Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the March 26September 14, 2021 , 2021
117th Congress
Ashley J. Lawson
For many years, policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been of interest to For many years, policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been of interest to
Analyst in Energy Policy Analyst in Energy Policy
Congress. Congressional and constituent interest continues in the 117th Congress. One option to Congress. Congressional and constituent interest continues in the 117th Congress. One option to
reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation is reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation is a clean energy standard. a clean energy standard.
A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes called a clean electricity standard, is a policy that A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes called a clean electricity standard, is a policy that
requires a minimum share of electricity to be generated from eligible “clean” sources. No universal definition of clean energy requires a minimum share of electricity to be generated from eligible “clean” sources. No universal definition of clean energy
exists, and proposals differ in what technologies are included. Some proposals, usually referred to as a renewable portfolio exists, and proposals differ in what technologies are included. Some proposals, usually referred to as a renewable portfolio
standard (RPS), include only certain renewable energy sources (e.g., solar), while other proposals also include nuclear power, standard (RPS), include only certain renewable energy sources (e.g., solar), while other proposals also include nuclear power,
fossil fuels equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, certain natural gas technologies, or other energy fossil fuels equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, certain natural gas technologies, or other energy
sources. As of 2020, thirty states and the District of Columbia have implemented a CES, including 10 jurisdictions that will sources. As of 2020, thirty states and the District of Columbia have implemented a CES, including 10 jurisdictions that will
ultimately require 100% of covered electricity sales to come from eligible clean energy sources. ultimately require 100% of covered electricity sales to come from eligible clean energy sources.
In addition, eight states have nonbinding goals of carbon-free electricity, and many utilities have committed to reducing their GHG emissions to varying degrees and over different time frames. State targets and utility goals cover 77% of total U.S. electricity sales, with 69% of total sales covered by a carbon-free target or goal. Members of Congress have demonstrated a long-standing
Members of Congress have demonstrated a longstanding interest in CES policies, with proposals for a national CES dating at interest in CES policies, with proposals for a national CES dating at
least to 1997. None has been enacted. Most recently, least to 1997. None has been enacted. Most recently,sevenfour bills introduced bills introduced to date in the in the 116th117th Congress would Congress would have establishedestablish a a
national CES (sometimes in conjunction with other policies). The measures national CES (sometimes in conjunction with other policies). The measuresdiffereddiffer in eligible sources, final targets, and in eligible sources, final targets, and
implementation details. For example, one bill would implementation details. For example, one bill wouldhave required 100require 70% of covered electricity sales to come from % of covered electricity sales to come from new renewable renewable
energy sources by energy sources by20352030. Another . Another measure would have establishedbill would establish CES targets consistent with 80% reductions in electricity CES targets consistent with 80% reductions in electricity
GHG GHG emissions. The 116th Congress considered but did not enact seven similar CES bills. The Biden Administration has expressed support for a 100% CES as part of its commitment to reduce U.S. GHG emissions by 50%-52% from 2005 levels by 2030. Work is underway among some Members of Congress to develop a Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) to help achieve this goal. The proposed CEPP would aim to achieve the same goals as a CES but through a different policy s tructure (one designed to meet requirements for passage through budget reconciliation). For context, renewable sources made up 21% of U.S. electricity generation in 2020, nuclear power made up 20%, natural gas made up 40%, and coal (without CCS) made up 19emissions. Four of the bills would have established a 100% clean energy requirement for U.S. electricity generation
with target dates ranging from 2035 to 2050.
Other proposals put forward in 2020 also might be relevant to CES discussions in the 117th Congress. Two separate House
committees supported 100% CES policies. One aimed to achieve 100% clean energy used for electricity generation by 2050
and the other aimed for 100% by 2040. Additionally, President Biden campaigned on a goal of 100% clean energy used for
electricity generation by 2035, and an executive order issued in January 2021 reiterates that goal.
For context, renewable sources made up 18% of U.S. electricity generation in 2019, nuclear power made up 20%, natural gas
made up 38%, and coal (without CCS) made up 24%. In February 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) %. In February 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
projected the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2050 might vary from 33% to 57%, projected the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2050 might vary from 33% to 57%,
depending on factors such as future energy prices and economic growth. The share from depending on factors such as future energy prices and economic growth. The share from all non-emitting sources (i.e., non-emitting sources (i.e.,
renewables and nuclear) in 2050 varied from 44% to 67% in the projections, and the share from nonrenewables and nuclear) in 2050 varied from 44% to 67% in the projections, and the share from non -emitting sources together with natural gas varied from 86% to 93%. Concerns and criticisms raised against a CES include its potential to reduce electric reliability, increase electricity rates , and negatively impact environmental justice efforts. To a certain extent, a CES policy can be designed to address these concerns, and some bills have included provisions to do so. Efforts to address one impact could exacerbate others, though u ncertainty remains on potential impacts of any specific policy. For example, multiple studies have evaluated the cost of achieving a 100% CES policy, with estimates ranging from $106 billion to over $2 trillion in cumulative costs. Some studies have also estimated monetary benefits of a 100% CES, finding $715 billion to $1.7 trillion in cumulative benefits. In all cases where costs and benefits were both estimated, studies found that benefits outweighed costs. The future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect congressional perceptions of the necessity or feasibility of a CES. Estimating the future energy system makeup typically is challenging, especially over 15 years or more (i.e., the time periods covered by recent CES proposals). Another complicating factor is the possibility that the 117th Congress could change U.S. energy policy (not including consideration of a CES). For example, infrastructure legislation under consideration aims to accelerate deployment of certain kinds of clean energy technologies. Additionally , noncongressional action, such as executive actions or state policies, could affect the U.S. electricity system-emitting sources
together with natural gas varied from 86% to 93%.
The future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect congressional perceptions of the necessity or feasibility of a
CES. Estimating the future energy system makeup typically is challenging, especially over 15 years or more (i.e., the time
periods covered by recent CES proposals). The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic makes such
outlooks especially challenging, because of the impact the pandemic is having on U.S. energy consumption and production.
Another complicating factor is the possibility that the 117th Congress could change U.S. energy policy (not including
consideration of a CES). For example, legislation might aim to change the relative price of certain energy sources through tax
incentives, carbon pricing, or other means. Legislation could seek to alter future U.S. electricity demand, for example with
policies to increase electricity use for transportation or, alternatively, policies to decrease electricity use through improved
efficiency. Legislation not directly targeting the U.S. electricity system also could be relevant, for example legislation
directed towards affecting overall economic activity or infrastructure. Finally, non-congressional action such as executive
actions or state policies also could affect the U.S. electricity system.
In short, numerous policies the 117th Congress might consider could affect the future makeup of the U.S. electricity system,
as could non-congressional actions. The interactions among some or all of these factors might be relevant, should Congress . The interactions among some or all of these factors might be relevant, should Congress
choose to debate a CES. choose to debate a CES.
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Bills Introduced in the 117th and 116th Congresses ............................................. 1
Bills Introduced in the 116th Congress................... 2 Potential Considerations.............................................................................................. 1
Other Proposals..... 4 Putting a 100% Target in Context ...................................................................................... 8
Current Clean Energy Use......................................... 3
Putting a 100% Target in Context .................................................. 8
State Targets and Utility Commitments ........................................................... 4.............. 9
Outlook for Clean Energy in the U.S. Electricity System ............................................... 10 Concluding Observations ............................................... 6........................................... 13
Figures
Figure 1.20192020 U.S. Electricity Generation by Source Type ........................................................... 59
Figure 2. Projected Share of Total U.S. Electricity Generation, by Source Type ............................ 7
12 Tables
Table 1. National Clean Energy Standard (CES) Legislative Proposals
in the 116th Congress in the 117th and
116th Congresses..................................................................................................................... 2
Contacts
Author Information 3
Table 2. Cost and Benefit Estimates for 100% Clean Energy Standards ................................... 6
Contacts Author Information ................................................................................................... 10.... 13
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
Introduction
Congress continues to study and discuss a range of policies to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) Congress continues to study and discuss a range of policies to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, and the Biden Administration has made reducing GHG emissions a priority. Several emissions, and the Biden Administration has made reducing GHG emissions a priority. Several
legislativelegislative and executive actions could achieve such a goal. One legislativeand executive actions could achieve such a goal. One legislative option, targeting the option, targeting the
U.S. electricity system, is a clean energy standard. U.S. electricity system, is a clean energy standard.
A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes A clean energy standard (CES), sometimescalledcal ed a clean electricity standard, aims to increase the a clean electricity standard, aims to increase the
share of U.S. electricity generated from qualified clean energy sources. No agreed-upon definition share of U.S. electricity generated from qualified clean energy sources. No agreed-upon definition
of “clean energy” exists, so the exact set of energy sources supported by a CES proposal is one of of “clean energy” exists, so the exact set of energy sources supported by a CES proposal is one of
its defining characteristics. Members of Congress have introduced legislation to establish a its defining characteristics. Members of Congress have introduced legislation to establish a
national clean energy standard in every Congress since at least the 105th (1997-1998).1 national clean energy standard in every Congress since at least the 105th (1997-1998).1
Congressional and constituent interest in this policy continues in the 117th Congress.
As of 2020, thirty states and the District of Columbia have a CES.2 Of these, 10 ultimately will
require all covered electricity sales to come from eligible clean energy sources. The 10
jurisdictions are California, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New
Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Virginia, and Washington.3 Additionally, five states have non-
binding goals of 100% covered electricity sales from eligible clean energy sources: Connecticut,
Maine, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
This report provides two analyses to inform potential CES policy discussions in the 117th
Congress. First, this report summarizes CES proposals from the 116th Congress. Second, this
report analyzes the current and potential future makeup of the U.S. electricity system, for context.
Bills Introduced in the 116th Congress
CRS identified seven bills introduced in the 116th Congress that would have established a national
clean energy standard.4 Table 1 summarizes the CES proposals identified in these seven bills,
focusing on two key policy features: the final target and eligible sources. The final target is
typically expressed as the maximum required share of
The Biden Administration has expressed support for a CES as a key policy to reduce U.S. GHG
emissions by 50%-52% from 2005 levels by 2030, the target President Biden announced pursuant to the Paris Agreement.2 For example, the American Jobs Plan includes a 100% CES, and the Department of Energy’s FY2022 budget request included funding for “programmatic infrastructure” for a CES.3 An executive order issued January 27, 2021, also states the goal to “achieve or facilitate a carbon pollution-free electricity sector no later than 2035.”4 A Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP; also cal ed a Clean Electricity Payment Program)—
which would aim to achieve similar outcomes as the Biden Administration’s proposed CES, albeit through a different policy structure—has been proposed as part of the FY2022 budget reconciliation process.5 Details of the CEPP were not available at the time this report was written,
so it is not discussed herein. It may remain a topic of interest in the 117th Congress.
As of 2020, 30 states and the District of Columbia have a CES.6 Of these, 10 are to require al covered electricity sales to come from covered electricity sales to come from
eligible sources and the year by which that share is to be met. Final targets for many state CES
eligible clean energy sources: California, Colorado, the 1 Seven of these measures1 Seven of these measures were were passed in at least one chamber, in all casespassed in at least one chamber, in all cases as part of comprehensive energy or as part of comprehensive energy or
environmental legislation. No CES provision wasenvironmental legislation. No CES provision was enacted into law. For more information, see CRSenacted into law. For more information, see CRS In Focus IF11316, In Focus IF11316,
A Brief History of U.S. Electricity Portfolio Standard Proposals, by Ashley J. Lawson., by Ashley J. Lawson. Past proposals have used Past proposals have used
alternative names such as renewablealternative names such as renewable portfolio standard (RPS) or clean electricity standard. An RPSportfolio standard (RPS) or clean electricity standard. An RPS includes includes only only
renewablerenewable sources sources while a clean energy (or electricity) standard typically also includeswhile a clean energy (or electricity) standard typically also includes non-renewable nonrenewable sources like sources like
nuclear power. Most policy considerations apply equally to RPS or CES.nuclear power. Most policy considerations apply equally to RPS or CES. For simplicity, this report generally usesFor simplicity, this report generally uses the the
term CESterm CES to refer to any policy that would require certain sources beto refer to any policy that would require certain sources be used used for electricity generation, reflecting the for electricity generation, reflecting the
predominant usage in the proposals in the 116th predominant usage in the proposals in the 116thCongressand 117th Congresses. For more information about CES, see CRS Report R45913, . For more information about CES, see CRS Report R45913,
Electricity Portfolio Standards: Background, DesignElementsElem ents, and Policy Considerations, by Ashley J. Lawson. , by Ashley J. Lawson.
2 Some of these states have an RPS in place, setting goals for renewable energy use only. Three U.S. territories also
have an RPS. Eight additional states and one additional territory have voluntary renewable portfolio goals in place.
N.C. Clean Energy Technology Center Database of State Incentives for Renewables 2 White House, “Fact Sheet: President Biden Sets 2030 Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction T arget Aimed at Creating Good-Paying Union Jobs and Securing U.S. Leadership on Clean Energy T echnologies,” April 22, 2021. For discussion of the Paris Agreement, see CRS In Focus IF11746, United States Rejoins the Paris Agreem ent on Clim ate Change: Options for Congress, by Jane A. Leggett .
3 T he American Jobs Plan includes an Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard aimed at “100 percent carbon-pollution free power by 2035.” White House, “Fact Sheet: T he American Jobs Plan,” March 31, 2021; and U.S. Department of Energy, “ Budget in Brief,” June 2021, p. 1. 4 Executive Order 14008, “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” 86 Federal Register 7619, February 1, 2021. Campaign quote comes from https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/#, accessed January 15, 2020.
5 See, for example, Nick Sobczyk, “5 Issues to Watch as Budget Reconciliation Kicks Into Gear,” E&E News, August 10, 2021; and discussion by Senator T ina Smith on “ What Will It T ake to Put Clean Electricity on the Grid?,” August 9, 2021, 1A, produced by Kathryn Fink, podcast, at https://the1a.org/segments/what-will-it-take-to-put -clean-electricity-on-the-grid/. 6 Some of these states have an RPS in place, setting goals for renewable energy use only. T hree U.S. territories also have an RPS. Eight additional states and one additional territory have voluntary renewable portfolio goals in place. N.C. Clean Energy T echnology Center Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE), Renewable
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District of Columbia, Hawai , Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Virginia, and Washington.7 Additional y, at least eight states have nonbinding goals of 100% covered electricity sales from eligible clean energy sources: Connecticut, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New
Jersey, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.8
Experts disagree about the extent to which achieving a 100% CES presents cost or feasibility chal enges. Assessing the cost and feasibility of a 100% CES is beyond the scope of this report. This report provides some analysis and discussion to inform potential CES policy debate in the
117th Congress, including a summary of CES proposals to date in the 117th and 116th Congresses.
Bills Introduced in the 117th and 116th Congresses CRS identified four bil s introduced in the 117th Congress to date and seven bil s introduced in the 116th Congress that would establish a national clean energy standard.9 Table 1 summarizes the CES proposals identified in these 11 bil s, focusing on two key policy features: the final target and eligible sources. The final target is typical y expressed as the maximum required share of covered electricity sales to come from eligible sources and the year by which that share is to be
met. Final targets for many state CES policies and past legislative proposals apply uniformly across al utilities (i.e., al utilities have to meet the same percentage in the same year); however, several bil s included in Table 1 set targets for each utility individual y. This distinction is noted in the table. Eligible sources refer to the energy sources that may be used for compliance with the CES. Bil s defined eligible sources by either source type (e.g., renewable energy, nuclear power)
or carbon intensity (i.e., the volume of GHG released per unit of electricity generated).
& Efficiency (DSIRE), Renewable
Portfolio Standards and Clean Energy Standards, September 2020. , September 2020.
3 The7 T he District of Columbia, Hawaii, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and VirginiaMassachusetts, and Virginia each requireeach require 100% of covered electricity sales to come 100% of covered electricity sales to come
from renewablefrom renewable energy sources. energy sources. TheT he dates for achieving those targets vary. In 2020, Arizona regulators approved a dates for achieving those targets vary. In 2020, Arizona regulators approved a
100% CES,100% CES, but but the policy is not yet finalized. the policy is not yet finalized.
4 Bills were identified by searching Congress.gov using the phrases “clean energy,” “clean energy standard,”
“renewable electricity standard,” “renewable energy,” “renewable energy standard,” and “Additionally, Puerto Rico has a 100% RPS. 8 Generally, a nonbinding goal has no penalty for failing to meet it, while a binding goal or a requirement does. Some nonbinding goals were enacted through legislation, while others were adopted by executive order. T he group Clean Energy States Alliance (CESA) tracks state goals and provides a table with more information about state clean energy targets. CESA, “States with 100% Clean Energy Goals,” at https://www.cesa.org/projects/100-clean-energy-collaborative/table-of-100-clean-energy-states/. As of the time of this writing, CESA identifies the eight states listed in the body of this report. Governors in other states, such as North Dakota and Wyoming, have made public statements supporting carbon reductions in their states, though not necessarily carbon-free electricity generation. See Adam Willis, “Gov. Doug Burgum Calls for North Dakota to be Carbon Neutral by 2030,” Grand Forks Herald, May 12, 2021; and Mead Gruver, “Governor of T op Coal-Mining State Sets Carbon-Negative Goal,” AP, March 2, 2021. 9 Bills were identified by searching Congress.gov using the phrases “clean energy standard,” “ clean electricity standard,” “ clean energy,” “ renewable electricity,” “ renewable energy,” and “ renewable portfolio renewable portfolio
standard” in fullstandard” in full bill text or bill summaries. Search resultsbill text or bill summaries. Search results were refined by includingwere refined by including only the Subjectonly the Subject -Policy Area -Policy Area
terms “terms “ Energy” and “Environmental Protection.” Some bills contained policy provisions other than CES, but those Energy” and “Environmental Protection.” Some bills contained policy provisions other than CES, but those
other policies are not other policies are notsummarized summarized in this report. in this report.
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
policies and past legislative proposals applied across all utilities; however, several bills in the
116th Congress would have set targets for each utility individually. This distinction is noted in the
table. Eligible sources are the sources that may be used for compliance with the CES. Bills in the
116th Congress defined eligible sources by either source type (e.g., renewable energy, nuclear
power) or carbon intensity (i.e., the volume of GHG released per unit of electricity generated).
Table 1. National Clean Energy Standard (CES) Legislative Proposals
in the 116th Congress
Selected
Distinguishing
Short Title
Bill Number(s)
Final Target
Eligible Sources
Feature(s)
Climate Solutions
H.R. 330
100% by 2035
Renewables
Additional policy
Act of 2019
details not set in
legislation; instead,
to be determined by
DOE regulations.
Clean Energy
S. 1359 / H.R. 2597
100% by 2050, or
Renewables,
Targets set
Standard Act of
potentially later for
nuclear, CCS,
individually for
2019
some utilities
natural gas
every electric utility
up to 90% before
2040, then
Table 1. National Clean Energy Standard (CES) Legislative Proposals in the 117th and 116th Congresses Bill Eligible Selected Distinguishing Short Title Number(s) Final Target Sources Feature(s) 117th Congress CLEAN Future Act H.R. 1512 100% by 2035 Renewables, Targets set individual y for every nuclear, CCS, electric utility. Certain sources natural gas must account for GHG emissions during production and transport of fuel. Direct air capture eligible for credits. Eligible sources must meet defined labor standards. American H.R. 3959 70% by 2030 Renewables, Carve outs for distributed Renewable Energy excluding generation and generation Act of 2021 existing located in defined impacted hydropower communities. Clean Energy Future H.R. 4153 80% reductions in Any source The CES comes into effect 10 Through Innovation power sector with annual years after enactment, or earlier Act of 2021 emissions by 2050 carbon if defined market penetration intensity less criteria are met for certain than 0.82 technologies (e.g., coal-fired metric tons power plants with CCS). carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour Clean Energy H.R. 4309 100% by 2050 Renewables, Targets set individual y for every Innovation and nuclear, CCS, electric utility. Emissions Deployment Act of natural gas reductions outside the power 2021 sector (e.g., electrified space heating, electric vehicle charging, direct air capture) covered by the CES. 116th Congress Climate Solutions H.R. 330 100% by 2035 Renewables Additional policy details not set Act of 2019 in legislation; instead, to be determined by DOE regulations. Clean Energy S. 1359 / H.R. 100% by 2050, or Renewables, Targets set individual y for every Standard Act of 2597 potential y later for nuclear, CCS, electric utility up to 90% before 2019 some utilities natural gas 2040, then increasing 1 increasing 1
percentage point percentage point
each year after each year after
utility reaches 90%. utility reaches 90%.
Renewable Renewable
S. 1974 S. 1974
1.5 percentage 1.5 percentage
Renewables Renewables
Targets set Targets set
individual y for every Electricity Standard Electricity Standard
points greater than points greater than
individually forelectric utility.
Act Act
2019 levels 2019 levels in 2020; in 2020;
every electric utility.
increasing by 2 increasing by 2
percentage points percentage points
annuallyannual y for 2021- for 2021-
2029 and by 2.5 2029 and by 2.5
percentage points percentage points
annuallyannual y for 2030-2035
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Bill
Eligible
Selected Distinguishing
Short Title
Number(s)
Final Target
Sources
Feature(s)
for 2030-
2035
Clean Energy Clean Energy
H.R. 7516 H.R. 7516
100% by 2050 100% by 2050
Renewables, Renewables,
Targets set Targets set
individual y for every Innovation and Innovation and
nuclear, CCS, nuclear, CCS,
individually forelectric utility. Emissions
Deployment Deployment Act of Act of
natural gas natural gas
every electric utility.
2020
Emissions
reductions outside
the power reductions outside the power
2020
sector sector
(e.g., electrified
space heating,
electric (e.g., electrified space heating, electric vehicle vehicle
charging, direct air charging, direct air
capture) covered by capture) covered by
the CES. the CES.
American American
H.R. 9036 H.R. 9036
91% by 2039 91% by 2039
Renewables Renewables
Program Program
administered by the Renewable Energy Renewable Energy
administered by theFederal Energy Regulatory
and Efficiency Act and Efficiency Act
Federal Energy
Regulatory
Commission Commission (as (as
opposed to opposed to DOE) Clean Energy Future H.R. 9054 80% reductions in Any source CES comes into effect 10 years Through Innovation power sector with annual after enactment, or earlier if Act of 2020 emissions by 2050 carbon defined market penetration intensity less criteriaDOE)
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Selected
Distinguishing
Short Title
Bill Number(s)
Final Target
Eligible Sources
Feature(s)
Clean Energy Future H.R. 9054
Target set to
Any source with
CES comes into
Through Innovation
achieve 80%
annual carbon
effect 10 years after
Act of 2020
reductions in power intensity less than
enactment, or
sector emissions by
0.825 metric tons
earlier if defined
2050
carbon dioxide per
market penetration
megawatt-hour
criteria are met for
certain technologies
(e.g., coal-fired
are met for certain than 0.825 technologies (e.g., coal-fired metric tons power plants with power plants with
CCS).CCS).
carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour
Source: Prepared by CRS. Prepared by CRS.
Notes: DOE = U.S. Department of Energy; CCS =DOE = U.S. Department of Energy; CCS = fossil fossil fuel-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture fuel-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture
and sequestration.and sequestration. Bil s Bil s for each Congress are listed are listed in chronological order by date of introduction.in chronological order by date of introduction. Final target is the maximumFinal target is the maximum
share of eligibleshare of eligible clean energy sources to be used for electricityclean energy sources to be used for electricity generation required by the CES, and the year by generation required by the CES, and the year by
which that share is to be met.which that share is to be met. Carbon intensity refersCarbon intensity refers to the volume of greenhouse gases to the volume of greenhouse gases released released per unit of per unit of
electricity electricity generation.generation. Bil sBil s may have additional eligibilitymay have additional eligibility requirements requirements for some sources for some sources beyond those listed here (e.g., limitations on (e.g., limitations on
biomass sources,biomass sources, minimum minimum carbon intensity requirementscarbon intensity requirements for for natural gas, consideration of upstream methane emissions for fossil fuelsnatural gas). Some bil s). Some bil s contain additional policy contain additional policy
provisions. provisions.
Other legislation introduced in the Other legislation introduced in the 117th and 116th Congresses would address116th Congress would have addressed energy sources for energy sources for
electricity generation directly (e.g., fossil fuel bans, net-zero emissions target) or indirectly (e.g., electricity generation directly (e.g., fossil fuel bans, net-zero emissions target) or indirectly (e.g.,
tax incentives for certain sources), but these measures are not discussed in this report. This report tax incentives for certain sources), but these measures are not discussed in this report. This report
also does not discuss carbon pricing proposals, although they, too, could also does not discuss carbon pricing proposals, although they, too, couldpotentiallypotential y affect the affect the
share of electricity coming from different sources.share of electricity coming from different sources.5
Other Proposals
Several other CES proposals were released during the 116th Congress.6 Generally, these had fewer
specific policy details compared to the introduced bills. Unlike some introduced bills, none of
these other CES proposals call for 100% renewable energy.
On January 28, 2020, majority leaders of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce
released draft legislative text of the Climate Leadership and Environmental Action for our
Nation’s Future Act (the CLEAN Future Act). Its sponsors describe the CLEAN Future Act as “a
comprehensive proposal of sector-specific and economy-wide solutions to address the climate
510
Potential Considerations A number of stakeholders—including the Biden Administration, some Members of Congress, some climate change advocates, and some utilities—have voiced support for enacting a CES in the 117th Congress, though with some disagreement over policy details.11 Among both policy 10 In carbon pricing proposals, policymakers attach a price to GHG In carbon pricing proposals, policymakers attach a price to GHG emissions or the inputs that create them. A price on emissions or the inputs that create them. A price on
emissions or emissionsemissions or emissions inputs—namely fossil fuels—wouldinputs—namely fossil fuels—would increase the relative price of the more carbon-intensive increase the relative price of the more carbon-intensive
energy sources.energy sources. This T his result is result is expected to spur innovation in less carbonexpected to spur innovation in less carbon -intensive technologies and stimulate other -intensive technologies and stimulate other
behavior that may decrease emissions. A summary of carbon pricing billsbehavior that may decrease emissions. A summary of carbon pricing bills is provided in CRSis provided in CRS Report R45472, Report R45472, Market-
Based Greenhouse GasEmissionEm ission Reduction Legislation: 108th Through 116th117th Congresses, by Jonathan L. Ramseur.
11 See example statements in Ben Geman, “Exclusive: T he Big Push for a Clean Power Mandate,” Axios, April 26, 2021; Miranda Willson, “Clean Electricity Standard: A Boost for Coal?,” E&E News, May 18, 2021; and Zack Budryk, “More T han 75 Companies Ask Congress to Pass Clean Electricity Standard,” The Hill, July 7, 2021.
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supporters and opponents, several concerns and criticisms have been raised against a national CES. To a certain extent, a CES can be designed to address these concerns. In some cases, efforts
to address any one concern could exacerbate others.
One consideration concerns nuclear power and carbon capture. Electricity generation using these technologies general y receives policy support under most CES proposals, often at a level comparable to electricity generation from renewable energy sources. Some environmental justice advocates and others oppose policy support for these technologies for various reasons.12 For example, the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council included nuclear and CCS in
its list of “projects that wil not benefit a community.”13 A CES is widely viewed as being supportive of nuclear power and carbon capture projects, in contrast with a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that supports renewable energy only. Some CES proposals attempt to address environmental justice concerns, either by excluding nuclear and carbon capture or through other provisions. For example, the American Renewable Energy Act of 2021 (H.R. 3959) would establish an RPS that also includes a carve out aimed at incentivizing the development of
renewable energy projects in defined “environmental justice communities,” among others.
A second consideration is electricity affordability, a topic of longstanding interest to Congress and
one receiving particular attention during the COVID-19 pandemic.14 Many studies estimate a CES would increase national average electricity prices compared with what they would be without one. Table 2 summarizes cost estimates from studies of 100% clean energy standards or clean energy standards with comparable goals.15 Some studies attempted to model specific policy details from bil s listed in Table 1, while others model ed 100% CES policies in general. Given the uncertainty in projecting power sector conditions in the future (even over the relatively short
period of 10-15 years), none of these studies individual y is likely to correctly project future costs. However, the range of cost estimates in these studies is likely a good indicator of the range of outcomes should a 100% CES policy be enacted, assuming policy details are general y similar to those assumed in these studies. The range of cost estimates probably do not reflect likely outcomes of the proposed CEPP because that proposal is designed to pass fewer costs to
electricity consumers than a CES.16
12 See discussion and points of view summarized in, for example, Letter from Center for Biological Diversity et al. to Sen. Chuck Schumer, Majority Leader, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, Sen. Joe Manchin, Chairman of the Energy & Natural Resources Committee, and Rep. Frank Pallone, Chairman of the Energy & Commerce Committee, May 12, 2021, at https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/energy-justice/pdfs/2021-5-12_600-Group-Letter-for-RES.pdf; U.S. Congress, House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Environment and Climate Change, The CLEAN Future Act and Environm ental Justice: Protecting Frontline Com m unities, 117th Cong., 1st sess., April 15, 2021; and Anthony Adragna, “Democrats’ Next Big Fight: What Exactly Is Clean Energy?,” Politico, April 30, 2021.
13 White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council, Final Recommendations: Justice40, Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool and Executive Order 12898 Revisions, May 21, 2021, p. 59. 14 For example, many states implemented moratoria on service disconnections for nonpayment (i.e., shut -offs) in 2020 so that individuals could maintain access to electricity during stay-at-home orders. For further discussion, see CRS Report R46401, COVID-19 Electric Utility Disconnections, by Richard J. Campbell and Ashley J. Lawson .
15 One group modelled an 80% clean by 2030 st andard on the grounds that “t he Biden administration goal of 100 percent clean power by 2035 implies an interim goal of at least 80 percent by 2030 .” Mike O’Boyle et al., A National Clean Electricity Standard to Benefit All Am ericans, Energy Innovation, April 2021, p. 1. Some modelling groups identified in Table 2 are collaborations among researchers from several organizations (e.g., the Clean Energy Future s Project). Media and other reports of these studies may refer to them by different names, such as one member of the group. T able 2 excludes studies that looked at decarbonization in general but not a CES specifically. 16 T he proposed Clean Electricity Payment would award payments to utilities that meet clean electricity goals. T his approach is expected to shift costs from electricity customers to federal taxpayers, relative to a CES. Lindsey Walter,
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Table 2. Cost and Benefit Estimates for 100% Clean Energy Standards
Policy Costs,
Policy Benefits,
Relative to
Relative to
Modelling Group
Policy Details
Business-as-Usual
Business-as-Usual
Notes
Resources for the
77% clean in 2035
$106 bil ion
$470 bil ion in
Reported costs and
Future
increase in
reduced climate
benefits are the net
electricity costs;
change impacts;
present value of
$29 bil ion
$226 bil ion in
cumulative 2020-
increased federal
reduced premature
2035 costs and
expenditure for
deaths (due to
benefits.
increased use of
lower levels of co-
energy tax credits
pol utants); $19 bil ion in increased utility profits
Electric Power
100% clean by 2050
50% increase in
not calculated
Study also reports
Research Institute
national average
changes in
annual wholesale
wholesale electricity
electricity price in
prices by region.
2050
Alternative scenarios model a 100% by 2035 CES and variations on policy design elements (e.g., point of regulation, alternative compliance payment).
FTI Consulting
80% clean by 2030
0.25% reduction in
not calculated
Costs reported as
and 100% clean by
2031-2035 average
net GDP impacts,
2035
national GDP
including, for example, economic benefits associated with increased investment in electricity infrastructure. Study also reports impacts in earlier years and by region.
National Bureau of
100% clean by 2035
$1-$4/MWh
not calculated
Study also reports
Economic Research
increase in national
electricity price
average wholesale
changes by state.
electricity price in 2035
Don’t Call It a Standard: What’s Unique About the Clean Electricity Paym ent Program (CEPP), T hird Way, August 12, 2021.
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Policy Costs,
Policy Benefits,
Relative to
Relative to
Modelling Group
Policy Details
Business-as-Usual
Business-as-Usual
Notes
Goldman School of
80% clean by 2030
6% increase in
$1.7 tril ion in
Policy scenario also
Public Policy,
national average
reduced climate
includes increased
GridLab, Energy
wholesale electricity
change and health
electrification of
Innovation
costs in 2030
impacts (from
end uses (e.g.,
power sector
transportation).
reductions only)
Study also reports cost estimates with health and environmental externalities included.
American Action
100% clean by 2035
$1.8-$2.13 tril ion
not calculated
Costs are for
Forum
cumulatively, 2021-
generation assets
2035
only. Study also reports changes in customer utility bil s.
Clean Energy
100% clean by 2040
$342 bil ion
$637 bil ion in
Costs and benefits
Futures Project
reduced climate
are reported as net
change impacts;
present value of
$1.13 tril ion in
cumulative benefits
health impacts
2020-2050. Study also reports air quality improvements by county.
Natural Resources
80% clean by 2030
$17-$22 bil ion
$97-$184 bil ion in
Net present value
Defense Council
or 100% clean by
annual y, on
2030
of costs and
and Environmental
2035 (study does
average, through
benefits are
Defense Fund
not report results
2030
reported as the
for individual
range over multiple
scenarios)
scenarios. Some scenarios include additional policies, such as tax credit extensions. At least one scenario models a Clean Electricity Payment Program.
Sources: Resources for the Future, “Projected Effects of the Clean Energy Standard Act of 2019,” May 2019, at https://www.rff.org/publications/issue-briefs/projected-effects-clean-energy-standard-act-2019/; Electric Power Research Institute, “Analyzing Federal 100% Clean Energy Standards,” February 2021, at https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002020121; FTI Consulting, “Power Market and Economic Impacts of a U.S. Clean Energy Standard,” March 2021, at https://www.remi.com/event/scott-nystrom-power-ma rket s-and-economic-impacts-of-a-u-s-clean-energy-standard-ces/; National Bureau of Economic Research, “Robust Decarbonization of the U.S. Power Sector: Policy Options,” April 2021, at https://www.nber.org/papers/w28677; Goldman School of Public Policy, GridLab, and Energy Innovation, “2030 Report: Powering America’s Clean Economy,” April 2021, at https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2030-Report.pdf; American Action Forum, “The Cost of Clean Generation,” June 2021, at https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/the-cost-of-clean-generation/; Clean Energy Futures, “An 80x30 Clean Electricity Standard: Carbon, Costs, and Health Benefits,” July 2021, at https://cleanenergyfutures.syr.edu/; Natural Resources Defense Council and Environmental Defense Fund, “80% Clean Power by 2030: Achievable With Massive Benefits,” August 2021, at https://www.nrdc.org/experts/arjun-krishnaswami/80-clean-power-2030-achievable-massive-benefits.
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Notes: Some studies model ed policies other than 100% CES, but the model ers identified those policies as being comparable in stringency. Differences among studies include assumptions about business-as-usual conditions; the makeup of clean energy sources used to satisfy policy requirements; cost metrics; policy details; and the levels of greenhouse gas emission reductions. As a result, individual studies cannot necessarily be compared with each other. For simplicity, this table shows total national electricity system costs, or the nearest comparable cost estimate provided. Some studies estimated costs for different geographic scope (e.g., by state) or for a different metric (e.g., customer bil s). The Notes column lists other reported cost estimates as a research aid.
A third consideration is electricity reliability, another issue of longstanding interest to Congress. Blackouts following extreme weather events in 2020 and 2021 reignited debate about whether changing energy sources for electricity generation (i.e., increased use of wind and solar energy, decreased use of coal) pose threats to reliability.17 For example, a House committee held a hearing on the days-long power outages that affected much of Texas in February 2021, and issues of
electric reliability and changing energy sources were discussed.18 Some stakeholders see inclusion of natural gas in a CES as a way to ensure reliability.19 Another option is to exclude from compliance calculations any emissions from power plants that are required for reliability purposes. The CLEAN Future Act (H.R. 1512, as introduced), for example, includes both these
provisions.20
Putting a 100% Target in Context
Current Clean Energy Use As summarized above, most recent CES proposals would require nearly al electricity to come from eligible clean energy sources in the 2035-2050 timeframe. The distinction between “al ” and “nearly al ” arises from the policy details provided in some of the proposals. A 100% target does
not necessarily require 100% of electricity to come from eligible clean sources. For example, a CES might exempt electricity sales from smal utilities or al ow alternative compliance payments.21 The actual amount of clean energy used would be affected by utility compliance
choices, future technology costs, and other factors.
17 Wind and solar energy have different operational characteristics than conventional energy sources (e.g., coal, natural gas, nuclear power), and they are variable in nature. Because the electricity grid was primarily designed to accommodate conventional sources that can be called upon as needed (barring extreme events or regular maintenance requirements), some system design and operational changes may be required to integrate large amounts of wi nd and solar energy. For a discussion of these issues and potential solutions, see CRS Congresses, by Jonathan L. Ramseur.
6 In addition to the other proposals discussed in this report, the Senate Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate
Crisis released a report, The Case for Climate Action: Building a Clean Economy for the American People. The report
identified a CES as a policy that “could guarantee the electric sector’s contribution to meeting the global target of net-
zero by no later than 2050,” but the report did not make a specific recommendation or proposal for a CES. Senate
Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate Crisis, The Case for Climate Action: Building a Clean Economy for the
American People, August 2020, p. 20.
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crisis.”7 Among the provisions in the CLEAN Future Act is a CES with a final target of 100% by
2050.8
On June 30, 2020, Democrats on the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis released a
majority staff report, Solving the Climate Crisis: The Congressional Action Plan for a Clean
Energy Economy and a Healthy, Resilient, and Just America. The report aims to “[lay] out the
Climate Crisis Action Plan, full of detailed, ambitious and actionable climate solutions that
Congress should enact to benefit American families in communities across the nation.”9 Among
the recommendations in the report is that Congress should enact a CES with a final target of
100% by 2040.10
Outside of Congress, President Biden supported a goal of “a carbon pollution-free power sector
by 2035” in his campaign, and has continued to support that goal in his administration. For
example, an executive order issued January 27, 2021, aims to use federal procurement authorities
to “achieve or facilitate a carbon pollution-free electricity sector no later than 2035.”11
Putting a 100% Target in Context
As summarized above, most CES proposals in the 116th Congress would have required nearly all
electricity to come from eligible clean energy sources in the 2035-2050 timeframe. The
distinction between “all” and “nearly all” arises from the policy details provided in some of the
proposals. A 100% target does not necessarily require 100% of electricity to come from eligible
clean sources. For example, a CES might exempt electricity sales from small utilities or allow
alternative compliance payments. The actual amount of clean energy used would be affected by
utility compliance choices, future technology costs, and other factors.
The U.S. electricity system is large and complex, and many power plants and associated
infrastructure have lifetimes of 40 years or more. Experts disagree about the extent to which these
features present cost and feasibility challenges to achieving a 100% CES in three decades or less.
Much of the debate focuses on wind and solar energy because of their unique operating
characteristics.12 Assessing the cost and feasibility of a 100% CES is beyond the scope of this
report. However, this section provides some relevant data and discussion to put a 100% CES
target in context.
7 House Committee on Energy and Commerce, “E&C Leaders Release Draft CLEAN Future Act Legislative Text to
Achieve a 100 Percent Clean Economy,” press release, January 28, 2020, https://energycommerce.house.gov/
newsroom/press-releases/ec-leaders-release-draft-clean-future-act-legislative-text-to-achieve-a-100.
8 Title II-Power, Subtitle A-Federal Clean Electricity Standard, CLEAN Future Act discussion draft,
https://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/files/documents/
0128%20CLEAN%20Future%20Discussion%20Draft.pdf.
9 House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, “Select Committee Democrats Release ‘Solving the Climate Crisis,’ a
Congressional Roadmap for Ambitious Climate Action,” press release, June 30, 2020, https://climatecrisis.house.gov/
news/press-releases/climate-plan-press-release.
10 Solving the Climate Crisis: The Congressional Action Plan for a Clean Energy Economy and a Healthy, Resilient,
and Just America, p. 4, https://climatecrisis.house.gov/sites/climatecrisis.house.gov/files/
Climate%20Crisis%20Action%20Plan.pdf.
11 Executive Order 14008, “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” 86 Federal Register 7619, February 1,
2021. Campaign quote comes from https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/#, accessed January 15, 2020.
12 For more information on issues associated with using high levels of wind and solar, see CRS In Focus IF11257, In Focus IF11257,
Variable Renewable Energy: An Introduction, by Ashley J. Lawson, by Ashley J. Lawson, and CRS Insight IN11065, An Electric Grid Based
on 100% Renewable Energy?, by Richard J. Campbell.
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How much clean energy was used in the U.S. electricity sector in 2019.
18 U.S. Congress, House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Power Struggle: Exam ining the 2021 Texas Grid Failure, 117th Cong., 1st sess., March 24, 2021. Most experts do not identify changing energy sources as a main contributor to the T exas outages, though some observers see the two issues as being connected. For further discussion, see CRS Insight IN11608, Power Outages in Texas, by Richard J. Campbell. 19 See, for example, Molly Christian and Zack Hale, “Gas T reatment, Infrastructure T ensions Hamper Clean Electricity Standard Efforts,” S&P Global Market Intelligence, June 10, 2021. 20 T he CLEAN Future Act would set an emissions intensity threshold for eligibility, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with fuel production and transport. Some natural gas-fired generators meet the eligibility threshold when considering onsite emissions. It is unclear how many such generators would be eligible after accounting for upstream emissions because the determination would be made pursuant to a to -be-determined U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standard. See the CLEAN Future Act, §204(d). 21 T he point of regulation can also affect the extent to which a 100% target requires 100% of electric ity to come from eligible sources. Regulating load serving entities (typically, distribution utilities), as is frequently the case, can leave “headroom” under the policy due to losses associated with electricity transmission and distribution. See discussio n in
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How much clean energy was used in the U.S. electricity sector in 2020? The answer depends ? The answer depends
upon what sources are considered to be clean, as shown iupon what sources are considered to be clean, as shown in Figure 1 and discussed in the and discussed in the
following paragraphs. In following paragraphs. In20192020, renewable energy fueled , renewable energy fueled 1821% of U.S. electricity, while renewable % of U.S. electricity, while renewable
energy plus nuclear power fueled energy plus nuclear power fueled38%.1340%.22 These sources together with natural gas fueled These sources together with natural gas fueled 7680% of % of
U.S. electricity in U.S. electricity in20192020. .
Figure 1.20192020 U.S. Electricity Generation by Source Type
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, “Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy
Source: Total (Al Sectors) Monthly Energy Review, “Table 7.2a. Electricity Net Generation: Total (Al Sectors)” and “Table 10.6. Solar Electricity Net Generation.” .”
Notes: Other includes petroleum Other includes petroleum and gases derived from fossiland gases derived from fossil fuels. Detailsfuels. Details of energy source classificationof energy source classification are are
provided in this report and in the EIA source. provided in this report and in the EIA source.
Figure 1 uses the following classifications. Renewable energy means uses the following classifications. Renewable energy meansall al renewable energy renewable energy
sources, including sources, includingsmallsmal -scale and distributed sources (e.g., rooftop solar), -scale and distributed sources (e.g., rooftop solar), all al hydropower, and hydropower, and all
al biomass. Some biomass. SomeCES bills introduced in the 116th Congressintroduced CES bil s would limit the eligibility would limit the eligibility of of
hydropower and biomass, for hydropower and biomass, for example by specifying types of eligibleexample by specifying types of eligible biomass feedstocks, but biomass feedstocks, but
those limitations are not considered here. Natural gas means any power plant using primarily those limitations are not considered here. Natural gas means any power plant using primarily
natural gas, regardless of technology type or carbon intensity. Some natural gas, regardless of technology type or carbon intensity. SomeCES bills introduced in the
116th Congress would allowbil s would al ow natural gas plants to be eligible natural gas plants to be eligible if they met certain carbon intensity if they met certain carbon intensity
thresholds, but those limitations are not considered here. Should Congress debate a national CES, thresholds, but those limitations are not considered here. Should Congress debate a national CES,
it could set eligibilityit could set eligibility criteria based on energy source, carbon criteria based on energy source, carbon
intensity, or other characteristics.
State Targets and Utility Commitments As noted above, nine states plus the District of Columbia have enacted legislation to achieve
carbon-free electricity generation, and at least eight additional states have goals or executive orders targeting carbon-free electricity generation. Beyond these state requirements, some electric Electric Power Research Institute, “Analyzing Federal 100% Clean Energy Standards,” February 2021, available at https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002020121.
22 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, T able 7.2a and T able 10.6, July 2021.
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companies have made voluntary commitments to reduce GHG emissions from their electricity
generation.23
Combined, these state targets and utility commitments cover 77% of U.S. electricity sales.24 The
most stringent of these commitments—the carbon-free state targets and the utility commitments
of at least an 80% reduction in GHG emissions—cover 69% of U.S. electricity sales.25intensity, or other characteristics.
13 This estimate does not include the 3,959,824 megawatt-hours (MWh) generated in 2019 by Unit 8 of the W.A. Parish
power plant in Texas, widely known as Petra Nova. That unit is equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
capable of sequestering about 33% of the unit’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Petra Nova’s output was 0.1% of total
U.S. electricity generation in 2019. For readability, the main body of this report rounds values to zero decimal places
and does not identify Petra Nova’s generation. Petra Nova’s operators shut down the CCS equipment in 2020, citing
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Generation data is from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form
EIA-923, https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia923/. Additional information about Petra Nova comes from EIA,
Petra Nova Is One of Two Carbon Capture and Sequestration Power Plants in the World, October 31, 2017.
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Outlook for Clean Energy in the U.S. Electricity
System
The possible future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect (among other things) The possible future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect (among other things)
congressional perceptions related to the necessity or feasibility of a CES. Estimating the future congressional perceptions related to the necessity or feasibility of a CES. Estimating the future
energy system makeup energy system makeuptypically is challenging, especiallytypical y is chal enging, especial y over multi-decadal periods. The over multi-decadal periods. The
COVID-19 pandemic and other factors make such outlooks COVID-19 pandemic and other factors make such outlooksespecially challengingespecial y chal enging. .
One prominent estimate of future changes in the U.S. energy system is made each year by the One prominent estimate of future changes in the U.S. energy system is made each year by the
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).14 In
26 The AEO accounts for most federal and state energy policies (e.g., state CES policies) in place at the time of its preparation. In February 2021, EIA released its first long-term projections accounting for the pandemic. In EIA’s February 2021, EIA released its first long-term projections accounting for the pandemic. In EIA’s
assessment, the pandemic’s impacts on the electricity sector assessment, the pandemic’s impacts on the electricity sectorwill wil be mostly felt in the next few be mostly felt in the next few
years. After that, long-term sectoral trends return to dominance: “EIA does not project long-term years. After that, long-term sectoral trends return to dominance: “EIA does not project long-term
structural changes in electricity demand resulting from the pandemic, structural changes in electricity demand resulting from the pandemic, and the AEO2021 and the AEO2021
Reference case projects that demand largely returns to 2019 levels by 2025.”15
In EIA’s 2021 projections, the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable
sources in 2050 varied from 33% to 57%, depending on factors such as future energy prices and
economic growth. The share from non-emitting sources (i.e., renewables and nuclear) in 2050
varied from 44% to 67% in the projections, and the share from non-emitting sources together with
natural gas varied from 86% to 93%.16 Figure 2 compares EIA’s 2021 projections for the share of
total U.S. electricity generation coming from these different source types. The classifications in
Figure 2 match those in Figure 1, and are used to provide context.
14 For an overview of the Annual Energy Outlook, see CRS In Focus IF11691, The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO): A
Brief Overview, by Ashley J. Lawson and Kelsi Bracmort.
15 EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 Narrative, February 2021, p. 12, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/
AEO_Narrative_2021.pdf.
16 CRS calculations based on data from EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021, February 3, 2021. EIA’s projections do not
include projections for CCS.
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Figure 2. Projected Share of Total U.S. Electricity Generation, by Source Type
Source: CRS calculations based on data from EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021, February 3, 2021.
Notes: Details of energy source classification are provided in this report and in the EIA source. EIA side cases
include alternative assumptions about future energy supply and prices, technology costs, and economic growth.
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It is unknown how the COVID-19 pandemic ultimately will affect clean energy’s trajectory,
because the pandemic is ongoing and the economic impacts could still change. In any case, two
key factors affecting the share of clean energy in the future U.S. electricity system are (1) the
pace of additions of new clean energy, and (2) total electricity demand.17 Legislative responses to
the pandemic or other issues such as climate change could affect either or both of these factors,
increasing the uncertainty in long-term projections.
The pace of clean energy additions is affected by the pace of new power plant construction
overall, and the share of clean energy within new power plants. New power plants are planned
when needed to meet increasing electricity demand, but demand in the United States overall was
mostly unchanged from 2005 to 2019.18 Generally, electricity demand increases with increasing
population and economic activity, though energy efficiency and conservation can offset these
factors. New power plants also are planned to replace retired power plants as part of the natural
aging and turnover of the U.S. power plant fleet.
While a number of factors affect the share of clean energy within new power plant additions,
technology and fuel costs are two main drivers. Power plant developers generally choose an
energy source primarily based on economics. In other words, the sources that usually are used by
new power plants are the ones that can generate electricity at the lowest cost per unit of
electricity, inclusive of tax incentives or other financial factors. Policies, like state CES
requirements, also can influence decisions about new power plants. Economics and policy have
been favorable for new power plants using wind and solar energy for several years, and most
experts expect that will continue. For example, wind and solar are expected to make up 70% of
new capacity additions in 2021.19
Currently, when overall demand for electricity decreases, the share of clean energy goes up, all
else being equal. This outcome is driven mostly by wind and solar energy. Those sources have
relatively low operating costs (because the “fuel” is free), so they typically are used to generate
electricity whenever the wind is blowing and the sun is shining. In other words, once a power
plant using wind or solar is built, it often operates to the maximum extent possible, for economic
reasons. Decreases in electricity demand disproportionately affect non-renewable sources (e.g.,
coal) because of their relatively higher operating costs. These economic factors are part of the
reason why generation from coal-fired power plants fell in 2020.20
As noted above, Congress could enact non-CES legislation that could affect the pace of additions
of new clean energy, total electricity demand, or both. For example, legislation could influence
power plant developers’ choice about energy sources by altering their relative prices in the market
17 Retirement of existing clean energy power plants is another factor, mostly for nuclear power plants. For more
information, see CRS Report R42853, Nuclear Energy: Overview of Congressional Issues, by Mark Holt. The relative
share of different energy sources used for electricity additionally might be affected by other factors such as state
policies, but those are not discussed in this report.
18 From 2005 to 2019, total annual U.S. electricity generation was 4.1 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) on average, with a
high of 4.2 trillion kWh in 2018 and a low of 4.0 trillion kWh in 2009. EIA, Electricity Data Browser. Despite national
trends, some regions of the country may be experiencing electricity demand growth and a corresponding higher
buildout of new power plants.
19 EIA, Renewables Account for Most New U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity in 2021, January 11, 2021,
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416.
20 According to EIA, total U.S. electricity consumption fell an estimated 4% in 2020, compared to 2019 levels. At the
same time, the share of generation from coal fell from 24% in 2019 to an estimated 20% in 2020. In contrast, the share
of generation from natural gas and renewables increased from 2019 to 2020. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook,
December 2020, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/dec20.pdf.
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Reference case projects that demand largely returns to 2019 levels by 2025.”27
23 T hese utility decarbonization goals vary in stringency, scope, and final target date. T he most stringent decarbonization goal is for 100% carbon-free electricity, also referred to as carbon neutral, net zero, or 100% clean. Different terms for decarbonization are sometimes used interchangeably, though they can imply different implementation options. For example, 100% carbon -free generally means all generation sources will be carbon-free, while carbon neutral and net zero potentially leave open the possibility of offsetting some emissions with reductions outside the utility’s generation supply (e.g., retirement of renewable energy credits [RECs] from other states). Many decarbonization target dates are between 2040 and 2050, outside the typical planning horizon for utilities. As a result, many decarbonization targets—regardless of what they are called—do not have associated implementation plans. Because of this uncertainty, it is difficult to assess meaningful differences among terms. 24 T otal electricity sales reported by the EIA. T he most recent annual data available are for 2019. CRS estimated the share of total U.S. electricity sales covered by a utility commitment by compiling lists of companies with a commitment from three sources: Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), “Utility Carbon Reduction T racker,” accessed August 23, 2021, at https://sepapower.org/utility-transformation-challenge/utility-carbon-reduction-tracker/; Clean Air T ask Force (CAT F), “State and Utility Decarbonization Commitments,” October 1, 2020; and Jeffrey Ryser, “Utility Emissions, Renewables Goals Accelerate, But Coal Retirements May Be T oo Slow,” S&P Global, February 25, 2021. In some cases, the names of companies provided by SEPA, CAT F, or S&P Global do not match the utility names in the EIA dataset. In these cases, CRS identified corresponding utilities (an exact name match was required to analyze the EIA data) using utility websites and other public documents. Some identified utilities are also covered by a state target. Sales from these utilities were counted once in the final estimate.
25 For this analysis, CRS assessed utility target stringency based on its characterization by SEPA, CAT F, and S&P Global. CRS did not independently verify utility targets. Most identified utility targets are based on an absolute (i.e., mass-based) reduction in GHG emissions. For example, a utility might target a 90% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from 2005 levels by 2050. Some targets are based on relative (i.e., intensity -based) reduction in GHG emissions. In theory, intensity-based reduction targets can be achieved without a reduction in absolute emissions. Estimating future GHG emissions is beyond the scope of this analysis, so no attempt was made to “convert” intensity -based targets into absolute targets. For example, a utility migh t target a 70% reduction in GHG intensity from 2005 levels by 2040. For purposes of estimating the share of electricity sales covered by commitments, that target is treated the same as a 70% mass-based reduction target.
26 For an overview of the Annual Energy Outlook, see CRS In Focus IF11691, The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO): A Brief Overview, by Ashley J. Lawson and Kelsi Bracmort . 27 EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 Narrative, February 2021, p. 12, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/
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In EIA’s 2021 projections, the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2050 varies from 33% to 57%, depending on factors such as future energy prices and economic growth. The share from non-emitting sources (i.e., renewables and nuclear) in 2050 varied from 44% to 67% in the projections, and the share from non-emitting sources together with natural gas varied from 86% to 93%.28 Figure 2 compares EIA’s 2021 projections for the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from these different source types. The classifications in
Figure 2 match those in Figure 1, and are used to provide context.
AEO_Narrative_2021.pdf. 28 CRS calculations based on data from EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021, February 3, 2021. EIA’s projections do not include projections for CCS.
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
Figure 2. Projected Share of Total U.S. Electricity Generation, by Source Type
Source: CRS calculations based on data from EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2021, February 3, 2021. Notes: Details of energy source classification are provided in this report and in the EIA source. EIA side cases include alternative assumptions about future energy supply and prices, technology costs, and economic growth.
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
Concluding Observations Congressional debate on a national CES is ongoing, including consideration of a CEPP to achieve substantively similar goals through a different mechanism. Other issues being debated by the
117th Congress, such as infrastructure, could also affect future GHG emissions from the power sector. For example, non-CES legislation could influence power plant developers’ choice about energy sources by altering their relative prices in the market (e.g., tax incentives to lower prices for certain sources or carbon pricing to increase prices for (e.g., tax incentives to lower prices for certain sources or carbon pricing to increase prices for
certain sources). Legislation also could affect electricity demand by increasing use of electricity certain sources). Legislation also could affect electricity demand by increasing use of electricity
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
in the economy (e.g., for transportation) or decreasing electricity demand by promoting efficiency in the economy (e.g., for transportation) or decreasing electricity demand by promoting efficiency
measures. Legislation not directly measures. Legislation not directly targeted at the electricity system also could affect the outlook targeted at the electricity system also could affect the outlook
for clean energy in the U.S. electricity system. For example, legislation affecting for clean energy in the U.S. electricity system. For example, legislation affectingoverall
overal economic activity could affect future electricity demand, and infrastructure policy could influence economic activity could affect future electricity demand, and infrastructure policy could influence
the private sector’s decisions about what energy sources to use for electricity generation. Also, the private sector’s decisions about what energy sources to use for electricity generation. Also,
non-congressionalnoncongressional actions (e.g., executive actions, state policies) affect the U.S. electricity actions (e.g., executive actions, state policies) affect the U.S. electricity
system. system. For example, the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission initiated a rulemaking process in July 2021 aimed at “improv[ing] transmission planning and cost al ocation and generator interconnection processes
as the nation transitions to a cleaner energy future.”29
In short, numerous policies the 117th Congress might consider (and In short, numerous policies the 117th Congress might consider (and non-congressional
noncongressional actions as actions aswellwel ) could affect the future makeup of the U.S. electricity system. Should Congress ) could affect the future makeup of the U.S. electricity system. Should Congress
also choose also choose to debate a CES, the interactions among some or to debate a CES, the interactions among some orall al of these factors might be of these factors might be
relevant. relevant.
Author Information
Ashley J. Lawson Ashley J. Lawson
Analyst in Energy Policy Analyst in Energy Policy
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report shouldnotn ot be relied upon for purposes other be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
29 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “News Release: FERC Begins Reform Process to Build the T ransmission System of the Future,” July 15, 2021. Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
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1013
117th Congress
Ashley J. Lawson
For many years, policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been of interest to For many years, policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been of interest to
Analyst in Energy Policy Analyst in Energy Policy
Congress. Congressional and constituent interest continues in the 117th Congress. One option to Congress. Congressional and constituent interest continues in the 117th Congress. One option to
reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation is reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation is
A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes called a clean electricity standard, is a policy that A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes called a clean electricity standard, is a policy that
requires a minimum share of electricity to be generated from eligible “clean” sources. No universal definition of clean energy requires a minimum share of electricity to be generated from eligible “clean” sources. No universal definition of clean energy
exists, and proposals differ in what technologies are included. Some proposals, usually referred to as a renewable portfolio exists, and proposals differ in what technologies are included. Some proposals, usually referred to as a renewable portfolio
standard (RPS), include only certain renewable energy sources (e.g., solar), while other proposals also include nuclear power, standard (RPS), include only certain renewable energy sources (e.g., solar), while other proposals also include nuclear power,
fossil fuels equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, certain natural gas technologies, or other energy fossil fuels equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, certain natural gas technologies, or other energy
sources. As of 2020, thirty states and the District of Columbia have implemented a CES, including 10 jurisdictions that will sources. As of 2020, thirty states and the District of Columbia have implemented a CES, including 10 jurisdictions that will
ultimately require 100% of covered electricity sales to come from eligible clean energy sources. ultimately require 100% of covered electricity sales to come from eligible clean energy sources.
In addition, eight states have nonbinding goals of carbon-free electricity, and many utilities have committed to reducing their GHG emissions to varying degrees and over different time frames. State targets and utility goals cover 77% of total U.S. electricity sales, with 69% of total sales covered by a carbon-free target or goal. Members of Congress have demonstrated a long-standing
least to 1997. None has been enacted. Most recently, least to 1997. None has been enacted. Most recently,
national CES (sometimes in conjunction with other policies). The measures national CES (sometimes in conjunction with other policies). The measures
implementation details. For example, one bill would implementation details. For example, one bill would
energy sources by energy sources by
GHG GHG emissions. The 116th Congress considered but did not enact seven similar CES bills. The Biden Administration has expressed support for a 100% CES as part of its commitment to reduce U.S. GHG emissions by 50%-52% from 2005 levels by 2030. Work is underway among some Members of Congress to develop a Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) to help achieve this goal. The proposed CEPP would aim to achieve the same goals as a CES but through a different policy s tructure (one designed to meet requirements for passage through budget reconciliation). For context, renewable sources made up 21% of U.S. electricity generation in 2020, nuclear power made up 20%, natural gas made up 40%, and coal (without CCS) made up 19
projected the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2050 might vary from 33% to 57%, projected the share of total U.S. electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2050 might vary from 33% to 57%,
depending on factors such as future energy prices and economic growth. The share from depending on factors such as future energy prices and economic growth. The share from all non-emitting sources (i.e., non-emitting sources (i.e.,
renewables and nuclear) in 2050 varied from 44% to 67% in the projections, and the share from nonrenewables and nuclear) in 2050 varied from 44% to 67% in the projections, and the share from non -emitting sources together with natural gas varied from 86% to 93%. Concerns and criticisms raised against a CES include its potential to reduce electric reliability, increase electricity rates , and negatively impact environmental justice efforts. To a certain extent, a CES policy can be designed to address these concerns, and some bills have included provisions to do so. Efforts to address one impact could exacerbate others, though u ncertainty remains on potential impacts of any specific policy. For example, multiple studies have evaluated the cost of achieving a 100% CES policy, with estimates ranging from $106 billion to over $2 trillion in cumulative costs. Some studies have also estimated monetary benefits of a 100% CES, finding $715 billion to $1.7 trillion in cumulative benefits. In all cases where costs and benefits were both estimated, studies found that benefits outweighed costs. The future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect congressional perceptions of the necessity or feasibility of a CES. Estimating the future energy system makeup typically is challenging, especially over 15 years or more (i.e., the time periods covered by recent CES proposals). Another complicating factor is the possibility that the 117th Congress could change U.S. energy policy (not including consideration of a CES). For example, infrastructure legislation under consideration aims to accelerate deployment of certain kinds of clean energy technologies. Additionally , noncongressional action, such as executive actions or state policies, could affect the U.S. electricity system
choose to debate a CES. choose to debate a CES.
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Bills Introduced in the 117th and 116th Congresses .............................................
Outlook for Clean Energy in the U.S. Electricity System ............................................... 10 Concluding Observations ...............................................
Figures
Figure 1.
Figure 2. Projected Share of Total U.S. Electricity Generation, by Source Type ......................
12 Tables
Table 1. National Clean Energy Standard (CES) Legislative Proposals
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
Introduction
Congress continues to study and discuss a range of policies to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) Congress continues to study and discuss a range of policies to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, and the Biden Administration has made reducing GHG emissions a priority. Several emissions, and the Biden Administration has made reducing GHG emissions a priority. Several
legislativelegislative
U.S. electricity system, is a clean energy standard. U.S. electricity system, is a clean energy standard.
A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes A clean energy standard (CES), sometimes
share of U.S. electricity generated from qualified clean energy sources. No agreed-upon definition share of U.S. electricity generated from qualified clean energy sources. No agreed-upon definition
of “clean energy” exists, so the exact set of energy sources supported by a CES proposal is one of of “clean energy” exists, so the exact set of energy sources supported by a CES proposal is one of
its defining characteristics. Members of Congress have introduced legislation to establish a its defining characteristics. Members of Congress have introduced legislation to establish a
national clean energy standard in every Congress since at least the 105th (1997-1998).1 national clean energy standard in every Congress since at least the 105th (1997-1998).1
eligible clean energy sources: California, Colorado, the 1 Seven of these measures1 Seven of these measures
environmental legislation. No CES provision wasenvironmental legislation. No CES provision was
A Brief History
alternative names such as renewablealternative names such as renewable
renewablerenewable
nuclear power. Most policy considerations apply equally to RPS or CES.nuclear power. Most policy considerations apply equally to RPS or CES.
term CESterm CES
predominant usage in the proposals in the 116th predominant usage in the proposals in the 116th
Electricity Portfolio Standards: Background, Design
Portfolio Standards and Clean Energy Standards, September 2020. , September 2020.
from renewablefrom renewable
100% CES,100% CES,
standard” in fullstandard” in full
terms “terms “ Energy” and “Environmental Protection.” Some bills contained policy provisions other than CES, but those Energy” and “Environmental Protection.” Some bills contained policy provisions other than CES, but those
other policies are not other policies are not
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Clean Energy Standards: Selected Issues for the 117th Congress
Table 1. National Clean Energy Standard (CES) Legislative Proposals in the 117th and 116th Congresses Bill Eligible Selected Distinguishing Short Title Number(s) Final Target Sources Feature(s) 117th Congress CLEAN Future Act H.R. 1512 100% by 2035 Renewables, Targets set individual y for every nuclear, CCS, electric utility. Certain sources natural gas must account for GHG emissions during production and transport of fuel. Direct air capture eligible for credits. Eligible sources must meet defined labor standards. American H.R. 3959 70% by 2030 Renewables, Carve outs for distributed Renewable Energy excluding generation and generation Act of 2021 existing located in defined impacted hydropower communities. Clean Energy Future H.R. 4153 80% reductions in Any source The CES comes into effect 10 Through Innovation power sector with annual years after enactment, or earlier Act of 2021 emissions by 2050 carbon if defined market penetration intensity less criteria are met for certain than 0.82 technologies (e.g., coal-fired metric tons power plants with CCS). carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour Clean Energy H.R. 4309 100% by 2050 Renewables, Targets set individual y for every Innovation and nuclear, CCS, electric utility. Emissions Deployment Act of natural gas reductions outside the power 2021 sector (e.g., electrified space heating, electric vehicle charging, direct air capture) covered by the CES. 116th Congress Climate Solutions H.R. 330 100% by 2035 Renewables Additional policy details not set Act of 2019 in legislation; instead, to be determined by DOE regulations. Clean Energy S. 1359 / H.R. 100% by 2050, or Renewables, Targets set individual y for every Standard Act of 2597 potential y later for nuclear, CCS, electric utility up to 90% before 2019 some utilities natural gas 2040, then increasing 1 increasing 1
percentage point percentage point
each year after each year after
utility reaches 90%. utility reaches 90%.
Renewable Renewable
S. 1974 S. 1974
1.5 percentage 1.5 percentage
Renewables Renewables
Targets set Targets set
individual y for every Electricity Standard Electricity Standard
points greater than points greater than
Act Act
2019 levels 2019 levels
percentage points percentage points
2029 and by 2.5 2029 and by 2.5
percentage points percentage points
H.R. 7516 H.R. 7516
100% by 2050 100% by 2050
Renewables, Renewables,
Targets set Targets set
individual y for every Innovation and Innovation and
nuclear, CCS, nuclear, CCS,
Deployment Deployment
natural gas natural gas
charging, direct air charging, direct air
capture) covered by capture) covered by
the CES. the CES.
American American
H.R. 9036 H.R. 9036
91% by 2039 91% by 2039
Renewables Renewables
Program Program
administered by the Renewable Energy Renewable Energy
and Efficiency Act and Efficiency Act
opposed to opposed to DOE) Clean Energy Future H.R. 9054 80% reductions in Any source CES comes into effect 10 years Through Innovation power sector with annual after enactment, or earlier if Act of 2020 emissions by 2050 carbon defined market penetration intensity less criteria
are met for certain than 0.825 technologies (e.g., coal-fired metric tons power plants with power plants with
Source: Prepared by CRS. Prepared by CRS.
Notes: DOE = U.S. Department of Energy; CCS =DOE = U.S. Department of Energy; CCS =
and sequestration.and sequestration.
share of eligibleshare of eligible
which that share is to be met.which that share is to be met.
biomass sources,biomass sources,
provisions. provisions.
Other legislation introduced in the Other legislation introduced in the 117th and 116th Congresses would address
electricity generation directly (e.g., fossil fuel bans, net-zero emissions target) or indirectly (e.g., electricity generation directly (e.g., fossil fuel bans, net-zero emissions target) or indirectly (e.g.,
tax incentives for certain sources), but these measures are not discussed in this report. This report tax incentives for certain sources), but these measures are not discussed in this report. This report
also does not discuss carbon pricing proposals, although they, too, could also does not discuss carbon pricing proposals, although they, too, could
share of electricity coming from different sources.share of electricity coming from different sources.
emissions or emissionsemissions or emissions
energy sources.energy sources.
behavior that may decrease emissions. A summary of carbon pricing billsbehavior that may decrease emissions. A summary of carbon pricing bills
Based Greenhouse Gas
Variable Renewable Energy: An Introduction, by Ashley J. Lawson, by Ashley J. Lawson
upon what sources are considered to be clean, as shown iupon what sources are considered to be clean, as shown in Figure 1 and discussed in the and discussed in the
following paragraphs. In following paragraphs. In
energy plus nuclear power fueled energy plus nuclear power fueled
U.S. electricity in U.S. electricity in
Figure 1.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Notes: Other includes petroleum Other includes petroleum
provided in this report and in the EIA source. provided in this report and in the EIA source.
Figure 1 uses the following classifications. Renewable energy means uses the following classifications. Renewable energy means
sources, including sources, including
al biomass. Some biomass. Some
hydropower and biomass, for hydropower and biomass, for example by specifying types of eligibleexample by specifying types of eligible
those limitations are not considered here. Natural gas means any power plant using primarily those limitations are not considered here. Natural gas means any power plant using primarily
natural gas, regardless of technology type or carbon intensity. Some natural gas, regardless of technology type or carbon intensity. Some
thresholds, but those limitations are not considered here. Should Congress debate a national CES, thresholds, but those limitations are not considered here. Should Congress debate a national CES,
it could set eligibilityit could set eligibility
Outlook for Clean Energy in the U.S. Electricity
System
The possible future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect (among other things) The possible future makeup of the U.S. electricity system might affect (among other things)
congressional perceptions related to the necessity or feasibility of a CES. Estimating the future congressional perceptions related to the necessity or feasibility of a CES. Estimating the future
energy system makeup energy system makeup
COVID-19 pandemic and other factors make such outlooks COVID-19 pandemic and other factors make such outlooks
One prominent estimate of future changes in the U.S. energy system is made each year by the One prominent estimate of future changes in the U.S. energy system is made each year by the
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).
26 The AEO accounts for most federal and state energy policies (e.g., state CES policies) in place at the time of its preparation. In February 2021, EIA released its first long-term projections accounting for the pandemic. In EIA’s February 2021, EIA released its first long-term projections accounting for the pandemic. In EIA’s
assessment, the pandemic’s impacts on the electricity sector assessment, the pandemic’s impacts on the electricity sector
years. After that, long-term sectoral trends return to dominance: “EIA does not project long-term years. After that, long-term sectoral trends return to dominance: “EIA does not project long-term
structural changes in electricity demand resulting from the pandemic, structural changes in electricity demand resulting from the pandemic, and the AEO2021 and the AEO2021
certain sources). Legislation also could affect electricity demand by increasing use of electricity certain sources). Legislation also could affect electricity demand by increasing use of electricity
measures. Legislation not directly measures. Legislation not directly targeted at the electricity system also could affect the outlook targeted at the electricity system also could affect the outlook
for clean energy in the U.S. electricity system. For example, legislation affecting for clean energy in the U.S. electricity system. For example, legislation affecting
overal economic activity could affect future electricity demand, and infrastructure policy could influence economic activity could affect future electricity demand, and infrastructure policy could influence
the private sector’s decisions about what energy sources to use for electricity generation. Also, the private sector’s decisions about what energy sources to use for electricity generation. Also,
noncongressional actions as actions as
also choose also choose to debate a CES, the interactions among some or to debate a CES, the interactions among some or
relevant. relevant.
Author Information
Ashley J. Lawson Ashley J. Lawson
Analyst in Energy Policy Analyst in Energy Policy
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
29 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “News Release: FERC Begins Reform Process to Build the T ransmission System of the Future,” July 15, 2021. Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
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