abortion report,” Reuters, December 20, 2022; Reuters, “Pentagon calls for investigation into Reuters report of Nigeria child killings,” December 13, 2022; and State Department Press Briefing, December 13, 2022.
162 See House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations, Human Rights Vetting: Nigeria and Beyond, hearing, 114th Cong., 2nd sess., July 10, 2014.
163 See State Department, Trafficking in Persons reports for 2015-2018, 2020, and 2021; on the use of children by the CJTF and Nigerian military, see State Department human rights reports for 2015-2018 and 2020.
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Outlook and Issues for Congress President Tinubu has received praise from some foreign audiences for his aggressive economic reforms and strong stance on the coup in neighboring Niger, but both efforts have been widely unpopular domestically. Having entered office with less than 40% of the popular vote, Tinubu’s political capital may be limited, according to some analysts.164 Whether, and with what concessions, he can marshal political buy-in for his agenda are key questions.
The Nigerian government’s poor governance and human rights record has driven growing U.S. criticism and threatened to strain bilateral ties, notably with respect to security cooperation. At the same time, , notably with respect to security cooperation. At the same time,
the U.S.-Nigerian defense U.S.-Nigerian defense
ties havepartnership has deepened through continued military sales and U.S. training and deepened through continued military sales and U.S. training and
equipment activities. As noted above (see “U.S. Military Sales and Transfers”), some Members have signaled opposition to U.S. military sales to Nigeria due to human rights concerns. As equipment activities, and bilateral engagement has increased amid military takeovers elsewhere in West Africa. As Congress considers engagement with Nigeria, Members may possibly draw lessons from U.S. Congress considers engagement with Nigeria, Members may possibly draw lessons from U.S.
approaches to other countries where U.S. governance and human rights concerns have approaches to other countries where U.S. governance and human rights concerns have
arguably conflicted conflicted
with U.S. security interests.212 Congress also may evaluate the sustainability of past U.S. security investments in Nigeria in light of the Nigerian government’s limited investment in maintaining U.S.-origin defense articles (see “Security Assistance and Cooperation”). with U.S. security interests.165
Nigeria’s size, economic weight, and regional influence position it to play an important role in the
Nigeria’s size, economic weight, and regional influence position it to play an important role in the
context of U.S.-Africa policy, as the attainment of various U.S. security, development, and global context of U.S.-Africa policy, as the attainment of various U.S. security, development, and global
health objectives in the region arguably hinges on the advancement of such goals in Nigeria. As it health objectives in the region arguably hinges on the advancement of such goals in Nigeria. As it
considers budgetary, policy, and oversight priorities, Members may assess U.S. priorities in considers budgetary, policy, and oversight priorities, Members may assess U.S. priorities in
Nigeria in the context of various regional objectives. These might include: Nigeria in the context of various regional objectives. These might include:
• Development and global health promotion, in view of Nigeria’s high poverty rate and Development and global health promotion, in view of Nigeria’s high poverty rate and
disease burden—which, by virtue of
disease burden—which, by virtue of
Nigeriathe country’s demographic size, weigh heavily on ’s demographic size, weigh heavily on
broader poverty and broader poverty and
global health trends in Africa. Members may review past U.S. health trends in Africa. Members may review past U.S.
development and health investments in Nigeria, and assess whether U.S. assistance is development and health investments in Nigeria, and assess whether U.S. assistance is
sufficient and properly targeted to help address sufficient and properly targeted to help address
Nigeria’sits needs. needs.
• Expanding U.S.-Africa trade and investment, in light of Nigeria’s Expanding U.S.-Africa trade and investment, in light of Nigeria’s
economic potential and
the extent of current U.S.-Nigeria commercial relations. Congress may consider what challenges might impede greater bilateral economic ties, and opportunities for expanding U.S. trade and investment through such initiatives as Prosper Africa;
arguably immense
economic potential. Congress may review current U.S.-Nigeria commercial relations, and assess the barriers to greater cooperation. Among other dynamics, Members may examine the ongoing divestment from Nigeria’s oil industry by U.S. firms, and debate how (if at all) to spur greater U.S. commercial interest in Nigeria.
• Strengthening democracy and promoting human rights, amid extensive governance Strengthening democracy and promoting human rights, amid extensive governance
challenges in Nigeria and democratic backsliding in the broader sub-region.
challenges in Nigeria and democratic backsliding in the broader sub-region.
213 Congress Congress
may debate what mix of tools might best help promote good governance in Nigeria and may debate what mix of tools might best help promote good governance in Nigeria and
weigh the merits of increased engagement (e.g., expanding democracy, human rights, and weigh the merits of increased engagement (e.g., expanding democracy, human rights, and
governance assistance and anti-kleptocracy efforts) against signals of U.S. concern and governance assistance and anti-kleptocracy efforts) against signals of U.S. concern and
punitive measures (e.g., aid restrictions, sanctions, and public criticism);punitive measures (e.g., aid restrictions, sanctions, and public criticism);
214 and and
• Global power competition in Africa, in the context of Nigeria’s Global power competition in Africa, in the context of Nigeria’s
growingrobust commercial and commercial and
military relationship with China. Congress may weigh various approaches for advancing
military relationship with China. Congress may weigh various approaches for advancing
U.S. influence, such as by expanding bilateral cooperation (through increased diplomatic U.S. influence, such as by expanding bilateral cooperation (through increased diplomatic
and S.Res. 65, and in the 115th Congress, H.Con.Res. 4 and S.Con.Res. 1.
212 See, e.g., Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press, Navigating the Democracy-Security Dilemma in U.S. Foreign
Policy: Lessons from Egypt, India, and Turkey, CEIP, November 4, 2021.
213 CRS Insight IN11854, “An Epidemic of Coups” in Africa? Issues for Congress, by Alexis Arieff and Lauren Ploch Blanchard.
214 In the 117th Congress, §6428 H.R. 4350, the House-passed NDAA, would have expressed the sense of Congress “on the role of human rights in reducing violence in Nigeria” and called on the United States Government to strengthen the capacity of Nigerian security forces to respond more effectively to terrorist attacks and sectarian violence. That provision was not adopted in the final bill, P.L. 117-81.
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engagement, foreign assistance, or military sales), promoting U.S. commercial
competitiveness, and drawing attention to malign practices by foreign actors
How Congress balances these priorities, as well as other U.S. interests—such as enhancing peace and security, responding to humanitarian crises, and maintaining and advancing U.S. strategic engagement, foreign assistance, or military sales), promoting U.S. commercial competitiveness, and drawing attention to malign practices by foreign actors.
How Congress balances these priorities, as well as other U.S. interests—such as enhancing peace and security, responding to humanitarian crises, and maintaining and advancing U.S. strategic
164 Economist Intelligence Unit, Nigeria: Country Report October 2023, 2023. 165 See, e.g., Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press, Navigating the Democracy-Security Dilemma in U.S. Foreign Policy: Lessons from Egypt, India, and Turkey, CEIP, November 4, 2021.
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access and influence—is likely to continue to shape U.S. engagement in Nigeria. Congress may access and influence—is likely to continue to shape U.S. engagement in Nigeria. Congress may
continue to influence bilateral relations through its appropriation and oversight of U.S. assistance, continue to influence bilateral relations through its appropriation and oversight of U.S. assistance,
consideration of U.S. military sales, and engagement (e.g., through hearings, statements, travel, consideration of U.S. military sales, and engagement (e.g., through hearings, statements, travel,
and correspondence) on issues related to Nigeria and U.S.-Nigeria policy. and correspondence) on issues related to Nigeria and U.S.-Nigeria policy.
Author Information
Tomás F. Husted Tomás F. Husted
Analyst in African Affairs
Analyst in African Affairs
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
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