Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing
~~March 5~~May 18, 2021 , 2021
Challenges, and U.S. Interests
Kristin Archick
Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern
Specialist in European Specialist in European
Ireland, which is one of four component “nations” of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict, Ireland, which is one of four component “nations” of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict,
Affairs Affairs
often referred to as “the Troubles,” has its origins in the 1921 division of Ireland and has often referred to as “the Troubles,” has its origins in the 1921 division of Ireland and has

reflected a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities. Protestants in reflected a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities. Protestants in
Northern Ireland largely define themselves as British and support remaining part of the UK Northern Ireland largely define themselves as British and support remaining part of the UK

( (unionists). Most Catholics in Northern Ireland consider themselves Irish, and many desire a ). Most Catholics in Northern Ireland consider themselves Irish, and many desire a
united Ireland (united Ireland (nationalists). ).
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace
process. For decades, the United States has provided development aid through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI). In process. For decades, the United States has provided development aid through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI). In
recent years, congressional hearings have focused on the peace process, police reforms, human rights, and addressing recent years, congressional hearings have focused on the peace process, police reforms, human rights, and addressing
Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed dealing with the past). Some Members also are concerned about how ). Some Members also are concerned about how
Brexit—the UK’s withdrawal as a member of the European Union (EU) in January 2020—is affecting Northern Ireland. —the UK’s withdrawal as a member of the European Union (EU) in January 2020—is affecting Northern Ireland.
The Peace Agreement: Progress to Date and Ongoing Challenges
In 1998, the UK and Irish governments and key Northern Ireland political parties reached a negotiated political settlement. In 1998, the UK and Irish governments and key Northern Ireland political parties reached a negotiated political settlement.
The resulting Good Friday Agreement, or Belfast Agreement, recognized that a change in Northern Ireland’s constitutional The resulting Good Friday Agreement, or Belfast Agreement, recognized that a change in Northern Ireland’s constitutional
status as part of the UK can come about only with the consent of a majority of the people in Northern Ireland (as well as with status as part of the UK can come about only with the consent of a majority of the people in Northern Ireland (as well as with
the consent of a majority in Ireland). The agreement called for devolved government—the transfer of specified powers from the consent of a majority in Ireland). The agreement called for devolved government—the transfer of specified powers from
London to Belfast—with a Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share London to Belfast—with a Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share
power. It also contained provisions on decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary weapons, policing, human rights, UK power. It also contained provisions on decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary weapons, policing, human rights, UK
security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of prisoners. security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of prisoners.
Despite a much-improved security situation since 1998, full implementation of the peace agreement has been difficult. For Despite a much-improved security situation since 1998, full implementation of the peace agreement has been difficult. For
years, decommissioning and police reforms were key sticking points that generated instability in the devolved government. In years, decommissioning and police reforms were key sticking points that generated instability in the devolved government. In
2007, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, the nationalist political party traditionally associated 2007, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, the nationalist political party traditionally associated
with the Irish Republican Army (IRA), reached a landmark power-sharing deal. Tensions and distrust persisted, howeverwith the Irish Republican Army (IRA), reached a landmark power-sharing deal. Tensions and distrust persisted, however,
~~between the unionist and nationalist communities and their respective political parties. Ten years later~~. In 2017, the devolved , the devolved
government led by the DUP and Sinn Fein collapsed, prompting snap Assembly elections government led by the DUP and Sinn Fein collapsed, prompting snap Assembly elections ~~in March 2017~~ amid several amid several
contentious regional issues and unease in Northern Ireland about Brexit. Negotiations to reestablish the devolved government contentious regional issues and unease in Northern Ireland about Brexit. Negotiations to reestablish the devolved government
repeatedly stalled. The DUP and Sinn Fein agreed to form a new devolved government in January 2020, but the long impasse repeatedly stalled. The DUP and Sinn Fein agreed to form a new devolved government in January 2020, but the long impasse
renewed concerns about the fragility of the peace process. Northern Ireland also faces a number of broad renewed concerns about the fragility of the peace process. Northern Ireland also faces a number of broad ~~challenges~~issues in its in its
search for peace and reconciliation, including reducing sectarian divisions, dealing with the past, addressing lingering search for peace and reconciliation, including reducing sectarian divisions, dealing with the past, addressing lingering
concerns about paramilitary and dissident activity, and promoting further economic development. concerns about paramilitary and dissident activity, and promoting further economic development.
~~Brexit and Northern Ireland~~
~~Brexit may have significant political and economic repercussions for Northern Ireland. The future of the border between~~
~~Northern Ireland and Ireland was a central issue in the UK’s withdrawal negotiations with the EU~~In late March and early April 2021, the outbreak of riots and unrest in parts of Northern Ireland—widely characterized as the worst violence in years—highlighted many of the challenges and underlying fault lines that remain in Northern Ireland. Brexit and Northern Ireland Brexit has added to political and societal divisions within Northern Ireland. Preventing a hard border (with customs checks and physical infrastructure) on the island of Ireland was a key imperative and a major stumbling block in the UK-EU withdrawal negotiations. Since 1998, as security . Since 1998, as security
checkpoints were dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement and because both the UK and Ireland belonged to the checkpoints were dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement and because both the UK and Ireland belonged to the
EU single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border on the island of Ireland effectively disappeared, EU single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border on the island of Ireland effectively disappeared,
helping to promote peace, reconciliation, and a dynamic cross-border helping to promote peace, reconciliation, and a dynamic cross-border ~~economy. Preventing a hard border (with customs~~
~~checks and physical infrastructure) post-Brexit was thus a key imperative and a major stumbling block in the UK-EU~~
~~withdrawal negotiations. Concerns about a hard border developing mostly receded in light of the solution found in the UK-~~
~~EU withdrawal agreement, but the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020, caused some difficulties for~~economy. Concerns about a hard border developing mostly receded in light of the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland agreed to by the UK and EU, but implementing these measures—which began on January 1, 2021—disrupted some
trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Combined with a dispute related to EU export controls on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Combined with a dispute related to EU export controls on
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines that could have impacted Northern Ireland, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines that could have impacted Northern Ireland, ~~tensions have arisen over the~~
~~post-Brexit provisions for Northern Ireland. The~~the DUP and other unionists DUP and other unionists ~~in Northern Ireland~~ argue that the post-Brexit argue that the post-Brexit
arrangements for arrangements for ~~the region are untenable. Brexit has added to divisions within Northern Ireland and continues to pose~~
~~challenges for Northern Ireland’s peace process, economy, and, possibly in the longer term, its constitutional status as part of~~
~~the UK. Sinn Fein, for example, has called~~ Northern Ireland are untenable. Such tensions over Brexit have exacerbated a sense among unionists that their British identity is under threat and factored into the unrest in Northern Ireland in early 2021. Brexit also has renewed debate about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status and prompted calls from Sinn Fein and others for a for a border poll, or referendum, on whether Northern Ireland should remain part , or referendum, on whether Northern Ireland should remain part
of the UK. Also see CRS Report of the UK. Also see CRS Report ~~R45944~~R46730, , Brexit: ~~Status and Outlook~~Overview, Trade, and Northern Ireland, coordinated by Derek E. Mix. , coordinated by Derek E. Mix.
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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests Congressional Research Service link to page 6 ~~link to page 5~~ Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

Overview
Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern Between 1969 and 1999, roughly 3,500 people died as a result of political violence in Northern
Ireland, which is a part of the UnitedIreland, which is a part of the United Kingdom (UK). The conflict, often referred to as “the Kingdom (UK). The conflict, often referred to as “the
Troubles,” has its modern origins in the 1921 division of Ireland (see map iTroubles,” has its modern origins in the 1921 division of Ireland (see map in Figure 1).1 At its 1 At its
core, the conflict reflects a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities. core, the conflict reflects a struggle between different national, cultural, and religious identities.
Protestants in Northern Ireland (48% of the population) largely define themselves as British and Protestants in Northern Ireland (48% of the population) largely define themselves as British and
support Northern Ireland’s continued incorporation in the UK ( support Northern Ireland’s continued incorporation in the UK (unionists). Catholics in Northern ). Catholics in Northern
Ireland (45% of the population) consider themselves Irish, and many Catholics desire a united Ireland (45% of the population) consider themselves Irish, and many Catholics desire a united
Ireland (Ireland (nationalists). In the past, more militant unionists (). In the past, more militant unionists (loyalists) and more militant nationalists ) and more militant nationalists
( (republicans) were wil ing to use force and resort to violence to achieve their goals.2 ) were wil ing to use force and resort to violence to achieve their goals.2
The Troubles were sparked in late 1968, when a civil rights movement was launched in Northern The Troubles were sparked in late 1968, when a civil rights movement was launched in Northern
Ireland mostly by Catholics, who had long faced discrimination in areas such as electoral rights, Ireland mostly by Catholics, who had long faced discrimination in areas such as electoral rights,
housing, and employment. This civil rights movement was met with violence by some unionists, housing, and employment. This civil rights movement was met with violence by some unionists,
loyalists, and the police, which in turn prompted armed action by nationalists and republicans. loyalists, and the police, which in turn prompted armed action by nationalists and republicans.
Increasing chaos and escalating violence led the UK government to deploy the British Army on Increasing chaos and escalating violence led the UK government to deploy the British Army on
the streets of Northern Ireland in 1969 and to impose direct rule from London in 1972 (between the streets of Northern Ireland in 1969 and to impose direct rule from London in 1972 (between
~~1920~~1921 and 1972, Northern Ireland had its own regional government and 1972, Northern Ireland had its own regional government ~~at Stormont, outside Belfast~~). ).
For years, the UK and Irish governments sought to facilitate a negotiated political settlement to For years, the UK and Irish governments sought to facilitate a negotiated political settlement to
the conflict in Northern Ireland. Multiparty talks began in June 1996, led by former Senate the conflict in Northern Ireland. Multiparty talks began in June 1996, led by former Senate
Majority Leader George Mitchel , who was serving as U.S. President Bil Clinton’s special Majority Leader George Mitchel , who was serving as U.S. President Bil Clinton’s special
adviser on Ireland. After many ups and downs, the UK and Irish governments and the Northern adviser on Ireland. After many ups and downs, the UK and Irish governments and the Northern
Ireland political parties participating in the peace talks announced an agreement on April 10, Ireland political parties participating in the peace talks announced an agreement on April 10,
1998. This accord became known as the Good Friday Agreement (for the day on which it was 1998. This accord became known as the Good Friday Agreement (for the day on which it was
concluded); it is also known as the Belfast Agreement.3 concluded); it is also known as the Belfast Agreement.3
Despite the significant decrease in the levels of violence since the Good Friday Agreement, Despite the significant decrease in the levels of violence since the Good Friday Agreement,
implementation of the peace accord has been chal enging. Tensions persist among Northern implementation of the peace accord has been chal enging. Tensions persist among Northern
Ireland’s political parties and between the unionist and nationalist communities more broadly. Ireland’s political parties and between the unionist and nationalist communities more broadly.
Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society and continues to grapple with a number of Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society and continues to grapple with a number of
issues in its search for peace and reconciliation. Sectarian differences flare periodical y, and issues in its search for peace and reconciliation. Sectarian differences flare periodical y, and
addressing Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed addressing Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence (often termed dealing with the past) is ) is
particularly controversial. Many analysts assess that peace and security in Northern Ireland is particularly controversial. Many analysts assess that peace and security in Northern Ireland is
fragile. The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) in January 2020—or fragile. The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) in January 2020—or Brexit—has —has
added to divisions within Northern Irelandadded to divisions within Northern Ireland~~. Brexit has posed new chal enges for Northern~~
, as highlighted by the riots and unrest that erupted in parts of Northern Ireland in late March and early April 2021. Brexit continues to pose chal enges
1 In 1921, the mostly Catholic, southern part of Ireland won 1 In 1921, the mostly Catholic, southern part of Ireland won ~~independence~~independen ce from the United Kingdom (UK), resulting in from the United Kingdom (UK), resulting in
the establishment of the Irish Free State in 1922 within the British Commonwealth . T he Irish government formally the establishment of the Irish Free State in 1922 within the British Commonwealth . T he Irish government formally
declared Ireland a republic in 1948 and severed its remaining constitutional links with the UK. T he Republic of Ireland, declared Ireland a republic in 1948 and severed its remaining constitutional links with the UK. T he Republic of Ireland,
with a population of roughly 4.9 million, consists of 26 counties and encompasses about five-sixths of the island of with a population of roughly 4.9 million, consists of 26 counties and encompasses about five-sixths of the island of
Ireland; Northern Ireland, with approximately 1.9 million people, comprises six counties and encompasses the Ireland; Northern Ireland, with approximately 1.9 million people, comprises six counties and encompasses the
remaining one-sixth of the island. remaining one-sixth of the island.
2 Many unionists and loyalists refer to the six counties that today make up Northern Ireland as 2 Many unionists and loyalists refer to the six counties that today make up Northern Ireland as Ulster. T echnically and . T echnically and
historically, Ulster also includes the three northernmost counties of the Republic of Ireland.historically, Ulster also includes the three northernmost counties of the Republic of Ireland.
3 T he text of the Good Friday Agreement (or Belfast Agreement) may be found at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/events/peace/ 3 T he text of the Good Friday Agreement (or Belfast Agreement) may be found at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/events/peace/
docs//agreement.htm. T he unionist/Protestant community tends to use the term Belfast Agreement, viewing the name docs//agreement.htm. T he unionist/Protestant community tends to use the term Belfast Agreement, viewing the name
Good Friday Agreement as biased in favor of the nationalist/Catholic community. For the purposes of this report, the Good Friday Agreement as biased in favor of the nationalist/Catholic community. For the purposes of this report, the
peace accord is referred to as the Good Friday Agreement, because this is the name more widely used and recognized peace accord is referred to as the Good Friday Agreement, because this is the name more widely used and recognized
in the United States. in the United States.
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for Northern Ireland’s peace process and economy and has renewed questions about Northern Ireland’s peace process and economy and has renewed questions about Northern Ireland’s Ireland’s
constitutional status as part of the UK. constitutional status as part of the UK.
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have actively supported the
Northern Ireland peace process and encouraged the full implementation of the Good Friday Northern Ireland peace process and encouraged the full implementation of the Good Friday
Agreement, as wel as subsequent accords and initiatives to further the peace process and promote Agreement, as wel as subsequent accords and initiatives to further the peace process and promote
long-term reconciliation. Some Members have been particularly interested in police reforms and long-term reconciliation. Some Members have been particularly interested in police reforms and
human rights in Northern Ireland. Since 1986, the United States has provided development aid human rights in Northern Ireland. Since 1986, the United States has provided development aid
through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI) as a means to encourage economic development through the International Fund for Ireland (IFI) as a means to encourage economic development
and foster reconciliation. Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in how and foster reconciliation. Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in how
Brexit wil affect Northern Ireland in the years ahead. Brexit wil affect Northern Ireland in the years ahead.4
Figure 1. Map of Northern Ireland (UK) and the Republic of Ireland

Source: Graphic created by CRS using data from Esri (2017). Graphic created by CRS using data from Esri (2017).
The 1998 Peace Agreement
Key Elements
The Good Friday Agreement is a multilayered and interlocking document, consisting of a political The Good Friday Agreement is a multilayered and interlocking document, consisting of a political
settlement reached by Northern Ireland’s political parties and an international treaty between the settlement reached by Northern Ireland’s political parties and an international treaty between the
UK and Irish governments. At the core of the Good Friday Agreement is the UK and Irish governments. At the core of the Good Friday Agreement is the consent principle——
that is, a change in Northern Ireland’s status can come about only with the consent of the majority that is, a change in Northern Ireland’s status can come about only with the consent of the majority
of Northern Ireland’s people, as wel as with the consent of a majority in Ireland. Although the of Northern Ireland’s people, as wel as with the consent of a majority in Ireland. Although the

4 Also see CRS Report R45944, Brexit: Status and Outlook~~, coordinated by Derek E. Mix.~~ agreement acknowledged that a substantial section of Northern Ireland’s population and a majority on the island desired a united Ireland, it recognized that the majority of people in
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~~agreement acknowledged that a substantial section of Northern Ireland’s population and a~~
~~majority on the island desired a united Ireland, it recognized that the majority of people in~~
Northern Ireland wished to remain part of the UK. If the preference of this majority were to Northern Ireland wished to remain part of the UK. If the preference of this majority were to
change, the agreement asserted that the UK and Irish governments would have a binding change, the agreement asserted that the UK and Irish governments would have a binding
obligation to bring about the wish of the people; thus, the agreement included provisions for obligation to bring about the wish of the people; thus, the agreement included provisions for
future polls to be held in Northern Ireland on its constitutional status, should events warrant. future polls to be held in Northern Ireland on its constitutional status, should events warrant.
The Good Friday Agreement set out a framework for devolved government—the transfer of The Good Friday Agreement set out a framework for devolved government—the transfer of
specified powers over local governance from London to Belfast—and cal ed for establishing a specified powers over local governance from London to Belfast—and cal ed for establishing a
Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in which unionist and nationalist parties would share
power (known as power (known as Strand One). The Good Friday Agreement also contained provisions on several ). The Good Friday Agreement also contained provisions on several
issues viewed as central to the peace process: decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary issues viewed as central to the peace process: decommissioning (disarmament) of paramilitary
weapons, policing, human rights, UK security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of weapons, policing, human rights, UK security normalization (demilitarization), and the status of
prisoners. Negotiations on many of these areas had been extremely contentious. Experts assert prisoners. Negotiations on many of these areas had been extremely contentious. Experts assert
that the final agreed text thus reflected some degree of “constructive ambiguity” on such issues. that the final agreed text thus reflected some degree of “constructive ambiguity” on such issues.
In addition, the Good Friday Agreement created new “North-South” and “East-West” institutions In addition, the Good Friday Agreement created new “North-South” and “East-West” institutions
((Strand Two and and Strand Three, respectively). Among the key institutions cal ed for in these two , respectively). Among the key institutions cal ed for in these two
strands, a North-South Ministerial Council was established to al ow leaders in the northern and strands, a North-South Ministerial Council was established to al ow leaders in the northern and
southern parts of the island of Ireland to consult and cooperate on cross-border issues. A British-southern parts of the island of Ireland to consult and cooperate on cross-border issues. A British-
Irish Council also was formed to discuss matters of regional interest; the council comprises Irish Council also was formed to discuss matters of regional interest; the council comprises
representatives of the two governments and the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland, representatives of the two governments and the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland,
Scotland, Wales, the Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. Scotland, Wales, the Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man.
Implementation
Voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland approved the Good Friday Agreement in Voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland approved the Good Friday Agreement in
separate referendums on May 22, 1998. Although considerable progress has been made in separate referendums on May 22, 1998. Although considerable progress has been made in
implementing the agreement, the process has been arduous. For years, decommissioning and implementing the agreement, the process has been arduous. For years, decommissioning and
police reforms were key sticking points that contributed to instability in Northern Ireland’s police reforms were key sticking points that contributed to instability in Northern Ireland’s
devolved government. Sporadic violence from dissident republican and loyalist paramilitary devolved government. Sporadic violence from dissident republican and loyalist paramilitary
groups that refused to accept the peace process and sectarian strife also helped to feed mistrust groups that refused to accept the peace process and sectarian strife also helped to feed mistrust
between the unionist and nationalist communities and their respective political parties. between the unionist and nationalist communities and their respective political parties.
Democratic Power-Sharing Institutions
As noted above, the Good Friday Agreement cal ed for establishing a new Northern Ireland As noted above, the Good Friday Agreement cal ed for establishing a new Northern Ireland
Assembly and Executive. To ensure that neither unionists nor nationalists could dominate the Assembly and Executive. To ensure that neither unionists nor nationalists could dominate the
Assembly, the agreement specified that “key decisions” must receive cross-community support. Assembly, the agreement specified that “key decisions” must receive cross-community support.
The Executive would be composed of a first minister, deputy first minister, and other ministers The Executive would be composed of a first minister, deputy first minister, and other ministers
with departmental responsibilities (e.g., health, education, jobs); positions would be al ocated to with departmental responsibilities (e.g., health, education, jobs); positions would be al ocated to
political parties according to party strength in the Assembly. political parties according to party strength in the Assembly.
The first elections to the new 108-member Northern Ireland Assembly took place on June 25, The first elections to the new 108-member Northern Ireland Assembly took place on June 25,
1998. The devolution of power from London to Belfast, however, did not follow promptly 1998. The devolution of power from London to Belfast, however, did not follow promptly
because of unionist concerns about decommissioning, or the paramilitaries’ surrender of their because of unionist concerns about decommissioning, or the paramilitaries’ surrender of their
weapons. Following 18 months of further negotiations, authority over local affairs was transferred weapons. Following 18 months of further negotiations, authority over local affairs was transferred
to the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in December 1999. Over the next few years, the to the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive in December 1999. Over the next few years, the
issue of decommissioning—especial y by the Irish Republican Army (IRA)—contributed to the issue of decommissioning—especial y by the Irish Republican Army (IRA)—contributed to the
suspension of the devolved government and the reinstatement of direct rule from London several suspension of the devolved government and the reinstatement of direct rule from London several
times between 2000 and 2002. (See times between 2000 and 2002. (See “Decommissioning,” below.) ” below.)
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In May 2007, after a nearly five-year suspension, Northern Ireland’s devolved government was In May 2007, after a nearly five-year suspension, Northern Ireland’s devolved government was
restored following a landmark deal between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)—which restored following a landmark deal between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)—which
Congressional Research Service 3 link to page 11 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests strongly supports Northern Ireland’s continued integration as part of the UK—and Sinn Fein, the strongly supports Northern Ireland’s continued integration as part of the UK—and Sinn Fein, the
staunchly nationalist political party traditional y associated with the IRA.staunchly nationalist political party traditional y associated with the IRA.54 The DUP and Sinn The DUP and Sinn
Fein have been the largest unionist and nationalist parties, respectively, in Northern Ireland since Fein have been the largest unionist and nationalist parties, respectively, in Northern Ireland since
2003. The 2007 DUP-Sinn Fein deal paved the way for greater stability in Northern Ireland’s 2003. The 2007 DUP-Sinn Fein deal paved the way for greater stability in Northern Ireland’s
devolved government over the next decade. Regularly scheduled Assembly elections in 2011 and devolved government over the next decade. Regularly scheduled Assembly elections in 2011 and
2016 produced successive power-sharing governments, also led by the DUP and Sinn Fein. 2016 produced successive power-sharing governments, also led by the DUP and Sinn Fein.
At the same time, tensions persisted within the devolved government and between the unionist At the same time, tensions persisted within the devolved government and between the unionist
and nationalist communities. Various incidents—including protests in 2012 and 2013 over the use and nationalist communities. Various incidents—including protests in 2012 and 2013 over the use
of flags and emblems, a 2014 dispute over welfare reform, and the 2015 arrest of a Sinn Fein of flags and emblems, a 2014 dispute over welfare reform, and the 2015 arrest of a Sinn Fein
leader in connection with the murder of a former IRA member—periodical y threatened the leader in connection with the murder of a former IRA member—periodical y threatened the
devolved government’s stability. Following the collapse of the devolved government and snap devolved government’s stability. Following the collapse of the devolved government and snap
Assembly elections in 2017, heightened tensions due to Brexit and other contentious issues Assembly elections in 2017, heightened tensions due to Brexit and other contentious issues
largely stal ed negotiations on forming a new devolved government for almost three years. This largely stal ed negotiations on forming a new devolved government for almost three years. This
long impasse renewed concerns about political stability and highlighted divisions in Northern long impasse renewed concerns about political stability and highlighted divisions in Northern
Ireland politics and society. (See Ireland politics and society. (See “2017-2020 Crisis in the Devolved Government,” below.) ” below.)
Decommissioning
For years, decommissioning of paramilitary weapons was a prominent chal enge in the For years, decommissioning of paramilitary weapons was a prominent chal enge in the
implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. The text of the agreement states, “those who hold implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. The text of the agreement states, “those who hold
office should use only democratic, non-violent means, and those who do not should be excluded office should use only democratic, non-violent means, and those who do not should be excluded
or removed from office.” Unionists were adamant that the IRA must fully decommission its or removed from office.” Unionists were adamant that the IRA must fully decommission its
weapons. The IRA had been observing a cease-fire since 1997, but it viewed decommissioning as weapons. The IRA had been observing a cease-fire since 1997, but it viewed decommissioning as
tantamount to surrender and had long resisted such cal s. tantamount to surrender and had long resisted such cal s.
Progress toward full IRA decommissioning was slow and incremental. A key milestone came in Progress toward full IRA decommissioning was slow and incremental. A key milestone came in
July 2005, when the IRA declared an end to its armed campaign and instructed al members to July 2005, when the IRA declared an end to its armed campaign and instructed al members to
pursue objectives through “exclusively peaceful means.”pursue objectives through “exclusively peaceful means.”65 In September 2005, Northern Ireland’s In September 2005, Northern Ireland’s
Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) announced that the IRA had Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) announced that the IRA had
put al of its arms “beyond use,” asserting that the IRA weaponry dismantled or made inoperable put al of its arms “beyond use,” asserting that the IRA weaponry dismantled or made inoperable
matched estimates provided by the security forces.matched estimates provided by the security forces.76 The IICD also confirmed decommissioning The IICD also confirmed decommissioning
by other republican groups and loyalist organizations. The IICD concluded its work in 2011. by other republican groups and loyalist organizations. The IICD concluded its work in 2011.
Policing
Although recognized as a central element in achieving a comprehensive peace in Northern Although recognized as a central element in achieving a comprehensive peace in Northern
Ireland, new policing structures and arrangements were a frequent point of contention between Ireland, new policing structures and arrangements were a frequent point of contention between
unionists and nationalists. In 2001, a new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was unionists and nationalists. In 2001, a new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) was
established to replace the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), Northern Ireland’s former, 92% established to replace the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), Northern Ireland’s former, 92%
Protestant police force. Catholics viewed the RUC as an enforcer of Protestant domination, and Protestant police force. Catholics viewed the RUC as an enforcer of Protestant domination, and
human rights organizations accused the RUC of brutality and collusion with loyalist paramilitary human rights organizations accused the RUC of brutality and collusion with loyalist paramilitary
groups. Defenders of the RUC pointed to its tradition of loyalty and discipline and its record in groups. Defenders of the RUC pointed to its tradition of loyalty and discipline and its record in
fighting terrorism. In accordance with policing recommendations made by an independent fighting terrorism. In accordance with policing recommendations made by an independent

5commission (known as the Patten Commission), increasing the proportion of Catholic officers 4 Frank Millar, “Paisley Reaches Out and Grasps Cherished Prize,” Frank Millar, “Paisley Reaches Out and Grasps Cherished Prize,” Irish Times, March 27, 2007; Mark Davenport, “NI , March 27, 2007; Mark Davenport, “NI
Politics Moves Away from Edge,” BBC News, May 8, 2007. Politics Moves Away from Edge,” BBC News, May 8, 2007.
65 “IRA Statement in Full,” BBC News, July 25, 2005. “IRA Statement in Full,” BBC News, July 25, 2005.
76 Mark Davenport, “IRA Arms: What Next for NI Politics?,” BBC News, September 26, 2005. Mark Davenport, “IRA Arms: What Next for NI Politics?,” BBC News, September 26, 2005.
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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

~~commission (known as the Patten Commission), increasing the proportion of Catholic officers~~
(from 8% to 30% in 10 years) was a key goal for the new PSNI. To help fulfil this goal, the PSNI (from 8% to 30% in 10 years) was a key goal for the new PSNI. To help fulfil this goal, the PSNI
introduced a 50-50 Catholic/Protestant recruitment process. introduced a 50-50 Catholic/Protestant recruitment process.87
For several years, Sinn Fein refused to participate in the new Policing Board, a democratic For several years, Sinn Fein refused to participate in the new Policing Board, a democratic
oversight body. Many viewed Sinn Fein’s stance as discouraging Catholics from joining the PSNI oversight body. Many viewed Sinn Fein’s stance as discouraging Catholics from joining the PSNI
and preventing the nationalist community from fully accepting the new police force. In 2007, and preventing the nationalist community from fully accepting the new police force. In 2007,
however, as part of the process to restore the devolved government, Sinn Fein members voted to however, as part of the process to restore the devolved government, Sinn Fein members voted to
support the police and join the Policing Board. Experts viewed Sinn Fein’s decision as historic, support the police and join the Policing Board. Experts viewed Sinn Fein’s decision as historic,
given the IRA’s traditional view of the police as a legitimate target. In 2010, the DUP and Sinn given the IRA’s traditional view of the police as a legitimate target. In 2010, the DUP and Sinn
Fein reached an accord (the Hil sborough Agreement) to devolve policing and justice powers Fein reached an accord (the Hil sborough Agreement) to devolve policing and justice powers
from London to Belfast (on which the parties had been unable to agree at the time of the Good from London to Belfast (on which the parties had been unable to agree at the time of the Good
Friday Agreement’s signing). Friday Agreement’s signing).
In 2011, the 50-50 recruitment process for Catholic and Protestant PSNI officers concluded. In 2011, the 50-50 recruitment process for Catholic and Protestant PSNI officers concluded.
Officials asserted that the 50-50 process fulfil ed the goals set out by the Patten Commission Officials asserted that the 50-50 process fulfil ed the goals set out by the Patten Commission
(including increasing the number of Catholic officers to 30%).(including increasing the number of Catholic officers to 30%).98 In recent years, concerns In recent years, concerns
resurfaced that not enough Catholics were seeking to join the PSNI; partly because of lingering resurfaced that not enough Catholics were seeking to join the PSNI; partly because of lingering
suspicions about the police within the Catholic/nationalist community but also because of fears suspicions about the police within the Catholic/nationalist community but also because of fears
that Catholic police recruits were key targets of dissident republicans. In 2017, the PSNI that Catholic police recruits were key targets of dissident republicans. In 2017, the PSNI
introduced a number of procedural changes to help attract more Catholics (and more women). introduced a number of procedural changes to help attract more Catholics (and more women).109
Security Normalization
The Good Friday Agreement cal ed for “as early a return as possible to normal security The Good Friday Agreement cal ed for “as early a return as possible to normal security
arrangements in Northern Ireland,” including the removal of security instal ations. In February arrangements in Northern Ireland,” including the removal of security instal ations. In February
2007, the last of more than 100 armored watchtowers in Northern Ireland was dismantled. In July 2007, the last of more than 100 armored watchtowers in Northern Ireland was dismantled. In July
2007, the British Army ended its 38-year-long military operation in Northern Ireland. Although a 2007, the British Army ended its 38-year-long military operation in Northern Ireland. Although a
regular garrison of 5,000 British troops remains based in Northern Ireland, British forces no regular garrison of 5,000 British troops remains based in Northern Ireland, British forces no
longer have a role in policing and may be deployed worldwide. longer have a role in policing and may be deployed worldwide.
Rights, Safeguards, and Equality of Opportunity
In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions related to human rights and equality, In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions related to human rights and equality,
the UK government incorporated the European Convention on Human Rights into Northern the UK government incorporated the European Convention on Human Rights into Northern
Ireland law and established a new Human Rights Commission and a new Equality Commission Ireland law and established a new Human Rights Commission and a new Equality Commission
for Northern Ireland. Some nationalists, however, continue to press for more progress in the area for Northern Ireland. Some nationalists, however, continue to press for more progress in the area
of human rights and equality. They argue that Northern Ireland needs its own Bil of Rights of human rights and equality. They argue that Northern Ireland needs its own Bil of Rights
(consideration of which is provided for in the Good Friday Agreement) and a stand-alone Irish (consideration of which is provided for in the Good Friday Agreement) and a stand-alone Irish
Language Act to give the Irish language the same official status as English in Northern Ireland. Language Act to give the Irish language the same official status as English in Northern Ireland.
The Good Friday Agreement cal s for tolerance of linguistic diversity in Northern Ireland and The Good Friday Agreement cal s for tolerance of linguistic diversity in Northern Ireland and
support for the Irish language. The subsequent St. Andrews Agreement of 2006 provided for an support for the Irish language. The subsequent St. Andrews Agreement of 2006 provided for an
Irish Language Act, but this issue remains controversial. Irish Language Act, but this issue remains controversial.

87 See See A New Beginning: Policing in Northern Ireland, Report of the Independent Commission on Policing for Northern , Report of the Independent Commission on Policing for Northern
Ireland, September 1999, at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/police/patten/patten99.pdf. Ireland, September 1999, at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/police/patten/patten99.pdf.
98 “Police 50-50 Recruiting System Is to End,” BBC News, March 28, 2011. “Police 50-50 Recruiting System Is to End,” BBC News, March 28, 2011.
109 Deborah McAleese, “T op Officer’s ‘Deep Concern’ at Lack of Catholics Signing Up for Police Career in Deborah McAleese, “T op Officer’s ‘Deep Concern’ at Lack of Catholics Signing Up for Police Career in ~~Norther n~~Northern
Ireland,” Ireland,” Belfast Telegraph, October 23, 2015; Vincent Kearney, “PSNI Aims to Recruit 300 New Officers,” BBC , October 23, 2015; Vincent Kearney, “PSNI Aims to Recruit 300 New Officers,” BBC
News, October 23, 2017. News, October 23, 2017.
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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

Initiatives to Further the Peace Process
Many analysts view implementation of the most important aspects of the Good Friday Agreement Many analysts view implementation of the most important aspects of the Good Friday Agreement
as complete. Since 2013, however, the Northern Ireland political parties and the UK and Irish as complete. Since 2013, however, the Northern Ireland political parties and the UK and Irish
governments have made several attempts to reduce sectarian tensions and promote reconciliation. governments have made several attempts to reduce sectarian tensions and promote reconciliation.
Major endeavors include the following: Major endeavors include the following:
  The 2013 Haass Initiative. In 2013, the Northern Ireland Executive appointed In 2013, the Northern Ireland Executive appointed
former U.S. diplomat and special envoy for Northern Ireland Richard Haass as former U.S. diplomat and special envoy for Northern Ireland Richard Haass as
the independent chair of interparty talks aimed at tackling some of the most the independent chair of interparty talks aimed at tackling some of the most
divisive issues in Northern Ireland society.divisive issues in Northern Ireland society.1110 In particular, Haass was tasked with In particular, Haass was tasked with
making recommendations on dealing with the past and the sectarian issues of making recommendations on dealing with the past and the sectarian issues of
parading, protests, and the use of flags and emblems. In December 2013, Haass parading, protests, and the use of flags and emblems. In December 2013, Haass
released a draft proposal outlining the way forward in these areas, but he was released a draft proposal outlining the way forward in these areas, but he was
unable to broker a final agreement among the Northern Ireland political parties.unable to broker a final agreement among the Northern Ireland political parties.1211
  The 2014 Stormont House Agreement. In 2014, financial pressures and In 2014, financial pressures and
budgetary disputes related to UK-wide welfare reforms and austerity measures budgetary disputes related to UK-wide welfare reforms and austerity measures
tested Northern Ireland’s devolved government. The UK and Irish governments tested Northern Ireland’s devolved government. The UK and Irish governments
convened interparty talks to address government finances and governing convened interparty talks to address government finances and governing
structures, as wel as the issues previously tackled by the Haass initiative. In the structures, as wel as the issues previously tackled by the Haass initiative. In the
resulting December 2014 Stormont House Agreement, the Northern Ireland resulting December 2014 Stormont House Agreement, the Northern Ireland
political parties agreed to support welfare reform (with certain mitigating political parties agreed to support welfare reform (with certain mitigating
measures), balance the budget, address Northern Ireland’s heavy reliance on the measures), balance the budget, address Northern Ireland’s heavy reliance on the
public sector, and reduce the size of the Assembly and the number of Executive public sector, and reduce the size of the Assembly and the number of Executive
departments to improve efficiency and cut costs. The agreement also included departments to improve efficiency and cut costs. The agreement also included
measures on parading, flags, and dealing with the past. Continued disagreements measures on parading, flags, and dealing with the past. Continued disagreements
over welfare reform between the DUP and Sinn Fein, however, stal ed over welfare reform between the DUP and Sinn Fein, however, stal ed
implementation of al aspects of the Stormont House Agreement.implementation of al aspects of the Stormont House Agreement.1312
  The 2015 Fresh Start Agreement. In November 2015, the UK and Irish In November 2015, the UK and Irish
governments, the DUP, and Sinn Fein reached a new Fresh Start Agreement. Like governments, the DUP, and Sinn Fein reached a new Fresh Start Agreement. Like
the Stormont House Agreement, the accord focused on implementing welfare the Stormont House Agreement, the accord focused on implementing welfare
reform and improving the stability and sustainability of Northern Ireland’s reform and improving the stability and sustainability of Northern Ireland’s
budget and governing institutions. It confirmed a reduction in the size of the budget and governing institutions. It confirmed a reduction in the size of the
Assembly from 108 to 90 members (effective from the first Assembly election Assembly from 108 to 90 members (effective from the first Assembly election
after the May 2016 election), decreased the number of Executive departments, after the May 2016 election), decreased the number of Executive departments,
and made provision for an official opposition in the Assembly. The Fresh Start and made provision for an official opposition in the Assembly. The Fresh Start
Agreement also included provisions on parading and the use of flags, but the Agreement also included provisions on parading and the use of flags, but the
parties were unable to reach final agreement on establishing new institutions to parties were unable to reach final agreement on establishing new institutions to
deal with the past. In addition, the Fresh Start Agreement addressed ongoing deal with the past. In addition, the Fresh Start Agreement addressed ongoing
concerns about paramilitary activity, sparked by the arrest of a senior Sinn Fein concerns about paramilitary activity, sparked by the arrest of a senior Sinn Fein
official in connection to the August 2015 murder of an ex-IRA member.official in connection to the August 2015 murder of an ex-IRA member.1413

1110 Richard Haass served as President George W. Bush’s special envoy for Northern Ireland from 2001 to 2003; he is Richard Haass served as President George W. Bush’s special envoy for Northern Ireland from 2001 to 2003; he is
currently president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. currently president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.
1211 For the full text of the December 31, 2013, draft agreement presented by Haass and his negotiating team, see For the full text of the December 31, 2013, draft agreement presented by Haass and his negotiating team, see
http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/haass.pdf. http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/haass.pdf.
1312 T he Stormont House Agreement is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-stormont-house- T he Stormont House Agreement is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-stormont-house-
agreement . agreement .
1413 T he Fresh Start Agreement is available at Government of the UK, “News Story: A Fresh Start for Northern Ireland,” T he Fresh Start Agreement is available at Government of the UK, “News Story: A Fresh Start for Northern Ireland,”
November 17, 2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a-fresh-start -for-northern-ireland. November 17, 2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a-fresh-start -for-northern-ireland.
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Recent Issues and Ongoing Challenges
Despite a much-improved security situation since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, concerns Despite a much-improved security situation since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, concerns
linger about the stability of the devolved government and the fragility of community relations. As linger about the stability of the devolved government and the fragility of community relations. As
noted previously, the devolved government noted previously, the devolved government ~~led by the DUP and Sinn Fein~~ collapsed in January collapsed in January
2017 amid heightened tensions related to Brexit and other issues. It took nearly three years 2017 amid heightened tensions related to Brexit and other issues. It took nearly three years
following the March 2017 snap Assembly elections to reestablish the devolved government in following the March 2017 snap Assembly elections to reestablish the devolved government in
January 2020. Since then, the January 2020. Since then, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic ~~has~~and implementation of the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland have further tested further tested
~~the devolved government and the political parties’ ability to work together to manage the public~~
~~health response to the virus and its economic repercussions. Northern Ireland’s~~the devolved government, led by First Minister Arlene Foster of the DUP and Deputy First Minister Michel e O’Neil of Sinn Fein. In late April 2021, DUP dissatisfaction with First Minister Foster’s leadership over Brexit and other controversies prompted her to announce that she would step down as DUP party leader at the end of May and as first minister at the end of June. On May 14, 2021, the DUP chose Northern Ireland Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots as its new leader. The DUP is expected to nominate a replacement as first minister, who must then be approved by the Northern Ireland Assembly. The next Assembly ~~next Assembly~~
elections are due in May 2022elections are due in May 2022., but some analysts suggest that the DUP leadership changes could increase the likelihood of an early election.14
The search for peace and reconciliation The search for peace and reconciliation in Northern Ireland remains chal enging. Difficult issues remains chal enging. Difficult issues include bridging include bridging
sectarian divisions and managing key sticking points (especial y parading, protests, and the use of sectarian divisions and managing key sticking points (especial y parading, protests, and the use of
flags and emblems); dealing with the past; addressing remaining paramilitary concerns and flags and emblems); dealing with the past; addressing remaining paramilitary concerns and
curbing dissident activity; and furthering economic developmentcurbing dissident activity; and furthering economic development and equality. The 2013 Haass initiative,. The 2013 Haass initiative, the the
2014 Stormont House Agreement, and the 2015 Fresh Start Agreement attempted to tackle some 2014 Stormont House Agreement, and the 2015 Fresh Start Agreement attempted to tackle some
aspects of these long-standing chal enges. Some aspects of these long-standing chal enges. Some measures agreed in these successive accords measures agreed in these successive accords
were delayed amid the absence of a devolved were delayed amid the absence of a devolved government between 2017 and 2020. government between 2017 and 2020.
2017-2020 Crisis in the Devolved Government
March 2017 Snap Assembly Elections
The immediate impetus for the devolved government’s January 2017 collapse was a The immediate impetus for the devolved government’s January 2017 collapse was a ~~renewable~~
~~energy scandal involving DUP leader and Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster~~scandal over flaws in a renewable energy program initial y overseen by First Minister Foster in her previous role as enterprise minister in 2012. Then-. Then-
Deputy First Minister Martin McGuiness of Sinn Fein cal ed for Foster to stand aside as Deputy First Minister Martin McGuiness of Sinn Fein cal ed for Foster to stand aside as ~~First~~
~~Minister~~first minister temporarily while temporarily while ~~an investigation was conducted into~~ the energy schemethe energy scheme was investigated; Foster ; Foster
refused, and McGuinness resigned refused, and McGuinness resigned ~~his position as Deputy First Minister~~as deputy first minister in protest. in protest. McGuinness’s McGuinness’s
resignation essential y forced new elections to be cal ed for March 2, 2017.15 resignation essential y forced new elections to be cal ed for March 2, 2017.15
Tensions Tensions ~~between Sinn Fein and the DUP~~ on several issues other than the energy scandal on several issues other than the energy scandal
contributed to Sinn Fein’s decision to force snap Assembly elections. The elections were cal ed in contributed to Sinn Fein’s decision to force snap Assembly elections. The elections were cal ed in
the wake of the June 2016 UK the wake of the June 2016 UK referendum on EU membership and amid deep unease over referendum on EU membership and amid deep unease over
Brexit’s implications for Northern Ireland. Other points of contention included the introduction of Brexit’s implications for Northern Ireland. Other points of contention included the introduction of
a potential Irish Language Act and the legalization of same-sex marriage; Sinn Fein supported a potential Irish Language Act and the legalization of same-sex marriage; Sinn Fein supported
~~both measures, whereas the DUP opposed them.16 Arlene~~ both measures, whereas the DUP 14 Enda McClafferty, “DUP Revolt Raises Political Stakes,” BBC News, April 27, 2021; “Arlene Foster Announces Resignation as DUP Leader and NI First Minister,” BBC News, April 28, 2021. 15 Under the rules governing Northern Ireland’s power-sharing arrangements, if either the first minister or the deputy first minister resigns (without a replacement being nominated), the government cannot continue and new elections must be held. Congressional Research Service 7 link to page 12 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests opposed them.16 Foster led the DUP’s election ~~Foster led the DUP’s election~~
campaign, but Michel e O’Neilcampaign, but Michel e O’Neil succeeded McGuinness as Sinn Fein’s leader in Northern Ireland succeeded McGuinness as Sinn Fein’s leader in Northern Ireland
and led Sinn Fein’s campaign and led Sinn Fein’s campaign (McGuinness was (McGuinness was ~~suffering from il health~~ il and passed away a few and passed away a few
weeks after the election). weeks after the election).
As seen i As seen in Table 1, the number of Assembly seats contested in 2017 was 90 rather than 108 the number of Assembly seats contested in 2017 was 90 rather than 108
because of a previously agreed reduction in the size of the Assembly. The DUP retained the because of a previously agreed reduction in the size of the Assembly. The DUP retained the
largest number of seats in the 2017 elections, but Sinn Fein was widely regarded as the biggest largest number of seats in the 2017 elections, but Sinn Fein was widely regarded as the biggest

~~15 Under the rules governing Northern Ireland’s power-sharing arrangements, if either the First Minister or the Deputy~~
~~First Minister resigns (without a replacement being nominated), the government cannot continue an d new elections~~
~~must be held.~~
~~16 Sinead O’Shea, “Northern Ireland, Forced by Sinn Fein, Sets Early Election in Shadow of Brexit,” New York Times,~~
~~January 16, 2017; “NI Election: Everything You Need to Know About the 2017 Vote,” BBC News, March 4, 2017.~~
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~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

winner, given its success in reducing the previous gap between the two parties from 10 seats to 1. winner, given its success in reducing the previous gap between the two parties from 10 seats to 1.
A high voter turnout of almost 65%—fueled by anger over the energy scandal and a perceived A high voter turnout of almost 65%—fueled by anger over the energy scandal and a perceived
lack of concern from London about Brexit’s impact on Northern Ireland—appears to have lack of concern from London about Brexit’s impact on Northern Ireland—appears to have
favored Sinn Fein and the cross-community Al iance Party. For the first time in the Assembly, favored Sinn Fein and the cross-community Al iance Party. For the first time in the Assembly,
unionist parties do not have an overal majority (a largely symbolic status because of the power-unionist parties do not have an overal majority (a largely symbolic status because of the power-
sharing rules but highly emblematic for the unionist community).17 sharing rules but highly emblematic for the unionist community).17
Table 1. Northern Ireland: Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs)
(2016 and 2017 election results) (2016 and 2017 election results)
Political Party
2016
2017
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP; hard-line unionist, conservative) Democratic Unionist Party (DUP; hard-line unionist, conservative)
38 38
28 28
Sinn Fein (SF; hard-line nationalist, left-wing) Sinn Fein (SF; hard-line nationalist, left-wing)
28 28
27 27
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP; moderate nationalist, center-left) Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP; moderate nationalist, center-left)
12 12
12 12
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP; moderate unionist, center-right) Ulster Unionist Party (UUP; moderate unionist, center-right)
16 16
10 10
Al iance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI; nonsectarian, centrist/liberal) Al iance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI; nonsectarian, centrist/liberal)
8 8
8 8
Green Party (nonsectarian; left-wing) Green Party (nonsectarian; left-wing)
2 2
2 2
People Before Profit Al iance (PBPA; nonsectarian, left-wing) People Before Profit Al iance (PBPA; nonsectarian, left-wing)
2 2
1 1
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV; hard-line unionist, right-wing) Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV; hard-line unionist, right-wing)
1 1
1 1
Independent (unionist) Independent (unionist)
1 1
1 1
Total
108
90
Sources: BBC, “NI Election 2016: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2016/northern_ireland/results, and BBC, “NI Election 2016: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2016/northern_ireland/results, and
BBC, “NI Election 2017: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/ni2017/results. BBC, “NI Election 2017: Results,” at http://www.bbc.com/news/election/ni2017/results.
Reestablishing the Devolved Government
Following the March 2017 snap Assembly elections, negotiations between the DUP, Sinn Fein, Following the March 2017 snap Assembly elections, negotiations between the DUP, Sinn Fein,
and the other main political parties (see and the other main political parties (see text box) on forming a new devolved government ) on forming a new devolved government
repeatedly stal ed, primarily over a potential Irish Language Act. Divisions over Brexit repeatedly stal ed, primarily over a potential Irish Language Act. Divisions over Brexit
exacerbated tensions. The DUP was the only major Northern Ireland political party to back exacerbated tensions. The DUP was the only major Northern Ireland political party to back
Brexit, which Sinn Fein and the other main Northern Ireland parties strongly opposed. Some Brexit, which Sinn Fein and the other main Northern Ireland parties strongly opposed. Some
analysts suggest the DUP’s support for the Conservative Party government in the UK Parliament analysts suggest the DUP’s support for the Conservative Party government in the UK Parliament
following the UK’s June 2017 snap general election further heightened distrust between Sinn following the UK’s June 2017 snap general election further heightened distrust between Sinn
Fein and the DUP and made reaching a new power-sharing agreement more difficult.18 Fein and the DUP and made reaching a new power-sharing agreement more difficult.18
~~In April 2019, journalist Lyra McKee was shot and kil ed while covering riots in Londonderry~~
~~(also known as Derry). The New IRA, a dissident republican group opposed to the peace process,~~
~~claimed responsibility (but also apologized, asserting that it had been aiming to shoot a police~~
~~officer but hit McKee by accident). McKee’s death sparked a significant public outcry and~~
~~prompted the UK and Irish governments to intensify efforts to revive talks on forming a new~~
~~devolved government. Negotiations remained largely deadlocked, however, throughout the~~
~~summer and fal of 2019 amid ongoing uncertainty over Brexit.~~

16 Sinead O’Shea, “Northern Ireland, Forced by Sinn Fein, Sets Early Election in Shadow of Brexit,” New York Times, January 16, 2017; “NI Election: Everything You Need to Know About the 2017 Vote,” BBC News, March 4, 2017. 17 Harry McGee, “DUP Smarting from Close Encounter with Sinn Fein Crocodile,”17 Harry McGee, “DUP Smarting from Close Encounter with Sinn Fein Crocodile,” Irish Times, March 3, 2017; Enda , March 3, 2017; Enda
McClafferty, “Assembly Election a Brutal Result for Unionism,” BBC News, March 4, 2017.McClafferty, “Assembly Election a Brutal Result for Unionism,” BBC News, March 4, 2017.
18 Peter Hain, “Deal with DUP Means London Is No Longer Honest Broker on North,” 18 Peter Hain, “Deal with DUP Means London Is No Longer Honest Broker on North,” Irish Times, June 13, 2017; , June 13, 2017;
~~William Booth and Amanda Ferguson, “A Battle over Language Is at the Heart of Northern Ireland Crisis,”~~
Washington Post, February 9, 2018.
~~Congressional Research Service~~
8

~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

~~On December 16, 2019, the UK and Irish governments launched a new round of talks with the~~
~~main political parties aimed at reestablishing the devolved government. These negotiations~~
~~followed the UK’s December 12, 2019, general election, in which Prime Minister Boris~~
~~Johnson’s Conservative Party won a convincing parliamentary majority, thereby negating the~~
~~DUP’s influence in the UK Parliament and improving the prospects for restoring Northern~~
~~Ireland’s devolved government.19~~ Congressional Research Service 8 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests
Main Political Parties in Northern Ireland
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The DUP has been the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland since The DUP has been the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland since
2003. It enjoys considerable Protestant support and strongly favors union with the United Kingdom (UK). The 2003. It enjoys considerable Protestant support and strongly favors union with the United Kingdom (UK). The
party initial y opposed the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, viewing virtual y any compromise with Irish nationalists party initial y opposed the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, viewing virtual y any compromise with Irish nationalists
as a net loss for unionists. Social y conservative, the DUP opposes abortion and same-sex marriage. The DUP has as a net loss for unionists. Social y conservative, the DUP opposes abortion and same-sex marriage. The DUP has
been led by Arlene Foster since 2015been led by Arlene Foster since 2015, but is resigning as DUP leader, effective at the end of May 2021. Foster is to be succeeded as DUP leader by Edwin Poots. .
Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein has been the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland since 2003. It advocates for a Sinn Fein has been the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland since 2003. It advocates for a
united Ireland. Sinn Fein is an al -island party and has a political presence in both Northern Ireland and Ireland united Ireland. Sinn Fein is an al -island party and has a political presence in both Northern Ireland and Ireland
(with members in both the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Irish Parliament). Historical y, Sinn Fein was the (with members in both the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Irish Parliament). Historical y, Sinn Fein was the
political party associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA). A left-wing party, Sinn Fein traditional y has political party associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA). A left-wing party, Sinn Fein traditional y has
received considerable support from working-class Catholics. In 2018, Mary Lou McDonald became leader of Sinn received considerable support from working-class Catholics. In 2018, Mary Lou McDonald became leader of Sinn
Fein, replacing former long-serving leader Gerry Adams. Since 2017, Michel e O’Neil has led Sinn Fein in the Fein, replacing former long-serving leader Gerry Adams. Since 2017, Michel e O’Neil has led Sinn Fein in the
Northern Ireland Assembly and is considered the party’s “northern leader”; she is also the party’s deputy leader. Northern Ireland Assembly and is considered the party’s “northern leader”; she is also the party’s deputy leader.
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). The UUP is a smal er, center-right Protestant party that supports union with the The UUP is a smal er, center-right Protestant party that supports union with the
UK. It was the lead unionist party involved in the negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. UK. It was the lead unionist party involved in the negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. ~~The UUP has been~~
~~led by Steve Aiken since late 2019~~In May 2021, the UUP elected Doug Beattie as its leader. .
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). The SDLP is a smal er, center-left Catholic party that The SDLP is a smal er, center-left Catholic party that
supports a united Ireland achieved through peaceful means. It was the lead nationalist party involved in the supports a united Ireland achieved through peaceful means. It was the lead nationalist party involved in the
negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. The SDLP has been led by Colum Eastwood since 2015. negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement. The SDLP has been led by Colum Eastwood since 2015.
Alliance Party. The Al iance Party is a nonsectarian, cross-community party. It is centrist and liberal in political The Al iance Party is a nonsectarian, cross-community party. It is centrist and liberal in political
orientation. The Al iance Party has been led by Naomi Long since 2016. orientation. The Al iance Party has been led by Naomi Long since 2016.
~~On January 10, 2020, the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the other parties agreed to a deal put forward by~~
~~the UK and Irish governments to reestablish the devolved government. The new Assembly~~
~~convened the following day and elected a new Executive. The DUP’s Arlene Foster and Sinn~~
~~Fein’s Michel e O’Neil were elected as First Minister and Deputy First Minister, respectively.~~
In April 2019, journalist Lyra McKee was shot and kil ed while covering riots in Londonderry (also known as Derry). The New IRA, a dissident republican group opposed to the peace process, claimed responsibility (but also apologized, asserting that it had been aiming to shoot a police officer but hit McKee by accident). McKee’s death sparked a significant public outcry and prompted the UK and Irish governments to intensify efforts to revive talks on forming a new devolved government. Negotiations remained largely deadlocked, however, throughout the summer and fal of 2019 amid ongoing uncertainty over Brexit. On December 16, 2019, the UK and Irish governments launched a new round of talks with the main political parties aimed at reestablishing the devolved government. These negotiations followed the UK’s December 12, 2019, general election, in which Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party won a convincing parliamentary majority, thereby negating the DUP’s influence in the UK Parliament and improving the prospects for restoring Northern Ireland’s devolved government.19 On January 10, 2020, the DUP, Sinn Fein, and the other parties agreed to a deal put forward by the UK and Irish governments to reestablish the devolved government. The new power-sharing ~~The new power-sharing~~ deal, known as New Decade, New Approach, is wide-ranging and deal, known as New Decade, New Approach, is wide-ranging and
addresses a number of key issues, including health and education concerns and measures to addresses a number of key issues, including health and education concerns and measures to
improve the sustainabilityimprove the sustainability ~~and transparency~~ of Northern Ireland’s political institutions. The of Northern Ireland’s political institutions. The
~~power-sharing~~ deal does not include a stand-alone Irish Language Act, as initial y demanded by deal does not include a stand-alone Irish Language Act, as initial y demanded by
Sinn Fein, but essential y seeks to strike a compromise that promotes the use of the Irish (Gaelic) Sinn Fein, but essential y seeks to strike a compromise that promotes the use of the Irish (Gaelic)
language while protecting the Ulster-Scots language (a regional language similarlanguage while protecting the Ulster-Scots language (a regional language similar to English) that to English) that
many unionists consider important to their heritage. many unionists consider important to their heritage. The deal provides for the official recognition The deal provides for the official recognition
~~in Northern Ireland of both the Irish and the Ulster-Scots languages, al ows for their wider use in~~
~~government settings, and establishes two new “language commissioners”—one for Irish and one~~
~~for Ulster-Scots—to enhance, protect, and develop each language and associated cultural~~
~~traditions. Both the UK and Irish governments promised additional financial support for Northern~~
~~Ireland as part of the deal to restore the devolved government.20~~

~~19 Padraic Halpin, “UK Election Clears Way for Northern Ireland Devolution, Dublin Says,” Reuters, December 13,~~
~~2019; Annabelle Dickson, “Northern Ireland’s Post -election Refocus,” Politico, December 16, 2019.~~
~~20 T he text of the New Decade, New Approach deal is available at Government of the UK, “Deal to See Restored~~
~~Government in Northern Ireland T omorrow,” January 9, 2020, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deal-to-see-~~
~~restored-government -in-northern-ireland-tomorrow. Also see Henry McDonald and Lisa O’Carroll, “ Northern Ireland~~
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~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~
in Northern Ireland of both the Irish and the Ulster- William Booth and Amanda Ferguson, “A Battle over Language Is at the Heart of Norther n Ireland Crisis,” Washington Post, February 9, 2018. 19 Padraic Halpin, “UK Election Clears Way for Northern Ireland Devolution, Dublin Says,” Reuters, December 13, 2019; Annabelle Dickson, “Northern Ireland’s Post -election Refocus,” Politico, December 16, 2019. Congressional Research Service 9 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests Scots languages, al ows for their wider use in government settings, and establishes two new “language commissioners”—one for Irish and one for Ulster-Scots—to enhance, protect, and develop each language and associated cultural traditions. Both the UK and Irish governments promised additional financial support for Northern Ireland as part of the deal.20
Sectarian Divisions
Observers suggest that Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society, with Protestant and Observers suggest that Northern Ireland remains a largely divided society, with Protestant and
Catholic communities existing largely in paral el. Catholic communities existing largely in paral el. Peace walls that separate Protestant and
~~Catholic neighborhoods are perhaps the most tangible sign of such divisions.~~Schools and housing developments in Northern Ireland remain mostly single-identity communities and in some areas, peace walls separate Protestant and Catholic neighborhoods.21 Estimates of the Estimates of the
number of peace wal s vary depending on the definition. Northern Ireland’s Department of Justice number of peace wal s vary depending on the definition. Northern Ireland’s Department of Justice
and Housing Executive have responsibility for the majority of peace wal s, but when other types and Housing Executive have responsibility for the majority of peace wal s, but when other types
~~of “interfaces”~~of structures are included—such as fences, gates, and closed roads—the number of physical are included—such as fences, gates, and closed roads—the number of physical
barriers separating Protestant and Catholic communities is estimated at over 100. Northern barriers separating Protestant and Catholic communities is estimated at over 100. Northern
Ireland’s Executive has been working to Ireland’s Executive has been working to remove the peace wal s since 2013, but a 2015 survey of remove the peace wal s since 2013, but a 2015 survey of
public attitudes found that 30% of those interviewed public attitudes found that 30% of those interviewed ~~want~~wanted the wal s to remain in place for reasons the wal s to remain in place for reasons
of safety and securityof safety and security~~; it~~. The same 2015 survey also found that more than 4 in 10 people also found that more than 4 in 10 people ~~have~~had never interacted with never interacted with
anyone from the community living on the other side of the nearest peace wal . anyone from the community living on the other side of the nearest peace wal . ~~Furthermore,~~
~~experts note that schools and housing developments in Northern Ireland remain mostly single-~~
~~identity communities.~~ A 2019 survey, however, suggests a gradual attitudinal change in support of A 2019 survey, however, suggests a gradual attitudinal change in support of
removing the peace wal s and other barriers, especial y removing the peace wal s and other barriers, especial y among younger people.among younger people.2122
Some analysts contend that sectarian divisions are particularly evident during the annual summer Some analysts contend that sectarian divisions are particularly evident during the annual summer
marching season, when many unionist cultural and religious organizations hold parades , when many unionist cultural and religious organizations hold parades
commemorating Protestant history. Although the vast majority of these annual parades are not commemorating Protestant history. Although the vast majority of these annual parades are not
contentious, some are held through or close to areas populated mainly by Catholics (some of contentious, some are held through or close to areas populated mainly by Catholics (some of
whom perceive such unionist parades as triumphalist and intimidating). During the Troubles, the whom perceive such unionist parades as triumphalist and intimidating). During the Troubles, the
marching season often provoked fierce violence. Many Protestant organizations view the existing marching season often provoked fierce violence. Many Protestant organizations view the existing
Parades Commission, which arbitrates disputes over parade routes, as largely biased in favor of Parades Commission, which arbitrates disputes over parade routes, as largely biased in favor of
Catholics and have repeatedly argued for abolishing the commission.Catholics and have repeatedly argued for abolishing the commission.2223 Efforts over the years to Efforts over the years to
address the contentious issue of parading and related protests have stal ed repeatedly. address the contentious issue of parading and related protests have stal ed repeatedly.
A series of protests in late 2012 and early 2013 highlighted frictions between the unionist and A series of protests in late 2012 and early 2013 highlighted frictions between the unionist and
nationalist communities. Protests began following a decision to fly the union (UK) flag at Belfast nationalist communities. Protests began following a decision to fly the union (UK) flag at Belfast
City Hal only on designated days rather than year-round. The protests, mostly by unionists and City Hal only on designated days rather than year-round. The protests, mostly by unionists and
loyalists, occurred in Belfast and elsewhere in Northern Ireland, and some turned violent. loyalists, occurred in Belfast and elsewhere in Northern Ireland, and some turned violent.
Northern Ireland leaders on both sides of the sectarian divide received death threats, and some Northern Ireland leaders on both sides of the sectarian divide received death threats, and some
political party offices were vandalized. political party offices were vandalized.23
~~In June 2016, a Commission on Flags, Identity, Culture, and Tradition was established to assess~~
~~these contentious issues and to recommend policies and solutions to help address them. This~~
~~commission consists of 15 members, with 7 appointed by Northern Ireland’s political parties and~~
~~8 drawn from outside the government; it was original y proposed by the Haass initiative and~~
~~subsequently endorsed in the Stormont House Agreement and the Fresh Start Agreement.~~
~~Although this commission was supposed to produce a report with its recommendations within 18~~
~~months, its work was delayed by the size of its task and the collapse of the devolved government~~
~~between 2017 and 2020. The commission delivered its report to the First Minister and Deputy~~

~~Assembly to Sit on Saturday After T hree Years,” Guardian, January 10, 2020; and Charles Landow, “Brexit Still~~
~~Looms over Northern Ireland’s New Government,” Foreign Policy, January 14, 2020.~~
~~21 “Northern Ireland Interfaces: More Residents Want Peace Walls to Stay,” BBC News, December 15, 2015; Paul~~
~~Nolan, “T wo T ribes: A Divided Northern Ireland,” Irish Times, April 1, 2017; “Will NI’s Peace Walls Come Down by~~
24 20 T he text of the New Decade, New Approach deal is available at Government of the UK, “Deal to See Restored Government in Northern Ireland T omorrow,” January 9, 2020, at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deal-to-see-restored-government -in-northern-ireland-tomorrow. Also see Henry McDonald and Lisa O’Carroll, “ Northern Ireland Assembly to Sit on Saturday After T hree Years,” Guardian, January 10, 2020; and Charles Landow, “Brexit Still Looms over Northern Ireland’s New Government,” Foreign Policy, January 14, 2020. 21 Paul Nolan, “T wo T ribes: A Divided Northern Ireland,” Irish Times, April 1, 2017; Robbie Meredith, “Integrated Education: DUP MLA Says All Schools Should Be Integrated,” BBC News, November 25, 2020. 22 “Northern Ireland Interfaces: More Residents Want Peace Walls to Stay,” BBC News, December 15, 2015; “Will NI’s Peace Walls Come Down by 2023 to Meet 10-Year T arget?,” BBC News, May 3, 2018; International Fund for Ireland, 2023 to Meet 10-Year T arget?,” BBC News, May 3, 2018; International Fund for Ireland, Peace Walls Program m e
Attitudinal Survey: Sum ~~m ary~~mary of Results, November 2019. , November 2019.
2223 T he Parades Commission was established in 1998 as an independent body to T he Parades Commission was established in 1998 as an independent body to ~~rule~~r ule on disputed parades. on disputed parades.
23 24 “Q&A: Northern Ireland Flag Protests,” BBC News, December 8, 2012. “Q&A: Northern Ireland Flag Protests,” BBC News, December 8, 2012.
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~~First Minister~~In June 2016, a Commission on Flags, Identity, Culture, and Tradition was established to assess these contentious issues and to recommend policies and solutions to help address them. This commission consists of 15 members, with 7 appointed by Northern Ireland’s political parties and 8 drawn from outside the government; it was original y proposed by the Haass initiative and subsequently endorsed in the Stormont House Agreement and the Fresh Start Agreement. Although this commission was supposed to produce a report with its recommendations within 18 months, its work was delayed by the size of its task and the collapse of the devolved government between 2017 and 2020. The commission delivered its report to the first minister and deputy first minister in July 2020, but the report has not yet been shared with the rest of the Northern ~~in July 2020, but the report has not yet been shared with the rest of the Northern~~
Ireland Executive, the Assembly, or the public.Ireland Executive, the Assembly, or the public.24 In March 2021, the Northern Ireland Assembly passed a motion cal ing for the Executive to publish the commission’s report.25
Dealing with the Past
Fully addressing the legacy of violence in Northern Ireland remains controversial. The Good Fully addressing the legacy of violence in Northern Ireland remains controversial. The Good
Friday Agreement asserted that, “it is essential to acknowledge and address the suffering of the Friday Agreement asserted that, “it is essential to acknowledge and address the suffering of the
victims of violence as a necessary element of reconciliation.” In 2008, the Northern Ireland victims of violence as a necessary element of reconciliation.” In 2008, the Northern Ireland
Assembly established a Commission for Victims and Survivors aimed at supporting victims and Assembly established a Commission for Victims and Survivors aimed at supporting victims and
their families. Several legal processes for examining crimes stemming from the Troubles also their families. Several legal processes for examining crimes stemming from the Troubles also
exist. These include investigations into deaths related to the conflict by a dedicated unit within the exist. These include investigations into deaths related to the conflict by a dedicated unit within the
PSNI; investigations by the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland (PONI) of historical cases PSNI; investigations by the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland (PONI) of historical cases
involving al egations of police misconduct; and public inquiries, such as the Savil e inquiry involving al egations of police misconduct; and public inquiries, such as the Savil e inquiry
(concluded in 2010) into the 1972 Bloody Sunday incident. (concluded in 2010) into the 1972 Bloody Sunday incident.
Critics argue these various legal processes represent a piecemeal approach and give some deaths Critics argue these various legal processes represent a piecemeal approach and give some deaths
or incidents priority over others. Many observers note that progress in investigations has been or incidents priority over others. Many observers note that progress in investigations has been
slow; as of 2019, there were roughly 1,700 conflict-related cases in total awaiting investigation by slow; as of 2019, there were roughly 1,700 conflict-related cases in total awaiting investigation by
the PSNI or the PONI.the PSNI or the PONI.2526 Others point out the expense and time involved with some of these Others point out the expense and time involved with some of these
processes; for example, the Bloody Sunday inquiry cost £195 mil ion (more than $300 mil ion) processes; for example, the Bloody Sunday inquiry cost £195 mil ion (more than $300 mil ion)
and took 12 years to complete.and took 12 years to complete.2627 Reaching consensus on the best way to address Northern Reaching consensus on the best way to address Northern
Ireland’s legacy of violence has been difficult, in large part because many unionists and Ireland’s legacy of violence has been difficult, in large part because many unionists and
nationalists continue to view the conflict differently and retain competing narratives. nationalists continue to view the conflict differently and retain competing narratives.
The 2014 Stormont House Agreement cal ed for establishing four new bodies to address “legacy The 2014 Stormont House Agreement cal ed for establishing four new bodies to address “legacy
issues” (based largely on proposals made during the 2013 Haass initiative): issues” (based largely on proposals made during the 2013 Haass initiative):
  Historical Investigations Unit (HIU). This body would take forward the work This body would take forward the work
of the PSNI and the PONI in investigating outstanding cases related to the of the PSNI and the PONI in investigating outstanding cases related to the
Troubles. The UK government pledged full disclosure to the HIU. Troubles. The UK government pledged full disclosure to the HIU.
  Independent Commission for Information Retrieval (ICIR). The ICIR would The ICIR would
enable victims and survivors to seek and privately receive information about enable victims and survivors to seek and privately receive information about
conflict-related violence. It would be established by the UK and Irish conflict-related violence. It would be established by the UK and Irish
governments but would be governments but would be ~~entirely~~ separate from the justice systems in each separate from the justice systems in each
jurisdiction. Any information provided to the ICIR would be inadmissible in jurisdiction. Any information provided to the ICIR would be inadmissible in
~~criminal and civil proceedings, but individuals who provided information would~~
~~not be immune to prosecution for any crime committed should evidentiary~~
~~requirements be met by other means.~~
~~ Oral History Archive. This archive would provide a central place for people~~
~~from al backgrounds to share experiences and narratives related to the Troubles.~~
~~ Implementation and Reconciliation Group. This body would oversee work on~~
~~themes, archives, and information recovery in an effort to promote reconciliation~~
~~and reduce sectarianism.~~
criminal and
2425 Jayne McCormack, “Dr. Dominic Bryan: NI Flags Commission’s Brief T oo Big,” BBC News, June 27, 2019; “Let Jayne McCormack, “Dr. Dominic Bryan: NI Flags Commission’s Brief T oo Big,” BBC News, June 27, 2019; “Let
Us See Flags and Culture Report Now,” Us See Flags and Culture Report Now,” Belfast Telegraph, February 26, 2021, February 26, 2021; Jayne McCormack, “Stormont Votes for Release of Completed Flags and Culture Report,” BBC News, March 22, 2021. 26.
25 Commission for Victims and Survivors, Commission for Victims and Survivors, Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past, January 2019, p. 20, at , January 2019, p. 20, at
https://www.cvsni.org/media/1970/jan-2019-addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-ireland-s-past-policy-advice-paper.pdf. https://www.cvsni.org/media/1970/jan-2019-addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-ireland-s-past-policy-advice-paper.pdf.
2627 James Clarke, “Was the Bloody Sunday Report Value for Money?,” BBC News, June 14, 2010. James Clarke, “Was the Bloody Sunday Report Value for Money?,” BBC News, June 14, 2010.
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civil proceedings, but individuals who provided information would not be immune to prosecution should evidentiary requirements be met by other means.  Oral History Archive. This archive would provide a central place for people from al backgrounds to share experiences and narratives related to the Troubles.  Implementation and Reconciliation Group. This body would oversee work on themes, archives, and information recovery in an effort to promote reconciliation and reduce sectarianism. Efforts to establish these four new institutions in UK law, however, largely stal ed due to Efforts to establish these four new institutions in UK law, however, largely stal ed due to
divisions between the UK government, on the one hand, and some nationalists and human rights divisions between the UK government, on the one hand, and some nationalists and human rights
advocates, on the other, over proposed “national security caveats” related to the disclosure of advocates, on the other, over proposed “national security caveats” related to the disclosure of
certain information. Victims groups and nationalists were concerned that “national security” certain information. Victims groups and nationalists were concerned that “national security”
could be used to cover up criminal wrongdoing by state agents. At the same time, unionists could be used to cover up criminal wrongdoing by state agents. At the same time, unionists
voiced concern that the proposed HIU could unfairly target former soldiers and police officers, voiced concern that the proposed HIU could unfairly target former soldiers and police officers,
and many argued that any measures to deal with the past in Northern Ireland should contain a and many argued that any measures to deal with the past in Northern Ireland should contain a
statute of limitations or amnesty to prosecutions. Successive government crises and the stalemate statute of limitations or amnesty to prosecutions. Successive government crises and the stalemate
in reestablishing the devolved government between 2017 and early 2020 also impeded work on in reestablishing the devolved government between 2017 and early 2020 also impeded work on
implementing these mechanisms to address Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence. implementing these mechanisms to address Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence.2728
In the January 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal to reestablish the devolved government, In the January 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal to reestablish the devolved government,
the UK government pledged to introduce legislation in the UK Parliament to set up the legacy the UK government pledged to introduce legislation in the UK Parliament to set up the legacy
bodies proposed in the 2014 Stormont House Agreement. In March 2020, the UK government bodies proposed in the 2014 Stormont House Agreement. In March 2020, the UK government
outlined its intentions for the new legacy mechanisms. UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland outlined its intentions for the new legacy mechanisms. UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Brandon Lewis asserted that the UK government would “remain true to the principles of the Brandon Lewis asserted that the UK government would “remain true to the principles of the
Stormont House Agreement” but essential y suggested some significant changes in an effort to Stormont House Agreement” but essential y suggested some significant changes in an effort to
put “greater emphasis on gathering information for families” and “moving at a faster pace to put “greater emphasis on gathering information for families” and “moving at a faster pace to
retrieve knowledge before it is lost” to the passage of time. retrieve knowledge before it is lost” to the passage of time.2829
Instead of the two separate HIU and ICIR bodies cal ed for in the Stormont House Agreement, Instead of the two separate HIU and ICIR bodies cal ed for in the Stormont House Agreement,
Secretary of State Lewis proposed a single “independent body” to “oversee and manage both the Secretary of State Lewis proposed a single “independent body” to “oversee and manage both the
information recovery and investigative aspects of the legacy system” in order to ensure the information recovery and investigative aspects of the legacy system” in order to ensure the
investigations were “effective and thorough, but quick.”investigations were “effective and thorough, but quick.”2930 Under the UK government’s Under the UK government’s ~~new~~ plan, plan,
the vast majority of cases stemming from the Troubles the vast majority of cases stemming from the Troubles ~~are~~would not not be expected to receive full police expected to receive full police
investigations or to be referred for prosecution (although victim’s families stil would receive investigations or to be referred for prosecution (although victim’s families stil would receive
reports). The UK government claims this approach would “end the cycle of reinvestigations that reports). The UK government claims this approach would “end the cycle of reinvestigations that
has failed victims and veterans for too long”; once cases were considered and a decision reached, has failed victims and veterans for too long”; once cases were considered and a decision reached,
there would be a “legal bar” on any future investigations. there would be a “legal bar” on any future investigations.3031
The UK’s March 2020 proposal was widely rejected by Sinn Fein, other nationalists, and many The UK’s March 2020 proposal was widely rejected by Sinn Fein, other nationalists, and many
human rights organizations as short-changing victims and families and as impeding due process human rights organizations as short-changing victims and families and as impeding due process
and the delivery of justice. The Irish government also expressed substantial concerns and noted and the delivery of justice. The Irish government also expressed substantial concerns and noted
~~that any changes to the legacy approach as outlined in the 2014 Stormont House Agreement must~~
~~be agreed between the UK and Irish governments.31 The UK House of Common’s Northern~~
~~Ireland Affairs Committee initiated an investigation and issued an interim report in October 2020~~
~~that was highly critical of the government’s new proposal.32 Some experts view the proposed new~~

27 28 Anne Cadwallader, “Bereaved Families Have a Right to the T ruth,” Anne Cadwallader, “Bereaved Families Have a Right to the T ruth,” Irish Times, December 31, 2015; “Villiers Meets , December 31, 2015; “Villiers Meets
U.S. Lawyers in Bid to Resolve National Security Veto Dispute,” U.S. Lawyers in Bid to Resolve National Security Veto Dispute,” Belfast Telegraph, February 17, 2016; Gareth , February 17, 2016; Gareth
Gordon, “T roubles Legacy Consultation Launched by Government,” BBC News, May 11, 2018. Gordon, “T roubles Legacy Consultation Launched by Government,” BBC News, May 11, 2018.
2829 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Statement to the UK Parliament, “Addressing Northern Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Statement to the UK Parliament, “Addressing Northern
Ireland Legacy Issues,” March 18, 2020, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2020-Ireland Legacy Issues,” March 18, 2020, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2020-
03-18/HCWS168. 03-18/HCWS168.
2930 Ibid. Ibid.
3031 UK Government Press Release, “UK Government Sets Out Way Forward on the Legacy of the Past in Northern UK Government Press Release, “UK Government Sets Out Way Forward on the Legacy of the Past in Northern
Ireland,” March 18, 2020. Ireland,” March 18, 2020.
~~31 Julian O’Neill, “New Plan for NI T roubles Cases to ‘Limit’ Investigations,” BBC News, March 18, 2020; Irish~~
~~Government Press Release, “Statement by T anaiste on UK Government Legacy Announcement,” March 18, 2020.~~
~~32 UK House~~ Congressional Research Service 12 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests that any changes to the legacy approach as outlined in the 2014 Stormont House Agreement must be agreed between the UK and Irish governments. The UK House of Common’s Northern Ireland Affairs Committee initiated an investigation and issued an interim report in October 2020 that was highly critical of the government’s proposal. Some observers view the approach proposed by the government as backtracking on the commitments in the Stormont House Agreement in the interest of making concessions to unionists and some Members of Parliament who argue that British soldiers should not be prosecuted for actions taken in service to the state in Northern Ireland. Those against prosecutions of British veterans also contend that doing so would reopen old wounds in Northern Ireland and be detrimental to the peace process.32 The issue of prosecuting former British soldiers who served in Northern Ireland during the Troubles remains contentious. During the 2019 UK general election, Prime Minister Johnson pledged to protect veterans from prosecutions related to their past service in Northern Ireland. In April 2021, however, the UK minister for veterans essential y accused the government of failing to shield former soldiers from Troubles-era prosecutions (he was forced to resign his ministerial position subsequently). In May 2021, the trial of two former British soldiers accused of murdering a republican paramilitary in 1972 collapsed due to a lack of admissible evidence. Four other soldiers who served in Northern Ireland continue to face prosecution for their actions during the Troubles.33 Questions about dealing with Northern Ireland’s legacy of violence and pursuing justice have been highlighted further by the May 2021 findings of a coroner’s inquest into ten deaths in August 1971 in the Bal ymurphy area of Belfast; the inquest concluded that al ten people kil ed were “entirely innocent” and that nine of the ten were kil ed by the British Army (the inquest could not definitively determine who had shot the tenth victim).34 The UK government did not introduce a bil on legacy issues in 2020, but is expected to bring forward legislation in 2021 to deal with past violence in Northern Ireland. The UK government asserts that the forthcoming legislation wil seek to address the needs of both victims and veterans.35 Media reports suggest that similar to the government’s March 2020 proposal, the new legislation is to focus on information recovery, but also may effectively ban Troubles-related prosecutions of former soldiers and former republican and loyalist paramilitaries. The Irish government and many nationalists have reacted largely negatively to a possible ban on prosecutions of former soldiers. Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald, for example, asserted that any such proposal would be “an attempt to put British soldiers above the law,” continue what many in the nationalist community view as the UK government’s “decades long cover-ups,” and further frustrate families “in their efforts to get truth and justice.”36 Meanwhile, the DUP and 32 Julian O’Neill, “New Plan for NI T roubles Cases to ‘Limit’ Investigations,” BBC News, March 18, 2020; Irish Government Press Release, “Statement by T anaiste on UK Government Legacy Announcement,” March 18, 2020; UK House of Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past: the Government’s New Proposals (Interim Report), October 26, 2020, at https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/3186/documents/29458/default/. 33 “Johnny Mercer: T ory MP Resigns as Defense Minister,” BBC News, April 20,2021; David Young, “ T rial of British Army Veterans Accused of Official IRA Leader’s Murder Collapses,” Irish Times, May 4, 2021. 34 A coroner’s inquest is a fact -finding exercise to determine the circumstances of a death; it is not a trial and the coroner does not decide questions of criminal or civil liability. For more information on the Ballymurphy inquest, see Colm Kelpie, “Ballymurphy Inquest: Coroner Finds 10 Victims Were Innocent,” BBC News, May 11, 2021. Also see UK House of Commons Library, Investigations of Form er Arm ed Forces Personnel Who Served in Northern Ireland , February 22, 2021. 35 UK Government, Queen’s Speech 2021: Background Briefing Notes, May 11, 2021, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/queens-speech-2021-background-briefing-notes. 36 As quoted in BBC News, “T roubles: Unilateral Move by UK on Veterans Would ‘Breach T rust,’” May 6, 2021. Congressional Research Service 13 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests other unionists regard former paramilitaries as “terrorists,” object to any “moral equivalency” between the actions of soldiers and paramilitaries, and oppose any potential ban on prosecuting former paramilitaries.37 Remaining Paramilitary Issues and Dissident Activity Paramilitary Concerns Experts contend the major republican and loyalist ~~of Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee,~~ ~~Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past: the~~
~~Government’s New Proposals (Interim Report), October 26, 2020, at https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/~~
~~3186/documents/29458/default/.~~
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~~UK approach as backtracking on its commitments in the Stormont House Agreement in the~~
~~interest of making concessions to unionists and some Members of Parliament who argue that~~
~~British soldiers should not be prosecuted for actions taken in service to the state in Northern~~
~~Ireland and that doing so would reopen old wounds and be detrimental to the peace process.33~~
~~The UK government has not yet introduced draft legislation to enact its new proposed approach~~
~~to dealing with Northern Ireland’s past. In January 2021, the UK government released its~~
~~response to the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee’s interim report and sought to emphasize~~
~~areas of agreement with the committee. The committee welcomed the government’s “change in~~
~~tone” and its pledge to consult with a wide range of stakeholders, including victims’ groups.34~~
~~Remaining Paramilitary Issues and Dissident Activity~~
~~Paramilitary Concerns~~
~~Experts contend the major~~ paramilitary organizations active during the Troubles are now paramilitary organizations active during the Troubles are now
committed to the political process and remain on cease-fire. However, the apparent continued committed to the political process and remain on cease-fire. However, the apparent continued
existence of some groups and their engagement in criminality worries many in both the unionist existence of some groups and their engagement in criminality worries many in both the unionist
and the nationalist communities. In response to heightened concerns about paramilitary activity in and the nationalist communities. In response to heightened concerns about paramilitary activity in
Northern Ireland in 2015, the UK government commissioned a study on Northern Ireland in 2015, the UK government commissioned a study on the status of republican the status of republican
and loyalist paramilitary groups.and loyalist paramilitary groups.3538 This review found that al the main paramilitary groups This review found that al the main paramilitary groups
operating during the Troubles stil exist, but they are on cease-fire and the leadership of each operating during the Troubles stil exist, but they are on cease-fire and the leadership of each
group, “to different degrees,” is “committed to peaceful means to achieve their political group, “to different degrees,” is “committed to peaceful means to achieve their political
objectives.” At the same time, the review concluded that individual members of paramilitary objectives.” At the same time, the review concluded that individual members of paramilitary
groups stil represent a threat to national security, including through their groups stil represent a threat to national security, including through their involvement in involvement in
organized crime, and “there is regular unsanctioned activity including behavior in organized crime, and “there is regular unsanctioned activity including behavior in ~~direct~~
direct contravention of leadership instruction.”contravention of leadership instruction.”3639
The 2015 Fresh Start Agreement sought to address concerns about the main paramilitary groups The 2015 Fresh Start Agreement sought to address concerns about the main paramilitary groups
in Northern Ireland. Among other measures, it enumerated a in Northern Ireland. Among other measures, it enumerated a ~~new~~ set of principles that cal upon set of principles that cal upon
members of the Assembly and the Executive to work toward disbanding al paramilitary members of the Assembly and the Executive to work toward disbanding al paramilitary
organizations and to take no instructions from such groups. The agreement also cal ed for organizations and to take no instructions from such groups. The agreement also cal ed for
establishing a new, four-member international body to monitor paramilitary activity and to report establishing a new, four-member international body to monitor paramilitary activity and to report
annual yannual y on progress toward ending such activity. The resulting Independent Reporting on progress toward ending such activity. The resulting Independent Reporting
Commission (IRC) began work in 2017; the UK and Irish governments each named one Commission (IRC) began work in 2017; the UK and Irish governments each named one
representative to the IRC, and the Northern Ireland Executive named two.representative to the IRC, and the Northern Ireland Executive named two.3740 In its third annual report, released in November 2020, the IRC asserted that paramilitarism “remains a reality of Northern Ireland life” and urged tackling continued paramilitary activity with a “twin track” approach that combines policing and criminal justice responses with measures to address the underlying socioeconomic chal enges facing communities in which paramilitaries operate.41 Concerns persist about the influence of paramilitaries in Northern Ireland society. In early March 2021, loyalist paramilitary groups announced they were withdrawing support for the Good Friday Agreement temporarily due to concerns about the implementation of the post-Brexit trade 37 “T roubles Prosecutions Limit ‘Should Apply to All,’” BBC News, April 21, 2021; “Ballymurphy Inquest: Anger Over Manner of PM Apology,” BBC News, May 13, 2021. 38 ~~In its third annual~~

~~33 “Stormont Deal: Boris Johnson Restates Support for T roubles Veterans,” BBC News, January 13, 2020; Julian~~
~~O’Neill, “T roubles Legacy: MPs Dismiss Proposals as Unhelpful,” BBC News, October 26, 2020.~~
~~34 UK House of Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, “Troubles Legacy Interim Report: Government~~
~~Response,” January 18, 2021, at https://committees.parliament.uk/work/282/addressing-the-legacy-of-northern-~~
~~irelands-past -the-uk-governments-new-proposals/news/138524/troubles-legacy-interim-report -government-response/.~~
35 T he 2015 assessment focused on the following paramilitary groups: the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF); the Red Hand T he 2015 assessment focused on the following paramilitary groups: the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF); the Red Hand
Commando (RHC); the Ulster Defense Association (UDA, which also conducted attacks under the name of the Ulster Commando (RHC); the Ulster Defense Association (UDA, which also conducted attacks under the name of the Ulster
Freedom Fighters, or UFF); the South East Antrim (SEA) group of the UDA; Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF); the Irish Freedom Fighters, or UFF); the South East Antrim (SEA) group of the UDA; Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF); the Irish
Republican Army (IRA, also known as the Provisional Irish Republican Army, or PIRA); and the Irish National Republican Army (IRA, also known as the Provisional Irish Republican Army, or PIRA); and the Irish National
Liberation Army (INLA). Liberation Army (INLA).
3639 Government of the UK, Government of the UK, Independent Report: Assessment on Paramilitary Groups in Northern Ireland, October 20, , October 20,
2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment -on-paramilitary-groups-in-northern-ireland. 2015, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment -on-paramilitary-groups-in-northern-ireland.
3740 T he UK government chose former U.S. Special Envoy for Northern Ireland Mitchell Reiss as its representative on T he UK government chose former U.S. Special Envoy for Northern Ireland Mitchell Reiss as its representative on
the IRC. Reiss served as special envoy in the George W. Bush Administration from 2003 to 2007. the IRC. Reiss served as special envoy in the George W. Bush Administration from 2003 to 2007.
41 Independent Reporting Commission Third Report, November 17, 2020, at https://www.ircommission.org/news-centre/irc-third-report. Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
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~~report, released in November 2020, the IRC asserted that paramilitarism “remains a reality of~~
~~Northern Ireland life” and urged tackling continued paramilitary activity with a “twin track”~~
~~approach that combines policing and criminal justice responses with measures to address the~~
~~underlying socioeconomic chal enges facing communities in which paramilitaries operate.38~~arrangements for Northern Ireland that they view as dividing Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and threatening the union. Although these loyalist groups remain on cease-fire, they also warn that the current Brexit-related problems, if not resolved, could lead to the “permanent destruction” of the peace accord (see “Implications of Brexit,” below).42
The Dissident Threat
Security assessments indicate that dissident republican and loyalist groups not on cease-fire and Security assessments indicate that dissident republican and loyalist groups not on cease-fire and
opposed to the 1998 peace accord continue to present serious threats. The aforementioned 2015 opposed to the 1998 peace accord continue to present serious threats. The aforementioned 2015
review of paramilitary groups maintained that the most significant terrorist threat in Northern review of paramilitary groups maintained that the most significant terrorist threat in Northern
Ireland was posed not by the groups evaluated in that report but rather by dissident republicans. Ireland was posed not by the groups evaluated in that report but rather by dissident republicans.
The review described dissident loyalist groups as posing another, albeit “smal er,” threat. The review described dissident loyalist groups as posing another, albeit “smal er,” threat.
At the same time, experts note that dissident groups do not have the same capacity to mount a At the same time, experts note that dissident groups do not have the same capacity to mount a
sustained terror campaign as the IRA did between the 1970s and the 1990s. Most of the dissident sustained terror campaign as the IRA did between the 1970s and the 1990s. Most of the dissident
republican groups are smal in comparison to the IRA during the height of the Troubles.republican groups are smal in comparison to the IRA during the height of the Troubles.3943
According to UK security services, there are currently four main dissident republican groups: the According to UK security services, there are currently four main dissident republican groups: the
Continuity IRA (CIRA); Óglaigh na hÉireann (ÓNH); Arm na Poblachta (ANP), and the New Continuity IRA (CIRA); Óglaigh na hÉireann (ÓNH); Arm na Poblachta (ANP), and the New
IRA (which reportedly was formed in 2012). These groups have sought to target police officers, IRA (which reportedly was formed in 2012). These groups have sought to target police officers,
prison officers, and other members of the security services in particular. Between 2009 and 2017, prison officers, and other members of the security services in particular. Between 2009 and 2017,
dissident republicans were responsible for the deaths of two PSNI officers, two British soldiers, dissident republicans were responsible for the deaths of two PSNI officers, two British soldiers,
and two prison officers. and two prison officers.4044
In January 2018, ÓNH declared itself on cease-fire, although a smal splinter group formed in In January 2018, ÓNH declared itself on cease-fire, although a smal splinter group formed in
opposition to the cease-fire. The other groups remain active, and authorities warn the threat posed opposition to the cease-fire. The other groups remain active, and authorities warn the threat posed
by the New IRA in particular is severe. Police suspect the New IRA was responsible for a January by the New IRA in particular is severe. Police suspect the New IRA was responsible for a January
2019 car bomb that exploded in Londonderry (or Derry). As noted above, the New IRA claimed 2019 car bomb that exploded in Londonderry (or Derry). As noted above, the New IRA claimed
responsibility for kil ing journalist Lyra McKee in April 2019. Many observers noted a slight responsibility for kil ing journalist Lyra McKee in April 2019. Many observers noted a slight
uptick in dissident republican activity in 2019, especial y in border regions, as the New IRA and uptick in dissident republican activity in 2019, especial y in border regions, as the New IRA and
the Continuity IRA sought to exploit the stalemates over both Northern Ireland’s devolved the Continuity IRA sought to exploit the stalemates over both Northern Ireland’s devolved
government and Brexit. Security services also report a “growing sophistication” in dissident government and Brexit. Security services also report a “growing sophistication” in dissident
republican explosive devices and that the New IRA has attempted to obtain weapons overseas. republican explosive devices and that the New IRA has attempted to obtain weapons overseas.4145
Economic Development and Equal Opportunity
Many assert that one of the best ways to ensure a lasting peace in Northern Ireland and deny Many assert that one of the best ways to ensure a lasting peace in Northern Ireland and deny
dissident groups new recruits is to promote continued economic development and equal dissident groups new recruits is to promote continued economic development and equal
opportunity for Catholics and Protestants. Northern Ireland’s economy has made considerable opportunity for Catholics and Protestants. Northern Ireland’s economy has made considerable
advances since the 1990s. Between 1997 and 2007, Northern Ireland’s economy grew an average advances since the 1990s. Between 1997 and 2007, Northern Ireland’s economy grew an average
~~of 5.6% annual y (marginal y above the UK average of 5.4%). Unemployment decreased from~~

~~38 Independent Reporting Commission Third Report, November 17, 2020, at https://www.ircommission.org/news-~~
~~centre/irc-third-report.~~
39 42 As quoted in Guy Faulconbridge and Amanda Ferguson, “Northern Irish Loyalist Paramilitaries Withdraw Support for 1998 Peace Deal,” Reuters, March 4, 2021. Also see Shawn Pogatchnik, “Who Are the Northern Ireland Loyalists T hreatening to Shun Peace Deal over Brexit Fears?,” Politico, March 5, 2021. 43 David McKittrick, “Northern Ireland: T he Peace Process and the Dissident Menace,” David McKittrick, “Northern Ireland: T he Peace Process and the Dissident Menace,” The Independent, February 18, , February 18,
2014; Richard English, “Why Republican Dissidents Have Not —And Will Not—Go Away,” 2014; Richard English, “Why Republican Dissidents Have Not —And Will Not—Go Away,” Irish Times, July 19, , July 19,
2017. 2017.
4044 MI5, “Northern Ireland,” at https://www.mi5.gov.uk/northern-ireland. MI5, “Northern Ireland,” at https://www.mi5.gov.uk/northern-ireland.
4145 Naomi O’Leary, “Northern Ireland Bomb Is a Warning We Can’t Ignore,” Naomi O’Leary, “Northern Ireland Bomb Is a Warning We Can’t Ignore,” ~~Politico Europe~~, January 22, 2019; Julian January 22, 2019; Julian
O’Neill, “Q&A: Why Is Dissident Republican Activity on the Rise?,” BBC News, September 15, 2019; “Security O’Neill, “Q&A: Why Is Dissident Republican Activity on the Rise?,” BBC News, September 15, 2019; “Security
Report Warns of Dissidents’ Growing Sophistication,” BBCReport Warns of Dissidents’ Growing Sophistication,” BBC News, April 30, 2020; Julian O’Neill, “News, April 30, 2020; Julian O’Neill, “ New IRANew IRA ‘Still ‘Still
Dangerous’ After MI5 and PSNI’sDangerous’ After MI5 and PSNI’s Operation Arbacia,” BBC News, September 30, 2020.Operation Arbacia,” BBC News, September 30, 2020.
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of 5.6% annual y (marginal y above the UK average of 5.4%). Unemployment decreased from over 17% in the 1980s to 4.3% by 2007.over 17% in the 1980s to 4.3% by 2007.4246 The 2008-2009 global recession affected the region, The 2008-2009 global recession affected the region,
however, and economic recovery was slow and uneven over much of the last decade. however, and economic recovery was slow and uneven over much of the last decade.
As in the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland’s economy has been severely impacted by the COVID- As in the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland’s economy has been severely impacted by the COVID-
19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on social and business activity. Northern Ireland’s 19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on social and business activity. Northern Ireland’s
economic output fel by 13.economic output fel by 13.73% in the second quarter of 2020 (April to June) during the height of % in the second quarter of 2020 (April to June) during the height of
the first COVID-19 lockdown. Although economic output in Northern Ireland rebounded in the the first COVID-19 lockdown. Although economic output in Northern Ireland rebounded in the
third quarter of 2020 (July to September) to 15.third quarter of 2020 (July to September) to 15.51% growth, % growth, ~~economic output decreased by 2.9%~~
it decreased by 1.4% in the fourth quarter (October to December). Although Northern Ireland’s economy declined by 2.8% in real terms over the year to in real terms over the year to ~~September 2020.43 At the end of 2020~~December 2020, this was a slower rate of decline in comparison to the UK average decline of 7.3%. As of early 2021, the unemployment rate in , the unemployment rate in
Northern Ireland was 3.Northern Ireland was 3.67%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous year but lower %, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous year but lower
than the UKthan the UK average average unemployment rate of unemployment rate of ~~5.1%.44~~4.9%.47
Both the UK government and the Northern Ireland Executive have implemented a range of Both the UK government and the Northern Ireland Executive have implemented a range of
measures to mitigate COVID-19’s adverse economic effects. These measures include financial measures to mitigate COVID-19’s adverse economic effects. These measures include financial
support to enable businesses to retain workers, assistance for the self-employed, government-support to enable businesses to retain workers, assistance for the self-employed, government-
backed loans for businesses, and additional funding for public services.backed loans for businesses, and additional funding for public services.4548 Some experts suggest Some experts suggest
Northern Ireland’s economic recovery could be slower than recovery in the rest of the UK, given Northern Ireland’s economic recovery could be slower than recovery in the rest of the UK, given
the lingering effects of the 2008-2009 recession and the region’s relatively lower levels of the lingering effects of the 2008-2009 recession and the region’s relatively lower levels of
competitiveness. competitiveness.4649
Other long-standing economic difficulties and disparities also persist in Northern Ireland. Income Other long-standing economic difficulties and disparities also persist in Northern Ireland. Income
levels and living standards in Northern Ireland remain below the UK average. Of the UK’s 12 levels and living standards in Northern Ireland remain below the UK average. Of the UK’s 12
economic regions, Northern Ireland had the fifth-lowest gross value added per capita in 2018 economic regions, Northern Ireland had the fifth-lowest gross value added per capita in 2018
(£25,981, or about $33,900), below the UK’s average (£32,216, or about $42,032).(£25,981, or about $33,900), below the UK’s average (£32,216, or about $42,032).4750 Northern Northern
Ireland has both a high rate of economic inactivity (28%) and a high proportion of working-age Ireland has both a high rate of economic inactivity (28%) and a high proportion of working-age
individuals with no formal qualifications. Studies indicate that the historical y poorest areas in individuals with no formal qualifications. Studies indicate that the historical y poorest areas in
Northern Ireland (many of which bore the brunt of the Troubles) remain so and that many of the Northern Ireland (many of which bore the brunt of the Troubles) remain so and that many of the
areas considered to be the most deprived are predominantly Catholic. areas considered to be the most deprived are predominantly Catholic.4851
At the same time, Northern Ireland has made strides in promoting equality in its workforce. The At the same time, Northern Ireland has made strides in promoting equality in its workforce. The
gap in economic activity rates between Protestants and Catholics has shrunk considerably since gap in economic activity rates between Protestants and Catholics has shrunk considerably since
1992 (when there was a 10-percentage-point difference) and has largely converged in the last few 1992 (when there was a 10-percentage-point difference) and has largely converged in the last few
years. The most recent data available indicate that in 2017, the economic activity rate was 70% years. The most recent data available indicate that in 2017, the economic activity rate was 70%

4246 Orla Ryan, “Northern Ireland’s Economic Fears,” BBC News, June 22 Orla Ryan, “Northern Ireland’s Economic Fears,” BBC News, June 22 , 2001; Northern Ireland Executive Economic , 2001; Northern Ireland Executive Economic
Strategy, Strategy, Consultation on Priorities for Sustainable Growth and Prosperity, January 2011. , January 2011.
4347 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index Quarter 34 2020, ,
~~January 14, 2021.~~
44April 8, 2021; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Labour Market Report, , ~~February 23,~~ April 20, 2021. 2021.
45 48 Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service, Northern Ireland Assembly Research and Information Service, Overview of COVID-19 Funding in NI and the
Econom ic Im plications: An Update, December 16, 2020; UK T reasury, “ Extra £800 Million to Support Scotland, , December 16, 2020; UK T reasury, “ Extra £800 Million to Support Scotland,
Wales and Northern Ireland through Covid-19 T his Year,” press release, December 24, 2020. Wales and Northern Ireland through Covid-19 T his Year,” press release, December 24, 2020.
4649 Esmond Birnie and Graham Brownlow, “How Will Covid-19 Affect Northern Ireland’s Economy?,” Esmond Birnie and Graham Brownlow, “How Will Covid-19 Affect Northern Ireland’s Economy?,”
EconomicsObservatory.com, May 28, 2020. EconomicsObservatory.com, May 28, 2020.
4750 Gross value added (GVA) is similar, although not exactly equivalent, to gross domestic product; the UK government Gross value added (GVA) is similar, although not exactly equivalent, to gross domestic product; the UK government
uses GVA as the measure to compare regional economic performance. House of Commons Library uses GVA as the measure to compare regional economic performance. House of Commons Library ~~Briefing Pap er~~Brief ing Paper, ,
Regional and Country Econom ic Indicators, February 21, 2021. , February 21, 2021.
4851 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measures 2017, November , November
2017; John Campbell, “Belfast Home to Half of NI’s 100 Most Deprived 2017; John Campbell, “Belfast Home to Half of NI’s 100 Most Deprived ~~Areas~~Ar eas,” BBC News, November 24, 2017. ,” BBC News, November 24, 2017.
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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

for Protestants and 67% for Catholics. In addition, the percentage point gap in unemployment for Protestants and 67% for Catholics. In addition, the percentage point gap in unemployment
rates between the two communities decreased from 9% in 1992 to 0% in 2017. rates between the two communities decreased from 9% in 1992 to 0% in 2017.4952
Over the past decade, efforts to improve Northern Ireland’s long-term economic performance Over the past decade, efforts to improve Northern Ireland’s long-term economic performance
have sought to promote export-led growth and to decrease Northern Ireland’s economic have sought to promote export-led growth and to decrease Northern Ireland’s economic
dependency on the public sector by growing the private sector. The public sector accounts for dependency on the public sector by growing the private sector. The public sector accounts for
about 27% of total employment in the region.about 27% of total employment in the region.5053 Northern Ireland policymakers also have focused Northern Ireland policymakers also have focused
on attracting more foreign investment. In February 2021, the Northern Ireland Executive on attracting more foreign investment. In February 2021, the Northern Ireland Executive
proposed a £290 mil ion proposed a £290 mil ion (about $402 mil ion) COVID-19 economic recovery action plan—cal ed COVID-19 economic recovery action plan—cal ed ~~Rebuilding a~~
Rebuilding a Stronger Economy—centered on developing a higher skil ed and more agileStronger Economy—centered on developing a higher skil ed and more agile workforce; workforce;
stimulating research and innovation; building a greener economy; and promoting stimulating research and innovation; building a greener economy; and promoting investment, trade, and exports.54 Resurgence of Rioting and Violence in March-April 2021 In late March and early April 2021, sporadic violence and rioting erupted for roughly 12 days in several cities and towns in Northern Ireland, including Belfast and Londonderry. The unrest began with gangs of youths in a predominantly unionist/loyalist area of Londonderry on March 29; rioting in Belfast on April 7—including attacks on police officers and a bus—was described as some of the worst violence seen in Northern Ireland in years. Almost 90 police officers were injured over the course of the violence.55 Much of the unrest was concentrated in economical y disadvantaged communities where criminal gangs linked to loyalist paramilitaries have considerable influence, but the violence also spread to interface areas between unionist and nationalist neighborhoods. Although initial assessments suggested that loyalist paramilitaries could be orchestrating the riots and violence in some areas, Northern Ireland police authorities subsequently concluded that while individuals with ties to such loyalist groups may have been involved, the unrest was not sanctioned or organized by the groups.56 The Northern Ireland Assembly unanimously condemned the violence, as did the UK and Irish governments.57 A complex combination of factors lie behind the unrest. Considerable attention has focused on unionist unhappiness with the post-Brexit border and customs arrangements for Northern Ireland. Amid other demographic, political, and societal changes in Northern Ireland, the post-Brexit arrangements appear to have exacerbated unionist concerns that their British identity is under threat and enhanced a sense of unionist disenfranchisement and abandonment. Some analysts suggest that strong rhetoric against the Brexit arrangements from unionist politicians may have fueled tensions in unionist/loyalist communities further, and contributed to instigating the unrest. 52 Northern Ireland Executive Office, Labour Force Survey Religion Report 2017, January 31, 2019. 53 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Quarterly Employment Survey, December 15, 2020. 54 Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Economic Recovery Action Plan, February 25, 2021, at https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/economic-recovery-action-plan. 55 Jordan Kenny, “T imeline: How Northern Ireland’s Violence Unfolded,” BBC News, April 12, 2021; “Belfast: Rioting ‘Was Worst Seen in Northern Ireland in Years,’” BBC News, April 14, 2021. 56 Lisa O’Carroll, “Northern Ireland Police Say Paramilitaries Not Behind Recent Violence,” Guardian, April 9, 2021; Laura Noonan, “Criminal Gangs Blamed for Stoking Northern Ireland Violence,” Financial Times, April 14, 2021. 57 Peter Foster and Jim Brunsden, “London and Dublin Call for Calm After Fresh Riots in Northern Ireland,” Financial Tim es, April 8, 2021; David Young, Rebecca Black, and James Ward, “ Stormont Ministers Unite to Condemn Violence and Rioting,” Belfast Telegraph, April 8, 2021. Congressional Research Service 17 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests At the same time, observers note that the immediate spark for the violence followed a decision in late March 2021 by Northern Ireland authorities not to prosecute violations of COVID-19 social distancing restrictions and public health protocols at a 2,000-person funeral in June 2020 for a former high-ranking IRA official. The funeral was attended by Sinn Fein leadership, including Deputy First Minister O’Neil . For many unionists, this incident—and what they regarded as a lack of police enforcement of the COVID-19 restrictions on the funeral—reinforced their long- standing views of a double-standard in policing and the judiciary in favor of nationalists, and more broadly, a sense that the 1998 peace accord has benefited nationalists and republicans more than the unionist and loyalist communities. Additional factors behind the rioting also may include frustration and boredom due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, especial y among young people from economical y-deprived areas.58 Implications of Brexit59~~investment,~~
~~trade, and exports.51~~
~~Implications of Brexit~~
In the UK’s June 2016 public referendum on EU membership, voters in Northern Ireland favored In the UK’s June 2016 public referendum on EU membership, voters in Northern Ireland favored
remaining in the EU, 56% to 44% (the UK overal voted in favor of leaving, 52% to 48%). The remaining in the EU, 56% to 44% (the UK overal voted in favor of leaving, 52% to 48%). The
UK withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, but continued to apply EU rules and to UK withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, but continued to apply EU rules and to
participate in the EU’s single market and customs union until the end of participate in the EU’s single market and customs union until the end of ~~a 10~~an 11-month transition -month transition
period that concluded on December 31, 2020. Brexit has added to divisions within Northern period that concluded on December 31, 2020. Brexit has added to divisions within Northern
Ireland and poses considerable chal enges, with potential implications for Northern Ireland’s Ireland and poses considerable chal enges, with potential implications for Northern Ireland’s
peace process, economy, and, in the longer term, constitutional status. peace process, economy, and, in the longer term, constitutional status.
The Irish Border and the Withdrawal Agreement
At the time of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the EU membership of both the UK and the At the time of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the EU membership of both the UK and the
Republic of Ireland was regarded as essential to underpinning the political settlement by Republic of Ireland was regarded as essential to underpinning the political settlement by
providing a common European identity for unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland. EU law providing a common European identity for unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland. EU law
also provided a supporting framework for guaranteeing the human rights, equality, and also provided a supporting framework for guaranteeing the human rights, equality, and
nondiscrimination provisions of the peace accord. Since 1998, as security checkpoints were nondiscrimination provisions of the peace accord. Since 1998, as security checkpoints were
dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement, and because both the UK and Ireland dismantled in accordance with the peace agreement, and because both the UK and Ireland
belonged to the EU’s single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border belonged to the EU’s single market and customs union, the circuitous 300-mile land border
between Northern Ireland and Ireland effectively disappeared. The open border served as an between Northern Ireland and Ireland effectively disappeared. The open border served as an
important political and psychological symbol on both sides of the sectarian divide and helped important political and psychological symbol on both sides of the sectarian divide and helped
produce a dynamic cross-border economy. produce a dynamic cross-border economy.
Preventing a Preventing a hard border with customs checks and physical infrastructure on the island of Ireland with customs checks and physical infrastructure on the island of Ireland
was a key goal, and a major stumbling block, in negotiating the UK’s withdrawal agreement with was a key goal, and a major stumbling block, in negotiating the UK’s withdrawal agreement with
the EU. UK, Irish, and EU leaders asserted repeatedly that they did not desire a hard border post-the EU. UK, Irish, and EU leaders asserted repeatedly that they did not desire a hard border post-
Brexit. Security assessments suggested that if border or custom posts were reinstated, violent Brexit. Security assessments suggested that if border or custom posts were reinstated, violent
dissident groups opposed to the peace process would view such infrastructure as targets, dissident groups opposed to the peace process would view such infrastructure as targets,
endangering the lives of police and customs officers. Experts feared that such violence would endangering the lives of police and customs officers. Experts feared that such violence would
threaten the region’s security and stability and potential y put the entire peace process at risk. threaten the region’s security and stability and potential y put the entire peace process at risk.

~~49 Northern Ireland Executive Office, Labour Force Survey Religion Report 2017, January 31, 2019.~~
~~50 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Quarterly Employment Survey, December 15,~~
~~2020.~~
~~51 Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Economic Recovery Action Plan, February 25, 2021, at~~
~~https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/economic-recovery-action-plan.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
1658 Shawn Pogatchnik, “Northern Ireland ‘Playing with Matches’ Amid Brexit T rade Deal T ensions,” Politico, April 7, 2021; Stephen Castle, “Northern Ireland Sees Spasm of Violence as Old T ensions Resurface,” New York Times, April 8, 2021; Dan Haverty, “How Brexit Lit the Fuse in Northern Ireland,” Foreign Policy, April 13, 2021. 59 For more information on Brexit, see CRS Report R46730, Brexit: Overview, Trade, and Northern Ireland, coordinated by Derek E. Mix. Congressional Research Service 18

Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

Many in Northern Ireland and Ireland also were eager to maintain an open border to ensure Many in Northern Ireland and Ireland also were eager to maintain an open border to ensure
“frictionless” trade, safeguard the North-South economy, and protect community relations. People “frictionless” trade, safeguard the North-South economy, and protect community relations. People
in border communities worried that any hardening of the border could affect daily travel across in border communities worried that any hardening of the border could affect daily travel across
the border to work, shop, or visit family and friends. Estimates suggest there are upward of 300 the border to work, shop, or visit family and friends. Estimates suggest there are upward of 300
public and private border crossing points along the border today; during the Troubles, only a public and private border crossing points along the border today; during the Troubles, only a
fraction of crossing points were open, and hour-long delays due to security measures and fraction of crossing points were open, and hour-long delays due to security measures and
bureaucratic hurdles were common. bureaucratic hurdles were common.5260
Post-Brexit Arrangements for Northern Ireland
Devising a mechanism to maintain an open border Devising a mechanism to maintain an open border~~, however,~~ was complicated by the UK was complicated by the UK
government’s pursuit of a largely hard Brexit~~, which would~~government’s decision to keep the UK outside of the EU’s keep the UK outside of the EU’s
single market and customs union. In early 2019, the UK Parliament rejected the initial UK-EUsingle market and customs union. In early 2019, the UK Parliament rejected the initial UK-EU
withdrawal agreement three times, in large part withdrawal agreement three times, in large part because of concerns about the because of concerns about the backstop for the for the
Irish border, which would have kept the UK inside the EU customs union until the UK and EU Irish border, which would have kept the UK inside the EU customs union until the UK and EU
determined their future trade relationship. Some Brexit advocates contended that Ireland and the determined their future trade relationship. Some Brexit advocates contended that Ireland and the
EU were exaggerating and exploiting the security concerns about the border to keep the UK close EU were exaggerating and exploiting the security concerns about the border to keep the UK close
to the EU. Those of this view noted that, although the Good Friday Agreement commits the UK to the EU. Those of this view noted that, although the Good Friday Agreement commits the UK
to normalizing security arrangements—including to normalizing security arrangements—including the removal of security instal ations “consistent the removal of security instal ations “consistent
with the level of threat”—it does not explicitly require an open border. The Irish government and with the level of threat”—it does not explicitly require an open border. The Irish government and
many in Northern Ireland—as wel as most UK many in Northern Ireland—as wel as most UK officials—argued that an open border had become officials—argued that an open border had become
intrinsic to peace on the island of Ireland.intrinsic to peace on the island of Ireland.5361
In October 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a revised withdrawal agreement with a In October 2019, EU and UK negotiators reached a revised withdrawal agreement with a
renegotiated Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland to ensure an open border on the island of renegotiated Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland to ensure an open border on the island of
Ireland while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market.Ireland while safeguarding the rules of the EU single market.5462 Under the terms of the protocol, Under the terms of the protocol,
Northern Ireland Northern Ireland ~~is to remain~~remains legal y legal y in the UK customs territory but in the UK customs territory but ~~is to maintain~~maintains regulatory regulatory
alignment with the EU. In effect, this arrangement keeps Northern Ireland for al practical alignment with the EU. In effect, this arrangement keeps Northern Ireland for al practical
purposes in the purposes in the EU single market and customs union, thus eliminating the need for regulatory EU single market and customs union, thus eliminating the need for regulatory
checks on trade in goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but essential y checks on trade in goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but essential y
creating a customs border in the Irish Sea. Any physical checks necessary to ensure customs creating a customs border in the Irish Sea. Any physical checks necessary to ensure customs
compliance are to be conducted at ports or points of entry away from the Northern Ireland-Ireland compliance are to be conducted at ports or points of entry away from the Northern Ireland-Ireland
land border, with no land border, with no checks or infrastructure at this border. checks or infrastructure at this border.
The DUP strongly opposed these “Northern Ireland-only” arrangements, contending the effective The DUP strongly opposed these “Northern Ireland-only” arrangements, contending the effective
customs border in the Irish Sea would divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and customs border in the Irish Sea would divide Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and
threaten the UK’s constitutional integrity. In light of the large majority won by Prime Minister threaten the UK’s constitutional integrity. In light of the large majority won by Prime Minister
Johnson’s Conservative Party in the December 2019 UK parliamentary elections, however, the Johnson’s Conservative Party in the December 2019 UK parliamentary elections, however, the
DUP lost political influence and was unable to block approval of the renegotiated withdrawal DUP lost political influence and was unable to block approval of the renegotiated withdrawal
agreement. Both the UK and the EU subsequently ratified the withdrawal agreement, thus agreement. Both the UK and the EU subsequently ratified the withdrawal agreement, thus
enabling the UK to end its 47-year membership in the EU in January 2020. enabling the UK to end its 47-year membership in the EU in January 2020.

5260 Sarah Lyall, “On Irish Border, Worries T hat Brexit Will Undo a Hard-Won Peace,” Sarah Lyall, “On Irish Border, Worries T hat Brexit Will Undo a Hard-Won Peace,” New York Times, August 5, , August 5,
2017; Henry McDonald, “Police Chief Says ‘Hard Brexit’ Irish Border Would Be Paramilitary T arget,” 2017; Henry McDonald, “Police Chief Says ‘Hard Brexit’ Irish Border Would Be Paramilitary T arget,” Guardian, ,
February 7, 2018; Maeve Sheehan, “Irish Army Identifies 300 Border Crossing Points,” February 7, 2018; Maeve Sheehan, “Irish Army Identifies 300 Border Crossing Points,” Belfast Telegraph, December , December
17, 2018. 17, 2018.
5361 John Campbell, “Brexit: Does the Irish Peace Accord Rule Out a Hard Border?,” BBC News, January 30, 2019; T om John Campbell, “Brexit: Does the Irish Peace Accord Rule Out a Hard Border?,” BBC News, January 30, 2019; T om
McT ague, “Brexit’s Ulster Problem,” McT ague, “Brexit’s Ulster Problem,” Politico, June 12, 2019. , June 12, 2019.
5462 Department for Exiting the European Union, Department for Exiting the European Union, New Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, October 19, , October 19,
2019, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-withdrawal-agreement -and-political-declaration. 2019, at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-withdrawal-agreement -and-political-declaration.
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Concerns about a hard border developing on the island of Ireland mostly receded following the Concerns about a hard border developing on the island of Ireland mostly receded following the
UK Parliament’s approval of the withdrawal agreement and the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol. UK Parliament’s approval of the withdrawal agreement and the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol.
In December 2020, the Joint Committee of UK and EU officials reached an agreement on In December 2020, the Joint Committee of UK and EU officials reached an agreement on
implementing the protocol after the end of the transition period. Among other issues, the Joint implementing the protocol after the end of the transition period. Among other issues, the Joint
Committee agreed on a process for checks on animals and plants and rules for the supply of Committee agreed on a process for checks on animals and plants and rules for the supply of
medicines and food products entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK; the EU presence medicines and food products entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK; the EU presence
in Northern Ireland; export declaration requirements; and criteria for goods to be considered “not in Northern Ireland; export declaration requirements; and criteria for goods to be considered “not
at risk” of entering the EU (and thus not subject to tariffs).at risk” of entering the EU (and thus not subject to tariffs).5563 The UK government also withdrew The UK government also withdrew
controversial provisions in its draft Internal Market Bil (adopted in December 2020 as the United controversial provisions in its draft Internal Market Bil (adopted in December 2020 as the United
Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020) that would have al owed UK officials to override parts of the Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020) that would have al owed UK officials to override parts of the
Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol in the absence of a Joint Committee implementation agreement Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol in the absence of a Joint Committee implementation agreement
and UK-EU trade deal. and UK-EU trade deal.
Ongoing Tensions and Challenges
~~Many analysts assert that Brexit has further~~ Brexit has exacerbated political and societal divisions in exacerbated political and societal divisions in
Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland. ~~As noted previously, the DUP was the only main political party~~Even before Brexit, demographic trends in Northern in Northern
~~Ireland to support Brexit, but it opposed the Northern Ireland provisions in the renegotiated~~
~~withdrawal agreement because it viewed them as treating Northern Ireland differently from the~~
~~rest of the UK and undermining the union. Amid ongoing demographic, societal, and economic~~
~~changes in Northern Ireland that predate Brexit,~~Ireland (in which the population gap between Protestants and Catholics is narrowing) and changes in societal attitudes (especial y among young people, who may not be as wedded to traditional religious or ethnic identities) were causing some in the unionist community some in the unionist community to perceive a loss perceive a loss
in unionist traditions and dominancein unionist traditions and dominance ~~in Northern Ireland. Some experts suggest the~~. The new post- new post-
~~Brexit border and customs~~Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland arrangements for Northern Ireland ~~could enhance~~appear to be enhancing this sense of unionist this sense of unionist
disenfranchisement, disenfranchisement, ~~especial y if~~partly by raising fears that Northern Ireland Northern Ireland iswil be drawn closer to the Republic of Ireland’s drawn closer to the Republic of Ireland’s
~~economic orbit post-Brexit. Such unionist unease in turn could intensify frictions and political~~
~~instability in Northern Ireland and prompt a resurgence in loyalist violence post-Brexit.56~~economic orbit post-Brexit and that this could be a precursor to a united Ireland. As discussed above, unionist and loyalist unease with the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland contributed to the outbreak of violence and unrest in the region in early 2021.64
Meanwhile, long-standing nationalist doubts about the trustworthiness of the UK government Meanwhile, long-standing nationalist doubts about the trustworthiness of the UK government
were heightened by the controversy over the Internal Market Bil . Although many analysts were heightened by the controversy over the Internal Market Bil . Although many analysts
believe the subsequently withdrawn provisions in the bil largely were an attempt by the UK believe the subsequently withdrawn provisions in the bil largely were an attempt by the UK
government to gain leverage government to gain leverage ~~in the ongoing UK-EU~~ during the contentious UK-EU trade negotiations, trade negotiations, ~~some observers suggest~~
the incident further eroded trust within Northern Ireland, as wel as between the UK and Irish the incident further eroded trust within Northern Ireland, as wel as between the UK and Irish
governments. As the guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, cooperation between the UK and governments. As the guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement, cooperation between the UK and
Ireland is Ireland is deemed essential to the accord’s continued functioning and implementation.deemed essential to the accord’s continued functioning and implementation.5765
Since the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol took effect on January 1, 2021, Since the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol took effect on January 1, 2021, ~~the post-Brexit~~
~~arrangements for Northern Ireland have faced some chal enges. The protocol’s~~some chal enges have arisen in implementing the post-Brexit arrangements. The new customs and customs and
regulatory regulatory requirements on goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK have posed requirements on goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK have posed
trade and administrative difficulties for some businesses and consumers in Northern Ireland. Problems have included difficulties for some businesses and consumers in Northern Ireland. Problems have included
shipping delays and product shortages, especial y for Northern Ireland supermarkets shipping delays and product shortages, especial y for Northern Ireland supermarkets ~~dependent~~

55 63 T he UK-EU T rade and Cooperation Agreement concluded in December 2020 is expected to further reduce concerns T he UK-EU T rade and Cooperation Agreement concluded in December 2020 is expected to further reduce concerns
about “at risk” goods as the deal provides for tariff-free and quota-free merchandise trade between the UK and the EU about “at risk” goods as the deal provides for tariff-free and quota-free merchandise trade between the UK and the EU
(if rules of origin requirements are met). “ Brexit: UK and EU Reach Deal on Northern Ireland Border Checks,” BBC (if rules of origin requirements are met). “ Brexit: UK and EU Reach Deal on Northern Ireland Border Checks,” BBC
News, December 8, 2020; European Commission, “Questions and Answers: Joint Committee Formally Adopts a News, December 8, 2020; European Commission, “Questions and Answers: Joint Committee Formally Adopts a ~~Se t~~Set of of
Implementation Measures Related to the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement,” December 17, 2020. Implementation Measures Related to the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement,” December 17, 2020.
5664 Ceylan Yeginsu, “In Northern Ireland, Brexit Deal Is Seen as Betrayal,” Ceylan Yeginsu, “In Northern Ireland, Brexit Deal Is Seen as Betrayal,” New York Times, October 24, 2019; Dieter , October 24, 2019; Dieter
Reinisch, “After Brexit, Will Northern Ireland Return to Violence?,” Reinisch, “After Brexit, Will Northern Ireland Return to Violence?,” Washington Post, December 5, 2019, December 5, 2019; Simon Carswell, “Loyalists on Brexit: A One-Way Route to an Economic United Ireland,” Irish Times, January 30, 2020; Rory Carroll, “Northern Ireland Clashes Reflect Loyalists’ Fear of Marginalisation,” Guardian, April 5, 2021. 65.
57 Matthew O’T oole, “Of Course the Internal Market Bill T hreatens Northern Ireland,” Matthew O’T oole, “Of Course the Internal Market Bill T hreatens Northern Ireland,” Politico, September 23, 2020; , September 23, 2020;
Etain T annam and Mary C. Murphy, “T he Internal Market Bill May Further Erode T rust and Security in Etain T annam and Mary C. Murphy, “T he Internal Market Bill May Further Erode T rust and Security in
Ireland/Northern Ireland,” London School of Economics, September 24, 2020.Ireland/Northern Ireland,” London School of Economics, September 24, 2020.
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dependent on suppliers elsewhere in the UK (despite grace periods ranging from three months to a year for on suppliers elsewhere in the UK (despite grace periods ranging from three months to a year for
full implementation of the new rules).full implementation of the new rules).5866 In early February 2021, customs and regulatory checks at In early February 2021, customs and regulatory checks at
Northern Ireland ports were suspendedNorthern Ireland ports were suspended temporarily amid reported loyalist threats to port workers and EU amid reported loyalist threats to port workers and EU
officials. Northern Ireland police officials subsequently determined there were no credible threats, officials. Northern Ireland police officials subsequently determined there were no credible threats,
but the incident sparked a dispute between nationalists and unionists within but the incident sparked a dispute between nationalists and unionists within Northern Ireland’s Northern Ireland’s
devolved government.devolved government.5967
In addition, in late January 2021, renewed UK-EU tensions arose after the Ireland/Northern In addition, in late January 2021, renewed UK-EU tensions arose after the Ireland/Northern
Ireland protocol became entangled in EU efforts to control the export of COVID-19 vaccines Ireland protocol became entangled in EU efforts to control the export of COVID-19 vaccines
outside the bloc. The EU initial y outside the bloc. The EU initial y ~~announced it would~~planned to trigger Article 16 of the protocol—an trigger Article 16 of the protocol—an
emergency override mechanism available to either the UKemergency override mechanism available to either the UK or the EU—to prevent vaccines being or the EU—to prevent vaccines being
exported from Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK. Invoking Article 16 could have resulted in exported from Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK. Invoking Article 16 could have resulted in
border checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Although the EU almost immediatelyborder checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Although the EU almost immediately
reversed itself on invoking Article 16 amid a diplomatic outcry from UK, Irish, and Northern reversed itself on invoking Article 16 amid a diplomatic outcry from UK, Irish, and Northern
Ireland officials, the incident is widely viewed as cal ingIreland officials, the incident is widely viewed as cal ing into question Northern Ireland’s post-into question Northern Ireland’s post-
Brexit Brexit arrangements. The EU claimed that invoking Article 16 as part of the bloc ’s new vaccine arrangements. The EU claimed that invoking Article 16 as part of the bloc ’s new vaccine
export control regulation was a simple mistake made in haste, but this error has helped to bolster export control regulation was a simple mistake made in haste, but this error has helped to bolster
the ~~the~~ DUP’s claim that the protocol is “unworkable.”DUP’s claim that the protocol is “unworkable.”6068
The DUP and other unionists subsequently began urging the UK government to abandon the The DUP and other unionists subsequently began urging the UK government to abandon the
protocol by invoking Article 16protocol by invoking Article 16 itself. First Minister Foster asserted that the EU’s wil ingness to invoke . First Minister Foster asserted that the EU’s wil ingness to invoke
Article 16 had “lowered the bar” for the UK to do the same.Article 16 had “lowered the bar” for the UK to do the same.6169 Among other steps in an escalating Among other steps in an escalating
campaign against the protocol, the DUP and other unionists launched legal action to chal enge the campaign against the protocol, the DUP and other unionists launched legal action to chal enge the
protocol in judicialprotocol in judicial review proceedings. The DUP review proceedings. The DUP ~~intends to argue~~argues that the new customs and that the new customs and
regulatory arrangements for Northern Ireland violate the UK Act of Union, which guarantees regulatory arrangements for Northern Ireland violate the UK Act of Union, which guarantees
unfettered trade throughout the UK, and were imposed without the consent of the public (which it unfettered trade throughout the UK, and were imposed without the consent of the public (which it
claims also violates provisions in the Good Friday Agreement). In addition, DUP leaders claims also violates provisions in the Good Friday Agreement). In addition, DUP leaders ~~assert~~asserted
that they that they ~~wil~~ would not cooperate with the Irish government in implementing the protocolnot cooperate with the Irish government in implementing the protocol, and and ~~have~~
~~threatened to boycott~~some have boycotted meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council ~~and other meetings with~~
~~Irish officials in which the operation of the protocol is to be discussed.62~~.70
The UK government has The UK government has ~~appeared~~been reluctant to reluctant to ~~abandon the~~ discard the Northern Ireland protocol. UK officials have been protocol. UK officials have been
seeking to resolve operational problems with the EU and have cal ed for additional seeking to resolve operational problems with the EU and have cal ed for additional
implementation flexibilities, such as extending the grace periods that limit checks on agri-food implementation flexibilities, such as extending the grace periods that limit checks on agri-food
products, medicines, and other items until 2023. EU officials, however, have raised concerns products, medicines, and other items until 2023. EU officials, however, have raised concerns
about how the UK is implementingabout how the UK is implementing certain aspects of the protocol.71 66 Physical checks necessary to ensure customs compliance are now being conducted at ports or points of entry on the northeast coast of Northern Ireland upon arrival from the UK.~~certain aspects of the protocol; many observers doubt the EU~~
~~would be wil ing to agree to significant changes, including to the grace periods.63~~

58 Conor Macauley, “Problems in First Week of Post Conor Macauley, “Problems in First Week of Post -deal GB-NI T rade,” BBC News, January 6, 2021; Shawn -deal GB-NI T rade,” BBC News, January 6, 2021; Shawn
Pogatchnik, “Pogatchnik, “ Supermarket Pleas Mount as Brexit Leaves Northern Ireland Shelves Bare,” Supermarket Pleas Mount as Brexit Leaves Northern Ireland Shelves Bare,” Politico, January 13, 2021., January 13, 2021.
59 67 Shawn Pogatchnik, “Inspectors Pulled from Brexit Checks at Northern Ireland Ports over T hreats,” Shawn Pogatchnik, “Inspectors Pulled from Brexit Checks at Northern Ireland Ports over T hreats,” Politico, ,
February 2, 2021; Freya McClements, “ Brexit Checks to Resume at NI Ports Following T hreats,” February 2, 2021; Freya McClements, “ Brexit Checks to Resume at NI Ports Following T hreats,” Irish Tim es, February , February
9, 2021. 9, 2021.
6068 “Arlene Foster Urges PM to Replace ‘Unworkable’ NI Brexit Deal,” BBC News, January 30, “Arlene Foster Urges PM to Replace ‘Unworkable’ NI Brexit Deal,” BBC News, January 30, ~~2021.~~
612 021; David M. Herszenhorn and Jakob Hanke Vela, “EU Drops Irish Border Move in Plan to Curb Vaccine Exports,” Politico, January 30, 2021. 69 As quoted in Shawn Pogatchnik, “Brexit Protocol Row Adds Pressure to Northern Ireland Unionists,” As quoted in Shawn Pogatchnik, “Brexit Protocol Row Adds Pressure to Northern Ireland Unionists,” Politico, ,
February 4, 2021. February 4, 2021.
6270 “Brexit: DUP Vows to Send ‘Strong Message’ to Irish Government over NI Protocol,” BBC News, February 2, “Brexit: DUP Vows to Send ‘Strong Message’ to Irish Government over NI Protocol,” BBC News, February 2,
2021; Brian Hutton, “DUP Plans Legal Challenge to Northern Ireland Protocol,” 2021; Brian Hutton, “DUP Plans Legal Challenge to Northern Ireland Protocol,” Irish Times, February 21, 2021. , February 21, 2021.
6371 Lisa O’Carroll, Heather Stewart, and Daniel Boffey, “UK in ‘Constructive’ T alks with EU Over Northern Ireland Lisa O’Carroll, Heather Stewart, and Daniel Boffey, “UK in ‘Constructive’ T alks with EU Over Northern Ireland
Protocol,” Protocol,” Guardian, February 3, 2021; Denis Staunton and Naomi O’Leary, “UK and EU Appear to Harden Positions , February 3, 2021; Denis Staunton and Naomi O’Leary, “UK and EU Appear to Harden Positions
~~on Implementing Northern Ireland Protocol,” Irish Times, February 11, 2021.~~
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With the end of the first grace period approaching and with UK-EU talks over an extension With the end of the first grace period approaching and with UK-EU talks over an extension
largely stal ed, the UK government announced largely stal ed, the UK government announced in early March 2021 that it would unilateral y extend the first grace period, it would unilateral y extend the first grace period,
due to expire on April 1 (for parcels and certain agri-food products), for six months, until October due to expire on April 1 (for parcels and certain agri-food products), for six months, until October
~~1, 2021. EU officials claim this step would breach international law, would undermine trust, and~~
~~could have implications for the future ratification by the European Parliament of the December~~
~~2020 UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (which applies provisional y until the European~~
~~Parliament gives its formal approval). The difficulties with the protocol’s implementation and the~~
~~EU vaccine row have heightened tensions between the UK, EU, and Ireland and have exacerbated~~
~~frictions between unionist and nationalist parties in the devolved government.64~~
~~Economic Concerns~~
~~Many experts express~~1, 2021. The UK government also unilateral y relaxed EU restrictions on the movement of plants and used agricultural machinery into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.72 EU officials claimed these steps were in breach of international law and would undermine trust between the UK and the EU. The EU has launched a legal infringement process against the UK for breaching the provisions of the Northern Ireland protocol. The infringement process could ultimately lead to the UK’s referral to the European Court of Justice, potential fines, and/or the imposition of tariffs on imports of goods from the UK. Talks between the UK and the EU to resolve the trade difficulties resulting from the protocol are ongoing.73 The difficulties with the protocol’s implementation have heightened tensions between the UK, the EU, and Ireland. They also have increased frictions between the unionist and nationalist communities, as seen by the riots and violence in late March and early April 2021. UK officials express concern that growing unionist unhappiness with the post-Brexit arrangements could increasingly threaten stability in Northern Ireland. As noted above, in early March 2021, loyalist paramilitary groups withdrew support for the Good Friday Agreement temporarily due to concerns about the protocol and the effective customs border in the Irish Sea. Sinn Fein and other nationalists contend the UK government has reneged on commitments made in the Northern Ireland protocol and accused the UK government of pursuing a “reckless and partisan approach” to its implementation.74 Some analysts note that the DUP’s incoming new leader, Edwin Poots, is considered a hard-line opponent of the post-Brexit arrangements. As Northern Ireland agriculture minister, for example, Poots has resisted constructing permanent border control posts at Northern Ireland ports to check products arriving from the rest of the UK and refused to take part in North-South Ministerial Council meetings. In his bid for DUP leader, Poots pledged to intensify opposition to the Northern Ireland protocol. News reports suggest concern in both London and Brussels that Poots’s election as DUP leader could make UK-EU efforts to resolve problems with the protocol’s implementation more difficult. Other observers suggest that increased DUP action against the protocol could heighten tensions with Sinn Fein and could lead to the collapse of the devolved government and early Assembly elections.75 on Implementing Northern Ireland Protocol,” Irish Times, February 11, 2021. 72 Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis, Written Ministerial Statement to the UK House of Commons, March 3, 2021, at https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2021-03-03/hcws819. Also see Shawn Pogatchnik, “Soiled Deal: UK Defies EU Ban on British Dirt on Plants Shipped to Northern Ireland,” Politico, March 5, 2021. 73 European Commission, “ Withdrawal Agreement: Commission Sends Letter of Formal Notice to the United Kingdom for Breach of its Obligations Under the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland,” March 15, 2021; Padraic Halpin, “Ireland Confident of Solution for Post -Brexit Northern Ireland T rade,” Reuters, April 27, 2021; John Campbell, “Brexit: UK Proposes New Irish Sea Food Checks from October,” BBC News, May 17, 2021. 74 As quoted in Ali Gordon, “Boris Johnson Visits Northern Ireland amid Unionist T ension,” BBC News, March 12, 2021. Also see Guy Faulconbridge, “ Britain Says Unionist Anger over Brexit Deal Could Put Northern Ireland ‘in Quite a Dangerous Place,’” Reuters, March 19, 2021. 75 Shawn Pogatchnik and Emilio Casalicchio, “Arlene Foster to Quit as Norther Irish First Minister and DUP Leader,” Politico, April 28, 2021; “ Brexit: Edwin Poots T hreatens Legal Action Over NI Protocol,” BBC News, May 4, 2021; Rory Carroll, “Edwin Poots: DUP’s New Creationist Leader Is a Savvy Politician,” Guardian, May 14, 2021. Congressional Research Service 22 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests Economic Concerns Following the 2016 UK referendum, many experts expressed concern about Brexit’s possible ~~concern about Brexit’s possible~~ economic consequences for Northern economic consequences for Northern
Ireland. According to a UK parliamentary report, Northern Ireland depends more on the EU Ireland. According to a UK parliamentary report, Northern Ireland depends more on the EU
market (and especial y that of Ireland) for its exports than does the rest of the UK.market (and especial y that of Ireland) for its exports than does the rest of the UK.6576 In 2018, In 2018,
approximately 59% of Northern Ireland’s exports went to the EU, approximately 59% of Northern Ireland’s exports went to the EU, including 37% to Ireland, including 37% to Ireland,
which was Northern Ireland’s top single export and import partner.which was Northern Ireland’s top single export and import partner.6677
Significant fears existed in particular that a no-deal Brexit Significant fears existed in particular that a no-deal Brexit (that is, without a withdrawal agreement in place) would have jeopardized labor markets would have jeopardized labor markets
and industries that operate on an al -island basis. Many manufacturers in Northern Ireland and and industries that operate on an al -island basis. Many manufacturers in Northern Ireland and
Ireland depend on integrated supply chains north and south of the border. For example, raw Ireland depend on integrated supply chains north and south of the border. For example, raw
materials that go into making materials that go into making ~~products such as milk,~~ milk, cheese, butter, and alcoholic drinks often cheese, butter, and alcoholic drinks often
cross the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland several times for processing and cross the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland several times for processing and
packaging.packaging.6778 The vast majority of cross-border transactions are The vast majority of cross-border transactions are made by micro and smal made by micro and smal
businesses, which dominate businesses, which dominate ~~the~~ Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland’s economy. economy.6879
UK and DUP leaders maintained that the rest of the UK is overal more important economical y UK and DUP leaders maintained that the rest of the UK is overal more important economical y
to Northern Ireland than the EU given the value of exports. In 2018, sales to other parts of the UK to Northern Ireland than the EU given the value of exports. In 2018, sales to other parts of the UK
(£10.6 bil ion) were more than double the value of exports to Ireland (£4.2 bil ion) and roughly (£10.6 bil ion) were more than double the value of exports to Ireland (£4.2 bil ion) and roughly
four times the value of exports to the rest of the EU (£2.5 bil ion).four times the value of exports to the rest of the EU (£2.5 bil ion).6980 Among the DUP’s objections Among the DUP’s objections
to the renegotiated UK-EU withdrawal agreement, the DUP argued that the Northern Ireland to the renegotiated UK-EU withdrawal agreement, the DUP argued that the Northern Ireland
arrangements would be detrimental to the region’s economy, especial y to trade between Northern arrangements would be detrimental to the region’s economy, especial y to trade between Northern
Ireland and the rest of the UK. The DUP asserts that such concerns have proven correct given the Ireland and the rest of the UK. The DUP asserts that such concerns have proven correct given the
supply problems and shipping delays affecting Northern Ireland since the new post-Brexit supply problems and shipping delays affecting Northern Ireland since the new post-Brexit
customs and regulatory requirements took effect. customs and regulatory requirements took effect.70

~~64 “Pandora’s Box Opened over UK-EU Vaccine Row, Says Gove,” BBC News, February 8, 2021; Shawn Pogatchnik~~
~~and Matt Honeycombe-Foster, “ EU Says UK Risks Breaking Law with Solo Bid to Ease Northern Irish Checks,”~~
Politico Europe, March 3, 2021.
6581 UK officials maintain that the government is determined to safeguard Northern Ireland’s interests and “make a success of Brexit” for Northern Ireland.82 They insist that Brexit offers new economic opportunities for Northern Ireland outside the EU. Supporters of the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland argue the arrangements wil help to improve the region’s economic prospects. Northern Ireland remains part of the UK customs union and thus wil be able to participate in future UK trade deals, but it also retains privileged access to the EU single market. These provisions may help increase competitiveness of Northern Ireland firms and make the region a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.83 76 Report of the UK House of Lords European Union Committee, Report of the UK House of Lords European Union Committee, Brexit: UK-Irish Relations, December 2016. , December 2016.
6677 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Overview of Northern Ireland Trade, June 15, 2020. , June 15, 2020.
6778 Simon Marks, “Brexit Is (Maybe) the Ruin of Irish Whiskey,” Simon Marks, “Brexit Is (Maybe) the Ruin of Irish Whiskey,” Politico, March 3, 2017; Colm Kelpie, “Brexit: How , March 3, 2017; Colm Kelpie, “Brexit: How
Would No-Deal Affect Northern Ireland?,” BBC News, September 22, 2019. Would No-Deal Affect Northern Ireland?,” BBC News, September 22, 2019.
6879 Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Overview of Northern Ireland Trade, June 15, 2020. , June 15, 2020.
6980 Ibid. Ibid.
7081 John Campbell, “Brexit Deal Could Reduce Spending, Investment, and T rade in NI,” BBC News, October 22, 2019; John Campbell, “Brexit Deal Could Reduce Spending, Investment, and T rade in NI,” BBC News, October 22, 2019;
Peter Foster, Judith Evans, and Daniel T homas, “Brexit One Month On: What Has Changed?,” Peter Foster, Judith Evans, and Daniel T homas, “Brexit One Month On: What Has Changed?,” Financial Times, ,
January 31, 2021. January 31, 2021.
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~~UK officials maintain that the government is determined to safeguard Northern Ireland’s interests~~
~~and “make a success of Brexit” for Northern Ireland.71 They insist that Brexit offers new~~
~~economic opportunities for Northern Ireland outside the EU. Supporters of the post-Brexit~~
~~arrangements for Northern Ireland argue the arrangements wil help to improve the region’s~~
~~economic prospects. Northern Ireland wil remain part of the UK customs union and thus wil be~~
~~able to participate in future UK trade deals but also wil retain privileged access to the EU single~~
~~market, which may help increase competitiveness of Northern Ireland firms and make the region~~
~~a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.72~~82 UK Government Press Release, “Brokenshire Holds Inaugural Meeting of Northern Ireland Business Advisory Group,” September 1, 2016; Stephen Walker, “Brexit: Northern Ireland Can Be Success Outside EU,” BBC News, October 4, 2016. 83 Clodagh Rice, “Brexit: My NI Business Now Has the Best of Both Worlds,” BBC News, February 5, 2021; Sandra O’Connell, “Businesses Recognize North’s Unique T rading Status Despite Fears,” Irish Times, February 26, 2021. Congressional Research Service 23 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests
Constitutional Status and Border Poll Prospects
Brexit has revived questions about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Sinn Fein argues that Brexit has revived questions about Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Sinn Fein argues that
“Brexit changes everything” and could generate greater support for a united Ireland.“Brexit changes everything” and could generate greater support for a united Ireland.7384 Since the Since the
2016 Brexit referendum, Sinn Fein has repeatedly cal ed for a 2016 Brexit referendum, Sinn Fein has repeatedly cal ed for a border poll (a referendum on (a referendum on
whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK or join the Republic of Ireland) in the whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK or join the Republic of Ireland) in the
hopes of realizing its long-term goal of Irish unification. As noted previously, the Good Friday hopes of realizing its long-term goal of Irish unification. As noted previously, the Good Friday
Agreement provides for the possibility of a border poll in Northern Ireland, in line with the Agreement provides for the possibility of a border poll in Northern Ireland, in line with the
consent principle. consent principle.
Any decision to hold a border poll in Northern Ireland on its constitutional status rests with the Any decision to hold a border poll in Northern Ireland on its constitutional status rests with the
UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement, UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. In accordance with the Good Friday Agreement, ~~the~~
~~UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must cal a border poll~~a border poll must be cal ed if it “appears likely” if it “appears likely” that “a that “a
majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the
United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”7485 At present, experts believe At present, experts believe there is not sufficient evidence to convince the UK government to cal a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status ~~the conditions~~
~~required to hold a border poll in Northern Ireland do not exist~~. Most opinion polls indicate that a . Most opinion polls indicate that a
majority of people in Northern Ireland continue to support the region’s position as majority of people in Northern Ireland continue to support the region’s position as part of the part of the
~~UK.75~~UK. Although a January 2021 survey found that 51% of people in Northern Ireland would Although a January 2021 survey found that 51% of people in Northern Ireland would
support holding a border poll in the next five years (with 44% opposed and 5% having no support holding a border poll in the next five years (with 44% opposed and 5% having no
opinion), it also found that 47% favored Northern Ireland remaining in the UK versus 42% in opinion), it also found that 47% favored Northern Ireland remaining in the UK versus 42% in
~~support of a united Ireland.76~~
~~At the same time, some surveys suggest that views on Northern Ireland’s status may be shifting~~
~~and that a “damaging Brexit” in particular could increase support for a united Ireland. A~~
~~September 2019 survey found that 46% of those polled in Northern Ireland favored unification~~
~~with Ireland, versus 45% who preferred remaining part of the UK.77 Analysts note that Northern~~
~~Ireland’s changing demographics (in which the Catholic, largely Irish-identifying population is~~

~~71 UK Government Press Release, “Brokenshire Holds Inaugural Meeting of Northern Ireland Business Advisory~~
~~Group,” September 1, 2016. Also see Stephen Walker, “Brexit: Northern Ireland Can Be Success Outside EU,” BBC~~
~~News, October 4, 2016.~~
~~72 Arthur Beesley and Andy Bounds, “Business Checks on Irish Sea T rade Loom as Next Flashpoint,” Financial Times,~~
~~January 28, 2020; Clodagh Rice, “Brexit: My NI Business Now Has the Best of Both Worlds,” BBC News, February 5,~~
~~2021.~~
~~73 Sinn Fein Discussion Document, Towards a United Ireland, November 2016.~~
~~74 UK Government, Northern Ireland Act 1998.~~
~~75 Stephen Collins, “UK Election Shows a Border Poll Is Not a Priority,” Irish Times, December 20, 2019.~~
~~76 Gerry Moriarty, “Northern Ireland: Polls Can Provide More Confusion than Clarity,” Irish Times, September 5,~~
~~2020; Gerry Moriarty, “Poll Finds Majority Favours Holding a Border Poll in Next Five Years,” Irish Times, January~~
~~24, 2021.~~
~~77 Jonathan Bell, “Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland Could Sway Border Poll Result,” Belfast Telegraph, October 25,~~
~~2017; “Slight Majority for Unification in Northern Ireland – Poll,” Irish Times, September 11, 2019.~~
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~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

~~growing while the Protestant, British-identifying population is declining)—combined with the~~
~~post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland that could lead to enhanced economic ties with the~~
~~Republic of Ireland—could boost support for a united Ireland in the long term.78~~
~~Irish unification also would be subject to Ireland’s consent and approval. Some question the~~
~~current extent of public and political support in the Republic of Ireland for unification, given~~
~~potential economic costs and concerns that~~ support of a united Ireland. An April 2021 survey found similar results, with 49% of those polled in Northern Ireland supporting the region’s continued position within the UK versus 43% for a united Ireland.86 Prime Minister Johnson reportedly has asserted that there wil be no referendum on Northern Ireland’s status for “a very, very long time to come.”87 At the same time, experts note that several factors could boost support for a united Ireland and influence whether a border poll is cal ed in the years ahead. As discussed, Northern Ireland’s demographics are changing; many experts expect forthcoming census data wil show that Catholics equal or outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland. The post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland could lead to enhanced trade ties with the Republic of Ireland and greater economic integration (data from early 2021 indicate a significant increase in cross-border trade since the Northern Ireland protocol took effect). Analysts suggest that nonaligned voters who do not identify as unionist or nationalist may be the decisive swing bloc in any future border poll and that such voters are likely to be swayed on the question of Irish unification more by its implications for issues such as the economy, health care, and pensions than by identity politics. Unification also may appeal to those in Northern Ireland who opposed Brexit and wish to regain EU citizenship. In addition, should Sinn Fein win the largest number of seats in the next Assembly elections in Northern Ireland, this could increase pressure on the UK government to cal a border poll.88 84 Sinn Fein Discussion Document, Towards a United Ireland, November 2016. 85 UK Government, Northern Ireland Act 1998. 86 Gerry Moriarty, “Poll Finds Majority Favours Holding a Border Poll in Next Five Years,” Irish Times, January 24, 2021; BBC News, “NI 100: Majority Believe NI Will Leave UK Within 25 Years,” April 20, 2021. 87 As quoted in Brian Hutton, “Boris Johnson: No Border Poll for Very Long T ime to Come,” Irish Times, April 20, 2021. 88 T ony Barber, “Brexit Raises the Spectre of the UK’s Break-Up,” Financial Times, October 22, 2019; Alex Kane, “Unionists May Find Being Bounced into Border Poll Is Boris’s Preferred Op tion,” Irish Times, February 8, 2021; Peter Foster and Laura Noonan, “Brexit Ignites the Debate About a United Ireland,” Financial Times, April 6, 2021; John Campbell, “Cross-border T rade in Ireland ‘Has Increased Dramatically’ in 2021,” BBC News, April 15 , 2021. Congressional Research Service 24 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests Irish unification also would be subject to Ireland’s consent and approval. In Ireland’s February 2020 parliamentary election, Sinn Fein secured the largest percentage of the vote for the first time in Ireland’s history, and some commentators suggest the party’s electoral success has helped push the question of unification higher on the political agenda in the Republic of Ireland. Ireland’s three-party coalition government, consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, has launched a “Shared Island” initiative to promote cross-border dialogue and research on common chal enges and the future of the island but has adopted what many view as a “go slow” approach to the question of Irish unification. The Irish government maintains that voters, both north and south, must have a clear idea of what a united Ireland would look like—and how unionists would be accommodated political y—before any border poll is held.89 Some experts question the current extent of support in Ireland for unification, given concerns that unification could spark renewed loyalist violence in unification could spark renewed loyalist violence in
~~Northern Ireland. In Ireland’s February 2020 parliamentary election, however, Sinn Fein secured~~
~~the largest percentage of the vote for the first time in Ireland’s history. Sinn Fein’s election~~
~~platform included a pledge to begin examining and preparing for Irish unification, but housing,~~
~~health care, and economic policy issues dominated the Irish election. Sinn Fein appeared to~~
~~benefit mostly from the Irish electorate’s desire for domestic political change rather than from the~~
~~party’s stance on a united Ireland. Nevertheless, some commentators suggest Sinn Fein’s electoral~~
~~success in the Republic of Ireland could add momentum to cal s for a united Ireland.79~~Northern Ireland as wel as the potential economic costs. The UK provides Northern Ireland annual y with a roughly £10 bil ion (about $14 bil ion) budget subsidy to make up the shortfal in the region’s tax revenues. Although part of this subsidy helps to fund Northern Ireland’s share of the UK’s national debt and sizeable defense spending—costs that would not be incurred to the same extent by Dublin—Northern Ireland’s budget deficit points to concerns about the region’s economy and reliance on the public sector. An April 2021 poll found that 67% of people surveyed in Ireland would support unification, but 54% reported they would be unwilling to pay higher taxes to fund a united Ireland.90
U.S. Policy and Congressional Interests
Support for the Peace Process
Successive U.S. Administrations have viewed the Good Friday Agreement as the best framework Successive U.S. Administrations have viewed the Good Friday Agreement as the best framework
for a lasting peace in Northern Ireland. The Clinton Administration was instrumental in helping for a lasting peace in Northern Ireland. The Clinton Administration was instrumental in helping
the parties forge the agreement, and the George W. Bush Administration strongly backed its full the parties forge the agreement, and the George W. Bush Administration strongly backed its full
implementation. U.S. officials welcomed the end to the IRA’s armed campaign in 2005 and the implementation. U.S. officials welcomed the end to the IRA’s armed campaign in 2005 and the
restoration of the devolved government in 2007. restoration of the devolved government in 2007.
The Obama Administration remained engaged in the peace process. In October 2009, then-U.S. The Obama Administration remained engaged in the peace process. In October 2009, then-U.S.
Secretary of State Hil ary Clinton visited Northern Ireland, addressed the Assembly, and urged Secretary of State Hil ary Clinton visited Northern Ireland, addressed the Assembly, and urged
Northern Ireland’s leaders to reach an agreement on devolving policing and justice powers. In Northern Ireland’s leaders to reach an agreement on devolving policing and justice powers. In
February 2010, President Obama welcomed the resulting Hil sborough Agreement. In June 2013, February 2010, President Obama welcomed the resulting Hil sborough Agreement. In June 2013,
President Obama visited Northern Ireland and noted that the United States would always “stand President Obama visited Northern Ireland and noted that the United States would always “stand
by” Northern Ireland.by” Northern Ireland.8091 The Obama Administration welcomed the conclusion of both the The Obama Administration welcomed the conclusion of both the
December 2014 Stormont House Agreement and the November 2015 Fresh Start Agreement. December 2014 Stormont House Agreement and the November 2015 Fresh Start Agreement.
Like its predecessors, the Trump Administration offered support and encouragement to Northern Like its predecessors, the Trump Administration offered support and encouragement to Northern
Ireland. In November 2017, a U.S. State Department spokesperson expressed regret at the Ireland. In November 2017, a U.S. State Department spokesperson expressed regret at the
impasse in discussions to restore Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions and asserted that impasse in discussions to restore Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions and asserted that
~~the United States remained “ready to support efforts that ensure full implementation of the Good~~
~~Friday Agreement and subsequent follow-on cross-party agreements.”81 In March 2020, President~~
~~Trump appointed his former acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney as U.S. special envoy to~~

~~78 T ony Barber, “Brexit Raises the Spectre of the UK’s Break-Up,” Financial Times, October 22, 2019.~~
~~79 Naomi O’Leary, “In Brexit T alks, Belfast Loyalists See Risk of Return to Violence,” Politico, September 23, 2019;~~
89 Naomi O’Leary, “Sinn Fein Surge Makes Irish Political History,” Politico, February 9, 2020; Shawn Pogatchnik and Giovanna Coi, “Can Northern Ireland Survive Brexit?,” Politico, April 13, 2021. 90 Henry Farrell, “After Britain’s Elections, People Are T alking About a United Ireland. Don’t Hold Your Breath,” Henry Farrell, “After Britain’s Elections, People Are T alking About a United Ireland. Don’t Hold Your Breath,”
Washington Post, December 13, 2019; , December 13, 2019; ~~Pat Leahy and Vivienne Clark, “ UK Election: Varadkar Warns Against Move~~
~~T owards United Ireland, Irish Tim es, December 13, 2019; Naomi O’Leary, “ Sinn Fein Surge Makes Irish Political~~
~~History,” Politico, February 9, 2020.~~
~~80 As quoted in, “G8 Summit: U.S. Will Stand by Northern Ireland, Says Obama,” BBC News, June 17, 2013.~~
~~81 U.S. Department of State, Office of the Spokesperson, “Statement on Northern Ireland Power -Sharing T alks,”~~
~~November 1, 2017.~~
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~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

~~Northern Ireland.82~~ Fionnan Sheahan, “ Majority Favour a United Ireland, but Just 22pc Would Pay for It,” Irish Independent, May 1, 2021; Eoin Burke-Kennedy, “What Would Be the Economic Costs and Benefits of a United Ireland?,” Irish Times, May 7, 2021. 91 As quoted in BBC News, “G8 Summit: U.S. Will Stand by Northern Ireland, Says Obama,” June 17, 2013. Congressional Research Service 25 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests the United States remained “ready to support efforts that ensure full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement and subsequent follow-on cross-party agreements.”92 In March 2020, President Trump appointed his former acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney as U.S. special envoy to Northern Ireland.93 President Biden has close ties to Ireland and is a long-standing supporter of the Northern Ireland peace process. In March 2021, President Biden reiterated strong U.S. support for the Good Friday Agreement during annual St. Patrick’s Day meetings with officials from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. A joint U.S.-Irish statement asserted that the two governments are “unequivocal y committed” to the 1998 accord, which has served as “~~President Biden has close ties to Ireland and is a long-standing supporter of~~
~~the Good Friday Agreement; the White House press secretary recently described President~~
~~Biden’s support as “unequivocal” for the accord that “has been the bedrock of peace,~~ the bedrock of peace, stability, stability,
and prosperity and prosperity ~~for al the people of~~in Northern Ireland.” Northern Ireland.”8394
Many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace process for Many Members of Congress have actively supported the Northern Ireland peace process for
decades. Congressional~~decades. Over the last several years, congressional~~ hearings have focused on the implementation hearings have focused on the implementation
of the Good Friday Agreement, policing reforms, and human rights in Northern Ireland. Some of the Good Friday Agreement, policing reforms, and human rights in Northern Ireland. Some
Members have been interested in the status of public inquiries into several past murders in Members have been interested in the status of public inquiries into several past murders in
Northern Ireland in which collusion between the security forces and paramilitary groups is Northern Ireland in which collusion between the security forces and paramilitary groups is
suspected—including the 1989 slaying of Belfast attorney Patrick Finucane and the 1997 kil ingsuspected—including the 1989 slaying of Belfast attorney Patrick Finucane and the 1997 kil ing
~~of Raymond McCord, Jr.84~~ of Raymond Mc Cord, Jr. Most recently, on May 5, 2021, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber held a hearing titled “Reaffirming the Good Friday Agreement.” Some Members of Congress have urged President Biden to appoint a new special envoy to Northern Ireland to protect the gains of the peace process in light of recent tensions.95
On the economic front, the United States is a key trading partner and an important source of On the economic front, the United States is a key trading partner and an important source of
investment for Northern Ireland. According to statistics from the Northern Ireland Executive, in investment for Northern Ireland. According to statistics from the Northern Ireland Executive, in
2017, exports to the United States accounted for 17% of total Northern Ireland exports, and 2017, exports to the United States accounted for 17% of total Northern Ireland exports, and
imports from the United States accounted for 10% of total Northern Ireland imports. Foreign imports from the United States accounted for 10% of total Northern Ireland imports. Foreign
direct investment by U.S.-based companies totaled £1.8 bil ion (about $2.5 bil ion) between 2008 direct investment by U.S.-based companies totaled £1.8 bil ion (about $2.5 bil ion) between 2008
and 2018.and 2018.8596 Between 2009 and 2011, a special U.S. economic envoy to Northern Ireland worked Between 2009 and 2011, a special U.S. economic envoy to Northern Ireland worked
to further economic ties between the United States and Northern Ireland and to underpin the to further economic ties between the United States and Northern Ireland and to underpin the
peace process by promoting economic prosperity. peace process by promoting economic prosperity.
Views on Brexit and Northern Ireland
~~Former President Trump repeatedly expressed his support for Brexit and for a future U.S.-UK~~
~~free trade agreement post-Brexit. In a September 2019 visit to Ireland, Vice President Pence also~~
~~asserted that the United States recognizes the “unique chal enges” posed by the Irish border and~~
~~“wil continue to encourage the United Kingdom and Ireland to ensure that any Brexit respects~~
~~the Good Friday Agreement.”86 At the same time, Vice President Pence urged Ireland and the EU~~
~~to reach a Brexit withdrawal agreement that “respects the United Kingdom’s sovereignty,” which~~
~~many Irish commentators viewed as indicating a limited understanding of Brexit’s potential~~
~~implications for both Northern Ireland and Ireland.87~~
~~Since his time as Vice President in the Obama Administration, President Biden has maintained a~~
~~skeptical view of Brexit. During the 2020 election campaign, President~~In contrast to President Trump’s support for Brexit, President Biden has maintained a skeptical view of Brexit since his time as Vice President in the Obama Administration. During the 2020 U.S. presidential election campaign, then-candidate Biden stressed that Brexit Biden stressed that Brexit
must not undermine the Good Friday Agreement or jeopardize the open border between Northern must not undermine the Good Friday Agreement or jeopardize the open border between Northern
Ireland and Ireland. President Biden raised these concerns in a phone cal as President-elect with Ireland and Ireland. President Biden raised these concerns in a phone cal as President-elect with

~~82 Mulvaney resigned as special envoy in January 2021.~~
~~83 White House Press Briefing, March 4, 2021.~~
~~84 See, for example, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights,~~
~~and International Organizations, and Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging T hreats, “The Northern Ireland~~
~~Peace Process T oday: Attempting to Deal with the Past,” 113th Congress, March 11, 2014; Commission on Security~~
~~and Cooperation in Europe, “Northern Ireland: Stormont, Collusion, and the Finucane Inquiry,” 114 th Congress, March~~
~~18, 2015; Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, “ T he Good Friday Agreement at 20,” 115th Congress,~~
~~March 22, 2018.~~
85UK 92 U.S. Department of State, Office of the Spokesperson, “Statement on Northern Ireland Power -Sharing T alks,” November 1, 2017. 93 Mulvaney resigned as special envoy in January 2021. 94 White House, “ Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Martin of Ireland Before Vitual Bilateral Meeting,” March 17, 2021; White House, “ Joint Statement by President Joe Biden and T aoiseach Micheál Martin ,” March 17, 2021. 95 Suzanne Lynch, “US Politicians Urge Biden to Appoint Northern Ireland Envoy,” Irish Times, May 13, 2021. 96 Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Trade in Goods Data Analysis Northern Ireland – USA (2015-2017), ,
June 2018; Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, June 2018; Northern Ireland Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland Trade and Investm ent Patterns, October 2, , October 2,
2018. 2018.
~~86 Remarks by Vice President Pence and T aoiseach Varadkar of Ireland in Joint Press Statement, September 3, 2019.~~
~~87 Suzanne Lynch, “Pence’s Brexit Backing Catches Dublin Unawares,” Irish Times, September 3, 2019; Edward~~
~~Helmore, “Mike Pence Accused of Humiliating Hosts in Ireland,” The Guardian, September 5, 2019.~~
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Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

UK Prime Minister Johnson.Prime Minister Johnson.8897 It is unclear whether the Biden Administration wil continue with It is unclear whether the Biden Administration wil continue with
~~the U.S.-UK trade negotiations~~negotiations on a post-Brexit U.S.-UK free trade agreement begun by the Trump Administration, but some observers doubt the begun by the Trump Administration, but some observers doubt the
~~current~~Biden Administration wil prioritize a U.S.-UK trade deal amid Administration wil prioritize a U.S.-UK trade deal amid competing imperatives, competing imperatives,
~~including combating COVID-19 and promoting U.S. economic recovery.89~~
~~During the 116th Congress, some Members of Congress demonstrated an interest in how Brexit~~
~~might affect Northern Ireland and expressed continued support for the Good Friday Agreement.~~
including dealing with COVID-19 and economic recovery.98 The Biden Administration also has conveyed U.S. support for the Northern Ireland protocol.99 U.S. officials note that the Administration views the protocol as “a way to manage the practical chal enges around the EU single market while preventing a return of a hard border” on the island of Ireland. At the same time, Administration officials assert that the current difficulties in implementing the protocol are trade issues for the UK and the EU to resolve and that President Biden “is interested in having strong relations with both the UK and the EU.”100 In early May 2021, during a visit to London, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the UK and the EU “to prioritize political and economic stability in Northern Ireland” in implementing the post- Brexit arrangements for the region.101 Some Members of Congress also have demonstrated an interest in Brexit’s implications for Northern Ireland. Although many Members back, in principle, a future U.S.-UK free trade agreementAlthough many Members back, in principle, a future U.S.-UK free trade agreement ~~post-Brexit,~~
, some Members have tied their support to protecting the some Members have tied their support to protecting the ~~Northern Ireland~~ peace process. In April peace process. In April
2019, 2019, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ~~said~~stated there would be “no chance whatsoever” for a U.S.-UK there would be “no chance whatsoever” for a U.S.-UK
trade agreement if Brexit were to weaken the Northern Ireland peace process.trade agreement if Brexit were to weaken the Northern Ireland peace process.~~90 On October 22,~~
~~2019, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, Energy, and the~~
~~Environment held a hearing titled “Protecting the Good Friday Agreement from Brexit.” On~~
~~December 3,~~102 In December 2019, the House passed H.Res. 585, reaffirming support for the Good Friday 2019, the House passed H.Res. 585, reaffirming support for the Good Friday
Agreement in light of BrexitAgreement in light of Brexit and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade agreement and other and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade agreement and other
U.S.-UK bilateral agreements must include conditions to uphold the peace accord. U.S.-UK bilateral agreements must include conditions to uphold the peace accord. ~~Other~~
~~Members of Congress have not directly tied their support for a future bilateral U.S.-UK free trade~~
~~agreement to protecting Northern Ireland post-Brexit.91~~On May 17, 2021, the Senate passed S.Res. 117, expressing support for the Good Friday Agreement and the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol and asserting that any future U.S.-UK trade or other bilateral agreements must “take into account” whether obligations in the Good Friday Agreement are being met.
International Fund for Ireland
The United States has provided development aid to Northern Ireland primarily through the The United States has provided development aid to Northern Ireland primarily through the
International Fund for Ireland (IFI), which was created in 1986. The UK and Irish governments International Fund for Ireland (IFI), which was created in 1986. The UK and Irish governments
established the IFI based on objectives in the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, but the IFI is an established the IFI based on objectives in the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, but the IFI is an
independent entity. It supports economic regeneration and social development projects in areas independent entity. It supports economic regeneration and social development projects in areas
most affected by the conflict in Northern Ireland and in the border areas of the Republic of most affected by the conflict in Northern Ireland and in the border areas of the Republic of
Ireland; in doing so, the IFI has sought to foster dialogue and reconciliation. The United States Ireland; in doing so, the IFI has sought to foster dialogue and reconciliation. The United States
has contributed more than $540 mil ion since the IFI’s establishment, roughly half of total IFI has contributed more than $540 mil ion since the IFI’s establishment, roughly half of total IFI
funding. The EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have provided funding for the IFI as wel . funding. The EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have provided funding for the IFI as wel .
97 Patrick Wintour, “Biden and Pelosi Warn UK Over Risking Good Friday Agreement,” The Guardian, September 16, 2020; George Parker and Katrina Manson, “Joe Biden Warns Boris Johnson Not to Let Brexit Upend Northern Ireland Peace Process,” Financial Times, November 9, 2020. 98 Ryan Heath, “Britain Braces for Not -so-special Relationship with Biden,” Politico, December 31, 2020. 99 See, for example, the White House, “ Readout of Vice President Kamala Harris Meeting with First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill of Northern Ireland,” March 17, 2021. 100 White House, “ Background Press Call by Senior Administration Officials on President Biden’s Upcoming Virtual Bilateral with Ireland,” March 17, 2021. 101 U.S. Department of State, Secretary Antony J. Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab at a Joint Press Availability,” May 3, 2021. 102 Simon Carswell, “Pelosi Warns No US-UK T rade Deal if Belfast Agreement Weakened by Brexit,” Irish Times, April 15, 2019. Congressional Research Service 27 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests In the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. appropriations for the IFI averaged around $23 mil ion annual y; in In the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. appropriations for the IFI averaged around $23 mil ion annual y; in
the 2000s, U.S. appropriations averaged $18 mil ion each year. the 2000s, U.S. appropriations averaged $18 mil ion each year.92103
According to the IFI, the vast majority of projects it has supported with seed funding have been According to the IFI, the vast majority of projects it has supported with seed funding have been
located in disadvantaged areas that have suffered from high unemployment, a lack of facilities, located in disadvantaged areas that have suffered from high unemployment, a lack of facilities,
and little private sector investment. In its first two decades, IFI projects in Northern Ireland and and little private sector investment. In its first two decades, IFI projects in Northern Ireland and
the southern border counties focused on economic and business development and sectors such as the southern border counties focused on economic and business development and sectors such as
tourism, agriculture, and technology. In 2006, the IFI announced it would begin shifting its focus tourism, agriculture, and technology. In 2006, the IFI announced it would begin shifting its focus
toward projects aimed at promoting community reconciliation and overcoming past divisions. toward projects aimed at promoting community reconciliation and overcoming past divisions.
Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have backed the IFI as a means Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress have backed the IFI as a means
to promote economic development and encourage divided communities to work together. Support to promote economic development and encourage divided communities to work together. Support
~~for paramilitary and dissident groups in Northern Ireland traditional y has been strongest in~~

~~88 Patrick Wintour, “Biden and Pelosi Warn UK Over Risking Good Friday Agreement,” The Guardian, September 16,~~
~~2020; George Parker and Katrina Manson, “Joe Biden Warns Boris Johnson Not to Let Brexit Upend Northern Ireland~~
~~Peace Process,” Financial Times, November 9, 2020.~~
~~89 Ryan Heath, “Britain Braces for Not -so-special Relationship with Biden,” Politico, December 31, 2020.~~
~~90 Simon Carswell, “Pelosi Warns No US-UK T rade Deal if Belfast Agreement Weakened by Brexit,” Irish Times,~~
~~April 15, 2019.~~
~~91 Senator Chuck Grassley, Grassley Joins Colleagues in Letter Pledging to Back Britain After Brexit, August 6, 2019.~~
~~92 T he Anglo-Irish Agreement Support Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-415) authorizes U.S. contributions to the International~~
~~Fund for Ireland.~~
~~Congressional Research Service~~
24

~~Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests~~

for paramilitary and dissident groups in Northern Ireland traditional y has been strongest in communities with high levels of unemployment and economic deprivation. Thus, many observers communities with high levels of unemployment and economic deprivation. Thus, many observers
have long viewed the creation of jobs and economic opportunity as a key part of resolving the have long viewed the creation of jobs and economic opportunity as a key part of resolving the
conflict in Northern Ireland and have supported the IFI as part of the peace process. conflict in Northern Ireland and have supported the IFI as part of the peace process.
Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress also encouraged the IFI to place greater focus on Many U.S. officials and Members of Congress also encouraged the IFI to place greater focus on
reconciliation activities and were pleased with the IFI’s decision to do so in 2006. At the same reconciliation activities and were pleased with the IFI’s decision to do so in 2006. At the same
time, some critics have questioned the IFI’s effectiveness, viewing certain IFI projects as largely time, some critics have questioned the IFI’s effectiveness, viewing certain IFI projects as largely
wasteful and unlikely to bridge community divides in any significant way. wasteful and unlikely to bridge community divides in any significant way.
In FY2011, amid the U.S. economic and budget crisis, some Members of Congress began to cal In FY2011, amid the U.S. economic and budget crisis, some Members of Congress began to cal
for an end to U.S. funding for the IFI as part of a raft of budget-cutting measures. Some Members for an end to U.S. funding for the IFI as part of a raft of budget-cutting measures. Some Members
asserted that U.S. contributions to the IFI were no longer necessary given Ireland and Northern asserted that U.S. contributions to the IFI were no longer necessary given Ireland and Northern
Ireland’s improved political and economic situation (relative to what it was in the 1980s). In the Ireland’s improved political and economic situation (relative to what it was in the 1980s). In the
final FY2011 continuing budget resolution (P.L. 112-10), Congress did not specify an al ocation final FY2011 continuing budget resolution (P.L. 112-10), Congress did not specify an al ocation
for the IFI (and has not done so in successive fiscal years). for the IFI (and has not done so in successive fiscal years).
Since FY2011, however, the Obama and Trump Administrations Since FY2011, however, the Obama and Trump Administrations ~~have~~ continued to al ocate funds continued to al ocate funds
from Economic Support Fund (ESF) resources to the IFI in the form of a grant for specific IFI from Economic Support Fund (ESF) resources to the IFI in the form of a grant for specific IFI
activities to support peace and reconciliation programs. The United States provided $2.5 mil ion activities to support peace and reconciliation programs. The United States provided $2.5 mil ion
per year to the IFI from ESF funding between FY2011 and FY2014, and $750,000 per year since per year to the IFI from ESF funding between FY2011 and FY2014, and $750,000 per year since
FY2017. FY2017.

Author Information

Kristin Archick Kristin Archick

Specialist in European Affairs Specialist in European Affairs

103 T he Anglo-Irish Agreement Support Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-415) authorizes U.S. contributions to the International Fund for Ireland. Congressional Research Service 28 Northern Ireland: The Peace Process, Ongoing Challenges, and U.S. Interests

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