Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing
~~January 20~~March 10, 2022 , 2022
Challenges, and U.S. Interests
Kristin Archick
Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern
Specialist in European Specialist in European
Ireland, which is one of four component “nations” of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict, Ireland, which is one of four component “nations” of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict,
Affairs Affairs
often referred to as “the Troubles,” has its origins in the 1921 division of Ireland and has often referred to as “the Troubles,” has its origins in the 1921 division of Ireland and has

reflected a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities. Protestants in reflected a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities. Protestants in
Northern Ireland largely define themselves as British and support remaining part of the UK Northern Ireland largely define themselves as British and support remaining part of the UK

( (unionists). Most Catholics in Northern Ireland consider themselves Irish, and many desire a ). Most Catholics in Northern Ireland consider themselves Irish, and many desire a
united Ireland (united Ireland (nationalists). ).
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace
process. For decades, the United States has provided development aid through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI). In process. For decades, the United States has provided development aid through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI). In
recent years, congressional hearings have focused on the peace process, police reforms, human rights, and addressing recent years, congressional hearings have focused on the peace process, police reforms, human rights, and addressing
Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed dealing with the past). Some Members also are concerned about how ). Some Members also are concerned about how
Brexit—the UK’s withdrawal as a member of the European Union (EU) in January 2020—is affecting Northern Ireland. —the UK’s withdrawal as a member of the European Union (EU) in January 2020—is affecting Northern Ireland.
The Peace Agreement: Progress to Date and Ongoing Challenges
In 1998, the UK and Irish governments and key Northern Ireland political parties reached a negotiated political settlement. In 1998, the UK and Irish governments and key Northern Ireland political parties reached a negotiated political settlement.
The resulting Good Friday Agreement, or Belfast Agreement, recognized that a change in Northern Ireland’s constitutional The resulting Good Friday Agreement, or Belfast Agreement, recognized that a change in Northern Ireland’s constitutional
status as part of the UK can come about only with the consent of a majority of the people in Northern Ireland (as well as with status as part of the UK can come about only with the consent of a majority of the people in Northern Ireland (as well as with
the consent of a majority in Ireland). The agreement called for devolved government—the transfer of specified powers from the consent of a majority in Ireland). The agreement called for devolved government—the transfer of specified powers from
London to Belfast—with a Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share London to Belfast—with a Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share
power. It also contained provisions on decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary weapons, policing, human rights, UK power. It also contained provisions on decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary weapons, policing, human rights, UK
security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of prisoners. security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of prisoners.
Despite a much-improved security situation since 1998, full implementation of the peace agreement has been difficult. For Despite a much-improved security situation since 1998, full implementation of the peace agreement has been difficult. For
years, decommissioning and police reforms were key sticking points that generated instability in the devolved government. In years, decommissioning and police reforms were key sticking points that generated instability in the devolved government. In
2007, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, the nationalist political party traditionally associated 2007, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, the nationalist political party traditionally associated
with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), reached a landmark power-sharing deal. Tensions and distrust persisted, however. In with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), reached a landmark power-sharing deal. Tensions and distrust persisted, however. In
2017, the devolved government led by the DUP and Sinn Fein collapsed, prompting snap Assembly elections. It took nearly 2017, the devolved government led by the DUP and Sinn Fein collapsed, prompting snap Assembly elections. It took nearly
three years to form a new devolved government in early 2020. three years to form a new devolved government in early 2020. ~~The next Assembly elections are due in May 2022. Northern~~
~~Ireland also faces a number of broad issues in its search for peace and reconciliation, including reducing sectarian divisions,~~
~~dealing with the past, addressing lingering concerns about paramilitary and dissident activity, and promoting further~~
~~economic development. In spring 2021, the outbreak of riots and unrest in parts of Northern Ireland—widely characterized as~~
~~the worst violence in years—highlighted many of the challenges and underlying fault lines that remain in the region.~~
~~Brexit and Northern Ireland~~
~~Brexit has added to political and societal divisions within Northern Ireland. Preventing a hard border (with customs checks~~
~~and physical infrastructure) on the island of Ireland was a key imperative and a major stumbling block in the UK-EU~~
~~withdrawal negotiations~~In early February 2022, Northern Ireland First Minister Paul Givan (of the DUP) resigned amid DUP unhappiness with the slow progress in UK-EU negotiations to resolve problems with the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. Givan’s resignation froze the work of the Executive. Regularly scheduled Assembly elections are to be held on May 5, 2022, but forming a new devolved government after the elections could be difficult amid ongoing challenges related to Brexit or if Sinn Fein were to surpass the DUP to become the largest party in the next Assembly (as some polls suggest). Northern Ireland also faces a number of issues in its search for peace and reconciliation, including reducing sectarian divisions, dealing with the past, addressing lingering concerns about paramilitary and dissident activity, and promoting further economic development. Brexit and Northern Ireland Brexit has added to political and societal divisions within Northern Ireland. Since 1998, as security checkpoints were dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement and . Since 1998, as security checkpoints were dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement and
because both the UK and Ireland belonged to the EU single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border because both the UK and Ireland belonged to the EU single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border
on the island of Ireland effectively disappeared, helping on the island of Ireland effectively disappeared, helping to promote peace and a dynamic cross-border economy. promote peace and a dynamic cross-border economy. ~~Concerns~~
~~about a hard border developing mostly receded in light of the~~The UK and the EU ultimately agreed to post-Brexit trade and customs arrangements for Northern post-Brexit trade and customs arrangements for Northern
~~Ireland agreed to by the UK and EU~~Ireland to retain this open border in a Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. in a Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. ~~Implementing these post-Brexit measures—~~
Implementation of the protocol—which began in January 2021—has which began in January 2021—has ~~disrupted~~led to some trade some trade disruptions between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, exacerbated a between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, exacerbated a
sense among unionists that their British identity is under threat, and contributed to heightened tensions in the region. The UK sense among unionists that their British identity is under threat, and contributed to heightened tensions in the region. The UK
government and the DUP have called for significant changes to the Northern Ireland protocol; the EU rejects renegotiating government and the DUP have called for significant changes to the Northern Ireland protocol; the EU rejects renegotiating
the protocol but asserts it is committed to mitigating the trade disruptions and has offered several proposals to address the protocol but asserts it is committed to mitigating the trade disruptions and has offered several proposals to address
operational difficulties. UK-EU negotiations aimed at resolving the protocol’s implementation challenges remain ongoing in operational difficulties. UK-EU negotiations aimed at resolving the protocol’s implementation challenges remain ongoing in
2022, but progress has been slow. Brexit also has renewed debate about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status and prompted 2022, but progress has been slow. Brexit also has renewed debate about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status and prompted
calls from Sinn Fein and others for a calls from Sinn Fein and others for a border poll, or referendum, on whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK. , or referendum, on whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK.
Also see CRS Report R46730, Also see CRS Report R46730, Brexit: Overview, Trade, and Northern Ireland, coordinated by Derek E. Mix. , coordinated by Derek E. Mix.
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Contacts
Author Information ........................................................................................................................ 32

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Overview
Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern
Ireland, which is a part of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict, often referred to as “the Ireland, which is a part of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict, often referred to as “the
Troubles,” has its modern origins in the 1921 division of Ireland (see map inTroubles,” has its modern origins in the 1921 division of Ireland (see map in Figure 1).1 At its 1 At its
core, the conflict reflects a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities. core, the conflict reflects a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities.
Protestants in Northern Ireland (48% of the population) largely define themselves as British and Protestants in Northern Ireland (48% of the population) largely define themselves as British and
support Northern Ireland’s continued incorporation in the UK (support Northern Ireland’s continued incorporation in the UK (unionists). Most Catholics in ). Most Catholics in
Northern Ireland (45% of the population) consider themselves Irish, and many Catholics desire a Northern Ireland (45% of the population) consider themselves Irish, and many Catholics desire a
united Ireland (united Ireland (nationalists). In the past, more militant unionists (). In the past, more militant unionists (loyalists) and more militant ) and more militant
nationalists (nationalists (republicans) were willing to use force and resort to violence to achieve their goals.2 ) were willing to use force and resort to violence to achieve their goals.2
The Troubles were sparked in late 1968, when a civil rights movement was launched in Northern The Troubles were sparked in late 1968, when a civil rights movement was launched in Northern
Ireland mostly by Catholics, who had long faced discrimination in areas such as electoral rights, Ireland mostly by Catholics, who had long faced discrimination in areas such as electoral rights,
housing, and employment. This civil rights movement was met with violence by some unionists, housing, and employment. This civil rights movement was met with violence by some unionists,
loyalists, and the police, which in turn prompted armed action by nationalists and republicans. loyalists, and the police, which in turn prompted armed action by nationalists and republicans.
Increasing chaos and escalating violence led the UK government to deploy the British Army on Increasing chaos and escalating violence led the UK government to deploy the British Army on
the streets of Northern Ireland in 1969 and to impose direct rule from London in 1972 (between the streets of Northern Ireland in 1969 and to impose direct rule from London in 1972 (between
1921 and 1972, Northern Ireland had its own regional government). 1921 and 1972, Northern Ireland had its own regional government).
For years, the UK and Irish governments sought to facilitate a negotiated political settlement to For years, the UK and Irish governments sought to facilitate a negotiated political settlement to
the conflict in Northern Ireland. Multiparty talks began in June 1996, led by former Senate the conflict in Northern Ireland. Multiparty talks began in June 1996, led by former Senate
Majority Leader George Mitchell, who was serving as U.S. President Bill Clinton’s special Majority Leader George Mitchell, who was serving as U.S. President Bill Clinton’s special
adviser on Ireland. After many ups and downs, the UK and Irish governments and the Northern adviser on Ireland. After many ups and downs, the UK and Irish governments and the Northern
Ireland political parties participating in the peace talks announced an agreement on April 10, Ireland political parties participating in the peace talks announced an agreement on April 10,
1998. This accord became known as the Good Friday Agreement (for the day on which it was 1998. This accord became known as the Good Friday Agreement (for the day on which it was
concluded); it is also known as the Belfast Agreement.3 concluded); it is also known as the Belfast Agreement.3
Despite the significant decrease in the levels of violence since the Good Friday Agreement, Despite the significant decrease in the levels of violence since the Good Friday Agreement,
implementation of the peace accord has been challenging. Tensions persist among Northern implementation of the peace accord has been challenging. Tensions persist among Northern
Ireland’s political parties and between the unionist and nationalist communities more broadly. Ireland’s political parties and between the unionist and nationalist communities more broadly.
Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society and continues to grapple with a number of Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society and continues to grapple with a number of
issues in its search for peace and reconciliation. Sectarian differences flare periodically, and issues in its search for peace and reconciliation. Sectarian differences flare periodically, and
addressing Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed addressing Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed dealing with the past) is ) is
particularly controversial. Many analysts assess that peace and security in Northern Ireland is particularly controversial. Many analysts assess that peace and security in Northern Ireland is
fragile. The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) in January 2020—or fragile. The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) in January 2020—or Brexit—has —has
added to divisions within Northern Ireland, as highlighted by the riots and unrest that erupted in added to divisions within Northern Ireland, as highlighted by the riots and unrest that erupted in
parts of Northern Ireland in late March and early April 2021. Brexit continues to pose challenges parts of Northern Ireland in late March and early April 2021. Brexit continues to pose challenges
for Northern Ireland’s peace process and economy, has renewed questions about Northern for Northern Ireland’s peace process and economy, has renewed questions about Northern

1 In 1921, the mostly Catholic, southern part of Ireland won independence from the United Kingdom (UK), resulting in 1 In 1921, the mostly Catholic, southern part of Ireland won independence from the United Kingdom (UK), resulting in
the establishment of the Irish Free State in 1922 within the British Commonwealth. The Irish government formally the establishment of the Irish Free State in 1922 within the British Commonwealth. The Irish government formally
declared Ireland a republic in 1948 and severed its remaining constitutional links with the UK. The Republic of Ireland, declared Ireland a republic in 1948 and severed its remaining constitutional links with the UK. The Republic of Ireland,
with a population of roughly 4.9 million, consists of 26 counties and encompasses about five-sixths of the island of with a population of roughly 4.9 million, consists of 26 counties and encompasses about five-sixths of the island of
Ireland; Northern Ireland, with approximately 1.9 million people, comprises six counties and encompasses the Ireland; Northern Ireland, with approximately 1.9 million people, comprises six counties and encompasses the
remaining one-sixth of the island. remaining one-sixth of the island.
2 Many unionists and loyalists refer to the six counties that today make up Northern Ireland as 2 Many unionists and loyalists refer to the six counties that today make up Northern Ireland as Ulster. Technically and . Technically and
historically, Ulster also includes the three northernmost counties of the Republic of Ireland. historically, Ulster also includes the three northernmost counties of the Republic of Ireland.
3 The text of the Good Friday Agreement (or Belfast Agreement) may be found at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/events/peace/ 3 The text of the Good Friday Agreement (or Belfast Agreement) may be found at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/events/peace/
docs//agreement.htm. The unionist/Protestant community tends to use the term Belfast Agreement, viewing the name docs//agreement.htm. The unionist/Protestant community tends to use the term Belfast Agreement, viewing the name
Good Friday Agreement as biased in favor of the nationalist/Catholic community. For the purposes of this report, the Good Friday Agreement as biased in favor of the nationalist/Catholic community. For the purposes of this report, the
peace accord is referred to as the Good Friday Agreement, because this is the name more widely used and recognized peace accord is referred to as the Good Friday Agreement, because this is the name more widely used and recognized
in the United States. in the United States.
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Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK, and is contributing to heightened political Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK, and is contributing to heightened political
instability within Northern Ireland’s devolved government. instability within Northern Ireland’s devolved government.
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the
Northern Ireland peace process and encouraged the full implementation of the Good Friday Northern Ireland peace process and encouraged the full implementation of the Good Friday
Agreement, as well as subsequent accords and initiatives to further the peace process and promote Agreement, as well as subsequent accords and initiatives to further the peace process and promote
long-term reconciliation. Some Members have been particularly interested in police reforms and long-term reconciliation. Some Members have been particularly interested in police reforms and
human rights in Northern Ireland. Since 1986, the United States has provided development aid human rights in Northern Ireland. Since 1986, the United States has provided development aid
through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI) as a means to encourage economic development through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI) as a means to encourage economic development
and foster reconciliation. Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in how and foster reconciliation. Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in how
Brexit will affect Northern Ireland in the years ahead. Brexit will affect Northern Ireland in the years ahead.
Figure 1. Map of Northern Ireland (UK) and the Republic of Ireland

Source: Graphic created by CRS using data from Esri (2017). Graphic created by CRS using data from Esri (2017).
The 1998 Peace Agreement
Key Elements
The Good Friday Agreement is a multilayered and interlocking document, consisting of a political The Good Friday Agreement is a multilayered and interlocking document, consisting of a political
settlement reached by Northern Ireland’s political parties and an international treaty between the settlement reached by Northern Ireland’s political parties and an international treaty between the
UK and Irish governments. At the core of the Good Friday Agreement is the UK and Irish governments. At the core of the Good Friday Agreement is the consent principle——
that is, a change in Northern Ireland’s status can come about only with the consent of the majority that is, a change in Northern Ireland’s status can come about only with the consent of the majority
of Northern Ireland’s people, as well as with the consent of a majority in Ireland. Although the of Northern Ireland’s people, as well as with the consent of a majority in Ireland. Although the
agreement acknowledged that a substantial section of Northern Ireland’s population and a agreement acknowledged that a substantial section of Northern Ireland’s population and a
majority on the island desired a united Ireland, it recognized that the majority of people in majority on the island desired a united Ireland, it recognized that the majority of people in
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Northern Ireland wished to remain part of the UK. If the preference of this majority were to Northern Ireland wished to remain part of the UK. If the preference of this majority were to
change, the agreement asserted that the UK and Irish governments would have a binding change, the agreement asserted that the UK and Irish governments would have a binding
obligation to bring about the wish of the people; thus, the agreement included provisions for obligation to bring about the wish of the people; thus, the agreement included provisions for
future polls to be held in Northern Ireland on its constitutional status, should events warrant. future polls to be held in Northern Ireland on its constitutional status, should events warrant.
The Good Friday Agreement set out a framework for devolved government—the transfer of The Good Friday Agreement set out a framework for devolved government—the transfer of
specified powers over local governance from London to Belfast—and called for establishing a specified powers over local governance from London to Belfast—and called for establishing a
Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share
power (known as power (known as Strand One). The Good Friday Agreement also contained provisions on several ). The Good Friday Agreement also contained provisions on several
issues viewed as central to the peace process: decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary issues viewed as central to the peace process: decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary
weapons, policing, human rights, UK security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of weapons, policing, human rights, UK security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of
prisoners. Negotiations on many of these areas had been extremely contentious. Experts assert prisoners. Negotiations on many of these areas had been extremely contentious. Experts assert
that the final agreed text thus reflected some degree of “constructive ambiguity” on such issues. that the final agreed text thus reflected some degree of “constructive ambiguity” on such issues.
In addition, the Good Friday Agreement created new “North-South” and “East-West” institutions In addition, the Good Friday Agreement created new “North-South” and “East-West” institutions
((Strand Two and and Strand Three, respectively). Among the key institutions called for in these two , respectively). Among the key institutions called for in these two
strands, a North-South Ministerial Council was established to allow leaders in the northern and strands, a North-South Ministerial Council was established to allow leaders in the northern and
southern parts of the island of Ireland to consult and cooperate on cross-border issues. A British-southern parts of the island of Ireland to consult and cooperate on cross-border issues. A British-
Irish Council also was formed to discuss matters of regional interest; the council comprises Irish Council also was formed to discuss matters of regional interest; the council comprises
representatives of the two governments and the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland, representatives of the two governments and the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland,
Scotland, Wales, the Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. Scotland, Wales, the Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man.
Implementation
Voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland approved the Good Friday Agreement in Voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland approved the Good Friday Agreement in
separate referendums on May 22, 1998. Although considerable progress has been made in separate referendums on May 22, 1998. Although considerable progress has been made in
implementing the agreement, the process has been arduous. For years, decommissioning and implementing the agreement, the process has been arduous. For years, decommissioning and
police reforms were key sticking points that contributed to instability in Northern Ireland’s police reforms were key sticking points that contributed to instability in Northern Ireland’s
devolved government. Sporadic violence from dissident republican and loyalist paramilitary devolved government. Sporadic violence from dissident republican and loyalist paramilitary
groups that refused to accept the peace process and sectarian strife also helped to feed mistrust groups that refused to accept the peace process and sectarian strife also helped to feed mistrust
between the unionist and nationalist communities and their respective political parties. between the unionist and nationalist communities and their respective political parties.
Democratic Power-Sharing Institutions
As noted above, the Good Friday Agreement called for establishing a new Northern Ireland As noted above, the Good Friday Agreement called for establishing a new Northern Ireland
Assembly and Executive. To ensure that neither unionists nor nationalists could dominate the Assembly and Executive. To ensure that neither unionists nor nationalists could dominate the
108-member Assembly, the agreement specified that “key decisions” must receive cross-108-member Assembly, the agreement specified that “key decisions” must receive cross-
community support (i.e., from a majority of both unionist and nationalist Assembly members). community support (i.e., from a majority of both unionist and nationalist Assembly members).
The Executive would be composed of a first minister, deputy first minister, and other ministers The Executive would be composed of a first minister, deputy first minister, and other ministers
with departmental responsibilities (e.g., health, education, jobs); positions would be allocated to with departmental responsibilities (e.g., health, education, jobs); positions would be allocated to
political parties according to party strength in the Assembly. political parties according to party strength in the Assembly.
The first elections to the new Northern Ireland Assembly took place on June 25, 1998. The The first elections to the new Northern Ireland Assembly took place on June 25, 1998. The
devolution of power from London to Belfast, however, did not follow promptly because of devolution of power from London to Belfast, however, did not follow promptly because of
unionist concerns about decommissioning, or the paramilitaries’ surrender of their weapons. unionist concerns about decommissioning, or the paramilitaries’ surrender of their weapons.
Following 18 months of further negotiations, authority over local affairs was transferred to the Following 18 months of further negotiations, authority over local affairs was transferred to the
Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in December 1999. Over the next few years, the issue Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in December 1999. Over the next few years, the issue
of decommissioning—especially by the Irish Republican Army (IRA)—contributed to the of decommissioning—especially by the Irish Republican Army (IRA)—contributed to the
suspension of the devolved government and the reinstatement of direct rule from London several suspension of the devolved government and the reinstatement of direct rule from London several
times between 2000 and 2002. (See times between 2000 and 2002. (See “Decommissioning,” below.) ” below.)
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In May 2007, after a nearly five-year suspension, Northern Ireland’s devolved government was In May 2007, after a nearly five-year suspension, Northern Ireland’s devolved government was
restored following a landmark deal between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)—which restored following a landmark deal between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)—which
strongly supports Northern Ireland’s continued integration as part of the UK—and Sinn Fein, the strongly supports Northern Ireland’s continued integration as part of the UK—and Sinn Fein, the
staunchly nationalist political party traditionally associated with the IRA.4 The DUP and Sinn staunchly nationalist political party traditionally associated with the IRA.4 The DUP and Sinn
Fein have been the largest unionist and nationalist parties, respectively, in Northern Ireland since Fein have been the largest unionist and nationalist parties, respectively, in Northern Ireland since
2003. The 2007 DUP-Sinn Fein deal paved the way for greater stability in Northern Ireland’s 2003. The 2007 DUP-Sinn Fein deal paved the way for greater stability in Northern Ireland’s
devolved government over the next decade. Regularly scheduled Assembly elections in 2011 and devolved government over the next decade. Regularly scheduled Assembly elections in 2011 and
2016 produced successive power-sharing governments, also led by the DUP and Sinn Fein. 2016 produced successive power-sharing governments, also led by the DUP and Sinn Fein.
At the same time, tensions persisted within the devolved government and between the unionist At the same time, tensions persisted within the devolved government and between the unionist
and nationalist communities. Various incidents—including protests in 2012 and 2013 over the use and nationalist communities. Various incidents—including protests in 2012 and 2013 over the use
of flags and emblems, a 2014 dispute over welfare reform, and the 2015 arrest of a Sinn Fein of flags and emblems, a 2014 dispute over welfare reform, and the 2015 arrest of a Sinn Fein
leader in connection with the murder of a former IRA member—periodically threatened the leader in connection with the murder of a former IRA member—periodically threatened the
devolved government’s stability. Following the collapse of the devolved government and snap devolved government’s stability. Following the collapse of the devolved government and snap
Assembly elections in 2017, divisions over Brexit and other contentious issues largely stalled Assembly elections in 2017, divisions over Brexit and other contentious issues largely stalled
negotiations on forming a new devolved government for almost three years. (See negotiations on forming a new devolved government for almost three years. (See “2017-2020
Crisis in the Devolved Government,” below.) below.)
Decommissioning
For years, decommissioning of paramilitary weapons was a prominent challenge in the For years, decommissioning of paramilitary weapons was a prominent challenge in the
implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. The text of the agreement states, “those who hold implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. The text of the agreement states, “those who hold
office should use only democratic, non-violent means, and those who do not should be excluded office should use only democratic, non-violent means, and those who do not should be excluded
or removed from office.” Unionists were adamant that the IRA must fully decommission its or removed from office.” Unionists were adamant that the IRA must fully decommission its
weapons. The IRA had been observing a cease-fire since 1997, but it viewed decommissioning as weapons. The IRA had been observing a cease-fire since 1997, but it viewed decommissioning as
tantamount to surrender and had long resisted such calls. tantamount to surrender and had long resisted such calls.
Progress toward full IRA decommissioning was slow and incremental. A key milestone came in Progress toward full IRA decommissioning was slow and incremental. A key milestone came in
July 2005, when the IRA declared an end to its armed campaign and instructed all members to July 2005, when the IRA declared an end to its armed campaign and instructed all members to
pursue objectives through “exclusively peaceful means.”5 In September 2005, Northern Ireland’s pursue objectives through “exclusively peaceful means.”5 In September 2005, Northern Ireland’s
Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) announced that the IRA had Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) announced that the IRA had
put all of its arms “beyond use,” asserting that the IRA weaponry dismantled or made inoperable put all of its arms “beyond use,” asserting that the IRA weaponry dismantled or made inoperable
matched estimates provided by the security forces.6 The IICD also confirmed decommissioning matched estimates provided by the security forces.6 The IICD also confirmed decommissioning
by other republican groups and loyalist organizations. The IICD concluded its work in 2011. by other republican groups and loyalist organizations. The IICD concluded its work in 2011.
Policing
Although recognized as a central element in achieving a comprehensive peace in Northern Although recognized as a central element in achieving a comprehensive peace in Northern
Ireland, new policing structures and arrangements were a frequent point of contention between Ireland, new policing structures and arrangements were a frequent point of contention between
unionists and nationalists. In 2001, a new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was unionists and nationalists. In 2001, a new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was
established to replace the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), Northern Ireland’s former, 92% established to replace the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), Northern Ireland’s former, 92%
Protestant police force. Catholics viewed the RUC as an enforcer of Protestant domination, and Protestant police force. Catholics viewed the RUC as an enforcer of Protestant domination, and
human rights organizations accused the RUC of brutality and collusion with loyalist paramilitary human rights organizations accused the RUC of brutality and collusion with loyalist paramilitary
groups. Defenders of the RUC pointed to its tradition of loyalty and discipline and its record in groups. Defenders of the RUC pointed to its tradition of loyalty and discipline and its record in
fighting terrorism. In accordance with policing recommendations made by an independent fighting terrorism. In accordance with policing recommendations made by an independent
commission (known as the Patten Commission), increasing the proportion of Catholic officers commission (known as the Patten Commission), increasing the proportion of Catholic officers

4 Frank Millar, “Paisley Reaches Out and Grasps Cherished Prize,” 4 Frank Millar, “Paisley Reaches Out and Grasps Cherished Prize,” Irish Times, March 27, 2007; Mark Davenport, “NI , March 27, 2007; Mark Davenport, “NI
Politics Moves Away from Edge,” BBC News, May 8, 2007. Politics Moves Away from Edge,” BBC News, May 8, 2007.
5 “IRA Statement in Full,” BBC News, July 25, 2005. 5 “IRA Statement in Full,” BBC News, July 25, 2005.
6 Mark Davenport, “IRA Arms: What Next for NI Politics?,” BBC News, September 26, 2005. 6 Mark Davenport, “IRA Arms: What Next for NI Politics?,” BBC News, September 26, 2005.
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(from 8% to 30% in 10 years) was a key goal for the new PSNI. To help fulfill this goal, the PSNI (from 8% to 30% in 10 years) was a key goal for the new PSNI. To help fulfill this goal, the PSNI
introduced a 50-50 Catholic/Protestant recruitment process.7 introduced a 50-50 Catholic/Protestant recruitment process.7
For several years, Sinn Fein refused to participate in the new Policing Board, a democratic For several years, Sinn Fein refused to participate in the new Policing Board, a democratic
oversight body. Many viewed Sinn Fein’s stance as discouraging Catholics from joining the PSNI oversight body. Many viewed Sinn Fein’s stance as discouraging Catholics from joining the PSNI
and preventing the nationalist community from fully accepting the new police force. In 2007, and preventing the nationalist community from fully accepting the new police force. In 2007,
however, as part of the process to restore the devolved government, Sinn Fein members voted to however, as part of the process to restore the devolved government, Sinn Fein members voted to
support the police and join the Policing Board. Experts viewed Sinn Fein’s decision as historic, support the police and join the Policing Board. Experts viewed Sinn Fein’s decision as historic,
given the IRA’s traditional view of the police as a legitimate target. In 2010, the DUP and Sinn given the IRA’s traditional view of the police as a legitimate target. In 2010, the DUP and Sinn
Fein reached an accord (the Hillsborough Agreement) to devolve policing and justice powers Fein reached an accord (the Hillsborough Agreement) to devolve policing and justice powers
from London to Belfast (on which the parties had been unable to agree at the time of the Good from London to Belfast (on which the parties had been unable to agree at the time of the Good
Friday Agreement’s signing). Friday Agreement’s signing).
In 2011, the 50-50 recruitment process for Catholic and Protestant PSNI officers concluded. In 2011, the 50-50 recruitment process for Catholic and Protestant PSNI officers concluded.
Officials asserted that the 50-50 process fulfilled the goals set out by the Patten Commission Officials asserted that the 50-50 process fulfilled the goals set out by the Patten Commission
(including increasing the number of Catholic officers to 30%).8 Concerns persist, however, that (including increasing the number of Catholic officers to 30%).8 Concerns persist, however, that
not enough Catholics are seeking to join the PSNI (due to both lingering suspicions about the not enough Catholics are seeking to join the PSNI (due to both lingering suspicions about the
police within the Catholic/nationalist community and fears that Catholic police recruits may be police within the Catholic/nationalist community and fears that Catholic police recruits may be
targeted by dissident republicans). In 2017, the PSNI introduced a number of procedural changes targeted by dissident republicans). In 2017, the PSNI introduced a number of procedural changes
to help attract more Catholics (and more women). Catholic officers currently make up 32% of the to help attract more Catholics (and more women). Catholic officers currently make up 32% of the
PSNI’s roughly 7,000 officers.9 PSNI’s roughly 7,000 officers.9
Security Normalization
The Good Friday Agreement called for “as early a return as possible to normal security The Good Friday Agreement called for “as early a return as possible to normal security
arrangements in Northern Ireland,” including the removal of security installations. In February arrangements in Northern Ireland,” including the removal of security installations. In February
2007, the last of more than 100 armored watchtowers in Northern Ireland was dismantled. In July 2007, the last of more than 100 armored watchtowers in Northern Ireland was dismantled. In July
2007, the British Army ended its 38-year-long military operation in Northern Ireland. Although a 2007, the British Army ended its 38-year-long military operation in Northern Ireland. Although a
regular garrison of 5,000 British troops remains based in Northern Ireland, British forces no regular garrison of 5,000 British troops remains based in Northern Ireland, British forces no
longer have a role in policing and may be deployed worldwide. longer have a role in policing and may be deployed worldwide.
Rights, Safeguards, and Equality of Opportunity
In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions related to human rights and equality, In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions related to human rights and equality,
the UK government incorporated the European Convention on Human Rights into Northern the UK government incorporated the European Convention on Human Rights into Northern
Ireland law and established a new Human Rights Commission and a new Equality Commission Ireland law and established a new Human Rights Commission and a new Equality Commission
for Northern Ireland. Some nationalists, however, continue to press for more progress in the area for Northern Ireland. Some nationalists, however, continue to press for more progress in the area
of human rights and equality. They argue that Northern Ireland needs its own Bill of Rights of human rights and equality. They argue that Northern Ireland needs its own Bill of Rights
(consideration of which is provided for in the Good Friday Agreement) and a stand-alone Irish (consideration of which is provided for in the Good Friday Agreement) and a stand-alone Irish
Language Act to give the Irish language the same official status as English in Northern Ireland. Language Act to give the Irish language the same official status as English in Northern Ireland.
The Good Friday Agreement calls for tolerance of linguistic diversity in Northern Ireland and The Good Friday Agreement calls for tolerance of linguistic diversity in Northern Ireland and
support for the Irish language. The subsequent St. Andrews Agreement of 2006 provided for an support for the Irish language. The subsequent St. Andrews Agreement of 2006 provided for an
Irish Language Act, but this issue remains controversial (see text box, “Language and Cultural Irish Language Act, but this issue remains controversial (see text box, “Language and Cultural
Issues,” below). Issues,” below).

7 See 7 See A New Beginning: Policing in Northern Ireland, Report of the Independent Commission on Policing for Northern , Report of the Independent Commission on Policing for Northern
Ireland, September 1999, at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/police/patten/patten99.pdf. Ireland, September 1999, at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/police/patten/patten99.pdf.
8 “Police 50-50 Recruiting System Is to End,” BBC News, March 28, 2011. 8 “Police 50-50 Recruiting System Is to End,” BBC News, March 28, 2011.
9 Deborah McAleese, “Top Officer’s ‘Deep Concern’ at Lack of Catholics Signing Up for Police Career in Northern 9 Deborah McAleese, “Top Officer’s ‘Deep Concern’ at Lack of Catholics Signing Up for Police Career in Northern
Ireland,” Ireland,” Belfast Telegraph, October 23, 2015; Vincent Kearney, “PSNI Aims to Recruit 300 New Officers,” BBC , October 23, 2015; Vincent Kearney, “PSNI Aims to Recruit 300 New Officers,” BBC
News, October 23, 2017; Julian O’Neill, “Catholic Recruitment an Issue as PSNI Turns 20,” BBC News, November 2, News, October 23, 2017; Julian O’Neill, “Catholic Recruitment an Issue as PSNI Turns 20,” BBC News, November 2,
2021. 2021.
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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

Initiatives to Further the Peace Process
Many analysts view implementation of the most important aspects of the Good Friday Agreement Many analysts view implementation of the most important aspects of the Good Friday Agreement
as complete. Since 2013, however, the Northern Ireland political parties and the UK and Irish as complete. Since 2013, however, the Northern Ireland political parties and the UK and Irish
governments have made several attempts to reduce sectarian tensions and promote reconciliation. governments have made several attempts to reduce sectarian tensions and promote reconciliation.
Major endeavors include the following: Major endeavors include the following:
  The 2013 Haass Initiative. In 2013, the Northern Ireland Executive appointed In 2013, the Northern Ireland Executive appointed
former U.S. diplomat and special envoy for Northern Ireland Richard Haass as former U.S. diplomat and special envoy for Northern Ireland Richard Haass as
the independent chair of interparty talks aimed at tackling some of the most the independent chair of interparty talks aimed at tackling some of the most
divisive issues in Northern Ireland society.10 In particular, Haass was tasked with divisive issues in Northern Ireland society.10 In particular, Haass was tasked with
making recommendations on dealing with the past and the sectarian issues of making recommendations on dealing with the past and the sectarian issues of
parading, protests, and the use of flags and emblems. In December 2013, Haass parading, protests, and the use of flags and emblems. In December 2013, Haass
released a draft proposal outlining the way forward in these areas, but he was released a draft proposal outlining the way forward in these areas, but he was
unable to broker a final agreement among the Northern Ireland political parties.11 unable to broker a final agreement among the Northern Ireland political parties.11
  The 2014 Stormont House Agreement. In 2014, financial pressures and In 2014, financial pressures and
budgetary disputes related to UK-wide welfare reforms and austerity measures budgetary disputes related to UK-wide welfare reforms and austerity measures
tested Northern Ireland’s devolved government. The UK and Irish governments tested Northern Ireland’s devolved government. The UK and Irish governments
convened interparty talks to address government finances and governing convened interparty talks to address government finances and governing
structures, as well as the issues previously tackled by the Haass initiative. In the structures, as well as the issues previously tackled by the Haass initiative. In the
resulting December 2014 Stormont House Agreement, the Northern Ireland resulting December 2014 Stormont House Agreement, the Northern Ireland
political parties agreed to support welfare reform (with certain mitigating political parties agreed to support welfare reform (with certain mitigating
measures), balance the budget, address Northern Ireland’s heavy reliance on the measures), balance the budget, address Northern Ireland’s heavy reliance on the
public sector, and reduce the size of the Assembly and the number of Executive public sector, and reduce the size of the Assembly and the number of Executive
departments to improve efficiency and cut costs. The agreement also included departments to improve efficiency and cut costs. The agreement also included
measures on parading, flags, and dealing with the past. Continued disagreements measures on parading, flags, and dealing with the past. Continued disagreements
over welfare reform between the DUP and Sinn Fein, however, stalled over welfare reform between the DUP and Sinn Fein, however, stalled
implementation of all aspects of the Stormont House Agreement.12 implementation of all aspects of the Stormont House Agreement.12
  The 2015 Fresh Start Agreement. In November 2015, the UK and Irish In November 2015, the UK and Irish
governments, the DUP, and Sinn Fein reached a new Fresh Start Agreement. Like governments, the DUP, and Sinn Fein reached a new Fresh Start Agreement. Like
the Stormont House Agreement, the accord focused on implementing welfare the Stormont House Agreement, the accord focused on implementing welfare
reform and improving the stability and sustainability of Northern Ireland’s reform and improving the stability and sustainability of Northern Ireland’s
budget and governing institutions. It confirmed a reduction in the size of the budget and governing institutions. It confirmed a reduction in the size of the
Assembly from 108 to 90 members (effective from the first Assembly election Assembly from 108 to 90 members (effective from the first Assembly election
after the May 2016 election), decreased the number of Executive departments, after the May 2016 election), decreased the number of Executive departments,
and made provision for an official opposition in the Assembly. The Fresh Start and made provision for an official opposition in the Assembly. The Fresh Start
Agreement also included provisions on parading and the use of flags, but the Agreement also included provisions on parading and the use of flags, but the
parties were unable to reach final agreement on establishing new institutions to parties were unable to reach final agreement on establishing new institutions to
deal with the past. In addition, the Fresh Start Agreement addressed ongoing deal with the past. In addition, the Fresh Start Agreement addressed ongoing
concerns about paramilitary activity, sparked by the arrest of a senior Sinn Fein concerns about paramilitary activity, sparked by the arrest of a senior Sinn Fein
official in connection to the August 2015 murder of an ex-IRA member.13 official in connection to the August 2015 murder of an ex-IRA member.13

10 Richard Haass served as President George W. Bush’s special envoy for Northern Ireland from 2001 to 2003; he is 10 Richard Haass served as President George W. Bush’s special envoy for Northern Ireland from 2001 to 2003; he is
currently president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. currently president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.
11 For the full text of the December 31, 2013, draft agreement presented by Haass and his negotiating team, see 11 For the full text of the December 31, 2013, draft agreement presented by Haass and his negotiating team, see
http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/haass.pdf. http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/haass.pdf.
12 The Stormont House Agreement is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-stormont-house- 12 The Stormont House Agreement is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-stormont-house-
agreement. agreement.
13 The Fresh Start Agreement is available at Government of the UK, “News Story: A Fresh Start for Northern Ireland,” 13 The Fresh Start Agreement is available at Government of the UK, “News Story: A Fresh Start for Northern Ireland,”
November 17, 2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a-fresh-start-for-northern-ireland. November 17, 2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a-fresh-start-for-northern-ireland.
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Ongoing Political Instability and Renewed Turmoil
Despite a much-improved security situation since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, concerns Despite a much-improved security situation since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, concerns
remain about the stability of Northern Ireland’s devolved government and the fragility of remain about the stability of Northern Ireland’s devolved government and the fragility of
community relations. As noted, the devolved government collapsed in January 2017 amid community relations. As noted, the devolved government collapsed in January 2017 amid
heightened tensions related to Brexit and other issues. Snap Assembly elections were held in heightened tensions related to Brexit and other issues. Snap Assembly elections were held in
March 2017. It took nearly three years—until January 2020—to reestablish the devolved March 2017. It took nearly three years—until January 2020—to reestablish the devolved
government, led by then-First Minister Arlene Foster of the DUP and Deputy First Minister government, led by then-First Minister Arlene Foster of the DUP and Deputy First Minister
Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Fein. Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Fein.
Since then, the devolved government has been tested by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID- Since then, the devolved government has been tested by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-
19) pandemic and by challenges due to the implementation of the post-Brexit trade and customs 19) pandemic and by challenges due to the implementation of the post-Brexit trade and customs
rules for Northern Ireland, which many unionists view as dividing Northern Ireland from the rest rules for Northern Ireland, which many unionists view as dividing Northern Ireland from the rest
of the UK (i.e., Great Britain). The post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland also have of the UK (i.e., Great Britain). The post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland also have
prompted political turmoil within the DUP. Arlene Foster stepped down as DUP party leader at prompted political turmoil within the DUP. Arlene Foster stepped down as DUP party leader at
the end of May 2021 and as first minister in June 2021. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson became the leader the end of May 2021 and as first minister in June 2021. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson became the leader
of the DUP in late June (the DUP’s second new leader in a month)of the DUP in late June (the DUP’s second new leader in a month);. Paul Givan, a DUP member Paul Givan, a DUP member
of the Assembly, of the Assembly, ~~currently serves~~succeeded Foster as first minister but resigned from this position in early February 2022, amid ongoing DUP opposition to the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland. The next regularly scheduled Assembly elections are due to be held on May 5, 2022. (See “DUP Leadership Changes and the Current Political Crisis,” below.) 2017-2020 Crisis in the Devolved Government In January 2017, several contentious regional issues—including a scandal over a renewable energy program—and unease in Northern Ireland over Brexit in the wake of the June 2016 UK referendum on EU membership prompted the collapse of the devolved government ~~as first minister. (See “Recent DUP Leadership Crisis,” below.)~~
~~The next regularly scheduled Assembly elections are due in May 2022.~~
~~2017-2020 Crisis in the Devolved Government~~
~~March 2017 Snap Assembly Elections~~
~~The immediate impetus for the devolved government’s January 2017 collapse was a scandal over~~
~~flaws in a renewable energy program initially overseen by then-First Minister Foster in her~~
~~previous role as enterprise minister in 2012. Then-Deputy First Minister Martin McGuiness of~~
~~Sinn Fein called for Foster to stand aside as first minister temporarily while the energy scheme~~
~~was investigated; Foster refused, and McGuinness resigned as deputy first minister in protest.~~
~~McGuinness’s resignation in effect forced new elections to be called for March 2, 2017 (under the~~
~~rules governing Northern Ireland’s power-sharing arrangements, if either the first minister or the~~
~~deputy first minister resigns without a replacement being nominated within seven days, the~~
~~government cannot continue and new elections must be held).~~
~~Tensions on several issues other than the energy scandal contributed to Sinn Fein’s decision to~~
~~force snap Assembly elections. The elections were called in the wake of the June 2016 UK~~
~~referendum on EU membership and amid deep unease over Brexit’s implications for Northern~~
~~Ireland~~. Other points . Other points of tension~~of contention~~ included the introduction of a potential Irish Language Act included the introduction of a potential Irish Language Act
and the legalization of same-sex marriage; Sinn Fein supported both measures, whereas the DUP and the legalization of same-sex marriage; Sinn Fein supported both measures, whereas the DUP
~~opposed them.14 Foster led the DUP’s election campaign, but Michelle O’Neill succeeded~~
~~McGuinness as Sinn Fein’s leader in Northern Ireland and led Sinn Fein’s campaign~~
~~(McGuinness was ill and passed away a few weeks after the election).~~
~~As seen i~~nopposed them. New Assembly elections were called for March 2, 2017. As seen in Table 1, the number of Assembly seats contested in 2017 was 90 rather than 108 the number of Assembly seats contested in 2017 was 90 rather than 108
(contested in the regularly scheduled 2016 elections)(contested in the regularly scheduled 2016 elections), because of a previously agreed reduction in because of a previously agreed reduction in
the size of the Assembly. The DUP retained the largest number of seats in 2017, but Sinn Fein the size of the Assembly. The DUP retained the largest number of seats in 2017, but Sinn Fein
was regarded as the biggest winner, given its success in reducing the previous gap between the was regarded as the biggest winner, given its success in reducing the previous gap between the
two parties from 10 seats to 1 seat. A high voter turnout of almost 65%—fueled by anger over the two parties from 10 seats to 1 seat. A high voter turnout of almost 65%—fueled by anger over the

~~14 Sinead O’Shea, “Northern Ireland, Forced by Sinn Fein, Sets Early Election in Shadow of Brexit,” New York Times,~~
~~January 16, 2017; “NI Election: Everything You Need to Know About the 2017 Vote,” BBC News, March 4, 2017.~~
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~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

~~energy scandal and a perceived lack of concern from London about Brexit’s impact on Northern~~
~~Ireland—appears to have favored Sinn Fein and the cross-community Alliance Party. For the first~~
~~time in the Assembly, the unionist parties did not win a collective majority (a largely symbolic~~
~~status because of the power-sharing rules but highly emblematic for the unionist community).15~~energy scandal and a perceived lack of concern from London about Brexit’s impact on Northern Ireland—appears to have favored Sinn Fein and the cross-community Alliance Party. For the first time in the Assembly, the unionist parties did not win a collective majority (a largely symbolic status because of the power-sharing rules but highly emblematic for the unionist community).14 Following the March 2017 elections, negotiations on forming a new devolved government repeatedly stalled between the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the other main political parties (see text box, “Main Political Parties in Northern Ireland,” below). A key sticking point was a potential Irish Language Act. Divisions over Brexit exacerbated tensions. The DUP was the only major Northern Ireland political party to back Brexit, which Sinn Fein and the other main Northern Ireland parties strongly opposed. 14 Sinead O’Shea, “Northern Ireland, Forced by Sinn Fein, Sets Early Election in Shadow of Brexit,” New York Times, January 16, 2017; Harry McGee, “DUP Smarting from Close Encounter with Sinn Fein Crocodile,” Irish Times, March 3, 2017; Enda McClafferty, “Assembly Election a Brutal Result for Unionism,” BBC News, March 4, 2017. Congressional Research Service 7 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests
Table 1. Northern Ireland: Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs)
2016 and 2017 election results 2016 and 2017 election results
Political Party
2016
2017
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP; hard-line unionist, conservative) Democratic Unionist Party (DUP; hard-line unionist, conservative)
38 38
28 28
Sinn Fein (SF; hard-line nationalist, left-wing) Sinn Fein (SF; hard-line nationalist, left-wing)
28 28
27 27
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP; moderate nationalist, center-left) Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP; moderate nationalist, center-left)
12 12
12 12
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP; moderate unionist, center-right) Ulster Unionist Party (UUP; moderate unionist, center-right)
16 16
10 10
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI; nonsectarian, centrist/liberal) Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI; nonsectarian, centrist/liberal)
8 8
8 8
Green Party (nonsectarian; left-wing) Green Party (nonsectarian; left-wing)
2 2
2 2
People Before Profit Alliance (PBPA; nonsectarian, left-wing) People Before Profit Alliance (PBPA; nonsectarian, left-wing)
2 2
1 1
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV; hard-line unionist, right-wing) Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV; hard-line unionist, right-wing)
1 1
1 1
Independent (unionist) Independent (unionist)
1 1
1 1
Total
108
90
Sources: BBC, “NI Election 2016: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2016/northern_ireland/BBC, “NI Election 2016: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2016/northern_ireland/
results, and BBC, “NI Election 2017: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/ni2017/results. results, and BBC, “NI Election 2017: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/ni2017/results.
Main Political Parties in Northern Ireland
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The DUP has been the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland since The DUP has been the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland since
2003. It enjoys considerable Protestant support and strongly favors union with the United Kingdom2003. It enjoys considerable Protestant support and strongly favors union with the United Kingdom ~~(UK)~~. The . The
party initially opposed the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, viewing virtually any compromise with Irish nationalists party initially opposed the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, viewing virtually any compromise with Irish nationalists
as a net loss for unionists. as a net loss for unionists. ~~Socially~~Social y conservative, the DUP opposes abortion and same-sex marriage. conservative, the DUP opposes abortion and same-sex marriage. ~~From 2015~~
~~until May 2021, the DUP was led by Arlene Foster.~~ In late June 2021, fol owing a period of political turmoil within In late June 2021, fol owing a period of political turmoil within
the party, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson becamethe party, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson became ~~the new~~ leader of the DUP. leader of the DUP.
Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein has been the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland since 2003. It advocates for a Sinn Fein has been the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland since 2003. It advocates for a
united Ireland. Sinn Fein is an all-island party and has a political presence in Northern Ireland and Ireland (with united Ireland. Sinn Fein is an all-island party and has a political presence in Northern Ireland and Ireland (with
members in both the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Irish Parliament). Historically, Sinn Fein was the political members in both the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Irish Parliament). Historically, Sinn Fein was the political
party associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA). A left-wing party, Sinn Fein traditionally has received party associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA). A left-wing party, Sinn Fein traditionally has received
considerable support from working-class Catholics. In 2018, Mary Lou McDonald became leader of Sinn Fein, considerable support from working-class Catholics. In 2018, Mary Lou McDonald became leader of Sinn Fein,
replacing former long-serving leader Gerry Adams. Since 2017, Michelle O’Neil has led Sinn Fein in the Northern replacing former long-serving leader Gerry Adams. Since 2017, Michelle O’Neil has led Sinn Fein in the Northern
Ireland Assembly and is considered the party’s “northern leader”; she is also the party’s deputy leader. Ireland Assembly and is considered the party’s “northern leader”; she is also the party’s deputy leader.
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). The UUP is a smaller, center-right Protestant party that supports union with the The UUP is a smaller, center-right Protestant party that supports union with the
UK. It was the lead unionist party involved in the negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. In May 2021, the UK. It was the lead unionist party involved in the negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. In May 2021, the
UUP elected Doug Beattie as its leader. UUP elected Doug Beattie as its leader.
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). The SDLP is a smaller, center-left Catholic party that The SDLP is a smaller, center-left Catholic party that
supports a united Ireland achieved through peaceful means. It was the lead nationalist party involved in the supports a united Ireland achieved through peaceful means. It was the lead nationalist party involved in the
negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. The SDLP has been led by Colum Eastwood since 2015. negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. The SDLP has been led by Colum Eastwood since 2015.
Alliance Party. The Alliance Party is a nonsectarian, cross-community party. It is centrist and liberal in political The Alliance Party is a nonsectarian, cross-community party. It is centrist and liberal in political
orientation. The Alliance Party has been led by Naomi Long since 2016. orientation. The Alliance Party has been led by Naomi Long since 2016.

~~15 Harry McGee, “DUP Smarting from Close Encounter with Sinn Fein Crocodile,” Irish Times, March 3, 2017; Enda~~
~~McClafferty, “Assembly Election a Brutal Result for Unionism,” BBC News, March 4, 2017.~~
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~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

~~Reestablishing the Devolved Government~~
~~Following the March 2017 snap Assembly elections, negotiations on forming a new devolved~~
~~government repeatedly stalled between the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the other main political parties~~
~~(see text box, “Main Political Parties in Northern Ireland,” above). A key sticking point was a~~
~~potential Irish Language Act. Divisions over Brexit exacerbated tensions. The DUP was the only~~
~~major Northern Ireland political party to back Brexit, which Sinn Fein and the other main~~
~~Northern Ireland parties strongly opposed.~~
~~On December 16,~~ In December 2019, the UK and Irish governments launched a new round of talks with the 2019, the UK and Irish governments launched a new round of talks with the
main political parties aimed at reestablishing the devolved government. These negotiations main political parties aimed at reestablishing the devolved government. These negotiations
followed a UK snap general electionfollowed a UK snap general election ~~on December 12, 2019~~, in which Prime Minister Boris , in which Prime Minister Boris
Johnson’s Conservative Party won a convincing parliamentary majority. The 2019 election results Johnson’s Conservative Party won a convincing parliamentary majority. The 2019 election results
negated the DUP’s influence in the UK Parliament and thus improved the prospects for restoring negated the DUP’s influence in the UK Parliament and thus improved the prospects for restoring
~~Northern Ireland’s devolved government.16~~Northern Ireland’s government.15 15 Padraic Halpin, “UK Election Clears Way for Northern Ireland Devolution, Dublin Says,” Reuters, December 13, 2019; Annabelle Dickson, “Northern Ireland’s Post-election Refocus,” Politico, December 16, 2019. Congressional Research Service 8 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests
On January 10, 2020, the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the other parties agreed to a deal put forward by On January 10, 2020, the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the other parties agreed to a deal put forward by
the UK and Irish governments to reestablish the devolved government. The new power-sharing the UK and Irish governments to reestablish the devolved government. The new power-sharing
~~deal~~agreement, known as New Decade, New Approach, is wide-ranging and addresses a number of key , known as New Decade, New Approach, is wide-ranging and addresses a number of key
issues, including health, education, and measures to improve the sustainability of Northern issues, including health, education, and measures to improve the sustainability of Northern
Ireland’s political institutions. The deal did not include a stand-alone Irish Language Act, as Ireland’s political institutions. The deal did not include a stand-alone Irish Language Act, as
initially demanded by Sinn Fein, but essentially sought to strike a compromise to promote the use initially demanded by Sinn Fein, but essentially sought to strike a compromise to promote the use
of the Irish (Gaelic) language while protecting the Ulster-Scots language (a regional language of the Irish (Gaelic) language while protecting the Ulster-Scots language (a regional language
similar to English). Most of the agreed language and culture provisions remain to be enacted in similar to English). Most of the agreed language and culture provisions remain to be enacted in
legislation (see text box, “Language and Cultural Issues,” below).legislation (see text box, “Language and Cultural Issues,” below).17
~~Recent~~ 16 DUP Leadership Changes and the Current Political Crisis
In late April 2021, DUP dissatisfaction with then-First Minister Foster’s leadership over Brexit In late April 2021, DUP dissatisfaction with then-First Minister Foster’s leadership over Brexit
and other controversies prompted her to announce that she would step down as DUP party leader and other controversies prompted her to announce that she would step down as DUP party leader
at the end of May and as First Minister in June. In May 2021, the DUP chose Northern Ireland at the end of May and as First Minister in June. In May 2021, the DUP chose Northern Ireland
Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots as its new leader. Poots announced that he did not intend to Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots as its new leader. Poots announced that he did not intend to
serve as first minister and chose a close ally, Paul Givan, to become first minister. serve as first minister and chose a close ally, Paul Givan, to become first minister.
Foster officially resigned as first minister on June 14, 2021. Under the devolved government’s Foster officially resigned as first minister on June 14, 2021. Under the devolved government’s
power-sharing rules, Foster’s resignation also forced Deputy First Minister O’Neill to step down. power-sharing rules, Foster’s resignation also forced Deputy First Minister O’Neill to step down.
The first minister and deputy first minister positions are considered a joint office; if one resigns, The first minister and deputy first minister positions are considered a joint office; if one resigns,
the other also ceases to hold office. Following these resignations, the DUP and Sinn Fein had the other also ceases to hold office. Following these resignations, the DUP and Sinn Fein had
seven days to nominate replacements for these positionsseven days to nominate replacements for these positions~~. As noted, if either party fails to~~
~~nominate a replacement by the end of the seven days, new Assembly elections must be called.~~
~~These rules mean the first minister and deputy first minister posts essentially must have the~~
~~support of both the DUP and Sinn Fein~~ under rules in effect at the time. .
Sinn Fein indicated it would refuse to renominate O’Neill as deputy first minister following Sinn Fein indicated it would refuse to renominate O’Neill as deputy first minister following
Foster’s resignation without progress in enacting into law the measures Foster’s resignation without progress in enacting into law the measures on the Irish language and cultural issues previously agreed to in previously agreed to in
the 2020 New Decade, New Approach dealthe 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal ~~on the Irish language and other cultural issues~~. On . On
June 17, June 17, 2021, to avoid the prospect that the devolved government might collapse, the UK government and ~~2021, to avoid the prospect of a collapse in the devolved government and another snap~~

~~16 Padraic Halpin, “UK Election Clears Way for Northern Ireland Devolution, Dublin Says,” Reuters, December 13,~~
~~2019; Annabelle Dickson, “Northern Ireland’s Post-election Refocus,” Politico, December 16, 2019.~~
~~17 The text of the New Decade, New Approach deal is available at Government of the UK, “Deal to See Restored~~
~~Government in Northern Ireland Tomorrow,” January 9, 2020, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deal-to-see-~~
~~restored-government-in-northern-ireland-tomorrow.~~
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~~Assembly election, the UK government and~~ Sinn Fein agreed to a timetable for the introduction Sinn Fein agreed to a timetable for the introduction
of the Irish language and culture legislation (see text box, “Language and Cultural Issues,” of the Irish language and culture legislation (see text box, “Language and Cultural Issues,”
below). Poots backed this UK-Sinn Fein deal and nominated Givan as first minister, despite below). Poots backed this UK-Sinn Fein deal and nominated Givan as first minister, despite
concerns within the DUP about the language legislation agreement and resulting DUP opposition concerns within the DUP about the language legislation agreement and resulting DUP opposition
to proceeding with Givan’s nomination. Although Givan and O’Neill were confirmed as first to proceeding with Givan’s nomination. Although Givan and O’Neill were confirmed as first
minister and deputy first minister, respectively, DUP unhappiness with Poots’s leadership forced minister and deputy first minister, respectively, DUP unhappiness with Poots’s leadership forced
him to announce his resignation as party leader.him to announce his resignation as party leader.1817
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson—a DUP member of the UK Parliament—replaced Poots as DUP party Sir Jeffrey Donaldson—a DUP member of the UK Parliament—replaced Poots as DUP party
leader on June 30, 2021. Donaldson asserted that his priority as DUP leader would be to “right the leader on June 30, 2021. Donaldson asserted that his priority as DUP leader would be to “right the
wrong” imposed by the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland.wrong” imposed by the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland.1918 Givan Givan ~~remains~~remained as first first
ministerminister ~~at present, but Donaldson hopes~~, although Donaldson expressed his intention to assume the role in the future. On February 3, 2022, First Minister Givan resigned to protest the slow progress in UK-EU negotiations aimed at resolving difficulties with the post-Brexit trade and customs rules for Northern Ireland. With Givan’s resignation, Deputy First Minister O’Neill lost her position, too, and the Northern Ireland Executive was unable to meet or make decisions. Under new legislation 16 Government of the UK, New Decade, New Approach, January 9, 2020, at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/856998/2020-01-08_a_new_decade__a_new_approach.pdf. 17 Colm Kelpie and Ciara Colhoun, “DUP Revolt over First Minister Confirmation,” BBC News, June 17, 2021. 18 Freya McClements, “Jeffrey Donaldson Ratified as DUP’s New Leader After Meeting of Executive,” Irish Times, June 30, 2021. Congressional Research Service 9 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests passed by the UK Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly was able to continue working on legislation already in progress.19 Regularly scheduled Assembly elections are due to be held on May 5, 2022. Sinn Fein called for the elections to be moved up in light of Givan’s resignation and the resulting freeze on the work of the Executive, but the UK government ruled out an early election. DUP officials contend that it could be “difficult” to form a new devolved government after the May elections if issues with the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland are not resolved. Some polls suggest Sinn Fein may surpass the DUP in the May elections to become the largest party ~~to assume the role in the future. To do so, Donaldson~~
~~would need to resign his position as a member of Parliament and become a member of the~~
~~Northern Ireland Assembly. Donaldson has signaled his intention to stand as a candidate~~ in the in the
~~next Assembly elections~~next Northern Ireland Assembly; such an outcome also could pose challenges to forming a new government.20 .20
Language and Cultural Issues
Sinn Fein and other nationalists have long demanded measures to promote and protect the Irish (Gaelic) language Sinn Fein and other nationalists have long demanded measures to promote and protect the Irish (Gaelic) language
in Northern Ireland. Divisions with unionists on this issue have posed political challenges for the devolved in Northern Ireland. Divisions with unionists on this issue have posed political challenges for the devolved
government for years. As part of the January 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal to restore the devolved government for years. As part of the January 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal to restore the devolved
government, the Northern Ireland political parties agreed to provide for the official recognition in Northern government, the Northern Ireland political parties agreed to provide for the official recognition in Northern
Ireland of both the Irish language and the Ulster-Scots language (which many unionists consider important to their Ireland of both the Irish language and the Ulster-Scots language (which many unionists consider important to their
heritage) and to allow the wider use of both languages in government settings. The deal also called for establishing heritage) and to allow the wider use of both languages in government settings. The deal also called for establishing
two new “language commissioners”—one for Irish and one for Ulster-Scots—to enhance, protect, and develop two new “language commissioners”—one for Irish and one for Ulster-Scots—to enhance, protect, and develop
each language and associated cultural traditions. Most of these language and cultural measures, however, remain to each language and associated cultural traditions. Most of these language and cultural measures, however, remain to
be enacted. In June 2021, the UK government and Sinn Fein agreed the UK be enacted. In June 2021, the UK government and Sinn Fein agreed the UK ~~parliament~~Parliament would introduce the would introduce the
language and culture legislation in October 2021 if the Northern Ireland Assembly failed to do so by then. This language and culture legislation in October 2021 if the Northern Ireland Assembly failed to do so by then. This
timetable has slipped, and the legislation has not been introduced in the Northern Ireland Assembly or in the UK timetable has slipped, and the legislation has not been introduced in the Northern Ireland Assembly or in the UK
~~parliament~~Parliament to date. UK officials assert that legislation wil be introduced in the UK Parliament before ~~to date. UK officials reportedly are working with the Northern Ireland political parties on the~~
~~legislation ahead of~~ the Northern Ireland Assembly elections in May 2022. the Northern Ireland Assembly elections in May 2022.
Sources: Shawn Pogatchnik, “Midnight Breakthrough Saves Northern Ireland Power-Sharing,” Shawn Pogatchnik, “Midnight Breakthrough Saves Northern Ireland Power-Sharing,” Politico, June 17, , June 17,
2021; Robbie Meredith, “Irish Language Groups Urge Westminster Move-On for Legislation,” BBC News, 2021; Robbie Meredith, “Irish Language Groups Urge Westminster Move-On for Legislation,” BBC News,
November 16, 2021; itv.com, “November 16, 2021; itv.com, “~~UK Government Focused on Passing Irish Language Laws Before End of Current~~
~~Stormont Mandate,” January 11~~Government ‘Firmly Intends’ to Bring NI Language Legislation Before Election,” February 9, 2022. , 2022.
Resurgence of Rioting and Violence in Spring 2021
In late March and early April 2021, sporadic violence and rioting erupted for roughly 12 days in In late March and early April 2021, sporadic violence and rioting erupted for roughly 12 days in
several cities and towns in Northern Ireland, including Belfast and Londonderry (or Derry). The several cities and towns in Northern Ireland, including Belfast and Londonderry (or Derry). The
unrest began with gangs of youths in a predominantly unionist/loyalist area of Londonderry on unrest began with gangs of youths in a predominantly unionist/loyalist area of Londonderry on
March 29; rioting in Belfast on April 7—including attacks on police officers and a bus—was March 29; rioting in Belfast on April 7—including attacks on police officers and a bus—was
described as some of the worst violence in Northern Ireland in years. Almost 90 police officers described as some of the worst violence in Northern Ireland in years. Almost 90 police officers
were injured over the course of the violence.21 were injured over the course of the violence.21

~~18 Colm Kelpie and Ciara Colhoun, “DUP Revolt over First Minister Confirmation,” BBC News, June 17, 2021.~~
~~19 Freya McClements, “Jeffrey Donaldson Ratified as DUP’s New Leader After Meeting of Executive,” Irish Times,~~
~~June 30, 2021.~~
~~20 “Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to Run for Lagan Valley MLA Seat,” BBC News, August 24, 2021.~~
Much of the unrest was concentrated in economically disadvantaged communities where criminal gangs linked to loyalist paramilitaries have considerable influence, but the violence also spread to interface areas between unionist and nationalist neighborhoods. Initial assessments suggested loyalist paramilitaries could be orchestrating the riots and violence in some areas, but Northern Ireland police authorities subsequently concluded that although individuals with ties to such 19 Jayne McCormack, “Givan Resignation Triggers Fresh Political Crisis in NI,” BBC News, February 3, 2022. 20 itv.com, “Sinn Fein Still on Course to be Northern Ireland’s Largest Party, Poll Suggests,” January 22, 2022; BBC News, “DUP’s Donaldson Says Executive Return ‘Difficult’ If NI Protocol Remains,” February 5, 2022; Irish Times, “UK Secretary for Northern Ireland Rules Out Early Stormont Election,” February 8, 2022; Irish Times, “Sinn Fein on Course to be Largest Stormont Party, Says New Opinion Poll,” February 14, 2022. 21 Jordan Kenny, “Timeline: How Northern Ireland’s Violence Unfolded,” BBC News, April 12, 2021; “Belfast: 21 Jordan Kenny, “Timeline: How Northern Ireland’s Violence Unfolded,” BBC News, April 12, 2021; “Belfast:
Rioting ‘Was Worst Seen in Northern Ireland in Years,’” BBC News, April 14, 2021. Rioting ‘Was Worst Seen in Northern Ireland in Years,’” BBC News, April 14, 2021.
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~~Much of the unrest was concentrated in economically disadvantaged communities where criminal~~
~~gangs linked to loyalist paramilitaries have considerable influence, but the violence also spread to~~
~~interface areas between unionist and nationalist neighborhoods. Initial assessments suggested~~
~~loyalist paramilitaries could be orchestrating the riots and violence in some areas, but Northern~~
~~Ireland police authorities subsequently concluded that although individuals with ties to such~~
loyalist groups may have been involved, the groups did not sanction or organize the unrest.22 (See loyalist groups may have been involved, the groups did not sanction or organize the unrest.22 (See
“Remaining Paramilitary Issues and Dissident Activity,” below.) The Northern Ireland Assembly “Remaining Paramilitary Issues and Dissident Activity,” below.) The Northern Ireland Assembly
unanimously condemned the violence, as did the UK and Irish governments.23 unanimously condemned the violence, as did the UK and Irish governments.23
A complex combination of factors lies behind the unrest. Considerable attention has focused on A complex combination of factors lies behind the unrest. Considerable attention has focused on
unionist unhappiness with the post-Brexit border and customs arrangements for Northern Ireland. unionist unhappiness with the post-Brexit border and customs arrangements for Northern Ireland.
Amid other demographic, political, and societal changes in Northern Ireland, the post-Brexit Amid other demographic, political, and societal changes in Northern Ireland, the post-Brexit
provisions appear to have exacerbated unionist concerns that their British identity is under threat provisions appear to have exacerbated unionist concerns that their British identity is under threat
and enhanced a sense of unionist disenfranchisement and abandonment. Some analysts suggest and enhanced a sense of unionist disenfranchisement and abandonment. Some analysts suggest
that strong rhetoric against the Brexit arrangements from unionist politicians may have further that strong rhetoric against the Brexit arrangements from unionist politicians may have further
fueled tensions in unionist/loyalist communities and contributed to instigating the unrest. (See fueled tensions in unionist/loyalist communities and contributed to instigating the unrest. (See
“Implications of Brexit,” below.) “Implications of Brexit,” below.)
At the same time, observers note that the immediate spark for the violence followed a decision in At the same time, observers note that the immediate spark for the violence followed a decision in
late March 2021 by Northern Ireland authorities not to prosecute violations of COVID-19 social late March 2021 by Northern Ireland authorities not to prosecute violations of COVID-19 social
distancing restrictions and public health protocols at a 2,000-person funeral in June 2020 for a distancing restrictions and public health protocols at a 2,000-person funeral in June 2020 for a
former high-ranking IRA official. Sinn Fein leadership, including Deputy First Minister O’Neill, former high-ranking IRA official. Sinn Fein leadership, including Deputy First Minister O’Neill,
attended the funeral. For many unionists, this incident—and what they regarded as a lack of attended the funeral. For many unionists, this incident—and what they regarded as a lack of
police enforcement of the COVID-19 restrictions on the funeral—reinforced their long-standing police enforcement of the COVID-19 restrictions on the funeral—reinforced their long-standing
views of a double standard in policing and the judiciary in favor of nationalists and, more broadly, views of a double standard in policing and the judiciary in favor of nationalists and, more broadly,
a sense that the 1998 peace accord has benefited nationalists and republicans more than the a sense that the 1998 peace accord has benefited nationalists and republicans more than the
unionist and loyalist communities. Additional factors behind the rioting also may include unionist and loyalist communities. Additional factors behind the rioting also may include
frustration and boredom due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, especially among young people from frustration and boredom due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, especially among young people from
economically deprived areas.24 economically deprived areas.24
Ongoing Challenges in the Peace Process
The search for peace and reconciliation in Northern Ireland remains challenging. Difficult issues The search for peace and reconciliation in Northern Ireland remains challenging. Difficult issues
include bridging sectarian divisions and managing key sticking points (especially parading, include bridging sectarian divisions and managing key sticking points (especially parading,
protests, and the use of flags and emblems); dealing with the past; addressing remaining protests, and the use of flags and emblems); dealing with the past; addressing remaining
paramilitary concerns and curbing dissident activity; and furthering economic development and paramilitary concerns and curbing dissident activity; and furthering economic development and
equality. The 2013 Haass initiative, 2014 Stormont House Agreement, and 2015 Fresh Start equality. The 2013 Haass initiative, 2014 Stormont House Agreement, and 2015 Fresh Start
Agreement attempted to tackle some aspects of these long-standing challenges. Some measures Agreement attempted to tackle some aspects of these long-standing challenges. Some measures
agreed to in these successive accords were delayed amid the absence of a devolved government agreed to in these successive accords were delayed amid the absence of a devolved government
between 2017 and 2020. between 2017 and 2020.
Sectarian Divisions Observers suggest that Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society, with Protestant and Catholic communities existing largely in parallel. Schools and housing developments in Northern Ireland remain mostly single-identity communities. In March 2022, despite some opposition from
22 Lisa O’Carroll, “Northern Ireland Police Say Paramilitaries Not Behind Recent Violence,” 22 Lisa O’Carroll, “Northern Ireland Police Say Paramilitaries Not Behind Recent Violence,” Guardian, April 9, 2021; , April 9, 2021;
Laura Noonan, “Criminal Gangs Blamed for Stoking Northern Ireland Violence,” Laura Noonan, “Criminal Gangs Blamed for Stoking Northern Ireland Violence,” Financial Times, April 14, 2021. , April 14, 2021.
23 Peter Foster and Jim Brunsden, “London and Dublin Call for Calm After Fresh Riots in Northern Ireland,” 23 Peter Foster and Jim Brunsden, “London and Dublin Call for Calm After Fresh Riots in Northern Ireland,” Financial
Times, April 8, 2021; David Young, Rebecca Black, and James Ward, “Stormont Ministers Unite to Condemn Violence , April 8, 2021; David Young, Rebecca Black, and James Ward, “Stormont Ministers Unite to Condemn Violence
and Rioting,” and Rioting,” Belfast Telegraph, April 8, 2021. , April 8, 2021.
24 Shawn Pogatchnik, “Northern Ireland ‘Playing with Matches’ amid Brexit Trade Deal Tensions,” 24 Shawn Pogatchnik, “Northern Ireland ‘Playing with Matches’ amid Brexit Trade Deal Tensions,” Politico, April 7, , April 7,
2021; Stephen Castle, “Northern Ireland Sees Spasm of Violence as Old Tensions Resurface,” 2021; Stephen Castle, “Northern Ireland Sees Spasm of Violence as Old Tensions Resurface,” New York Times, April , April
8, 2021; Dan Haverty, “How Brexit Lit the Fuse in Northern Ireland,” 8, 2021; Dan Haverty, “How Brexit Lit the Fuse in Northern Ireland,” Foreign Policy, April 13, 2021. , April 13, 2021.
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~~Sectarian Divisions~~
~~Observers suggest that Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society, with Protestant and~~
~~Catholic communities existing largely in parallel. Schools and housing developments in Northern~~
~~Ireland remain mostly single-identity communities. In some areas~~the DUP and other stakeholders, the Northern Ireland Assembly passed legislation to increase the number of integrated school places and establish targets for the number of children educated in integrated schools.25 In some areas in Northern Ireland, , peace walls separate Protestant separate Protestant
and Catholic neighborhoods.and Catholic neighborhoods.25
Estimates of the number of peace walls vary depending on the definition. Northern Ireland’s Estimates of the number of peace walls vary depending on the definition. Northern Ireland’s
Department of Justice and Housing Executive have responsibility for the majority of peace walls, Department of Justice and Housing Executive have responsibility for the majority of peace walls,
but when other types of structures are included—such as fences, gates, and closed roads—the but when other types of structures are included—such as fences, gates, and closed roads—the
number of physical barriers separating Protestant and Catholic communities is estimated at over number of physical barriers separating Protestant and Catholic communities is estimated at over
100. Northern Ireland’s Executive has been working to remove the peace walls since 2013, but 100. Northern Ireland’s Executive has been working to remove the peace walls since 2013, but
surveys of public attitudes indicate continued support for the walls in many communities. One surveys of public attitudes indicate continued support for the walls in many communities. One
poll conducted in 2019 found that 42% of those interviewed wanted the walls to remain in place poll conducted in 2019 found that 42% of those interviewed wanted the walls to remain in place
for reasons of safety and security. The same survey also found that 37% of respondents had never for reasons of safety and security. The same survey also found that 37% of respondents had never
interacted with anyone from the community living on the other side of the nearest peace wall.26 interacted with anyone from the community living on the other side of the nearest peace wall.26
Another 2019 survey, however, suggests a gradual attitudinal change in support of removing the Another 2019 survey, however, suggests a gradual attitudinal change in support of removing the
peace walls and other barriers, especially among younger people.27 peace walls and other barriers, especially among younger people.27
Sectarian divisions are particularly apparent during the annual summer Sectarian divisions are particularly apparent during the annual summer marching season, when , when
many unionist cultural and religious organizations hold parades commemorating Protestant many unionist cultural and religious organizations hold parades commemorating Protestant
history. Although the vast majority of these annual parades are not contentious, some are held history. Although the vast majority of these annual parades are not contentious, some are held
through or close to areas populated mainly by Catholics (some of whom perceive such unionist through or close to areas populated mainly by Catholics (some of whom perceive such unionist
parades as triumphalist and intimidating). During the Troubles, the marching season often parades as triumphalist and intimidating). During the Troubles, the marching season often
provoked fierce violence. Many Protestant organizations view the existing Parades Commission, provoked fierce violence. Many Protestant organizations view the existing Parades Commission,
which arbitrates disputes over parade routes, as largely biased in favor of Catholics and have which arbitrates disputes over parade routes, as largely biased in favor of Catholics and have
repeatedly argued for abolishing the commission.28 Efforts over the years to address the repeatedly argued for abolishing the commission.28 Efforts over the years to address the
contentious issue of parading and related protests have stalled repeatedly. Following the riots in contentious issue of parading and related protests have stalled repeatedly. Following the riots in
spring 2021 and in light of ongoing tensions over Brexit, many officials and analysts worried the spring 2021 and in light of ongoing tensions over Brexit, many officials and analysts worried the
2021 marching season could see increased violence. Parades and related events during the 2021 2021 marching season could see increased violence. Parades and related events during the 2021
marching season, however, passed without any significant incidents.29 marching season, however, passed without any significant incidents.29
Sectarian tensions also are evident in relation to the use of flags and emblems in Northern Ireland. Sectarian tensions also are evident in relation to the use of flags and emblems in Northern Ireland.
A series of protests in late 2012 and early 2013 following a decision to fly the union (UK) flag at A series of protests in late 2012 and early 2013 following a decision to fly the union (UK) flag at
Belfast City Hall only on designated days (rather than year-round) highlighted frictions on such Belfast City Hall only on designated days (rather than year-round) highlighted frictions on such
issues between the unionist and nationalist communities. The protests, mostly by unionists and issues between the unionist and nationalist communities. The protests, mostly by unionists and
loyalists, occurred in Belfast and elsewhere in Northern Ireland, and some turned violent. loyalists, occurred in Belfast and elsewhere in Northern Ireland, and some turned violent.

~~25 Paul Nolan, “Two Tribes: A Divided Northern Ireland,” Irish Times, April 1, 2017; “Will NI’s Peace Walls Come~~
~~Down by 2023 to Meet 10-Year Target?,” BBC News, May 3, 2018~~Northern Ireland leaders on both sides of the sectarian divide received death threats, and some political party offices were vandalized.30 25 Paul Nolan, “Two Tribes: A Divided Northern Ireland,” Irish Times, April 1, 2017; Robbie Meredith, “Integrated ; Robbie Meredith, “Integrated Education: Stormont Passes Bill Despite DUP Opposition,” BBC News, March 9, 2022~~Education: DUP~~
~~MLA Says All Schools Should Be Integrated,” BBC News, November 25, 2020~~. .
26 Northern Ireland Department of Justice, 26 Northern Ireland Department of Justice, Public Attitudes to Peace Walls 2019 Findings, June 2020, at , June 2020, at
https://www.justice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/justice/public-attitudes-to-peace-walls-2019-https://www.justice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/justice/public-attitudes-to-peace-walls-2019-
findings.PDF. findings.PDF.
27 International Fund for Ireland, 27 International Fund for Ireland, Peace Walls Programme Attitudinal Survey: Summary of Results, November 2019, at , November 2019, at
https://www.internationalfundforireland.com/images/documents/2019_Community_Attitudes_to_Peace_Walls_Survey/https://www.internationalfundforireland.com/images/documents/2019_Community_Attitudes_to_Peace_Walls_Survey/
Final_IFI_Report_2019.pdf. Final_IFI_Report_2019.pdf.
28 The Parades Commission was established in 1998 as an independent body to rule on disputed parades. 28 The Parades Commission was established in 1998 as an independent body to rule on disputed parades.
29 Julian O’Neill, “Twelfth Parades Across Northern Ireland Passed Without Incident,” BBC News, July 12, 2021; 29 Julian O’Neill, “Twelfth Parades Across Northern Ireland Passed Without Incident,” BBC News, July 12, 2021;
Megan Specia, “Northern Ireland’s Marching Season Begins in a Fraught Year for Unionists,” Megan Specia, “Northern Ireland’s Marching Season Begins in a Fraught Year for Unionists,” New York Times, July , July
13, 2021. 13, 2021.
30 “Q&A: Northern Ireland Flag Protests,” BBC News, December 8, 2012. Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
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~~Northern Ireland leaders on both sides of the sectarian divide received death threats, and some~~
~~political party offices were vandalized.30~~
In June 2016, a Commission on Flags, Identity, Culture, and Tradition was established to assess In June 2016, a Commission on Flags, Identity, Culture, and Tradition was established to assess
these contentious issues and to recommend policies and solutions to help address them. This these contentious issues and to recommend policies and solutions to help address them. This
commission consisted of 15 members, with 7 appointed by Northern Ireland’s political parties commission consisted of 15 members, with 7 appointed by Northern Ireland’s political parties
and 8 drawn from outside the government. The commission’s work was delayed by the size of its and 8 drawn from outside the government. The commission’s work was delayed by the size of its
task and the collapse of the devolved government between 2017 and 2020. The commission task and the collapse of the devolved government between 2017 and 2020. The commission
delivered its report to the first minister and deputy first minister in July 2020; the report was delivered its report to the first minister and deputy first minister in July 2020; the report was
published in December 2021. The report contains over 40 recommendations, but the commission published in December 2021. The report contains over 40 recommendations, but the commission
was unable to reach agreement on some key issues related to flags and memorials, among others. was unable to reach agreement on some key issues related to flags and memorials, among others.
Critics question the report’s value given the delays, costs (£800,000, or about $1.1 million), and Critics question the report’s value given the delays, costs (£800,000, or about $1.1 million), and
lack of an accompanying implementation plan.31 lack of an accompanying implementation plan.31
Dealing with the Past
Fully addressing the legacy of violence in Northern Ireland remains controversial. The Good Fully addressing the legacy of violence in Northern Ireland remains controversial. The Good
Friday Agreement asserted that, “it is essential to acknowledge and address the suffering of the Friday Agreement asserted that, “it is essential to acknowledge and address the suffering of the
victims of violence as a necessary element of reconciliation.” In 2008, the Northern Ireland victims of violence as a necessary element of reconciliation.” In 2008, the Northern Ireland
Assembly established a Commission for Victims and Survivors aimed at supporting victims and Assembly established a Commission for Victims and Survivors aimed at supporting victims and
their families. Several legal processes for examining crimes stemming from the Troubles also their families. Several legal processes for examining crimes stemming from the Troubles also
exist. These include investigations into deaths related to the conflict by a dedicated unit within the exist. These include investigations into deaths related to the conflict by a dedicated unit within the
PSNI; investigations by the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland (PONI) of historical cases PSNI; investigations by the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland (PONI) of historical cases
involving allegations of police misconduct; and public inquiries, such as the Saville inquiry involving allegations of police misconduct; and public inquiries, such as the Saville inquiry
(concluded in 2010) into the January 1972 Bloody Sunday incident in which the British Army (concluded in 2010) into the January 1972 Bloody Sunday incident in which the British Army
shot 28 people, resulting in 14 deaths.32 shot 28 people, resulting in 14 deaths.32
Critics argue these various legal processes represent a piecemeal approach and give some deaths Critics argue these various legal processes represent a piecemeal approach and give some deaths
or incidents priority over others. Many observers note that progress in investigations has been or incidents priority over others. Many observers note that progress in investigations has been
slow. Nearly 1,200 conflict-related cases are awaiting investigation by the PSNI, and about 400 slow. Nearly 1,200 conflict-related cases are awaiting investigation by the PSNI, and about 400
by the PONI.33 According to the UK government, between 2015 and 2021, historical reviews and by the PONI.33 According to the UK government, between 2015 and 2021, historical reviews and
investigations resulted in prosecutions of nine people for Troubles-related deaths.34 Others point investigations resulted in prosecutions of nine people for Troubles-related deaths.34 Others point
out the expense and time involved with some of these processes; for example, the Bloody Sunday out the expense and time involved with some of these processes; for example, the Bloody Sunday
inquiry cost £195 million (more than $300 million) and took 12 years to complete.35 Reaching inquiry cost £195 million (more than $300 million) and took 12 years to complete.35 Reaching
consensus on the best way to address Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence has been difficult, in consensus on the best way to address Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence has been difficult, in

~~30 “Q&A: Northern Ireland Flag Protests,” BBC News, December 8, 2012.~~
large part because many unionists and nationalists continue to view the conflict differently and retain competing narratives. 31 Jayne McCormack, “Flags Report: Stormont Publishes £800k Report Without Action Plan,” BBC News, December 31 Jayne McCormack, “Flags Report: Stormont Publishes £800k Report Without Action Plan,” BBC News, December
1, 2021. For the text of the report, see Northern Ireland Executive Office, 1, 2021. For the text of the report, see Northern Ireland Executive Office, Commission on Flags, Identity, Culture and
Tradition – Final Report, December 1, 2021, at https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/publications/commission-flags-, December 1, 2021, at https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/publications/commission-flags-
identity-culture-and-tradition-final-report. identity-culture-and-tradition-final-report.
32 Thirteen deaths occurred on Bloody Sunday, and another individual wounded on Bloody Sunday died several months 32 Thirteen deaths occurred on Bloody Sunday, and another individual wounded on Bloody Sunday died several months
later. later.
33 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, “Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past,” oral 33 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, “Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past,” oral
statement, UK House of Commons, July 14, 2021, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/secretary-of-state-for-statement, UK House of Commons, July 14, 2021, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/secretary-of-state-for-
northern-ireland-brandon-lewis-mp-oral-statement-wednesday-14th-july-2021; Northern Ireland Assembly Plenary northern-ireland-brandon-lewis-mp-oral-statement-wednesday-14th-july-2021; Northern Ireland Assembly Plenary
Debate, Debate, Official Report, October 18, 2021, pp. 58-75, at http://data.niassembly.gov.uk/HansardXml/plenary-18-10-, October 18, 2021, pp. 58-75, at http://data.niassembly.gov.uk/HansardXml/plenary-18-10-
2021.pdf. 2021.pdf.
34 Government of the UK, Northern Ireland Office, 34 Government of the UK, Northern Ireland Office, Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past, July 14, 2021, at , July 14, 2021, at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-irelands-past, p. 20. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-irelands-past, p. 20.
35 James Clarke, “Was the Bloody Sunday Report Value for Money?,” BBC News, June 14, 2010. 35 James Clarke, “Was the Bloody Sunday Report Value for Money?,” BBC News, June 14, 2010.
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~~large part because many unionists and nationalists continue to view the conflict differently and~~
~~retain competing narratives.~~
~~Several recent events further highlighted questions about dealing with Northern Ireland’s legacy~~
~~of violence and pursuing justice. In May 2021, a coroner’s inquest released its findings into 10~~
~~deaths in August 1971 in the Ballymurphy area of Belfast. The inquest concluded that all 10~~
~~people killed were “entirely innocent” and that 9 of the 10 were killed by the British Army (the~~
~~inquest could not definitively determine who had shot the 10th victim).36 In July 2021, the Belfast~~
~~High Court found that the August 1998 Omagh bombing (in which the dissident Real IRA killed~~
~~29 people) possibly could have been prevented and recommended that both the UK and the Irish~~
~~governments undertake investigations into the pre-attack intelligence related to the bombing. In~~
~~January 2022, PONI released a report on police actions in relation to several loyalist paramilitary~~
~~attacks between 1989 and 1993 (in which 19 people died); the report found “collusive behaviors”~~
~~by the police and raised “significant concerns” about police conduct at the time.37~~
~~The issue of prosecuting former British soldiers who served in Northern Ireland during the~~
~~Troubles remains contentious. During the 2019 UK general election, Prime Minister Johnson~~
~~pledged to protect veterans from prosecutions related to their past service in Northern Ireland, but~~
~~in April 2021, the then-UK minister for veterans alleged that the government was failing to do so.~~
The issue of prosecuting former British soldiers who served in Northern Ireland during the Troubles remains contentious. UK veterans groups and some Members of Parliament contend that Troubles-related investigations and prosecutions have disproportionately focused on the actions of the armed forces and former police officers. They note that PSNI investigations involving the security forces account for 30% of its legacy case workload but only 10% of the overall deaths during the conflict. During the 2019 UK general election, Prime Minister Johnson pledged to protect veterans from prosecutions related to their past service in Northern Ireland, but in April 2021, the then-UK minister for veterans alleged that the government was failing to do so. Others reject arguments that legacy investigations and prosecutions are predominantly targeting veterans. Between 2011 and 2019, Northern Ireland’s Public Prosecution Service (PPS) undertook prosecutions in eight legacy cases involving republican paramilitaries, four legacy cases involving loyalist paramilitaries, and five cases involving former military personnel.36 At the same time, such prosecutions often face legal hurdles. In 2021, due to inadmissible At the same time, such prosecutions often face legal hurdles. In 2021, due to inadmissible
evidence, prosecutions of several former British soldiers related to shooting incidents in 1972 evidence, prosecutions of several former British soldiers related to shooting incidents in 1972
collapsed (including the prosecution of “Soldier F,” charged with collapsed (including the prosecution of “Soldier F,” charged with ~~2 of the 13 killings on Bloody~~
~~Sunday~~two of the Bloody Sunday killings). Families of Bloody Sunday victims are pursuing legal challenges against the decision to ). Families of Bloody Sunday victims are pursuing legal challenges against the decision to
drop charges against Soldier F, as well as the 2019 decision not to bring charges against other drop charges against Soldier F, as well as the 2019 decision not to bring charges against other
soldiers involved in Bloody Sunday. To date, one prosecution against a former British soldier for soldiers involved in Bloody Sunday. To date, one prosecution against a former British soldier for
offenses related to the Troubles remains activeoffenses related to the Troubles remains active~~; prosecutors~~. Prosecutors are expected to decide in 2022 on are expected to decide in 2022 on
whether to bring charges in whether to bring charges in ~~three other~~11 Troubles-era cases Troubles-era cases ~~involving~~, 3 of which involve former soldiers. former soldiers.3837
Stormont House Agreement Provisions
The 2014 Stormont House Agreement called for establishing four new bodies to address “legacy The 2014 Stormont House Agreement called for establishing four new bodies to address “legacy
issues” (based largely on proposals made during the 2013 Haass initiative): issues” (based largely on proposals made during the 2013 Haass initiative):
  Historical Investigations Unit (HIU). This body would take forward the work This body would take forward the work
of the PSNI and the PONI in investigating outstanding cases related to the of the PSNI and the PONI in investigating outstanding cases related to the
Troubles. The UK government pledged full disclosure to the HIU. Troubles. The UK government pledged full disclosure to the HIU.
  Independent Commission for Information Retrieval (ICIR). The ICIR would The ICIR would
enable victims and survivors to seek and privately receive information about enable victims and survivors to seek and privately receive information about
conflict-related violence. It would be established by the UK and Irish conflict-related violence. It would be established by the UK and Irish
governments but would be separate from the justice systems in each jurisdiction. governments but would be separate from the justice systems in each jurisdiction.
Any information provided to the ICIR would be inadmissible in criminal and Any information provided to the ICIR would be inadmissible in criminal and

~~36 A coroner’s inquest is a fact-finding exercise to determine the circumstances of a death; it is not a trial and the~~
~~coroner does not decide questions of criminal or civil liability. For more information on the Ballymurphy inquest, see~~
~~Colm Kelpie, “Ballymurphy Inquest: Coroner Finds 10 Victims Were Innocent,” BBC News, May 11, 2021.~~
~~37 Rory Carroll, “Omagh Bombing Could Have Been Prevented, Says High Court Judge,” Guardian, July 23, 2021;~~
~~Freya McClements, “Ombudsman Finds ‘Collusive Behaviors’ by Police in North in 19 Murders by Loyalists,”~~ ~~Irish~~
~~Times, January 14, 2022.~~
~~38 “Johnny Mercer: Tory MP Resigns as Defense Minister,” BBC News, April 20, 2021;~~civil proceedings, but individuals who provided information would not be immune to prosecution should evidentiary requirements be met by other means.  Oral History Archive. This archive would provide a central place for people from all backgrounds to share experiences and narratives related to the Troubles.  Implementation and Reconciliation Group. This body would oversee work on themes, archives, and information recovery in an effort to promote reconciliation and reduce sectarianism. 36 Dan Sabbagh, “Defence Minister Johnny Mercer Dismissed from Government,” The Guardian, April 20, 2021; Edward Burke, “The Trouble with Northern Ireland Legacy Cases,” RUSI, April 22, 2021; Claire Mills, Investigation of Former Armed Forces Personnel Who Served in Northern Ireland, UK House of Commons Library, July 27, 2021. 37 David Young, “Trial of British David Young, “Trial of British
Army Veterans Accused of Official IRA Leader’s Murder Collapses,” Army Veterans Accused of Official IRA Leader’s Murder Collapses,” Irish Times, May 4, 2021; Mike McBride, , May 4, 2021; Mike McBride,
“Prosecutors Drop Troubles Cases Against Ex-Soldiers,” BBC News, July 2, 2021; Julian O’Neill, “Troubles Legacy “Prosecutors Drop Troubles Cases Against Ex-Soldiers,” BBC News, July 2, 2021; Julian O’Neill, “Troubles Legacy
Cases Set to Dominate Headlines Again in 2022,” BBC News, January 2, 2022. Cases Set to Dominate Headlines Again in 2022,” BBC News, January 2, 2022.
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~~civil proceedings, but individuals who provided information would not be~~
~~immune to prosecution should evidentiary requirements be met by other means.~~
~~ Oral History Archive. This archive would provide a central place for people~~
~~from all backgrounds to share experiences and narratives related to the Troubles.~~
~~ Implementation and Reconciliation Group. This body would oversee work on~~
~~themes, archives, and information recovery in an effort to promote reconciliation~~
~~and reduce sectarianism.~~
Efforts to establish these four new legacy institutions in UK law, however, largely stalled due to Efforts to establish these four new legacy institutions in UK law, however, largely stalled due to
divisions between the UK government, on the one hand, and some nationalists and human rights divisions between the UK government, on the one hand, and some nationalists and human rights
advocates, on the other, over proposed “national security caveats” related to the disclosure of advocates, on the other, over proposed “national security caveats” related to the disclosure of
certain information. Victims groups and nationalists were concerned that “national security” certain information. Victims groups and nationalists were concerned that “national security”
could be used to cover up criminal wrongdoing by state agents. At the same time, unionists could be used to cover up criminal wrongdoing by state agents. At the same time, unionists
voiced concern that the proposed HIU could unfairly target former soldiers and police officers. voiced concern that the proposed HIU could unfairly target former soldiers and police officers.
Successive government crises and the stalemate in reestablishing the devolved government Successive government crises and the stalemate in reestablishing the devolved government
between 2017 and early 2020 also impeded work on implementing these mechanisms to address between 2017 and early 2020 also impeded work on implementing these mechanisms to address
Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence.Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence.3938
New UK Government Proposals
In the January 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal to reestablish the devolved government, In the January 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal to reestablish the devolved government,
the UK government pledged to introduce legislation in the UK Parliament to set up the legacy the UK government pledged to introduce legislation in the UK Parliament to set up the legacy
bodies proposed in the 2014 Stormont House Agreement. In March 2020, the UK government bodies proposed in the 2014 Stormont House Agreement. In March 2020, the UK government
outlined its intentions for the new legacy mechanisms. Instead of the two separate HIU and ICIR outlined its intentions for the new legacy mechanisms. Instead of the two separate HIU and ICIR
bodies agreed to in the Stormont House Agreement, the UK government said it would propose a bodies agreed to in the Stormont House Agreement, the UK government said it would propose a
single “independent body” to “oversee and manage both the information recovery and single “independent body” to “oversee and manage both the information recovery and
investigative aspects of the legacy system” in order to ensure the investigations were “effective investigative aspects of the legacy system” in order to ensure the investigations were “effective
and thorough, but quick.”and thorough, but quick.”4039
UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis asserted that the UK government UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis asserted that the UK government
would “remain true to the principles of the Stormont House Agreement” but that the proposed would “remain true to the principles of the Stormont House Agreement” but that the proposed
changes would seek to put “greater emphasis on gathering information for families” and “moving changes would seek to put “greater emphasis on gathering information for families” and “moving
at a faster pace to retrieve knowledge before it is lost” to the passage of time.at a faster pace to retrieve knowledge before it is lost” to the passage of time.4140 The UK’s March The UK’s March
2020 plan was widely rejected by Sinn Fein, other nationalists, and many human rights 2020 plan was widely rejected by Sinn Fein, other nationalists, and many human rights
organizations as short-changing victims and families, as it would essentially curtail investigations organizations as short-changing victims and families, as it would essentially curtail investigations
and thus impede due process and the delivery of justice. The Irish government and some members and thus impede due process and the delivery of justice. The Irish government and some members
of the UK Parliament also expressed concerns about the proposed changes to the Stormont House of the UK Parliament also expressed concerns about the proposed changes to the Stormont House
Agreement’s legacy mechanisms.Agreement’s legacy mechanisms.42

3941 In July 2021, the UK government announced its intent to bring forward legislation that essentially would end all Troubles-related prosecutions, inquests, and civil actions against former soldiers, security forces, and paramilitaries.42 The UK government asserted it would introduce a statute of limitations “to apply equally to all Troubles-related incidents, bringing an immediate end to the divisive cycle of criminal investigations and prosecutions, which is not working for anyone and has kept Northern Ireland hamstrung by its past.” Similar to its initial March 2020 proposal, the 38 Anne Cadwallader, “Bereaved Families Have a Right to the Truth,” Anne Cadwallader, “Bereaved Families Have a Right to the Truth,” Irish Times, December 31, 2015; “Villiers Meets , December 31, 2015; “Villiers Meets
U.S. Lawyers in Bid to Resolve National Security Veto Dispute,” U.S. Lawyers in Bid to Resolve National Security Veto Dispute,” Belfast Telegraph, February 17, 2016; Gareth , February 17, 2016; Gareth
Gordon, “Troubles Legacy Consultation Launched by Government,” BBC News, May 11, 2018. Gordon, “Troubles Legacy Consultation Launched by Government,” BBC News, May 11, 2018.
4039 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Statement to the UK Parliament, “Addressing Northern Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Statement to the UK Parliament, “Addressing Northern
Ireland Legacy Issues,” March 18, 2020, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2020-Ireland Legacy Issues,” March 18, 2020, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2020-
03-18/HCWS168. 03-18/HCWS168.
4140 Ibid. Also see Government of the UK, “UK Government Sets Out Way Forward on the Legacy of the Past in Ibid. Also see Government of the UK, “UK Government Sets Out Way Forward on the Legacy of the Past in
Northern Ireland,” press release March 18, 2020. Northern Ireland,” press release March 18, 2020.
4241 Julian O’Neill, “New Plan for NI Troubles Cases to ‘Limit’ Investigations,” BBC News, March 18, 2020; Julian O’Neill, “New Plan for NI Troubles Cases to ‘Limit’ Investigations,” BBC News, March 18, 2020;
Government of Ireland, “Statement by Tanaiste on UK Government Legacy Announcement,” press release, March 18, Government of Ireland, “Statement by Tanaiste on UK Government Legacy Announcement,” press release, March 18,
2020; Rory Carroll, “Troubles Legacy: MPs Condemn Government Plan to Close Cases,” 2020; Rory Carroll, “Troubles Legacy: MPs Condemn Government Plan to Close Cases,” Guardian, October 26, 2020. , October 26, 2020.
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~~In July 2021, the UK government announced its intent to bring forward legislation that essentially~~
~~would end all Troubles-related prosecutions, inquests, and civil actions against former soldiers,~~
~~security forces, and paramilitaries. The UK government asserted it would introduce a statute of~~
~~limitations “to apply equally to all Troubles-related incidents, bringing an immediate end to the~~
~~divisive cycle of criminal investigations and prosecutions, which is not working for anyone and~~
~~has kept Northern Ireland hamstrung by its past.”43 Similar to its initial March 2020 proposal, the~~
42 Government of the UK, Northern Ireland Office, Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past, July 14, 2021, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-irelands-past. Congressional Research Service 15 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests UK government confirmed it would establish a single “Information Recovery Body” (rather than UK government confirmed it would establish a single “Information Recovery Body” (rather than
the HIU and ICIR called for in the Stormont House Agreement). This body would be tasked with the HIU and ICIR called for in the Stormont House Agreement). This body would be tasked with
investigating deaths or serious injuries for the purpose of “genuine and robust information investigating deaths or serious injuries for the purpose of “genuine and robust information
recovery, rather than to create a file for prosecution.” The 2021 proposal also included plans to recovery, rather than to create a file for prosecution.” The 2021 proposal also included plans to
establish a “major oral history initiative” and asserted that the government would maintain “many establish a “major oral history initiative” and asserted that the government would maintain “many
of the vital aspects proposed for the Implementation and Reconciliation Group.”of the vital aspects proposed for the Implementation and Reconciliation Group.”4443
In announcing these new legacy plans, including the statute of limitations, Prime Minister In announcing these new legacy plans, including the statute of limitations, Prime Minister
Johnson asserted that the government’s proposals would allow Northern Ireland to “draw a line Johnson asserted that the government’s proposals would allow Northern Ireland to “draw a line
under the Troubles.”under the Troubles.”4544 Secretary of State Lewis acknowledged that, “We know that the prospect Secretary of State Lewis acknowledged that, “We know that the prospect
of the end of criminal prosecutions will be difficult for some to accept, and this is not a position of the end of criminal prosecutions will be difficult for some to accept, and this is not a position
that we take lightly,” but argued that the focus on information recovery—for as many families that we take lightly,” but argued that the focus on information recovery—for as many families
and victims as possible—would be more effective than current litigation processes and “the best and victims as possible—would be more effective than current litigation processes and “the best
way to help Northern Ireland move further along the road to reconciliation.”way to help Northern Ireland move further along the road to reconciliation.”45 Secretary of State Lewis also asserted that this approach would “deliver on our commitment to veterans who served in Northern Ireland,” providing “certainty” for former soldiers and police officers, “many of whom remain fearful of the prospect of being the subject of investigations ... even though the vast majority acted in accordance with the law, and often at great personal risk.”46 46
The UK’s 2021 proposals have been heavily criticized by all main political parties in Northern The UK’s 2021 proposals have been heavily criticized by all main political parties in Northern
Ireland. Nationalists contend that ending prosecutions and inquests would allow the UK Ireland. Nationalists contend that ending prosecutions and inquests would allow the UK
government to cover up the truth about the state’s actions during the Troubles, and unionists government to cover up the truth about the state’s actions during the Troubles, and unionists
object to what they view as establishing “moral equivalency” between the actions of soldiers and object to what they view as establishing “moral equivalency” between the actions of soldiers and
paramilitaries with a blanket statute of limitations. The Irish government, some Members of the paramilitaries with a blanket statute of limitations. The Irish government, some Members of the
UK UK ~~parliament~~Parliament, and many human rights and victims groups have expressed serious concerns as , and many human rights and victims groups have expressed serious concerns as
well, including with respect to the planned changes to the legacy bodies envisioned by the well, including with respect to the planned changes to the legacy bodies envisioned by the
Stormont House Agreement. On July 20, 2021, the Northern Ireland Assembly passed a motion Stormont House Agreement. On July 20, 2021, the Northern Ireland Assembly passed a motion
(without dissent) opposing the UK government’s new legacy plans.47 The UK government has not (without dissent) opposing the UK government’s new legacy plans.47 The UK government has not
yet formally introduced legislation in Parliament to enact its legacy proposals. yet formally introduced legislation in Parliament to enact its legacy proposals.
Remaining Paramilitary Issues and Dissident Activity
Paramilitary Concerns
Experts contend the major republican and loyalist paramilitary organizations active during the Experts contend the major republican and loyalist paramilitary organizations active during the
Troubles are now committed to the political process and remain on cease-fire. However, the Troubles are now committed to the political process and remain on cease-fire. However, the
apparent continued existence of some groups and their engagement in criminality worries many apparent continued existence of some groups and their engagement in criminality worries many

~~43 Government of the UK, Northern Ireland Office, Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past, July 14, 2021,~~
~~https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-irelands-past.~~
~~44 Ibid.~~
45in both the unionist and the nationalist communities. In response to heightened concerns about paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland in 2015, the UK government commissioned a study on 43 Ibid. 44 As quoted in, “Plan to End All NI Troubles Prosecutions Confirmed,” BBC News, July 14, 2021. As quoted in, “Plan to End All NI Troubles Prosecutions Confirmed,” BBC News, July 14, 2021.
4645 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, “Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past,” oral Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, “Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past,” oral
~~Statement~~statement, UK House of Commons, July 14, 2021, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/secretary-of-state-for-, UK House of Commons, July 14, 2021, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/secretary-of-state-for-
northern-ireland-brandon-lewis-mp-oral-statement-wednesday-14th-july-2021. northern-ireland-brandon-lewis-mp-oral-statement-wednesday-14th-july-2021.
46 Ibid. 47 BBC News, “Troubles: Political Reaction to PM’s Plan to End Prosecutions,” July 14, 2021; Irish Department of 47 BBC News, “Troubles: Political Reaction to PM’s Plan to End Prosecutions,” July 14, 2021; Irish Department of
Foreign Affairs, “Statement by Minister for Foreign Affairs on UK Government Legacy Proposals,” press release, July Foreign Affairs, “Statement by Minister for Foreign Affairs on UK Government Legacy Proposals,” press release, July
14, 2021; Eimear McGovern, “NI Assembly Rejects UK Government Troubles Amnesty Proposals,” 14, 2021; Eimear McGovern, “NI Assembly Rejects UK Government Troubles Amnesty Proposals,” Belfast
Telegraph, July 20, 2021; BBC News, “Victims’ Groups Voice Opposition to Troubles Plans,” August 30, 2021. , July 20, 2021; BBC News, “Victims’ Groups Voice Opposition to Troubles Plans,” August 30, 2021.
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~~in both the unionist and the nationalist communities. In response to heightened concerns about~~
~~paramilitary activity in Northern Ireland in 2015, the UK government commissioned a study on~~
the status of republican and loyalist paramilitary groups.48 This review found that all the main the status of republican and loyalist paramilitary groups.48 This review found that all the main
paramilitary groups operating during the Troubles still exist, but they are on cease-fire and the paramilitary groups operating during the Troubles still exist, but they are on cease-fire and the
leadership of each group, “to different degrees,” is “committed to peaceful means to achieve their leadership of each group, “to different degrees,” is “committed to peaceful means to achieve their
political objectives.” At the same time, the review concluded that individual members of political objectives.” At the same time, the review concluded that individual members of
paramilitary groups still represent a threat to national security, including through their paramilitary groups still represent a threat to national security, including through their
involvement in organized crime, and “there is regular unsanctioned activity including behavior in involvement in organized crime, and “there is regular unsanctioned activity including behavior in
direct contravention of leadership instruction.”49 direct contravention of leadership instruction.”49
The 2015 Fresh Start Agreement sought to address concerns about the main paramilitary groups The 2015 Fresh Start Agreement sought to address concerns about the main paramilitary groups
in Northern Ireland. Among other measures, it enumerated a set of principles that call upon in Northern Ireland. Among other measures, it enumerated a set of principles that call upon
members of the Assembly and the Executive to work toward disbanding all paramilitary members of the Assembly and the Executive to work toward disbanding all paramilitary
organizations and to take no instructions from such groups. The agreement also called for organizations and to take no instructions from such groups. The agreement also called for
establishing a new, four-member international body to monitor paramilitary activity and to report establishing a new, four-member international body to monitor paramilitary activity and to report
annually on progress toward ending such activity. The resulting Independent Reporting annually on progress toward ending such activity. The resulting Independent Reporting
Commission (IRC) began work in 2017; the UK and Irish governments each named one Commission (IRC) began work in 2017; the UK and Irish governments each named one
representative to the IRC, and the Northern Ireland Executive named two.50 representative to the IRC, and the Northern Ireland Executive named two.50
In its fourth annual report, released in December 2021, the IRC states that it remains concerned In its fourth annual report, released in December 2021, the IRC states that it remains concerned
about the risks posed to Northern Ireland society by “the continuing existence of paramilitary about the risks posed to Northern Ireland society by “the continuing existence of paramilitary
structures which can be harnessed for the purposes of violence or the threat of violence.” The IRC structures which can be harnessed for the purposes of violence or the threat of violence.” The IRC
remains supportive of a “twin track” approach that combines policing and criminal justice remains supportive of a “twin track” approach that combines policing and criminal justice
responses with measures to address the underlying socioeconomic challenges facing communities responses with measures to address the underlying socioeconomic challenges facing communities
in which paramilitaries operate. In addition, the IRC emphasized the need for a “group transition in which paramilitaries operate. In addition, the IRC emphasized the need for a “group transition
process” to encourage paramilitary groups to take voluntary action toward disbanding.51 process” to encourage paramilitary groups to take voluntary action toward disbanding.51
Concerns also exist about the degree to which divisions over Brexit could further enhance Concerns also exist about the degree to which divisions over Brexit could further enhance
paramilitary influence, prompt a resurgence in paramilitary activity, and affect the peace process. paramilitary influence, prompt a resurgence in paramilitary activity, and affect the peace process.
In In ~~early~~ March 2021, loyalist paramilitary groups announced they were withdrawing support for March 2021, loyalist paramilitary groups announced they were withdrawing support for
the Good Friday Agreement temporarily due to concerns about the implementation of the post-the Good Friday Agreement temporarily due to concerns about the implementation of the post-
Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, which they view as dividing Northern Ireland Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, which they view as dividing Northern Ireland
from the rest of the UK and threatening the union. Although these loyalist groups remain on from the rest of the UK and threatening the union. Although these loyalist groups remain on
cease-fire, they also warn that the current Brexit-related problems, if not resolved, could lead to cease-fire, they also warn that the current Brexit-related problems, if not resolved, could lead to
the “permanent destruction” of the peace accord (see “Implications of Brexit,” below).52 the “permanent destruction” of the peace accord (see “Implications of Brexit,” below).52

48 The 2015 assessment focused on the following paramilitary groups: the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF); the Red Hand 48 The 2015 assessment focused on the following paramilitary groups: the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF); the Red Hand
Commando (RHC); the Ulster Defense Association (UDA, which also conducted attacks under the name of the Ulster Commando (RHC); the Ulster Defense Association (UDA, which also conducted attacks under the name of the Ulster
Freedom Fighters, or UFF); the South East Antrim (SEA) group of the UDA; Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF); the Irish Freedom Fighters, or UFF); the South East Antrim (SEA) group of the UDA; Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF); the Irish
Republican Army (IRA, also known as the Provisional Irish Republican Army, or PIRA); and the Irish National Republican Army (IRA, also known as the Provisional Irish Republican Army, or PIRA); and the Irish National
Liberation Army (INLA). Liberation Army (INLA).
49 Government of the UK, 49 Government of the UK, Independent Report: Assessment on Paramilitary Groups in Northern Ireland, October 20, , October 20,
2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-on-paramilitary-groups-in-northern-ireland. 2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-on-paramilitary-groups-in-northern-ireland.
50 The UK government chose former U.S. Special Envoy for Northern Ireland Mitchell Reiss as its representative on 50 The UK government chose former U.S. Special Envoy for Northern Ireland Mitchell Reiss as its representative on
the IRC. Reiss served as special envoy in the George W. Bush Administration from 2003 to 2007. the IRC. Reiss served as special envoy in the George W. Bush Administration from 2003 to 2007.
51 51 Independent Reporting Commission Fourth Report, December 7, 2021, at https://www.ircommission.org/news-, December 7, 2021, at https://www.ircommission.org/news-
centre/irc-fourth-report. centre/irc-fourth-report.
52 As quoted in Guy Faulconbridge and Amanda Ferguson, “Northern Irish Loyalist Paramilitaries Withdraw Support 52 As quoted in Guy Faulconbridge and Amanda Ferguson, “Northern Irish Loyalist Paramilitaries Withdraw Support
for 1998 Peace Deal,” Reuters, March 4, 2021. Also see Shawn Pogatchnik, “Who Are the Northern Ireland Loyalists for 1998 Peace Deal,” Reuters, March 4, 2021. Also see Shawn Pogatchnik, “Who Are the Northern Ireland Loyalists
Threatening to Shun Peace Deal over Brexit Fears?,” Threatening to Shun Peace Deal over Brexit Fears?,” Politico, March 5, 2021. , March 5, 2021.
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The Dissident Threat
Security assessments indicate that dissident republican and loyalist groups not on cease-fire and Security assessments indicate that dissident republican and loyalist groups not on cease-fire and
opposed to the 1998 peace accord continue to present serious threats. The aforementioned 2015 opposed to the 1998 peace accord continue to present serious threats. The aforementioned 2015
review of paramilitary groups maintained that the most significant terrorist threat in Northern review of paramilitary groups maintained that the most significant terrorist threat in Northern
Ireland was posed not by the groups evaluated in that report but rather by dissident republicans. Ireland was posed not by the groups evaluated in that report but rather by dissident republicans.
The review described dissident loyalist groups as posing another, albeit “smaller,” threat. The review described dissident loyalist groups as posing another, albeit “smaller,” threat.
At the same time, experts note that dissident groups do not have the same capacity to mount a At the same time, experts note that dissident groups do not have the same capacity to mount a
sustained terror campaign as the IRA did between the 1970s and the 1990s. Most of the dissident sustained terror campaign as the IRA did between the 1970s and the 1990s. Most of the dissident
republican groups are small in comparison to the IRA during the height of the Troubles.53 republican groups are small in comparison to the IRA during the height of the Troubles.53
According to UK security services, there are currently four main dissident republican groups: the According to UK security services, there are currently four main dissident republican groups: the
Continuity IRA (CIRA); Óglaigh na hÉireann (ÓNH); Arm na Poblacht (ANP), and the New IRA Continuity IRA (CIRA); Óglaigh na hÉireann (ÓNH); Arm na Poblacht (ANP), and the New IRA
(which reportedly was formed in 2012). These groups have sought to target police officers, prison (which reportedly was formed in 2012). These groups have sought to target police officers, prison
officers, and other members of the security services in particular. Between 2009 and 2017, officers, and other members of the security services in particular. Between 2009 and 2017,
dissident republicans were responsible for the deaths of two PSNI officers, two British soldiers, dissident republicans were responsible for the deaths of two PSNI officers, two British soldiers,
and two prison officers.54 and two prison officers.54
In January 2018, ÓNH declared itself on cease-fire, although a small splinter group formed in In January 2018, ÓNH declared itself on cease-fire, although a small splinter group formed in
opposition to the cease-fire. The other groups remain active, and authorities warn the threat posed opposition to the cease-fire. The other groups remain active, and authorities warn the threat posed
by the New IRA in particular is severe. Police suspect the New IRA was responsible for a January by the New IRA in particular is severe. Police suspect the New IRA was responsible for a January
2019 car bomb that exploded in Londonderry. The New IRA also claimed responsibility for the 2019 car bomb that exploded in Londonderry. The New IRA also claimed responsibility for the
April 2019 death of journalist Lyra McKee, who was shot while covering riots in Londonderry.55 April 2019 death of journalist Lyra McKee, who was shot while covering riots in Londonderry.55
Security services report a “growing sophistication” in dissident republican explosive devices and Security services report a “growing sophistication” in dissident republican explosive devices and
that the New IRA has attempted to obtain weapons overseas.56 that the New IRA has attempted to obtain weapons overseas.56
Economic Development and Equal Opportunity
Many assert that one of the best ways to ensure a lasting peace in Northern Ireland and deny Many assert that one of the best ways to ensure a lasting peace in Northern Ireland and deny
dissident groups new recruits is to promote continued economic development and equal dissident groups new recruits is to promote continued economic development and equal
opportunity for Catholics and Protestants. Northern Ireland’s economy has made considerable opportunity for Catholics and Protestants. Northern Ireland’s economy has made considerable
advances since the 1990s. Between 1997 and 2007, Northern Ireland’s economy grew an average advances since the 1990s. Between 1997 and 2007, Northern Ireland’s economy grew an average
of 5.6% annually (marginally above the UK average of 5.4%). Unemployment decreased from of 5.6% annually (marginally above the UK average of 5.4%). Unemployment decreased from
over 17% in the 1980s to 4.3% by 2007.57 The 2008-2009 global recession affected the region, over 17% in the 1980s to 4.3% by 2007.57 The 2008-2009 global recession affected the region,
however, and economic recovery was slow and uneven over much of the last decade. however, and economic recovery was slow and uneven over much of the last decade.
The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on social and business activity affected The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on social and business activity affected
Northern Ireland’s economy, but the speed of economic recovery has been faster than expected Northern Ireland’s economy, but the speed of economic recovery has been faster than expected
initially. During the height of the first COVID-19 lockdown in the second quarter of 2020, initially. During the height of the first COVID-19 lockdown in the second quarter of 2020,

53 David McKittrick, “Northern Ireland: The Peace Process and the Dissident Menace,” 53 David McKittrick, “Northern Ireland: The Peace Process and the Dissident Menace,” The Independent, February 18, , February 18,
2014; Richard English, “Why Republican Dissidents Have Not—And Will Not—Go Away,” 2014; Richard English, “Why Republican Dissidents Have Not—And Will Not—Go Away,” Irish Times, July 19, , July 19,
2017. 2017.
54 MI5, “Northern Ireland,” at https://www.mi5.gov.uk/northern-ireland. 54 MI5, “Northern Ireland,” at https://www.mi5.gov.uk/northern-ireland.
55 The New IRA issued an apology for McKee’s death, asserting that it had intended to shoot a police officer during the 55 The New IRA issued an apology for McKee’s death, asserting that it had intended to shoot a police officer during the
riots, but hit McKee by accident. riots, but hit McKee by accident.
56 Naomi O’Leary, “Northern Ireland Bomb Is a Warning We Can’t Ignore,” 56 Naomi O’Leary, “Northern Ireland Bomb Is a Warning We Can’t Ignore,” Politico, January 22, 2019; Julian O’Neill, , January 22, 2019; Julian O’Neill,
“Q&A: Why Is Dissident Republican Activity on the Rise?,” BBC News, September 15, 2019; “Security Report Warns “Q&A: Why Is Dissident Republican Activity on the Rise?,” BBC News, September 15, 2019; “Security Report Warns
of Dissidents’ Growing Sophistication,” BBC News, April 30, 2020; Julian O’Neill, “New IRA ‘Still Dangerous’ After of Dissidents’ Growing Sophistication,” BBC News, April 30, 2020; Julian O’Neill, “New IRA ‘Still Dangerous’ After
MI5 and PSNI’s Operation Arbacia,” BBC News, September 30, 2020. MI5 and PSNI’s Operation Arbacia,” BBC News, September 30, 2020.
57 Orla Ryan, “Northern Ireland’s Economic Fears,” BBC News, June 22, 2001; Northern Ireland Executive Economic 57 Orla Ryan, “Northern Ireland’s Economic Fears,” BBC News, June 22, 2001; Northern Ireland Executive Economic
Strategy, Strategy, Consultation on Priorities for Sustainable Growth and Prosperity, January 2011. , January 2011.
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Northern Ireland’s economic output fell by 13.3%. It rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 to Northern Ireland’s economic output fell by 13.3%. It rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 to
15.1% growth and increased by 4.6% in real terms over the year to September 2021. Northern 15.1% growth and increased by 4.6% in real terms over the year to September 2021. Northern
Ireland’s unemployment rate for Ireland’s unemployment rate for ~~August-October~~October-December 2021 was 2021 was ~~3.6~~2.7%, lower than the UK average %, lower than the UK average
unemployment rate of 4.unemployment rate of 4.21%.58 Both the UK government and the Northern Ireland Executive %.58 Both the UK government and the Northern Ireland Executive
implemented a range of measures to mitigate COVID-19’s adverse economic effects. These implemented a range of measures to mitigate COVID-19’s adverse economic effects. These
measures included financial support to enable businesses to retain workers, assistance for the self-measures included financial support to enable businesses to retain workers, assistance for the self-
employed, government-backed loans for businesses, and additional funding for public services.59 employed, government-backed loans for businesses, and additional funding for public services.59
Some long-standing economic difficulties and disparities persist in Northern Ireland. Income Some long-standing economic difficulties and disparities persist in Northern Ireland. Income
levels and living standards in Northern Ireland remain below the UK average. Of the UK’s 12 levels and living standards in Northern Ireland remain below the UK average. Of the UK’s 12
economic regions, Northern Ireland had the third-lowest gross domestic product per capita in economic regions, Northern Ireland had the third-lowest gross domestic product per capita in
2019 (£25,656, or about $35,035), below the UK’s average (£33,151, or about $45,270).60 2019 (£25,656, or about $35,035), below the UK’s average (£33,151, or about $45,270).60
Northern Ireland has both a high rate of economic inactivity (27%) and a high proportion of Northern Ireland has both a high rate of economic inactivity (27%) and a high proportion of
working-age individuals with no formal qualifications. Studies indicate the historically poorest working-age individuals with no formal qualifications. Studies indicate the historically poorest
areas in Northern Ireland remain so and note that many of these bore the brunt of the Troubles. areas in Northern Ireland remain so and note that many of these bore the brunt of the Troubles.
Although many of the areas considered the most deprived are predominantly Catholic, others are Although many of the areas considered the most deprived are predominantly Catholic, others are
predominantly Protestant. Some experts contend the most economically disadvantaged areas in predominantly Protestant. Some experts contend the most economically disadvantaged areas in
Northern Ireland have benefitted the least from the so-called Northern Ireland have benefitted the least from the so-called peace dividend.61 .61
At the same time, Northern Ireland has made strides in promoting equality in its workforce. The At the same time, Northern Ireland has made strides in promoting equality in its workforce. The
gap in economic activity rates between Protestants and Catholics has shrunk considerably since gap in economic activity rates between Protestants and Catholics has shrunk considerably since
1992 (when there was a 10-percentage-point difference) and has largely converged in the last few 1992 (when there was a 10-percentage-point difference) and has largely converged in the last few
years. The most recent data available indicate that in 2017, the economic activity rate was 70% years. The most recent data available indicate that in 2017, the economic activity rate was 70%
for Protestants and 67% for Catholics. In addition, the percentage point gap in unemployment for Protestants and 67% for Catholics. In addition, the percentage point gap in unemployment
rates between the two communities decreased from 9% in 1992 to 0% in 2017.62 rates between the two communities decreased from 9% in 1992 to 0% in 2017.62
Over the past decade, efforts to improve Northern Ireland’s long-term economic performance Over the past decade, efforts to improve Northern Ireland’s long-term economic performance
have sought to promote export-led growth, attract more foreign investment, and decrease have sought to promote export-led growth, attract more foreign investment, and decrease
Northern Ireland’s economic dependency on the public sector by growing the private sector. The Northern Ireland’s economic dependency on the public sector by growing the private sector. The
public sector accounts for about 28% of total employment in the region.63 In February 2021, the public sector accounts for about 28% of total employment in the region.63 In February 2021, the
Northern Ireland Executive proposed a £290 million (about $402 million) COVID-19 economic Northern Ireland Executive proposed a £290 million (about $402 million) COVID-19 economic
recovery action planrecovery action plan~~—called Rebuilding a Stronger Economy—~~ centered on developing a higher centered on developing a higher
skilled and more agile workforce; stimulating research and innovation; building a greener skilled and more agile workforce; stimulating research and innovation; building a greener
economy; and promoting investment, trade, and exports.64 economy; and promoting investment, trade, and exports.64

58 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, 58 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Labour Market Report, , ~~December 14, 2021~~February 15, 2022; ;
Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Quarter 3 2021, ,
January 14, 2022. January 14, 2022.
59 Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service, 59 Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service, Overview of COVID-19 Funding in NI and the
Economic Implications: An Update, December 16, 2020; UK Treasury, “Extra £800 Million to Support Scotland, , December 16, 2020; UK Treasury, “Extra £800 Million to Support Scotland,
Wales and Northern Ireland through Covid-19 This Year,” press release, December 24, 2020. Wales and Northern Ireland through Covid-19 This Year,” press release, December 24, 2020.
60 UK House of Commons Library, 60 UK House of Commons Library, Regional and National Economic Indicators, December 17, 2021. , December 17, 2021.
61 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, 61 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measures 2017, November , November
2017; Duncan Morrow, 2017; Duncan Morrow, Sectarianism in Northern Ireland: A Review, University of Ulster, 2019, pp. 32-35; Testimony , University of Ulster, 2019, pp. 32-35; Testimony
of Monica McWilliams, in U.S. Congress, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the of Monica McWilliams, in U.S. Congress, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the
Environment and Cyber, Environment and Cyber, The United States Role in Reaffirming the Good Friday Agreement, hearings, 117th Cong., 1st , hearings, 117th Cong., 1st
sess., May 5, 2021. sess., May 5, 2021.
62 Northern Ireland Executive Office, 62 Northern Ireland Executive Office, Labour Force Survey Religion Report 2017, January 31, 2019. , January 31, 2019.
63 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, 63 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Quarterly Employment Survey, December 14, , December 14,
2021. 2021.
64 Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, 64 Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Economic Recovery Action Plan, February 25, 2021. , February 25, 2021.
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Implications of Brexit65
In the UK’s June 2016 public referendum on EU membership, voters in Northern Ireland favored In the UK’s June 2016 public referendum on EU membership, voters in Northern Ireland favored
remaining in the EU, 56% to 44% (the UK overall voted in favor of leaving, 52% to 48%). The remaining in the EU, 56% to 44% (the UK overall voted in favor of leaving, 52% to 48%). The
UK withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, but continued to apply EU rules and to UK withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, but continued to apply EU rules and to
participate in the EU’s single market and customs union until the end of an 11-month transition participate in the EU’s single market and customs union until the end of an 11-month transition
period that concluded on December 31, 2020. Brexit has added to divisions within Northern period that concluded on December 31, 2020. Brexit has added to divisions within Northern
Ireland and poses considerable challenges, with potential implications for Northern Ireland’s Ireland and poses considerable challenges, with potential implications for Northern Ireland’s
peace process, economy, and, in the longer term, constitutional status. peace process, economy, and, in the longer term, constitutional status.
The Irish Border and the Withdrawal Agreement
At the time of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the EU membership of both the UK and the At the time of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the EU membership of both the UK and the
Republic of Ireland was regarded as essential to underpinning the political settlement by Republic of Ireland was regarded as essential to underpinning the political settlement by
providing a common European identity for unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland. EU law providing a common European identity for unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland. EU law
also provided a supporting framework for guaranteeing the human rights, equality, and also provided a supporting framework for guaranteeing the human rights, equality, and
nondiscrimination provisions of the peace accord. Since 1998, as security checkpoints were nondiscrimination provisions of the peace accord. Since 1998, as security checkpoints were
dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement, and because both the UK and Ireland dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement, and because both the UK and Ireland
belonged to the EU’s single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border belonged to the EU’s single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border
between Northern Ireland and Ireland effectively disappeared. The open border served as an between Northern Ireland and Ireland effectively disappeared. The open border served as an
important political and psychological symbol on both sides of the sectarian divide and helped important political and psychological symbol on both sides of the sectarian divide and helped
produce a dynamic cross-border economy. produce a dynamic cross-border economy.
Preventing a Preventing a hard border with customs checks and physical infrastructure on the island of Ireland with customs checks and physical infrastructure on the island of Ireland
was a key goal, and a major stumbling block, in negotiating the UK’s withdrawal agreement with was a key goal, and a major stumbling block, in negotiating the UK’s withdrawal agreement with
the EU. UK, Irish, and EU leaders asserted repeatedly that they did not desire a hard border post-the EU. UK, Irish, and EU leaders asserted repeatedly that they did not desire a hard border post-
Brexit. Security assessments suggested that if border or custom posts were reinstated, violent Brexit. Security assessments suggested that if border or custom posts were reinstated, violent
dissident groups opposed to the peace process would view such infrastructure as targets, dissident groups opposed to the peace process would view such infrastructure as targets,
endangering the lives of police and customs officers. Experts feared that such violence would endangering the lives of police and customs officers. Experts feared that such violence would
threaten the region’s security and stability and potentially put the peace process at risk.66 threaten the region’s security and stability and potentially put the peace process at risk.66
Many in Northern Ireland and Ireland also were eager to maintain an open border to ensure Many in Northern Ireland and Ireland also were eager to maintain an open border to ensure
“frictionless” trade, safeguard the North-South economy, and protect community relations. People “frictionless” trade, safeguard the North-South economy, and protect community relations. People
in border communities worried that any hardening of the border could affect daily travel across in border communities worried that any hardening of the border could affect daily travel across
the border to work, shop, or visit family and friends. Estimates suggest there are upward of 300 the border to work, shop, or visit family and friends. Estimates suggest there are upward of 300
public and private border crossing points along the border today; during the Troubles, only a public and private border crossing points along the border today; during the Troubles, only a
fraction of crossing points were open, and hour-long delays due to security measures and fraction of crossing points were open, and hour-long delays due to security measures and
bureaucratic hurdles were common.67 bureaucratic hurdles were common.67
Post-Brexit Arrangements for Northern Ireland
Devising a mechanism to maintain an open border was complicated by the UK government’s Devising a mechanism to maintain an open border was complicated by the UK government’s
decision to keep the UK outside of the EU’s single market and customs union. In early 2019, the decision to keep the UK outside of the EU’s single market and customs union. In early 2019, the
UK Parliament rejected the initial UK-EU withdrawal agreement three times, in large part UK Parliament rejected the initial UK-EU withdrawal agreement three times, in large part

65 For more information on Brexit, see CRS Report R46730, 65 For more information on Brexit, see CRS Report R46730, Brexit: Overview, Trade, and Northern Ireland, ,
coordinated by Derek E. Mix. coordinated by Derek E. Mix.
66 Henry McDonald, “Police Chief Says ‘Hard Brexit’ Irish Border Would Be Paramilitary Target,” 66 Henry McDonald, “Police Chief Says ‘Hard Brexit’ Irish Border Would Be Paramilitary Target,” Guardian, ,
February 7, 2018. February 7, 2018.
67 Sarah Lyall, “On Irish Border, Worries That Brexit Will Undo a Hard-Won Peace,” 67 Sarah Lyall, “On Irish Border, Worries That Brexit Will Undo a Hard-Won Peace,” New York Times, August 5, , August 5,
2017; Maeve Sheehan, “Irish Army Identifies 300 Border Crossing Points,” 2017; Maeve Sheehan, “Irish Army Identifies 300 Border Crossing Points,” Belfast Telegraph, December 17, 2018. , December 17, 2018.
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because of concerns about the because of concerns about the backstop for the Irish border, which would have kept the UK inside for the Irish border, which would have kept the UK inside
the EU customs union until the UK and EU determined their future trade relationship. Some the EU customs union until the UK and EU determined their future trade relationship. Some
Brexit advocates contended that Ireland and the EU were exaggerating and exploiting the security Brexit advocates contended that Ireland and the EU were exaggerating and exploiting the security
concerns about the border to keep the UK close to the EU. Those of this view noted that, although concerns about the border to keep the UK close to the EU. Those of this view noted that, although
the Good Friday Agreement commits the UK to normalizing security arrangements—including the Good Friday Agreement commits the UK to normalizing security arrangements—including
the removal of security installations “consistent with the level of threat”—it does not explicitly the removal of security installations “consistent with the level of threat”—it does not explicitly
require an open border. The Irish government and many in Northern Ireland—as well as most UK require an open border. The Irish government and many in Northern Ireland—as well as most UK
officials—argued that an open border had become intrinsic to peace on the island of Ireland.68 officials—argued that an open border had become intrinsic to peace on the island of Ireland.68
In October 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a revised withdrawal agreement with a In October 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a revised withdrawal agreement with a
renegotiated Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland to ensure an open border on the island of renegotiated Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland to ensure an open border on the island of
Ireland while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market.69 Under the terms of the protocol, Ireland while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market.69 Under the terms of the protocol,
Northern Ireland remains legally in the UK customs territory but maintains regulatory alignment Northern Ireland remains legally in the UK customs territory but maintains regulatory alignment
with the EU. In effect, this arrangement keeps Northern Ireland for all practical purposes in the with the EU. In effect, this arrangement keeps Northern Ireland for all practical purposes in the
EU single market and customs union, thus eliminating the need for regulatory checks on trade in EU single market and customs union, thus eliminating the need for regulatory checks on trade in
goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but essentially creating a customs goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but essentially creating a customs
border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (often termed the border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (often termed the Irish Sea
border). Any physical checks necessary to ensure customs compliance would be conducted at ). Any physical checks necessary to ensure customs compliance would be conducted at
ports or points of entry away from the Northern Ireland-Ireland land border, with no checks or ports or points of entry away from the Northern Ireland-Ireland land border, with no checks or
infrastructure at this border. infrastructure at this border.
The DUP strongly opposed these “Northern Ireland-only” arrangements, contending that they The DUP strongly opposed these “Northern Ireland-only” arrangements, contending that they
would divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and threaten the UK’s constitutional would divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and threaten the UK’s constitutional
integrity. In light of the large majority won by Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative Party in integrity. In light of the large majority won by Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative Party in
the December 2019 UK parliamentary elections, however, the DUP lost political influence and the December 2019 UK parliamentary elections, however, the DUP lost political influence and
was unable to block approval of the renegotiated withdrawal agreement. Both the UK and the EU was unable to block approval of the renegotiated withdrawal agreement. Both the UK and the EU
subsequently ratified the withdrawal agreement, thus enabling the UK to end its 47-year subsequently ratified the withdrawal agreement, thus enabling the UK to end its 47-year
membership in the EU in January 2020. membership in the EU in January 2020.
Concerns about a hard border developing on the island of Ireland mostly receded following the Concerns about a hard border developing on the island of Ireland mostly receded following the
UK Parliament’s approval of the withdrawal agreement and the Northern Ireland protocol. In UK Parliament’s approval of the withdrawal agreement and the Northern Ireland protocol. In
December 2020, the Joint Committee of UK and EU officials reached an agreement on December 2020, the Joint Committee of UK and EU officials reached an agreement on
implementing the protocol after the end of the transition period. Among other issues, the Joint implementing the protocol after the end of the transition period. Among other issues, the Joint
Committee agreed on a process for checks on animals and plants and rules for the supply of Committee agreed on a process for checks on animals and plants and rules for the supply of
medicines and food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain; the EU presence in medicines and food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain; the EU presence in
Northern Ireland; export declaration requirements; and criteria for goods to be considered “not at Northern Ireland; export declaration requirements; and criteria for goods to be considered “not at
risk” of entering the EU (and thus not subject to tariffs).70 risk” of entering the EU (and thus not subject to tariffs).70
Implementation Challenges and Heightened Tensions
Brexit has exacerbated political and societal divisions in Northern Ireland. Even before Brexit, Brexit has exacerbated political and societal divisions in Northern Ireland. Even before Brexit,
demographic trends in Northern Ireland (in which the population gap between Protestants and demographic trends in Northern Ireland (in which the population gap between Protestants and

68 John Campbell, “Brexit: Does the Irish Peace Accord Rule Out a Hard Border?,” BBC News, January 30, 2019; Tom 68 John Campbell, “Brexit: Does the Irish Peace Accord Rule Out a Hard Border?,” BBC News, January 30, 2019; Tom
McTague, “Brexit’s Ulster Problem,” McTague, “Brexit’s Ulster Problem,” Politico, June 12, 2019. , June 12, 2019.
69 Department for Exiting the European Union, 69 Department for Exiting the European Union, New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, October 19, , October 19,
2019, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-withdrawal-agreement-and-political-declaration. 2019, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-withdrawal-agreement-and-political-declaration.
70 The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement concluded in December 2020 was expected to further reduce 70 The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement concluded in December 2020 was expected to further reduce
concerns about “at risk” goods as the deal provides for tariff-free and quota-free merchandise trade between the UK concerns about “at risk” goods as the deal provides for tariff-free and quota-free merchandise trade between the UK
and the EU (if rules of origin requirements are met). “Brexit: UK and EU Reach Deal on Northern Ireland Border and the EU (if rules of origin requirements are met). “Brexit: UK and EU Reach Deal on Northern Ireland Border
Checks,” BBC News, December 8, 2020; European Commission, “Questions and Answers: Joint Committee Formally Checks,” BBC News, December 8, 2020; European Commission, “Questions and Answers: Joint Committee Formally
Adopts a Set of Implementation Measures Related to the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement,” December 17, 2020. Adopts a Set of Implementation Measures Related to the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement,” December 17, 2020.
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Catholics is narrowing) and changes in societal attitudes (especially among young people, who Catholics is narrowing) and changes in societal attitudes (especially among young people, who
may not be as wedded to traditional religious or ethnic identities) were causing some in the may not be as wedded to traditional religious or ethnic identities) were causing some in the
unionist community to perceive a loss in unionist traditions and dominance. The new post-Brexit unionist community to perceive a loss in unionist traditions and dominance. The new post-Brexit
trade arrangements for Northern Ireland appear to be enhancing this sense of unionist trade arrangements for Northern Ireland appear to be enhancing this sense of unionist
disenfranchisement, partly by raising fears that Northern Ireland will be drawn closer to the disenfranchisement, partly by raising fears that Northern Ireland will be drawn closer to the
Republic of Ireland’s economic orbit post-Brexit and that this could be a precursor to a united Republic of Ireland’s economic orbit post-Brexit and that this could be a precursor to a united
Ireland.71 Meanwhile, Brexit also has heightened long-standing nationalist doubts about the Ireland.71 Meanwhile, Brexit also has heightened long-standing nationalist doubts about the
trustworthiness of the UK government and eroded trust between the UK and Irish governments. trustworthiness of the UK government and eroded trust between the UK and Irish governments.
As the guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, cooperation between the UK and Ireland is As the guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, cooperation between the UK and Ireland is
deemed essential to the continued functioning and implementation of the peace accord.72 deemed essential to the continued functioning and implementation of the peace accord.72
Significant challenges have arisen in implementing the protocol, which took effect on January 1, Significant challenges have arisen in implementing the protocol, which took effect on January 1,
2021. The new customs and regulatory requirements on goods entering Northern Ireland from 2021. The new customs and regulatory requirements on goods entering Northern Ireland from
Great Britain have posed trade and administrative difficulties for some businesses and consumers Great Britain have posed trade and administrative difficulties for some businesses and consumers
in Northern Ireland, despite initial grace periods ranging from three months to a year for full in Northern Ireland, despite initial grace periods ranging from three months to a year for full
implementation of the new rules for agri-food products, medicines, and other items. Problems implementation of the new rules for agri-food products, medicines, and other items. Problems
have included shipping delays and product shortages, especially for Northern Ireland have included shipping delays and product shortages, especially for Northern Ireland
supermarkets dependent on suppliers elsewhere in the UK.73 supermarkets dependent on suppliers elsewhere in the UK.73
In late January 2021, the Northern Ireland protocol became entangled in EU efforts to control the In late January 2021, the Northern Ireland protocol became entangled in EU efforts to control the
export of COVID-19 vaccines outside the bloc. The EU initially planned to trigger Article 16 of export of COVID-19 vaccines outside the bloc. The EU initially planned to trigger Article 16 of
the protocol—an emergency override mechanism available to either the UK or the EU to suspend the protocol—an emergency override mechanism available to either the UK or the EU to suspend
parts of the protocol—to prevent vaccines being exported from Northern Ireland to the rest of the parts of the protocol—to prevent vaccines being exported from Northern Ireland to the rest of the
UK. Amid a diplomatic outcry from UK, Irish, and Northern Ireland officials, the EU almost UK. Amid a diplomatic outcry from UK, Irish, and Northern Ireland officials, the EU almost
immediately reversed itself on invoking Article 16, claiming it was a mistake made in haste. immediately reversed itself on invoking Article 16, claiming it was a mistake made in haste.
Nevertheless, the incident is widely viewed as helping to bolster the DUP’s claim that the Nevertheless, the incident is widely viewed as helping to bolster the DUP’s claim that the
protocol is “unworkable.”74 The DUP and other unionists subsequently began urging the UK protocol is “unworkable.”74 The DUP and other unionists subsequently began urging the UK
government to invoke Article 16 itself, given the economic and social problems with the government to invoke Article 16 itself, given the economic and social problems with the
protocol’s implementation. Then-First Minister Foster asserted that the EU’s willingness to protocol’s implementation. Then-First Minister Foster asserted that the EU’s willingness to
invoke Article 16 had “lowered the bar” for the UK to do the same.75 invoke Article 16 had “lowered the bar” for the UK to do the same.75
By March 2021, as the end of the first grace periods approached, UK-EU talks to resolve By March 2021, as the end of the first grace periods approached, UK-EU talks to resolve
challenges arising from the protocol’s implementation had stalled. As such, the UK government challenges arising from the protocol’s implementation had stalled. As such, the UK government
unilaterally extended grace periods that limited checks on parcels, certain agri-food products, unilaterally extended grace periods that limited checks on parcels, certain agri-food products,

71 Ceylan Yeginsu, “In Northern Ireland, Brexit Deal Is Seen as Betrayal,” 71 Ceylan Yeginsu, “In Northern Ireland, Brexit Deal Is Seen as Betrayal,” New York Times, October 24, 2019; Simon , October 24, 2019; Simon
Carswell, “Loyalists on Brexit: A One-Way Route to an Economic United Ireland,” Carswell, “Loyalists on Brexit: A One-Way Route to an Economic United Ireland,” Irish Times, January 30, 2020; , January 30, 2020;
Rory Carroll, “Northern Ireland Clashes Reflect Loyalists’ Fear of Marginalisation,” Rory Carroll, “Northern Ireland Clashes Reflect Loyalists’ Fear of Marginalisation,” Guardian, April 5, 2021. , April 5, 2021.
72 Matthew O’Toole, “Of Course the Internal Market Bill Threatens Northern Ireland,” 72 Matthew O’Toole, “Of Course the Internal Market Bill Threatens Northern Ireland,” Politico, September 23, 2020; , September 23, 2020;
Etain Tannam and Mary C. Murphy, “The Internal Market Bill May Further Erode Trust and Security in Etain Tannam and Mary C. Murphy, “The Internal Market Bill May Further Erode Trust and Security in
Ireland/Northern Ireland,” London School of Economics, September 24, 2020; Pat Leahy, “NI Protocol Tensions Ireland/Northern Ireland,” London School of Economics, September 24, 2020; Pat Leahy, “NI Protocol Tensions
Threaten UK-Ireland, UK-EU and UK-US Relations,” Threaten UK-Ireland, UK-EU and UK-US Relations,” Irish Times, June 11, 2021. , June 11, 2021.
73 Physical checks necessary to ensure customs compliance are now being conducted at ports or points of entry on the 73 Physical checks necessary to ensure customs compliance are now being conducted at ports or points of entry on the
northeast coast of Northern Ireland upon arrival from Great Britain. Shawn Pogatchnik, “Supermarket Pleas Mount as northeast coast of Northern Ireland upon arrival from Great Britain. Shawn Pogatchnik, “Supermarket Pleas Mount as
Brexit Leaves Northern Ireland Shelves Bare,” Brexit Leaves Northern Ireland Shelves Bare,” Politico, January 13, 2021; Arthur Sullivan, “Northern Ireland: The , January 13, 2021; Arthur Sullivan, “Northern Ireland: The
Brexit Problem That Will Not Go Away,” Brexit Problem That Will Not Go Away,” Deutsche Welle (dw.com), February 10, 2021. (dw.com), February 10, 2021.
74 “Arlene Foster Urges PM to Replace ‘Unworkable’ NI Brexit Deal,” BBC News, January 30, 2021; David M. 74 “Arlene Foster Urges PM to Replace ‘Unworkable’ NI Brexit Deal,” BBC News, January 30, 2021; David M.
Herszenhorn and Jakob Hanke Vela, “EU Drops Irish Border Move in Plan to Curb Vaccine Exports,” Herszenhorn and Jakob Hanke Vela, “EU Drops Irish Border Move in Plan to Curb Vaccine Exports,” Politico, January , January
30, 2021. 30, 2021.
75 As quoted in Shawn Pogatchnik, “Brexit Protocol Row Adds Pressure to Northern Ireland Unionists,” 75 As quoted in Shawn Pogatchnik, “Brexit Protocol Row Adds Pressure to Northern Ireland Unionists,” Politico, ,
February 4, 2021. February 4, 2021.
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plants, and used agricultural machinery.76 In response, the EU launched a legal infringement plants, and used agricultural machinery.76 In response, the EU launched a legal infringement
process against the UK for breaching the terms of the protocol. This legal action ultimately could process against the UK for breaching the terms of the protocol. This legal action ultimately could
have led to the UK’s referral to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU, which is often have led to the UK’s referral to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU, which is often
referred to as the European Court of Justice, or ECJ), potential fines, and/or the imposition of referred to as the European Court of Justice, or ECJ), potential fines, and/or the imposition of
tariffs on imports of goods from the UK.77 tariffs on imports of goods from the UK.77
In late June 2021, however, the EU put forward proposals to address several issues in the protocol In late June 2021, however, the EU put forward proposals to address several issues in the protocol
in the interest of finding “creative solutions … with the core purpose of benefitting people in in the interest of finding “creative solutions … with the core purpose of benefitting people in
Northern Ireland.”78 Among other measures, the EU agreed to the UK’s request for a delay in Northern Ireland.”78 Among other measures, the EU agreed to the UK’s request for a delay in
implementing a ban on shipping chilled meat products from the rest of the UK to Northern implementing a ban on shipping chilled meat products from the rest of the UK to Northern
Ireland (EU rules generally do not permit the import of items such as fresh sausages from non-Ireland (EU rules generally do not permit the import of items such as fresh sausages from non-
member states). At the end of July 2021, the EU decided to pause its legal infringement action member states). At the end of July 2021, the EU decided to pause its legal infringement action
against the UK. Irish officials reportedly regarded this step as “a genuine goodwill gesture” by the against the UK. Irish officials reportedly regarded this step as “a genuine goodwill gesture” by the
EU to de-escalate tensions with the UK.79 EU to de-escalate tensions with the UK.79
Sinn Fein, other nationalists, and the Irish government maintain that the protocol is the only Sinn Fein, other nationalists, and the Irish government maintain that the protocol is the only
viable option to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland in light of Brexit and the UK’s viable option to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland in light of Brexit and the UK’s
decision to leave the EU single market and customs union. The EU contends that 80% of the decision to leave the EU single market and customs union. The EU contends that 80% of the
regulatory and customs checks required by the protocol would be eliminated if the UK agreed to regulatory and customs checks required by the protocol would be eliminated if the UK agreed to
align with EU food and veterinary standards. The UK government rejects this approach, given align with EU food and veterinary standards. The UK government rejects this approach, given
that a key rationale for Brexit was to free the UK from EU regulations and due to concerns that that a key rationale for Brexit was to free the UK from EU regulations and due to concerns that
such alignment could impede new UK free-trade deals with other countries, such as the United such alignment could impede new UK free-trade deals with other countries, such as the United
States.80 States.80
In September 2021, DUP leader Donaldson called for significant changes to the protocol, In September 2021, DUP leader Donaldson called for significant changes to the protocol,
including ensuring there is “no border in the Irish Sea.”81 Donaldson warned that the DUP might including ensuring there is “no border in the Irish Sea.”81 Donaldson warned that the DUP might
withdraw its ministers from Northern Ireland’s Executive if concerns over the protocol were not withdraw its ministers from Northern Ireland’s Executive if concerns over the protocol were not
resolvedresolved~~. Such a move by the DUP could collapse the devolved government and could lead to~~
~~early Assembly elections~~. Donaldson also asserted that the DUP would stop engaging with the . Donaldson also asserted that the DUP would stop engaging with the
North-South bodies (except for cooperation on health matters) established under Strand Two of North-South bodies (except for cooperation on health matters) established under Strand Two of
the Good Friday Agreement, would seek to block additional protocol-required customs checks at the Good Friday Agreement, would seek to block additional protocol-required customs checks at
Northern Ireland ports, would examine the legality of the current customs checks, and would Northern Ireland ports, would examine the legality of the current customs checks, and would
“seek to frustrate and prevent” the Northern Ireland Assembly from aligning legislation with EU “seek to frustrate and prevent” the Northern Ireland Assembly from aligning legislation with EU
~~laws. Donaldson has subsequently repeated that the DUP could withdraw its ministers and~~
~~collapse the devolved government if DUP demands related to the protocol are not met.82~~laws.82 As noted above, First Minister Givan resigned in February 2022 in protest against the protocol and amid concerns about the slow progress in UK-EU negotiations.

76 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Written Ministerial Statement to the UK House of Commons, 76 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Written Ministerial Statement to the UK House of Commons,
March 3, 2021, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2021-03-03/hcws819. March 3, 2021, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2021-03-03/hcws819.
77 European Commission, 77 European Commission, Withdrawal Agreement: Commission Sends Letter of Formal Notice to the United Kingdom
for Breach of its Obligations Under the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, March 15, 2021. , March 15, 2021.
78 European Commission, “EU-UK Relations: Solutions Found to Help Implementation of the Protocol on Ireland and 78 European Commission, “EU-UK Relations: Solutions Found to Help Implementation of the Protocol on Ireland and
Northern Ireland,” press release, June 30, 2021. Northern Ireland,” press release, June 30, 2021.
79 John Campbell, “Brexit: EU Pauses Legal Action Against UK over NI Protocol Breaches,” BBC News, July 27, 79 John Campbell, “Brexit: EU Pauses Legal Action Against UK over NI Protocol Breaches,” BBC News, July 27,
2021; Hans von der Burchard, “EU Pauses Both Brexit Lawsuits Against the UK,” 2021; Hans von der Burchard, “EU Pauses Both Brexit Lawsuits Against the UK,” Politico, July 28, 2021. , July 28, 2021.
80 Chris Morris, “Brexit: Can the UK and the EU Reach a Deal on Northern Ireland?,” BBC News, June 16, 2021; 80 Chris Morris, “Brexit: Can the UK and the EU Reach a Deal on Northern Ireland?,” BBC News, June 16, 2021;
Mark Landler, “Britain and the EU Defer Action on Northern Ireland,” Mark Landler, “Britain and the EU Defer Action on Northern Ireland,” New York Times, June 30, 2021; , June 30, 2021; Irish Times, ,
“Donaldson and McDonald Hold ‘Constructive and Frank’ First In-Person Meeting,” July 5, 2021. “Donaldson and McDonald Hold ‘Constructive and Frank’ First In-Person Meeting,” July 5, 2021.
81 Democratic Unionist Party, 81 Democratic Unionist Party, Speech by DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP, September 9, 2021, at , September 9, 2021, at
https://mydup.com/news/sir-jeffrey-donaldson-now-is-the-time-to-act. https://mydup.com/news/sir-jeffrey-donaldson-now-is-the-time-to-act.
82 82 ~~Enda McClafferty, “Is the DUP About to Hit the Emergency Stop Button at Stormont?,” BBC News, January 8,~~
~~2022~~Ibid. .
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Ongoing Negotiations
Since early 2021, the UK and the EU have engaged in negotiations to resolve the operational Since early 2021, the UK and the EU have engaged in negotiations to resolve the operational
challenges related to the Northern Ireland protocol. Talks have been contentious, and progress has challenges related to the Northern Ireland protocol. Talks have been contentious, and progress has
been slow. UK and DUP officials argue that the protocol is not sustainable and that significant been slow. UK and DUP officials argue that the protocol is not sustainable and that significant
changes are necessary to decrease tensions in Northern Ireland, protect peace, and end market changes are necessary to decrease tensions in Northern Ireland, protect peace, and end market
disruptions for businesses and consumers. EU officials consistently have raised concerns that the disruptions for businesses and consumers. EU officials consistently have raised concerns that the
UK is not implementing certain aspects of the protocol, including building and properly staffing UK is not implementing certain aspects of the protocol, including building and properly staffing
border and custom posts in Northern Ireland, sharing customs data, and properly declaring goods border and custom posts in Northern Ireland, sharing customs data, and properly declaring goods
entering Northern Ireland.83 entering Northern Ireland.83
In July 2021, the UK government essentially called for the protocol to be renegotiated, asserting In July 2021, the UK government essentially called for the protocol to be renegotiated, asserting
that a “new balance” must be found so the protocol “can operate pragmatically” in accordance that a “new balance” must be found so the protocol “can operate pragmatically” in accordance
“with the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland.”84 UK officials asserted that the government “with the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland.”84 UK officials asserted that the government
would be justified in invoking Article 16 but would not do so for the time being in favor of would be justified in invoking Article 16 but would not do so for the time being in favor of
finding a consensual solution through negotiations. Among other changes, the UK government finding a consensual solution through negotiations. Among other changes, the UK government
called for largely removing customs checks on goods from Great Britain intended to remain in called for largely removing customs checks on goods from Great Britain intended to remain in
Northern Ireland, removing medicines from the scope of the protocol, and eliminating the role of Northern Ireland, removing medicines from the scope of the protocol, and eliminating the role of
the EU institutions in overseeing the protocol’s operation (especially the EU’s ability to take the EU institutions in overseeing the protocol’s operation (especially the EU’s ability to take
disputes related to the application of EU law in Northern Ireland to the CJEU). Some analysts disputes related to the application of EU law in Northern Ireland to the CJEU). Some analysts
suggest the UK’s proposals for a revamped protocol would rely mostly on the EU trusting the UK suggest the UK’s proposals for a revamped protocol would rely mostly on the EU trusting the UK
to protect the EU’s single market rather than on abiding by EU rules.85 to protect the EU’s single market rather than on abiding by EU rules.85
The EU rejects renegotiating the Northern Ireland protocol, reiterating that it represents a joint, The EU rejects renegotiating the Northern Ireland protocol, reiterating that it represents a joint,
already-agreed UK-EU solution to the challenges Brexit poses to the island of Ireland. The EU already-agreed UK-EU solution to the challenges Brexit poses to the island of Ireland. The EU
maintains that any measures to resolve implementation problems with the post-Brexit maintains that any measures to resolve implementation problems with the post-Brexit
arrangements for Northern Ireland must be found “within the framework” of the protocol.86 In arrangements for Northern Ireland must be found “within the framework” of the protocol.86 In
October 2021, the EU issued proposals to address some of the operational difficulties related to October 2021, the EU issued proposals to address some of the operational difficulties related to
customs paperwork, agri-food rules, and the supply of medicines; the EU also proposed ways to customs paperwork, agri-food rules, and the supply of medicines; the EU also proposed ways to
enhance engagement and dialogue with Northern Ireland authorities and stakeholders on the enhance engagement and dialogue with Northern Ireland authorities and stakeholders on the
application of the protocol and EU rules.87 application of the protocol and EU rules.87
UK-EU negotiations continued through the rest of 2021 but remained largely stalled. UK-EU UK-EU negotiations continued through the rest of 2021 but remained largely stalled. UK-EU
positions diverge on numerous key issues, including customs checks, agri-food safety rules, and positions diverge on numerous key issues, including customs checks, agri-food safety rules, and
the role of the EU institutions (see text box, “Northern Ireland Protocol Negotiations: Key the role of the EU institutions (see text box, “Northern Ireland Protocol Negotiations: Key
Issues,” below). In December 2021, as the end of another grace period approached, the EU Issues,” below). In December 2021, as the end of another grace period approached, the EU
unilaterally took steps to ease restrictions on British medicine and drug manufacturers that supply unilaterally took steps to ease restrictions on British medicine and drug manufacturers that supply

83 Lisa O’Carroll, Heather Stewart, and Daniel Boffey, “UK in ‘Constructive’ Talks with EU over Northern Ireland 83 Lisa O’Carroll, Heather Stewart, and Daniel Boffey, “UK in ‘Constructive’ Talks with EU over Northern Ireland
Protocol,” Protocol,” Guardian, February 3, 2021; BBC News, “Brexit: Preserving NI Protocol Is ‘The Only Way Forward,’ , February 3, 2021; BBC News, “Brexit: Preserving NI Protocol Is ‘The Only Way Forward,’
Warns EU,” February 10, 2021; Reuters, “EU Not Interested in Protecting Belfast Peace Agreement – Northern Ireland Warns EU,” February 10, 2021; Reuters, “EU Not Interested in Protecting Belfast Peace Agreement – Northern Ireland
First Minister,” March 5, 2021; Jim Brunsden et al., “UK Says That Brussels Trying to ‘Exploit’ Biden Visit to Exert First Minister,” March 5, 2021; Jim Brunsden et al., “UK Says That Brussels Trying to ‘Exploit’ Biden Visit to Exert
Brexit Pressure,” Brexit Pressure,” Financial Times, June 8, 2021. , June 8, 2021.
84 Government of the UK, 84 Government of the UK, Northern Ireland Protocol: The Way Forward, July 21, 2021, p. 15, at https://www.gov.uk/, July 21, 2021, p. 15, at https://www.gov.uk/
government/publications/northern-ireland-protocol-next-steps. government/publications/northern-ireland-protocol-next-steps.
85 See, for example, the analysis by John Campbell in “Brexit: Stormont Parties Divided on UK Call to Amend NI 85 See, for example, the analysis by John Campbell in “Brexit: Stormont Parties Divided on UK Call to Amend NI
Protocol,” BBC News, July 21, 2021; and Jennifer Rankin, “UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol Demands Sap Brussels’ Protocol,” BBC News, July 21, 2021; and Jennifer Rankin, “UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol Demands Sap Brussels’
Goodwill,” Goodwill,” Guardian, July 21, 2021. , July 21, 2021.
86 European Commission, “Statement by Vice-President Maros Sefcovic Following Today’s Announcement by the UK 86 European Commission, “Statement by Vice-President Maros Sefcovic Following Today’s Announcement by the UK
Government Regarding the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland,” press release, July 21, 2021. Government Regarding the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland,” press release, July 21, 2021.
87 European Commission, “Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Commission Proposes Bespoke Arrangements to 87 European Commission, “Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Commission Proposes Bespoke Arrangements to
Benefit Northern Ireland,” press release, October 13, 2021. Benefit Northern Ireland,” press release, October 13, 2021.
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Northern Ireland following a failure to reach a joint UK-EU solution on this issue. The EU steps Northern Ireland following a failure to reach a joint UK-EU solution on this issue. The EU steps
include amending EU legislation to “ensure the continued supply of medicines to Northern include amending EU legislation to “ensure the continued supply of medicines to Northern
Ireland,” especially in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; the EU also asserted that these Ireland,” especially in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; the EU also asserted that these
measures measures ~~demonstrate~~demonstrated that the protocol “has the flexibility to work on the ground” and expressed that the protocol “has the flexibility to work on the ground” and expressed
hope for resolving other challenges posed by the protocol.88 hope for resolving other challenges posed by the protocol.88
Northern Ireland Protocol Negotiations: Key Issues
The UK and the EU The UK and the EU ~~remain~~are engaged in negotiations to ease operational difficulties with the Northern Ireland engaged in negotiations to ease operational difficulties with the Northern Ireland
protocol, decrease tensions, and facilitate trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Key issues and protocol, decrease tensions, and facilitate trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Key issues and
points of contention related to the protocol include the fol owing. points of contention related to the protocol include the fol owing.
Customs Checks. Both the UK and EU have made proposals to reduce the need for customs declarations and Both the UK and EU have made proposals to reduce the need for customs declarations and
paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The EU has proposed expanding the paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The EU has proposed expanding the
definition of goods “not at risk” of entering the EU to cover more goods and easing administrative requirements. definition of goods “not at risk” of entering the EU to cover more goods and easing administrative requirements.
The EU asserts that these measures wil decrease the documentation currently needed for goods by 50%. The UK The EU asserts that these measures wil decrease the documentation currently needed for goods by 50%. The UK
has proposed that customs documentation requirements should only apply to those goods moving from Great has proposed that customs documentation requirements should only apply to those goods moving from Great
Britain to Northern Ireland that are destined for the EU, with traders responsible for declaring the destination of Britain to Northern Ireland that are destined for the EU, with traders responsible for declaring the destination of
their goods; those goods staying in Northern Ireland would not be subject to tariffs or customs declarations. their goods; those goods staying in Northern Ireland would not be subject to tariffs or customs declarations.
Agri-food Rules. Animal and plant products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain must comply with EU Animal and plant products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain must comply with EU
sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules, including physical inspection requirements for products of animal origin and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules, including physical inspection requirements for products of animal origin and
prohibitions on certain categories of plant and animal products, such as chil ed meats. The EU has proposed prohibitions on certain categories of plant and animal products, such as chil ed meats. The EU has proposed
simplifying paperwork and reducing SPS checks for a wide range of retail goods from Great Britain that wil be simplifying paperwork and reducing SPS checks for a wide range of retail goods from Great Britain that wil be
remain in Northern Ireland and an exemption for “iconic” British products, such as sausages, subject to special remain in Northern Ireland and an exemption for “iconic” British products, such as sausages, subject to special
certifications. The EU contends that these “bespoke” solutions wil decrease SPS checks by roughly 80%. Similar to certifications. The EU contends that these “bespoke” solutions wil decrease SPS checks by roughly 80%. Similar to
its position on customs checks, the UK maintains that only goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland its position on customs checks, the UK maintains that only goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland
that are destined for the EU should require SPS checks and paperwork, and those remaining in Northern Ireland that are destined for the EU should require SPS checks and paperwork, and those remaining in Northern Ireland
should only need to meet UK SPS standards. should only need to meet UK SPS standards.
Role of EU Institutions. Under the protocol, the application of EU law in Northern Ireland is subject to Under the protocol, the application of EU law in Northern Ireland is subject to
oversight by the EU institutions. The European Commission (the EU’s executive) can take action against the UK oversight by the EU institutions. The European Commission (the EU’s executive) can take action against the UK
government for not complying with EU rules, including referring the UK to the Court of Justice of the European government for not complying with EU rules, including referring the UK to the Court of Justice of the European
Union (CJEU, also commonly referred to as the European Court of Justice, or ECJ). In its July 2021 proposals on Union (CJEU, also commonly referred to as the European Court of Justice, or ECJ). In its July 2021 proposals on
the protocol, the UK government called for eliminating the EU institutions’ oversight role and argued that disputes the protocol, the UK government called for eliminating the EU institutions’ oversight role and argued that disputes
related to the protocol should be managed jointly by the UK and the EU. UK officials argue that the EU’s oversight related to the protocol should be managed jointly by the UK and the EU. UK officials argue that the EU’s oversight
of the protocol infringes on UK sovereignty. Since July 2021, however, there have been some signs that the UK of the protocol infringes on UK sovereignty. Since July 2021, however, there have been some signs that the UK
may be softening its position and wil ing to accept an arbitration system to manage disputes, including a mechanism may be softening its position and wil ing to accept an arbitration system to manage disputes, including a mechanism
to consult the CJEU on matters of EU law. The EU, however, firmly opposes any changes to the role of the EU to consult the CJEU on matters of EU law. The EU, however, firmly opposes any changes to the role of the EU
institutions, including the CJEU, in overseeing the protocol. institutions, including the CJEU, in overseeing the protocol.
Other Issues. Other negotiation issues include the movement of pets and live animals between Great Britain and Other negotiation issues include the movement of pets and live animals between Great Britain and
Northern Ireland, UK subsidies to Northern Ireland businesses, and value added tax (VAT) and excise rules. The Northern Ireland, UK subsidies to Northern Ireland businesses, and value added tax (VAT) and excise rules. The
EU also has proposed deepening ties to Northern Ireland civic groups, businesses, and other stakeholders to EU also has proposed deepening ties to Northern Ireland civic groups, businesses, and other stakeholders to
increase transparency and help ensure that EU policymakers take Northern Ireland views into account in increase transparency and help ensure that EU policymakers take Northern Ireland views into account in
developing or amending EU rules that wil apply in Northern Ireland. developing or amending EU rules that wil apply in Northern Ireland.
Sources: Government of the UK, Government of the UK, Northern Ireland Protocol: The Way Forward, July 21, 2021; European Commission, , July 21, 2021; European Commission,
“Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Commission Proposes Bespoke Arrangements to Benefit Northern “Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: Commission Proposes Bespoke Arrangements to Benefit Northern
Ireland,” press release, October 13, 2021; Institute for Government, “Northern Ireland Protocol: Ongoing UK-EU Ireland,” press release, October 13, 2021; Institute for Government, “Northern Ireland Protocol: Ongoing UK-EU
Disagreements,” October 14, 2021; Jennifer Rankin, “Northern Ireland: What Are the EU and UK Proposing and Disagreements,” October 14, 2021; Jennifer Rankin, “Northern Ireland: What Are the EU and UK Proposing and
Wil Deal Be Done?,” Wil Deal Be Done?,” Guardian, December 17, 2021. , December 17, 2021.
UK-EU negotiations on the protocol resumed in January 2022. UK officials reportedly would like UK-EU negotiations on the protocol resumed in January 2022. UK officials reportedly would like
to reach a deal ahead of Northern Ireland’s scheduled Assembly elections in May 2022, in an to reach a deal ahead of Northern Ireland’s scheduled Assembly elections in May 2022, in an
attempt to prevent Brexit and the protocol from becoming dominant campaign issues. Irish attempt to prevent Brexit and the protocol from becoming dominant campaign issues. Irish

88 The EU legislation also seeks to resolve outstanding supply issues in EU member states Ireland, Cyprus, and Malta. 88 The EU legislation also seeks to resolve outstanding supply issues in EU member states Ireland, Cyprus, and Malta.
European Commission, “EU-UK Relations: Commission Delivers on Promise to Ensure Continued Supply of European Commission, “EU-UK Relations: Commission Delivers on Promise to Ensure Continued Supply of
Medicines to Northern Ireland, as well as to Cyprus, Ireland and Malta,” press release, December 17, 2021. Medicines to Northern Ireland, as well as to Cyprus, Ireland and Malta,” press release, December 17, 2021.
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officials contend that the EU has made or suggested several compromises to resolve difficulties officials contend that the EU has made or suggested several compromises to resolve difficulties
posed by the protocol and that the UK government must be willing to make concessions posed by the protocol and that the UK government must be willing to make concessions ~~also.89~~
~~Some analysts believe progress in the negotiations may be possible in early 2022. UK Foreign~~
~~Secretary Liz Truss has taken over the talks following the resignation of the UK’s former,~~
~~hardline Brexit negotiator Lord David Frost. At the same time, Truss has reiterated that the UK~~
~~could invoke Article 16 to suspend parts of the protocol if negotiations fail. The~~also.89The DUP continues to DUP continues to
demand an end to the Irish Sea border and to most customs and regulatory checks on trade in demand an end to the Irish Sea border and to most customs and regulatory checks on trade in
goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein maintains that the focus of the UK-goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein maintains that the focus of the UK-
EU negotiations should be on making the protocol work better for people and businesses in EU negotiations should be on making the protocol work better for people and businesses in
Northern Ireland.90 Northern Ireland.90
Economic Concerns
Following the 2016 UK referendum, many experts expressed concern about Brexit’s possible Following the 2016 UK referendum, many experts expressed concern about Brexit’s possible
economic consequences for Northern Ireland. According to a UK parliamentary report, Northern economic consequences for Northern Ireland. According to a UK parliamentary report, Northern
Ireland depends more on the EU market (and especially that of Ireland) for its exports than does Ireland depends more on the EU market (and especially that of Ireland) for its exports than does
the rest of the UK.91 In 2019, approximately 59% of Northern Ireland’s exports went to the EU, the rest of the UK.91 In 2019, approximately 59% of Northern Ireland’s exports went to the EU,
including 38% to Ireland, which was Northern Ireland’s top single export and import partner.92 including 38% to Ireland, which was Northern Ireland’s top single export and import partner.92
Significant fears existed in particular that a no-deal Brexit (i.e., without a withdrawal agreement Significant fears existed in particular that a no-deal Brexit (i.e., without a withdrawal agreement
in place) would have jeopardized labor markets and industries that operate on an all-island basis. in place) would have jeopardized labor markets and industries that operate on an all-island basis.
Many manufacturers in Northern Ireland and Ireland depend on integrated supply chains north Many manufacturers in Northern Ireland and Ireland depend on integrated supply chains north
and south of the border. For example, raw materials that go into making milk, cheese, butter, and and south of the border. For example, raw materials that go into making milk, cheese, butter, and
alcoholic drinks often cross the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland several times for alcoholic drinks often cross the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland several times for
processing and packaging.93 The vast majority of cross-border transactions are made by micro and processing and packaging.93 The vast majority of cross-border transactions are made by micro and
small businesses, which dominate Northern Ireland’s economy.94 small businesses, which dominate Northern Ireland’s economy.94
UK and DUP leaders asserted that the rest of the UK is overall more important economically to UK and DUP leaders asserted that the rest of the UK is overall more important economically to
Northern Ireland than the EU given the value of exports. In 2019, sales to other parts of the UK Northern Ireland than the EU given the value of exports. In 2019, sales to other parts of the UK
(£11.3 billion) were more than double the value of exports to Ireland (£4.5 billion) and more than (£11.3 billion) were more than double the value of exports to Ireland (£4.5 billion) and more than
four times the value of exports to the rest of the EU (£2.4 billion).95 Among the DUP’s initial four times the value of exports to the rest of the EU (£2.4 billion).95 Among the DUP’s initial
objections to the post-Brexit arrangements agreed in 2019, the DUP argued that they would be objections to the post-Brexit arrangements agreed in 2019, the DUP argued that they would be
detrimental to the region’s economy. The DUP asserts that such concerns have proven correct detrimental to the region’s economy. The DUP asserts that such concerns have proven correct
given the supply problems and shipping delays affecting Northern Ireland since the new post-given the supply problems and shipping delays affecting Northern Ireland since the new post-
Brexit customs and regulatory requirements took effect. Major UK supermarket chains warn that Brexit customs and regulatory requirements took effect. Major UK supermarket chains warn that
full implementation of the protocol could lead to increased costs for Northern Ireland consumers. One study from the University of Ulster estimates that the costs of the protocol to Northern Ireland’s public and private sectors could be around £850 million (around $1.2 billion) per year.96
89 Christina Gallardo, “Brexit Talks Head into 2022 as UK Softens Northern Ireland Governance Demands,” 89 Christina Gallardo, “Brexit Talks Head into 2022 as UK Softens Northern Ireland Governance Demands,” Politico, ,
December 17, 2021; Jude Webber, “Protocol Negotiations Need to be Finished by End of February, Says Coveney,” December 17, 2021; Jude Webber, “Protocol Negotiations Need to be Finished by End of February, Says Coveney,”
Irish Times, December 31, 2021. , December 31, 2021.
90 Jayne McCormack, “Brexit: NI Protocol 90 Jayne McCormack, “Brexit: NI Protocol Talks Must End Soon, Says Donaldson,” BBC News, January 7, 2022; Must End Soon, Says Donaldson,” BBC News, January 7, 2022; ~~Annabelle~~
~~Dickson, “UK Renews Threat to Suspend Parts of Brexit Deal in Northern Ireland Ahead of Talks,” Politico, January 9,~~
~~2022; Andy Bounds, Peter Foster, and Jude Webber, “UK and EU to Intensify Talks on Northern Ireland Trade~~
~~Arrangements,” Financial Times, January 14, 2022; Michael Holden, “UK Says There’s a Deal to be Done to Solve~~
~~Post-Brexit Trade Issues,” Reuters, January 14, 2022.~~
John Campbell, “Brexit: UK and EU Still Determined to Find Solutions to Protocol,” BBC News, March 8, 2022. 91 Report of the UK House of Lords European Union Committee, 91 Report of the UK House of Lords European Union Committee, Brexit: UK-Irish Relations, December 2016. , December 2016.
92 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, 92 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Overview of Northern Ireland Trade, August 4, 2021. , August 4, 2021.
93 Simon Marks, “Brexit Is (Maybe) the Ruin of Irish Whiskey,” 93 Simon Marks, “Brexit Is (Maybe) the Ruin of Irish Whiskey,” Politico, March 3, 2017; Colm Kelpie, “Brexit: How , March 3, 2017; Colm Kelpie, “Brexit: How
Would No-Deal Affect Northern Ireland?,” BBC News, September 22, 2019. Would No-Deal Affect Northern Ireland?,” BBC News, September 22, 2019.
94 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, 94 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Overview of Northern Ireland Trade, August 4, 2021. , August 4, 2021.
95 Ibid. 95 Ibid.
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~~full implementation of the protocol could lead to increased costs for Northern Ireland consumers.~~
~~One study from the University of Ulster estimates that the costs of the protocol to Northern~~
~~Ireland’s public and private sectors could be around £850 million (around $1.2 billion) per year.96~~96 John Campbell, “Brexit Deal Could Reduce Spending, Investment, and Trade in NI,” BBC News, October 22, 2019; “Brexit: Supermarkets Warn of Rising Costs Due to NI Protocol,” BBC News, July 18, 2021; Esmond Birnie, “The Irish Sea Border Is Costing Northern Ireland £850m a Year,” newsletter.co.uk, August 12, 2021. Congressional Research Service 26 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests
UK officials maintain that the government is determined to “make a success of Brexit” for UK officials maintain that the government is determined to “make a success of Brexit” for
Northern Ireland.97 They insist that Brexit offers new economic opportunities for Northern Ireland Northern Ireland.97 They insist that Brexit offers new economic opportunities for Northern Ireland
outside the EU. Supporters of the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland argue that the outside the EU. Supporters of the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland argue that the
provisions in the protocol will help to improve the region’s economic prospects. Northern Ireland provisions in the protocol will help to improve the region’s economic prospects. Northern Ireland
remains part of the UK customs union and thus will be able to participate in future UK trade remains part of the UK customs union and thus will be able to participate in future UK trade
deals, but it also retains privileged access to the EU single market. These measures may help deals, but it also retains privileged access to the EU single market. These measures may help
increase competitiveness of Northern Ireland firms and make the region a more attractive increase competitiveness of Northern Ireland firms and make the region a more attractive
destination for foreign direct investment. Some Northern Ireland business leaders report broad destination for foreign direct investment. Some Northern Ireland business leaders report broad
satisfaction with the protocol and note that it has a number of benefits, including keeping cross-satisfaction with the protocol and note that it has a number of benefits, including keeping cross-
border trade open. A January 2022 study found that Northern Ireland manufacturers have made border trade open. A January 2022 study found that Northern Ireland manufacturers have made
“significant” strides in adjusting to the protocol’s rules, with less than 25% of those surveyed “significant” strides in adjusting to the protocol’s rules, with less than 25% of those surveyed
reporting problems (down from more than 40% in mid-2021).98 reporting problems (down from more than 40% in mid-2021).98
Constitutional Status and Border Poll Prospects
Brexit has revived questions about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Sinn Fein argues that Brexit has revived questions about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Sinn Fein argues that
“Brexit changes everything” and could generate greater support for a united Ireland.99 Since the “Brexit changes everything” and could generate greater support for a united Ireland.99 Since the
2016 Brexit referendum, Sinn Fein has repeatedly called for a 2016 Brexit referendum, Sinn Fein has repeatedly called for a border poll (a referendum on (a referendum on
whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK or join the Republic of Ireland) in the whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK or join the Republic of Ireland) in the
hopes of realizing its long-term goal of Irish unification. hopes of realizing its long-term goal of Irish unification.
As noted previously, the Good Friday Agreement provides for the possibility of a border poll in As noted previously, the Good Friday Agreement provides for the possibility of a border poll in
Northern Ireland, in line with the consent principle. Any decision to hold a border poll in Northern Ireland, in line with the consent principle. Any decision to hold a border poll in
Northern Ireland on its constitutional status rests with the UK Secretary of State for Northern Northern Ireland on its constitutional status rests with the UK Secretary of State for Northern
Ireland. In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll must be called if it Ireland. In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll must be called if it
“appears likely” that “a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland “appears likely” that “a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland
should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”100 should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”100
At present, experts believe there is not sufficient evidence to convince the UK government to call At present, experts believe there is not sufficient evidence to convince the UK government to call
a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Most opinion polls indicate that a a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Most opinion polls indicate that a
majority of people in Northern Ireland continue to support the region’s position as part of the UK. majority of people in Northern Ireland continue to support the region’s position as part of the UK.
Although a January 2021 survey found that 51% of people in Northern Ireland would support Although a January 2021 survey found that 51% of people in Northern Ireland would support
holding a border poll in the next five years (with 44% opposed and 5% having no opinion), it also holding a border poll in the next five years (with 44% opposed and 5% having no opinion), it also
found that 47% favored Northern Ireland remaining in the UK versus 42% in support of a united found that 47% favored Northern Ireland remaining in the UK versus 42% in support of a united
Ireland.Ireland. ~~An April~~101 A December 2021 survey found similar results, with 2021 survey found similar results, with 4954% of those polled in Northern % of those polled in Northern Ireland supporting the region’s continued position within the UK versus 46% against.102 At the same time, several recent surveys indicate that a majority of respondents in Northern Ireland ~~Ireland~~

~~96 John Campbell, “Brexit Deal Could Reduce Spending, Investment, and Trade in NI,” BBC News, October 22, 2019;~~
~~“Brexit: Supermarkets Warn of Rising Costs Due to NI Protocol,” BBC News, July 18, 2021; Esmond Birnie, “The~~
~~Irish Sea Border Is Costing Northern Ireland £850m a Year,” newsletter.co.uk, August 12, 2021.~~
97 UK Government Press Release, “Brokenshire Holds Inaugural Meeting of Northern Ireland Business Advisory 97 UK Government Press Release, “Brokenshire Holds Inaugural Meeting of Northern Ireland Business Advisory
Group,” September 1, 2016; Stephen Walker, “Brexit: Northern Ireland Can Be Success Outside EU,” BBC News, Group,” September 1, 2016; Stephen Walker, “Brexit: Northern Ireland Can Be Success Outside EU,” BBC News,
October 4, 2016. October 4, 2016.
98 Sandra O’Connell, “Businesses Recognize North’s Unique Trading Status Despite Fears,” 98 Sandra O’Connell, “Businesses Recognize North’s Unique Trading Status Despite Fears,” Irish Times, February 26, , February 26,
2021; Shawn Pogatchnik, “Northern Ireland to Frost: Enforce the Protocol, Don’t Fight It,” 2021; Shawn Pogatchnik, “Northern Ireland to Frost: Enforce the Protocol, Don’t Fight It,” Politico, July 9, 2021; Peter , July 9, 2021; Peter
Foster, Jude Webber, and Andy Bounds, “Northern Ireland Manufacturers Make ‘Significant’ Post-Brexit Strides,” Foster, Jude Webber, and Andy Bounds, “Northern Ireland Manufacturers Make ‘Significant’ Post-Brexit Strides,”
Financial Times, January 12, 2022. , January 12, 2022.
99 Sinn Fein Discussion Document, 99 Sinn Fein Discussion Document, Towards a United Ireland, November 2016. , November 2016.
100 UK Government, Northern Ireland Act 1998. 100 UK Government, Northern Ireland Act 1998.
101 Gerry Moriarty, “Poll Finds Majority Favours Holding a Border Poll in Next Five Years,” Irish Times, January 24, 2021. 102 Colm Keena, “Majority of People in North Would Vote to Remain in UK in Referendum,” Irish Times, December 12, 2021. Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
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~~supporting the region’s continued position within the UK versus 43% for a united Ireland.101~~
~~Prime Minister Johnson~~believe a united Ireland is possible in the longer term, with predictions ranging from within 10 to 25 years.103 Prime Minister Johnson, however, reportedly has asserted that there will be no referendum on Northern reportedly has asserted that there will be no referendum on Northern
Ireland’s status for “a very, very long time to come.”Ireland’s status for “a very, very long time to come.”~~102~~
~~At the same time, experts note that several~~104 Several factors could boost support for a united Ireland and factors could boost support for a united Ireland and
influence whether a border poll is called in the years ahead. As discussed, Northern Ireland’s influence whether a border poll is called in the years ahead. As discussed, Northern Ireland’s
demographics are changing; many experts expect forthcoming census data will show that demographics are changing; many experts expect forthcoming census data will show that
Catholics equal or outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland. The post-Brexit arrangements for Catholics equal or outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland. The post-Brexit arrangements for
Northern Ireland could lead to enhanced trade ties with the Republic of Ireland and greater Northern Ireland could lead to enhanced trade ties with the Republic of Ireland and greater
economic integration (data as of late 2021 indicate a significant increase in cross-border trade economic integration (data as of late 2021 indicate a significant increase in cross-border trade
since the Northern Ireland protocol took effect). Analysts suggest that nonaligned voters who do since the Northern Ireland protocol took effect). Analysts suggest that nonaligned voters who do
not identify as unionist or nationalist may be the decisive swing bloc in any future border poll and not identify as unionist or nationalist may be the decisive swing bloc in any future border poll and
that such voters are likely to be swayed on the question of Irish unification more by its that such voters are likely to be swayed on the question of Irish unification more by its
implications for issues such as the economy, health care, and pensions than by identity politics. In implications for issues such as the economy, health care, and pensions than by identity politics. In
addition, should Sinn Fein win the largest number of seats in the next Assembly elections in addition, should Sinn Fein win the largest number of seats in the next Assembly elections in
Northern Ireland, this could increase pressure on the UK government to call a border poll.Northern Ireland, this could increase pressure on the UK government to call a border poll.~~103~~105
Irish unification also would be subject to Ireland’s consent and approval. In Ireland’s February Irish unification also would be subject to Ireland’s consent and approval. In Ireland’s February
2020 parliamentary election, Sinn Fein secured the largest percentage of the vote for the first time 2020 parliamentary election, Sinn Fein secured the largest percentage of the vote for the first time
in Ireland’s history, and some commentators suggest the party’s electoral success has helped push in Ireland’s history, and some commentators suggest the party’s electoral success has helped push
the question of unification higher on the political agenda in the Republic of Ireland. Ireland’s the question of unification higher on the political agenda in the Republic of Ireland. Ireland’s
three-party coalition government, consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, has three-party coalition government, consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, has
launched a “Shared Island” initiative to promote cross-border dialogue and research on common launched a “Shared Island” initiative to promote cross-border dialogue and research on common
challenges and the future of the island but has adopted what many view as a “go slow” approach challenges and the future of the island but has adopted what many view as a “go slow” approach
to the question of Irish unification. The Irish government maintains that voters, both north and to the question of Irish unification. The Irish government maintains that voters, both north and
south, must have a clear idea of what a united Ireland would look like—and how unionists would south, must have a clear idea of what a united Ireland would look like—and how unionists would
be accommodated politically—before any border poll is held.be accommodated politically—before any border poll is held.~~104~~106
Some experts question the current extent of support in Ireland for unification, given concerns that Some experts question the current extent of support in Ireland for unification, given concerns that
unification could spark renewed loyalist violence in Northern Ireland as well as the potential unification could spark renewed loyalist violence in Northern Ireland as well as the potential
economic costs. The UK provides Northern Ireland annually with a roughly £10 billion (about economic costs. The UK provides Northern Ireland annually with a roughly £10 billion (about
$14 billion) budget subsidy to make up the shortfall in the region’s tax revenues. Although part of $14 billion) budget subsidy to make up the shortfall in the region’s tax revenues. Although part of
this subsidy helps to fund Northern Ireland’s share of the UK’s national debt and sizeable defense this subsidy helps to fund Northern Ireland’s share of the UK’s national debt and sizeable defense
spending—costs that would not be incurred to the same extent by Dublin—Northern Ireland’s spending—costs that would not be incurred to the same extent by Dublin—Northern Ireland’s
budget deficit points to concerns about the region’s economy and reliance on the public sector. An budget deficit points to concerns about the region’s economy and reliance on the public sector. An
April 2021 poll found that 67% of people surveyed in Ireland would support unification, but 54% April 2021 poll found that 67% of people surveyed in Ireland would support unification, but 54%
reported they would be unwilling to pay higher taxes to fund a united Ireland.reported they would be unwilling to pay higher taxes to fund a united Ireland.~~105~~107

~~101 Gerry Moriarty, “Poll Finds Majority Favours Holding a Border Poll in Next Five Years,” Irish Times, January 24,~~
~~2021; BBC News,~~103 Ibid. Also see “NI 100: Majority Believe NI Will Leave UK Within 25 Years,” “NI 100: Majority Believe NI Will Leave UK Within 25 Years,” BBC News, April 20, 2021. April 20, 2021.
~~102~~104 As quoted in Brian Hutton, “Boris Johnson: No Border Poll for Very Long Time to Come,” As quoted in Brian Hutton, “Boris Johnson: No Border Poll for Very Long Time to Come,” Irish Times, April 20, , April 20,
2021. 2021.
~~103~~105 Tony Barber, “Brexit Raises the Spectre of the UK’s Break-Up,” Tony Barber, “Brexit Raises the Spectre of the UK’s Break-Up,” Financial Times, October 22, 2019; Alex Kane, , October 22, 2019; Alex Kane,
“Unionists May Find Being Bounced into Border Poll Is Boris’s Preferred Option,” “Unionists May Find Being Bounced into Border Poll Is Boris’s Preferred Option,” Irish Times, February 8, 2021; , February 8, 2021;
Peter Foster and Laura Noonan, “Brexit Ignites the Debate About a United Ireland,” Peter Foster and Laura Noonan, “Brexit Ignites the Debate About a United Ireland,” Financial Times, April 6, 2021; , April 6, 2021;
John Campbell, “Northern Ireland Exports to Republic Set to Pass €3bn This Year,” BBC News, November 17, 2021. John Campbell, “Northern Ireland Exports to Republic Set to Pass €3bn This Year,” BBC News, November 17, 2021.
~~104~~106 Naomi O’Leary, “Sinn Fein Surge Makes Irish Political History,” Naomi O’Leary, “Sinn Fein Surge Makes Irish Political History,” Politico, February 9, 2020; Shawn Pogatchnik and , February 9, 2020; Shawn Pogatchnik and
Giovanna Coi, “Can Northern Ireland Survive Brexit?,” Giovanna Coi, “Can Northern Ireland Survive Brexit?,” Politico, April 13, 2021. , April 13, 2021.
~~105~~107 Henry Farrell, “After Britain’s Elections, People Are Talking About a United Ireland. Don’t Hold Your Breath,” Henry Farrell, “After Britain’s Elections, People Are Talking About a United Ireland. Don’t Hold Your Breath,”
Washington Post, December 13, 2019; Fionnan Sheahan, “Majority Favour a United Ireland, but Just 22pc Would Pay , December 13, 2019; Fionnan Sheahan, “Majority Favour a United Ireland, but Just 22pc Would Pay
for It,” for It,” Irish Independent, May 1, 2021; Eoin Burke-Kennedy, “What Would Be the Economic Costs and Benefits of a , May 1, 2021; Eoin Burke-Kennedy, “What Would Be the Economic Costs and Benefits of a
United Ireland?,” United Ireland?,” Irish Times, May 7, 2021. , May 7, 2021.
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U.S. Policy and Congressional Interests
Support for the Peace Process
Successive U.S. Administrations have viewed the Good Friday Agreement as the best framework Successive U.S. Administrations have viewed the Good Friday Agreement as the best framework
for a lasting peace in Northern Ireland. The Clinton Administration was instrumental in helping for a lasting peace in Northern Ireland. The Clinton Administration was instrumental in helping
the parties forge the agreement, and the George W. Bush Administration strongly backed its full the parties forge the agreement, and the George W. Bush Administration strongly backed its full
implementation. U.S. officials welcomed the end to the IRA’s armed campaign in 2005 and the implementation. U.S. officials welcomed the end to the IRA’s armed campaign in 2005 and the
restoration of the devolved government in 2007. restoration of the devolved government in 2007.
The Obama Administration remained engaged in the peace process. In October 2009, then-U.S. The Obama Administration remained engaged in the peace process. In October 2009, then-U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Northern Ireland, addressed the Assembly, and urged Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Northern Ireland, addressed the Assembly, and urged
Northern Ireland’s leaders to reach an agreement on devolving policing and justice powers. In Northern Ireland’s leaders to reach an agreement on devolving policing and justice powers. In
February 2010, President Obama welcomed the resulting Hillsborough Agreement. In June 2013, February 2010, President Obama welcomed the resulting Hillsborough Agreement. In June 2013,
President Obama visited Northern Ireland and noted that the United States would always “stand President Obama visited Northern Ireland and noted that the United States would always “stand
by” Northern Ireland.by” Northern Ireland.~~106~~108 The Obama Administration welcomed the conclusion of both the 2014 The Obama Administration welcomed the conclusion of both the 2014
Stormont House Agreement and the 2015 Fresh Start Agreement. Stormont House Agreement and the 2015 Fresh Start Agreement.
Like its predecessors, the Trump Administration offered support and encouragement to Northern Like its predecessors, the Trump Administration offered support and encouragement to Northern
Ireland. In November 2017, a U.S. State Department spokesperson expressed regret at the Ireland. In November 2017, a U.S. State Department spokesperson expressed regret at the
impasse in discussions to restore Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions and asserted that impasse in discussions to restore Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions and asserted that
the United States remained “ready to support efforts that ensure full implementation of the Good the United States remained “ready to support efforts that ensure full implementation of the Good
Friday Agreement and subsequent follow-on cross-party agreements.”Friday Agreement and subsequent follow-on cross-party agreements.”~~107~~109 In March 2020, In March 2020,
President Trump appointed his former acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney as U.S. special envoy President Trump appointed his former acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney as U.S. special envoy
to Northern Ireland.to Northern Ireland.~~108~~110
President Biden has close ties to Ireland and is a long-standing supporter of the Northern Ireland President Biden has close ties to Ireland and is a long-standing supporter of the Northern Ireland
peace process. In March 2021, President Biden reiterated strong U.S. support for the Good Friday peace process. In March 2021, President Biden reiterated strong U.S. support for the Good Friday
Agreement during annual St. Patrick’s Day meetings with officials from the Republic of Ireland Agreement during annual St. Patrick’s Day meetings with officials from the Republic of Ireland
and Northern Ireland. A joint U.S.-Irish statement asserted that the two governments are and Northern Ireland. A joint U.S.-Irish statement asserted that the two governments are
“unequivocally committed” to the 1998 accord, which has served as “the bedrock of peace, “unequivocally committed” to the 1998 accord, which has served as “the bedrock of peace,
stability, and prosperity in Northern Ireland.”stability, and prosperity in Northern Ireland.”~~109~~111 President Biden also underlined the ongoing U.S. President Biden also underlined the ongoing U.S.
commitment to the Northern Ireland peace process during his visit to the United Kingdom in June commitment to the Northern Ireland peace process during his visit to the United Kingdom in June
2021. A joint U.S.-UK statement noted, “It took a deep partnership between the UK, Ireland, and 2021. A joint U.S.-UK statement noted, “It took a deep partnership between the UK, Ireland, and
the U.S. to support the people of Northern Ireland in bringing the Troubles to an end, and it will the U.S. to support the people of Northern Ireland in bringing the Troubles to an end, and it will
take a continued and ongoing partnership to advance and safeguard Northern Ireland’s stability take a continued and ongoing partnership to advance and safeguard Northern Ireland’s stability
and prosperity into the future.”and prosperity into the future.”~~110~~112
Many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace process for Many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace process for
decades. Congressional hearings have focused on the implementation of the Good Friday decades. Congressional hearings have focused on the implementation of the Good Friday

~~106~~108 As quoted in BBC News, “G8 Summit: U.S. Will Stand by Northern Ireland, Says Obama,” June 17, 2013. As quoted in BBC News, “G8 Summit: U.S. Will Stand by Northern Ireland, Says Obama,” June 17, 2013.
~~107~~109 U.S. Department of State, Office of the Spokesperson, “Statement on Northern Ireland Power-Sharing Talks,” U.S. Department of State, Office of the Spokesperson, “Statement on Northern Ireland Power-Sharing Talks,”
November 1, 2017. November 1, 2017.
~~108~~110 Mulvaney resigned as special envoy in January 2021. Mulvaney resigned as special envoy in January 2021.
~~109~~111 White House, “Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Martin of Ireland Before Vitual Bilateral Meeting,” White House, “Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Martin of Ireland Before Vitual Bilateral Meeting,”
March 17, 2021; White House, “Joint Statement by President Joe Biden and Taoiseach Micheál Martin,” March 17, March 17, 2021; White House, “Joint Statement by President Joe Biden and Taoiseach Micheál Martin,” March 17,
2021. 2021.
~~110~~112 White House, “Joint Statement on the Visit to the United Kingdom of the Honorable Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President White House, “Joint Statement on the Visit to the United Kingdom of the Honorable Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President
of the United States of America at the Invitation of the Rt. Hon. Boris Johnson, MP, the Prime Minister of the United of the United States of America at the Invitation of the Rt. Hon. Boris Johnson, MP, the Prime Minister of the United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,” June 10, 2021. Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,” June 10, 2021.
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Agreement, policing reforms, and human rights in Northern Ireland. Some Members have been Agreement, policing reforms, and human rights in Northern Ireland. Some Members have been
interested in the status of interested in the status of investigations and public inquiries into several past murders in Northern Ireland in which public inquiries into several past murders in Northern Ireland in which
collusion between the security forces and paramilitary groups is suspected—including the 1989 collusion between the security forces and paramilitary groups is suspected—including the 1989
slaying of Belfast attorney Patrick Finucane and the 1997 killing of Raymond slaying of Belfast attorney Patrick Finucane and the 1997 killing of Raymond McCord, Jr. In January 2022, H.Res. 888 was introduced, commemorating the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday and calling for justice for the victims and their families; the resolution also asserts opposition to “any attempt” by the UK government to “implement amnesty or statute of limitation laws that would end or inhibit investigations and prosecutions of crimes committed during the Troubles~~McCord, Jr. Most~~
~~recently, on May 5, 2021, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe,~~
~~Energy, the Environment and Cyber held a hearing titled “Reaffirming the Good Friday~~
~~Agreement~~.” Some Members of Congress have urged President Biden to appoint a new special .” Some Members of Congress have urged President Biden to appoint a new special
envoy to Northern Ireland to protect the gains of the peace process in light of recent tensions.envoy to Northern Ireland to protect the gains of the peace process in light of recent tensions.~~111~~113
On the economic front, the United States is a key trading partner and an important source of On the economic front, the United States is a key trading partner and an important source of
investment for Northern Ireland. According to statistics from the Northern Ireland Executive, in investment for Northern Ireland. According to statistics from the Northern Ireland Executive, in
2017, exports to the United States accounted for 17% of total Northern Ireland exports, and 2017, exports to the United States accounted for 17% of total Northern Ireland exports, and
imports from the United States accounted for 10% of total Northern Ireland imports. Foreign imports from the United States accounted for 10% of total Northern Ireland imports. Foreign
direct investment by U.S.-based companies totaled £1.8 billion (about $2.5 billion) between 2008 direct investment by U.S.-based companies totaled £1.8 billion (about $2.5 billion) between 2008
and 2018.and 2018.~~112~~114 Between 2009 and 2011, a special U.S. economic envoy to Northern Ireland worked Between 2009 and 2011, a special U.S. economic envoy to Northern Ireland worked
to further economic ties between the United States and Northern Ireland and to underpin the to further economic ties between the United States and Northern Ireland and to underpin the
peace process by promoting economic prosperity. peace process by promoting economic prosperity.
Views on Brexit and Northern Ireland
In contrast to President Trump’s support for Brexit, President Biden has maintained a skeptical In contrast to President Trump’s support for Brexit, President Biden has maintained a skeptical
view of Brexit since his time as Vice President in the Obama Administration. During the 2020 view of Brexit since his time as Vice President in the Obama Administration. During the 2020
U.S. presidential election campaign, then-candidate Biden stressed that Brexit must not U.S. presidential election campaign, then-candidate Biden stressed that Brexit must not
undermine the Good Friday Agreement or jeopardize the open border between Northern Ireland undermine the Good Friday Agreement or jeopardize the open border between Northern Ireland
and Ireland. Biden Administration officials have noted concerns about rising Brexit-related and Ireland. Biden Administration officials have noted concerns about rising Brexit-related
tensions in Northern Ireland and reiterated the need to protect the gains from the peace process.tensions in Northern Ireland and reiterated the need to protect the gains from the peace process.~~113~~115
The Biden Administration also has conveyed U.S. support for the Northern Ireland protocol. The Biden Administration also has conveyed U.S. support for the Northern Ireland protocol.~~114~~116
U.S. officials note that the Administration views the protocol as “a way to manage the practical U.S. officials note that the Administration views the protocol as “a way to manage the practical
challenges around the EU single market while preventing a return of a hard border” on the island challenges around the EU single market while preventing a return of a hard border” on the island
of Ireland. At the same time, Administration officials assert that the current difficulties in of Ireland. At the same time, Administration officials assert that the current difficulties in
implementing the protocol are trade issues for the UK and the EU to resolve and that President implementing the protocol are trade issues for the UK and the EU to resolve and that President
Biden “is interested in having strong relations with both the UK and the EU.”Biden “is interested in having strong relations with both the UK and the EU.”~~115~~117 In May 2021, In May 2021,
during a visit to London, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged both the UK and the EU during a visit to London, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged both the UK and the EU
~~“to prioritize political and economic stability in Northern Ireland” in implementing the post-~~
~~Brexit arrangements for the region.116~~

~~111~~113 Suzanne Lynch, “US Politicians Urge Biden to Appoint Northern Ireland Envoy,” Suzanne Lynch, “US Politicians Urge Biden to Appoint Northern Ireland Envoy,” Irish Times, May 13, 2021. , May 13, 2021.
~~112~~114 Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Trade in Goods Data Analysis Northern Ireland – USA (2015-2017), ,
June 2018; Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, June 2018; Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland Trade and Investment Patterns, October 2, , October 2,
2018. 2018.
~~113~~115 Patrick Wintour, “Biden and Pelosi Warn UK Over Risking Good Friday Agreement,” Patrick Wintour, “Biden and Pelosi Warn UK Over Risking Good Friday Agreement,” Guardian, September 16, , September 16,
2020; George Parker and Katrina Manson, “Joe Biden Warns Boris Johnson Not to Let Brexit Upend Northern Ireland 2020; George Parker and Katrina Manson, “Joe Biden Warns Boris Johnson Not to Let Brexit Upend Northern Ireland
Peace Process,” Peace Process,” Financial Times, November 9, 2020; , November 9, 2020; BBC News, “G7 Summit: Don’t Imperil NI Peace, Biden to Warn UK and “G7 Summit: Don’t Imperil NI Peace, Biden to Warn UK and
~~EU,” BBC News,~~ EU,” June 9, 2021; Jules Darmamin, Shawn Pogatchnik, and Emilio Casalicchio, “US Reprimands UK June 9, 2021; Jules Darmamin, Shawn Pogatchnik, and Emilio Casalicchio, “US Reprimands UK
Over Northern Ireland Protocol Row,” Over Northern Ireland Protocol Row,” Politico, June 10, 2021. , June 10, 2021.
~~114~~116 See, for example, the White House, “Readout of Vice President Kamala Harris Meeting with First Minister Arlene See, for example, the White House, “Readout of Vice President Kamala Harris Meeting with First Minister Arlene
Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill of Northern Ireland,” March 17, 2021. Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill of Northern Ireland,” March 17, 2021.
~~115~~ 117 White House, “Background Press Call by Senior Administration Officials on President Biden’s Upcoming Virtual White House, “Background Press Call by Senior Administration Officials on President Biden’s Upcoming Virtual
Bilateral with Ireland,” March 17, 2021.Bilateral with Ireland,” March 17, 2021.
~~116 U.S. Department of State, Secretary Antony J. Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab at a Joint Press~~
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“to prioritize political and economic stability in Northern Ireland” in implementing the post-Brexit arrangements for the region.118 During President Biden’s June 2021 visit to the UK, news reports indicate he offered support for During President Biden’s June 2021 visit to the UK, news reports indicate he offered support for
a possible way to ease some of the trade challenges posed by the Northern Ireland protocol. a possible way to ease some of the trade challenges posed by the Northern Ireland protocol.
President Biden reportedly sought to assure Prime Minister Johnson and UK officials that a President Biden reportedly sought to assure Prime Minister Johnson and UK officials that a
temporary UK-EU agreement on food standards—aimed at reducing protocol-related trade temporary UK-EU agreement on food standards—aimed at reducing protocol-related trade
difficulties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK—would not be a barrier to a separate difficulties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK—would not be a barrier to a separate
U.S.-UK free trade deal in the future.U.S.-UK free trade deal in the future.~~117~~119 Negotiations on a post-Brexit U.S.-UK free trade Negotiations on a post-Brexit U.S.-UK free trade
agreement began during the Trump Administration, but the Biden Administration has not resumed agreement began during the Trump Administration, but the Biden Administration has not resumed
these talks to date and has not indicated whether it will do so. It would likely take several years to these talks to date and has not indicated whether it will do so. It would likely take several years to
conclude any future U.S.-UK trade deal.conclude any future U.S.-UK trade deal.~~118~~120 U.S. officials reportedly are monitoring the ongoing U.S. officials reportedly are monitoring the ongoing
UK-EU negotiations on the Northern Ireland protocol. In January 2022, U.S. Trade UK-EU negotiations on the Northern Ireland protocol. In January 2022, U.S. Trade
Representative Katherine Tai asserted that the United States continues to encourage both the UK Representative Katherine Tai asserted that the United States continues to encourage both the UK
and the EU “to work in good faith” to find “durable and peaceful” solutions.and the EU “to work in good faith” to find “durable and peaceful” solutions.~~119~~121
Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in Brexit’s implications for Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in Brexit’s implications for
Northern Ireland. Although many Members back, in principle, a future U.S.-UK free trade Northern Ireland. Although many Members back, in principle, a future U.S.-UK free trade
agreement, some Members have tied their support to protecting the peace process. In April 2019, agreement, some Members have tied their support to protecting the peace process. In April 2019,
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated there would be “no chance whatsoever” for a U.S.-UK trade House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated there would be “no chance whatsoever” for a U.S.-UK trade
agreement if Brexit were to weaken the Northern Ireland peace process.agreement if Brexit were to weaken the Northern Ireland peace process.~~120~~
122 In December 2019, the House passed H.Res. 585, reaffirming support for the Good Friday In December 2019, the House passed H.Res. 585, reaffirming support for the Good Friday
Agreement in light of Brexit and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade agreement and other Agreement in light of Brexit and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade agreement and other
U.S.-UK bilateral agreements must include conditions to uphold the peace accord. In May 2021, U.S.-UK bilateral agreements must include conditions to uphold the peace accord. In May 2021,
the Senate passed S.Res. 117, expressing support for the Good Friday Agreement and the the Senate passed S.Res. 117, expressing support for the Good Friday Agreement and the
Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade or other bilateral Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade or other bilateral
agreements must “take into account” whether obligations in the Good Friday Agreement are agreements must “take into account” whether obligations in the Good Friday Agreement are
being met. Some Members of Congress also have expressed concerns about the UK possibly being met. Some Members of Congress also have expressed concerns about the UK possibly
invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, viewing it as potentially destabilizing—both invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, viewing it as potentially destabilizing—both
politically and economically—for Northern Ireland.politically and economically—for Northern Ireland.~~121~~123
International Fund for Ireland
The United States has provided development aid to Northern Ireland primarily through the The United States has provided development aid to Northern Ireland primarily through the
International Fund for Ireland (IFI), which was created in 1986. The UK and Irish governments International Fund for Ireland (IFI), which was created in 1986. The UK and Irish governments
established the IFI based on objectives in the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, but the IFI is an established the IFI based on objectives in the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, but the IFI is an
independent entity. It supports economic regeneration and social development projects in areas independent entity. It supports economic regeneration and social development projects in areas
~~most affected by the conflict in Northern Ireland and in the border areas of the Republic of~~
~~Ireland; in doing so, the IFI has sought to foster dialogue and reconciliation. The United States~~
~~has contributed more than $544 million since the IFI’s establishment, roughly half of total IFI~~
~~funding. The EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have provided funding for the IFI as well.~~

~~Availability,” May 3, 2021.~~
~~117~~ 118 U.S. Department of State, Secretary Antony J. Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab at a Joint Press Availability,” May 3, 2021. 119 Shawn Pogatchnik, “Ireland: UK-EU Food Safety Deal Wouldn’t Stop UK-US Trade Pact,” Shawn Pogatchnik, “Ireland: UK-EU Food Safety Deal Wouldn’t Stop UK-US Trade Pact,” Politico, June 11, 2021. , June 11, 2021.
~~118 Pan Pylas, “US Downplays Prospect of Post-Brexit Trade Deal with UK,” Associated Press, May 6, 2021.~~
~~119~~120 Also see CRS In Focus IF11123, U.S.-UK Trade Relations, by Shayerah I. Akhtar. 121 As quoted in Laura Slattery, “NI Protocol ‘Always on the Radar’ of US, Says Ambassador,” As quoted in Laura Slattery, “NI Protocol ‘Always on the Radar’ of US, Says Ambassador,” Irish Times, January , January
12, 2022. 12, 2022.
~~120~~122 Simon Carswell, “Pelosi Warns No US-UK Trade Deal if Belfast Agreement Weakened by Brexit,” Simon Carswell, “Pelosi Warns No US-UK Trade Deal if Belfast Agreement Weakened by Brexit,” Irish Times, ,
April 15, 2019. April 15, 2019.
~~121~~123 See, for example, House Foreign Affairs Committee, “Meeks, Keating, Blumenauer and Boyle Issue Statement on See, for example, House Foreign Affairs Committee, “Meeks, Keating, Blumenauer and Boyle Issue Statement on
UK’s Threat to Invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol,” press release, November 9, 2021; and Office of UK’s Threat to Invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol,” press release, November 9, 2021; and Office of
Senator Chris Murphy, “Murphy in Belfast and London Stresses Importance of Protecting Good Friday Agreement, Senator Chris Murphy, “Murphy in Belfast and London Stresses Importance of Protecting Good Friday Agreement,
Peace in the Region,” press release, November 23, 2021. Peace in the Region,” press release, November 23, 2021.
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most affected by the conflict in Northern Ireland and in the border areas of the Republic of Ireland; in doing so, the IFI has sought to foster dialogue and reconciliation. The United States has contributed more than $544 million since the IFI’s establishment, roughly half of total IFI funding. The EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have provided funding for the IFI as well. In the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. appropriations for the IFI averaged around $23 million annually; in In the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. appropriations for the IFI averaged around $23 million annually; in
the 2000s, U.S. appropriations averaged $18 million each year.the 2000s, U.S. appropriations averaged $18 million each year.~~122~~124
According to the IFI, the vast majority of projects it has supported with seed funding have been According to the IFI, the vast majority of projects it has supported with seed funding have been
located in disadvantaged areas that have suffered from high unemployment, a lack of facilities, located in disadvantaged areas that have suffered from high unemployment, a lack of facilities,
and little private sector investment. In its first two decades, IFI projects in Northern Ireland and and little private sector investment. In its first two decades, IFI projects in Northern Ireland and
the southern border counties focused on economic and business development and sectors such as the southern border counties focused on economic and business development and sectors such as
tourism, agriculture, and technology. In 2006, the IFI announced it would begin shifting its focus tourism, agriculture, and technology. In 2006, the IFI announced it would begin shifting its focus
toward projects aimed at promoting community reconciliation and overcoming past divisions. toward projects aimed at promoting community reconciliation and overcoming past divisions.
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have backed the IFI as a means Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have backed the IFI as a means
to promote economic development and encourage divided communities to work together. Support to promote economic development and encourage divided communities to work together. Support
for paramilitary and dissident groups in Northern Ireland traditionally has been strongest in for paramilitary and dissident groups in Northern Ireland traditionally has been strongest in
communities with high levels of unemployment and economic deprivation. Thus, many observers communities with high levels of unemployment and economic deprivation. Thus, many observers
have long viewed the creation of jobs and economic opportunity as a key part of resolving the have long viewed the creation of jobs and economic opportunity as a key part of resolving the
conflict in Northern Ireland and have supported the IFI as part of the peace process. conflict in Northern Ireland and have supported the IFI as part of the peace process.
Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress also have encouraged the IFI to place greater Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress also have encouraged the IFI to place greater
focus on reconciliation activities and were pleased with the IFI’s decision to do so in 2006. At the focus on reconciliation activities and were pleased with the IFI’s decision to do so in 2006. At the
same time, some critics have questioned the IFI’s effectiveness, viewing certain IFI projects as same time, some critics have questioned the IFI’s effectiveness, viewing certain IFI projects as
largely wasteful and unlikely to bridge community divides in any significant way. largely wasteful and unlikely to bridge community divides in any significant way.
In FY2011, amid the U.S. economic and budget crisis, some Members of Congress began to call In FY2011, amid the U.S. economic and budget crisis, some Members of Congress began to call
for an end to U.S. funding for the IFI as part of a raft of budget-cutting measures. Some Members for an end to U.S. funding for the IFI as part of a raft of budget-cutting measures. Some Members
asserted that U.S. contributions to the IFI were no longer necessary given Ireland and Northern asserted that U.S. contributions to the IFI were no longer necessary given Ireland and Northern
Ireland’s improved political and economic situation (relative to what it was in the 1980s). In the Ireland’s improved political and economic situation (relative to what it was in the 1980s). In the
final FY2011 continuing budget resolution (P.L. 112-10), Congress did not specify an allocation final FY2011 continuing budget resolution (P.L. 112-10), Congress did not specify an allocation
for the IFI (and has not done so in subsequent fiscal years). for the IFI (and has not done so in subsequent fiscal years).
Since FY2011, successive Administrations have allocated funds from Economic Support Fund Since FY2011, successive Administrations have allocated funds from Economic Support Fund
(ESF) resources to the IFI in the form of a grant for specific IFI activities to support peace and (ESF) resources to the IFI in the form of a grant for specific IFI activities to support peace and
reconciliation programs. The United States provided $2.5 million per year to the IFI from ESF reconciliation programs. The United States provided $2.5 million per year to the IFI from ESF
funding between FY2011 and FY2014, $750,000 per year from FY2015 to FY2019, $2 million funding between FY2011 and FY2014, $750,000 per year from FY2015 to FY2019, $2 million
for FY2020, and $2.5 million for FY2021. for FY2020, and $2.5 million for FY2021.

Author Information

Kristin Archick Kristin Archick

Specialist in European Affairs Specialist in European Affairs

~~122~~124 The Anglo-Irish Agreement Support Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-415) authorizes U.S. contributions to the International The Anglo-Irish Agreement Support Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-415) authorizes U.S. contributions to the International
Fund for Ireland. Fund for Ireland.
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