Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19
JulyAugust 20, 2021 20, 2021
Pandemic
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant effect on pandemic has had a significant effect on
labor market metrics for every Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
labor market metrics for every state, economic sector, and major demographic group in state, economic sector, and major demographic group in

the United States. This report the United States. This report provides information on unemployment rates, labor force provides information on unemployment rates, labor force
participation rates, and Paul D. Romero
participation rates, and nonfarm payrolls in the United States during the ongoing nonfarm payrolls in the United States during the ongoing
Research Assistant
pandemic. It presents CRS pandemic. It presents CRS Research Assistant analysis of overal unemployment rate trends during the analysis of overal unemployment rate trends during the

pandemic. The report first pandemic. The report first examines these trends national y, and examines these trends national y, and then at the state and at the state and
Jameson A. Carter
industrial levels. Next, it industrial levels. Next, it Isaac A. Nicchitta examines how unemployment rates varied across demographic examines how unemployment rates varied across demographic
Research Assistant
groups. The report then groups. The report then Research Assistant repeats this analysis, where appropriate, for the labor force repeats this analysis, where appropriate, for the labor force

participation rate, which participation rate, which sheds light on the size of the workforce wil ing and availablesheds light on the size of the workforce wil ing and available
Isaac A. Nicchitta
for work. The final portion of the report analyzes the impact the pandemic has had on
Research Assistant
overal employment and by sector.

Emma C. Nyhof
for work. The final portion Emma C. Nyhof of the report analyzes the impact the pandemic has had on overal employment and by Research Assistant sector. Among other findings, this report shows the following: Among other findings, this report shows the following:
Research Assistant

 In April 2020, the unemployment rate reached 14.8%—the highest rate observed  In April 2020, the unemployment rate reached 14.8%—the highest rate observed
since data since data collection began in 1948. In collection began in 1948. In JuneJuly 2021, unemployment remained 2021, unemployment remained

higher (5.higher (5.94%) than it had been in February 2020 (3.5%). %) than it had been in February 2020 (3.5%).
 The labor force participation rate declined to 60.2% in April 2020—a level not seen since the  The labor force participation rate declined to 60.2% in April 2020—a level not seen since the
early 1970s—then began a partial recovery in May 2020. The labor force participation rate was early 1970s—then began a partial recovery in May 2020. The labor force participation rate was
61.61.67% in % in JuneJuly 2021, 1. 2021, 1.87 percentage points below the level in January 2020, before the pandemic percentage points below the level in January 2020, before the pandemic
and the economic recession. and the economic recession.
 Nonfarm payrolls shed 22.1 mil ion jobs between January 2020 and April 2020, with employment  Nonfarm payrolls shed 22.1 mil ion jobs between January 2020 and April 2020, with employment
declining to 86% of its pre-recession level. In declining to 86% of its pre-recession level. In JuneJuly 2021, aggregate employment remained 2021, aggregate employment remained 6.55.4
mil ion jobs below its pre-recession level. mil ion jobs below its pre-recession level.
 The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted economic sectors disparately. The leisure and hospitality  The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted economic sectors disparately. The leisure and hospitality
sector lost the largest number of jobs since January 2020, and persons last employed in this sector sector lost the largest number of jobs since January 2020, and persons last employed in this sector
have consistently exhibited some of the highest unemployment rates throughout the pandemic. have consistently exhibited some of the highest unemployment rates throughout the pandemic.
Additional y, the education and services sector and the government sector have exhibited the Additional y, the education and services sector and the government sector have exhibited the
second and third-largest losses in jobs since January 2020, despite relatively low unemployment second and third-largest losses in jobs since January 2020, despite relatively low unemployment
rates among persons last employed in these sectors. rates among persons last employed in these sectors.
 The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted demographic groups disparately. Although al  The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted demographic groups disparately. Although al
demographic groups were affected, persons identifying as Black or Hispanic and younger demographic groups were affected, persons identifying as Black or Hispanic and younger
workers workers generallygeneral y experienced relatively high peaks in unemployment and relatively steep experienced relatively high peaks in unemployment and relatively steep
declines in labor force participation over the course of the pandemic. Additional y, persons with declines in labor force participation over the course of the pandemic. Additional y, persons with
lower educational attainment have general y experienced relatively higher unemployment rates lower educational attainment have general y experienced relatively higher unemployment rates
and lower labor force participation throughout the pandemic. and lower labor force participation throughout the pandemic.

Congressional Research Congressional Research ServiceServi ce

---

link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page 89 link to page 9 link to page link to page 9 link to page 910 link to page 11 link to page 13 link to page 14 link to page 15 link to page 17 link to page 17 link to page 19 link to page 19 link to page 20 link to page 22 link to page 23 link to page 24 link to page 25 link to page 26 link to page 27 link to page 28 link to page 7 link to page 9 link to page 10 link to page 12 link to page 14 link to page 15 link to page 16 link to page 16 link to page 17 link to page 18 link to page 19 link to page 20 link to page 21 link to page 22 link to page 23 link to page 24 link to page 25 link to page 11 link to page 13 link to page 14 link to page 15 link to page 17 link to page 17 link to page 19 link to page 19 link to page 20 link to page 22 link to page 23 link to page 24 link to page 25 link to page 26 link to page 27 link to page 28 link to page 7 link to page 9 link to page 10 link to page 12 link to page 14 link to page 15 link to page 16 link to page 16 link to page 17 link to page 18 link to page 19 link to page 20 link to page 21 link to page 22 link to page 23 link to page 24 link to page 25 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 2
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 45
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 5
Unemployment Rates by State ..................................................................................... 56
Unemployment Rates by Sector ................................................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers.................................................... 9
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ........................................................................ 10
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity ....................................... 11
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................ 13
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................... 13
COVID-19 Recession: Trends in Labor Force Participation ................................................. 15
Labor Force Participation Rate by Age and Sex ............................................................ 15
Labor Force Participation Rate by Race and Ethnicity ................................................... 16
Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment ............................................. 18
COVID-19 Recession: Nonfarm Payrolls .......................................................................... 19
Trends in Employment in the Private Sector ................................................................ 20
Trends in Employment by Government Sector ............................................................. 21
Data Limitations and Caveats.......................................................................................... 22
COVID 19 Pandemic-Related Data Issues ................................................................... 23
General Data Caveats ............................................................................................... 24

Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 3
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 5
Figure 3. State Unemployment Rate ................................................................................... 6
Figure 4. Unemployment Rates by Sector ........................................................................... 8
Figure 5. Unemployment Rates for Part- and Full-Time Workers .......................................... 10
Figure 6. Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age................................................................. 11
Figure 7. Unemployment Rates by Racial Group................................................................ 12
Figure 8. Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin ............................................................ 12
Figure 9. Unemployment Rates by Education .................................................................... 13
Figure 10. Historical Labor Force Participation Rate .......................................................... 14
Figure 11. Labor Force Participation Rate During COVID-19 Pandemic................................ 15
Figure 12. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex ................................................. 16
Figure 13. Labor Force Participation Rate by Race ............................................................. 17
Figure 14. Labor Force Participation Rate by Hispanic Origin .............................................. 18
Figure 15. Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment ................................... 19
Figure 16. Change in Employment by Sector ..................................................................... 20
Figure 17. Job Loss During the COVID-19 Recession in the Private SectorChange in Employment in the Private Sector ...................................................... 21
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

---

link to page 26 link to page 28 link to page 26 link to page 28 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 18. Job Loss During the COVID-19 PandemicChange in Employment in the Public Sector ....................................................... 22

Contacts
Author Information ....................................................................................................... 24


Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared February 2020 as the start of the most declared February 2020 as the start of the most
recent economic downturn, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 recent economic downturn, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1
This expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely This expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This rise in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This rise in unemployment
was caused by an unprecedented loss of 22.1 mil ion jobs between January 2020 and April 2020. was caused by an unprecedented loss of 22.1 mil ion jobs between January 2020 and April 2020.
Many individuals left the labor force over this period, and by April 2020 the labor force Many individuals left the labor force over this period, and by April 2020 the labor force
participation rate3 declined to 60.2%, a level not seen since the early 1970s. participation rate3 declined to 60.2%, a level not seen since the early 1970s.
In July 2021, the NBER declared that the recession that was triggered at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic ended in April 2020.4 This makes the COVID-19 recession the shortest recession on record. This deterioration in the U.S. labor market corresponded with various advisory or mandated stay- This deterioration in the U.S. labor market corresponded with various advisory or mandated stay-
at-home orders implemented in response to the at-home orders implemented in response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)COVID-19 pandemic pandemic
and other pandemic-related factors affecting U.S. demand.and other pandemic-related factors affecting U.S. demand.45 States and localities implemented States and localities implemented
these these orders5orders6 to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 after it was declared a pandemic disease by the to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 after it was declared a pandemic disease by the
World HealthWorld Health Organization on Organization on March 11, 2020.March 11, 2020.67
This report discusses the state of the U.S. labor market using data from the Bureau of Labor This report discusses the state of the U.S. labor market using data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). The three primary sources are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Local Statistics (BLS). The three primary sources are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Local
Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES)
program. In addition to the usual caveats about estimates (see the “General Data Caveats” program. In addition to the usual caveats about estimates (see the “General Data Caveats”
section), there were additional data chal enges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see the section), there were additional data chal enges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see the
“COVID-19 Pandemic-Related Data Issues” section). The pandemic led to lower survey response “COVID-19 Pandemic-Related Data Issues” section). The pandemic led to lower survey response
rates by businesses and households. Additional y, the BLS detected an error in certain agency rates by businesses and households. Additional y, the BLS detected an error in certain agency
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.7 Labor
force participation rates were not affected by this categorization error and met BLS standards of
accuracy, despite depressed response rates.8 BLS also identified an error in the nonfarm
8 Labor
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractionscontrac tions, see , see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessionsfaq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessionsfaq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief . Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief .
2 T he Great Recession was a particularly long recession, 2 T he Great Recession was a particularly long recession, characterizedcharact erized by a steady and large increase in unemployment by a steady and large increase in unemployment
and unprecedented decreases in labor force participation. T he unemployment rates observed during the Great and unprecedented decreases in labor force participation. T he unemployment rates observed during the Great
Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980s. For more on labor force metrics during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980s. For more on labor force metrics during the Great
Recession see CRS Report R45330, Recession see CRS Report R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte. , by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
3 Defined as the percentage of persons in 3 Defined as the percentage of persons in t hethe overall adult population who either overall adult population who either haveh ave a job or are looking for a job. a job or are looking for a job.
4 4 For more information on the determination of this end date, see https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021. 5 See CRS Insight IN11388, See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
56 For a list of state-level stay-at-home orders and estimates of the impact of these orders on risk mitigation, see Amanda For a list of state-level stay-at-home orders and estimates of the impact of these orders on risk mitigation, see Amanda
Moreland, Christine Herlihy, and Michael A. T ynan et al., Moreland, Christine Herlihy, and Michael A. T ynan et al., Tim ing of State and Territorial COVID-19 Stay-at-Hom e
Orders and Changes in Population Movem ent, Centers for Disease Control, Morbidity and , Centers for Disease Control, Morbidity and MortalityMortalit y Weekly Report Weekly Report
Vol. 69 No. 35, Washington, DC, September 4, 2020, pp. 1198 -1203, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/Vol. 69 No. 35, Washington, DC, September 4, 2020, pp. 1198 -1203, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/
mm6935a2.htm?s_cid=mm6935a2_w. mm6935a2.htm?s_cid=mm6935a2_w.
6 7 World Health Organization, World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report 51, March 11, 2020, p. 1, , Situation Report 51, March 11, 2020, p. 1,
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf.
78 See CRS Insight IN11456, See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
8 For BLS impact summaries of COVID-19 on these measures, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-
pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-release.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

1 1

---

link to page 7 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

force participation rates were not affected by this categorization error and met BLS standards of accuracy, despite depressed response rates.9 BLS also identified an error in the nonfarm enrollment data processing system wherein some businesses were improperly included in enrollment data processing system wherein some businesses were improperly included in
estimates, although BLS has since determined the impacts of this error were insignificant. estimates, although BLS has since determined the impacts of this error were insignificant.910
Many aspects of the labor market have recovered substantial y since the onset of the pandemic. Many aspects of the labor market have recovered substantial y since the onset of the pandemic.
The unemployment rate in The unemployment rate in JuneJuly 2021 was 5. 2021 was 5.94% and was % and was 8.99.4 percentage points below its most percentage points below its most
recent peak in April 2020 (14.8%). Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey recent peak in April 2020 (14.8%). Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
(JOLTS) administered by BLS also point to a recovery in labor market conditions. Three (JOLTS) administered by BLS also point to a recovery in labor market conditions. Three
procyclical procyclical metrics10metrics11 tracked by the JOLTS—job openings, hires, and tracked by the JOLTS—job openings, hires, and quits11quits12—are at some of —are at some of
their highest levels since BLS began tracking these data in 2000. In their highest levels since BLS began tracking these data in 2000. In MayJune 2021, JOLTS reported 2021, JOLTS reported
that job openings were at that job openings were at 9.210.1 mil ion, hires were at mil ion, hires were at 5.96.7 mil ion, and the number of quits was at mil ion, and the number of quits was at 3.9 3.6
mil ion,mil ion, whereas in Aprilwhereas in April 2020 job openings were at 5.4 mil ion, hires were at 3.9 2020 job openings were at 5.4 mil ion, hires were at 3.9 mil ionmillion, and the , and the
number of quits was at 2.1 mil ion. Additional analysis of the JOLTS data is outside of the scope number of quits was at 2.1 mil ion. Additional analysis of the JOLTS data is outside of the scope
of this report. While certain labor market statistics are pointing to a recovery in market of this report. While certain labor market statistics are pointing to a recovery in market
conditions, the report wil show how many key labor market statistics have yet to reach their pre-conditions, the report wil show how many key labor market statistics have yet to reach their pre-
pandemic levels. pandemic levels.
This report general y finds the following: This report general y finds the following:
 The unemployment rate  The unemployment rate peaked12peaked13 in April 2020, at a level not seen since data in April 2020, at a level not seen since data
collection started in 1948, before declining to a level in collection started in 1948, before declining to a level in JuneJuly 2021 that stil 2021 that stil
remained remained 2.41.9 percentage points above the pre-recession rate observed in January percentage points above the pre-recession rate observed in January
2020. 2020.
 In April 2020, the labor force participation rate declined to 60.2%, a level not  In April 2020, the labor force participation rate declined to 60.2%, a level not
seen since the early 1970s. Labor force participation has improved since then to seen since the early 1970s. Labor force participation has improved since then to
61.61.67%, which remains 1.%, which remains 1.87 percentage points below its pre-recession level. percentage points below its pre-recession level.
 Nonfarm payrolls shed 22.1 mil ion jobs between January 2020 and April 2020.  Nonfarm payrolls shed 22.1 mil ion jobs between January 2020 and April 2020.
In In JuneJuly 2021, aggregate employment remained 2021, aggregate employment remained 6.55.4 mil ion mil ion jobs below its pre-jobs below its pre-
recession level. recession level.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The most recent Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The most recent
recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was an abrupt and exogenous shock to the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was an abrupt and exogenous shock to the
economy. The pandemic resulted in rapidly implemented efforts to limit contact among economy. The pandemic resulted in rapidly implemented efforts to limit contact among
individuals and many shutdown orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the individuals and many shutdown orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the
most recent recession differ from those in prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during
prior recessions rose relatively gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then
peaked.

9 9 For BLS impact summaries of COVID-19 on these measures, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-release.htm. 10 For a description of this error, see https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2021/ces-sample-rotation-issue-caused-by- For a description of this error, see https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2021/ces-sample-rotation-issue-caused-by-
pandemic-related-challenges-to-enrollment.htm. pandemic-related-challenges-to-enrollment.htm.
1011 Defined here as an economic metric that Defined here as an economic metric that increases in quantity during an economic expansion and decreases in increases in quantity during an economic expansion and decreases in
quantity during a recession. quantity during a recession.
1112 Job openings are defined as the number of positions that are defined as the number of positions that are open on the last business day of the reference month. are open on the last business day of the reference month.
Hires include all additions to an employer’s payroll during the entire reference month . include all additions to an employer’s payroll during the entire reference month . Quits are defined as the number are defined as the number
of workers who left their jobs voluntarily, with retirements and transfers of workers who left their jobs voluntarily, with retirements and transfers excludedex cluded. For more information on these . For more information on these
metrics, see https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.toc.htm. metrics, see https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.toc.htm.
1213 T hroughout this report, T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and JuneJuly 2021. It 2021. It
does not account for months outside this range. does not account for months outside this range.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

2 2

---

link to page 7 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

most recent recession differ from those in prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The most recent recession exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the unemployment rate The most recent recession exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the unemployment rate
(10.3 percentage points) from February to April 2020.(10.3 percentage points) from February to April 2020.13 According to the National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER),14 In July 2021, the NBER declared that the most recent recession the most recent recession endedlasted two months, ending in April 2020. in April 2020.1415 Following the end Following the end
of the recession, the of the recession, the unemployment rate declined rapidly (6.4 percentage points from April 2020 to August 2020) rate declined rapidly (6.4 percentage points from April 2020 to August 2020)
as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines, as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines, the the
unemployment rate remains at an elevated level (5.unemployment rate remains at an elevated level (5.94%) compared to February 2020. The share of %) compared to February 2020. The share of
workers on furlough has declined since peaking in April 2020, while the share of permanently workers on furlough has declined since peaking in April 2020, while the share of permanently
laid off workers has steadily increased.laid off workers has steadily increased.1516 Although economic projections have general y improved Although economic projections have general y improved
since early in the recession, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has since early in the recession, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that projected that
unemployment rates over 5.0% wil persist through 2021.unemployment rates over 5.0% wil persist through 2021.1617
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 1948 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS14000000 extracted Series LNS14000000 extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research . .
The unemployment rate’s relatively rapid decline since April 2020 may have been aided by laws The unemployment rate’s relatively rapid decline since April 2020 may have been aided by laws
passed in response to both the recession and the pandemic. Congress has passed three rounds of passed in response to both the recession and the pandemic. Congress has passed three rounds of
stimulus checks for families,17 expanded nutrition assistance programs,18 and enacted increases in

1314 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the most recent recession compared to the For information on the differences between the congressional response to the most recent recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID -19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
1415 For more information on the determination of this end date, see https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating- For more information on the determination of this end date, see https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-
committee-announcement-july-19-2021. committee-announcement-july-19-2021.
1516 CRS analysis of BLS data, which can be found at https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab11.htm. Workers on CRS analysis of BLS data, which can be found at https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab11.htm. Workers on
temporary layoff declined from 18.0 million in April 2020 to 1.temporary layoff declined from 18.0 million in April 2020 to 1.82 million in million in JuneJuly 2021 as the number of permanent job 2021 as the number of permanent job
losers increased from 2.6 million in April 2020 to losers increased from 2.6 million in April 2020 to 4.03.7 million in million in June July 2021. 2021.
16 17 For CBO’s 10-year economic projections of unemployment rates, as of July 2021, see https://www.cbo.gov/about/ For CBO’s 10-year economic projections of unemployment rates, as of July 2021, see https://www.cbo.gov/about/
products/budget -economic-data#4. products/budget -economic-data#4.
17 For more information, see CRS Insight IN11605, COVID-19 and Direct Payments: Comparison of First and Second
Round of “Stimulus Checks” to the Third Round in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA; P.L. 117 -2), by
Margot L. Crandall-Hollick.
18 For more information, see CRS Report R46681, USDA Nutrition Assistance Programs: Response to the COVID-19
Congressional Research Service

3

---

link to page 9 Congressional Research Service 3 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

refundable tax credits (which are not scheduled to be disbursed until July 2021).19 These
provisions increase families’ disposable income and those that have taken effect may have
increasedstimulus checks for families,18 expanded nutrition assistance programs,19 and enacted increases in refundable tax credits (which began being disbursed in July 2021).20 The combined effect of these provisions is expected to increase families’ disposable income and, in turn, consumer spending, enabling businesses to better endure the recession; a 2020 study consumer spending, enabling businesses to better endure the recession; a 2020 study
from the NBER found that higher replacement rates of lost wages led to higher consumer from the NBER found that higher replacement rates of lost wages led to higher consumer
spending.spending.2021 Congress also enacted the Paycheck Protection Program, which provides loans that Congress also enacted the Paycheck Protection Program, which provides loans that
can be fully forgiven if the majority of can be fully forgiven if the majority of funds borrowed are used to maintain payrolls.funds borrowed are used to maintain payrolls.2122
Additional y, Congress expanded Unemployment Insurance (UI) program benefits and extended Additional y, Congress expanded Unemployment Insurance (UI) program benefits and extended
length of coverage.length of coverage.2223 Some say this policy could directly lead to the unemployment rate Some say this policy could directly lead to the unemployment rate
remaining above what it would be otherwise because past research has shown UI extensions can remaining above what it would be otherwise because past research has shown UI extensions can
extend the duration of unemployment for a relatively smal segment of unemployed workers.extend the duration of unemployment for a relatively smal segment of unemployed workers.23 As
of the cover date of this report, 25 states have announced plans to opt out of expanded UI before
its expiration in September 2021. Many 24 Recently, 26 states announced their intention to terminate their agreements to pay COVID-19 UI benefits. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labor as of August 4, 2021, in two of these states (Indiana and Maryland) state courts have issued temporary orders prohibiting withdrawal from COVID-19 UI programs. There have also been media reports of additional legal chal enges in other states that have announced terminations of COVID-19 UI agreements. Many of these states have cited the potential work disincentives of these states have cited the potential work disincentives
of expanded UI as one reason for ending the program.of expanded UI as one reason for ending the program.2425 A recent study examining data from April A recent study examining data from April
to July 2020 found that while UI benefit increases reduced employment by 0.2% to 0.4%, overal to July 2020 found that while UI benefit increases reduced employment by 0.2% to 0.4%, overal
spending by recipients increased spending by recipients increased by 2.0% to 2.6%.by 2.0% to 2.6%.2526 The authors note that while these expansions The authors note that while these expansions
directly decreased employment among recipients, that increased spending among recipients may directly decreased employment among recipients, that increased spending among recipients may
have insulated the labor market have insulated the labor market from further deterioration. from further deterioration.
These (and other) policies may have affected unemployment rate trends in several ways; however, These (and other) policies may have affected unemployment rate trends in several ways; however,
the causal impact of policy choices on the unemployment rate is beyond the scope of this report. the causal impact of policy choices on the unemployment rate is beyond the scope of this report.
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5.0% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (see Figure 2). The
unemployment rate did not peak until October 2009 when it hit 10.0%. In the most recent
recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February 2020, to 4.4% in March 2020,
and then peaked at a high of 14.8% in the final month of the brief economic trough (April 2020).
Since then, the unemployment rate fel to 5.9% in June 2021. The increase in the unemployment

18 For more information, see CRS Insight IN11605, COVID-19 and Direct Payments: Comparison of First and Second Round of “Stimulus Checks” to the Third Round in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA; P.L. 117 -2), by Margot L. Crandall-Hollick. 19 For more information, see CRS Report R46681, USDA Nutrition Assistance Programs: Response to the COVID-19 Pandem ic, by Randy Alison Aussenberg and Kara Clifford Billings. , by Randy Alison Aussenberg and Kara Clifford Billings.
1920 For more information, see CRS Report R46680, For more information, see CRS Report R46680, The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA; P.L. 117 -2): Title
IX, Subtitle G—Tax Provisions Related to Prom oting Econom ic Security, by Molly F. Sherlock, Margot L. Crandall-, by Molly F. Sherlock, Margot L. Crandall-
Hollick, and Jane G. Gravelle. Hollick, and Jane G. Gravelle.
2021 Miguel G. Casado, Britta Glennon, and Julia Lane et al., Miguel G. Casado, Britta Glennon, and Julia Lane et al., The Effect of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from COVID-19, ,
NBER, Working Paper 27576, Cambridge, MA, August 2020, https://www.nber.org/papers/w27576. For more on this NBER, Working Paper 27576, Cambridge, MA, August 2020, https://www.nber.org/papers/w27576. For more on this
topic and theories of recessionary policy, also see CRS Report R46460, topic and theories of recessionary policy, also see CRS Report R46460, Fiscal Policy and Recovery from the COVID-
19 Recession, by Jane G. Gravelle and Donald J. Marples. , by Jane G. Gravelle and Donald J. Marples.
2122 For more information, see CRS Report R46397, For more information, see CRS Report R46397, SBA Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Loan Forgiveness: In
Brief, by Robert Jay Dilger and Sean Lowry. , by Robert Jay Dilger and Sean Lowry.
2223 For more information, see CRS Report R46687, For more information, see CRS Report R46687, Current Status of Unemployment Insurance (UI) Benefits:
Perm anent-Law Program s and COVID-19 Pandem ic Response, by Julie M. Whittaker and Katelin P. Isaacs. , by Julie M. Whittaker and Katelin P. Isaacs.
2324 T he study referenced here showed that UI extensions during the Great Recession increased the unemployment rate of T he study referenced here showed that UI extensions during the Great Recession increased the unemployment rate of
0.4 percentage points. Henry S. Farber and Robert G. Valletta, 0.4 percentage points. Henry S. Farber and Robert G. Valletta, Do Extended Unem ploym ent Benefits Lengthen
Unem ploym ent Spells? Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market, NBER, Working Paper 19048, , NBER, Working Paper 19048,
Cambridge, MA, May 2013, https://www.nber.org/papers/w19048. Cambridge, MA, May 2013, https://www.nber.org/papers/w19048.
2425 For more information, see CRS Insight IN11679, For more information, see CRS Insight IN11679, States Opting Out of COVID-19 Unemployment Insurance (UI)
Agreem ents, by Julie M. Whittaker and Katelin P. Isaacs. , by Julie M. Whittaker and Katelin P. Isaacs.
2526 Peter Ganong et al., Peter Ganong et al., Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from
Adm inistrative Micro Data, Becker Friedman Institute, Working Paper No. 2021-19, Chicago, IL, February 2021, , Becker Friedman Institute, Working Paper No. 2021-19, Chicago, IL, February 2021,
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/BFI_WP_2021-19.pdf. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/BFI_WP_2021-19.pdf.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

4 4

---

link to page link to page 109 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5.0% in December 2007 (the start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (see Figure 2). The unemployment rate, however, did not peak until October 2009 when it hit 10.0%. In the most recent recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February 2020, to 4.4% in March 2020, and then peaked at a high of 14.8% in the final month of the recession (April 2020). Since then, the unemployment rate has fal en to 5.4% in July 2021. The increase in the unemployment
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

rate between March and April 2020 represents the quickest month-over-month increase in the rate between March and April 2020 represents the quickest month-over-month increase in the
unemployment rate and the April 2020 peak represents the highest overal unemployment rate unemployment rate and the April 2020 peak represents the highest overal unemployment rate
since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.2627 The decline in the unemployment rate of 6.4 The decline in the unemployment rate of 6.4
percentage points between April 2020 and August 2020 represented the largest decline in the percentage points between April 2020 and August 2020 represented the largest decline in the
unemployment rate over a four-month period since the data collection unemployment rate over a four-month period since the data collection began.began.
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, November 2004 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS14000000 extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS14000000 extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, economic sector, The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, economic sector,
and major demographic group. During the most recent recession, unemployment rates and major demographic group. During the most recent recession, unemployment rates
disproportionately increased among economic sectors delivering in-person services. Some disproportionately increased among economic sectors delivering in-person services. Some
demographic groups are overrepresented in such sectors, contributing to higher unemployment demographic groups are overrepresented in such sectors, contributing to higher unemployment
rates for those workers. rates for those workers.27
Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January 2020 to May 2021 (the
state-level data for June 2021 have not been released as of the cover date of this report). The
figure shows that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.28 At the

2628 27 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report
R45330, R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte. , by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
27 28 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn Institute, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of Upjohn Institute, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of
Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 2730927 309, June 2020., June 2020.
28 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020.
Congressional Research Service

5

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Congressional Research Service 5 link to page 10 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic Unemployment Rates by State Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January 2020 to June 2021 (the state-level data for July 2021 have not been released as of the cover date of this report). The figure shows that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.29 At the onset of the most recent recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of onset of the most recent recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of
ColumbiaColumbia surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economicsurpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage damage
was due to a number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide was due to a number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide
nonessential services to in-person customers,nonessential services to in-person customers,2930 individual concerns of contracting COVID-19 individual concerns of contracting COVID-19
causing declines in personal consumption,causing declines in personal consumption,3031 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and
business closure policies. business closure policies.3132
Figure 3. State Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to MayJune 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series extracted using the Local Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series extracted using the Local
Area Unemployment Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/lau/ Area Unemployment Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/lau/
Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February 2020 as the first month of the most
recent recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance.
The state-level data for June 2021 have not been released as of the cover date of this report.
The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and since declined. In May 2021, the
states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (8.1%), New Mexico (8.0%), California
(7.9%), Nevada (7.8%), and New York (7.8%). The states with the lowest unemployment rates in
April 2021 were New Hampshire (2.5%), Nebraska (2.6%), Vermont (2.6%), Utah (2.7%), and
South Dakota (2.8%).

29 29 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper No. 27061, April 2020. 30 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
30 31 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
3132 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

6 6

---

link to page 12 link to page 12 link to page 12 link to page 12 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February 2020 as the first month of the most recent recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. The state-level data for July 2021 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and since declined. In June 2021, the states with the highest unemployment rates were Connecticut (7.9%), New Mexico (7.9%), Nevada (7.8%), California (7.7%), Hawai (7.7%), and New York (7.7%). The states with the lowest unemployment rates in June 2021 were Nebraska (2.5%), Utah (2.7%), New Hampshire (2.9%), South Dakota (2.9%), and Idaho (3.0%). Unemployment Rates by Sector
Figure 4 displays the change in sector unemployment rates from January 2020, before the start of displays the change in sector unemployment rates from January 2020, before the start of
the most recent recession, to the most recent recession, to JuneJuly 2021. Sector unemployment rates define the unemployment 2021. Sector unemployment rates define the unemployment
rate among individuals whose last job was in a particular sector. The figure shows that some rate among individuals whose last job was in a particular sector. The figure shows that some
sectors were disparately impacted by the recession, although the data are not seasonal y adjusted. sectors were disparately impacted by the recession, although the data are not seasonal y adjusted.
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to determine the extent to which unemployment Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to determine the extent to which unemployment
trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. Readers should interpret trends shown in trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. Readers should interpret trends shown in
Figure 4 with some caution as this report does not test for statistical significance of these with some caution as this report does not test for statistical significance of these
differences. differences.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

7 7

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 4. Unemployment Rates by Sector
Non-seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Non-seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: Statistical significance is not calculated for these trends; it is unclear how dependent these trends are on Statistical significance is not calculated for these trends; it is unclear how dependent these trends are on
regular seasonal variation. Sectors are defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) regular seasonal variation. Sectors are defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure shows unemployment rates for and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure shows unemployment rates for
wage and salary workers. Two sectors do not have displayed peak unemployment rates. The mining sector wage and salary workers. Two sectors do not have displayed peak unemployment rates. The mining sector
experienced two peaks of 19.3% in November 2020 and February 2021, while the agriculture sector experienced experienced two peaks of 19.3% in November 2020 and February 2021, while the agriculture sector experienced
its peak before the most recent recession and pandemic began (12.5% in January 2020). its peak before the most recent recession and pandemic began (12.5% in January 2020).
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

8 8

---

link to page 14 link to page 14 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality sector experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality sector experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other sector; they also had the highest unemployment rate in other sector; they also had the highest unemployment rate in JuneJuly 2021 ( 2021 (10.99.0%). However, %). However,
elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to sectors providing in-person services. Workers elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to sectors providing in-person services. Workers
whose last job was in the miningwhose last job was in the mining or extraction sector have experienced steadily increasing or extraction sector have experienced steadily increasing
unemployment since the onset of the recession; in unemployment since the onset of the recession; in JuneJuly 2021 they exhibited the second highest 2021 they exhibited the second highest
rate ( rate (10.38.9%) among al workers across sectors. The lowest %) among al workers across sectors. The lowest JuneJuly 2021 rates were among workers 2021 rates were among workers
whose last job was in the financial activities (3.whose last job was in the financial activities (3.40%), government (%), government (3.5%), or education and health
services (4.44.1%), or manufacturing (4.2%) sectors. These sectors have exhibited relatively low unemployment rates %) sectors. These sectors have exhibited relatively low unemployment rates
compared to most other sectors from February 2020 through compared to most other sectors from February 2020 through JuneJuly 2021. 2021.3233 Within sectors, certain Within sectors, certain
types of workers were more likely to lose their jobs than others early in the recession. For types of workers were more likely to lose their jobs than others early in the recession. For
example, some example, some studies from early in the pandemic suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure studies from early in the pandemic suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure
and hospitality and hospitality sector and other services sectors experienced disproportionately large employment sector and other services sectors experienced disproportionately large employment
losses.losses.3334
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5 part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% in part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% in
April 2020) than full-time workers (12.8% in April 2020). This disparity modestly reversed as the April 2020) than full-time workers (12.8% in April 2020). This disparity modestly reversed as the
recession progressed, as the unemployment rate for part-time workers in recession progressed, as the unemployment rate for part-time workers in JuneJuly 2021 (5. 2021 (5.40%) was %) was
less than the unemployment rate for full-time workers ( less than the unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.05.5%). %).
There are a few considerations that may provide additional context. First, some workers who last There are a few considerations that may provide additional context. First, some workers who last
worked part-time jobs may have left the labor force, and hence are not counted in the official worked part-time jobs may have left the labor force, and hence are not counted in the official
unemployment statistics used in this report. It is unclear whether that is the case. Additional y, unemployment statistics used in this report. It is unclear whether that is the case. Additional y,
there was a considerable increase in the number of part-time workers who reported that they there was a considerable increase in the number of part-time workers who reported that they
would have preferred to work full-time but would have preferred to work full-time but workworked part-time because their hours were reduced or part-time because their hours were reduced or
they could only find part-time jobs.they could only find part-time jobs.3435 This could be reflected as a reduced unemployment rate This could be reflected as a reduced unemployment rate
among part-time workers. Further, BLS has observed that labor underutilization has remained among part-time workers. Further, BLS has observed that labor underutilization has remained
elevated for workers, including those who have been working part-time for economic reasons. elevated for workers, including those who have been working part-time for economic reasons.3536

3233 T hese data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the T hese data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the
education and health services sector. education and health services sector.
3334 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
3435 T he number of workers working part-time for economic reasons increased from 4.4 million in February 2020 to 4. T he number of workers working part-time for economic reasons increased from 4.4 million in February 2020 to 4.65
million in million in JuneJuly 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis. See https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm. 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis. See https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea07.htm.
3536 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates. U-6 is a measure of the total See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates. U-6 is a measure of the total
unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a percentage of the civilian labor force plus all reasons, as a percentage of the civilian labor force plus all personsperson s marginally attached to the labor force. marginally attached to the labor force. For more on For more on
this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, Introduction to U.S. Econom y: Unem ployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

9 9

---

link to page 15 link to page 15
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 5. Unemployment Rates for Part- and Full-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS14100000 and Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS14100000 and
LNS14200000 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. LNS14200000 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: Both groups experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020. Both groups experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020.
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen inAs seen in Figure 6, unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workersunemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers and were and were
higher for women early in the most recent recession. higher for women early in the most recent recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate Between February and April 2020, the rate
for women ages 16-19 increased by 25.3 percentage points to 36.3%; in contrast, the rates for for women ages 16-19 increased by 25.3 percentage points to 36.3%; in contrast, the rates for
men of the same age increased by 16.2 percentage points to 28.2%. Since then, the gap between men of the same age increased by 16.2 percentage points to 28.2%. Since then, the gap between
younger men and women has narrowed. younger men and women has narrowed.
The unemployment rate for teenaged men ( The unemployment rate for teenaged men (9.510.4%) was %) was lowerhigher than the rate for teenaged women than the rate for teenaged women
((10.48.7%) in %) in June 2021, although both of these rates roughly equal pre-recession levels. While
unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high compared to older workers, the
June 2021 rates for men and women across the remaining age groups have declined to levels
similar to each otherJuly 2021. The rate for men ages 20-24 (10.. The rate for men ages 20-24 (10.24%) was higher than the rate for women of %) was higher than the rate for women of
the same age (7.the same age (7.9%). The large disparities observed in April 2020 between younger men and
women were not observed in older age groups. 7%). For older age groups, unemployment rates were much lower in July 2021. The unemployment rate The unemployment rate in June 2021 for women for women
ages 25 to 54 (ages 25 to 54 (5.34.8%) was lower than the rate for men (5.%) was lower than the rate for men (5.61%) %) in that age band, while the rate for in that age band, while the rate for
women ages 55 and over (women ages 55 and over (5.04.3%) was slightly %) was slightly higherlower than that than that of men ages 55 and over (4.of men ages 55 and over (4.84%). %).
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

10 10

---

link to page 16 link to page 16
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 6. Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple series extracted using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple series extracted using
the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: Every group experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020. Every group experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020.
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen inAs seen in Figure 7, the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White36White37 workers increased workers increased
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April
2020, the rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May 2020. The 2020, the rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May 2020. The JuneJuly 2021 2021
rates for Black (rates for Black (98.2%), Asian (5..2%), Asian (5.83%), and White (%), and White (5.24.8%) workers were al higher than their %) workers were al higher than their
respective rates in January 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined respective rates in January 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 78.5 percentage points .5 percentage points
since peaking in May 2020, compared to a decline of 9.since peaking in May 2020, compared to a decline of 9.16 percentage points for Asian workers and percentage points for Asian workers and
8.99.3 percentage points for White workers across the same period. percentage points for White workers across the same period.

3637 Black, Asian, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian Black, Asian, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

11 11

---

link to page 16 link to page 16

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 7. Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor StatisticsCreated by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).(BLS). Series LNS14000006, Series LNS14000006,
LNS14000003, and LNS14032183 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/LNS14000003, and LNS14032183 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/
data/. data/.
Notes: Black and Asian workers experienced their peak Black and Asian workers experienced their peak unemployment rate in May 2020. White workers peak unemployment rate in May 2020. White workers peak
rate occurred in April 2020. rate occurred in April 2020.
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. The People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. The
unemployment rate for Hispanic workers rapidly increased by 13.7 percentage points to 18.5% unemployment rate for Hispanic workers rapidly increased by 13.7 percentage points to 18.5%
from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the unemployment rate increased by 10 from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the unemployment rate increased by 10
points to 13.6%. As seen inpoints to 13.6%. As seen in Figure 8, Hispanic workers continue to experience elevated Hispanic workers continue to experience elevated
unemployment rates. In unemployment rates. In JuneJuly 2021, nonseasonal y adjusted unemployment rates experienced by 2021, nonseasonal y adjusted unemployment rates experienced by
Hispanic (Hispanic (7.36.6%) and non-Hispanic (5.%) and non-Hispanic (5.85%) workers were higher than those experienced prior to %) workers were higher than those experienced prior to
the recession. While unemployment remains elevated compared to January 2020, these rates are the recession. While unemployment remains elevated compared to January 2020, these rates are
much lower than the peak exhibited in April 2020. much lower than the peak exhibited in April 2020.
Figure 8. Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonalSeasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNU04000009 and Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNU04000009 and
LNU04092169 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. LNU04092169 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

12 12

---

link to page 17 link to page 17
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Notes: Statistical significance is not calculated for these trends; it is unclear how dependent these trends are on Statistical significance is not calculated for these trends; it is unclear how dependent these trends are on
regular seasonal variation. regular seasonal variation.
Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the most recent recession, as seen in unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the most recent recession, as seen in
Figure 9. The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in
April 2020 (21.0%), which was higher than the peak for those at al other education levels. The April 2020 (21.0%), which was higher than the peak for those at al other education levels. The
JuneJuly 2021 rate for workers with less than a high school diploma ( 2021 rate for workers with less than a high school diploma (10.29.5%) was also higher than the %) was also higher than the
rate for al other education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest rate for al other education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest
educational level classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April 2020) educational level classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April 2020)
and the lowest and the lowest JuneJuly 2021 rate (3. 2021 rate (3.51%) among al education levels. %) among al education levels.
Figure 9. Unemployment Rates by Education
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: Al groups experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020. Al groups experienced their peak unemployment rate in April 2020.
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate:
Historical Trends
While the unemployment rate measures the prevalence of unemployment in the labor force, it While the unemployment rate measures the prevalence of unemployment in the labor force, it
does not consider the state of the labor force itself. When persons stop looking for work, they exit does not consider the state of the labor force itself. When persons stop looking for work, they exit
the labor force, decreasing the number of persons who are either working or actively looking for the labor force, decreasing the number of persons who are either working or actively looking for
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

13 13

---

link to page 18 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

work. Such persons are not counted in the unemployment rate, by definition, but are an important work. Such persons are not counted in the unemployment rate, by definition, but are an important
group to examine when evaluating unemployment. CRS therefore uses the labor force group to examine when evaluating unemployment. CRS therefore uses the labor force
participation rate to further contextualize unemployment rates observed during the COVID-19 participation rate to further contextualize unemployment rates observed during the COVID-19
pandemic. The labor force participation rate measures the percentage of noninstitutionalized pandemic. The labor force participation rate measures the percentage of noninstitutionalized
people ages 16 and older who are either looking for work, or working. people ages 16 and older who are either looking for work, or working.3738
Over much of the past two decades, the labor force participation rate has general y declined. Over much of the past two decades, the labor force participation rate has general y declined.
Following several years of modest growth through the early and mid-90s, labor force Following several years of modest growth through the early and mid-90s, labor force
participation rates started to plateau, hit a historical peak in April 2000 (67.3%), and then participation rates started to plateau, hit a historical peak in April 2000 (67.3%), and then
declineddeclined (see Figure 10). Labor force participation declined further following the Great Recession, before . Labor force participation declined further following the Great Recession, before
stabilizing and steadily increasing starting in October 2015. This decline can be attributed to stabilizing and steadily increasing starting in October 2015. This decline can be attributed to
several factors, although one prominent reason is the ongoing retirement of the baby boomer several factors, although one prominent reason is the ongoing retirement of the baby boomer
generation.generation.3839 Despite the increase exhibited following the Great Recession, the labor force Despite the increase exhibited following the Great Recession, the labor force
participation rate in January 2020 (63.4%) prior to both the COVID-19 pandemic and economic participation rate in January 2020 (63.4%) prior to both the COVID-19 pandemic and economic
recession remained below its historical peak. recession remained below its historical peak.
Between February 2020 and April 2020, the labor force participation rate exhibited an Between February 2020 and April 2020, the labor force participation rate exhibited an
unprecedented decline of 3.1 percentage points as 8.3 mil ion people left the labor force. The unprecedented decline of 3.1 percentage points as 8.3 mil ion people left the labor force. The
participation rate partial y recovered between May 2020 and August 2020 before stagnating. It participation rate partial y recovered between May 2020 and August 2020 before stagnating. It
remains below the pre-recession rate (63.4%) in remains below the pre-recession rate (63.4%) in JuneJuly 2021 (61. 2021 (61.67%). %).
Figure 10. Historical Labor Force Participation Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 1948 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS11300000 extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS11300000 extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research . .

3738 For definitions of the labor force, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other relevant terms, see For definitions of the labor force, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other relevant terms, see
https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#lfpr. https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#lfpr.
3839 See Michael Dotsey, Shigeru Fujita, and Leena Rudanko, See Michael Dotsey, Shigeru Fujita, and Leena Rudanko, Where is Everybody? The Shrinking Labor Force
Participation Rate, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Economic Insights Vol 2. Issue 4, Philadelphia, PA, 2017, , Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Economic Insights Vol 2. Issue 4, Philadelphia, PA, 2017,
pp. 17-24, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2017/q4/pp. 17-24, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2017/q4/
eiq417.pdf. eiq417.pdf.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

14 14

---

link to page 19 link to page 20 link to page 19 link to page 20
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 Recession: Trends in Labor Force
Participation
The COVID-19 pandemic affected the labor force participation rates in every major demographic The COVID-19 pandemic affected the labor force participation rates in every major demographic
group. The analysis in this section compares the pre-recession (January 2020) labor force group. The analysis in this section compares the pre-recession (January 2020) labor force
participation rate to the current labor force participation rate, calculating the difference between participation rate to the current labor force participation rate, calculating the difference between
the two for each month between January 2020 and the two for each month between January 2020 and JuneJuly 2021. Figure 11 shows the sharp decline shows the sharp decline
in the labor force participation rate for individuals ages 16 years and older between February in the labor force participation rate for individuals ages 16 years and older between February
2020 and April 2020. During this period, 8.3 mil ion individuals2020 and April 2020. During this period, 8.3 mil ion individuals left the labor force. The overal left the labor force. The overal
rate recovered between May 2020 and August 2020 before stagnating. The labor force rate recovered between May 2020 and August 2020 before stagnating. The labor force
participation rate in participation rate in JuneJuly 2021 remains 1. 2021 remains 1.87 percentage points below its pre-recession level. percentage points below its pre-recession level.
Figure 11. Labor Force Participation Rate During COVID-19 Pandemic
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS11300000 extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS11300000 extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Changes in LFPR since January 2020 LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Changes in LFPR since January 2020
have not been tested for statistical significance. have not been tested for statistical significance.
Labor Force Participation Rate by Age and Sex
Figure 12 displays the change in the labor force participation rate since January 2020 by age and displays the change in the labor force participation rate since January 2020 by age and
sex. Between January 2020 and April 2020, every group experienced a decline in their labor force sex. Between January 2020 and April 2020, every group experienced a decline in their labor force
participation rate. Women aged 16 to 19 (-7.0 percentage points) and men aged 20 to 24 (-9.2 participation rate. Women aged 16 to 19 (-7.0 percentage points) and men aged 20 to 24 (-9.2
percentage points) experienced the largest declines in labor force participation between January percentage points) experienced the largest declines in labor force participation between January
2020 and April 2020. Men and women in the 25-54 and 55-and-older age groups experienced 2020 and April 2020. Men and women in the 25-54 and 55-and-older age groups experienced
smal er declines in labor force participation smal er declines in labor force participation but have seen their recovery stagnateat the start of the COVID-19 recession. The 25-54 age group has experienced a substantial improvement in their participation rate since the end of the recession in April 2020. However, the 55-and-older age group has exhibited stagnating participation rates over this same period. .
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

15 15

---

link to page 21 link to page 21
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 12. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Changes in LFPR since January 2020 LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Changes in LFPR since January 2020
have not been tested for statistical significance. have not been tested for statistical significance.
Labor Force Participation Rate by Race and Ethnicity
Figure 13 displays the change in the labor force participation rate for the Black, Asian, and White displays the change in the labor force participation rate for the Black, Asian, and White
racial groups since January 2020. Between January 2020 and April 2020, each group experienced racial groups since January 2020. Between January 2020 and April 2020, each group experienced
a sharp decline in their labor force participation rate. In a sharp decline in their labor force participation rate. In JuneJuly 2021, the participation rate for each 2021, the participation rate for each
group remained below its January 2020 value. group remained below its January 2020 value.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

16 16

---

link to page 22 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 13. Labor Force Participation Rate by Race
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS11300006, Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNS11300006,
LNS11332183, and LNS11300003 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/LNS11332183, and LNS11300003 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/
data/. data/.
Notes: LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Changes in LFPR since January 2020 LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Changes in LFPR since January 2020
have not been tested for statistical significance. have not been tested for statistical significance.
Individuals of any race can identify as Hispanic or non-Hispanic. The data on labor force Individuals of any race can identify as Hispanic or non-Hispanic. The data on labor force
participation rate for these two ethnic groups are not seasonal y adjusted. Therefore, this report is participation rate for these two ethnic groups are not seasonal y adjusted. Therefore, this report is
constrained to a comparison across values for January 2020 and the most recent month for which constrained to a comparison across values for January 2020 and the most recent month for which
the data are available. This comparison shows that Hispanic individuals had higher participation the data are available. This comparison shows that Hispanic individuals had higher participation
rates in both January 2020 and rates in both January 2020 and JuneJuly 2021 than non-Hispanic individuals, but the decline in labor 2021 than non-Hispanic individuals, but the decline in labor
force participation over this period was greater for Hispanic persons. The labor force participation force participation over this period was greater for Hispanic persons. The labor force participation
rate for rate for Nonnon-Hispanic individuals in -Hispanic individuals in JuneJuly 2021 was 0. 2021 was 0.86 percentage points below its value for percentage points below its value for
January 2020January 2020 (see Figure 14). For Hispanic individuals, the participation rate in . For Hispanic individuals, the participation rate in JuneJuly 2021 was 2021 was 2.0 1.7 percentage percentage
points below its January 2020 value. points below its January 2020 value.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

17 17

---

link to page 23 link to page 23
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 14. Labor Force Participation Rate by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Non-seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNU01300009 and Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Series LNU01300009 and
LNU01392169 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. LNU01392169 extracted using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Statistical significance is not calculated LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. Statistical significance is not calculated
for these trends; it is unclear how dependent these trends are on regular seasonal variation. Changes in LFPR for these trends; it is unclear how dependent these trends are on regular seasonal variation. Changes in LFPR
since January 2020 have not been tested for statistical significancesince January 2020 have not been tested for statistical significance.
Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment
Figure 15 displays the difference in the labor force participation rate from its January 2020 level displays the difference in the labor force participation rate from its January 2020 level
for groups with different levels of educational attainment. Labor force participation fel for al for groups with different levels of educational attainment. Labor force participation fel for al
groups between January 2020 and April 2020. The largest decline was experienced by those with groups between January 2020 and April 2020. The largest decline was experienced by those with
a high school diploma but no college (-4.3 percentage points), which was followed by those with a high school diploma but no college (-4.3 percentage points), which was followed by those with
less than a high school diploma (-3.3 percentage points). In less than a high school diploma (-3.3 percentage points). In JuneJuly 2021, every group 2021, every group except those with less than a high school diploma remained remained
below their labor force participation rate in January 2020. Those with a high school diploma (-below their labor force participation rate in January 2020. Those with a high school diploma (-2.7
3.3 percentage points) remained wel below percentage points) remained wel below their labor force participation rates in January 2020. their labor force participation rates in January 2020.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

18 18

---

link to page 24 link to page 24
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 15. Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted
using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the Labor Force Statistics data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. These data reflect the civilian LFPR = Labor Force Participation Rate; ppt = percentage points. These data reflect the civilian
population that is 25 years and older. Changes in LFPR since January 2020 have not been tested for statistical population that is 25 years and older. Changes in LFPR since January 2020 have not been tested for statistical
significance. significance.
COVID-19 Recession: Nonfarm Payrolls
The number of nonfarm workers on payroll further contextualizes the relatively high The number of nonfarm workers on payroll further contextualizes the relatively high
unemployment rates observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unemployment rates and labor unemployment rates observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unemployment rates and labor
force participation rates do not measure the extent of job disruption occurring during the force participation rates do not measure the extent of job disruption occurring during the
pandemic. By comparing the number of pandemic. By comparing the number of jobs39jobs40 occupied before the recession to recent data, CRS before the recession to recent data, CRS can
can evaluate the extent of job loss and put unemployment rates into a broader economic context. evaluate the extent of job loss and put unemployment rates into a broader economic context.
Figure 16 displays the gap between the January 2020 and displays the gap between the January 2020 and JuneJuly 2021 employment levels for al 2021 employment levels for al
supersector industries in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).supersector industries in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).40 In June41 In July
2021, there were 2021, there were 6.55.4 mil ion fewer jobs mil ion fewer jobs occupied than there were in January 2020. The largest portions of than there were in January 2020. The largest portions of
this gap were made up by the leisure and hospitality (this gap were made up by the leisure and hospitality (2.11.7 mil ion), education and mil ion), education and health services health services
(997(901,000), and government (,000), and government (874736,000) sectors. While losses were concentrated in a ,000) sectors. While losses were concentrated in a handful of handful of
major sectors, employment gaps existed for al sectors in major sectors, employment gaps existed for al sectors in JuneJuly 2021. 2021.

3940 A A job is defined as a paid position at a nonfarm business that is currently occupied. T his is different from a is defined as a paid position at a nonfarm business that is currently occupied. T his is different from a job
opening, which is defined as a position at a business establishment that is not occupied. , which is defined as a position at a business establishment that is not occupied.
4041 Sectors are defined by the NAICS and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. Sectors are defined by the NAICS and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

19 19

---

link to page 25 link to page 25
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 16. Change in Employment by Sector
Seasonal y adjusted data for Seasonal y adjusted data for JuneJuly 2021; relative to January 2020 2021; relative to January 2020

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted
using the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: A single purple box reflects roughly 10,000 A single purple box reflects roughly 10,000 occupied jobs. Data forjobs. Data for June July 2021 are preliminary. “Other services” is 2021 are preliminary. “Other services” is
a BLS aggregation of three subsectors: repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, and a BLS aggregation of three subsectors: repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, and membership
associations membership associations and organizations. and organizations.
Trends in Employment in the Private Sector
Figure 17 displays the monthly change in seasonal y adjusted nonfarm jobs displays the monthly change in seasonal y adjusted nonfarm jobs occupied from January 2020 to from January 2020 to
JuneJuly 2021 for six major sectors of the private sector. 2021 for six major sectors of the private sector.4142 The trough in job loss The trough in job loss occurred in April occurred in April
2020 for each sector in the figure. The leisure and hospitality sector experienced greater job 2020 for each sector in the figure. The leisure and hospitality sector experienced greater job
losses (-8.3 mil ion) than any other sector. Additional y, the leisure and hospitalitylosses (-8.3 mil ion) than any other sector. Additional y, the leisure and hospitality sector had the sector had the
largest employment gap in largest employment gap in JuneJuly 2021 (- 2021 (-2.11.7 mil ion) compared to any other sector in that month. mil ion) compared to any other sector in that month.
The trade, transportation, and utilities sector had the second most jobs lost (-3.4 mil ion), The trade, transportation, and utilities sector had the second most jobs lost (-3.4 mil ion),
followed by education and health services (-2.7 mil ion), professional and business followed by education and health services (-2.7 mil ion), professional and business services (-2.3 services (-2.3
mil ion), other mil ion), other services42services43 (-1.4 mil ion), and manufacturing (-1.4 mil ion). In (-1.4 mil ion), and manufacturing (-1.4 mil ion). In June July 2021, al six of 2021, al six of
these sectors had fewer jobs these sectors had fewer jobs occupied compared to their respective employment compared to their respective employment levels in January 2020. levels in January 2020.

4142 For the purpose of this visualization, CRS selected the six private sectors with the largest (i.e., most negative) For the purpose of this visualization, CRS selected the six private sectors with the largest (i.e., most negative)
average losses in seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs from January 2020 to average losses in seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs from January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021. 2021.
4243 “Other services” is a BLS aggregation of three subsectors: repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, “Other services” is a BLS aggregation of three subsectors: repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services,
and membership associations and organizations. Sectors are defined by the North American Industry Classification and membership associations and organizations. Sectors are defined by the North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

20 20

---

link to page 26 link to page 26
Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 17. Job Loss During the COVID-19 RecessionChange in Employment in the Private Sector
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Multiple data series extracted
using the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/. using the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings data series at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: M = mil ion. Data for M = mil ion. Data for MayJune and and JuneJuly 2021 are preliminary. Changes in employment since January 2020 2021 are preliminary. Changes in employment since January 2020
have not been tested for statistical significance. have not been tested for statistical significance.
Trends in Employment by Government Sector
Figure 18 displays the monthly change in seasonal y adjusted nonfarm jobs displays the monthly change in seasonal y adjusted nonfarm jobs occupied from January 2020 to from January 2020 to
JuneJuly 2021 for three levels of government employment: federal, state, and local. 2021 for three levels of government employment: federal, state, and local. While the number While the number
of federal government jobs of federal government jobs occupied increased during 2020 (peaking at +309,000 jobs in August),increased during 2020 (peaking at +309,000 jobs in August),4344 state state
and local governments both experienced significant job losses. Local governments experienced and local governments both experienced significant job losses. Local governments experienced
the largest job losses of any government level, peaking at 1.2 mil ion jobs lost in May. There were the largest job losses of any government level, peaking at 1.2 mil ion jobs lost in May. There were
798562,000 fewer local government jobs ,000 fewer local government jobs occupied in Julyin June 2021 than in January 2020. State government jobs 2021 than in January 2020. State government jobs
fel throughout 2020 and peaked in October (-fel throughout 2020 and peaked in October (- 340,000 jobs). In 340,000 jobs). In JuneJuly 2021, state government 2021, state government
employment was employment was 97210,000 jobs below its January ,000 jobs below its January 2020 employment level. 2020 employment level.

4344 T his peak could be due to temporary employment for those conducting activities related to the 2020 Decennial T his peak could be due to temporary employment for those conducting activities related to the 2020 Decennial
Census. Census.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

21 21

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 18. Job Loss During the COVID-19 PandemicChange in Employment in the Public Sector
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January 2020 to JuneJuly 2021 2021

Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor StatisticsCreated by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).(BLS). Series CES9091000001, Series CES9091000001,
CES9092000001, and CES9093000001 extracted using the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings data series CES9092000001, and CES9093000001 extracted using the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings data series
at https://www.bls.gov/data/. at https://www.bls.gov/data/.
Notes: M = mil ion. Data for M = mil ion. Data for MayJune and and JuneJuly 2021 are preliminary. Changes in employment since January 2020 2021 are preliminary. Changes in employment since January 2020
have not been tested for statistical significance. have not been tested for statistical significance.
Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the Current Population Survey (CPS) or National level data presented in this report are from the Current Population Survey (CPS) or
Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, and state level data are from the Local Area Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, and state level data are from the Local Area
Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000
households conducted by the Census Bureau for BLS. The CES is a sample survey of about households conducted by the Census Bureau for BLS. The CES is a sample survey of about
144,000 business and government agencies conducted by BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that 144,000 business and government agencies conducted by BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that
calculates state-level unemployment rates using multiple data sources, including the CPS and calculates state-level unemployment rates using multiple data sources, including the CPS and
CES. CES.4445
Estimates from al three sources are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. Estimates from al three sources are subject to sampling and nonsampling error.4546 Sampling error Sampling error
occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
nonsampling error describes errors often associated with data collection. nonsampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.4647 Sampling error is a Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
and CES samples are selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it and CES samples are selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it
does not accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.does not accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.4748 Nonsampling error refers to al Nonsampling error refers to al
sources of error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection sources of error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection

4445 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims
counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
4546 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
4647 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm. For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
4748 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm. For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

22 22

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

and processing of the data. For example, nonsampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly and processing of the data. For example, nonsampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID 19 Pandemic-Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased nonsampling error in the CPS and CES due to a number of The COVID-19 pandemic increased nonsampling error in the CPS and CES due to a number of
factors. For example, BLS reported that both surveys experienced lower response rates.factors. For example, BLS reported that both surveys experienced lower response rates.4849 BLS BLS
additional y noted that business closures initial y interfered with the ability for businesses to additional y noted that business closures initial y interfered with the ability for businesses to
respond to CES inquiries. (The bureau has since made statements affirming the robustness of its respond to CES inquiries. (The bureau has since made statements affirming the robustness of its
CPS and CES estimates despite these lower response rates. CPS and CES estimates despite these lower response rates.4950) Furthermore, BLS detected an error ) Furthermore, BLS detected an error
in its CPS categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the in its CPS categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the
recession.recession.5051 Specifical y, large numbers of workers were classified as Specifical y, large numbers of workers were classified as employed but not at work
when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. This report does not use these adjusted estimates as they are not official BLS unemployment rate. This report does not use these adjusted estimates as they are not official BLS
estimates. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y adjusted estimates. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y adjusted
unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 in May, unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 in May,
1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October, 0.4 in November, 0.6 in 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October, 0.4 in November, 0.6 in
December, 0.6 in January 2021, 0.5 in February 2021, 0.4 in March 2021, 0.3 in April 2021, December, 0.6 in January 2021, 0.5 in February 2021, 0.4 in March 2021, 0.3 in April 2021, and
0.3 in May 20210.3 in May 2021.51 In June, and 0.2 in June 2021.52 In July 2021, the error underestimated seasonal y adjusted unemployment by 2021, the error underestimated seasonal y adjusted unemployment by
an estimated 0.an estimated 0.23 percentage points. percentage points.5253 These estimates evaluate what the impact would be in the These estimates evaluate what the impact would be in the
worst-case scenario, as the true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the worst-case scenario, as the true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the
underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the misclassification
misclassification error.” In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this classification error error.” In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this classification error during data collection during data collection
and processing.and processing.5354
Additional y, BLS Additional y, BLS recently identified a data processing error in the CES, which began in July identified a data processing error in the CES, which began in July
2020 but remained undetected. The error unintentional y caused some businesses to be 2020 but remained undetected. The error unintentional y caused some businesses to be
inappropriately included in the sample and used for estimates. BLS has since determined the inappropriately included in the sample and used for estimates. BLS has since determined the
impacts of this error impacts of this error were insignificant.were insignificant.5455
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS and CES. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other connection with the CPS and CES. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other
data sources that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic data sources that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic
on LAUS estimates is unknown. on LAUS estimates is unknown.5556

4849 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
4950 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm. See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
5051 See CRS Insight IN11456, See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
5152 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news- See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-
release.htm. release.htm.
5253 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2021.htm. See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2021.htm.
5354 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responses in August and marked those they felt could Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responses in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
5455 For the BLS notice on this error, see https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2021/ces-sample-rotation-issue-caused-by- For the BLS notice on this error, see https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2021/ces-sample-rotation-issue-caused-by-
pandemic-related-challenges-to-enrollment.htm. pandemic-related-challenges-to-enrollment.htm.
5556 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid- For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. 19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

23 23

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
  Lack of seasonally adjusted data.: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
BLS for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.56
57 Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report presents unadjusted data that do not account for underlying seasonal report presents unadjusted data that do not account for underlying seasonal
variation. variation.
  Reference week:. In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. CES data are containing the 12th of the month. CES data are collectedcol ected for the pay period for the pay period
including the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual including the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed, as labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed, as
wel as inconsistencies between CES-reported data and CPS-reported data. wel as inconsistencies between CES-reported data and CPS-reported data.
  CPS and LAUS unemployment rate comparability.: While the LAUS program While the LAUS program
uses the same unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, uses the same unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input,
LAUS estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). LAUS estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.


Author Information

Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant


Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant


Jameson A. Carter

Research Assistant


Acknowledgments
The The fourthree Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist inand writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Former CRS Research Assistant Jameson A. Carter contributed to this report. Social Policy. Questions from Questions from
congressional congressional staffs taff should be directed to Mr. Falk. should be directed to Mr. Falk.

5657 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal- See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service

24 24

---

Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic



Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.

Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
R46554 R46554 · VERSION 1820 · UPDATED
25 25

---