Libya: Conflict Disrupts U.S.-Backed Transition Plan

INSIGHTi Libya: Military Moves Challenge U.S.-Backed Transition Plan April 5, 2019 On April 4, 2019, Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) movementcoalition that has controlled eastern Libya with foreign support since 2014, orderedforeign military and financial support since 2014, ordered forces loyal to him to begin a unilateral military operation to secure the capital, Tripoli. Tripoli is the seat of the Government of National Accord (GNA), an interim body recognized by the United States and United Nations (U.N.) Security Council as Libya’s legitimate governing entity. The LNA stated its deployment to northwestern Libya is meant “to purge it of the remainder of the terrorist groups present in their last hideouts” (CRS translation from Arabic). In response to LNA movements, GNA Prime Minister-designate Fayez al Serraj mobilized pro-GNA forces. Fighting has been reported in some areas near Tripoli. United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General António Gutteres was in Tripoli as these events occurred, visiting's legitimate governing entity. In response to LNA movements, GNA Prime Minister-designate Fayez al Serraj mobilized pro-GNA forces. Fighting is ongoing near Tripoli, with reports of airstrikes and mobilization by several militia forces. On April 7, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stated that the U.S. government opposes Haftar's offensive and urged its "immediate halt." Secretary Pompeo said "forces should return to status quo ante positions," and said, "all involved parties have a responsibility to urgently deescalate the situation." U.N. Secretary General António Gutteres was in Tripoli as the offensive began, visiting in a show of solidarity for a planned U.N.-sponsored conference among Libyans scheduled to begin on April 14. The conferenceconference, endorsed by the U.N. Security Council and facilitated by Gutteres’ ' Special Representative and United NationsU.N. Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) head Ghassan Salamé, , is being convened to produce consensus among Libyan factions on principles to guide the completion of the country’'s extended post-2011 transitiontransition. Specifically, the conference seeks Libyans’' endorsement of new interim power sharing and national security arrangements and an agreed schedule for legislative and presidential elections in 2019. Conflict and discord over these issues have disrupted Libya’'s post-Qadhafi transition transition since 2011, producing rival governments and empowering local militias. U.N. and other international efforts to reach consensus among Libyans during 2018 faltered as armed groups competed over strategic territory. LNA military moves in 2018 resulted in the country’'s major oil producing areas and infrastructure in the center and southwestcenter and southwest coming under the effective control of LNA-aligned fighters. The United States and other international actors issued statementsissued two statements insisting that the LNA not wrest control of oil resources and revenue from the National Oil Corporation and GNA. Nevertheless, the de facto changes in the balance of power on the ground appearappeared to have strengthened the LNA’ LNA's hand in negotiations. The developments also generated a, while generating the renewed sense of international urgency to conclude the transition before wider conflict erupts. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov IN11091 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Congressional Research Service 2 Figure 1. Map of Libya Source: CRS using ESRI, U.S. government, and United Nations data. Notes: This map does not necessarily reflect the policies of the United States Government with regard to geographic to conclude the transition according to the U.N. plan before wider conflict could erupt. The outbreak of fighting reflects a lack of mutual trust among some key Libyan parties. If fighting continues, decisions by outside actors about whether to coordinate de-escalatory action or provide unilateral support for proxies could prove decisive. Past rounds of prolonged combat in densely populated coastal western Libya have been destructive and have killed and displaced Libyan civilians.

Figure 1. Map of Libya

Source: CRS using ESRI, U.S. government, and United Nations data.

Notes: This map does not necessarily reflect the policies of the U.S. Government with regard to geographic names or boundaries. Names and boundary representation are not necessarily authoritative. International statements issued in the wake of since the recent Libyan mobilizations began reflect common perspectives and concerns. On April 4:  The and concerns, emphasizing the risk of escalation and demanding that forces disengage. On April 4, the governments of the United States, France, Italy, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom jointly stated their deep concern about fighting near Gharyan, where LNA forces announced they had been welcomed just 60 miles south of the capital (CRS translation from Arabic) ((Figure 1). The U.S. government and its fellow signatories urged all parties “to "to immediately de-escalate tensions.”" The governments jointly affirmed that “"our governments oppose any military action in Libya and will hold accountable any Libyan faction that precipitates further civil conflict.” The United States had previously joined other members of the U.N. Security Council on March 26 in expressing support for the national conference. Congressional Research Service  " The G-7 countries issued a similar statement on April 5. Both statements avoided singling out Haftar and the LNA. U.N. Secretary-General Gutteres called for “calm and restraint,” expressing his concern about military movements and “the risk of confrontation.” Gutteres flew to eastern Libya for consultations on April 5, and, on departure, signaled with “a heavy heart” his hope for peace.  Russia’s Libya Envoy Lev Dengov told Interfax that, “Russia is continuing to support a peace process in Libya,” and described calls for mobilization “as provocative and counterproductive.” 3 The LNA’s moves and counter-mobilizations by the GNA and other western Libyan forces directly challenge the stated preferences of the Security Council and the U.S. government. The developments pose complex questions for U.S. policymakers and Members of Congress. These include:  How might "calm and restraint," and then flew to eastern Libya for consultations. On departure, he stated with "a heavy heart" his hope for peace. Meeting later that day, the Security Council agreed on a verbal press statement calling on "LNA forces to halt all military movements" and calling "on all forces to de-escalate and halt military activity."

Russia's Libya Envoy Lev Dengov told Interfax on April 5 that, "Russia is continuing to support a peace process in Libya," and described calls for mobilization "as provocative and counterproductive." In Egypt on April 6, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "we are opposed to attempts to apportion blame unilaterally." On April 7, diplomats reported that Russia had blocked a U.N. Security Council statement that would have singled out Haftar and the LNA in demanding a halt to their operations.

The LNA's moves and counter-mobilizations by the GNA and other western Libyan forces directly challenge the stated preferences of the Security Council and the U.S. government. International powers appear to share a desire to avoid continued violence but also appear to differ on how to defuse the situation and to hold actors accountable. Most statements issued to date have called on all Libyans to deescalate the situation, with some specifically mentioning Haftar and the LNA. The developments in Libya and the evolving postures of other governments pose complex questions for U.S. policymakers and Members of Congress, including:

How might military confrontation in western Libya or dramatic changes in governing arrangements affect U.S. counterterrorism operations? According to the U.S. intelligence community community, the capabilities of the Libya-based Islamic State affiliate “"have been degraded, but it is still capable of conducting attacks on local and Western targets in Libya and possibly elsewhere in the region.”" IS supporters carried out attacks across Libya in 2018. U.S. forces have partnered with some forces nominally aligned with the GNA, and relocated some forces from Libya in response to the fighting. Periodic U.S. airstrikes continue to target suspected IS or AQ personnel. Widespread instability or conflict could presumably give IS supporters and other extremists new opportunities.  What tools do the Administration and Congress have to deter further unilateral actions by Libyan parties that may undermine U.S.-supported, U.N.-facilitated transition plans or respond if such actions occur? A A U.N. arms embargo and asset freeze is in place, and U.S. executive orders provide for sanctions against those undermining Libya’'s transition. The Administration could seek to convince the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions or restrict oil transactions to influence the decisions of Libyan actors. However, apparent differences of opinion and preferred approaches among Russia, the United States, and France may complicate or prevent joint action. Congress could move to Congress could move to require the imposition of U.S. sanctions currently provided for by executive order. Congress has conditionally funded limited U.S. transition support and security assistance programs for Libya since 2011 and is considering the Trump Administration’'s request for assistance funds for FY2020.  How might How might military confrontation in western Libya affect Libya’'s neighbors and Europe? Instability in western Libya has displaced Libyans and threatened the security of Tunisia and Algeria since 2011. Western Libya also hosts a foreign migrant population that could be vulnerable in the event of conflict. European cooperation with western Libya-based actors on security and migration could be disrupted by renewed fighting. Tunisia and Algeria since 2011. National elections are scheduled for October and November 2019 in Tunisia, and Algeria is now undergoing a sensitive political transition. U.S. AFRICOM identifies containing instability in Libya as one of its six main lines of effort and works to support diplomatic efforts to reconstitute the Libyan state. Humanitarian officials are warning that fighting "could potentially result in significant population displacement." Western Libya also hosts a vulnerable foreign migrant population. European security and migration cooperation with western Libya-based actors could be disrupted by continued fighting. How is the United States postured to respond to related contingencies? U.S. diplomatic personnel continue to operate from the Libya External Office (LEO) in Tunis, Tunisia, led by Charge d’'Affaires-Ad Interim Peter Bodde (the former U.S. Ambassador to Libya). State Department and USAID personnel operate from LEO Tunis in support of U.S.-funded foreign and humanitarian assistance programs in Libya. U.S. AFRICOM identifies containing instability in Libya as one of its six main lines of effort and works to support diplomatic efforts to reconstitute the Libyan state. Bodde and U.S. AFRICOM Commander General Thomas Waldhauser visited Tripoli in March 2019 in a show of support for the GNA government. AFRICOM and the U.S. military have established liaison relationships with local security actors in several parts of Libya.  Congressional Research Service 4 Author Information Christopher M. Blanchard Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. IN11091 · VERSION 4 · NEW local security actors in several parts of Libya, though, as noted above, AFRICOM has relocated some U.S. military personnel from Libya temporarily.