Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Changes from November 6, 2020 to December 7, 2020
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19
November 6December 7, 2020 , 2020
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United States. This unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United States. This
report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest increases in report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest increases in
Jameson A. Carter
unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young workers, women, workers unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young workers, women, workers
Research Assistant Research Assistant
with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial and ethnic minorities had with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial and ethnic minorities had
relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not all, of these relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not all, of thesegrou psgroups had relatively had relatively
high rates in high rates inOctoberNovember as well. The report also compares the overall unemployment rate during as well. The report also compares the overall unemployment rate during the
Isaac A. Nicchitta
the current recession with the unemployment rate experienced during the Great Recession. This current recession with the unemployment rate experienced during the Great Recession. This
Research Assistant Research Assistant
report shows the following: report shows the following:
Emma C. Nyhof
The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data collection Research Assistant The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data collection Research Assistant
started in 1948, in April 2020 (14.7%) before declining to a still-elevated level in started in 1948, in April 2020 (14.7%) before declining to a still-elevated level in
October (6.9November (6.7%). %).
Paul D. Romero
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates greater In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates greater
Research Assistant Research Assistant
than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment isIn the early months of the recession, unemployment was concentrated in industries that concentrated in industries that
provide in-person services. Notably, provide in-person services. Notably,
the Leisure and Hospitalitythe leisure and hospitality industry experienced an unemployment rate of 39.3% in industry experienced an unemployment rate of 39.3% in
April, before declining to April, before declining to16.3% in October15.0% in November. While rates for service industries remain elevated, other industries with loose attachment to in -person services are now experiencing high rates. For example, the mining industry exhibited an unemployment rate of 19.2% in November, the highest observed among all industries. .
Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time counterparts in Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time counterparts in
April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since effectively closed. closed.
Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% for workers Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% for workers
with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). The gap between with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). The gap between
educated and less-educated workers remained in educated and less-educated workers remained inOctoberNovember. .
Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, 28.6%; Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, 28.6%;
compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men and women has compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men and women has
since narrowed overall, but young workers are still experiencing relatively high rates of unemployment. since narrowed overall, but young workers are still experiencing relatively high rates of unemployment.
Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April (16.7% for Black workers Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April (16.7% for Black workers
compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to 13.6% for non compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to 13.6% for non --
Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted inOctoberNovember. .
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 1
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 2
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by State ..................................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by Industry ................................................................................ 5
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers.................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age .......................................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity ......................................... 8
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................ 10
Data Limitations and Caveats.......................................................................................... 10
COVID-19 Related Data Issues ................................................................................. 11
General Data Caveats ............................................................................................... 12
Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 3
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates ..................................................................... 4
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry ............................................................ 6
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers ............................... 7
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ...................................................... 8
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group ..................................................... 9
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin ................................................. 9
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education ....................................................... 10
Contacts
Author Information ....................................................................................................... 12
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Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, theOctoberNovember rate rate
(6.7(6.9%)
%) remains almost twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%).remains almost twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%).
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”), there were additional data chal enges ), there were additional data chal enges
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID-19 Related Data Issues”). The pandemic led to ”). The pandemic led to
lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This
report general y finds the following: report general y finds the following:
The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in
1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in 1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level inOctoberNovember. .
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities. workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (sein prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively ). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief . Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief .
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s. 2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, 3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, 4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly ( April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (7.8 percentage points from April to 8 percentage points from April to
OctoberNovember 2020) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines, 2020) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines,
the Octoberthe November unemployment rate persisted at a high level (6. unemployment rate persisted at a high level (6.97%). The share of workers on %). The share of workers on
furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers has furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers has
steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March
2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that 2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that
elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7 elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (se start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (see Figure 2). The ). The
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to 6.2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to 6.97% in % in OctoberNovember. The . The
5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the 5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID-19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data. Workers on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to 6 CRS analysis of BLS data. Workers on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to3.22.8 million in million in October
November as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 4.as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 4.57 million in million in OctoberNovember. .
7 See CRS Insight IN11460, 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
8 T hroughout this report, 8 T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 andOctoberNovember 2020. It 2020. It
does not account for months outside this range. does not account for months outside this range.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest
overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9 overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
major demographic group. major demographic group. The data presented below track unemployment trends across these
groups. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates increased
disproportionatelydisproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic groups are groups are
overrepresented in such industries, contributing to overrepresented in such industries, contributing to notably higher rates for those workers.10 higher rates for those workers.10
Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January toSeptemberOctober 2020 and 2020 and
indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from August to indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from August toSeptemberOctober. The data for November 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. Further, the figure shows that no . Further, the figure
9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the 9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report
R45330, R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte. , by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” 10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn InstituteUpjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners:, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners:
Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBEREvidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, Working Paper No. 27309,
June 2020.June 2020.
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shows that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset
of the current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia of the current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia
surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a
number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services
to in-person customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal to in-person customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14 consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates
Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January toSeptemberOctober 2020 and change since last month 2020 and change since last month
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment
Statistics program. Statistics program.
11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than 11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse thanthet he Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID- Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., 19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020. No. 27061, April 2020.
12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19 12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic 13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,”14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
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Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current
recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance.
The data for November 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In September, The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In September,
the five states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (the five states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (15.114.3%), Nevada (12.%), Nevada (12.63%), New York (9.6%), Louisiana (9.4%), and California (9.3%),
California (11.0%), Rhode Island (10.5%), and Il inois (10.2%). The states with the lowest %). The states with the lowest
unemployment rates in unemployment rates inSeptemberOctober were Nebraska (3. were Nebraska (3.5%), South Dakota (4.1%), Vermont (4.2%),
North Dakota (4.4%), and Iowa (4.7%). The data for October 2020 have not been released as of
the cover date of this report.
0%), Vermont (3.2%), South Dakota (3.6%), Iowa (3.6%), and Utah (4.1%). Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the other industry; they also had the second highest unemployment rate in highest unemployment rate inOctoberNovember 2020 ( 2020 (16.3%). Workers
whose last job was in the mining industry15.0%). However, elevated unemployment rates are not constrained to industries providing in-person services. Workers whose last job was in the mining or extraction industry have experienced
steadily increasing unemployment since the onset of the recession; in November they exhibited exhibited the the second highest rate highest rate in October (13.8%).
The lowest Octoberamong al workers across industries (19.2%). The lowest November rates were among workers whose last job was in the government (3. rates were among workers whose last job was in the government (3.24%) or %) or
financial activities (3.financial activities (3.85%) industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below %) industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below
15% from January through 15% from January throughOctoberNovember.15 Within industries, some workers were more likely to lose .15 Within industries, some workers were more likely to lose
their jobs than others. For their jobs than others. For example, recent studies suggest that lowexample, recent studies suggest that low -wage workers in the leisure -wage workers in the leisure
and hospitality industry and and hospitality industry and other services industries experienced disproportionately large other services industries experienced disproportionately large
employment losses.16 employment losses.16
Figure 4 displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change
from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and
2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to 2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to
determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This
report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-
year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current
recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workersand steadily increased
for transportation(before increasing as winter approached) and steadily increased for mining and extraction workers. However, the workers. However, the declineschanges in unemployment rates for agricultural workers are not considered for agricultural workers are not considered
statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for
transportationmining and extraction workers are workers are
statistical y significant. statistical y significant.
15 T he third lowest 15 T he third lowestOctoberNovember 2020 unemployment rate was in the education and health services sector ( 2020 unemployment rate was in the education and health services sector (4.23.7%). T hese data %). T hese data
are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment withinth e the education and education and
health services sector. health services sector.
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,”16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, 17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates,fromf rom which they can which they can
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Calculat ingCalculating
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,” Washington, DC, Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,” Washington, DC,
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf. 2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.
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Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and
statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January to statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-
year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure
shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers. shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). For the first time since the onset of the in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). For the first time since the onset of the
pandemic, the unemployment rate for part-time workers in pandemic, the unemployment rate for part-time workers inOctoberNovember 2020 ( 2020 (6.75.9%) was less than the %) was less than the
unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.98%). Although part-time workers experienced %). Although part-time workers experienced worse
worse impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has effectively closed. impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has effectively closed.
There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y, workers who normal y would be working full-time may be working part-time for economic reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18 Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen inAs seen in Figure 6, unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workersunemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers and were and were
higher for women early in the recession.higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent age of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. For more on this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, Introduction to U.S. Econom y: Unem ployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. Congressional Research Service 7 link to page 12 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief compared to older workers, the Novembercompared to older workers, the October rates for men and women across age groups have rates for men and women across age groups have
declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.62%) was %) was
higher than the rate for teenaged women (12.higher than the rate for teenaged women (12.38%) in %) in OctoberNovember. The rate for men ages 20-24 . The rate for men ages 20-24
(11.(11.67%) was slightly higher than the rate for women of the same age (9.%) was slightly higher than the rate for women of the same age (9.93%). The large disparities %). The large disparities
observed in April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, observed in April between younger men and women were not observed in older age groups,
although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male
counterparts. This relatively modest gap has since counterparts. This relatively modest gap has sinceclosednarrowed; the rate in ; the rate in OctoberNovember for women ages 25 for women ages 25
to 54 (to 54 (6.35.8%) was similar to that of men (6.%) was similar to that of men (6.53%), as was the rate for women ages 55 and %), as was the rate for women ages 55 and over
(5.7
over (5.8%) compared to men (5.%) compared to men (5.2%).
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
8%).
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen As seeninin Figure 7, the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White18White19 workers increased workers increased
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the
rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The OctoberNovember rates for Black rates for Black
(10.(10.83%), Asian (%), Asian (7.66.7%), and White (%), and White (6.05.9%) workers were al higher than their respective rates in %) workers were al higher than their respective rates in
February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 6February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 6.5 percentage points since peaking in percentage points since peaking in
May, compared to a decline of May, compared to a decline of7.48.3 percentage points for Asian workers and 6. percentage points for Asian workers and 6.45 percentage points percentage points
for White workers across the same period. for White workers across the same period.
1819 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8, Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative
outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7 outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7
percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the
unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as improved, as
Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 8.Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 8.53% in % in OctoberNovember, compared to 6, compared to 6.2% for % for
non-Hispanics. non-Hispanics.
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January toOctoberNovember, 2019 and 2020 , 2019 and 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers. is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen iunemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9. .
The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020 The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The (21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. TheOctoberNovember rate for rate for
workers with less than a high school diploma (9workers with less than a high school diploma (9.8%) was also higher than the rate for al other %) was also higher than the rate for al other
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowestOctoberNovember
rate (4.2%) among al education levels. rate (4.2%) among al education levels.
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January toOctoberNovember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates
using multiple data sources, including the CPS. using multiple data sources, including the CPS.1920
Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.2021 Sampling Sampling
error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.2122 Sampling error is a Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.2223 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of Non-sampling error refers to al sources of
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID-19 Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.2324 (The (The
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates. rates.2425) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely ) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.underestimated unemployment early in the recession.2526 Specifical y, large numbers of workers Specifical y, large numbers of workers
were classified as were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September,and 0.3 in October0.3 in October, and 0.4 in
November. These . These
estimates evaluate what the impact would be in the worst-case scenario, as the true impact is estimates evaluate what the impact would be in the worst-case scenario, as the true impact is
uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions
probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”2627 In later months, BLS In later months, BLS
made efforts to made efforts to
correct this classification error during data collection and processing.correct this classification error during data collection and processing.2728
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources
1920 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims
counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
2021 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
2122 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm. For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
2223 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm. For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
2324 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by month at
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
2425 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm. See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
2526 See CRS Insight IN11456, See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
2627 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq- See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-octobernovember-2020.htm#ques4. -2020.htm#ques4.
2728 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responsesresp onses in August and marked those they felt could in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown. estimates is unknown.2829
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS : Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends. for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.2930
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences. report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed. labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same : While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year : CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful. significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.
Author Information
Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Jameson A. Carter Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.
2829 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid- For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. 19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
2930 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal- See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
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Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
R46554 R46554 · VERSION45 · UPDATED
13 13
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United States. This unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United States. This
report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest increases in report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest increases in
Jameson A. Carter
unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young workers, women, workers unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young workers, women, workers
Research Assistant Research Assistant
with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial and ethnic minorities had with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial and ethnic minorities had
relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not all, of these relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not all, of these
high rates in high rates in
Isaac A. Nicchitta
the current recession with the unemployment rate experienced during the Great Recession. This current recession with the unemployment rate experienced during the Great Recession. This
Research Assistant Research Assistant
report shows the following: report shows the following:
Emma C. Nyhof
The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data collection Research Assistant The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data collection Research Assistant
started in 1948, in April 2020 (14.7%) before declining to a still-elevated level in started in 1948, in April 2020 (14.7%) before declining to a still-elevated level in
Paul D. Romero
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates greater In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates greater
Research Assistant Research Assistant
than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
April, before declining to April, before declining to
Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time counterparts in Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time counterparts in
April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since effectively closed. closed.
Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% for workers Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% for workers
with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). The gap between with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). The gap between
educated and less-educated workers remained in educated and less-educated workers remained in
Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, 28.6%; Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, 28.6%;
compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men and women has compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men and women has
since narrowed overall, but young workers are still experiencing relatively high rates of unemployment. since narrowed overall, but young workers are still experiencing relatively high rates of unemployment.
Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April (16.7% for Black workers Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April (16.7% for Black workers
compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to 13.6% for non compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to 13.6% for non
Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in
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link to page 4 link to page 4 link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page 6 link to page 8 link to page 10 link to page 10 link to page 11 link to page 13 link to page 13 link to page 14 link to page 15 link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page 7 link to page 9 link to page 10 link to page 11 link to page 12 link to page 12 link to page 13 link to page 15 link to page 4 link to page 4 link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page 6 link to page 8 link to page 10 link to page 10 link to page 11 link to page 13 link to page 13 link to page 14 link to page 15 link to page 5 link to page 6 link to page 7 link to page 9 link to page 10 link to page 11 link to page 12 link to page 12 link to page 13 link to page 15 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 1
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 2
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by State ..................................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by Industry ................................................................................ 5
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers.................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age .......................................................................... 7
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity ......................................... 8
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................ 10
Data Limitations and Caveats.......................................................................................... 10
COVID-19 Related Data Issues ................................................................................. 11
General Data Caveats ............................................................................................... 12
Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 3
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates ..................................................................... 4
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry ............................................................ 6
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers ............................... 7
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ...................................................... 8
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group ..................................................... 9
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin ................................................. 9
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education ....................................................... 10
Contacts
Author Information ....................................................................................................... 12
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Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”), there were additional data chal enges ), there were additional data chal enges
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID-19 Related Data Issues”). The pandemic led to ”). The pandemic led to
lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This
report general y finds the following: report general y finds the following:
The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in The unemployment rate peaked at a level not seen since data collection started in
1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in 1948, in April 2020 before declining to a stil -high level in
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities. workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (sein prior recessions (see Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively ). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to exhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief . Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief .
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s. 2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, 3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, 4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly ( April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (
furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers has furlough has declined since peaking in April, while the share of permanently laid off workers has
steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March steadily increased and has now passed the number furloughed for the first time since March
2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that 2020.6 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that
elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7 elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (se start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (see Figure 2). The ). The
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to 6.2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to 6.
5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the 5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID-19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data. Workers on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to 6 CRS analysis of BLS data. Workers on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to
November as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 4.as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 4.
7 See CRS Insight IN11460, 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
8 T hroughout this report, 8 T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and
does not account for months outside this range. does not account for months outside this range.
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peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest
overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9 overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
disproportionatelydisproportionately increased in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic groups are groups are
Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to
indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from August to indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from August to
9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the 9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007, see CRS Report
R45330, R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte. , by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” 10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn InstituteUpjohn Institute
Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBEREvidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey,” NBER
June 2020.June 2020.
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of the current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia of the current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia
surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a surpassed levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a
number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services number of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services
to in-person customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal to in-person customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14 consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates
Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment
Statistics program. Statistics program.
11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than 11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., 19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020. No. 27061, April 2020.
12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19 12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic 13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,”14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
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Notes: The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current
recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance.
The data for November 2020 have not been released as of the cover date of this report. The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In September, The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In September,
the five states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (the five states with the highest unemployment rates were Hawai (
unemployment rates in unemployment rates in
0%), Vermont (3.2%), South Dakota (3.6%), Iowa (3.6%), and Utah (4.1%). Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the other industry; they also had the second highest unemployment rate in highest unemployment rate in
financial activities (3.financial activities (3.
15% from January through 15% from January through
their jobs than others. For their jobs than others. For example, recent studies suggest that lowexample, recent studies suggest that low
and hospitality industry and and hospitality industry and other services industries experienced disproportionately large other services industries experienced disproportionately large
Figure 4 displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change
from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and
2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to 2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to
determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This
report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-
year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current
recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers
statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for
15 T he third lowest 15 T he third lowest
are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within
health services sector. health services sector.
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,”16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, 17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates,
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,” Washington, DC, Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,” Washington, DC,
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf. 2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.
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Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and
statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January to statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences from January to
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-
year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure
shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers. shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). For the first time since the onset of the in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). For the first time since the onset of the
pandemic, the unemployment rate for part-time workers in pandemic, the unemployment rate for part-time workers in
unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.unemployment rate for full-time workers (6.
There are a few reasons why part-time workers’ apparent recovery since April may not reflect the economic realities they face. First, the gap between full- and part-time workers may have narrowed because workers with part-time jobs are leaving the labor force. It is unclear whether that is the case, though labor force participation rates have declined since March. Additional y, workers who normal y would be working full-time may be working part-time for economic reasons. This could reduce the unemployment rate among part-time workers. BLS has observed that during the current recession, measures of labor underutilization, including workers who are part-time due to economic reasons, have remained elevated.18 Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen inAs seen in Figure 6,
higher for women early in the recession.higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
18 See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm for U-6 unemployment rates, a measure of the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent age of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. For more on this measure, see CRS In Focus IF10443, Introduction to U.S. Econom y: Unem ployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. Congressional Research Service 7 link to page 12 Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief compared to older workers, the November
declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.declined to somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (15.
higher than the rate for teenaged women (12.higher than the rate for teenaged women (12.
(11.(11.
although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male although women ages 25-54 and 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male
counterparts. This relatively modest gap has since counterparts. This relatively modest gap has since
to 54 (to 54 (
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen As seen
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the
(10.(10.
February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 6February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined 6.5 percentage points since peaking in percentage points since peaking in
May, compared to a decline of May, compared to a decline of
for White workers across the same period. for White workers across the same period.
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8, Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative
outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7 outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7
percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the
unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as improved, as
Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 8.Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 8.
non-Hispanics. non-Hispanics.
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers. is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen iunemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9. .
The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020 The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The (21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The
workers with less than a high school diploma (9workers with less than a high school diploma (9
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest
rate (4.2%) among al education levels. rate (4.2%) among al education levels.
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the LAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the
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Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates
using multiple data sources, including the CPS. using multiple data sources, including the CPS.
Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.
error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID-19 Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates. rates.
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.underestimated unemployment early in the recession.
were classified as were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September, in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, 0.7 in August, 0.4 in September,
uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions uncertain. BLS released a statement regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions
probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”probably overstate the size of the misclassification error.”
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources
counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American counts, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
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that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown. estimates is unknown.
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS : Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends. for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences. report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed. labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same : While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year : CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful. significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.
Author Information
Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Jameson A. Carter Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. 19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
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Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
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