Canada’s October 2019 Elections

Canada is to hold parliamentary elections on October 21, 2019. Polls suggest a close race, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party struggling to hold onto the majority they won in 2015. The outcome of the election could have implications for the United States, which is closely bound to Canada by a 5,500-mile border, extensive commercial ties, and mutual defense commitments.

Electoral System

Canada is a constitutional monarchy with Queen Elizabeth II as sovereign. She is represented in Canadian affairs by a governor general appointed on the advice of the Canadian prime minister. Canada's bicameral parliament includes an elected, 338-seat House of Commons and an appointed, 105-seat Senate. Canadians elect Members of Parliament from individual districts ("ridings") under a first-past-the-post system, which only requires a plurality of the vote to win a seat. Following elections, the sitting prime minister has the right to try to form a new government. If the prime minister's party lacks a majority, it may seek support from other parties to form a minority government, which has occurred several times in Canada's recent history. If those efforts fail, the governor general typically calls on the party that won the most seats to try to form a government. A government lasts as long as it can command a parliamentary majority, for a maximum of four yearsOn October 21, 2019, Canadians went to the polls to elect 338 Members of Parliament. Although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party secured the most seats in the House of Commons, they lost the majority they had won in 2015. Trudeau's new minority government will have to seek support from other parties to pass its agenda. This altered balance of power could have implications for U.S.-Canadian relations, including commercial, defense, and energy ties.

2019 Campaign

Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals came towon power in 2015 on a platformplatform pledging to improve economic security for the middle class. Upon taking and take action on climate change. In office, they enacted a tax cut for middle-income families and, created a new child benefit to help families with the cost of raising children. The Liberals also increased paid parental leave benefits and worked with the provinces to gradually increase Canadians' pension benefits.

Although unemployment is near a 40-year low, many Canadians remain concerned about so-called pocketbook issues. Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer has campaigned on helpingwith the cost of raising children, and increased pension and parental leave benefits. Trudeau also worked with Canada's provinces and territories to develop a national climate change plan that imposes a price on carbon. With unemployment near a 40-year low, the Liberals argued the 2019 election was about whether or not Canada would "keep moving forward." Nonetheless, many Canadians remained concerned about cost-of-living issues in the lead-up to the election. Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer pledged to help Canadians "get ahead." He arguesargued that the Liberal government's carbon tax has increased Canadians' cost of livinghad made necessities more expensive and that four years of deficit spending havehad failed to improve Canadians' lives. The Conservatives have pledged to repeal the carbon tax, cut income taxes, and balance the budget within five years.

The Liberals also facefaced pressure from their left. The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, and the Green Party, led by Elizabeth May, argueargued that the Liberals havehad not enacted the far-reaching changes they promised in 2015. Singh and May criticized Trudeau for abandoning electoral reform and approving an oil pipeline expansion while pledging to reduce carbon emissions. They also sought to win over progressive voters disenchanted by Trudeau's ethics violations and history of wearing blackface.

Results

The Liberals won 157 districts (ridings), which will leave them 13 seats shy of a majority in the 43^rd Parliament. The Liberal Party's vote share declined in every province and territory compared to 2015. They lost 29 seats across the country, including their only footholds in the oil-producing provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan (see Figure 1). The Conservatives won a plurality of all votes cast nationwide but failed to make significant gains in Quebec and Ontario, which hold nearly 60% of the seats in the House of Commons. They will remain the official opposition with 121 seats. The Bloc Québécois, which promotes Quebec sovereignty, surged to a third-place finish by winning 32 seats in the province. The Bloc's gains came largely at the expense of the NDP, which won 24 seats. The Greens won three seats, and a former Trudeau Cabinet minister won reelection as an independent.

Trudeau's minority government will need to negotiate an agreement with another party, such as the NDP or the Bloc, or seek support for its agenda on a case-by-case basis. The government will last as long as it can command a parliamentary majority, for a maximum of four years. Canada's most recent minority governments lasted just over two years on average.

Figure 1. Map of Canada's 2019 Federal Election Results Sources: CRS. Data from Elections Canada.

Potential Implications

The election outcome could affect several aspects of the U.S.-Canada relationship, including trade, defense, and energy ties.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)

After a year of negotiations, the United States, Canada, and Mexico signed the proposed USMCA on November 30, 2018, not enacted the far-reaching changes they promised in 2015. Although the Liberals fulfilled their campaign pledge to legalize recreational marijuana, they abandoned their electoral reform proposal. The Liberals also have straddled both sides of the climate change issue, imposing a price on carbon while approving an oil pipeline expansion. Moreover, a series of ethics violation charges and the emergence of photos of Trudeau wearing blackface have tarnished the prime minister's image, particularly among young Canadians. The Liberals have urged left-leaning Canadians to vote strategically, warning that a splintered progressive vote could produce a Conservative government.

An average of recent polls suggests the Liberals and Conservatives are neck-and-neck heading into the final days of the campaign. Based on current voting intentions, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation projects the Liberals would edge out the Conservatives to win a plurality of seats (see Figure 1). The separatist Bloc Québécois would win the third-most seats, based on its strength in Québec, followed by the NDP, the Greens, and the right-wing People's Party.

Figure 1. State of the Race: October 17, 2019

Potential Implications

The election's outcome could have implications for several aspects of the U.S.-Canada relationship, including trade, defense, and energy and environmental policies.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)

The United States, Canada, and Mexico signed the proposed USMCA on November 30, 2018, after a year of negotiations, to replace the two-decade-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). During the negotiations, the Trudeau government agreed to partially open up Canada's dairy market and made some concessions on intellectual property rights, while avoiding provisions that some observers believe would have been more damaging. Conservative leader Scheer attacked the agreement as a negotiating "failure," which he claimed would reduce market access, make Canada's auto industry less competitive, and increase prescription drug prices. Nonetheless, Scheer indicated he would seek ratification of the agreement, were he to become prime minister. Canada is expected to ratify the agreement after the United States, given that the U.S. Congress is to Canadian interests. Although all of the opposition parties attacked parts of the agreement or the government's negotiating prowess, the USMCA was not a major issue in the campaign. Given the North American trading relationship's importance to Canada, the government likely will secure sufficient support to ratify the agreement. Canada is expected to act after the United States, however, as Members of Congress are discussing potential changes to the agreement with the Trump Administration.

North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)

In 2017, Prime Minister Trudeau and President Trump agreed to modernize and broaden the binational NORAD command, charged with defending U.S. and Canadian airspace and monitoring potential aerospace and maritime threats to North America. The Liberal government also adopted a new defense policy that will increasecalls for a 73% increase in nominal defense spending by 73% over the next decade to acquire new equipment and capabilities. Nevertheless, itthe government has been slow to modernize Canada's fleet of aging fighter aircraft, leading some analysts to question whether Canada will be able to meet its NORAD commitments. Conservative leader Scheer has pledged to strengthen U.S.-Canadian defense ties by seeking to join the U.S. ballistic missile defense program and ensuring fighters selected through a new procurement process are interoperable with those of the United States.

Climate Change and Energy

As noted above, Prime Minister Trudeau has meet its NORAD commitments. Defense expenditures may not be among Trudeau's top priorities in the coming years as he tries to construct parliamentary majorities and recover domestic support. Climate Change and Energy In his first mandate, Trudeau sought to balance his commitment to addressing climate change with Canada's position as a major fossil fuel producer. The Liberal government is implementing a federal carbon-pricing plan throughout Canada despite opposition in certain provinces. Conversely, Trudeau hasHis victory ensures that the federal government's carbon-pricing plan will continue and likely will be supplemented with other green energy initiatives. However, the outlook for further fossil fuel development and pipeline construction is in doubt. In office, the Liberal government promoted the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline into the United States and the expansion from Alberta to Vancouver of the Trans-Mountain pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver, which the CanadianTrudeau government purchased from its U.S. owners after they pulled out of the project. Trudeau opposed two other pipeline projects, however, which would have linked the Alberta oil sands to Canada's east and west coasts. Conservative leader Scheer has vowed to repeal the federal carbon tax and create a "national energy corridor" to move oil across Canada. His plans to combat climate change are vague but include measures to encourage investments in emissions-reducing technologies.

The Liberal Party's potential reliance on the NDP or the Bloc to pass legislation could discourage further pipeline development or even result in the cancellation of the Trans-Mountain pipeline expansion, which could lead to decreased investment in Canada's oil sands and increased alienation in Alberta and Saskatchewan.