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Sudan

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Updated January 17, 2019 Sudan When unified (1956-2011), Sudan was Africa’s largest country by area, and the site of its longest-running civil war. In 2011, after decades of fighting broadly described as a conflict between the predominately Muslim “Arab” north and “African” south, Sudan split in two. The split did not resolve other conflicts, in Darfur, Southern Kordofan, and Blue Nile. Overlapping struggles between security forces and armed groups, nomadic and farming communities, and among ethnic groups have caused extensive displacement and suffering. Across Sudan, economic pressures, social tensions, and dissent present challenges for the Islamist government of President Omar al Bashir, who came to power in a 1989 coup. Nationwide anti-government protests in early 2019 suggest growing pressure for regime change. South Sudan’s secession was a major financial blow to Sudan, which lost 75% of its oil production, two-thirds of export earnings, and over half its fiscal revenues. A large security sector budget, mismanagement, and corruption all compound Sudan’s economic troubles, which spur periodic protests and domestic criticism of the government. The International Monetary Fund assesses that U.S. economic sanctions, imposed in 1997, also undermined economic stability and growth. Major U.S. enforcement actions for sanctions violations in 2014-2015 significantly reduced Sudan’s access to U.S. dollars and further impeded its access to international financial markets and institutions. Sudan has long sought relief from U.S. sanctions, and the outgoing Obama Administration announced a move to ease them in January 2017, after determining that Sudan had taken positive steps over a six-month period in five key areas: enhancing counterterrorism cooperation; addressing the threat of a regional armed group, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA); ceasing negative interference in South Sudan; ceasing hostilities in conflict zones; and improving humanitarian access. President Trump permanently revoked the economic sanctions in October 2017. Some U.S. restrictions remain, including on debt relief and based on a state sponsor of terrorism designation—the latter is now the focus of “Phase II” of a bilateral engagement framework. Background Despite Sudan’s diversity, northern-led regimes espousing Islamist ideals have dominated government since independence, often pressing distant provinces to conform to the center, Khartoum, rather than accommodating local customs and institutions. Instead of forging a national identity, these policies exacerbated Sudan’s racial, cultural, and religious differences. Attempts to Arabize and Islamize the countryside were resisted by southerners and other marginalized groups and sparked insurgencies in the south. Groups in other regions rose up periodically, citing local grievances. Some in the central states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile joined the southern rebellion, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). Figure 1. Sudan Key Facts Source: Fact information from CIA World Factbook and IMF, 2018. The north-south wars took a heavy toll on both sides. In 2005, the government and the SPLM signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which enshrined the south’s right to self-determination after a six-year “interim period,” during which the SPLM and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) formed a unity government. Southern Sudanese voted overwhelmingly in January 2011 to secede and achieved independence in July of that year. The CPA failed to resolve several contentious issues, and talks have continued on border disputes and related security issues, debts, and once-shared resources, such as oil. The proximity of Sudanese rebel activity to the border complicated its demilitarization after separation, as did the unresolved status of contested areas, notably Abyei, which was granted special semi-autonomous status in the CPA. An official referendum for Abyei residents on whether to retain their special status in Sudan or join South Sudan was slated for 2011 but has been indefinitely delayed. The deployment of the U.N. Interim Force for Abyei (UNISFA) defused a violent stand-off in 2011, but local tensions persist and still have the potential to spur a larger conflict. Relations between Sudan and South Sudan improved in 2018. A long-delayed joint border monitoring mission is now semi-operational, though there has been little progress on border demarcation. Sudan surprised many by mediating a new peace deal between warring parties in South Sudan mid-year. If the deal holds it would allow a resumption of oil production in fields shut by South Sudan’s civil war, generating needed revenue for both Khartoum and Juba. Ongoing Conflicts The CPA did not resolve Sudan’s longstanding centerperiphery tensions. Khartoum has responded to the political demands of restive regions more often with force than with substantive reform and has financed local militias to help counter insurgencies. The militias have been linked to indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks on civilians. Sudan has conducted aerial attacks in Darfur in violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1591 (2005). https://crsreports.congress.gov Sudan Darfur. More than a decade after the George W. Bush Administration declared genocide in Darfur in 2004, violence still plagues the region. Fighting reportedly displaced as many as 265,000 Darfuris in the first half of 2016, primarily in the Jebel Marra area, a long-time rebel stronghold. After a major offensive, the government declared Darfur free of rebellion in April 2016, and on June 30, 2016 it declared a unilateral ceasefire in Darfur and in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan. U.N. monitors suggest the military conducted aerial bombardments in Jebel Marra into late 2016, however. Sporadic skirmishes, insecurity, and government restrictions continue to limit access by aid workers and peacekeepers to some areas. Direct clashes between the military and the Darfur rebels quieted after the 2016 offensive, but there has been little progress in the peace process. U.N. monitors report that significant clashes between government forces and one rebel faction resumed in 2018; other rebels have withdrawn to Libya to regroup. Intercommunal clashes in Darfur continue, as do attacks by armed groups on civilians, peacekeepers, and aid workers. In this context, there has been debate within the U.N. Security Council over pressure from Khartoum to end the African Union-U.N. Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). The Council agreed in 2017 to reconfigure the mission and in 2018 authorized a significant troop reduction (to just over 4,000 troops by mid-2019), with UNAMID’s possible exit in June 2020. The ICC. In 2005, the U.N. Security Council granted the International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction over serious crimes committed in Darfur. Over a decade later, the ICC has yet to commence a trial, and five arrest warrants remain outstanding, including two for the arrest of President Bashir on charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. The ICC Prosecutor has repeatedly expressed frustration with Security Council inaction on the arrest warrants. Sudan remains uncooperative with the Court. Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile. The conflict in these states, often referred to as “the Two Areas,” is driven by unresolved grievances that date back to the north-south war, when some local groups joined the SPLM rebellion. The CPA provided for a process in which the two states might achieve greater autonomy within Sudan, but it stalled and the conflict reignited in 2011. South Sudan’s ruling party denies supporting the rebels, known as the SPLM-North (SPLM-N), despite their historic relationship. The SPLM-N (now split into two factions) and the major Darfur rebel groups have a loose alliance, the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF). Khartoum has restricted aid agencies’ access to rebel-held areas since the onset of the conflict. Political Challenges The government faces mounting domestic pressure as 2019 begins: protests that began over the price of bread have spread across the country, with demonstrators demanding an end to the regime. Elections are scheduled for 2020, and the NCP’s plan to remove term limits from the constitution to allow Bashir to run again now appears likely to spark further unrest. Several prominent opposition leaders who had joined a “National Consensus Government” (formed in 2017) have quit. The major opposition parties boycotted the last elections, in 2015, when Bashir won 94% of the vote. The Humanitarian Situation Over seven million Sudanese were in need of humanitarian aid in 2018. Almost 1.8 million Darfuris remain displaced internally, and Chad hosts over 330,000 Darfuri refugees. As many as 780,000 people may be displaced in Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan, and Abyei. South Sudan and Ethiopia host over 300,000 refugees from the Two Areas. Sudan hosts over 900,000 refugees, most from South Sudan. Foreign Relations Sudan has taken conspicuous steps since 2014 to repair relations with key Arab Gulf countries, which are important sources of investment. Those ties had cooled amid concern over Sudan’s ties to Iran and its perceived support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Sudan has deployed as many as 14,000 troops, reportedly including child soldiers, to support the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, in return for Gulf aid. Sudan’s relations with European countries also have improved in recent years, in part based on cooperation to counter migrant flows through Sudan. U.S. Policy and Foreign Assistance U.S. relations with Sudan, turbulent for over two decades, have improved since 2016. After a nine-month review of Sudan’s compliance with the Obama Administration’s “five-track engagement strategy,” the Trump Administration announced its decision in October 2017 to make permanent the temporary sanctions relief provided by President Obama. President Trump has indicated support for continued efforts to improve bilateral relations, but has stressed that further normalization of ties will require additional progress by Sudan, including with respect for human rights and religious freedom, as well as compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions on North Korea. U.S. sanctions on Sudan, some of which remain in place, have been imposed through both Executive Orders and congressionally enacted legal restrictions. They are based on Sudan’s debt arrears, support for international terrorism, and pervasive human rights violations. The State Department continues to rank Sudan poorly on human trafficking and has designated it as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act. Sudanese law permits the death penalty for apostasy and adultery and prison sentences or flogging for blasphemy. Sudan has been designated as a State Sponsor of Terrorism since 1993. Nonetheless, successive administrations have described Sudan as a “cooperative” counterterrorism partner and have praised its cooperation regarding the Islamic State in particular. The Trump Administration has indicated that it would consider lifting Sudan’s designation if more progress is made on counterterrorism cooperation, human rights and other key issues. The government’s response to recent protests may affect that decision. Development aid for Sudan has been extremely limited since South Sudan’s separation. The State Department requested $2.4 million for FY2019 in nonemergency aid, to support civil society and conflict mitigation. U.S. humanitarian aid totaled over $327 million in FY2018. Lauren Ploch Blanchard, https://crsreports.congress.gov IF10182May 28, 2019 Sudan On April 11, 2019, Sudan’s military removed President Omar al Bashir from office after three decades in power. Four months of near-daily protests across the country had shaken the government, and in early April, huge crowds gathered in front of the military’s headquarters in Khartoum to demand regime change. The protests, triggered by austerity measures amid an economic crisis, were fueled by a range of grievances against the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and Bashir, who took power in a 1989 coup. The trajectory of the post-Bashir transition in Sudan is uncertain. The protests continue as a coalition of opposition groups and professional unions—the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC)—seek to negotiate a transfer of power from the Transitional Military Council (TMC) that ousted Bashir to a civilian-led transitional government. The African Union has voiced support for the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people and condemned what it terms a coup d’état, demanding that the military cede authority to civilians by June 30. While the TMC and FFC have reached agreement on some aspects of a transitional arrangement, in which elections would be held in 2023, they remain at odds over the role of military leaders in the interim government. Meanwhile, the TMC has assumed de facto authority—issuing decrees, replacing various government officials, and conducting foreign relations. Sudan’s military has a long history of intervention in politics (Bashir’s 1989 coup was the country’s fourth). Military leaders played prominent roles in Bashir’s regime, and some observers question the TMC’s commitment to reform. The protest leaders have sought to pursue change peacefully, but several violent attacks on protesters by members of the security forces have raised tensions during the negotiations. While the TMC condemned the attacks and blamed rogue elements, the incidents fuel concern about splits in the security forces and about TMC leaders’ intentions. Islamists are also seen as potential spoilers. With rampant inflation, a foreign currency shortage, and a heavy debt burden, Sudan needs international support to stabilize its economy. Its $1.3 billion in debt arrears to the International Monetary Fund restrict access to international financing, as does its designation by the United States as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt have supported the TMC politically and financially, and by some accounts may have played a role in facilitating Bashir’s ouster. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have offered $3 billion in aid, but economists say it will only provide short-term relief. The European Union says it stands ready to assist “as soon as a civilian transition takes place.” The United States has suspended bilateral talks on easing sanctions and suggested that it would be “harder” to support Sudan’s economic development without a transition to civilian rule. Some Members of Congress have called for U.S. pressure to ensure a swift transfer of power to civilians in S.Res. 188 and in correspondence. Figure 1. Sudan Key Facts Source: Fact information from CIA World Factbook and IMF, 2018. Background Sudan, when unified (1956-2011), was Africa’s largest country. In 2011, after decades of fighting often broadly described as a conflict between the predominately Muslim “Arab” north and non-Muslim “African” south, Sudan split in two. The split did not resolve Sudan’s other conflicts; overlapping struggles between security forces and rebels, nomadic and farming communities, and among ethnic groups have caused extensive displacement and suffering. Northern regimes espousing Islamist ideals have dominated government for much of Sudan’s post-independence history, despite its diversity, pressing distant provinces to conform to the riverine heartland, rather than accommodating local customs and institutions. Instead of forging a national identity, these policies exacerbated the country’s racial, cultural, and religious differences. Attempts to Arabize and Islamize the south sparked insurgencies. Groups in other regions also rose up periodically, citing local grievances. Some in the states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile joined the southern rebels, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The north-south wars took a heavy toll. In 2005, the government and the SPLM signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which enshrined the south’s right to self-determination after a six-year “interim period.” Southern Sudanese voted overwhelmingly in January 2011 to secede and achieved independence in July of that year. South Sudan’s secession was a major financial blow to Sudan, which lost 75% of its oil production, two-thirds of export earnings, and over half its fiscal revenues. A bloated security sector budget, mismanagement, and corruption have all compounded Sudan’s economic troubles. The International Monetary Fund assesses that U.S. sanctions also undermined economic growth. Major U.S. enforcement actions for sanctions violations in 2014-2015 significantly reduced Sudan’s access to U.S. dollars and further impeded its access to international financial markets and institutions. While disputes remain, relations between Sudan and South Sudan have improved in recent years. Sudan surprised https://crsreports.congress.gov Sudan many when it mediated a new peace deal between South Sudan’s warring parties in 2018. The deal, if it holds, would allow oil production in fields shut by South Sudan’s civil war to resume, generating needed revenue for both countries. Rebel activity along the countries’ shared border complicates the border’s demilitarization, as does the unresolved status of contested areas, notably Abyei, which was granted special semi-autonomous status in the CPA. An official referendum for Abyei residents on whether to retain their special status in Sudan or join South Sudan was slated for 2011 but has been delayed indefinitely. The deployment of the U.N. Interim Force for Abyei (UNISFA) defused a violent standoff in 2011, but local tensions still have the potential to spur a larger conflict. Conflicts The CPA did not resolve longstanding center-periphery tensions in Sudan. Successive governments have responded to the political demands of restive regions more often with force than reform and have financed local militias to help counter insurgencies. Those militias have been linked to indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks on civilians. U.N. experts continue to document violations of an arms embargo and ban on offensive military overflights established in Security Council resolution 1591 (2005). Darfur. Violence continues to plague the Darfur region of western Sudan, where peace remains elusive. The government launched a major offensive in early 2016 that led to mass displacement. Fighting has diminished since Bashir declared a ceasefire in mid-2016, with some rebels withdrawing to Libya to regroup. U.N. monitors report that significant clashes between government forces and one rebel faction resumed in 2018. Sporadic skirmishes, intercommunal violence, and attacks on peacekeepers, aid workers, and civilians persist. Nevertheless, the African Union-U.N. Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) is withdrawing, with plans for the last troops to leave in 2020. In 2005, the U.N. Security Council granted the International Criminal Court jurisdiction over serious crimes committed in Darfur. The TMC has rejected calls to extradite Bashir to the Hague, where he is wanted on Darfur-related charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile. The conflict in these states, often referred to as “the Two Areas,” is driven by unresolved grievances that date back to the north-south war, when some local groups joined the SPLM rebellion. The CPA set out a process by which the two states might achieve greater autonomy within Sudan, but it stalled and the conflict reignited in 2011. The Sudanese government has restricted aid agencies’ access to rebel-held areas. Humanitarian Situation Sudan began 2019 with over 5.7 million people in need of aid, a situation expected to worsen in the lean season midyear. Roughly 1.8 million Darfuris are displaced internally, and Chad hosts over 330,000 Darfuri refugees. IDP estimates for Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile vary; South Sudan and Ethiopia host over 300,000 refugees from those areas. Over 30,000 people are displaced in Abyei. Sudan hosts over 900,000 refugees, most from South Sudan. Sudan’s Foreign Relations Strategically positioned on the Red Sea, Sudan’s political trajectory is of interest to an array of foreign actors. Egypt’s engagement is driven by domestic political considerations and its concerns about the flow of the Nile. Sudan’s former ties with Iran and links to the Muslim Brotherhood under Bashir strained its relations with key Arab Gulf countries, which are important sources of investment. In 2014, struggling with the loss of oil revenue and under mounting pressure from Saudi Arabia, Sudan severed relations with Tehran. It joined the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015, reportedly deploying as many as 14,000 troops, some underage, in return for Gulf aid. Bashir’s refusal to cut ties with Qatar was a source of tension with the Saudis and Emiratis. Sudanese officials worked to repair relations with the United States, but Bashir also engaged Russia, already a top weapons source, seeking to expand cooperation and offering to host Russian naval facilities. Russian security contractors have been increasingly active there. U.S. Policy and Foreign Assistance U.S. relations with Sudan have been turbulent for three decades. The United States restricted aid after the 1989 coup, and in subsequent years imposed a range of sanctions through Executive Orders and congressional measures. Restrictions on U.S. engagement are based on Sudan’s debt arrears, links to international terrorism, and pervasive human rights violations. The State Department has designated Sudan as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act. Sudan has long sought relief from U.S. sanctions. The Obama Administration moved to ease them in January 2017 as part of a bilateral reengagement effort, after determining Sudan had taken positive steps on five “tracks”: enhancing counterterrorism cooperation; ceasing hostilities in conflict zones; improving humanitarian access; ending negative interference in South Sudan; and addressing the threat of a regional armed group, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). In October 2017, the Trump Administration reported that Sudan had sustained positive actions on the five tracks and permanently revoked certain sanctions. Others remain in place, and in November 2018, despite reports of backsliding on some tracks, the Administration announced “Phase II” of the bilateral engagement framework. Under Phase II, the Administration would consider rescinding Sudan’s 1993 State Sponsor of Terrorism designation if the country met the statutory criteria and made further progress on the original tracks and other areas of longstanding U.S. concern, including human rights, religious freedom, outstanding terrorism-related claims, and Sudan’s relations with North Korea. The United States has suspended Phase II discussions as it calls for a civilian-led transition. Development aid for Sudan is extremely limited, and debt relief is restricted by Congress in annual appropriations. The State Department requested $1.5 million in nonemergency aid for FY2020, to support civil society and consensus-building. The United States has provided over $378 million in humanitarian aid in FY2018-FY2019. Lauren Ploch Blanchard, IF10182 https://crsreports.congress.gov Sudan Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material. https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF10182 · VERSION 1213 · UPDATED