Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19
September 30October 2, 2020 , 2020
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant effect on pandemic has had a significant effect on
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United
States. This States. This
report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest report provides information on which groups have experienced the largest
increases in Jameson A. Carter
increases in unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young unemployment rates since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Young
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workers, women, workers workers, women, workers
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with low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racialwith low educational attainment, part-time workers, and racial
and ethnic minorities had and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but notal ,
Isaac A. Nicchitta
all, of these groups had relatively high rates in of these groups had relatively high rates in August as wel September as well. The report also compares the . The report also compares the
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overal unemployment rate during overall unemployment rate during
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the current recession with the unemployment rate the current recession with the unemployment rate
experienced during the Great Recession. This experienced during the Great Recession. This
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report shows the following: report shows the following:
Emma C. Nyhof
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The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data
collection collection Research Assistant
started in 1948, in April (14.7%) before declining to a started in 1948, in April (14.7%) before declining to a stil still-high level in September
(7.9%).
Paul D. Romero-high level
Paul D. Romero
in August (8.4%).
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In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater greater
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than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment is concentrated in industries that provide in-person services. Unemployment is concentrated in industries that provide in-person services.
Notably, Notably,
the Leisure and Hospitalitythe Leisure and Hospitality industry experienced an unemployment rate of 39.3% in industry experienced an unemployment rate of 39.3% in
April, before declining to April, before declining to21.3% in August19.0% in September. .
Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time
counterparts in counterparts in
April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since narrowed. April (24.5% vs. 12.9%), but this gap has since narrowed.
Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2%
for workers for workers
with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%). with no high school degree) than workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (8.4%).
The gap between educated and less-educated workers remained in The gap between educated and less-educated workers remained inAugustSeptember. .
Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men,
28.6%; 28.6%;
compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men compared with 13.7% for women and 12.1% for men ages 25-54. The gap between men
and women has since narrowed and women has since narrowedoveral overall, but young workers are , but young workers are stil still experiencing relativelyexperiencing relatively high high
rates of unemployment. rates of unemployment.
Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in Aprilhigh unemployment rates in April (16.7% for Black (16.7% for Black
workers
workers compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to compared to 14.2% for White workers, and 18.9% for Hispanic workers compared to
13.6% for non-Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in 13.6% for non-Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted inAugustSeptember. .
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 1
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 2
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by State .....................................................................................43
Unemployment Rates by Industry ................................................................................ 5
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers....................................................87
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ..........................................................................87
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity .........................................98
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................1110
Data Limitations and Caveats..........................................................................................1110
COVID-19 Related Data Issues .................................................................................1211
General Data Caveats ...............................................................................................1312
Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 3
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates: January 2020 to August 2020 ................................................ 5..................... 4
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry: January–August, 2019 and 2020 ......................................... 7................... 6
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers: January 2020 to August
2020 ................................ 7 Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ...................................................... 8 Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group ..................................................... 9 Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin ................................................. 9 Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education ....................................................... 10..................................... 8
Figure 6. Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age: January 2020 to August 2020......................... 9
Figure 7. Unemployment Rates by Racial Group: January 2020 to August 2020...................... 10
Figure 8. Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin: January–August, 2019 and 2020.............. 10
Figure 9. Unemployment Rates by Education: January 2020–August 2020............................. 11
Contacts
Author Information .......................................................................................................1312
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Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, theAugust rate (8.4%)
September rate
(7.9%) remains more than twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%). remains more than twice as high as the rate observed during February (3.5%).
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”)), there were additional data , there were additional data chal engeschallenges
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID-19 Related Data Issues”). The pandemic led to ”). The pandemic led to
lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This
report general y finds the following: report general y finds the following:
The unemployment rate peaked at The unemployment rate peaked atan unprecedenteda level level, not seen since data not seen since data
collection started in collection started in
1948, in April before declining to a stil -high level in 1948, in April before declining to a stil -high level in AugustSeptember. .
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities. workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (in prior recessions (seesee Figure 1). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively ). Rates observed during prior recessions rose relatively
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibitedexhibited an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to an unprecedented sharp increase in the rate (10.3 percentage points) from February to
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20briefExpansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief . .
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, 3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, 4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
April April 2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (6.2020.5 Following April, the rate declined rapidly (6.38 percentage points from April to percentage points from April to
AugustSeptember 2020) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines, 2020) as temporarily furloughed workers returned to work. Despite these rapid declines,
the Augustthe September unemployment rate persisted at a high level unemployment rate persisted at a high level (8.4 (7.9%). Although most of the unemployed %). Although most of the unemployed
in Augustin September were temporarily furloughed, the share of workers on furlough had declined since were temporarily furloughed, the share of workers on furlough had declined since
peaking in April while the share of permanently laid off workers had steadily increased.6 The peaking in April while the share of permanently laid off workers had steadily increased.6 The
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected thatelevated
elevated unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7 unemployment rates over 6% wil persist over the next three years.7
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 toAugustSeptember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data fromCreated by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) ( start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (seesee Figure 2). The ). The
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to 2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to8.4% in August7.9% in September. The . The
5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the 5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID -19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data. 6 CRS analysis of BLS data.T he number of workersWorkers on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to on temporary layoff declined from 18.1 million in April to 6.2
4.6 million in million inAugust September as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 3.as the number of permanent job losers increased from 2 million in April to 3.48 million in million in AugustSeptember. .
7 See CRS Insight IN11460, 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
8 T hroughout this report, 8 T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 andJulySeptember 2020. 2020. It
It does not account for months outside this range. does not account for months outside this range.
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peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest
overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9 overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 toAugustSeptember 2020 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
major demographic group. The data presented below track unemployment trends across these major demographic group. The data presented below track unemployment trends across these
groups. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates increased groups. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates increased
disproportionately in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic groups are disproportionately in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic groups are
overrepresented in such industries, contributing to notably higher rates for those workers.10 overrepresented in such industries, contributing to notably higher rates for those workers.10
Unemployment Rates by State Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to August 2020 and indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from July to August. Further, the figure shows
9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the 9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007 , see CRS Report , see CRS Report
R45330, R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte. , by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” 10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners:
Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey ,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey ,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309,
June 2020. June 2020.
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Unemployment Rates by State
Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to August 2020 and
indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from July to August. Further, the figure shows
that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the
current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed
levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number
of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services to in-of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services to in-
person customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal person customers,12 individual fears of contracting COVID-19 causing declines in personal
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14 consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to August 2020 and change since last month Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics program.
11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., 19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020. No. 27061, April 2020.
12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19 12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic 13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,”14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
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Figure 3. State Unemployment Rates: January 2020 to August 2020
Seasonal y adjusted data displaying rates for January to August and direction of change from July to August
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment
Statistics program.
Notes:Notes: September data have not yet been released as of this report’s publishing date. The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current The National Bureau of Economic Research identified February of 2020 as the first month of the current
recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance.
The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In August, the The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In August, the
five states with the highest unemployment rates were Nevada (13.2%), Rhode Island (12.8%), five states with the highest unemployment rates were Nevada (13.2%), Rhode Island (12.8%),
Hawai (12.5%), New York (12.5%), and California (11.4%). The states with the lowest Hawai (12.5%), New York (12.5%), and California (11.4%). The states with the lowest
unemployment rates in August were Nebraska (4%), Utah (4.1%), Idaho (4.2%), South Dakota unemployment rates in August were Nebraska (4%), Utah (4.1%), Idaho (4.2%), South Dakota
(4.8%), and Vermont (4.8%). (4.8%), and Vermont (4.8%).
September data have not yet been released at the state level. Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the highest unemployment rate in other industry; they also had the highest unemployment rate inAugustSeptember 2020 ( 2020 (21.319.0%). Workers %). Workers
whose last job was in the mining industry exhibited the second highest rate in whose last job was in the mining industry exhibited the second highest rate in August (12.4%).
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September (14.9%). The lowest The lowest AugustSeptember rates were among workers whose last job was in the rates were among workers whose last job was in the financial activities (4.2%)
or agriculture (5.6government
(4.1%) or financial activities (4.4%) industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below 15% %) industries. These two industries have had unemployment rates below 15%
from January through from January throughAugustSeptember.15 Within industries, some workers were more .15 Within industries, some workers were more likely likely to lose their to lose their
jobs than others. For example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and jobs than others. For example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and
hospitality industry and other services industries experienced disproportionately hospitality industry and other services industries experienced disproportionatelylarge
large employment losses.16 employment losses.16
Figure 4 displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change
from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and
2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to 2020 because of a lack of seasonal y adjusted data. Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to
determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This
report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-
year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current
recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers and steadily increased recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers and steadily increased
for transportation workers. However, the declines for agricultural workers are not considered for transportation workers. However, the declines for agricultural workers are not considered
statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for
transportation workers are statistical y significant. transportation workers are statistical y significant.
15 T 15 T he third lowest September 2020 unemployment rate was in the agriculture sector (5.0%). T hese data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the hese data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the
agriculture sector. T he third lowest July 2020 unemployment rate was in the business services sector (7.6%)agriculture sector. .
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,”16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, from which they can 17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, from which they can
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Laborthese formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “ Calculating Statistics, “ Calculating
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates, ” Washington, DC, ” Washington, DC,
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf. 2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry: January–August, 2019 and 2020
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences
from January to September 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-
year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure
shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers. shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). Part-time workers also had a higher in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). Part-time workers also had a higher
unemployment rate in unemployment rate inAugustSeptember 2020 ( 2020 (98.4%) than full-time workers (%) than full-time workers (8.37.8%). Although part-time %). Although part-time
workers experienced worse impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has workers experienced worse impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has
narrowed substantial y. narrowed substantial y.
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers: January 2020 to
August 2020
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. .
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen As seeninin Figure 6, unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers unemployment rates tended to increase more for younger workers and were and were
higher for women early in the recession.higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
compared to older workers, the compared to older workers, theAugustSeptember rates for men and women across age groups have declined rates for men and women across age groups have declined
toto somewhat similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (17 similar levels. The unemployment rate for teenaged men (17.6%) was higher than the rate for %) was higher than the rate for
teenaged women (14.teenaged women (14.79%) in %) in AugustSeptember. The rate for men ages 20-24 (. The rate for men ages 20-24 (14.212.8%) was slightly higher %) was slightly higher
than the rate for women of the same age (than the rate for women of the same age (14.012.2%). The large disparities %). The large disparities
observed in April between observed in April between
younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, although women ages 25-54 and younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, although women ages 25-54 and
55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male counterparts. This relatively 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male counterparts. This relatively
modest gap has since narrowed; the rate in modest gap has since narrowed; the rate inAugustSeptember for women ages 25 to 54 (7. for women ages 25 to 54 (7.74%) was similar to %) was similar to
that of men (7that of men (7.4%), as was the rate for women ages 55 and over %), as was the rate for women ages 55 and over (8
(7.2%) compared to men (%) compared to men (76.3%). .3%).
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Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age: January 2020 to August 2020
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data.
. Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen As seeninin Figure 7, the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White18 workers increased the unemployment rates for Black, Asian, and White18 workers increased
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the
rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. TheAugustSeptember rates for Black rates for Black
((13.012.1%), Asian (%), Asian (10.78.9%), and White (7.%), and White (7.30%) workers were al higher than their respective rates in %) workers were al higher than their respective rates in
February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined3.84.6 percentage points since peaking in percentage points since peaking in
May, compared to a decline of May, compared to a decline of4.35.6 percentage points for Asian workers and percentage points for Asian workers and 5.17.2 percentage points percentage points
for White workers across the same period. for White workers across the same period.
18 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian 18 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group: January 2020 to August 2020
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8, Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative Hispanic workers, like Black and Asian workers, have experienced strong negative
outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7 outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7
percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the
unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as
Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 10Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 10.5% in % in AugustSeptember, compared to , compared to 8.17.2% for % for
non-Hispanics. non-Hispanics.
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin: January–August, 2019 and 2020
Non-seasonal y adjusted monthly data
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, January to September, 2019 and 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers. is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen iunemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9. .
The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020 The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The (21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. TheAugustSeptember rate for rate for
workers with less than a high school diploma (workers with less than a high school diploma (1210.6%) was also higher than the rate for al other .6%) was also higher than the rate for al other
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowestAugustSeptember
rate ( rate (5.34.8%) among al education levels. %) among al education levels.
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education: January 2020–August 2020
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data.
. Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUSLAUS program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the program. The CPS is a sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the
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Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates is a BLS program that calculates state-level unemployment rates
using multiple data sources, including the CPS.19 using multiple data sources, including the CPS.19
Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.20 Sampling Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.20 Sampling
error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.21 Sampling error is a non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.21 Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.22 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.22 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID-19 Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.23 (The For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.23 (The
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates.24) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely rates.24) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.25 Specifical y, large numbers of workers underestimated unemployment early in the recession.25 Specifical y, large numbers of workers
were classified as were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July,and 0.7 in August0.7 in August, and 0.4 in September. These estimates evaluate . These estimates evaluate
what the impact what the impact
would be in the worst-case scenario, as the true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement would be in the worst-case scenario, as the true impact is uncertain. BLS released a statement
regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the
misclassification error.”26 In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this misclassification error.”26 In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this classification error classification error
during data collection and processing.27 during data collection and processing.27
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources
19 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims 19 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims
counts, the Quarterly Census of counts, the Quarterly Census ofEmploymen tEmployment and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American and Wages program, and data from the Census Bureau’s American
Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
20 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s 20 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
21 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm. 21 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm. 22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
23 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by 23 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection bymonthmont h at at
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
24 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm. 24 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
25 See CRS Insight IN11456, 25 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
26 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-26 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-julyseptember-2020.htm#ques8. -2020.htm#ques8.
27 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responses in August and marked those they felt could 27 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responses in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
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that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown.28 estimates is unknown.28
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS : Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.29 for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.29
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences. report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed. labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same : While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year : CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.
Author Information
Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Jameson A. Carter Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist inand writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. Questions from Social Policy. Questions from
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.
28 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-28 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. 19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
29 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-29 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
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Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan
shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and
under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should n ot be relied upon for purposes other
than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in
connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not
subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in
its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or
material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to
copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
R46554 R46554 · VERSION1 · NEW
142 · UPDATED
13
Pandemic: In Brief
Gene Falk, Coordinator
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United unemployment in every state, industry, and major demographic group in the United
increases in Jameson A. Carter
and ethnic minorities had and ethnic minorities had relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not relatively high unemployment rates in April. Many, but not
Emma C. Nyhof
The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data The unemployment rate peaked at an unprecedented level, not seen since data
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
Unemployment is concentrated in industries that provide in-person services. Unemployment is concentrated in industries that provide in-person services.
April, before declining to April, before declining to
Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time Part-time workers experienced an unemployment rate almost twice that of their full-time
Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2% Workers without a college degree experienced worse unemployment rates in April (e.g., 21.2%
The gap between educated and less-educated workers remained in The gap between educated and less-educated workers remained in
Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men, Teenaged women experienced an unemployment rate of 36.6% in April, and teenaged men,
and women has since narrowed and women has since narrowed
rates of unemployment. rates of unemployment.
Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively Racial and ethnic minorities had relatively
workers
13.6% for non-Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in 13.6% for non-Hispanic workers), and these gaps persisted in
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends ....................................................................... 1
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession ......................................... 2
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends..................................................................... 3
Unemployment Rates by State .....................................................................................
Unemployment Rates by Industry ................................................................................ 5
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers....................................................
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age ..........................................................................
Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity .........................................
Unemployment Rates by Education ............................................................................
Data Limitations and Caveats..........................................................................................
COVID-19 Related Data Issues .................................................................................
General Data Caveats ...............................................................................................
Figures
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 3
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates
Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
Contacts
Author Information .......................................................................................................
Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service
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Introduction
The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the start of the current economic downturn
in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This in February 2020, marking the end of the longest period of expansion in U.S. history.1 This
expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely expansion followed the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), a downturn widely
considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The considered to be the worst since the Great Depression (August 1929 to March 1933).2 The
unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its unemployment rate rose quickly in March 2020, and by April 2020 it had greatly surpassed its
previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment previous peaks observed during and just after the Great Recession. This spike in unemployment
coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the coincided with various mandated stay-at-home orders implemented in response to the
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and other pandemic-related factors affecting
U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the U.S. demand.3 Although unemployment rates have declined since April, the
This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using This report discusses recent unemployment rate patterns at the national and state levels using
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. The two primary sources are the Current Population
Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the Survey (CPS) and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. In addition to the
usual caveats about estimates (see usual caveats about estimates (see “General Data Caveats”
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see “COVID-19 Related Data Issues”). The pandemic led to ”). The pandemic led to
lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their lower survey response rates by businesses and households, and BLS detected an error in their
categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This categorization procedures that likely underestimated unemployment early in the recession.4 This
report general y finds the following: report general y finds the following:
The unemployment rate peaked at The unemployment rate peaked at
In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates In April, every state and the District of Columbia reached unemployment rates
greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession. greater than their highest unemployment rates during the Great Recession.
Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who Unemployment during the current recession is concentrated among workers who
were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among were last employed in industries that provide in-person services and among
young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time young workers, women, workers with low educational attainment, part-time
workers, and racial and ethnic minorities. workers, and racial and ethnic minorities.
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Historical Trends
Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current Prior recessions typical y developed with gradual y increasing economic distress. The current
recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to recession was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which was an abrupt and exogenous shock to
the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown the economy. The pandemic resulted in limiting contact among individuals and in many shutdown
orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those orders. Therefore, the trends in the unemployment rate in the current recession differ from those
in prior recessions (in prior recessions (
gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession gradual y over the course of an economic downturn and then peaked. The current recession
exhibitedexhibited
1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of 1 T he National Bureau of Economic Research; see https://www.nber.org/cycles.html for their historical series of
expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see expansions and contractions. For more on their process for determining expansions and contractions, see
https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html#:~:text=
What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=What%20is%20an%20expansion%3F,more%20than%20a%20few%20months.& text=
Expansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20briefExpansion%20is%20the%20normal%20state,economy%3B%20most%20recessions%20are%20brief
2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.2 T he unemployment rates observed during the Great Recession, however, never surpassed those of the early 1980’s.
3 See CRS Insight IN11388, 3 See CRS Insight IN11388, COVID-19: U.S. Economic Effects, by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte. , by Rena S. Miller and Marc Labonte.
4 See CRS Insight IN11456, 4 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
April April
peaking in April while the share of permanently laid off workers had steadily increased.6 The peaking in April while the share of permanently laid off workers had steadily increased.6 The
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have projected that
Figure 1. Historical Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from January 1948 to
Source: Created by CRS using data fromCreated by CRS using data from
Notes: Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Shaded regions indicate recessionary periods as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Comparing the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession
During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate increased from 5% in December 2007 (the
start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) ( start of the recession) to 9.5% in June 2009 (the end of the recession) (
unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, four months after the recession official y
concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February concluded. In the current recession, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in February
2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to 2020 to 4.4% in March 2020, peaked8 at 14.7% in April, and then fel to
5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the 5 For information on the differences between the congressional response to the current recession compared to the
congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472, congressional response during the Great Recession in the Unemployment Insurance system, see CRS Report R46472,
Com paring the Congressional Response to the Great Recession and the COVID -19-Related Recession: Unem ploym ent
Insurance (UI) Provisions, by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker. , by Katelin P. Isaacs and Julie M. Whittaker.
6 CRS analysis of BLS data. 6 CRS analysis of BLS data.
4.6 million in million in
7 See CRS Insight IN11460, 7 See CRS Insight IN11460, COVID-19: How Quickly Will Unemployment Recover?, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
8 T hroughout this report, 8 T hroughout this report, peak refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and refers to the highest level of unemployment between January 2020 and
It does not account for months outside this range. does not account for months outside this range.
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peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest peak represents the quickest month-over-month increase in unemployment rates and the highest
overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9 overal unemployment rate since the CPS data started being collected in 1948.9
Figure 2. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to Seasonal y adjusted monthly data from November 2004 to
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
COVID-19 Recession: Unemployment Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the unemployment rates for every state, industry, and
major demographic group. The data presented below track unemployment trends across these major demographic group. The data presented below track unemployment trends across these
groups. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates increased groups. In the early stages of the current recession, unemployment rates increased
disproportionately in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic groups are disproportionately in industries delivering in-person services. Some demographic groups are
overrepresented in such industries, contributing to notably higher rates for those workers.10 overrepresented in such industries, contributing to notably higher rates for those workers.10
Unemployment Rates by State Figure 3 displays state-level monthly unemployment rates from January to August 2020 and indicates whether the rate increased or decreased from July to August. Further, the figure shows
9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the 9 T here are many differences in labor force statistics observed during the Great Recession, its aftermath, and the
COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007COVID-19 recession. For more on this and for information on labor market patterns since 2007
R45330, R45330, Labor Market Patterns Since 2007, by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte. , by Sarah A. Donovan and Marc Labonte.
10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,” 10 Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic,”
Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020; and Robert Fairlie, “ T he Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners:
Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey ,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309, Evidence of Early-Stage Losses from the April 2020 Current Population Survey ,” NBER Working Paper No. 27309,
June 2020. June 2020.
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that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the that no state was immune from economic damage early in the pandemic.11 Since the onset of the
current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed current recession, the unemployment rate for every state and the District of Columbia surpassed
levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number levels seen during the Great Recession. The variation in economic damage was due to a number
of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services to in-of factors, including the proportion of jobs in sectors that provide non-essential services to in-
consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14 consumption,13 and the implementation of stay-at-home orders and business closure policies.14
Figure 3. Monthly State Unemployment Rates Seasonal y adjusted data, displaying rates from January to August 2020 and change since last month Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics program.
11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-11 Felipe Lozano-Rojas et al., “Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-
19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al., 19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S.,” NBER Working Paper No. 27127, May 2020; Eliza Forsythe et al.,
“Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper “Labor Demand in the T ime of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims,” NBER Working Paper
No. 27061, April 2020. No. 27061, April 2020.
12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19 12 Matthew Dey and Mark Loewenstein, “How many workers are employed in sectors directly affected by COVID -19
shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” shutdowns, where do they work, and how much do they earn?” Monthly Labor Review, April 2020. , April 2020.
13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic 13 Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson, “Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic
decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432decline 2020,” NBER Working Paper No. 27432, June 2020. June 2020.
14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,”14 Sumedha Gupta et al., “Effects of Social Distancing Policy on Labor Market Outcomes,” NBER Working Paper No. NBER Working Paper No.
2780, May 2020. 2780, May 2020.
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recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance. recession. The month-over-month changes are point estimates and have not been tested for significance.
The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In August, the The unemployment rate in most states peaked in April 2020 and has since declined. In August, the
five states with the highest unemployment rates were Nevada (13.2%), Rhode Island (12.8%), five states with the highest unemployment rates were Nevada (13.2%), Rhode Island (12.8%),
unemployment rates in August were Nebraska (4%), Utah (4.1%), Idaho (4.2%), South Dakota unemployment rates in August were Nebraska (4%), Utah (4.1%), Idaho (4.2%), South Dakota
(4.8%), and Vermont (4.8%). (4.8%), and Vermont (4.8%).
September data have not yet been released at the state level. Unemployment Rates by Industry
Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in Workers whose last job was in the leisure and hospitality industry experienced a higher peak in
unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any unemployment (39.3% in April 2020) than did workers who were previously employed in any
other industry; they also had the highest unemployment rate in other industry; they also had the highest unemployment rate in
from January through from January through
jobs than others. For example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and jobs than others. For example, recent studies suggest that low-wage workers in the leisure and
hospitality industry and other services industries experienced disproportionately hospitality industry and other services industries experienced disproportionately
Figure 4 displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change displays the unemployment rate data for industries while indicating whether the change
from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and from 2019 to 2020 in a given month is statistical y significant.17 CRS chose to compare 2019 and
determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This determine whether unemployment trends are related to the recession or to seasonal trends. This
report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-report attempts to minimize seasonal influences (for non-adjusted data) by comparing year-over-
year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current year estimates for each month. For example, the figure shows that over the course of the current
recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers and steadily increased recession, the unemployment rate steadily declined for agricultural workers and steadily increased
for transportation workers. However, the declines for agricultural workers are not considered for transportation workers. However, the declines for agricultural workers are not considered
statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for statistical y significant when tested against the prior year of data, while increases for
transportation workers are statistical y significant. transportation workers are statistical y significant.
15 T 15 T he third lowest September 2020 unemployment rate was in the agriculture sector (5.0%). T hese data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the hese data are not seasonally adjusted and do not account for the likely seasonal variation in employment within the
16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,”16 Alexander Bartik et al., “ Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis,” NBER Working Paper NBER Working Paper
No. 27613No. 27613, July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the July 2020; and Guido Matias Cortes and Eliza Forsythe, “ T he Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020. Covid-19 Pandemic,” Upjohn Institute Working Paper, May 2020.
17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, from which they can 17 BLS publishes a series of formulas used to produce standard errors for unemployment rates, from which they can
calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used calculate confidence intervals to determine whether a year -over-year difference is statistically significant. CRS used
these formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Laborthese formulas to calculate significance at the 95% confidence level. Bureau of Labor
Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,Approximate Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals for Current Population Survey Estimates,
2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf. 2018, p. 10, https://www.bls.gov/cps/calculating-standard-errors-and-confidence-intervals.pdf.
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Figure 4. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Industry
Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying Non-seasonal y adjusted data, displaying dif erences between 2019 and 2020 for each month, and statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences statistical significance of year-over-year dif erences
from January to September 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the different
industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-industries are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance of year-over-
year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry year differences is indicated by a black outline. Industry sectors are defined by the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure Classification System (NAICS) and can be found at https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm. The figure
shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers. shows unemployment rates for wage and salary workers.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
As shown iAs shown in Figure 5, part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5% part-time workers experienced a higher peak unemployment rate (24.5%
in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). Part-time workers also had a higher in April 2020) than full-time workers (12.9% in April). Part-time workers also had a higher
unemployment rate in unemployment rate in
workers experienced worse impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has workers experienced worse impacts early in the recession than full-time workers, this gap has
narrowed substantial y. narrowed substantial y.
Figure 5. Monthly Unemployment Rates for Full- and Part-Time Workers
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
As seen As seen
higher for women early in the recession.higher for women early in the recession. Between February and April 2020, the rate for women Between February and April 2020, the rate for women
ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the ages 16-19 increased by 25.8 percentage points to 36.6%; in contrast, the rates for men of the
same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and same age increased by 16.4 percentage points to 27.6%. Since then, the gap between men and
women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high women has narrowed. Although unemployment rates for younger workers remain relatively high
compared to older workers, the compared to older workers, the
teenaged women (14.teenaged women (14.
younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, although women ages 25-54 and younger men and women were not observed in older age groups, although women ages 25-54 and
55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male counterparts. This relatively 55 and over had rates 1-3 percentage points high than their male counterparts. This relatively
modest gap has since narrowed; the rate in modest gap has since narrowed; the rate in
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 6. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age
Source: Created by CRS using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
. Unemployment Rates by Racial Group and Hispanic Ethnicity
As seen As seen
sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the sharply in early 2020. But whereas the unemployment rate for White workers peaked in April, the
rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The rate for Black and Asian workers continued to rise through May. The
((
February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined February 2020. The rate for Black workers has declined
May, compared to a decline of May, compared to a decline of
for White workers across the same period. for White workers across the same period.
18 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian 18 Asian, Black, and White are the three racial categories used in BLS, T able A2: Employment status of the civilian
population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm. population by race, sex, and age. See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Figure 7. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Racial Group
Seasonal y adjusted data, January 2020 to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in People of any race can identify as being either Hispanic or non-Hispanic in the CPS. As seen in
Figure 8,
outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7 outcomes during the current recession. For Hispanic workers, unemployment increased by 13.7
percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the percentage points to 18.9% from February to April 2020. For non-Hispanic workers the
unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as unemployment rate increased by 10 points to 13.6%. These conditions have partial y improved, as
Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 10Hispanic workers experienced an unemployment rate of 10
non-Hispanics. non-Hispanics.
Figure 8. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Hispanic Origin
Source: Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
Notes: Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic Due to the lack of seasonal adjustment for these data, the 2020 unemployment rates for the Hispanic
and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance and non-Hispanic groups are compared to their non-seasonal y adjusted values from 2019. Statistical significance
is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers. is not calculated because BLS does not provide formula parameters for non-Hispanic workers.
Unemployment Rates by Education
In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of In general, workers with lower levels of educational attainment have higher rates of
unemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen iunemployment. This pattern has been amplified during the current recession, as seen in Figure 9. .
The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020 The unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma peaked in April 2020
(21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The (21.2%), which was higher than the peak for al other education levels. The
workers with less than a high school diploma (workers with less than a high school diploma (
education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level education levels. Workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest educational level
classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest classified here, had the lowest peak unemployment rate (8.4% in April) and the lowest
rate ( rate (
Figure 9. Monthly Unemployment Rates by Education
Seasonal y adjusted monthly data Seasonal y adjusted monthly data, January to September 2020
Source: Created by CRS using Created by CRS using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
. Data Limitations and Caveats
National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the National level data presented in this report are from the CPS and state level data are from the
LAUSLAUS
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Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS Census Bureau for BLS. LAUS
using multiple data sources, including the CPS.19 using multiple data sources, including the CPS.19
Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.20 Sampling Both the CPS and LAUS estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling error.20 Sampling
error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while error occurs when the survey sample is not representative of the underlying population, while
non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.21 Sampling error is a non-sampling error describes errors often associated with data collection.21 Sampling error is a
result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS result of statistical theory that underlies any estimate generated through surveys. While the CPS
sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not sample is selected to be representative of the nation, the possibility remains that it does not
accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.22 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of accurately estimate certain nationwide statistics.22 Non-sampling error refers to al sources of
error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and error that are not due to sampling. They can result from incorrect or biased collection and
processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly processing of the data. For example, non-sampling error can occur if a surveyor incorrectly
records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question. records responses or a respondent incorrectly responds to a question.
COVID-19 Related Data Issues
The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors. The COVID-19 pandemic increased non-sampling error in the CPS due to a number of factors.
For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.23 (The For example, BLS reported that the survey experienced lower household response rates.23 (The
bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response bureau has made statements affirming the robustness of its estimates despite these lower response
rates.24) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely rates.24) Furthermore, BLS detected an error in its categorization procedures that likely
underestimated unemployment early in the recession.25 Specifical y, large numbers of workers underestimated unemployment early in the recession.25 Specifical y, large numbers of workers
were classified as were classified as employed but not at work when they should have been recorded as when they should have been recorded as unemployed
on temporary layoff. .
Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the Per agency policy, BLS did not adjust CPS records, but it did provide adjusted estimates of the
unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y unemployment rate. BLS estimated that its categorization error underestimated seasonal y
adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1 adjusted unemployment by roughly 0.9 percentage points in March 2020, 4.8 points in April, 3.1
in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July, in May, 1.2 in June, 0.9 in July,
regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the regarding the underestimate, noting that, “these assumptions probably overstate the size of the
misclassification error.”26 In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this misclassification error.”26 In later months, BLS made efforts to correct this classification error classification error
LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its LAUS was impacted by both the low response rate and the categorization error due to its
connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources connection with the CPS. Considering that LAUS is dependent on a number of other data sources
19 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims 19 In addition to the CPS, LAUS uses the Current Employment Statistics survey, state Unemployment Insurance claims
counts, the Quarterly Census of counts, the Quarterly Census of
Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. Community Survey and Population Estimates Program; https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
20 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s 20 For further discussion of error, see the “Reliability of the Estimates” section of the Employment Situation report’s
T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures, T echnical Note at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm. For a description of LAUS estimation procedures,
see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm. see https://www.bls.gov/lau/laumthd.htm.
21 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm. 21 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/error-measurements.htm.
22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm. 22 For more information, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/topic/sampling.htm.
23 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by 23 See the FAQ BLS produced on this topic for more on the impact of COVID-19 on data collection by
https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm. https://www.bls.gov/covid19/home.htm.
24 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm. 24 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.htm.
25 See CRS Insight IN11456, 25 See CRS Insight IN11456, COVID-19: Measuring Unemployment, by Lida R. Weinstock. , by Lida R. Weinstock.
26 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-26 See https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-
27 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responses in August and marked those they felt could 27 Among other protocols, the Census Bureau monitored survey responses in August and marked those they felt could
be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the be misclassified. T hese responses were then re-evaluated. For more on BLS and Census efforts to reduce the
misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9. misclassification, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/employment -situation-covid19-faq-august-2020.htm#ques9.
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that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS that were impacted by COVID-19 in their own right, the net effect of the pandemic on LAUS
estimates is unknown.28 estimates is unknown.28
General Data Caveats
Other data considerations include the following: Other data considerations include the following:
Lack of seasonally adjusted data: Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS : Seasonal y adjusted data are published by BLS
for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.29 for selected labor force indicators to better account for seasonality in the trends.29
Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related Without seasonal adjustments, it is difficult to distinguish between trends related
to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this to the recession and seasonal trends. Where adjusted data are not available, this
report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences. report compares year-over-year estimates to minimize seasonal influences.
Reference week: In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week In general, CPS data are collected for the calendar week
containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual containing the 12th of the month. This could lead to incongruity between actual
labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed. labor force conditions over the course of a month and the conditions observed.
CPS and LAUS comparability: While the LAUS program uses the same : While the LAUS program uses the same
unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS unemployment concepts as the CPS and uses the CPS as an input, LAUS
estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data). estimates are based on multiple sources (including administrative data).
Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable. Consequently, CPS and LAUS estimates are not directly comparable.
Statistical significance: CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year : CRS used BLS formulas to calculate year-over-year
statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical statistical significance in changes in monthly data. As a tool, statistical
significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.significance does not guarantee that year-over-year changes were meaningful.
Author Information
Gene Falk, Coordinator Gene Falk, Coordinator
Emma C. Nyhof Emma C. Nyhof
Specialist in Social Policy Specialist in Social Policy
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Jameson A. Carter Jameson A. Carter
Paul D. Romero Paul D. Romero
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Isaac A. Nicchitta Isaac A. Nicchitta
Research Assistant Research Assistant
Acknowledgments
The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis The four Research Assistants in CRS’s Domestic Social Policy Division were responsible for the analysis
and writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist inand writing of this report, under the guidance of Gene Falk, Specialist in
congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.congressional staff should be directed to Mr. Falk.
28 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-28 For more on the impacts of COVID-19 on LAUS and its inputs, see https://www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-
19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm. 19-pandemic-on-employment-and-unemployment-statistics.htm.
29 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-29 See CPS and LAUS documentation for more on seasonal adjustment at https://www.bls.gov/cps/seasonal-
adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm. adjustment -methodology.htm and https://www.bls.gov/lau/lauseas.htm.
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Unemployment Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic: In Brief
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