Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations

Updated June 25September 11, 2019 Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations Overview Thailand is a long-time military ally and economic partner of the United States. These ties endure, but more than a decade of political turmoil in Thailand, including two military coups in 2006 and 2014, has complicated U.S.Thai relations and erased Thailand’s image as a model democracy in Southeast Asia. Thailand conducted nationwide elections in March 2019— its first since 2011—and in June seated a new government led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army who led the 2014 coup. The polls were conducted under new rules drafted by the junta that structurally protect the military’s influence, and questions remain about the new government’s popular legitimacy. The military government also rewrote Thailand’s constitution to create a militaryappointed Senate, and was widely criticized for harassment of government critics and severe restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly. The United States suspended security assistance to Thailand after the 2014 coup as required by law, but other aspects of the U.S.-Thai military relationship remain, including the annual Cobra Gold military exercise, the largest multilateral exercise in Asia. The United States continues to provide non-security aid to the country, and maintains regional offices for many U.S. programs at the Embassy in Bangkok. As one of Southeast Asia’s most developed nations, Thailand has the potential to support U.S. initiatives, such as broadening regional defense cooperation. Thailand is the 2019 chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and as such is to convene and lead the region’s key multilateral forums this year. However, Bangkok’s domestic challenges and the resulting damage to U.S.-Thai relations have diminished opportunities for new bilateral coordination. Following the 2019 polls, U.S. policymakers face challenges in rekindling the bilateral relationship while encouraging Thailand to fully return to democratic norms. Thailand’s Politics and Elections Thailand’s political turmoil has involved a broad clash between the nation’s political establishment (a mix of the military, royalists, senior bureaucrats, and many urban and middle class citizens) and backers of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed in the 2006 coup and now resides overseas. Thaksin was popular, particularly with the rural poor, because of his populist policies and political empowerment of traditionally marginalized communities. Yet, Thaskin was, and still is, a divisive figure, and critics accused him of corruption and human rights abuses while he was in office. Between 2001 and 2011, Thaksin and his supporters won six consecutive national elections, but their leaders were repeatedly removed from office, by either military or judicial coup. The 2014 military coup deposed an acting prime minister after Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted from the premiership by a Constitutional Court decision that many observers saw as politically motivated. During this period of instability, Thailand has seen numerous largescale demonstrations, and some have turned violent. In 2010, clashes over several weeks killed 80 civilians in Bangkok. Thailand Capital: Bangkok Size: Slightly more than twice the size of Wyoming Population: 68.6 million (July 2018 est.) Infant Mortality: 9 deaths/1,000 live births Fertility Rate: 1.52 children born/woman (U.S.=1.72) GDP (official exchange rate): $455.4 billion (2017 est.) GDP per capita (PPP): $17,900 (2017 est.) Source: CIA World Factbook, 2018 The 2014 coup was Thailand’s 12th successful coup since 1932. It installed then-Army Commander Prayuth as prime minister and head of the military junta. Although Prayuth declared an end to martial law in April 2015, the junta retained authoritarian powers under the new Constitution approved by Thai voters in 2016 that was later signed into law by the King. The new Constitution limits the power of political parties and gives the military the ability to appoint members to an upper house that along with the elected lower house selects the prime minister. In the March 2019 polls, voting ran smoothly overall. The Election Commission of Thailand, however, received widespread criticism when irregularities such as releasing inconsistent and delayed results occurred, raising skepticism about the credibility of the elections. Poll statistics, such as voter turnout in comparison to the number of ballots cast, fluctuated in the days after the election. As poll results continued to change, Prayuth’s military-backed party and the opposing pro-democratic Thaksin faction both claimed to have won enough votes to form a coalition government. Official results were released on May 9, and Prayuth’s party was able to form a coalition government in Parliament by a narrow margin. Prayuth was officially voted in as Prime Minister on June 5, 2019. Royal Succession The monarchy is one of Thailand’s most powerful political institutions. It has few formal authorities, but during King https://crsreports.congress.gov Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations Bhumiphol’s reign, the palace enjoyed popular support and, in turn, political influence. In October 2016, King Bhumiphol passed away, ending a 70-year reign that had made him the world’s longest serving monarch. After his accession to the throne, Bhumiphol’s son Maha Vajiralongkorn, officially known as King Rama X, has been more politically active than his father, opposing some parts of the 2016 Constitution and taking control of the bureau managing the throne’s vast fortune in July 2017. Sino-Thai ties could expand to fill the vacuum. In June 2017, the Thai government announced it would buy 34 Chinese armored personnel carriers, perhaps in an attempt to reduce its reliance on U.S.-made weapons. U.S.-Thai Trade and Economic Relations Bhumiphol rarely interfered in politics in his later years, but was seen as a moderating force that fostered stability among competing political actors. The new king is much less popular than his father, and his political inclinations lean towards the military, which has played a major role in supporting royal legitimacy. Since the 2014 coup, as the military government has sought to limit political criticism, it has interpreted Thailand’s lese-majeste laws, which forbid insults to the monarch, more broadly, to include perceived insults to other officials and government entities. Thailand is an upper middle-income country, and trade and foreign investment play a large role in its economy. In 2018, Thailand’s GDP grew 3.7%, continuing a period of comparatively slow growth. The United States is Thailand’s third largest trading partner, behind Japan and China. In 2018, Thailand was the United States’ 20th largest goods trading partner; its 26th largest goods export market; and a source of $44.5 billion in total two-way goods trade. In 2018, the United States ran a $19.31 billion trade deficit with Thailand, ranking Thailand as the country with the 13th largest bilateral surplus with the United States. In 2017, USTR placed Thailand on its Section 301 Priority Watch List because of the country’s poor intellectual property rights protection and enforcement. U.S.-Thailand Security Relations Thailand’s Regional Relations Security cooperation has long been the strongest pillar of the U.S.-Thai relationship. In addition to hosting military exercises, Thailand has provided the U.S. military with access to important facilities, particularly the strategically located Utapao airbase. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling operations during its campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts, including after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2015 Nepal earthquake. For U.S. officials, intelligence and law enforcement cooperation with Thai counterparts remains a priority, particularly as the United States confronts international criminal and drug networks. In the past, transnational terrorist organizations have taken advantage of Thailand’s relatively permissive environment, including tourist-friendly travel procedures and central location, for their operations in the region. Before the most recent coup, U.S. military leaders generally touted the alliance as apolitical and praised the Thai armed forces for exhibiting restraint amidst the competing protests and political turmoil. However, following the 2014 coup, the United States immediately suspended military aid to Thailand, including $3.5 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and $85,000 in International Military Education and Training (IMET) funds. The U.S. took similar action following the 2006 military coup. The United States has not suspended non-military aid, and capacity building assistance to the country largely has continued. In February 2018, USAID committed $10 million to curtail human trafficking in Thailand. Some military exercises, including the annual Cobra Gold military exercises, have continued. In the years immediately after the coup, fewer U.S. troops participated in Cobra Gold than in previous years, but the scale of U.S. participation has since returned to pre-coup levels. Several analysts have noted that limits on U.S. engagement could lead U.S.-Thai security ties could weaken, and that Thailand’s importance for U.S. interests in Southeast Asia stems from its large economy, its good relations with its neighbors, and, until the coups, its relatively long-standing democratic rule. Thailand is chair of ASEAN for 2019, and Thai officials hope to foster an ASEAN position on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, a strategic concept adopted by the Trump Administration. However, because of Thailand’s political turmoil, it has recently played little leadership role in the region. Historically, Sino-Thai ties have been close. Unlike several of its Southeast Asian neighbors, Thailand has no territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea. Thai imports from China have boomed under the 2010 China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. Human Rights and Democracy Concerns International groups, some Members of Congress, and U.S. officials have criticized Thailand’s alleged human rights abuses, including arbitrary arrests and the lack of protections for trafficking victims, laborers, and refugees. International groups have also identified human rights violations in the Muslim-majority southern provinces where an ongoing insurgency has killed over 7,000 people since 2004. In its 2018 Trafficking in Persons report, the State Department ranked Thailand as a Tier 2 country, an improvement over recent years. Thailand argues that human smuggling, not trafficking, is the main cross-border issue. Thailand is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention nor its 1967 Protocol and does not have a formal national asylum framework. In 2016, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported that Thailand hosted nearly 600,000 refugees, asylum-seekers, and stateless have complicated U.S.Thai relations. The Thai government’s efforts to manipulate political processes and suppress critics has raised questions about Thailand’s prospects for returning to full democratic governance including the peaceful transfer of power and protection for civil liberties, and eventually recognizing civilian authority over the military. After holding elections in early 2019 that many regarded as flawed, Thailand has indicated it wants to reset its relationship with the United States after five years of coup-triggered constraints. As one of Southeast Asia’s most developed nations and a long-time U.S. partner on a range of issues, Thailand has the potential to support U.S. initiatives, such as broadening regional defense cooperation. Thailand is the 2019 chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and is to convene and lead the region’s key multilateral forums this year. However, U.S. policymakers face challenges in rekindling the bilateral relationship with Thailand, which was frustrated by U.S. criticism of the coup, while also encouraging it to fully return to democratic norms. Background on Thailand’s Political Landscape As demonstrated in the close election outcome, Thailand remains deeply politically divided, with the potential for more conflicts ahead. Thailand’s political turmoil has involved a broad clash between the nation’s political establishment (a mix of the military, royalists who are staunch supporters of the monarchy, senior bureaucrats, and many urban and middle class citizens) and democracy activists and backers of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was deposed in the 2006 coup and now resides overseas. Thaksin was popular, particularly with the rural poor, because of his populist policies, challenges to the traditional elites, and political empowerment of traditionally marginalized communities. Between 2001 and 2011, Thaksin and his supporters won six consecutive national elections, but their leaders were repeatedly removed from office, by either military or judicial coup. During this period of instability, Thailand saw numerous large-scale demonstrations, several of which resulted in violent confrontations between factions, or with the military and police. In 2010, clashes between the military and pro-Thaksin demonstrators over several weeks killed 80 civilians in Bangkok. March 2019 Elections Thailand Thailand conducted nationwide elections in March 2019— its first since 2011—and in June seated a new government led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army who led the 2014 coup. The polls were conducted under new rules drafted by the junta that provided structural advantages for military-backed parties, raising questions about the new government’s popular legitimacy. Voting overall ran smoothly, but the Election Commission of Thailand was widely criticized for releasing inconsistent and delayed results, raising skepticism about the credibility of the tallying process. Official results showed that the main opposition party had won the highest number of elected seats. Prayuth’s party, however, was able to form a coalition government with the full support of the militaryappointed Senate. The 2014 coup was Thailand’s 12th successful coup since 1932. The junta drafted a new constitution that created a military-appointed Senate and limited the power of political parties. On July 19, 2019, the U.S. State Department notified Congress of its certification that a democratically elected government had taken office in Thailand. (Under the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 [P.L. 87-195; 22 U.S.C. 2151 et seq.], certain categories of military assistance may not be used to “finance directly any assistance to any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree.”) With this certification, the United States can resume the provision of military assistance that was suspended after the 2014 coup, which includes Foreign Military Sales (FMS) and International Military Education Training (IMET). The monarchy is one of Thailand’s most powerful political institutions. The former king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, passed away in 2016, ending a 70-year reign that had made him the world’s longest serving monarch. The palace has few formal authorities, but Bhumibol enjoyed tremendous popular support and, in turn, political influence. After his accession to the throne, Bhumiphol’s son Maha Vajiralongkorn, now officially known as King Rama X, has been more politically active than his father was in his last years, opposing some parts of the 2016 Constitution and taking control of the bureau managing the throne’s vast fortune in July 2017. Capital: Bangkok Size: Slightly more than twice the size of Wyoming Population: 68.6 million (July 2018 est.) Infant Mortality: 9 deaths/1,000 live births Fertility Rate: 1.52 children born/woman (U.S.=1.72) GDP (official exchange rate): $455.4 billion (2017 est.) GDP per capita (PPP): $17,900 (2017 est.) Source: CIA World Factbook, 2018 https://crsreports.congress.gov Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations U.S.-Thailand Relations The United States and Thailand have longstanding bilateral relations, including a treaty alliance that derives from the 1954 Southeast Asian Treaty Organization, which the U.S. and Thailand reinforced in a bilateral 1962 agreement, the Thanat-Rusk Communique. The United States operates numerous regional offices from the Bangkok Embassy, one of the largest diplomatic missions in the world. Bilateral cooperation includes security initiatives and operations, regional health and education, and others. Security Relations Security cooperation, which dates back to cooperation in the Korean and Vietnam Wars, has long been the highest profile pillar of the U.S.-Thai relationship. In addition to hosting military exercises, Thailand has provided the U.S. military with access to important facilities, particularly the strategically located Utapao airbase and Sattahip naval base. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling operations during its campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts, including after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2015 Nepal earthquake. For U.S. officials, intelligence and law enforcement cooperation with Thai counterparts remains a priority, particularly as the United States confronts international criminal and drug networks. Before the 2014 coup, U.S. military leaders touted the alliance as apolitical and praised the Thai armed forces for exhibiting restraint amidst the competing protests and political turmoil. Following the coup, the United States suspended military aid to Thailand as required by law, including $3.5 million in FMF and $85,000 in IMET funds. The United States did not suspended non-military aid or cooperation, and capacity building assistance to the country was largely uninterrupted. The large-scale annual Cobra Gold military exercises continued. Several analysts have suggested that limits on U.S. engagement allowed U.S.-Thai security ties to weaken, and that Sino-Thai ties—which already were strong and growing—expanded to fill the vacuum. China’s stateowned arms industries provided an appealing and lessexpensive alternative for Thailand, particularly in light of U.S. restrictions on arms sales following the 2014 coup. In 2015, Thailand acquired three diesel-electric submarines from China, Thailand’s most expensive defense procurement to date. In 2017, the Thai government announced it would buy 34 Chinese armored personnel carriers, perhaps in an attempt to reduce its reliance on U.S.-made weapons, and also purchased a $530 million submarine from China. Trade and Economic Relations Thailand is an upper middle-income country, and trade and foreign investment play a large role in its economy. In 2018, Thailand’s GDP grew 3.7%, continuing a period of slow growth compared to previous years. The United States is Thailand’s third largest trading partner, behind Japan and China. In 2018, Thailand was the United States’ 20 th largest goods trading partner; its 26th largest goods export market; and a source of $44.5 billion in total two-way goods trade. In 2018, the United States ran a $19.31 billion trade deficit with Thailand, ranking Thailand as the country with the 13 th largest bilateral surplus with the United States. Thailand did not join negotiations for the proposed regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, and trade discussions between the United States have focused more recently on Thailand’s poor intellectual property rights protections and its protection and subsidization of its large agriculture industry. Thailand has remained on the USTR’s Section 301 Watch List since 2018. Thailand’s Regional Relations Thailand’s importance for U.S. interests in Southeast Asia stems from its large economy and its good relations with its neighbors. Thailand is chair of ASEAN for 2019, and Thailand helped broker consensus on an ASEAN position on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, a strategic concept adopted by the Trump Administration. Thailand has extensive trade and investment relations across the region. Japan is its largest source of foreign direct investment and its second largest trading partner, after China. Historically, Sino-Thai ties have been close, and trade has burgeoned under the 2010 China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. Unlike several of its Southeast Asian neighbors, Thailand has no territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea and has been generally loathe to take an assertive stance against China’s actions there. As a member of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Thailand is involved in a high speed railway project that would connect southern China with several Southeast Asian nations to its south. The project, which has been backed by the Prayuth government, has raised concerns in Thailand by some who question whether it can be operated profitably. Human Rights and Democracy Concerns International organizations have criticized Thailand’s alleged human rights abuses, including the military government’s curtailment of freedoms of speech and assembly; harassment of government critics; use of lese majeste laws to muzzle dissent; arbitrary arrests; and the lack of protections for human trafficking victims, laborers, and refugees. International groups have also identified human rights violations in the Muslim-majority southern provinces where an ongoing insurgency has killed over 7,000 people since 2004. In its 2018 Trafficking in Persons report, the State Department ranked Thailand as a Tier 2 country, an improvement over recent years. Thailand argues that human smuggling, not trafficking, is the main cross-border issue. Thailand is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention nor its 1967 Protocol and does not have a formal national asylum framework. In 2019, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported that Thailand hosted over 95,000 refugees and stateless people. Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs Ben Dolven, Specialist in Asian Affairs Kirt Smith, Research Assistant https://crsreports.congress.gov IF10253 Thailand: Background and U.S. Relations Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress. 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