Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Changes from December 7, 2020 to January 12, 2021
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19
December 7, 2020January 12, 2021
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on pandemic has had a significant effect on
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United States. This States. This
report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest increases in
Jameson A. Carter
increases in unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Youngworkers, women, workers
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workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racialwith low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial and ethnic minorities had and ethnic minorities had
relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not all, al ,
Isaac A. Nicchitta
of these groups had relatively of these groups had relatively
high rates in high rates inNovember as wellDecember as wel . The report also compares . The report also compares the overall unemployment rate during
Isaac A. Nicchitta
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the overal unemployment rate during the current recession with the unemployment rate the current recession with the unemployment rate
experienced during the Great Recession. This experienced during the Great Recession. This
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report shows the following: report shows the following:
Emma C. Nyhof
Research Assistant The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since datacollection Research Assistant
collection started in 1948, in Aprilstarted in 1948, in April 2020 (14.2020 (14.78%) before declining to a %) before declining to a still-elevated level in
Novemberstil -
Paul D. Romero
elevated level in December (6.7%).
Research Assistant (6.7%).
Paul D. Romero
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment ratesgreater
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greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
In the early months of the recession, unemployment was concentrated in In the early months of the recession, unemployment was concentrated in industries that industries that
provide in-person services. Notably, the leisure and hospitality industry experienced an provide in-person services. Notably, the leisure and hospitality industry experienced an
unemployment rate of 39.3% in April, before declining to unemployment rate of 39.3% in April, before declining to15.0% in November. 16.7% in December. While rates for service While rates for service
industries remain elevated, other industries with loose attachment to inindustries remain elevated, other industries with loose attachment to in --person services are now person services are now
experiencing high rates. For example, the mining industry exhibited an unemployment rate of experiencing high rates. For example, the mining industry exhibited an unemployment rate of19.213.1% in December, the second % in
November, the highest observed among highest observed among all al industries. industries.
Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time counterparts in counterparts in
April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since effectively closed. April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since effectively closed.
Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% for workers for workers
with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). The gap between with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). The gap between
educated and less-educated workers remained in educated and less-educated workers remained inNovemberDecember. .
Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, 28.6%; 28.6%;
compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men and women has compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men and women has
since narrowed since narrowedoveralloveral , but young workers are , but young workers are still stil experiencing relativelyexperiencing relatively high rates of unemployment. high rates of unemployment.
Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in Aprilhigh unemployment rates in April (16.7% for Black (16.7% for Black workers
workers compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to 13.6% for non-compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to 13.6% for non-
Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted inNovemberDecember. .
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 1
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 2
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by State ..................................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by Industry ................................................................................ 5
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers.................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age .......................................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity ......................................... 8
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................ 10
Data Limitations and Caveats.......................................................................................... 10
COVID-19 -Related Data Issues ................................................................................. 11
General Data Caveats ............................................................................................... 12
Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 3
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates ..................................................................... 4
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry ............................................................ 6
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers ............................... 7
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ...................................................... 8
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group ..................................................... 9
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin ................................................. 9
Figure 9.Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education .................................................................... 10
Contacts
Author Information .......................................................................................................1213
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Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, theNovemberDecember rate rate
(6.7%) remains almost twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%). (6.7%) remains almost twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%).
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”), there were additional data chal enges ), there were additional data chal enges
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID-19 -Related Data Issues”). The pandemic led to ”). The pandemic led to
lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This
report general y finds the following: report general y finds the following:
The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in
1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in 1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level inNovemberDecember. .
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities. workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (sein prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively ). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief . Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief .
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s. 2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, 3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, 4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (8 percentage points from April to April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (8 percentage points from April to
NovemberDecember 2020) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid 2020) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid
declines, the declines, theNovemberDecember unemployment rate persisted at a high level (6.7%). The share of workers unemployment rate persisted at a high level (6.7%). The share of workers
on furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers on furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers
has steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March has steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March
2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that 2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that
elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7 elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Research.
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (sestart of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (see Figure 2). The ). The
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.78% in April, and then fel to 6.7% in % in April, and then fel to 6.7% in November. The
December. The peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9
5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the 5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID-19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data6 CRS analysis of BLS data. , which can be found at https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab11.htm. Workers on temporary layoff declined from 18Workers on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to million in April to 2.83 million in million in
NovemberDecember as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 4.73.3 million in million in November.
December. 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
88 T hroughout this report, T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and NovemberDecember 2020. 2020.
It does not account for months outside this range. It does not account for months outside this range.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest
overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.99 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patter ns since 2007, see CRS Report R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
major demographic group. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates major demographic group. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates
disproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic disproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic
groups are overrepresented in such industries, contributing to higher rates for those workers.10 groups are overrepresented in such industries, contributing to higher rates for those workers.10
Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January toOctoberNovember 2020 and 2020 and
indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from August to OctoberOctober to November. The data for . The data for November
December 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. Further, the figure 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. Further, the figure shows that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services 10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, June 2020. 11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper No. 27061, April 2020. Congressional Research Service 3 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Briefshows that no
9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report
R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn Institute, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of
Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, June 2020.
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state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the current
recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed levels
seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number of
factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services to in-person to in-person
customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14 consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates
Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January toOctoberNovember 2020 and change since last month 2020 and change since last month
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment
Statistics program. Statistics program.
11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than t he Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020.
12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. The data for December 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report.
The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In November, the five states with the highest unemployment rates were New Jersey (10.2%), Hawai (10.1%), Nevada (10.1%), New York (8.4%), and Louisiana (8.3%). The states with the lowest
12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenst ein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID-19 -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic 13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,”14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
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Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current
recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. The
data for November 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report.
The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In September,
the five states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (14.3%), Nevada (12.3%), New
York (9.6%), Louisiana (9.4%), and California (9.3%). The states with the lowest unemployment
unemployment rates in rates inOctoberNovember were Nebraska (3. were Nebraska (3.01%), Vermont (3.%), Vermont (3.21%), South Dakota (3.%), South Dakota (3.65%), %),
Iowa (3.6%), and Iowa (3.6%), and
Utah (4.1New Hampshire (3.8%). %).
Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the other industry; they also had thesecond highest unemployment rate in highest unemployment rate in NovemberDecember 2020 ( 2020 (15.016.7%). %).
However, elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to industries providing in-person However, elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to industries providing in-person
services. Workers whose last job was in the mining or extraction industry have experienced services. Workers whose last job was in the mining or extraction industry have experienced
steadily increasing unemployment since the onset of the recession; in steadily increasing unemployment since the onset of the recession; in NovemberDecember they exhibited they exhibited
the the second highest rate among alhighest rate among al workers across industries (workers across industries (19.213.1%). The lowest %). The lowest NovemberDecember rates were rates were
among workers whose last job was in the government (3.among workers whose last job was in the government (3.42%) or financial activities (3.%) or financial activities (3.51%) %)
industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below 15% from January through industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below 15% from January through
NovemberDecember.15 Within industries, some workers were more likely to lose their jobs than others. For .15 Within industries, some workers were more likely to lose their jobs than others. For
example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and hospitality industry and example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and hospitality industry and
other services industries experienced disproportionately large employment losses.16 other services industries experienced disproportionately large employment losses.16
Figure 4 displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change
from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and
2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to 2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to
determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This
report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-
year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current
recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers (before increasing as recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers (before increasing as
winter approached) and steadily increased for mining and extraction workers. However, the winter approached) and steadily increased for mining and extraction workers. However, the
changes in unemployment rates for agricultural workers are not considered statistical y significant changes in unemployment rates for agricultural workers are not considered statistical y significant
when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for mining and extraction workers are when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for mining and extraction workers are
statistical y significant. statistical y significant.
15 T he third lowest 15 T he third lowestNovemberDecember 2020 unemployment rate was in the education and health services sector ( 2020 unemployment rate was in the education and health services sector (3.74.1%). T hese %). T hese
data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within thedata are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the
education and health services sector. education and health services sector.
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,”16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, 17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates,f romfrom which they can which they can
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a yearcalculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Calculating these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Calculating
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current PopulationSurveySurv ey Estimates,” Washington, DC, Estimates,” Washington, DC,
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf. 2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.
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Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and
statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January to statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-
year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure
shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers. shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April).For the first time since the onset of the
pandemic,This disparity has closed as the recession has progressed, as the unemployment rate for part-time workers in the unemployment rate for part-time workers in November 2020 (5.9%) was less than
December 2020 (7.0%) roughly equals the unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.the unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.8%). Although part-time workers experienced
worse impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has effectively closed.
7%). There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the
economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have
narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether
that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y, that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y,
workers who normal y would be working full-time may be working part-time for economic workers who normal y would be working full-time may be working part-time for economic
reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed
that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are
part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18 part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen inAs seen in Figure 6, unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workersunemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers and were and were
higher for women early in the recession.higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
compared to older workers, the December rates for men and women across age groups have declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.5%) was lower than the rate for teenaged women (16.5%) in December. The rate for men ages 20-24 (12.1%) was slightly higher than the rate for women of the same age (10.1%). The large
18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total 18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total
unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a reasons, as apercent agepercentage of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. For more on of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. For more on
this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, Introduction to U.S. Econom y: Unem ployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
compared to older workers, the November rates for men and women across age groups have
declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.2%) was
higher than the rate for teenaged women (12.8%) in November. The rate for men ages 20-24
(11.7%) was slightly higher than the rate for women of the same age (9.3%). The large disparities disparities
observed in April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, observed in April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups,
although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male
counterparts. This relatively modest gap has since narrowed; the rate in counterparts. This relatively modest gap has since narrowed; the rate in NovemberDecember for women for women
ages 25 to 54 (5.8%) ages 25 to 54 (5.8%)was similar toequaled that of men ( that of men (6.3%), as was5.8%), and the rate for women ages 55 and the rate for women ages 55 and
over ( over (5.8%) compared to men (5.8%)6.1%) was very similar to that of men (5.9%) from the same age group. .
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen inAs seen in Figure 7, the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White19 workers increased the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White19 workers increased
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the
rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. TheNovemberDecember rates for Black rates for Black
(10.3
(9.9%), Asian (%), Asian (6.75.9%), and White (%), and White (5.96.0%) workers were al higher than their respective rates in %) workers were al higher than their respective rates in
February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 6.February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 6.59 percentage points since peaking in percentage points since peaking in
May, compared to a decline of May, compared to a decline of8.39.1 percentage points for Asian workers and 6. percentage points for Asian workers and 6.54 percentage points percentage points
for White workers across the same period. for White workers across the same period.
19 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian 19 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8, Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative
outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7 outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7
percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the
unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as
Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of8.3% in November9.2% in December, compared to , compared to 6% for
5.9%
for non-Hispanics. non-Hispanics.
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January toNovemberDecember, 2019 and 2020 , 2019 and 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers. is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
Congressional Research Service 9 link to page 13 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen iunemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9. .
The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020 The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The (21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. TheNovemberDecember rate for rate for
workers with less than a high school diploma (9workers with less than a high school diploma (9.8%) was also higher than the rate for al other %) was also higher than the rate for al other
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowestNovemberDecember
rate ( rate (4.23.8%) among al education levels. %) among al education levels.
Figure 9.Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January toNovemberDecember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates
using multiple data sources, including the CPS.20 using multiple data sources, including the CPS.20
20 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Congressional Research Service 10 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.21 Sampling Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.21 Sampling
error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.22 Sampling error is a non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.22 Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.23 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.23 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID-19 -Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.24 (The For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.24 (The
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates.25) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely rates.25) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.26 Specifical y, large numbers of workers underestimated unemployment early in the recession.26 Specifical y, large numbers of workers
were classified as were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October, in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October,and 0.4 in 0.4 in
NovemberNovember,
and 0.6 in December. These estimates evaluate what the impact would be in the worst-case scenario, as the . These estimates evaluate what the impact would be in the worst-case scenario, as the
true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these
assumptions probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”27 In later months, BLS assumptions probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”27 In later months, BLS
made efforts to correct this classification error during data collection and made efforts to correct this classification error during data collection and
processing.28 processing.28
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources
20 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims
counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown.29
21 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s 21 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm. 22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
23 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm. 23 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
24 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at 24 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
25 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm. 25 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
26 See CRS Insight IN11456, 26 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
27 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-27 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-novemberdecember-2020.htm#-2020.htm#ques4ques5. .
28 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey resp onses in August and marked those they felt could 28 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey resp onses in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
29 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. Congressional Research ServiceCongressional Research Service
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown.29
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS : Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.30 for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.30
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences. report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed. labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same : While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year : CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful. significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.
30 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. Congressional Research Service 12 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief Author Information
Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Jameson A. Carter Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.
29 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
30 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
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Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
R46554 R46554 · VERSION56 · UPDATED
13 13
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United States. This States. This
Jameson A. Carter
increases in unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young
Research Assistant Research Assistant
workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racialwith low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial
high rates in high rates in
Emma C. Nyhof
Research Assistant The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
In the early months of the recession, unemployment was concentrated in In the early months of the recession, unemployment was concentrated in industries that industries that
unemployment rate of 39.3% in April, before declining to unemployment rate of 39.3% in April, before declining to
industries remain elevated, other industries with loose attachment to inindustries remain elevated, other industries with loose attachment to in
experiencing high rates. For example, the mining industry exhibited an unemployment rate of experiencing high rates. For example, the mining industry exhibited an unemployment rate of
Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time counterparts in counterparts in
Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% for workers for workers
educated and less-educated workers remained in educated and less-educated workers remained in
Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, 28.6%; 28.6%;
since narrowed since narrowed
Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively
Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 1
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 2
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by State ..................................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by Industry ................................................................................ 5
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers.................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age .......................................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity ......................................... 8
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................ 10
Data Limitations and Caveats.......................................................................................... 10
COVID-19
General Data Caveats ............................................................................................... 12
Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 3
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates ..................................................................... 4
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry ............................................................ 6
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers ............................... 7
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ...................................................... 8
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group ..................................................... 9
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin ................................................. 9
Figure 9.
Contacts
Author Information .......................................................................................................
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
link to page 15 link to page 14 link to page 5 link to page 15 link to page 14 link to page 5 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the
(6.7%) remains almost twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%). (6.7%) remains almost twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%).
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”), there were additional data chal enges ), there were additional data chal enges
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID-19
lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This
report general y finds the following: report general y finds the following:
The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in
1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in 1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities. workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (sein prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively ). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief . Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief .
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s. 2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, 3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, 4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (8 percentage points from April to April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (8 percentage points from April to
declines, the declines, the
on furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers on furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers
has steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March has steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March
2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that 2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that
elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7 elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.
December. The peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9
5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the 5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID-19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data6 CRS analysis of BLS data
December. 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
88
It does not account for months outside this range. It does not account for months outside this range.
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
major demographic group. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates major demographic group. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates
disproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic disproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic
groups are overrepresented in such industries, contributing to higher rates for those workers.10 groups are overrepresented in such industries, contributing to higher rates for those workers.10
Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to
December 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. Further, the figure 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. Further, the figure shows that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services 10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, June 2020. 11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper No. 27061, April 2020. Congressional Research Service 3 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14 consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates
Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment
Statistics program. Statistics program.
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic 13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,”14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
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unemployment rates in rates in
Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the other industry; they also had the
However, elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to industries providing in-person However, elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to industries providing in-person
services. Workers whose last job was in the mining or extraction industry have experienced services. Workers whose last job was in the mining or extraction industry have experienced
the the second highest rate among alhighest rate among al
among workers whose last job was in the government (3.among workers whose last job was in the government (3.
industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below 15% from January through industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below 15% from January through
example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and hospitality industry and example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and hospitality industry and
other services industries experienced disproportionately large employment losses.16 other services industries experienced disproportionately large employment losses.16
Figure 4 displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change
2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to 2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to
determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This
report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-
year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current
recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers (before increasing as recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers (before increasing as
winter approached) and steadily increased for mining and extraction workers. However, the winter approached) and steadily increased for mining and extraction workers. However, the
changes in unemployment rates for agricultural workers are not considered statistical y significant changes in unemployment rates for agricultural workers are not considered statistical y significant
when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for mining and extraction workers are when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for mining and extraction workers are
statistical y significant. statistical y significant.
15 T he third lowest 15 T he third lowest
data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within thedata are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the
education and health services sector. education and health services sector.
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,”16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, 17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates,
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a yearcalculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Calculating these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Calculating
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf. 2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.
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Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and
statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January to statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January to
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-
year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure
shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers. shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April).
December 2020 (7.0%) roughly equals the unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.the unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.
7%). There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the
economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have
narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether
that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y, that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y,
reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed
that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are
part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18 part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen inAs seen in Figure 6, unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workersunemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers and were and were
higher for women early in the recession.higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
compared to older workers, the December rates for men and women across age groups have declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.5%) was lower than the rate for teenaged women (16.5%) in December. The rate for men ages 20-24 (12.1%) was slightly higher than the rate for women of the same age (10.1%). The large
18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total 18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total
unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a reasons, as a
this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, Introduction to U.S. Econom y: Unem ployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
observed in April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, observed in April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups,
although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male
ages 25 to 54 (5.8%) ages 25 to 54 (5.8%)
over ( over (
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen inAs seen in Figure 7, the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White19 workers increased the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White19 workers increased
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the
rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The
May, compared to a decline of May, compared to a decline of
for White workers across the same period. for White workers across the same period.
19 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian 19 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8, Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative
outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7 outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7
percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the
unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as
Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers. is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
Congressional Research Service 9 link to page 13 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen iunemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9. .
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The (21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The
workers with less than a high school diploma (9workers with less than a high school diploma (9.8%) was also higher than the rate for al other %) was also higher than the rate for al other
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest
rate ( rate (
Figure 9.
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the
using multiple data sources, including the CPS.20 using multiple data sources, including the CPS.20
20 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Congressional Research Service 10 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.21 Sampling Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.21 Sampling
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.22 Sampling error is a non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.22 Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.23 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.23 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.24 (The For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.24 (The
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates.25) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely rates.25) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.26 Specifical y, large numbers of workers underestimated unemployment early in the recession.26 Specifical y, large numbers of workers
were classified as were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October, in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, 0.3 in October,
true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these
assumptions probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”27 In later months, BLS assumptions probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”27 In later months, BLS
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm. 22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
23 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm. 23 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
24 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at 24 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
25 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm. 25 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
26 See CRS Insight IN11456, 26 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
27 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-27 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-
28 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey resp onses in August and marked those they felt could 28 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey resp onses in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
29 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. Congressional Research Service
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS : Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.30 for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.30
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences. report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed. labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same : While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year : CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful. significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.
30 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. Congressional Research Service 12 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief Author Information
Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Jameson A. Carter Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
R46554 R46554 · VERSION
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