April 24Updated August 13, 2019
U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
Background
Over the past two years, Congress has demonstrated
significant interest in U.S. and international trade trends as
part of its efforts to examine U.S. trade policy and key U.S.
trading relationships. In particular, demand for comparative
analysis of bilateral trade flows and balances has
heightened as the Trump Administration takes actions with
the intention of reducing U.S. bilateral trade deficits,
enforcing U.S. trade laws and agreements, and promoting
what it considers to be “free,” “fair,” and “reciprocal” trade.
The role of Congress in trade policy stems from a number
of overlapping responsibilities, including its constitutional
authority over regulating commerce with foreign countries
and broad oversight responsibility over the performance of
the economy. The changing dynamics and composition of
U.S. trade are important to Members, because they can
affect the overall health of the U.S. economy, the success of
U.S. workers and firms, and the U.S. standard of living.
U.S. Trade in Goods
U.S. merchandise exports totaled $1.677 trillion in 2018, a
7.7% ($118.98% ($120.7 billion) increase from the 2017 level (Table
1). The value of U.S. merchandise imports was $2.56 trillion
over the same period, up 8.6% ($202.79 billion) from 2017.
U.S. imports increased more than U.S. exports, leading to
an increase of $83.882.1 billion (10.42%) in the U.S.
merchandise trade deficit to $891887.3 billion.
Trade in Goods with Leading Partners
In 2018, the European Union (EU)—as a single entity—
was the United States’ top trading partner in terms of twoway (exports plus imports) merchandise trade, followed by
China, Canada, and Mexico. China’s share in U.S.
merchandise trade has increased dramatically over the past
two decades, from 5.8% in 2000 to 15.6% in 2018. Ranked
by exports, the EU was the leading market for U.S. exports,
which totaled $320.52 billion (19.21% of all U.S. exports).
Canada was the second-largest export market ($299.4300.5
billion worth of U.S. exports, or 17.9%), followed by
Mexico and China. In terms of imports, China was the
leading source of U.S. imports ($540.34 billion, or 21.1% of
all U.S. imports), followed by the EU ($490489.8 billion, or
19.1%), Mexico, and Canada. The United States had
merchandise trade deficits with most of its major partners in
2018, including with China ($419.36 billion), the EU ($170.3169.6
billion), Mexico ($87.386.6 billion), and Japan ($68.95 billion).
U.S. merchandise exports to most major trading partners
increased from 2017 to 2018. The largest was a $37.535.4
billion (12.54%) increase in U.S. exports to the EU. It was
followed by a $21.722.0 billion increase in exports to Mexico
(up 8.99.0%) and a $16.517.4 billion increase to Canada (up 5.86.1%).
In percentage terms, on a country basis, the largest
increases in U.S. exports in 2018
were to India (29.0%),
Italy (25.7%), and the UK (17.8%). U.S. exports to China
and Saudi Arabia decreased 7.2% and 16.7Venezuela (48.3%), India (30.7%), and Nigeria
(23.3%). U.S. exports to Saudi Arabia, China, and Hong
Kong decreased 16.7%, 7.3%, and 5.9%, respectively.
Table 1. U.S. Trade in 2018
U.S.$
(billions)
Total Exports
Exports of Goods
Exports of Services
Total Imports
Imports of Goods
Imports of Services
Total Balance (Deficit)
Balance on Goods (Deficit)
Balance on Services (Surplus)
% Change
from 2017*
2,500.8
6.4
1,672.3
7.7
828.4
3.9501.3
6.3
1,674.3
7.8
827.0
3.5
3,122.9
7.68
2,563.7
8.6
559.2
3.1
-622.1
12.6
-891.3
10.4
269.2
5.5561.7
8.6
567.3
4.3
-627.7
14.1
-887.3
10.2
259.7
1.8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 17 (June 20, 2019).
Note: * not adjusted for inflation.
U.S. merchandise imports from all top trading partners—
except Hong KongNigeria, Hong Kong, and Israel—increased in 2018.
The largest
increases in imports were $53.452.1 billion (12.2%) 11.9%)
from the
EU, $34.04 billion (6.78%) from China, and a $32.9 billion
(10.3$34.1
billion (10.7%) from Mexico. In percentage terms, the largest
largest increases were from Singapore (40.036.7%), Norway
(34.3%), Saudi Arabia
(27.65%), and the UK (14.6Russia (22.4%). U.S.
imports from Hong
Kong decreased 12.8%Nigeria and Hong Kong decreased 20.2% and
12.5%, respectively.
U.S. Trade in Services
In 2018, U.S. exports of services increased 3.95% ($30.728.0
billion), from $797.7799.0 billion to $828.4827.0 billion, while U.S.
services imports grew 3.1% ($16.74.3% ($23.4 billion), from $542.5543.9
billion to $559.2567.3 billion. The U.S. surplus in services trade
increased 5.5% ($14.01.8% ($4.6 billion) to $269.2259.7 billion.
Trade in Services with Leading Partners
The EU was the United States’ top trading partner in terms
of two-way (exports plus imports) trade in servicesservices trade in 2018,
while the largest single-country services trading partners
were the UK, Canada, Japan, and China. Since 2000, the
share of U.S. services trade with partners like the UK,
Canada, and Japan has decreased, while that of China and
India, for example, has grown dramatically. The EU was
the largest export market for U.S. services in 2018. It was
alsoand the largest
foreign supplier of U.S. services imports,
accounting for $255.9 in 2018. It
accounted for $253.6 billion (30.17%) of total U.S. services
exports and for $196.01198.6 billion (35.10%) of total U.S.
services services
imports. After the EU, the top markets for U.S.
services services
exports were the UK, Canada, China, and Japan,
while the top
sources of U.S. services imports were the UK,
Canada, Germany, and JapanJapan, and
India. In 2018, the United States
maintained a services trade
surplus with every major
services trading partner except Italy ($3.6 billion deficit),
India ($3.0 billion), and Taiwan ($1.6 billion
India ($4.4 billion deficit).
https://crsreports.congress.gov
U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
U.S. services exports to nearly allmost leading trading partners
increased in 2018. Exports declined to Japan (down $1.0
billion, or 2.2%) and Saudi Arabia (down $430 million, or
4South Korea (down
$1.6 billion or 6.6%) and Japan (down $790 million or
1.7%). The largest increase in value was $12.59.3 billion to the
EU, followed by $5.38 billion to the UKCanada and $3.42.2 billion to
CanadaHong Kong. In percentage terms, on a country basis, the largest
increases in
U.S. services exports were to Singapore
(16.3%), France (10.5%), Hong Kong (9.8Hong Kong (20.7%), Canada
(10.0%), and India
(8.6%).
Table 2. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services in 2018
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Total
Trade
Exports
Imports
Balance
1,263.2
576.4
686.8
-110.4
China
738.6
179.9
558.7
-378.7
Canada
721.2
361.2
360.0
1.2
(6.6%).
U.S. services imports from all but three of the major trading
partners increased in 2018. Imports from both Brazil and
Germany fell last year, down 12.4% ($896 million) and
6.8% ($2.4 billionBrazil, Argentina,
and Venezuela fell 13.9% ($992 million), 10.1% ($290
million), and 14.6% ($88 million), respectively. The largest
increases in
imports were from the EU ($6.40 billion), UK ($4.0
Canada ($2.7 billion),
and Canada ($3.5 and Singapore ($1.7 billion). In
percentage terms, the largest
increase in U.S. services
imports in 2018 was from Saudi
Arabia (up 30.9Singapore (up 22.0%), followed
by South Korea (up 13.7%)
and Singapore (up 9.4%).
Mexico
677.8
299.7
378.1
-78.5
Japan
300.3
121.1
179.1
-58.0
United Kingdom
263.5
141.5
122.0
19.6
Germany
251.7
92.4
159.2
-66.8
South Korea
169.4
82.0
87.3
-5.3
India
142.3
59.0
83.3
-24.3
Figure 1. U.S. Trade Balance
(in billions of current U.S. dollars)
France
128.8
57.7
71.0
-13.3
Brazil
102.3
66.2
36.1
30.1
2,128.0
1,040.0
1,088.0
-48.1
European Union*
Rest of the World
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 17, 20195%) and Canada (up 8.0%).
Figure 1. U.S. Trade Balance
(in billions of current U.S. dollars)
Table 2. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services in 2018
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Total
Trade
Exports
Imports
Balance
1,262.2
573.8
688.4
-114.6
UK
262.9
140.8
122.1
18.6
Germany
252.3
92.4
159.8
-67.4
France
129.2
57.9
71.3
-13.4
China
736.7
178.0
558.8
-380.8
Canada
725.4
364.5
360.9
3.6
Mexico
678.2
299.8
378.4
-78.6
Japan
300.3
121.2
179.1
-58.0
South Korea
167.3
79.9
87.3
-7.4
India
142.8
58.8
84.0
-25.3
Brazil
103.5
67.6
35.9
31.7
1,514.0
757.8
756.2
1.6
European Union*
Rest of the World
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (June 20, 2019).
Note: * includes trade with all 28 member states combined.
Limitations of Trade Data
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 17 (June 20, 2019).
U.S. Trade in Goods and Services
In 2018, U.S. exports of goods and services totaled $2.5
trillion, while imports totaled $3.1 trillion, resulting in an
overall deficit of $622.1627.7 billion, up 12.614.1% from 2017, but
down from the all-time high level registered in 2006
($761.7 billion). The deficit on goods, however, increased
to an all-time high of $891887.3 billion, from $807.5805.2 billion in
2017 (Figure 1).
Trade in Goods and Services with Leading Partners
The EU was the United States’ largest market for U.S.
goods and services exports in 2018, accounting for $576.4573.8
billion (2322.9%) of total U.S. exports, as well as the leading
source of U.S. imports, which totaled $686.8688.4 billion (22.0%
of total U.S. imports) (Table 2). Canada was the secondlargest U.S. export market, with $361.2364.5 billion worth of
U.S. exports (14.46% of total U.S. exports), and the fourthlargest source of U.S. imports, which totaled $360.09 billion
(11.5%). The share of China in U.S. trade has increased
dramatically over the past few decades. In 2000, it
accounted for 2.0% of total U.S. exports and 7.1% of total
U.S. imports. Last year, China’s share stood at 7.21% of total
U.S. exports and 17.9% of total U.S. imports.
The growth in global production chains, intrafirm trade, and
trade in intermediate goods means that traditional
accounting methods may distort trade data and not fully
reflect the source of resources used in producing goods and
services. This makes it increasingly difficult to understand
and interpret the implications of trade data trends for the
U.S. economy. Thus, theFor example, conventional trade data that often
drive policy discussions (and used here) may underestimate
trade in services, as the data are not measured on a valueadded basis and do not attribute any portion of the traded
value of manufactured and agricultural products to services
inputs. Intermediate services, such as transportation and
distribution, R&D, design and engineering, and business
services, are embedded within a value chain as inputs, and
thus are often not visible in the data.
Issues for Congress
The changes in U.S. trade patterns pose both opportunities
and challenges for the United States. These developments
have intensified congressional interest in U.S. trade policy
and demand for information and analysis of bilateral U.S.
trade flows. In the coming months, Members of Congress
may face
issues such as shaping U.S. trade policy to reflect this
this changing composition of trade, enhancing the competitive
competitive position of U.S. firms and workers, and
addressing tensions,
trade barriers, and issues raised by the
growing role of
emerging economies in the global
economy. Also,
In addition, questions affecting U.S. trade trends
could arise as the
Trump Administration renegotiates FTAstrade
agreements and pursues new
ones. Members might weigh
potential costs and benefits to
their constituents—and to the
U.S. economy as a whole—as
they debate and potentially
ratify these agreements.
Andres B. Schwarzenberg, Analyst in International Trade
and Finance
IF11189
https://crsreports.congress.gov
U.S. Trade: Recent Trends and Developments
Disclaimer
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https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF11189 · VERSION 1 · NEW2 · UPDATED