Iraq’s 2018 Elections

Iraqis are voting in national, regional, and provincial elections in 2018 as they seek to consolidate the country's military victory over the forces of the Islamic State, rebuildrebuild shattered communities, and improve government performance. On May 12, Iraqi voters went to the polls to choose national legislators for four-year terms in the 329-seat Council of Representatives (COR), Iraq's unicameral legislature. The Kurdistan Regional Government has proposed holding long-delayed legislative and executive elections on September 30, with nationwide provincial council elections set for December. Observers have been surprised by a lower than expected voter turnout and by preliminary results showing that Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr's list appears set to win the most seats overall.

Voters in Iraq's 18 governorates selected their preferred political list and/or candidate in the May 2018 COR election, with seats awarded proportionally on a complex formula basis. Some Iraqis have criticized the electoral formula as biased toward larger parties. Once ratified, theThe COR election results will informare informing the selection of a new prime minister and cabinet, with nominees determined through coalition negotiations among the various parties, lists, and candidates. One quarter of the COR seats are reserved for women and nine seats are reserved for representatives of minority groups, including Christians and Yazidis.

Most candidates and coalitions adopted campaign rhetoric reflecting the anticorruption, pansectarian, and proreformpan-sectarian, and pro-reform aspirations of popular protest movements, although coalition platforms and mobilization strategies were defined by a mix of new appeals and established methods. Overall, turnout declined considerably from levels in 2005, 2010, and 2014, with 44.5% of more than 23 million registered Iraqi voters participating. Analysts attribute the decline to abstentions and an organized boycott, voter disillusion and fatigue, the unpopularity of incumbents and establishment candidates, technical and administrative failures, and continuing internal displacement. Voters did not choose candidates strictly on ethnic or sectarian lines and demonstrated a range of candidate and list preferences within communal groups.

Preliminary results show the Sa'The Sa'irun (On the March) coalitioncoalition led by populist Shia cleric and longtime U.S. antagonist Muqtada al Sadr's Istiqama's Istiqama (Integrity) list set to win more than 50 seats and the most overallplaced first, followed by the predominantly Shia Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Hadi al Ameri of the Badr Organization. Sa'irun leveraged a unique slate of new candidates to distinguish itself and campaigned on an anticorruptionanticorruption and service delivery platform. Fatah includes several individuals formerly associated with the mostly Shia Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) militias that helped fight the Islamic State, including figures and movements with ties to Iran. Prime Minister Haider al Abadi is seeking a second term, but his Nasr (Victory) coalition underperformed to place third in the election, and he will depend on support from Shia rivals if he is to remain in office and service delivery platform.

Preliminary results and local press reports differ over whether the next-highest number of seats will go to the Fatah (Conquest) coalition led by Badr Organization and former Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) leader Hadi al Ameri or the Nasr (Victory) coalition led by Prime Minister Haider al Abadi. Abadi's inclusive, Shia-led list earned the most votes in predominantly Sunni Ninewa governorate, home to the city of Mosul, but fell short in Baghdad and other areas. The Fatah list includes candidates with ties to Iran who oppose close relations with the United States.

Former prime minister Nouri al Maliki's State of Law coalition, Ammar al Hakim's Hikma (Wisdom) list, and Iyad Allawi's Wataniya (National) list also are projected to have 20 or morewon significant blocs of seats. Among Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) won the most seats, while Wataniya and smaller Kurdish opposition lists have joined together to condemn alleged vote tampering and to demand cancellation of the results.

Iraqi analysts note that election results are one reference point for post-election government formation negotiations among Iraq's political factions, and underscore that vote totals may not directly determine the leadership or the final makeup of Iraq's next government. Electoral lists may combine or fracture during negotiations aimed at creating blocs in the COR. Analysts are discussing various scenarios and expect negotiations to remain fluid and somewhat opaque. Some scenarios project a status quo result based on an expansive but fragile coalition government, while others consider alternate coalitions that could include or exclude different parties. Observers have identified some possible candidates for prime minister, but negotiations could last for weeks or longer. Prime Minister Abadi could return under some scenarios, but the makeup of the governing coalition will determine its viability and freedom of action on controversial issues.

Iraq's election was carried out without major security disruptions, and most leading factions and figures have made statements accepting the somewhat unexpected result. While exhibiting lower turnout than in the past, Iraq's 2018 COR election was "largely peaceful and orderly," and the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq has called on election officials "to act expeditiously in order to seriously address all complaints." Prime Minister Abadi has expressed his desire to see U.S. and other international military support for Iraq's security forces continue. Sa'irun leader Muqtada al Sadr remains critical of U.S. policy toward Iraq and the broader Middle East, but has not called for the immediate withdrawal of foreign forces. It remains to be seen whether aany coalition government featuring Sadr's movement and/or members of the Fatah or State of Law coalitions might seek to substantially revise or reverse current patterns of U.S.-Iraq cooperation. Senior officials from Iran and the United States have visited Iraq in the wake of the election and consulted with leading political figures.